1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:08,479 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Well, one of the 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: reasons offered by the administration as to go to war 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,639 Speaker 1: with Iran is potentially regime change. A lot of folks 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: are asking is that possible? Who would ignite that regime 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: change and who perhaps would assume power? I think our 6 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: next guest has some views on that. Ali Safabi. He 7 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: is a member of Iran's parliament in exile, the National 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: Council of Resistance of Iran, and he's also a president 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: of Near Eastern Policy Research, which is a consulting in 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: policy analysis firm in Washington, DC. Ali, thanks so much 11 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: for joining us here. Is regime change possible with these 12 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: events in Iran over the last several days. 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 2: It's all good to be with you. Well, regime change 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 2: is indeed possible, There's no doubt about it. Because you 15 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 2: have a nation that has been suppressed for forty seven years. 16 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: You have had one hundred thousand dissidents of the main 17 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 2: Ranian opposition, the major diner have executed by this regime. 18 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 2: And you saw this past January thousands were slaughtered, and 19 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 2: of course we have seen the same thing happening in 20 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty nineteen twenty seventeen. And yes, the 21 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 2: Iranian people are very determined, despite the cost that it 22 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: has exacted on them, to overthrow this regime. But that said, we, 23 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 2: as the resistance movement that has been fighting this regime 24 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 2: for forty seven years and the previous regime, the Shaws 25 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 2: regime since nineteen sixty five, do not believe that change 26 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 2: would come from the air. The change will not come 27 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: throue foreign intervention. Change must come from within Iran, underground, indigenous, 28 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 2: organic by the Iranian people, and by a very potent 29 00:01:55,320 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: and structured resistance within Iran itself. But yes, change is 30 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: indeed possible. I think the Iranian regime is at the 31 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 2: end of the line, that their economy is bankrupt, the dull, 32 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 2: their currency is in a free fall, there's massive unemployment, 33 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 2: systemic corruption, and the regional policy has been defeated. So yes, 34 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 2: indeed changes is at hand. 35 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: So President Trump called on the Iranian people to rise 36 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 1: up and topple their government. Do you expect that the 37 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: Iranian people are prepared to do that? 38 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 2: I believe that the Iranian people are very independent minded people, 39 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: as has been demonstrated throughout our history, and they're not 40 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 2: going to rise up or sit down on a call 41 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:48,399 Speaker 2: of anybody from the outside, they will decide to rise 42 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 2: up when they think the time is right. Obviously, at 43 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 2: this current moment, with the bombs dropping all over Iran, 44 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: Iranian people are understandably careful not to do anything to 45 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 2: get themselves into harm's way. After all, there's a war ongoing. 46 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 2: But as Missus Rajavi said the other day, that they 47 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 2: should try to take care, take care of especially those 48 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 2: who've been injured. And she also called on the all 49 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 2: parties involved to exercise restraint when it comes to Iranian 50 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: infrastructure and civilian areas. And yes, they will rise up, 51 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 2: but in a methodic way, and this has to be organized. 52 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: To expect that when bombs are dropping for millions of 53 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: one is to come to the streets, it's just very unrealistic. 54 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: No similar situation. You have seen people coming up. But 55 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 2: once these conflicts of size and given that they're in 56 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 2: regime is weakened tremendously with the loss of harmony, which 57 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 2: as Missus Rajavi said yesterday, means the end of the 58 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 2: religious tyranny in Iran, they will come out, but it 59 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: has to be an organized fashion. Nothing will happen spontaneously. 60 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: In what ways has the current conflict altered the domestic, political, 61 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: or social environment inside Iran? 62 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 2: Well, the very good question. Well, I think it has 63 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 2: demonstrated to the people of Iran that the possibility to 64 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 2: toppling this regime is much greater than any other time 65 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: in the history of our nation. And it has also 66 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 2: shown that the Ranian people, in order to topple this regime, 67 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 2: they must get organized. And I think if you look 68 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 2: at the trend of events in Iran, particularly since twenty seventeen, 69 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 2: you see that happening. Previously, there were protests by let's 70 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: say some sectors of Iranian society. But what happened on 71 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 2: in January you had basically all walks of life in Iran, 72 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: from students to bazarmor chains, to oil workers, to farmers, nurses, 73 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 2: you name it, we're out on the streets. And this 74 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 2: wasn't just in one or two cities. It was in 75 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: four hundred different cities in thirty one provinces. And interestingly, 76 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 2: the slogans were all universal, one as to the dictator 77 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: too down with the oppressor, whether the Shah or the leader, 78 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: meaning that they're Anian people having learned the lessons of 79 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 2: the nineteen seventy nine revolution when an impostor Romani came 80 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 2: in from abroad and stole that revolution. They are not 81 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 2: very clear that I they know exactly what they want. 82 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 2: They don't want relics of the past, and they don't 83 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: want the current regime. They wanted to look to the future, 84 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 2: which is a democratic future, a republican form of government, 85 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 2: which is why mister Rajavi and the NCRO announced the 86 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 2: formation of a provisional government that would hold free and 87 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 2: fair elections in Iran within six months of the Milor's 88 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: overthrow to elect the Constituted Assembly, whose members elected by 89 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 2: the Iran people would draft the new constitution for a 90 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: new republic and lead Iran into the twenty first century 91 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 2: towards a glorious future which we are very hopeful for 92 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 2: and we have fought for for forty seven years. So 93 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 2: this is a very realistic objective, very realistic future, and 94 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,159 Speaker 2: it will come. It just takes time, it takes effort, 95 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 2: it takes sacrifice, and Iranian people are ready. They're ready, 96 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 2: and of course the organized resistance also is ready. Bear 97 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 2: in mind that before the US attacked Commanies Compound a 98 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: week earlier, the amicare resistance units attacked the two hundred 99 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: and fifty of them, and they had no drones and 100 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 2: they had no Tomahawk missiles. They attacked it underground, while 101 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: of course we lost about one hundred and some arrested, 102 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 2: but the remaining members of that two hundred and fifty 103 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 2: assault force returned safety. So there is organized opposition to 104 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 2: do this. 105 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: Mister Sabai. The Ayatola Kamani was targeted and killed by 106 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: the US military. How important of an event is that 107 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: and what is next for the clerical leadership of Iran? 108 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 2: Given that, Sesson, well that that was a very very 109 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: important development. In a sense, it beheaded the regime, eliminated 110 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: if you were the lynch pin of the clerical establishment. 111 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 2: And I do not believe despite the pretenses that you 112 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 2: see these days a three man council trying to appoint 113 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: his successor, that's not going to happen. Kameny's stature and 114 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 2: the power emerge for him being at the hand for 115 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 2: thirty nine years, nobody can replace him. And I think 116 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: in the weeks ahead you will see some sort of 117 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: if you will, I don't want to call it disintegration, 118 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 2: but fragmentation within the regime. Itself, and of course to 119 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 2: the extent that the organized opposition and the Irenay people 120 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 2: can get better organized take actions that is needed to 121 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: be taken. I think change will come. Change will come, 122 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 2: and I must say that a firm policy vis a 123 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 2: Therney regime is helpful to the Rainy people. Remember that 124 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: for forty seven years the West offered concessions to this regime. 125 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 2: Even now some countries are not willing to call for 126 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: the overthrow of the Iranian regime. The British haven't yet 127 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 2: put the IOGC on the terrorist list, and so I 128 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 2: think that's what the watershed moment, and we are now 129 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 2: in an entirely new phase, a new, if you will, 130 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 2: a strategic situation. 131 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: Yep Ali, thank you so much, Sir Ali Savabi. He 132 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: is the member of Iran's Parliament exile, that is, the 133 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: National Council of Resistance of Iran. With the reporting from 134 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: what may come next for the leadership of Iran. But 135 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: again the military operation continues and mister Sabavi is saying 136 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: this will take time.