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Speaker 2: We release our guide for twenty twenty six. Twenty five
Speaker 2: percent is the midpoint of the growth that we expect
Speaker 2: to see in twenty twenty six is industry leading growth,
Speaker 2: and that's a continuation of the momentum that we see
Speaker 2: as well in twenty twenty five. By the way, thinking
Speaker 2: about the Q four that we also release, the revenue
Speaker 2: that we deliver in the fourth quarter, we deliver forty
Speaker 2: three percent growth, so it's a continuation of that strong
Speaker 2: momentum getting into twenty twenty six. What is driving that
Speaker 2: is the similar drivers, the key growth products that we have.
Speaker 2: Of course, the Increding is getting all the attention, but
Speaker 2: we have a breadth of our portfolio across all over
Speaker 2: therapeutic areas that will continue to drive that growth into
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. Thinking about the drivers that you mentioned,
Speaker 2: we talk about the Increding portfolio both in the US
Speaker 2: and or US. You see that the market in the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter on the antiobesity space grew eighty five percent,
Speaker 2: and we actually outpaced that growth in the fourth quarter,
Speaker 2: and very strong growth as well in type two diabetes
Speaker 2: seventeen percent. So we continue to drive that growth into
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. You mentioned as well the introduction of
Speaker 2: our four ripon. Very excited. We submitted for regulatory approval
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter and we expect to have regulatory
Speaker 2: reaction as early as Q two, so we expect to
Speaker 2: see as well our oral pill coming into the market,
Speaker 2: a very exciting opportunity to expand the market. In addition
Speaker 2: to that, we are expanding through access as well with
Speaker 2: the agreement that we have with signing with the administration
Speaker 2: in Medicare that we expect not later than July, will
Speaker 2: provide access to Medicare patients more than forty million patients
Speaker 2: that could benefit to have access to antiobesity medications as well.
Speaker 2: So very exciting time, very exciting opportunity ahead of us.
Speaker 1: So, Lucas, there's a lot to dig into there, and
Speaker 1: you mentioned, of course the breath of your portfolio, but
Speaker 1: investors really really care about the pill at this moment,
Speaker 1: so I have to ask a little bit more about that.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that potential two Q launch. Is there a
Speaker 1: possibility that this outlook that you gave this morning gets
Speaker 1: upgraded as we start to see some of the uptake there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's early days at this time, we just put
Speaker 2: the guide out there. We have a very thorough process,
Speaker 2: and we feel good about the guy that we have
Speaker 2: in place for twenty twenty six is still very compelling.
Speaker 2: By the way, twenty five percent there is no single
Speaker 2: pharmat company growing at this space, So we feel about good.
Speaker 2: We can see throughout the year if we see that
Speaker 2: continue to trend in the positive direction. But at this time,
Speaker 2: given all the variables that we have, we feel good
Speaker 2: about the guy that we have in place.
Speaker 1: And so let's talk about the timeline a little bit
Speaker 1: more here. You and I spoke a few weeks ago
Speaker 1: at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. You said that you're
Speaker 1: on track for that second quarter approval. You reiterated that
Speaker 1: timeline today, of course, pending FDA approval. Let's talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about the f There's been some challenges there.
Speaker 1: There's been some turnover. Do you see that potentially impacting
Speaker 1: the timeline and all.
Speaker 2: At this time, we are engaging with the fdaight and
Speaker 2: we feel good about the progress. And so the time
Speaker 2: that I cover in JP Morgan that you alluded is
Speaker 2: still consistent with our expectation that we expect to see
Speaker 2: regulator reaction as early as Q two.
Speaker 1: All right, well, we're almost in the second quarter, so
Speaker 1: we'll keep looking for updates there. I want to talk
Speaker 1: about pricing as well, because you take a look at
Speaker 1: this headline, you see global pricing declines in the low
Speaker 1: to mid teens. This caught my eye because of course
Speaker 1: Novo Nordis came out with that early release yesterday and
Speaker 1: then they said on their earnings call this morning that
Speaker 1: they're facing unprecedented pricing pressure this year. So talk us
Speaker 1: through that, what that means for Eli Lilly and how
Speaker 1: you plan to make that up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, actually the guy twenty five percent is encompassing
Speaker 2: as well. The price step was set down that we
Speaker 2: have in twenty twenty six, so that's included in our
Speaker 2: guide for twenty twenty six. Already. When you think about
Speaker 2: the variables, they are all actually out there. We talk
Speaker 2: about the agreement with the administration, those prices are public.
Speaker 2: We talk about direct to patients that we adjust the
Speaker 2: price by fifty dollars across all our presentations. That's actually
Speaker 2: already implemented in the marketplaces of last December. And then
Speaker 2: we have the Medicare access that again we have a
Speaker 2: price of two forty five. That's also public price public
Speaker 2: information out there as well, So those variables are out there.
Speaker 2: There is no news from my perspective in terms of
Speaker 2: the pricing dynamics. Is still going to be a price
Speaker 2: erosion versus last year. That's included in our guide. Very
Speaker 2: strong volume growth that we expect to see that will
Speaker 2: more than upset that to get to that twenty five
Speaker 2: percent that we have in our guide.
Speaker 1: Well, the dynamic is really interesting between pricing and volume.
Speaker 1: Another line and you're earnings release that caught my eye
Speaker 1: was that you take a look at US revenue increased
Speaker 1: forty three percent. That was driven by a fifty percent
Speaker 1: increase in volume, but it was partially offset by that
Speaker 1: seven percent decrease due to those lower realized prices. So
Speaker 1: is the hope that you know, you think about some
Speaker 1: of the things in the pipeline, the pill being one
Speaker 1: of them, is the hope that that's going to help
Speaker 1: expand the market and thus expand volume as you see
Speaker 1: that price erosion.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's very important. As you mentioned again, when you
Speaker 2: think about the volume growth and the volume opportunity. In particular,
Speaker 2: studying with both obesity and tie two diabetes, we have
Speaker 2: a large opportunity. Both segments are really large, in particular
Speaker 2: anti bysidium medications. You're talking about more than one hundred
Speaker 2: million patients in the US that we can serve, and
Speaker 2: then globally there is another nine hundred million patients that
Speaker 2: we can serve as well. Nowadays we are serving low
Speaker 2: single digits, so the penetration is low, so there is
Speaker 2: a big opportunity to continue to drive that growth. The
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, I mentioned that the market in the US
Speaker 2: grew eighty five five percent, so there is a very
Speaker 2: big runway to continue to drive growth into the future.
Speaker 2: That that's reflected on our volume growth expectation for twenty
Speaker 2: twenty six.
Speaker 1: And you touched on this a little bit, Lucas, but
Speaker 1: I do want to talk a little bit more about
Speaker 1: MFN pricing there what would impact would you expect that
Speaker 1: to have on your way laws sales this year?
Speaker 2: So the impact is included in that guy that I
Speaker 2: talk about again, the load to meetings in price erosion
Speaker 2: that that's reflected in that price is in that price
Speaker 2: a guy that we have for the year, and the prices,
Speaker 2: as I mentioned, are public the two forty five for
Speaker 2: the government segment and the public prices that we have
Speaker 2: in direct to patients, including the adjustment that we did
Speaker 2: for fifty dollars. So all these public prices, we have
Speaker 2: been very disciplined on our pricing strategy. You can look
Speaker 2: at the results quarter on quarter that we maintained that
Speaker 2: discipline throughout twenty twenty five, and my covenment is to
Speaker 2: maintain that price discipline getting into twenty twenty six as well.
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, and I do I should bring
Speaker 1: up Medicare access as well, because expanding Medicare access that
Speaker 1: is certainly top of mind for investors. And I'd love
Speaker 1: to hear from your perspective, how do you see that
Speaker 1: wider access impacting the market? And again when it comes
Speaker 1: to the pill, would you expect that to be available
Speaker 1: to Medicare patients at launch.
Speaker 2: That's a great point of course, again not only to
Speaker 2: repartite again set Bound, but also or Fotillipon will be
Speaker 2: available in the Medicare segment once that access is provided,
Speaker 2: so both molecules will have access to Medicare patients and
Speaker 2: the patients will pay actually fifty dollars will be the
Speaker 2: copy that the patients will be paying for both medicines,
Speaker 2: So great opportunity to drive access. I mentioned forty million patients.
Speaker 2: As always, penetrations will built over time, so studying off July,
Speaker 2: hopefully we will see that penetration growing over time, so
Speaker 2: that will build not only in twenty twenty six, but
Speaker 2: also getting into twenty twenty seven as well.
Speaker 1: And Lucas, before I let you go, one thing that
Speaker 1: has changed since you and I spoke a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago back in January is that your ZEP bound
Speaker 1: QuickPen and actually one approval last month. As I understand it,
Speaker 1: that product is tied to your deal that you have
Speaker 1: with the Trump administration. So talk us through the role
Speaker 1: out here. Do you plan to make QuickPen available to
Speaker 1: all patients or would it only be an option for
Speaker 1: those Medicare patients.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great news. By the way, I'm glad that
Speaker 2: you brought it up because you asked me about the
Speaker 2: quick pen approval. And again it has been three weeks
Speaker 2: and now we have the quick pen approval and we're
Speaker 2: planning to bring it to the market within the next
Speaker 2: thirty days, so that will bring another option. Of course,
Speaker 2: again we will are discussing about the channel segments you mentioned,
Speaker 2: Medicare being one of them, but also we will bring
Speaker 2: it in direct to patients so that we would have
Speaker 2: more broad access. Is another opportunity, another option for patients
Speaker 2: that will have the opportunity to get to the QuickPen device.
Speaker 2: By the way, the quickpent device is one that we
Speaker 2: have available in many countries Gloali with a great acceptance
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: All right, Lucas, thank you so much. I know it's
Speaker 1: a busy morning, so really appreciate you taking the time
Speaker 1: for us.