Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Fantasy Pros
Speaker 1: and Betting Pros, and I'm going to run through my
Speaker 1: favorite NFL player props. Coming off a four and two
Speaker 1: week for fifteen and five over the last three weeks,
Speaker 1: and on the season, we are fifty eight and thirty nine,
Speaker 1: just to shade under sixty percent. Going well so far,
Speaker 1: Let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling going
Speaker 1: into Week fifteen. And by the way, Week fifteen means
Speaker 1: no more bye weeks, full sixteen game slates every week
Speaker 1: from now through the end of the regular season, which
Speaker 1: means more player props to choose from. So let's get
Speaker 1: into this week's selections, and we're going to start with
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point five
Speaker 1: passing yards. Since being reinstated as the Colts starting quarterback
Speaker 1: in Week ten, Ryan has failed to clear this number
Speaker 1: in four out of four games, and he has not
Speaker 1: come within twenty yards of it in those last four games.
Speaker 1: Ryan's averaging two hundred and sixteen point eight passing yards
Speaker 1: over his last four starts. I am happy to bet
Speaker 1: against the thirty seven year old well passed prime Matt
Speaker 1: Ryan putting up big numbers in Minnesota this weekend, and look,
Speaker 1: the Coults are not going to abandon the running game.
Speaker 2: I just don't see Ryan clearing a number this big.
Speaker 1: So Matt Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point
Speaker 1: five passing yards, We're gonna go over with Josh Allen
Speaker 1: on one and a.
Speaker 2: Half touchdown passes.
Speaker 1: I am fading all Josh Allen skepticism, and I'm also
Speaker 1: fading concerns about the weather in Buffalo this weekend. Alan
Speaker 1: has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of thirteen games
Speaker 1: this season. But Alan's going to be facing the Miami
Speaker 1: defense that he torched for four hundred passing yards and
Speaker 1: two touchdowns back in Week three. And as of Thursday afternoon,
Speaker 1: DraftKings was offering a generous minus one oh five on
Speaker 1: the over for Josh Allen one point five passing touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I think we might even get a better deal on
Speaker 1: game day after they show camera shots from Buffalo with
Speaker 1: the snow flying. People react to whether they overreact to weather,
Speaker 1: and I think that's what's going to happen here.
Speaker 2: Look, it's not going to be a blizzard.
Speaker 1: Yes, there's gonna be snow in Buffalo, but it's not
Speaker 1: gonna be anything that's going to affect passing conditions. And
Speaker 1: the win is wind is going to be ten to
Speaker 1: fifteen miles an hour, which is not an impactful wind whatsoever.
Speaker 1: So I think this number could drop because it fears
Speaker 1: about the weather, but those fears would be unfounded. So
Speaker 1: not only that, but this just in Josh Allen is
Speaker 1: good at football, and maybe this line reflects concerns about
Speaker 1: the status of Alan's right elbow. But he revealed on
Speaker 1: the Pat McAfee show this week that doctors initially told
Speaker 1: him that he would miss two to four weeks. That
Speaker 1: was six weeks ago. See, so he is past the points,
Speaker 1: past the range that doctors were initially concerned about. So
Speaker 1: even if he had been shut down for a while,
Speaker 1: he would have been back by now. And if the
Speaker 1: injury is affecting Alan's accuracy or velocity, I have not
Speaker 1: seen it while watching the Bills in recent weeks. So
Speaker 1: Josh Allen over one and a half touchdown passes Kareem
Speaker 1: Hunts under twenty four point five rushing yards. Hunt has
Speaker 1: failed to clear this number in five of his last
Speaker 1: eight games. He's averaged just six point one carries over
Speaker 1: that stretch. The Browns are up against a Ravens run
Speaker 1: defense that has faced the third fewest running back rushing
Speaker 1: attempts and has allowed the third fewest rushing yards to
Speaker 1: running backs this year. In the Week seven game between
Speaker 1: the Browns and Ravens, Kareem Hunt had five carries for
Speaker 1: four yards.
Speaker 2: So yes, I'm.
Speaker 1: Hitting the under here on Kareem Hunts twenty four point
Speaker 1: five rushing yards. I am hitting the over on Miles
Speaker 1: Sanders sixty nine point five rushing yards. Sanders has topped
Speaker 1: this number in eight of thirteen games this season and
Speaker 1: is averaging eighty two point two rushing yards per contest.
Speaker 1: Sanders has run for more than one hundred and forty
Speaker 1: yards in two of his last three games. Since Week eleven,
Speaker 1: the Bears run defense has been twenty eighth in DVA.
Speaker 1: Chicago gave up one hundred and twenty five rushing yards
Speaker 1: to Packers running backs when we last saw the Bears
Speaker 1: two weeks ago before they're Week fourteen. By the week
Speaker 1: before that, in Week twelve, they gave up one hundred
Speaker 1: and eleven rushing yards to Falcons running backs. Oh excuse me,
Speaker 1: that was Week eleven. In Week twelve, they gave up
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty three yards to Jets running back.
Speaker 1: So the Eagles offensive line is number one in the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros internal Power rankings and the Bears defensive front
Speaker 1: is number thirty two. This is an epic mismatch and
Speaker 1: I expect Miles Sanders to take full advantage. Bet the
Speaker 1: over on sixty nine point five rushing yards. I'll get
Speaker 1: to the rest of my picks in just a moment,
Speaker 1: but first, do you want to track all of your
Speaker 1: wagers in one place? You should check out the Betting
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Speaker 1: All right, continuing on with the player props. David Montgomery
Speaker 1: over seventy seven point five rushing plus receiving yards. The
Speaker 1: Bears number two running back Khalil Herbert has missed three
Speaker 1: games with a hip injury, and.
Speaker 2: He'll be out again Sunday.
Speaker 1: In the three games he has missed so far, Montgomery
Speaker 1: has averaged nineteen point three opportunities, which is to say
Speaker 1: Carrie's plus targets and one hundred point three yards from
Speaker 1: scrimmage per game. And the Bears have been the NFL's
Speaker 1: run heaviest team this season. You know, I think Monty
Speaker 1: could beat seventy seven and a half yards just with
Speaker 1: rushing alone, but we also get to include his receiving yardage.
Speaker 1: And over his last three games, Montgomery has been targeted
Speaker 1: fourteen times and has ten catches for ninety four yards,
Speaker 1: So I think he clears seventy seven point five rushing
Speaker 1: plus receiving yards. Mike Gisiki under seventeen point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: I generally do not like playing numbers this small, but
Speaker 1: in the case of Gasiki, I'm gonna do it. He
Speaker 1: has not caught a pass in any of his last
Speaker 1: three games. Over his last five games, Kasiki has five
Speaker 1: catches for thirty four yards on nine targets. That's over
Speaker 1: five games. Averaging well under ten yards per game hasn't.
Speaker 1: Let's see Gasiki's snap shares the last two weeks twenty
Speaker 1: percent and thirty nine percent. He's not even getting under
Speaker 1: the field that much. And Kasiki is going to be
Speaker 1: facing a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed the ninth
Speaker 1: fewest receiving yards to tight ends Mike Kisiki under seventeen
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. I like Alamide Zakias Falcons
Speaker 1: wide receiver under thirty one point five receiving yard cards.
Speaker 1: Zakias has finished below this number in five of his
Speaker 1: last seven games, and through the first eleven weeks of
Speaker 1: the season, Zakayas did not see more than four targets
Speaker 1: in any game. The Falcons have been extremely conservative on offense,
Speaker 1: having rum the ball on fifty six percent of their
Speaker 1: offensive snaps this year, and I think they're going to
Speaker 1: be run heavy this week with their rookie quarterback Desmond
Speaker 1: Ritter making his first NFL start. Ritter is probably a
Speaker 1: better runner than he is a passer, and I'm inclined
Speaker 1: to bet all passing and receiving unders for the Falcons
Speaker 1: this week. So Alumdi Zakayas under thirty one point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards and finally, Justin Jefferson over ninety three point
Speaker 1: five receiving yards.
Speaker 2: Jefferson has entered Cooper Cup territory for me. And last
Speaker 2: year with.
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup, I was just betting the overs on him
Speaker 1: every week, no matter what the number was. I'm to
Speaker 1: that point with Jefferson, who now has exactly fifteen hundred
Speaker 1: receiving yards on the season and we still have four
Speaker 1: games to go. He's averaging one hundred and fifteen point
Speaker 1: four receiving yards per contest. He has cleared this number
Speaker 1: ninety three point five receiving yards in nine of thirteen games.
Speaker 1: Jefferson is averaging ten point nine targets for the season
Speaker 1: and eleven point six targets over his last five games.
Speaker 1: He has twenty seven catches over his last three games,
Speaker 1: nine catches a game over his last three. Never Mind
Speaker 1: that the Vikings are facing a Colts defense that has
Speaker 1: allowed the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this year,
Speaker 1: Jefferson is basically matchup proof at this point, I am
Speaker 1: hitting the over on ninety three point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: So just to recap all of this week's bets, Matt
Speaker 1: Ryan under two hundred and fifty four point five passing yards,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen over one point five touchdown passes, Kareem Hunts
Speaker 1: under twenty four point five rushing yards, Miles sand over
Speaker 1: sixty nine point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over seventy
Speaker 1: seven point five rushing plus receiving yards, Mikasiki under seventeen
Speaker 1: point five receiving yards, alamde z Achaius under thirty one
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards, and Justin Jefferson over ninety three
Speaker 1: point five receiving yards. That's gonna do it for this
Speaker 1: week's Player Props video. Good luck to all of you
Speaker 1: this week with all your wagers, and we will see
Speaker 1: you again next week