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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: here with Bo mcbrair. The three week FedEx Cup playoffs

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Speaker 1: begin on Thursday with the FedEx Saint Jude Classic, and

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Speaker 1: we are going to preview that tournament from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 1: But first, let's quickly recap the final event of the

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour regular season, the Windham Championship, and I can

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Speaker 1: promise you a very quick recap because this one was

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Speaker 1: a blowout. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour victory,

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Speaker 1: winning by six shots. He opened with rounds of sixty

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Speaker 1: three and sixty two, shot a sixty five on Saturday

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Speaker 1: to carry a big lead into the final round, and

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Speaker 1: then he birdied five straight holes on the front nine

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Speaker 1: to pretty much eliminate any drama. Young led by nine

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Speaker 1: shots at one point he put it on cruise control

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Speaker 1: on the back nine. He finished twenty two under par

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Speaker 1: Mac Meisner won the race for second place. He was

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Speaker 1: sixteen under. Mark Hubbard and Alex Norin tied for third

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Speaker 1: at fifteen under. Cameron Young became the one thousandth different

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Speaker 1: player to ever win a PGA Tour event. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of a fun stat bo. It's kind of hard to

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Speaker 1: believe the twenty eight year old Young had not won before.

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Speaker 1: It's a very good player who's contended in a bunch

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Speaker 1: of different events in recent years, and he's shown up

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Speaker 1: in majors. Cam Young was runner up at the Open

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Speaker 1: Championship in twenty twenty two. He's had a couple of

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Speaker 1: top tens at the Open, also at the Masters, couple

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Speaker 1: of top tens, finished fourth at this year's US Open,

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Speaker 1: and he's had a top five finish at the PGA Championship.

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Speaker 1: And now Cameron Young is ranked twenty first in the world.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts on Cameron Young's victory at the wind.

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Speaker 2: Him It was really impressive. He's got all the game.

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Speaker 2: I think the mental side of it has been eluding

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Speaker 2: him for a while, but it's always been it's always

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Speaker 2: been the short game in the putting that has really

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Speaker 2: taken him down a notch or two. And he's always

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Speaker 2: kind of scored well on Sundays in all those runner

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Speaker 2: up finishes that he's had, so it's no wonder that

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Speaker 2: he finally puts together a great round of ball striking.

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Speaker 2: He gained a ton of strokes off the tee and

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Speaker 2: on approach, but he gained tons of strokes on putting

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Speaker 2: as well, and it was mainly because he was hitting

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Speaker 2: it so close on approach. He was hitting it so

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Speaker 2: close on approach. I think the longest putt he made

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Speaker 2: all week was thirty five feet, which which means he

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Speaker 2: was sticking it in there real close and making the

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Speaker 2: putts that mattered. He made a lot of birdies sixty

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Speaker 2: three sixty two to start the tournament, pretty much put

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Speaker 2: everybody on notice that they're going to have to score

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Speaker 2: like crazy to keep up with him. But that course

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Speaker 2: was playing tough. Sedgefield was playing pretty fast, it was

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Speaker 2: playing difficult with all the undulation on the greens. The

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Speaker 2: moisture didn't really slow the course down as much as

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Speaker 2: that it made the rough even more penal cam young,

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Speaker 2: all the talent in the world, I kind of think

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Speaker 2: that it was meant to be where his first win

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Speaker 2: was gonna make him the one thousandth unique champion on

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Speaker 2: the PGA Tour. That's really cool, and he's still really young. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: growing up as a son of a teaching professional, kind

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Speaker 2: of like Justin Thomas Is, there's a lot of expectations

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Speaker 2: growing up for that person to become a professional golfer

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Speaker 2: and one that wins, and where we've seen JT win

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Speaker 2: a lot over the years, Cameron Young has been oh

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Speaker 2: so close, and now the door just got blown off.

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Speaker 2: And with how good he is playing now, we're definitely

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Speaker 2: looking at him host in his home state, possibly making

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Speaker 2: that Ryder Cup team at Bethpage Black in next month.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna be really interesting to see if he can

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Speaker 2: parlay this success at the Windham into the playoffs to

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Speaker 2: get into that team, because that would be really cool.

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Speaker 2: Team USA needs all the help it can get against Europe,

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Speaker 2: even at home this year. Cam Young being the New Yorker,

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Speaker 2: that'll be huge for the Team USA if he can

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Speaker 2: make it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, see if Young can keep the momentum going into

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Speaker 1: the FedEx Cup playoffs. And we will get to the

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Speaker 1: betting preview for the first event of the playoffs, the

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship in just a moment.

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Speaker 2: But first download the free Betting pros app for iOS

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Speaker 1: The top seventy FedEx Cup point earners have qualified for

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. That number is down from last year when

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Speaker 1: the top one hundred qualified, and the top fifty finishers

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Speaker 1: this week will advance to next week's BMW Championship. From there,

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Speaker 1: the top thirty advance to the Tour Championship, and these

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Speaker 1: events have some big purses, especially the season ending Tour

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Speaker 1: Championship with its top prize of ten million dollars. The

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship is a no cut event.

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Speaker 1: Everyone plays seventy two holes. The tournament will be played

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Speaker 1: at TPC South Wind in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a par

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Speaker 1: seventy course measuring seven thousand, two hundred and eighty eight yards.

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Speaker 1: This course was built on a former dairy farm.

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Speaker 2: Bow Oh, that's right up your alley.

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Speaker 1: Scenery includes a couple of grain silos in a windmill.

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Speaker 1: No word on whether they have good cheese curds on site,

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Speaker 1: but the greatest defense mechanisms at TPC south Wind are

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Speaker 1: water and thick rough water comes into play on quite

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Speaker 1: a few holes. It's especially prominent on the eleventh, fourteenth,

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Speaker 1: and eighteenth holes. The eleventh is a par three with

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Speaker 1: an island green, and it's listed at one hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty eight yards, which makes it about thirty yards longer

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Speaker 1: than the island hole at TPC Sawgrass. Fourteenth is a

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Speaker 1: two hundred and five yard par three with water in

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Speaker 1: front of the green and to the right of the green.

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Speaker 1: The eighteenth is a four hundred and fifty three yard

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Speaker 1: par four with water running down the left side of

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Speaker 1: the hole. Missed the Zouja grass fairways and you'll often

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Speaker 1: find thick chewy Bermuda rough and TPC south Wind as

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Speaker 1: tight fairways. Of course also has small firm Bermuda greens.

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Speaker 1: The average approach shot at TPC south Wind is from

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Speaker 1: right around one hundred and sixty yards out. That's five

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Speaker 1: or six yards closer than the average approach distance on tour.

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Speaker 1: Adeki Matsuyama is the defending champ. He finished seventeen under

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Speaker 1: power last year, two shots better than Xanderschoffle and Victor Hovland.

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Speaker 1: Lucas Glover won here in twenty twenty three, finishing fifteen

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Speaker 1: under par and beating Patrick can't Lay in a playoff.

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Speaker 1: Will Zlatorres was minus fifteen and beat Stepstrak in a

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Speaker 1: playoff in twenty twenty two, and Tony Fino beat Cam

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Speaker 1: Smith in a playoff to win here in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Seems like an event that draws a lot of playoff finishes.

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Speaker 1: Both of those guys feed on Campsmith were twenty under

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Speaker 1: par in twenty twenty one. The weather forecast this week

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Speaker 1: calls for hot, sticky conditions, no surprise for Memphis this

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Speaker 1: time of year, high temperatures in the mid nineties all

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Speaker 1: four days with mostly sunny conditions. There's no rain in

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Speaker 1: the forecast, and the wind should be light throughout the tournament. Bow.

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Speaker 1: What's it going to take to win a TPC South.

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Speaker 2: One Accuracy and consistency, and if you are off, you

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Speaker 2: have to be able to make a par. Avoid bogie,

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Speaker 2: avoid double bogie. Double bogie avoidance here is huge because

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Speaker 2: these greens, not only are they small and firm, but

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Speaker 2: they put fast and fast Bermuda is tricky. It throws

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Speaker 2: a whole monkey wrench into a lot of stat models

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Speaker 2: unless you filter for fast Bermuda greens. Because this course

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Speaker 2: is right around too or average for length arounds just

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Speaker 2: over seventy two hundred yards. It's really narrow, it's really tight,

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Speaker 2: and if you miss your spots, you're not going to

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Speaker 2: have a good time making par, very penal rough off

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Speaker 2: the fairways if you miss, and then if you miss

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Speaker 2: the greens to be able to scramble and get up

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Speaker 2: and down, because this is just everything about this course

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Speaker 2: is tricky, but good shots are rewarded here. So if

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Speaker 2: you're somebody at the top of this leaderboard, or if

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Speaker 2: you're something somebody's trying to sneak into that top fifty

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Speaker 2: to play the BMW next week, it's going to have

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Speaker 2: to be hitting quality shots all four days, no blow

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Speaker 2: up holes, because this course will take away what you

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Speaker 2: give it. And that's why you see good winning scores

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Speaker 2: between twelve and eighteen under par and sometimes an outlier

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Speaker 2: at twenty under par. But judging by hot and humid conditions,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a grind for a lot of

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Speaker 2: these guys. But that doesn't mean that there's not gonna

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Speaker 2: be a few guys that go pretty low. If you

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Speaker 2: have good shots going in there, there's gonna be some

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Speaker 2: good scores out there for top seventy. I think it's

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Speaker 2: a really great opening salvo to the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: It is, indeed, And if you hit fairways and greens,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have birdie luck. Yes, so you will get

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Speaker 1: penalized by you know, the roth in the water, But

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Speaker 1: there are birdy opportunities here for sure. And we will

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Speaker 1: get to the odds in just a moment, right after

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at the odds for the FedEx

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Speaker 1: Saint Jude Championship. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as

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Speaker 1: of Monday afternoon. Scottie Scheffler opens as an overwhelming favorite

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Speaker 1: at plus two point eighty. No surprise there. Rory McElroy

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Speaker 1: is skipping this one. He's the only player in the

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Speaker 1: top seventy to skip it out. That's okay. He gets

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Speaker 1: a free pass to the BMW Championship next week. Xanders

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Speaker 1: Schoffley is plus sixteen hundred, Justin Thomas plus twenty two hundred,

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood plus twenty five hundred, Ludwig Oberg plus twenty

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Speaker 1: eight hundred at plus three thousand, our Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Hovland,

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Speaker 1: Russell Henley Patrick Cantley and Colin Morrikawa, Cameron Young, Sandburns

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Speaker 1: and Corey Conners are plus thirty five hundred and at

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Speaker 1: plus four thousand wee have Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Hedeki Matziama,

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Speaker 1: Sepstraca and Harris English. Who is worth considering from this group? Bo?

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Speaker 1: And what are we doing with Scotty at such short odds?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's been a few weeks, but we're going to

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Speaker 2: do the Live Scotty. The Live Scotty is going to

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Speaker 2: be really fun to play this week because if he

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Speaker 2: gets off to a slower start, which he hasn't played

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Speaker 2: this course particularly well, because faster Bermuda greens, when you

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Speaker 2: hit that filter on the model Scotty Scheffler goes down

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Speaker 2: to the very bottom of this field. In putting, it's

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Speaker 2: quite remarkable. He's having the best putting season of his

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Speaker 2: entire career and it still shows struggling on Bermuda greens

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Speaker 2: that are running fast on faster than twelve on the stemp.

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Speaker 2: These greens will be running twelve on the stemp. They're Bermuda,

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Speaker 2: they're tricky, they're undulating, they're fast, They're so fast, and

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Speaker 2: I think that Scotty still has everything else to win here,

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Speaker 2: but maybe he gets off to a slow start and

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Speaker 2: maybe we get some odds that slip to better than

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Speaker 2: five to one or even ten to one. That's when

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be betting on Scotty Scheffler. Don't give up

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Speaker 2: on him. Just don't bet him at plus two to eighty.

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Speaker 2: You're not going to get enough bang for your buck

220
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Speaker 2: to make it worthwhile watching him annihilate this field. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to start my card at Justin Thomas JT at

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Speaker 2: twenty two to one. It's a little short for my

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Speaker 2: liking because of his struggles off the tee lately. But

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Speaker 2: if you look at good drives gained, he's still in

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Speaker 2: the top ten in this field. If you're looking at

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Speaker 2: fairways gained, he's he's forty six. So there's a big

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Speaker 2: difference between how you measure what good tea shots look like.

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Speaker 2: Last week you wanted fairways gained because hardly anybody was

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Speaker 2: hitting driver off the tee at the window. On this course,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna see a lot of drivers. You're gonna see

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Speaker 2: three woods. You're not gonna see a lot of chopped

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Speaker 2: off shots. You're gonna be wanting to hit driver in

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Speaker 2: the fairway, and Justin Thomas has been pretty good overall

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Speaker 2: at putting himself in position for birdie looks on approach

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Speaker 2: and what that's where his bacon has made every year

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Speaker 2: of his career is Justin Thomas on approach is nails,

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Speaker 2: and he's one of the best scramblers on the tour.

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Speaker 2: Justin Thomas twenty two to one is where I'm going

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Speaker 2: to start, and it's also going to include Patrick can't

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Speaker 2: Let at thirty five to one, which I didn't think

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Speaker 2: I was going to be interested in can't lay this week,

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Speaker 2: but he's never won in my model, and thirty five

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Speaker 2: one's pretty durn good. So I think I'll take the

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Speaker 2: bait at Patrick Cantley and hope that he does something

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Speaker 2: anything this week unlike the rest of this season. And

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Speaker 2: then Sam Burns at forty to one. Sam Burns forty

247
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Speaker 2: to one, best putter in this field, annihilates Bermuda Greens.

248
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Speaker 2: He's so good at making birdies on these courses, the

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Speaker 2: exact parameters of this golf course in this event, it

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Speaker 2: just screams Sam Burns to me. So he's going to

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Speaker 2: get a pretty aggressive investment at forty to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Sam Burns was fifth here at TPC south Wind

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Speaker 1: last year, second in twenty twenty one, but he's finished

254
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Speaker 1: forty seventh or worse in each of his last three events.

255
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Speaker 1: I do wonder if he's hit a wall bow, so

256
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Speaker 1: I think I'll let you find out on that one.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna be with you on

258
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Speaker 1: Sam Burns with can't lay. I'm curious is his push?

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Speaker 1: I mean he is on the bubble for a Ryder

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Speaker 1: Cup spot. Is that part of it? Like, he has

261
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Speaker 1: to play well in the playoffs I think to get

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Speaker 1: in or he might get passed by the Ben Griffins

263
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Speaker 1: and Chris godder Ups and Cameron Yong's.

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Speaker 2: He's a guy that's also played well on firm, fast

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Speaker 2: golf courses that are in this kind of Bermuda setup.

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Speaker 2: He's struggled on bent grass, he struggled on your poana surfaces.

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Speaker 2: He struggled on on fescue, of course, but he's top

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Speaker 2: five and pretty much every stat category with how I

269
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Speaker 2: filtered it, top five in every single category. So yes,

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Speaker 2: he has all the motivation in the world to do

271
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Speaker 2: well in the playoffs and get onto that Ryder Cup team,

272
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Speaker 2: or at least solidify his spot on that team. But

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Speaker 2: I think he's got a chance to win here. He's

274
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Speaker 2: he's starting to turn his game around the last couple months.

275
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Speaker 2: Nothing noteworthy in results category, but I think that it's

276
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Speaker 2: just too good of a guy to ignore. Thirty five

277
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Speaker 2: to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned JT. When I've mentioned recent winners at

279
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Speaker 1: the FedEx Saint Jude, I cut it off right before

280
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Speaker 1: we got to Justin Thomas back in twenty twenty when

281
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Speaker 1: he won. He hasn't recorded a top ten in his

282
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Speaker 1: last three trips just TP Southwind And yeah, as you said,

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Speaker 1: I mean he's one hundred and sixty first in driving

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Speaker 1: accuracy and by the way, just ahead of him one

285
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Speaker 1: hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy Xander Schoffley. Yeah, so

286
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Speaker 1: he he did finish top ten at the Scottish Open

287
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Speaker 1: and the Open Championship last month, and was second at

288
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Speaker 1: the FedEx Saint Jude Championship last year. But yeah, the

289
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Speaker 1: one hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy not great, nor

290
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Speaker 1: is the one hundred and thirty second ranking in strokes

291
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Speaker 1: gained putting For Xander. What do you make of oberg

292
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Speaker 1: Bo He's had kind of an up and down season,

293
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Speaker 1: but he did play pretty well in the Scottish Open

294
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Speaker 1: and Open Championship. He was fortieth last year in the

295
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Speaker 1: FedEx Saint Jude that was his debut in this event.

296
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Speaker 1: Is he of value at twenty eight to one or no.

297
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Speaker 2: I think he's the opposite of a value. I think

298
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Speaker 2: he's completely inflated with how I modeled him. He's forty

299
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Speaker 2: eighth out of seventy in my model, and he's not

300
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Speaker 2: in the top ten in any category.

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Speaker 3: Zero.

302
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Speaker 2: This is a player who's the struggled immensely with mid

303
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Speaker 2: iron approach, which is completely opposite of what he did

304
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Speaker 2: in his big season last year. Off the t he's

305
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 2: been a little erratic and his short game has not improved.

306
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 2: He's fifty ninth in this field for scrambling. I am

307
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,520
Speaker 2: completely off overg I wouldn't even bet him if he

308
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 2: was at fifty to one. That I think this is.

309
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 2: This is going to be a struggle tournament for Ludwig Oelberg,

310
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Speaker 2: despite the talent. I think his game is in a

311
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 2: really bad place right now for the playoffs to start.

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Speaker 2: I could be wrong, but I'm not anywhere near him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned those approach shots. So I said the

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Speaker 1: average approach shot on this course was one hundred and

315
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Speaker 1: sixty yards, and there are a lot of approach shots

316
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Speaker 1: on this course to come from that one hundred and

317
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Speaker 1: fifty to one hundred and seventy five yard range. Yes,

318
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Speaker 1: Victor Hovlin finished second last year in this event, and

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Speaker 1: he certainly has the sort of ball striking profile we're

320
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 1: looking for. Oh. By the way, he is second in

321
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 1: strokes game on approach shots from one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: to one hundred and seventy five yards and second second

323
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Speaker 1: on strokes gain on approach overall. So Hoveland intrigues me here.

324
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Speaker 1: You know, the short game is always an adventure with

325
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Speaker 1: Victor Hoveland, But I'm pretty sure a striking is there too.

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Speaker 2: That the way he's played here over the years.

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Speaker 1: He has played it well. Russell Henley bow hasn't played

328
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 1: much lately, but he has four straight top tens dating

329
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Speaker 1: all the way back to the Memorial in late May.

330
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Speaker 1: He's only played four tournaments dating back to the Memorial.

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Speaker 1: Henley finished sixth in this event two years ago, and

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Speaker 1: as we've mentioned on the show many times, Henley tends

333
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Speaker 1: to do his best work on courses with Bermuda Greens.

334
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Speaker 1: Any interest in Matt Fitzpatrick top ten and four straight events,

335
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Speaker 1: top ten in this event three the last six years.

336
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Speaker 2: No thanks. He's done it two links courses followed by

337
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 2: two courses with very lackluster fields, straight fields. He's in

338
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,320
Speaker 2: the big boy waters now this week, and his short

339
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,000
Speaker 2: game is just not good enough here. He's a good shipper,

340
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 2: but his putting's not that great. He's off the tee.

341
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 2: He's been all over the place. I like him, but

342
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 2: in this field he's just kind of middle of the pack,

343
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 2: hanging around and maybe a top twenty bet. I don't

344
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,439
Speaker 2: think he cracks the top ten here this week, but

345
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 2: you mentioned a couple guys that I'm interested in. Victor Hovland.

346
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 2: Of course, everybody's gonna be on Hovland this week for

347
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 2: good reason. He's won here twice and he's been top

348
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 2: five every other time except for one miscut kind of

349
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 2: wedged in there. That's a horse for the course. We

350
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 2: do have some predictability with this tournament being at this

351
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 2: golf course every year for the playoffs, and Victor Hovelin

352
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 2: in the playoffs tends to be a different animal together,

353
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 2: so I will be watching that line I'm not in

354
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 2: on him yet, but the approach numbers are undeniable, and

355
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 2: he's just gonna put himself in so many scoring opportunities.

356
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 2: The question will be will he convert them? And can

357
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 2: he avoid the big number when he inevitably gets in

358
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,159
Speaker 2: trouble off the tee.

359
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,879
Speaker 1: And two players. I would warn people about investing in

360
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 1: Hideki Matsuyama, who did win here last year and was

361
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 1: runner up in twenty twenty one. His strokes gain stats

362
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 1: at TPC south Wind are pretty strong, but he's had

363
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 1: kind of a lackluster season by his standards. Maybe he's

364
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,359
Speaker 1: pulling it together. He's finished thirteenth, sixteenth, and nineteenth in

365
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 1: his last three events. I just don't think he's ready

366
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: to win against a strong field and Kegan Bradley for

367
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 1: his final season as he's having. He did miss the

368
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 1: cut at the Windham, and he has been bad at

369
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 1: TPC South Wind, finishing forty third or worse in his

370
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,959
Speaker 1: last five trips, and his strokes gain stats on this

371
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,240
Speaker 1: course are like worst in the field, among the worst

372
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 1: in the field. Let's look at more of the odds

373
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,479
Speaker 1: at plus forty five hundred are Chris got her up?

374
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 1: Jordan speedth JJ Spahn, Robert McIntyre, Harry Hall and Daniel

375
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: Berger at plus five thousand, we Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry

376
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 1: and Maverick McNeely. Aaron Ry and Jake Knapp are plus

377
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 1: fifty five hundred, Jason Day plus six thousand, Aksha Batiya Kurk,

378
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: Kitty I'm and Danny McCarthy a plus sixty five hundred.

379
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: Taylor Pendrith and Max Grazerman are plus seven thousand, and

380
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 1: plus eight thousand are Brian Harmon, Lucas Glover, Justin Rose, JT.

381
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 1: Post and Ricky Fowler and Nick Taylor. Do you like

382
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 1: any of these mid range options?

383
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 2: Bo? I mean, as crazy as it sounds, I like

384
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark this week. Wyndham Clark has been a ball

385
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 2: striking dynamo this this last couple of weeks. I think

386
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: you're starting to figure it out again. And this is

387
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: the best putter on Bermuda in this field. This is

388
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 2: a that's a red hot golfer who has had his

389
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 2: trials this season. Let's just say his anger has gotten

390
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 2: the best of him multiple times. But since then he's

391
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 2: turned his game around and now he's number four in

392
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: my model, and the only place that I'm showing him

393
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: not looking that great is on the shorter approach. Bucket

394
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,239
Speaker 2: won twenty five to one fifty, but on the one

395
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: fifty to one seventy five and the one seventy five

396
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 2: plus he's great. And he's obviously the best putter on Bermuda,

397
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 2: so he also top ten and par four scoring. He's

398
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 2: been really good at getting good drives off the tee lately.

399
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: That's last twenty four rounds number three in this field,

400
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 2: and birdies are better gained. Wyndham Clark at fifty five

401
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 2: to one is an extreme value. I thought he would

402
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 2: be somewhere around forty. Fifty Five to one on him

403
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 2: is great. And then Nick Taylor. It seems to be

404
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 2: when the courses get fast and they're not too long

405
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 2: in accuracy seems to be the premium. This is a

406
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: Nick Taylor type of golf course. This is a lot

407
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: like what's that a Winsor course that they've played a

408
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: couple of years ago when he made that bomb. This

409
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: is a very similar golf course, except this is a

410
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: little faster. Even I think that Nick Taylor eighty to

411
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: one is a really nice value too. That's those are

412
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 2: the two guys I have highlighted in this middle price.

413
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chris Gotterrup comes in red hot after a fabulous July,

414
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: and you won the Scottish Open, finished third at the

415
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: Open Championship, finished tenth at the three m. This will

416
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 1: be his FedEx Saint Jude Championship debut. The downside is

417
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 1: that he can be wayward off the tee and he

418
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: is barely inside the top one hundred in strokes gain

419
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 1: an approach this year. I'm kind of mildly interested in

420
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: Robert McIntyre, just really solid off the tee and with

421
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: his irons. He's finished top fifteen in his last two

422
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 1: trips here. But if you want a horse for the course,

423
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: let me throw two names out there. Bo Daniel Berger

424
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 1: fabulous track record at TPC south Wind. He had back

425
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 1: to back wins here in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. He

426
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 1: was second here in twenty twenty fifth here in twenty

427
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: twenty one, which was his last FedEx Saint Jude appearance.

428
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 1: Burger's strokes gained TETA green and strokes ganin and approach

429
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 1: numbers at TPC south Wind are fantastic best in the

430
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 1: field and Lucas Glover is actually a horse for the course.

431
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: He won here in twenty twenty three, third in twenty

432
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 1: twenty two, and he's played pretty well the last couple

433
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 1: of months. Ninth at the Travelers, fifth of the John Deere,

434
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 1: twenty third at the Open Championship. Glover's very accurate off

435
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: the tee and strong with his irons. All right, bo,

436
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: there are twenty eight players in this sixty nine man

437
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: field with odds of ninety to one or longer. Are

438
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: any of them worth a flyer?

439
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 2: I'll take a little shot on seaw Kim. Very accurate

440
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: player off the t He's not going to hurt himself.

441
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 2: His putting has been atrocious, but he seems to do

442
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 2: a little bit better on Bermuda. It seems like if

443
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: you get Seawoo Kim into a groove with the putter,

444
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: if he sees a couple go down on Thursday, we're

445
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: in business. But if he doesn't, then that's it. It's

446
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 2: baked into ninety to one. Chris Kirk is a horse

447
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 2: for this course, one hundred to one. He's just metrically

448
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 2: looking great. Chris Kirk is a stat darling, and at

449
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 2: one hundred and one, I'm kind of looking for that.

450
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 2: I'm looking for those stat darlings that number two in

451
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 2: this field and opportunities gain number two in that shorter

452
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: approach bucket, he's number fifteen at worst any of those

453
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: approach buckets. He's doing really good on approach this season.

454
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 2: Very bad putter. That's the one thing about Chris Kirk

455
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 2: that worries me here. But he's going to give himself

456
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: chances to make Berdie's another guy who is priced accordingly

457
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: to just struggling with the flat stick. This year's it

458
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 2: seems to be like they can get there off the tee.

459
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: Sewou and Kirk get there off the tee. They're good

460
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: on approach, and then nothing's going down this season. But

461
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 2: those could both change. These these are smaller greens, so

462
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 2: if they're on with their irons, they're not going to

463
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 2: look at too many long putts for Bertie. If the

464
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: opportunities are there, they have a chance to make them.

465
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, bow and a course with

466
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: smaller greens, maybe I'm a little bit more willing to

467
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,959
Speaker 1: bet on suspect putters.

468
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, like Lucas Glover's.

469
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's sort of it, because you know

470
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: you're just you're going to be looking at shorter pots.

471
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 3: Absolutely so.

472
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 1: And Chris Kirk does come in with some momentum too.

473
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 1: He's fourteenth was fourteenth if the three of them open

474
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, fifth at the Windham last week. He's

475
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: finished top twenty two of his last four trips to

476
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: TPC South wind Okay, bo, who do you have on

477
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: your early betting card?

478
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 3: So?

479
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 2: I have Justin Thomas at twenty two to one, Patrick

480
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 2: Cantley at thirty five to one, Sam Burns at forty

481
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 2: to one, win them, Clark at fifty five, Nick Taylor

482
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: at eighty, Sebu Kim at ninety and Chris Kirk at

483
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 2: one hundred.

484
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: All right, I am betting Victor Hovland at thirty to

485
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: one and Russell Henley at thirty to one. I'm betting

486
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,959
Speaker 1: Daniel Berger at forty five to one, also betting him

487
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 1: for a top five at plus six point fifty Lucas Glover.

488
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet these horses for courses. Bo Uh, Lucas

489
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: Glover eighty to one, and I like the top five

490
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: kicker on him at eleven to one, and I'm betting

491
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: Chris Kirk at one hundred to one. Now for a

492
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 1: one in done picks. There was no blood last week.

493
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 1: See the first time all year bowhead Keegan Bradley, Captain America,

494
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: missed the cut. I had Akshay Battia who was going

495
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: to miss the cut, but withdrew with a few holes

496
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: left to play on Friday. Just two weeks for me

497
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: to close a million dollar gap on you bo. But

498
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: this is a big money event. I'm up first. I'm

499
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: taking Victor Hoveland.

500
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 2: All right for you, Takor Hoveland. So I had a

501
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 2: problem where I took all the top guys out of

502
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: the field here and I've already used pretty much everybody here,

503
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: but I am going to take this is controversial because

504
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 2: it's not that far up. I'm going to use Wyndam Clark.

505
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: Wyndham Clark. It is Wyndam Clark for bow Victor Hovelin

506
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: for me. And that's all for this week's Betting Pros

507
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 1: PGA podcast. Please join us again next week when we

508
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: will be previewing the penultimate event of the season, the

509
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: BMW Championship. Until then, so long everyone.

510
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

511
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

512
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

513
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,159
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514
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,919
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515
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