WEBVTT - Surveillance: Eurasia Group Top Risks 2021 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:27.159 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. It 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.560 is the Eurasia top risks Ian Bremmer's with us, the 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:33.640 president of Eurasia Group, the driving force of what has 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:37.600 become a Jeeves zero America, and joining us now a 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:41.800 gentleman from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Joseph Kennedy is a 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.400 former congressman because he went after that far left Senator 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:49.200 Mr Markey and went down in flames. That's the latest 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:52.840 treatment that we've seen in the newspapers. The former unemployed 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.800 congressman joins us right now. Joe Kennedy, thank you so 0:00:56.880 --> 0:01:00.560 much for joining us. I would love to know your 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:04.919 view of Mr Biden is the last of your grand 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:09.039 uncle's Democratic Party, what he needs to do to bring 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:13.440 normalcy to the Democratic Party, to find a democratic center 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.160 versus what is perceived by so much of America is 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:21.440 a far left looks tough. Good morning, um, and thanks 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:23.520 for having me, and wonderful to be with you. But 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:28.080 I think you have in the president elects somebody whose service, 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:33.120 whose dignity and decency, and at his core, a politics 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.679 that is about building consensus and putting in that hard 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.320 work to bring people together. Is literally defined who Joe 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.759 Biden is. I think you're you're gonna see that. We've 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.880 already seen that outstretched hand to an American public across 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.360 the flippal spectrum to try to ask, he has said 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.760 many times, heal the wounds of of these past years. 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.720 The question is going to be, is that outstretched hand 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:55.920 going to be met? And what we've seen already in 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:57.800 the past coming days you all just alluded to this 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:02.760 is from leaders of the United States Senate rather than 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.520 folks that for people that know better and know the 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:08.680 damage that they might very well instill upon this country, 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:11.640 on our institutions and honor democracy. Rather than trying to 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.520 turn the page and actually restore our country to doing 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.280 that hard work, are trying to put ego and political 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:20.920 ambition ahead of the good of the nation. And I 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:23.960 it's not very often these days that I have been 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:28.839 left speakless because I've been expecting um communi erosion here. 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:32.000 But but this is quite something not all grew up 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.840 with your advantages, the history of the all BBN in 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.200 school in Boston and not to Stanford and such. Ian 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.320 Bremer took a different path. Tom Kane took a different path, 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.800 and all of that was in a different America. How 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:49.079 far is this two thousand twenty one America removed from 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:53.200 that of your father, from that of your grandfather, from 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:56.280 the rest of your family. How far are we removed 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.799 from the Kennedy of another time? I think part the 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.760 island as we're seeing is unfortunately, I think, in many respects, 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.120 were not far enough removed from those challenges that the 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.040 number of times Dolan and Ian and I have had 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.840 this conversation as well, the number of times of the 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.440 course the past year eighteen months that you hear these 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:21.840 questions about comparing are not insignificant. The battles that are 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:27.399 on the front lines today about racial justice, about economic dignity, 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:29.960 about trying to ensure that this is a country that 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:33.480 actually meets its founding ideals of equality in the pathway 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.400 for all those art That's what the end of the 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.200 sixties was all about. That's what these are the fights 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.080 on the forefront today. And I think in many regards 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.480 that the challenges that knowing what we know that you've 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.680 got a government as an institution that continues to lag 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:50.760 behind the will of its people. And and very briefly 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.960 here I agree with what in articulated in these challenges. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.440 But you look at look at what has happened on 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.760 state ballot initiatives, on public referendum, on minimum wage, on 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:03.200 voting rights, on healthcare. It is very clear where the 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:06.560 country wants to go. The obstacle at this point is 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.520 the government that continues to put up roadblocks and to 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.200 prohibit our people from getting there. But Congressman, good morning 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.480 from London. Is it that clear? I mean, many people 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:18.360 still voted for President Trump. And how does Joe Biden 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.240 actually bring the nation together? You know, as as Ian 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.440 put it, it's it's a very divided country, probably the 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:30.080 most divided in the last couple of centuries. So a 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:32.839 couple of things. One, when you look at those issues 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.040 like ballot initiatives, there's a clear pathway for their minimum 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.240 wage has raised, a minimum wage has actually brought appeal 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.800 across many parts of the country. We've seen voting rights 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:48.080 have increased um popularity across the country. We saw that 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:52.000 in Florida two years ago with the ballot initiative that 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:55.520 restored voting rights to convicted felons, while Donald while Republicans 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.719 actually want a governorship there in a Senate race in 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:00.920 a very tight rate. So there are, in fact policies 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:04.440 here that have widespread support. We've had a number of 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.360 states that have increased access to healthcare through Medicaid expansion, 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:10.720 yet having a Republican party continue to put up obstacles 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.520 to it. So I think on many issues here, it's 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.000 not quite as divided as a Republican leadership or Republican 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:20.320 base would like you to believe. Without question, it's a 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.920 divided country. Yes, I'd also point out that for all 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:27.640 of the challenges we're seeing, we're not the challenges that 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:31.599 we've seen. We haven't seen the level of of unrest 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:33.440 and violence in our streets that we've seen in other 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.800 parts of our century. So look, I'm not gonna sit 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:41.279 here and try to kind of paper over the real 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:45.159 challenges we have. I think what you have here those 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:47.720 You've got a president of the voice of the American 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.640 public that spoke and elected Joe Biden has said we 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:54.400 want to actually heal those wounds. The ultimate question is 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.920 whether though that effort going to be met with a 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.240 good faith effort by Republicans in Washington Congress. And let 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.200 me get in also, Ian Bremer, Ian, Yeah, I just 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:05.240 want to say that there's no question I think Joe 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:09.680 and I would agree that, UM, Joe Biden has the temperament, 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:15.440 the inclination, the experience to truly try to reach across 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.440 the aisle and bring the country together. But but no 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:24.400 one's arms are long enough in this environment. I mean, domestically, 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.880 the ability to pass the two three trillion dollar additional 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:31.960 stimulus that clearly would be necessary this year. Unless the 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:35.880 Democrats pull off two seats in the Senate races in 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:42.160 Georgia UM tomorrow, UH is a dead letter UM. And internationally, 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:46.239 there are so many that prefer to see Joe Biden 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:50.400 to Donald Trump, but they also recognize that they don't 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:53.680 believe that they can trust the United States going forward. 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:56.680 They see how divided it is, their skeptical, they understand 0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.279 how Trump could have won, and indeed their watch change. 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:02.200 Everything that's playing out in the United States right now 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.680 is being magnified all over the world. And when I 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:10.800 saw the Europeans cut that new Chinese multilateral trade deal 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:15.880 just a week ago, right before Biden becomes president. That's 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:19.160 a hedge, that's a really significant hedge from a lot 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.320 of leaders that are thinking to themselves. I don't really 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.520 believe that Biden is going to be able to accomplish 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:29.360 what he says he wants to do. We can't come 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.840 back to the United States that we once had and 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.400 clearly so many people would like to see on the 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:40.160 global stage. And I I don't disagree with you, Congressman 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:43.200 to that, And how do you think, Yeah, I said, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.960 I don't disagree with you. I do think that the 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.160 optimists in me here just points out the fact that 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.040 this is in fact a choice. Right. This is not 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.560 because Joe Biden doesn't want to get there. It's not 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:55.280 because I think most of the Democratic Party wants we 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.360 do actually want to heal those ones and move forward. 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:00.760 What we need is Republican leaders to be able to 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.640 meet us halfway. And what we've got that that is 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:05.800 in fact what we're seeing play out. And I think, 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:09.680 uh shocking ways so far to have twelve U. S. 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.520 Senators that they're going to actively dispute the certification of 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:16.240 the electoral College and they know better, right, um, So, 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.800 this is the underlying fundamentals that you point out are 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:23.840 I agree with the question. I think in large part 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:26.880 is going to be left to American political leadership to 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.240 have the choice as to whether they want to sew 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.640 that disruption or they want to move our country forward 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:37.240 into a more powerful position in the twenty first century. Congressman, 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:43.240 has President Trump actually changed US politics forever in US democracy? Uh, 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:47.160 He's certainly changed it for the short and intermediate term. 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.760 And look, I think that hud percent agree with in 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:53.280 the analysis here that what you're seeing is essentially twelve 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:59.560 Republican centers as of now that have political aspirations that 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.520 know in order to be successful for the presidency that 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:04.480 they are going to need to have the support of 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:08.000 a Donald Trump base. And I think that Donald Trump 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.720 is going to remain the loudest voice in the Republican 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:15.440 Party until there is a next Republican president, or at 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.280 least for the next four years. And again, that is 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:21.319 a choice that Republicans have to make as to whether 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:25.040 they're going to continue to countenance, forget the kind of 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:29.760 irrationality or the norm breaking or anything else. Once again, 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:35.760 actions that border on, if not cross legality and yet 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:38.040 another reason why a president could and should be, in 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:41.120 my mind, impeached. Joseph What you just tried to do, 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.440 Joe Kennedy. I want to circle back to where we 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.800 were at the beginning of trying to stagger into two 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:50.839 thousand twenty one. Republicans, Democrats all disaffected. Dr Bremer and 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:57.079 his report mentions college educated urbanites is defining your Democratic party. 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.079 How does your party get to the labor centric a 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:03.800 leaf that was in other generations? How do you get 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.959 back to labor support? What's the what's the actual method 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:13.880 of doing that? The actual method doing that is showing 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:18.520 up and fighting for working families across this country. And yes, 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:20.760 obviously I think we would all agree we should be 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:23.600 about expanding access to education and access to higher education. 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.120 But that does not mean you leave behind people that, 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.920 as we say, shall or after work rather than before. 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:33.840 That means that you've got to understand that the policies 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.920 that for on all a long time Democrats have championed 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.199 about increasing access to opportunity, that if people still didn't 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:42.439 get them because of the get that opportunity, because the 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:47.160 barrier's domestic or international, that they've not felt left behind. 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.560 They have been left behind and for Democrats to not 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:52.800 recognize that and not turn around and say, hey, we're 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:56.840 gonna fight for YouTube. That has been Donald Trump's observation. 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:00.320 And that's part of that success um that he's had 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.120 in his rhetoric, if not the political the policy of him. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.720 That Ian Bremer within the top risk that you right 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:11.840 up here on the United States of America, there's just 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:15.080 the time ticking on the demographic changes out into the 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:18.480 two thousand thirties, the two thousand forties. What do you 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.360 perceive over the next one, two, three and even five 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.920 years is being the democratic shift in what it will 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:29.199 do for our politics? A demographic shift, I should say. Well, 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.160 one thing that's exciting, um is that when you look 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:36.480 at millennials that are educated around the world. Um, you're 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:41.000 not just talking about white full You're talking about you know, 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:46.800 emerging markets suddenly dominating and sharing ideas. I mean, when 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.559 I was a kid growing up in Chelsea, Massachusetts and 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.199 the projects, you know, not that far from Joe by 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:56.199 the way, you know, I didn't know any of those kids. 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:00.240 I wasn't into K pop, for example, I wasn't share ring, 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.360 I wasn't on Fortnite, you know, sort of doing gaming 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:07.800 with kids from India or Cambodia or whatnot. Millennials today 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:11.319 are doing that. And one of the reasons why climate 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:14.040 change is really moving. And if there's one place that 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:17.720 Biden will truly be effective compared to Trump, it's in 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:24.080 actually embracing a post fossil fuel trajectory for the US 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.800 government in the U s economy, precisely because the markets 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:28.960 have already been moving in that direction for some for 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.640 some time. But they're doing that because young people all 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:37.040 over the world are connected to a global understanding that 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.679 climate is going to screw them as young people in 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:44.240 the future if they don't actually take action. So there 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.160 are reasons to believe that millennials will be more global, 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.960 they will be more connected, they will be less stovepiped. 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.920 But but that is those are not the people that 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:58.439 are running Washington right now. And and that demographic shift 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:01.920 you're talking about, when so many Americans are feeling disenfranchised, 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:05.280 when so many Americans are are are taking it on 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:09.520 the chin on the back of this coronavirus. Not those 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.240 of us in the knowledge economy that can socially distanced, 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.160 but those that are stuck, the essential workers that are 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:19.760 treated like anything, but and that that gap, that gap 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:24.200 is immense and painful and drives incredible risk and uncertainty 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:29.880 in Ian. Thanks so much and Bremer there of your 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:31.960 Asia group, and we'll talk a lot more about climate change. 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.480 And thank you to the former Congressman, of course, Joseph 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:42.040 Kennedy of Massachusetts. A quick look at the chart of oil. 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.040 Maybe it is the chart here of the day Brent 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.840 crude when we knew it above a hundred dollars of 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.520 barrel for sustained time, and then the collapse of oil 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.040 and of course in negative prices that we saw earlier 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:57.440 this year, back to fifty dollars a barrel. That's a 0:13:57.480 --> 0:14:01.199 precursor for Daniel Jurgen. The New Map is his new book. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.880 It's my book of the year. It is just a 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:08.560 beautifully written exercise in our geopolitics and the course of 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:12.319 oil and the new oil. I should say as well, Dan, 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.440 you're going wonderful to have you with us here with 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:19.800 Dr Bremer. I need to go right to our immediate geopolitics. 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.960 What should President Biden's approach be to Saudi Arabia and 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.960 to Russia. I think his approach to Saudi Arabia will 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:31.560 be measured to Saudi has not been looking forward to 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:36.080 a Biden presidency. There will be new stresses in the relationship, 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:38.920 and there will be no sword dance as there was 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.640 when President Trump made his first visit there. I think, 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.200 so it will be a different relationship, and Saudi Arabia 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.760 will be doing some things to try and uh, you know, 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.240 kind of amiliorated, but it will be frosty. The check 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:57.040 on Russia, it's obviously what there will be always a 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.160 discussion how do we get back into some reasonable relation 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.680 ship with Russia. But after this massive cyber attack on 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.280 government and private business, that's just gonna make it much 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.320 more difficult. So it starts off on a very bad foot. 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.120 And you ask, once again what were the Russians thinking? 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.840 What did they achieve by doing this? The commanding heights 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:22.160 of oil at fifty dollars a barrel? Are they commanding 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:26.400 heights or is it a oil global oil complex that 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:30.520 is desperate and fragile. I would say it's more of 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:34.000 the latter, because well, it's said it is creeping out 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.840 of that virus alley of fifty. It's now just a 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.640 little over fifty if you look at Brent. But you 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.840 have a big overhang of oil UH supplies in terms 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.120 that OPEC and non OPEQ OPEC plus are holding back. 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.120 Plus you have the question of whether there will be 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.400 some dialogue between the US and Iran that will relieve 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.400 sanctions on Iranian oil. So there's a lot of overhang. 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.960 But the good news is that is virus. You know, 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.200 it's not as asks it should be, but as vaccination spread, 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.040 as economies will open up again. One result of that 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.520 will be more economic activity and oil will get into 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:13.680 an area that is would support future investment, which has 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:17.320 really been cut very dramatically over the last year. Daniel, 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.960 good morning from London. Are we going to see peak 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:24.640 oil sooner than we think because of climate change action, 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:29.040 because of concerns surrounding fossil fuel and carbon emission. Well, 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.760 I think that is the probably that an energy transition 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:34.960 are the two big questions that you run into in 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:38.760 oil circles, energy circles around and climate circles around the world. 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.560 I still think that peak oil peak demand is probably 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:46.720 about a decade away. We're seeing these announcements about banning 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.760 internal combustion engines. Let there will be twenty thirty or 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.400 twenty five on the other side, you're gonna add other 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:58.280 billion people or so to the world economies hopefully will recover. 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.640 And so I don't think it's as imminent as we think. 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.960 And something else people forget is in for instance, the 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.520 United States, cars stay on the road for twelve to 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:11.280 fifteen years. You don't just go away somewhere. So I 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:14.080 think it is an energy transition. I think it's a 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:18.080 longer process than snapping your fingers. And how do you 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:21.399 see this developing? Well, it's so funny. I mean, you know, 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.639 the the lifespan of a horse, uh is about twelve 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.280 to fifteen years. And you know, once you got the 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.080 steam engine, you still didn't, you know, crush the horse 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:34.840 population until after the existing horses no longer had a lifespan, 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.560 and then you just stopped. And then within one generation 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.919 horses went to about ten percent of what they were before. 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.880 They became useful for entertainment and for food, and that 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.400 was it. And the question is is that where we're 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.800 going with cars, with with you know, with a mission, 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.080 with with the combustion engines. Uh. Look, it's it's an 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:56.360 extraordinary change. Um, when you have the United States government 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.920 with by far the most important uh, appointment that by 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:04.160 and is making is John Kerry, who ran for president, 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.879 who was Secretary State, who believes he should have been president, 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.480 certainly thinks he's smarter than than Joe Biden, and he's 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.239 and he's creating a new cabinet position that will be 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.960 staffed to focus on climate, climate climate. I think it's 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.760 a massive shift. And by the way, I think one 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.440 of the more interesting things that we're gonna see over 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:27.159 the coming year as the Americans as a polity start 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:30.880 taking this very seriously as a government, is that we're 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:34.960 gonna want to look forward after these ten years when 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:38.760 it's no longer as much about fossil fuels. Who's gonna 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:44.000 dominate these new technologies? And you know, under the Trump administration, 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.879 if you want to talk about solar or wind or 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:51.199 electric vehicle infrastructure, you're talking about China. So actually this 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.640 is going to create more geopolitical competition between the two 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.320 largest economies, the U. S And China. Then a lot 0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:59.520 of people might have thought thinking, oh, when the Americans 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:01.639 talk about I'm gonna be clumb by off for everyone together, 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.320 Actually a lot more geopolitical competition coming. I think, if 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.520 I can, if I please do it, please do. That 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:12.440 means that the supply chains, you know, the supply chains 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.120 of oil have always had a lot of tension around them. 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.399 As Ian is saying there's gonna be tension now around 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:21.240 the supply chains because look at the way China dominates 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:25.480 the lithium ion battery supply chain. One thing about cars, 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.240 it's very interesting. If every car in the world today 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.359 was an electric car running on wind and solar, you 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:34.679 would reduce emissions CO two emissions by about six percent. 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.199 So you have to look at the whole totality in 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:39.880 terms of really having an effect. But if you look 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.800 at where the automakers are, their investment is certainly shifting 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.320 to electric cars, so they see that there is going 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:48.040 to be a tipping point. Daniel, you're gonna dr Bremer 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.000 mentions John Kerry I said on a stage in Davos 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.959 with John Carey, and he was really quite something. The 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:58.119 facts involved the knowledge basity on climate change. He also 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.240 has a knowledge base that there is a U WES 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.960 Senate Heaven forbid, if one senator went from the prize 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.240 and read it, and then they went to the quest 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.120 and read it, and then they went to the new 0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.760 map and read it, could you have a Senate that 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:15.399 would go along with President Biden and support some form 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:20.280 of political climate change policy, or does the Senate block 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:23.959 all No. I think well, it depends, uh what happens 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:28.800 tomorrow in Georgia. But on that's in a very near term. 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:31.439 I think that you would have people supporting it. But 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.719 I think it's a question of understanding the time frames 0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:39.359 involved in the cost. And Ian's report about the risk 0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:42.399 makes makes a very important point that may not be 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:45.439 looked at right now, but it's the cost of COVID 0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:49.400 and the cost of dealing with COVID afterwards. So government's 0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:52.520 budgets are going to be strained between what they want 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:55.600 to do in terms of climate and energy transition on 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.960 one side and actually continuing to heal the economy on 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.560 the other. So there will be a fiscal pressure there 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:04.560 that will also have to be part of the equation. Yeah. 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.400 And you look at the countries like Brazil and India 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.440 that are very carbon intensive on the back of all 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:12.200 of this that, you know, it's going to be very 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:15.080 very hard for them in a post COVID environment to 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:19.000 say we're gonna get on in aligne with all these countries. Yeah, yep. 0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:22.040 And is it two tenus to make the link between 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:26.400 you know, Russia oil rich country, sad Arabia oil rich country, 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.800 and what role they have to play do you politically? 0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:32.600 So if Russia sees the price of oil go down 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:35.720 peek oil, maybe sooner than we think, do they become 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.160 more belligerent? Um? I think Russia is becoming more belligerent 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:43.879 because generally they are a country in decline um, and 0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:47.280 they blame the United States for that and Putin has control, 0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:50.480 where in the case of the Saudiast, I mean, I 0:21:50.520 --> 0:21:53.480 do think that this is going to move them more 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:57.160 quickly towards diversifying their economy. It's gonna and they may 0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:00.560 not be effective, and some of their vision jin is 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:04.400 obviously pie in the sky. But but I think they're 0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.199 gonna be buffeted much more by their environment, where in 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.600 the case of Putin, he's angered by that, he's lashing out. 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:13.000 So belligerents is the right question when you talk about 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.879 moscow Ian bremer with us. It is the top risks 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.359 of two thousand twenty one. And we think Daniel Jurgen 0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:20.600 of I H. S Market and of course his new 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:24.400 book The New Map uh most readable. Dr Jorgina thank 0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:31.080 you so much. Right now, not spin but science, and 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:33.560 I want to pause here and say that our team 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:36.920 all through two thousand twenty I thought had great leadership 0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:41.879 on speaking to science into political experts of how to 0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:45.159 handle this pandemic. David Nebarrow will join us with the 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:47.960 World Health Organization here, but I need to turn to 0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:50.359 the chairman of your age, your group, Cliff Cupchain, right 0:22:50.400 --> 0:22:54.240 now on their take on two thousand twenty one and COVID. Cliff, 0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:57.119 before we get to Dr Nobarrow, help us here with 0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:01.639 the distinction of your COVID risk. The COVID risk is 0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:05.720 that the scar tissue, the lingering effects, the effects, the 0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:08.920 economic impacts of COVID are going to go away quickly 0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:12.440 or easily. For a few reasons. We will have within 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.639 every country the so called K curve. Different socio economic 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:21.000 groups recover different rates, usually have growing inequality. Internationally, you 0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:24.160 will have different rates of recovery, of multi speed recovery 0:23:24.160 --> 0:23:28.080