1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. It 5 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: is the Eurasia top risks Ian Bremmer's with us, the 6 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: president of Eurasia Group, the driving force of what has 7 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: become a Jeeves zero America, and joining us now a 8 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: gentleman from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Joseph Kennedy is a 9 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: former congressman because he went after that far left Senator 10 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: Mr Markey and went down in flames. That's the latest 11 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 1: treatment that we've seen in the newspapers. The former unemployed 12 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: congressman joins us right now. Joe Kennedy, thank you so 13 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: much for joining us. I would love to know your 14 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,919 Speaker 1: view of Mr Biden is the last of your grand 15 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 1: uncle's Democratic Party, what he needs to do to bring 16 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: normalcy to the Democratic Party, to find a democratic center 17 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: versus what is perceived by so much of America is 18 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: a far left looks tough. Good morning, um, and thanks 19 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: for having me, and wonderful to be with you. But 20 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: I think you have in the president elects somebody whose service, 21 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: whose dignity and decency, and at his core, a politics 22 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: that is about building consensus and putting in that hard 23 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: work to bring people together. Is literally defined who Joe 24 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: Biden is. I think you're you're gonna see that. We've 25 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: already seen that outstretched hand to an American public across 26 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: the flippal spectrum to try to ask, he has said 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: many times, heal the wounds of of these past years. 28 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: The question is going to be, is that outstretched hand 29 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: going to be met? And what we've seen already in 30 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: the past coming days you all just alluded to this 31 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: is from leaders of the United States Senate rather than 32 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: folks that for people that know better and know the 33 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: damage that they might very well instill upon this country, 34 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: on our institutions and honor democracy. Rather than trying to 35 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: turn the page and actually restore our country to doing 36 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: that hard work, are trying to put ego and political 37 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: ambition ahead of the good of the nation. And I 38 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: it's not very often these days that I have been 39 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,839 Speaker 1: left speakless because I've been expecting um communi erosion here. 40 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: But but this is quite something not all grew up 41 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: with your advantages, the history of the all BBN in 42 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: school in Boston and not to Stanford and such. Ian 43 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: Bremer took a different path. Tom Kane took a different path, 44 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: and all of that was in a different America. How 45 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: far is this two thousand twenty one America removed from 46 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: that of your father, from that of your grandfather, from 47 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: the rest of your family. How far are we removed 48 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: from the Kennedy of another time? I think part the 49 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: island as we're seeing is unfortunately, I think, in many respects, 50 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: were not far enough removed from those challenges that the 51 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: number of times Dolan and Ian and I have had 52 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: this conversation as well, the number of times of the 53 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: course the past year eighteen months that you hear these 54 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: questions about comparing are not insignificant. The battles that are 55 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:27,399 Speaker 1: on the front lines today about racial justice, about economic dignity, 56 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: about trying to ensure that this is a country that 57 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: actually meets its founding ideals of equality in the pathway 58 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: for all those art That's what the end of the 59 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: sixties was all about. That's what these are the fights 60 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: on the forefront today. And I think in many regards 61 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: that the challenges that knowing what we know that you've 62 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: got a government as an institution that continues to lag 63 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: behind the will of its people. And and very briefly 64 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: here I agree with what in articulated in these challenges. 65 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: But you look at look at what has happened on 66 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: state ballot initiatives, on public referendum, on minimum wage, on 67 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: voting rights, on healthcare. It is very clear where the 68 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: country wants to go. The obstacle at this point is 69 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: the government that continues to put up roadblocks and to 70 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: prohibit our people from getting there. But Congressman, good morning 71 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: from London. Is it that clear? I mean, many people 72 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: still voted for President Trump. And how does Joe Biden 73 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: actually bring the nation together? You know, as as Ian 74 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: put it, it's it's a very divided country, probably the 75 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: most divided in the last couple of centuries. So a 76 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: couple of things. One, when you look at those issues 77 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: like ballot initiatives, there's a clear pathway for their minimum 78 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: wage has raised, a minimum wage has actually brought appeal 79 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: across many parts of the country. We've seen voting rights 80 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: have increased um popularity across the country. We saw that 81 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: in Florida two years ago with the ballot initiative that 82 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: restored voting rights to convicted felons, while Donald while Republicans 83 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: actually want a governorship there in a Senate race in 84 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: a very tight rate. So there are, in fact policies 85 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: here that have widespread support. We've had a number of 86 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: states that have increased access to healthcare through Medicaid expansion, 87 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: yet having a Republican party continue to put up obstacles 88 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: to it. So I think on many issues here, it's 89 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: not quite as divided as a Republican leadership or Republican 90 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: base would like you to believe. Without question, it's a 91 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: divided country. Yes, I'd also point out that for all 92 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: of the challenges we're seeing, we're not the challenges that 93 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: we've seen. We haven't seen the level of of unrest 94 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: and violence in our streets that we've seen in other 95 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: parts of our century. So look, I'm not gonna sit 96 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: here and try to kind of paper over the real 97 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 1: challenges we have. I think what you have here those 98 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: You've got a president of the voice of the American 99 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: public that spoke and elected Joe Biden has said we 100 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: want to actually heal those wounds. The ultimate question is 101 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: whether though that effort going to be met with a 102 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: good faith effort by Republicans in Washington Congress. And let 103 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: me get in also, Ian Bremer, Ian, Yeah, I just 104 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: want to say that there's no question I think Joe 105 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: and I would agree that, UM, Joe Biden has the temperament, 106 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: the inclination, the experience to truly try to reach across 107 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: the aisle and bring the country together. But but no 108 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: one's arms are long enough in this environment. I mean, domestically, 109 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: the ability to pass the two three trillion dollar additional 110 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: stimulus that clearly would be necessary this year. Unless the 111 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: Democrats pull off two seats in the Senate races in 112 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 1: Georgia UM tomorrow, UH is a dead letter UM. And internationally, 113 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,239 Speaker 1: there are so many that prefer to see Joe Biden 114 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: to Donald Trump, but they also recognize that they don't 115 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: believe that they can trust the United States going forward. 116 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: They see how divided it is, their skeptical, they understand 117 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 1: how Trump could have won, and indeed their watch change. 118 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: Everything that's playing out in the United States right now 119 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: is being magnified all over the world. And when I 120 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: saw the Europeans cut that new Chinese multilateral trade deal 121 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: just a week ago, right before Biden becomes president. That's 122 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: a hedge, that's a really significant hedge from a lot 123 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: of leaders that are thinking to themselves. I don't really 124 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: believe that Biden is going to be able to accomplish 125 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: what he says he wants to do. We can't come 126 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: back to the United States that we once had and 127 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: clearly so many people would like to see on the 128 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: global stage. And I I don't disagree with you, Congressman 129 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: to that, And how do you think, Yeah, I said, 130 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you. I do think that the 131 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: optimists in me here just points out the fact that 132 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: this is in fact a choice. Right. This is not 133 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: because Joe Biden doesn't want to get there. It's not 134 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: because I think most of the Democratic Party wants we 135 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: do actually want to heal those ones and move forward. 136 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: What we need is Republican leaders to be able to 137 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: meet us halfway. And what we've got that that is 138 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: in fact what we're seeing play out. And I think, 139 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: uh shocking ways so far to have twelve U. S. 140 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: Senators that they're going to actively dispute the certification of 141 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: the electoral College and they know better, right, um, So, 142 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: this is the underlying fundamentals that you point out are 143 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: I agree with the question. I think in large part 144 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: is going to be left to American political leadership to 145 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: have the choice as to whether they want to sew 146 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: that disruption or they want to move our country forward 147 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: into a more powerful position in the twenty first century. Congressman, 148 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: has President Trump actually changed US politics forever in US democracy? Uh, 149 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: He's certainly changed it for the short and intermediate term. 150 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: And look, I think that hud percent agree with in 151 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: the analysis here that what you're seeing is essentially twelve 152 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: Republican centers as of now that have political aspirations that 153 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: know in order to be successful for the presidency that 154 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: they are going to need to have the support of 155 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: a Donald Trump base. And I think that Donald Trump 156 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: is going to remain the loudest voice in the Republican 157 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: Party until there is a next Republican president, or at 158 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: least for the next four years. And again, that is 159 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: a choice that Republicans have to make as to whether 160 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: they're going to continue to countenance, forget the kind of 161 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: irrationality or the norm breaking or anything else. Once again, 162 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: actions that border on, if not cross legality and yet 163 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: another reason why a president could and should be, in 164 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: my mind, impeached. Joseph What you just tried to do, 165 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: Joe Kennedy. I want to circle back to where we 166 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: were at the beginning of trying to stagger into two 167 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 1: thousand twenty one. Republicans, Democrats all disaffected. Dr Bremer and 168 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 1: his report mentions college educated urbanites is defining your Democratic party. 169 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,079 Speaker 1: How does your party get to the labor centric a 170 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: leaf that was in other generations? How do you get 171 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 1: back to labor support? What's the what's the actual method 172 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: of doing that? The actual method doing that is showing 173 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: up and fighting for working families across this country. And yes, 174 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: obviously I think we would all agree we should be 175 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: about expanding access to education and access to higher education. 176 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: But that does not mean you leave behind people that, 177 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: as we say, shall or after work rather than before. 178 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: That means that you've got to understand that the policies 179 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: that for on all a long time Democrats have championed 180 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: about increasing access to opportunity, that if people still didn't 181 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,439 Speaker 1: get them because of the get that opportunity, because the 182 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: barrier's domestic or international, that they've not felt left behind. 183 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: They have been left behind and for Democrats to not 184 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: recognize that and not turn around and say, hey, we're 185 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: gonna fight for YouTube. That has been Donald Trump's observation. 186 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: And that's part of that success um that he's had 187 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: in his rhetoric, if not the political the policy of him. 188 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: That Ian Bremer within the top risk that you right 189 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: up here on the United States of America, there's just 190 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: the time ticking on the demographic changes out into the 191 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: two thousand thirties, the two thousand forties. What do you 192 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: perceive over the next one, two, three and even five 193 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: years is being the democratic shift in what it will 194 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: do for our politics? A demographic shift, I should say. Well, 195 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: one thing that's exciting, um is that when you look 196 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: at millennials that are educated around the world. Um, you're 197 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: not just talking about white full You're talking about you know, 198 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: emerging markets suddenly dominating and sharing ideas. I mean, when 199 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: I was a kid growing up in Chelsea, Massachusetts and 200 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: the projects, you know, not that far from Joe by 201 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 1: the way, you know, I didn't know any of those kids. 202 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: I wasn't into K pop, for example, I wasn't share ring, 203 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: I wasn't on Fortnite, you know, sort of doing gaming 204 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: with kids from India or Cambodia or whatnot. Millennials today 205 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 1: are doing that. And one of the reasons why climate 206 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: change is really moving. And if there's one place that 207 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: Biden will truly be effective compared to Trump, it's in 208 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 1: actually embracing a post fossil fuel trajectory for the US 209 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: government in the U s economy, precisely because the markets 210 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: have already been moving in that direction for some for 211 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: some time. But they're doing that because young people all 212 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: over the world are connected to a global understanding that 213 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: climate is going to screw them as young people in 214 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: the future if they don't actually take action. So there 215 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: are reasons to believe that millennials will be more global, 216 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 1: they will be more connected, they will be less stovepiped. 217 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: But but that is those are not the people that 218 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 1: are running Washington right now. And and that demographic shift 219 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: you're talking about, when so many Americans are feeling disenfranchised, 220 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: when so many Americans are are are taking it on 221 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: the chin on the back of this coronavirus. Not those 222 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: of us in the knowledge economy that can socially distanced, 223 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 1: but those that are stuck, the essential workers that are 224 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: treated like anything, but and that that gap, that gap 225 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: is immense and painful and drives incredible risk and uncertainty 226 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: in Ian. Thanks so much and Bremer there of your 227 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 1: Asia group, and we'll talk a lot more about climate change. 228 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: And thank you to the former Congressman, of course, Joseph 229 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: Kennedy of Massachusetts. A quick look at the chart of oil. 230 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: Maybe it is the chart here of the day Brent 231 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: crude when we knew it above a hundred dollars of 232 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: barrel for sustained time, and then the collapse of oil 233 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: and of course in negative prices that we saw earlier 234 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: this year, back to fifty dollars a barrel. That's a 235 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 1: precursor for Daniel Jurgen. The New Map is his new book. 236 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: It's my book of the year. It is just a 237 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: beautifully written exercise in our geopolitics and the course of 238 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 1: oil and the new oil. I should say as well, Dan, 239 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: you're going wonderful to have you with us here with 240 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: Dr Bremer. I need to go right to our immediate geopolitics. 241 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: What should President Biden's approach be to Saudi Arabia and 242 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: to Russia. I think his approach to Saudi Arabia will 243 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: be measured to Saudi has not been looking forward to 244 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: a Biden presidency. There will be new stresses in the relationship, 245 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: and there will be no sword dance as there was 246 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: when President Trump made his first visit there. I think, 247 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: so it will be a different relationship, and Saudi Arabia 248 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: will be doing some things to try and uh, you know, 249 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: kind of amiliorated, but it will be frosty. The check 250 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: on Russia, it's obviously what there will be always a 251 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: discussion how do we get back into some reasonable relation 252 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: ship with Russia. But after this massive cyber attack on 253 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: government and private business, that's just gonna make it much 254 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: more difficult. So it starts off on a very bad foot. 255 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: And you ask, once again what were the Russians thinking? 256 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: What did they achieve by doing this? The commanding heights 257 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: of oil at fifty dollars a barrel? Are they commanding 258 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: heights or is it a oil global oil complex that 259 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: is desperate and fragile. I would say it's more of 260 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: the latter, because well, it's said it is creeping out 261 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: of that virus alley of fifty. It's now just a 262 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: little over fifty if you look at Brent. But you 263 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 1: have a big overhang of oil UH supplies in terms 264 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: that OPEC and non OPEQ OPEC plus are holding back. 265 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: Plus you have the question of whether there will be 266 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: some dialogue between the US and Iran that will relieve 267 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: sanctions on Iranian oil. So there's a lot of overhang. 268 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: But the good news is that is virus. You know, 269 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: it's not as asks it should be, but as vaccination spread, 270 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: as economies will open up again. One result of that 271 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: will be more economic activity and oil will get into 272 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 1: an area that is would support future investment, which has 273 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: really been cut very dramatically over the last year. Daniel, 274 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: good morning from London. Are we going to see peak 275 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: oil sooner than we think because of climate change action, 276 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: because of concerns surrounding fossil fuel and carbon emission. Well, 277 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: I think that is the probably that an energy transition 278 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: are the two big questions that you run into in 279 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: oil circles, energy circles around and climate circles around the world. 280 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: I still think that peak oil peak demand is probably 281 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: about a decade away. We're seeing these announcements about banning 282 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: internal combustion engines. Let there will be twenty thirty or 283 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: twenty five on the other side, you're gonna add other 284 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: billion people or so to the world economies hopefully will recover. 285 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: And so I don't think it's as imminent as we think. 286 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: And something else people forget is in for instance, the 287 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: United States, cars stay on the road for twelve to 288 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: fifteen years. You don't just go away somewhere. So I 289 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: think it is an energy transition. I think it's a 290 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 1: longer process than snapping your fingers. And how do you 291 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 1: see this developing? Well, it's so funny. I mean, you know, 292 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 1: the the lifespan of a horse, uh is about twelve 293 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: to fifteen years. And you know, once you got the 294 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: steam engine, you still didn't, you know, crush the horse 295 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: population until after the existing horses no longer had a lifespan, 296 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 1: and then you just stopped. And then within one generation 297 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,919 Speaker 1: horses went to about ten percent of what they were before. 298 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 1: They became useful for entertainment and for food, and that 299 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 1: was it. And the question is is that where we're 300 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: going with cars, with with you know, with a mission, 301 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 1: with with the combustion engines. Uh. Look, it's it's an 302 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: extraordinary change. Um, when you have the United States government 303 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: with by far the most important uh, appointment that by 304 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: and is making is John Kerry, who ran for president, 305 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: who was Secretary State, who believes he should have been president, 306 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: certainly thinks he's smarter than than Joe Biden, and he's 307 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:13,239 Speaker 1: and he's creating a new cabinet position that will be 308 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: staffed to focus on climate, climate climate. I think it's 309 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: a massive shift. And by the way, I think one 310 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 1: of the more interesting things that we're gonna see over 311 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 1: the coming year as the Americans as a polity start 312 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 1: taking this very seriously as a government, is that we're 313 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 1: gonna want to look forward after these ten years when 314 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: it's no longer as much about fossil fuels. Who's gonna 315 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: dominate these new technologies? And you know, under the Trump administration, 316 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: if you want to talk about solar or wind or 317 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: electric vehicle infrastructure, you're talking about China. So actually this 318 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 1: is going to create more geopolitical competition between the two 319 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: largest economies, the U. S And China. Then a lot 320 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: of people might have thought thinking, oh, when the Americans 321 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: talk about I'm gonna be clumb by off for everyone together, 322 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: Actually a lot more geopolitical competition coming. I think, if 323 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: I can, if I please do it, please do. That 324 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: means that the supply chains, you know, the supply chains 325 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 1: of oil have always had a lot of tension around them. 326 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: As Ian is saying there's gonna be tension now around 327 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: the supply chains because look at the way China dominates 328 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: the lithium ion battery supply chain. One thing about cars, 329 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: it's very interesting. If every car in the world today 330 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: was an electric car running on wind and solar, you 331 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: would reduce emissions CO two emissions by about six percent. 332 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 1: So you have to look at the whole totality in 333 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: terms of really having an effect. But if you look 334 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: at where the automakers are, their investment is certainly shifting 335 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: to electric cars, so they see that there is going 336 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 1: to be a tipping point. Daniel, you're gonna dr Bremer 337 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: mentions John Kerry I said on a stage in Davos 338 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,959 Speaker 1: with John Carey, and he was really quite something. The 339 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: facts involved the knowledge basity on climate change. He also 340 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: has a knowledge base that there is a U WES 341 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: Senate Heaven forbid, if one senator went from the prize 342 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: and read it, and then they went to the quest 343 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 1: and read it, and then they went to the new 344 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: map and read it, could you have a Senate that 345 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 1: would go along with President Biden and support some form 346 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: of political climate change policy, or does the Senate block 347 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 1: all No. I think well, it depends, uh what happens 348 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: tomorrow in Georgia. But on that's in a very near term. 349 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 1: I think that you would have people supporting it. But 350 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,719 Speaker 1: I think it's a question of understanding the time frames 351 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: involved in the cost. And Ian's report about the risk 352 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 1: makes makes a very important point that may not be 353 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 1: looked at right now, but it's the cost of COVID 354 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 1: and the cost of dealing with COVID afterwards. So government's 355 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: budgets are going to be strained between what they want 356 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: to do in terms of climate and energy transition on 357 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: one side and actually continuing to heal the economy on 358 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: the other. So there will be a fiscal pressure there 359 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: that will also have to be part of the equation. Yeah. 360 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: And you look at the countries like Brazil and India 361 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: that are very carbon intensive on the back of all 362 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: of this that, you know, it's going to be very 363 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: very hard for them in a post COVID environment to 364 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: say we're gonna get on in aligne with all these countries. Yeah, yep. 365 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: And is it two tenus to make the link between 366 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: you know, Russia oil rich country, sad Arabia oil rich country, 367 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 1: and what role they have to play do you politically? 368 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: So if Russia sees the price of oil go down 369 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: peek oil, maybe sooner than we think, do they become 370 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: more belligerent? Um? I think Russia is becoming more belligerent 371 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 1: because generally they are a country in decline um, and 372 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: they blame the United States for that and Putin has control, 373 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: where in the case of the Saudiast, I mean, I 374 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: do think that this is going to move them more 375 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: quickly towards diversifying their economy. It's gonna and they may 376 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: not be effective, and some of their vision jin is 377 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 1: obviously pie in the sky. But but I think they're 378 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: gonna be buffeted much more by their environment, where in 379 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: the case of Putin, he's angered by that, he's lashing out. 380 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: So belligerents is the right question when you talk about 381 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: moscow Ian bremer with us. It is the top risks 382 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: of two thousand twenty one. And we think Daniel Jurgen 383 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: of I H. S Market and of course his new 384 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,400 Speaker 1: book The New Map uh most readable. Dr Jorgina thank 385 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: you so much. Right now, not spin but science, and 386 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: I want to pause here and say that our team 387 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: all through two thousand twenty I thought had great leadership 388 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: on speaking to science into political experts of how to 389 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 1: handle this pandemic. David Nebarrow will join us with the 390 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: World Health Organization here, but I need to turn to 391 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 1: the chairman of your age, your group, Cliff Cupchain, right 392 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: now on their take on two thousand twenty one and COVID. Cliff, 393 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: before we get to Dr Nobarrow, help us here with 394 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 1: the distinction of your COVID risk. The COVID risk is 395 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: that the scar tissue, the lingering effects, the effects, the 396 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 1: economic impacts of COVID are going to go away quickly 397 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 1: or easily. For a few reasons. We will have within 398 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: every country the so called K curve. Different socio economic 399 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: groups recover different rates, usually have growing inequality. Internationally, you 400 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 1: will have different rates of recovery, of multi speed recovery 401 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: based on vaccine access and other rollout factors. So what 402 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: what will you have as a result of this carcasue? 403 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: You'll have instability, You'll have anti incumbent anchor and a 404 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: lot of elections coming up in Latin America, for example, 405 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: and you'll have a debt crutches as as lenders become 406 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: more discriminated, a lot of emerging markets are gonna have 407 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: trouble getting capital and that's going to create big pressure 408 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: in debt markets this year. David and Borrow, thank you 409 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Thrilled to have you answer 410 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty and for you to provide a voice 411 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: here to start the year. I want to speak not 412 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 1: about cases which I can't count, or deaths general trust, 413 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 1: but the hospitalization surge in the sinceanity over the long 414 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: weekend that we can't get vaccinated fast enough. What is 415 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: the the Borrow solution to jump start the rate of 416 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 1: vaccinations and double dose vaccinations? Thanks very much. Indeed, there 417 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: is no alternative but to make vaccines available as widely 418 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: as possible as soon as they get approved. I don't 419 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: want any corners to be cut on the approval process. 420 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: So each vaccine must go through their Phase three trials 421 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: and then be properly assessed by national regulators as well 422 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: as by the World Health Organization. But that's the only 423 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: option that we have if we're going to rely on 424 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: vaccines to get this pandemic to subside just one last point. 425 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 1: Vaccines won't be enough on their own. We will need 426 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,640 Speaker 1: to continue to pay attention to the rules that were 427 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: set over the last few months about physical distancing, mask wearing, 428 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: isolating when sick, looking after those who are frail and vulnerable, 429 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:25,880 Speaker 1: because these basic principles, backed up by strong public health 430 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: work at local level, still will be key for the 431 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 1: coming months even years, to enable societies to get on 432 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: top of this pandemic. Dr Nabarro there were trials with 433 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: vaccines and they told us, for example, Fiser, that you 434 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 1: take the first dose and then you have to take 435 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: a second dose after three or four weeks. Does it 436 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: make a difference, And how much of a difference if 437 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: you delay that second dose by months. What we're seeing 438 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: now is more and more countries wondering whether a wide 439 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 1: spread use of a single dose of one of these 440 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: vaccines may in the end be more effective at helping 441 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: slow down the pandemic and reduce suffering than making sure 442 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: that everybody receives their two doses at four weeks or 443 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: so intervals. I am not really at this stage able 444 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 1: to come out in favor of one option or the other, 445 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 1: because they are so situation dependent. The move towards a 446 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: longer interval between vaccine doses reflects an anxiety in some 447 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,880 Speaker 1: countries that this situation is so intense that to protect 448 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,639 Speaker 1: health services, getting single shots into as many people as 449 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 1: possible is the only right way to go. But as 450 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:56,120 Speaker 1: you picked up during the last few days, there's been 451 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: quite a lot of controversy over exactly how to go 452 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:05,879 Speaker 1: down this quite experimental path. Yeah, there's also a lot 453 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: of controversy and you know, a lot of citizens calling 454 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 1: symbolic vaccination programs because a lot of the European countries 455 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: have the vaccines, but they're just not administering them quickly enough. 456 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: Would you ask countries to be quicker to find more 457 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: ways of finding pharmacies for example, to administer these vaccines 458 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: not only hospitals. Yes, So that what this really means 459 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: is that the administration of vaccines must be thoroughly planned. 460 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 1: We know from so many different campaigns that if you 461 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:51,159 Speaker 1: don't have proper planning at local, state, national, regional and 462 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 1: global level for the use of scarce vaccines, especially when 463 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: you're in a crisis situation, you can end up with 464 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: a lot of waste and indeed quite a lot of 465 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: potential errors being made. I really would like to appeal 466 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: to every leader just to really slow down a bit 467 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 1: on the rush to get the vaccine into as many 468 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: arms as possible and put more time into systematic planning 469 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: of what has to be a really effective global operations. David, 470 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: you went right, David, you went right where I want 471 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 1: to go. I want to go to you on this 472 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: and then the Cliff if we have time dr to borrow. 473 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: This is real simple. It's about federalism versus state distribution 474 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 1: as well. Do you have any optimism or any trek 475 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 1: record that the United States can provide a polio equivalent 476 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: or a diphtheria equivalent from a hundred years ago, a 477 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty years ago. Can we do that with 478 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: the state mess we're in versus a federal application. Well, 479 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 1: you will anticipate Tom that I'm I'm to have to say, 480 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: not only should they be national and state planning that 481 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 1: he's done from the center in the United States, there's 482 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: also got to be global planning. This is a global 483 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: pandemic accelerating just because we must have a global response, 484 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: because just because the time day. But I want to, 485 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 1: like Cliff in here to be sure he has a 486 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: voice in this cliff. Do you see any ability of 487 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 1: President elect Biden to create a more federal mandate in 488 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: America versus the state centric mandate of President Trump. I 489 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 1: think the President Biden president like Biden, is going to 490 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 1: have much more moral suasion capability, much more talent to 491 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: do that, much more commitment to do that. These are 492 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: state state programs. We have to get the funding to them, 493 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: we have to enable the infrastructure. But I do think 494 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: a big voice like Ms Merkel has done in Europe 495 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: is gonna probably make a difference in making this more successful. 496 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: The only hope we have, and I think we're gonna 497 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: get not to a good place, but to a much 498 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: better place than we are right now. We've got to 499 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: leave it there. We could go all the guess the 500 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 1: quality of this with the Top Risks of Eurasia Group. 501 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 1: We could do what we could do, like a ten 502 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: hour show today, Francine, maybe we ought to do that. 503 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: Do a ten hour show, an hour with Dr bar, 504 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: an hour with Mr Kupchin and uh and Ian Bremer. 505 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 1: It's gonna be great. Dr Nabarrow, don't be a stranger. 506 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us with the world 507 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: Health Organization. There's a special edition of the show this morning. 508 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 1: Francing and Lakwad in London. I'm Tom Keane in New 509 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: York and we've been doing this now for a good 510 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: number of years with Ian Bremer and Cliff Kupchin, Eurasia 511 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: Group chairman is with us right now the Top Risks 512 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: of two thousand twenty one, and I can tell you 513 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: that December of two thousand twenty was more than unusual, 514 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 1: which makes for must reading of their top risks. Look 515 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: for that release today by your Asia Group. It is 516 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: really terse, sharp reading on climate change, wonderful section that 517 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 1: I learned a lot, frankly on the hacking and cyber threats, 518 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 1: and I really want to draw your attention to their 519 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: oil and climate paragraphs. And of course, Daniel, you're going 520 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: to join us in the next hour. My book of 521 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 1: the year, the New Map. Last year the Top Risks 522 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 1: of Eurasia Group absolutely nailed the challenges of Europe, not 523 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: predicting a successful outcome to Brexit. It has come to pass. 524 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: I believe joining us now is a gentleman from Germany 525 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,960 Speaker 1: with immense perspective on this. Sigmar Gabriel is a former 526 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: German Foreign Affairs minister, but that barely touches upon his 527 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: domestic politics of Germany and his association with length of tenure, 528 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: going back to Billy Brant among others, and were thrilled 529 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 1: that Mr Gabriel could join us this morning. Sigmar Gabriel. 530 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 1: What will be the legacy of Chancellor miracle and particularly 531 00:31:54,120 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: the replacement of her European leadership christ and good morning 532 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 1: to everybody. Um. If you ask me how the Germans 533 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: and maybe others in Europe will look back to the 534 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: chanceorship of Angela Michael, I would say at first that 535 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 1: during her term it's at the end, it will be 536 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 1: sixteen years. She will be seen as a leader which 537 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: steered Germany through heavy waters in difficult crisis which we 538 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: were faced with. I remember when we started together at 539 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: the government two thousand thirteen. After a few weeks we 540 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: had the crimea crisis, then we had the crisis in Greece, 541 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 1: then the euro crisis at then the end of the 542 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 1: term the refugee crisis. So her her chanceorship will be 543 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 1: seen as a successful leading the country and leading Europe 544 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: through major crisis at the at the beginning of the century. 545 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: Click coption just since you've written the top risk, we 546 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 1: have of course seen a successful Brexit negotiation. How do 547 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: you and Dr Bremer perceive Europe in two thousand twenty one? 548 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 1: Is it fractured or can can it coalesce around a theme? Perhaps? 549 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: And say Mr mccong, we think that the main challenge 550 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 1: facing Europe is lack of leadership, that that after the 551 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,959 Speaker 1: real Queen of hero of Angelo Merkel steps down, mccram 552 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: will take over. He'll be as your episode pre eminent leader. Anyway, 553 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 1: he will be distracted by his own domestic politics. And 554 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,280 Speaker 1: and we fear that if we're more stimulus money is needed, 555 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 1: there's no sort of space for a creative new fiscal deal. 556 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,640 Speaker 1: That that foreign policy could get very complicated with Turks 557 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 1: in the Eastern Mediterranean, and that we could even see 558 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:57,160 Speaker 1: a resurgence of populism as the scar tissue of COVID 559 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 1: really bites into European economies. So where we come out 560 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 1: on Europe Sigma Gabriel, how do you think Europe should 561 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 1: actually engage with China? And depending on investments or a 562 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:14,320 Speaker 1: cooperation with China will weaken the relationship Europe has with 563 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:18,960 Speaker 1: the new Biden administration. My first of all, this is 564 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: not a really big agreement. And Europe and China is 565 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,800 Speaker 1: negotiating about an investment agreement since more than seven years, 566 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 1: and China always asked the Europeans to to negotiate about 567 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 1: a real free trade agreement, and the Europeans said no, 568 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 1: as long as investments from European countries in China are 569 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 1: in such difficult they as they were in the past, 570 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:51,160 Speaker 1: we will not be able to negotiate a real free 571 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:55,400 Speaker 1: trade agreement. So the precondition was to have a better 572 00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: and more secure environment for European investments in China. That's 573 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: that's first of all, the starting point to these negotiations. 574 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,800 Speaker 1: You're right looking to the US and the bipartisan approach 575 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: to China UM. The new President Joe Biden will be 576 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 1: not happy about this unilateral approach from from Europe to China. 577 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 1: On the on the other hand side, I think there 578 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 1: is enough room for for for a common approach between US, Europe, 579 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:34,359 Speaker 1: South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand towards China UM 580 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:41,919 Speaker 1: although the countries like Australian others had a much more 581 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 1: developed free trade agreement that the Europeans did. During the 582 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:52,399 Speaker 1: last week, so yes, it may be seen um as 583 00:35:52,520 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 1: a more strategic um autonomous approach from from Europe to China. 584 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 1: But but on the on the other hand, I would 585 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 1: say there's another room for maneuvers to join hands. Mr 586 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 1: Gabriel Cliff cooptation. There was talking about, you know, a 587 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 1: leadership vacuum in Europe once Angelo mercle leaves. Who's the 588 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 1: right person to replace mercle or even before that, we 589 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 1: we have a big vote on the CDU coming up 590 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 1: mid January, who's the right person to actually take on 591 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:32,320 Speaker 1: that role. I totally agree with what the Cliff said. 592 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,879 Speaker 1: There is no person who will be in the same 593 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 1: position in Germany and in Europe as well. Germany is 594 00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 1: now a period of transition. Uh Merkele will go out 595 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: of her office, Maybe she will more concentrated on Europe 596 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 1: as she did during the very hot time of the pandemic. 597 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 1: Maybe she will not so um involved in in the 598 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 1: German election campaign and more uh in in in in 599 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:13,320 Speaker 1: the European uh politics because there she is interested to 600 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:19,200 Speaker 1: have a long, long scene legacy. On the other handside, 601 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 1: France of course want to be the new leader of 602 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 1: Europe after miracle, but the country is in a very 603 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 1: difficult economic situation and uh and mccron has challenged in 604 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,800 Speaker 1: the country, so I don't think that he will be 605 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 1: so strong to replace Miracle in the leadership of Europe. 606 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 1: And by the way, the next elections in France are 607 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 1: on the horizon. So that's I think the difficult situation 608 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 1: in Europe. That's why Eurasia is right to put Europe 609 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: at one of the top risks of the year two 610 00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:04,919 Speaker 1: thousand twenty one. Cliff Cook, what does the Biden administration 611 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 1: actually need from Europe in this bit of what in 612 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,320 Speaker 1: their fight with China? Is there a role that Europe 613 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:16,359 Speaker 1: can play well President Biden. President like Biden has has 614 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,560 Speaker 1: rhetorically really distinguished himself from from current President Trump by 615 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,480 Speaker 1: arguing the need the multilateralize China policy, but to d 616 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 1: risk the US in a way with unilateral sanctions and 617 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 1: this head to head slug fest that we've been seeing 618 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 1: and bring in the EU, Japan, India encouraged China to 619 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 1: change these these you know, perceived unfair policies by putting 620 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,560 Speaker 1: a broader squeeze on them, and that is our fourth 621 00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:53,040 Speaker 1: risk actually at US China tensions broaden. Now the Biden 622 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:59,280 Speaker 1: people were openly discouraging Europe from this this this investment treaty, 623 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 1: this investment agreement, and it is going to be a setback. 624 00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,200 Speaker 1: I think they're going to need to find ways to 625 00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,040 Speaker 1: put it back together again to move forward with this, 626 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 1: with with this broad coalition that they have in mind. 627 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:16,359 Speaker 1: Uh and and the risk here is that we will 628 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,320 Speaker 1: see a global bidding war between Ching and Big and 629 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,799 Speaker 1: Joe Biden over over allies. Now that may be good 630 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 1: for the allies, but it will just increase tension I 631 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,840 Speaker 1: think between the US and and and trying. What we 632 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,520 Speaker 1: really need from Europe is whether the United States really 633 00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:33,359 Speaker 1: needs from Europe is a creative way that Europe can 634 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 1: still benefit from China's large and productive economy, but stay 635 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: in sync with with with the US striving to bring 636 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:42,640 Speaker 1: them bring China around. It's gonna be done difficult, Mr Gabriel. 637 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,919 Speaker 1: We're looking at the top risks that erais you group 638 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,479 Speaker 1: sees for two thousand and twenty one, and of course 639 00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 1: that's an international feel. But I've got to turn to 640 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,239 Speaker 1: the German election this year. It's a huge and important 641 00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:59,400 Speaker 1: generational election. And Chris writer of our Berlin operation, tells 642 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 1: me very simply that this could be your Conservatives in 643 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 1: the Greens together. That is unusual, to say the least. 644 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 1: How do you get a coalition developed in the new Germany, 645 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:17,440 Speaker 1: the future Germany? I would say the coalition between Conservatives 646 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:22,200 Speaker 1: and the Greens is something which should have happened four 647 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,640 Speaker 1: years ago. If you look to the German society, this 648 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 1: is the coalition the majority of the Germans want to have. 649 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,279 Speaker 1: Um it was not able because they needed for four 650 00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,840 Speaker 1: years ago the liberals and the rebels had the feeling 651 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,840 Speaker 1: that they would be the fifth wheel on the wagon, 652 00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,840 Speaker 1: and so that they decided not to join the government. 653 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 1: And that only was the reason that we have again 654 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:51,359 Speaker 1: as a coalition between Conservatives and Social Democrats. Normally, four 655 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: years ago we should have had a conservative green coalition 656 00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 1: at that time with the Liberals. Now I would say 657 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 1: the prospect tip is to have a coalition between Conservatives 658 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,800 Speaker 1: and the Greens without any party. They will need nobody 659 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:11,000 Speaker 1: and in in in the terms of German politics, it 660 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:15,680 Speaker 1: will look like the next Grand Coalition, but only the 661 00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,080 Speaker 1: second biggest party will not be the Social Democrats but 662 00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: the Greens. But so Mr Gabriel is a red red 663 00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 1: Green alliance actually possible. Who has the most to lose 664 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:32,320 Speaker 1: on how the pandemic was handled in Germany. Of course 665 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:37,480 Speaker 1: the government and and especially the person who is responsible 666 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,919 Speaker 1: in the government, Yan Spahn. That's the reason I think 667 00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:44,279 Speaker 1: that all the ideas that he would come out as 668 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,279 Speaker 1: the a new candidate for the for the chair of 669 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:52,120 Speaker 1: the Conservative Party is will not will not be the case. 670 00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,359 Speaker 1: He's in a in a tough political position. Of course, 671 00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,800 Speaker 1: um many criticism, what what what was done during the 672 00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,200 Speaker 1: last weeks and months. Uh, He's at the center of 673 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,319 Speaker 1: the criticis so I would say, uh, maybe he as 674 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,719 Speaker 1: a person is in the biggest risk to lose, Not 675 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:17,080 Speaker 1: Angela Merkel and not I would say not the Conservative 676 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,160 Speaker 1: Party as a whole. They will go down a bit 677 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,040 Speaker 1: when people recognize that Miracle will not be the next chancellor. Man, 678 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:29,920 Speaker 1: you must know, everybody in the political arena knows that 679 00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:34,560 Speaker 1: Miracle will not be the next chance but ordinary citizens 680 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,879 Speaker 1: are not very much aware that for the first time 681 00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,400 Speaker 1: they will have to choose between different candidates for the 682 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,960 Speaker 1: chances office. But at the beginning of spring, people more 683 00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,600 Speaker 1: and more were recognized and then the Conservative they will 684 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:55,600 Speaker 1: lose uh some percentage in the opinion polls. But at 685 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,880 Speaker 1: the end the Conservative Party will stay at the biggest 686 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,520 Speaker 1: party and Gemen and you will not have a chance 687 00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,440 Speaker 1: to get a coalition but without them, So I'm I 688 00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:10,800 Speaker 1: don't think that that that is any opportunity for a 689 00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:14,040 Speaker 1: Green red red coalition with the Greens and the Chances Office. 690 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,719 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the insights, Mar Gabriel. They're 691 00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,080 Speaker 1: a former German for Affairs Minister. On Cliff Kupchin of 692 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:28,799 Speaker 1: Eurasia with his top risks on good morning everyone, your 693 00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,279 Speaker 1: Raisor Group, the top risks of two thousand twenty one. 694 00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,920 Speaker 1: I've got fifteen ways to go here with Francis Lacroix 695 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,440 Speaker 1: on those top risks. Right now we can look at 696 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:40,120 Speaker 1: the markets up the ascent of the markets for the halves. 697 00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,480 Speaker 1: It's a beautiful chart in Eurasia Group on American income 698 00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:47,680 Speaker 1: disparity and income inequality. Ian Bremer with us right now, 699 00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,480 Speaker 1: Eurasia Group President, and and I want to fold in 700 00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,640 Speaker 1: here something you were so pressing on, and that is 701 00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:55,960 Speaker 1: China and of course a stronger Reran Membi is a 702 00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:59,360 Speaker 1: single chart here about you know, crouching dollar in the 703 00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,520 Speaker 1: hidden wheak no that we've seen in the dollar right now, 704 00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,719 Speaker 1: Dr Bremer, part of this is also the politics of 705 00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:10,160 Speaker 1: China is noted by the two months absence of Jack 706 00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 1: Ma within capitalism and within his business affairs. What is 707 00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:22,279 Speaker 1: the symbolism of Jack Ma, unreported to the China US dialogue. Yeah, 708 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:26,680 Speaker 1: it's quite something. I mean, Jack Ma basically has done 709 00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:33,200 Speaker 1: a better job of antagonizing powerful actors than probably any 710 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:37,239 Speaker 1: other individual in the world. And you know, that's a 711 00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,360 Speaker 1: pretty dangerous thing to do. It's not illegal, but it's dangerous. 712 00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,919 Speaker 1: I mean you can ask navalni Uh, the opposition leader 713 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:49,600 Speaker 1: that was poisoned in Russia about that. Um, it's quite something. 714 00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,920 Speaker 1: He's you know, mys incredibly wealthy, he's prescient, he's a 715 00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,120 Speaker 1: hero for the average Chinese, and that makes him a 716 00:44:56,239 --> 00:45:00,720 Speaker 1: threat and unacceptable to Jun Paying and the leaders of China. 717 00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 1: And also the fact that the Chinese government has decided 718 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:06,680 Speaker 1: and you look at their coming five your plan, this 719 00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:11,920 Speaker 1: dual circulation idea where they focus more on domestic consumption 720 00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:16,960 Speaker 1: but also on securing ing Chinese supply chain for critical 721 00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:21,400 Speaker 1: strategic sectors. And that because they see that the Americans 722 00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,800 Speaker 1: on five G on Huawei, that they've been hitting the 723 00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:29,240 Speaker 1: Chinese pretty hard, and they know that financial technology, fintech 724 00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:33,000 Speaker 1: where you know and financial that jack Ma has been 725 00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:37,759 Speaker 1: dominating that is critical strategically to the success of the 726 00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,480 Speaker 1: Chinese economy. The Chinese government that means they want control. 727 00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:44,719 Speaker 1: So the fact that jack Ma has said these things 728 00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,040 Speaker 1: at the same time that this is that this fight 729 00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,960 Speaker 1: with the Americans coming down the pike has really created 730 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,759 Speaker 1: big problems global finances, global finance. Certainly the purview of 731 00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:58,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Dr Bremer, what is the responsibility of Western banks 732 00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,200 Speaker 1: and particularly America can too big to fail banks within 733 00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,040 Speaker 1: the US Chinese relationship, what should be their action plan? 734 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:10,120 Speaker 1: For example, on Hong Kong. I mean, the banks that 735 00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,279 Speaker 1: are in Hong Kong aren't going anywhere, uh. They they 736 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,200 Speaker 1: they understand if your HSBC, if your standard chartered, you 737 00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:21,600 Speaker 1: understand that Hong Kong as a critical node for doing 738 00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:26,040 Speaker 1: business in mainland China is much more valuable to you 739 00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,759 Speaker 1: and your global business than standing up for Hong Kong 740 00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:35,399 Speaker 1: as a Western uh place where your expats can feel 741 00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,600 Speaker 1: comfortable that there's rule of law. So they're dealing with 742 00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,840 Speaker 1: the fact that Hong Kong no longer has a separate 743 00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,840 Speaker 1: political system. There is no longer any democratic opposition in 744 00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,360 Speaker 1: the leg CO in Hong Kong, there is no longer 745 00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,600 Speaker 1: any capacity UM to speak uh your mind in a 746 00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,320 Speaker 1: free and open media. In Hong Kong. It is no 747 00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,839 Speaker 1: longer a Western environment in any way, shape or form. 748 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,640 Speaker 1: The one country that's done something, it's not the banks. 749 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,640 Speaker 1: The fact that the UK. Everyone's talked about how many 750 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,880 Speaker 1: mistakes they've made, but they are actually giving a lot 751 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:12,440 Speaker 1: of passports out UM to Hong Kong. Nationals that you 752 00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:16,080 Speaker 1: know are are basically getting done over by China, by 753 00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,799 Speaker 1: the Chinese government not willing to support one system, one state, 754 00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:23,360 Speaker 1: two systems. At number two for your top risks, you 755 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,719 Speaker 1: have long COVID. Are we underestimating how quickly our economies 756 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,440 Speaker 1: can bounce back once we have the vaccines? UM? I 757 00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:36,279 Speaker 1: don't think we're underestimating that in the developed world. I 758 00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,680 Speaker 1: think that the United States rebound will be fast and 759 00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,320 Speaker 1: very robust. It's just that it's not going to affect 760 00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,839 Speaker 1: as many Americans as I think we would like. UM. 761 00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,839 Speaker 1: In other words, in the United States. In Europe, there's 762 00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,120 Speaker 1: gonna be much more division of are you in the 763 00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:56,400 Speaker 1: knowledge economy are you not? Are you able to socially 764 00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,640 Speaker 1: distance are you not? Are your jobs coming back? Have 765 00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:03,160 Speaker 1: you in evicted from your from your home. How can 766 00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:06,200 Speaker 1: you handle the closure of schools for a year? These 767 00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,520 Speaker 1: things are going to have major knock on consequences for 768 00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:14,560 Speaker 1: inequality and political and social instability across the United States 769 00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,280 Speaker 1: and Europe. Where for the developing world, for emerging markets, 770 00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:19,880 Speaker 1: And we talked with Dan You're going a little bit 771 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,720 Speaker 1: about this in the last segment. Um they're not getting 772 00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,880 Speaker 1: vaccines as quickly as the United States and Europe is. 773 00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,879 Speaker 1: They're not bouncing back as quickly, and their budgets are 774 00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:33,160 Speaker 1: under a lot more strain. So you have divisions inside 775 00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,239 Speaker 1: the wealthy economies, and then you have the growing gap 776 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,560 Speaker 1: between rich and poor countries in the world, both of 777 00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:45,400 Speaker 1: which play out as long covid in Ian. Thank you 778 00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:47,480 Speaker 1: so much, I and Bremer there of Eurasia group with 779 00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:52,040 Speaker 1: the top risks of your age. Thanks for listening to 780 00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:56,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 781 00:48:56,680 --> 00:49:02,520 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 782 00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,839 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane Before the podcast, you can 783 00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,120 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio