WEBVTT - Jim Bianco; Bianco Research Talks Consumer Confidence Report

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us now Yeoman's Duty Early Morning, California, and James

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<v Speaker 2>Bianco joins his president and founder at Bianco Research, Jim

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<v Speaker 2>the arch call. Here is your sticky inflation report. Let

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<v Speaker 2>me digress from that to the theme of the morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I've heard the word uncertainty forty seven and a half

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<v Speaker 2>times this morning. Is uncertainty an opportunity or not?

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<v Speaker 3>No? I think it's an opportunity. We've overdone the uncertainty thing.

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<v Speaker 3>A bunch of academics from Stanford have put together an

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<v Speaker 3>uncertainty index, and last week it hit an all time high.

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<v Speaker 4>Now, let me restate that we.

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<v Speaker 3>Have more uncertainty now than we did during the COVID

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<v Speaker 3>shutdown during nine to eleven or during the financial crisis.

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<v Speaker 3>Now is more than a certain period. It isn't we're

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<v Speaker 3>overdoing it right now. Everybody's gotten to the point where

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<v Speaker 3>we're talking about the end of US exceptionalism, which was

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<v Speaker 3>a term invented two hundred years ago by Alex de Dopeville.

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<v Speaker 3>So I don't understand why we're getting ourselves all worked

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<v Speaker 3>up that this isn't just a ten percent correction in

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<v Speaker 3>the stock market. But this is the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>American experience right now. So this is the type of

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<v Speaker 3>environment where bottoms are made in markets, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>that's what we've done last week, and it's being confirmed

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<v Speaker 3>also by interest rates to ten year yield also making

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<v Speaker 3>a one month high today.

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<v Speaker 2>The Stanford people doing this include Nicholas Bloom, who is

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<v Speaker 2>definitive on work from home. This goes back eleven years

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<v Speaker 2>to have foundational paper fluctuations in uncertainty. So when is

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<v Speaker 2>the when Jim Bianco on a time basis, how do

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<v Speaker 2>you know when to take the opportunity of uncertainty and invest.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you know that's a good point because usually you

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<v Speaker 3>want to wait until you get to kind of the

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<v Speaker 3>overdone pace. And fortunately this time we got this index

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<v Speaker 3>that Baker, Bloom and Davis have put together that.

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<v Speaker 4>Is added, like I said, a forty year high.

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<v Speaker 3>We've also got you know, talk over the top talk

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<v Speaker 3>I think about the end of US exceptionalism, not understanding

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<v Speaker 3>what that word means. And now all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 3>two hundred years of you know, the American experience has

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<v Speaker 3>been reduced to a bad quarter in the SMP and

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<v Speaker 3>it's over. And so it's that kind of environment that

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<v Speaker 3>you would look for a bottom in the markets, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's what we've seen in the last couple of weeks

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<v Speaker 3>while the stock market the SMP has rallied about five percent.

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<v Speaker 3>And yes, you're right, it's rare that you get it

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<v Speaker 3>that is extreme, as we've seen in the last ten

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<v Speaker 3>days or so, but at least it's been a little

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<v Speaker 3>easier to identify this time around.

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<v Speaker 1>So, Jim, I'm assuming that the recession scenario is not

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<v Speaker 1>in your forecast.

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<v Speaker 4>No, I don't think it is.

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<v Speaker 3>The You know, even when you hear economists talk about it,

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<v Speaker 3>they'll say the soft data is very weak, but the

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<v Speaker 3>hard data isn't, meaning the actual economic data is actually

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<v Speaker 3>holding up in the opinion data is what's falling apart. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>Typically the opinion data lags the soft data the hard data,

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<v Speaker 3>excuse me, meaning that first the economy turns down. First,

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<v Speaker 3>people lose their jobs. First, they stop spending. Then they

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<v Speaker 3>turn pessimistic. But when they typically turn pessimistic first, when

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<v Speaker 3>no one's losing their jobs and no one has stopped spending,

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<v Speaker 3>they usually doesn't last. And that's why I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to have a recession, at least at this.

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<v Speaker 5>Point, jimmianco with a thrill that he could be with us.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't say enough, folks about his call for sticky inflation.

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<v Speaker 5>He was lonely a number of years ago when that occurred.

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<v Speaker 2>Good Morning on your commute, ccrastination on the left coast,

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<v Speaker 2>Jim beyond.

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<v Speaker 5>Good morning, an Apple.

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<v Speaker 2>Car play and or a auto and serious ex Sam

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<v Speaker 2>Channel one twenty one, Paul.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, Jim Thomas, just mentioning that, you know, he and

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<v Speaker 1>I and Lisa Mitay, we hear a lot from our

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<v Speaker 1>guests about uncertainty in the marketplace, and the market doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>like uncertainty. How do you let me talk to your

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<v Speaker 1>clients and they're trying to figure out what this tweet means,

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<v Speaker 1>what that tweet means, what this pol pronouncement means. How

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<v Speaker 1>do you suggest they navigate all that?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think what they have to start with

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<v Speaker 3>is is the premise that when Trump was elected president

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<v Speaker 3>and his cabinet and his eighty odd million voters, that

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<v Speaker 3>they voted for change, and that's what we're going to get.

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<v Speaker 3>And whenever I hear people tell me, well, they're very

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<v Speaker 3>worried about the tariffs, They're very worried, you know, about

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<v Speaker 3>the payment for security that we're demanding out of Europe,

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<v Speaker 3>or maybe the Sovereign Wealth Fund or all three. I

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<v Speaker 3>kind of go back to them and say, what do

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<v Speaker 3>you what do you think we should do?

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<v Speaker 4>If we don't do that, going back.

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<v Speaker 3>To the status quo of two trillion dollar deficits and

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<v Speaker 3>massive treasury borrowing, that's what they're trying to move away from.

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<v Speaker 3>So I've argued that we have to give this policy

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<v Speaker 3>a chance to see if it works. Now if it

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't work, then we'll have to try a different type

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<v Speaker 3>of policy. But I don't think we're going back to

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<v Speaker 3>the status quo. And that's really where I think most

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<v Speaker 3>people have struggling is is this is not what we're

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<v Speaker 3>used to, and so we're a little bit unsure of

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<v Speaker 3>where we're going.

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<v Speaker 4>Because it's new territory.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't think we're going back, and that's probably

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<v Speaker 3>the most important message.

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<v Speaker 5>Do you see percent three to one?

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<v Speaker 4>Jim Banco?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you perceive continued use of cash by companies? Kim

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<v Speaker 2>Dawnston was in and we're arguing about you know, selected

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<v Speaker 2>mag seven is a is a utility holding because of

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<v Speaker 2>free cash flow and quality of free cashlow.

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<v Speaker 5>Do you agree with that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean cash is taking out a very important

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<v Speaker 3>role in this this market. Yeah, and largely because it's

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<v Speaker 3>got such an attractive yield. Right now, a typical money

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<v Speaker 3>market fund will yield four percent, and that is more

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<v Speaker 3>than the inflation rate. I'm still in the sticky inflation

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<v Speaker 3>rate camp, Tom, but I'm in the three percent inflation

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<v Speaker 3>rate camp. So a money market fund is going to

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<v Speaker 3>give you a real yield, a yield above the inflation rate.

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<v Speaker 3>So any company that can throw off cash, cash is

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<v Speaker 3>a valuable thing right now.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not trash like it was, you know, five years ago.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not Tina.

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<v Speaker 3>There is no alternative to cash like it was pre COVID.

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<v Speaker 3>Right now, cash is a competitive investment to performing the

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<v Speaker 3>stock market this year then we've seen in recent years.

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<v Speaker 3>So anything that can give you cash is going to

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<v Speaker 3>be a positive.

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<v Speaker 5>This is the math of that, Paul.

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<v Speaker 2>You do triple leverage four percent as twelve percent grows,

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<v Speaker 2>I take up my two hundred and ten basis points,

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<v Speaker 2>and everybody's happy.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody's happy.

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<v Speaker 4>The way it works, that's Jim.

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<v Speaker 1>That ten percent pullback we had in that peak to

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<v Speaker 1>trough s and P five hundred was SETI. I guess

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<v Speaker 1>what some would suggest is a kind of a healthy

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<v Speaker 1>pullback in an otherwise longer term bull market. Was it

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<v Speaker 1>something different?

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<v Speaker 4>I think it was a typical pullback.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, you'll get one about every eighteen months or so.

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<v Speaker 3>The last one before this month was October of twenty three,

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<v Speaker 3>so that.

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<v Speaker 4>Was fifteen months ago.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, that's about what the calendar would expect us

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<v Speaker 3>to do, and we should do about two five percent

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<v Speaker 3>pullbacks a year in the market.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the typical type of action.

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<v Speaker 3>So for the moment right now, this looks like, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>a typical pullback.

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<v Speaker 5>We're right.

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<v Speaker 3>We had a catalyst with it, just like in October

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<v Speaker 3>of twenty three. The catalyst was a five percent ten

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<v Speaker 3>year yield, and that's all we wound up doing, was

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<v Speaker 3>the was the ten percent pullback, and then the market

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<v Speaker 3>kind of stabilized and it started to lift off from there.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think this is what we're seeing right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Giving that backdrop, Jim, where are you suggesting that people

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<v Speaker 1>look for opportunity over the next six and twelve months,

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<v Speaker 1>given kind of what we know about some of the

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<v Speaker 1>uncertainty that's going to be I guess surrounding a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of these markets going forward.

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<v Speaker 3>So while I've been very optimistic, look we've bottomed, the

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<v Speaker 3>market's going to recover and the like, I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to necessarily blast through to all time highs.

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<v Speaker 3>It may, it may technically make an all time high,

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<v Speaker 3>but you're not gone.

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<v Speaker 4>I think are the years where the S and p's

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<v Speaker 4>gonn give you twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think the aforementioned cache and the bond market

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<v Speaker 3>at five percent, yields in the bond market, I think

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<v Speaker 3>are going to provide you a competitive investment to this

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<v Speaker 3>stock market right now. And that's because as the market

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<v Speaker 3>makes it back to the all time high, I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>be surprised if we start to see yields push well

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<v Speaker 3>above four fifty towards four to seventy five, And that'll

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<v Speaker 3>be the newer concern for investors, should we have to

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<v Speaker 3>bring stocks not go up.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you see on the labor economy? Your purview

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<v Speaker 2>from Chicago, La Diane Swank is different. You're not within

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<v Speaker 2>three idiots zip codes in Manhattan. The FED models out

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<v Speaker 2>to that singular headline four point four percent. Do you

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<v Speaker 2>model out to a higher unemployment rate?

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<v Speaker 4>Slightly higher unemployment rate?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the biggest thing that we're going to struggle

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<v Speaker 3>with is going to be the impact of the slow

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<v Speaker 3>down of migration into the country and what that means

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<v Speaker 3>for change of population and everything. And I understand the

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<v Speaker 3>argument that we might see higher unemployment rates as we

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<v Speaker 3>move forward, but ps fact that it's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>overstated the amount of labor weakness that we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>see from the labor market, and that it's probably going

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<v Speaker 3>to hold up much better.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a huge deal.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, Jim Tarzan Slack published, i believe yesterday or

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<v Speaker 2>the day before his new run rate on non farm

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<v Speaker 2>payrolls is sub one hundred thousand. Is your new run

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<v Speaker 2>rate because of a diminished immigration sub one hundred thousand.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it's going to be that low because

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<v Speaker 3>typically if you're looking at, you know, the migrant workforce,

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<v Speaker 3>the migrant workforce is usually not a workforce that gets

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<v Speaker 3>a W two, that has withholding taxes.

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<v Speaker 4>That's who gets measured in the payroll report.

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<v Speaker 3>So I suspect that that will stay a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>stronger now in the household report. They can get picked

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<v Speaker 3>up in that and that might show up as a

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<v Speaker 3>higher unemployment rate. So I'm with them at least that

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<v Speaker 3>there'll be some weakness because of it, but I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to show up in the other report, the

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<v Speaker 3>houshole report and unemployment as opposed to lower payrolls.

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<v Speaker 1>Jim, given all this backdrop here, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>our federal Reserve? How do you think they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>proceed for the remainder of this year?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think the May meeting is the most

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<v Speaker 3>important meeting of the year, because if they can't find

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<v Speaker 3>a reason to cut rates in May, there is no

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<v Speaker 3>reason to cut rates in May, because they've got the

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<v Speaker 3>ten percent correction, they've got the handwringing about you know, tariffs,

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<v Speaker 3>they've got to talk about a recession. And if we

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<v Speaker 3>get to that May seventh meeting and they still can't

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<v Speaker 3>find a reason to cut rates, then they're done for

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<v Speaker 3>the year.

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<v Speaker 4>And that the rate cut cycle ended last December. So

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think they will, And I think that this.

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<v Speaker 3>Means that they're pretty much on hold at least until

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<v Speaker 3>the next cycle emergence. Maybe something else comes along that

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<v Speaker 3>we can see economy, or we start talking about rate

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<v Speaker 3>hikes later this year and too next year.

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<v Speaker 2>For all of you across the Nation joining US tow

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<v Speaker 2>surveillance Somalia. James Bianco Jim out of Napa Valley. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I look at the Screaming Eagle in Oakville and it's

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<v Speaker 2>really really exceptional. But it is a different tinge than

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<v Speaker 2>the wines of ruugh Of in Napa Valley, aren't they?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, you know, this is a fantastic place to be.

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<v Speaker 3>If anybody can ever come out here and sip wine

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<v Speaker 3>and enjoy the weather, I highly recommend it.

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<v Speaker 2>Which which wine? Which beverage of the wine do you

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<v Speaker 2>do you like best? I mean, is there certain nuance

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<v Speaker 2>to the Napa Velly wine that Michael Barr should know about?

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<v Speaker 4>You know they all do.

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<v Speaker 3>There's there's vineyards every half mile here, and each one

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<v Speaker 3>is very different, and so you know, this is the

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<v Speaker 3>wine connoisseurs heaven to be.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it as gorgeous as that apples screen on Sequoia.

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<v Speaker 2>Everybody's got this now in their computer screen. It is

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<v Speaker 2>this gorgeous view of I guess Napa Valley?

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<v Speaker 5>Is it that beautiful?

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<v Speaker 3>Jim Bure, Yes, it is. I wish it wasn't still

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<v Speaker 3>dark out. I'd flip the camera around and show.

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<v Speaker 4>You the view. It's it's unbelievable.

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<v Speaker 2>You're a trouper to be with its necessarily nine seven

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<v Speaker 2>six fine is that? Six fifteen yes, six fifteen in

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<v Speaker 2>the morning. Thank you, Jim beyoncle