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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. We're growing into spect I'm

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Speaker 2: saying it's a cash touch down.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right. That is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kaba and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, welcome to the week six XFL Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 2: the x Flex on the Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, part of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network. This is actually the two hundredth episode we've

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Speaker 2: done since reconfiguring everything and launching the Action Network podcast

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Speaker 2: in June. Thanks to everyone for listening. In January, we

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Speaker 2: won the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association Award for Best

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Speaker 2: Betting Podcasts or Radio Show. There are a lot of

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Speaker 2: great podcasts and shows out there, and we want to

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Speaker 2: thank you for listening to ours, and we know that

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Speaker 2: we wouldn't win the FSGA Award if not for the listeners,

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Speaker 2: so thank you very much. Also shout out to our

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Speaker 2: producer Matt Mitchell aka Uncle Mitch. And now we are

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Speaker 2: on to the next two hundred shows. In this episode,

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Speaker 2: we're breaking down the week six XFL lines. We're looking

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Speaker 2: at the futures market, touching on our favorite DFS plays,

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Speaker 2: and highlighting our favorite bets with me as Sean Corner,

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Speaker 2: our director of predictive analytics. Our guy Chris RAYBONND is out,

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Speaker 2: but he will be back next week. Sean, Let's jump

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Speaker 2: into it. The first game we have on the slate

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Speaker 2: Houston Roughnecks at the New York Guardians. The Roughnecks right

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Speaker 2: now six and a half point favorites a forty seven

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Speaker 2: point over under, although if you are interested in the

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Speaker 2: Roughnecks and that over that they tend to hit, you

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Speaker 2: can find it at forty six and a half out

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Speaker 2: there at a couple of books. So something to keep

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Speaker 2: an ion. Sean, where are you leaning?

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Speaker 1: So? I had this one as Houston minus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, So I think there is some value there,

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Speaker 1: which is a bit surprising because I feel like the

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Speaker 1: past four weeks I've been showing value against Houston's opponents.

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Speaker 1: It's just one of those things where everybody realizes they're

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Speaker 1: the number one team in the league, so we're going

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Speaker 1: to see their lines inflated pretty much every week. But

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Speaker 1: I think this week, I think you can get some

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Speaker 1: value on them. New York's had a good run in

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Speaker 1: the past couple weeks, but I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be short lived. That the underlying data still isn't quite

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Speaker 1: there for them, and I don't think they're a team

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Speaker 1: that's really built to hang with Houston, So I think

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Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be a tough matchup for them to

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Speaker 1: you know, keep up with Houston or even come back.

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Speaker 1: Louis Prez has had the benefit of you know, solid

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Speaker 1: defense past couple weeks and just playing with the lead,

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Speaker 1: so I think this matchup could pose problems. If if

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Speaker 1: this were NFL, I would say, hurry up and get

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Speaker 1: my six and a half. But really with XFL, we

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Speaker 1: don't really have that key number seven. So I like

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Speaker 1: them six and a half. I'd probably still bet I'm

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Speaker 1: at seven, But like I said, I think Houston should

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Speaker 1: be about seven and a half here, and I think

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Speaker 1: we're just getting them on a week where that the

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Speaker 1: market is liking the opponent a little bit too much.

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Speaker 1: And when it comes to DFS, taking PJ Walker, Cam

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Speaker 1: Phillips and Nick Haley is just an automatic three man stack.

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Speaker 1: If you do something like that, it's gonna be super chalky.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty easy to be contrarion elsewhere, but when it

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Speaker 1: comes to XFL, there really aren't many players that you

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Speaker 1: should even spend up for. But those three are just

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Speaker 1: so consistent week to week there's almost no reason to

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Speaker 1: fad him right now. So I'm gonna have way more

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Speaker 1: lineups with them in it, and just trying to get

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Speaker 1: more contraying with the other pieces. Maybe the running back

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Speaker 1: you can go contraying, or the other receiver take a

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Speaker 1: tight end, but I think just to have a solid core,

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Speaker 1: I think having those three players in a stack makes

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Speaker 1: sense this week.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on MOBILEI? Because he was for

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Speaker 2: me a lock in cash games last week. Of course,

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Speaker 2: he was very close to the minimum price, especially on

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Speaker 2: DraftKings last week. Now he's at fifty five hundred. I

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Speaker 2: think he's basically stolen Sammy Coates's job. And we don't

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Speaker 2: know for sure that Sammy Coates is even playing this week.

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Speaker 2: So if MOBILEI is the guy who's out there running

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Speaker 2: as that other perimeter wide receiver and four wide receiver sets,

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Speaker 2: I think he's pretty attractive in fifty five hundred.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely that that would be one way to kind

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Speaker 1: of make this stack a little bit contrlling. Does this

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Speaker 1: go Walker Phillips and Mobili or Walker Holly and Mobli.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, he he played every single passing down last week,

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Speaker 1: so that's huge, And yeah, Sammy Coach was out, so

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Speaker 1: that that was a huge part. But also klil Lewis

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Speaker 1: only played about seventy percent of passing downs. He was

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Speaker 1: a bit banged up, so it's one of those things

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Speaker 1: that's pretty vulnerable. We could see Mobley go back down

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Speaker 1: to his you know, sixty five percent or so snapshare,

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Speaker 1: but in this offense, that's still plenty to hit value.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, if coach is out again, Mobile is gonna

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Speaker 1: be pretty much a free square again. And then you

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Speaker 1: have to consider stacking four Houston players. It's I mean,

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Speaker 1: it seems so crazy and you hate to be that chalky,

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Speaker 1: but the way this league is shaping up like you

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Speaker 1: have to do that. So yeah, I love Mobley as well,

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Speaker 1: especially if coaches out again.

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Speaker 2: This is maybe the first week where I didn't look

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Speaker 2: at the board and immediately want to bet multiple games.

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Speaker 2: This was really the only one and it was of course,

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Speaker 2: you know, the over the Roughnecks scoring the most points

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Speaker 2: in the league, you know, allowing close to the most

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Speaker 2: points in the league, even though they have you know,

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Speaker 2: I think a big play defense. They get lots of sacks,

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Speaker 2: you know, get lots of interceptions, but they also allow

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Speaker 2: some big plays and opposing offenses just know that they're

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Speaker 2: gonna have to score points to try to keep up

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Speaker 2: with the Roughnecks. So I think they play a little

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Speaker 2: more aggressively. And so, you know, forty six and a

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Speaker 2: half forty seven, I do like the over. There the

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Speaker 2: you know, the Roughnecks are four and one to the over,

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Speaker 2: and you know, they're basically, ah, you know, a Philip

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Speaker 2: Nelson fumble at the goal line away, you know, a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago from being five and zero to

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Speaker 2: the over. And so even though I don't really have

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Speaker 2: much respect for the Guardians and their offense what they're

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Speaker 2: able to do, I still think they're probably able to

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Speaker 2: score enough points. And of course I think the Roughnecks

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Speaker 2: will be able to score enough points to get this

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Speaker 2: game to the over. But that's really the one bet

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Speaker 2: I've made. And I think there's a bigger question about

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Speaker 2: home field advantage. And then now this is going to

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Speaker 2: be potentially complicated with the coronavirus and whether you know,

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Speaker 2: teams end up playing some games without an audience there.

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Speaker 2: But how how many points right now roughly are you

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Speaker 2: assigning to home field advantage because to me, that's a

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Speaker 2: big distinguisher in a lot of the lines that I

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Speaker 2: have versus the lines that I see in the market

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I personally have it around three. I think

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Speaker 1: we need a bigger sample size to really amp it up.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, there could be many different reasons for that.

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Speaker 1: You know. The thing with XFL is the coaches are

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Speaker 1: able to talk to the players, every single player up

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Speaker 1: until the ball is snapped. So I think that could

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Speaker 1: have an impact. If if the crowd's allowed, like we've

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Speaker 1: seen in Saint Louis or Seattle, you know that that

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Speaker 1: could have an impact if players are used to hearing

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Speaker 1: exactly what they should do up before the you know,

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Speaker 1: up until the play snap. So there's things like that.

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Speaker 1: Travel you know, these these organizations are still new, so

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Speaker 1: it might not be as clean as the NFL traveling

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Speaker 1: schedule or whatever. But yeah, there's something with XFL where

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Speaker 1: it does seem like the home team does have a

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Speaker 1: pretty significant advantage. I'm just not willing to make it

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Speaker 1: more than you know, an NFL two and a half

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Speaker 1: or three quite yet, but yeah, this week with coronavirus,

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Speaker 1: that could be interesting if we see some games with

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Speaker 1: no fans. I'm a bit worried about the game in

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Speaker 1: Seattle because Seattle has been hit pretty hard by it.

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Speaker 1: I could if there were going to be a game

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Speaker 1: that would potentially have no fans, that would be the game.

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Speaker 1: So I would you know, be factoring that in when

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Speaker 1: you're making your bets right now, that that could potentially

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Speaker 1: be a game where they're playing in front of zero people.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see how much of an impact fans are

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Speaker 1: if things like that happen. Starting this week.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the next game on the slate.

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Speaker 2: We have the Saint Louis BattleHawks three point favorites at

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Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Vipers, and we see an over under

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Speaker 2: of forty two points. I said three points, you can

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Speaker 2: find it at three. It's three and a half now

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Speaker 2: in some places I'm seeing in the market, Sean, where

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Speaker 2: are you on that game?

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Speaker 1: Well, I have Tampa Bay as just two point underdogs

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Speaker 1: at home, so I mean I'm probably showing a little

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Speaker 1: bit of value taking him as a you know, field

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Speaker 1: goal underdog. But still these two teams, man, you know,

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis on the road last week against DC totally flopped.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams are pretty volatile. It's been hard to

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Speaker 1: peg them lately. As we remember, you know, at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the year, Tampa Bay had the highest season

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Speaker 1: win total and Saint Louis is one of the lowest.

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Speaker 1: So I feel like after five weeks we've been we've

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Speaker 1: just accepted that Tampa Bay is one of the worst

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Speaker 1: teams in Saint Louis is one of the best. But

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Speaker 1: last week, you know, we saw it mix up a

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Speaker 1: little bit, and I'm just gonna stay away from this spread. Again.

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Speaker 1: I think both teams are a little too vuleratile for

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Speaker 1: me to bet on this, but I do think there

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Speaker 1: is value on the under. I have it closer to

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Speaker 1: like forty for this game, and it's at forty two,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know, a pretty key number when it

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Speaker 1: comes to football totals. But I can see both teams.

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Speaker 1: Both teams are pretty strong in terms of the running game,

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Speaker 1: and I think both teams, if it's close, which should be,

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Speaker 1: are going to lean towards the run and it's just

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Speaker 1: going to be more of a ball control, possession type game.

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Speaker 1: And you know these teams, you know they we saw

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Speaker 1: them pick up the pace when they played a team

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Speaker 1: like Houston or whatever. But these teams both like to

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Speaker 1: play for you know, lower scoring environment, run heavy type

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Speaker 1: of football. So I think that that combined, both teams

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Speaker 1: will be kind of playing towards the under here. So

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Speaker 1: I like the under forty two and for dfs, just again,

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Speaker 1: Reese Horn and Jalen Tolliver, those guys are the guys

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Speaker 1: I've been kind of targeting as mid priced wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: Last week, they were about a thousand dollars cheaper and

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Speaker 1: both went for nine yards and a touchdown. So again,

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Speaker 1: just when it comes to these three receivers on Tampa Bay,

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Speaker 1: take your pick of one of them. Every week, one

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Speaker 1: of them will probably have a good game. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying they play both, but they still present decent value

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Speaker 1: even though they're about one to one point five came

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Speaker 1: more expensive than last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Jalen Toliver, you know, was was definitely the guy

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Speaker 2: last week that a lot of people leaned on it

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Speaker 2: in cash games. I'm looking you know, you mentioned that

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Speaker 2: these teams do like to play a little bit faster,

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Speaker 2: but they do lean on the run. It's interesting that,

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Speaker 2: you know, for them, lots of lots of plays per

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Speaker 2: game don't necessarily translate into lots of points per game.

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Speaker 2: But these are the teams, you know, at this point

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Speaker 2: in the season, who have the most plays per game

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Speaker 2: in the league. So, you know, going against each other,

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Speaker 2: we could still see a lot of offensive plays per

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Speaker 2: game and still not hit the over from the DFS perspective.

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Speaker 2: For Saint Louis, is there anyone who stands out to you?

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Speaker 2: I know Jordan tom who you know quarterback, was kind

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Speaker 2: of getting some love earlier in the season because he

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Speaker 2: does have that rushing ability. He hasn't played quite up

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Speaker 2: to his potential in recent weeks. Any thoughts on the

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Speaker 2: guys there for Saint Louis.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really having any Saint Louis players pop up

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Speaker 1: the Amian Washington as a guy that there's always upside there,

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Speaker 1: but there's just better value elsewhere, and especially at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Swalker all the way. And if you want to go

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Speaker 1: for a higher upside rushing QB right now, it's DJ Daniels. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So that's why I'm not really getting much Tammi right now.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, he was definitely the stud for the first

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Speaker 1: you know, five weeks, but this week I'm probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna have any shares.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting in that I'm still, you know, for

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Speaker 2: the season, relatively optimistic on the battle Hawks, but for DFS,

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Speaker 2: I'm still not really seeing anything that I actually want

242
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Speaker 2: to invest in. Thoughts on Taylor Cornelius and what we've

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Speaker 2: seen out of him recently, I mean, I don't think

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Speaker 2: you would really want to go to him for DFS,

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Speaker 2: at least in cash. Maybe for tournaments he could be

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Speaker 2: an option, but it seems as if he's at least

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Speaker 2: helped us stabilize the quarterback position there for Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: over the past couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like this past year, especially with the NFL,

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Speaker 1: I'm always like a couple of weeks too early. So

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Speaker 1: I had Cornelius like week three or four, when he

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Speaker 1: was zero point two percent, I did nothing, and now

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Speaker 1: he's just going off. I think it's really easy to

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Speaker 1: keep him in a starting quarterback when they're winning. But

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Speaker 1: you know, after that that shootout loss against LA you

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Speaker 1: know they have Flowers. I was at the game and

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Speaker 1: you know, there was still chance the entire game put

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Speaker 1: in flowers and Aaron Murray's healthy, so there's that risk

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Speaker 1: that he could get pulled in game still, But yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's looked goods. It's one of those things where, especially

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Speaker 1: at XFL, when you have these volatile QB situations, we

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Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna make it through the entire game.

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Speaker 1: So I'd be a little bit cautious. I would only

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Speaker 1: play him in tournaments obviously. I think ultimately he's going

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit over owned after his output

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Speaker 1: last week. I think the time it had taken him

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Speaker 1: was a few weeks ago when he was one percent

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Speaker 1: and hope he would have a game like this, but

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Speaker 1: it just didn't work out that way.

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Speaker 2: Well, on the topic of volatile quarterback situations, let's get

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Speaker 2: to this next game. Here, we had the Dallas Renegades

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Speaker 2: at the DC Defenders. The Defenders four and a half

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Speaker 2: pointes a thirty five point over under, I mean, easily

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Speaker 2: the lowest mark on the slate, and you can kind

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Speaker 2: of see why. You know, the Dallas for Renegades without

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Speaker 2: Landry Jones, they have Philip Nelson as their backup quarterback,

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Speaker 2: who is now starting the team in two full games

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Speaker 2: with Nelson at quarterback is yet to score an offensive touchdown.

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Speaker 2: On the other side, you have the DC defenders. It

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Speaker 2: sure looks like Tyree Jackson is the guy that they're

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Speaker 2: going to go with at quarterback. Cardil Jones was benched

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Speaker 2: last week after throwing just two pass attempts, one of

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Speaker 2: which was you know ingloriously intercepted. And so the DC defenders,

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Speaker 2: it looks like they're going to go with Tyree Jackson.

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Speaker 2: They had a really run heavy approach with him at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: It seems like that is probably what they would do.

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Speaker 2: So two teams, it looks like they're probably going to

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Speaker 2: be starting, you know, backup caliber quarterbacks. The Renegades are

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Speaker 2: team that has driven totals to the under in their

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Speaker 2: five games, and the DC defenders really don't look like

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Speaker 2: a team that can score a lot of points. Right now,

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Speaker 2: where are you on this game?

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Speaker 1: The past two weeks, the only bets I've lost were

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Speaker 1: the two bets I made on Dallas, So I'm probably

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Speaker 1: gonna make that three weeks in a row. You gotta

296
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Speaker 1: stick with it. I'm showing value on him again. I

297
00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,080
Speaker 1: think this should be a field goal. DC should be

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Speaker 1: minus three here. Again, you mentioned it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a lower screen game, so any points you can get matter,

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Speaker 1: So I think taking Dallas four and a half makes

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Speaker 1: sense here. And like you mentioned, Nelson has yet to

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00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 1: lead an offensive touchdown drive. You mentioned earlier that that

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Speaker 1: game that against Houston where he led the final drive

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Speaker 1: after Landry Jones went down. It really wasn't his fault.

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Speaker 1: They didn't score. I forgot who he threw it to.

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Speaker 1: It was either a Nagel or somebody, but they really

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Speaker 1: should have scored. So I'm going to give him some

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00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,840
Speaker 1: credit on that one. But again, this game is pretty

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Speaker 1: hard to peg. DC has been so vulatable the past

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Speaker 1: few weeks. I'm just willing to take the points here.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know if it was warranted to bench

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Speaker 1: Cardell that interception. It was third and long and he's

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Speaker 1: chucked it deep. It was essentially a punt, and then

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Speaker 1: they didn't ask Terry Jackson to do much. He threw

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Speaker 1: for thirty nine yards the rest of the game. So

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Speaker 1: if Tyry Jackson is starting, it's gonna make the underlook

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Speaker 1: more enticing. But if Jones starts, I might lean towards

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Speaker 1: the over. I really don't know what they're gonna do

319
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Speaker 1: right now, and again, if you don't know who your

320
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Speaker 1: starting quarterback is, that's not a good sign. So I

321
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Speaker 1: think Dallas, hopefully they'll be a little bit more aggressive

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Speaker 1: of their play calling. I thought that had a lot

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Speaker 1: to do with Nelson's struggles last week. So I'll take

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Speaker 1: Dallas plus four and a half here and just hope

325
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Speaker 1: for the best. But when it comes to DFS, I

326
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Speaker 1: think the thing to do is target DC's running backs,

327
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Speaker 1: either Presley or Pumphrey. They are going to be extremely

328
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Speaker 1: run heavy this week. If Terry Jackson's QB, they're not

329
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Speaker 1: going to throw much. If Cardell's starting, they probably want

330
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Speaker 1: to be a run heavy team to prevent potential turnovers.

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Speaker 1: So I think just taking either one of those guys

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Speaker 1: in any of your lineup's a good sign. You know,

333
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Speaker 1: they split their work fairly evenly, but any one of

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Speaker 1: those guys can go off. They seem to trade off

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Speaker 1: being the pass catching back. So again, if I were

336
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Speaker 1: gonna make twenty lineups, I'd probably have six with Presley,

337
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 1: six with Pumphrey, and one of them with both. So

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Speaker 1: that's that's probably how Man approached this game.

339
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if I can trust trust the Renegades.

340
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 2: And you mentioned there the play calling last week, and

341
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Speaker 2: to your point, it was a situation where how Mummy,

342
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator who's usually on the sideline calling plays,

343
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 2: he was up in the booth and the team sided.

344
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 2: That is something that kind of threw them off. And

345
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Speaker 2: now he's not even calling plays anymore. They've given play

346
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:40,280
Speaker 2: calling duties to I can't remember his last name, like

347
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,640
Speaker 2: Jeff Ju Sick or something like that, but the guy

348
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 2: who used to be the head coach at Boston College

349
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 2: who now was the quarterback coach, he is now the

350
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Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. And so it's, you know, it's a system

351
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 2: that it's like, I don't know if he is the

352
00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 2: best guy to be calling how Mummy's air raid. So

353
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Speaker 2: I'm just even more pessimistic about what's happening with this offense,

354
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,199
Speaker 2: given that it's a new play caller, a new quarterback,

355
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,760
Speaker 2: and they really haven't, you know, looked all that great

356
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,120
Speaker 2: to begin with it, and now they're on the road.

357
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,359
Speaker 1: Do we know why Mummy was in the booth didn't

358
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 1: have anything to do with just getting lit up on

359
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 1: the sideline, Yes, it was.

360
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:23,240
Speaker 2: It was the lake that's because he broke his leg. Yeah,

361
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,159
Speaker 2: and in the game when there was a collision on

362
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,159
Speaker 2: the sideline, and so he was on the sideline for

363
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 2: the rest of week four, but for Week five he

364
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 2: had to move up to the prive.

365
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:38,000
Speaker 1: So interesting. Yeah. So, I mean again, I don't love

366
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: Dallas here. It's more of just taking Both teams are

367
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 1: in bad shape, so just taking the four and a

368
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 1: half is my theory. But yeah, you're right, I'm not

369
00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,680
Speaker 1: in love with Dallas this week. I just think taking

370
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,359
Speaker 1: the points to a low scoring game is usually a

371
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 1: winning play.

372
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get it. You're you're right, and I mean

373
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 2: you're you're sharper at this than I am. It's just, uh,

374
00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 2: I think I'm probably gonna stay away from from the

375
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,479
Speaker 2: side and I'll probably take the total. I'll probably go

376
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 2: under where we have it here. I mean, thirty five.

377
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: It's a low number, but I mean, let's be honest,

378
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,479
Speaker 2: not many points are scored in a lot of these games,

379
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 2: so it's not as if like it's an egregiously low

380
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 2: number anyway, So I will probably be looking there. The

381
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 2: last game we have on the slate, we have the

382
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 2: Wildcats at the Seattle Dragons, and we talked about this

383
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 2: game already a little bit with the potential home field

384
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 2: situation going on in Seattle. The Wildcats two and a

385
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 2: half point favorites a forty five point five over under Sean,

386
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:40,440
Speaker 2: where are you on this game?

387
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 1: I was at the game last week with LA, that

388
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: crazy comeback win against Tampa Bay. I say, I loved it.

389
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 1: I highly recommend going to an XFL game if you

390
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 1: live in a city that has a team. But yeah,

391
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 1: I think that shootout game is definitely impacting the total here,

392
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 1: so I don't really have an advantage on the side.

393
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 1: Like I said, We're gonna have to see if this

394
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 1: is a game that's impacted where they say, you know,

395
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 1: fans aren't allowed to go. So I'm gonna hold off

396
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 1: on the side here. But I love the under here

397
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 1: due to the market overreaction to that seventy five point

398
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 1: combined point game by LA, and Seattle is coming off

399
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 1: a game where they played Houston, and we've actually seen

400
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: the market overreact to all all teams that just face Houston. Again,

401
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,199
Speaker 1: we already know that Houston is a you know, a

402
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 1: team where the over environment is significantly boosted. So the

403
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 1: week after a team plays Houston, unders hit three out

404
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: of four times, so I think that's factoring into the

405
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,439
Speaker 1: line being a little bit too high here. I have

406
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 1: it being closer to forty three. And again, this is

407
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: a situation where I think both teams are are pretty

408
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: good when in terms of running the ball if the

409
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: game's close. So we'll see both teams kind of stick

410
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,400
Speaker 1: with the run a bit while the game is tight,

411
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: which I think it will be, so I love that

412
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: aspect of it. And again, all the underlying data from

413
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 1: last week tells me that both games were a bit

414
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 1: higher scoring than they normally would with the typical offensive output.

415
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: I think turnovers had a large part to do with

416
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 1: the LA shootout, same with Houston Seattle. So I think

417
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 1: this game, there's a lot of factors just flashing red

418
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 1: on the under here. For me, that's why this is

419
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 1: probably my best play of the week. I'm probably gonna

420
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: end up max betting it when it goes up to

421
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,360
Speaker 1: I would say it's going to go up to about

422
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. I could see the market

423
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: boosting it up that much.

424
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: Well that's good to know because maybe maybe wait on

425
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 2: it a little bit, even though yeah I don't bet it.

426
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I was gonna say I like the under

427
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 1: forty five, and then this morning it's up to forty

428
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: five and a half. I really do think the market

429
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: is going to push us up. And when you're talking

430
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 1: about key numbers for totals, anything around forty five forty

431
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: six is key. So you just wait for it to

432
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,239
Speaker 1: go up, which I think this will do. So at

433
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 1: the end of the week, hopefully get it around forty

434
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 1: six and a half or forty seven.

435
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 2: We got two quarterbacks in this game that I like

436
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,479
Speaker 2: a decent amount for XFL quarterbacks at least. Josh Johnson

437
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 2: seems to be getting, you know, a little bit better

438
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 2: each week, and you know, really lit it up last

439
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 2: week in that home game, in that shootout victory, and

440
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: then BJ Daniels coming in in the second half of

441
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: week four, you know kind of you know, lit a

442
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 2: fire under the offense a little bit. And then in

443
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: week five, you know, just kind of the lock cash game.

444
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 2: Plays the cheap, the cheap quarterback on the slate, and

445
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: he has that rushing ability and we saw it with

446
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 2: the two rushing touchdowns. I mean, I like both of

447
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 2: those guys anyway that you are leaning for DFS, Yeah, I.

448
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 1: Love BJ Daniels. I think, like I said earlier, if

449
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: you want to not take PJ. Walker in the lineup,

450
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: you can go with BJ Daniels. When it comes to

451
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 1: Josh Johnson, though, I think, yeah, we're seeing I mentioned

452
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 1: it last week, he still hasn't been one hundred percent,

453
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 1: and I think once he gets that rushing ability we

454
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 1: know he has, he's only going to get better in

455
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: real life and in DFS, and we saw that last week.

456
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: He did look a lot more nimble last week, so

457
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 1: I think he's only going to get better. Nelson Sprush

458
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: is likely out again, is that right?

459
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 2: That's my understanding. It seems like he's gonna be out

460
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 2: for a while.

461
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean that's unfortunate because, like I said, if

462
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: he and McBride are in the lineup at the same time,

463
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: that's huge for a guy like Johnson. So well, I

464
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 1: don't like Josh Johnson by himself this week. In terms

465
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 1: of dollar value, I do think it does make sense

466
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 1: to make some LA stacks of Johnson with like McBride,

467
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 1: Smallwood and Blackmail, you know, rotating in and out two

468
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: of those wide receivers. All three of those wide receivers

469
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: are worth their price right now. You know, Smallwood had

470
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: a big play and black Nell had a big play,

471
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 1: and they they're on the field. Let me see if

472
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: I could find the snaps. But they're on the field roughly,

473
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 1: you know, eighty percent of the dropbacks, so they're the

474
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 1: main three receivers right now. So yeah, if Josh Johnson

475
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 1: is getting better, those guys will benefit. So that's why

476
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: I think I probably won't take teams where I just

477
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: have Josh Johnson. It's going to be part of a

478
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: three man stack for LA's passing game this week.

479
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 2: Last week, I thought cam Phillips was a priority in

480
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 2: cash games, in the same with Trey McBride. Do you

481
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: think McBride is a priority this week. You know, he

482
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: didn't have quite the game last week, but you know

483
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 2: he was injured for part of it, came back, got

484
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: the touchdown. What are your thoughts on McBride in particular

485
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 2: in cash?

486
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 1: He's always a good playing cash, but his price is

487
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,239
Speaker 1: up there now. I think a guy like Holly is

488
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: you know, I have Holly projected for just like one

489
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 1: point less and he's almost five k cheaper, So I

490
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: think it makes sense to probably take a guy like

491
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: cam Phillips. I think cam Phillips is the guy that

492
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: you spend up on in cash, and then these seven

493
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: K guys are actually more valuable per dollar than McBride.

494
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't say McBride's must plan cash this week,

495
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: especially off the shootout. I think people will probably, you know,

496
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 1: a little bit too high on McBride, But yeah, I

497
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: think for cash, I wouldn't say he's a free square

498
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: like he has been in the past few weeks. I

499
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: know I keep saying he's a free square, but this week,

500
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: given the fact that I do like the under a

501
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 1: bit and he's a bit pricey, I don't think he's

502
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: a free square.

503
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: All right, Let's look at the futures market. The futures

504
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: that we like the most right now. I want to

505
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: get your thoughts on it. Houston Roughnecks plus one seventy,

506
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: battle Hawks plus three eighty, the DC Defenders plus four seventy,

507
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: the Dallas Renegades seven and a half to one, Guardians

508
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 2: seven and a half to one, the Wildcats nine to one,

509
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: and the Dragons and Vipers both twenty six to one.

510
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: Do you see anything on the market right now that

511
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 2: you like?

512
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 1: Not really? Again that that week we took Saint Louis

513
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: at ten to one is probably the best play of

514
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: the year, and right now it's you really have to

515
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 1: make a case for a team other than Houston, and

516
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if I could do that right now.

517
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: There's a lot of teams that are that are going

518
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 1: to be viable for, you know, making the playoffs. Again,

519
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: I think a team like LA right now at nine

520
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: to one could offer some value. That's one of those

521
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: things where Nelson Spruce it depends when he's going to return.

522
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: But like I said, Josh Johnson looks like he's just

523
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: now one hundred percent, so that's gonna be good for

524
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: them down the road. But again, at nine to one,

525
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: it's hard to bite because I do think it's it's

526
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: likely Houston Saint Louis for the you know, the top

527
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: two spots, and the market has the price up pretty well,

528
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: so I'm just not seeing the value that we saw

529
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 1: in say week three or four.

530
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. If I had to take one,

531
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 2: it would be the Wildcats because I do think that

532
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 2: they have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs

533
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: out of the West. And then at that point you

534
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: just have to win two games, and you know they

535
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: they would have a chance of doing it, but uh yeah,

536
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 2: I think it's it's wildcats or stay away from me,

537
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 2: all right? Favorite bet of the week out of the

538
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 2: week six lines, the one that you like the most.

539
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: What is it? So? I mentioned it earlier, but the

540
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 1: La Seattle under right Now, it's forty five and a half,

541
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: but I guarantee it's gonna end up being, you know,

542
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 1: closer to forty six forty seven. It's just one of

543
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: those things where my model I look at what the

544
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: expected score should have been for each game, just based

545
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: on the offensive output and trying to factor ount things

546
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: like turnovers, you know, lucky explosive plays, and just both

547
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: the LA and Seattle Houston game, we're just flashing red

548
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: lights for me that the market will probably overreact to

549
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: the over here. So and my model itself have this

550
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: game closer to forty three. So again, I think this

551
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: is a game where we're going to see both teams

552
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: leaning towards the run, and it should be a closer game,

553
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: and both teams will want to play, you know, a

554
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: lower scoring style football game here. So I just love

555
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: the under here, all right.

556
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: So I'm looking in the Action Network app, where of

557
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: course you can track your XFL bets. The under for

558
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 2: Dallas DC, the total. They are opened at thirty six.

559
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: It's been bet down to thirty five at most books.

560
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: It is available at thirty five and a half at FanDuel.

561
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 2: And that's where I'm gonna grab it. Taking taking the

562
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: under there two you know, lower scoring teams, and we've

563
00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 2: got a backup quarterback situation and backup off offensive coordinator situation.

564
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 2: Just I'm with you there on the under that you've

565
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: called for La Seattle, All right, that's gonna do it.

566
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 2: For this episode of the Action Network podcast. You can

567
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 2: follow Seawan and me in the Action Network app at

568
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 2: the Underscore Odds Maker and Matt f the Oracle use

569
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: the app to get real time odds and track your

570
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: bets for free. Check out the rest of our episodes

571
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 2: this week. Please subscribe to and rate and review the

572
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: show on Apple podcast radio dot com or wherever you

573
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: get your podcasts and don't forget. You can listen and

574
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

575
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: We're finished talking