Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined on this Thursday morning by Andrew Erickson
Speaker 1: and Chris welsch Els It's our predictions show. We're changing
Speaker 1: up the schedule a bit because of the new year,
Speaker 1: also because it's Week eighteen, so kind of takes a
Speaker 1: different shape here when we get to this time of
Speaker 1: the year because most fantasy leagues are done, the vast
Speaker 1: majority of leagues have their championship, as they should in
Speaker 1: Week seventeen. There are a few stragglers, you know, random
Speaker 1: leagues here and there. I know of a couple of
Speaker 1: people who the commissioner just like accidentally said a Week
Speaker 1: eighteen or something. Those are few and far between, though.
Speaker 1: We are still bringing you predictions though for a bunch
Speaker 1: of reasons. Maybe you're playing DFS, maybe you want to
Speaker 1: bet on some of these players, maybe you do have
Speaker 1: one of those Week eighteen championships. For whatever the reason
Speaker 1: is that you're interested in kind of previewing and predicting
Speaker 1: the week ahead. That is why we are here doing
Speaker 1: our usual predictions. Each guy is gonna bring five of
Speaker 1: them and we're gonna see how we did last week. Ericson,
Speaker 1: you were wrong about everything again.
Speaker 2: No, no, hey, is that real?
Speaker 1: Technically yes, though I will give you two caveats. One
Speaker 1: is that Anthony Richardson didn't play, so you really only
Speaker 1: had four predictions that could have panned out. And you were,
Speaker 1: as we discussed, spiritually correct about JK. Dobbins, if not
Speaker 1: technically correct about JK Dobbins. But yes, you have another
Speaker 1: O for back to back weeks. Erickson, I thought.
Speaker 2: You were being just mean by the way. I thought,
Speaker 2: like like in our little private chat we have, I
Speaker 2: thought worm was just being like a jerk, like just
Speaker 2: trying to poke the bear. It's tough to do, Ericson.
Speaker 1: It's a fair assumption most of the time. But no,
Speaker 1: he is wrong again. But like I said, you were
Speaker 1: spiritually correct at least about Dobbins. Ericson, Yeah, so.
Speaker 3: I mean the point of it was Jaco Dobbins is
Speaker 3: gonna have a goo game against Patriots. He did, he scored,
Speaker 3: didn't hit the massive rushing yards amount, but he didn't
Speaker 3: play in the fourth quarter because Patriot sucks. So yeah,
Speaker 3: that's not my fault. And I thought my fault Richardon
Speaker 3: didn't play. So again, we only get me four bets.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's gonna be tough for me to hit
Speaker 3: any predictions. And I only get four chances.
Speaker 2: So everyone knows you need five. It's like it's like
Speaker 2: well known by everybody.
Speaker 1: You had five chances is you picked a player who
Speaker 1: didn't end up playing welch, You didn't have a great week.
Speaker 1: You had a couple of misses Addrick Estime, Jordan Love
Speaker 1: and Jade and Reed. Obviously you were technically wrong about
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams the artist, but again very spiritually correct about
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams having a big game, and he had the
Speaker 1: forty yard play really like the definition of spiritually correct
Speaker 1: on him, and then of course like technically correct, spiritually
Speaker 1: correct everything correct on Mike Evans two touchdown incentive game
Speaker 1: just absolutely hit that nail on the head.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got that.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And I had said with the Oddrick estimate one too,
Speaker 2: like it could be Julia McLoughlin. So I think I'm
Speaker 2: like in the spiritual category because I said, if McLoughlin plays,
Speaker 2: it's going to be him instead of estimated, So there's
Speaker 2: like a spiritual side to it. But yeah, it was okay,
Speaker 2: I mean, did nail the Evans one I'm going to
Speaker 2: take a win on Jamison Williams. Whatever the other ones
Speaker 2: were weren't great, but hey, like Eric's has said, you
Speaker 2: get five stabs at it. You gotta get one, but
Speaker 2: you gotta get five stabs tick.
Speaker 3: Players that are playing number one, give me your.
Speaker 2: Best as it's a good it's well, guess what, it's
Speaker 2: week eighteen. Who the hell knows.
Speaker 1: It's never harder to know who's playing this week. By
Speaker 1: the way, just housekeeping for everyone, we are going to
Speaker 1: continue this show into the playoffs, so you can kind
Speaker 1: of view it as more just a general, you know,
Speaker 1: weekly preview of the playoff rounds. Again, if you want to,
Speaker 1: you know, use this for placing bets, or if you're
Speaker 1: playing some kind of playoff fantasy, whatever the reason might
Speaker 1: be that you would be interested. We are going to
Speaker 1: continue this show throughout the NFL playoffs, even once the
Speaker 1: regular season is done. This week, guys, that's hump in
Speaker 1: two our Week eighteen predictions ericson Start us.
Speaker 3: Off Steelers are going to beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday,
Speaker 3: and it's going to because of a Jalen Warren RB
Speaker 3: one season. Jalen Warren's kind of taken over this backfield. Basically,
Speaker 3: since he's gotten healthy, he's out snapped Naji Harris four
Speaker 3: straight games. He's also had more red zone work than
Speaker 3: Naji Harris over the last two weeks. So when it
Speaker 3: comes to a prop, I like the over on his
Speaker 3: receiving yards. Twenty one and a half is the line
Speaker 3: that I've seen. He has at least twenty five receiving
Speaker 3: yards and six of his last eight games. Last time
Speaker 3: he faced the Bengals four targets, caught all of them
Speaker 3: for fifty five yards, including a twenty nine yard game.
Speaker 3: The Bengals can't tackle on defense. If you remember how
Speaker 3: this matchup worked out the first time, it was Najie
Speaker 3: Harris and Jalen Warren just running free, breaking tackles left
Speaker 3: and right against the Bengals defense. The head did a
Speaker 3: lot of damage in the passing game, both of the
Speaker 3: running backs did, so I'm expecting more of the same.
Speaker 3: I think that these Steelers can win this game. I
Speaker 3: don't think they're getting enough credit for their season so far.
Speaker 3: And oh, they don't have a lot to play for. Uh,
Speaker 3: it's Mike Common at home as an underdog, Like, give
Speaker 3: me that all daygainst the Cincinnati Bengals. Look, this is
Speaker 3: the perfect way to end the bengals terrible season that
Speaker 3: has been a waste of Joe Burrow. A loss to
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers to knock them out of the playoffs entirely.
Speaker 3: So they're gonna get to play out and see what
Speaker 3: Denver or Miami does on Sunday. So that's my prediction.
Speaker 3: I think Jalen Warren is going to be someone that
Speaker 3: is gonna have a really big game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm somewhat confused. What is the line current on
Speaker 1: this game?
Speaker 3: Bengals are favored by like a point and a half.
Speaker 1: I see two here on Drafting Sports two. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't totally understand why the Steelers are underdogs.
Speaker 2: Well, I think part of it is because I think
Speaker 2: Justin Fields was taking like first team reps if I
Speaker 2: saw that correctly earlier in the week. So again, with
Speaker 2: what they're playing for, you might see Fields in this game.
Speaker 2: That's probably some because they're not what are they playing for?
Speaker 1: Can't they get the five seed?
Speaker 3: They get to play at Houston versus if they lose,
Speaker 3: they have to play at Baltimore, Which is a good point.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's I mean doesn't take a gen us
Speaker 3: to figure out who if they'd like to win this
Speaker 3: game or not. And they also get to knock out Steels.
Speaker 3: They've also played terrible, Like they're a three game losing street.
Speaker 3: Do they want to go into the playoffs facing Baltimore
Speaker 3: again on the road losing four games in a row, like,
Speaker 3: probably not.
Speaker 2: It's the only thing that makes sense for a Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: team that's at home for them to not be favorites
Speaker 2: would be that they're not going to play it out.
Speaker 2: That would be what the line must be telling us.
Speaker 1: And I think people are just like very like there's
Speaker 1: been this kind of swell of well, maybe Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: should actually get MVP consideration, and he's been amazing and
Speaker 1: he really has been incredible this year, and obviously we
Speaker 1: know Jamar Chason t Higgins are awesome, but the rest
Speaker 1: of this team stinks. Like I think people are just
Speaker 1: looking at like, oh, Joe Burrow amazing, and they they
Speaker 1: are more desperate to get in the playoffs than the
Speaker 1: Steelers are going to be to just like go up
Speaker 1: a seed line. But I think the Steelers have have
Speaker 1: incentive to win this game, even if the Ravens win
Speaker 1: the earlier game on Saturday. I think the Steelers will
Speaker 1: want to win this to try and get that Texans matchup.
Speaker 1: And I just think Cynthia is really really bad outside
Speaker 1: of those megastars, and they are legitimately playing like some
Speaker 1: of the best players in football, but there's like three
Speaker 1: or four guys on that team. The rest of them
Speaker 1: are not good. So I don't I don't understand that
Speaker 1: line at all. Honestly, what do you think about wells
Speaker 1: Jalen Warren as an RB one, Like Erickson's predicting.
Speaker 2: Always, it's always, It's always Jalen Warren. It's always been
Speaker 2: Jalen Warren. It's got to continue to be Jalen Warren.
Speaker 2: You know. Coming into a couple of weeks ago, I
Speaker 2: was talking about how the Bengals were giving up receiving yards.
Speaker 2: They've moved off of being like the number one team
Speaker 2: because they got blasted one game, but they're still like
Speaker 2: right around the top ten and receiving yards given up
Speaker 2: two running backs, and that is where Jalen war I mean,
Speaker 2: Jalen Warren's thriving on the ground as well. I'd be
Speaker 2: one hundred percent interested in the receiving yard prop I'd
Speaker 2: be looking at what his rushing and receiving combo yards
Speaker 2: look like as well, because they love to give him
Speaker 2: the ball instead of you know, just not just like
Speaker 2: you know, six or seven carries. It's like, no, give
Speaker 2: it more primary over nausey. I think he's going to
Speaker 2: eat up this team again. The only concerner question would
Speaker 2: be is if this line is telling us that they're
Speaker 2: not going to be playing out the whole game, do
Speaker 2: they want to make sure that Jalen Warren is the
Speaker 2: guy that's playing out the whole game. Would that be
Speaker 2: something maybe you get a little bit more nausey because
Speaker 2: he's had less work, get third string in. I don't know,
Speaker 2: but I do like the receiving yards of Jalen Warren.
Speaker 1: Well, so let's stick with you for your number five prediction.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So mine is going to ruin and break a
Speaker 2: lot of people's brains for next season, especially when they're
Speaker 2: getting in the tight end market, because Pennix is going
Speaker 2: to get the ball to Kyle Pitts this week. So first,
Speaker 2: it's kind of a there's a pseudo Penix is going
Speaker 2: to have two passing touchdowns this week, But the main
Speaker 2: thing is about Kyle Pitts going sixty plus and another touchdown.
Speaker 2: Everybody also was already like, oh, like, oh, look, Carl
Speaker 2: Pitt's doing a few things. He's going to do some
Speaker 2: more things and it's going to hurt people. Caroline has
Speaker 2: given up the eleventh most receiving yards two tight ends
Speaker 2: so far in the year, and the most touchdowns overall.
Speaker 2: We saw him catch four or five passes this past week,
Speaker 2: and he's becoming a target.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Pennix is kind of doing that checkdown thing. He's getting
Speaker 2: the ball around, He's starting to do some of those
Speaker 2: athletic plays. His biggest problem is catching the ball. That
Speaker 2: was why that interception happened two weeks ago, where it
Speaker 2: was like whoop, like old school Vernon Davis with those
Speaker 2: stonehands and really great athleticism. Though, but I think we
Speaker 2: are going to get a bigger Kyle Pitts game, going
Speaker 2: to be the biggest game of his season. It'll be
Speaker 2: just ripe to end the season. So next year when
Speaker 2: we're breaking down tight ends, everyone's going to be like
Speaker 2: Carl Putts, Remember Carl Puts, and we shouldn't we shouldn't
Speaker 2: do that. But he's going to break people's brains this week.
Speaker 1: Man like sitting in August talking about Kyle, like, we
Speaker 1: just can't like they're going to I know you're probably right,
Speaker 1: but we can't. I like, this was the year, this
Speaker 1: was the okay, one last ride. I will give him
Speaker 1: a final chance to you know, become the guy we
Speaker 1: thought he could be. It obviously didn't happen. I can't
Speaker 1: do another offseason.
Speaker 2: I was like, finom the last dance.
Speaker 1: We are competence. Yes, it's pretty good impression. Where do
Speaker 1: you think he will be ranked? Not by you but
Speaker 1: in ECR in twenty twenty five drafts? Welsh?
Speaker 2: Oh god, I think I think he'll be around like fourteen,
Speaker 2: and that's already gonna probably be six spots too high.
Speaker 2: But I think it'll be right around that fourteen to
Speaker 2: fifteen area because of those last two games. But this
Speaker 2: is what I want to say, Ericson, don't bad put
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts down. Don't do it? Are you gonna do it?
Speaker 3: I mean, if he's a late round tight end, he's
Speaker 3: an option, like again, like he's gonna be guy. You
Speaker 3: can take the last pick. You don't have to draft
Speaker 3: him in most leagues anyway, So I think you can
Speaker 3: see it play out, like you're gonna say you don't
Speaker 3: want pieces of Michael Pennix year two Falcons offense, like,
Speaker 3: and he's gonna be the cheapest guy.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I actually think I actually don't think
Speaker 1: he's gonna be a late round option. If if Welsh's
Speaker 1: right and we see like a big finish from Pitts
Speaker 1: when specifically paired with Michael Pennix, I think people will
Speaker 1: talk themselves into it, Like, once again, how old is
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts? What is he twenty four?
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if he just turned twenty four
Speaker 3: or if he's turning twenty five. I just know he's
Speaker 3: twenty four right now as we're talking on January second.
Speaker 1: So he turned twenty four in October. He will start
Speaker 1: next season at twenty four years old, Like you're telling me, yes,
Speaker 1: I think he's younger than Michael Pennix. Actually, I'm not
Speaker 1: saying I will be in on him. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: he's gonna be right to the top five. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna be not a late round guy. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna be like a mid round tight end.
Speaker 2: A better prediction would be top twelve tight end, like
Speaker 2: he will probably be when people get to like ten
Speaker 2: and twelve, they'll be like, yeah, you know what, I
Speaker 2: think we could do Kyle Pits over you know, Friar Mooth.
Speaker 1: Or Yeah, that's the thing. Like what name are you
Speaker 1: gonna put ahead? Like are you gonna picks like zach
Speaker 1: Ertz another you're older, like like Chaga Conkuo, like Jake Fergus.
Speaker 3: That's what I mean, Like when you do when you're
Speaker 3: the ranking, I mean, you're gonna take Jaga Conkuo who
Speaker 3: is like you should? Why Pitts has little been in
Speaker 3: New Year two? It's the same thing.
Speaker 2: Pitts has been one of the worst picks of all
Speaker 2: time this year that we did again.
Speaker 3: I think he was worse last year, except.
Speaker 2: Penix is making again Penix and then maybe.
Speaker 1: It will be fixed.
Speaker 2: But this, this is what I'm talking about. Your brain
Speaker 2: is already broken. Oh my god, people, brains are going
Speaker 2: to be broken. Brains are already broken.
Speaker 3: With cow Pits in the fourteenth round. My team is dead. No,
Speaker 3: he is not dead.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can be able to wait till
Speaker 1: the fourteenth round if you want to.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I don't know what I mean.
Speaker 3: The hate for Coyle. Pits is pretty strong. I don't
Speaker 3: think people are going to be swayed if he catches
Speaker 3: a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: It's still just such a weak position. Like like I'm
Speaker 1: looking like right now, this is a week eighteen rankings,
Speaker 1: but just looking at the names, like there's not that
Speaker 1: many that I'm one hundred percent certain will be ranked
Speaker 1: ahead of Kyle Pitts and ECR. It's like like Bowers McBride, Laporta,
Speaker 1: John new Hockinson, Andrews Kittle. That's seven, Tucker Craft that's
Speaker 1: eight names like after that, Like, I think there are
Speaker 1: other names that will probably be ranked ahead of him,
Speaker 1: but I'm not one hundred percent certain we'll be ranked
Speaker 1: ahead of Kyle Pitts and ECR. Come august Is. I
Speaker 1: guess that's my point.
Speaker 2: I think I think you're probably right. By the way,
Speaker 2: best stat is that he's younger than Michael Pennix. That's
Speaker 2: actually the best stat of all.
Speaker 3: Think it's more about it just Penis being old as
Speaker 3: a rookie than Pitts.
Speaker 1: Well, Pitts also was very young and is enter me.
Speaker 3: I mean, like, let's be honest, though, wuld it surprise
Speaker 3: anybody if a tight end that was really young took
Speaker 3: four years to this happens all the time. But that's
Speaker 3: the thing that he's a tight end like, and tight
Speaker 3: ends tend to be slow starters like not everyone's Rock Bowers.
Speaker 1: So I can't believe we're making this case.
Speaker 2: But way I told the.
Speaker 3: Point of this week though, I think it's a good
Speaker 3: call by Welsh because Panthers suck against tight ends, and
Speaker 3: he already went over seventy yards against them earlier this year.
Speaker 3: He didn't score, so if you can get the rs,
Speaker 3: you can probably find the end zone two and he's
Speaker 3: got Penix, so yeah, I mean obviously in Penis's targeted
Speaker 3: back to back weeks in the red zone right. The
Speaker 3: first time it was an interception. This time it was
Speaker 3: a touchdown, So I like the odds.
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Speaker 1: Ericson what's your next prediction?
Speaker 3: The Seahawks are going to beat the Rams B team
Speaker 3: led by Gim mcgoppolo and Gino Smith is going to
Speaker 3: get himself a fat payday in the making. So Gino
Speaker 3: Smith has a bunch of contract incentives that are related
Speaker 3: to the team winning double EDGIT games, which they can
Speaker 3: do if they beat the Rams that'll get them ten
Speaker 3: wins for the year. He gets another two million dollars
Speaker 3: if he passes for at least one hundred and eighty
Speaker 3: six yards and he achieves a sixty nine point five
Speaker 3: percent completion rate this season.
Speaker 2: So nice.
Speaker 3: The Seahawks are out of the playoff contention after the
Speaker 3: Rams clinched the NFC Weeks NFC Weast NFC West last week,
Speaker 3: and so that's the only incentive Gino has to play
Speaker 3: really is, Hey, I can make a lot of money
Speaker 3: in this game. If I just throw for two hundred yards,
Speaker 3: we win the game against the backups. So let's ride.
Speaker 3: So I like Geno Smith a lot in this week
Speaker 3: to be out there throwing the ball. It's funny. Something
Speaker 3: that I've been betting a lot this year is the
Speaker 3: Geno Smith under on his passing attempts. It's like every
Speaker 3: week it's thirty four and a half and he comes
Speaker 3: nowhere near the passing attempted under that number. And I
Speaker 3: think like eight of his last ten games. But this
Speaker 3: is the one we where you might seem to throw
Speaker 3: forty times so that he can get these high completions,
Speaker 3: short underneath targets to Jackson Smith and Jigba and hit
Speaker 3: at least two hundred passing yards and get the Seahawks
Speaker 3: to win against the Rams. As we know, look the
Speaker 3: Rams again, a lot of stuff in Week eighteen is
Speaker 3: like preseason. Like That's essentially what it is to me,
Speaker 3: Tom viewing this game is Rams do not care. We
Speaker 3: see Sean mcvaye preseason games, they get destroyed because he
Speaker 3: just doesn't care or try to win these games and
Speaker 3: any capacity. So I think that Gino has a day.
Speaker 3: If you again, if you're playing fantasy this week, I
Speaker 3: think that the Seahawks are a good bet to make
Speaker 3: on an offense. It's going to play their starters a
Speaker 3: decent amount just because they're going to finish the season strong,
Speaker 3: new head coach, and Gino has every incentive to be
Speaker 3: out there. So once he gets his incentives, gets the yards,
Speaker 3: maybe we see him come out, but before I think
Speaker 3: he's gonna do some damage. Before then, I think the
Speaker 3: Seahawks are gonna win.
Speaker 1: Were you saying NFC weast like SpongeBob? I thought he
Speaker 1: said weast, Yes, yes, exactly that classic. Well should you
Speaker 1: SpongeBob guy?
Speaker 2: I love SpongeBob. Did I hear it? SpongeBob is coming
Speaker 2: to an end this year too? My kids said that,
Speaker 2: Oh for really, I think the guy did the voice
Speaker 2: the creator. I think he passed away, and there's something
Speaker 2: about SpongeBob ending this year we can't do.
Speaker 1: I think sponge I once saw a stat I can't
Speaker 1: remember where I heard it, but I think SpongeBob alone
Speaker 1: has accounted for something like five percent of the lifetime
Speaker 1: revenue for Paramount, which is like an obscene number to
Speaker 1: think about how big that company is, how long it's
Speaker 1: been around. It might have even been a higher percentage
Speaker 1: than that. It's just such a behemoth. I can't imagine
Speaker 1: they would they would let it end. That's so that's
Speaker 1: really surprising to me.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's true.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe it's not. Maybe it's maybe you're you know,
Speaker 1: maybe this is another prediction we're going to miss on
Speaker 1: this show.
Speaker 3: I hope we miss it, though, I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: What do you think Welch about the Seahawks Rams game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm just like all in on the incentive
Speaker 2: incentive gate across the board, like especially when it's like obtainable.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm still pissed about one that we can't
Speaker 2: put on here because the team is sitting a certain player,
Speaker 2: but like this is a massively obtainable one, like two
Speaker 2: hundred yards passing for Gino on the financial incentive side
Speaker 2: them to be slanging the ball against a backup Rams
Speaker 2: team to smash of the century one hundred percent. But
Speaker 2: also just to point out, can you imagine that you
Speaker 2: are playing your Fantasy Championship in and you have to
Speaker 2: decide between the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo or Joshua Dobbs,
Speaker 2: Like these are the guys that are going in at
Speaker 2: quarterback and you're going to backup running backs. I think
Speaker 2: mcveigh's like, we're excited to see what Blake Korham does,
Speaker 2: you know, Like it's just you can't do week eighteen,
Speaker 2: Like Week eighteen is chaos, and anybody that does, I mean,
Speaker 2: God bless you. I guess if you do do it
Speaker 2: in Fantasy and you're cutting your star players for Blake
Speaker 2: Korum and Jimmy Garoppolo. But it's rough, it's rough in
Speaker 2: the streets.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that. Sometimes commissioners like make mistakes. It's
Speaker 1: like you know that you have a lot, like oh,
Speaker 1: and you're setting up multiple leagues, Like mistakes happen if
Speaker 1: you intentionally put your championship in week eighteen, like you're
Speaker 1: just not fit to be a fan.
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of people that intentionally go
Speaker 2: to week eighteen. I think you surprised, and.
Speaker 3: Why not just play start in the preseason then, I
Speaker 3: mean that's where they agree. I mean like people will
Speaker 3: argue like, oh, I want more games plays like, so
Speaker 3: then start preseason week one, like let's go, like, let's
Speaker 3: get as many weeks as we can roll all the
Speaker 3: way to the super Bowl.
Speaker 2: People are petitioning NFL to in the bye weeks at
Speaker 2: week thirteen so they can now start their playoffs fourteen
Speaker 2: through sixteen because of the chaos it just happened in
Speaker 2: week seventeen, Like going to eighteen is crazy.
Speaker 1: I would like them to end their buys in week thirteen,
Speaker 1: so you could do in a sixteen playoff one week,
Speaker 1: one week, two weeks, and then you still don't go
Speaker 1: to week eighteen because I do like the two week
Speaker 1: championship and that somewhat mitigates some of that. And so
Speaker 1: if you start a week fourteen, you could do that.
Speaker 1: But I don't know that we're going to see them
Speaker 1: like change the bye weeks, which you know is a
Speaker 1: bummer Welsh, what's your next prediction?
Speaker 2: All right, Oh yeah, we're going to me. We're talking
Speaker 2: about SpongeBob and Bye Weeks and stuff like that, and
Speaker 2: I got distracted. I'm going to go back to the JK.
Speaker 2: Dobbins well, and I'm gonna have a victory lap. Even
Speaker 2: though there was a spiritual win for mister Andrew Erickson,
Speaker 2: I will get a full on win and Dobbins is
Speaker 2: going to go for over one hundred yards against the
Speaker 2: Raiders and we are going to lock in incentives. Raiders
Speaker 2: are giving up the tenth most rushing yards over the
Speaker 2: last month, even though they had been pretty stingy on
Speaker 2: the year, al so you can pass against them. Dobbins
Speaker 2: had nineteen carries last game. He's averaging over four yards
Speaker 2: per carryover his last three games, and he needs just
Speaker 2: around sixty yards to hit that one hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: five thousand dollars incentive that he's at because I think
Speaker 2: he needed like one hundred and thirty four going into
Speaker 2: last game. Was able to lock some in. We'll have
Speaker 2: a bigger game, much bigger game. He's going to go
Speaker 2: over one hundred. You can throw a touchdown in there
Speaker 2: if you want, but you know, spiritual to actual wins,
Speaker 2: I'm going to just go with one hundred plus here
Speaker 2: also might even mess around, like you think about some
Speaker 2: of these and you go like two hundred yards, gino,
Speaker 2: and then maybe you can alt. I don't know what.
Speaker 2: Dobbin's probably going to open up around one hundred. The books,
Speaker 2: by the way, are pretty keen to incentives. We'll talk
Speaker 2: about one that I have that they went hard. It's
Speaker 2: the most of this guy's receiving yards have been the
Speaker 2: entire year, and it's because of what he needs that
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if Dobbins opens up at like
Speaker 2: sixty five sixty six, which would be a little bit
Speaker 2: more than you would usually probably see, but I would
Speaker 2: be playing overs on him. Genos Smith and there's a
Speaker 2: couple others if you want to mess around in week
Speaker 2: eighteen to have some actual fun that you're not, you know,
Speaker 2: playing your championship into. So Dobbin's over one hundred.
Speaker 1: Eric Sinan on Dobbins again.
Speaker 3: I like him, but maybe not to the hundred mark
Speaker 3: because he needs fifty eight to get nine hundred on
Speaker 3: the season, and that gets him his first bonus, and
Speaker 3: then he would need another one hundred and fifty after that.
Speaker 3: So I kind of just like it. Hey, he'll get
Speaker 3: sixty rushingyrons and then that'll get him his his bonus
Speaker 3: and then they can probably sit him. Because the thing
Speaker 3: with the Chargers is if the Steelers win, which is
Speaker 3: my prediction, so we're going we're kind of anti correlated here, Welsh,
Speaker 3: the Chargers can't do anything playoff wise, like they are
Speaker 3: stuck where they are if the Pittsburgh Steelers win, so
Speaker 3: that gives them less incentive and Hardla's kind of a
Speaker 3: non committal about like playing his guys especial if they
Speaker 3: have nothing to play for. I mean, we know that
Speaker 3: this Chargers team is based on the health of Justin Herbert.
Speaker 3: It's basically been that like all season. If there's an
Speaker 3: opportunity for him not to play, that guy not play. JK. Dobbins,
Speaker 3: who obviously was banged up during the offseason, got hurt
Speaker 3: during the season. With healthy last week, that would mean
Speaker 3: my only shy away. But at least you get to
Speaker 3: know Sunday morning, Hey, what did the Steelers do if
Speaker 3: they lost? Okay, let's wrap up JK. Dobbins. But if not,
Speaker 3: maybe you will pull back a little bit.
Speaker 1: I didn't think to look this up before this show,
Speaker 1: but I'm curious what Harbad did when he was with
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers in terms of choosing to rest
Speaker 1: guys or not when they had nothing to play for,
Speaker 1: because the way he is wired, it would seem to
Speaker 1: me like that's not something they're going to do. But
Speaker 1: I'm curious what kind of the past has shown us
Speaker 1: that he's decided in the scenarios.
Speaker 2: Dobbins is also in an interesting situation just because he
Speaker 2: missed so much time. And it's not like you know,
Speaker 2: you were out for the season, you got to get
Speaker 2: your reps in in like you know, exhibition games and
Speaker 2: stuff like that, but like he missed a significant amount
Speaker 2: of time that you may want to, like get that
Speaker 2: rhythm back, may want him to be out there a
Speaker 2: little bit more, but to the point, hit the incentive
Speaker 2: get off the field. My interpretation of a lot of
Speaker 2: teams that are and this is actually what I thought.
Speaker 2: I mean, Frank, we just say it. Like with the Eagles,
Speaker 2: I was one hundred percent going to go with Saquon
Speaker 2: Barkley breaking the record, but then they announced that he's
Speaker 2: not going to was that they're going to give you
Speaker 2: a half, And I think any of these guys for
Speaker 2: teams that don't have a lot to play for that
Speaker 2: still want to maybe put some starters out there. You
Speaker 2: get a half to figure thing out that would have
Speaker 2: been I thought with Saquon That's what I think it'll
Speaker 2: be with Dobbins, and they'll see within you know, what
Speaker 2: striking distance are you of, you know, him specifically needing
Speaker 2: to get to it, So it'll be a strong half
Speaker 2: of where you'll get the guy. And if they are
Speaker 2: going to pull back, it would probably be in the
Speaker 2: third quarter. And if they have absolutely nothing to play for,
Speaker 2: I would actually say that's probably likely by Harbaugh.
Speaker 1: The other thing I would just say on Dobbins is
Speaker 1: remember the first of you know, really like life changing,
Speaker 1: like career altering injury that he suffered was in a
Speaker 1: preseason game. Like I think he is somebody who is
Speaker 1: going to say, like getting the incentive. I do think
Speaker 1: he is going to want to do that. I think
Speaker 1: once he hits whatever that first milestone is, I think
Speaker 1: he personally will be like, I've had a like injury
Speaker 1: that really ruined my career once before in a game
Speaker 1: that didn't matter. I do not want to risk doing
Speaker 1: that again, So I wouldn't be surprised if that's in
Speaker 1: the back of his mind. I want to let everybody
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Speaker 1: what's your ext prediction?
Speaker 3: The Jaguars are gonna score thirty points against Indianapolis Colts
Speaker 3: this week. Mac Jones is going to go over his
Speaker 3: passing yards prop which is egregiously low at two hundred
Speaker 3: and seven and a half yards, and Brian Thomas Junior
Speaker 3: is going to finish the year leading all rookies in
Speaker 3: receiving yards and.
Speaker 2: What also is going to happen real quick and then
Speaker 2: someone I know is going to cash a fourteen.
Speaker 3: To fourteen to one on Brian Tommas to lead all
Speaker 3: rookies and receiving yards. But this is I mean, it's
Speaker 3: gonna be sweat because right now, currently in the standings,
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas Junior leads with one one hundred and seventy
Speaker 3: nine yards. He is thirty five yards ahead of Rock Bowers,
Speaker 3: who all we're going to also talk about in the
Speaker 3: show at one one hundred and forty four, who is
Speaker 3: four yards ahead of mylik Neighbors, who's sitting at one thousand,
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty. So all these guys are like
Speaker 3: fighting for records. But it's interesting because Neighbors and Bowers
Speaker 3: are kind of fighting for like receptions, where Thomas has
Speaker 3: the lead on the yards, but it's not alter like
Speaker 3: he's not going to break any receiving yards records, but
Speaker 3: he would just be the receiving yards leader this particular season,
Speaker 3: which I'm not sure if the Jaguars are paying I
Speaker 3: know I'm paying attention to this of course, because this
Speaker 3: is something that I've been highly invested in all season long,
Speaker 3: so but I just love the matchup here when you
Speaker 3: look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and their offense. Again, I
Speaker 3: don't need to go too deeply into how bad. I mean,
Speaker 3: the Colts just got lit up by a stoic dame
Speaker 3: by Drew Locke, Like we literally just saw this happen.
Speaker 3: About how bad this Colts defense is. The Jaguars the
Speaker 3: last three times that they faced the Colts over the
Speaker 3: past two seasons thirty points in every single game. So
Speaker 3: Doug Peterson owns this defense. I mean, most offenses own
Speaker 3: this defense for Indianapolis. So I think once again, they're
Speaker 3: going to finish the season strong. Mac Jones and can
Speaker 3: connect with Brian Thomas Junior. He's gonna go for one
Speaker 3: hundred yards whatever. But they're gonna be over thirty points
Speaker 3: beat the Colts, and Brian Thomas Junior is going to
Speaker 3: have himself another day and get himself into the first
Speaker 3: round of fantasy drafts next year. So it'd be fun.
Speaker 1: I knew those guys were all having amazing rookie seasons, obviously,
Speaker 1: I didn't realize that they were all in the top
Speaker 1: eight of receiving yards this year. Those three rookies, and
Speaker 1: like Chase and Jefferson are out of reach. But some
Speaker 1: of the other names in the topic, like Seedee Lamb
Speaker 1: is not adding any more yards obviously, like Jerry Judy
Speaker 1: is stuck with this quarterback situation in Cleveland. Now, if
Speaker 1: I'm in Ross Brown has a bad game, and these
Speaker 1: three guys have good games to finish, Like, we could
Speaker 1: reasonably see three rookies in the top five of receiving
Speaker 1: yards this year. That is very much on the table
Speaker 1: looking at the leaderboard right now, which is remarkable. Honestly,
Speaker 1: that's like just so impressive for all three of those guys.
Speaker 1: You've been on Brian Thomas all year. I really liked
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas in August and then I just didn't end
Speaker 1: up getting him in a lot of places, and I've
Speaker 1: had a ton of fomo because of that. Welsh what
Speaker 1: do you think about Thomas finishing the season leading all
Speaker 1: rookies and receiving yards, which in most years would already
Speaker 1: be locked if it wasn't for the fact that he
Speaker 1: also has Bowers and neighbors.
Speaker 2: I don't know my next prediction what might play a
Speaker 2: little role into it. I think it is definitely possible.
Speaker 2: He's the big play guy too. I mean, of all
Speaker 2: of these guys, there's you know, obviously there's consistency, mass
Speaker 2: amounts of catches for like Neighbors and Bowers. Thomas is
Speaker 2: the guy that's gonna make the big, big play. So
Speaker 2: I think it's absolutely in play. I'm here for It's
Speaker 2: a great matchup. It's just going to be. I mean,
Speaker 2: all mac Jones does is look at Brian Thomas, which
Speaker 2: you love to see. I remember when Lawrence went down,
Speaker 2: we were all like, oh God, what's gonna happen? Like
Speaker 2: are we going to see? And that's Mac Jones just
Speaker 2: looks at Brian Thomas and goes to him each game.
Speaker 2: So this is definitely in play. Does it lock? I'm
Speaker 2: not one hundred percent sure, especially with my prediction. The
Speaker 2: one question I do have though, Erickson, can you cash
Speaker 2: this bet? Can you buy out of it at all?
Speaker 3: I already looked at it. I can't. I do have
Speaker 3: another one on Neighbors too, So I mean the only
Speaker 3: one that can really just screw me over is Blrock Bowers,
Speaker 3: which he probably will so because he's just that good.
Speaker 3: So I mean I'm ready I'm ready for it. I'm like,
Speaker 3: all right, I mean, hey, this is one of those
Speaker 3: things where I don't want to die on the process.
Speaker 3: I really want the results here.
Speaker 1: Come on, let's get to Welsh's next prediction then, because
Speaker 1: it's about brock Bowers.
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, Bowers might ruin your weekend because brock Bowers needs
Speaker 2: nine catches to break the all time if it's tight
Speaker 2: end record. I believe that's the actual It was zach
Speaker 2: Ertz who had like one sixteen. I believe the number
Speaker 2: was so nine catches to break the all time tight
Speaker 2: end record. Brock Bowers gets ten, He's gonna have ten
Speaker 2: catches in this game. He has caught first off nine
Speaker 2: or more six times this season. He has had ten
Speaker 2: receptions four times this season. He's also received twenty targets
Speaker 2: over his last two games. Maybe the yards will work
Speaker 2: in your favor, but I think we're getting ten balls
Speaker 2: in brock Bauer's hands and what he does with them
Speaker 2: will determine the cash and your wallet. So I don't
Speaker 2: feel super great about it, but you do have that
Speaker 2: little bit of a lead. Ten catches for brock Bowers
Speaker 2: is my bet. I do hope you catch the Brian
Speaker 2: Thomas one. I'm not sure if the Neighbors one is
Speaker 2: going to work out, but Neighbors is super close to
Speaker 2: him as well. But brock Bowers breaking all the records
Speaker 2: of this.
Speaker 1: Weekend scale of one to ten ericson how nervous are
Speaker 1: you about brock Bowers ruining your bets.
Speaker 3: Here, Well, I gotta have a forty yard buffer and
Speaker 3: they're not going for yards, They're going for receptions, So
Speaker 3: it can be as easy as like, let's get them
Speaker 3: screens behind the line of scrimmage, like they don't care
Speaker 3: if it's getting yards or not. Like a catch is
Speaker 3: a catch, So that works in my favorite again, like
Speaker 3: I'd rather be in my spot than having to black
Speaker 3: rock Bowers or leak Neighbors like you're trying to catch me.
Speaker 3: So I'm in the lead. But as we see Mario
Speaker 3: kart Hey, no lead to save. You never know what's
Speaker 3: gonna happen. Those bluees Shells are coming for you, and
Speaker 3: brock Bowers has blue shell in the arsenal, and I'm afraid.
Speaker 1: Blushell comes from the last place teams, He's not gonna
Speaker 1: be getting that.
Speaker 3: As got triple reds and then they're homing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no stars for black Bowers, Eric, So let's
Speaker 1: go to your number two prediction.
Speaker 3: Tony Pollard. He's gonna play this week, hopefully, because it
Speaker 3: doesn't look like Taji Spears is gonna play, and I
Speaker 3: think he's going to hit his incentives. So he's gonna
Speaker 3: rush for eighty three plus yards exactly and hit two
Speaker 3: touchdowns exactly because that's what he needs, that's what he
Speaker 3: needs for his contract incentives. Again, the Titans have been
Speaker 3: a lost season this year. They've actually been the worst
Speaker 3: team I don't remember how long it's been, but against
Speaker 3: the spread, the single worst team like ever. It has
Speaker 3: been absolutely ttrocious for them. So Callahan coming in after
Speaker 3: Mike Rabel has been an utter disaster. They've had super
Speaker 3: low expectations and they have somehow performed under expectations despite
Speaker 3: them being super low. Anyway, we're getting a dual quarterback
Speaker 3: usage this week between Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, which
Speaker 3: tells you Steam's not trying to necessarily win this game.
Speaker 3: This team is trying to evaluate its quarterbacks, and I
Speaker 3: think it's pretty obvious to tell neither quarterback is going
Speaker 3: to be the answer. In twenty twenty five but when
Speaker 3: you look at Pollard, any three rushing yards away from
Speaker 3: one thy one hundred, so that's a two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty K bonus, and he scores two touchdowns, that's going
Speaker 3: to be another two hundred thousand dollars that he'll hit
Speaker 3: his contract. And it's interesting because the touchdowns one I
Speaker 3: don't feel as great about because in the last two
Speaker 3: games where Pollard and Spears have played together, Spears has
Speaker 3: had four rushing touchdowns, So like they had opportunities to
Speaker 3: give Pollard those touchdowns, but they did it instead of
Speaker 3: giving them to Spears. I know Pollard's been banged up
Speaker 3: a little bit the last couple of weeks, but he's
Speaker 3: going to be the guys more healthy this week. I
Speaker 3: don't think Spears is going to play at all. So
Speaker 3: I like Tony Pollard. He used to get eighty three
Speaker 3: rushing yards and then I think he's gonna at least
Speaker 3: store one touchdown. So anytime touchdowns two touchdowns, I think
Speaker 3: Tody Pollard they're going to try to feed him if
Speaker 3: they get in, especially with Spears out, and the Texans
Speaker 3: are kind of I'm not really sure what they're doing.
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think anybody really knows what the
Speaker 3: Texans are doing, because conventional wisdom would suggest, well, they've
Speaker 3: nothing to play for, they should bench everybody. But they
Speaker 3: also played so horrible on Christmas that, dude, are they
Speaker 3: really just going to backdoor their way into the playoffs
Speaker 3: and hope that everything changes? Like it seems like they
Speaker 3: should play their guys to just build some type of momentum.
Speaker 3: We all kind of know that this team's not going
Speaker 3: to make a playoff run. But if I were them
Speaker 3: and be like, no, we got to play our guys, like,
Speaker 3: we can't play like we did on Christmas, and they
Speaker 3: be like, all right, we're good to go for the playoffs,
Speaker 3: Like let's rest everybody, rest them from what they need
Speaker 3: to play better. So and you've seen that reflected in
Speaker 3: the line movement, like it was pretty heavy on the
Speaker 3: Titans as favorites, and now you're seeing Houston like minus
Speaker 3: it's like almost a pick them in in some places.
Speaker 3: So I'm not really sure. Nobody really knows what the
Speaker 3: Houston Texas are going to do. So if it's more competitive, again,
Speaker 3: going back to Tony Pollard, that's what I'm more sure
Speaker 3: about in this matchup.
Speaker 1: I completely agree as far as the Texans, like I
Speaker 1: would play if I were them, Like I you, it's
Speaker 1: not just that Christmas game that was like the kind
Speaker 1: of the big one that everybody saw, but like they weren't.
Speaker 1: They just have not been playing well for a while
Speaker 1: and it kind of all came to a head on
Speaker 1: Christmas Day. But on the Tennessee side, I feel like,
Speaker 1: you know, I haven't been focusing that heavily at that
Speaker 1: kind of the race for the number one pick this
Speaker 1: year because a there's no like generational quarterback prospect this year,
Speaker 1: at least the way people are looking at it, and
Speaker 1: be like, it's just a lot of teams that, like
Speaker 1: I didn't, I didn't find that interesting to kind of
Speaker 1: be fighting for the number one spot. The Titans are
Speaker 1: currently picking second, Like there is every possibility that you know,
Speaker 1: going into next season they have Shud or Sanders or
Speaker 1: I guess I would guess Dion would kind of you know,
Speaker 1: manipulate it so he wasn't there, but like cam Ward
Speaker 1: could be their quarterback next year, or you know, somebody
Speaker 1: else who's coming out and and kind of rises late
Speaker 1: in the process. So like they're just kind of the
Speaker 1: forgotten team for me in the you know, I keep
Speaker 1: thinking about, like the job. So they just lost a
Speaker 1: number one pick, Like the Patriots are there, but they
Speaker 1: don't need a quarterback. You know, the Raiders won a quarterback,
Speaker 1: but they're picking eighth right now, like the Titans like
Speaker 1: are picking second and need a quarterback. And I'll be
Speaker 1: really curious to see kind of like what direction they
Speaker 1: take that because this was such a last season and like,
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think I don't think Callahan's gonna
Speaker 1: be one and done as a head coach, but like it,
Speaker 1: it was not an impressive year from him by any stretch. Welsh,
Speaker 1: what do you think about Tony Pollard this week?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I like it, especially with Spears being out, having
Speaker 2: like that hardcore of an incentive. I just was laughing
Speaker 2: when you were like, he'll have exactly those yards and
Speaker 2: then he'll be out, Like that makes me laugh, But
Speaker 2: I do think I'll hit it. By the way, to
Speaker 2: jump on what you were saying, the Titans are two
Speaker 2: and fourteen against the spread. I was looking at that
Speaker 2: when you said that two and fourteen on the year.
Speaker 3: Is why the two teams I covered against because I
Speaker 3: right at the VP Prime every week it was against
Speaker 3: the Texans, who have been also really bad against the
Speaker 3: spread this year, and when they meet the Patriots in overtime,
Speaker 3: that was it wild number.
Speaker 1: Well, what's your next prediction.
Speaker 2: I'm going back to the Jamison Williams. Well, maybe boring,
Speaker 2: but JMO going to continue on with that crazy pitch
Speaker 2: pass to him which saved me some money definitely on
Speaker 2: some bets. But he's just been a bigger target monster
Speaker 2: in this offense. As defenses are definitely focused on a
Speaker 2: manra they want to get the ball out of Jamison Williams.
Speaker 2: And that's the biggest change that's happened year over year,
Speaker 2: is like first read targets, design plays for Jamison Williams.
Speaker 2: So I think he's going to go over one hundred
Speaker 2: and the Lions are going to beat the Vikings in
Speaker 2: this wild matchup. Maybe the other prediction should have been,
Speaker 2: like they do actually hit the over ridiculous over But
Speaker 2: Vikings are giving up the second most receiving yards on
Speaker 2: the year to wide receiver, but also that has maintained
Speaker 2: over the last month, the last four weeks, second most
Speaker 2: receiving yards overall to wideouts, and he has caught five
Speaker 2: passes in five of his last six games, so he
Speaker 2: is getting a massive amount of targets. He's the guy
Speaker 2: that stretches the field. A couple opportunities that were missed
Speaker 2: in that forty nine er game as well, but you're
Speaker 2: seeing the targets go up in Ah. If you believe
Speaker 2: it's going to be a shootout based on that score,
Speaker 2: you should be in on overs for a lot of
Speaker 2: these guys, specifically Jamison Williams. I believe he also needs
Speaker 2: it's like fifty yards to one thousand, so you can
Speaker 2: hit a thousand yard season coming up here. So big,
Speaker 2: big incoming week for Jmo Erickson.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 3: I mean, he's playing in the Dome and a game
Speaker 3: with the with like the highest total I've seen I've
Speaker 3: ever seen since I think that game in Mexico between
Speaker 3: the Rams and Chiefs. I think that game was pushing
Speaker 3: like sixty points. So you got one of the same
Speaker 3: quarterbacks playing in this matchup. It's interesting because when you
Speaker 3: look at like historically the number at fifty seven, when
Speaker 3: games have closed at fifty seven and fifty seven and
Speaker 3: a half or above, the over is actually hit at
Speaker 3: a seventy percent rate. So if the lines like settle
Speaker 3: on fifty seven to fifty seven and a half, then no,
Speaker 3: it is going to go over something.
Speaker 1: He go down it's fifty six and a half.
Speaker 3: Now yeah, So that so it's interesting because that is
Speaker 3: a key number because when the number is closed at
Speaker 3: fifty six and a half, it's not positive towards the over.
Speaker 3: So again, as I've always that the overs a chorus
Speaker 3: field of the NFL, but in this particular match, if
Speaker 3: it closed the fifty six and a half, the books
Speaker 3: are saying, no, this isn't gonna happen, It's gonna go
Speaker 3: under the total. If anything, the confidence would be backing
Speaker 3: the over end. I think there's gonna be a lot
Speaker 3: of sharp money on the under because I think that's
Speaker 3: just an obvious play. I mean, this total is just
Speaker 3: it's so.
Speaker 2: High, it just bonkers.
Speaker 3: Again, anything can happen, and if it goes over, then
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter if you made the quote unquote right
Speaker 3: sharp move. But I think that the sharp plays clearly
Speaker 3: to take the under.
Speaker 1: In there is a nineteen point gap between the highest
Speaker 1: total of the week and the lowest, which is thirty
Speaker 1: seven and a half for New York and Philly. Like
Speaker 1: I cannot remember ever seeing a gap like that, but
Speaker 1: two games in the same week, just like almost a
Speaker 1: twenty point gap. If it was one more point, it's.
Speaker 3: It's it's pretty bonkers. I did want to say one
Speaker 3: thing you because it reminded me of something when you
Speaker 3: mentioned it. Welsh they're gonna get or Jamil has a
Speaker 3: chance to get a thousand receiving yards. What about this
Speaker 3: Juwan Jennings south Sayer, they're talking about getting him a
Speaker 3: thousand yards? But about that Joshua Dobbs coming in, They
Speaker 3: got the Tennessee connection. We saw him come in and
Speaker 3: kind of immediately target Jennings after it was a Ricky
Speaker 3: Pearson is it? I mean he only needs like eighty
Speaker 3: seventy or seventy seven yards? Does he get to a thousand? Soothsayer?
Speaker 2: Come on, no, he does, one hundred percent does But yeah, no,
Speaker 2: that one hurt me. Just as a side note, I
Speaker 2: had like a big bet, like fourteen hundred bucks on
Speaker 2: the line for George Kittle. It was a couple leg
Speaker 2: thing to just get a touchdown. Perdy gets knocked out,
Speaker 2: Dobbs is in, he throws that ball to Kittle, we
Speaker 2: get to the five yard line. I'm like, please, we
Speaker 2: just all we needed was the Kittle touchdown, and he
Speaker 2: doesn't get it to Kittle and then he tries to
Speaker 2: throw to Jennings and I'm like, this is not gonna happen.
Speaker 2: Then he ran the ball in and ruined absolutely everything
Speaker 2: that aside me hating Josh Dobbs for that Tennessee connection
Speaker 2: one hundred percent. He's gonna be slaying the ball to
Speaker 2: Jennings and he's going to get that number for sure.
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Speaker 1: and put our best foot forward here into twenty twenty five. Rickson,
Speaker 1: what's your last prediction?
Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins scores a touchdown? Now I did right, officially
Speaker 3: catches a touchdown from Carson Wentz, And now I'm realizing
Speaker 3: I made many a mistake with that because we've seen
Speaker 3: the Chiefs do weird things at the goal line. So
Speaker 3: watch him catch touchdown. Not from Carson Wentz, some other quarterback,
Speaker 3: no one Gray, Okay, we god this. The prediction is
Speaker 3: Hopkins scores a touchdown. It's because he is a one
Speaker 3: touchdown away from five hundred thousand dollars bonus in his contract.
Speaker 3: And I don't think the Chiefs can necessarily sit everybody
Speaker 3: in this game. I think they're gonna sit obviously their
Speaker 3: main starters, but I think Hopkins wants hey throw me
Speaker 3: on the red zone and I'll catch touchdown and then
Speaker 3: I get my money. So I think he's gonna play
Speaker 3: enough where he gets red zone packages and he catches
Speaker 3: a touchdown. So Hopkins touchdown for me. The official prediction
Speaker 3: is from Carson Wentz, and I can't wait for it
Speaker 3: to be mccle hartman that throws him in the touchdown,
Speaker 3: So that'll be great.
Speaker 1: It is a good point by you, Erickson that these
Speaker 1: teams that have nothing to play for, you can't sit
Speaker 1: every You do need to field a playable team. And
Speaker 1: the guys that that's like obviously like you don't want
Speaker 1: to risk it with somebody like you know, Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: or whatever, but like you know, Travis Kelsey's older Anddre
Speaker 1: Hopkins is older too, but like there is a limit
Speaker 1: to like you literally cannot sit everybody that you want
Speaker 1: to if you're one of these really good teams with
Speaker 1: a lot of stars. The Ravens right into this last
Speaker 1: year where like they had to play guys that normally
Speaker 1: you would want to sit because you just have to.
Speaker 1: So you know it, Hoptons might be one of those
Speaker 1: guys who's in there, and if you're playing, you might
Speaker 1: as well try and go get you know this contract incentive. Well,
Speaker 1: sh do you like DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown?
Speaker 2: Yeah? What I like about it too, And what you're
Speaker 2: talking about here is like not everybody can play in
Speaker 2: blah blah bab. He won't be in any series until
Speaker 2: they get to the red zone. That'll be the big thing,
Speaker 2: especially if you don't want to play. He just sits
Speaker 2: on the sideline. They get into the red zone and
Speaker 2: then in comes DeAndre Hopkins for so they can really
Speaker 2: control and maintain this. So I one hundred percent they
Speaker 2: think they're going to give him an opportunity out this
Speaker 2: obviously assuming that the team gets in the red zone.
Speaker 2: But I think inside the twenty, inside the ten, that's
Speaker 2: where it'll be some Hopkins packages, and I'm definitely in
Speaker 2: on this. I also love that there's like I like
Speaker 2: that a lot of these teams and like coaches and stuff,
Speaker 2: you're almost playing against the organization still because maybe you know,
Speaker 2: these billionaires don't necessarily care, but they're sitting there and
Speaker 2: be like, don't put this guy in for half a
Speaker 2: million dollars. But coaches and everybody like they're going to
Speaker 2: be supportive. They're going to give some opportunities for it
Speaker 2: to happen, and I think it will with that club.
Speaker 2: And I like this one.
Speaker 1: Plus four to twenty five anytime touchdown score on DraftKings
Speaker 1: plus twenty five hundred first touchdown score.
Speaker 3: And then if he doesn't play, it gets avoided. Right,
Speaker 3: So you also you also have that option too he
Speaker 3: doesn't play a snap, then you get your money back.
Speaker 2: So what was there anytime on Hopkins?
Speaker 1: Uh four to twenty five plus four twenty.
Speaker 2: Five that's pretty high.
Speaker 1: First, I kind of did a double take to make
Speaker 1: sure I'm looking at it right.
Speaker 2: But I guess they assume he's not going to start
Speaker 2: or play much or anything.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's about Yeah, that's a boat mine. Take advantage people.
Speaker 2: I gotta jump on that or gu we're done.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was updated on DraftKings earlier this morning. Yeah,
Speaker 1: plus four twenty five anytime touchdown and plus twenty five
Speaker 1: hundred first touchdown.
Speaker 3: I mean, if he does anything in this game, it's
Speaker 3: going to be a touchdown touchdown.
Speaker 2: That's the point, Like, if you're good, if there's anything,
Speaker 2: it's going to be red zone targets. That would that's
Speaker 2: what he would be there for. I'm not doing yards,
Speaker 2: I'm not doing catches, just touchdown.
Speaker 1: Welsh, what is your final prediction of the show.
Speaker 2: All right, this is the easiest one of the week.
Speaker 2: It's a smash. I will say I did have, Like
Speaker 2: I know I mentioned earlier, my number one was going
Speaker 2: to be the Saquan one hundred and one yards. He
Speaker 2: was gonna do it in the first half. Obviously he's
Speaker 2: not playing, but this is the smash of the smash weeks.
Speaker 2: It's Mike Evans. Mike Evans is going to have a
Speaker 2: hundred yard day and he is going to also have
Speaker 2: a touchdown, even though his incentive is not tied to
Speaker 2: the touchdowns because last week, remember when I said two,
Speaker 2: he already hit that. He needs five catches eighty five
Speaker 2: yards to get his I think it's a three million
Speaker 2: dollar bonus. He needed all those things to piece together.
Speaker 2: So this is not not to be dismissive about, like
Speaker 2: my JK. Dobbins one. This isn't like one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty five thousand, This isn't half a million. There's a
Speaker 2: three million dollar bonus. Also, the books have already put
Speaker 2: this is what I was alluding to earlier. Mike Kevin's
Speaker 2: receiving yard line ninety one. It's opened up at. That's
Speaker 2: a wild number to open up at. But because everybody
Speaker 2: knows where the incentives are at. The Bucks are playing
Speaker 2: for the NFC South title, so you know the importance
Speaker 2: of winning this game is absolutely in play. He's had
Speaker 2: ninety seven or more yards and three of his last
Speaker 2: five games eight catches in three of his last five games.
Speaker 2: Eight catches are more. You need five, you need eighty five.
Speaker 2: Lock lock, Let's throw a touchdown in there, because it's
Speaker 2: an important game. Lock it up. I don't know if
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be able to get in on that yard
Speaker 2: prop because.
Speaker 3: It went up.
Speaker 1: By the way it went up, it's ninety five and
Speaker 1: a half now.
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna guess his catches are probably gonna be
Speaker 2: They're probably gonna lock it at six and a half,
Speaker 2: maybe seven because he needs five, so maybe they'll mess
Speaker 2: around at five and a half. I'm gonna guess it's
Speaker 2: gonna be six and a half. It's gonna be very tempting.
Speaker 2: But because of the volume that he's going to need
Speaker 2: and the importance of winning this game, the anytime touchdown
Speaker 2: is going to be in play. It wasn't. It was
Speaker 2: minus money last week, but it's smashed, so I love
Speaker 2: all of it. So we're going one hundred and a
Speaker 2: touchdown for Mike Evans and him securing I believe the
Speaker 2: tenth straight one thousand yard receiving season and a three
Speaker 2: million dollar bonus.
Speaker 1: It'd be eleventh, right because he was drafting twenty fourteen eleven?
Speaker 1: Is that right? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Sure, all of that. Yeah whatever.
Speaker 1: It is remarkable, remarkable streak. He's insane ericson We all
Speaker 1: think that Evans is gonna hit these incentives. What do
Speaker 1: you think about that ninety five and a half line?
Speaker 1: Are you taking the over and that?
Speaker 3: I mean, this is literally gonna happen. He's going to
Speaker 3: break the records, but then not hit any of this.
Speaker 1: But by the way, the over over is minus one thirty.
Speaker 3: That's what I mean. That's why he's gonna have what's
Speaker 3: gonna be. He has six catches for ninety yards, right,
Speaker 3: So everybody loses all their money because they've met the overs.
Speaker 3: But he's happy because he gets a thousand yards. He
Speaker 3: gets his five catches that he needs, but he doesn't
Speaker 3: actually get So I mean, if you can all bet this,
Speaker 3: like I think take maybe just do the over five
Speaker 3: and a half catches over eighty yards or something like that. Maybe,
Speaker 3: and it's going to be heavy juice anyway. But if
Speaker 3: you combine their receptions in the yards because you don't
Speaker 3: want to be playing against what the incentive actually is, right,
Speaker 3: they know once he gets it that he's good to go,
Speaker 3: and that necessarily divorce things. It does from a matchup perspective, though,
Speaker 3: if I'm the Saints, I'm putting Calvin Johnson double coverage
Speaker 3: on Mike Evans.
Speaker 2: Because hate coverage.
Speaker 3: I mean, look, the Saints arrivals with the Buccaneers. They
Speaker 3: don't want to make it easy on Mike Evans. And
Speaker 3: it's interesting because it's the one time we have had
Speaker 3: the Saints matchup where there is no Marshall Lattimore like
Speaker 3: this has been his achilles heel his entire NFL career.
Speaker 3: As though he gets Marshawn Lattimore, he's no longer on
Speaker 3: the team. And it's interesting because when they've had these
Speaker 3: previous matchups, it's not even because of Latimore that he's
Speaker 3: been knocked out. He's been ejected in games. He's left
Speaker 3: every game with an injury, it seems like with a hammy.
Speaker 3: Even this year when he played the Saints, he didn't
Speaker 3: play the full game because he got hurt. So that's
Speaker 3: the other thing too, is if he gets hanged up,
Speaker 3: obviously he wouldn't hit his incentives. But I'm interested to
Speaker 3: see if the Saints just throw everything at Mike Evans
Speaker 3: like no, like, we're not gonna let him make this
Speaker 3: easy on him, and we're gonna do everything to stop him.
Speaker 3: And I mean, they want to win this game, they
Speaker 3: want to play spoiler in some way. Again, I don't
Speaker 3: think that they can win, especially against the B team,
Speaker 3: but it would be interesting to see if Rizzy's like, no,
Speaker 3: our goal is to make sure Mike Evans doesn't get
Speaker 3: to one thousand receiving yards. We're gonna throw everything at
Speaker 3: at him. To stop him, and Baker Mayfield has as
Speaker 3: good as he's been this year. He's throwing a lot
Speaker 3: of interceptions.
Speaker 2: It sounds like you might want to play an under
Speaker 2: By the way, Baker has an incentive as well. I
Speaker 2: just had it before and I went away from it.
Speaker 2: It's like the completion percentage to be in like the
Speaker 2: top ten. I think of completion percentage in the league,
Speaker 2: and it's a multimillion dollar bonus attached to it. So
Speaker 2: not that that's going to like drive anything, but you know,
Speaker 2: probably maybe be looking a little bit more screen passy. There.
Speaker 2: Sounds like you might want to play a Mike Evans
Speaker 2: under on receiving errands this week because you can go
Speaker 2: under ninety five and he can still hit his goal.
Speaker 1: Under is also even money, but that's not fun.
Speaker 2: It's not fun, undertaker.
Speaker 3: I know, I want to do the reception. I want
Speaker 3: to do the receptions and the receiving yards like because
Speaker 3: like I think ultimately he's gonna get it. I mean,
Speaker 3: he's one. He's a Hall of Fame receiver. Again talking
Speaker 3: about theoretically with the Saints, oh they could do this
Speaker 3: and that, but it's also like Dan Rizzi man, like
Speaker 3: is he actually gonna do this, like probably not, and
Speaker 3: they just don't have they don't have the ponies anymore.
Speaker 2: We've also heard Baker specifically talk about this thousand yard marker,
Speaker 2: which is super important. And I just reiterate again, this
Speaker 2: is not like a half or quarter million dollar bonus.
Speaker 2: This is three million dollars. This is a huge bonus
Speaker 2: that they're one hundred percent going to be paying attention to.
Speaker 1: Also, they need to win this game still technically, I
Speaker 1: mean he likely there is they can get in the
Speaker 1: playoffs without winning, but like they want to win to
Speaker 1: clinch the division, and it is like good practice to
Speaker 1: throw the bottom with Mike Evit's like it's not like
Speaker 1: he's some you know, terrible player at this point in
Speaker 1: his career that you're just doing like giving charity to,
Speaker 1: Like he's their best receiver, like they want to throw
Speaker 1: to him to win this game, even aside from the
Speaker 1: fact that there's all these incentives too.
Speaker 3: So and he can also make play. I mean, he
Speaker 3: can be double covered and still cast the ball really
Speaker 3: like that was before. If anything, like that's where he thrives.
Speaker 2: He's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, or wrapp up there, Thanks everybody
Speaker 1: for tuning in. If you do you have a matchup
Speaker 1: in week eighteen, I apologize on behalf of your commissioner
Speaker 1: and best of luck to you. Hopefully this is just
Speaker 1: serving as more of a preview or maybe some subbending
Speaker 1: or dfs for you, but best of luck if you
Speaker 1: do have a matchup there four Welsh and Ericsson. I'm
Speaker 1: Ryan warmly thank you everybody for tuning in and we'll
Speaker 1: see again next week. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
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