WEBVTT - A Look at Energy, ESG, and Addressing Climate Change

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watches on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. We're watching the energy markets once again,

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<v Speaker 1>Open Plus agreeing to increase the size of its oil

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<v Speaker 1>supply hikes by about fifty in a deal that kept

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<v Speaker 1>Rush at the heart of the cartel while also heating

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<v Speaker 1>pressure from major consumers, including the YES and the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>Excuse me meantime, we've got the EU approving a six

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<v Speaker 1>packet of sanctions, including a partial ban on Russian oil imports,

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<v Speaker 1>after further objections from Hungry held up in agreement. Great

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<v Speaker 1>to have with us right now. Dr ellen Wald, President

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<v Speaker 1>of Transversal Consulting, also senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,

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<v Speaker 1>Andy Bloomberg opinion contributor. Ellen's joining us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from Jacksonville, Florida. Dr Wald, good to have you with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you explain to me why, given the news that

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<v Speaker 1>that we got from about OPEC increasing the size of

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<v Speaker 1>its oil supply, uh, why we're not seeing oil prices

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<v Speaker 1>pulled back at all? Exactly. Well, the part of the

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<v Speaker 1>reason is because we're unlikely to see the amount of

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<v Speaker 1>oil that actually actually get on the market that OPEC

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<v Speaker 1>is talking about increasing their quotas by so um. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're we're talking about an increase of about six hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty barrels a day for the group's quotas. But

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<v Speaker 1>at this point really only Saudi Arabia and the UAE

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<v Speaker 1>can increase production, and to the maximum amount of production

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<v Speaker 1>we can see it increase out of Saudi Arabia that

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<v Speaker 1>we would expect to see would be about a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and seventy thousand barrels per day, which is really not

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<v Speaker 1>that much when you consider the size of the global

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<v Speaker 1>oil markets. So um. While a lot you know, pay

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<v Speaker 1>members are free to increase if they can, we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about a group where a lot of them are just

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<v Speaker 1>tapped out. So Ellen I earlier talked to the CFO

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<v Speaker 1>of Chevron for an upcoming Bloomberg event, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we were reminded that there are energy booms and energy busts,

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<v Speaker 1>and he says, this is cyclical and it will settle

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<v Speaker 1>down again. And so, you know, do producers think about that,

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<v Speaker 1>Especially when you think about the major integrated global oil companies,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that in terms of kind of investments to

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<v Speaker 1>really ramp up supply, they're going to be hesitant because

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<v Speaker 1>they know it's cyclical and there's also a world that

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<v Speaker 1>we're supposed to be increasingly moving towards alternative energy. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that they are definitely aware of the cyclical

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<v Speaker 1>nature of the oil market, and oil companies are used

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<v Speaker 1>to this kind of boom and bust. In fact, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at hiring when it comes to oil companies,

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<v Speaker 1>you know they'll hire a lot of people when things

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<v Speaker 1>are good, and then when prices collapse, a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>them end up getting laid off and and that's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the nature of of the business. It's interesting because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, high oil prices do tend to spur investment

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<v Speaker 1>and development of new resources, but that takes time. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not something that happens overnight. And UM, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's taking a bit more time in this cycle because

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<v Speaker 1>there's so much external pressure on oil companies not to

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<v Speaker 1>invest in new resources. Be that from UM shareholders who

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<v Speaker 1>are really just looking to see oil companies putting uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, putting their profits back into uh dividends and

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<v Speaker 1>and other things to return uh money to shareholders or UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We're also seeing pressure from governments. They are making it

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult for companies to uh, you know, to develop

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<v Speaker 1>new resources. The US, for example, has there's been a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of regulatory uncertain t with a buid administration, and

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<v Speaker 1>that makes companies very hesitant to expand we're just now

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<v Speaker 1>starting to see companies in Europe expanding in you know,

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<v Speaker 1>new gas fields, for example. But those kinds of fields

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<v Speaker 1>are not going to come on into production for some time.

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<v Speaker 1>So we may be into a period of uh it

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<v Speaker 1>may be a bit of an extended period of high prices,

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<v Speaker 1>just like we saw an extended period of low prices

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<v Speaker 1>preceding it. What does an extended period of high prices mean?

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<v Speaker 1>Because everything that you just said, Dr Wald makes me

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<v Speaker 1>think that there's no end in sight to five six

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<v Speaker 1>dollar downs of gas at the pump and high energy

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<v Speaker 1>bills in summer and winter. And I'm curious what extended

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<v Speaker 1>means and what how high it might go in that extension. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>how high it goes depends on It depends on a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things. And also we are seeing. Part of

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing in the market is also there's there's

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<v Speaker 1>a premium and prices, both electricity prices and gasoline prices

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<v Speaker 1>up from the geopolitical events in Europe without a out. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if that were to say, be resolved in

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<v Speaker 1>the next couple of months, I think we would definitely

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<v Speaker 1>see prices pulled back, although I really don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>barring you know, if if we're still at the same

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<v Speaker 1>levels of demand, I'm not sure that we would see

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<v Speaker 1>a return to say, like you know, forty or fifty

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<v Speaker 1>or even sixty dollar oil. We'd probably be more firmly

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<v Speaker 1>in the seventy eighty maybe ninety dollar area. Now that

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<v Speaker 1>of course sounds great when you're talking about prices are

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<v Speaker 1>like a hundred and eleven today, so you know, so

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<v Speaker 1>so it is all all kind of relative um and

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<v Speaker 1>the oil market is very volatile right now, and it

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<v Speaker 1>does depend if we enter a period of economic recession

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<v Speaker 1>and potentially contraction, we could also see demand drop and

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<v Speaker 1>that could help cause oil prices to pull back some.

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<v Speaker 1>Though I still don't don't see us getting back to

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<v Speaker 1>those low numbers that we had, you know, in twenty nineteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Ellen just quickly just got about here, will though today's

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<v Speaker 1>current situation geopolitical crisis lead the world to think about

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<v Speaker 1>Venezuela more aggressively despite problems obviously with that political environment

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<v Speaker 1>or present Biden meeting with MBS in Saudi Arabia. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>do we need to think that these alliances are going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to change? Sorry, just got about seconds. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's difficult to say that because Venezuela has

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<v Speaker 1>such issues with its oil industry anyway, that we can't

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<v Speaker 1>expect a lot of oil to come on the market

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<v Speaker 1>from from them anyway, regardless. Alright, situation, Ellen, Always nice

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<v Speaker 1>to get time with you, Dr Ellen Wall. She is

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<v Speaker 1>President of Transversal Consulting, Senior Fellow a the Atlantic Council,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinion contributor, and she also wrote the book Saudi Inc.

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<v Speaker 1>On the history of Aramka Ramka excuse me in Saudi Arabia.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it is a thirty billion dollar market cap company customers

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<v Speaker 1>around the globe, more than two thousand locations around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>helping to create so called intelligent buildings to help address

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<v Speaker 1>our worsening climate crisis. We're talking about Johnson Controls International,

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<v Speaker 1>which is also a company's got a great vantage point

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the global economy and corporate expenditures. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's exactly where I want to start with George Oliver,

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<v Speaker 1>Chairman and chief executive officer of Johnson Controls. George joining

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<v Speaker 1>us via zoom from Milwaukee. George, how are you. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>doing very well. Great to be with you today. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>as Carroll mentioned, you do have such a great view

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<v Speaker 1>on what's going on here in the United States and

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. What is your view of the economy

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US. Yeah, when we look at what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening within our business, um, you know, we see unprecedented

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<v Speaker 1>demand for what we do within buildings. You know. Let

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<v Speaker 1>me start by talking about what we do were smart

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<v Speaker 1>solutions provider for buildings and infrastructure, and uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we did a merger five years ago which put together

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<v Speaker 1>to leadership companies in the space Tycho and John's Controls,

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<v Speaker 1>and what our strategy of of taking the multiple you know,

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<v Speaker 1>building systems and then being able to deploy technology with

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<v Speaker 1>a data platform that enables us to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>significantly change the outcome of buildings. And those outcomes are

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<v Speaker 1>reducing energy demand, improving the indoor indoor air quality, and

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately you know, making autonomous buildings. And so for us,

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<v Speaker 1>given the the the environment that we're in, we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>very strong demand. We've got backlogs that are that are

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<v Speaker 1>reckon high backlogs. Our challenges have been shorter term is

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately converting with the supply chain challenges on that demand.

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<v Speaker 1>And when you look at what we do within buildings,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, when you look at the global carbon footprint,

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<v Speaker 1>it represents about the of the overall global covernment footprint

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<v Speaker 1>buildings do. And then the opportunity that we have now

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<v Speaker 1>as a smart building solutions provider to significantly reduce the

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<v Speaker 1>energy that's consumed in the building at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>that we're upgrading the indoor air quality and ultimately creating

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<v Speaker 1>an autonomous, autonomous build So for us, we're watching the

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<v Speaker 1>economy closely. But given what we see now going forward,

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<v Speaker 1>where now buildings have become much more strategic um. I

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<v Speaker 1>think in the past they buildings were built with multiple

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<v Speaker 1>systems separating apart, and now with the opportunity to bring

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<v Speaker 1>that all together into one solution set, we're seeing very

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<v Speaker 1>strong demand. So when we look at the market that

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately is being created with these new problems that our

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<v Speaker 1>customers are are trying to solve, we see roughly accumulative

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<v Speaker 1>about billion dollars of additional market over the next decade.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're watching it closely, but right now we're really

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<v Speaker 1>focused on being able to execute on the backlock to

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<v Speaker 1>support our customers. It's interesting when you talk about unprecedented demand,

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<v Speaker 1>strong demand, UM George. How much of it is because

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<v Speaker 1>of companies looking to cut costs and be more efficient.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of is it because of regulatory changes or

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<v Speaker 1>the push towards you know, concerns about climate change and

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<v Speaker 1>being much more sustainable. How much of the demand is

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<v Speaker 1>new build Well, when you look at let me start

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<v Speaker 1>with the commitments have been made on climate change or

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<v Speaker 1>or decarbonization that have been made broadly across businesses as

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<v Speaker 1>well as with governments, and I think coming back from

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<v Speaker 1>Davos from last week, it's how do we take all

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<v Speaker 1>of the commitments that have been made and ultimately how

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<v Speaker 1>do we now you know, bring that together with a

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<v Speaker 1>combination that's shared between business and government and ultimately now

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<v Speaker 1>capitalize on what we see the opportunity to be. So

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<v Speaker 1>for us with those commitments and recognizing now to get

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<v Speaker 1>to net zero, buildings are going to be an important

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<v Speaker 1>part that have to be addressed to get to the

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<v Speaker 1>commitments that have been made. So we're seeing that for instance,

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<v Speaker 1>in our in our sustainable sustainable solutions business, we we

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<v Speaker 1>see a pipeline now or of let's say about seven

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars and will convert roughly a billion of that

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<v Speaker 1>during during the course of the year. So we are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a significant demand for the type of solutions that

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<v Speaker 1>we can now provide. And where you are uniquely positioned

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<v Speaker 1>as Johnson Controls that not only do we have the

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<v Speaker 1>billing systems, but now with our open Blue platform, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a platform that allows us to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>bridge all of the building systems together and then ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>create outputs that historically haven't been delivered. All right, So

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<v Speaker 1>help me out here. So how much though is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of that demand, if you had to put

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<v Speaker 1>it into cuts of a pie or percentage wise, how

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<v Speaker 1>much of that demand is new build how much of

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<v Speaker 1>is it cause of regulatory change? You know? How can

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<v Speaker 1>you break it down a little bit? I'm curious about

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<v Speaker 1>what's the psyche of people who are who are doing

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<v Speaker 1>the spend. So Carola, what I would say, it's both

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<v Speaker 1>with the pandemic. When the pandemic hit, we immediately saw

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<v Speaker 1>our demand to be able to upgrade the indoor air quality,

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<v Speaker 1>which requires upgrading systems and deploying digital to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to then optimize how you deliver a clean air delivery

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<v Speaker 1>rate within buildings. So we saw that which is really

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<v Speaker 1>taken the built environment and being able to elevate that

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<v Speaker 1>built environment to solve for today's problem. So lot of retrofit,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of upgrade, a lot of repair, leveraging our

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<v Speaker 1>our technologies. Now at the same time you've seen the

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<v Speaker 1>new construction come back. You know, when you look at

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<v Speaker 1>Architectural Building Buildings Index and a lot of the other

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<v Speaker 1>metrics you've see whether there has been an expansion and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of that growth is coming back. So for us,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been both and it's not only a significant demand

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<v Speaker 1>for upgrading the existing built environment, but at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time fundamentally changing how buildings are built that ultimately going

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to deliver a significant different outcome as

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<v Speaker 1>it relates to energy consumed as well as the environment

0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 1>that's created. One thing I want to know, George Um,

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 1>you know it's interesting are David Weston catching up with

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 1>Larry Think over a black rock and talking about we're

0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 1>gonna be living with more uncertainty, saying the inflation problem

0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:51.560
<v Speaker 1>isn't you know, it's policy related, but that the fet

0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:55.960
<v Speaker 1>isn't someone who can fix some of these issues. Specifically

0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 1>talked about the supply chain, UH and the supply chain problems.

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:02.120
<v Speaker 1>How is your supply chain? Are you seeing any kind

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 1>of loosening in some of the snarls that have been

0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.199
<v Speaker 1>out there if you look at what's happened over the

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 1>last couple of years with the pandemic and then the

0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:13.320
<v Speaker 1>multiple shutdowns that have occurred to contain the virus, and

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.680
<v Speaker 1>now some of what we're experiencing in China with the

0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 1>shutdowns there, I mean, then at the same time with

0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:22.360
<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine crisis and and then with in our space

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 1>the unprecedented demands. So when you put all of that together,

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.320
<v Speaker 1>we've we've had our own challenges and we've it's really

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 1>about resiliency, and so not only with what we do

0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.080
<v Speaker 1>to help our customers with their buildings and infrastructure and

0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 1>creating resilient, much more resilient buildings and communities, but also

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.679
<v Speaker 1>making sure that we're working with our suppliers to create

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.200
<v Speaker 1>a much more resilient supply chain globally. And that's what

0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:46.280
<v Speaker 1>that's what we've been doing the last two years, and

0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.079
<v Speaker 1>we've made a tremendous amount of progress. Now what we're

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:52.480
<v Speaker 1>seeing is with that strategy, we are seeing improvement um

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 1>and and it's across all of our commodities, whether it

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 1>be microchips and semiconductors or other other materials, and so

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 1>we've been working through it um. But resiliency in in

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 1>in supply chains and mean, George, what does that mean?

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 1>Does it mean you're shifting where you're doing it or

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 1>what does that mean. We've always had a strategy in

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 1>our supply chain to be local for local and so

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 1>when you are manufacturing footprint. We have manufacturing footprint and

0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 1>all of the key markets we support, and then we

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:23.440
<v Speaker 1>build local supply chains to support those manufacturing plants with

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.600
<v Speaker 1>local supply and so there are when you're building a

0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.520
<v Speaker 1>global supply chain, there are some products that are used

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 1>across multiple markets and so you can't predict you know,

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 1>whether it be the environment and natural disasters or pandemics

0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 1>or you know, these some of the geopolitical challenges that

0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 1>that might exist. And so our strategy has been to

0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>be local for local and we've been developing not only

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 1>the right product but also having the local supply chain

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>that creates resiliency and how are how we're able to

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 1>then you know, be able to support our customers and

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>deliver for our customers. So that with the idea that

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 1>you have multiple sources globally, so as you're going through

0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.680
<v Speaker 1>some of this disruption, you've got a supply chain that

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>has multiple sources, so you can source from multiple multiple locations. Um,

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 1>all of that comes together into having a supply chain

0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 1>that's much more resilient. George, I'm really intrigued when you

0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>said you're seeing improvement in the supply chain where specifically

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 1>are you seeing that and you're seeing improvement when it

0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:23.800
<v Speaker 1>comes to commodities as well as it chips? Is it like?

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 1>What is it? It's been When we look at the

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 1>work that we've done to strategize our semiconductors and chips

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 1>were making good progress there across the globe. UM. A

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of our supply chain challenge was in North America.

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>When we look at our supply chain, we have multi

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.960
<v Speaker 1>tiered suppliers and a lot of the challenges that we

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 1>had with the disruptions from from COVID shutdowns and then

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 1>some of the labor challenges UM not necessarily within our facilities,

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 1>but within our suppliers that UM and so we've worked

0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 1>very closely with them and being able to address their

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 1>their labor challenges ultimately getting the supply chain back operating.

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 1>So it's really looking at all levels of the supply

0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>chain UM as well as all when you look at

0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>the global footprint, all regions, and we've been making part

0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty much across the board. Georgia, are you expecting a

0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 1>recession movie later this year or maybe next year? Are you?

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Are you when you gather your management team, do you say, guys,

0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>this is what you know? We need to have the

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 1>playbook ready for well, you can go back with the pandemic,

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think we we we demonstrated this very well.

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.720
<v Speaker 1>We've been creating a lot of agility with how we

0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 1>operate as a company, and we've had an incredible opportunity

0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 1>with the work that we do within buildings and infrastructure

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:40.480
<v Speaker 1>to respond to these crisis like for instance, a good

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>example is in the early days of the pandemic, we

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 1>support critical infrastructure, which is healthcare, and we were on

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.160
<v Speaker 1>the front lines building hospitals in a matter of days

0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.960
<v Speaker 1>that had the highest air quality and ultimately the resource

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>that they needed to be able to attend to those infected.

0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 1>And so we've we've built you know, we've been very

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.840
<v Speaker 1>agile with what we do, not only responding to the

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>new demands and the crisis, but also agility relative to

0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:11.240
<v Speaker 1>understanding a little bit of what's gonna potentially happening and

0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.800
<v Speaker 1>make sure that we're always positioned to be able to

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.440
<v Speaker 1>deliver for our customers, be able to solve their biggest problems,

0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.880
<v Speaker 1>and then ultimately make sure that we're taken into account

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:24.360
<v Speaker 1>what we see happening on the horizon. So being agile

0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 1>in case of whatever comes your way, So could be

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 1>a recession could not? Is that Is that fair to say? Yeah?

0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.479
<v Speaker 1>Like I said, right, our focus right now is delivering

0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.239
<v Speaker 1>on the backlog and delivering for our customers given what

0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:41.520
<v Speaker 1>we've seen here over the last about eighteen twenty four months. Obviously,

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:45.399
<v Speaker 1>I think the demand that we see now solving the

0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:49.199
<v Speaker 1>biggest problems within buildings, which is indoor ere quality, making

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:52.880
<v Speaker 1>making them much healthier and safer, and then also being

0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:57.159
<v Speaker 1>able to address the global carbon footprint that domain is

0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>going to continue because the commitments have been made and

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.440
<v Speaker 1>I'll really our customers have to deliver on those commitments.

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.800
<v Speaker 1>So we're working closely to make sure we understand how

0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:09.160
<v Speaker 1>that plays out and how we're positioned to support our customers.

0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:11.880
<v Speaker 1>At the same time that we're taking into account making

0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 1>sure that we're we're gonna be agile with any downturn

0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>that might might occur in some of the key markets

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.320
<v Speaker 1>that we operated. But you know what I would, it's

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:22.760
<v Speaker 1>really all about making sure that we're not only supporting

0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 1>the customer with the demand that we have today in

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.760
<v Speaker 1>the backlog, but at the same time taken into account

0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:30.199
<v Speaker 1>the factors that we see that potentially could impact US

0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:33.200
<v Speaker 1>longer term. George, thank you so much for your time today.

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.840
<v Speaker 1>I really appreciate it. George Oliver. He is chairman and

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>chief executive officer Johnson Controls. Joining us via zoom from Milwaukee.

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:44.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We did hear

0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:49.960
<v Speaker 1>David West and talk about this in his conversation with

0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.199
<v Speaker 1>Black Rocks Larry Fink about Getcha Banks and battle d

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:56.280
<v Speaker 1>the US group, the CEO resigning hours after police raid

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.720
<v Speaker 1>at the asset manager, the culmination of months of controversy

0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:01.880
<v Speaker 1>surrounding the executive. But it really Lee was about allegations

0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:05.600
<v Speaker 1>um by the company's former chief sustainable ability officer at

0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:07.919
<v Speaker 1>the company inflated its E s G credentials. You and

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>I talk a lot coming off of milk in so

0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>much E s G conversation that it does feel like

0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:15.240
<v Speaker 1>that space is going through a reckoning. Yeah, and interestingly enough,

0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.560
<v Speaker 1>Larry Fink said that Black Rock doesn't want to be

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.399
<v Speaker 1>the quote environmental police. We've got a great voice on this.

0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>Garvin J. Bush is the co founder and chief investment

0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 1>officer at Green Alpha Advisors. It's based in Boulder, Colorado.

0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:31.920
<v Speaker 1>But we got j with us right now. Uh excuse me, Garvin,

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:33.480
<v Speaker 1>We've got you with with us right now. How are you.

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:35.440
<v Speaker 1>It's good to day. That would be actually kind of cool.

0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.320
<v Speaker 1>I was looking at Ja, I was looking right up

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:40.639
<v Speaker 1>at the J Bush. It's good to help you with us,

0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:41.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's good to have you with us in the

0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.360
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. It's been it's been years since

0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.000
<v Speaker 1>you've been back in the studios, three years. Carol just

0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.359
<v Speaker 1>looked it up and it's great to be back. Thanks

0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:50.760
<v Speaker 1>for having me and you guys. Well, how is the

0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 1>conversation around E s G shifted? Because I think Carol

0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:54.879
<v Speaker 1>makes a really good point. There's we're sort of seeing

0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 1>this backlash right now. It's interesting. I think if cynically,

0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:01.320
<v Speaker 1>I might say, it's interesting to me that E s

0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.119
<v Speaker 1>G has finally achieved enough success that it's getting pushed

0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:07.040
<v Speaker 1>back from the more incumbent part of the industry. A

0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:11.960
<v Speaker 1>little less cynically, I might say that while of course

0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:15.800
<v Speaker 1>everyone has their first memory to criticize whatever they want,

0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:19.679
<v Speaker 1>equally we all can invest by whatever criteria we want, right.

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:22.280
<v Speaker 1>That's how markets are. That's how they work. So that

0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>could be I don't know, value or growth or momentum,

0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:27.480
<v Speaker 1>or it could be thematic right, including E s G.

0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:30.639
<v Speaker 1>And over time the markets reward the best ideas and

0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:32.440
<v Speaker 1>the things that grow the most and compound the most

0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>and have the most intrinsic value. So this isn't going

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.639
<v Speaker 1>to be one or lost by rhetoric. But in the

0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.080
<v Speaker 1>end the markets will will bear. WHOA wait a minute.

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.359
<v Speaker 1>So I'm just thinking if I'm going to commit money

0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:44.879
<v Speaker 1>to E s G like I expect it to, like

0:20:44.960 --> 0:20:48.080
<v Speaker 1>you guys are all about companies whose products and services

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 1>address the global economy's greatest system level risks. You know,

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 1>I want my money potentially in an area that is

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 1>not going to impact negatively the environment or something, you know.

0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:00.440
<v Speaker 1>So I do wonder to some ex and if you're

0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:03.520
<v Speaker 1>selling something that it's going to do something, doesn't it

0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 1>have to do that? I would argue very much that

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 1>it does. And in fact, that Green Alpha we don't

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:11.879
<v Speaker 1>brand as e SCH for that reason. It's jone. I

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:13.680
<v Speaker 1>was going through your website. My god, I don't see

0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.159
<v Speaker 1>that anywhere. Yeah, thanks for noticing that. Yeah, yeah, no,

0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:19.960
<v Speaker 1>we we want to go right after the actual solutions

0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:22.439
<v Speaker 1>to our to our most key system level risks that

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>actually have the ability and our threatening to undermine the

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 1>global economy and therefore undermine our our the reason we

0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:30.919
<v Speaker 1>invest right growth of assets. So what are the biggest

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.720
<v Speaker 1>risks scarving? So we define those as the climate crisis,

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:37.600
<v Speaker 1>resource recradition, farmland, top soil, water, those kind of things.

0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Human disease burden. Uh, that could be pandemics, cancers, diabetes,

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:45.359
<v Speaker 1>what have you. So anything that that that lowers the

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:47.600
<v Speaker 1>overall total risk of the global economy is something we're

0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 1>interested in. If you're raising the risk to us, all

0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:52.440
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna pass. It's not quite s G. But is

0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 1>the alpha there? And has the alpha been there? Because

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:57.920
<v Speaker 1>look at what we're seeing with markets this year, best

0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:02.640
<v Speaker 1>performer in the energy, best performer in the SP five

0:22:02.720 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>hundred energy. If you're not invested in energy right now,

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:07.280
<v Speaker 1>you're feeling a lot of pain. Yeah, and how about

0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:11.600
<v Speaker 1>defense also doing quite well? Right? Well? So that is

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.400
<v Speaker 1>that is a good point. And I can point to

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:17.199
<v Speaker 1>the mutual fund that I manage any xt X not

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:20.200
<v Speaker 1>to plug it, but uh, since it's about nine and

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:22.360
<v Speaker 1>a half years old, it's got a comfortable four dred

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:26.879
<v Speaker 1>something annual average basis point lead over sp X. That said,

0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 1>it's much more volatile than sp X. Right, It's it's

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:32.600
<v Speaker 1>up more on bull markets, it's down a little bit

0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:35.720
<v Speaker 1>more in bear markets. Overall, that's pretty handy track record

0:22:35.720 --> 0:22:41.400
<v Speaker 1>about performance, and yet it's uncorrelated. So our thesis overall

0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:44.720
<v Speaker 1>says that volatility and structural risk are not the same thing,

0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:47.600
<v Speaker 1>and we'd much rather invest to mitigate structural risk than

0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:50.040
<v Speaker 1>short term volatility. So we think of ourselves as a

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:52.880
<v Speaker 1>long term strategy, like for us, five years of short term.

0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:55.400
<v Speaker 1>So when you drilled down a little bit, because I'm

0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:57.600
<v Speaker 1>always interested in the in the specific companies and kind

0:22:57.640 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>of ideas that you're thinking about, So tell us where

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:05.240
<v Speaker 1>you go, right, So, mitigating those system level risks we discussed,

0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:07.520
<v Speaker 1>I guess I'll just start with health human disease burden.

0:23:07.920 --> 0:23:12.200
<v Speaker 1>We really love like no Go because I was a maderna.

0:23:12.240 --> 0:23:15.120
<v Speaker 1>What a father? Yeah, yeah, we do have maderna. We've

0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 1>had it since before the pandemic. We caught it very early,

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 1>which was nice for you know, but it was because

0:23:20.400 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 1>thesis it was what owns a bunch of I p

0:23:23.520 --> 0:23:26.640
<v Speaker 1>around something that is transformative, step change, way of doing things.

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 1>So not a big farmer that's going to tweak small

0:23:28.520 --> 0:23:31.520
<v Speaker 1>molecules a little bit. But what's cracking you know, evolution

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:34.520
<v Speaker 1>the messenger to RNA messenger RNA before anyone knew what

0:23:34.640 --> 0:23:37.920
<v Speaker 1>m RNA was. Yeah, So bion tech and and Maderna

0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 1>both on that basis were in our strategies. But then

0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:44.359
<v Speaker 1>elsewhere things that are doing things that are addressing cancer

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:46.040
<v Speaker 1>in a way that could be a one and done treatment.

0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 1>So christper therapeutics, editas medicine, ARCHI tourists, Bean therapeutics, the

0:23:50.760 --> 0:23:53.159
<v Speaker 1>guys that own the real I P around how do

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:55.359
<v Speaker 1>use gene editing to just fix human disease? So what

0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:56.680
<v Speaker 1>do you think of someone like and we just got

0:23:56.680 --> 0:23:59.240
<v Speaker 1>about forty seconds a Kathy would who does think in

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.280
<v Speaker 1>a different way. And I feel like she's become a target.

0:24:02.400 --> 0:24:04.280
<v Speaker 1>I know, I I've talked to her a lot. We've

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:06.199
<v Speaker 1>talked to her a lot. I mean in terms of

0:24:06.200 --> 0:24:08.879
<v Speaker 1>her think, it doesn't sound like it's that dissimilar to

0:24:09.040 --> 0:24:13.240
<v Speaker 1>some extent, And just got about sure kathy strategies and ours.

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:15.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, I've co presented on a panel with her

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:16.920
<v Speaker 1>once or twice. We've compared notes a little bit. I

0:24:16.960 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't say, I know her. Um, we're similar in that

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:22.240
<v Speaker 1>we both value innovation. We both very much value important

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 1>intellectual property estates. Where we differ is arc and I

0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>hope I'm not out of term, but it seems to

0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:30.800
<v Speaker 1>value innovation for its own sake. Green Alpha values innovation

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:33.439
<v Speaker 1>in the service of solving a system level risk. So

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:36.680
<v Speaker 1>there's a key difference as well. Really fascinating. Uh, now

0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:39.400
<v Speaker 1>that we've reconnected, come back soon so we can continue

0:24:39.400 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 1>this conversation, all right for well. Garvin J. Bush, she's

0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 1>co founder chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisers, based

0:24:45.240 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>in Boulder, made his way to New York City on

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:55.480
<v Speaker 1>this Thursday. This is bloom Park a journal. Yeah, but

0:24:55.560 --> 0:25:00.399
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no no, all right, please,

0:25:00.480 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. It's good question. Drive. This is

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the drive to the clothes on Bloomberg Radio. You are

0:25:18.040 --> 0:25:21.440
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week Karl Masser along with Tim's Stanovic.

0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 1>It's almost time for the banana break, isn't it. Yeah,

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:26.040
<v Speaker 1>we do a little banana break. It's just after eleven.

0:25:26.400 --> 0:25:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Get a little hungry right here for three hours? Yeah,

0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:31.320
<v Speaker 1>I get some food. I got a little grumbles in

0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:35.280
<v Speaker 1>my tummy. Meantime on Wall Street. As Doug mentioned, we've

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:37.439
<v Speaker 1>got a rally underway, bouncing off those loads of the day.

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 1>Quite a swing. I was just looking at the one

0:25:39.640 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred up two and a half percent, it's high down

0:25:42.000 --> 0:25:43.760
<v Speaker 1>eight tens of a percent, it's low. So what a

0:25:43.800 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 1>three and a half or three point three percent swing

0:25:45.920 --> 0:25:48.080
<v Speaker 1>from high to low? Yeah, that's quite the swing. Let's

0:25:48.359 --> 0:25:50.560
<v Speaker 1>hear from Liz Young, the head of investment strategy. It's

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:52.640
<v Speaker 1>so far. Liz joining us this afternoon on the phone

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:55.960
<v Speaker 1>from New York City. Liz, how are you? I am good.

0:25:56.000 --> 0:25:58.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm delighted to be here, especially on a rally day.

0:25:59.200 --> 0:26:01.720
<v Speaker 1>You can sam bana a day. Every day has been

0:26:01.800 --> 0:26:04.480
<v Speaker 1>in a day. We're delighted to have you back with us, Liz.

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, how how should investors look at this rally

0:26:07.000 --> 0:26:09.840
<v Speaker 1>that we're seeing because it does snap a two day

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:11.920
<v Speaker 1>It would have been a three day losing streak if

0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:15.480
<v Speaker 1>lows would have held for the day. Um, did we

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:19.399
<v Speaker 1>hit the bottom last week? Oh? Tim, Tim, Tim, come on,

0:26:19.400 --> 0:26:24.080
<v Speaker 1>go ahead, like Tim, Tim? Tim insert grown here? Hey.

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:27.600
<v Speaker 1>People want to know if that was the bottom? I know,

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:29.080
<v Speaker 1>and I hate to let them down. I'm not going

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:31.919
<v Speaker 1>to try to call it. I don't think anybody should. Frankly,

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:33.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's a useful thing to try to

0:26:33.640 --> 0:26:38.359
<v Speaker 1>figure out, especially because even though at some point in

0:26:38.400 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>the future we will look back and find a day

0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:42.440
<v Speaker 1>where we say, oh, that was the low right, that's

0:26:42.440 --> 0:26:46.160
<v Speaker 1>where we hit that low point, this entire process right

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:48.919
<v Speaker 1>now is a is a bottoming range, right, and I

0:26:48.960 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 1>think that we're going to be in it for a

0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:54.600
<v Speaker 1>little while still. So the original question was how should

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:56.399
<v Speaker 1>we look at this rally. I don't think that we

0:26:56.440 --> 0:27:01.320
<v Speaker 1>can declare premature victory. We don't have really any new information. Now.

0:27:01.359 --> 0:27:04.399
<v Speaker 1>What I will say is after going through a really

0:27:04.440 --> 0:27:08.480
<v Speaker 1>tumultuous April and then going through May, where at one

0:27:08.480 --> 0:27:11.639
<v Speaker 1>point we had swung twelve full percentage points, you know,

0:27:11.720 --> 0:27:14.280
<v Speaker 1>from bottom point to top point. I mean, that is

0:27:14.320 --> 0:27:16.879
<v Speaker 1>a huge swing in one month's time. But if you

0:27:16.880 --> 0:27:19.400
<v Speaker 1>would have fallen asleep April thirt and woken up May

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:22.480
<v Speaker 1>thirty one, it says if nothing happened at all. So

0:27:22.560 --> 0:27:25.440
<v Speaker 1>I think investors are a little bit battered right now,

0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:28.600
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of the whip lash that has occurred

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:32.120
<v Speaker 1>in the market could still keep occurring. Through the first

0:27:32.200 --> 0:27:34.679
<v Speaker 1>part of June, maybe even all of June, until we

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:36.879
<v Speaker 1>have a little bit more information from the FED and

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:40.000
<v Speaker 1>we get through at least another hike. I actually think

0:27:40.040 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 1>we need to get through two more hikes before we

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.400
<v Speaker 1>start to be able to look into the future and say, Okay,

0:27:45.480 --> 0:27:47.720
<v Speaker 1>I feel like I know more about where things are going. Yeah,

0:27:47.720 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like we're gonna have to let the

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:50.400
<v Speaker 1>FED do its thing for a little bit and then

0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:52.840
<v Speaker 1>settle and see how it plays out. Right, because as

0:27:52.880 --> 0:27:55.119
<v Speaker 1>FED interest rate hikes, you know, we talked about with

0:27:55.119 --> 0:27:58.320
<v Speaker 1>our Michael McKee, who follows the FED and the international economy,

0:27:58.359 --> 0:28:01.640
<v Speaker 1>and said, you know, FED moved moves, you know, impact

0:28:01.640 --> 0:28:04.880
<v Speaker 1>things like auto sales and home sales. They're most sensitive,

0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:07.280
<v Speaker 1>and we saw that already play out. We've seen obviously

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:09.000
<v Speaker 1>some weakness in both of those sector, but the rest

0:28:09.000 --> 0:28:11.880
<v Speaker 1>of it's going to take some time. Having said that,

0:28:12.359 --> 0:28:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Larry Fink of Blackrock on with our David Weston just

0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:18.320
<v Speaker 1>about an hour or so ago, saying that the FED

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:21.200
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have the tools to fix the supply problems or

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>fix the COVID lockdowns, and that's what creates the inflationary pressure.

0:28:25.520 --> 0:28:28.920
<v Speaker 1>So how do you think about that, and then ultimately,

0:28:28.960 --> 0:28:31.439
<v Speaker 1>as the FETE is raising rates, impact that will have

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:35.240
<v Speaker 1>on asset values, particularly the equity trade. Yeah, well, first

0:28:35.280 --> 0:28:37.000
<v Speaker 1>of all, I love David Weston, so I love that

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:39.360
<v Speaker 1>we just got to all do. It's a little bit

0:28:39.360 --> 0:28:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of a fan club over here. Is so great, very

0:28:42.120 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 1>smart and thoughtful in his questioning. Look, the comments are

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:49.400
<v Speaker 1>correct that the FED can't fix the supply problem, and

0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:53.880
<v Speaker 1>the comments are also correct, however, that they can affect demand.

0:28:54.040 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 1>And inflation is a two pronged beast. So the more

0:28:57.240 --> 0:28:59.840
<v Speaker 1>demand there is, and if we have a constraints supply,

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:03.360
<v Speaker 1>that's what causes inflation. A very simple definition of inflation

0:29:03.960 --> 0:29:07.720
<v Speaker 1>is more money chasing fewer goods. So we're correct that

0:29:07.800 --> 0:29:10.600
<v Speaker 1>they cannot fix the fewer goods problem, but they can

0:29:10.640 --> 0:29:14.000
<v Speaker 1>fix them more money problem, right, and we have officially

0:29:14.080 --> 0:29:18.560
<v Speaker 1>started quantitative tightening. Rate hikes do affect autos, they do

0:29:18.680 --> 0:29:22.280
<v Speaker 1>affect the housing market, but that's on purpose. And if

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>you think about what's been driving inflation, used cars and

0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:28.720
<v Speaker 1>trucks were a huge driver of inflation for a long time,

0:29:29.120 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 1>and we want to see that rollover. The housing market

0:29:31.920 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit more difficult to measure in our

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:37.880
<v Speaker 1>traditional inflation indicators. But we have started to see some

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 1>softness in the housing market too, and I think that

0:29:40.320 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>also needed to happen. That's something that is pinching consumers.

0:29:44.640 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 1>And think there's been a huge growth obviously in mortgages

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:52.880
<v Speaker 1>and then home prices have hit just astronomical highs, So

0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 1>we did need to see or at least start to

0:29:55.440 --> 0:29:58.680
<v Speaker 1>see a rollover in those particular spots. I think the

0:29:58.760 --> 0:30:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Fed stays on this half though, for a while, because

0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:05.160
<v Speaker 1>they don't have any reason to stop yet. They obviously

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:09.320
<v Speaker 1>are not going to be awarded by equity returns being negative.

0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:10.840
<v Speaker 1>They if that was going to happen, they would have

0:30:10.880 --> 0:30:14.400
<v Speaker 1>already done it right. So they've still got a tremendously

0:30:14.480 --> 0:30:16.800
<v Speaker 1>tight labor market and that's probably going to take a

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:19.959
<v Speaker 1>while still to crack. They still have an economy that,

0:30:20.400 --> 0:30:23.200
<v Speaker 1>as far as anybody can tell on things like p

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:27.720
<v Speaker 1>m I and manufacturing activity, retail sales is still pretty strong,

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.600
<v Speaker 1>and a consumer that's still spending. So there needs to

0:30:30.600 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>be more cracks in the pavement. I think they will come,

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:35.000
<v Speaker 1>but there need to be more before the said relax.

0:30:35.080 --> 0:30:36.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's funny that you see pm I because

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:37.959
<v Speaker 1>I was just looking at our markets live blog and

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:40.520
<v Speaker 1>it says none of historical conditions are meant for stocks

0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:43.040
<v Speaker 1>to bottom, and I do wonder. And they talked about specifically,

0:30:43.840 --> 0:30:46.080
<v Speaker 1>um about the I S M P m I markets

0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:48.760
<v Speaker 1>bottoming about two months before the I S i'm pm

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:52.000
<v Speaker 1>I manufacturing index stop falling. This is something that we've

0:30:52.040 --> 0:30:54.720
<v Speaker 1>seen historically, and saying the average pm I reading at

0:30:54.720 --> 0:30:57.280
<v Speaker 1>the stock bottom is forty eight compared with fifty six,

0:30:57.320 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 1>which is what we see today. You know, I love

0:30:59.840 --> 0:31:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the research you sent over. You look at a lot

0:31:01.560 --> 0:31:04.120
<v Speaker 1>of different metrics. What's the metric on your radar to

0:31:04.160 --> 0:31:08.520
<v Speaker 1>really understand maybe when we have reached bottom? Yeah, So

0:31:08.600 --> 0:31:10.640
<v Speaker 1>I actually I tried to take a little more positive

0:31:10.680 --> 0:31:13.160
<v Speaker 1>spin on it. Instead of saying, let's call the bottom.

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I took an aspect of when can I feel more

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:18.680
<v Speaker 1>confident in one of these rallies. We keep talking about

0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 1>bear market rallies, right, and we've really only had three

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 1>periods this year where we've had a rally that's lasted

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:27.000
<v Speaker 1>longer than three consecutive days, which is pretty sad. This

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:29.560
<v Speaker 1>is a tough start to the year. But when can

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:32.760
<v Speaker 1>we start to feel more confident? It's things like the

0:31:32.800 --> 0:31:36.200
<v Speaker 1>market broadening out, so market breadth and the way that

0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:38.240
<v Speaker 1>you can measure that. There's a number of different ways

0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 1>you can measure that, but the ones that I looked

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 1>at were things like how are the different industries performing

0:31:44.080 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 1>in those rallies. So of the first couple rallies that

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:50.560
<v Speaker 1>we had, EXAC did the best, the SMP market cap

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:53.320
<v Speaker 1>weighted index did the best, and the equal weighted index

0:31:53.440 --> 0:31:56.800
<v Speaker 1>didn't do quite as well. In this last one, all

0:31:56.800 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 1>three of those industries did exactly the same, which tell

0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:03.000
<v Speaker 1>me that there are other sectors besides tech that are

0:32:03.000 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>starting to show strength or catch a bid however you

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:08.080
<v Speaker 1>want to say it. And there are smaller stocks that

0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 1>are catching a bid, and that's definitely a good thing

0:32:10.280 --> 0:32:12.040
<v Speaker 1>to see. Well, that's good to know, and we talk

0:32:12.080 --> 0:32:14.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot about that small cap space in particular. Hey, Liz,

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>always fun, always thoughtful, and informative. Liz Young, head of

0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:20.960
<v Speaker 1>investment strategy at SOFI Technologies, on the phone from New

0:32:21.040 --> 0:32:23.280
<v Speaker 1>York City, a member of the David Weston fan Club.

0:32:23.320 --> 0:32:24.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm just going to say, along with the rest of us,