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Speaker 1: Good Sunday morning, everybody. How are you welcome into a

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Speaker 1: Sunday episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt and welcome to New England, where

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Speaker 1: there is plenty of snow and it's plenty of cold

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Speaker 1: here in this part of the country. Now we have

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Speaker 1: the live stream coming at you with Andrew Erickson and

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Speaker 1: myself at noon Eastern time, so stay tuned for that.

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Speaker 1: I do apologize if you're watching on the YouTube channel,

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Speaker 1: you guys are seeing a bit of the hostage video

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Speaker 1: take on this. But just the way things go right

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Speaker 1: when you travel, you got to put yourself in a

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Speaker 1: different position. So this is where we're going to be

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Speaker 1: doing some content for the next couple of days here

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Speaker 1: while I'm in New Hampshire. But yesterday not great two

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Speaker 1: and three day. A down day yesterday thanks to what

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Speaker 1: happened with the Packers. The hard rock bet of the

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Speaker 1: day misses and that causes a losing day for US

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Speaker 1: down two point sorry a two and three day down

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Speaker 1: one point one units. We do get the Texans on

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Speaker 1: the money line at plus one ten, so that made

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Speaker 1: up for it a little bit. Derrek Henry ran wild

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Speaker 1: on the Packers and so he went over that, you know,

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Speaker 1: just with the rushing alone. He went over eighty three

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Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards there, and he had receiving

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Speaker 1: obviously as well. So those two cash we did not

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Speaker 1: get the first half under that game flew over, which

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Speaker 1: was somewhat of a surprise given what we had seen

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Speaker 1: recently with the Packers and the Ravens offenses. But that

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Speaker 1: the late game wasn't great one in two on the

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Speaker 1: late game one in one, the over hit for the

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Speaker 1: did not hit for the Chargers and the Texans. Chargers

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Speaker 1: had numerous opportunities to score a ton more points in

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Speaker 1: the game, but they simply their offenses simply couldn't get

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Speaker 1: it done. So can they beat the Broncos next weekend?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. And if they can't beat the

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Speaker 1: Broncos and the Patriots can't get the number one seed,

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Speaker 1: So looking like the Patriots are going to be playing

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Speaker 1: on wild Card weekend and they'll get the two seed.

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Speaker 1: They do play here today. Okay, before I give you

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Speaker 1: a hard rock bed of the day and we give

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Speaker 1: you the card for today, let's just talk about weather

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Speaker 1: around the country, and we will focus on this a

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Speaker 1: lot here with Andrew Erickson and myself. Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: It looks like there's going to be a windy day

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Speaker 1: in Cleveland, which is typical for December. In January, some

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Speaker 1: spotty showers, not snow. The temperature won't be a problem

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Speaker 1: in Cleveland, but definitely some win to watch out for.

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Speaker 1: That total is historically low at thirty four thirty four

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Speaker 1: and a half thirty five, and I think the only

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Speaker 1: way to play that game would be the under, but

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Speaker 1: that's just too low given the offenses and the defenses

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Speaker 1: for that matter. That's a really low total. The Saints

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Speaker 1: are on the road against Tennessee. It looks like that

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Speaker 1: game may be a wind fest. If you're looking for

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Speaker 1: an under that could be affected by the wind, it

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Speaker 1: would be Tennessee against the Saints, a Dome team going indoors. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: don't keep going outdoors into the wind. Probably not great,

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Speaker 1: but it's not going to be that big. I mean again,

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Speaker 1: we're looking for sustained wins at fifth dean miles per

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Speaker 1: hour and potentially going with gusts over thirty and that's something,

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Speaker 1: but it's not huge. Patriots and the Jets. It looks

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Speaker 1: okay for Arizona in Cincinnati. Not that big of a

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Speaker 1: deal from a weather perspective. Buffalo and Philadelphia might be

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Speaker 1: the day of the weather, day of the game or

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Speaker 1: weather game of the day, ridiculous wins. The National Weather

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Speaker 1: Service has issued a floodwatch for the area starting at

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Speaker 1: one pm on Sunday through Monday afternoon. So just give

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Speaker 1: you a kind of idea as to what the weather

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Speaker 1: may look like in Buffalo. It's not going to be great.

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Speaker 1: Both teams can run the football, both teams are outdoor

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Speaker 1: teams and Northeast teams on that with Philadelphia in the Bills,

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Speaker 1: but definitely something to watch for when it comes to that.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about place. It's week seventeen. Okay, this

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Speaker 1: is a difficult week. I'll have prop bets coming at

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Speaker 1: you on the live stream with Andrew Erickson and myself

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Speaker 1: at noon Eastern time right here on the Bidding Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. But I want to start with Seattle. And

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Speaker 1: this is just a play. I told you guys, I

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Speaker 1: was going to play this all week and the number

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved. It's seven. It's even money at most books

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Speaker 1: at the moment, So you guys can go ahead and

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Speaker 1: jump in on that. I mean that that's the one

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Speaker 1: change here from the time I put together the graphic

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Speaker 1: that the juice has moved a little bit here. But

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Speaker 1: this is just riding Mike McDonald on the East Coast

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Speaker 1: against the Panthers team that both teams need this game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's not like this is a not an

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Speaker 1: important game. But you look at Sam Donald as a

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Speaker 1: six point favorite or more, He's been this way twelve times.

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Speaker 1: He's twelve and oh straight up in nine and three

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Speaker 1: against the spread in the last twenty years. Donald's mark

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Speaker 1: of twelve and oh straight up as a six point

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Speaker 1: favorite or more without a loss is the best in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years from any quarterback. The Panthers as

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Speaker 1: a dog, they're better. They're eight and five straight up.

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Speaker 1: They're only they're zero and two. You know when they're favored.

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Speaker 1: But this is a one pm Eastern time window for Seattle.

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Speaker 1: They've won eight straight games in this window. They're seven

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Speaker 1: and oh straight ups in the start of last year

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Speaker 1: and under Mike McDonald, the Seahawks now ten to four

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread on the road, including a

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Speaker 1: six to two in one mark when they're playing on

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Speaker 1: the East Coast. This is a game that Seattle has

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Speaker 1: to have to set up a huge game next week

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Speaker 1: up against the forty nine ers. If they lose this game,

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Speaker 1: things could really go sideways for Seattle. So I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get a very focused, very motivated Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 1: team going after it here today. I'm gonna go ahead

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Speaker 1: and lay the seven points with Seattle. We're going Seattle

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Speaker 1: minus seven for one point one units. Actually you can

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Speaker 1: change that to even money now that's Seattle minus will

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Speaker 1: take the better price. That number has moved since I

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Speaker 1: put this together. Seattle minus seven even money for one unit. Here.

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Speaker 1: Coming up on that second bet of the day, we

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Speaker 1: go to Cincinnati with the Cardinals, a dome team going outside.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned, the weather's not gonna be that big

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Speaker 1: of a deal, but it's still late December in Cleveland

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Speaker 1: in Cincinnati, Ohio, which Jacoby Burssett against Joe Burrow, who

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Speaker 1: was awesome last week. I mean, Joe Burrow was tremendous

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Speaker 1: last week. Jamar Chase was tremendous. They showed they have

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Speaker 1: no intention of slowing down in kind of coasting through

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Speaker 1: this entire season. The Bengals are a team that I

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Speaker 1: think you got to be a little careful of just

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Speaker 1: because of the inconsistencies, and I don't want to get

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Speaker 1: back doored here by Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. I

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Speaker 1: think as possible with this number of being as high

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Speaker 1: as it is with seven. However, in the first half,

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals on the road have been bad, and Brissette's

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Speaker 1: last three road starts Arizona has been outscored seventy one

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Speaker 1: seventeen in the first half, going zero to three against

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Speaker 1: the spread. I think that's what we can look at here.

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Speaker 1: I think the first half spread is a better way

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Speaker 1: of approaching this where we have a Cardinal team that

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Speaker 1: may need to get some some time to acclimate to

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Speaker 1: the weather. I think the Bengals offense will click in

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Speaker 1: the first half after what happened last week. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure about the second half, so I don't want to

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Speaker 1: see this being a late drive. Joe Burrow as a

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Speaker 1: seven point favorite or more has not been good. He's

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Speaker 1: closed as laying seven points twelve times as a starter,

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Speaker 1: He's just four and eight ats in those games. Now

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Speaker 1: he's seven and five straight up. That's not what you want.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you don't want to be losing five games

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Speaker 1: when you're favored by seven points or more. That's not good.

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Speaker 1: So I don't want to deal with the second half year. Instead,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna focus on the first half. And we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go Bengals laying four in the first half to take

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Speaker 1: care of business here today and get a win early,

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Speaker 1: get out to a fast start against a team and

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals that may take some time to adjust. And again,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to get have a backdoor situation involving

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals with potentially, you know, a last second field

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Speaker 1: goal or something in the second half. So Bengals minus

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Speaker 1: four today, Teaser of the day. These are the plays

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Speaker 1: in which you can start to stack. Because Indianapolis has

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Speaker 1: been eliminated, the Colts are not going to be in

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Speaker 1: the postseason, and so when you look at where we

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Speaker 1: are from an NFL standpoint, the Jaguars need this game badly.

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Speaker 1: The Jaguars have clinched a playoff spot, but after what

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Speaker 1: the Texans did yesterday, they're eleven and five. If we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about it a facto championship game next week,

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars have to win this game. Now, the Jags

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Speaker 1: have been red hot. They've won six games in a row.

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Speaker 1: They've scored thirty four, forty eight, and thirty six points

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Speaker 1: their last three times. They just beat the Colts at

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Speaker 1: home thirty six to nineteen. Rather than get involved with

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Speaker 1: the Colts maybe trying to play spoiler here, I think

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Speaker 1: the better play and Philip Rivers and whatnot, and the

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Speaker 1: better play just to go ahead and tease this down

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Speaker 1: from five and a half to a half a point

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Speaker 1: essentially Jaguars money line to come in here, and look,

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Speaker 1: we may not need it. You can just bet the

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Speaker 1: Jags straight if you want. If you don't want to

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Speaker 1: tease this, just take Jacksonville and not worry about the

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Speaker 1: teaser number, because I do think the Jaguars continue this

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Speaker 1: run here where they are. They've been dominant at home.

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis is two seven and one against the spread against

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars since twenty fifteen. Ridiculous Indy since twenty fifteen

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Speaker 1: up against Jacksonville, they are three seventeen and one ats

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Speaker 1: against the Jags. This is just kryptonite Jacksonville with the

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Speaker 1: way they're playing, and in fact, the Colts have been eliminated.

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Speaker 1: I think the Jags tease it down money line Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: to win, and on the other side, same thought, it's

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and the Dolphins. The Bucks have fallen apart.

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Speaker 1: They have to win this game. I mean, they have

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Speaker 1: to win this game. The Bucks will lose. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: I think the Bucks lose to Seattle, that sets up

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Speaker 1: a de facto NFC South Championship game next week. So

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Speaker 1: I just need the Bucks to win this game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't need them to cover this number. Just go

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Speaker 1: and win this game outright. So I'm taking them from

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Speaker 1: five and a half or six down to a pick

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Speaker 1: as well. I mean, the Bucks need to turn this around.

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Speaker 1: The Bucks have There's some trends that go into this.

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Speaker 1: Since two thousand and nine, eight teams have been listed

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Speaker 1: as a favorite after losing three straight games against divisional opponents,

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Speaker 1: and those teams have gone eight to ohero straight up

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Speaker 1: at eight, you know, against the spread. So maybe a

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Speaker 1: chance you this bet Tampa as well. If you want

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Speaker 1: to just lay the points with Tampa, you can go

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Speaker 1: ahead and do that. But I'm going to come in

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Speaker 1: here and just tease it. Jaguars plus half a point,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus half a point essentially money line, money

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Speaker 1: line for Jags and the Bucks, and don't worry about

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Speaker 1: what's happening here. Tease it down for one point two

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Speaker 1: five units. That takes us to our hard Rock Bet

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Speaker 1: of the Day hard Rock Bet. We missed this yesterday.

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Speaker 1: We're now eight and five on the year for the

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Speaker 1: hard rock Bet of the Day. Hard Rock Bet Florida

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Speaker 1: sportsbook and the official partner of your favorite Florida teams

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Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, the Bucks, the Heat, the Magic and

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. We're back in both the Jags and the

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Speaker 1: Bucks today it's week seventeen. Weve got tons of playoff

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Speaker 1: spots on the line here. You can build same game

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Speaker 1: So what are we doing for the hard Rock bet

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Speaker 1: of the day. I Am going to Sunday Night Football

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Speaker 1: for the forty nine Ers up against the Bears. The

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Speaker 1: Bears have already clinched the North. Okay, this was going

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Speaker 1: to be a tough task anyway for Chicago to go

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Speaker 1: on the West Coast to play a San Francisco team

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Speaker 1: that absolutely has to have this game to set up

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Speaker 1: a huge game next week against Seattle that could wind

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Speaker 1: up giving the forty nine Ers the number one seed

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Speaker 1: over all and cash that bet we have on the

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Speaker 1: Niners to win the NFC West Brock Party since he's

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Speaker 1: come back five and oh against the spread five and

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Speaker 1: oh straight up and they've won by double digits in

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Speaker 1: every game. The hottest team in the NFL right now

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Speaker 1: are the forty nine Ers. This has been a very

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Speaker 1: impressive run here and for the Bears, even on extended rest,

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Speaker 1: this has been a bad spot for the Bears here.

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Speaker 1: I mean when you talk about teams, when a team

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Speaker 1: is a underdog on the road with more prep than

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Speaker 1: the opponent, twelve thirty nine to one straight up, twenty

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Speaker 1: three and twenty nine ats not good. Brock Purty has

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Speaker 1: started ten games in his career where he's been on

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Speaker 1: short rest. After the Niners faced the Colts on Monday night,

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Speaker 1: Purty is seven and three ats in those games. Very impressive.

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Speaker 1: And the West Coast hasn't been a good spot for

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Speaker 1: the Bears. They did beat the Raiders on the West

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Speaker 1: Coast this year, but that's you know, that's the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Not that big of a deal. I think the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers get after it and they win big Kayleb

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Speaker 1: Williams is ower and four straight up at night in

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Speaker 1: primetime if they started his career, so our own forties

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Speaker 1: one is last two in primetime. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: this is a great spot. I know Ben Johnson has

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Speaker 1: been very profitable to back as a head coach here.

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Speaker 1: But they don't need this. The Bears have clinched the division.

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Speaker 1: The Bears, I think even the litup just a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I would have faded them anyway in this game, but

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Speaker 1: this is a playoff matchup, an NFC championship matchup. You know.

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Speaker 1: The Bears are seven and three against the NFC. The

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Speaker 1: forty nine Ers are eight and two against the NFC,

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Speaker 1: So this game matters for conference opponents, and we're getting

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Speaker 1: into Tiberger situations. I'm coming in taking the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: I'll lead to three and a half even forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers minus three and a half at minus one ten

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Speaker 1: for one point one units. That is the hard rock

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Speaker 1: bet of the day, eight and five record event so

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Speaker 1: far for us. On that we are live at noon

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Speaker 1: Eastern time. I will talk to you later on today

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Speaker 1: myself and Andrew Erickson. I'm getting covered for all the

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Speaker 1: games in the NFL picks and props coming at you.

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Speaker 1: Prop bets to be given out during the live stream

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Speaker 1: as well. If you like prop betting, I'll give you

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Speaker 1: three prop bets that I like here for the games today.

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Speaker 1: We'll jump in with that at noon Eastern time on

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel. In the meantime, my name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parolti. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you

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Speaker 1: guys get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice