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Speaker 1: Joining us now and pleased to say, is Glenn Goodman.

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Speaker 1: He is author of the book The Crypto Trader. Glenn

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Speaker 1: good to see you again. Obviously, a lot already has

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Speaker 1: happened in terms of upside for a bitcoin in anticipation

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Speaker 1: of spot ETF approval. So how much is already in

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Speaker 1: the price? How much further do you think this rally

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Speaker 1: could go?

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Speaker 2: Well, your guy James there is on record saying he

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Speaker 2: thinks that there's about a ninety percent chance of approval

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Speaker 2: at least of some of the ETFs. And quite frankly,

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Speaker 2: it's not just him, it's well, I mean, he's done

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Speaker 2: really well, he's come up with a lot of the

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Speaker 2: intelligence on this whole thing, but pretty much everyone is

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Speaker 2: brought into this idea that the ETFs are coming. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, when it comes to it being priced in,

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Speaker 2: I'd say it's pretty fully priced in probably. And when

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Speaker 2: you look actually at the future's funding rates on various

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Speaker 2: crypto exchanges like Binance and so on, you see that

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Speaker 2: those there are quite frothy levels. A lot of people

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Speaker 2: are borrowing a lot of money in order to buy bitcoins,

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Speaker 2: So if it did start falling, you could get that

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Speaker 2: kind of domino effect where accounts start getting liquidated because

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Speaker 2: people have overstretched themselves on the old on the old leverage.

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Speaker 2: So this is what worries me, is that it feels

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Speaker 2: like a bit of a lose lose situation, as in,

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Speaker 2: if you do get ETF approval, then perhaps all of

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Speaker 2: that is already priced in, and if you don't get

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Speaker 2: ETF approval, then who knows?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do you have a sense of how far

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Speaker 3: bitcoin could drop if you don't get that approval. It's

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Speaker 3: worth talking about because it's been like it's been a

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Speaker 3: foregone conclusion by the market standards. But Gary Gensler has

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Speaker 3: not been shy about cracking down on this industry.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. That's the one factor I think that people are

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Speaker 2: forgetting here because we're hearing so many positive signs like

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Speaker 2: Kathy Wood, who you had on just the other day,

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Speaker 2: talking about how they've been sort of on you know,

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Speaker 2: sort of behind closed doors discussions over the holiday period

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Speaker 2: between SEC officials and you know, asking all kinds of

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Speaker 2: technical questions, which makes it sound like they're about to

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Speaker 2: dot the i's and cross the t's. But Gary Chanseler,

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Speaker 2: we know he just he never has any to say

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Speaker 2: about crypto does he, So he is the unknown factor

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Speaker 2: in all this, and frankly, he is the boss. So

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Speaker 2: if he suddenly decides Nope, it's not good enough. We

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Speaker 2: need more things done. We need for example, like the

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Speaker 2: guy from bit go recently said, maybe they will insist

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Speaker 2: on separating custody and exchanges in a very very deliberate way,

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Speaker 2: you know, something like that. That could be all kinds

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Speaker 2: of factors that could just delay this. And if we

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Speaker 2: get the impression from them that the delay is open ended,

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Speaker 2: as opposed to just oh, we just want a few

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Speaker 2: final things done, then it could be really bad. And

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Speaker 2: you asked me for how far the bitcoin price could fall?

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Speaker 2: I mean, we know from past experience when the bitcoin

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Speaker 2: price falls sometimes it really falls in ways that stock

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Speaker 2: markets very very rarely, do you know, absolutely terrifying fools

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Speaker 2: that could wipe out sound awful, and could wipe out,

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Speaker 2: you know, even months of gains. So what I've done,

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you what I'm doing is I'm lightening up

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Speaker 2: a bit. You know, I've been long for quite a

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Speaker 2: while now, following this trend all the way up. I'm

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Speaker 2: lightening up. I'm not selling all my stuff because quite frankly,

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Speaker 2: this is just a theory, and maybe the price will

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Speaker 2: continue rising as more and more people get excited about

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Speaker 2: the ETF approval, assuming it is approved. But you know,

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Speaker 2: just to be on the safe side, I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: thinking the risk reward is not looking so great at

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Speaker 2: this level, so that's why I've lightened up my holdings.

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Speaker 1: Well, Glenn, it's interesting because what you're saying runs counter

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Speaker 1: to what many people are telling us on this program,

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Speaker 1: who are very excited about what a SPOT ETF ultimately

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Speaker 1: could mean. Obviously, when we talk about crypto, most of

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Speaker 1: these tokens don't treat on anything fundamental. They maybe latch

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Speaker 1: onto one narrative, like say a SPOT ETF getting approved.

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Speaker 1: So in the absence of that, what other catalyst do

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Speaker 1: you see for twenty twenty four that could be supportive

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Speaker 1: or not to prices across the board?

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Speaker 2: Well, I should just make the point I'm talking short

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Speaker 2: term timescale here when I talk about lightening up. It's because,

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Speaker 2: as we know, you know, bitcoin can fall like twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent or something and barely break a sweat, you know,

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Speaker 2: and then it could go all the way back up

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Speaker 2: and further. So that's the kind of thing bitcoin does.

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Speaker 2: And because I'd rather not lose twenty five percent or whatever.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm lighting up. But for the long term,

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin EATYF approval is fantastic news. You've talked about it

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Speaker 2: loads on Bloomberg, so I won't bore you too much

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Speaker 2: with it, butter, but you know, you get the idea.

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Speaker 2: It's a fantastic story for the longer term. Now, other

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Speaker 2: drivers for this coming year. Gaming is pretty significant, AI

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Speaker 2: is pretty significant. Decentralized social media is still one to

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Speaker 2: look out for, I think because it feels like the

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Speaker 2: social media space is still trying to find its feet

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Speaker 2: again after the whole kind of Twitter, you know, lots

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Speaker 2: of people hating elon mask setting up threads and blue

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Speaker 2: Sky and all these other platforms. It feels like this

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Speaker 2: could still be space for a really major decentralized, sort

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Speaker 2: of decentralized social media platform. So that's something exciting. There

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Speaker 2: are lots of narratives, so good looking ahead, but frankly,

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Speaker 2: the ETF approval is the best narrative of all.

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Speaker 3: Glenn Goodman, the author of The Crypto Trader, We thank

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Speaker 3: you so much for your time