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Speaker 1: Coronavirus. Hysteria isn't going anywhere. That's just one of my

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Speaker 1: predictions for twenty twenty one that I discuss on the

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Speaker 1: next episode of Rob Smith is Problematic. Why don't I

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Speaker 1: think the hysteria is going anywhere? Because all the power

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Speaker 1: grabs and government control that come along with it have

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Speaker 1: become a new religion for the left. As for politics

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Speaker 1: at Joe Biden presidency and the mainstream media, well, I've

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Speaker 1: got a lot to say about what you can expect

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Tune in and buckle up. Listen

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Speaker 1: to Rob Smith Is Problematic every Tuesday on the iHeartRadio app,

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right,

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Speaker 1: this is new due to the virus. I'm recording from home,

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Speaker 1: so you may notice a difference in audio quality on

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Speaker 1: this episode of New World. I want to leap way

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Speaker 1: out of all the everyday stuff, the petty gossip and

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Speaker 1: whatever it is that people chat about on the various

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Speaker 1: talk shows, and I want to talk about the twenties.

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Speaker 1: You know, when I was the twenties of course referred

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Speaker 1: to the nineteen twenties, and that was sort of a

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Speaker 1: roaring decade when amazing things were happening, and Americans were

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Speaker 1: doing all sorts of stuff. Lindbergh was flying across the

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Speaker 1: Atlantic coaching by himself and becoming an American hero. Prohibition

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Speaker 1: was in which meant that, just like with masks today,

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Speaker 1: many Americans were finding a way to get around the rules.

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Speaker 1: And it was a time when women were beginning to

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Speaker 1: be truly liberated, coming out of World War One at

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Speaker 1: a time of substantial economic wealth. So looking back on

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Speaker 1: the twenties, then later on historians started arguing about what

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Speaker 1: it really meant. And I want to talk now about

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Speaker 1: the new twenties, the two thousand and twenties. I think

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Speaker 1: every once in a while I ought to step from

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Speaker 1: the immediate mess and all of the gossip and all

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Speaker 1: the little things that we focus on and try to

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Speaker 1: get a sense of what's out there. I describe it

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Speaker 1: as looking at a fog bank and trying to see,

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Speaker 1: you know, what's that shape in the fog. Is it

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Speaker 1: a mountain? Is it a whale along the ocean? Is

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Speaker 1: it an airplane? What is it? You kind of see,

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Speaker 1: but you don't see. And I think that there's some

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Speaker 1: big things and we don't get around to them because

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Speaker 1: our current news media and our current political structure really

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Speaker 1: doesn't lend itself to this kind of a discussion. But

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Speaker 1: I want to start overseas and then go to technology

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Speaker 1: and then come back here at home. Overseas, I think

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Speaker 1: the twenties are going to be the time that China

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Speaker 1: truly emerges as a worldwide figure, directly competing with US

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Speaker 1: and having alliances start to shape, so that you'll see

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Speaker 1: some countries that decide their futures with China as why.

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Speaker 1: I think particularly true in Africa and maybe to a

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Speaker 1: slightly lesser extent in Latin America. I wouldn't be at

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Speaker 1: all surprised in the twenties to see Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua,

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Speaker 1: and potentially several other countries decide that they are really

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Speaker 1: part of an anti American Chinese alliance that will have

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Speaker 1: replaced the collapsing Russian alliance, as the Russians just economically

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Speaker 1: can't compete because they don't have any money and they

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Speaker 1: don't have an economy that produces anything. I think the

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Speaker 1: biggest single story of the twenties will be the rise

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Speaker 1: of China and the countervailing response of other countries, countries

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Speaker 1: like India, for example, which will strengthen itself directly in

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Speaker 1: response to the Chinese emergence. I think the second big

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Speaker 1: question people talk about black swans the idea of an

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Speaker 1: event occurring that nobody had thought about, So, in a sense,

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Speaker 1: the rise of COVID. Certainly, if you were Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and you were at the peak of economic growth and

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Speaker 1: everything was perfect in February, you'd have to say that

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Speaker 1: March brought a black swan in the form of COVID.

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Speaker 1: And I think they have to look for those kind

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Speaker 1: of events. And I think that you have to say,

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Speaker 1: with North Korea having nuclear weapons, with Iran getting nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 1: with Pakistan having nuclear weapons as well as India, what

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Speaker 1: are the dangers or the potential for some kind of

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Speaker 1: event to occur That it'sis the result of having so

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Speaker 1: many different variables moving simultaneously that you get a crisis

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Speaker 1: of crises, and certainly that could break out. You could

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Speaker 1: imagine stumbing into a huge fight between Israel and the

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Speaker 1: Arabs on one side and I Ran on the other side.

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Speaker 1: You could imagine either Russia or China deciding to side

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Speaker 1: with Iran. A lot of different variables. I think you

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Speaker 1: also have to look at you think of the twenties

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Speaker 1: as a decade long process. What happens with the steady

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Speaker 1: increase in Islamist behavior when you look, for example, in Nigeria,

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Speaker 1: a place that we normally don't pay much attention to,

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Speaker 1: although it's the most heavily populated country in Africa and

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Speaker 1: where recently several hundred young boys were kidnapped by a

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Speaker 1: Islamist force Bokh, which is a part of a worldwide

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Speaker 1: coalition of Islamists. What happens there the danger, for example

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Speaker 1: sub satur and Africa being dislocated in a way that

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Speaker 1: you have a wave not one or two million people

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Speaker 1: as in Syria, but thirty or forty million people migrating

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Speaker 1: towards Europe on a scale that the European just can't

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Speaker 1: cope with. Also, when you look at the twenties as

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Speaker 1: a long decade, and you go back a decade and

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Speaker 1: you look at how much France has decayed instability to

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Speaker 1: confront Islam, and you look at the recent beheadings of

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Speaker 1: several people, for example, or the televised killing of a

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Speaker 1: policewoman in her home by an Islamist who was then

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Speaker 1: killed by the police. The French have a crisis. We

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Speaker 1: see no evidence that the trend line is going to change.

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Speaker 1: So you would have to say that a decade from now,

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Speaker 1: France will probably be more Islamist than Christian, that the

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Speaker 1: government will be intimidated by the Islamist faction, and that

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Speaker 1: that will have effects across all of Europe. In terms

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Speaker 1: of Europe as a whole, I think the economic repercussions

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Speaker 1: of a government strategy of closing down and destroying businesses

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Speaker 1: will be felt at least for the first half of

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Speaker 1: the decade. People underestimate how easily governments can destroy economies

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Speaker 1: and how hard it is to restart those economies. So

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Speaker 1: some people who are looking naively out there and thinking, oh,

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Speaker 1: we'll be back to normal by next June, I can

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Speaker 1: just tell you, talking from Italy, that is not possible.

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Speaker 1: And in fact, given the radio which we have not

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Speaker 1: solved these problems, I'm not sure when tourism comes back.

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Speaker 1: If tourism doesn't come back, hotels and restaurants collapse, the

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Speaker 1: Italian economy collapses, the Greek economy collapses. They're huge forces

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Speaker 1: out there. The other side of that is fascinating parallel

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Speaker 1: that's brought on by technology, which is the countries that

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Speaker 1: were really really important, because the Saudi Arabia being the

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Speaker 1: best example, Russia being the second best example. The combination

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Speaker 1: of oil and natural gas increases, combined with a really

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Speaker 1: dramatic breakthrough technologically in having new kinds of technologies, particularly

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Speaker 1: solar power, which is beginning to drop in price to

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Speaker 1: where it's going to be genuinely competitive. All of these

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Speaker 1: things are coming together. And if the current movement towards

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Speaker 1: a small, very safe nuclear reactor system totally different from

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Speaker 1: the Ziet nuclear reactors of the last seventy years. But

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Speaker 1: if we start getting a genuinely small, totally safe nuclear

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Speaker 1: reactor system, you're going to see huge decline in the

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Speaker 1: importance of oil and gas. Natural gas will begin to

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Speaker 1: be important as a petrochemical feed for things like plastics,

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Speaker 1: but the result will be very substantial dislocations in centers

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Speaker 1: of wealth. So all of these things that were going

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Speaker 1: on simultaneously. I was always struck by a comment of

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Speaker 1: Bill Gates that you get less done in one year

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Speaker 1: and more done in five years than you expect, And

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Speaker 1: I think the same thing happens here. Trend lines that

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Speaker 1: look tiny in one or two year perspectives, if they

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Speaker 1: keep building can look gigantic in ten years. You see

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Speaker 1: that this trend line pattern, say in cell phones, go

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Speaker 1: back and look a very few years ago at what

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Speaker 1: cell phones were like, how limited they were, how few

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Speaker 1: things they did. And now look at the worldwide pattern

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Speaker 1: of smartphones where you can watch your movie on the

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Speaker 1: internet versually anywhere in the planet. These things are all

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Speaker 1: just remarkable changes. Well, the same thing is going to

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Speaker 1: be happening over the next decade. It's going to happen

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Speaker 1: in terms of the ability to use computing, it's going

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Speaker 1: to happen in terms of the ability to generate energy.

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Speaker 1: It's going to happen in medicine, or they're going to

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Speaker 1: be all sorts of breakthroughs, and each of these will

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Speaker 1: have its own added complexity. Right now, we're learning the

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Speaker 1: hard way because of COVID that we've actually build in

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Speaker 1: a system that allows us to work and talk from

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Speaker 1: almost anywhere. So with things like zoom or go to

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Speaker 1: meeting or FaceTime, we just have amazing capabilities that thirty

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Speaker 1: years ago would have seemed like science fiction. All of

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Speaker 1: that is going to accelerate, and all of it's going

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Speaker 1: to interact with other patterns. You're also going to see

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Speaker 1: a revolution in military capabilities is the rise of drones

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Speaker 1: in huge numbers, very small drones with artificial intelligence. And

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Speaker 1: you're presently going to see, certainly the Chinese and probably

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Speaker 1: the United States and maybe Russia the old entire fleets

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Speaker 1: of drones, so that one of the challenges, for example,

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Speaker 1: of Taiwan could easily be twenty thousand drones coming across

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Speaker 1: and straight simultaneously, and then how do you deal with them?

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Speaker 1: What is your anti tiny drone strategy? Twenty is finally

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Speaker 1: over and a new year is here, but the coronavirus

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Speaker 1: pandemic is still ugoing and millions of Americans are hurting economically.

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Speaker 1: This week on Allow with Giano Caldwell, I dig into

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Speaker 1: how to best move forward, strengthen our economy and put

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Speaker 1: more money in your pocket with Charles payin the host

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Speaker 1: of Making Money with Charles Paying on the Fox Business Network.

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Speaker 1: Charles is a best selling author and the founder and

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Speaker 1: CEO of Wall Street Strategies and independent stock mark research firm.

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Speaker 1: Charles and I also discuss what to expect in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one, China's impact on our economy and its inspiring

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Speaker 1: story of growing up in poverty, and becoming one of

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Speaker 1: the leading voices on cable and television. Listen to Outlaw

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Speaker 1: with Giano CALLBLA every Monday in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcast. Artificial intelligence is going

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Speaker 1: to get more and more powerful. It is already true

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Speaker 1: today that with the right artificial intelligence you can learn

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Speaker 1: more about a patient from the artificial intelligence than from

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Speaker 1: the doctor. That you can have better surgery with robotics

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Speaker 1: and artificial intelligence than with a human doctor. All these

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Speaker 1: things are going to accelerate. I personally believe you're going

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Speaker 1: to see both breakthroughs and things like Alzheimer's because I

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Speaker 1: think the amount of computational power is getting big enough

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Speaker 1: we're going to see real breakthroughs in understanding how the

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Speaker 1: human brain works. And it's important to remember it's the

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Speaker 1: combination of biology and computing which enabled us to have

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Speaker 1: such dramatic breakthroughs with the COVID vaccines. Twenty thirty forty

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Speaker 1: years ago. We couldn't have done it physically. Now we

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Speaker 1: both have models of DNA, we have systems of analysis,

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Speaker 1: we have ability to run all sorts of models. And

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Speaker 1: this is true by the way, where aircraft, where you

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Speaker 1: now have literally a wind tunnel and a computer, and

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Speaker 1: the computer can, with stunning accuras tell you how different

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Speaker 1: designs will work, and you can do years of work

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Speaker 1: in an afternoon. Because of this kind of computational power.

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Speaker 1: All these things are going to come together and they're

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Speaker 1: going to change winners and losers. We're going to be

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Speaker 1: in a world where relatively small countries, countries the size

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Speaker 1: of Iran or Venezuela, could have a military capability much

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Speaker 1: more dangerous than anything you would have thought of twenty

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Speaker 1: or thirty years ago. All of that will have an effect.

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Speaker 1: If you look out for ten years, it's almost certain

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Speaker 1: that the gray world will be bigger than ever. And

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Speaker 1: by gray world, I mean all of the illegal criminal

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Speaker 1: behaviors that are the underside of the global economy, human trafficking,

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Speaker 1: which is a huge industry. People don't realize that there

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Speaker 1: are at least million people a year sold into slavery

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Speaker 1: somewhere around the world, about ninety percent of the female,

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Speaker 1: almost all of it involving prostitution. People don't realize it.

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Speaker 1: In addition to that, you have, of course drugs, but

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Speaker 1: in addition to those who have illegal weapons, and then

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Speaker 1: you have a legal transportation, who gets paid to bring

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Speaker 1: your illegal product, whether it's a human being or a

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Speaker 1: drug or a weapon, across the border. And then you

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Speaker 1: have a legal finance because all of that is happening simultaneously,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's something you have to really think about.

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Speaker 1: All in my mind, all of these things are going

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Speaker 1: to be going on at once, and we're going to

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Speaker 1: find that there'll be entire countries, one of them has

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Speaker 1: probably Venezuela, which essentially will be gray world countries. That is,

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Speaker 1: virtually everything in the country will be illegal, but will

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Speaker 1: be legal in terms of the local government, which will

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Speaker 1: protect the illegal. And we're not really prepared to think

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Speaker 1: through living in that kind of world. Meanwhile, back in

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Speaker 1: the United States, we face a core crisis which I

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Speaker 1: think will be unavoidable. And I'll give you a couple examples.

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Speaker 1: We've built an edifice of enormously expensive colleges and universities,

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Speaker 1: and we've built them in such a way that it

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Speaker 1: requires two distortions. One distortion is a student loan program

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Speaker 1: in which the future basically gets indebted to the present,

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Speaker 1: and in which middle class and upper middle class students

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Speaker 1: get to borrow lots of money to stay in college

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Speaker 1: longer while taking fewer courses. As the college is raised

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Speaker 1: their costs because the professors have a natural desire to

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Speaker 1: have the highest possible salary the smallest possible amount of work,

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Speaker 1: and the administrators would like to have the maximum number

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Speaker 1: of administrators. And so as long as the government's willing

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Speaker 1: to subsidize it, they're just going to keep raising tuition

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Speaker 1: and fees and other things. And this has been a

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Speaker 1: cycle we've been in now for thirty years, and which

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Speaker 1: is clearly moving towards bankruptcy if you look at over

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Speaker 1: a trillion dollars in student loan debt. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: many of our best universities have built a very large

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Speaker 1: part of their portfolio on foreign students. In fact, there

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Speaker 1: are probably forty or fifty universities that absolutely have to

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Speaker 1: have Chinese students in order to be able to meet budget. Now,

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Speaker 1: as you look at all this, as college gets more

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Speaker 1: expensive and less necessary, because more companies are beginning to

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Speaker 1: say to people, look, you know, if you can do

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Speaker 1: the job, just come to work for me. You don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily to have a degree. We'll get you the skills.

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Speaker 1: We'll use online learning, we use apprenticeships, will use a

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Speaker 1: lot of different ways so that you can go ahead

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Speaker 1: and start earning a living. Right now, we have far

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Speaker 1: too many people paying far too much money to go

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Speaker 1: to schools from which they will get no economic advantage.

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Speaker 1: You could go out and become a welder, go to

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Speaker 1: work in the oil and gas industry, make one hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty thousand dollars a year, do all of it,

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Speaker 1: just two years of education, and at the end of

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Speaker 1: five years you're so much better off than your sister

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Speaker 1: or a brother or a cousin who borrowed all that money,

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Speaker 1: got a degree for a program and will pay them

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Speaker 1: sixty thousand dollars a year, and now has this huge

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Speaker 1: debt hanging over. And so I think you're going to

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Speaker 1: see a real transition towards people who just decide to

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Speaker 1: go and earn a living and acquire the skills they need.

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Speaker 1: As the degrees become less and less important, so the

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Speaker 1: universities are going to find it harder to fill up

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Speaker 1: with Americans. And you see this, by the way, if

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Speaker 1: you watch advertising. When I land on a lot of airports,

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Speaker 1: there are three or four big ads for local universities

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Speaker 1: because they're desperate to attract students. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: if they suddenly don't get foreign students because they charge

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Speaker 1: foreign students as a rule, more than they charge American students.

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Speaker 1: And so I think you're going to see an enormous

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Speaker 1: cash crunch in higher education as part of the next decade. Lastly,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be an enormous fight between the teachers'

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Speaker 1: unions and government employee unions in general and the need

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Speaker 1: to rationalize the system and make it effective when you

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Speaker 1: learn how much we're paying, and of course this will

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Speaker 1: be highlighted by the consequence of COVID and the numbers

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Speaker 1: of billions and billions of dollars we paid to teach

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Speaker 1: to not show up and the number of students who

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Speaker 1: did not get an education. And as it sinks in

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Speaker 1: that we can't possibly compete with China with the current

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Speaker 1: education system, and we will have an enormous national security

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Speaker 1: pressure to profoundly reform the various unionized schools, and the

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Speaker 1: unions will fight it. This will be one of the

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Speaker 1: most bitter, intense fights of the twenties, and I think

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Speaker 1: the fate of America may depend on winning that fight.

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Speaker 1: So as you look at all this, I just kind

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Speaker 1: of wanted to get you to be thinking about all

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Speaker 1: these things. And finally, I just want to say that

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Speaker 1: I was an optimist when President Trump announced We're going

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Speaker 1: to go to the Moon and to Mars, and I

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Speaker 1: was an optimist when Vice President Pence gave an amazing

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Speaker 1: speech at Huntsville on getting there. I have gradually become

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Speaker 1: a pessimist, and I believe the odds now are that

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Speaker 1: the Chinese will get there before us, unless we're saved

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Speaker 1: by people like Elon Musk and Jeff Basis on a

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Speaker 1: purely private basis, because I think that NASA's bureaucracy, combined

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Speaker 1: with congressional pork barrel, has crippled the ability of the

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Speaker 1: United States to spend money in a rational way, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think that it's very likely that we're going

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Speaker 1: to see that continue. So I think that what you're

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Speaker 1: going to find is that the momentum that's there, that's real,

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Speaker 1: that would be amazing, that should happen, may well get undercut.

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Speaker 1: And if it does get undercut, you should expect to

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Speaker 1: see the Chinese become the dominant force in space, and

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Speaker 1: that would have both psychological and diplomatic implications, as well

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Speaker 1: as military implications. So I think the decade of twenties

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Speaker 1: is going to be the decade of huge challenges, the

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Speaker 1: decade of huge choices, and the decade of either America

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Speaker 1: once again reinventing itself and becoming the leading entrepreneurial, dynamic

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Speaker 1: country in the world, or the decade in which the

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Speaker 1: Americans decided it was just all too hard and they

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Speaker 1: basically relaxed in a long period of living off their pensions,

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Speaker 1: golfing and hoping that the Chinese didn't notice the too sin.

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Speaker 1: So it's going to be exciting, and they'll be reporting

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Speaker 1: about it regularly and trying to get people to think

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Speaker 1: longer than just the next thirty second conversation on talk radio.

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Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia.

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Speaker 1: Our executive producers Debbie Myers, our producer is Garnsey Sloan,

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Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the

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Speaker 1: show was created by Steve Kendell. Special thanks to the

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Speaker 1: team at Gingwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying News World,

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Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate

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Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review. So

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Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. I'm new gingwish.

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Speaker 1: This is news world,