Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,
Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of
Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Donald Trump won't rule out banning
Speaker 1: vaccines if he becomes president. We have a great show
Speaker 1: for you today, the Lincoln Project. Zonne Rick Wilson breaks
Speaker 1: down the Des Moines Register seltzer ple and what it
Speaker 1: tells us about the vice president's chances of becoming our
Speaker 1: next president.
Speaker 2: Then we'll talk to Emily's.
Speaker 1: List Jessica Meckler about how she sees reproductive rights affecting
Speaker 1: this election.
Speaker 2: But first the news.
Speaker 3: So, Molly, we are in the final unraveling of Trump
Speaker 3: on this campaign trail. He's talking about that if you
Speaker 3: shoot the press, he doesn't care. He said he shouldn't
Speaker 3: have left the White House after the twenty twenty election.
Speaker 4: What are you seeing here? Because what I'm seeing I
Speaker 4: don't like.
Speaker 1: It's a whole cavalcade of crazy. We have Donald Trump
Speaker 1: bragging about how many filled seats there are in his rally. Wow,
Speaker 1: the camera is panning to half empty seats. We have
Speaker 1: Donald Trump saying that they should take away the licensing
Speaker 1: for CBS. We have Donald Trump talking about how he
Speaker 1: would be fine if people want to shoot through the
Speaker 1: journal as a journalist, we don't like that too much.
Speaker 1: Then we have Donald Trump. I just want to mention
Speaker 1: this again for the few people who haven't seen it.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump pretended to filate a microphone. That was something
Speaker 1: that I will probably an image I will never be
Speaker 1: able to get out of my head.
Speaker 2: And then Donald.
Speaker 1: Trump's people, the people around him, his other speakers have
Speaker 1: also been an incredible disaster.
Speaker 2: We have her Walker who said it stops on Tuesday
Speaker 2: when we.
Speaker 1: Vote for my friend and your friend Donald Trump Junior,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, Donald J.
Speaker 2: Trump.
Speaker 3: My favorite was what RFK said that he's going to
Speaker 3: take the flour eye out of the water and created
Speaker 3: that conversation.
Speaker 1: Uplied, Yes, RFK Junior is also going to take the
Speaker 1: floor out of the water so we can all have
Speaker 1: cavities again. But Marco Rubio wants everyone to know and
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I don't know.
Speaker 2: Who is thinking this, but this is just amazing.
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, who is Cuban, tells the crowded Trump's rallies.
Speaker 1: I want to make clear that Mark Cuban is not Cuban.
Speaker 1: I don't know how he got that name. He's not
Speaker 1: Cuban all right.
Speaker 3: I think this goes to that thing of what Josh
Speaker 3: Marshall said on a previous episode of our podcast that
Speaker 3: this is what happens when your four chan is doing
Speaker 3: the forwarding of your rallies like kids who grew up
Speaker 3: on four chan.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty bleak.
Speaker 1: I mean it's we're The next time we come to you,
Speaker 1: it will be us trying to fill a buster because
Speaker 1: we don't know the results of the election.
Speaker 3: We do have a little bit more polling though, that
Speaker 3: we could share with people some last minute polls that
Speaker 3: they may not have heard because they were doing better
Speaker 3: things on their Sunday than what you and I were doing.
Speaker 1: They're not extreme for those of you who are not
Speaker 1: extremely online. We have a general election New York Times poll,
Speaker 1: General election New York Times North Carolina poll, and it
Speaker 1: shows Harris up to over Trump, and that would track
Speaker 1: from what we've seen because Donald Trump has been in
Speaker 1: North Carolina twice or three times this weekend, and if
Speaker 1: Donald Trump loses North Carolina that'll be really tough for him.
Speaker 1: That's an A plus poll of a thousand and ten
Speaker 1: likely voters.
Speaker 3: And the last poll had him up by two right.
Speaker 1: So that will be a that's a four point movement
Speaker 1: towards Harris, which is something to think about. And then
Speaker 1: a final NBC News poll, the last poll of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four presidential campaign shows that Trump is only earning
Speaker 1: nine percent of black support. That's lower than he the
Speaker 1: twelve percent he received during the twenty twenty presidential election
Speaker 1: when he ran against Joe Biden. Now, I just want
Speaker 1: to point out that we have had so many fucking
Speaker 1: articles about how Donald Trump is peeling away the black
Speaker 1: vote and how he selling sneakers was going to get
Speaker 1: black voters. So again, we don't know what the final
Speaker 1: numbers look like, but I just want to point out
Speaker 1: that if he's doing three points less well than he
Speaker 1: was with Joe Biden, it means that the sneakers.
Speaker 2: Did not work.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, Molly. Our last subject for our headlines is
Speaker 3: a not so fun one, which is that The Daily
Speaker 3: Beast has released more tapes of Jeffrey Epstein, which I
Speaker 3: have heard a lot, and he really really talks about
Speaker 3: how good friends him and Trump were and calls him
Speaker 3: one of his closest friends for ten years. And there's
Speaker 3: also there's a lot.
Speaker 2: In there and what really struck out to you.
Speaker 1: It was.
Speaker 3: Remarkable, remarkable how intimate details he knew about Trump in
Speaker 3: his life, which really showed how close a friends they were.
Speaker 3: That was not the type of stuff that somebody you
Speaker 3: occasionally see at a party knows about you. So just
Speaker 3: a lot of stories of them hanging out together.
Speaker 1: So I mean, again, I'm sure that there is certainly
Speaker 1: some that they had some kind of relationship. And you'll
Speaker 1: remember that a lot of these Trump supporters are obsessed
Speaker 1: with pedophilia and child sexual abuse, and here is a
Speaker 1: guy who legitimately ran a child sexual abuse ring who
Speaker 1: was talking about being friends with Trump. Unfortunately, all of
Speaker 1: us information has come out way too late in the
Speaker 1: cycle to affect the vote, which is sort of interesting
Speaker 1: that these tapes get released.
Speaker 2: Like two three days before an election.
Speaker 1: But they certainly are out there, though I'm not seeing
Speaker 1: them get a ton of pick up.
Speaker 3: Seems like it's getting a lot of pickup online, but
Speaker 3: the mainstream media has not picked it up quite yet.
Speaker 3: I also would say that the lawyers for mainstream media,
Speaker 3: let's don't usually work on the weekends.
Speaker 1: So Rick Wilson is the founder of the Lincoln Project
Speaker 1: in the host of the Enemy's list, Welcome back too
Speaker 1: Fast Politics.
Speaker 2: It's Sunday. You will listen to this on Monday.
Speaker 1: The day before the twenty twenty four election. We have
Speaker 1: the one, the only Rick Wilson here. Rick Wilson, what
Speaker 1: are the vibes.
Speaker 5: The vibes are that Maga world is in a horrible
Speaker 5: teeth grinding, girning shit show.
Speaker 4: Panic.
Speaker 5: These are like people who suddenly see the entire structure
Speaker 5: they've built up to bullshit themselves not working on other
Speaker 5: people anymore.
Speaker 1: Is it Seltzer Sunday? Let's talk about a Seltzer.
Speaker 5: It is an Seltzer Sunday. And Seltzer is probably one
Speaker 5: of the best polsters in this country. And you know,
Speaker 5: guys like me who've been around the block in Iowa
Speaker 5: a couple of times over the decades, you looked at
Speaker 5: the Seltzer pole as the most accurate and clean poll
Speaker 5: in Iowa. She still uses a lot of old school methodology.
Speaker 5: She doesn't go in and put her thumb on the
Speaker 5: scale ahead of time to wait the survey to get
Speaker 5: the results she wants. It's very straightforward. And so the
Speaker 5: fact that you have an Seltzer coming out on Friday
Speaker 5: night on a Saturday Night, excuse.
Speaker 2: Me, seven pm EST, Baby.
Speaker 4: Seven pm Eest.
Speaker 5: Forty seven to forty four among likely voters in the
Speaker 5: Great State of Iowa.
Speaker 4: With Harris in the lead, Harris ahead.
Speaker 1: Folks explain to our listeners how a Seltzer pole translates
Speaker 1: to other states.
Speaker 5: Okay, there are a lot of similarities between Iowa and
Speaker 5: places like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, even Ohio has some demographic parallels. Now, look,
Speaker 5: do I think we're going to win Ohio?
Speaker 6: No?
Speaker 5: But do I think Ohio is going to be a
Speaker 5: lot closer than people think. And what's really interesting under
Speaker 5: the hood of the Selleser poll, Not only is the
Speaker 5: head to head really important to look at, but what's
Speaker 5: under the hood is that she's doing better with seniors
Speaker 5: than Biden did in twenty twenty. She's doing much better
Speaker 5: with young voters, she's doing much better with college educated voters.
Speaker 5: And all these numbers underneath it are showing a degree
Speaker 5: of enthusiasm for her that I think is really telling,
Speaker 5: and it is really important the voters that she's going
Speaker 5: to be able to pull in a state like Iowa,
Speaker 5: if it's even close in a state like Iowa, it's
Speaker 5: going to mean very bad things for Donald Trump across
Speaker 5: the country on election day. Iowa should be a safe
Speaker 5: red state. We know that the campaign is losing its mind.
Speaker 5: Fat Tony the polster put out a memo last night
Speaker 5: trying to blow up the Salzer poll. I can just
Speaker 5: tell you, at no point in the history of any
Speaker 5: time ever in America has anyone said, hmm, Tony the
Speaker 5: pollster is more reliable than Ann Selzer. Never happened with
Speaker 5: any human being. And the other part of this that's
Speaker 5: going on here is that you're seeing that women are
Speaker 5: comprising a large sector of the likely electorate, a larger
Speaker 5: than usual sector of the likely electorate. If that's the case,
Speaker 5: Donald Trump is going to get blown out. And again,
Speaker 5: I keep going back to this. You know me, I
Speaker 5: am not like a stupidly optimistic guy. I am pretty
Speaker 5: worn down and hardened by all this crap.
Speaker 2: It's one of your best qualities.
Speaker 5: For the last thirty years of doing this. But these
Speaker 5: numbers across all these surveys are not showing a Trump victory.
Speaker 5: If there is something like that that's out there that
Speaker 5: we're not seeing, nobody else in the world is seeing
Speaker 5: it either. I think a lot of these pollsters have
Speaker 5: ended up putting their thumb on the scale because they
Speaker 5: still have PTSD about twenty sixteen. They are terrified to
Speaker 5: show Trump behind because if he comes from behind, then wins. Somehow,
Speaker 5: they're going to be embarrassed. But these numbers are not
Speaker 5: holding up the big factors. More women voting, a huge
Speaker 5: influx of younger women voters, women voters under the age
Speaker 5: of thirty. They're not here because they're worried about trade policy.
Speaker 5: They're here because they're worried about climate change. They're here
Speaker 5: because the Dobbs decision.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to go back to Saltzer for a minute.
Speaker 1: So the way it works is Democrats are supposed to
Speaker 1: lose Iowa. Right, That's how it lot by a lot.
Speaker 1: So here's how you interpret it. Trump at eleven plus
Speaker 1: eleven or higher, that would be a Trump blowout. Trump
Speaker 1: nine to ten plus is good. Seven to nine means
Speaker 1: a close election. Right, Trump up five to six in
Speaker 1: Iowa is good for Harris. Trump plus four or lower
Speaker 1: means a Harris blowout. We have Trump at negative three.
Speaker 5: Yeah, if that ends up being the case, if we
Speaker 5: end up seeing Iowa turned into a route on Trump,
Speaker 5: it is going to be a very tough night for
Speaker 5: Donald because increasingly our numbers, we are increasingly confident about
Speaker 5: Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Just this morning, I was getting
Speaker 5: briefed on a lot of the field activity in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 5: We've got our own teams up there as well, doing
Speaker 5: work on the ground. We've got some of our people
Speaker 5: up in Pennsylvania right now. And we had one of
Speaker 5: our our guys go and actually worked doors yesterday and
Speaker 5: this morning and in Trump areas, marginal areas. And he
Speaker 5: reported back after eighty doors over two days that his
Speaker 5: strongest takeaway was Democrats are hyped over the moon. Trump
Speaker 5: voters are angry, but a lot of people who should
Speaker 5: be Trump voters, like I'm staying home. I don't want
Speaker 5: to vote for her, but I can't deal with him
Speaker 5: anymore either. I'll take it okay if we end up
Speaker 5: with the Blue Wall. And as you can see, Trump
Speaker 5: is playing hard defense right now in North Carolina. He
Speaker 5: is spending the majority of his time in North Carolina.
Speaker 5: There was some discussion inside Trump World last night.
Speaker 2: Because they can't afford to lose North Carolina.
Speaker 5: No, if you lose North Carolina and Iowa and the
Speaker 5: Blue Wall. That's it, We're done.
Speaker 2: Nobody thinks let's just read for it.
Speaker 1: Just I want to just add a cautious note, nobody
Speaker 1: thinks Trump is going to lose Iowa.
Speaker 2: It's more of being close.
Speaker 1: In Iowa is a sign of how bad a position
Speaker 1: Trump is in.
Speaker 5: It is partially that. But I want to say this,
Speaker 5: Ann Selzer's track record over the years of prediction in
Speaker 5: Iowa is ridiculous. It is so high, it is so
Speaker 5: consistently on the money.
Speaker 2: And she called the election for Trump in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 5: Yes, And there are plenty of folks, you know, who
Speaker 5: have never been in a campaign, by the way, who
Speaker 5: have never done any electoral electoral work, who have never
Speaker 5: dealt with pulling in any real capacity other than as
Speaker 5: Internet experts on pulling. And there are so many of them.
Speaker 2: It's nice. I like it when you get into the
Speaker 2: resentful part.
Speaker 5: There are a lot of these people. John Patriot four
Speaker 5: sex seven one oh two four nine seven to two,
Speaker 5: who became a Twitter user on August twenty twenty three,
Speaker 5: who's like my analysis of these polls and it gets
Speaker 5: like a billion a billion retweets from morons. You're like, stop, stop,
Speaker 5: this is really not as difficult as you think. Women
Speaker 5: are pissed off. Young women are extremely, extremely pissed off.
Speaker 5: She's winning for at least overperforming with college educated women
Speaker 5: and college educated men. If you take away those two
Speaker 5: demos from the Trump coalition, you're done this country. I
Speaker 5: feel like in a lot of ways, it woke up
Speaker 5: about twenty four hours ago, forty eight hours ago and said, oh,
Speaker 5: I'm done. That's enough, because they get it. They get
Speaker 5: what's at stake. They get what they get that their
Speaker 5: liberty is at stake. They get that their lives are
Speaker 5: at stake. And Donald Trump hasn't helped himself in the
Speaker 5: last ten days unless he's looking for post prison employment.
Speaker 1: So I want to talk about one other thing about
Speaker 1: polling before we stop being me into Nate Silver.
Speaker 4: If you're in line to dunk on Nate Silver, stay
Speaker 4: in line.
Speaker 6: And I'm not.
Speaker 1: This is like two way too online people complain about
Speaker 1: other way too online people. But I have another thing.
Speaker 1: I want to just take a minute to talk about hurting.
Speaker 1: Explain to our listeners what hurting is.
Speaker 5: Go there's a sort of social behavior of pushing people
Speaker 5: into the same frame of the narrative, the same conclusory
Speaker 5: frame of a narrative. And I'm sorry, I have to
Speaker 5: just break in for a second while we're recording this.
Speaker 5: I just got a message on my phone that says
Speaker 5: Miami University of Ohio has just released their survey. It's
Speaker 5: a pretty good survey generally speaking. Trump forty nine, Here's
Speaker 5: forty six in Ohio. Issu's three points back in Ohio.
Speaker 2: He's fucked.
Speaker 5: He's fuck a doodle doo. As they say in the
Speaker 5: technical polling world.
Speaker 1: I think Mike DeWine won that stay by twenty seven points.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And so let's be let's be very real here
Speaker 5: about what this means. This means that there is no
Speaker 5: say place for Trump anywhere outside of the.
Speaker 2: Deep South and Fox News.
Speaker 4: No, he hates Fox News now. I don't know if
Speaker 4: you saw it. Since this morning, he's very very angry.
Speaker 2: Why what did they do to him? Those bastards.
Speaker 5: They've allowed ads on their air that criticize him.
Speaker 2: God damn it, monsters.
Speaker 4: I know it's terrible.
Speaker 5: But by the way, the other thing that Sealzer poll
Speaker 5: was telling me, back to Luke, back to Iowa and
Speaker 5: herding for a second, because this is the.
Speaker 4: Opposite of it.
Speaker 1: Twenty five points. Sorry, Mike DeWine got reelected with twenty
Speaker 1: five points.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The other thing that's going on in Iowa is Democrats,
Speaker 5: even in some of the more difficult districts there are
Speaker 5: overperforming by about seven or eight points where.
Speaker 4: They should be.
Speaker 1: No one knows what's going to happen on Tuesday, but
Speaker 1: I want to do two seconds about how fucking wrong
Speaker 1: the media industrial complex was at every point.
Speaker 5: Well, that's what I was getting to because you had
Speaker 5: you did ask a very smart question about what the
Speaker 5: herting effect. And for the last let's even just take
Speaker 5: it from the time Vice President Harris got into the race.
Speaker 5: Between that period of time and today, there has been
Speaker 5: one narrative in the national media, only one narrative, tie ballgame,
Speaker 5: horse race, too close to call, split right down the middle.
Speaker 5: It's not true. And they've they've managed to heard a
Speaker 5: lot of people who follow the mainstream media into a
Speaker 5: mental frame of oh, it's too close to call, it's
Speaker 5: too close to call. Yes, it's close, it may not be.
Speaker 5: There are now many many more signs and look, we're
Speaker 5: rerunning a bunch of regressions on our model this morning.
Speaker 5: It's not going to pop out till later in the
Speaker 5: day because it's we're going to run five thousand tests
Speaker 5: or something like that. Our model's chance of Harris blowout
Speaker 5: has been spiking up dramatically in the last few days,
Speaker 5: and we think with this last round of polling, even
Speaker 5: though everybody steps on the numbers, even though everybody is
Speaker 5: like desperately trying to not be embarrassed by missing out
Speaker 5: a Trump surge like they did in twenty sixteen and
Speaker 5: living out their PTSD for all that, I'm increasingly feeling
Speaker 5: like this is not a tie ball game. And again,
Speaker 5: is there something out there? Is there something we're missing
Speaker 5: ex factor that I'm missing. I have laid awake at night.
Speaker 5: I have pondered this. I have talked to people smarter
Speaker 5: than me by a long shot, and I might add I.
Speaker 1: Have called you five times a day for the last
Speaker 1: ten days.
Speaker 4: And asked you how are you feeling?
Speaker 2: And also, is there something you're fucking missing?
Speaker 5: Yeah, and believe me, I want to know what I'm missing.
Speaker 5: If I'm missing something, I want to know it. I
Speaker 5: want to find it. I want to kill it.
Speaker 2: But you want to shoot it with the gun?
Speaker 4: Well, yes, actually I do.
Speaker 5: I don't have a failure mode in these models right
Speaker 5: now that I'm not seeing early voting numbers are so
Speaker 5: heavily stacked over toward women that unless there's some secret
Speaker 5: Trump vote of women on abortion in his side of
Speaker 5: this matter, I can't find it. Unless there's some secret
Speaker 5: field program out there that Elon is running and not
Speaker 5: just dragging people around in rider trucks and abandoning them
Speaker 5: in faraway states, we're not seeing its effect. All of
Speaker 5: these things are in my mind and signs of an
Speaker 5: impending win for Harris.
Speaker 1: And I want to pause for a second, just for
Speaker 1: one last thing about polls. All of these polls have
Speaker 1: been R plus two or R plus three because they
Speaker 1: weren't expecting an R plus two or R pus three
Speaker 1: or electorate, when in fact, after overturning Roe v. Wade
Speaker 1: a right that women have had since nineteen seventy three,
Speaker 1: it would have been more realistic to have maybe pulled
Speaker 1: with a D plus one electorate.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean stacking the electorate to look like R
Speaker 5: plus two, three, four, five, six, or even stacking the
Speaker 5: electorate in some of these cases to look like twenty sixteen.
Speaker 5: If you look at the way twenty sixteen ended, Donald
Speaker 5: Trump how to be portray Hillary Clinton sick, old, tired,
Speaker 5: couldn't finish a speech, week, failing, not doing well, disliked
Speaker 5: by her own party in many ways, no real constituency.
Speaker 5: Trump has become the character that he pretended Hillary Clinton
Speaker 5: was in twenty sixteen. Oh it's smart, okay, And I
Speaker 5: think that is going to corrode Trump in this last bit.
Speaker 5: And I will also say this, we're looking at a
Speaker 5: real the rally differential. I know it's like aneic data
Speaker 5: as they call it. But Trump in these small halls
Speaker 5: with these small audiences that don't look that revved up,
Speaker 5: don't look that enthusiastic. And yesterday when he was out
Speaker 5: there on this company, He's like, this is almost the end.
Speaker 5: We won't be doing this much longer. He gets it,
Speaker 5: he knows this is over. He knows it's not coming back.
Speaker 5: He's not going to have some sort of magical flip.
Speaker 5: This thing doesn't have the feel. And I know feelings
Speaker 5: are are not data, but it doesn't have the feel
Speaker 5: and the vibe that you would have. And think about
Speaker 5: how the campaigns are ending, Molly. She's ending optimistic, big crowds,
Speaker 5: big excitement going on Saturday night, live optimistic message, keeping
Speaker 5: up this idea that the country's going to be better.
Speaker 5: Donald Trump is still you know, the apocalypse, doom and gloom.
Speaker 5: They're eating the dogs, all this crap, and nothing they're
Speaker 5: doing is working to change that narrative ructure.
Speaker 1: I also think we didn't cover the right stuff, Like
Speaker 1: if you're going to post mortem mainstream media, and I
Speaker 1: say this as a member of the mainstream media, we
Speaker 1: didn't spend enough time covering women. We didn't spend enough
Speaker 1: time covering Roe v.
Speaker 2: Wade. You know, we spend so.
Speaker 1: Much time being mad at Hispanic men and not nearly
Speaker 1: enough time looking at the women vote or looking at
Speaker 1: and you know, Hispanic men may end up supporting her
Speaker 1: in the same numbers.
Speaker 2: We don't know, right, we're not at.
Speaker 5: A moment where journalism is ready to take a look
Speaker 5: at how they blew this race, but they did. We're
Speaker 5: not at a moment where conservatism inc. Is ready to.
Speaker 4: Say, oh my god, we've really fucked this up.
Speaker 5: And honestly, the idea that people are going to say, oh,
Speaker 5: you're just attacking the Times or you're just mad at
Speaker 5: the media, because blah blah, I'm mad at them for
Speaker 5: fucking up their own reputations. I'm mad at them for
Speaker 5: drinking the poison that Trump keeps feeding them every minute
Speaker 5: of the day. I'm mad at them for putting themselves
Speaker 5: in a way that compromises is the future of journalism,
Speaker 5: because they were afraid that Trump might win, and that
Speaker 5: some of them who we know are so sunk into
Speaker 5: the Stockholm syndrome of being afraid of Trump that they
Speaker 5: are buying into the bullshit of Trump. I mean, all
Speaker 5: this has to be in a challenging media environment. A
Speaker 5: little bit of recognition of their self and their and
Speaker 5: their own culpability to the corruption of Trump and trump
Speaker 5: Ism would be really smart. But these narratives that they
Speaker 5: ran down the rabbit hole on Here's what's going to
Speaker 5: happen with African Americans on Tuesday. They're going to fall
Speaker 5: almost precisely within the historical median of African American voter performance,
Speaker 5: both in terms of turnout and in terms of party selection.
Speaker 5: He may have a small spike in Hispanic support, but
Speaker 5: it's probably still going to fall short at what George W.
Speaker 5: Bush got in twenty or thirty seven percent. The things
Speaker 5: that they claimed they were doing and the things they
Speaker 5: claimed that their message was influenced where their message was
Speaker 5: influencing in the campaign were bullshit, and the reporters around
Speaker 5: them in the bubble of Trump World drank the poison,
Speaker 5: believe the bullshit. And I get it. It's a hard
Speaker 5: thing to do to be as a critical voice and
Speaker 5: to question these people when they know that access and
Speaker 5: connection and Trump World whatever is vital. I mean, the
Speaker 5: only time now that it's started to break down, where
Speaker 5: reporters are starting to drill in and do things that
Speaker 5: the campaign hates texted was somebody last night who told
Speaker 5: me that the nuclear meltdown over the tim alberta article
Speaker 5: from the Atlantic this weekend inside Trump World is beyond
Speaker 5: I mean they've all started the blame storming.
Speaker 2: Well, that article was amazing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was like them starting blamestorming even before the
Speaker 1: early voting was counted, right.
Speaker 5: Yes, Sadly, I think you're going to see the media say, well,
Speaker 5: we did as good as we could because Trump is
Speaker 5: so weird and so degenerate and so blah blah blah
Speaker 5: blah blah, and nobody could have done a better job,
Speaker 5: and so we're going to forgive ourselves and move on.
Speaker 4: I think that's a mistake.
Speaker 2: Thank you of course.
Speaker 1: Jessica Mackler is the president of Emily's List. Welcome to
Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Jessica Meckler. I am so excited to have
Speaker 1: you here. I want to just give a two second
Speaker 1: introduction to you. You are the head of Emily's List,
Speaker 1: which is this organization that's a long established organization to
Speaker 1: a luck women. But we did a panel together at
Speaker 1: the Harvard Institute of Politics and what I was struck
Speaker 1: by was how much you are in it in the field.
Speaker 2: So where are you right now and tell us about that?
Speaker 6: Yes, well, I am in Las Vegasabata today and this
Speaker 6: is I think my eighth thop in just a couple
Speaker 6: of weeks out of the campaign trail. I was with
Speaker 6: other Reproductive Freedom partners and Thunder Jackie Rosen and Sundator
Speaker 6: Sammy Duckworth this morning talking about the things to reproductive
Speaker 6: freedom here in Nevada.
Speaker 2: So two questions about Nevada.
Speaker 1: One is what is it like? Can you see the sphere?
Speaker 1: And is that the largest political advertisement ever? And is
Speaker 1: Harris on it?
Speaker 2: It's just a bit of sort of trivia. But do
Speaker 2: you think that that will have any influence on voting?
Speaker 6: We are going to drive by this spehar because I'm
Speaker 6: actually headed back to the airport to go to another
Speaker 6: campaign and stop. But I've seen pictures of it, I
Speaker 6: haven't seen it in person of it. I want to
Speaker 6: before I go.
Speaker 4: Look.
Speaker 6: I mean, this election Nevada's battleground state. I've worked here before,
Speaker 6: and I will say that it is always close. We
Speaker 6: know this was the state in twenty twenty two that
Speaker 6: delivered the hold of the Sun of Majority in the
Speaker 6: closest race in the country, and so we expect that
Speaker 6: again this time. And I think anything that we can
Speaker 6: do to put the message in front of voters is
Speaker 6: going to be really critical in this final stretch.
Speaker 1: It's funny because it's like there was initially a big
Speaker 1: freak out about the early vote in Nevada, and then
Speaker 1: Democrats caught up almost or close to right.
Speaker 2: And it's just interesting to me that historically that's how
Speaker 2: it goes there.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think early vote is really important in Nevada
Speaker 6: because a lot of voters do participate in the early vote.
Speaker 6: The key thing in this election cycle is there's just
Speaker 6: a lot of different factors that make it a little
Speaker 6: bit hard to compare with this election cycle to other
Speaker 6: election cycles. Republicans, despite complaining about early vote and disparaging
Speaker 6: early votes, have decided to encourage their voters to vote early,
Speaker 6: and so we're seeing that they're cannibalizing their election day vote.
Speaker 6: Twenty percent of the Republicans who voted early in this
Speaker 6: election historically vote on election day. And we also know
Speaker 6: that because now Nevada has automatic voter registration, and when
Speaker 6: you're registered automatically, you're a registered nonpartisan, and so we
Speaker 6: have a big other nonpartisan category started the early book. Yeah,
Speaker 6: And what we know though, is that when we look
Speaker 6: at the demographics of those voters who are voting early,
Speaker 6: they are younger, they are more diverse, and so we
Speaker 6: feel really good about that electorate turning out for us
Speaker 6: and being with the Democrats in this election. But you know,
Speaker 6: it is going to be a close election. We've known that.
Speaker 6: I've said for weeks and months that Nevada was going
Speaker 6: to be close because it's a battleground state for a reason,
Speaker 6: so we need every vote vote. I will The other
Speaker 6: thing I will just say is that Nevada knows how
Speaker 6: to do the work. And I was in a standing
Speaker 6: room only crowd today of people who were revved up
Speaker 6: to go give this phone bank, do the work to
Speaker 6: bring in those voters.
Speaker 1: Rosen has led Brown this entire time in the center
Speaker 1: race at the bottom of the ticket. Doesn't that account
Speaker 1: for anything?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 6: Absolutely, I mean Jackie Rosen enters the final stretch of
Speaker 6: this election in a strong place because of the campaign
Speaker 6: that she's built, because of the record that she has,
Speaker 6: and that really has been driven by the fight for
Speaker 6: reproductive rights. He has made this issue essential part of
Speaker 6: her campaign and has really driven home in the contrast
Speaker 6: between herself and Sam Brown. You know, she comes into
Speaker 6: these final days of this election after having run this
Speaker 6: incredibly strong campaign, and that is really important. As we
Speaker 6: get to the ends here.
Speaker 1: Talk to me about the other battlegrounds, for example, this
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania early vote situation, because it could be a meaning
Speaker 1: couple indication of what we're going to see too, it
Speaker 1: could also not be.
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is the hardest part, right because everybody, you know,
Speaker 6: we because the election is so important, the states are
Speaker 6: so high and so we're looking for every little tidbit
Speaker 6: to try to figure out where things stand. But we
Speaker 6: have some encouraging news. Right It's notspositive, but we are
Speaker 6: looking at the numbers in Pennsylvania and we feel really
Speaker 6: good about that. We see that among the new female voters,
Speaker 6: Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one. And then we
Speaker 6: see that we just overall are seeing turnout with women
Speaker 6: in Pennsylvania and in other early vote states. That is
Speaker 6: really encouraging.
Speaker 2: Which other early vote states.
Speaker 6: The early numbers out of North Carolina as well show
Speaker 6: that women are out paything bad And you know, across
Speaker 6: the battle ground we see a ten point gender gap
Speaker 6: in early voting so far. That is really encouraging because
Speaker 6: we know that it's a diverse coalition of women that
Speaker 6: are going to deliver a win up and down the
Speaker 6: ballot for Democrats, starting with Kamala Harris, and we know
Speaker 6: that those women are voting on the issue of reproduction.
Speaker 1: Rya, I want you to talk about the volunteers you've
Speaker 1: seen with volunteers on the ground, because I think that's
Speaker 1: really important.
Speaker 6: Absolutely. I mean, I, like I said, I'm here in
Speaker 6: Las Vegas about it. Today. We had a standing room
Speaker 6: only crowd, very heavily female crowd in attendance, showing up
Speaker 6: to rally for reproductive freedom, but not just a rally
Speaker 6: for reproductive freedom. The reason they were there is because
Speaker 6: they are volunteers, and they're the steadbath volunteers out there
Speaker 6: knocking on the doors, making the phone calls. It's cooled
Speaker 6: off a little bit here in Las Vegas, but I
Speaker 6: was here a couple of weeks ago. We had the
Speaker 6: same type of turnout in one hundred degree heat. Basically
Speaker 6: people showing up ready to do the work because they're
Speaker 6: so motivated. Selection last week, I was in Rochester, Michigan,
Speaker 6: which is a purple part of the state. It's a
Speaker 6: really important part of the state in terms of the
Speaker 6: path to victory statewide and for targeted races at all
Speaker 6: levels of the ballot, and we had again standing room
Speaker 6: only crowd full of women really energized both to hear
Speaker 6: what we had to say, but then also to go
Speaker 6: from there and take a walk, packet or take a
Speaker 6: phone shift do the work. So the energy and the
Speaker 6: excitement that we see among women in particular across the battlegrounds,
Speaker 6: and I would say even drilling down a little bit
Speaker 6: young women across the battlegrounds, which you know we define
Speaker 6: as forty five and under.
Speaker 2: I like that.
Speaker 6: It's really incredible. Yeah, I have six more months or
Speaker 6: it makes me really happy. You know, the vibes in
Speaker 6: DC are anxious, but the vibes on the ground and
Speaker 6: battle ground states are energetic.
Speaker 1: So yes, it seems like there's some information out of
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania now that Trump is struggling with older voters.
Speaker 2: Those were the voters.
Speaker 1: That he had sort of lost in twenty twenty from
Speaker 1: COVID and it seems like they have maybe not come
Speaker 1: back to him.
Speaker 6: That's right, And I mean, I think one thing that's
Speaker 6: really important to think about when you think about those
Speaker 6: older voters, especially older women, that we have seen in
Speaker 6: the polling data, is that they remember a time when
Speaker 6: these ripe for a risk, and they have that history
Speaker 6: and so or where these rights didn't exist and they
Speaker 6: are now watching in horror as their granddaughters and daughters
Speaker 6: are fighting the fi that they thought was one. We
Speaker 6: really do see a lot of opportunity with those older
Speaker 6: voters sixty five and over. We have seen that, as
Speaker 6: you said, in Pennsylvania, they Democrats aged over sixty five
Speaker 6: have outloaded Republicans. And then we also just see across
Speaker 6: if you look at every age demographic and across race,
Speaker 6: across geography, women voters are breaking for Kapla Harris in
Speaker 6: this real way, and so we look at you. There
Speaker 6: was a full last week that had her with a
Speaker 6: nine point lead among suburban women, and we had full
Speaker 6: among young voters to where she leads by twenty points
Speaker 6: young women voters. And so it's those metrics when we
Speaker 6: look at kind of any different bucket, we are seeing that,
Speaker 6: particularly for women, they are rallying around the Vice president.
Speaker 6: They are energized by her, and they are rejecting this
Speaker 6: politics of hate and division and a platform that is
Speaker 6: going to deny us our rights for a generation to cop.
Speaker 1: At least where else have you been in what other
Speaker 1: Senate candidates have you been sort of involved with in
Speaker 1: the field.
Speaker 6: Absolutely so, I was in Michigan campaigning for a list
Speaker 6: of block ken in the Michigan center race. She too
Speaker 6: is a veteran of tough races and is in a
Speaker 6: really strong position in a battleground state. All of these
Speaker 6: races are going to be close, we just have to
Speaker 6: acknowledge that. But her candidacy has been really strong, again
Speaker 6: someone who has put the issue of reproductive freedom front
Speaker 6: and center. I am headed tonight to oh Claire, Wisconsin.
Speaker 6: The campaign for Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race. There
Speaker 6: another state Wisconsin that will be very very close, but
Speaker 6: where we have an opponent in Eric Hobdy who just
Speaker 6: recently said that young women were single issue voters and
Speaker 6: kind of, you know, in a disparaging way. That's an
Speaker 6: example of somebody, you know, we see this across the
Speaker 6: board with these Republican candidates who just really doesn't get it.
Speaker 6: It's not that young women are single issue voters. It's
Speaker 6: that we don't want to die. We don't want our
Speaker 6: friends to die, we don't want a relatives to die.
Speaker 6: They really are missing the mark in terms of understanding
Speaker 6: what's going on here. But those are all candidates who
Speaker 6: are in really strong positions heading into the final stretch,
Speaker 6: all of who are going to have extraordinarily tight margin.
Speaker 6: But we feel all optimistic about them because of both
Speaker 6: the strong candidacy they provided and also just the leadership
Speaker 6: of the centering of this fite for reproductive breedem.
Speaker 1: What I'm thinking about when I heard you talk at
Speaker 1: Harvard when we were on this panel, I thought, I've
Speaker 1: been on so much television and media and writing and
Speaker 1: reading so many pieces and listening to so many podcasts
Speaker 1: and women are really kind of not thought of as
Speaker 1: an important issue. We're sort of relegated to the back. Still,
Speaker 1: what I think is so interesting about this and we've
Speaker 1: seen so much coverage of Tromp and his conservatives and
Speaker 1: voters that might do this or do that, and just
Speaker 1: not a lot of coverage about all of these women
Speaker 1: who are pissed off about losing their rights.
Speaker 2: I'm sort of struck by that.
Speaker 1: And if in the end, and again we don't know
Speaker 1: what's going to happen, and anyone who tells you they
Speaker 1: do is really full of shit. But in the end,
Speaker 1: if women do deliver this victory for Harris, it is
Speaker 1: such an indictment of the way the mainstream media coppers politics.
Speaker 6: I couldn't agree more. And you know, I believe Look
Speaker 6: as an organization that was founded forty years ago by
Speaker 6: a generation of women who were pissed off that they
Speaker 6: were being desmits and not taking seriously. And to push
Speaker 6: women to the forefront, and to see women even to
Speaker 6: your point that we still don't necessarily have that coverage
Speaker 6: and that attention, but that they are driving this fight
Speaker 6: and driving these wins is really remarkable. And you know,
Speaker 6: one other thing I would say, is that it really
Speaker 6: matters sav a candidate like Vice President Kamala Harritz, who
Speaker 6: is meeting the moment in so many ways, but meeting
Speaker 6: this moment for women who are outraged, and she can
Speaker 6: say to them, on the foundation of an entire lifetime
Speaker 6: of fighting these fights, you know you're a bad I'm
Speaker 6: mad too, and we're here's something we're going to do
Speaker 6: about it. And the power of that is just really remarkable.
Speaker 6: And I think that is what is driving what we're
Speaker 6: seeing across this country right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I am a big Joe Biden fan,
Speaker 1: and I really appreciate all of the work he's done,
Speaker 1: and he's been just magnificent passing legislation, but he is
Speaker 1: not great at talking about abortion.
Speaker 6: Joe Biden did the most patriotic thing that a person
Speaker 6: can do, and as a testament to his leadership that
Speaker 6: he looked at this and said this is too important.
Speaker 6: It's bigger than me, and he handed the thought to
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris, who is our nation's strongest leader when it
Speaker 6: comes to the issue group production freedom. When you think
Speaker 6: about what it meant for her to bring abortion storytellers
Speaker 6: to the White House, what it meant for her to
Speaker 6: be the first vice president or president to visit an
Speaker 6: abortion clinic when a plan imparadheit clinic. And so the
Speaker 6: leadership that she provides on this issue is, like you said,
Speaker 6: it's built on a foundation of having done this work
Speaker 6: for entire life. And it really shows us in this
Speaker 6: moment the imperative around women's leadership and the imperative around
Speaker 6: having leaders like the Vice president who have done this
Speaker 6: work for a long time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's really important for me.
Speaker 1: When I was at the dm SEE in Chicago, what
Speaker 1: I was struck by was that almost not all of
Speaker 1: them because there were some older men, but most of
Speaker 1: the volunteers who were staffing were black women.
Speaker 6: Yeah, representation matters so much, and at this moment, you know,
Speaker 6: when we think about the moment we're in the fight
Speaker 6: for reproductive freedom. You can't talk about reproductive freedom in
Speaker 6: this country without talking about that in the context of
Speaker 6: the Black maternal health crisis. And so we know that
Speaker 6: whether it's reproductive freedom or so many other issues, the
Speaker 6: ramifications of policies that are adopted in Washington have different
Speaker 6: impact and often our short impact in communities of color
Speaker 6: for black women, and so to have women at the
Speaker 6: table of all backgrounds, bringing that into the conversation and
Speaker 6: leading these fights forward with these viewpoints and understanding what
Speaker 6: it means for various communities when we pass these policies,
Speaker 6: and particularly again when we pass policies that restrict our
Speaker 6: rights and our freedoms, we see that those outcomes are
Speaker 6: far worse in communities of color, and in particular for
Speaker 6: black women, And so it matters a lot. And I
Speaker 6: think you see then also black women have been the
Speaker 6: drivers of democratic wins for a very long time, and
Speaker 6: so it is also really important that we give that
Speaker 6: the recognition that it deserves and that they deserve.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in Georgia, can you talk to us just about
Speaker 1: what you think? Like there is a Warnock coalition that
Speaker 1: has come out like seventy five times to vote for
Speaker 1: him because get to run in primaries, in generals and runoffs.
Speaker 1: The architect of that war, Notock coalition, works for the
Speaker 1: Harris campaign. Now do you think that they aren't going
Speaker 1: to be able to turn out? Have you been to
Speaker 1: Georgia and what are you seeing in Georgia.
Speaker 6: I haven't been to Georgia in the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 6: but I have certainly been observing the numbers. I think
Speaker 6: we've seen that the state isn't played, and it's reflected
Speaker 6: in the visit from the Vice President and from other surrogates.
Speaker 6: The truth is that the Vice President has multiple paths
Speaker 6: to two seventy. That wasn't true several months ago. It
Speaker 6: is true now, and it is because of the type
Speaker 6: of candidate that she is in the leadership that she provides,
Speaker 6: and so Georgia's and play North Carolina's and play the
Speaker 6: Blue Wall is of course going to be very important.
Speaker 6: The fact that there are these multiple paths too two
Speaker 6: seventy is so critical because we know that these races
Speaker 6: are decided by often, you know, a handful of votes
Speaker 6: for precinct.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're going to go next to Wisconsin.
Speaker 6: Yep, So I do okare with Counsin tomorrow and then
Speaker 6: I head to Maryland. Emily has been involved with the
Speaker 6: effort to elect to Angela Alsobrooks the United States Senate
Speaker 6: from the very beginning of her campaign, and so I'm
Speaker 6: really excited to spend the last two days of the
Speaker 6: election campaigning with her. We were heavily involved in the
Speaker 6: primary and then again in this general election where she's
Speaker 6: running against a former Republican governor who had been pretending
Speaker 6: that he didn't like Donald Trump, and then we just
Speaker 6: found out he's bragging about an endorsement to donors in private,
Speaker 6: and so we know what's at stake theirs. I'll be
Speaker 6: finishing out the election campaigning with Angela and I'm really
Speaker 6: excited about her election. And you know you and I
Speaker 6: ha he talked about this when we saw each other recently.
Speaker 6: We have the opportunity in this election to double the
Speaker 6: number of Black women in the United States Senate. So
Speaker 6: with angel also broke through the Prince George's county executive
Speaker 6: in Maryland, and Lisa Blunt Rochester, who's a congresswoman from
Speaker 6: Delaware who's also someone we've supported throughout her career. They
Speaker 6: are both well positioned to win their Senate races. Angela's
Speaker 6: is still competitive, but we feel good about her race
Speaker 6: and we can in this one election cycle double the
Speaker 6: number of Black women and Senate now two people.
Speaker 2: We're not going to forty here, but it's progress.
Speaker 6: That's not enough, that's not an acceptable number, but it's progress.
Speaker 6: And like the Vice President, it shows that when we
Speaker 6: invest in and support these women candidates who are just
Speaker 6: incredible leaders that we can't make progress and we can
Speaker 6: do big things. And so the opportunity we have in
Speaker 6: front of us in these next four days is really incredible.
Speaker 6: The threat is real, the stakes are high, but the
Speaker 6: opportunity is there too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's so important.
Speaker 1: I really appreciate you taking the time, I'm on your
Speaker 1: way to Claire, Wisconsin to come on and talk to us.
Speaker 6: Really, thank you, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 4: A moment fuck.
Speaker 1: Rick Wellsen Molli Jong Fast, do you have a moment
Speaker 1: of fuckery?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 5: My moment of fuckery is the absolutely astounding degree to
Speaker 5: which Elon Musk the richest man in the world, and
Speaker 5: some people think he's a genius of some kind. How badly,
Speaker 5: a group of consultants from Ron De Santis's world took
Speaker 5: Elon Musk out to dinner, liquered him up, took him
Speaker 5: out behind the barn, spanked him, took his wallet, left
Speaker 5: him buck naked at the bus stop. These people have
Speaker 5: fucked him for one hundred million dollars. One hundred million
Speaker 5: or more dollars. This is the most astounding political scam
Speaker 5: in the history of mankind. Elon has been sold.
Speaker 4: A pig in a poke a bill of goods.
Speaker 5: He has bought into the idea that these people were
Speaker 5: actually with their hobo army out knocked looking on doors.
Speaker 4: They weren't. This is I mean.
Speaker 5: If Elon doesn't sue these fuckers for all that they're
Speaker 5: worth and take back the one hundred million plus he's
Speaker 5: paid them, he is a damn fool. That is my
Speaker 5: moment of fuckery.
Speaker 1: My moment of fuckery is Donald trump fulating a microphone.
Speaker 1: You may not have seen this video if you're not
Speaker 1: very online. On Friday, he was on a rally, his
Speaker 1: microphone stopped working. He pantomimed fallatio on the microphone. I
Speaker 1: am a person who grew up in New York City
Speaker 1: in the eighties. My mother wrote erotic novels, and I
Speaker 1: have never seen anything like that in my life. Like,
Speaker 1: I literally have never seen a person pretend to fulate
Speaker 1: a microphone, let alone a presidential candidate.
Speaker 2: It is an image I kind of get out of
Speaker 2: my head. It was shocking. A lot of mainstream media
Speaker 2: is not.
Speaker 1: Covering it because it's so disgusting, but there are endless
Speaker 1: videos of it.
Speaker 4: And it all deserves a soundtrack of its own that
Speaker 4: goes like this.
Speaker 1: Oh, theyre always elevating the discourse.
Speaker 4: Rick Wilson, I am here to make the discourse sing.
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly.
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in
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Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.