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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman and I am going to be

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Speaker 1: joined by Professional Better Simon Hunter. Folks, we have done

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Speaker 1: something I do not recommend. I do not recommend it

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Speaker 1: unless unless you happen to be working with someone who

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Speaker 1: knows what he is doing, who manages bankroll like Warren Buffett,

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Speaker 1: who sees the future like Nostra dam As, someone who

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Speaker 1: has the patience of a preschool teacher and a temperament

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Speaker 1: to match. Only then should you do what Simon and

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Speaker 1: I have done, which is if you have not listened

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Speaker 1: to the podcast. We took one in the Draft Kings

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Speaker 1: Pro Football pick Um contest and decided not to cash

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Speaker 1: it out, not to play it safe, not to put

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Speaker 1: the money in the bank. We decided to roll it

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Speaker 1: over people. We rolled it over into Week seventeen. We

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Speaker 1: had so many games that we loved. We chose five.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about how we did with those five,

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Speaker 1: plus so much more. It was another winning week. It

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Speaker 1: was another week of giving away money. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Professional Better has joined me on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: All season long. We made five peaks every five picks

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Speaker 1: every week in the draft Kings Pro Football pick him

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Speaker 1: National Championship to win one million dollars. We came in four.

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Speaker 1: We won that. We decided to keep making the five

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Speaker 1: picks every week and share them with you. Simon, my man,

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Speaker 1: my companion, How do we do this weekend? Jeff, Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the playoffs, my friend, show that never ends. My man.

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Speaker 1: It was a long season. We made it to the

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Speaker 1: playoffs the NFL. We didn't miss any weeks. Man, They

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Speaker 1: just plowed along teams and that you had COVID. You

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Speaker 1: had COVID and we played through it. Yeah. Actually, and

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Speaker 1: I saved my girlfriend's cat. So I'm not only a survivor,

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Speaker 1: I'm a hero. So just a good the opposite. You're

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Speaker 1: the You're the opposite of Dwight Shrew. Yeah, exactly. I

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Speaker 1: like that. I don't want to be the downer to

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Speaker 1: the show. But yeah, basically, I put a decent amount

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Speaker 1: of money we had on ball State, and uh, they

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Speaker 1: want uncovered for us. So we went into Sunday having

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Speaker 1: I think it was five thousand, four hundred eighty nine dollars,

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Speaker 1: And I told you from the get go, I was

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Speaker 1: gonna put a thousand on the side for me and you.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna put Matt Mitchell's four hundred on the side,

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Speaker 1: and I was gonna do a couple of futures for us.

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Speaker 1: So I did a hundred on the Bears, which would

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Speaker 1: pay us. I think, what is it ten thousand if

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Speaker 1: they win the Super Bowl? That's how uh that's how

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Speaker 1: long shot the Bears are. And then I did for

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Speaker 1: a good friend, Matt Mitchell. We had a three hundred

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Speaker 1: dollar bet we got from Draft Kings for going five

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Speaker 1: and how I took that. I took that and I

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Speaker 1: put it on a Packers and Bills future for Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell because man Mitchell said he only had one game.

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Speaker 1: The headge I said, you know what, my man will

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Speaker 1: We'll do our free bet. So that's a hundred to win.

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Speaker 1: I'll have to check. I think it was a thousand,

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Speaker 1: four hundred. And now if we do it, if you

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Speaker 1: did the same exact, better be a hundred to win.

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Speaker 1: I think like a thousand a hundred. So that's how

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Speaker 1: much the odds have dropped for Green Bay and the Bills.

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Speaker 1: I'm stupid, you're smart, you're very good looking. I'm not attractive.

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Speaker 1: And then it did another uh to fifty on the

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Speaker 1: bills that win the Super Bowl. I think at plus

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Speaker 1: nine hundred or nine fifty. So we did a couple

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Speaker 1: of futures and then I had the rest left over

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Speaker 1: to play with. Um this weekend. I looked at it

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Speaker 1: as we have one week here. I had one weekend

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Speaker 1: to try to make big money for us, and you're

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Speaker 1: not gonna just do that. Like my favorite bet of

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Speaker 1: the weekend was the Ramps, Like we talked about that

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Speaker 1: at plus three. We love that number. So yeah, if

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Speaker 1: this was a normal week I just would have put

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Speaker 1: like two thousand five or whatever on Ramps and we

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Speaker 1: just would have just doubled that up. But we were

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Speaker 1: looking at it like let's just go for it. Let's

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Speaker 1: let's try to win twenty tho dollars in a weekend.

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Speaker 1: And I basically just did a bunch of round robin

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Speaker 1: money line plays for so if you if you have

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Speaker 1: a chance to win that much money, and these games

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Speaker 1: finished like they did, I I like, luckily I didn't

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Speaker 1: tell you how much I'd put on it, but you

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Speaker 1: were you were hurting because you knew that we had

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Speaker 1: their money lines. But I was literally dead inside Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: So I was I couldn't. I literally died on my

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Speaker 1: brother's couch. I melted into his couch and I just died.

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Speaker 1: Because we had the Denver money line, in the Houston

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Speaker 1: money line, and the forty nine money line. All those

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Speaker 1: games came down to pretty much the final minute or

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds of the game of us not covering those

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Speaker 1: teams money lines. I texted you the Houston Denver games,

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Speaker 1: not even the forty game included. Just the Houston Denver

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Speaker 1: game was about a ten thousand dollar flip for me

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Speaker 1: and you because basically those round robins, instead of going

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Speaker 1: two and three, we wouldn't. We would have went four

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Speaker 1: and one in these money line round robin And oh god,

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Speaker 1: the Denver game was one of these games where the

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Speaker 1: coach maybe he was tanking it he's or maybe is

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Speaker 1: this dumb? But Oakland had a situation where they had

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Speaker 1: no time outs and there was twenty seconds left in

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Speaker 1: the clock and it was running and it was fourth

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Speaker 1: and one. The Denver coach called a time out. They score.

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Speaker 1: Now it's all craziness because they're Oakland switching players. Raiders

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Speaker 1: of Vegas are switching players in and out to get

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Speaker 1: the right players on for the two point conversion, the

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Speaker 1: guy calls another time out on Denver, like, so now

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Speaker 1: he has no time outs left in case his team

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Speaker 1: does need a field goal, and they convert and of

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Speaker 1: course they get the two point. He is horrible. He

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Speaker 1: kicks a field goal nine seconds left on the clock.

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Speaker 1: The Denver coach, so they I'm pretty sure they were

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Speaker 1: tanking that. The Houston one was sickening because that I

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Speaker 1: love that position because we're playing a team that they

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Speaker 1: don't have a first round pick, they don't have a

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Speaker 1: second round pick. Houston wants to win. They're just that bad.

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Speaker 1: They can't win, and we're playing against the Tennessee team

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Speaker 1: that was just desperate. So I like the plus seven

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Speaker 1: that was the last pick out for us for the

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Speaker 1: for the slate on Sunday. Um. But I took the

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Speaker 1: money line for them, which was a big payer. It

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Speaker 1: was like to seventy or two fifty. And when you

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Speaker 1: have that paiod with other teams that are plus one

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Speaker 1: forty plus one twenty, that's like one, you know, ten

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Speaker 1: to one odds, that's plus a thousand odds usually in

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Speaker 1: these money line parlays. So yeah, buddy, we went for it.

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Speaker 1: We we went for the twenty K payout. Uh. Luckily,

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Speaker 1: we still made two thousand dollars this weekend, so we

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Speaker 1: took four thousand, two hundred we turned into six thousand,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and we have these other future bets um

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Speaker 1: for the playoffs. So on all it it hurts that

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Speaker 1: we went for We had good reads, like we talked

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Speaker 1: about these. All these games we took came down the

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Speaker 1: final plays like the forty niners. One was just a

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Speaker 1: sick name and it just didn't break for us. But

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Speaker 1: I'm happy we still have our money. We won, which

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Speaker 1: is what I wanted in the end, and we made

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Speaker 1: a little profit to play with here in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So it was fun. It was a fun day. It was.

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Speaker 1: It was a fun day, and we did think so

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Speaker 1: with our final five picks for the week, accepting the

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Speaker 1: money line and the money line around Robins or whatever. Um.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I'm doing this downstairs in our

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Speaker 1: office on the first floor instead of normally where I

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Speaker 1: do it on the third floor, and my wife, who

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Speaker 1: usually works in this office is behind me right now

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Speaker 1: and I have the airpot in Thank god she didn't

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Speaker 1: hear that. Like, we were close to winning ten K

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Speaker 1: or twenty k because that would be and she's not

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Speaker 1: even listening to me now, so it's it's it's on point,

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Speaker 1: and that she won't listen to the podcast and she's

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Speaker 1: not listening to me as I speak directly behind her.

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Speaker 1: But the point is we had five picks. We like

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Speaker 1: the Bears, that was a bummer. We liked um, the Giants,

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Speaker 1: the Panthers, which was a bummer. That we honored Teddy Bridgewater.

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Speaker 1: He did not He did not honor us back. We

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Speaker 1: thought about the forty niners a lot. They were they

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Speaker 1: were one of the teams that we love. We decided

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Speaker 1: to leave him out and we went with the other teams,

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Speaker 1: the Giants, who did exactly giant things and our trust

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Speaker 1: was finally rewarded. And congrats to you because that was

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Speaker 1: our big balls better the week. As soon as we

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Speaker 1: talked about that game last week, you're like, this is

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Speaker 1: where you fade the Cowboys, And it was the exact

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Speaker 1: right spot. The Giants had a dismal third quarter, like

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Speaker 1: everything that could go wrong for them in the third quarter,

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Speaker 1: interception on the opening drive, Cowboys immediately go down and score.

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Speaker 1: They had so many penalties, like they let the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: back in the game. Then they then they fumbled on

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Speaker 1: the last player of the game where they had broken

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Speaker 1: a run to just see a little victory whatever. The

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Speaker 1: Giants win the Broncos that Jerry Judy catch for ninety

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Speaker 1: two yards. I'm watching that. I'm like, this is amazing.

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Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, the Raiders are scoring.

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Speaker 1: And it didn't matter for us at that point because

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Speaker 1: if they went for the two, we were gonna win

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Speaker 1: or lose. Um and then what was our third win?

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Speaker 1: I already forgot, Like the Rams rams are never in doubt.

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Speaker 1: It's so weird. Though, here's what's sting. So the Rams

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Speaker 1: open to three point dogs. And this is before the

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray news everything else. Every single wise Guy, every

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Speaker 1: single person in your business was on the Rams of

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Speaker 1: plus three moving the number, not plus two plus one.

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Speaker 1: Pick you know. On Sunday morning, I'm talking with Shawn

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Speaker 1: Corner on Convinced Me eleven AM at Action Network HQ.

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Speaker 1: He's like, I like the Rams all the way up

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Speaker 1: to minus three. How does that happen? How does like

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Speaker 1: every wise guy see something that that the bookmakers got

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Speaker 1: so wrong? Cliff Kingsbury a couple of different things. It's

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Speaker 1: like we talked on here. I wasn't trying to put

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Speaker 1: down Jared Golf, but the guy is literally just worth

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Speaker 1: nothing to my model because he's just seriously player. You

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Speaker 1: plug in, you can run a system. I get why

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Speaker 1: they hung the three like they had it up to

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Speaker 1: three and a half. There were something some books had

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Speaker 1: six because it was like all fluctuated and they didn't

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Speaker 1: really know what to do with the market. That was

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Speaker 1: one of those that we talked about. The coaching mismatch

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Speaker 1: is what really just stood out to me. People have

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Speaker 1: talked all year Cliff Cliff is a favorite, has not

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Speaker 1: been good like we have. The only game he's covered

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Speaker 1: as when we took in a competition, which was the

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Speaker 1: Eagles game, which they only covered because the Eagles mission

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Speaker 1: extra point. Hey, this is Matt Mitchell, your producer and

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Speaker 1: number one Cliff Kingsbury haters, stepping in to remind listeners

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Speaker 1: that Cliff Kingsbury has been a head coach since and

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Speaker 1: that Cliff Kingsbury sucks. And here is how he has

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Speaker 1: ended every season since. He lost five of six. The

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Speaker 1: next year, four of five. Next season, he lost four

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Speaker 1: of his last six. The next two seasons, he lost

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Speaker 1: six of his last eighteen, he lost all of his

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Speaker 1: last five. Last year he lost seven of his last nine,

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Speaker 1: and this year he lost six of his last nine.

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Speaker 1: With one hail mary win Cliff Kingsbury belongs in the

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Speaker 1: trash can. It was one of those where it just

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Speaker 1: lined up perfectly, and like we talked my my two

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Speaker 1: favorite bets where the Rams and the Giants, and I

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Speaker 1: also loved the Bills. But it did get scary with

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Speaker 1: that line movement because the sharps were pounding that. I

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Speaker 1: was like, I don't know what they're seeing here taking

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Speaker 1: to a on the road in a must win game.

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Speaker 1: But it was It was definitely a week where I

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Speaker 1: talked about how there's games I really love and we

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Speaker 1: switched it out because what I was trying to give

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Speaker 1: people on Sunday, which end up Backfriankers, was never any questions,

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Speaker 1: well would you take Arizona plus four here and all

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Speaker 1: these different things because they had the lines early in

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Speaker 1: the week for their contest. I love the Chargers and

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Speaker 1: I loved the minus three and a half and I

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Speaker 1: we talked about how much value I saw there, and

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Speaker 1: so we had that on Saturday. I switched that out.

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Speaker 1: It didn't matter because we switched it out for Denver anyway,

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Speaker 1: which covered. But it was one of those weeks where

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Speaker 1: you don't see movement like that on normal weeks, like

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Speaker 1: six point swings from Saturday to Sunday and different things

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Speaker 1: like that, and these sharps, a lot of them. They

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Speaker 1: misread some of these games terribly, like that that Miami

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Speaker 1: one really stuck out, where millions and millions and millions

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Speaker 1: of dollars was just coming in heavy on Miami and

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Speaker 1: it was great. You were able to get the bills

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Speaker 1: at plus three and a half and plus one eighty

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Speaker 1: on the money line in some books. So it was

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Speaker 1: definitely an interesting week. But it was one of those

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Speaker 1: where I got slaughtered on totals. Like I usually give

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Speaker 1: out totals on Twitter, and I had a good year

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Speaker 1: given them. I think I was like sixty five sixty

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Speaker 1: six percent for the whole season giving them out on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: and I didn't give out any just from simple fact

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Speaker 1: on my model was really fluctuated. Where I had these

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Speaker 1: games is really good value for unders or overs, and

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Speaker 1: the line was way off, and I said, either I'm

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Speaker 1: misreading this terribly or this is a week where I

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Speaker 1: just need to pass. Like on these totals and I didn't.

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Speaker 1: I bet them and I got slaughtered. Like I had

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Speaker 1: the under in the forty Niners and Seahawks game, I

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Speaker 1: think they scored like twenty one points in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: Brutal had the under in the Browns game at forty two.

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Speaker 1: Hodges or whoever was the key quarterback through a touchdown

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Speaker 1: the b end of the game that went over. So

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Speaker 1: it was one of those weeks where and depending what

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Speaker 1: you were playing it, it was. It was a horrible, horrible,

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Speaker 1: horrible week. But like you just said, we went three

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Speaker 1: and two, which is what we are. Maybe we're we'll

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Speaker 1: make you rich. That's where we live. So again, three

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Speaker 1: and two for the week. I try not to complain

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Speaker 1: that that's a good week. I can't complain. And that's that,

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Speaker 1: you know what, you have the exact right attitude. We're

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Speaker 1: not going to think about the ten thousand we could

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Speaker 1: have won. We're gonna we're gonna appreciate the hundred we

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Speaker 1: did win, and that gives us even more to roll

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Speaker 1: over into the playoffs, where we are going to talk

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Speaker 1: about sides and because there are only six games, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about totals, and um, we're gonna find ways

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Speaker 1: to eke out some winners again. We are bringing back

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Speaker 1: the cash fueled phrase that pays contest. We are giving

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Speaker 1: a lucky listener one hundred dollars for every game we

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Speaker 1: win this week, and we are giving an equal amount

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Speaker 1: to the charity of the winner's choice. New rules on

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Speaker 1: how to enter. There are new rules, So be listening

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Speaker 1: right now. Go follow, Go follow at the Favorites Pod

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Speaker 1: and send us your submission for this year's gambling m VP.

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Speaker 1: Which player which player from the NFL was your gambling

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Speaker 1: m v P tag at the Favorites Pod when you

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Speaker 1: sent in the submission. Matt Mitchell has volunteered to go

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Speaker 1: through every submission that comes in. I hope there are

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Speaker 1: hundreds and hundreds and hundreds. You will randomly choose it.

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Speaker 1: You will win the money. Everything we discussed, every pick,

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Speaker 1: we make, all the data. It's all available on the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's free, it's award winning. Go downloaded

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Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. If you were in the Action Network app,

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Speaker 1: if you were following Simon Hunter, and also if you're

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Speaker 1: following me, by the way, I'm putting the picks in

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Speaker 1: under my name as well. Um, you would have seen

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Speaker 1: the five picks that we made, you would have been

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Speaker 1: able to go three and two. You would have felt

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Speaker 1: exuberant over your wins. We also had the Washington football

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Speaker 1: team minus one and a half UM, so that was

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Speaker 1: really good. Yeah, and it was just fun that we

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Speaker 1: ended the year doing exactly what got us to this point,

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Speaker 1: just taking these ugly teams, like the fact that we

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Speaker 1: ended the year taking Den from the Giants, two teams

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Speaker 1: you swore off and you said you refuse to play,

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Speaker 1: and I was able to get you to play both

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Speaker 1: of them. Uh, come Sunday. That's just the business. That's

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Speaker 1: what Like I wanted to do this with you and

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Speaker 1: try to teach people that it's not fun. But none

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Speaker 1: of this is fun. Like when you even if you

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Speaker 1: have these teams like this Sunday, you tease these teams

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Speaker 1: down the minus six, these big favorites or whatever, it's

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Speaker 1: always a sweat. It's never not a sweat. So that's

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Speaker 1: what I'm trying to teach people. You take these ugly dogs,

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Speaker 1: you take their money lines. You will just profit so

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Speaker 1: much to just taking these favorites where you're just I

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Speaker 1: don't want to sweat this game. I just want to

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Speaker 1: take Aaron Rodgers first, Mitch Drabinsky. It's gonna work out

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Speaker 1: for you, but it's not gonna pay you better than

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Speaker 1: a fift clip. That's why these books are so sharp.

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Speaker 1: They don't just give away money, so it's a learning experience.

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Speaker 1: Like the Home Dogs. They're not always gonna come three

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Speaker 1: for you, but when they do, you just feel like

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Speaker 1: a genius because no one else saw it coming. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna try to carry it over into this week here,

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Speaker 1: Honest to God, brother, that's where we missed our opportunity.

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Speaker 1: And we talked about us at the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: like those last two weeks. We made the right calls.

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Speaker 1: We didn't get emotional, we didn't say they were teams

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Speaker 1: off the table. We bet the right numbers, the right side,

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Speaker 1: the right precedence, the right histories, the right trends, all

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Speaker 1: the stuff that you're supposed to do. We did those

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Speaker 1: last two weeks, and we went eight and two, and

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Speaker 1: it's the stuff that we had done earlier in the year,

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Speaker 1: and we had those weeks in the middle. We're like,

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Speaker 1: we just got tight and we went back to basics,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna keep rolling with that. We're gonna keep

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Speaker 1: rolling with that, we got the big balls bet of

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Speaker 1: the week. We got our hornets Nest bet. We got

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Speaker 1: our foxhole bet. Don't forget hornets nest is a bet

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Speaker 1: that how did I define it again? Hold on, let

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Speaker 1: me let me think hornets nest completely unattractive bet. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to do it. That is that is Denver

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Speaker 1: the foxhold. That is the unpopular bet. Very nuanced difference,

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Speaker 1: but that's what betting is. Betting can be ugly and nuanced. Sometimes.

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Speaker 1: Colts on the road at everybody's favorite, the Buffalo bills, Hey,

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Speaker 1: let's go, let's go. The bills. Make me wanna the

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Speaker 1: spread right now? With six and a half, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of money coming in from the wise guys on

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Speaker 1: the colts, the total fifty two and a half down

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Speaker 1: to fifty and a half. We had the bills in

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Speaker 1: and I told you I need to. I gotta get

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Speaker 1: better at where I just don't read people's messengeres. I

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Speaker 1: try not to, but like I want to respond to

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Speaker 1: people if they're being nice to me, you know, like

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Speaker 1: that's part of the business. But the haters, man, the

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Speaker 1: haters are the ones that really ring in your head.

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Speaker 1: And people were just burying us for liking the Bills

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Speaker 1: last week, and I was just like, all right, maybe

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Speaker 1: like maybe these people are right. The sharps are coming

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Speaker 1: in on Miami. Maybe I'm misreading the Bills. Come on,

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Speaker 1: what you're gonna donna be what you're gonna donna. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna let it happen again this week. It would

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Speaker 1: be a trap. Maybe they're laying a trap for me

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Speaker 1: here because this is such a teasable number, you can

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Speaker 1: tease it down to a pick now. But I love

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Speaker 1: the Bills. And this is one of these games where

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Speaker 1: last year Josh Allen, he kind of fell apart in Houston.

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Speaker 1: They were up big and he collapsed. Houston came back

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Speaker 1: and won that game, and this will be the same

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Speaker 1: kind of game to me, where maybe the Colts will

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Speaker 1: get all quick and then the Bills will just come

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Speaker 1: back and they'll beat them, because we've seen the Colts

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Speaker 1: just aren't a good team in the second half. But

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Speaker 1: when I'm looking at this game, I like the Bills

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Speaker 1: at minus six and a half. And if you really

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Speaker 1: do like the Colts, don't take the seven. Just take

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Speaker 1: the money line, because if this isn't gonna be one

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Speaker 1: of these games that they're going to cover that number.

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Speaker 1: I could just see the Colts either getting steam rolled

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Speaker 1: or winning this game out right. So personally, I'm on

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Speaker 1: the Bill side. We have futures on the Bills. I

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Speaker 1: don't see the Bills laying egg here at home, in

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Speaker 1: front of a home crowd at a one pm start.

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Speaker 1: That's just this just stands out as a game the

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Speaker 1: Bills are going to roll the Colts. So I like

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Speaker 1: the Bills here at minus six and a half. This

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Speaker 1: is really interesting because I agree with you and the

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Speaker 1: Bills have confounded expectations this year. Ever since they sort

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Speaker 1: of laid that egg against Tennessee in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the year and that random sort of COVID suspended game, um,

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Speaker 1: they've continued to get better and better. And like Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen's accuracy has been fine, his ability to read defenses

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Speaker 1: this has been great. The play calling has been unbelievable,

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Speaker 1: Like this has just been a solid all around team

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Speaker 1: they're coaching overall has been great. But one thing that

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Speaker 1: scares me, I'm not saying I don't like it, but

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Speaker 1: one thing that's scared is going to be one of

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Speaker 1: our five picks between the twelve that we can choose

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Speaker 1: from which with side and totals, I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: Frank Rank is really good and this defense can be

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Speaker 1: more than serviceable. Like their stats are really good, I

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00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: don't think they're dynamic. And Jonathan Taylor, like the Bill's

398
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Speaker 1: rush defense has not been amazing, and Jonathan Taylor has

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Speaker 1: been lights out the past month. So I am a

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00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,440
Speaker 1: little bit nervous about ways in which they can keep

401
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: this game close. And seven is a decent sized number.

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00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: Tell me why I shouldn't be worried about these things.

403
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: I mean, I could spend it a million different ways,

404
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,919
Speaker 1: but the main reason just because my number thinks this

405
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: is good. If I had this, I have this at seven.

406
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Speaker 1: It's six and a half right after the Bills. I

407
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 1: think we're getting value on it. Okay, yeah, if you

408
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: want me to tell you we got the Colts and

409
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 1: indoor team going outdoor, it's gonna be cold like all

410
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: that noise, But it's simply it's just simple numbers where

411
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 1: I know it's gonna be the Truk side. I know

412
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna have the Bills and their moneyline parties, but

413
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: I don't think this is the game that trips up

414
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 1: those moneyline parties. So I like this number with the bills,

415
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: and I can't I can't tell people to take an

416
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,239
Speaker 1: under on the bills because every game they play they

417
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 1: just go over. But like you said, that's a high number,

418
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 1: and it's been coming down because it's it's late. I

419
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: mean it's early January. We expect weather up in New York.

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00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 1: So right now, early in the week, I would lean

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00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,880
Speaker 1: towards the under. Uh, this is one of these games

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Speaker 1: I'll have to wait for the weather report before I

423
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: had bet it, you know what I mean. I I

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00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 1: can't play this number. So it's gonna be a rough

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Speaker 1: morning for your boy. This is my birthday actually January nine,

426
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 1: no way, Yeah, So hopefully I'm not too hunger. I

427
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 1: can wake up early Saturday morning. I can make the

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00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: right choices on my birthday. So I do like the

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00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 1: bills here, dude, early January birthday. I love that for you.

430
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: You get to celebrate right after New Year's Eve. That's fantastic,

431
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 1: all right. It's a fun two and a half weeks.

432
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: You know, it's a great two and a half weeks

433
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 1: for you. And it's too bad. It's too bad you

434
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 1: had such a bad year betting otherwise you could really

435
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: go out and celebrate. Yeah right, all right, So that

436
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: was the early game on Saturday. What a great weekend.

437
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 1: It's going to be Saturday four pm game Rams, Actually late?

438
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 1: Is that a late game? Now? It's about four pm

439
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: RAMS visiting Seahawks. Rams plus four total is forty two

440
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: and a half. Shaping up to be a prose Joe's game. Yeah,

441
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: pros on the Rams. Joe's on the Seahawks. And that's

442
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: just this is a sharp game where sharp you just

443
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: play the RAM side because it's a two teams that

444
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 1: I've played each other now twice. McVeigh has always played

445
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: the Seahawks really well. Usually he beats them. This year

446
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: it's been a little different where the Seahawks have actually

447
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: beat them. But I'm all in on the Seahawks. I mean,

448
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: we could get into it, but that's my team, sleeper

449
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: team the NFC, so I think is gonna come out

450
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: and playing the Super Bowl. I I love teams that

451
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: everyone's off because they haven't been beating teams by enough

452
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 1: points to them, and they haven't been covering enough numbers

453
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 1: for them, and people are just off the Seahawks, like literally,

454
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have jumped them now as a favorite in

455
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: the NFC's like they're the fourth team now even though

456
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: there's three seed, and I love that. I love teams

457
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 1: that can know how to win ugly games close and

458
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. I love these kind of teams. With

459
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Yeah, maybe they might not cover this number.

460
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 1: They might only win by three, because that's just what

461
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 1: they do. They play teams ugly. But I love it.

462
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: Everyone's down the Seahawks offense right now and they don't

463
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: really get how well this defense has played. So that's

464
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 1: made Down kind of change their identity as not a

465
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: team that's just gonna throw it downfield, because they're just

466
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 1: gonna play slow and play smart and just wear you

467
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 1: out and eventually beat it into the game. So looking

468
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 1: at this number, I feel bad telling people to go

469
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 1: against my brothren in the Sharps, but I'm all in

470
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, and I like it that it's down

471
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: at some books down to three and a half now

472
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: because the Sharps have come in so heavy on the Rams.

473
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: That can im making his second start of his career

474
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: on the road in the playoffs unless this guy is

475
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: a robot for the Rams. This guy is gonna have

476
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 1: a complete meltdown in this game. So for me, I

477
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: love the Seahawks in the position and the fact that

478
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 1: the Sharps are I've been this number down it makes

479
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: me feel a little better because I means I'll maybe

480
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: get good value on the Seahawks. Hopefully it hits three.

481
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: So we know for a fact that Golf is out.

482
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: We don't we we really don't. Maybe that's why it's

483
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: betting that down. Maybe they know something and that's why

484
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: the numbers coming down now. But Golf just got thumb

485
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: surgery and I don't like it. Honestly, if I was

486
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: betting the Rams, i'd feel better if this backup is coming,

487
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: because I don't think it's smart when players rushed back

488
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: like this. Like we saw Kyler Murray last week. He

489
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: was out in two series, he took one hit and

490
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: he was just done. So I don't like back in

491
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 1: these hurt quarterbacks. But you never know, like Stafford played

492
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: hell of a game last week hurt and they covered

493
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: that game. So to each his own. But if if

494
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: it's Jared Golf, I would definitely be even more in

495
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: favor of the Seahawks. Chris Raybon will tell you if

496
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: you listen to the Action Network NFL podcast, he always

497
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 1: loves the Rams in this spot because these games are

498
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: always less than a field goal. UM, And Sean McVeigh

499
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: is such a good coach. And look, the Rams have

500
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: completely changed who they are offensively where you've mentioned golf,

501
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: but the quarterback just means less in their in their

502
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: game plan, in their system week to week, like they

503
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: have become a physical, run first offense and a very

504
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: aggressive defense. UM. But I kind of love your take

505
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, so I can totally be convinced on

506
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. In fact, all of a sudden, I feel

507
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 1: better about the Seahawks than I do the Bills. And

508
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: and I'm kind of wondering, why didn't you take any

509
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 1: of our hard earned winnings and put it on the

510
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: Seahawks to win the Super Bowl? I will, I'm waiting

511
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 1: for this number to keep getting bet up like I

512
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: have them, and uh, we have them with what is

513
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 1: the Chiefs as a Super Bowl finalist? And I should

514
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: have just waited because we would have got better odds

515
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: if I did, because I did it last week like

516
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: where I did it for um, I did the Bills

517
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: one for us and and things like that. But I

518
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: only did a hundred on it, like I didn't want

519
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: to put too much into these futures yet because I

520
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: wanted more bank roll for Week seventeen. So yeah, I can.

521
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,360
Speaker 1: I can revisit it um Right now, it's a plus

522
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: six hundred on DraftKings. If they could get the seven

523
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 1: eight hundred, I'm gonna pounce on it because right now

524
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 1: the road map for them is they beat this Rams team,

525
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: hopefully with a backup quarterback, and then they go play

526
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 1: the Saints. And what have we've seen for about four

527
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: straight years now with the Saints at home in the playoffs.

528
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 1: They screw it up. They lose to these teams they

529
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: shouldn't be. They literally lost to Kirk Cousins last year

530
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: at home after they should have I mean that, I

531
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: don't think they've ever recovered from that Stefon dig sketch.

532
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: Like they literally went from that catch the next year

533
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 1: to the Rams and the p I to losing the

534
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: Kirk again at home. So if if I can have

535
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: a position where people are still believing in the Saints

536
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: because they have a great defense and they have Drew

537
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: Brees and a good old line in Comara that's where

538
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: I'm getting value, because that's that's where everyone's going right

539
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: Everyone's thinking maybe Green Bay will lose this and the

540
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: Saints can do it. But for me, it's just the

541
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 1: Seahawks lines up perfectly where they can go beat the Saints.

542
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: They'll go play Green Bay, which I think is a

543
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: really even matchup with both those quarterbacks. They're both just

544
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 1: so good in clutch performances that I love the value

545
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: are getting the Seahawks. So I'm on this week. I

546
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 1: can't doubt Chris Raybon, like tell you it's gonna be

547
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: a close game. I'm right there with that's how the

548
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: Seahawks play it. But I have so much faith in

549
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: this team that I just can't lay point. I can't

550
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 1: take the points with the Rams when I'm just so

551
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: all in on the Seahawks right now, what do you

552
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 1: have this game rated at? You said three and a half? No,

553
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: I had it at four. And the fact that it's

554
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: down to because when I opened up, I said, wow,

555
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: that's a good number right now for the Rams. The

556
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: four and a half for them, And the fact that

557
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: Sharps have just betted down now and it's three and a

558
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,479
Speaker 1: a half Undraftkings. It's just saying to me, it's flipped

559
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 1: now where I think you're getting good value of the Seahawks. So, dude,

560
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: here's what question. What are we waiting for? Let's get

561
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: the best of the number. It's three and a half.

562
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: Are we gonna wait till three? Do you think it's

563
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: gonna get to three? Or do we take it at

564
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: three and a half? Like we don't even have to

565
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: wait on contest on constant contest lines. So Chad, don't

566
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 1: get mad at me. I've already made a bunch of

567
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: bets for us. I don't want to know that. Here's

568
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 1: the thing. Listen, you're my money manager right now. You're

569
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: you do what you gotta do. You don't need me

570
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 1: to make the decisions. We're gonna go through the podcast,

571
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the games, we're gonna come up

572
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: with the five. Anything else you're doing, you gotta do

573
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: because you're in control of the money and you're the

574
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 1: professional and I'm just the client here. Okay, I want

575
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: to watch any at the end of it is possible.

576
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: I just wanted to play the early line values just

577
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: in case the lines went different ways than it did,

578
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 1: and like well, we can bring it another podcast. But

579
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: basically love doing money line part lays because the spread

580
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: just scares me in the playoffs because a lot of

581
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: weird stuff can happen, especially these favorites. So like early

582
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 1: lines we've got great value on. We have Pittsburgh's money

583
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 1: line at like one eight and now it's up to

584
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: to seventy nine because all the COVID news and we

585
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: got the Saints. I think the Saints opened at like, man,

586
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: it might have been minus seven or minus eight, so

587
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: the money line was like minus three. Now it's up

588
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: to like five hundred certain books. So it worked out

589
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: for me playing these early lines for us UM and

590
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: we'll we'll go through all the games. But yeah, for

591
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: this Seahawks Rams game, I'm on the under again. Uh

592
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: but after last week with the Seahawks forty Niners game,

593
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: I would not put this as our best five because

594
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 1: that that that under is gonna halt me forever because

595
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: you never know the Seahawks when they want to turn

596
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: it on, they can turn it on. So for me,

597
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: I'm playing this under by what of it is our

598
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: best five? The under forty three right now at Draftkicks.

599
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: The one thing we got to do. By the way,

600
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: before the end of the show last week, we said

601
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: we would tell people how we did with our Tuesday

602
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: picks versus what we ended up putting in, and we

603
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: forgot to do that. So at the end of the show,

604
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: just have that handy so we can tell people just

605
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 1: what our percentage was if we had gone with our

606
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: Tuesday picks. Um Bucks visiting the Washington football team that's

607
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: snuck in, although Ron Rivera deserves it for in Week three,

608
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: recognizing a Dwayne Haskins stinks. Be this division stinks. See

609
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: if I play a good quarterback or a mediocre quarterback

610
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: with the defense that I'm building, I got a chance,

611
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: a chance to win this division, to get to the playoffs.

612
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what he did. He did for his team.

613
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: What Doug Peterson did not do for his team, which is,

614
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: the guys are out there. These guys are out there

615
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: playing their hardest, trying to win, and I am going

616
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: to put the best players on the field in order

617
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: to do that. Doug Peterson had a different philosophy. That's fine,

618
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: and if that's how it's gonna go in Philly, that's cool.

619
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: The Bucks eight point favorites on the road at Washington unbelievable.

620
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 1: You're one of those people. You're on the giant side

621
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: of all these I'm on the side of competition and morality.

622
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: But that's said. That said, that said, I give a

623
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: fuck because we had one in minus one and a half.

624
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: So I was thrilled. I'm like, this is exactly what

625
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: you should do. And that's exactly why I was telling

626
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: people to take Even before the game started. I was saying,

627
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: whatever the number is, you take the the Washington football

628
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: team second half, just because Doug Peterson literally earlier in

629
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: the week said Nate Sudfeld was probably gonna get some

630
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: time in this game. And then all of a sudden,

631
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: all the defensive players were like, no, we're not playing either.

632
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 1: We're all sitting out like resting. So man, that was

633
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: a sharp number by the book, though the six and

634
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: a half they left it there and they knew somehow

635
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: that game is gonna end on six. But yeah, with

636
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: Peterson as an Eagles fan, that was my favorite game

637
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: with whole season. I hate Giants fans. I live in Jersey.

638
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: I think the Giants are three and seventeen against US

639
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: in the last ten years, so like it hasn't even

640
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: been a rivalry. We've just destroyed them ever since they

641
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: got their last Super Bowl. And it's fun. It's reigniting

642
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 1: things like guys who I haven't talked to in years.

643
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: I used to work on The Jersey Show where they're

644
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: all Giants fans, so from North Jersey. They're all texting me,

645
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: tell me how much of a scumbag my team is

646
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: and my coaches are. And I'm just loving it. I'm

647
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: drinking it in because I got a better draft pick

648
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: and the Giants did make the playoffs, and like you

649
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: were just saying, the Washington story is amazing. Man. Alex Smith,

650
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: one leg back in the league, took a team to

651
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, another for the playoffs, and run rivera

652
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: going through cancer chemo, literally killing himself with chemo, was

653
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: able to coach a full season. And it's the story

654
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: that I love, and I love that everyone else is

655
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: so off of this team. This is by far the

656
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: Big Ball has better the week. Big Ball better the week.

657
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: I I'm so excited that you did that. I'm looking

658
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: at this, I'm seeing every single motherfucker coming in on

659
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: the Bucks and I'm thinking, do not doubt, Chase Young,

660
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 1: do not doubt Alex Smith, professional football quarterback. Alex Smith,

661
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: professional quarterback, we are going with the washingtonotball team in

662
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: plus nine. Yeah, I'm shocked you didn't say it. You're

663
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: fellow old man Tom Brady. His bedtimes eight thirty. This game,

664
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: this game starts right around his bedtime. So this is

665
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: one of these where I I love the Washington football

666
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 1: team and I love that. Last week, at halftime, Doug

667
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: Peterson round Rivera shook hands and very said, listen, I'm

668
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 1: not gonna show anything on offense for the next half.

669
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: Are you cool with that? And you'll take out hurts

670
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: And he said, yeah, I'm cool with it. And they

671
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: literally just played that second half as vanilla as you

672
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: could get. So everyone's off of um Washington because Alex Smith,

673
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: if you just have a little bit of pressure, he

674
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: breaks right now. He looks like he's terrified of getting

675
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 1: hit because he's coming back from an injury. And they

676
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: just played that second half so vanilla, where they had

677
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: this whole week to get right, and like you just said,

678
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: everyone in the world's coming in on the books, everyone's

679
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: putting their money lines in, and this is the game

680
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: I talked about. I think this is gonna be the

681
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 1: breaker of those money lines. I love this Washington football team.

682
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: I love their front four, and we've seen the history

683
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: of Brady versus really good front force. He gets that's

684
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: how you beat them. You have to get pressure on him.

685
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: And I know they're saying Mike Evans is gonna be

686
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: back for this game, but I'll believe when I see it.

687
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: The fact that he's done. He's down his number one

688
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: weapon in the red zone against the Washington team who

689
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: was great in the red zone and the second or

690
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: maybe they were the best. They were the best team

691
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: again um for points scored against in the second half

692
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: all year. So we have a game here with the

693
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: Washington's down just three or six at halftime, I'll feel

694
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: even better about this bat because we already know Washington's

695
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: gonna play much better than the second half. They've been

696
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: great on second half adjustment. So looking at this game,

697
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Washington with the number. But shockingly, I'm

698
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: gonna play this over. I think that both teams can score,

699
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 1: and if Washington gets into a shoot, I think they

700
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: can put up the points. You know, I haven't scored

701
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: a lot this year, so a lot of people are

702
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 1: gonna come in heavy on the sunder. I just think

703
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 1: that will be a public play with the under. So

704
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: I like the over. Right now, the total is at

705
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 1: forty five, and it's about fifty fifty on the total

706
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: with the money. The money actually is coming in on

707
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: the over. Um. So the wise guys are with you

708
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: on this total. So is that going to be are

709
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: we looking at the over? Forty five is something that

710
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: we like more than the Bill's minus six and a

711
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: half for the Seahawks minus four? I know it's not

712
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: gonna be something we like more than Washington plus nine. No. Yeah,

713
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: the Washingtons locked in because, like I'm on their money

714
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: long too with that one. Um No, because like honestly,

715
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: I'm so, I know we shouldn't be emotional. I had

716
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 1: teased that over last week. I think it was like

717
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 1: thirty seven. They scored thirty one in the first half,

718
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: and that game went under that teased over. So I'm

719
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 1: I'm scarred with Washington's over. So I'm gonna bet that personally,

720
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't put it as our best five. Don't

721
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: get emotional, but fox. All right, let's move on to

722
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 1: the Sunday games. First one one PM. This is a winner.

723
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: Ravens minus three at the Titans. The total is say

724
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half. We're stucky, poor stucky man.

725
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: This guy is flying hot, just giving takes hot, takes

726
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: on Twitter, feeling good about his Ravens. He doesn't want

727
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: to drink him by what, I'm afraid already said. You

728
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: went to Vegas and that's why they lost or something

729
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: last year the buttons. Uh, stucky. You can do whatever

730
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: you want, but I think the Ravens are probably gonna

731
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: lose this game. It's it's been profitable of me just

732
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: fading Lamar in the playoffs. I've I took a big

733
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 1: dog with the Chargers the first year, took a big

734
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: dog last year. That tightens against him, and it's it's

735
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 1: annoying that it moved off the three and a half

736
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 1: of the items because that would have been locked in

737
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 1: for us. Now that it's down to three, I don't

738
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: love it as much because now it is gonna start

739
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: shifting you to the Ravens. I can joke that I

740
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: think the Rains are gonna lose. It's just mainly value

741
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: because this game is a coin flip. So now that

742
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: it's down to three, it's still a coin flip. You're

743
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: still at least getting the value on the Titans, where

744
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 1: even if the Ravens are up ten. Do you ever

745
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: do you ever feel really worried with the Titans, Like

746
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 1: it seems like Tannahill can get the ball down field

747
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 1: and make these big plays with these receivers Ryan Tanna Thrill.

748
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: Don't mind when they're down, and when they're up, I

749
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 1: feel even better because we have Derrick Henry carrying the

750
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: ball for us. So this is just a smart number

751
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: again a home dog. We love home dogs here. We

752
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: have to take the plus three. By the way, I

753
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: agree with uh, do you have a thought on the over?

754
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: Fifty three and a half fifty four? We have to

755
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: take the over, right. I know it's an under a

756
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: game like because everyone's gonna take the over, but I'm

757
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: gonna be so mad at myself. I take this under

758
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: and it's twenty four to twenty at halftime, and I'm

759
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: just sitting there like, why am I even messing with us?

760
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: Because I I get buried on these unders sometimes in

761
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: the playoffs because it is a little weird where you

762
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: don't know some of these defenses, they can just get

763
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 1: out dominated by offenses so easily in the playoffs, and

764
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 1: it is a little worried. Where we had a season

765
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: now was historical. I don't know if you saw the numbers.

766
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: It was the most point scored ever in the NFL season,

767
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 1: most touchdowns thrown, most rushing touchdowns, all of that. So

768
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: it's hard to tailor you have taken under with these

769
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: two teams just have such potent offenses. So for me,

770
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean the over. At this point, I would say,

771
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 1: this is foxhol right, We're in the foxhole. Let's climb

772
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: down into the foxhole. We are in the foxhole in Nashville.

773
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,479
Speaker 1: We are going with the Titans plus three plus three.

774
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: Titans plus three. I like that side. How could that

775
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: not be the side? Meanwhile, here are the Chicago Bears,

776
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: you and I. At this point we hold a Bears

777
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: future ticket from in May. Then we all the Bears

778
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 1: future ticket from August, and now we hold the Bears

779
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: futures ticket from January. Of course, we are walking into

780
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: a hornet's nest right now, and we're going with the

781
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: Bears plus nine and a half plus ten. Whatever it takes,

782
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 1: give me the Bears hornets nest. Be my companion. I'm

783
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: walking to a fucking Hornets nest, all right, now'll be

784
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: my companion. Yeah, And I and people think they don't

785
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: get it, while I should hate the Bears, like I

786
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: literally had them over eight and a half wins at

787
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: the eight, so I pushed on the eight, but I

788
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: lost the over eight and a half like this team

789
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: was five and one. They didn't catch my over ticket.

790
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: I hate the Bears with such disting, but like you

791
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: just said, ten and a half, they're begging us to

792
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: take this. This has been bed up so high, and

793
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: me and you were gonna be texting on Sunday and

794
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: we're not gonna be shocked at all when the Bears

795
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: are down twenty and it's just through his third interception

796
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 1: because he's terrible, and the Bears they might be done,

797
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: they might have given up, but we can't not take

798
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: a plus ten and a half dog on the road

799
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: that has a defense against a Saints team we already

800
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 1: talked about. They keep letting letting us down here in

801
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: the playoffs the last few years. So as a guy

802
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 1: that's going to be bet on the Seahawks, I love

803
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 1: it because then I'll just take care of the Saints

804
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 1: for us. But yeah, I gotta gotta take the Bears

805
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 1: here plus ten. But I'm not touching the money line

806
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: for the Bears. I don't. I don't think they can win.

807
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 1: We are all over the bearsness game. The total is,

808
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: uh forty seven? Easy over that? That's in our five Wow? Okay, yeah,

809
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 1: just fifty one. So, barring barring a craziness with COVID

810
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: and the Saints don't have any the running backs still

811
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: or the Bears get hit, I like that over forty seven.

812
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: All right. So the last game on the board right

813
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 1: now is that brown Steelers game. Obviously this is like

814
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: a COVID crazy game. Kevin Stefanski has tested positive. Other

815
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 1: people on the Browns team has tested positive. The facility

816
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 1: has been closed. The game opened at three and a half.

817
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 1: It got it up to five and a half. I

818
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: know for a fact. I saw on Twitter you took

819
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 1: it at five and a half? Uh is now at six?

820
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: Is there a stop point where it gets to be

821
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: too much and you can't be on the Steelers? Or

822
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: what's your take here? Even better, buddy, we got the

823
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: money line from what is that Monday Sunday night or

824
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 1: Monday morning? Took it for us? And some of these

825
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 1: money on parlay, so all in the Steelers. I threw

826
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 1: it out to the fans, and I would take it

827
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 1: up to seven. That's where I have it at, even

828
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 1: without the coaches. But I mean I probably would take

829
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 1: it at seven. This is just one of these games

830
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: where the Browns have been practicing on parking lots and

831
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: virtually for about two weeks now, we keep having guys

832
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 1: pop up with COVID, and what we what we've learned

833
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 1: with COVID it is it's never just one guy. It

834
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 1: always another guy comes up with it later in the week,

835
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 1: or someone else's gonna pop up with it. So nfls

836
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: just keep going ahead. I mean, maybe they'll move it

837
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 1: to Monday. I just don't see it happening because that's

838
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: a disadvantage to whoever wins the game. But I love

839
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 1: this number. I love it up to seven. UM really

840
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if the Browns somehow pulled this game

841
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: out of things just going against right now, they're playing

842
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: against the team that the second team almost beat them,

843
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: so I don't think Baker can handle the pressure. Well.

844
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: I already loved the game company. I love the Steelers

845
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: coming in minus during a half. The fact that that's

846
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: up to six because all the COVID news and the

847
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: coach might be out, we still love them. So this

848
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 1: is definitely our five with Pittsburgh here, alright. So we've

849
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,479
Speaker 1: got our big balls bet, we've got our hornets nest,

850
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: we've got our foxhole bet. Here are the five, six, seven,

851
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 1: eight that we've narrowed down. Some of these we've already made,

852
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 1: So we'll put these in the app and let people know.

853
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: Like the bets that we've made, um Bills minus six

854
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 1: and a half, Seahawks minus four, Washington plus nine plus plus.

855
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 1: We like the over in this game. The total on

856
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: that is forty five. We like the who else the

857
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: Titans plus three, and we definitely like the over fifty

858
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: three and a half. We like the Bears plus Tenant

859
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half or ten, and we like

860
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: the over forty been in that and then we like

861
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: the Steelers as much as you can get until I

862
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: get the seven, and then you know, walk away essentially

863
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 1: that I did I capture that. Yeah, Like six is

864
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 1: people don't don't think it's a key number. I I

865
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: really do believe six is a key number because of

866
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: all the extra points Smiths, So the five and a half,

867
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 1: that was just great value that most people got that

868
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 1: before it hit the six. But yeah, and also in

869
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: this game, I can't fault you for taking the over

870
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: because we've seen the Browns and the Steelers have been

871
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 1: prone to big plays. And this is the third time

872
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: these teams have seen each other, so they know what

873
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: kind of scheme both teams are running on defense and

874
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 1: on offense. But both these teams have been susceptible big place.

875
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 1: So I leaned the over as well for this. But

876
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: this is one of these games you have to wait

877
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: on the weather. Pittsburgh. They're right near the Great Lakes.

878
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 1: You never know what the weather can be up near

879
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:49,800
Speaker 1: the steel City, so I'd wait on that number. But yeah, buddy, um,

880
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: we can go through right now. The money lines we

881
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: got played right now. We have the way I like

882
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: to do. I like to do two teamers from money lines,

883
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 1: and the juice might be a little high, but if

884
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 1: you're feeling spicy, you just do three teamers and you

885
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 1: get the plus one thirty seven or you get plus

886
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: one or nine, depends on the teams you take. So

887
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 1: for the money lines, I stayed away from for these favorites.

888
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: I stayed away from the Buccaneers because I like Washington.

889
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 1: I stayed away from the Raven's money line because obviously

890
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 1: we like the Titans and that one and every other team.

891
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 1: I pretty much did different barriers since of a two team,

892
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 1: three team teasers. So the biggest one for us is

893
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: the Steelers. If the Steelers lose that game out right

894
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: in my in my artis a little bit, but I

895
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: just loved it, like Sunday night Monday morning after watching

896
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: that game. The Browns, they're just not there yet. We

897
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: know that Big Ben has been here before, Mike Tomlins

898
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 1: been here before, hit that we have a huge coaching advantage,

899
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: especially now that's the fancy is out, Like this guy

900
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 1: is gonna be might not even be in the stadium

901
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 1: trying to help this team out. I'm gonna look at

902
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: you real close today to see if you highly condition

903
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 1: they're ready to go, you know what I mean, And

904
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:57,760
Speaker 1: if you're not, I'm gonna put you in the news.

905
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 1: We're all in on Pittsburgh this week and just how

906
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: people don't forget our our super Bowl. What we we

907
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: love the Bills, we played it earlier. Um for the NFC.

908
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:08,399
Speaker 1: We like the Seahawks. We think that's where the good

909
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 1: value is right now for Super Bowl in the NFC.

910
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: All right, there you have it again. I'm gonna put

911
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: all these in the app. You've gotten a big picture

912
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: of what we're looking for. You've gotten a lot of

913
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 1: the numbers that we're thinking about. You've got some of

914
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: the money line. I will get all this and as

915
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: lines move, I will put them in the app. As

916
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,399
Speaker 1: we make bets, I will put them in the app.

917
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: It's a little bit different than what we have been

918
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 1: doing during the season because we were putting picks in

919
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning, which I will also do if we

920
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: make any changes. Um, but I'll put them in as

921
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: we go because we're not beholden to like draft Kings,

922
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: locking the number on Thursday and then us having to

923
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,800
Speaker 1: put something in by Sunday. We can get the lines

924
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 1: as they come in as we feel good about them.

925
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:54,280
Speaker 1: So I will uh, I will share that as we go, folks.

926
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: We are doing another phrase that pays the winner earns

927
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 1: one dollars for every win. Simon and I have this

928
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 1: week of our five favorites. We will match that number

929
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: with a donation to the winner's favorite charity to be eligible.

930
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: Don't forget, we have new rules. New rules. Go follow

931
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: at the Favorite Pod. Send us your submission for this

932
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: year's gambling MVP by tagging at the Favorite Pot. Matt

933
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 1: Mitchell will sift through the submissions and randomly choose you

934
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: will win some money. Speaking to winners, last week's winner

935
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 1: of the contest is Holder of the House. Holder of

936
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: the House, Please reach out to Matt dot Mitchell at

937
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,720
Speaker 1: Action network dot com for your prize. Here's what Holder

938
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: of the House had to say. It's not just the

939
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: points on the spread for these two. These fellas are

940
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 1: handing out life advice people points about marriage, relationships, gambling.

941
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. You're going to win at the sports

942
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: book and at life with this podcast. Be a companion

943
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 1: into the hornets nest. Chuck your big balls onto the

944
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: table and make your bets. It's helping pad my daughter's

945
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: college fund. So you know, it's good. Holder of the House.

946
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: That's a good one. That was good and uh, just

947
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: I don't forget people want to know the numbers for

948
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: us all that I keep forgetting that. Um so most

949
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: weeks we would either have like seven or six or

950
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: five games we would get down to that. We talked

951
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: about we're on our list the games we loved. So

952
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: if we just stuck um with those games on the season, Uh,

953
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: including even our week seventeen, I putting in our three

954
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 1: and two, you're seventy one point six percent for the season. Um,

955
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 1: so that's basically almost ten percent better than what we

956
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 1: did in the contest, which if you just do the

957
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: math and the money that is it's like that's that's

958
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Uh well, it's honestly makes sense because,

959
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 1: uh we did take games that we literally were on

960
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: the other side of and sometimes in the competition, like

961
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 1: the one that really stucks it sticks out was Uh

962
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: we had this week where we love the Ravens that

963
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 1: were playing the Bengals, and something happened. We were just like,

964
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 1: maybe Joe Burrow, maybe this kid does have their goods

965
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: and I think the Ravens beat him by like thirty.

966
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: Uh So we have little things like that. We're on

967
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: the show. We were dead on and then comes Sunday

968
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 1: we had flipped. But the funniest thing was looking at

969
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: the team that was most profitable for us in the competition,

970
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 1: who do you think it is? It's got to be

971
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 1: the Broncos. It's actually New England, no way. Yeah, man,

972
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: we were good when New England. We were good at

973
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: picking them and then fading them. Um, this year the

974
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: worst team for us this year in the competition where

975
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 1: the Browns. We only want one time picking the Browns. Uh.

976
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: It was kind of funny looking through it too, like

977
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: the certain weeks where man, like early in the year,

978
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: you just don't know what team is gonna really blow up,

979
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: Like you talked about the Bills. Other than that failed

980
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 1: Merry game, they've just been a covering machine than the

981
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: year here and if you had just rode the Bills,

982
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 1: the Miami and there's a couple of other teams all year, Man,

983
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: it was a profitable year. So that's one thing is

984
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: being to lookout next year is like we talked about

985
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 1: Miami coming into the year, they were one of those

986
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 1: teams that people slept on. Last We made money the

987
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: end of the season on them. So in the off

988
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: season I'm gonna try to find that again when we

989
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 1: have a team that maybe it is the Broncos because

990
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 1: they were one of these teams they're underdogs all year

991
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: and they still somehow We're like nine and seven against

992
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: the spread that they're a team and they're just a

993
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: piece or two away, or maybe they need a new

994
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: quarterback with Drew Lock. But there's a couple of teams

995
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 1: that like looking at the end of the year that

996
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 1: they really turned around the end of the the season that

997
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,720
Speaker 1: you want to kind of ride into the next following season.

998
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 1: So obviously we'll break that down the off season. But yeah,

999
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 1: it was fun going to the number's Chad, But next

1000
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: year we gotta keep that in mind. Man, Just stick

1001
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:51,240
Speaker 1: to our Tuesday picks and we're gonna be winning big money,

1002
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 1: big big money. That is sick. That is just so

1003
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: there's so many things we could have done better this year.

1004
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: We could have been betting these by the way, just

1005
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 1: like during the week when we thought of them and

1006
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: like and then doubling up on the weekend, like we

1007
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 1: should have just done that. That's what you gotta do, man,

1008
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: I don't dread this year. Like anytime we get done

1009
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: this show of time, I literally will go like all

1010
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: my phone, I'll just do all the different apps. I'll

1011
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 1: just hit all the games for like a thousand, because

1012
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: it's one of those where it's like not that I

1013
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: think we move lines, but I found every time we

1014
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: do this show come Wednesday morning, a lot of these

1015
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 1: lines moved by a point or two and maybe Matt

1016
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: Mitchell canna take this out. I swear your buddy Colin

1017
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,879
Speaker 1: Coward listens to the show, so I have I don't

1018
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: listen to this guy. I don't listen to a show

1019
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 1: or anything like that. But I had a friend passed

1020
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:45,280
Speaker 1: along his picks for the season. Chad, This dude literally

1021
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: listens to our show. He'll fade us. Sometimes you didn't

1022
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: have a great year doing it, but it just works

1023
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 1: out that somehow most of the time the five games

1024
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: we pick or his five games he picks for the week,

1025
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: and sometimes the other side of it, and it didn't

1026
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 1: work out from this year trying to go against it.

1027
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 1: But you should reach out to him and just ask him,

1028
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: are you even studying football where you just listen to

1029
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,720
Speaker 1: our show and take our picks? Because well, here's what's funny.

1030
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,520
Speaker 1: I thought it was really funny seeing his picks on

1031
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: paper because my buddy send it to me and it

1032
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: was like, Wow, this guy is literally lined up with

1033
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,359
Speaker 1: us most weeks. Here's the thing. Uh, he may listen

1034
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:18,399
Speaker 1: to the show, um, but I also know we text

1035
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 1: almost every week what our picks are and normally, but

1036
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 1: normally normally I am we're on. I'd say, he'll send

1037
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 1: me six or seven games he's into, and I'll send

1038
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 1: back the one time into and you know we might

1039
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,879
Speaker 1: match on say three or four every single week. So

1040
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: he's definitely like thinking the same way as we do,

1041
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: because he also he bets the same way we do.

1042
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 1: Like he's thinking about what is the public perception, he's

1043
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,439
Speaker 1: thinking about contrarian. You know, he's a pretty astute football guy.

1044
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 1: And but also we would end up texting after he

1045
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: had already done his stuff, So I don't think he's

1046
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: following our picks. I think we just all think the

1047
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:57,399
Speaker 1: same way. Because he's been doing this for a long time.

1048
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 1: That's fair. It's just a little scary. I was just like,

1049
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:02,359
Speaker 1: if this guy is really doing you should start throwing

1050
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: you some bones, Manta shut out. Our podcast is a

1051
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 1: million dollar radio show. You know, Colin's the best, He's

1052
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 1: the best, all right, listen. I feel like we did

1053
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 1: a full show here. I think we gave people a

1054
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 1: lot of what they need. So uh for Simon Hunter

1055
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 1: at Simon Hunter Tan follow him in the Action Network

1056
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: app Simon Hunter, Chad Millman at Chad Moment on Twitter,

1057
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 1: Follow me in the Action Network app. Chad Millman for

1058
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, our producer. This has been the favorites from

1059
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 1: the Action Network. Download from Apple, podcasts from Spotify. Whenever

1060
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Until next time, I Love you,