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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: DAYBAC podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Friday, the ninth of August two in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The global stock market

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Speaker 2: recovery continues as fears over the US economy ease.

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Speaker 1: The US cutout and Egypt call for new Gaza CEASEFA

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Speaker 1: talks next week as Israel braces for an expected attack

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Speaker 1: from Iran.

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Speaker 2: Plus the UK considers tighter social media regulation after Kerstarmer's

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Speaker 2: online confrontation with Elon Musk.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: A recovery in global shares is continuing this morning after

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Speaker 2: signs of resilience in the US labor market. Wall Street

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Speaker 2: rallied after US employment benefit applications fell by the most

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Speaker 2: in nearly a year last week, and the market reaction

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Speaker 2: continuing in Asia today. It's currently pricing in about forty

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Speaker 2: basis points of federal reserve rate cuts for September, but

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Speaker 2: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says policymakers will be in

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Speaker 2: a good position to assess the US economy over the

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Speaker 2: coming months.

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Speaker 4: I think you've got some time in a healthy economy

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Speaker 4: to figure out whether this is an economy that's gently

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Speaker 4: moving into a normalizing state that will allow you to,

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Speaker 4: you know, in a steady, deliberate way, normalize rates, you know,

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Speaker 4: and hit the stick the landing. If I could use

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Speaker 4: another balance beam analogy, or you know, is this one

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Speaker 4: where you really do have to lean into it.

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Speaker 2: That's Thomas Barkin from the Richmond Fed. There Bank of

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Speaker 2: Kansas City FED President Jeffrey Schmid indicated he's not ready

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Speaker 2: to support a reduction and interest rates with inflation above

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Speaker 2: the two percent target. The focus now shifts to US

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Speaker 2: data next week, including consumer prices.

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Speaker 1: The US Cutter and Egypt are calling for a new

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Speaker 1: round of girls of Ceasefar talks to be held on

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Speaker 1: the fifteenth of August. It's the latest attempt by the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration to the conflict, as the regent braces for

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Speaker 1: an expected Iranian attack on Israel. According to a post

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Speaker 1: on x from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya, who's office, Israel

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Speaker 1: will send a delegation to the planned discussions. There was

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Speaker 1: no immediate comment from Hamas. Meanwhile, US Air Force stealthy

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Speaker 1: Raptor jets have arrived in the Middle East in a

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Speaker 1: bid to deter an Iranian attack.

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Speaker 2: An advisor to Kamala Harris says the Democratic presidential candidate

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Speaker 2: doesn't support halting armed shipments arms shipments to Israel. The

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Speaker 2: tactic has been pushed by progressives keen on America taking

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Speaker 2: a sert of action to end the war in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: with the vice president's national security advisor posted on social

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Speaker 2: media that quote, she will always ensure Israel is able

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Speaker 2: to defend itself.

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Speaker 1: Now to the presidential run. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: has proposed three separate TV debates with Kamala Harris. In September,

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Speaker 1: the former president called Harris quote barely comp.

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Speaker 5: She hasn't done an interview, she can't do an interview.

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Speaker 5: She's barely competent, and she can't do an interview. But

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Speaker 5: I look forward to the debates because I think we

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Speaker 5: have to set the record straight.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump speaking there.

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Speaker 1: He has previously declined to commit to debates after Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden dropped out of the race. In an hour long

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Speaker 1: press conference, the Republican also said that presidents should have

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Speaker 1: some say of interest rates and monetary policy, which would

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Speaker 1: bark the Fed's tradition of political independence.

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Speaker 2: The UK government is considering tightening online hate speech laws

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Speaker 2: after provocations from figures including Elon Musk during two weeks

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Speaker 2: of riots. Bloomberg has learned the government met social media

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Speaker 2: executives earlier this week and is looking at introducing legal

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Speaker 2: levers to force moderation of harmful content by Minister kir

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Speaker 2: Starmer has been repeatedly attacked by ex owner Elon Musk Online,

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Speaker 2: who's also shared numerous right wing conspiracy theories about the

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Speaker 2: It's not the first time Mosk has picked a fight

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Speaker 2: with a world leader over the content on his platform.

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Speaker 2: Earlier this year, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanizi called the

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Speaker 2: tech giant CEO and arrogant billionaire.

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Speaker 6: This isn't about freedom of speech. This is an egotist.

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Speaker 6: He is someone who's totally out of touch with the

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Speaker 6: values that Australian families have and this is causing great distress.

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Speaker 6: I think it is causing damage to his own brand

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Speaker 6: of Twitter, which has now become x He clearly ces

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Speaker 6: says a vanity project for himself.

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Speaker 2: Albanese's government has used legal powers to force Musk's platform

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Speaker 2: to remove violent content in Australia.

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Speaker 1: Now in a moment, we're kind of begging more on

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Speaker 1: the valley that we've seen in stocks this morning, and

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Speaker 1: also the latest developments on the Middle East. But first

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Speaker 1: this door, we caught our Olympic dollars and how much

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Speaker 1: athletes get for winning medals. So number of stories about

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Speaker 1: this on the Blueberg terminal because it really well, a

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Speaker 1: lot of Olympic athletes, of course don't get paid at all.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there isn't a kind of prize money that

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Speaker 1: goes with winning. But actually the rewards very much depend

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Speaker 1: on your sport, on your sponsorship, and also on your country.

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Speaker 1: So US swimming chiefs apparently want their Olympic athletes to

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Speaker 1: be paid more. They get a performance bonus two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars. But actually in the pool, the

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Speaker 1: US didn't do that well. They did very well in

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Speaker 1: athletics this year, not super well in the pool, the

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Speaker 1: fewest gold medals since nineteen fifty six, and so actually

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Speaker 1: each US swimmer only got just over five thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: US fencing and lots of teams want to see a

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Speaker 1: bit more support for athletes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, indeed.

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Speaker 2: Look, I mean this is why we see so much

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Speaker 2: in terms of corporate sponsorship, and even we have another

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Speaker 2: story about the fencing team talking about how you know

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Speaker 2: they have their phone on and their emails are being

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Speaker 2: checked to see what sort of deals they're going to

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Speaker 2: be offered after the prominence that the Olympics gives them.

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Speaker 2: But it's a broader question about how do you keep

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Speaker 2: these elite athletes in the sport?

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, UK rows for example, trying to lead the charge

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Speaker 1: in terms of getting a little bit more money and

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Speaker 1: kind of bonuses paid to UK athletes too. Anyway, I

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Speaker 1: thought it was interesting obviously after a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: of the Olympics.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's get back to the markets and economic story today.

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Speaker 2: A recovery of global shares continuing in Asia that was

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Speaker 2: after US initial jobless claims data fell by the most

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Speaker 2: in nearly a year. We've also had new figures on

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Speaker 2: CPI in China as well. Let's bring in Bloomberg editor

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Speaker 2: Jail Desis for more on this. Jill, great to have

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Speaker 2: you with us on the program. How strong is the

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Speaker 2: rebound that we're seeing in markets? And I suppose what

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Speaker 2: does that tell us about the fears around the US

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Speaker 2: economy and how much they've abated.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Stephen, it's a pretty significant rebound here. We're seeing

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Speaker 8: some broad based rises and stocks across Asia right now,

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Speaker 8: from Japan to South Korea and Australia. We've also seen

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Speaker 8: Hong Kong equities maintain some games today, stock features are

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Speaker 8: gaining and all of this, Yes, as you said, seems

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Speaker 8: to be related to the fact that we're seeing, you know,

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Speaker 8: some fears over a year's recession fade because of these

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Speaker 8: initial claim data. I mean, look, these initial claims data

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Speaker 8: decreased by seventeen thousand to twenty three thousand in the

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Speaker 8: week ended you know, August third. That's significantly lower than estimated.

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Speaker 8: So you are seeing a bit of a retreat back

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Speaker 8: a little bit. I will say that's not entirely unexpected,

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Speaker 8: because there are some seasonal adjustment effects for the month

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Speaker 8: of July that we have to take into consideration and such.

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Speaker 8: But I think particularly off of you know, the data

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Speaker 8: from just a couple of weeks ago that really triggered

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Speaker 8: this big market's meltdown. I mean, this is some pretty

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Speaker 8: encouraging news, you know out of the US that maybe

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Speaker 8: there's a little bit more resilience in there, and maybe

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Speaker 8: we're back to the conventional wisdom from just about a

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Speaker 8: month ago, which is, you know, sort of like a

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Speaker 8: slower retreat that's not triggering any sort of immediate recession fears.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we've also had a number of FED speakers. None

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Speaker 1: seem to be close to the idea of an emergency

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Speaker 1: rakeer and frankly a jump by rate car or any

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Speaker 1: rate cuts at all, it would seem. So what are

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Speaker 1: we thinking about the Fed path ahead? We do get

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Speaker 1: that us CPI data next week.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Caroline, well I think that, you know, I mean

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Speaker 8: when the markets were going crazy just last week, and

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Speaker 8: so I know that there was some of that initial

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Speaker 8: chatter about oh my gosh, like does the Fed need

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Speaker 8: to make an emergency cut here? I think we're well

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Speaker 8: off of there. I mean, we've heard from several cents

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Speaker 8: for bankers over the past few days. Austin Goolsby, the

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Speaker 8: Fed Chicago president, was saying, look, like you know, I mean, yes,

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Speaker 8: like job numbers are weak, but we really didn't even then,

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Speaker 8: like you know, before we got these these jobless claims data.

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Speaker 8: I mean, he was saying, look, that's one month of data.

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Speaker 8: We really need to be a bit cautious there. We

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Speaker 8: don't really want to you know, blow through normal. I

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Speaker 8: think was his you know, kind of the thinking there.

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Speaker 8: So yeah, I mean maybe you do see something still

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Speaker 8: in September, but you know, in any case, you know,

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Speaker 8: obviously like cut probably by the end of the year.

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Speaker 8: But it does seem like they're at least tamping down

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Speaker 8: this idea that you know, there would be anything that

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Speaker 8: would be a more drastic emergency measure taken.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly. I mean the language from Jeffrey Schmidt from

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Speaker 2: the Kansas City FED is not a voting member, but

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Speaker 2: interesting to hear him saying that we're not there in

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Speaker 2: terms of supporting a reduction in interest rates because inflation

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Speaker 2: is still above target and him seeing the labor market

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Speaker 2: is being still healthy despite some cooling, so giving us

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Speaker 2: an idea, I suppose some of the diversions of views

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Speaker 2: that exists within those members of the FED. Jill, let's

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Speaker 2: turn to the data from China that we've had at

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Speaker 2: this morning as well, and this is an interesting reading

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Speaker 2: on where the Chinese economy is.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, China's consumer price is actually picked up a bit

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Speaker 8: more than expected in July. So a lot of this

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Speaker 8: is seasonal factors like weather. But look, I mean at

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Speaker 8: the end of the at the end of the day,

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Speaker 8: I mean the CPI index, I mean it really still

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Speaker 8: only climbed to zero point five percent from a year earlier.

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Speaker 8: So we're not talking about any kind of massive jump

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Speaker 8: in CPI producer price inflation, by the way, you know,

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Speaker 8: the producer prices remain stuck in deflation for I think

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Speaker 8: the point it's twenty two to twenty three consecutive months.

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Speaker 8: There's still a lot of issues there. I think, you know,

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Speaker 8: when it comes to China, you know, the inflation spending

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Speaker 8: story in China has been pretty weak all year. You

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Speaker 8: have seen a little bit of an uptick, which is

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Speaker 8: a bit of an improvement, but it still, you know,

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Speaker 8: does show that lingering weakness in overall demand. I think

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Speaker 8: in China too, if you cut out food and energy costs,

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Speaker 8: which are you know, more volatile, that core CPI figure

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Speaker 8: rose just zero point four percent. That's the weakest reading

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Speaker 8: since January. So you are continuing to see some issues

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Speaker 8: there within the Chinese economy in terms of that demand picture.

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Speaker 8: I'm not sure that that there's any kind of you know,

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Speaker 8: show of how that would meaningfully improve over the next

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Speaker 8: few months.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Okay, Jill, thank you so much for being

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Speaker 1: with us this morning. Then taking us through the market story,

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Speaker 1: including the data from China and the discussion around US rates.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's editor, Jill deesis.

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Speaker 2: That turns the Middle least. Now the US, Katar, and

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Speaker 2: Egypt are urging cease fire talks next Thursday between Israel

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Speaker 2: and Hamas. That's stuff. The Israeli Prime Minister has said

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Speaker 2: that they're sending a negotiating team to those talks set

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Speaker 2: for the fifteenth of August. Let's get the latest now

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Speaker 2: from our Boomberg Horizons anchor Jamani Brasatchi, Jamana, great to

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Speaker 2: have you with us. What are the expectations then for

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Speaker 2: reaching a cease far deal.

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Speaker 7: Well, the expectations is still quite low. But I think

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Speaker 7: it is notable that you had the US President, the

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Speaker 7: Emir of Kutar, and the President of Egypt all put

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Speaker 7: out this joint statement together saying that they are really

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Speaker 7: calling on Israel and Hamas both to take part in

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Speaker 7: this final round of negotiations to finalize the hostage and

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Speaker 7: cease far deal.

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Speaker 3: They said, and this.

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Speaker 7: Is a quote only the details remain to be negotiated,

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Speaker 7: and we found out a short while ago that Israel

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Speaker 7: will be sending a team to those negotiations. We haven't

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Speaker 7: yet heard from Hamas. But of course at the backdrop

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Speaker 7: to all of this is that we found out earlier

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Speaker 7: this week Hamas have appointed Yeah Yah sin what as

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Speaker 7: their new political leader, and that at the time was

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Speaker 7: taken to be a bit of a setback for the

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Speaker 7: cs FAR discussions, namely because of Yeahsidua, who he represents

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Speaker 7: being the master amount of October seven, being still one

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Speaker 7: of the people that is situated in Gaza, very close

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Speaker 7: to the hostages themselves. So it raised a lot of

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Speaker 7: questions as to the appetite from Hamas's side to continue

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Speaker 7: with these discussions. But the fact that the presidents of

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Speaker 7: US and Egypt and Cutter are all urging these sides

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Speaker 7: to continue with the discussion is progressed, you could say,

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Speaker 7: and just wanted to add as well from Iran's perspective,

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Speaker 7: the president there, Pasieshkian, had a called with President Macran

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Speaker 7: earlier this week, also talking about the fact that Israel

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Speaker 7: should accept a truce in Gaza in order to reduce

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Speaker 7: tensions in the Middle East. So this isn't just about Gaza,

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Speaker 7: but about tensions in the region as a whole.

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Speaker 1: What has the US been doing then, in the face

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Speaker 1: of a possible attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies.

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Speaker 7: Yes, so the US are pursuing I would say, a

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Speaker 7: double mandate at this point. On one hand, they are

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Speaker 7: of course pushing for diplomatic solution, urging all sides to

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Speaker 7: come to the table, but on the same time, at

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Speaker 7: the same time, they are also looking to invoke strategic deterrence.

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Speaker 7: And what I mean by strategic deterrence is that they're

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Speaker 7: deploying more and more military assets to the region. We

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Speaker 7: found out yesterday that the fighter jets, the F twenty

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Speaker 7: two fighter jets have now arrived in the Middle East.

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Speaker 7: The Central Command put up a post on x saying

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Speaker 7: that they were there. This is the first time they've

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Speaker 7: been deployed to the region since June of twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 7: We know that some military vessels have arrived as well,

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Speaker 7: in addition to other fighter jets and other military equipment

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Speaker 7: that's being deployed. So they are building up a military

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Speaker 7: presence with the view of deterring Iran and its proxies.

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Speaker 7: From engaging in a bigger warfare in the Middle East

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Speaker 7: at this point. So it is a two pronged approached.

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Speaker 7: On one hand, they want to sue the diplomatic channels.

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Speaker 7: On the other hand, they also are beefing up the

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Speaker 7: region in anticipation of a likely response out of Iran

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Speaker 7: and its proxies.

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Speaker 2: Do you, Maana, While all of these things are happening

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Speaker 2: outside of Gaza, what do we know about what's happening

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Speaker 2: inside Gaza?

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Speaker 7: Yes, so the latest that we know from within Gaza

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Speaker 7: is that the Israeli military has ordered another massive evacuations

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Speaker 7: around an Unis. This is Gaza's second largest city, and

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Speaker 7: you will recall that earlier on during the early stages

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Speaker 7: of this war, it did suffer a lot of destruction

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Speaker 7: during some of the air and ground operations that happened

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Speaker 7: a couple of months ago, and then since then the

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Speaker 7: attention moved on to Rafa. But what we've noticed in

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Speaker 7: the last couple of months is some new hotspots are

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Speaker 7: flaring up in the Gaea again within Gaza and with

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Speaker 7: other cities in Gaza, simply because Hamas have had the

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Speaker 7: ability to regroup, and the regrouping means that Israel's military

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Speaker 7: are going to go after the spots where they think

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Speaker 7: that Hamas have the ability to conduct more war efforts

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Speaker 7: once again. So this, for this reason, we are in

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Speaker 7: a situation now where the Israeli military is now warning

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Speaker 7: the citizens or the citizens are still there to evacuate

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Speaker 7: in anticipation of another assault. And of course this all

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Speaker 7: comes at a time wherein the Strip as a whole

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Speaker 7: is still facing a severe humanitarian crisis. There are ongoing

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Speaker 7: restrictions and aids, ongoing fighting that is limiting the access

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Speaker 7: of aid to many of the residents that still need it,

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Speaker 7: and the overall death toll within the Strip is approaching

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Speaker 7: forty thousand.

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