1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

2
00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

3
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

4
00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

5
00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

6
00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,160
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. You know, we've got

7
00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,680
Speaker 1: some red and green on the screen here. We've got

8
00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,040
Speaker 1: through some pretty strong earnings. We've got some more retailers

9
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,240
Speaker 1: to hear from, but it looks like the retailers are

10
00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,160
Speaker 1: generally in pretty good shape, the consumers in good shape.

11
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,680
Speaker 1: Let's get a check in with a professional on all

12
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,760
Speaker 1: of this stuff. Jordan's con He's the c i O

13
00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,440
Speaker 1: of the a c M Funds and portfolio manager of

14
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,400
Speaker 1: the a c UM Dynamic Dividend Fund. And Jordan's Matt

15
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:44,839
Speaker 1: and I were just talking about, you know, we were

16
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 1: looking at Visa in the news with Amazon in the

17
00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: UK and visas down five point four percent on this

18
00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,279
Speaker 1: news that Amazon will stop accepting the Visa card and

19
00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,880
Speaker 1: I guess, uh, in the UK in January, what did

20
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,840
Speaker 1: you now for now? And I mean master Card is

21
00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:02,880
Speaker 1: down as well, and you know it could this could spread.

22
00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 1: The idea is that Amazon and other retailers could do

23
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,560
Speaker 1: this to all the payment payment networks. How do you

24
00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,880
Speaker 1: think about that, Jordan's Yeah. I mean, you know, Visa

25
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 1: is a stock that we've owned for years. It's a

26
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,400
Speaker 1: great company, great management. I think that to your point,

27
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 1: that's the market's big concern, you know, with the early

28
00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:22,800
Speaker 1: reaction in Visa and the stock being down as much

29
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,200
Speaker 1: as we're seeing today. I think the concern is does

30
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,160
Speaker 1: this open some sort of Pandora's box? And if Amazon

31
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 1: is challenging them first in the UK, you know, does

32
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,480
Speaker 1: it kind of seep into other other markets and are

33
00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 1: there going to be other large retailers that try to

34
00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,480
Speaker 1: puff up their chest and and and challenge them as well.

35
00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,480
Speaker 1: But like I said, you know, Visa has excellent management.

36
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 1: It's been a well managed company for years and years

37
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 1: and years, and so I think, you know, at the

38
00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,240
Speaker 1: end of the day, when the dust sellers, management will

39
00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,160
Speaker 1: probably figure out a way to come to terms with

40
00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,120
Speaker 1: with with Amazon. And if there are other realtailers, um,

41
00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,040
Speaker 1: you know, and we'll see this story probably fall by

42
00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:00,960
Speaker 1: the way. Well, you can still use the debit card

43
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:05,840
Speaker 1: and um, I mean, I'm sure that all of these companies,

44
00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,600
Speaker 1: surely Visas at the forefront of looking at some kind

45
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:15,920
Speaker 1: of crypto blockchain way to make payments fast, easy and cheap. Yeah,

46
00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 1: they've always done a good job on their acquisitions and

47
00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,760
Speaker 1: so whether it's you know, to your point something in crypto,

48
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,480
Speaker 1: whether they're gonna do something with a buy now, pay later,

49
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:28,080
Speaker 1: which is you know, a big, big trend recently. Um,

50
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,280
Speaker 1: you know, m that's just a credit card, right, I

51
00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,160
Speaker 1: see these buy now, pay later things, And I mean

52
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 1: that's just the same thing, isn't it. It basically is

53
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 1: it's it's the new iteration of it, you know, somehow

54
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,120
Speaker 1: they figure out other ways to make money rather than

55
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 1: just charging the interest on it. Alright, So Jordan's as

56
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 1: a Visa shareholder, how do you think about that big

57
00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,960
Speaker 1: just changing financial landscape, whether it's just more technology coming

58
00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,680
Speaker 1: into the business. I know, since the pandemic, I'm doing

59
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,680
Speaker 1: a lot more my personal finance via apps and so

60
00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,960
Speaker 1: on and so forth. How did the Visas the master card?

61
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 1: How do you think about that holistically? How do they adapt? Well,

62
00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,000
Speaker 1: I think there's two things. You know that the one

63
00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:07,760
Speaker 1: thing is to your point that that if things are

64
00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,560
Speaker 1: going you know, crypto and digitally and stuff like that,

65
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,919
Speaker 1: that's a new trend that they may you know, dip

66
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,040
Speaker 1: their toe in the water, whether it's via acquisitions or

67
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,640
Speaker 1: something like that. But the other big trend that's going

68
00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,080
Speaker 1: on globally that Visa has been in the forefront of

69
00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,600
Speaker 1: for years is the trend just away from cash and

70
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,160
Speaker 1: more towards digital. Right as more and more of our

71
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,040
Speaker 1: lives moved to digital and become online. You know, last

72
00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,080
Speaker 1: year with the pandemic, we obviously saw a huge surge

73
00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,920
Speaker 1: of transactions moving online. And so those big global trends

74
00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,160
Speaker 1: are still a kail wind for companies like Visa master Card.

75
00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 1: I got this Apple watch for my birthday, and I'm

76
00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 1: not even sure it tells time, folks. I'm looking at

77
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 1: it now and it tells me not just time, but

78
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,960
Speaker 1: my heart rate, blood oxygen levels. It doesn't echo cardio Graham, etcetera.

79
00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,840
Speaker 1: I've been averaging even sitting down for too long exactly.

80
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 1: It tells me to stand up. I've been doing like

81
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,080
Speaker 1: ten fifteen thousand steps to day. But the thing is

82
00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,920
Speaker 1: the most fun thing to do with this is to

83
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,920
Speaker 1: make payments like I'm taking the subway more often because

84
00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 1: I just tapped my wrist on the thing and I

85
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,040
Speaker 1: go in, Or when I go to tar j and

86
00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 1: I pick up a twelve pack of pops, I just

87
00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 1: knock this on the payment thing and I feel like

88
00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,160
Speaker 1: the kids, I feel like you gotta check it out.

89
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,880
Speaker 1: Do you like any of these fintech I mean, we

90
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,240
Speaker 1: talked about Visa being good at acquisitions, Jordan, what do

91
00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,200
Speaker 1: you think about these? Um, not Apple obviously, because that's

92
00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,080
Speaker 1: uh to an app trillion dollar behemoth that we all

93
00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:32,920
Speaker 1: know about. But do you look at any of these

94
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,719
Speaker 1: younger growth your businesses. Yeah, for sure. You know, Visa

95
00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 1: is obviously one that I've mentioned that we've owned for years.

96
00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,040
Speaker 1: You know. We we like PayPal. That's the stock that's

97
00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,240
Speaker 1: come down a lot that you know, is at the

98
00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 1: forefront a lot of these trends, and I think that

99
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 1: we will continue to do well. Um, you know, we've

100
00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,679
Speaker 1: dipped our toe and something like a firm it's obviously

101
00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:54,480
Speaker 1: had a really really big run, and I wouldn't I

102
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,800
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't chase it here. But but you know, to

103
00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,839
Speaker 1: the point we were talking about the buy now, pay later,

104
00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,040
Speaker 1: they've kind of been the poster child for moving um

105
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 1: first mover advantage on that front. So yeah, there's a

106
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,679
Speaker 1: lot of interesting stuff out there, UM and we definitely,

107
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,160
Speaker 1: we definitely look at them all. Those are just a

108
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 1: few that UM we like. Hey, Jordan's Goldman Sachs CEO

109
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,040
Speaker 1: David Solomon said this morning at a Bloomberg conference in

110
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:23,400
Speaker 1: Singapore that market greed is now outpacing fear. Do you

111
00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,680
Speaker 1: see that, feel that sense that in the market. That's funny.

112
00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,840
Speaker 1: You know, we've definitely sense it in pockets, But I

113
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,200
Speaker 1: don't think you know, people compare this back to the

114
00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,599
Speaker 1: late nineties and stuff, and I don't think it's as

115
00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,720
Speaker 1: pervasive as it wanted as it was back then. You know,

116
00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,719
Speaker 1: there's certain pockets of stocks and you come in and

117
00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,120
Speaker 1: you see these things running ten and and there's definitely

118
00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,600
Speaker 1: an element of speculation there that you know, it's kind

119
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:53,920
Speaker 1: of running amuck that isn't sustainable. But there's also tons

120
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,080
Speaker 1: and tons of cash that's still on the sidelines. You know,

121
00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,400
Speaker 1: in the late nineties, you talk to anybody and they

122
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 1: would say, if you had three thousand dollars sitting in

123
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,880
Speaker 1: your checking account, you were an idiot, because it could

124
00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,160
Speaker 1: be in the market. You know, that kind of sentiment

125
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,080
Speaker 1: hasn't worked its way into the market today. Um. So

126
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:09,800
Speaker 1: for the people that are in the market playing, they're

127
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,039
Speaker 1: definitely some elevent of speculation. But for the general public,

128
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,160
Speaker 1: I don't think it's one of those bubble like environment

129
00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,039
Speaker 1: where everybody's like, I need to be all in with

130
00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,840
Speaker 1: every penny I have. All right, Jordan, thank you so much.

131
00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,080
Speaker 1: We appreciate that. As always during color we didn't get

132
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,039
Speaker 1: to talk about we didn't get talking about weed. We

133
00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: didn't get to talk about weed. And he went to

134
00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,640
Speaker 1: University of Colorado Boulder, which is exactly why I'm glad.

135
00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,279
Speaker 1: I'm glad you realized why I wanted and I just

136
00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,320
Speaker 1: wrote my last a tuition check to the University of

137
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:41,040
Speaker 1: Colorado a Boulder. One of the things we're waiting here

138
00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,640
Speaker 1: from FED Chairman pal Is or from President Biden is

139
00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,840
Speaker 1: will he keep FED Chairman jpal On as a head

140
00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,680
Speaker 1: of the FED or maybe bring in somebody new. I

141
00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:53,800
Speaker 1: know he's interviewed um Brainerd as well, and I know

142
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,800
Speaker 1: the markets focusing on I'm just not sure how much

143
00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 1: of a big deal it is for this market. Well,

144
00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,599
Speaker 1: everyone we talked to says they have in terms of

145
00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:06,200
Speaker 1: monetary policy, there's not much of a difference. It's the

146
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 1: regulatory aspect of that that makes UM Senator Warren so

147
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 1: angry at Jerome Powell. Yeah, and consistency, the market certainly

148
00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,760
Speaker 1: links consistency. But let's ask a professional, Phil Palumbo, founder

149
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,840
Speaker 1: CEO and c I O of Palumbo Wealth Management. He's

150
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,480
Speaker 1: been doing this wealth management thing for decades at ubs

151
00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,400
Speaker 1: and Morgan Stanley and mother Meryl. Uh. Phil, You've seen

152
00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:34,520
Speaker 1: FED chairman chair people come and go. How concerned are

153
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 1: you about You know what we might hear from President

154
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,040
Speaker 1: by in the next next few days about FED Chairman

155
00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:43,280
Speaker 1: Powell or someone new. The concern more is about inflation.

156
00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,000
Speaker 1: So whether in my view with Powell stays in there

157
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,760
Speaker 1: or brainerd comes in there and the open seats that

158
00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:53,800
Speaker 1: have become available over the next couple of months, either way,

159
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,680
Speaker 1: I believe both are dovish and a dovish FED governor

160
00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 1: as we have right now with with Powell. Even if

161
00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,240
Speaker 1: and it comes in, it means inflation can can continue

162
00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 1: to run hot because most likely they're gonna tame rates low.

163
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:08,880
Speaker 1: And if that's the case again, you know just inflation

164
00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:10,760
Speaker 1: is going to start to continue to feed on themselves.

165
00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,760
Speaker 1: So I think either way, whether it's BRAINERD or whether

166
00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,080
Speaker 1: it's power or progressive, tend to fill up those seats.

167
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,720
Speaker 1: You'll see more bank regulation, and I think you see

168
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,320
Speaker 1: rates lower for longer. I mean, what can they really

169
00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,560
Speaker 1: do about inflation anyway, other than you know, if they

170
00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 1: raise raids, they kind of stunt the economy, and that's

171
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,680
Speaker 1: not what you want, right. I disagree with that. Right. So,

172
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,480
Speaker 1: in terms of FED power and many headphones out there,

173
00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,800
Speaker 1: headphone manages out there, you know they have to act

174
00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:40,720
Speaker 1: sooner than later, right, So it's like a ballberell approach.

175
00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,520
Speaker 1: If you don't do it now, you get hurt later.

176
00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 1: If you do it now, you get hurt today. But

177
00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:45,559
Speaker 1: it's almost like if you let this thing continue to

178
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 1: run as we're seeing right now, it just feeds on itself.

179
00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:50,679
Speaker 1: We've seen that in the seventies. I'm not suggesting we're

180
00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,880
Speaker 1: going into the seventies, but inflation can really feed on itself.

181
00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,880
Speaker 1: Look at retail sales numbers yesterday, write some consumers are

182
00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,240
Speaker 1: starting to get concerned about inflation and cost So it's

183
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 1: this pull forward demand that we're seeing that's raising prices

184
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,320
Speaker 1: and it doesn't look like it's going away. So if

185
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,320
Speaker 1: you keep rates where they are, if you keep continue

186
00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,200
Speaker 1: to be a Dover's fed governor, it only exacerbates the problem.

187
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 1: It doesn't make the problem better, because eventually inflation gets

188
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,040
Speaker 1: to the point where it'll cool the consumer because it's

189
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,880
Speaker 1: a direct tax on the consumer. We know that of

190
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,040
Speaker 1: spending comes from the consumers in terms of g d P.

191
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,240
Speaker 1: So if you start to tax them in terms of

192
00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,960
Speaker 1: gas prices shout the cost food prices, that's not good

193
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 1: for the economy. So it's a your damn if you do,

194
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,560
Speaker 1: and your damn they've done. And I totally get it,

195
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,839
Speaker 1: but I think they that they have to start taking

196
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,800
Speaker 1: the Hawkers stance. And if Brainer gets in there and

197
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 1: Progressive fill those seats, it's just a continuation of this

198
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,280
Speaker 1: Doverish stance, which I believe can hurt the economy along

199
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,160
Speaker 1: the term. But Powell is going to be just as

200
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 1: Dovish right, So it's not like um sticking with him

201
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,640
Speaker 1: is going to do much um to to to suthe

202
00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 1: your fears on inflation. What what would uh what would

203
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,640
Speaker 1: you like to see? I would like to see them

204
00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,319
Speaker 1: start to paper even sooner than June number one and

205
00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,720
Speaker 1: number two, raise rates, surprise the market, right, raise rates

206
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,559
Speaker 1: in in uh at least surprise market doesn't seem like

207
00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 1: something the Fed does anymore. That time, it's I think,

208
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:19,560
Speaker 1: you know, what we've heard from a lot of folks

209
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,840
Speaker 1: when me think about you know, rates and maybe just

210
00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 1: this market in general, is what you don't want to see,

211
00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,360
Speaker 1: is the Fed surprise the market. That could be something

212
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,199
Speaker 1: given where we are evaluations, that could really be problematic

213
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,560
Speaker 1: for the market. But but you're not as concerned about that. No,

214
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,280
Speaker 1: I am, of course, right, I mean, and I get it,

215
00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 1: And I've been continuous, continuously saying that I believe we're

216
00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:44,079
Speaker 1: in a bubble, especially in technology, especially with the cryptocurrency

217
00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,760
Speaker 1: and n f t s and all the speculation. That's

218
00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,720
Speaker 1: because there's been a misallocation of capital as a result

219
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,319
Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve and what the federal fiscal policy

220
00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,520
Speaker 1: has done. So now valuations got too extreme levels. And

221
00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 1: I get it. It's listen to the damn if you

222
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,320
Speaker 1: do damn if you don't scenario. But if you don't

223
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,600
Speaker 1: do it now, it's gonna be even worse later. And

224
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,439
Speaker 1: that's the big problem that I'm concerned about. The other

225
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,839
Speaker 1: part two is when you think about people talking about

226
00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,319
Speaker 1: inflation being transitory and nod in that whole argument, it's

227
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,800
Speaker 1: more about is demand transitory? Right? I think demand maybe

228
00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,120
Speaker 1: trans story because it's pulled forward effect. And when you

229
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 1: have a pull forward effect and you have supplies to

230
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 1: start trying to keep up, then you have companies creating

231
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,040
Speaker 1: more capacity to try to keep up with demand. But

232
00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,439
Speaker 1: if all of a sudden demands slows down, you have

233
00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 1: all these companies with this extra capacity extra hiring extra employees,

234
00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,520
Speaker 1: and that's like a classic recession like we saw in

235
00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,280
Speaker 1: the seventies. That could happen. So listen. It's a very

236
00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 1: challenging situation. I think federal power fed Paler did a

237
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:39,880
Speaker 1: great job with COVID stepping in doing you had to

238
00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,920
Speaker 1: do when I get it, Um, But now I believe

239
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,880
Speaker 1: it's time to move faster than he's saying. What do

240
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,960
Speaker 1: you deal with you with client money? Then? Um, Paul,

241
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,120
Speaker 1: If I Phil, if I came to you with some

242
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:58,599
Speaker 1: fresh cash, where do you put it? Gold? Golden commodities.

243
00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,920
Speaker 1: So I've been consistently saying, you know, when you have

244
00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,600
Speaker 1: inflation acceleration like we're seeing. So if you go back

245
00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 1: since nineteen. Any time inflation has accelerated, gold and commodities

246
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,439
Speaker 1: have been an outperformer. Gold this year has not been

247
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,679
Speaker 1: an outperformer because rates have gone up, but since inflation

248
00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,839
Speaker 1: and CPI numbers of recent i've been north to five

249
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,079
Speaker 1: six percent. The real return now for bonds are negatives.

250
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 1: And that's why you're seeing gold stought to to break

251
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,720
Speaker 1: out here from a technical standpoint. So I think gold

252
00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,520
Speaker 1: could have legs and and commodities will can still have

253
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:29,600
Speaker 1: and could still have legs. So that's why I would

254
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,480
Speaker 1: position and rebalance into all right. When I hear that, Phil,

255
00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 1: I have to ask a question, given where we are today,

256
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,680
Speaker 1: when I hear commodities and or gold, how about crypto?

257
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,440
Speaker 1: Um is? How do you think about that in the

258
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,520
Speaker 1: context of some people say it's a store of value

259
00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:48,080
Speaker 1: like gold, Crypto doesn't even know who they are, you know,

260
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,200
Speaker 1: in terms of is it an as a class? Is

261
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,760
Speaker 1: it a currency? And is it inflation? Areas it deefinitly

262
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 1: in terms of investing, when to invest it's so new,

263
00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 1: it's it's complete, complete speculation. So I just don't think

264
00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,679
Speaker 1: anybody can really answer that with complete confidence. You know,

265
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,600
Speaker 1: in my view, I'm concerned about that because what I

266
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,400
Speaker 1: tell a lot of people who invest in crypto and

267
00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 1: n f T s and they made a lot of money,

268
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,680
Speaker 1: and that's great, and I'm very happy for them. But

269
00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,400
Speaker 1: the question I have for them is at what point

270
00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,000
Speaker 1: are you going to sell all these profits you made?

271
00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,440
Speaker 1: And they don't have an answer for that, and they say,

272
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:22,920
Speaker 1: like I was just talking to somebody this morning, said, oh,

273
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:24,679
Speaker 1: I bought something, it's at ten dollars and I was

274
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,320
Speaker 1: going to sell it at ten, but I think it

275
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 1: goes to twenty. And it's just like this continuous cycle

276
00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,959
Speaker 1: that people jump on and in the but in the end,

277
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 1: it's going to eventually collapse, just like markets collapse, right,

278
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 1: they don't just go straight up. But so if you

279
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 1: never sell any collapses, you made no money. So but

280
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,880
Speaker 1: you think it's all about the greater greater fool theory.

281
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,400
Speaker 1: You don't think that there's any value there. I'm not

282
00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,560
Speaker 1: saying there's no value there, right, I'm saying that there.

283
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 1: I think it's for real because it's three trillion plus market.

284
00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:52,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to be a bigcoin

285
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,280
Speaker 1: in the future or theory M or some other cryptocurrency.

286
00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,840
Speaker 1: It's complete speculation. So I think it's for real. But

287
00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,280
Speaker 1: I think it's time for investors to wake up and say, hey,

288
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,240
Speaker 1: you know everybody's hopping on this bandwagon. You don't want

289
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,240
Speaker 1: to follow the herd. Let's take some profits here and

290
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,000
Speaker 1: if it comes back down again, we could add to

291
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 1: the position. Right. The same thing with technology. I mean,

292
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,880
Speaker 1: nobody can dispute that we're in a bubble in terms

293
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,720
Speaker 1: of valuations, but it's time to take some risk off

294
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 1: the table, and there's nothing wrong in doing that. Phil,

295
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting your thoughts.

296
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:26,320
Speaker 1: Phil Palumbo, founder CEO and ce IO of Plumbo Wealth Management,

297
00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:29,440
Speaker 1: giving us his thoughts on the market and my takeaways, Matt,

298
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: Gold and commodity is very interesting and in uh and

299
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 1: but certainly in line with an inflationary outlook. All right,

300
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 1: let's get over to Katie gray Felt. She is our

301
00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 1: cross asset reporter here at Bloomberg, and I guess in

302
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 1: this case it goes across from bonds two stocks too. Crypto.

303
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: We've seen a big drop in Bitcoin yesterday, dropping um

304
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,960
Speaker 1: I guess, the most in September, falling below sixty dollars Ether,

305
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:03,520
Speaker 1: touching its lowest level this month. What's what's behind the drops,

306
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,720
Speaker 1: what's driving the fall? It's a great question and sort

307
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,080
Speaker 1: of the beauty with cryptos that you never really know. Uh,

308
00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,560
Speaker 1: some theories that I heard yesterday. I mean, you did

309
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 1: see the infrastructure package signed into law on Monday, and

310
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:23,560
Speaker 1: that has tax reporting requirements for broadly to find crypto brokers.

311
00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 1: This was a big issue for the industry back in September.

312
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,720
Speaker 1: But that that was known, so I wouldn't put a

313
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,680
Speaker 1: lot of weight in that, but it was named. The

314
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 1: other thing could be technicals, which is basically what you

315
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 1: say when you're not really sure. But if you do

316
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 1: look at the technicals, especially for Ether, I mean there

317
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,000
Speaker 1: were a lot of indicators from Fibonacci levels to candlesticks,

318
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,360
Speaker 1: all those fancy things that basically all told you the

319
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 1: same thing that you know, this rally was looking particularly stretched,

320
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 1: particularly when it came to Ether. I mean, let's not

321
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,360
Speaker 1: forget that Ether it's up what almost five percent this year,

322
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,800
Speaker 1: so it's probably not surprising to see that cool a

323
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 1: little bit, you know, I think crypto's mainstream when Bloomberg

324
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: Radio has a weekly sponsored crypto report, But I'm still

325
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 1: surprised Katie that a lot of the veterans on Wall Street,

326
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 1: the CEO is, whether it's a Jamie Diamond, it just

327
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like they have fully embraced this asset class

328
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 1: at all. They'll say, oh, we're providing some trading facilities

329
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,720
Speaker 1: for our clients if they want to trade in crypto,

330
00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: will be there, But it doesn't feel like they've really

331
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 1: embraced it. Is that. I mean, Diamond says it's worthless, worthless,

332
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,560
Speaker 1: so I guess he hasn't embraced it quite yet. No exactly,

333
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: but you know, I do see stories that they're staffing

334
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,480
Speaker 1: up their trading operations and things across the street. But again,

335
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 1: as Matt was saying, it doesn't feel like it's been

336
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,840
Speaker 1: embraced as a real asset class. Yeah, well, to your point,

337
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 1: I mean the tone from the top, but a lot

338
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,960
Speaker 1: of these banks is very negative. I mean, we could

339
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 1: run through that, but still they're kind of these banks

340
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 1: were trying are basically have to hold their nose and

341
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 1: offer these services because the client demand is there. I mean,

342
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 1: you can see that down to the level of E

343
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,000
Speaker 1: t f s. But it was interesting that you also

344
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:02,920
Speaker 1: heard the UBS chairman basically warn about you know, the

345
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,400
Speaker 1: staying power of crypto. So still a lot of skepticism.

346
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 1: But I think the clearest indication that this is, you know,

347
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 1: turning more mainstream, is just how worried the SEC is

348
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 1: about it. And it's not just the SEC, it's the Treasury,

349
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: it's the FED as well, particularly when it comes to

350
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,560
Speaker 1: stable coins. So I think that's a pretty strong sign

351
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 1: it's big enough to worry about. And we're starting to

352
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 1: see Gary Gensler, I mean, he understands and stuff. The

353
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,200
Speaker 1: new chairman of the SEC taught a course I guess

354
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 1: at M I T and yet he and yet they

355
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 1: allowed crypto e t F a crypto future and not

356
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 1: an underlying I still don't understand why they made that decision.

357
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,120
Speaker 1: Was it pressure from Wall Street because they needed to

358
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 1: deal in some kind of product? If you're gonna allow futures,

359
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: why not allow the underlying I don't understand. It all

360
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 1: comes back to control. I mean, we know that Genzler,

361
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 1: in particular, he doesn't or he wants more control over

362
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 1: the crypto exchanges, and so the logic there and letting

363
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: the futures e t F launches that those options they

364
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 1: trade on the CMME. That's that's regulated, whereas you know,

365
00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 1: just physical bitcoin, they don't really have any control over that.

366
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 1: And of course now we're doing all these gymnastics and

367
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,719
Speaker 1: trying to point I know, right, but I mean, now

368
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 1: you're in this situation where these funds have to pay

369
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 1: roll costs, they don't perfectly track the price of bitcoin UM.

370
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 1: So we're in a situation where is this really the

371
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 1: best for investors? A lot of people would tell you

372
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 1: know that if you truly want bitcoin exposure, you should

373
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 1: just buy basin exactly, if you want bitcoin exposure, why

374
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 1: would you wait around for an e t F Who cares?

375
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're buy bitcoin, go on corn bait

376
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 1: coin base and get it corn based. I would like

377
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: to go to cornas oo. But if you have mandates

378
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,439
Speaker 1: that prevent you from buying actual physical bitcoin or trading

379
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 1: bitcoin derivatives, this does make sense for you. But I mean,

380
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 1: we did see huge demand for the first of these

381
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 1: products to launch about a month ago, but it's really

382
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 1: really trying, you know what. I caught my eye, uh

383
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 1: and I talked about those Paul already, Katie. When we

384
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 1: see Amazon start to kick off payment UM companies like Visa,

385
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 1: for example, this is the beginning of that, and eventually

386
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 1: some blockchain technology is going to replace that. Amazon is

387
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: going to say from now on, eventually we're going to

388
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: accept so and so crypto coin. Maybe not Bitcoin or ether,

389
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 1: maybe not finance or doge, but it's going to be

390
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 1: something because they don't want to pay two percent, three percent,

391
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: four percent to Visa master Card m X. That is

392
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,119
Speaker 1: when it truly becomes mainstream, I would argue. And maybe

393
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 1: to your point, it's not any of the existing coins.

394
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: Maybe it's the digital dollar. You know, we know that

395
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 1: the fact Amazon creates its own the Amazon coin, you know,

396
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: it could it could happen and they not have done

397
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: that already. Hopefully someone from Amazon is listening, but I'm

398
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: sure we will see. We are seeing a tiny uptick

399
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: in uh, you know, actual businesses accepting crypto is payment,

400
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 1: but for now it does just seem to be a

401
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 1: vehicle of speculation at this point and trading as well.

402
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 1: Katy gray Fail, thank you so much for joining us,

403
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: Katie's Cross Asset reporter and Bloomberg Quick Take co anchor,

404
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 1: joining us here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio giving

405
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: us a weekly crypto report. How cool is that man,

406
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: we're talking crypto. We talked about it every day. It's

407
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,120
Speaker 1: so funny. She goes from the Treasury auctions, which are

408
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: you know, old and conservative and so easy to put

409
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: your finger onto, this crypto, which is so that's cross asset.

410
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. All right, talking about these markets,

411
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,360
Speaker 1: Matt and a lot of folks will say, boy, they

412
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 1: froth the look no further than some of these recent

413
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: I p os maybe the electric vehicle I p o s, Lucid, Rivan,

414
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: things like that, not to mention the daily fluctuations of

415
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 1: Tesla as a clear example of, Man, this market is

416
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 1: really frothy. Let's check in with somebody who's done this

417
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 1: for a time or two. Louis Navallier, Founder, chairman, CIO

418
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 1: and chief Compliance Officer of Navaller and Associates. Louie, thanks

419
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,479
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. When you see a Lucid,

420
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 1: when you see a Rivian and the big pops they

421
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 1: have and the huge valuations that they demand in this marketplace,

422
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 1: what does that tell you? Don't, by the way, Louie,

423
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: don't we just do navalier? Isn't that navalier? That's great?

424
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: Navalier is how we say it in America and nage

425
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 1: is how we say in Montreal. Okay, okay, anyway, Um, yeah,

426
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 1: we have a bubbles that have to be pricked. And um,

427
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: obviously the there's a lot of Tesla people, there's a

428
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: lot of E. S G investors that are all excited

429
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: about Ribbean and um Lucid, as it should be because

430
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 1: the vehicles are getting rave reviews. But um, we've had

431
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 1: too much too fast, and obviously the venture capitalists and

432
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: the insiders will be cashing out as their stock becomes unrestricted.

433
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's kind of like Quantum Escape

434
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: was a very exciting stock and then they unrestricted a

435
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 1: bunch of stock and the collapse. So that's what's going

436
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: to happen here. I feel you on this. Having said that,

437
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: I sure wish I bought Tesla ten years ago, and

438
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: there's no reason that I can still I still can't

439
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: understand the valuation. I don't know why Tesla is a

440
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: trillion dollar company even if they sell a million cars

441
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 1: a year, which they don't. Um, it doesn't make any

442
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: sense to me. And nonetheless that stock is a huge winner. Well,

443
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: Tesla did something very unique. Okay last year, if you

444
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: went onto YouTube there was all these Tesla fanatics pumping

445
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 1: the stock, but they were also getting paid to pump

446
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 1: the stock. They would get free power walls, free model threes,

447
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 1: and they gave away over eighty of those quarter million

448
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: dollar roadsters referral credits. Tesla's stop that at the end

449
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: of last year. So now when you want to YouTube,

450
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: what's happening is, uh, those Tesla fanatics are now sponsored

451
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: by Voltiwagon Group like e for Electric or other um

452
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: some of the Chinese e V companies. So Tesla kind

453
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: of lost a lot of its cheerleaders when it stopped

454
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: paying for the favorable um press. All right, look, let's

455
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: keep on this the e V discussion here, because we

456
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: just got finished with Cop twenty six over in Glasgow

457
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: talking about phasing out fossil fuels, phasing down, phasing down.

458
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: I guess pa down that's the problem, right They nobody's

459
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: willing to phase it out down exactly. So how do

460
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: you think about that, Louis, as you think about you're investing,

461
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 1: is this something that's in your strategy? Well, unfortunately, I'm

462
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: from Berkeley, California originally, and I can tell you that

463
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: what they did is totally delusional. You know Berkeley is

464
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: antinatural gas. You cannot put natural gas in a new

465
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: home in California. You can't even get a natural gas

466
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: generator unless you're a commercial business of some sort um,

467
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: so you have to do the walls, which helps in

468
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 1: phase energy and GENERAC. But uh, the war against natural

469
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: gas is stupid. We will still need natural gas in

470
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: two thousand thirty five. And the fact that the US

471
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: pledged and all fossil fuels for electricity generation is just

472
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: not gonna happen. It's not gonna happen. And one of

473
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: the things that most annoying is when they did the

474
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: Federal Drilling Band, which of course was over written by

475
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 1: a federal judge, but they're still hostile to drilling on

476
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 1: federal land. We're just pumping out methane and UH and

477
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: in the atmosphere because the wells were abandoned. Okay, now

478
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 1: the big energy companies cap them, but the small producers don't.

479
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: And so one of the plans and build back better

480
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: America's we got a cap the wells that wouldn't be

481
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: leaking if we didn't ban the drilly on total land

482
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: and most of that into Mexico on the premium basin.

483
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 1: So what do you got. What do you guys do

484
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: at Navalier in terms of energy? Well, we we do

485
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: like a lot of the midstream folks. And uh, you know,

486
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: energy is a cyclical business. Uh, it doesn't normally go

487
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 1: up this time of year. But Europe got caught flat footed.

488
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: And of course you know Germany's delay of the Russian

489
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: pipeline this week it's and everything's soaring. You know, Europe's

490
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: burning record coal right now. And so they're a little

491
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: bit of hypocritical too. So the thing that annoys me

492
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: the most, I'm sorry to be so passionate about this,

493
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: is that that Russian natural gas is five times dirtier

494
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: than our natural gas. You know, we clean our natural gas, Okay,

495
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: So um, you know there's a lot of there are

496
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: a lot of hypocrites in Scotland. I have one of

497
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: my associates there and it was it was interesting to

498
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: get the reports from the field. Never apologize for your passion, Louis,

499
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: but I'm sure that making money is probably up there

500
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,959
Speaker 1: in terms of the things that you feel strongly about.

501
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: So what do you do right now? As we've run

502
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: up so far, so fast? And you know, David Soloman

503
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: from Goldman's actually just told our Francine Lacroix that he

504
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 1: thinks greed has overtaken fear in this market. Um, how

505
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: do you feel about the SMP five? All the major

506
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 1: industries are overbought, but we're gonna stay overbought because November

507
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: is such a seasonally strong month. This is the week

508
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 1: to consolidate. Monday and Tuesday should be up. I don't

509
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: care about the holiday training next Wednesday and Friday. Um,

510
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: but Novembers of the season strong month, December seasonally strong

511
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: will because it is November, and then January will be

512
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: great because we go SURGI of all you and new

513
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: pension funny. So the most likely time for correction is

514
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: going to be uh sometime in Tybulary, but we're gonna

515
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: stay overbought till then. But the small caps have done

516
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: this month is just nuts, you know. You know, Citadel

517
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 1: runs the markets nowadays, and Citadel cannot handle order and balances.

518
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: So you know, Redd and Robin had proved that how

519
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: to squeeze squeeze algorithms. Um, you know, I'm very familiar

520
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: with this because I got a lot of subscribers when

521
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: I recommend think things are popping too, and even you know,

522
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: twenty billion dollar sized companies. So I'm uh, the out

523
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: goals cannot handle volume anymore. So as long as we

524
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: have these order and balances in this euphoria, we're going

525
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: to stay overbought and uh, but obviously you have to

526
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: correct once a year, so February is the most likely time.

527
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: It's been a while since this market has had a qurection,

528
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: and it is also calls for a lot of folks saying, oh,

529
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: it's time we get one soon. And Louis Navalier, founder, chairman,

530
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: ce IO and chief compliance officer at Navalier and Associates

531
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 1: joining is here, uh looking for more overbought in this

532
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: equity markets, perhaps a correction coming in February. With my takeaway,

533
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: there we have mixed markets today. Thanks for listening to

534
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

535
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 1: interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

536
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.

537
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 1: Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

538
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

539
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio