1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am aksha darti. This week a 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 1: climate science mystery. One year is out and a new 3 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: year is here. And if you're observing the broad trends 4 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: of climate change, that might be enough to worry you. 5 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: The ten hottest years on record have all occurred in 6 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: the past decade, and twenty twenty four isn't bucking the trend. 7 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: In December, the European Union's Kupernikus unit said that when 8 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: the final numbers are tallied, it is virtually certain that 9 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four will be the hottest year ever and 10 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: for the first time, the global average temperature for the 11 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: entire year is likely to go past the threshold of 12 00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: one point five degrees celsius above pre industrial levels. In 13 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: his New Year's message, UN Secretary General Antonio Guteriz said, 14 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: this is quote climate breakdown in real time. If you've 15 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: been following this, it might be my numbing to hear 16 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: scientists repeat hottest year, hottest year, hottest ear like a 17 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: broken record year after year. But it's pretty significant if 18 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: you go past one point five C and something worth 19 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: unpacking because it's going to affect all of us. One 20 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: point five C is the goal under the Paris Agreement 21 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: that all governments agreed on. It's also resulted in corporations 22 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: tying their net zero goals to the one point five 23 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: sea target. So this week I wanted to speak with 24 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: two Bloomberg Green reporters who have followed this closely, Eric 25 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: Rosston in New York and Zarah Heirgee in Washington, d c. 26 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: Oh. 27 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: Eric, let's start with you, because you and I both 28 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: know that this one point five c breach is important, 29 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: and yet it is not quite the breach of the 30 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 1: Paris Agreement, right. 31 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 2: It is significant. There's been so much attention in recent 32 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 2: years to the one point five degree goal, and there's 33 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 2: also been increasing concern as global temperatures are approaching it. 34 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: It's important to remember, though, that the Paris goal is 35 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 2: understood to be an average like over twenty years. They're 36 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 2: concerned about a one point five degree c temperature rise, 37 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 2: and so this is not great, but technically it's not 38 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 2: the ballgame. 39 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: Still going about one point five degree celsius for the 40 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: entire year is pretty dramatic, but there was also a 41 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: build up towards it, with phenomena like al Ninio contributing 42 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: to it. Do we know how much of the one 43 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: point five ce was climate change and how much was 44 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 1: other stuff. 45 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: It's a great question, and I suppose the answer is no, 46 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 2: which is what makes it a great question. Climate change 47 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: is always adding more heat, and so when you get 48 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 2: in al Nino and global weather is a little hotter 49 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 2: than normal, you're more likely to get a record temperature, 50 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 2: as we did in twenty twenty three and now in 51 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,959 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four as well. And consequently, when there's a 52 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 2: La Nina, which is a cooling phase, you get the 53 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: warming signal, but there's like a little speed bump, and 54 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 2: so those years tend to be like the fifth hottest years. Ever, 55 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: what's concerning this year has less to do with the 56 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 2: actual final numbers one point five. It has to do 57 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 2: with the fact that that simple rule of thumb climate 58 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 2: change plus La Nina, climate change plus El Nino, it 59 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: doesn't explain what's happening. And scientists can't explain with confidence 60 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: yet why this year is so much hotter than it 61 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: has been a past and what makes it a kind 62 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: of who done it is? They've assembled some suspects, but 63 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 2: they just can't say which one or which combination is 64 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: responsible for the numbers. They're seeing from twenty twenty four. 65 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: A scientific mystery. I'm all is up for one, but 66 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 1: somehow when it comes to climate science, not really. 67 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, it's ominous because climate change is bad and 68 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 2: we don't want more of it. But it's also concerning 69 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 2: because notwithstanding the twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four records, 70 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 2: scientists are afraid that it could signal an acceleration in warming. 71 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 2: And if that's the case, we're not looking anymore at 72 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: a couple of years that were in aberration. We're looking 73 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 2: at a potential scenario that's worse than the pathway scientists 74 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: had assumed we've been on. 75 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 1: So acceleration, I mean, there was a period about ten 76 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: years ago where people were talking about this quote unquote 77 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: hiatus when warming had slowed down. Of course, that turned 78 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 1: out to be spoonious data. Is there any worry that 79 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: this acceleration might also be kind of spurious? 80 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 2: A number of scientists have told me that what they're 81 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 2: seeing now with these faster moving temperatures feels similar to 82 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 2: that period of the hiatus ten or fifteen years ago 83 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: that turned out to be sort of a data artifact, 84 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 2: like temperatures just kind of started moving up again, and 85 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 2: also there were important updates to the data itself that 86 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 2: sort of corrected what turned out to be a kind 87 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: of bias. I think scientists, a couple of them have 88 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 2: told me that they're more concerned about this because they 89 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 2: understand it better. All through that hiatus period, one of 90 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 2: the things you heard was, well, we're not sure what 91 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: it is, but really you can have like fifteen or 92 00:05:55,120 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 2: twenty years of flatline temperatures and still not echo the 93 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 2: prediction range for climate change. What's different now is that 94 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 2: they have these suspects, and so there's there's a much 95 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 2: stronger physical underpinning to the concerns, even though again they're 96 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 2: just not sure what's causing the spikes. 97 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: Okay, so who done it? Who are the suspects, and 98 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: what do we know about them, and which ones are 99 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: sort of the highly suspected and which ones we might 100 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: want to drop out. 101 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: So there is, as I said, there's climate change that 102 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 2: makes things hotter. There is an al Nino through through 103 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 2: the spring of twenty twenty four, and that made things hotter. 104 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 2: The sun has entered the sort of increasing output of 105 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 2: it of its eleven year cycle, and so that adds 106 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: like a little bit of heat, but sort of a 107 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 2: rounding error. The real culprit does have to do with 108 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 2: these sulfur aerosols that humans put out. So nothing is 109 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 2: clean in climate change, right, there's no free lunch. And 110 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: so after you negotiation, the world's shipping industry a few 111 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 2: years ago was able to make a path to reduce 112 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 2: the sulfur content of the fuels they use. And that's 113 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 2: great because that means less pollution. 114 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: However, because this sulfur pollution causes air pollution, especially at ports, 115 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: and that's really bad for humans. But there's a climate 116 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: effect that comes from those sulfur particles too. 117 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: Right, So that sulfur pollution is acid rain, right, and 118 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: so that's what we wanted to get rid of in 119 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 2: the West in the eighties and nineties. But there is 120 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: this cooling effect. So all that shipping pollution actually had 121 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 2: a little cooling effect. So when there was an eighty 122 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: percent drop off in the sulfur pollution from shipping, there 123 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: was no longer these chemicals to sort of reflect heat, 124 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 2: and so it got a little warmer, particularly in the 125 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 2: North Atlantic. Another thing that I think people just haven't 126 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 2: talked about enough is a really monumental decline in these 127 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 2: aerosol emissions from China. So between the shipping regulations and 128 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 2: China and further progress in the US and Europe, we're 129 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 2: seeing the disappearance of these cooling chemicals and that consequently 130 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: is making things a little bit hotter. 131 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: But is that a one time thing? Because like once 132 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: the a results have disappeared and have led to this 133 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: additional warming, will they continue to contribute to warming like 134 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: carbon dioxide does, which is a greenhouse gas that keeps 135 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: on absorbing the heat. 136 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 2: It's a short term phenomenon, right, The atmosphere is catching up. 137 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: There's conversations about whether we should spray the stratosphere with 138 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 2: these chemicals on purpose in order to cool the atmosphere. 139 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: Quote unquote geo engineering. 140 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, And one of the problems with that is if 141 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 2: you ever stopped doing that, you'll get a heat spike 142 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 2: like we're doing now. A big paper that made us 143 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 2: splash and added a lot of explanation to what we've 144 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 2: been seeing. Paper came out a month or two ago 145 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 2: about how they ben like we're missing clouds. Low lying 146 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 2: clouds do us a huge favor because they reflect a 147 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 2: lot of sunlight, just sort of in the way that 148 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 2: polar at ice caps do, and so the fact that 149 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 2: we're starting to miss these low lying clouds, it's a 150 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 2: real red flag for scientists because again, if that's just 151 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:25,559 Speaker 2: a blip and they come back, then we're on our 152 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 2: warming trajectory we've been familiar with. But if that marks 153 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 2: a change in the Earth's system itself, then we could 154 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: be in line for more warming than we expected. 155 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: And Zara, we talk about these temperature goals because well, 156 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: they are goals and they are very important, but there 157 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: are some real life implications off this level of warming, 158 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: and particularly in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, 159 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: we saw some of the most extreme weather events around 160 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 1: the world. So beyond the fact that there is an 161 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 1: arbitrary one point five seagull, why does it matter that 162 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: we pay attention to these reports? 163 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 3: So I guess there are a couple of reasons. First is, 164 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 3: you know, when we think about one point five C 165 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: as a goal and one point five C being broken 166 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 3: in a particular year, I think something that all of 167 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 3: us have heard when we've talked to scientists is like 168 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 3: last year with sort of a preview and what a 169 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 3: warmer world looks like. So when you have a full 170 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 3: year where the temperature is basically above one point five CE. 171 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 3: We saw the impacts of that in terms of extreme 172 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 3: whether at least some of the impacts, and how destructive 173 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 3: and uncomfortable it is. It's a reminder that we don't 174 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 3: want to live in that all the time. I mean, 175 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 3: when it's really hot, when we're getting devastating hurricanes, when 176 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 3: we're getting brutal floods. That's not good. It kills people, 177 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 3: it's bad for economy. I mean, it's it's not a 178 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 3: great way to live, and it's a reminder of what 179 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 3: is at stake in the long run as these impacts 180 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 3: get worse. And so when we think about this goal 181 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 3: and passing this goal, because that is the trajectory that 182 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 3: we are on undeniably and something that's come out of 183 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 3: my reporting, you know, this is what worth talking about, 184 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 3: having to deal with more and more these kind of 185 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 3: impacts all the time, and how disruptive they are. 186 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: And the one point five C goal again is one 187 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: that we talk about at cop meetings where there are all 188 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: these countries coming together wanting to find new ways of 189 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,079 Speaker 1: addressing the challenge. But we also talk about it at 190 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: corporate level because a lot of the net zero targets 191 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: are tied to one point five C or a lot 192 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: of the banks are trying to fund things so that 193 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: they can keep temperatures below one point five C. How 194 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: should they be thinking about perhaps changing their goals, finding 195 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: new ways talking about a new goal, like what is 196 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: it that they should think about if we have gone 197 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: beyond one point five c? 198 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 3: H One point five c as a goal is such 199 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 3: a tricky thing, and there are so many like caught 200 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: up emotions in it. I think a lot of scientists 201 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 3: sort of hate it as a goal because in a 202 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 3: way it feels rather arbitrary in the sense that there's 203 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 3: nothing that is different at one point four to nine 204 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 3: versus one point five versus one point five to one c. 205 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 3: You know, those small increments. We can't actually tease out 206 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 3: a lot of differences there, and so to them it's 207 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 3: just we need to talk about trying to reduce or 208 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 3: keep warming down as much as possible, and every tenth 209 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 3: of degree matters. But obviously goals are important, and one 210 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 3: point five C has been this rallying cry that we 211 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 3: saw really truly drove momentum on climate action, and it 212 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 3: is something that as you said, governments and companies can use. 213 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 3: They like to have a number that they can push towards. 214 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 3: You know, one of the things that I think about 215 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 3: a lot that has been really important about one point 216 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 3: five C is I was taught with Sam at the 217 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 3: Gross from the Brookings Institution, and she was saying, you know, 218 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 3: it wasn't that long ago that we were on a 219 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 3: traructory of three C four C degree and now we're not. 220 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 3: And that's sort of because we set on this goal 221 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 3: and people really tried to reach it. But the thing is, 222 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 3: the goal was always really ambitious and potentially always out 223 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 3: of reach, and now we're sort of hitting up against 224 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 3: that point when it's really becoming clear that we're not 225 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 3: going to reach it. And so the question is does 226 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 3: it lose its value as a goal, and do we 227 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 3: need to have a new goal? But in the sense, 228 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 3: you know, the thing that's tricky about this, and this 229 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 3: is something that David Victor, who's a professor at the 230 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 3: University of California at San Diego, told me, is right now, 231 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 3: there's no context out there where groups can talk about 232 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 3: things other than one point five SE and not be 233 00:13:55,679 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 3: accused of backsliding. And I think there are people who 234 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 3: would love to discuss a goal that's a little bit different, 235 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 3: that seems a little bit more realistic, like a one 236 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 3: point six or a one point seven or a one 237 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 3: point seven to five, But at the end of the day, 238 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: you still the actions that you're going to take to 239 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 3: meet that goal versus one point five are pretty similar, 240 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 3: and that you need to figure out how you're going 241 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,479 Speaker 3: to cut your emissions really fast, and companies and governments 242 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 3: aren't doing enough of that, so it sort of doesn't 243 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 3: matter what their goal is because they need to be 244 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 3: doing more. And that's sort of the bottom line. 245 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: After the break, more from my conversation with Zara and Eric. 246 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: And by the way, if you've been enjoying this episode, 247 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 248 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It helps other listeners find 249 00:14:53,800 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: the show. This is a place where science and politics 250 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: interacts in interesting ways. So the arbitrary nature of this goal, Eric, 251 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: the fact that this is one point five C not 252 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: one point six C, just give us a history. Why 253 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: is it that we have these goals one point five 254 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: C and two C. 255 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 2: Well, while you're right, while it started out arbitrary, it's 256 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 2: become less arbitrary. And that's because the UN diplomatic body 257 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 2: that hosts the All nations to talk about climate change 258 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 2: every year, they asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 259 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 2: very specifically in Paris when they were doing the Paris Agreement, 260 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 2: to really study and understand the difference between one point 261 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: five C and two degrees C, and that led to 262 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 2: a super influential report in twenty eighteen that really for 263 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: the first time puts specificity into what one point five 264 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 2: I've seen means versus two degree cee versus one degree C, 265 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: which is now in the rear view window. So it's 266 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 2: somewhere between arbitrary and it's not a threshold, as Zara said, 267 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 2: you know, it's not a threshold. It's not a cliff. 268 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 2: But every ton of CO two that we put up 269 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 2: in the air matters. 270 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: But we are also living in twenty twenty five, sort 271 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: of a year after all these elections that happen around 272 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: the world, and we are seeing many parts of the world, 273 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: including where you live Zara in the US, put in 274 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: leaders who are likely to be very hostile to climate policy. 275 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 1: So at the exact time that we are in the 276 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: hottest year reaching one point five CE we're also getting 277 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: politicians who are unlikely to be doing much on climate. 278 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: How should people make sense of this moment? 279 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: I'm still trying to make sense of this moment. I mean, 280 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 3: I think it's awkward, but it really gets at something 281 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 3: we've seen over and over again when it comes to 282 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 3: climate politics, and it's really sort of coming to a head, 283 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 3: which is that bringing down emissions and dealing with the 284 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 3: climate crisis is hard, it costs money, and it's scary. 285 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: I do think it's important to remember that the last 286 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:17,439 Speaker 3: time that Donald Trump was elected president in the US, 287 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 3: there were some surprising outcomes that sort of led to 288 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 3: the we are all in coalition and kind of a 289 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 3: bumping up of the one point five c rallying cry 290 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 3: and people sort of pushing back on that, and so 291 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: there's always sort of this push and pull. But what's 292 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 3: hard about this is there is you know, you can 293 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 3: have climate action from the bottom up and the top down, 294 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 3: and I think we've seen that the most effective action 295 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 3: really involves that top down. And when you're not having 296 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 3: countries setting new regulations like that's going to push back progress. 297 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 3: And so people recognizing that as much as you have 298 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 3: politicians talking and downplaying these issues. They're not going to 299 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 3: go away with the type of policies that they're advocating, 300 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 3: and they're just pushing down the road the problems that 301 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 3: are going to grow and arise out of this. 302 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: Eric, you talked about the twenty eighteen report where scientists 303 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: sort of work through what one point five C means. 304 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: And in some way, scientists are very good at doing that. 305 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: If you give them a goal, they'll tell you what 306 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: is needed to meet it. So is one point five 307 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 1: SE still possible even though technically everybody says we are 308 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 1: going to preach it. 309 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, So scientists started talking about overshoot when they realized 310 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 2: we may not stay within our carbon budget and temperatures 311 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 2: may rise beyond one point five sea or even higher temperatures, 312 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: And it became a word that's it's sort of an 313 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 2: impetus to find ways to correct the problem that we've 314 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 2: now created. 315 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 1: And so these are technologies like director capture, which will 316 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: remove carbon dioxide from the air. What else is there 317 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 1: this list of dealing with overshoot? 318 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 2: The biggest tool in our toolbox, though, is not polluting more. 319 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: You know, we're still putting up more than one hundred 320 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 2: million tons of co two a day from fossil fuel 321 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,479 Speaker 2: and cement making, and that is the main thing we 322 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 2: need to do to prevent overshoot. You can't address overshoot 323 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 2: until you stop making the problem worse. 324 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: If we do eventually get serious about these goals and 325 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 1: you know, want to still stay beyond one point five, 326 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 1: see overshoot might be an option. But if the politics 327 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: is hard right now, how much harder is it going 328 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: to be when you're trying to convince people you have 329 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: to do all these weird wacco things that are going 330 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: to be necessary in a world of overshoot. 331 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: I mean, I think the assumption is that overshoot is 332 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 3: already on the table. When a lot of people are 333 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 3: talking about one point five still being alive, they're actually 334 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 3: the unspoken part is they are assuming or banking on overshoot, 335 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 3: this idea that we are going to go above one 336 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 3: point five and then have the tools necessary to eventually 337 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 3: bring it down. The concern about focusing too much on 338 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 3: overshoot is that then we sort of lose sight of 339 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,719 Speaker 3: the fact that we need to bring emissions down, not 340 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 3: just invest in the technologies that can help pull it 341 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 3: out of the air and rely on that or overly 342 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 3: rely on that because we don't know a lot about 343 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 3: how that will work. And so I feel like the 344 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 3: answer is we have to do both. That's not actually 345 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 3: a pitch you have to make to people. I think 346 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 3: that's just where we are today, and you're sort of 347 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 3: starting to see it with the policies that came underway 348 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 3: with the Biden administration and how actually a lot of 349 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 3: the companies and industries that are going to need or 350 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 3: rely on overshoot are the ones getting text credits and 351 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 3: sort of investing on it. And the problem is you 352 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 3: don't want them to overinvest on that versus not actually 353 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: changing anything to their business. But I think we actually 354 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 3: need to talk about it it more as something that 355 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 3: is on the table now and just dig into a 356 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 3: little bit more about what that looks like. But I 357 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 3: don't think it's a matter of if or when, Like 358 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 3: we're here and we're dealing with it, and it's just 359 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 3: maybe changing what that means and what we need to 360 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 3: do about it. 361 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: Well, climate change one point five and twenty twenty five, 362 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: it's going to be a messier. Thank you both for 363 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: at least setting the stage for what is going to 364 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 1: be a messier and we'll talk a lot more about it. 365 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you for listening to Zero. 366 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 1: And now for the sound of the week, which I 367 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: should want you is not a gunshot. That's the sound 368 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: of a balloon filled with hydrogen exploding. Now take a 369 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: listen to what it sounds like when the same size 370 00:21:53,040 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: balloon has hydrogen mixed with oxygen exploding this episode, Please 371 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: take a moment to rate or review the show on 372 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a friend 373 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: or with someone who likes breaking records. You can get 374 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: in touch at zero port at Bloomberg dot net. Zero's 375 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: producer is might Lee Raw. Bloomberg's head of podcast is 376 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 1: Sage Bauman, and head of Talk is Brendan Newnan. Our 377 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: theme music is composed by Wonderly Special Thanks to Sharon Chen, 378 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: Shwan Wagner, Ethan Steinberg, and Jessica beck I am Aksha 379 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: Drati Back soon.