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Speaker 1: This is a Broomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.
Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by marks Pan at l LP,
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Speaker 1: the stocks falling, government bonds rising in Germany with gold
Speaker 1: and a yen after explosions rock to Brussels airport, departure
Speaker 1: hall and a downtown subway station. We checked the markets
Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg and
Speaker 1: U Stock Index futures are falling as well, with SMP
Speaker 1: even A futures down seven points, now EVENI futures down
Speaker 1: forty and NASA documni futures down eighteen. The decks in
Speaker 1: Germany's down a quarter percent, the CAC in Paris and
Speaker 1: FT one hundred both down more than six tenths percent.
Speaker 1: Tenure Treasury up three thirty seconds, the yield one point
Speaker 1: nine zero percent yield on the two year point eight
Speaker 1: four percent Nimex screw oil down four tens percent or
Speaker 1: fifteen cents to already one thirty six of barrel Co
Speaker 1: Mics Gold up seven ten percent or eight dollar seventy
Speaker 1: cents to twelve fifty nine announced the euro a dollar
Speaker 1: twelve nineteen, the yen one eleven point seven six. We're
Speaker 1: also watching travel related stocks. They are moving lower in
Speaker 1: early trading after flights in and out of Brussels were
Speaker 1: canceled and security precautions were stepped up at travel hubs
Speaker 1: around Europe. Carnival down three point six percent this morning,
Speaker 1: Southwest Airlines down one point six per sound, Delta down
Speaker 1: three percent, an American Airlines Group down three point four percent,
Speaker 1: and as a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen Moscow,
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Obviously, security being stepped up at
Speaker 1: airports and travel destinations around the world. According to The
Speaker 1: New York Times, the New York Police Department increasing its
Speaker 1: police presence at airports here. It is apparently all but
Speaker 1: impossible to get in or out of Brussels at the moment.
Speaker 1: The only way to get there is by car. Trains
Speaker 1: have been stopped and the airports have been closed, and
Speaker 1: Michael Delta eight was the last plane in I believe
Speaker 1: Atlanta to Brussels. It landed in Brussels, it was taken
Speaker 1: to a different part of the airport away from the terminal.
Speaker 1: Flights to Brussels being diverted to Amsterdam and to Frankfurt
Speaker 1: Star Wars hotels. We've been talking about being unlockdown. Early
Speaker 1: trading has opened its down half a per cent, Delta
Speaker 1: Airlines off three percent, American Airlines off three per cent.
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer is the head of the Eurasia Group. Ian
Speaker 1: was on with us just yesterday. We were talking about
Speaker 1: the outlook for politics in Europe and Ian, I know
Speaker 1: this is very very early days. Is this, I'm wondering,
Speaker 1: going to be a game changer for any of the
Speaker 1: political events, the whole question of refugees, the borders in Europe,
Speaker 1: the Brexit vote in Britain. Or do we become somewhat
Speaker 1: as the markets appear to be today, inured to this
Speaker 1: sort of thing. It's going to be part of daily life. Uh,
Speaker 1: it is becoming part of daily life, and certainly for
Speaker 1: the markets. But let's recognize the important trends that are
Speaker 1: happening in Europe right now. The Germans have worked incredibly
Speaker 1: uh incredibly strongly to try to get a deal with
Speaker 1: the Turkish government that would keep refugees in Turkey and
Speaker 1: would provide visa liberalization for the Turkish citizens to get
Speaker 1: into Europe. That's been incredibly controversial. That will become much
Speaker 1: harder to get through as a consequence of the attacks
Speaker 1: that we've seen today in Brussels. We have a Brexit
Speaker 1: referendum happening on June um. The one of the issues
Speaker 1: the Brits aren't finding your very appealing right now. Part
Speaker 1: of that is refugees in political crisis. Part of that
Speaker 1: is general malaise and lack of economic growth in this
Speaker 1: part of the world. That gets harder. It's going to
Speaker 1: be a tougher slog to keep the Brits in Europe
Speaker 1: as a consequence, and Merkele her weakness. She's been down
Speaker 1: over approval rates UM in over just over the last
Speaker 1: few months, in part because of the lack of support
Speaker 1: for her refugee policy. She got hit hard UM in
Speaker 1: state elections over the course of the past couple of weeks. UM.
Speaker 1: This is yet another blow to her the most important
Speaker 1: leader in Europe consistently since the two thousand and eight
Speaker 1: financial crisis very much on the back foot now and
Speaker 1: worse as a consequence of these attacks in Belloment. Finally, France,
Speaker 1: a country that you know has had a hard time
Speaker 1: meeting the deficit targets, that's basically turned their back on
Speaker 1: authority measures to say we need to focus on security
Speaker 1: right now. Clearly that's going to be a double down
Speaker 1: message for the French as well as for many other
Speaker 1: European countries. Um the impact for economic outlook for things
Speaker 1: like tourism and for trade, given Shangan and the border
Speaker 1: issues going to be much more negative. I look ian
Speaker 1: it the language after November of last year, after thirty
Speaker 1: people died in Paris, and when you look at the
Speaker 1: EU websites and all that, I think of the Jean
Speaker 1: Monet conference of two thousand fifteen or three worthies walk
Speaker 1: in a room and pontificate about international relations. Does that
Speaker 1: end with this events today? I don't know if I'd
Speaker 1: say it ends. Uh, it's it's just we're going to continue.
Speaker 1: We're just in the spiral where what it means to
Speaker 1: be Europe isn't what it used sal right, Well, no
Speaker 1: one has the will I mean that we don't have
Speaker 1: leadership I mean, one thing I suppose that's thankful is
Speaker 1: that the Americans aren't really very affected by terrorism in Europe,
Speaker 1: so it's not going to have much of an impact
Speaker 1: on what has already been an almost unprecedentedly divisive US
Speaker 1: presidential election in part around precisely these issues. I mean,
Speaker 1: god forbid, you have these kinds of things happening in
Speaker 1: the US over the coming months, would have a much,
Speaker 1: much greater impact on the way we think about two
Speaker 1: thousand sixteen. But as for Europe now, I mean, the
Speaker 1: trends have been support for the French Party UH, the
Speaker 1: Front National supports for the Alternatives for deutsch Land in
Speaker 1: Germany UM and many many other the Swedish Democrats, the
Speaker 1: list goes on across all of these countries. You've had
Speaker 1: very strong support UM that for for UM UH unstatus
Speaker 1: non establishment parties that are on the fringe. This is
Speaker 1: going to lead to a greater degree. I just saw
Speaker 1: a BBC tweet, a BBC breaking news and once again
Speaker 1: they're gonna light up the Eiffel Tower, and this time
Speaker 1: it will be the coverage of the Belgian flag, the
Speaker 1: colors of the Belgian flag and Ian It will be
Speaker 1: in solidarity. What is the Ian Bremer to do list
Speaker 1: for the leaders of institutions in Europe dealing with suicide terrorism. Well,
Speaker 1: and one thing that you're going to see, um, will
Speaker 1: be a move away from privacy and a move towards
Speaker 1: much greater surveillance. I mean, after the Paris bombings, you
Speaker 1: may remember that there was an enormous division within France.
Speaker 1: The former president Sarkozy said that he wanted to take
Speaker 1: the eleven thousand members of the French community citizens that
Speaker 1: were on the watch list, the terrorists watch lists. He
Speaker 1: wanted to put them under house arrest and he wanted
Speaker 1: to have ankle bracelets on them. UM. In Britain right now, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, if you see someone in the school system
Speaker 1: that you think UM is susceptible UM to radical Islam,
Speaker 1: is act in a way that you find suspicious, you know,
Speaker 1: you tell the authorities and they basically give them counseling. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, this is a slippery slope, as I'm sure
Speaker 1: you can imagine, and overwhelmingly the push is going to
Speaker 1: be away from privacy and specifically away from undifferentiated rights
Speaker 1: for those that are thought to be suspect for radical
Speaker 1: Islam and for joining a terrorist cause. Um, and increasingly
Speaker 1: you start moving into an environment where these people are
Speaker 1: treated very very differently. Um and uh and and that
Speaker 1: that indeed, Um, you know there was a worry of
Speaker 1: at in the US action nine eleven after the Patriot Act,
Speaker 1: and you saw some of the excesses for example, that
Speaker 1: ends up leading to the Snowden scandal that hasn't yet
Speaker 1: occurred as much in Europe. You'll see much more of that.
Speaker 1: What do we expect in terms of the political fallout
Speaker 1: in in the short run from this, We're gonna see
Speaker 1: heightened security. Do we see Shangon shutdown? Um? Well, Shangan
Speaker 1: is effectively suspended across many of the borders at present. Um.
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see again that this is incremental.
Speaker 1: If if this had been a bolt from the blue,
Speaker 1: then we'd be having a conversation of oh my god
Speaker 1: as to the end of Shangan, it's not. We've had
Speaker 1: a number of significant terrorist attacks in Turkey, one just
Speaker 1: a few days ago. We've of course had significant bombings
Speaker 1: twice now um in Paris that Brussels and Belgium has
Speaker 1: been on higher ever since the November bombings in Paris.
Speaker 1: This sadly is not a prize, and specifically coming on
Speaker 1: from the heels of the arrest of one of those
Speaker 1: involved in the Paris bonding, the remaining at large UM
Speaker 1: in the last couple of days, I think anyone involved
Speaker 1: in monitoring terrorism was aware of the fact that that
Speaker 1: could lead UM to any cells that existed that were
Speaker 1: connected to that individual would lead to those attacks. So
Speaker 1: not not a surprise here at all, one of the
Speaker 1: places that you would consider a principal target, but one
Speaker 1: of many, many tipping points. I mean, is this is
Speaker 1: this bigger than one thousand German women being sexually assaulted
Speaker 1: on New Year's Ease. No, I would say that was
Speaker 1: bigger because that was more of a tipping point that
Speaker 1: really undermined the leadership you had. This is not a
Speaker 1: tipping point. This is just piling off within the piling
Speaker 1: honor stunning headlines. Ian Bremer, the French Prime minister, after
Speaker 1: the Belgium attacks, we are at war? That from the
Speaker 1: French press, who are we at war with? Well, you
Speaker 1: know again that sounds like such an extraordinary headline, so
Speaker 1: you realize he said the exact same thing after the
Speaker 1: Paris bombings in November. So I mean, you know, we're
Speaker 1: certainly at at war um with those that would deign
Speaker 1: to commit terrorist acts against our fellow citizens. But what
Speaker 1: we're willing to do to proselytize that war is rather
Speaker 1: different than you know, sort of the wars that our
Speaker 1: nations have fought in the past. UM. And and that's
Speaker 1: very clear, UM. The the extant conditions that are causing um,
Speaker 1: these these terrorist attacks are largely not in Europe. They're
Speaker 1: largely in the Middle East. They've led they've led to
Speaker 1: millions of refugees. UM. They are governments that are governed poorly. UM.
Speaker 1: They do not have a lot of the economic wherewithal
Speaker 1: that they used to because of the oil prices being
Speaker 1: in the tank, um, I mean, and because of extraordinary corruption.
Speaker 1: I mean, we know about those issues. Those fixes are
Speaker 1: no closest day after the Brussels bombing than they were
Speaker 1: yesterday before, and so as the consequences. But this is
Speaker 1: not in Brazil. You have a crisis, political crisis that
Speaker 1: is super hute that it's actually bringing down the existing system.
Speaker 1: That the terrorist crisis is insufficiently we have to leave
Speaker 1: it there. Ian Bremer, generous of you to be with
Speaker 1: us these last two days. We continue with another hour
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg's surveillance