1 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 2: I think we will have greater divisions than today between 3 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 2: America and anyone who depends on America for their security, 4 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: and let's call it China and potentially Russia. What I 5 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: think is interesting is where will the rest of the 6 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 2: world be in this divide. 7 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. This year, 8 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: voters around the world have the ability to affect markets, countries, 9 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: and economies like never before. We've created this series to 10 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: help you make sense of it all. I'm alegro Stratton, 11 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: I made Room Wooldridge, and I'm Stephanie Flanders. So at 12 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: the top of the show you just heard from our 13 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: guests this week. He's the former director of the international 14 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: affairs think tank Chathamhouse, Robin Niblett. He joins us for 15 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: a conversation about how China will factor into the US 16 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: and UK elections. Steph, we did that one together, didn't we. 17 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, we did it. We did a few weeks back. 18 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 3: We did not have the benefit of Adrian's wisdom, but 19 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 3: it sort of took us back to China, which I 20 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 3: guess we haven't focused on so much in the last 21 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 3: few weeks and you know, he specifically you think of 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 3: it a little bit when you see these sort of 23 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: D Day commemorations. You know, he talks about the challenge 24 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: for Europe of rethinking their position, their geopolitical positioning in 25 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 3: the world, and whether or not governments are sort of 26 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 3: stepping up sufficiently to that challenge, and actually contrast it 27 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 3: with the Asia, where he feels they've always been much 28 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: more engaged in the regional rivalry and the threat it pos. 29 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: Also on the show today, we're going to talk about 30 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: India once again. On Monday, exit polls, suggested Prime Minister again, 31 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: we should now know, I mean we should have known. 32 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: We have all covered politics and to know that you 33 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: should never talk about an elections for the actual results 34 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: as well. 35 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 3: I mean, in our defense we did talk about it 36 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 3: was just the exit poles. And Rushie Battier, who was 37 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 3: correspondent on the ground, was mentioning that in some past 38 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: elections the exit poles had not been very effective, but 39 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 3: actually the last couple they had worked. And I think 40 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 3: there is a very interesting question why Modi's BJP party 41 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 3: performed so dramatically. 42 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: Okay, well, we'll cross back over to New Delhi later 43 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: in the show when I'm going to speak to one 44 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: of our reporters, Swatty Gupta, on how India voted and 45 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: how those coalition talks are shaking out. But first of all, 46 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: shall we guys dip into the election that is happening 47 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: all around us. It feels like a very busy week 48 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: it has been, and. 49 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 3: Adrian, I've been watching some of your tweets and writing 50 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 3: this week and just you think things are just going 51 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 3: to get worse for the Conservative Party. 52 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 4: Absolutely. I thought up to now that this was quite 53 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 4: a boring election. You know, a Labor victory, a Tory defeat, 54 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 4: and you know, a change of government. Everything was going predictably. 55 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 4: But then Nigel Farage came in and that raises the 56 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 4: possibility that we'll get a Labor super victory and a 57 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 4: Tory super defeat and a real transformation in the nature 58 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 4: of the right in this country, the Trumpification of the 59 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 4: right in this country. That Farage really is a trumpest figure, 60 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 4: both in style and in his beliefs. He's very close 61 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 4: to Trump, He's very involved with with Trump World. And 62 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 4: if he wins his the seat clacton which he's standing for, 63 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 4: and if the Reform Party is significantly responsible for splitting 64 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 4: the right vote. He will be a major player in 65 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 4: British politics and may well force the Tory Party to 66 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 4: move to the right. 67 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 3: So I guess the argument or the pushback on the 68 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 3: longer term scenario would be, if they hadn't entered the race, 69 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: you would have felt there was a strong ish possibility 70 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 3: that Farage could become a leader of the Conservative Party 71 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 3: after the election, and it would be the true trumplification 72 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: because you would have what has often been the most 73 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 3: sort of corrosive thing of having a established party taken 74 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 3: over by a populist rather than an outside force that's 75 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 3: going to find it harder to break through electorallease. You 76 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,040 Speaker 3: could argue that to have him double down on reform 77 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 3: was long term less sort of if you like, dangerous 78 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 3: for the nation. 79 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 4: I think putting him in Parliament gives him even more 80 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 4: of a platform than he's already got. He is as 81 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 4: well positioned as he could be to trumpefy the Conservative Party. 82 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 4: Now we may see in the next few days and 83 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 4: weeks a lot of money going to Farage. We may 84 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 4: see the Reform Party excelling the Conservative Party in terms 85 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 4: of its polling. We may see some very high profile 86 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 4: defections from the Conservative Party. So this is the greatest 87 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 4: nightmare you could possibly have for the Conservatives. Now, this 88 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 4: is an ancient party, it's got deep roots, it's got 89 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 4: a fantastic brand name. So perhaps I'm begging up this this. 90 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 3: Litter we have all we usually spend our time talking 91 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 3: about how it's the most successful political party in the 92 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 3: history of political party. 93 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 4: Absolutely, but it's been the most successful party partly because 94 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 4: it's been willing to absorb other parties. You know, just 95 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 4: could call the Conservative and Unionist Party and you know 96 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 4: it's changed a lot over time, and perhaps we could 97 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 4: see the Conservative and Reform Party. 98 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: It was interesting to look at the events of the 99 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: week because, as you say, Tuesday of the week that 100 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: we're recording in, it feels like a couple of months ago, 101 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: doesn't it. Tuesday he announces in the morning, I'm going 102 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: to make this emergency announcement. The world of Westminster didn't didn't. 103 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: There was a number of options. In the end, he 104 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: announces he's going to take over Reform, but he's also 105 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: going to run, and that was the sort of more 106 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: extreme end of what people were predicting. So you know, 107 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: on all of the events have played out as you 108 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: suggest around you know, the reform is showing it's it's 109 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,719 Speaker 1: nudging up in the polls and there's only two points 110 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: behind the Tories. But then interestingly, when you then on 111 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 1: Tuesday night, get that debate and it focuses so much 112 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 1: on tax, and then the next day Faras is not 113 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: really in the conversation when he's talking about immigration, which 114 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: is what they want to talk about. They talk about 115 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: it being the immigration election. He is, you know, enormously effective, 116 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: and he sort of dominates the agenda, but I am 117 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: not sure that when the agenda moves on to other items, 118 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: which the Labor and Conservative Party are making it do 119 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: because they want to talk about the economy and they 120 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: want to talk about tax from their different perspectives. He 121 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: has so much to say and to your point about 122 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: you know, taking over taking over the Conservative Party, all 123 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: of those all of those prospects and his ambition in 124 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: that regard are not hidden, right. He talks about it, 125 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: but he to do that, you have to have a 126 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: slate of policies. 127 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 4: Sure it makes it, but it makes it more difficult 128 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 4: for the two main parties to dominate the political agenda 129 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 4: because both the Tory Party and Labor Party, for their 130 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 4: own different reason, have a reason not to talk too 131 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 4: much about immigration and the votes. Now, of course Farage 132 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 4: has exactly the opposite set of incentives, so it makes 133 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 4: it more difficult to fight on the old electoral battleground. 134 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 4: You have these populous things which people are intensely worried about, 135 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 4: particularly conservative voters, which the Conservative Party didn't want to 136 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 4: talk about. Now they can't get away from. I also 137 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 4: think in terms of the debate about the timing of 138 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 4: the election this you know, a lot of Conservatives are 139 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 4: very unhappy that Richi Suna called an election in the 140 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 4: summer rather than in the autumn. And that is only 141 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 4: accentuated now by Farage's arrival, because in November he would 142 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 4: have been off in the United States doing his thing 143 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,559 Speaker 4: over there and acting as a lipspittle to Donald Trump. 144 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 4: He's now, you know, using his summer doing what he 145 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 4: likes to do. 146 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: Do you think he's running because he thinks he's going 147 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: to win this? Remember he has run seven times before 148 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: sitting and has a twenty six thousand majority. What wasn't 149 00:07:58,880 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: the easiest one to pick. 150 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 4: It's a twenty six thousand majority, but it is pure 151 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 4: Ukip Farag territories, white working class, you know, exiles, people 152 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 4: who feel annoyed by multiculturalism, people who are very sensitive 153 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 4: to the to the boats, people who are sort of 154 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 4: down at heel. 155 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: And he's a county lines crime. 156 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 4: Problem, drugs and county line. He's a superstar and he 157 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 4: really has galvanized this sort of thing. And if he 158 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 4: does win, he's in a really good position to take 159 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 4: over what is already a hollowed out party. I'm in 160 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 4: the Conservative Party, but will be even more hollowed out 161 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 4: after the election. 162 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 3: Can we just spend two minutes to think about the 163 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: Labor Party's perspective on this, because if you imagine if 164 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 3: Labor Party was as single minded as the Conservative Party 165 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 3: often has been on the future, on party and maintaining 166 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 3: its power, and not necessarily always so focused on the 167 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 3: nation and the good of the nation. If you're in 168 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 3: that mindset and your Labor of course the temptation would 169 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 3: be to say, ah, this is us in power for 170 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 3: the next ten years, because you've got the Conservatives tearing 171 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 3: themselves apart and going slightly crazy in just the way 172 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,359 Speaker 3: that we did with Jeremy Corbyn. I guess the alternative 173 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 3: is to tele Actually, this this takes all of our 174 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 3: politics in a really dangerous direction, and we've already learned 175 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 3: from the Brexit debate that that can become very toxic 176 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 3: and make governing very difficult. So this is not necessarily 177 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 3: something we should welcome. 178 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 4: Choice. It channels the opposition into foolish politics. From a 179 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 4: political management point of view, from a Kars Starmer point 180 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 4: of view, purely in the short term, it's great news. 181 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 4: From the point of view of the health of our democracy, 182 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 4: it's a really bad news because healthy democracies, particularly when 183 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 4: you have a large, very centralized system like ours, demand 184 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 4: a healthy, responsible opposition that can keep you into account. 185 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 4: But if I was sitting in Downing Strader, I wouldn't say. 186 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 4: What I really want is a healthy, biggest opposition. I 187 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 4: want a crazy opposition that's tearing itself apart. 188 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 3: I mean, we're getting very ahead of ourselves. But I 189 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 3: just wonder whether we be careful. You wish for a 190 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: few of the Labor Party, because if you look at 191 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 3: there is there is. 192 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 1: They will be across this. They want this is because. 193 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 3: But remember we had actually the last few years we 194 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 3: have both We've all commented on it that actually politics 195 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 3: have become more normal again, and if this takes us 196 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 3: more in that direction, yes, the Labor Party may have 197 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 3: a clear reign, may even win the next election after 198 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 3: this one, but you could ultimately be a in a 199 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 3: very unpleasant leant overall normalization. 200 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: I don't think people think that exclusively. 201 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 4: Just about to have European elections next week. 202 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 3: I'm just talking about the UK. We had two boring 203 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 3: people who are very you know, we've been saying we've 204 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 3: normalized British politics. 205 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 4: We are exciting people. Yes, be careful what you wish for. 206 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: And I'm in charge, an't I? So I've got to move. 207 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: But I think we've done a podcast right there anyway, 208 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: So we are going to go now from Nigel Faraj 209 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: in the UK election to our on the ground voice 210 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: for the week. It's Bloomberg's reporter Swati Gupta. 211 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 5: Swati, Hi, Hi, thank you for having me. 212 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: Sweaty. So did you see this result coming to. 213 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 5: Some extent, Yes, the reporting that we had done on 214 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 5: the ground over the past six months, I would say, 215 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 5: and the people that we had been spoken to, speaking 216 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 5: to me and of a few colleagues in the office, 217 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 5: it made us feel that unemployment and inflation would be 218 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 5: major issues. Somehow they were not getting addressed when the 219 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 5: campaigning began, and then the signs kind of silidified as 220 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 5: soon as you know, the voting process began, which is 221 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 5: over a period of six weeks. We spoke to party 222 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 5: officials who started confirming a little bit that things may 223 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,599 Speaker 5: not be going that wealth for the B to B. 224 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 5: It is really hard to estimate that in an electorate 225 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 5: which is this large, and with the Prime Minister who 226 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 5: is so incredibly popular. 227 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: Here, Soswati, is it right to say that broadly this 228 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: is a rejection of Moody Noomics, which essentially was an 229 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:22,839 Speaker 1: agenda and economic agenda that largely benefited billionaires and to 230 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: a lesser extent, the middle classes. 231 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 5: I would say it's a rejection Indians have overwhelmingly still 232 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 5: voted for remnistroymoy and his allies. I think it is 233 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 5: sort of, in a way, a check that the voters 234 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 5: have delivered that yeah, everything else is fine, we are 235 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 5: heading to the moon, or we are going to become 236 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 5: a developed country by twenty forty seven. But don't forget 237 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 5: that it is the poor people who elect leaders in 238 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 5: this country. I think it's it's a reminder from the 239 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 5: voters that you cannot forget the people at the lowest 240 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 5: level and just forge ahead. 241 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 1: What will it mean for his agenda in the next 242 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,439 Speaker 1: parliament then, once once his coalition has been formed, will 243 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: what do you think he actually does to your to 244 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 1: your very eloquent phrase, you know, to not forget the 245 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: less well off. 246 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean in the parliament. It is right now 247 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 5: very difficult to estimate a lot of the things that 248 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 5: they had scheduled for the first hundred days, and mister 249 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 5: Body had been very clear that, oh, you know, we 250 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 5: have it all planned out. That's now all gone up 251 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 5: in the air. Because when you are running a coalition 252 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 5: government in India, what you want no longer is a priority. 253 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 5: You have to, you know, take everybody in the government 254 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 5: along with you. And mister Body is not used to 255 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 5: working in a collision. He never has. He's always ruled 256 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 5: with absolute majority. So it would be interesting to see 257 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 5: which of his reforms that will be sidelined. He was 258 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 5: very keen to do labor reforms in India, but that 259 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 5: pretty much, as an analyst told me a few days ago, 260 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 5: that'll be in cold storage. 261 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: Well, one thing is for sure, Spatia, you're going to 262 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: be really, really busy. Thank you very much for taking 263 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: time to come and speak to us here on a 264 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: voteronomics and we'll speak to you again. 265 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 5: Thank you. 266 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: Now to a conversation Stephanie and I had with Robin Niblett. 267 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: He's the former director of the international affairs think tank 268 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: Chatham House. Nibbler also recently published a book called The 269 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: New Cold War, How the Contest between the US and 270 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: China will shape our Century. As he explains it, the 271 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: book's central thesis is that the division between the US 272 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: and China and the mistrust is unbridgable and it's here 273 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: to stay. The two sides are, he thinks, reversing into 274 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: a Cold War, and they're bringing in partners into either 275 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: side of the conflict, one of China's partners being Russia. 276 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 3: And I decided to ask him about Russia's invasion of 277 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 3: Ukraine two years ago because I remembered him saying at 278 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 3: the time that he felt it could serve as a 279 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 3: wake up call to the West both to decarbonize the 280 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: economies quicker because they'd want to reduce their alliance on 281 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: Russian gas, but also to spur new alliances and a 282 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 3: rethinking of European security, and having remembered him saying that, 283 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 3: I just wanted to ask him whether he thought the 284 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 3: West had actually seized those opportunities out of the crisis. 285 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 2: My bottom line is yes. Now. Obviously, in democracies, turning 286 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: a wake up call into action is difficult, and it 287 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 2: requires explicit language and narrative. And I think it's been 288 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 2: especially difficult for Europeans to adapt because the whole notion 289 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 2: of European integration was built as a peace project, not 290 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 2: as a war project. Easier in some ways for Australia, Japan, 291 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 2: South Korea to get with the program more quickly because 292 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: that sense of insecurity has been so much more present, 293 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 2: and they've got US troops still deployed there and exercises 294 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 2: carried out in much more explicit ways. But has it 295 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 2: been a wake up call and have people acted? Absolutely? 296 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 3: I guess the pushback on that would be there has 297 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 3: been great rhetoric, but in terms of actual sacrifices being 298 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: made in order to do more on defense, politicians governments 299 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 3: have been quite unwilling to actually spend a lot more. 300 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 3: I mean, climate was the other thing that looked like 301 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: there was an opportunity. But actually, if anything, there's been 302 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 3: quite a lot of backsliding. So I guess what you 303 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 3: could say when it comes down to it, Actually politicians 304 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 3: aren't willing to let people pay a price for this 305 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 3: kind of change. 306 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 2: Yes, there's a kind of transition phase which has to 307 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 2: take place within a democracy. But it strikes me that 308 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 2: where the German government, let's say, in particular on its 309 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 2: climate change transition is taking place, is that it is 310 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 2: dropped adaptations that would have an immediate short term impact 311 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 2: on consumers heat pump requirements for example. At the energy 312 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 2: production level, the transition is fully underway. They're trying to 313 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 2: give something to their publics with one hand, but if 314 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 2: you look at the reduction of gas importation and the 315 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 2: adaptation of that away from Russia, that's carrying real cost. 316 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 2: It's much more expensive to bring it in from the US. 317 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 2: It's more expensive to bring it in from Katar. But 318 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 2: the long term contracts have been signed by the German 319 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: government on Katar gas for example, again at the great 320 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 2: announceo of one hundred billion euros and be put more 321 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 2: into German defense. Look, the problem is that they're so 322 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 2: far behind the curve in Germany and being ready. The 323 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 2: one hundred billion has literally been soaked up like water 324 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: put into a garden that's parched. It's just disappeared and 325 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 2: you see no added value. But that's because Germany was 326 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: so unprepared. But Germany is hitting two percent of its 327 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 2: GDP this year. That is a remarkable figure. Where we've 328 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 2: come from in Europe and where we've got to in 329 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: a democratic context. Things impressive. 330 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: But it's two percent enough. 331 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's a fair question. It's two percent enough 332 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 2: if we look ahead. If this is a new Cold 333 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 2: War I believe it is. Then if we're looking ahead 334 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 2: ten twenty years, two percent won't be enough. You could 335 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 2: get to maybe two point five three percent. I think 336 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 2: it would be enough. 337 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: But let's just look think that is enough? 338 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, totally Without the US, European GDP is ten times Russia. 339 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: So America could pull out uld say, and theoretically we 340 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: should have the capacity to be able to take Russia 341 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 2: on Ukraine. So this is not just about the amounts, 342 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 2: it's about how the money you're spent. So, as people 343 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 2: have always said, the problem with Europe is the defense 344 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: part has been a kind of free rider. The ten 345 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: Kin kind of thing on top of the European project. 346 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 2: And now people are realizing that you're perhaps going to 347 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 2: have to start, for example, borrowing money to spend on defense. 348 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: Are people talking about that? 349 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: Absolutely, this is one of the new projects. Could you 350 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: extend what was the two year renew Europe post COVID 351 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: seven hundred and ninety billion euro fund that was created 352 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,400 Speaker 2: for two years to adapt the economies to a post 353 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 2: COVID and to a more energy efficient environment, that is 354 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 2: meant to end at the end of two years. Europe 355 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 2: could collectively in the market borrow very large amounts to 356 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 2: then be able to apply to defense production, for example, 357 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 2: to start building up long term ammunitions production. So it's 358 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 2: not the amounts, it's the organization. Europe has not been 359 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 2: organized around security and defense. And I think this wake 360 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 2: up call and the fact that America is not reliable 361 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 2: for European security at least in the long term, I 362 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 2: think his acting is a wake up call. So I'm frank. 363 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: I'm not worried about the two percent. To be honest, 364 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: most people never thought Germany would get to two percent 365 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 2: within two years. There are on one point three. This 366 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 2: is a big chunk of money. When you look at 367 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 2: the size of the German defense budget. 368 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 3: But in nineteen eighty nine the US was spending six 369 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 3: percent something like that, and then probably most countries, certainly 370 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,959 Speaker 3: the UK was probably spending something like that seven percent 371 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 3: of GDP. So I guess if we're in the kind 372 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 3: of really transformed situation geopolitically that you describe in the book, 373 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 3: I just it feels like that conversation around twenty two 374 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 3: percent is symbolic of politician's willingness to really say, look, 375 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 3: we're in a different world now. We can no longer 376 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 3: be sort of enjoying the benefits of this peace diffideny 377 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 3: that is gone that since nineteen eighty nine, we have 378 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 3: to face up to things being different. But are we 379 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 3: anyway close to that? We're looking for these two massive elections. 380 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 2: I think the most important point I want to make 381 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 2: it is that we're not sitting on a trigger environment 382 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 2: across a long front line between a nuclear armed Soviet forces. 383 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 2: They were at the time potentially about to pour through 384 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 2: the Folder gap, which led to the kind of high 385 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 2: levels of events, spending, and high levels of concern and 386 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 2: conscription that you had during the last Cold War. We're 387 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 2: talking about a Cold War with China, which from a 388 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: European standpoint is a long way away, and where the 389 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 2: competition is going to be competed much more geoeconomically and 390 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 2: in competition with the global seuse and in competition over 391 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 2: regulation on AI. Then it is going to be in 392 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 2: the kind of Cold War. I spent a lot of 393 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,159 Speaker 2: time in the book is talking about that. What's different 394 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 2: about this cold water the last war? We can take 395 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 2: on Russia with two percent of GDP. The problem is 396 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: that if we're going to see China as a competitor globally, 397 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: we're going to have to be rethink on our economic 398 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 2: model in a different way, and that'll be expensive, but 399 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 2: you won't see it on the defense budget. 400 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 3: So that's interesting we were talking about as an Allegra 401 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 3: has been on the inside of some of these conversations 402 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 3: about how the approach to China, how you describe it 403 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 3: to people all. Do you think there is an understanding 404 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 3: within the government that you we need to reframe our 405 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 3: relationship with China. What does that even look like? 406 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: Well, the new language they're now using is that they 407 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: want to not decouple, but they want to de risk. 408 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: So to explain they're framing it's let's get with the program. 409 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: We have these huge economic dependencies on China. There's going 410 00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: to be a price impact if we pull out, or 411 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: it's not to pull out too aggressively. But equally there's 412 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: all these industries where it's highly sensitive. Every time they 413 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: try to stake out that new position, they get pushed 414 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: and pushed by new allegations of China's interference in the UK. 415 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: So I think that I think we probably haven't seen 416 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: a settled position on this from the government, but I'd 417 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: love to know what you think. 418 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 2: I agree there's not a settled position, and it's interesting 419 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 2: compared to the US one as well, where they thought 420 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,959 Speaker 2: the administration in a way, the Biden administration jumped on 421 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 2: a Sula vander Lyon's term of de risking because they 422 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 2: realized the decoupling language, which was, as you said, starting 423 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 2: to dominate the debate, was too extreme even for America, 424 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 2: which had its largest trade ever with China in twenty 425 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 2: twenty three, and of course would like to be able 426 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 2: to keep a lot of that trade in agricultural products. 427 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: Think of the air market. Can Boeing survive as a 428 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 2: global air carrier and not be penetrated to the Chinese market, 429 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 2: which is already by passenger numbers apparently the largest market 430 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 2: in the world, overtaking the US recently. So either bid 431 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 2: demonstration jumped on that more subtle framing. Should we say 432 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 2: that the European side is provided that Oliver Dowden actually 433 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 2: repeated about de risking being the goal and not decoupling. 434 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 2: The problem is that de risking implies that you understand 435 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:21,159 Speaker 2: the boundaries of the threat, and the initial notion of 436 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 2: de risking, and the initial notion of the Jake Sullivan 437 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: US National Security Advisor, We're going to build a small 438 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 2: yard with a high fence of protections, was that it 439 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 2: would be artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors. Fine, you 440 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 2: could say, we don't want those areas China to be 441 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: contributing to China's capacity to use those technologies to further 442 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 2: improve its military threats to US, given that we do 443 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 2: see China's arrival in the Indo Pacific and who knows 444 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 2: what they're going to provide maybe to Russia some day 445 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,640 Speaker 2: down the line. The problem is that we've already discovered, 446 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 2: even in the technological military space, cloud computing could be 447 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 2: an alternative to having to use lots of very high 448 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 2: end the semiconductors and ships from America. Why not just 449 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 2: lob into cloud computing? And you said that when then 450 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 2: be able to draw the models and the imaging you've 451 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 2: had biotechnology. Now people are worried that biotech could be 452 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 2: used in a military sense and for military purposes. So 453 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 2: suddenly it's already expanded. 454 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: And in the UK example, evs are interesting, aren't they 455 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: because in the high fence they wouldn't necessarily be in 456 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: the yard, would they? Exactly that they might be regarding 457 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 1: to America. But in the UK a lot of people 458 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,439 Speaker 1: think we need cheap evs in order to make some 459 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 1: of those EV targets possible. But then there's all these 460 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: concerns about the tech that could be in the cars 461 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 1: if they were imported, whether or not that's. 462 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 2: Exactly right they're mongering or not. Joe Biden has warned 463 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 2: that Chinese cars in the tech could be a national 464 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 2: security threat as they're driving around they're picking up information. 465 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: But the Chinese already did that. The Chinese don't allow 466 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 2: Tesla cars to drive near government areas in China today, 467 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 2: So I said, the Chinese are always one step ahead on. 468 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 3: This with a slightly more kind of economic bent. It's 469 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 3: just that it's it's not a stable equilibrium. Even just 470 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 3: the idea of we were going to draw lines between 471 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 3: things that are economically are important to our national security 472 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 3: and economic areas where we can continue to be entangled. 473 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 3: The logic of everything you've described, as long as you 474 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 3: have two distinct blocks, or at least superpowers with fundamentally 475 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 3: different values, a fundamentally different approach to governing, one authoritarian, 476 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 3: one more open, it's not a stable situation to have 477 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,239 Speaker 3: the degree of economic entanglement that we have now. And 478 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: once you accept that you're going to decouple in some areas, 479 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 3: that the decoupling will have its own momentum or is 480 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 3: just not all means nothing. I just wonder whether you think, 481 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 3: if you're writing this book in twenty or thirty years time, 482 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 3: that we will be in a much more divided global economy, 483 00:25:55,560 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 3: that we will have much more lines between the two sides, Will. 484 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 2: We will have deep divisions and greater divisions than today. 485 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 2: Between America and its allies, are both Pacific and Atlantic, 486 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 2: European and Pacific, anyone who depends on America for their security, 487 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 2: and let's call it China and potentially Russia, which in 488 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 2: particular they are joined at the hip at the moment 489 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,199 Speaker 2: for all the reasons we know. What I think is 490 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 2: interesting is where will the rest of the world be 491 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 2: in this divide. I talk about the countries in the 492 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 2: Global South term we all use now having much more 493 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 2: agency in this new Cold War, a more capacity to 494 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: triangulate between the two sides, play one off the other, 495 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 2: which they've done. Certainly a country like India has done effectively. 496 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 2: You could argue some of the Southeast Asians like Indonesia 497 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 2: doing it quite effectively. Saudi so far has done it 498 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 2: quite effectively. Thy worried a little the Middle East may 499 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 2: force it a little bit back into the American camp. 500 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 2: But the interesting thing is will a country like Indonesia 501 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 2: be forced to choose between the two technologies or not? 502 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 2: I think not. Will countries in Latin America be forced 503 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 2: to choose between the two? I think not because they 504 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 2: do not rely on America for their security and China 505 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 2: in a way is not a direct threat to them. 506 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 2: So the question is then are they able to pick 507 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 2: and choose between different options? Should be called literally Chinese 508 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: evs and Chinese technology mixed up, maybe with some European 509 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 2: or American technology and say we will play, we will 510 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 2: take both and force the two to compete. That's the 511 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 2: kind of almost positive side of the New Cold War, 512 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 2: if I can call it. I try to be a 513 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 2: little bit positive in the book, and I do talk 514 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 2: about the fact that in a way the Agency, the 515 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 2: economic heft and weight of these emerging and growing markets 516 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 2: in terms of population, in terms of resources, in terms 517 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 2: of markets, gives them some capacity to say we will 518 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 2: not be dominated by the new Cold War of the 519 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 2: Northern hemisphere. As real as that is and as dominant 520 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 2: as that is. Now, if we end up in war 521 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 2: hot war, all bets are off and then you're forced 522 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 2: to choose sides. 523 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: And I just want to hear you on the price 524 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: implication or all of this, The price is implication for 525 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: UK punters to use the crew the term that Stephanie 526 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 1: and I you always used to use back when we 527 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: were both in TV having to go in to report 528 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:13,199 Speaker 1: some of these issues. If we have that economic distance 529 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 1: thing from China, what are the price implications for the voters. 530 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 2: Anything that minimizes the capacity for the efficient exchange of 531 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 2: goods financing technology is going to have a price increasing impact. 532 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 2: The question is how much, in what segments and how 533 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 2: important are they for day to day living for let's 534 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 2: call it middle class voters. And the biggest risk is 535 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 2: probably in the energy space, because energy is an important component, 536 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 2: whether it's through transport or through heating bills and so 537 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 2: on for the average a voter. So the using questions, 538 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 2: can we do an energy transition, which we in Europe 539 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 2: desperately need to do. America doesn't without Chinese inputs because 540 00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 2: the Chinese inputs give us speed and cheap price. So 541 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 2: I think we're going to face some real conundrums here. 542 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 2: I think you can probably get away in terms of 543 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: central price impacts with the new Cold War. Life would 544 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 2: be a bit more expensive, but not cataclysmically so except 545 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,920 Speaker 2: on energy. And energy is the area where I think 546 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 2: we could see a divergence as well between America and 547 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 2: Europe in how he managed the Chinese relationship. 548 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 1: Robin, what does a president Trump the second do for 549 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: all of this? 550 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 2: It does not change the fundamentals of their being a 551 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 2: new Cold War, the dangers it could It's unlikely, but 552 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 2: it's possible that he could hot it up. But I 553 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 2: think the biggest risk of it is what it does 554 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 2: to the alliance is that the Bide administration has been 555 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 2: trying to build to manage this new Cold War. Personally, 556 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 2: I think he's got four years. Four years are not 557 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 2: going to change the dynamic of America needing allies to 558 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 2: compete against China and Russia. And although it might be 559 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 2: a bumpy phase for four years with Trump, I don't 560 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 2: think he's going to destroy the infrastructure of this competition. 561 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 2: But yeah, I suppose my big risk for who's in 562 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 2: this administration hows he manage it? If we get very 563 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 2: personally here, we go unstructural and we go down to 564 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 2: literally personalities, because if we know from the last Trump 565 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 2: administration he wants to do one thing one day, he 566 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 2: wants to do something the next, and whoever advises him 567 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 2: last has most impact. There are people who served in 568 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 2: the Trump administration. There are people on the hard right 569 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 2: in the Republican Party who believe we should not be 570 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 2: managing this new Cold War, which should be winning it. 571 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 3: It's interesting ran Chatham House for all those years, the 572 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,120 Speaker 3: sort of premiere think tank on international affairs that I 573 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 3: guess reflects the sort of foreign policy establishment, certainly in Europe, 574 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 3: certainly in the UK. So the fact that you're not 575 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 3: projecting the end of the world if Donald Trump gets 576 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 3: re elected, I think is interesting and shows the sort 577 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 3: of long view that you're taking. But I guess if 578 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 3: you were judging President Trump by the results of his 579 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 3: leadership as opposed to what he said day to day, 580 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 3: he probably did more to increase European defense spending and 581 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 3: commitment to natively than President Obama had ever done. If 582 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 3: you look at President Biden's approach to the Middle East crisis, 583 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 3: that has, if anything, diminished a sense of US power 584 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 3: and ability to influence very close allies. And when it 585 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 3: comes to China, to have an unstable genius as he did, 586 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 3: or what does he say there were very stable genius, 587 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 3: have an unstable non genius who's very unpredictable, contradictory in 588 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 3: his statements, never quite clear about whether whether he's in 589 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 3: with the Hawks or with the people who would coexist 590 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 3: with China. Is that actually, ironically the kind of leader 591 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 3: we might need in this weird period of transition, which 592 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 3: would prevent the Chinese from really knowing what they were 593 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 3: dealing with. 594 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 2: No. I say no for one reason, though not because 595 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 2: I do not discount the points you make. You could add, 596 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 2: you know, obviously we've done two things after Trump number one, 597 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 2: he asked two things, spend more new defense and don't 598 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 2: buy your gas from Russia, ending you what the hell 599 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 2: you're doing. Of course, we're now doing the other thing 600 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 2: he asked, which is buying the bulk of ar liquified 601 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 2: natural gas from America rather from from Russia. He's definitely 602 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 2: got what he wanted. There's one problem, however, I was 603 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 2: looking at these figures recently for a little article I 604 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 2: wrote Foreign Policy Magazine. The G seven has a larger 605 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 2: trade deficit in goods with America today than China has 606 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 2: with America. 607 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 3: Except the US. But the UK is the UK is. 608 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 2: Seven seven billion exactly. Think we got seven billion the 609 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 2: last number I saw exactly trade deficit with America. So 610 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 2: we might be left out of his revenge. But the 611 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 2: danger is that he would create instability in the emerging 612 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 2: what I call G seven plus G nine grouping of 613 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 2: countries that are allied to America. That America needs to 614 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 2: take on China and Russia, and we need America to 615 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 2: take on China and Russia. So the danger is that 616 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 2: he could break those alliances by making a much more 617 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:00,160 Speaker 2: transactional imposing tarists on. However, as I said, this is 618 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,719 Speaker 2: a structural conflict that's going to go on for twenty 619 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 2: thirty years. To be honest, I think the G seven 620 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 2: will just do like Japan did with the transpecific partnership. Now, 621 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 2: do you know what, We'll hang together while America's out. 622 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 2: We'll wait for America to come back, because America is 623 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 2: not going to be able to manage this new call 624 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 2: war without our lives. 625 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 3: Robin Niblett, thank you so much. 626 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: Okay, two quick things that I found interesting. Firstly, he 627 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: thinks that defense spending should go to about three percent, 628 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,959 Speaker 1: but that that will be manageable. Obviously we're at two 629 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 1: point five now, but it isn't that kind of quantin 630 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,920 Speaker 1: point five percent difference will be interesting. And then also 631 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: he did accept that it will make things more expensive 632 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 1: for domestic audiences, having this Jake Sullivan high fence small 633 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: yard policy around, for instance, China's exporting of evs. 634 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,720 Speaker 3: Which we had heard. We've had that discussion with a 635 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 3: few other people whether that was going to become a bigger, 636 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 3: bigger thing. And I can't help given that we're recording 637 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 3: this on the day of the commemorations of eighty years 638 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 3: since the D Day landings. It is quite striking, and 639 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 3: we've written about it today and Bloomberg that Vladimir Putin's 640 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:17,359 Speaker 3: not invited to those commemorations. He has participated in the past. 641 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 3: He participated ten years ago. Soviet Union lost more people 642 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 3: than anybody in the fight against Nazi Germany, and arguably 643 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 3: Stalingrad was as significant Russians would say, much more significant 644 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 3: on the Eastern Front and defeating Hitler than D Day was. 645 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,920 Speaker 3: And it just sort of goes to some of the 646 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 3: points that Robin was making about the challenge that Europe 647 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 3: has had in rethinking its approach to security. 648 00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,160 Speaker 4: I think he tore up his own invitation and he 649 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 4: invaded you great, Yeah, exactly. 650 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 3: I'm not saying, but it sort of it just it shows, 651 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,359 Speaker 3: you know, we're still hanging on quite rightly to this 652 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 3: very important date and what it symbolizes, and yet we 653 00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 3: have this completely new environment, and I think we are 654 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,279 Speaker 3: we are just struggling to hold those two things in 655 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 3: our minds because. 656 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 4: We're moving from a post war world to a pre 657 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:09,400 Speaker 4: war world, or what feels increasing like a pre war world. 658 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 4: I'm afraid one of the things that strung me about 659 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 4: what Nimble was saying, and what interests me about his 660 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 4: book is that he's focused on China and that he's 661 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 4: unusual for a European to be focused on China. What 662 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,320 Speaker 4: you get at the moment is Europeans tend to be 663 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 4: focused on Russia and the East, and the Americans are 664 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,400 Speaker 4: absolutely obsessed by China. And I think our debate in 665 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:33,440 Speaker 4: this continent is behind the US debate. We're not sufficiently 666 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 4: thinking about China. 667 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 1: So I think are we behind? Are we in a 668 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: different economic position, which is we need them more? 669 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 4: America also needs them, But I don't think we have 670 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 4: recognized the extent to which China is an aggressive military threat. 671 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 5: Right. 672 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,120 Speaker 1: I think that's it for now from Votomics. Thanks for 673 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 1: listening to this week's Votonomics from Bloomberg. This episode was 674 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 1: hosted by Stephanie Flanders, Adrian Woodridge, and myself at Legostratum. 675 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,280 Speaker 1: It was produced by Samasadi with help from Chris Martlou 676 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,240 Speaker 1: and Julia Mann's. Sound designed by Moses and am Brendan. 677 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: Francis Newnham is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is head 678 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 1: of Podcasts and Special Thanks to Robin Niblett and Swati Gupta. 679 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 1: Please subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen to podcasts.