WEBVTT - Trump Extends Deadline for Tariffs on the European Union

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. So

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<v Speaker 2>we begin with a story on trade. At the end

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<v Speaker 2>of last week, you may recall President Trump threatened a

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<v Speaker 2>fifty percent tariff on imports from the European Union effective

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<v Speaker 2>June first. Now, he said this was in response to

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<v Speaker 2>what he called unsatisfactory trade negotiations with Brussels. However, now

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<v Speaker 2>the President says he has agreed to extend that fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent tariff for the EU until July ninth. Trump made

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<v Speaker 2>the change after a phone call with European Commissioned President

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<v Speaker 2>Ursula Vanderleyan.

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<v Speaker 3>We had a very nice call and I agreed to movement.

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<v Speaker 3>I believe June ninth would be July ninth would be

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<v Speaker 3>the day.

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<v Speaker 4>That was the date.

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<v Speaker 3>She requested, Could we move it from June first to

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<v Speaker 3>July ninth? And I agreed to do that, and that

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<v Speaker 3>she said, we will rapidly get together and see if

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<v Speaker 3>we could work something out.

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<v Speaker 2>Now in a post on x, vonder Layan said the

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<v Speaker 2>European Union is ready to advance talk swiftly and decisively.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, the date of July ninth is the

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<v Speaker 2>same day, Trump's ninety day pause on those so called

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<v Speaker 2>reciprocal tariffs had been set to end. For a closer

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<v Speaker 2>look at some of the market action, I am joined

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<v Speaker 2>now by Stephanie Lunghi is the CIO at Stashaway, joining

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<v Speaker 2>from our studios in Hong Kong. Stephanie, thank you so

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<v Speaker 2>much for making time to chat with me. Can we

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<v Speaker 2>start with a trade story and what I think may

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<v Speaker 2>be a little bit of whiplash for markets? How do

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<v Speaker 2>you understand the situation right now, not just where the

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<v Speaker 2>European Union is concerned, but more broadly how the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration is dealing with these various trade negotiations.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I think indeed, if you look at kind of

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<v Speaker 4>a broad set of things going on, it's it's quite

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<v Speaker 4>a lot. I mean, they try to negotiate with eighteen

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<v Speaker 4>key kind of trading partners, but also I mean there

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<v Speaker 4>are a lot of other things line up for them

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<v Speaker 4>to sort of try to make a deal as well.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think if we kind of roll back in history,

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<v Speaker 4>twenty eighteen was actually a very very good playbook for

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<v Speaker 4>kind of understanding or sort of I guess, of putting

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<v Speaker 4>a framework as to what's happening so if you kind

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<v Speaker 4>of remember twenty eighteen, we also had a sort of

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<v Speaker 4>a trade short, short term trade war between US and

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<v Speaker 4>China in the last quarter of twenty eighteen, and the

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<v Speaker 4>market actually found it slow on December twenty fourth of

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<v Speaker 4>that year, And similar to kind of what's happening right now,

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<v Speaker 4>I think initially, I mean, Trump tries to put out

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<v Speaker 4>a very very forceful kind of ask and they try

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<v Speaker 4>to negotiate down from there, and of course during the

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<v Speaker 4>negotiation it.

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<v Speaker 5>Was also very very messy.

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<v Speaker 4>There was a lot of back and forth, and I

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<v Speaker 4>mean one of Trump's tactics that he likes to use

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<v Speaker 4>when he's trying to make deals is he walks out

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<v Speaker 4>of the room at the last minute. So I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>I wouldn't be surprised that if Trump is kind of

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<v Speaker 4>deployed some of the similar tactics. But I think we

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<v Speaker 4>have to remember that, I mean, Trump is not a

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<v Speaker 4>person without constraints, right He being the President of the

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<v Speaker 4>United States, of course have a lot of power, but

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<v Speaker 4>at the end of the day, he needs to answer

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<v Speaker 4>to the median vota, and also he needs to kind

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<v Speaker 4>of realize that there are economic constraints as we've seen

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<v Speaker 4>just very very recently with bond yields.

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<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned the backup that we had in US

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<v Speaker 2>treasury yields last week. There has been a debate, as

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<v Speaker 2>you well know, in the bond market about the extent

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<v Speaker 2>to which these tariffs may be inflationary. But for the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>what seems to be driving a lot of the price

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<v Speaker 2>section in the bond market is the concern over the

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<v Speaker 2>government's ability to continue to cover these massive budget deficits.

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<v Speaker 2>Are we going to be in a world now until

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<v Speaker 2>this tax bill has been signed in the law where

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<v Speaker 2>there's going to be a lot more volatility in the

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<v Speaker 2>bond market.

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<v Speaker 4>So at the beginning of the year, we put out

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<v Speaker 4>our twenty and twenty five outlook and the title I

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<v Speaker 4>use was FAT as the New Normal FAT And the

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<v Speaker 4>reason why I use FAT. F stands for Fiscal dominance,

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<v Speaker 4>A stands for AI, T stands for Trump, and it's

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<v Speaker 4>basically I think these are three forces that would drive

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<v Speaker 4>markets for quite some time, and not just this year,

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<v Speaker 4>but perhaps I mean for the rest of the decade

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<v Speaker 4>to come. And in terms of physical dominance, when we're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing a lot of that happening, and I think if

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<v Speaker 4>you look at that the US treasury yield.

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<v Speaker 5>Of course it's in spiking.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean there's a lot of kind of I think

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<v Speaker 4>US centric concerns, but also it's not just a US story,

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<v Speaker 4>right if even if you look at the Japanese long rates,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, these are at historical highs. So I do

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<v Speaker 4>think that there is a reflection of the market's concern

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<v Speaker 4>on the fiscal deficits for governments or across the world,

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<v Speaker 4>and sort of the I guess the return they demand

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<v Speaker 4>from holding a lot of these sovereign debt is increasing

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<v Speaker 4>because of the long time concern on the sustainability of

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<v Speaker 4>these debt levels.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think again, if you look at.

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<v Speaker 4>Kind of a as a classes during this past a

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<v Speaker 4>few months of trade war concerns, you can see that

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<v Speaker 4>actually bond is the weakest link. And I think if

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<v Speaker 4>you kind of ask around of as allocatus a few

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<v Speaker 4>months ago, I think very very few people would have

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<v Speaker 4>predicted that. I mean, actually, I mean bond is even weaker.

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<v Speaker 4>It's even kind of more concerning than that equities.

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<v Speaker 2>So we've talked about the f fiscal We've talked about

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<v Speaker 2>the t Trump, let's talk about the A now artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>We get the Nvidia earnings after the closing bell on

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<v Speaker 2>Wednesday here in the US, Bloomberg data showed that revenue

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<v Speaker 2>from that core chip business is forecast to rise over

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<v Speaker 2>the next four quarters. But a number of analysts are

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<v Speaker 2>now beginning to talk about how the trade pressures could

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<v Speaker 2>put in Vidia's guidance at risk. Do you think that's

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<v Speaker 2>a fair criticism or at least a fair warning.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think that's if you look at invidious revenue mix,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, the significant part of that does come from China,

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<v Speaker 4>and of course, I think over the years, I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>they have tried to kind of I guess more of

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<v Speaker 4>their business in order to get rounds of these regulations.

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<v Speaker 4>I think indeed, I mean this morning, we're seeing that

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<v Speaker 4>they are gonna adopt a lower kind of power version

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<v Speaker 4>of the GPUs to be able to sell to China.

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<v Speaker 5>And I think that.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, of course, for the past two and a

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<v Speaker 4>half years, I mean, a video was sort of the

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<v Speaker 4>only story in te right. If you look at the

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<v Speaker 4>phases of AI development, I mean, the first kind of

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<v Speaker 4>obvious phase or the first obvious traits are buying chips

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<v Speaker 4>and training of the large language models. I think I

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<v Speaker 4>do think that apart from the regulations. I mean there

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<v Speaker 4>are some of the more structural movements or moves away

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<v Speaker 4>from this phase one that I mean we're now kind

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<v Speaker 4>of entering phase two.

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<v Speaker 5>So I mean what is phase two?

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<v Speaker 6>Right?

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<v Speaker 4>If you look at the l ms, I mean a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of them are already quite commoditized. They are very

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<v Speaker 4>very powerful already with kind of the lms more stabilized,

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<v Speaker 4>like stabilizing in the developments. I mean that actually enables

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<v Speaker 4>application developers to be able to make use of these

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<v Speaker 4>lms to develop a lot of different use cases. And indeed,

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<v Speaker 4>if you look at the within the equity markets, I

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<v Speaker 4>mean what's leading in this round of rebounds is a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of the so called AI first software companies, right,

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<v Speaker 4>companies like appalenteer companies like Spotify, even like do Lingo,

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<v Speaker 4>and a lot of these companies that are actually realizing

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<v Speaker 4>the benefit of AI in the business, either from the revenue.

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<v Speaker 5>Side or the cost site.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, these are sort of the leading pack in

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<v Speaker 4>this round of rebound.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm curious to get your take on how you expect

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<v Speaker 2>AI in China to advance, at least over the near term.

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<v Speaker 2>Reuters was reporting that in videos planning to launch a

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<v Speaker 2>new AI chip especially for the Chinese market. Do you

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<v Speaker 2>think that is going to accelerate the chain in Ai

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<v Speaker 2>in China that they would have perhaps a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>more advanced technology.

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<v Speaker 4>The key devolvement in China, I think has been that

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<v Speaker 4>the of course, we had the deep Seek moment, and

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<v Speaker 4>it shows us that, I mean, the Chinese technology companies

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<v Speaker 4>can can do quite a bit of things with limited resources.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think what I guess more importantly is that

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<v Speaker 4>the because of the I guess, the restrictions that Trump

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<v Speaker 4>has put onto exporting technology to China, it forces China

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<v Speaker 4>to really I mean think about and invest into his

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<v Speaker 4>own technology stack. And if you look at companies like Huawei,

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<v Speaker 4>right they I mean they already possessed quite a bit

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<v Speaker 4>of good technology, and I think the Chinese government or

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<v Speaker 4>kind of Chinese companies is going to double down that

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<v Speaker 4>just because of security reasons. Right you don't know when

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<v Speaker 4>I mean the US is going.

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<v Speaker 5>To restrict.

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<v Speaker 4>Exports of chips or various other kind of important technologies.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think what the Deep Seat moment shows us

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<v Speaker 4>is that, I mean, China is not too far behind.

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<v Speaker 5>And I think Nvidia.

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<v Speaker 4>Is announcing this kind of news chip because they realize

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<v Speaker 4>that fress all right there for it perhaps is not

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<v Speaker 4>so much AMV or other chip companies, but really like

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<v Speaker 4>Chinese companies like Huawei.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we'll leave it there, Stephanie. It's always a pleasure.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. Stephanie Lyung. She is the CIO

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<v Speaker 2>at Stashuay. Joining from Hong Kong here on the Daybreak

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<v Speaker 2>Asia Podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Doug Chrisner. We go to Japan next, where shares and

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<v Speaker 2>Nippon Steele are trading higher in the Tokyo session. This

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<v Speaker 2>comes after President Trump said he will back up partnership

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<v Speaker 2>between the Japanese company and US Steel. We've got reaction

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<v Speaker 2>from Kurt Tong. He is managing partner at the Asia Group.

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<v Speaker 2>Mister Tong spoke with Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Heidi Stroud Watts.

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<v Speaker 7>US Steel Knipon Steel deal details are scant, a little

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<v Speaker 7>bit confusing here, but at least can we say that

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<v Speaker 7>this is a good i'mon ahead of US Japan talks.

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<v Speaker 8>It certainly establishes positive momentum going into this next month

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<v Speaker 8>of negotiations. It's also a very interesting signal that the

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<v Speaker 8>Japan side is thinking of trying to finish earlier rather

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<v Speaker 8>than later. As you know, there's an election coming up

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<v Speaker 8>later in July, and the Japanese government really needs to

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<v Speaker 8>have a positive outcome in this negotiation to set up

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<v Speaker 8>for that election or punt the entire negotiation until after

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<v Speaker 8>the election. So I actually think this is very very

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<v Speaker 8>positive news for the atmosphere of the negotiations, for the

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<v Speaker 8>level of trust between the two sides. But it still

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<v Speaker 8>comes down to a game of chicken over the automobiles.

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<v Speaker 7>Tariffs and perhaps currency as well applays a factor here

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<v Speaker 7>as well. We heard from the Finance Minister of Scott

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<v Speaker 7>Basin last week saying, look, let's let the market handle

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<v Speaker 7>the currency. But is the end just always there in

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<v Speaker 7>the background.

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<v Speaker 8>I think it's in the background, and the japan side

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<v Speaker 8>interestingly has waived that flag a bit as well to

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<v Speaker 8>remind the United States that it's a mutually beneficial and

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<v Speaker 8>potentially mutually destructive relationship in the financial markets. At the

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<v Speaker 8>negotiating table, I believe the two sides, just as they've indicated,

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<v Speaker 8>pretty much decided to set that aside as a negotiation item.

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<v Speaker 1>Negotiations with the TPP feels like, you know, millennials ago, right,

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<v Speaker 1>But that was so much concentrated on the monutier of

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<v Speaker 1>trade clauses. What kind of deal do you think do

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<v Speaker 1>we end up getting? Is it sort of more on

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<v Speaker 1>the vibe as we've seen with some of the other

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<v Speaker 1>trade deals that have been tentatively agreed between the US

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<v Speaker 1>and its trading partners. Do you expect a fair degree

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<v Speaker 1>of actual substantive detail.

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<v Speaker 8>I think there will be some substance on trade barrier reduction,

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<v Speaker 8>and agriculture has been mentioned, and as a clear point

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<v Speaker 8>of contention, there are some non tariff barriers around automobiles

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<v Speaker 8>which could be eased. The main thrust of it, however,

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<v Speaker 8>is how much is Japan going to jump in and

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<v Speaker 8>help Donald Trump reindustrialize the United States? And he has

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<v Speaker 8>specific asks on shipbuilding and on the energy infrastructure, particularly

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<v Speaker 8>Alaska gas that Japan is considering. But these are big,

0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:25.280
<v Speaker 8>risky projects, very high ticket, extraordinarily risky, and so how

0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.199
<v Speaker 8>they could participate in these sort of things I think

0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:30.720
<v Speaker 8>is another really important topic of discussion.

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Some of those sectors are also quite domestically sensitive, right,

0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.880
<v Speaker 1>how much you know we've seen kind of the success

0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:41.880
<v Speaker 1>story for cgmping, for example, in holding that strong line.

0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 1>Does Japan and the government they need to do that

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:49.559
<v Speaker 1>to a certain extent or risk domestic further diminishing popularity.

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:50.679
<v Speaker 6>I think that's right.

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.920
<v Speaker 8>Well, they're going to make clear to the US side

0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.680
<v Speaker 8>we can do this, we can't do that, and then

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 8>help to use the timeline to their advantage edge in

0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 8>convincing the United States. Well, okay, that's good enough. We

0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:05.360
<v Speaker 8>do want to reach a deal, we do want to

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 8>move on. We don't want to have to raise retaliatory

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 8>tariffs again. So the deadline's in a sense starting to

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.040
<v Speaker 8>work in Japan's favor. But again, I want to emphasize

0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:18.600
<v Speaker 8>the crucial importance of the automobile's tariff. It's twenty five

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 8>percent tariff could have a devastating impact on some Japanese

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.560
<v Speaker 8>companies if it's allowed to drag on for a long time.

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.560
<v Speaker 7>Let's talk more broadly about some of these other trade

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 7>deals that are going on, because the US is trying

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 7>to negotiate dozens within a ninety day period. I mean,

0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 7>normally free trade agreements take years to reach agreement on.

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:40.199
<v Speaker 7>Does this suggest to you that some of what's being

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.120
<v Speaker 7>achieved here is cosmetic for domestic political purposes and can

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 7>some of these wins in due beyond the Trump p residency.

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 8>This process has been excruciating for all of the partners

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:56.200
<v Speaker 8>working with the United States. That said, there will be

0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:00.640
<v Speaker 8>some substantive outcomes which are mutually beneficial, some which are

0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:03.440
<v Speaker 8>just complete concessions to the United States in order to

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 8>get the deal done, and a lot of cosmetics. A

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.280
<v Speaker 8>lot of cosmetics will also go into this because the

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.680
<v Speaker 8>US side has now discovered that the tariffs can be

0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.320
<v Speaker 8>a problem for the United States as much as for

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 8>the counterpart, and that leverage reduction that is implicit when

0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 8>the President walked back a week after Liberation Day does

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 8>really change the dynamic of the situation.

0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 7>If you're advising some of these other countries in their

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 7>negotiations with the US, what would you be saying.

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 8>Choose a few really interesting things, sell them to Donald Trump,

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 8>dress them up a little bit if necessary, but they

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 8>do need to be substantive at the same time, and

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 8>then be consistent and sell them over and over again

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 8>until you get across the finish line.

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.240
<v Speaker 1>The big focus is still on whether the daytone with

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.600
<v Speaker 1>China can be sustained. How do you feel about that?

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 6>So Dayton's a great word for it.

0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:02.240
<v Speaker 8>They have I agreed to talk, there's no agenda, there's

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 8>no timeline.

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.160
<v Speaker 6>And both sides have reserved the right and.

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 8>Are already exercising the right to continue to take action

0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 8>against one another on other issues technology controls, export controls,

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 8>the Section two three to two tariff investigations. So what

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 8>I expect is that this truce on the big tariffs

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 8>will hold.

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:25.240
<v Speaker 6>The negotiations will take.

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.240
<v Speaker 8>A long time, and it'll be a very bumpy ride,

0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 8>with lots of ups and downs, action, counteraction, angry words,

0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 8>stretching all the way to and past the first meeting

0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.080
<v Speaker 8>of the leaders, which I would anticipate taking place in

0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 8>the fall. I see two real milestones on this. One

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 8>is the meeting of President Trump and mister she The

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.000
<v Speaker 8>other is the midterm election, where I think by the

0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 8>midterm election, President Trump needs to demonstrate that all of

0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 8>this effort that he's put into leveraging the size of

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 8>the US economy has paid off, because the American public

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:07.120
<v Speaker 8>is starting to get skeptical about how this tariff strategy

0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 8>is working for them.

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.920
<v Speaker 9>We've talked a lot about the stickiness of tariffs and

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 9>whether you know there are views that you know obviously

0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 9>the previous Trump administration policies, some which are still in place.

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 9>But do you also look at the stickiness of what, say,

0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 9>Beijingia is trying to do with its outreach in terms

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 9>of building those economics and soft and you know, harder

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 9>power alliances. Do you think that's going to be something

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 9>that extends beyond this administration?

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:33.760
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely?

0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 8>I mean this is a long term strategy for China. Now,

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 8>the Belton Road was a piece of it that's now

0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 8>been refined, made less transactional, if you will, less focused

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:49.200
<v Speaker 8>on China's needs, and there's more discussion about trade agreements,

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 8>about softer forms of investment and economic interaction, more digital,

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 8>less infrastructure, and I would expect China to really continue

0:16:58.080 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 8>to push that. And they have a bit of a

0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 8>tear win right now because of the distrust that's been

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 8>engendered by the US tariff approach. That may be temporary,

0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 8>may last a little while, but I expect China to

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:16.000
<v Speaker 8>continue this effort to make friends and try to rally

0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:19.959
<v Speaker 8>them against the United States for years to come. That

0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.400
<v Speaker 8>latter part is harder because they don't want to burn

0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:23.760
<v Speaker 8>bridges with the United States either.

0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.359
<v Speaker 7>Can you see a scenario in which China joins the

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 7>cp TPP.

0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:33.360
<v Speaker 8>I think that it's not inconceivable. A couple of years

0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.359
<v Speaker 8>ago it was close to inconceivable. I think Australia has

0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:41.160
<v Speaker 8>a major vote in this. Japan has a very strong

0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 8>opinion about it holding the content of the TPP and

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 8>keeping it high level penetrating liberalization. China is not yet

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.840
<v Speaker 8>ready to make the compromises necessary to meet those standards,

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.680
<v Speaker 8>but it's not inconceivable, especially as the Chinese onomy grows

0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 8>slower in future years, that they'll be more willing to

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.720
<v Speaker 8>revisit economic reforms that would qualify them for TPP.

0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 6>As an American citizen, I.

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.479
<v Speaker 8>Hope that the US gets its act together first and

0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.360
<v Speaker 8>makes it in before that happens.

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.959
<v Speaker 1>Trump has a very unconventional approach when it comes to trade, right,

0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:23.320
<v Speaker 1>He's not interested in looking at you revisiting FDAs and

0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 1>multilateral bilateral agreements. Does that make the structure of these

0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:32.640
<v Speaker 1>agreements less relevant in sort of today's political atmosphere?

0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 8>It makes their outcomes less lasting? I think that in

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.760
<v Speaker 8>the short term they're highly relevant. For example, the Nippon

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.560
<v Speaker 8>Steel deal that you mentioned at the outset very significant,

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 8>very positive realignment of the rhetoric around Uster Pan economic relations.

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:52.680
<v Speaker 6>But that's one episode.

0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.960
<v Speaker 8>It'll be good for the relationship for a few couple months,

0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.840
<v Speaker 8>but the structures are really important over time, and that

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.920
<v Speaker 8>unwillingness to commit the United States to lasting structures and

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 8>the economic realm is a problem for the US. On

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:08.920
<v Speaker 8>the defense side, I think the US is still very

0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 8>much there, but the economic policy side, it's been absent

0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.200
<v Speaker 8>from the table for over eight years now.

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 1>Really great to have you with us, and great to

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.159
<v Speaker 1>see here is Sydney Koktong, who's a managing partner of

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the Asia Group.

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:26.960
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.480
<v Speaker 2>Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:34.919
<v Speaker 2>shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You

0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 2>can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.159
<v Speaker 2>or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 2>insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 2>and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg