Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz Jaily. We bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Long You're going
Speaker 1: far away and we'll help Mike drop in here as
Speaker 1: he gets more information, particularly on those key ratios long
Speaker 1: ago and far away. We used to worry about what
Speaker 1: Sandwich Chairman Greenspan was carrying into the FED meetings or
Speaker 1: maybe into the inflation report. Vincent Reinhardt is expert at that.
Speaker 1: Vincent Reinhardt is with Dreyfus and Mellon and of course
Speaker 1: led all of our economic research at the FED during
Speaker 1: the green Span years. Vince, just perfect to speak to you,
Speaker 1: uh this morning. Thank you for joining this micro analysis
Speaker 1: of data post pandemic. Have you ever seen anything like it?
Speaker 1: You mentioned Alan Greenspan and he loved getting into the
Speaker 1: details of the data. So you know, the fact is
Speaker 1: the Federals are board building is pretty big, and it's
Speaker 1: stock full of economists and they look into the details
Speaker 1: of all these reports. I think that the FED chair
Speaker 1: Pal has been extremely transparent about a very specific mechanism
Speaker 1: about inflation. Uh the super core or the Pal's power core. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, really getting down into the third level of detail.
Speaker 1: I want to make clear, Jow, we need to continue
Speaker 1: to look at these markets their narrow moves. But nevertheless,
Speaker 1: we were green on the screen with a real plunge
Speaker 1: down and John, just as Mr Reinhard gives us wisdom, boom,
Speaker 1: we come right back. Interesting to say, the FX moves
Speaker 1: as well. That's a tape cent move on Doliena, which
Speaker 1: I think is what you were looking for. Yes, yes, stronger, stronger,
Speaker 1: yain there in a euro dollar one O way. Will
Speaker 1: continue to look at those major pairs. Here with vincent
Speaker 1: rein Artist, Mike McKee dies deeper into the CPI report.
Speaker 1: Vince Reinart, is this inflation completely pandemic induced or do
Speaker 1: we have issues that aarken back to when your lapel's
Speaker 1: were wider? Um so I never wore that wide lapel's, Tom,
Speaker 1: But I think the the answer is why is j
Speaker 1: Pal going into the details, Because it's the mechanics of
Speaker 1: inflation have has been worried inflation is embedded in the
Speaker 1: persistent part of the basket that households consumed, that that
Speaker 1: uh services less shelter, that might keeps mentioning, that a
Speaker 1: pal keeps mentioning. That shows up in all those speeches,
Speaker 1: And in some sense, yes, we got an inflation report
Speaker 1: exactly as as as we expected. We also got a
Speaker 1: reminder that the labor market is running pretty hot. From
Speaker 1: the fence perspective, aggregate demand has momentum that's putting pressure
Speaker 1: on resources, that will put pressure on wages and therefore
Speaker 1: on prices. Maybe not this month on prices or wages,
Speaker 1: but the mechanics are there, the mechanism that you worry
Speaker 1: about inertial inflation is there? Vincent rynrt with us and
Speaker 1: and thrilled he could join this morning, Vincent. Is there
Speaker 1: an underlying theory at the Fed? Or they literally making
Speaker 1: it up as they go? Is there? Oaken? Is there? Phillips?
Speaker 1: Is there? Tailor is there Reinhardt? Or they fly and blind.
Speaker 1: They're doing the best they can, and it's actually pretty conventional.
Speaker 1: Inflation has an umber of parts to it. John Williams
Speaker 1: talks about the inflation onion. We've gotten the good news
Speaker 1: on the outer shells commodity prices off energy prices in
Speaker 1: particular awful lot next shell in goods prices are doing
Speaker 1: better because supply chains have mended, market economies work and
Speaker 1: shift resources around. They're worried about the core. They're worried
Speaker 1: about the inertial part of inflation that is importantly gets
Speaker 1: embedded into contracts that are written at different times. And
Speaker 1: so it's a slow slog in which inflation has built
Speaker 1: and they're worried it's going to take a while for
Speaker 1: it to come down. So yes, I think markets got
Speaker 1: what they expected, even though they were hoping from good
Speaker 1: even better news. Don't don't try to get between a
Speaker 1: rally and UH and and reality. But the reality is
Speaker 1: as look at at the details, and the details are
Speaker 1: supportive of two of the three planks to the story.
Speaker 1: They they rely on momentum slack maybe not so much
Speaker 1: right now, wages and prices, but the other two things
Speaker 1: are the reason you worry about future wages and prices.
Speaker 1: I thank you, Vince out of Virginia is really something
Speaker 1: Leland Miller John with China Beige Book, And you know
Speaker 1: you look at you look at Leland Miller folks, and
Speaker 1: you say, well, what's so special about him? He has
Speaker 1: a granularity on China like no one. He frames six
Speaker 1: point two percent GDP this morning, Leland. What do you
Speaker 1: do when you hear six point two percent g d
Speaker 1: P from some competent people like ed him? And how
Speaker 1: do you react to that? In China. I think that
Speaker 1: you could get some extremely high numbers of GDP next year,
Speaker 1: but it's based on the idea that you're not just
Speaker 1: going to have the cyclical bounce back which we expect,
Speaker 1: which is and you know, firms restarting investment after COVID,
Speaker 1: euros pullback, consumers jumping back in I'll be a temporarily
Speaker 1: getting the pop off is very low basis, statistical basis.
Speaker 1: But in addition to that, in order to hit six
Speaker 1: point two, you're gonna have to have them layer on stimulus.
Speaker 1: It could happen. You're seeing headlines about stimulus, but you
Speaker 1: have to you have to expect them to be doing
Speaker 1: all these things at once. So it could happen, but
Speaker 1: it's much too early to be to be uh guessing
Speaker 1: that with any type of you know, clarity, So your expertise,
Speaker 1: like folks, the electrical grid from Shanghai out to the west,
Speaker 1: Leland Miller. If they impute a fiscal policy, can they
Speaker 1: diffuse that stimulus faster because of the power of the government,
Speaker 1: the totalitarian regime, It depends on what kind of you know,
Speaker 1: this is the question three. And we just built a
Speaker 1: proprietary fiscal stimulus index to be able to track the
Speaker 1: flows that are going into physical spending. We have a
Speaker 1: fistical activity on deck to see what's actually happening. And
Speaker 1: what's happened in December, for instance, is they're pumping money
Speaker 1: in and absolutely nothing happened that the activity in decks
Speaker 1: fell off a cliff. So it doesn't you know, just
Speaker 1: because you see a stimulus headline doesn't mean it's being
Speaker 1: worked into the economy. So that's the real problem with
Speaker 1: are we going to actually see these big headline numbers
Speaker 1: and even some of this easing that we see more broadly,
Speaker 1: will it translate an activity? How does this economic discussion
Speaker 1: translate to the medical discussion the nation faces right now? Well,
Speaker 1: Beijing is doing their best to pretend that COVID zero
Speaker 1: is gonna be a you know, a blip for a
Speaker 1: month or two and then they're on their way and
Speaker 1: you know, to some degree this will happen. But I
Speaker 1: think that the fact that you know they're acknowledging virtually
Speaker 1: no deaths and and most people are thinking they're gonna see,
Speaker 1: you know, a million deaths, you have to understand there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a cascading effect, you know, through the rest
Speaker 1: of the year. It doesn't mean you're not going to
Speaker 1: see a nice but cyclical bounce back. It doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that Chinese assets are gonna rally like crazy for a while.
Speaker 1: It just means that you know, this is not something
Speaker 1: where you can dive into, dive out of, and have
Speaker 1: no effect in the middle. And you also have the
Speaker 1: possibility that later on the year you have another problem
Speaker 1: with COVID. So there's a lot of potential risks here
Speaker 1: that are getting camouflaged by people's optimism over the fact
Speaker 1: that the middle of the year should look should look
Speaker 1: quite good. Leland, the China, this real opening is not
Speaker 1: the China that shut down. There is an argument for
Speaker 1: many that perhaps this consumer, the Chinese consumer, is a
Speaker 1: little bit more nationalistic. Leland which trying to work out
Speaker 1: where this demand actually shows up kicks in. Does it
Speaker 1: go abroad to people travel to Canada, Vancouver try and
Speaker 1: buy property like they tried to before. Trudeau is trying
Speaker 1: to stop that. Government scantists is trying to do the
Speaker 1: same thing in Florida. How do you think this is
Speaker 1: going to pan out? Yeah, there's been this idea that
Speaker 1: just because Chinese consumers haven't spent for a while, that
Speaker 1: they're gonna take their money, They're gonna run out of
Speaker 1: the country, They're gonna spread around the world. This is
Speaker 1: never really in the way it works. Chinese travelers used
Speaker 1: to spend a lot of money abroad. They're not buying
Speaker 1: a lot from abroad. But I think even the even
Speaker 1: the travel parts have to be moderated. Right now, people
Speaker 1: are seeing the relatives domestically for the first time, and
Speaker 1: you know, in three years, uh, plane ticket prices are
Speaker 1: through the roof. You know, there's just a lot of
Speaker 1: guessing people are doing in terms of skyrocketing travels coming
Speaker 1: back and skyrocketing. This is coming back, and China's gonna
Speaker 1: guide us into the next stage of uh, you know,
Speaker 1: of global consumption. This has never been true. So I
Speaker 1: think we need to we need to be very very
Speaker 1: cautious on assuming Chinese consumers are gonna do anything for
Speaker 1: the for the world. Even just one final question from
Speaker 1: me as well, I think we're all trying to work
Speaker 1: out how much bad dates will have to look through
Speaker 1: in the near term and for how long, which basically
Speaker 1: is is what you're touching on at the moment, Leland,
Speaker 1: How quickly do you think this will snap back, snap
Speaker 1: back in and we'll start to see that good stuff
Speaker 1: in the future. Well, look, I I think you one
Speaker 1: is going to be a mess. Uh. The second the
Speaker 1: second quarters when you'll see a reactivation of the economy uh,
Speaker 1: and are going off you know, very low numbers. So
Speaker 1: people could be very very pleased with with the with
Speaker 1: the bounce they're seeing the middle of the year. The
Speaker 1: key part is this could be a head fake because
Speaker 1: maybe you see three or four quarters of growth pop
Speaker 1: back up, you're still in the midst of a long
Speaker 1: term structural slowdown. So for the next you know, for
Speaker 1: moste people could be talking about the cyclical uptick. But
Speaker 1: then after that, as we get towards the end of
Speaker 1: the year, we're gonna start re talking about the structural slowdown,
Speaker 1: which is going in the other direction. Lay the minute
Speaker 1: of that. The see China Pacebook one of the best
Speaker 1: leading just fantastic, Canso White Seth, Thank you everybody. We
Speaker 1: talked to folks rights in a certain way. The religion
Speaker 1: of reading high frequency economics is founded on the concision
Speaker 1: and depth of the daily reports of Carl Weinberg. He
Speaker 1: joins us right now, Chief Economists, the force of high
Speaker 1: frequency economics in your eight pages, Carl, with every paragraph
Speaker 1: having value, linking global echo with your concerns into the
Speaker 1: dynamics of yield. What's the single paragraph our audience needs
Speaker 1: to know right now? Well, good morning, tom um. You
Speaker 1: know the I think the most important observation that I've
Speaker 1: had in a long time is that everywhere I look
Speaker 1: in the world, wages are increasing by less than prices.
Speaker 1: And that tells me that you can't explain what you're
Speaker 1: seeing in prices by a wage spiral, because wage prices
Speaker 1: are inspiraling alright, Wages, if anything, are slowing down inflation.
Speaker 1: So we're breaking inflation into two pieces. The first is
Speaker 1: a one time price increase that we experienced in that
Speaker 1: now is leveling off. When we look at the CPI
Speaker 1: this morning, it's almost level months per month, it's almost
Speaker 1: uh and that's bringing down year over year rates of
Speaker 1: CPI increase that we call inflation. Whether it is or not,
Speaker 1: discuss another day. And then there's the bigger problem of
Speaker 1: wages that may occur if the unemployment rate stays as
Speaker 1: low as it is. And that's what we think that
Speaker 1: the FET is watching. So what we'll all see inflation
Speaker 1: metrics come down this year at least early part of
Speaker 1: this year. The FET is still going to keep on
Speaker 1: Hockey rates. Are we still in a supply side analysis?
Speaker 1: In a timeline of supply side analysis? Even if our
Speaker 1: institutions only can do demand side action, yeah, so um,
Speaker 1: our institutions can also do supply side action. I mean,
Speaker 1: why do prices go up? Alright? One reason is that
Speaker 1: we have too much demand? And that was, as I
Speaker 1: said before, the one time fiscal stimulus monetized gave people
Speaker 1: more money in their cash accounts than they needed. They
Speaker 1: bought more stuff than the economy could produce. Prices went up.
Speaker 1: That's that's history. Now we're moving past them. But the
Speaker 1: supply side issue is that when wages go up, the
Speaker 1: supply curve shifts upward, and that raises prices while at
Speaker 1: the same time reducing output. And that's the spiral that
Speaker 1: we want to make sure that the FED wats to
Speaker 1: make sure that we don't get into That's why we're
Speaker 1: going to see them move rates up to five and
Speaker 1: not move them down later this year, as the market
Speaker 1: currently is believing they're going to. You know, it's it's interesting,
Speaker 1: you know, President Biden's out with a tweet here for
Speaker 1: the six month in a row yearly inflation is down.
Speaker 1: I mean, that is absolutely correct. Does that not give
Speaker 1: maybe the Fed, you know, to see six months of
Speaker 1: declining inflation to say, hey, maybe what we've done so
Speaker 1: far is in fact working, It is cooling this economy.
Speaker 1: Maybe we can take a more cautious approach, maybe even
Speaker 1: pause in the near future. What do you think about that? Well,
Speaker 1: you know, the Fed's job is to make sure that
Speaker 1: the inflation target is hit in the medium term, not
Speaker 1: just in the next two, three or six months. And
Speaker 1: we forget that. It was just less than a week ago,
Speaker 1: five six days ago, that we printed a labor market
Speaker 1: report which showed hundred two hund a thousand jobs two
Speaker 1: and three thousand jobs being created and an unemployment rated
Speaker 1: a fifty year low. So you know, everything we know
Speaker 1: about economics, everything the FED knows about Economics says that
Speaker 1: if the unemployment rate keeps on coming down or even
Speaker 1: just stays at this level, eventually we're gonna wage pressure.
Speaker 1: So that's where their eye is that you know, months
Speaker 1: to months, we will see a year over year increases
Speaker 1: in prices slow down, will decrease, and that will be
Speaker 1: good news. The market will treat that as falling inflation.
Speaker 1: But the FEDS is on the labor market, and every
Speaker 1: FED speaker, if there is only one thing that they
Speaker 1: all talk about without exception, is how tight the labor
Speaker 1: market is. It still is, inflation is still above target.
Speaker 1: We're going to see continued rate increases and sustained high rates.
Speaker 1: Carolinberrg Frequency Economics, Paul, I looked out on my phone
Speaker 1: just to see what the red sox are doing about
Speaker 1: shortstop in the market moved that's where green on the
Speaker 1: screen and now I got futures of negative thirty three
Speaker 1: here that with the opening the VIX twenty zero at six.
Speaker 1: I do want to point not Brent crude and barrel
Speaker 1: is elevated in gold. When is the last time I
Speaker 1: talked about two thousand dollars? I know, and it's interesting
Speaker 1: to bitcoin up as well. So Carl, recession call. How
Speaker 1: are you thinking about this now? Given the latest CPI prane,
Speaker 1: What is your recession scenario? I guess well, growth is
Speaker 1: certainly going to be slower as we move into three
Speaker 1: There's there's no doubt about that. Sets hyped interest rates,
Speaker 1: real incomes are still not keeping up with um price increases,
Speaker 1: households are drawing down savings and pulling up their credit
Speaker 1: card bills in or do maintain lifestyles. Things are going
Speaker 1: to slow and high frequency economics. We think that the
Speaker 1: US economy is strong enough to still power through this
Speaker 1: on the basis of a strong industrial fundamentals and on
Speaker 1: the basis of normalizing economic policy. So we think we're
Speaker 1: going to avoid a recession in the United States. I
Speaker 1: won't rule one out all together, but I think the
Speaker 1: baseline case has to be slower growth in the US
Speaker 1: while the rest of the world, Europe, the UK, Japan
Speaker 1: all see economic contractions for equity investors, that's a better
Speaker 1: fundamental in the US from economics than we're going to
Speaker 1: see elsewhere in the world. Carl, how concerned are you
Speaker 1: about you know, Europe here in terms of their economy
Speaker 1: here and the impact they may have. I mean, China
Speaker 1: reopening certainly a positive for a lot of the European
Speaker 1: manufacturing sector. But what's your view in Europe here, Well,
Speaker 1: before we talk about Europe, I'm just going to double
Speaker 1: back on your China reopening the theory, and the theory
Speaker 1: in my view, has no basis and current experience. You know,
Speaker 1: we've never seen amicron sweep through a country and just see,
Speaker 1: you know, one and done. Everything goes back to normal
Speaker 1: the next day, and the big wave of amicron has
Speaker 1: yet to hit, you know, after the lunar New Year,
Speaker 1: we'll see a big wave and staid theily then we'll
Speaker 1: see more waves after it. And as you guys have
Speaker 1: been talking about on the program earlier, absentee ism keeps
Speaker 1: people out of the office just as much as lockdowns do.
Speaker 1: So I think China's episode with COVID and economic problems
Speaker 1: are a long way off from snapping back. But I
Speaker 1: think it's wrong time about that. It's really Europe. Excuse me,
Speaker 1: answer the question on your my fault I jumped in there.
Speaker 1: You know it's my fault. I didn't answer the question
Speaker 1: on you know Europe is headed for a recession. It's
Speaker 1: been headed for a recession for a long time. Industrial
Speaker 1: output is flat. They're suffering from an energy shortage. They're
Speaker 1: in a war zone. They're in an economic war zone,
Speaker 1: and they're going to be diverting resources to defense over
Speaker 1: the course of the next year. Um interest rates are
Speaker 1: going up, and again wages aren't up with price increases.
Speaker 1: I got thirty seconds. You're acclaimed China. Note what's your
Speaker 1: GDP view on China? We got people sucking five. You
Speaker 1: don't buy that. Now, those people need to get a
Speaker 1: spreadsheet and learn about arithmetic. If the economy contracts in
Speaker 1: the fourth quarters, we'll know about next week, all right,
Speaker 1: then it's going to be impossible for China to grow
Speaker 1: more than over the course of Caroline brig thank you
Speaker 1: so much. You know he says that, and he doesn't
Speaker 1: realize I'm the worst user of Excel spreadsheets on the street.
Speaker 1: And we are privileged for a repeat performance from Dana
Speaker 1: Telsa's chief executive officer and also of research and tells
Speaker 1: the advisory group on the pulse of American at retail.
Speaker 1: I've got to go to the gossip of the moment,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna say this with respect. Richest guy in
Speaker 1: the world, a guy that took Louis Vuitton and figured
Speaker 1: out how to do luxury fashion. There's nepotism involved here.
Speaker 1: How do you address is one of the most grizzled
Speaker 1: veterans on the street when it is about relationships. If
Speaker 1: it's product in relationships or it's lvm H with his
Speaker 1: daughter coming over to run, do you are? Is that
Speaker 1: a plus or minus? Right now? It's a plus? And
Speaker 1: the reason why these aren't new people going into those
Speaker 1: business lines. She's been involved into yor she's been there
Speaker 1: twenty years, so you're getting experience and you have to
Speaker 1: say the succession planning. But look at the depth of
Speaker 1: talent underneath her and Franklin each of the brands. What
Speaker 1: they have with seventy five brands at LVMH, they have
Speaker 1: the experiential talent to move everyone up the line and
Speaker 1: that's what they do. These have log convexity. These luxury
Speaker 1: groups off China opening and the rest. You predicted this
Speaker 1: with your team. They're a moonshot right now. Can you
Speaker 1: acquire shares this morning in these heritage luxury brands? You
Speaker 1: can because the next development will be the reopening in
Speaker 1: China and that China consumer. We've already heard from others.
Speaker 1: I mean, look at what Neiman Marcus most recently said
Speaker 1: about the strength of the holiday season, and you're seeing
Speaker 1: the product innovation driving demand. So I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be a good season. But let's keep in mind
Speaker 1: we're still having consumers in all areas. With the volatility
Speaker 1: of the market, there's been a step down in terms
Speaker 1: of what the rate of growth is compared to last year.
Speaker 1: And even so one more question on luxury, can you
Speaker 1: overweight luxury now? Is the market is overweighting luxury. I
Speaker 1: don't think the market's overweighting luxury yet. Really were the
Speaker 1: moon shots were seeing in some of these things. I
Speaker 1: think there's more opportunity when the holiday sales come in
Speaker 1: because also the ability to drive strength out of China
Speaker 1: that's going and luxury, particularly when you look at to China.
Speaker 1: What's your single best buy right now, I mean it's LVI,
Speaker 1: m H in the international, it's Tapestry in the domestic,
Speaker 1: and the other one Ralph Lauren. Ralph Lauren has a
Speaker 1: significant opportunity, So we'll go to that in a moment.
Speaker 1: I mean, tap, this is killing me. You know how
Speaker 1: much I hate this. This is Coach right, Yes, but
Speaker 1: it's coach, it's Stewart Whiteman and Skate Spade and what
Speaker 1: they've been able to do in resetting prices, updating the
Speaker 1: brands Wesselman, they did the Tom Wesselman thing. Is that
Speaker 1: where we're going. Where these brands come in and they
Speaker 1: get famous celebrities and artists like they'll do a Dana
Speaker 1: Telsey code or something like. I don't know about that.
Speaker 1: It's collaborations, they matter. Collaborations drive demanding. You know why
Speaker 1: they go viral on social media? Everyone sees them and
Speaker 1: there you go sell through. Hat does social media help
Speaker 1: Macy's move forward to the big boxes that Joe Felman
Speaker 1: looks at, Yeah, it does. I mean we just had
Speaker 1: a dinner with Macy's the other night. The personalization and
Speaker 1: pricing science that's being allocated to their merchandising is really
Speaker 1: helping them navigate a consumer environment that's definitely a bit
Speaker 1: more challenging for the income level of the Macy's consumer.
Speaker 1: How do they manage expenses? At that dinner that they
Speaker 1: talk about the cross rationalization of suburban malls that are
Speaker 1: off the mark, Well, not only that, but what about
Speaker 1: the bed Bath and Beyond stores? That could come up
Speaker 1: for play and there's a healthy demand. Even a marketplace
Speaker 1: by Macy's or the off prices want those boxes. Those
Speaker 1: are good boxes in great location for the same concept.
Speaker 1: For Macy's, it's a from concept. It's a smaller marketplace
Speaker 1: by Macy's concept that they put in there. But let's
Speaker 1: see what develops with these bed bath and beyond location.
Speaker 1: My recollection is tells the advisor group avoided the carnage
Speaker 1: of bed bathroom Beyond. Let's be constructive. Why did they
Speaker 1: feel what's the best practice forward for retail not to
Speaker 1: do a bed bathroom beyond. You need branded merchandise under
Speaker 1: a halo, not just private label brands. And also you
Speaker 1: need to be able to continue to innovate the offering.
Speaker 1: And yet home goods out there taking share and you
Speaker 1: didn't play up what made bed bathroom beyond so special?
Speaker 1: Go in there and buy more than you originally expected,
Speaker 1: got a lift to the market. The vixen a stick
Speaker 1: here with Dana Telsey and tells the advisory I grew
Speaker 1: up watching this carefully less curve and version than what
Speaker 1: we saw off the CPI report. Dana, I've got to
Speaker 1: wrap up with the guy who is iconic, Relf is ralf.
Speaker 1: Does he have nepotism and play like Mr Arnault or
Speaker 1: does he have a succession plan? He's a bit ancient, um.
Speaker 1: I think overall, look at the team that you have
Speaker 1: there now with Patrise Louve and Jane Nielsen CEO and CEO.
Speaker 1: They're taking the brand to the next level and modernizing
Speaker 1: it and it's showing up in the numbers and the
Speaker 1: au are and consumers are reacting. One question, single best
Speaker 1: buy right now for Telsea Advisory Group. Across all your team.
Speaker 1: I mean, we have a bunch of names that cost in.
Speaker 1: Joe likes Amazon, It's been a favorite name of his.
Speaker 1: But also let's take a look at what some of
Speaker 1: these off prices are doing. I mean the t j
Speaker 1: X certainly were watching. I would say that you look
Speaker 1: at Abercrombie and Fitch and it's exciting. Really, Ralph Lauren,
Speaker 1: do you know that Michael McKee almost was a model
Speaker 1: at Abercrombie fit years ago? Okay, well you know it's
Speaker 1: a different today than it was then. Yeah, I would
Speaker 1: have been helmet. What's what everyone knows this brand they're
Speaker 1: going to resurrected again. How's the Abercrombie and fitsh gonna
Speaker 1: do it. What the what's the pixie dust? The pixie
Speaker 1: dust this time is the Abercrombie and Fitch brand has
Speaker 1: aged up. They're getting it's better quality. Yep, it's not
Speaker 1: the teens and Hollisters showing some improvement in their assortment
Speaker 1: and getting the men's withsiness data. Telsey, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: We're gonna age jump and continue with Keenan McKee. As
Speaker 1: we age up, tell me about the ageless comments some
Speaker 1: Hearkin and also Mike, what you see in this historic
Speaker 1: inflation report? Well, Pat Harker is joining the crowd that
Speaker 1: says basis points in the numbers today, justify that with
Speaker 1: a one tenth drop on a month over month basis
Speaker 1: in December pushes the headline number down to six and
Speaker 1: a half percent. So on the path to where the
Speaker 1: Fed wants it to be. Interesting thought here with Dana
Speaker 1: here is I'm looking at apparel costs and everybody thought
Speaker 1: maybe we'd see a discount on that, but we have
Speaker 1: their up half a percent because men's clothes went up.
Speaker 1: Almost all of women's clothes fell, men's and boys went up.
Speaker 1: So the interesting thing there company after a company I
Speaker 1: spoke to over the past three days. Men's is showing
Speaker 1: improvement and all the retailers inventory levels are coming down
Speaker 1: faster than expected, and that's going to be a good thing.
Speaker 1: They told Tom he needs a new suit. The interesting
Speaker 1: things and woes. Yeah, men's and women over twenty years old,
Speaker 1: that's what that's the problem. I look to wrap this up, Dane,
Speaker 1: I'm so sorry. I've got to go to Mike here
Speaker 1: as we drive forward into the Bloomberg that morning, Mike,
Speaker 1: are we going to have the same inflation frenzy thirty
Speaker 1: days from now? Sure? I mean, this is because it's
Speaker 1: all about inflation for the FED, and the Fed's going
Speaker 1: to keep going or at least hold until they are
Speaker 1: convinced that inflation is going down to present and we
Speaker 1: don't know what it's going to take to convince them.
Speaker 1: John emails in from Manhattan. He says, asked Dane about
Speaker 1: when Tiffany opens. That's like soon, right, like a couple
Speaker 1: of months here should be. Second half of three brings
Speaker 1: more traffic to the whole area. Has a restaurant in
Speaker 1: the in the business, in the in the store too.
Speaker 1: It's gonna make sexing prices of slumbers and that Tiffany,
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? The ron nose are nuts. They
Speaker 1: walk around saying take the price up, It'll create demand.
Speaker 1: That's good, Dana Telsea, thank you so much. Our economic
Speaker 1: report from Telsea Advisory Group today. This is the Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg