1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz Jaily. We bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Long You're going 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: far away and we'll help Mike drop in here as 7 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: he gets more information, particularly on those key ratios long 8 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: ago and far away. We used to worry about what 9 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: Sandwich Chairman Greenspan was carrying into the FED meetings or 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: maybe into the inflation report. Vincent Reinhardt is expert at that. 11 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: Vincent Reinhardt is with Dreyfus and Mellon and of course 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: led all of our economic research at the FED during 13 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: the green Span years. Vince, just perfect to speak to you, 14 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: uh this morning. Thank you for joining this micro analysis 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: of data post pandemic. Have you ever seen anything like it? 16 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: You mentioned Alan Greenspan and he loved getting into the 17 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: details of the data. So you know, the fact is 18 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: the Federals are board building is pretty big, and it's 19 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: stock full of economists and they look into the details 20 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: of all these reports. I think that the FED chair 21 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: Pal has been extremely transparent about a very specific mechanism 22 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: about inflation. Uh the super core or the Pal's power core. Uh, 23 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: you know, really getting down into the third level of detail. 24 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: I want to make clear, Jow, we need to continue 25 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: to look at these markets their narrow moves. But nevertheless, 26 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: we were green on the screen with a real plunge 27 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: down and John, just as Mr Reinhard gives us wisdom, boom, 28 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: we come right back. Interesting to say, the FX moves 29 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: as well. That's a tape cent move on Doliena, which 30 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: I think is what you were looking for. Yes, yes, stronger, stronger, 31 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: yain there in a euro dollar one O way. Will 32 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,519 Speaker 1: continue to look at those major pairs. Here with vincent 33 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: rein Artist, Mike McKee dies deeper into the CPI report. 34 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: Vince Reinart, is this inflation completely pandemic induced or do 35 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: we have issues that aarken back to when your lapel's 36 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: were wider? Um so I never wore that wide lapel's, Tom, 37 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: But I think the the answer is why is j 38 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: Pal going into the details, Because it's the mechanics of 39 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: inflation have has been worried inflation is embedded in the 40 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: persistent part of the basket that households consumed, that that 41 00:02:54,560 --> 00:03:00,079 Speaker 1: uh services less shelter, that might keeps mentioning, that a 42 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: pal keeps mentioning. That shows up in all those speeches, 43 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: And in some sense, yes, we got an inflation report 44 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: exactly as as as we expected. We also got a 45 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: reminder that the labor market is running pretty hot. From 46 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: the fence perspective, aggregate demand has momentum that's putting pressure 47 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: on resources, that will put pressure on wages and therefore 48 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: on prices. Maybe not this month on prices or wages, 49 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: but the mechanics are there, the mechanism that you worry 50 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: about inertial inflation is there? Vincent rynrt with us and 51 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: and thrilled he could join this morning, Vincent. Is there 52 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: an underlying theory at the Fed? Or they literally making 53 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: it up as they go? Is there? Oaken? Is there? Phillips? 54 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: Is there? Tailor is there Reinhardt? Or they fly and blind. 55 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: They're doing the best they can, and it's actually pretty conventional. 56 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: Inflation has an umber of parts to it. John Williams 57 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: talks about the inflation onion. We've gotten the good news 58 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: on the outer shells commodity prices off energy prices in 59 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: particular awful lot next shell in goods prices are doing 60 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: better because supply chains have mended, market economies work and 61 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: shift resources around. They're worried about the core. They're worried 62 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: about the inertial part of inflation that is importantly gets 63 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: embedded into contracts that are written at different times. And 64 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: so it's a slow slog in which inflation has built 65 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: and they're worried it's going to take a while for 66 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: it to come down. So yes, I think markets got 67 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: what they expected, even though they were hoping from good 68 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: even better news. Don't don't try to get between a 69 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 1: rally and UH and and reality. But the reality is 70 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: as look at at the details, and the details are 71 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 1: supportive of two of the three planks to the story. 72 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: They they rely on momentum slack maybe not so much 73 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,559 Speaker 1: right now, wages and prices, but the other two things 74 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: are the reason you worry about future wages and prices. 75 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: I thank you, Vince out of Virginia is really something 76 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: Leland Miller John with China Beige Book, And you know 77 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: you look at you look at Leland Miller folks, and 78 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,119 Speaker 1: you say, well, what's so special about him? He has 79 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: a granularity on China like no one. He frames six 80 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: point two percent GDP this morning, Leland. What do you 81 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: do when you hear six point two percent g d 82 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: P from some competent people like ed him? And how 83 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: do you react to that? In China. I think that 84 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: you could get some extremely high numbers of GDP next year, 85 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: but it's based on the idea that you're not just 86 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: going to have the cyclical bounce back which we expect, 87 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: which is and you know, firms restarting investment after COVID, 88 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: euros pullback, consumers jumping back in I'll be a temporarily 89 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: getting the pop off is very low basis, statistical basis. 90 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: But in addition to that, in order to hit six 91 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: point two, you're gonna have to have them layer on stimulus. 92 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: It could happen. You're seeing headlines about stimulus, but you 93 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: have to you have to expect them to be doing 94 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: all these things at once. So it could happen, but 95 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 1: it's much too early to be to be uh guessing 96 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: that with any type of you know, clarity, So your expertise, 97 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: like folks, the electrical grid from Shanghai out to the west, 98 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: Leland Miller. If they impute a fiscal policy, can they 99 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: diffuse that stimulus faster because of the power of the government, 100 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: the totalitarian regime, It depends on what kind of you know, 101 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: this is the question three. And we just built a 102 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: proprietary fiscal stimulus index to be able to track the 103 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: flows that are going into physical spending. We have a 104 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: fistical activity on deck to see what's actually happening. And 105 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,559 Speaker 1: what's happened in December, for instance, is they're pumping money 106 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: in and absolutely nothing happened that the activity in decks 107 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: fell off a cliff. So it doesn't you know, just 108 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: because you see a stimulus headline doesn't mean it's being 109 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: worked into the economy. So that's the real problem with 110 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: are we going to actually see these big headline numbers 111 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: and even some of this easing that we see more broadly, 112 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: will it translate an activity? How does this economic discussion 113 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: translate to the medical discussion the nation faces right now? Well, 114 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: Beijing is doing their best to pretend that COVID zero 115 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: is gonna be a you know, a blip for a 116 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: month or two and then they're on their way and 117 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: you know, to some degree this will happen. But I 118 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: think that the fact that you know they're acknowledging virtually 119 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: no deaths and and most people are thinking they're gonna see, 120 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: you know, a million deaths, you have to understand there's 121 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: gonna be a cascading effect, you know, through the rest 122 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: of the year. It doesn't mean you're not going to 123 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: see a nice but cyclical bounce back. It doesn't mean 124 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: that Chinese assets are gonna rally like crazy for a while. 125 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: It just means that you know, this is not something 126 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: where you can dive into, dive out of, and have 127 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: no effect in the middle. And you also have the 128 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: possibility that later on the year you have another problem 129 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: with COVID. So there's a lot of potential risks here 130 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: that are getting camouflaged by people's optimism over the fact 131 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: that the middle of the year should look should look 132 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: quite good. Leland, the China, this real opening is not 133 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: the China that shut down. There is an argument for 134 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: many that perhaps this consumer, the Chinese consumer, is a 135 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: little bit more nationalistic. Leland which trying to work out 136 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: where this demand actually shows up kicks in. Does it 137 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: go abroad to people travel to Canada, Vancouver try and 138 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: buy property like they tried to before. Trudeau is trying 139 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: to stop that. Government scantists is trying to do the 140 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: same thing in Florida. How do you think this is 141 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: going to pan out? Yeah, there's been this idea that 142 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: just because Chinese consumers haven't spent for a while, that 143 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 1: they're gonna take their money, They're gonna run out of 144 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: the country, They're gonna spread around the world. This is 145 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: never really in the way it works. Chinese travelers used 146 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: to spend a lot of money abroad. They're not buying 147 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: a lot from abroad. But I think even the even 148 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 1: the travel parts have to be moderated. Right now, people 149 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,319 Speaker 1: are seeing the relatives domestically for the first time, and 150 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: you know, in three years, uh, plane ticket prices are 151 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: through the roof. You know, there's just a lot of 152 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 1: guessing people are doing in terms of skyrocketing travels coming 153 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: back and skyrocketing. This is coming back, and China's gonna 154 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: guide us into the next stage of uh, you know, 155 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: of global consumption. This has never been true. So I 156 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: think we need to we need to be very very 157 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: cautious on assuming Chinese consumers are gonna do anything for 158 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: the for the world. Even just one final question from 159 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: me as well, I think we're all trying to work 160 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: out how much bad dates will have to look through 161 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 1: in the near term and for how long, which basically 162 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: is is what you're touching on at the moment, Leland, 163 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: How quickly do you think this will snap back, snap 164 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: back in and we'll start to see that good stuff 165 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 1: in the future. Well, look, I I think you one 166 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: is going to be a mess. Uh. The second the 167 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: second quarters when you'll see a reactivation of the economy uh, 168 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: and are going off you know, very low numbers. So 169 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: people could be very very pleased with with the with 170 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 1: the bounce they're seeing the middle of the year. The 171 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: key part is this could be a head fake because 172 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 1: maybe you see three or four quarters of growth pop 173 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 1: back up, you're still in the midst of a long 174 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: term structural slowdown. So for the next you know, for 175 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: moste people could be talking about the cyclical uptick. But 176 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: then after that, as we get towards the end of 177 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: the year, we're gonna start re talking about the structural slowdown, 178 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: which is going in the other direction. Lay the minute 179 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: of that. The see China Pacebook one of the best 180 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: leading just fantastic, Canso White Seth, Thank you everybody. We 181 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: talked to folks rights in a certain way. The religion 182 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: of reading high frequency economics is founded on the concision 183 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: and depth of the daily reports of Carl Weinberg. He 184 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: joins us right now, Chief Economists, the force of high 185 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: frequency economics in your eight pages, Carl, with every paragraph 186 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: having value, linking global echo with your concerns into the 187 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: dynamics of yield. What's the single paragraph our audience needs 188 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: to know right now? Well, good morning, tom um. You 189 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: know the I think the most important observation that I've 190 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: had in a long time is that everywhere I look 191 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: in the world, wages are increasing by less than prices. 192 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: And that tells me that you can't explain what you're 193 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: seeing in prices by a wage spiral, because wage prices 194 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: are inspiraling alright, Wages, if anything, are slowing down inflation. 195 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: So we're breaking inflation into two pieces. The first is 196 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: a one time price increase that we experienced in that 197 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: now is leveling off. When we look at the CPI 198 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: this morning, it's almost level months per month, it's almost 199 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: uh and that's bringing down year over year rates of 200 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: CPI increase that we call inflation. Whether it is or not, 201 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: discuss another day. And then there's the bigger problem of 202 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: wages that may occur if the unemployment rate stays as 203 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: low as it is. And that's what we think that 204 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: the FET is watching. So what we'll all see inflation 205 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 1: metrics come down this year at least early part of 206 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: this year. The FET is still going to keep on 207 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: Hockey rates. Are we still in a supply side analysis? 208 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 1: In a timeline of supply side analysis? Even if our 209 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: institutions only can do demand side action, yeah, so um, 210 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: our institutions can also do supply side action. I mean, 211 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 1: why do prices go up? Alright? One reason is that 212 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 1: we have too much demand? And that was, as I 213 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: said before, the one time fiscal stimulus monetized gave people 214 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: more money in their cash accounts than they needed. They 215 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: bought more stuff than the economy could produce. Prices went up. 216 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: That's that's history. Now we're moving past them. But the 217 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: supply side issue is that when wages go up, the 218 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: supply curve shifts upward, and that raises prices while at 219 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: the same time reducing output. And that's the spiral that 220 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: we want to make sure that the FED wats to 221 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: make sure that we don't get into That's why we're 222 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: going to see them move rates up to five and 223 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: not move them down later this year, as the market 224 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: currently is believing they're going to. You know, it's it's interesting, 225 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: you know, President Biden's out with a tweet here for 226 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 1: the six month in a row yearly inflation is down. 227 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: I mean, that is absolutely correct. Does that not give 228 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: maybe the Fed, you know, to see six months of 229 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: declining inflation to say, hey, maybe what we've done so 230 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,199 Speaker 1: far is in fact working, It is cooling this economy. 231 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: Maybe we can take a more cautious approach, maybe even 232 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: pause in the near future. What do you think about that? Well, 233 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: you know, the Fed's job is to make sure that 234 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: the inflation target is hit in the medium term, not 235 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: just in the next two, three or six months. And 236 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: we forget that. It was just less than a week ago, 237 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: five six days ago, that we printed a labor market 238 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: report which showed hundred two hund a thousand jobs two 239 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: and three thousand jobs being created and an unemployment rated 240 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: a fifty year low. So you know, everything we know 241 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: about economics, everything the FED knows about Economics says that 242 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: if the unemployment rate keeps on coming down or even 243 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: just stays at this level, eventually we're gonna wage pressure. 244 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: So that's where their eye is that you know, months 245 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: to months, we will see a year over year increases 246 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: in prices slow down, will decrease, and that will be 247 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: good news. The market will treat that as falling inflation. 248 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: But the FEDS is on the labor market, and every 249 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: FED speaker, if there is only one thing that they 250 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: all talk about without exception, is how tight the labor 251 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: market is. It still is, inflation is still above target. 252 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: We're going to see continued rate increases and sustained high rates. 253 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: Carolinberrg Frequency Economics, Paul, I looked out on my phone 254 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: just to see what the red sox are doing about 255 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: shortstop in the market moved that's where green on the 256 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 1: screen and now I got futures of negative thirty three 257 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: here that with the opening the VIX twenty zero at six. 258 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: I do want to point not Brent crude and barrel 259 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: is elevated in gold. When is the last time I 260 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: talked about two thousand dollars? I know, and it's interesting 261 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: to bitcoin up as well. So Carl, recession call. How 262 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: are you thinking about this now? Given the latest CPI prane, 263 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: What is your recession scenario? I guess well, growth is 264 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: certainly going to be slower as we move into three 265 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: There's there's no doubt about that. Sets hyped interest rates, 266 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: real incomes are still not keeping up with um price increases, 267 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: households are drawing down savings and pulling up their credit 268 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: card bills in or do maintain lifestyles. Things are going 269 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: to slow and high frequency economics. We think that the 270 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: US economy is strong enough to still power through this 271 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: on the basis of a strong industrial fundamentals and on 272 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: the basis of normalizing economic policy. So we think we're 273 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: going to avoid a recession in the United States. I 274 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: won't rule one out all together, but I think the 275 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: baseline case has to be slower growth in the US 276 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: while the rest of the world, Europe, the UK, Japan 277 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: all see economic contractions for equity investors, that's a better 278 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: fundamental in the US from economics than we're going to 279 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: see elsewhere in the world. Carl, how concerned are you 280 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,359 Speaker 1: about you know, Europe here in terms of their economy 281 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: here and the impact they may have. I mean, China 282 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: reopening certainly a positive for a lot of the European 283 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: manufacturing sector. But what's your view in Europe here, Well, 284 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: before we talk about Europe, I'm just going to double 285 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: back on your China reopening the theory, and the theory 286 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: in my view, has no basis and current experience. You know, 287 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: we've never seen amicron sweep through a country and just see, 288 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: you know, one and done. Everything goes back to normal 289 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: the next day, and the big wave of amicron has 290 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: yet to hit, you know, after the lunar New Year, 291 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: we'll see a big wave and staid theily then we'll 292 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: see more waves after it. And as you guys have 293 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: been talking about on the program earlier, absentee ism keeps 294 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: people out of the office just as much as lockdowns do. 295 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: So I think China's episode with COVID and economic problems 296 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: are a long way off from snapping back. But I 297 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: think it's wrong time about that. It's really Europe. Excuse me, 298 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: answer the question on your my fault I jumped in there. 299 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: You know it's my fault. I didn't answer the question 300 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: on you know Europe is headed for a recession. It's 301 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,679 Speaker 1: been headed for a recession for a long time. Industrial 302 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: output is flat. They're suffering from an energy shortage. They're 303 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: in a war zone. They're in an economic war zone, 304 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 1: and they're going to be diverting resources to defense over 305 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 1: the course of the next year. Um interest rates are 306 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: going up, and again wages aren't up with price increases. 307 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: I got thirty seconds. You're acclaimed China. Note what's your 308 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: GDP view on China? We got people sucking five. You 309 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: don't buy that. Now, those people need to get a 310 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: spreadsheet and learn about arithmetic. If the economy contracts in 311 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 1: the fourth quarters, we'll know about next week, all right, 312 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,360 Speaker 1: then it's going to be impossible for China to grow 313 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: more than over the course of Caroline brig thank you 314 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: so much. You know he says that, and he doesn't 315 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: realize I'm the worst user of Excel spreadsheets on the street. 316 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: And we are privileged for a repeat performance from Dana 317 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: Telsa's chief executive officer and also of research and tells 318 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: the advisory group on the pulse of American at retail. 319 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: I've got to go to the gossip of the moment, 320 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,199 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna say this with respect. Richest guy in 321 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: the world, a guy that took Louis Vuitton and figured 322 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: out how to do luxury fashion. There's nepotism involved here. 323 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: How do you address is one of the most grizzled 324 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: veterans on the street when it is about relationships. If 325 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: it's product in relationships or it's lvm H with his 326 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: daughter coming over to run, do you are? Is that 327 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: a plus or minus? Right now? It's a plus? And 328 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: the reason why these aren't new people going into those 329 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: business lines. She's been involved into yor she's been there 330 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: twenty years, so you're getting experience and you have to 331 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: say the succession planning. But look at the depth of 332 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: talent underneath her and Franklin each of the brands. What 333 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: they have with seventy five brands at LVMH, they have 334 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: the experiential talent to move everyone up the line and 335 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: that's what they do. These have log convexity. These luxury 336 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: groups off China opening and the rest. You predicted this 337 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,959 Speaker 1: with your team. They're a moonshot right now. Can you 338 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: acquire shares this morning in these heritage luxury brands? You 339 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: can because the next development will be the reopening in 340 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: China and that China consumer. We've already heard from others. 341 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: I mean, look at what Neiman Marcus most recently said 342 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 1: about the strength of the holiday season, and you're seeing 343 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: the product innovation driving demand. So I think it's going 344 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: to be a good season. But let's keep in mind 345 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 1: we're still having consumers in all areas. With the volatility 346 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 1: of the market, there's been a step down in terms 347 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 1: of what the rate of growth is compared to last year. 348 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: And even so one more question on luxury, can you 349 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: overweight luxury now? Is the market is overweighting luxury. I 350 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: don't think the market's overweighting luxury yet. Really were the 351 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: moon shots were seeing in some of these things. I 352 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: think there's more opportunity when the holiday sales come in 353 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: because also the ability to drive strength out of China 354 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: that's going and luxury, particularly when you look at to China. 355 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: What's your single best buy right now, I mean it's LVI, 356 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 1: m H in the international, it's Tapestry in the domestic, 357 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: and the other one Ralph Lauren. Ralph Lauren has a 358 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: significant opportunity, So we'll go to that in a moment. 359 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: I mean, tap, this is killing me. You know how 360 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 1: much I hate this. This is Coach right, Yes, but 361 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 1: it's coach, it's Stewart Whiteman and Skate Spade and what 362 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 1: they've been able to do in resetting prices, updating the 363 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: brands Wesselman, they did the Tom Wesselman thing. Is that 364 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: where we're going. Where these brands come in and they 365 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: get famous celebrities and artists like they'll do a Dana 366 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: Telsey code or something like. I don't know about that. 367 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 1: It's collaborations, they matter. Collaborations drive demanding. You know why 368 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: they go viral on social media? Everyone sees them and 369 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: there you go sell through. Hat does social media help 370 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: Macy's move forward to the big boxes that Joe Felman 371 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: looks at, Yeah, it does. I mean we just had 372 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: a dinner with Macy's the other night. The personalization and 373 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: pricing science that's being allocated to their merchandising is really 374 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: helping them navigate a consumer environment that's definitely a bit 375 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: more challenging for the income level of the Macy's consumer. 376 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: How do they manage expenses? At that dinner that they 377 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 1: talk about the cross rationalization of suburban malls that are 378 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: off the mark, Well, not only that, but what about 379 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: the bed Bath and Beyond stores? That could come up 380 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 1: for play and there's a healthy demand. Even a marketplace 381 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: by Macy's or the off prices want those boxes. Those 382 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 1: are good boxes in great location for the same concept. 383 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: For Macy's, it's a from concept. It's a smaller marketplace 384 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: by Macy's concept that they put in there. But let's 385 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: see what develops with these bed bath and beyond location. 386 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: My recollection is tells the advisor group avoided the carnage 387 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,959 Speaker 1: of bed bathroom Beyond. Let's be constructive. Why did they 388 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: feel what's the best practice forward for retail not to 389 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: do a bed bathroom beyond. You need branded merchandise under 390 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: a halo, not just private label brands. And also you 391 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: need to be able to continue to innovate the offering. 392 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: And yet home goods out there taking share and you 393 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: didn't play up what made bed bathroom beyond so special? 394 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: Go in there and buy more than you originally expected, 395 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: got a lift to the market. The vixen a stick 396 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: here with Dana Telsey and tells the advisory I grew 397 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: up watching this carefully less curve and version than what 398 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: we saw off the CPI report. Dana, I've got to 399 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: wrap up with the guy who is iconic, Relf is ralf. 400 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: Does he have nepotism and play like Mr Arnault or 401 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: does he have a succession plan? He's a bit ancient, um. 402 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: I think overall, look at the team that you have 403 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: there now with Patrise Louve and Jane Nielsen CEO and CEO. 404 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: They're taking the brand to the next level and modernizing 405 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: it and it's showing up in the numbers and the 406 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: au are and consumers are reacting. One question, single best 407 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 1: buy right now for Telsea Advisory Group. Across all your team. 408 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: I mean, we have a bunch of names that cost in. 409 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 1: Joe likes Amazon, It's been a favorite name of his. 410 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: But also let's take a look at what some of 411 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: these off prices are doing. I mean the t j 412 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: X certainly were watching. I would say that you look 413 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: at Abercrombie and Fitch and it's exciting. Really, Ralph Lauren, 414 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: do you know that Michael McKee almost was a model 415 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 1: at Abercrombie fit years ago? Okay, well you know it's 416 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: a different today than it was then. Yeah, I would 417 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 1: have been helmet. What's what everyone knows this brand they're 418 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: going to resurrected again. How's the Abercrombie and fitsh gonna 419 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: do it. What the what's the pixie dust? The pixie 420 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: dust this time is the Abercrombie and Fitch brand has 421 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: aged up. They're getting it's better quality. Yep, it's not 422 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 1: the teens and Hollisters showing some improvement in their assortment 423 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 1: and getting the men's withsiness data. Telsey, thank you so much. 424 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: We're gonna age jump and continue with Keenan McKee. As 425 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 1: we age up, tell me about the ageless comments some 426 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: Hearkin and also Mike, what you see in this historic 427 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: inflation report? Well, Pat Harker is joining the crowd that 428 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 1: says basis points in the numbers today, justify that with 429 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 1: a one tenth drop on a month over month basis 430 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 1: in December pushes the headline number down to six and 431 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: a half percent. So on the path to where the 432 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: Fed wants it to be. Interesting thought here with Dana 433 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: here is I'm looking at apparel costs and everybody thought 434 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: maybe we'd see a discount on that, but we have 435 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: their up half a percent because men's clothes went up. 436 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 1: Almost all of women's clothes fell, men's and boys went up. 437 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,439 Speaker 1: So the interesting thing there company after a company I 438 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,199 Speaker 1: spoke to over the past three days. Men's is showing 439 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: improvement and all the retailers inventory levels are coming down 440 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: faster than expected, and that's going to be a good thing. 441 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 1: They told Tom he needs a new suit. The interesting 442 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:11,439 Speaker 1: things and woes. Yeah, men's and women over twenty years old, 443 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 1: that's what that's the problem. I look to wrap this up, Dane, 444 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: I'm so sorry. I've got to go to Mike here 445 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 1: as we drive forward into the Bloomberg that morning, Mike, 446 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: are we going to have the same inflation frenzy thirty 447 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: days from now? Sure? I mean, this is because it's 448 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: all about inflation for the FED, and the Fed's going 449 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: to keep going or at least hold until they are 450 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 1: convinced that inflation is going down to present and we 451 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: don't know what it's going to take to convince them. 452 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: John emails in from Manhattan. He says, asked Dane about 453 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 1: when Tiffany opens. That's like soon, right, like a couple 454 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 1: of months here should be. Second half of three brings 455 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: more traffic to the whole area. Has a restaurant in 456 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 1: the in the business, in the in the store too. 457 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: It's gonna make sexing prices of slumbers and that Tiffany, 458 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? The ron nose are nuts. They 459 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: walk around saying take the price up, It'll create demand. 460 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: That's good, Dana Telsea, thank you so much. Our economic 461 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: report from Telsea Advisory Group today. This is the Bloomberg 462 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from 463 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on 464 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for 465 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 466 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, 467 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm 468 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,719 Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg