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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Welcome to Breaking Points. I am back once

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Speaker 3: again in the Saga seat. You're gonna have to put

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Speaker 3: up with it for another day.

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Speaker 4: I'm so sorry, Crystal, but we'll make it worse. It's

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Speaker 4: a gift, really lots to get to you.

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Speaker 2: In the show this morning, we just got some Trump

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Speaker 2: financial disclosures and truly truly, truly world historic levels of

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Speaker 2: corruption billions of dollars that he and his family have

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Speaker 2: profited off of the presidency this time around. Break down

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Speaker 2: those numbers. Also, we got some a little bit of

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Speaker 2: insider trading, a little bit of catar force one, A lot,

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Speaker 2: lot lot going on there. And it's such a hard

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Speaker 2: story to cover because I feel like nearly every day

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Speaker 2: there is an incredibly consequential corruption story that we could

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Speaker 2: be covering. It's just so overwhelming that it's hard to

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Speaker 2: hard to adequately get into the.

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Speaker 4: Show with the frequency with which it truly deserves.

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Speaker 3: And there's a Trump quote we're going to talk about

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Speaker 3: in that block that explains why that is.

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Speaker 4: I think, yes, very good point.

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Speaker 2: We're also going to have a tree to PARSI join

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Speaker 2: us to break down these new comments from Vice President

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Speaker 2: jad Vance where he seems to maybe kind of give

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Speaker 2: up the game of what the Trump administration is really

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Speaker 2: up to with regard to this memo of understanding.

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Speaker 4: We also are taking a.

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Speaker 2: Look at the DSA coalition who are voting for these candidates.

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Speaker 2: What does it say about the future of the country,

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Speaker 2: the future of the party, What are the attacks. We've

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Speaker 2: got the numbers from Michael Lang to break down truth

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Speaker 2: from fiction. On that front, MTG and Tucker are thinking

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Speaker 2: about launching a third party effort.

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Speaker 4: Could that succeed? What would that look like?

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Speaker 2: We also have an update for you on several significant

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Speaker 2: members of Congress and their health status. Mitch McConnell continues

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Speaker 2: to be hospitalized after having been found unconscious, very scary situation.

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Speaker 2: Their representative Tom Keane is back after four months out.

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Speaker 2: He says, because of depression. So pretty interesting from a

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Speaker 2: guy who votes against paid time off. So we'll get

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Speaker 2: into all of those sorts of things.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and I just have to say Crystal before we

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Speaker 3: jump into the show. Today's bottom Bar for the listening audience,

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Speaker 3: it is much, I think cleaner than yesterday's bottom Bar,

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Speaker 3: which I believe involved mk ultra brarains.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday's bottom Bar was a little chaotic, but in a

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Speaker 2: good way. It was.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was our own sort of Operation Chaos, the

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Speaker 3: Operation Bottom Bar Chaos.

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Speaker 2: I always watched the show even when I'm not on

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Speaker 2: it because I learn a lot from my fellow co hosts.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I was like, okay, we've got an eclectic

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Speaker 2: mix of topics today.

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Speaker 3: When one Rojas came on, he looked at the bottom

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Speaker 3: Bar and he's like, what the hell is going on?

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Speaker 5: Really?

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Speaker 3: You?

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Speaker 2: Kyle and I watched the brain segment together, which was

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Speaker 2: really fascinating, Which were which people? Yes, and that's sweet,

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Speaker 2: and that's the sort of thing we do, which anyway,

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Speaker 2: people seem to really respond to a lot of people

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Speaker 2: watched it.

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Speaker 4: Ye you guys hooked them in with the like.

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Speaker 2: Medical establishment stunned or whatever. The headline was true, but

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Speaker 2: it was a truly fascinating segment. So I love I

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Speaker 2: love you, and Ryan tend to look like a little

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Speaker 2: bit further afield and I like that.

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Speaker 6: Right man, he brings the craziest sign in particular. Yes,

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Speaker 6: that knew Andrew Huberman, you heard it here. First.

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Speaker 3: We should also mention, by the way, if you want

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Speaker 3: newsletter versions of crazy Ryan segments ranking points dot com,

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Speaker 3: you go ahead subscribe.

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Speaker 2: Which you guys know you, I mean, you can't watch

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Speaker 2: that brain segment and then just leave it there. You

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Speaker 2: got to dig into the newsletter. You gotta find the Okay,

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Speaker 2: what's the study? What is he talking about? Let me

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Speaker 2: let me see a little bit more so, there's a

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Speaker 2: free version. There's a version premium subscribers you should already

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Speaker 2: be getting, by the way, if you aren't, what is.

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Speaker 4: It support at supercast.

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Speaker 2: Dot com if you're having any trouble at this point.

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Speaker 2: But so for the response has been really great and

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Speaker 2: you know, we're really proud and.

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Speaker 4: Excited to bring that to you.

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Speaker 2: So all right, let's go and jump into the details

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Speaker 2: here that we are learning with regard to the truly

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Speaker 2: truly extraordinary corruption to the tune of billions of dollars

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Speaker 2: in a single year to Trump and then even more

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Speaker 2: to his viille or.

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Speaker 4: And I'm going to fully get into that today.

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Speaker 2: In any case, Trump got asked about some of these

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Speaker 2: new disclosures. Let's go ahead and take a listen to

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Speaker 2: how he is responding to some of these new revelations.

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Speaker 5: I don't get involved in my personal We have funds

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Speaker 5: that run my money. Well, I've made a lot of

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Speaker 5: money before I became president, and they invest my money

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Speaker 5: and I don't talk to them. I don't even speak

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Speaker 5: to him. So I have many people I don't know

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Speaker 5: what they call it closed accounts or something you put

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Speaker 5: your money in. And that said, I don't talk to them.

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Speaker 5: They're big institutions and they run it. But yeah, I've

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Speaker 5: had a great career in business. I've had a great career.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if I've had a better career in

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Speaker 5: politics or business, but I had a great career in business.

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Speaker 5: And you know, you saw the cash, and you report

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Speaker 5: the different things. And what they do is we gave it.

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Speaker 5: I think it's called the blind account, but they basically

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Speaker 5: they take it. And I purposely I never speak to

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Speaker 5: any of the people that run the money, but there

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Speaker 5: are big institutions and they invest in whatever they invest.

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Speaker 7: You're profiting all the predator.

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Speaker 5: Well you know why I'm profiting because the stock market's

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Speaker 5: going up. Everybody's profiting. If you have a four oh

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Speaker 5: one K, how's your four oh one K done? It's

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Speaker 5: met up eighty five percent? Thank you, President Trump.

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Speaker 2: There's actually so much to get into just with that

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Speaker 2: one club Emily. First of all, for those of you

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Speaker 2: who are just listening standing in the background, or his

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Speaker 2: two sons who are deeply involved in all of the

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Speaker 2: business ventures, maybe not specifically the stock trading although who knows,

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Speaker 2: but the crypto ventures, which are where the vast bulk

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Speaker 2: of the wealth has been accumulated in Trump two point

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Speaker 2: zero that is run by his sons. He's I don't

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Speaker 2: talk to the money people. They're standing right there and

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Speaker 2: they're your own children. Okay, so that's number one. Number two,

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Speaker 2: he says, oh, well, my money went up because the

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Speaker 2: stock market went up because I'm such a great president.

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Speaker 4: Everybody's benefiting.

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Speaker 2: Well, again, the vast bulk of the wealth that has

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Speaker 2: been accumulated is billions of dollars from these crypto scams,

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Speaker 2: which anybody out there who has crypto holdings, you tell

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Speaker 2: me how the crypto market has been doing, in specifically,

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Speaker 2: how your investments if you dare to invest in like

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Speaker 2: the Trump coin, how they did. You know, there's a breakdown.

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Speaker 2: We're going to show you in a moment. They made

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Speaker 2: two point three billion dollars and that all came on

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Speaker 2: the other side with two point three billion dollars of

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Speaker 2: losses many of times. You know, many of the people

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Speaker 2: who are suffering the most are his fans who were

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Speaker 2: tricked into investing in this thing and have lost basically everything.

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Speaker 2: So you know, this is not about how the stock

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Speaker 2: market went up, so I just happened to benefit. And

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Speaker 2: then even on the stock market piece, we're going to

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Speaker 2: show you thousands, thousands of trades that were made and

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Speaker 2: some of them timed in a very specific way, seemingly

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Speaker 2: seemingly coordinated with actions that were taken directly either by

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Speaker 2: him or by his administration.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 3: Also, Trump famously reads several papers front to back every

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Speaker 3: single morning, like physical papers. He gets them printed out

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Speaker 3: New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and New

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Speaker 3: York Post, of course, And so for him to say

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Speaker 3: that he's not aware of how these decisions are being made,

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Speaker 3: let's just hypothetically, we'll give him the benefit of the

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Speaker 3: doubt and say he's not talking to Don and Eric

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Speaker 3: about World Liberty Financial. We remember, by the way that

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Speaker 3: was pasted on the octagon during the UFC fight, the

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Speaker 3: World Liberty Financial branding was on it.

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Speaker 6: But let's just you give him the benefit of the

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Speaker 6: doubt on that one.

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Speaker 3: He is damn well aware of what's happening with World

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Speaker 3: Liberty Financial, with the investments that his son in law

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Speaker 3: Jared Kushner has even just a fits through the media,

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Speaker 3: because once again, we know he watches Fox News, and

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Speaker 3: we know Fox News doesn't do much coverage of this,

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Speaker 3: but he actually does read these papers front to back

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Speaker 3: every single morning. This is like a well known fact

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Speaker 3: reported about how he spends the early hours of his day.

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Speaker 3: And so for him to say that he just knows nothing,

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Speaker 3: that none of this would be in his head while

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Speaker 3: he is making governing decisions is flatly ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: Oh, of course, and so A two we can put

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Speaker 2: this up. I think he gave a much more honest

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Speaker 2: answer back in January to the New York Times when

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Speaker 2: they asked him why, having told his family not to

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Speaker 2: make new business deals in foreign countries during his first

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Speaker 2: term as president, he was permitting them to do so now,

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Speaker 2: He said, I found out nobody cared, I'm allowed to.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is you know, specifically about Kushner

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Speaker 2: at all making all of these foreign business deals. But

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Speaker 2: I think this is the true sentiment, is that he

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Speaker 2: has embraced with regard to his own profiteering off of

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Speaker 2: the presidency and you know, just incredibly corrupt dealings. The

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Speaker 2: crypto piece is really the locus of the bulk of

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Speaker 2: the wealth.

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Speaker 4: That has come in.

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Speaker 2: And I mean this is the top use case at

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Speaker 2: this point for cryptocurrencies at large.

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Speaker 4: Is like being able to.

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Speaker 2: Funnel corrupt to facilitate corruption, specifically for the president of

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Speaker 2: the United States and his family. Also further to the

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Speaker 2: point of whether or not, oh, he's involved in any

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Speaker 2: of these deals, and the New York Times had reporting

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Speaker 2: A eight actually put this up on the screen about

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Speaker 2: how he pushed specifically to grant access to this tungsten

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Speaker 2: mine in Kazakhstan, that his sons are a part of

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Speaker 2: the company that's going to be able to exploit the

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Speaker 2: mining in this region.

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Speaker 4: So he directly pushed for that.

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Speaker 2: So just so there's no doubt whatsoever that he is

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Speaker 2: directly involved in these deals that he is talking to,

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Speaker 2: the deals, that he is pushing things on foreign countries

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Speaker 2: to benefit him and his sons directly. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 2: and put a three up on the screen here. These

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Speaker 2: are some of the details that came out in this

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Speaker 2: financial disclosure. Trump pulled in at least two billion dollars

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Speaker 2: after returning to the White House. The release of a

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Speaker 2: mandatory financial disclosure for twenty twenty five shows the Trump

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Speaker 2: families holdings, particularly the president's crypto businesses, were stunningly lucrative.

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Speaker 2: All told, they say the president pulled in at least

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Speaker 2: two point two billion dollars, a figure that includes other

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Speaker 2: parts of his vast holdings such as real estate assets.

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Speaker 4: That compares to.

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Speaker 2: A minimum of six hundred twenty two million dollars his

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Speaker 2: enterprises pulled in for all of twenty twenty four before

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Speaker 2: he returned to the presidency. So we went from to

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Speaker 2: six hundred twenty two million in twenty twenty four, still

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Speaker 2: a lot of money to at least two point two

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Speaker 2: billion dollars since he returned to the presidency.

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Speaker 4: They say.

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Speaker 2: One of his biggest hauls in twenty twenty five came

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Speaker 2: when an investment firm tied to the United Arab Emirates

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Speaker 2: bought nearly half of the Trump family's main crypto company,

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Speaker 2: World Liberty Financial, transaction that blurred the line between foreign

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Speaker 2: policy and private enterprise.

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Speaker 4: He had to put it mildly.

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Speaker 2: He also collected hundreds of millions of dollars from sale

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Speaker 2: of his Trump meme coin and World Liberty sale of

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Speaker 2: its own digital tokens. The results detailed mister Trump's mandatory disclosures,

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Speaker 2: we at least Tuesday pulled back the kurt on his

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Speaker 2: business operations. His crypto ventures, the show report shows, are

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Speaker 2: now some of his most lucrative enterprises. Remarkable turnabout for

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Speaker 2: a man who wants lammed crypto as a haven for

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Speaker 2: drug dealers and scammers.

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Speaker 4: He realized, oh, I could be one.

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Speaker 6: Of those scammers.

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Speaker 4: Why shouldn't I.

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Speaker 2: Be involved in the scamming that's going on in crypto

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Speaker 2: and the World Liberty Financial transaction that happened here with

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Speaker 2: the UAE we cover at the time. Emily, right after that,

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Speaker 2: guess what, he's Oh, you know what, we can export

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Speaker 2: some of these highly.

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Speaker 4: Advanced ships that you're looking for.

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Speaker 2: He did something that they wanted, the UAE wanted. Shortly after,

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Speaker 2: this massive cash windfall comes to him through his cryptocurrency.

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Speaker 3: Well, they're also this is another one that gets lost

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Speaker 3: and I'm trying to look it up exactly what it is.

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Speaker 3: But the Trump organization is currently working on a big

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Speaker 3: development project in Doha, so it's not even just that

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Speaker 3: it's all tied together. And don't tell me that Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump doesn't know his sons are working on a development

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Speaker 3: project in Doha.

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Speaker 6: It's obviously ridiculous to say that that's not the case.

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Speaker 6: He has no knowledge of it.

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Speaker 3: And this is not I forget who said this the

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Speaker 3: other day, but this is I wish I could give

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Speaker 3: them credit for this exact quote.

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Speaker 6: But this is like real money.

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Speaker 3: People were saying, like, oh, with Hunter Biden, which we

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Speaker 3: covered here by the way, and I cared about a lot,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, we had Ken vogelon we talked about all

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Speaker 3: of this stuff. At the time, it was ridiculous. This

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Speaker 3: is billions. This is billions of dollars, and it is

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Speaker 3: really directly tied back into Yes, there are still I

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Speaker 3: think there are still very serious questions about Barisma and

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Speaker 3: Carlos Slim and all these deals that were happening with

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Speaker 3: the Bidens. This is like literally peace deals that are

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Speaker 3: being made in the Middle East by people who are

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Speaker 3: invested with the countries, their companies are invested with the

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Speaker 3: countries that are at the center of the negotiations.

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Speaker 6: There's never really been anything quite like this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a complete smash and grab and a sale

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Speaker 2: of US foreign policy. I mean that's genuinely. You can't

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Speaker 2: look at the picture and think of it otherwise. Glad

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Speaker 2: you brought up Hunter Biden. I had Claude make a

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Speaker 2: little chart to help us visualize just the dollar.

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Speaker 4: Amount differences that we're talking about.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 4: Put a ten up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: So on the one side, here, that little tiny sliver

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Speaker 2: that you can't even see, Okay, those are the reported

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Speaker 2: Hunter Biden earnings from Barisma over five years. Okay, you

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Speaker 2: can almost see it. It's about five million dollars. You

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Speaker 2: can almost see it there. That was his board salary

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Speaker 2: from twenty fourteen to twenty nineteen, over five years time. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Trump on the right, this is just from one part

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Speaker 2: of his crypto earnings from one year one point four

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Speaker 2: billion dollars roughly. That was just in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: and Claude gave us this little helpful disclosure here. Note

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Speaker 2: these are not the same Apple to Apple comparison. Hunter's

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Speaker 2: figure is personal board salary over five years per the

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Speaker 2: DOJ tax and diamond Trump is one year of business

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Speaker 2: venture income twenty twenty five Federal Financial Disclosure Writer's calculation.

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Speaker 2: Trump is about two hundred and eighty times larger. Both

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Speaker 2: figures exclude value that flowed through intermediary entity. So just

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Speaker 2: to give people a sense of proportion here of what

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Speaker 2: we are talking about. Okay, you can barely see the

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Speaker 2: Hunter Biden piece, and we covered it only to your point, extensively, extensively.

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Speaker 2: And Ryan had like an encyclopedic knowledge of all of

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Speaker 2: the Biden like corrupt using the name, you know, his brother,

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Speaker 2: all that stuff extensively. We covered it here. There was

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Speaker 2: a lot of right wing concern about the Biden family profiteering.

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Speaker 2: I think that's fine, I think that's fair. That's why

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Speaker 2: we covered it. You cannot even wrap your head around

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Speaker 2: how much more profound, how much larger, and how much

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Speaker 2: more impactful in terms of the way that our government

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Speaker 2: and our country is behaving.

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Speaker 4: In the world.

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Speaker 2: It is all tied into is Trump profiting or his

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Speaker 2: son's profiting? Is Kushner profiting? Is wit Cough profiting? Are

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Speaker 2: his kids profiting? I mean again, we are narrowly focused

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Speaker 2: here directly on Trump today, but the circle of graft

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Speaker 2: and corruption in this government, it appears to be that

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Speaker 2: their primary focus and the lens through which they filter

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Speaker 2: their decision making is how can I get a cut,

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Speaker 2: how can I personally enrich myself or my family off

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Speaker 2: of the operations of the United States federal government.

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Speaker 4: And there's always been corruption.

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Speaker 2: We have never seen anything in our history, and I

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Speaker 2: would dare to say, you know, in world in terms

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Speaker 2: of the dollar amounts in world history, you would be

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Speaker 2: hard pressed to find larger dollar sums flowing.

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Speaker 4: To the head of state and his family directly.

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Speaker 3: Well, if we put the chart pack up on the screen,

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Speaker 3: just briefly, I want to say, if you put together

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Speaker 3: all of the different Hunter Biden deals that we learned

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Speaker 3: about from the laptop and leaks and the like, it

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Speaker 3: would probably not even get to that two hundred million

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Speaker 3: dollar mark, which is the first part of the chart

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Speaker 3: for the listening audience. So we're looking at one point

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Speaker 3: four billion. But if this is just this is barisma.

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Speaker 3: But if you put together like Romania, Mexico, all of

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Speaker 3: these other countries that Hunter Biden was trying to cut

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Speaker 3: deals with, which by the way, we're involving influence pedaling,

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Speaker 3: where he was basically offering access and so was his

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Speaker 3: hire family and Frank Biden, James Biden, Valerie Biden Owen,

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Speaker 3: that was happening, but the scale would still be and

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Speaker 3: you could put it all together. It would be tough

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Speaker 3: because they were doing so many random deals, but the

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Speaker 3: scale would still be wildly disproportionate between the Trump crypto

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Speaker 3: grift and the Biden grift overall. And in fact, the

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Speaker 3: crypto grift isn't it's just the tip of the iceberg,

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Speaker 3: because they're also doing all these investment deals and they

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Speaker 3: also involved Steve Whitcough, Howard Lutnick, and others. So the

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Speaker 3: influence peddling does I think a real moral injury to

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Speaker 3: the country. There's a some kernel of truth in what

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Speaker 3: Trump says when he claims nobody cares, he learned that

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Speaker 3: nobody cared. I do think some of that comes from

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Speaker 3: much of the like mainstream quote unquote mainstream media downplaying

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Speaker 3: some of the Biden stuff.

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Speaker 6: We're just not covering it as a.

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Speaker 4: Now I don't buy that.

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Speaker 6: Let's do it. Let's do it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, at a certain point, you just have

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Speaker 2: to say that his graft is so overwhelming that, first

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Speaker 2: of all, it makes it very difficult to focus on it.

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Speaker 2: And that is part of their strategy with this administration overall,

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Speaker 2: was you know, at the beginning, we're going to have

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Speaker 2: all of these executive orders and do all of these

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Speaker 2: outrageous things, but they're going to be so much and

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Speaker 2: so insane that you can't keep track of it.

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Speaker 4: It's the same thing with the graft. So look, you know,

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Speaker 4: we can talk about.

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Speaker 2: Mainstream media failures all day long, but the bottom line

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Speaker 2: is they have really given Trump a lot kind of

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Speaker 2: a pass. They grade him on a curve in a

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Speaker 2: lot of regards. There was way more focus on hunters

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Speaker 2: paintings and Hunters this and Hunters that than there are

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Speaker 2: on these corrupt dealings. It's just sort of accepted as

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Speaker 2: this is like, this is just how he operates and

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Speaker 2: what he does. So, you know, I don't I think

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Speaker 2: they're I don't think that they are primarily the I

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Speaker 2: don't think the fact that they let the Bidens off

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Speaker 2: the hook has anything to do with, you know, what

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Speaker 2: we see in the coverage today. I think that the

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Speaker 2: Trump Trump realized he can get away with it because

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Speaker 2: he can just do so much and you know, and

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Speaker 2: not just here, create so much controversy throughout the entire

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Speaker 2: country and the entire globe, and start wars and kidnap

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Speaker 2: foreign leaders that people aren't going to be able to

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Speaker 2: focus on this. And if you wanted to point anywhere

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Speaker 2: to blame, you have the Supreme Court saying and you

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Speaker 2: can do what you want. There's going to be no

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be no consequences.

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Speaker 4: So it's off to the races.

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Speaker 3: Well, and I think the Biden stuff, I mean these

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Speaker 3: are to be clear, I think they're completely on different levels.

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Speaker 3: I think the Biden stuff was also so spread out

402
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Speaker 3: and scattered that it was hard for anybody to focus.

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Speaker 6: On in LATO.

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Speaker 2: It's also be let's also be clear, like we're talking

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Speaker 2: about Hunter Biden, okay.

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Speaker 6: And bid Joe Biden.

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Speaker 4: The only thing we have on him is like ten

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Speaker 4: percent of the big guy.

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Speaker 2: That's the most that we ever got on any direct

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden corruption. He didn't even he didn't even own

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Speaker 2: stocks as president of the United States. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it's also very different when you're talking about Trump himself

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Speaker 2: versus you know, Hunter and Bearisma and these sort of

414
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 2: like things that are tangential. They're related, and obviously I

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Speaker 2: covered it now at this point, I honestly regret covering

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Speaker 2: it as much as I did because it is of

417
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Speaker 2: such a.

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Speaker 4: Different scale and proportion.

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Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi's stock training got nothing on what Trump has

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Speaker 2: been up to.

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Speaker 3: Well, there was melding of the Biden finances in like

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Speaker 3: vague ways, but you're completely correct.

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Speaker 6: I think that's absolutely true.

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Speaker 3: What I was saying about Trump's point on this kernel

425
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Speaker 3: of truth being that he learns nobody cares. I think

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Speaker 3: what happened is that institutional trust in the country just

427
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Speaker 3: completely cratered, and so people put all of this beside

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Speaker 3: them now and they're like, yeah, you guys are all garbage.

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Speaker 3: And Trump has this unique insight into the American public

430
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Speaker 3: realizing that politicians are no longer seen in it. There's

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Speaker 3: no veneer of moral benefit of the doubt that people

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Speaker 3: assigned to their politicians and ascribed to politicians anymore. And

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Speaker 3: so he's picked up on that and he realizes that, Nope,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 6: There is no.

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Speaker 3: Longer this pretense that our politicians are great human beings,

437
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Speaker 3: and so many politicians still cling to that, this idea

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Speaker 3: that like, well, I'm at an elected office, like I

439
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,719
Speaker 3: have the dignity of the office attached to me, How

440
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 3: dare you question me on X, Y or Z. And

441
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Speaker 3: Trump's like, nobody cares about that. So I'm going to

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Speaker 3: do whatever the hell I want to do because it's

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six and people's expectations are in the basement.

444
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly, although I will say I think that there

445
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 2: is a rising stench around this IIH rising sense that

446
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 2: this is this is of a different nature and kind,

447
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: and the size and scope of it is so different

448
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: from what we've seen in the past. And I've even

449
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 2: seen some sort of more like right wing people being like, oh,

450
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 2: if you want to have socialists sweep the entire country, yep,

451
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 2: this financial disclosure is how you're going to help to

452
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 2: make that happen.

453
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 6: Ye, the last Night thing.

454
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 3: It's exactly how that happens. I mean, And you could

455
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 3: go back to the first Gilded Age because we're obviously

456
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,239
Speaker 3: in the second Gilded Age now and see certain like

457
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 3: capitalists panicking about exactly that. What did Lenin say, the

458
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 3: capitalists would give us the rope to hang them with,

459
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 3: Like that's happening right now. How could you possibly create

460
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: less trust in the financial system? Milton Friedman actually talked

461
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 3: about this too, than doing conducting yourself like this, Yes,

462
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 3: you could not possibly do it. By the way, World

463
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 3: Liberty Financial has a stable coin. Donald Trump is the

464
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 3: President of the United States, Howard Lutnik is the Commerce Secretary.

465
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 6: Scott Best is a tresurey secretary.

466
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: It's in and of itself, like it's an inherent level

467
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 3: of corruption that is egregious.

468
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 6: There's nothing like it.

469
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: Put a four up on the screen. Reuter's track down

470
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 2: some of the specifics regarding the two point three billion

471
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 2: dollars that Trump threw out all of his crypto ventures

472
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,640
Speaker 2: appears to have earned. This was before the financial disclosions

473
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: came out. But this really gave a honestly heartbreaking look

474
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: at some of the people who were huge Trump fans

475
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,360
Speaker 2: who invested like way.

476
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: More of their money.

477
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: Well, you should have given him a single dollar, but

478
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 2: really over extended themselves because they believed in him. Oh well,

479
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: Trump has his name on this shit coin, it can't

480
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 2: possibly be a scam.

481
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 4: And it was.

482
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: It was a rug pull, it was a pump and dump,

483
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 2: and now they're left with holdings that are basically completely

484
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: you know, I've gone virtually to zero.

485
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 4: And one of the ways that you can.

486
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 2: Know something as a scam is basically like, okay, is

487
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: there someone who's going to profit off of this regardless

488
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: of weather as.

489
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,199
Speaker 4: Well or not, and that someone is Trump.

490
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 2: We can put the We've got a chart from a

491
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 2: five that we can put up on the screen that

492
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 2: shows you that as Trump and his family were gaining

493
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 2: here from these various crypto ventures. And this was put

494
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 2: out by Steve ratten compiled and put out by Steve Rattner,

495
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 2: by the way, based on the Reuter's numbers from that

496
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 2: report where it's just showing you so with World Liberty

497
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: Financial he has profited one point one billion dollars he

498
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 2: and his family, the investors have lost six hundred and

499
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 2: seventy four million on the meme coin, he has profited

500
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: six hundred and sixteen million. The investors, many of them

501
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 2: again were sort of rank and file Trump supporters, have

502
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 2: lost seven hundred and eleven million on this al five

503
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 2: sigma thing, which I didn't even know about. This one,

504
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: they profited five hundred and thirty eight million dollars. Investors

505
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 2: lost six hundred and seventy five million. And then on

506
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: American Bitcoin they haven't haven't gotten too much down of

507
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: this one, only a mirror Emily nineteen million investor losses

508
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 2: two hundred and sixteen million dollars. So these were all

509
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: set up so that no matter what happens, no matter

510
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,479
Speaker 2: how much of the American people's money got scammed and

511
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 2: flittered away, that it would all flow into his pockets.

512
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: Is truly truly astonishing to see this. And the other

513
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 2: thing that was really sad in this article is there

514
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: were some of these people who were like, I am

515
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: an idiot, I got scammed. I can't believe, like it's

516
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 2: so different than I thought. And there were some people

517
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 2: who were like, I don't blame him that I lost

518
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: my entire life savings investing in his shit coin, and

519
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 2: somehow managed to still be like I think it's because

520
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 2: the Democrats are like shorting it, and so they have

521
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 2: they're the reason that it collapsed.

522
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 3: The reflecting pool, the metaphor of the reflecting pool, it's

523
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: it's not working because Democrats are slashing it with knives.

524
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, that was the you know in their head,

525
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: Oh it can be his fault. It has the Democrats

526
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 2: have to have on this somehow, and so they invented

527
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 2: these wild theories of what was going on and why

528
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 2: this thing went to zero.

529
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: And that also is like you can you can follow

530
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: the logic of a person who doesn't trust anyone anymore

531
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 3: coming to a conclusion like that, Like, obviously I think

532
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: it's completely wrong, but I understand with this is that

533
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 3: it gets back to institutional trust. And to your point

534
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: about the politics of Trump's corruption, I don't think Republicans

535
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: have any idea what's waiting for them on the other

536
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 3: side of these midterms. I think they're starting to see

537
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: it creep into the campaigns as general elections get closer

538
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: and closer and the primaries are are settled.

539
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 6: Because in the.

540
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 3: First Trump administration, yes there was grift. There was there

541
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 3: was Kushner grift, no question about it. There was Trump

542
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 3: organization grift, no question about it. The hotel was here

543
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 3: in the middle of the city, like two blocks away

544
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: from the White House. I saw it, but it was

545
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 3: not like what's happening now, obviously, And also before the pandemic,

546
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: the Trump economy was better and we were not in

547
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,479
Speaker 3: a hot war like well, I guess they would say

548
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 3: we're technically not in a hot war, but I think

549
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 3: we all know the answers to that question. We were

550
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 3: in clearly a hot conflot bombing around for weeks and

551
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 3: gas prices were going through the roof, and so I

552
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 3: don't think they're prepared for this scale of Trump corruption

553
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: in a bad economy, because I think when you're in

554
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: a bad economy, Trump's point about whether or not people

555
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 3: care changes, people do care when the economy is really bad,

556
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: and you claim to be a populist champion.

557
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: And so it's just so blatant, you know, it's very shameless. Yeah.

558
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: Well, and the other thing I would say is I'm

559
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 2: not going to play this club because the audio is

560
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: kind of shitty and it looks like it's from nineteen

561
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: ninety six. But you know, to your point about, okay,

562
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: what are the meta reasons that this.

563
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 4: Is allowed to persist, et cetera.

564
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 2: Is Republicans they never you know, Republicans in Congress never cared.

565
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 2: They never. They're they're happy to you know how many

566
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: hearings we have about Biden and pull up whatever. But

567
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 2: when it comes to Trump, when they get asked about it, go, oh,

568
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: I didn't see that report. I didn't read about that. Well,

569
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 2: I don't do those sorts of things, but I don't know.

570
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 2: I'll have to get back to you with regard to Trump, like,

571
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: there's just zero, zero moral accountability when it comes to

572
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 2: Trump for the Republican Party, and that's the place where

573
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: it really matters, because Trump doesn't care if some you know,

574
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 2: some lib like me is mad about his corruption, it

575
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 2: doesn't matter to him. What would matter is if you

576
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: had some you know, some pushback from within his own

577
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 2: side that would be consequential, that would make him much

578
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: more upset, that would act as much more of an

579
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 2: effective check potentially on what he's doing here. But because

580
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 2: so much has been you know, they didn't say a

581
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: word about it in the first administration, where there was

582
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,479
Speaker 2: truly at that time, eye popping levels of corruption and

583
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 2: you know, which was astonishing. This dwarfs that by orders

584
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: of magnitude, and not on one of them has a

585
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: thing to say about it. So I think that's an

586
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 2: important dynamic here too, is just the total lack of

587
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: any sort of moral standards or standards with regard to

588
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 2: corruption or consistency on the issue coming from his own side.

589
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 3: Well, I wonder actually if it matters at all to

590
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 3: him whether Republicans turn on this particular issue, which, to

591
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 3: be clear, I don't think they will. But you know,

592
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 3: Democrats can subpoena and there will be damaging things that

593
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: come out of subpoenas if they take back the House

594
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 3: and the Senate, and there will probably be impeachment proceedings

595
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 3: and the like, and subpoenas can do. Yeah, that can

596
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: do real damage. It can expose more of the problem.

597
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 3: It can expose them potentially to liability. He'll do whatever,

598
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 3: pardon preemptive pardons at the end of his term probably

599
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 3: as well. But all that is to say, I don't

600
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: To me, it almost looks like a race to the

601
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 3: end of the administration because he's not going to be

602
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 3: on the ballot again, So make as much money as

603
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: you can in the next few years. Doesn't really matter

604
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 3: for Republicans start to turn on him at this point. Yeah,

605
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 3: just rake it all in as quickly as possible.

606
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 5: Yeah.

607
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 2: I mean there's a tie in here psychologically with like

608
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: the way that the tech oligarchs behave too. And I

609
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 2: don't think anyone has done a better job of describing

610
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: this dynamic than Naomi Klein, who coined it and times fascism,

611
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:04,360
Speaker 2: where it's basically like they have these apocalyptic views of

612
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: where human civilization is going. Partly they have those apocalyptic

613
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: views because they are the ones that, between the climate

614
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 2: crisis but specifically through AI development, are trying to push

615
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 2: us over some sort of a cliff here, and so

616
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: it is just like a smash and grab. It's like

617
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 2: we what resources can we suck up immediately? What sort

618
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 2: of cash can we you know, accumulate, What kind of

619
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: wealth can we hoard so that when things go really

620
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 2: bad that we have enough money and power to be

621
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: able to protect ourselves from the fallout from In many times,

622
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: they're in many ways their own actions, and so I

623
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 2: think that is part of the mentality here too, is

624
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 2: like and you know Trump comes in also with all

625
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: of this, like, oh, they tried to throw me in prison,

626
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: and they failed. And you know, now I'm just going

627
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: to do whatever the hell I want to do, and

628
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: there's going to be no check and no limit on me,

629
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: and you know and what I'm up to.

630
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 4: And so I think that comes.

631
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,959
Speaker 3: Through because you can report it as much you want.

632
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: You could supeena me as much as you want. A.

633
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: I can pardon, but B this is the Trump mentality. B.

634
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: The media could cover this every day. It could be

635
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 3: the headline every single day. And because people don't have

636
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 3: trust in the media anymore, like it doesn't matter. It's

637
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: not like a big headline story in New York Times

638
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: every day would have taken down the Clintons, or would

639
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: have taken down maybe like George W.

640
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 6: Bush of his financial intaglements.

641
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: It was a different time in the country, that was

642
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: a different level of institutional trust. But now that's all

643
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: burned up. So here I am. I'm doing whatever I

644
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: want to do.

645
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, he absolutely is. So let's do a couple

646
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: more year. We've got a nine the Qatar Force one,

647
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: the plane that was gifted to him to him, by

648
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: the way, not to the government, to Trump himself, that

649
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 2: has been rehapped into the new Air Force one.

650
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 6: To his library. Right, it's a donation to the library.

651
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right exactly, So he gets to maintain control

652
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: over it in perpetuity. I'm sure that you know, has

653
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 2: no impact on his decision making whatsoever. Anyway, that has

654
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: been retro fitted using taxpayer dollars. By the way, and

655
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 2: that is now is now I guess, taking its maiden voyage,

656
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: we can put a eleven up on the screen. With

657
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: regard to the stock trading, twenty two thousand stock transactions

658
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: made in twenty twenty five, according to a Financial Times analysis,

659
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: is immediate predecessor. Joe Biden made thirteen transactions over four years.

660
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: In Trump's first term. The whole first term he made

661
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: five hundred and seventeen, which was I guess a significant amount,

662
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: but nowhere near twenty two thousand in a single year.

663
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: And this year already we've seen six thousand, one hundred.

664
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: In addition, put a six up on the screen. So

665
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: what is what's he doing in those in those stock trades?

666
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: You know, what's what? To what purpose? What sort of

667
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: companies is he investing in?

668
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 6: Here?

669
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: Well, his latest financial disclosures revealing invested about five hundred

670
00:30:55,200 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 2: thousand dollars in Abbot Laboratories. Abbot Laboratories is one of

671
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 2: the primary baby formula manufacturers in the country, responsible for

672
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 2: a large portion of the market. You guys will probably

673
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 2: remember when there was you know, a lot of problems

674
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 2: with the formula coming from Habit Laboratories. They had to

675
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: shut some of their manufacturing down. It created a baby

676
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: formula shortage that was a major major issue. The Justice

677
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 2: Department had spent years investigating them over how this is

678
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: for more perfect union. They managed a baby formula facility

679
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 2: where potentially deadly bacteria was discovered and suspected of causing

680
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 2: infant deaths. Well, guess what just after Trump invested in

681
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 2: Abbott Laboratories. Two months later, the Trump DOJ dropped that investigation.

682
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: And you know, and you would think Trump would be

683
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: in a position to profit off of that sin, see

684
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: how it had significant holdings in their stock. This is

685
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 2: one of many examples that have been tracked of the

686
00:31:54,640 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: type of corrupt dealings, potentially potential insider trading potentially that

687
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 2: was going on here with these twenty two thousand stock

688
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 2: Transactionally put a twelve up on the screen that he

689
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: also invested in Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Meta as

690
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: much as five million dollars each in those in July

691
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, and on that same day that

692
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 2: he invested in each of these, he unveiled his AI

693
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: action Plan which could help each of those companies. Prices

694
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: for most of those stocks have since increased, so just

695
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: on every level, in every way. And these are just

696
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: the ones Emily two that people can kind of like

697
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 2: trackwah and follow. So much of this is completely opaque

698
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 2: that we have no idea, but we see all of

699
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: this very likely insider trading that's happening, and it could

700
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: easily be the president himself, his sons, his family, et cetera.

701
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 2: We just we don't know. But as we covered, as

702
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: we covered last time on Tuesday, if the government was

703
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,239
Speaker 2: interested in some of these blatant insider trading issues, they

704
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 2: could investigate, but they don't, which does raise some questions

705
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: over why are they uninterested in investigating those sorts of things.

706
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: Well, I hope people also took a look yesterday and

707
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: you can read about this on Matt Stoller's newsletter Big

708
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: about the Justice Apartment's settlement with these big egg companies

709
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 3: where they're getting like three million dollar fines for naked

710
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 3: naked corruption. They have them dead to rights in these

711
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 3: transcripts of like phone calls and emails where you see

712
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: them colluding to drive up bag prices which caused so

713
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: much financial stress for average American families for a really

714
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,479
Speaker 3: long time. You can see on a chart that Stolar

715
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 3: posted exactly when the Justice Department investigation is announced, the

716
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 3: prices start to go down. That's not even the biggest

717
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,719
Speaker 3: piece of evidence, so people should check that out as well.

718
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 3: The Trump Justice Department settled with them. They didn't have

719
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: to admit they did anything wrong, which obviously prevents certain

720
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: future legal actions. And it's a great deal for them

721
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 3: because they have to donate eggs and pay like three

722
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 3: million dollar fines after they raked in tons and tons

723
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 3: of money. This isn't directly tied back to like Trump's investments.

724
00:33:59,280 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 8: It may be.

725
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 3: We don't know yet because we can't necessarily trace all

726
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 3: of it. But this is just I'm a pessimist. If

727
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 3: there is an optimistic take, it's that he's pushing it

728
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 3: to such an extreme that at some point it's not

729
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: like Pelosi's right, It's not just like who else was

730
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 3: trading like Marjorie Taylor Green was trading while she was

731
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 3: in office, Like, it's not like that. It's something on

732
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 3: such a different scale that maybe what comes after Trump

733
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 3: is finally you get a ban on congressional stock trading,

734
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 3: Finally you get some prohibitions on politicians doing this because

735
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: you can't possibly extricate their professional knowledge from what they're

736
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: doing with these track or with these investments.

737
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 6: You can't do it.

738
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 3: So if there is an optimistic case to be made,

739
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: I'm not optimistic about the optimistic case, but if there

740
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 3: is one, this has been pushed to such a logical extreme.

741
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 3: The economy is bad, there's a crypto bubble. Very clearly,

742
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 3: there's a crypto bubble that could pop, and what can

743
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: come after that is really dangerous. It could be potentially violent.

744
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 3: Not to be a fear mongerer, but I think we

745
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 3: all understand how these cycles work and how they worked

746
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 3: in the twentieth century.

747
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 6: So we'll see.

748
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 3: But if you want to feel hopeful, maybe that's the

749
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: dose of optimism.

750
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 2: Last two things that I wanted to highlight here, one

751
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,479
Speaker 2: in particular, so in the financial disclosure, it also shows

752
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: him receiving eighty six point five million dollars from settlements

753
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: in five separate lawsuits against ABC, CBS, YouTube, Meta, and X.

754
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: You know, eighty six point five million is I guess,

755
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: pennies when you compare it to the billions he's.

756
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 4: Getting from Crypto.

757
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: But I think it shows you the way that he

758
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 2: is systematically profiting off of every aspect of his presidency

759
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 2: that he possibly can, including his ability to weaponize the

760
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: federal government in order to bully companies into submission. All

761
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 2: or most of these cases would have been, I mean

762
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 2: laughable on their face. Many Oh, you edited an interview

763
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 2: in a way that I didn't like. But all of

764
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 2: these companies decided to settle because they were few full

765
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: of the consequences of continuing to push forward in these lawsuits.

766
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: So they just decided easier and better to effectively pay

767
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: off the president and not have to worry about it.

768
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 2: So you can see that as well in terms of

769
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: the way that he's operated and you know, his personalized

770
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 2: view of the presidency, the way that he uses the

771
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: whole of government to advance not the interest of the

772
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 2: country but the interest of himself, the interest of his

773
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 2: ability to accumulate power, and certainly his ability to accumulate wealth.

774
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 2: And then the last one that I'll mention too, that

775
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 2: I didn't even pull the element for because there's just

776
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: so much here again that it's kind of overwhelming. There's

777
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: also like the pardon granting operation is deeply corrupt, and

778
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 2: one insider said, yeah, it's well known in my industry

779
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: that for two million dollars you can have a pardon.

780
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: We talked to Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman and they

781
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 2: said that he's He's basically said, look, anyone who gets

782
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 2: within you know, however many feed of the Oval Office,

783
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: I'm going to give him a pardon. There was a

784
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: conversation about for the celebration of America's two undred and

785
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: fiftieth anniversary that they were going to maybe release like

786
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: a whole boatload of pardons.

787
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 4: Move forward with a bunch of pardons.

788
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 2: And if you look again at the track record here,

789
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 2: it's like who donated to him, who has business dealings

790
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 2: with his family, who gave the right person millions of dollars, etc.

791
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 2: And so it speaks both to the corruption and also

792
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 2: to the level of impunity that.

793
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 4: They act with because he abuses the.

794
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 2: Pardon power to just an extraordinary extent that we again

795
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 2: have never seen before. Not that the pardon power has

796
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 2: never been abused before, it certainly has been by most

797
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 2: of not all presidents, but the level that he's taken

798
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 2: to means that it's not just him, it's everybody around

799
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 2: him who feels they can act with impunity because they know,

800
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, Trump's going to pardon me.

801
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 2: So there's not going to be any real accountability for

802
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 2: anything that I do that is criminal here.

803
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that's just a great point to

804
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 3: emphasize as we wrap up the segments, that there are real,

805
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: substantial consequences to policy and to governance that stem from

806
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 3: all of this. It's not just Trump getting rich on

807
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 3: this kind of icky scheme to leverage his influence and

808
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 3: you know, like get a prosecutor fire to go back

809
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: to the Barisma comparison, it's not like that. I mean,

810
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:13,879
Speaker 3: these arely, hugely consequential psychological effects on people who are

811
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 3: in public office right now. But then also on I mean,

812
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 3: we're about to talk about Iran Cutter is in the

813
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 3: center of those UAE the Saudi, We're about to talk

814
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 3: about this big New York Times story on MBS and

815
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 3: the Saudis, who are heavily invested in Kushner's affinity in

816
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 3: his fund is just completely insane. There's no way to

817
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: capture it. But that's where we are right now. And

818
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 3: just so we're clear, as the economy goes into a

819
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 3: shakier and shake your place, this could get so so

820
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 3: ugly and Trump is to blame.

821
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: Yep, well said, and that's a good transition to the

822
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 2: very latest with regard to Iran. Checking in on the

823
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: latest with regards to the Iran war. The negotiations are

824
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 2: they on? Are they not on? What is the Vice

825
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: President of the United States saying, we are joined this

826
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 2: morning by our front try to Parsy of the Quincy

827
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: Institute ord to Caesar.

828
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 9: Good to be with you guys.

829
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 2: So let me first get your reaction to these comments

830
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 2: from Jdvans that caught a lot of attention, where he

831
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 2: seems to indicate that they are using this moment of

832
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 2: a pause in hostilities to quote unquote refill the oil market.

833
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 4: Let's take a lesson.

834
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 8: There are a few things that we want. We want

835
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 8: durable commitments that are verifiable and backed up by inspections

836
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 8: that Iran will denuclearize their entire country. Okay, we're to

837
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 8: see how we get there. Number two, we want to

838
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 8: see what kind of an arrangement actually exists in the

839
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 8: Middle East between not just Iran in the United States,

840
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 8: but the GCC Israel Lebanon. We're going to play that

841
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 8: situation out. And then on the Straight of horn Moves,

842
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 8: I mean, I think you actually said it well, which

843
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 8: is that the Strait is open in the sense that

844
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 8: to oil traffic.

845
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 9: We're seeing more oil come out.

846
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 8: Of the Straight of Horn Moves and some days actually

847
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 8: more oil coming out of the Strait than came out

848
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 8: before the war even started.

849
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 9: So there's this element.

850
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 8: Of the you know where where the world oil economy

851
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 8: is kind of getting back into gear. That's going to

852
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 8: take a little bit of time, but you've already seen

853
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 8: the prices come way down. Now what the cynics will

854
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 8: say as well, if you look at the number of

855
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 8: ships that are trafficking, that's actually down from the pre

856
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 8: war start. But they're mostly talking about cargo ships and

857
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 8: other vessels. At least so far, what we've seen is

858
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 8: the oil traffic has reached its pre war its pre

859
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 8: war height. So I think what the President has told

860
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 8: us to do is use this MoU to sort of

861
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 8: refill the world's oil economy, to refill some stocks, and

862
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 8: then to see where the hand is. And you know,

863
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 8: if the as I've said this repeatedly, if the Iranians

864
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 8: are willing to make the commitments that we would like

865
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 8: them to make and are willing to back those up

866
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 8: with verifiable milestones, then we are going to change our

867
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 8: relationship with Ran. And if they don't do that, then

868
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 8: nothing has really changed except for what we've alread accomplished

869
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 8: from the military campaign.

870
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 2: So he says that the president wants to use the

871
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: MoU to refill the oil market and then see where

872
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: the hand is.

873
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 4: What did you make of that?

874
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 9: I'm frankling out to be surprised.

875
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 7: What I see this being is essentially that the administration

876
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 7: has a Plan B that they're trying diplomacy. I think

877
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 7: there's some people in the administration that are probably not

878
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 7: that excited about this diplomacy, and they have a plan

879
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 7: being in case it doesn't work out, and they want

880
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 7: to pursue their Plan A in a manner that ensures

881
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 7: that their Plan B is stronger. I think the Ionians

882
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 7: are doing exactly the same thing. This is part of

883
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 7: the reason why they're insisting on their position on the

884
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 7: Strait u ormost part of the reason why they're insisting

885
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 7: on their position in Lebanon. It's very much in case

886
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 7: there is no Plan A, there is no deal, that

887
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 7: they will be in a position to be able to

888
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 7: face the United States in another war. If that is

889
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 7: what it comes to. So in and of itself, I'm

890
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 7: not particularly surprised. Perhaps it was formulated in a way

891
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 7: that gives the impression that the Plan B actually is

892
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 7: the Plan A, that this whole thing is all about

893
00:41:55,360 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 7: making sure that you restock the storage of oil in

894
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 7: order to make sure that you can go to war again.

895
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 7: I'm not under that impression that that is actually what

896
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 7: the administration is doing. I do think, however, there's a

897
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 7: significant risk that that is where we will end up,

898
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 7: not because the intent is to go there, but because

899
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 7: either diplomacy doesn't work or because diplomacy is sabotaged. Also

900
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 7: want to point out one thing. Part of the reason

901
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 7: why oil prices never went up as high as they

902
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 7: could have during this war was because, by pure happenstance,

903
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 7: the inventory of oil globally was extremely high. So if

904
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 7: the idea is to go back in some ways improve

905
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 7: on that situation. I think it might be actually difficult

906
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 7: because it was extremely high in the first place, and

907
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 7: we still had a major, major oil shock and increase

908
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 7: of prices. And again, Vania has never went after the

909
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 7: infrastructure of oil in the Persian Gulf States in a

910
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 7: manner that they could have, which was one of the

911
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 7: cars that they kept to their close to their chest

912
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 7: if it was further escalation. So if the idea is

913
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 7: that some way, somehow, because of the MoU, the United

914
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 7: States is going to be in a much better position

915
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 7: to launch a war that militarily will be more successful

916
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 7: than the previous one. Color me skeptic. I don't think

917
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 7: the US has that option, even if the inventory of

918
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 7: oil is restocked.

919
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 6: And this is exactly what we wanted to ask you about.

920
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 6: Next we can put B two up on the screen.

921
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 3: Trita, professor of the University at the University of torontse

922
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 3: Ed Morandi responded to the Michael Noles interview that jadae

923
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 3: Vance did you just watched that by saying Iran is

924
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 3: rapidly rebuilding its civilian infrastructure, stockpiling critical supplies, advancing new

925
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 3: weapons systems, replacing thousands of destroyed decoys, fielding emerging technologies,

926
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 3: and expanding its network of underground bases and command and

927
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 3: control centers. From your understanding, is that an accurate description

928
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: of what's happening right now?

929
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 9: I suspect.

930
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 7: So this is also exactly what the Iranians did after

931
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 7: the Junie War, and they did it much more successfully

932
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 7: than I think US intelligence and is very intelligence expected

933
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,839
Speaker 7: because they were quite ready for that word came later on.

934
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 7: So again, I think it's very important to understand both

935
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 7: sides are taking a bet on a Plan A that

936
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 7: diplomacy could work, but neither one of them are walking

937
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 7: into the situation thinking Plan A is so solid, so

938
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 7: likely to succeed, that there is no need for a

939
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 7: Plan B, and for a plan see. Both of them

940
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 7: are investing heavily in those as well. The question is

941
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 7: does it mean that the Plan A is fake, that

942
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 7: there actually is an real intent to make it work,

943
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 7: at least when it comes to what I've seen so far,

944
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 7: given how far the administration has gone in for instance,

945
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 7: pushing back these Raelis, the progress that is made at

946
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 7: the negotiating table, the signals they are sending about a

947
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:52,240
Speaker 7: new relationship, and how the Yranians are responding and receiving those.

948
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 7: I do think that there is a serious plan A

949
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 7: from both summites. I'm more worried about that there may

950
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 7: be elements who are trying to sabotage this, whether it

951
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 7: is these Raelis or whether it is some of these

952
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 7: recent things that have happened. So, for instance, the MLU

953
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 7: that the US signed mediated between Israel and Lebanon, to me,

954
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 7: looks very much like an effort to salvotage to mL

955
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 7: you all together, and that was done by a different

956
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 7: part of the administration.

957
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit more about that. Put B

958
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,399
Speaker 2: three up on the screen. This was your analysis over

959
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: at your substack, which, guys, if you aren't subscribed to

960
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: treat a substack yet, I don't know what you're doing.

961
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: The headline year is why Iron believes Israel will attack

962
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: again before October. The recent israelly Lebanese agreement and Heswel's

963
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: unreported role in the previous war is leading Tehran to

964
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 2: this conclusion. So break down your analysis here and why

965
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 2: you think that deal with Lebanon is such a problem.

966
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 7: So the deal with Lebanon puts forward a completely different

967
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 7: approach on how to deal with Israel's presence in Lebanon.

968
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 7: It makes a condition for these Raelis to leave Lebanon,

969
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 7: and that condition is the disarmament of Hezbola. The disarmament

970
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 7: of Hezbola will not happen unless there is some sort

971
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 7: of a civil war that breaks out in Lebanon in

972
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 7: which against all odds, Hezbola loses. So it essentially ensures

973
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 7: that Israel will stay in Lebanon for a very long time.

974
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 7: The entire document is read as if the Lebanese government

975
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 7: is partnering with Israel, who is occupying Lebanese territory, against Hebola,

976
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 7: as if Hezbola is a common threat to both of them,

977
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 7: rather than Israel being a threat to Lebanon's sovereignty and

978
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 7: territorial integrity. This is completely different from the MoU. The

979
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 7: MoU essentially suggests that Israelis have to leave all of

980
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 7: Lebanese territory by the end of the MoU. It does

981
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 7: not make a condition for that, being that Hezebola has

982
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 7: to be disarmed. But although there's going to be part

983
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 7: of the negotiations on whether Hisbola will move further up

984
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 7: north in Lebanon, north of the Litani River, or other things.

985
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 7: But nevertheless, there is no suggestion that Israel will stay

986
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 7: in Lebanon for as long as Hezbola is not disarmed,

987
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 7: So this completely flips the entire equation. And part of

988
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 7: the reason why this is now really worried the Iranians

989
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 7: is because they believe that the Israelis have managed to

990
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 7: do this because they're currently holding certain positions in Lebanon

991
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 7: that were held by Hezbola during the war and were

992
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 7: critical for Hezbola's participation in that war, which has been

993
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 7: highly underreported. The Iranians tell me that they've only used

994
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 7: about forty percent of their offensive capability against Israel during

995
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 7: the war because they didn't need to because Hezbola was

996
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 7: so active, and this diverted Israeli horses and defense capabilities

997
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 7: because they had to face that front from Hebola as well.

998
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 7: By now having taken those positions, his Bola's ability to

999
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 7: participate in the next war is compromised, and this gives

1000
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,879
Speaker 7: these Raelis a very significant advantage, not a decisive one

1001
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 7: according to the Varni's, but a significant advantage in which

1002
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 7: they can launch a war again without having to worry

1003
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,919
Speaker 7: about Hezbwela having the same potency that it did during

1004
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 7: the war, and incidentally, we never heard about any of

1005
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 7: aswell as activities, or at least the extent to which

1006
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 7: they were affected, because of this near complete Israeli censorship

1007
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 7: of what was going on during the war inside of Israel.

1008
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 3: You mentioned that the Hasbal, a part of the agreement,

1009
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 3: was being negotiated by a different part of the administration.

1010
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 3: I'm assuming that you're referring to Rubio State Department world

1011
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 3: versus Vance Witcough world. Is that what you're understanding is

1012
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 3: of the dynamic here between what's being negotiated with the

1013
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 3: Iranians on the strade of Horn moves and other territorial

1014
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 3: Iranian questions versus what's happening with the Lebanese negotiations.

1015
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 9: I think there's a very common process that.

1016
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,919
Speaker 7: Rubio is not particularly excited about the nuclear deal, about

1017
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 7: the MoU and now suddenly he got very active in

1018
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 7: the region, which he had not been before that spent

1019
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 7: most of his time focusing on Cuba and Venezuela, and

1020
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 7: then you had this agreement as well as a joint

1021
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 7: statement by the GCC states that took a very pro

1022
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 7: American position when it comes to the Strait of Ormuz,

1023
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 7: so there was a flurry of activities by Rubio suddenly

1024
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 7: in the region. The perception region why not just on

1025
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 7: the Iranian side, is that this is done in a

1026
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 7: way that undermines the MoU because there is a struggle

1027
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 7: within the administration. I can't claim that I can confirm

1028
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 7: that that is true or not, but if you're standing

1029
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 7: on the outside, it certainly does look this way, and

1030
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 7: I find it very difficult to lead the MoU and

1031
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 7: the Libanese agreement in a manner that makes them compatible

1032
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 7: with each other. They actually seem to be almost designed

1033
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 7: to be income patible. The time frame, the conditions, everything

1034
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 7: is different. And this also tells you why it was

1035
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 7: so important for the Iranians to make sure that Lebanon

1036
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 7: was a red line for them, because it meant that

1037
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:17,240
Speaker 7: if it wasn't, if Israel could remain in Lebanese territory,

1038
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 7: if they were not pushed out as part of the MoU,

1039
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,879
Speaker 7: the Israelis and the US would be in a much

1040
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 7: stronger position to attack Yvon again, which goes back to

1041
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 7: what I said earlier on. Obviously, Levanians have been working

1042
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 7: on their Plan B and their Plan SEED just as

1043
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 7: much as the US administration has, and this contradicts their

1044
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 7: plan B. If the Israelis remain in Lebanon, it means

1045
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:44,359
Speaker 7: that Yvon's ability to defend itself if Israel attacks again,

1046
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 7: in which the incidentally Levanians believe, is now inevitable. Because

1047
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 7: there's another aspect that comes into play here, which is

1048
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 7: by October, these Radis are going to have their elections

1049
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 7: and Prime Minister Netaniagu is already in a bad shape

1050
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 7: as a result of the MLU as a result of

1051
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 7: him not being able to deliver the United States. He's

1052
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 7: being attacked by all sides for this failure from their perspective,

1053
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 7: and if he loses that election, he just doesn't lose

1054
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 7: his political career, he will then also lose his immunity

1055
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 7: when it comes to the corruption charges that he faces,

1056
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 7: and as a result, may end up in jail. So

1057
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 7: he has all the incentives in the world right now,

1058
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 7: both political, personal, and strategic, to launch a war, and

1059
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 7: keeping those positions in Lebanon makes it much easier for

1060
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 7: his world to do.

1061
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 2: So, let's talk a little bit more about the economic realities.

1062
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 2: If we go back to the first clip we played there,

1063
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 2: Vice President Jady Vance saying basically like, yeah, we're getting

1064
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 2: the oil market back to normal, We're refilling it. Certainly

1065
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 2: the administration wants to project a lot of economic confidence

1066
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 2: at the same time, can put before up on the screen.

1067
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: There was a declaration of emergency and authorization for temporary

1068
00:51:56,760 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 2: duty free importation of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco. It is

1069
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 2: not just the oil markets that are impacted by disruptions

1070
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 2: in the straight upfor moves fertilizer, we've all learned, it's

1071
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 2: also a very important commodity that flows through that area

1072
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 2: and comes from that area. So what did you make

1073
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: of this announcement? Does it indicate that there is perhaps

1074
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 2: more economic pressure and strain continuing on the US and

1075
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 2: the global economy than what the administration was to project.

1076
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 7: Well, there certainly is much more, because there is the

1077
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 7: oil impact, it's the fuel impact, and then it's all

1078
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 7: of the different secondary impacts. And one of the most

1079
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 7: important secondary impacts is fertilizer, for which a lot of

1080
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 7: oil products, of course are needed for and the fertilizer,

1081
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 7: of course are tremendously important because it feeds all of

1082
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 7: our agriculture, which means that it feeds our food, and

1083
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 7: if we don't have food, we have a completely different

1084
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 7: crisis rather than just people having to pay a little

1085
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 7: bit too much at the gas pumps. So we always

1086
00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 7: knew that there was going to be these repercussions. Now,

1087
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 7: if this since coincided with the continued closure of the

1088
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 7: straight up foremost, obviously it would have been much worse.

1089
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 7: But this is at a minimum reducing it. But it

1090
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 7: doesn't mean that we're completely out of the woods, or

1091
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 7: that these secondary impacts are not going to occur. They're

1092
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 7: going to occur, but they're likely going to be less

1093
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 7: impactful or detrimental than they would have been, of course

1094
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 7: had the straight continue to be closed. But this is

1095
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 7: part of the reason why I'm very skeptical about the

1096
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:30,359
Speaker 7: idea that just restocking these the oil inventory is going

1097
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 7: to make sure that everything is going to be fine

1098
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 7: and the next war is going to be fantastic. I

1099
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 7: think that's a highly optimistic view from the perspective anyone

1100
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 7: in the administration who would think that, and I'm not

1101
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 7: really sure that that is what they're thinking.

1102
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 2: Do you think the Iranians and the US have a

1103
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 2: slightly different conception of the pressures on the oil market?

1104
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 2: I was reading one analysis that said, effectively, what the

1105
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 2: Iranians are really watching is the strategic patrol room reserves,

1106
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 2: which continue to go down, so even as there is

1107
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 2: more flow into the oil market, that there continues to

1108
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 2: be a pressure that is mounting over this time period.

1109
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 2: Because I know one of the internal arguments in Iran

1110
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 2: is whether or not they should have even moved forward

1111
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 2: with this MoU, whether they are losing some leverage in

1112
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 2: the meantime. What's your understanding of those arguments.

1113
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 7: No, I think the strategic reserves are tremendously important, and

1114
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 7: first you're going to see the rest of the global

1115
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 7: economy being able to absorb this oil before you will

1116
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 7: see the strategic reserves being restocked, and that again is

1117
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 7: going to make it's going to take some time before

1118
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 7: you have that type of a full restocking that would

1119
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,080
Speaker 7: bring us back to the previous situation. There is obviously

1120
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 7: an argument on the Iranian side that says that they

1121
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,280
Speaker 7: should have gone further, They should have attacked the GCC

1122
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 7: states more aggressively, particularly the UAE. They should have kept

1123
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,799
Speaker 7: this going longer than they did in order to get

1124
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 7: the strategic reserves to go down even further and the

1125
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,280
Speaker 7: question is. At the same time, there is a flip

1126
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,720
Speaker 7: side of that argument, which is, if you wait too long,

1127
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,759
Speaker 7: you will also then make it more difficult for the

1128
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 7: administration to have the time needed to be able to

1129
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 7: provide the sanctions relief that would come through a deal

1130
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 7: that you're trying to achieve. After the midterms, most likely

1131
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 7: the Republicans are not going to do that well, at

1132
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 7: least in the House. Trump is going to have less

1133
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 7: leverage than he did before. He's going to walk into

1134
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 7: becoming more of a lame duck. His ability to provide

1135
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 7: and deliver on the sanctions relief that would be agreed

1136
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 7: upon in a potential MU starts to get compromised, and

1137
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 7: as a result, that actually weakens Iron's ability to be

1138
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 7: able to get a good deal. This is part of

1139
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 7: the problem that was happening during the JCPO. The JCPI

1140
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 7: in many ways was over negotiated. It took them way

1141
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,400
Speaker 7: too long to get to that deal, and as a result,

1142
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 7: by the time they got the deal, the administration had

1143
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 7: very little time left to make sure that the implementation

1144
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 7: was solid enough to protect it from any future presidents

1145
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 7: trying to walk out of it, and as a result,

1146
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 7: it became weak and any what it otherwise could have been.

1147
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:11,360
Speaker 7: You don't want to repeat that mistake now by allowing

1148
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 7: the negotiations to take way too long time, and then

1149
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 7: by the time the deliverance of the different agreements is

1150
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:21,239
Speaker 7: supposed to take place, the US side is going to

1151
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 7: be too weak to be able to fulfill that those promises.

1152
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 3: We wanted to get your take on this big New

1153
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 3: York Times piece as well. We can put the next

1154
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 3: element up on the screen about US Saudi relations. Kind

1155
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 3: of going under the radar this week, is that the

1156
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 3: Saudi Foreign Minister is in China. The Times this headline

1157
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 3: is how the Iran were ignited a clash between Trump

1158
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 3: and the Saudi Crown Prince, which sort of a remarkable headline,

1159
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 3: of course, given the close ties between Trump, certainly between

1160
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 3: Jared Kushner, his son in law, and the Saudi Crown Prince.

1161
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 3: Reading a bit from the piece here, it reports since

1162
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 3: the US and Israel attacked Iran on February twenty eighth,

1163
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia has tried to chart a middle course to

1164
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 3: protect its interest. It gave military and diplomatic support to

1165
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: them and was attacked by Iran, but the Kingdom has

1166
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:05,760
Speaker 3: also opposed mister Trump at critical moments, flexing its muscles

1167
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 3: when it sensed greater dangers resulting from American and Israeli aggression.

1168
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 3: The piece also asserts that the Saudis are seeing the

1169
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:14,280
Speaker 3: US increasingly.

1170
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 6: As a less reliable partner.

1171
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,439
Speaker 3: Does this story resonate with you treated Does this sound

1172
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 3: like an accurate rendering of what's happening behind the scenes,

1173
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 3: and what could the consequences be of that?

1174
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 9: If so, I think.

1175
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 7: The overall picture absolutely resonates that you're seeing. First of all,

1176
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:32,160
Speaker 7: that the Saudis at first were actually in favor of

1177
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 7: this war. They did provide military support, but I think

1178
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 7: they were deeply disappointed. They thought the US was going

1179
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 7: to be much more effected in this war. They too

1180
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 7: had underestimated the strength of the Vannians, that had overestimated

1181
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 7: the impact of the protests when it came to the

1182
00:57:48,960 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 7: fragility of the Yvanian theocracy. So they were disappointed in

1183
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 7: seeing how this whole thing went down. And then we're

1184
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 7: questioning many of the different decisions that the US made

1185
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 7: going forward, and did not want to see meaningless escalation

1186
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 7: that only would lead to the Saudis and the other

1187
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 7: GCZ states suffering more without really changing the strategic picture,

1188
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 7: and that's part of the reason why they stood up

1189
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 7: in a few couple of occasions against this. But they

1190
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:19,440
Speaker 7: had also struck their own deal, most likely with the Iranians,

1191
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 7: part of the reason why the Saudis or did not

1192
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 7: get the brunt of the attacks.

1193
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 9: In fact, a very little.

1194
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 7: Amount of attacks from the Iranians in comparison to other

1195
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 7: states such as Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, so I

1196
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 7: think at least relatively early on in the war, the

1197
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 7: Saudis realized this is not going the way they thought.

1198
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 7: This is not going the way the US stopped, and

1199
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 7: they started to look at their options instead of blindly

1200
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 7: following the United States, realizing that the US didn't know

1201
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:49,600
Speaker 7: where it was going, and the fact that they are

1202
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 7: now coordinating with the Chinese that they're looking for further

1203
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 7: diversification is going to be a pattern that we are

1204
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 7: very likely to see not just with them, but with

1205
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 7: many of the other ECC states as well, including the UAE.

1206
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 7: The UI may very well double down on its relations

1207
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 7: with Israel and Saudi Arabia, but it is simultaneously striking

1208
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 7: deals with Ivanians. They struck a deal with Ivanians just

1209
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 7: in the last couple of weeks, which is part of

1210
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 7: the reason why when it came to the last round

1211
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 7: of exchange of fire between the US and Yvan, the

1212
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 7: Ivanians retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain and did not strike

1213
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 7: the Mradis because they had already struck a deal. So

1214
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:30,440
Speaker 7: you're going to see a lot of double play, a

1215
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 7: lot of countries making deals with many of the different

1216
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 7: actors instead of just simply putting all of their eggs

1217
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 7: back into one baskets. That's what they did before it

1218
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 7: didn't work. They're going for diversification now.

1219
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 2: And lastly, what is you're understanding our talks happening this week?

1220
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: Are they not happening this week? Do we expect another

1221
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 2: market timed resume of bombing campaigns here over the weekend?

1222
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:53,959
Speaker 4: What do you think?

1223
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 7: I mean, talks did occur in Doha, whether they get

1224
00:59:57,360 --> 01:00:01,200
Speaker 7: renewed or not remains to be seen. You know, I

1225
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,680
Speaker 7: think we should also remember we've seen a tremendous amount

1226
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 7: of drama and tremendous high dicibel of all kinds of statements,

1227
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 7: even threats, etc. Nevertheless, with some delay, talks have gone

1228
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:19,439
Speaker 7: forward and I think it is a reminder of the fact,

1229
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:21,920
Speaker 7: and in fact, on top of just you know, high disciple,

1230
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 7: we also saw attacks from both sides. I think it

1231
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 7: is a reminder at the end of the day, neither

1232
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 7: side really wants to go back to a full scale war.

1233
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 7: It is not to their benefit. They need to get

1234
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 7: to some sort of diplomatic arrangement. It is to the

1235
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 7: benefit of both of them, as well as for many

1236
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 7: others as well. So there will and unfortunately a lot

1237
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 7: of snaffoos and a lot of elements of escalation. But

1238
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 7: so far we have not seen the talks collapse altogether.

1239
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 7: Could they absolutely, you have a couple of more of

1240
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 7: these type of exchanges of fire between the US and

1241
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 7: the environment. It's very difficult to see that this mu

1242
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 7: will collapse, but it will not collapse easily. I think

1243
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 7: that's the lesson we should learn from the last two

1244
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 7: or three weeks.

1245
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that's a hopeful note to end on

1246
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 2: doctor True to Parsi of the Quincy Institute and also

1247
01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:11,160
Speaker 2: of the Tree to Parsi Substackrae to have you secret

1248
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 2: to see again.

1249
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 9: Thanks so much for having me appreciate you. Pleasure