1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:10,039 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day since coronavirus 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. The outbreak 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 1: has a new epicenter in Latin America. But why have 4 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 1: some Latin American countries managed to slow new infections while 5 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: others are becoming new hotspots. But first, here's what happened 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: in virus news today. For the first time, a drug 7 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: has been shown to improve COVID nineteen patients chances of surviving. 8 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: It's a low cost anti inflammatory called decks of metha zone, 9 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: and it's been on the market for decades. A studied 10 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: by University of Oxford research chers found that patients who 11 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: needed breathing support were less likely to die over a 12 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,839 Speaker 1: period of four weeks when they were on the drug. 13 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: For patients who weren't unventilators or oxygen therapy, there was 14 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: no benefit. A number of anti inflammatory drugs are being 15 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: studied around the world for helping coronavirus patients cope with 16 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: a powerful immune system over reaction sometimes called a cytokind storm. 17 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 1: Texas reached a record level of COVID nineteen hospitalizations, with 18 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: the biggest daily jump since June four, according to state 19 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: Health Department data. Meanwhile, Florida reported that new cases rose 20 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: to the highest level since the pandemic began. They are 21 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: among several states for the coronavirus outbreak is worsening. Finally, 22 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: Beijing has raised its COVID nineteen emergency response to the 23 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: second highest level after coronavirus infection cases researched. According to 24 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: China Central Television, all schools will restore online courses and 25 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: college students will stop returning to campus. And now Today's 26 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: main story. As the pandemic spreads around the world, new 27 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: hotspots are emerging. Coronavirus is spiking in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, 28 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: and elsewhere, and health experts have called Latin America the 29 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: new epicenter of the pandemic. The America's with more than 30 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: three point eight million reported cases, is now the hardest 31 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: hit region in the world, but the impact has been uneven. 32 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: Some countries have successfully slowed the rate of new infections, 33 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: others see that rate continuing to climb. Bloomberg Senior editor 34 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: Jason Gale spoke with the World Health Organizations half official 35 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: for the region to find out what makes some populations 36 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:17,239 Speaker 1: especially vulnerable. Dr Carrissa Ettian is director of the Pan 37 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: American Health Organization. She says the United States has the 38 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: most cases, but other parts of the region are seeing 39 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: an uptick in cases as well. We are seeing rising 40 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: levels of transmission, some of them exponentially in Brazil, in 41 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: Chile and Peru, in South America, in Mesoamerica, in Mexico 42 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: or So Panama and Costa Rica. At the start of 43 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: the pandemic, Latin American countries closed their borders and issued 44 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: physical distancing measures, but Carissa says the virus eventually came 45 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: in with returning travelers. So the early cases of COVID nineteen, 46 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: we're returning national who had been to Europe holiday in 47 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: um Spain and Italy and France for the most spat 48 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: and then they were returning home and we're being diagnosed. 49 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: These initial cases often had the space and financial resources 50 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: to self isolate, so it was easy to control the spread. 51 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: But Chris says eventually COVID reached poor and vulnerable communities 52 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: where transmission was much harder to contain. That was especially 53 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 1: the case in crowded urban areas within adequate access to 54 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: water and sanitation. In money of our our vulnerable populations. 55 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: They belong to an informal economy, so they have to 56 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: go out every day. They must go out every day 57 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: for their livelihood, and they share public transportation. They cannot 58 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:53,239 Speaker 1: implement physical distancing. There is no facility for hand washing. 59 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,799 Speaker 1: So in fact, all of the all of the public 60 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: measures that we are insisting to to be able to 61 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: protect yourself, they can't. Chris says, there's another reason why 62 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: the poor have disproportionately suffered from this outbreak. They don't 63 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: have significant access to health services, even when when the 64 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: government says, well, you can come to health services and 65 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: and it's free, but they are so not used to 66 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: run into a health service for a car, for a 67 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: hold because normally they would have to pay, or the 68 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: services so far away from them. So so that's that's 69 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: complicates really the efforts of the government to slow the transmission. 70 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: Chris says, the coronavirus is exposing vulnerabilities amongst certain racial 71 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: and ethnic groups, the migrant population, the urban urban population 72 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: that are living in low income areas for descendance, so 73 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,559 Speaker 1: the black population in Latin America is a vulnerable group 74 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: as well. We saw around the Amazon Basin. We are 75 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: seeing really large number of outbreaks with large number of cases. 76 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: The two most vulnerable groups and even Brazil is your 77 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: Afro descendant population under indigenous population, and when they catch 78 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: the coronavirus, they're more likely to get sicker because they 79 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: already suffer from higher rates of tuberculosis, diabetes, and chronic 80 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: diseases known to increase the severity of COVID nineteen, and 81 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: that also makes them potentially more infectious. They when they 82 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: come into contact with the COVID nineteen case, it just 83 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: spreads it in that community. Chris And says Latin America 84 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: is also experiencing arising cases because countries don't have sufficient 85 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: access to gloves, face masks, and other personal protective equipment 86 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: or PPE he needed to keep healthcare workers safe. It 87 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: isn't made locally and shortages have led to infections among 88 00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 1: healthcare workers. The percentage rates different from countries to countries. 89 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: But yes, we are seeing a moderate level of infection 90 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: of healthcare workers because they have no PPS, because they 91 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: have to reuse PPS because so um that is a problem. Still, criticists. 92 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: Some Caribbean nations have managed to contain transmission. They are 93 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: small population, but they very early. They instituted very strict 94 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: public health measures. They closed their borders, they instituted lockdowns, 95 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: UM severe social distancing. They did a lot of risk 96 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: communications as well. They were prepared with testing, they did 97 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: contact tracing, the isolated and the quarantine. They were perfect 98 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: public health uh case. And I think what has helped 99 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: they in the Speaking Caribbean as well, all of them 100 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: have well developed primary healthcare UM systems with public health 101 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: and so they have already healthcare workers in the districts 102 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: who are trained to do contact tracing, who are trained 103 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: to UM, to visit m do home visiting to UM. 104 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: They know where the population lives and who they are. 105 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: Chris says the intensity of COVID nineteen differs across the 106 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,679 Speaker 1: Americas and there's no uniformity and when transmission will peak 107 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: by in large cases a still rising, and modeling predicts 108 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 1: that might continue for some weeks, certainly for countries in 109 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: Latin America and the twelve countries or so, that we 110 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: will continue to see UM rise rising transmissions and probably 111 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: the next three or four weeks. Yeah, so in Haiti 112 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: we probably will see peaking maybe in six weeks or 113 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,599 Speaker 1: five weeks. You know what whats us and concerns, as 114 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: is that even with the rising transmission um some countries 115 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: are looking to open up to lacks the stay at 116 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: home measures and more people entering the workplace, entering society. 117 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: Chrissa was responsible for drawing up the Regent's plan for 118 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: an influenza pandemic in two thousands six. She says the 119 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: coronavirus pandemic is nothing like should imagine. COVID nineteen has 120 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: taught her a couple of things, the importance of a 121 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: solid primary health system and equitable access to health care. 122 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: I have characterized this pandemic as a crisis of health, 123 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: a crisis of the economy, and a social crisis. And 124 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 1: I think as we go forward, we need to plan differently. 125 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 1: So we need to do social inclusion and and and 126 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: look after people's people's needs much better. But I think 127 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: we need to think going forward and with an approach 128 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: that is based on equity, on human rights and solidarity, 129 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: because really countries cannot think of going it alone. They 130 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 1: have to come together, they have to share experiences. While 131 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 1: economic development has been a major priority for many countries 132 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: in the Americas, the pandemic has shown how quickly and 133 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: devastatingly a virus can undermine years, if not decades, of prosperity. 134 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: Chrissa says she's no doubt the world will face more pandemics. 135 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: What's important is that we learn the lessons from this one. 136 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 1: That was Jason Gale in Melbourne, and that's our show today. 137 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from around the world, visit 138 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: bloomberg dot com Flash Coronavirus and if you like the show, 139 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rate on Apple 140 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 141 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 142 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: produced by Topher foreheads Jordan gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson and 143 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. 144 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Francesco Lead 145 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Lead is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 146 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.