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Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I am Chris Welsh, and today

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Speaker 1: we are talking about the biggest questions in fantasy for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, in fact, the ten biggest questions of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. And joining me, of course, is the

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Speaker 1: wonkiest of pigwins. It is Kelly Kirby. Kelly, what's up?

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Speaker 2: Not a whole lot? How are you doing well? So

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Speaker 2: we were just talking. We hadn't talked in a really long time,

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Speaker 2: so it's nice to be here with you and talking baseball.

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Speaker 1: Finally, it's sad You're just so busy and Kelly's just

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Speaker 1: out there just like doing all this stuff in the

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Speaker 1: back end, doing all these crazy things. I get my

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Speaker 1: time with Kelly is usually during baseball season in the

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Speaker 1: leading off chat is where I get to spend the

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Speaker 1: most of my time. But Kelly not only does hockey,

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Speaker 1: it kind of does a little bit of everything, clearly

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Speaker 1: does baseball and also runs a lot of our contests here.

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Speaker 1: So you're gonna probably have a lot of questions here

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Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty five season, right.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I do, absolutely for sure, because twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: just looks like it's going to be a little bit

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Speaker 2: different on paper than twenty twenty four and certainly twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three. So as I'm writing player notes, I'm just like,

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Speaker 2: I don't really know what to do with this guy.

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Speaker 2: So I'm really excited for you to ask me, like

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Speaker 2: on air, what I'm going to do with that guy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and a lot of this is going to derive

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Speaker 1: as well from things that we experienced last year trends,

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Speaker 1: positional trends, players. So we're going to go through the

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Speaker 1: ten biggest questions that we are going to answer to

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Speaker 1: best of our ability going into this season and hopefully

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Speaker 1: that's going to help you guys get through it. And

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Speaker 1: some of these are very player centric as well too.

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Speaker 1: It's not all theory. If anyone's thinking, like, oh, you

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Speaker 1: guys are just going to talk about stolen bases, like, no,

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Speaker 1: it's not just about that. There are some players that

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Speaker 1: are carrying some very heavy weights around them as well

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Speaker 1: as the overall picks. So before we get into that,

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Speaker 1: just want to mind you guys to check out everything

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Speaker 1: we have got going on over at Fantasy Pros. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel YouTube dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros m LB. You can also find the

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Speaker 1: podcast whatever podcasts are. It is a brand new year.

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Speaker 1: We are going to be doing tons of cool prizes.

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Speaker 1: I am already working on some of those as well,

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Speaker 1: whether it's into leading off or the draft season. So

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Speaker 1: make sure you are locked into all the content as well.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you've got a bookmarked over at Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: because my playbook, The Draft Wizard, we did a mock

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Speaker 1: draft episode. All of that is coming to you very soon,

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Speaker 1: so you can go and download the apps and get

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Speaker 1: ready for all the new content, plus ranks and more.

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros got you hooked up? Fantasy Pros MLB. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's jump into this number one, the top question for

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five season. It's pretty easy, is it.

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Speaker 1: Who is the true number one fantasy player this year?

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Speaker 1: So I think it's appropriate to talk about the top

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Speaker 1: of the draft. I say this because I think there

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Speaker 1: are four quadrants to this, Kelly. There are four ways

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Speaker 1: you can look at the number one. I guess I

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Speaker 1: should say there is a fifth in there, and I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what that is. But the four quadrants of

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Speaker 1: the type of player that you want is a the

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Speaker 1: all encompassing I do everything show Heyo Tani except have

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Speaker 1: a position. There's b the I do everything does not

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Speaker 1: quite as good as show Heyo Tani, but I would

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Speaker 1: deserve an MVP Bobby Witt Junior. There is I want

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Speaker 1: all of the homers in the entire world Aaron Judge.

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Speaker 1: And there is the I want all the stolen bases

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Speaker 1: in the entire world with pretty good power and potential

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Speaker 1: number one fantasy player in Elie de la Cruz. The

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Speaker 1: fifth option, I play points and I want a picture. Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about pictures later here, but really those are

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Speaker 1: like the four quadrants of it. So based on all

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Speaker 1: of those things, you can have everything at shortstop, maybe

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Speaker 1: just not quite at the tippy top. You can have

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Speaker 1: everything without a position. You can have all of the

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Speaker 1: power while doing some other stuff, and you can have

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Speaker 1: all the speed while doing some other stuff. Who is

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Speaker 1: the true number one in fantasy this year?

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Speaker 2: Well, I will say that for me, the true number

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Speaker 2: one in fantasy this year is the same one that

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Speaker 2: I listed last year. And I just think it's show Hey,

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Speaker 2: and I think it'll be show Hey until future. Notice.

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Speaker 2: For me, I don't know how you like, look past

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Speaker 2: a fifty to fifty guy and say, oh no, and

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Speaker 2: then he's gonna pitch, Like, oh, what a terrible bonus

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Speaker 2: to have come back in twenty twenty five. So for

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Speaker 2: me alone, and I will say I had Bobby Whitl

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Speaker 2: ranked number one. I kind of I feel like every

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Speaker 2: day I flip them just to see where I'm just

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Speaker 2: to see what I'm feeling. But for the purposes of

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Speaker 2: this moment, I would say it's show hey, just the

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Speaker 2: things he's able to do, the lineup that he's in,

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Speaker 2: and then especially in the leagues where he's just got

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Speaker 2: the dual eligibility and you can throw him in a pitcher.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you go against that. That's always

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Speaker 2: my that's always my argument to have a guy who's

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Speaker 2: that good at both and and people are like, oh,

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Speaker 2: but you know so and so judge did this better.

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Speaker 2: I was like, but he didn't pitch.

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Speaker 1: So there's yeah, there's the MVP conversation for sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean I think it's interesting. Like with Otani, I

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Speaker 1: agree here. I think the answer is show hey, Atani,

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Speaker 1: even though he is positionless, the negative is he you know,

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Speaker 1: he takes up that util spot that kills a little

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Speaker 1: bit of flexibility obviously, if you're wanting to throw some

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Speaker 1: other guys, and it kills guys like Marcelo Zuna, if

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Speaker 1: you wanted Stanton, you know, it kills a couple of

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Speaker 1: those util only type of players that are floating out there.

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Speaker 1: But like, the offensive advantage is so extreme. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you're telling me I can get fifty to fifty

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Speaker 1: with a great average and the best lineup, I kind

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Speaker 1: of just don't care about the position like that. I

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Speaker 1: think that's relative. That was an argument. Just want to

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Speaker 1: point this out. I made this last year. I made

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Speaker 1: this argument. I would love We're not gonna do it

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Speaker 1: with the editors here, but I want to pull up

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Speaker 1: the clip of last year where I literally made this

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Speaker 1: argument in draft season last year that who cares if

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Speaker 1: he's positionless with all of the stats. That's the thing

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Speaker 1: that I know is holding him back for other people.

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Speaker 1: I think there are other arguments and then I mean,

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Speaker 1: I give you those four. I think all of them

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Speaker 1: play a role in the like NFBC world, I can

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Speaker 1: see where Ellie is going to get so number ones

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Speaker 1: in there. I mean, extreme stolen bases in an extreme

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Speaker 1: hitter friendly environment I see it, especially if he continues

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Speaker 1: to progress. I mean, all of those things are positive.

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Speaker 1: If you're telling me I can get a twenty five

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Speaker 1: to seventy five season out of him, I mean that's

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Speaker 1: like similar to what we had had like with like ronald'

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Speaker 1: kunya in in the previous year was like forty whatever

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Speaker 1: it was, forty sixty, forty seventy judge, same thing. Maybe

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Speaker 1: even in a points league, there's a little bit more

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Speaker 1: value with the big bopping power. And like I said,

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Speaker 1: Bobby wits across that court. I think all four of

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Speaker 1: them play. Some people may be a little less comfortable

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Speaker 1: in the positionless show Heyo Tani, but at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, that big question of who is the

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Speaker 1: true number one pick in Fantasy NFBC shows it as

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Speaker 1: show Heyo Tani, and I think it'll stick that way.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I'm gonna throw out to you, though,

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Speaker 1: is the pitching side of it. He shouldn't have pitching

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Speaker 1: eligibility this year in any format, so you're probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna get the pit I mean, unless they're just gonna

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Speaker 1: this is the tricky thing. Unless they're just gonna throw

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Speaker 1: at you. Well, he's a dual eligible player, so we're

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Speaker 1: going to give it to him, but technically, based on

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Speaker 1: what you've done the previous year, in theory, he shouldn't

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Speaker 1: have that pitching eligibility at all, and he would have

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Speaker 1: to pitch a certain amount of games to get it.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know if sites how sites are going

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Speaker 1: to treat that this year, or if they're going to

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Speaker 1: do it. I don't think NFBC has him as a pitcher.

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Speaker 1: Do they have him as a pitcher?

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Speaker 2: Do you know? I actually don't know what they've got

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Speaker 2: him at. Yeah. I think that's a good idea because

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Speaker 2: I would assume I guess that's an interesting point. But

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Speaker 2: like with Yahoo who split him into two players, I

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Speaker 2: would just assume that he's a pitcher, so they would

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Speaker 2: just haven't listed as a pitcher.

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Speaker 1: But they do. They do still haven't listed as a picture.

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Speaker 1: But I do think it's like an interesting caveat to

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Speaker 1: like how position you know, how like position eligibility works,

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Speaker 1: Like the guy played all last year and he didn't

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Speaker 1: pitch a single game, so they're almost giving him like

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Speaker 1: this extual little benefit, and if he qualifies at two positions,

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Speaker 1: there you go, there's like the actual benefit for head

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Speaker 1: to head, it's like well even but like daily transactional leagues.

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Speaker 1: That makes o Taani even better. But those are the

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Speaker 1: big or of who is the number one pick in fantasy?

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Speaker 1: I said, somebody's name in here, and this comes to

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Speaker 1: number two on the list of the biggest questions, I said,

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Speaker 1: Ronald d'acunya. So you say, why are we not talking

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Speaker 1: about ronald'acunya on this list? Because it was him at

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Speaker 1: the tippy top. So the question is should we be

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Speaker 1: afraid of Ronald d'acunya and his high cost? Now he's

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Speaker 1: not in that list because he's coming off of pretty

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Speaker 1: serious injury. That injury might have him miss the first

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Speaker 1: month of the season, and he talked about maybe not

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Speaker 1: being as aggressive on the base path, So why is

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Speaker 1: he not in that top conversation? Well, I laid some

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Speaker 1: of that out, But the further question that's pushed is

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Speaker 1: should we be afraid of Ronald d'acunya because early NFBC

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Speaker 1: drafts he's going close to the third round. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, fifteen team leagues, he's going into the thirties,

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Speaker 1: not going in the first, not going in the second,

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Speaker 1: even though we know the talent is there. He is

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Speaker 1: now stacking some injuries, he's gonna miss time, and he's

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Speaker 1: gonna run less. Should that have us running scared?

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you need a run scared, But

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Speaker 2: I also can't see taking a second or third round

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Speaker 2: pick on him at this point, just and I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you've seen an update of other than the

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Speaker 2: one that I've seen, which came out like early November

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Speaker 2: that said that the GM was like, well, he were

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Speaker 2: expecting him back early in the season, but it could

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Speaker 2: be as late as June. And I'm like, well, that's

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Speaker 2: two full months of a guy that you're going to

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Speaker 2: take in the top three, like grounds, is he going

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Speaker 2: to come right off and start running? Is he going

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Speaker 2: to like ease back in? You know, there's just too

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Speaker 2: many questions that I personally would not want to risk

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Speaker 2: it with him this year at that point. You know,

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Speaker 2: if he starts slipping fourth, fifth, sixth round like okay,

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Speaker 2: then you might start to consider it, but you still

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Speaker 2: have to bake in not knowing what you're going to

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Speaker 2: get from him when he comes back.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty scared, and I think you should be scared

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Speaker 1: of Ronald d'acuni at this point, based off of all

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Speaker 1: of that, like him missing really any period of time

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Speaker 1: is scary. We've gone down this road in fantasy. If

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Speaker 1: you've played fantasy for any period of time, you've experienced

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Speaker 1: this where you're like, oh, this guy might be hurt

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Speaker 1: and he'll come back.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: It comes to mind as a basketball one, but it

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Speaker 1: was like five or six years ago. It's like Kawhi Leonard,

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Speaker 1: like Kwhi Leonard was kind of banged up. Take him

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Speaker 1: like number one overall and then he missed significant periods

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Speaker 1: of time. It's happened with football. It's kind of happened

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Speaker 1: across the board. So taking on injury risk is very scary.

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Speaker 1: Plus the words. So I think it immediately eliminates him

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Speaker 1: from first round. It immediately eliminates him from second round.

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Speaker 1: In fifteen team, Rod, you can probably start to consider it,

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Speaker 1: but I am probably still fading. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: ton of interest. If it was a ten to twelve team,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe a head to head where if I

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Speaker 1: have him full force and going into a playoff, I

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Speaker 1: might be more interested. But I think you should be scared,

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Speaker 1: especially if the price gets pushed up because of his

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Speaker 1: name projections. We have Steamer projections out there, according to Fangrafts,

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Speaker 1: have him playing one hundred and thirty one games, twenty

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Speaker 1: six homers in forty three stolen bases. Let's start here.

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Speaker 1: Over under one hundred and thirty one games.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go under. I think, well, tourney's probably a

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Speaker 2: little bit better.

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Speaker 1: Over or under forty three I'm sorry, forty six stolen bases,

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Speaker 1: because that's what Steamer has him.

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Speaker 2: See. I'm just I'm gonna go the under. But one.

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Speaker 2: That one is trickier because I think if he's gonna run,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna run like a lot, right, but who knows

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Speaker 2: what the d.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under on both of them. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go under on games. I'm gonna go under on stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: He's literally I mean, I know he wants to run,

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Speaker 1: but I think he had openly talked about I might

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Speaker 1: need to run less. I mean, this is this is worrisome.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is a knee injury. They can't afford

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Speaker 1: to lose him again. I don't think that offense needs

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Speaker 1: to be as hyper aggressive as far as him running.

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Speaker 1: You want him to do it, but I think you

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Speaker 1: might be looking closer into a twenty into twenty five range,

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Speaker 1: and I clearly know we can hit for huge power.

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Speaker 1: Guy hit forty one homers. Maybe that taps back thirty

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Speaker 1: twenty would be phenomenal if you can get that out

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Speaker 1: of Akunya. But there is mass injury risk. You don't

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Speaker 1: know how long it's going to go. So I think

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Speaker 1: the answer to the question is should you be afraid

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Speaker 1: of the high cost of Akunya. Yes, you should be

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Speaker 1: because I don't know what the platforms are going to

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Speaker 1: drop on Acunya's early ranks and where he's going to

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Speaker 1: be sitting. But based off of that projection, if that

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Speaker 1: projection is what people are going with almost thirty homers

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Speaker 1: and almost fifty stolen bases, they're gonna have them ranked

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Speaker 1: in the top fifteen. I think that's too much injury

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Speaker 1: risk at this moment. If we get some great news

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Speaker 1: where they say he's one hundred percent coming back before May, okay,

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Speaker 1: that changes the perspective, But I still think the stolen

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Speaker 1: bases are going to go down a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: I think that is the answer to that one. Number Three,

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Speaker 1: let's go into the pitching market. I mentioned if you're

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Speaker 1: in a points league, maybe the number one guy you

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Speaker 1: would want to take is a pitcher, So how about

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Speaker 1: who is that number one pitcher? And the question is,

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Speaker 1: is Paul Schemes the number one starting pitcher in fantasy?

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Speaker 2: And as you saw in the show sheet, I really

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Speaker 2: really dedicated myself to answering this one by saying, maybe,

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Speaker 2: but I would take Schooble. So I think Skens is unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: I think he is on paper, he's absolutely the sp one.

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Speaker 2: I know that you love him, so I'm trying not

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Speaker 2: to disparage him in any way. I just wonder in

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Speaker 2: terms of like innings, if in Pittsburgh and he throws

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Speaker 2: so hard that I have just enough concern that I

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Speaker 2: kind of want to see another year from him before

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Speaker 2: I buy all the way in. But I have no

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Speaker 2: advice to say don't take him. I just would prefer Google.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The thing I wish I would have done here this

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Speaker 1: is this would have been really good show planning is

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Speaker 1: go back and look and see like the performance of

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Speaker 1: the number one fantasy pitcher year after year and where

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Speaker 1: the finishes actually are and where they're going, Like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, like who was the number one this year?

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Speaker 1: Wasn't it Burns? I think Scooble was high up on

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Speaker 1: that list. I think which plays really well. I know

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Speaker 1: Burns was high up that list.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought Sale was up there too, wasn't he?

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Speaker 1: No, Sale was pretty low. Sale was like outside the

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Speaker 1: top one hundred. Sale was one of the most beneficial pitchers.

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Speaker 1: You know, Reagan's went really high. It's kind of moved around.

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Speaker 2: Oh okay, I'm sorry, this is this is a tough question.

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Speaker 1: This is a tough question. Is Skeens the number one guy?

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Speaker 1: From a stuff perspective of what Paul Skeens did, it's ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: He had a thirty three percent K percentage with only

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Speaker 1: a six percent walk rate. Nuts pulled up one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty innings, which very likely could push him to

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy an under two ERA with a

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Speaker 1: two and a half expected ERA, which was phenomenal. He

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Speaker 1: was elite across the board for seeing fastball was one

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Speaker 1: of the best strikeout pitches thirty seven percent, and his

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Speaker 1: splinker ended up having like an over twenty percent. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he developed these great pitches to keep everybody off his

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Speaker 1: stuff as elite, but like so is Scoobls. And my

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Speaker 1: difficulty with this is you also have a two era,

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Speaker 1: you also have a thirty percent K percentage, a better

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Speaker 1: walk rate. He was up year over year on his fastball.

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Speaker 1: He's change up had a thirty four percent K percentage,

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Speaker 1: which was crazy. And you know, I think the floor

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Speaker 1: on him based off of maybe some of the concerns

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Speaker 1: that sit out there as far as like schemes and

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Speaker 1: arm and usage, could anything happen? Are something relevant to

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Speaker 1: be out there? But I think either one of these work.

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Speaker 1: So is Skeens the number one? Yes? Can you justify

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Speaker 1: going Scooble over? Yes? Can you go anybody else?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: But I think just from a pure strikeout standpoint, if

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Speaker 1: you were to give me two hundred innings on Paul

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Speaker 1: Skeins versus two hundred innings on Scooble, I mean, do

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Speaker 1: you think there's still I mean, I guess how am

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Speaker 1: I trying to say this? If you give me two

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Speaker 1: hundred If I if you were promised two hundred innings

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Speaker 1: on all schemes and no injury, would he be the

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Speaker 1: flat out guaranteed number one starting pitcher for.

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Speaker 2: You, Yes, without any question.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So then there is like a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a question that floats out there.

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Speaker 2: For you, Yes, very much. So, I mean I think

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Speaker 2: it's and again it's that it's the innings. It's what

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Speaker 2: are they going to do with him? Uh? I think

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Speaker 2: it's Pittsburgh. Sorry. I always just kind of like, I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they're going to shut him down for

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Speaker 2: no reason or you know, I don't trust them, I guess,

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Speaker 2: is the thing. But if you guaranteed me two hundred innings,

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Speaker 2: then yeah, I would take him over school, even though

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Speaker 2: I love school.

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Speaker 1: Steamer says one hundred and eighty eight innings this year

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Speaker 1: projected off of his one thirty three, seems like that's

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Speaker 1: a possibility.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: Still a two and a half era and two almost

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty strikeouts this year, So pictures are

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Speaker 1: all risky. And that's why I would say, if you

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Speaker 1: want to talk about, you know, is he the number one? Yes,

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Speaker 1: he's the number one, But who you want is another question?

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Speaker 1: And that comes to question number four. This is kind

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Speaker 1: of a two parter. A is pocket aces and then

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Speaker 1: slash high end drafting of starting pitching dead. And I

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Speaker 1: know that's difficult because, like we just talked about Paul

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Speaker 1: Skins and Scooble, what's so great is they feel confirmed,

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Speaker 1: like you know, we had like the Garrett Cole injuries

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Speaker 1: and stuff like that. Whether it's Skien number one or

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Speaker 1: School number one, it's those two and then there's a

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Speaker 1: gap and everybody else. And I think that is what

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Speaker 1: is uniquely different than maybe prior years. There is no

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Speaker 1: question about what that elite looks like. But is that

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Speaker 1: elite dead in investing high end to starting pitching? And

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Speaker 1: then the second question is like, would you pocket a

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Speaker 1: sit Schooble and Skins this year?

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Speaker 2: I personally would have no problem pocket acing the two

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Speaker 2: of them together for the sheer joy of having both

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Speaker 2: of them on my team, and then just chasing not

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Speaker 2: necessarily punting power per se, but kind of chasing the

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Speaker 2: like four other categories for the hitters versus just home runs.

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Speaker 2: I promise I will do it in one league, like

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Speaker 2: I can guarantee you that I will do it in

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Speaker 2: one league. I think the and for me, I think

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Speaker 2: the big thing is always like is it a strategy

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Speaker 2: that no one else is using? And if it's a

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Speaker 2: strategy no one else is using, then it becomes viable.

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Speaker 2: And if everyone on Earth is like, you can't do pocket,

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Speaker 2: aces can't do pocket aces like it might be worth

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Speaker 2: trying because then you've taken the two off the board

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Speaker 2: and everyone else has to start scrambling for starters, and

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Speaker 2: you can get a lot of those like third, fourth,

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Speaker 2: fifth round guys that have a lot of value on

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Speaker 2: their own. They're just not those top five we talked

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Speaker 2: about before. So yeah, if I have a late round

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Speaker 2: pick in first round, like if I'm in the ten, eleven, twelve,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't I would think about it just doubling up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the idea of like pocket ass is

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Speaker 1: viable with those two. I think the bigger question is

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Speaker 1: is pocket ace is viable if you can only get

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Speaker 1: one of them and then it feels like no pocket

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Speaker 1: aces exist. It's pocket scooble and schemes. That's it. It's

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Speaker 1: pocketess's and get those outside of that, I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: I want to jump. And I think that comes back

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Speaker 1: to maybe what the bigger part of this question is

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Speaker 1: is like, is a high end drafting kind of dead

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Speaker 1: well going through this, Zach Wheeler's kind of held some

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Speaker 1: value Gilbert for the most part. Gilbert obviously has moved up,

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Speaker 1: but like he was drafted kind of high. Garrett Cole

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Speaker 1: is still in this range, which feels pretty nice, but

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Speaker 1: let's run through some of this. Cole Reagan's did not

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Speaker 1: live up. He's actually ranked i think lower this year

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Speaker 1: than where he was being ranked prior to that. George

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Speaker 1: Kirby was a massive disappointment this year. He had no

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Speaker 1: progression whatsoever, and though he didn't walk people. Pablo Lopez

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Speaker 1: huge disappointment. The injury with Yamamoto was a big disappointment.

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Speaker 1: There's a Luis Castillo fell apart. A lot of that

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Speaker 1: high end pitching failed you. But look at some of

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Speaker 1: the players that are now being drafted super high and

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Speaker 1: where they were drafted compared to last year. Garrett Crochet

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Speaker 1: an absolute freebie, Chris Sale who we meant cy young

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Speaker 1: Winner was being drafted outside the overall top one hundred,

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Speaker 1: Blake Snell horrific start, incredible into the season, and then

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Speaker 1: you can throw on like a guy like Michael King,

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Speaker 1: who was my favorite from last year. Michael King had

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Speaker 1: a starter's workload. It was incredible. So it maybe exists around.

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Speaker 1: You can't every year be like, oh well, there's just

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Speaker 1: by math, there's going to be like, you know, seven

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Speaker 1: guys that are going to jump up from outside the

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Speaker 1: top thirty up. Now you can't necessarily just prove and

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Speaker 1: say that, but it is the identification and the value

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Speaker 1: differences on the pitching. There is still inherent risk Garrett

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Speaker 1: Crochet going to maybe a little bit more of a

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Speaker 1: hitter environment with injury concerns that are always floating out there.

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Speaker 1: Even though I love him, there's that Burns Carvin Burns

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Speaker 1: signs of the Arizona Diamondbacks concerns. Maybe just in general.

432
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: Also is like, you know, this stuff was still great,

433
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: but like he took a back seat to last year

434
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: and being able to identify what is the difference between

435
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 1: let's say a Cole Reagans and then coming down to

436
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 1: a Green, you know, and Hunter Green is just an

437
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 1: example of a pitcher that's being probably ranked outside the

438
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: top twenty overall. And Hunter Green had like an absolutely

439
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: ridiculous season if you really look at it. Two seven

440
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: five ERA fastball and slider both held hitters to under

441
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: two hundred. He added a splitter which changed his game.

442
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,679
Speaker 1: He had a three three four ERA in first half,

443
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 1: a one ERA in the second half. So that's like

444
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 1: my main point. There's these incredible values that are still later,

445
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: but we fool ourselves into thinking these high top ten

446
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 1: pitchers are chalk and we're guaranteed and everything is safe.

447
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: It's not because I would probably argue that half, if

448
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 1: not maybe one more of the top ten from last

449
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: year did not even come close to recouping or failed

450
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 1: in overall value. So that's a lot that I threw

451
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: out there. So I would say high end sp drafting

452
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 1: kind of is. It's not dead because it is a

453
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 1: pivot play. But I'm not going to do the high

454
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: end drafting, but I would screw around, mess around a

455
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: little bit with those pocket SS's.

456
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: Yes, yep, I agree with you entirely. And I think

457
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: as long as you feel confident that you're able to

458
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 2: identify the pitchers that are going to may probably outperform.

459
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 2: If you feel like like evaluating pitching is not your

460
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: strength in fantasy drafting, I think it's okay to take

461
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 2: a couple of the ones that maybe have the most

462
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: like veteran status, seem to be the most consistent with

463
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 2: that like a higher floor than most people with the

464
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 2: ability to maybe go two hundred and eights or something

465
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 2: along those lines. It's just you know, if you're good

466
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 2: at finding it later, then by all means ignore it,

467
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 2: but no, I will. There will be no way that

468
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: I could avoid drafting the two of them in at

469
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: least one league.

470
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, and I think it's actually good that you

471
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 1: said that too. One thing I want to add to

472
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 1: that is like, high end drafting doesn't mean you can't

473
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,199
Speaker 1: take one, but I think the high end SP drafting

474
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 1: is where someone's like, well, I'm taking an SP in

475
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: the second round, I'm taking them in the fourth round.

476
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to take them in the seventh round and

477
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: then maybe the nine and I've taken you know, maybe

478
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: top eight picks. You've taken half of those of starting pitchers.

479
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: I think that's what we're talking about. Doesn't mean it

480
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: won't work. You could hit on the right guys, but

481
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: I think I would probably push more for you know,

482
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 1: higher combo to players that you know, provide good batting

483
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: average of power and speed, then higher home run chasing

484
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: before I start going nuts, but you know, maybe if

485
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: you're going to give me Chris Sale in the third round,

486
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: I'm going to take one Chris Sale and then I'll

487
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: wait a while and maybe I'll jump in and take

488
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: you know, a discounted Pablo Lopez and then I will,

489
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 1: you know, dip into the outside the top one hundreds

490
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: and give me, you know, the the what is it,

491
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 1: the Joe Ryans, the Hunter Browns of the world as

492
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: Zach Allen's like that, you know, innings eaters. That would

493
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: be more of my play than in a heavy, heavy investment.

494
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: All right, we got more coming up here, but first,

495
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: the futures market's going to be opening up soon. You're

496
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: gonna get the team totals, which is going to be

497
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: super exciting. You're gonna get MVP Rookie of the Year.

498
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 1: You're gonna start getting all the incredible like this guy

499
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: is gonna hit more than this home runs last year,

500
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: You're My best bet of the season was I put

501
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: a six to one, a six and a half to

502
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 1: one to be specific, on Ellie Daily Cruz to lead

503
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: the league in stolen bases. That was a huge, big

504
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: win for me. You have a chance to start stocking

505
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: up and doing your work with Betting Pros. You can

506
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,199
Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app today. Now Here is the

507
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,280
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508
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509
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Speaker 1: some of your favorite betting Pros people. You can check

510
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: out the great feed we have. People are putting their

511
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,439
Speaker 1: picks in. But the offer is you can unlock a

512
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 1: full month free of Betting Pros Premium by using promo

513
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,880
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514
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515
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Speaker 1: same game parlay tools, prop bet analyzer, price pick, prop

516
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,719
Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet. I'll be pressing our boys. We were

517
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: working on a nerfee cheat sheet from last season. Lots

518
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: of great stuff. But you can start testing and playing

519
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520
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521
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Speaker 1: f P free. All right, let's jump into number five.

522
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: Here are Corbyn Carroll and Julio Rodriguez Fantasy Bus. Now

523
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 1: this is why I asked this question because last year

524
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: they were Fantasy Bus. This year you get almost no discount.

525
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: They're back. It's crazy. Corbyn Carroll probably going top four,

526
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: Julio essentially both of them like top five last season.

527
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: Both did not return and recoup value. Corbyn Carrol definitely

528
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: saved it with a huge second half of big power output.

529
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 1: Did not steal the same amount of bases, but you

530
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: know he still got there, Julio Rodriguez was just okay,

531
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: was fine. It was not what we expected. There was

532
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: no growth, there was a step back. So by virtue

533
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: of their cost to last year, you can just say

534
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: what I paid and what I got that was kind

535
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: of bust ish. But the question is they are back

536
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: with first round values. Both of these players are for

537
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: the most part going inside of the top fifteen. So

538
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 1: are Corbyn, Carrol and Julio Rodriguez going to bust in

539
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five?

540
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: I said no on the sheet, and I don't know

541
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 2: if it's because I was filling it out at like

542
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: one am or something, but because now when I think

543
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 2: about it, I'm like, I don't know about Julio. I would,

544
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: but calling them bust just seems like a really big

545
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: word for their age. With Carrol's just being like we

546
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 2: talked about the sophomore slump, which may not be real,

547
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: but he certainly did not look like himself. I think

548
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: he dealt with some injuries, so I can see the

549
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: retaining like him retaining some of the value first round value,

550
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: I don't see on him. With Julio, like you said,

551
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 2: it's that lack of growth. It was the lack of

552
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 2: like he didn't. He wasn't more selective in his hitting approach.

553
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: He wasn't stealing the bases as fast because he wasn't

554
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: gain on base as much. He still plays in a

555
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: just an absolute hitters nightmare of a ballpark. It's so

556
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: I think I would rather have Carol. I wouldn't call

557
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 2: either one of them bus, But I also am not

558
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: drafting either one of them in the first round, so

559
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: that I don't know, I don't know have a defining bus.

560
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 2: But that's where I would be with them.

561
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: Well, that's good, that's maybe A better question is is

562
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: drafting Carol or Julio Rodriguez in the first round going

563
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: to be a failure? And it sounds like you are.

564
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: I Actually, I'll screw around a little bit, and I

565
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 1: kind of like the idea of you could maybe potentially

566
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: get them on the wheel and you could take both,

567
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: but I think taking both of them together might be

568
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: more inherent risk than you end up wanting. But you

569
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 1: seem to be very against either one of them's first

570
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: round picks, even though Carrol is a fifty home run

571
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 1: potential player. But it's batting average sunk so dramatically, and

572
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: like you're banking on him being able to bring back

573
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: that batting average and whatever shoulder thing people keep bringing

574
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 1: upon them. Julio didn't become average, but he definitely wasn't

575
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: that special player that we saw before drafting him in

576
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: the first round. That's a bust.

577
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 2: Yes, I think so, And I always warn't everyone with

578
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 2: the Julio thing that even you can't judge him based

579
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: on April. Ever, he's just awful in the first month

580
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 2: of the season, so if you draft him, you can't

581
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 2: decide if you made a very bad decision until at

582
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: least May, if not June. But no, I just don't see.

583
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 2: There are so many other players in that area that

584
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: I'm more interested in, and I would rather take the

585
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,719
Speaker 2: risk on someone with upside a few rounds later than

586
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: try to stack the two of them and if they

587
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: both hit, that's great. I feel like Carol has a

588
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: much higher chance of hitting in first round value than

589
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: Julio at this point.

590
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna say taking them together feels like there's

591
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: some bust, but I just still think there's just big upside,

592
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: you know, Like, I think there are safer players. I

593
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: like the idea of taking one of them. Probably no shocker.

594
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to go on the side of Carol. I

595
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: think the stolen bases, they're just still so so elite,

596
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: like the idea of like Josh Naylor being on that

597
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: team and them not losing this big RBI potential. There

598
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: was this guy I wish I had the stat here.

599
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: It was like it was the average players getting on

600
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: base and their percentage of scoring. I don't know if

601
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: you saw this stat that was sitting out there. It

602
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: was follow me here. I'm completely gonna butcher, but it

603
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: was something along the lines of, like, you know, the

604
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: MLB average of a player gets on base in scores,

605
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: let's call it was like twenty five percent or thirty percent.

606
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: And and this was a Corbyn Carroll thing. Corbyn Carroll

607
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: was like fifty percent of the time or sixty percent

608
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: of the time he got on base, he was scoring.

609
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 1: He's an elite runs guy. He's an elite stolen base guy.

610
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: RBI's they can get there. The power he obviously was

611
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: able to bring back whatever people were determining. You know,

612
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: I spent so much time last year talking about the

613
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: way he was being pitched. He obviously was up and inside.

614
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: You could look at his chart from the year before.

615
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: See that's where he struggled and he got demolished. Then

616
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: you know, he just kept chasing it and he openly

617
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: talked about by the way Corbyn, Carroll said, the way

618
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: he wants to get through things is work through them,

619
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: like literally just to tack and just keep going until

620
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: and hit through it. It was the word, and it

621
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: didn't really work until the end where he showed back

622
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: that power. So I think there's huge upside and Tay

623
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: and both of them are not bus and taking one

624
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: of them actually has great return and it's something I'd

625
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: want to do, but taking both of them has some

626
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: bus potential. Corvin Carroll, we love stolen bases? Should we

627
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: continue loving stolen bases? Number six? Are stolen base? Or

628
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: is stolen base chasing a thing of the past?

629
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: And I wrote on there that I think yes, if

630
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: you're talking about a player like a story Ruiz right

631
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 2: that he was, He's a one trick guy and his

632
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 2: one trick is stolen bases, and I don't think they

633
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: chasing that, especially early in the draft of any kind,

634
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: is worth it at this point because there are so

635
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,239
Speaker 2: many guys that are going to once you add them

636
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: all together, you're gonna You're gonna get there. If you

637
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: do want to chase stolen bases, then just draft Ellie

638
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 2: and call it a day and then worry about picking

639
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: up some more later in the draft. But I I

640
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: personally think it's it's a thing of the past because

641
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: it's a category that, especially like in a head to

642
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: head weekly league, like you don't need that much most

643
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 2: of the time to win it. And so if you

644
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: draft one guy who's got that, who's got that really

645
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: elite speed of Carol or an Ellie or Bobby like

646
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 2: you're you should be good for the most part. So no,

647
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 2: I'm not if there's a if that's a player's only strength,

648
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: I'm not going anywhere near him.

649
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: Forty Nine players last year stole twenty or more bases

650
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: that had at least one hundred and fifty eight pats.

651
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: Forty nine of those players, thirty one had twenty five

652
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: or more stolen bases. I'm not doing the math here

653
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: of the like ten plus homers, but like, those guys

654
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: are there. I mean, look at a guy like Luis

655
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 1: Garcia with the Nationals. He was almost a twenty twenty guy.

656
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 1: You ended up having Jeremy Payinnea who was fifteen to twenty.

657
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you can find cheaper stolen bases. Leis ring

658
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: Gifo is one of the those players that you know,

659
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 1: he's kind of got one side where he's a power bat.

660
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: He was kind of retransforming himself to be contact and

661
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: stolen massive amount of bases. Michael Ciani had twenty stolen bases.

662
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think having to chase stolen bases is

663
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: a thing of the past. Now, finding quality stolen bases,

664
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: I think that's the new that should be what the

665
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: new conversation of the stolen base chase is is, Yeah,

666
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: you're right, like Ellie is the hey you get Ellie.

667
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: You can maybe set it and forget it. You could

668
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: take a Bryce Terrang, you know, who had fifty stolen

669
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: bases last year if you have really not focused. But

670
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: that's the key here is like Bryce Terrang is not

671
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: a high commodity. You could take Raphael Dever's of the world,

672
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: you know, you could take the Vladimir Guerrero's, you could

673
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 1: take you know, whatever power outfielder Jordan Alvarez. You could

674
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: take those and you can be like, man, I don't

675
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: have a lot of stolen bases. The problem is is

676
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: you can The positive is you can get terrang who's

677
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: cheap and has tons of stolen bases, but pairing them

678
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: with significant homers, that's things get lost. And that's kind

679
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: of been my motto of stolen base chasing is I

680
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: want quality stolen bases, and that is where Carol is

681
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 1: a twenty stolen based guy with thirty or thirty plus

682
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: stolen bases with twenty plus home run power, Jared Duran

683
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: twenty thirty, Jackson Merrill like like, though obviously Bobby Witt.

684
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: Those are the quality stolen bases. So I think you

685
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: want to chase quality stolen bases. But if you want

686
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: to go heavy floor power bats, the Devers, the Rileys,

687
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: the Alvarezes, the vlads, and you want to just keep

688
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: pairing those players as you go, you can find later

689
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: rounds of Lane Thomas who had thirty plus stolen bases.

690
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: Dylan Moore, his batting averagel sink you, but he had

691
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: ten homers and thirty two stolen bases. Stott, I mean

692
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: I have twenty three players of thirty or more stolen bases.

693
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, chasing stolen bases is kind of dead because

694
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: you can find it everywhere, Kelly.

695
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Mayer and I talked about this a lot

696
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 2: in September, where Victor Roblos was like winning us, Like

697
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 2: he picked him up off the waivers at the beginning

698
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,720
Speaker 2: of September and he was just like clearing the stolen

699
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 2: base category for me and head to head leagues like

700
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 2: I don't remember who went down, but I needed someone

701
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: who might steal, and you know, he just turned around

702
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: and batted like three eighty three and stole like seven

703
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,879
Speaker 2: or eight bases a week. And it was just like, like,

704
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: if it's that easy and you don't have to chase

705
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 2: it on draft day, then I don't see the point

706
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: in doing it. So yeah, I think I think it's

707
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 2: the one you can certainly wait on much much longer

708
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 2: than the other nine categories.

709
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's retransforming it in your brain. Stop chasing

710
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: stolen bases and chase quality stolen bases. Those are high average,

711
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: higher power. Getting two of those players I think is paramount.

712
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: So that's why you know, if you got like the

713
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 1: Juliow and Carol, it's like, okay, that kind of fits

714
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: that you might be a deficient in batting average, but

715
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: like those are the type of things. I'm looking at it.

716
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: You're starting with a Jose Ramirez and then you know,

717
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 1: coming in later with a Lawrence Butler or a Brent

718
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: Doyle or something like that. Like those are more quality

719
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: homer and stolen bab even though I don't like Doyle

720
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: this year, bad home run splits and stuff, But like

721
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 1: those are the higher quality stolen bases. That's what I

722
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: want to chase. Number seven, Speaking of Lawrence Butler, Lawrence

723
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: Butler was a rookie that paid off pretty well. He

724
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 1: was not a rookie that anybody was drafting and people

725
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: were picking up. Frankly, he was so good to start,

726
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 1: and then he tanked. People dropped him, and he came

727
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 1: back up. I remember bringing piece of Pa back on

728
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: at the end of the season on leading off, you

729
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 1: know when he leaves, and he was like Lawrence Butler

730
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 1: still a thing, like oh yeah, buddy, when you left,

731
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: he was tanking, and then he came back up and

732
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 1: he was incredible. That's a rookie that really benefited. But

733
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: there are a lot of rookies that their cost can

734
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: be tough. Wyatt Langford high costs, early struggles, people got

735
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: frustrated and then he bounced back, Jackson Surio, it was fine,

736
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: kind of slowed blah blah blah. Then you get guys

737
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: like Jackson Merrill who were low cost, high return. The

738
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: question is should you trust drafting rookies, And specifically it's

739
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: centered around the higher costs this year. That is James Wood,

740
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: that is Jason Dimingez, that is Dylan Cruz. I mean,

741
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: Paul Skens was going hot high ish last year for

742
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: not having any spot and obviously ended up being a

743
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: big payoff. But all three of those guys, those are

744
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 1: like the top one hundred to one twenty five players,

745
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: and all we are is a couple announcements away from

746
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 1: Roman Anthony being a player that's going to be popping up.

747
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 1: Jackson job would be another one of those. Should we

748
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 1: be comfortable trusting the high cost rookies?

749
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: No, under no circumstances. I think, you know, there were

750
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 2: some the can't miss guys, you know, like when it

751
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 2: came up a couple of years ago, like, yeah, that

752
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 2: one made a lot of sense to me, go ahead

753
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: chase it, But even he struggled when he got up.

754
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 2: So I think I sort of have a rule where

755
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: I'm like, if there's one I really want. I will

756
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: target that one. I will draft him, but I'm not

757
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: going to draft too. I'm not going to draft seven.

758
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 2: I have a really hard time trust in him. The problem,

759
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: of course, it's like Pschologically, everybody wants the upside and

760
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: everybody wants the youth, and nobody wants the proven. Like

761
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: draft the boring veterans and win your league because it's

762
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 2: just not as fun. So yeah, I mean of that

763
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 2: group that you just said, I'm like, yeah, it's I

764
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 2: would draft ones strictly for the upside, and I would,

765
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: but I would also draft them expecting nothing. So in

766
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 2: terms of trust, it's i'd know it's good to me,

767
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 2: it's just a total risk. But I know that you

768
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 2: are much more on this. So what do you think.

769
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm kind of I'm a little bit on

770
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: the opposite end. And here's the only reason is because

771
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: I feel like the cost is cheaper than it's been

772
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: in past, and I think that is because of feeling jaded.

773
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 1: I think people that maybe faded at the end might

774
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: have a little disdain for Wyatt Langford even though, like

775
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: he ended, solid projections are phenomenal. Cheerio really bounce back.

776
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: I don't think it was ever like horrific or anything

777
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 1: for anybody. But I think people look at Corbyn, Carrol

778
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: and Julio Rodriguez and see these kind of soft morny

779
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 1: type of slumps. They see how long it took for

780
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 1: returns on some of these players to really really make sense,

781
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: and I think people feel jaded in that, and I

782
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: think in turn that has made the cost be cheaper.

783
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: I mean, James Wood is probably your most expensive, but

784
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 1: then Dylan Cruz and Jason Dimingez. I want to say

785
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 1: Dimingez is going outside of like the top one hundred.

786
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: Jackson job projections are in the one hundred and thirty marker.

787
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 1: As far as innings, I think pitchers are kind of dicey.

788
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:27,879
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a Paul Skins that's out there,

789
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 1: but they're kind of free. And then there's some other

790
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: sneaky ones. I mean, Jordan Lawler is going to be

791
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: out there and he might have a gig this year.

792
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: There are some sneaky ones. So I actually think you

793
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: shouldn't have heavy investment. But like my approach is the

794
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 1: same but different than yours. I like, I actually think

795
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: you should have one. I think you should play that

796
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: upside because the cost is cheap. But you shouldn't get

797
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: too highly invested. I don't want to have like James Wood,

798
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: Jason Dominguez and Jackson Job and be like, let's go,

799
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: that's not the play in redraft. The lower the investment,

800
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: the better, and I think the I think James Wood

801
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: is the most exciting and probably the one I'd obviously

802
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: want to invest in, But I think I'll have more

803
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: shares of Dylan Cruise and Jason Dimingez simply because they

804
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: are going to be at a cost where their upside

805
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: is so great, and those are twenty twenty bats. Those

806
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 1: are all guys that can go twenty twenty. Dylan Cruz

807
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: maybe even safer in that. So I think there's a

808
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:22,280
Speaker 1: floor ness to the popular rookies now that there wasn't

809
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: last year. So I will say you can trust some

810
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: type of investment because it's just so much cheaper, so

811
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 1: much cheaper, which is nice.

812
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 2: For sure, And is now the time we start warning

813
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: people about the guy that comes out of spring training

814
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: like that everyone's drafting five rounds too early, Like maybe

815
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 2: don't do that this year. Based on the Jordan Walls

816
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: and the White Labors and that like there's going to

817
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 2: be one that lights it up. You have to be

818
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 2: careful and not to draft based on that entirely.

819
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 1: I think that player is Roman Anthony. If they if

820
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: they announce, if the Red Sox give them a spot,

821
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: I'm going to be tempted. But Roman Anthony, I mean

822
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 1: just great power, speed combo. It's an insane bat. He's

823
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 1: skyrocketed up ranks. People look at the Red Sox roster

824
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 1: and they want to start projecting if they don't fill

825
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: out one of those spots and Roman Anthony starts hitting

826
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,479
Speaker 1: pretty well, Roman Anthony will be a player that goes

827
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: from outside the top three hundred to inside the top

828
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: one hundred. But like his value is going to be

829
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: super sexy. But I think he would hit at the

830
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: bottom of the lineup. That would be the one the

831
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 1: Jordan Walker ask I would be a little bit scary

832
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: in redraft. I would so that I'll just we'll put

833
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: a pin in that one. Which it's a good question.

834
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 2: And Roman Anthony was the one I also thought of

835
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 2: for him, like he's okay, yeah, I was like, oh,

836
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 2: he's the one this year. So yeah, But.

837
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 1: I mean to the point too, like maybe it would

838
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 1: be Jason Dimingez, like maybe he flies up, but I

839
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 1: think his value is already just there. People assume he

840
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: has the gig. Same thing with Dylan Cruz and they're

841
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 1: not boosting up too crazy. Dylan Cruz, I might more

842
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 1: as I keep talking through. It might be my favorite

843
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: of all of them, because I think he can hit

844
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: higher in the lineup. He's cheaper than James would Jason Dimingaz,

845
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: they might lower in the lineup. So you know, just

846
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 1: some potential and the stolen bases are pretty great.

847
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 2: All right.

848
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: We got three more of the biggest questions. Number eight,

849
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 1: should you spend a high pick on a closer? NFBC

850
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: early adyps kind of mess that up for a lot

851
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: of people. You're gonna see mock drafts that are going

852
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 1: to be based off of some of what they do.

853
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 1: People ranking might be off of that, and NFBC props

854
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 1: up multiple things. Stolen based guys upside catchers and closers.

855
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 1: Closers get pushed up. We saw plenty of guys not

856
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 1: return their value. We saw tons of guys create new value.

857
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: We've got big questions in here. So because of those questions,

858
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 1: should you get exactly what you know? In a closer

859
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: that doesn't have volatility Hater class A Devin Williams, or

860
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: should you fade going heavy into closers early because of

861
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 1: the volatility and the cheap saves you can get later.

862
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 2: This is one of those that much like the starting

863
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 2: pitcher we were talking about before that I don't mind.

864
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: I typically don't draft closer high, but if there is one,

865
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: if if if there's nothing else I particularly like, and

866
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 2: around instead of going down to like what I might

867
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 2: have looked at for the round after, I might take

868
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: a class A er. I might take Devin Williams, who

869
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 2: I think is that's a really interesting guy in New York.

870
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 2: So I'm not against it, but I'm certainly if there's

871
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 2: anyone else that I like, I have no problem fading

872
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 2: the closer until like even double digit rounds and then

873
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: just start looking at him because there's so much, so

874
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 2: much volatility every single year, and sometimes you know, Hater.

875
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 2: I had Hater last year in a lot of leagues

876
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 2: and it wasn't fun some days, like like and he was,

877
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 2: you know, one of the guaranteed ones. So it's it's

878
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 2: a hard position and you have to just decide if

879
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 2: that like, that's what you want to invest in. But

880
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 2: I will if there just seems to be kind of

881
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: a little dead zone and there's one of the top

882
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 2: guys out there, I.

883
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 1: Think my answer is no. I think everything you said

884
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: makes sense. I think the cost of the specifically the

885
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: ones I mentioned class A Devin Williams, it's going to

886
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: be so high because people want that assuredness that I

887
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 1: don't want to pay that premium. The middle guys, if

888
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 1: they get pushed up, I'm not super interested. You have

889
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,399
Speaker 1: to compete, especially if you're in rodo you can't punt.

890
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: I mean you can punt maybe head to head, but

891
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: I just think I mean, like we felt, Paul Sewald

892
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 1: was like it was a great middle pick last year,

893
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: and then it ends up it's like it's Justin Martinez

894
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: and it's Aj Puck. It's a million different players. So

895
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: I think you can stream. And I think also we

896
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: are seeing more I've said this over a couple last

897
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: couple of years that closers are becoming more of the

898
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,319
Speaker 1: running back of fantasy, and that teams don't want us one,

899
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: they want multiple, they want multiple guys and they have

900
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: the fireman who can take the high leverage or then

901
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: they have the other guy. I think team like the

902
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks right now look like it would be Martinez an

903
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: aj Puck. You know there are team, multiple teams that

904
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: are going to implement this, So I would go cheap.

905
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: I would not have a high heavy investment on a

906
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 1: closer right now, even though it is exponentially safer. Number

907
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 1: nine on the list is batting average. The biggest statistical

908
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 1: advantage to draft that used to be stolen bases. Everyone

909
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 1: chase stolen bases because if I get ahead, boom, it's

910
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 1: kind of power Right now, power isn't doesn't feel it's

911
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 1: at the premium and you can get some thirty plus

912
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 1: homer guys late that you want to build and build

913
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 1: and build on power. But for the last couple of years,

914
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: with great power comes bad batting average responsibility. And that's

915
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: the problem here. Batting average does sink. It killed me

916
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,879
Speaker 1: the last two years. I've done a really poor job

917
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 1: at it, and I'm trying to find a way to

918
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: push back on it. So do you think when you're

919
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 1: talking about your pivot game, the pivot is to pivot

920
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 1: into batting average as a statistical advantage that people are

921
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 1: just failing at.

922
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: And I say yes on this one. And I'm actually

923
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 2: following Pat Fitzmorris. We work with he every year. He

924
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: writes something about drafting, like his draft da philosophy, and

925
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: he talks about having a high batting average creates like

926
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 2: the opportunity for those other things, like if you want

927
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 2: to win the runs category, it really if they're on base,

928
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 2: you know, it's the I for the last couple of years,

929
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 2: I've kind of done the Kyle Schwarber Luis Raiaz combo,

930
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: like I'll take the power and no average, and then

931
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 2: later I'll get the guy who might win the batting titles.

932
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: So it's I think it's definitely worth targeting at the

933
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 2: expense of power. That's a no, because the power still

934
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: covers at least two categories, if not three. But if

935
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 2: I have the choice later and later in the rounds

936
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 2: and I have a guy who might bet to seventy

937
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 2: five to eighty, I'm gonna take him just to kind

938
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 2: of boost that average just a little bit.

939
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 1: And I think what that lives in too. I read

940
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: that as like, well, when I'm talking about this statistical advantage,

941
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 1: it's a guy like Devors, you know, a guy like

942
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: a big power bat that can hit for where I'm

943
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: going for stolen bases, give me power, big power bats,

944
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: give me good batting average where I can and that's

945
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 1: an advantage. That's something that Vladimir Guerrero. It's not comparative

946
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: this year, but people would do the like Vlad versus

947
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 1: Alonzo or someone might be like, why would I take

948
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: Vlad in the second round when I can get Alonzo

949
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: in the fourth and be like, well, there's batting average.

950
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 1: That's a big difference there. So I think we can

951
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 1: get lost with a lot of these tools he players.

952
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,399
Speaker 1: I think that chase of rookies and upsides sometimes we

953
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: will also falter with bat batting average kind of stinking

954
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: a bit. So I do think the batting average is

955
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: a statistical advantage. Paying attention to what stature also chasing.

956
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: So if you're chasing, I want more power guys because

957
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: I know I can get stolen bases later. Make sure

958
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:34,800
Speaker 1: that you are targeting definitively those guys with high batting averages.

959
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: That's what I would be looking for. You know, Bryce

960
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: terrang is a really great stolen based chase. Is two

961
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: fifty four batting averages that okay for you? That might

962
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 1: be solid in that chase, knowing that like guys you know,

963
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 1: like there's the Mike Sianni's or Dylan Moore would be

964
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 1: one of those players that is solid. But is it

965
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: worth paying attention more early on to a guy like

966
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: Jared Duran who stole over thirty bases, hit over twenty,

967
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 1: and hit two eighty five Like those are the things

968
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: that I'm talking about, So paying attention to batting average

969
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: is a statistical advantage. And number ten, it's kind of

970
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: the question. I mean, we're we're putting out the question,

971
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: but we're asking the question with a question, what can

972
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: you not afford to do again this year on your

973
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 1: fantasy team?

974
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 2: My first answer is draft Ronald Acunya because I had

975
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 2: him in like two or three different leagues last year,

976
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 2: and in one I've never won my home league, and

977
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: I was in the final and I just couldn't quite

978
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 2: get there. And all I could think was, I was like,

979
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 2: if I had drafted pretty much anyone else in the

980
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 2: first first round, I probably would have been okay. So

981
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: that's like my joke answer.

982
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 1: But is that a Kunya or is that an injury?

983
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: I mean, not that you would have known, but was

984
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: it more about injury because I don't know, like I

985
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: get what you're saying here, but Acuna was safe, Like

986
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 1: it was like, hey, great, Acuna did all this, Like

987
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 1: it's just like getting screwed by injury, which we have

988
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:00,040
Speaker 1: no control over.

989
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 2: It, right, So I mean that was more of my

990
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 2: That was more of my joke cancer, I think, just

991
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: because I was like, I can't risk it this year.

992
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean I every year you have people,

993
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 2: just like you have pundits constantly saying, don't worry about injury.

994
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 2: Everyone can get injured, don't wry about injury. And I'm like,

995
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 2: but we know there are some guys who are much

996
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 2: bigger risk. And so for me, it's I think I

997
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,280
Speaker 2: gave I think I went with that last year. I've

998
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 2: drafted Trout, I drafted Buxton because their value was so great,

999
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:28,919
Speaker 2: and I'm like, and then they just went exactly how

1000
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 2: I knew it was going to go. And so for me,

1001
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 2: it's if there's somebody that's just so injury prone who exists,

1002
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 2: I'm going to avoid them this year. And I mean,

1003
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: I'm still I'm sure I'll lose some other players, but

1004
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: it's just not worth it to me. Even I'm just

1005
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 2: taking it. It's baseball. I'm taking it into consideration at

1006
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 2: this point.

1007
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good point. Mine is kind of in

1008
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 1: the same realm because I did similar things. I didn't

1009
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: have a lot of bucks in but you know me

1010
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 1: had a trout here or there.

1011
00:48:58,960 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 2: You know me.

1012
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 1: When my biggest crutch in fantasy is a player, regardless

1013
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 1: of their injury history, that is an elite of elite

1014
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 1: talent when they're out there. So Jacob de Gram has

1015
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,239
Speaker 1: always been a crutch for me. Trout like he was

1016
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 1: killing it before he got hurt. Those are when a

1017
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: guy is like subpart See now I'm out on busing

1018
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 1: because now his performance is like even more subpar when

1019
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: he's out there. But when they're out there and they're elite,

1020
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: that's the tough thing. There are new players. I think

1021
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 1: Acunya now belongs kind of in this injury prone range.

1022
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 1: But not only was a what happened to you have

1023
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: been all of us? Injuries killed us and you can

1024
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 1: say avoid injuries. Mine is pay closer attention attention to

1025
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 1: my depth because what I did specifically in NFBC this

1026
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: year that really screwed me is I built these really

1027
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 1: strong teams. Some were risky, some were not. And then

1028
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 1: on the bench, I played nothing but upside. I just

1029
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: played all the prospect here when he gets it. And

1030
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: then what ends up happening is when I started having

1031
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 1: bad injuries and losing players, I was screwed. I didn't

1032
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 1: have the depth of players that could jump back up

1033
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: in best balls or like and draft champions that could

1034
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 1: end up jumping back up. And the same kind of

1035
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 1: inherent thing ended up happening in more of those standard leagues,

1036
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, being smaller, I was able to kind of

1037
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 1: pick up. But in those the next caveat would be

1038
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: you can't afford to be complacent on the wire. That

1039
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 1: would be the other thing I would throw to you

1040
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 1: guys as an existential maybe speaking for the audiences. Injuries, yes, depth, Yes,

1041
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: don't be complacent on the wire early on, and make

1042
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 1: some aggressive moves because you might have missed out on schemes,

1043
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:36,840
Speaker 1: You might have missed out on Laurence Butler if you

1044
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: were standing on your laurels. So be more hyper diligent

1045
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 1: and aggressive on the wire. And I think that would

1046
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 1: be the bigger thing that I could probably gives a

1047
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: piece of advice for everybody this year.

1048
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I agree with both of those. I think,

1049
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 2: although don't be so aggressive that you did, like pick

1050
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 2: up Seth Beer the day after Opening Day when he

1051
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: hits three home runs or whatever. You don't have to

1052
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: be that aggressive.

1053
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: I was at that game though. I know that game

1054
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: you can find I have a video. It was as

1055
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 1: actually the most exciting game I've been to. Outside I

1056
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: went to a couple World Series games, it was one

1057
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 1: of the greatest games I've ever been to. It was

1058
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:08,919
Speaker 1: National Beer Day. He hit a walk off shot. On

1059
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 1: my Twitter. You can find the video. You know, it

1060
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 1: might not be not safe for work or anything like that,

1061
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 1: because Seth Beer hit a homer on National Beer Day

1062
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 1: on opening Day for the Diamondbacks, but I get your point.

1063
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just wanted to bring it up because I

1064
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: like to bring it up for you. But otherwise, no,

1065
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 2: everything we said it's pretty prudent. Soon.

1066
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, we probably can't clip that video into this by

1067
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 1: any means or anything like that, but there you go.

1068
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: Those are the ten biggest fantasy questions for twenty twenty

1069
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,799
Speaker 1: five on our minds. But if you guys have got

1070
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 1: some other big ones, maybe we can answer them or

1071
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 1: other people can answer them. In the comments below on

1072
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 1: the YouTube side, So feel free to drop your biggest

1073
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 1: fantasy questions for the season that maybe need to be answered,

1074
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 1: or maybe you have answered some of those biggest questions.

1075
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 1: We love to hear from you guys. You guys. Also,

1076
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: speaking of hearing from, you can check out our discord.

1077
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 1: We've got a free discord Fantasypros dot com slash Chat.

1078
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 1: You can sign up today. We've got access to different

1079
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 1: baseball rooms that are out there completely free. Last year,

1080
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 1: we also did a live show called Cleaning Up. It's

1081
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 1: coming back again this year where you and the studio

1082
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: audience get to come and hang out with us, ask

1083
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 1: us questions and it gets on a podcast. We might

1084
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 1: have more offerings of those, and it's free. Plus we

1085
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: also have a premium side, so we got a lot

1086
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 1: of free offerings, but we do the home run contest

1087
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: that Kelly manages. We got the home run contest this year.

1088
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 1: We've got mock draft rooms, we've got private amas and tons.

1089
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: More So, whether you want free or you want everything,

1090
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot Com slash Chat, you can go and check

1091
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: us out today. We'd love to see you because the

1092
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 1: season is going to be here. Next thing you know it.

1093
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: Make sure you've downloaded the My Playbook and the Draft

1094
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: Wizard app get ahead of that. Plus, rankings are already

1095
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: getting curated on the site. Kelly and I both have

1096
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,879
Speaker 1: ours there. We'll have more experts as well, and when

1097
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 1: we open up the draft rooms, you guys are going

1098
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 1: to be a rock and Kelly, thanks so much for

1099
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: hanging with me on these biggest questions.

1100
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

1101
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 1: For the walky Penguin, I am the Welsh and we'll

1102
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 1: talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.

1103
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1104
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1105
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1106
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,799
Speaker 1: or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at

1107
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,760
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

1108
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB