WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Democrats Won The Argument Over The Shutdown…And Should End It + America Will Need New Political Guardrails After Trump 

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of

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<v Speaker 1>the Chuck Podcast. No, I am not in my normal studio.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm coming to you from Midtown Manhattan, because sometimes New

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<v Speaker 1>York just comes a calling a little bit of work.

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<v Speaker 1>Was participating in a few different conferences that are taking

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<v Speaker 1>place in the lovely New York City area. In the

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<v Speaker 1>world of media and advertising and digital. I will say this,

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<v Speaker 1>it is fascinating to see in all of these in

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<v Speaker 1>these different entities, how everybody markets, how AI is a

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<v Speaker 1>part of their products. Right whether they have truly empowered

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<v Speaker 1>the actual AI is an open question in my book

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<v Speaker 1>on some of these entities that are pitching AI driven marketing,

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<v Speaker 1>AI driven buying, AI driven messaging. It feels as if

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<v Speaker 1>it's like the early days in the Internet when everybody

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to show off they had a website. Hey, we've

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<v Speaker 1>got a website www. Come to our website dot com. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>There is that feeling here where just say there's a

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<v Speaker 1>I even saw. I even saw a cleaning service now

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<v Speaker 1>advertising themselves as a tech specialty cleaning service. They know

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<v Speaker 1>how to clean in the highly you know, which is,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, obviously something that maybe some companies would

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<v Speaker 1>care about. But essentially they're saying that you can, we

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<v Speaker 1>will help clean your data centers and show respect for

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<v Speaker 1>the equipment as we clean the data centers. We're experts

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<v Speaker 1>on that. So everybody trying to get the peace of this,

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<v Speaker 1>of this small, narrow, growing sector. We think it's a

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<v Speaker 1>growing sector of the economy. I think there's some concern

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<v Speaker 1>that it is a self eating it's sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>self feeding and self eating economic ecosystem that's being developed.

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<v Speaker 1>But there definitely seems to be just say, there's some

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<v Speaker 1>AI in it, and let's market it. Hey, whatever your

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<v Speaker 1>business is, claim it's AI driven. Welcome to my food truck,

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<v Speaker 1>AI driven taco recipes. Right. You can sort of feel

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<v Speaker 1>that shift as we transition in this economy. But my

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<v Speaker 1>focus is a little bit. It is a It is

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<v Speaker 1>a derivative of the shutdown showdown that we're in the

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<v Speaker 1>midst of right now, and I think the Democrats have

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out how to declare victory and get out

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<v Speaker 1>of this because I do think every day that goes

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<v Speaker 1>by now, look, i think they've gotten everything they can

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<v Speaker 1>hope to get out of this shutdown. When you are

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<v Speaker 1>on the lower ground, right and they have the lower

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<v Speaker 1>ground on this one, because it's the Republicans that propose

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<v Speaker 1>the clean continuing resolution for just an additional six weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you are choosing to do what the Democrats do,

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<v Speaker 1>you're doing it because you have a point to make,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're doing it because you're trying to bring some

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<v Speaker 1>attention to a specific issue. Right, you had Ted Cruz

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<v Speaker 1>shutting down the government to try to bring more attention

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<v Speaker 1>to the implementation of Obamacare, for better or for worse

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<v Speaker 1>on that front, and on this case, I think you

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<v Speaker 1>have you had Donald Trump trying. You know, he essentially

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<v Speaker 1>orchestrated the shutdown in nineteen and eighteen and nineteen in

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<v Speaker 1>order to bring more attention to his inability to get

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<v Speaker 1>his border wall funded at the time. So this one,

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrats say, is about healthcare and is about specifically

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<v Speaker 1>subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

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<v Speaker 1>So I know I'm going to sound like a broken

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<v Speaker 1>record here. If that truly is the reason you're doing this,

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<v Speaker 1>declare victory and open the government. And the thing is

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<v Speaker 1>is that I do think you're going to see diminishing returns.

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<v Speaker 1>It's pretty clear that you're you know, and I do

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<v Speaker 1>think that this is. This gets to the larger point

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about in my substack column this week, which

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<v Speaker 1>is how much energy do you devote to opposing Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump versus how much energy do you devote to opposing

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<v Speaker 1>a future Donald Trump? What do I mean by that? Right?

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<v Speaker 1>There's mitigation tactics to deal with what you're dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>in the moment, and then there's longer term strategies to

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<v Speaker 1>essentially try to make sure we don't have another demagogue

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<v Speaker 1>hijack a political party in our process. Again, right, Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's rise is exposed to extraordinary amounts of vulnerabilities, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it is the ability to enrich yourself while in office,

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<v Speaker 1>if it's the ability to weaponize political agencies. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is where it comes to. If you look at what

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing with the with the government shutdown, one of

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<v Speaker 1>the consistent patterns, and we've all engaged in it in

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<v Speaker 1>ways to try to create guardrails around Trump, has been

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<v Speaker 1>this assumption that shame or political or sort of generic

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<v Speaker 1>political pressure would have a real impact. Shame has had

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<v Speaker 1>no impact. In fact, that the incredible superpower Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has in some ways is not feeling shame. The access

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<v Speaker 1>Hollywood tape is sort of the best piece of evidence

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<v Speaker 1>of that that you essentially never you know, January sixth

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<v Speaker 1>is arguably the next pest piece of evidence. Maybe you

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<v Speaker 1>can flip the two and what would normally shame almost

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<v Speaker 1>any other politician in our history, including one Richard Nixon

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<v Speaker 1>shamed him into resignation, does not work with him. Right

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<v Speaker 1>If you're hoping that touching the hot stove, which this

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<v Speaker 1>government shutdown is doing, that Trump touching the hot stove

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<v Speaker 1>is going to burn his hand off. What if I

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<v Speaker 1>told you he didn't have the information. You know, there's

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<v Speaker 1>nothing in the feedback loop he is getting that tells

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<v Speaker 1>him his hand is burning, He feels no pain, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>he puts his hand on said hot stove. And so

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<v Speaker 1>if you're dealing with somebody essentially that's willing to shoot

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<v Speaker 1>the hostage, right in this case, just lay off more

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<v Speaker 1>federal government workers in the agencies that Democrats seem to

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<v Speaker 1>care more about than generically Republicans do. That that blowback

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<v Speaker 1>would somehow bother him, right because swing voters don't like

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<v Speaker 1>this in either way. But if your feedback loop is

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<v Speaker 1>all about owning the Libs and pleasing your base, well

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<v Speaker 1>then he has no Then the incentives you think would

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<v Speaker 1>work under almost any other normal pre Trumpian circumstance doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>work in this scenario. But if you're if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at it through the prism. And this is something that

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<v Speaker 1>I think Democrats have had a hard time with for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time, which is learning how to declare victory

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<v Speaker 1>even if it's a one point victory, right, learning how

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<v Speaker 1>to embrace it. Donald Trump knows how to declare victory

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<v Speaker 1>even when he loses, literally on January sixth, but on

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<v Speaker 1>even on some issues he's somehow trying to declare victory

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<v Speaker 1>in using taxpayer dollars to bail out Argentina. And by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, he's made it a quid pro quo, essentially saying,

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<v Speaker 1>if Argentina throws out Malay Hell, it will make an

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<v Speaker 1>enemy of the United States, yet another tast of our

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<v Speaker 1>demagoguery and another personalization of the presidency that erodes our

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<v Speaker 1>ability to be the moral authority on democracy around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And we have lost all of our moral authority on

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<v Speaker 1>that front, and then some going back there. But sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>when you are frustrated by a situation, you end up

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you can get so frustrated. I've had similar situations.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been a long time since I've done this, but

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<v Speaker 1>I remember punching a hole in drywall once, so mad

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<v Speaker 1>I punched a wall. I knew it was drywall. Put

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<v Speaker 1>a hole in it didn't make me feel any better.

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<v Speaker 1>For a moment, you think, wow, I'm so strong, it's drywall. Please. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>I suddenly had to patch up a hole in my wall.

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<v Speaker 1>That was pain in the ass. Then I had to

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<v Speaker 1>repaint right Then of course you realize, oh, I can't

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<v Speaker 1>just paint the patch anyway. You see where I'm going.

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<v Speaker 1>It costs yourself a whole hell of a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>work sometimes when you just want to express frustration for

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<v Speaker 1>frustration's sake. And I think we're entering that situation. And

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<v Speaker 1>every day that goes by that this shutdown goes, the

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<v Speaker 1>less it becomes about healthcare, and the more it becomes

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<v Speaker 1>about how the shutdown is impacting everyday lives, how it's

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<v Speaker 1>making Thanksgiving. You know, if we get to get close,

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<v Speaker 1>we start getting close to Thanksgiving travel and we're keeping

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<v Speaker 1>parents from their kids, grandparents from their grandkids. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>going to help anybody. And again, the base of the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican Party is going to be a lot more comfortable

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<v Speaker 1>feeling their handget, you know, letting their hand burn up

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<v Speaker 1>on the stove than any part of the Democratic Party

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<v Speaker 1>on this front. And right now you've got healthcare into

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<v Speaker 1>the forefront. You've got Republicans talking amongst themselves like this

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<v Speaker 1>is a real problem, they've got to do something about it.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got people like Marjorie Taylor Green making the ca

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<v Speaker 1>for an expansion or an extension of these healthcare subsidies.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're winning the argument. That's all you have the

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<v Speaker 1>power to do in this situation. You're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to get them to do any more than that.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you're winning the argument, then you're likely to

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<v Speaker 1>get the legislation that you're hoping for. But more importantly,

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<v Speaker 1>you're probably not going to You've at least given yourself

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<v Speaker 1>something to run on if they fail to do this.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you continue to keep the government shut down

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<v Speaker 1>thinking every day, boy, you know, some of the stupid

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<v Speaker 1>rhetoric that is leaked out on the Democratic side not

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<v Speaker 1>a good look for Chuck Schumer to basically imply, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>every day this gets better. It doesn't get better for

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of us. It may get better for your politics,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's not getting better for anybody else for the

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<v Speaker 1>government to be shut down every day. If you're participating

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<v Speaker 1>in the travel industry by train or plane, you're dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with the federal government, and you're dealing with federal workers

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<v Speaker 1>who have no promise of a paycheck coming in on time.

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<v Speaker 1>So be careful of what words you're using there on

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<v Speaker 1>that front. And so at some point you got to

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<v Speaker 1>ask yourself, what is what is dragging this on longer? Hey, look,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're congressional Republican leaders know this, and then

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<v Speaker 1>till Donald Trump engages, Republicans an't going to budget anything.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's your planning to get Donald Trump involved in

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<v Speaker 1>these talks? That's my That would be my question to Democrats,

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<v Speaker 1>what's your what's your If your goal is the healthcare subject,

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<v Speaker 1>You've got to get Donald Trump's attention. He's busy blowing

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<v Speaker 1>up votes with questionable legal authority. I would argue he

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<v Speaker 1>has yet to explain his legal authority on this, and

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<v Speaker 1>Congress has been crickets on this instead focused on the shutdown.

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<v Speaker 1>In some ways understandable, but this is you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration doesn't stop if you've shut down the government.

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<v Speaker 1>But apparently congressional oversight does that's a problem. He's doing

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<v Speaker 1>his victory lap in the Middle East. We're already seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the first signs of his big victory suddenly could come

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:21.160
<v Speaker 1>undone faster than folks realize now that Israel is already

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<v Speaker 1>backing off some of their guarantees, claiming Hamas is backed

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<v Speaker 1>off of some of their promises. If Trump wants this

0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 1>legacy achievement, the work is actually only just begun. The

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<v Speaker 1>hard work. The easy part was getting the signing ceremony

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<v Speaker 1>that he got. The hard part is getting Israel and

0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 1>Hamas to stick to the terms that you got them

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<v Speaker 1>to agree to in the moment. That's going to take

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of handholding. That's going to take a lot

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 1>of intervention. That's going to take a ton of work,

0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:57.439
<v Speaker 1>and some of it is going to take Trump himself intervening.

0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 1>Yet again, there's a reason results matter more than promises,

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:11.040
<v Speaker 1>largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years,

0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.079
<v Speaker 1>they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half

0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:18.240
<v Speaker 1>a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered

0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:21.120
<v Speaker 1>next to nothing just hoping to get away with paying

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 1>as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 1>up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.720
<v Speaker 1>awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 1>times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That

0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:37.440
<v Speaker 1>original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million,

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 1>six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more than one

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.199
<v Speaker 1>thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to deliver

0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 1>for everyday people. If you're injured, you need a lawyer,

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<v Speaker 1>you need somebody to get your back. Check out for

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<v Speaker 1>the People dot com, Slash podcast, or dial pound Law

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<v Speaker 1>Pound five two nine law on your cell phone. And

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<v Speaker 1>remember all law firms are not the same. So check

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<v Speaker 1>out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is for unless they win.

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<v Speaker 1>As you're looking at ways to know you're frustrated with

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.520
<v Speaker 1>this administration, if you're among those folks that I imagine

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>there's quite a few folks listening to this podcast that

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<v Speaker 1>are I would just ask yourself, what balance are you

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>striking here? What's more important? Trying to oppose Trump in

0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 1>any way you can right now or trying to prevent

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>another Trump from happening in the future because we do

0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 1>have some long term, bigger adjustments that have to be made.

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<v Speaker 1>Take the idea of profiting off the presidency. If this

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>essentially goes unchecked, you know it's probably going to go unpunished.

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.560
<v Speaker 1>But if it's going to go unchecked, then you're only

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 1>going to encourage other people to run for office as

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>a way to enrich themselves. That is how you go

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 1>from a political party being turned into a kleptocracy, which

0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump is done to this current Republican party. I mean,

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 1>he's openly open about it, right it is everybody. Everything

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 1>is a transaction. You want to raise money with Donald

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 1>Trump's likeness, pay the man you want to beget in

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.640
<v Speaker 1>his good graces, give him a plane. You want to

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>make sure you get what you want out of him,

0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:24.320
<v Speaker 1>you better put his face on a coin. The point

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.240
<v Speaker 1>is is that he is already turned the party into

0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>a kleptocracy. If nothing gets changed, we probably need a

0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 1>constitutional amendment because you're not going to be able to

0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>force a future president or a vice president to force

0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 1>them to put their holdings in a blind trust to

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of enforce that mechanism. Separation of powers prevents Congress

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.600
<v Speaker 1>from passing any such law from pulling that off. So

0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 1>you're going to need a constitutional amendment. It is crystal

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.800
<v Speaker 1>clear we need some sort of constitutional men. The emolument's

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:59.800
<v Speaker 1>clause was not enough. It's in there. If Congress chose

0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.040
<v Speaker 1>to use it as a way to provide some oversight,

0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 1>they could. But are we impeaching this man a third time?

0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>Do we think the impeachment process is really an effective process?

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 1>Given how it's at this point been turned into just

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:24.320
<v Speaker 1>some sort of political gambit now that isn't taken very seriously,

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>and that politicians may not fear the way that they

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 1>once that Richard Nixon actually did fear it back in

0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.680
<v Speaker 1>nineteen seventy four. So it's pretty clear we need a

0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.120
<v Speaker 1>constitutional endment. What kind of work is being done to

0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>do that. We do have a fusion of big tech

0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.680
<v Speaker 1>money and government. It is so infused. We have not

0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 1>had a relationship between titans of industry and the government

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 1>so intertwined since the nineteen teens and twenties, since the

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 1>age of the robber barons, teapot Dome, all that, you know.

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.520
<v Speaker 1>The nineteen twenties began with us losing our mind by

0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>banning alcohol right after the nineteen eighteen pandemic, and it

0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.760
<v Speaker 1>ends with the stock market crash that essentially unravels the

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 1>world economy and plants the seeds for World War two.

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>Other than that, it was a terrific decade. Well, we

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 1>have a similar situation where we have industry and government

0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 1>extraordinarily intertwined that again needs This is bigger than just

0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 1>opposing Trump. This is a systemic problem that needs some

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:43.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of constitutional intervention. I think on campaign finance that's

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:46.959
<v Speaker 1>pretty crystal clear. And at some point the voters are

0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 1>going to demand a regulatory our regulatory party parties to

0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:59.840
<v Speaker 1>actually put some sort of guardrails on big tech and

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>how it exploits or try to prevent it from exploiting

0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:12.480
<v Speaker 1>the population for either political gain or financial gain. So

0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:15.640
<v Speaker 1>you look at the different you know, I look at

0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:19.119
<v Speaker 1>my role in journalism, and I'm trying to focus on

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.720
<v Speaker 1>figuring out how can we reanimate, rebuild, and create a

0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:26.400
<v Speaker 1>better business model for local media because I think that

0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.359
<v Speaker 1>has become a foundational problem in our inment, our broken

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:35.520
<v Speaker 1>information ecosystem. I think there's so many facets here that

0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 1>need to be dealt with. Look we've got to We've

0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:43.440
<v Speaker 1>got to we're rigging our electoral lines. This mad dash

0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.040
<v Speaker 1>of the redistricting wars is actually we're taking a step

0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:50.360
<v Speaker 1>back from what was actually some momentum and progress made

0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:56.480
<v Speaker 1>to depoliticizing this process. Now we've essentially scrapped the entire

0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 1>thing and almost are overpartisanizing it. Of course, parts ship

0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 1>is how we got to such a polarized moment, which

0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:09.120
<v Speaker 1>essentially provided the blueprint for a guy like Trump to exploit.

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:11.959
<v Speaker 1>So if you're hoping to prevent the next Trump, you've

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.360
<v Speaker 1>got to figure out how to depolarize for number one,

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:20.440
<v Speaker 1>nonpartisan redistricting. Oops, we are literally going backwards on this issue.

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.159
<v Speaker 1>But this is something again that you could make a

0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 1>constitutional amendment in some form or another, and I think

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:30.560
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have to no law, no active Congress,

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:32.520
<v Speaker 1>a political act of Congress is going to deal with

0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:35.560
<v Speaker 1>this in a way that I think would would be

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:39.439
<v Speaker 1>treated fairly, not exploited for partisan gain. And then the

0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 1>other is open primaries, and I think it's about time

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to test the premise of whether taxpayer funded partisan primaries

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:50.760
<v Speaker 1>are even legal, are constitutional. I think there needs to

0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>be another look at this. But the fact is we

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>have to get rid of partisan primaries if we want

0:19:56.680 --> 0:20:00.439
<v Speaker 1>to be a functional democracy. If you don't want us

0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:03.000
<v Speaker 1>to be a functional democracy, than be my guest. Let's

0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:08.439
<v Speaker 1>let's have more partisan primaries. But the idea that the

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:13.760
<v Speaker 1>taxpayers can fund an election to decide who the head

0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 1>of a private organization is seems you know again, I

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:24.040
<v Speaker 1>guess I would apply it this way. Imagine any other

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:35.560
<v Speaker 1>private club having taxpayer funded dollars being used by some

0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:39.840
<v Speaker 1>sort of private organization to decide how their leadership works

0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:45.439
<v Speaker 1>with sort of little with no say by those folks

0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:49.960
<v Speaker 1>that are paying those taxes. So I think under any

0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:53.440
<v Speaker 1>other circumstance, Supreme Court would say it was unconstitutional. I'm

0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.640
<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out how it's not for political parties.

0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 1>And we figured out how depoliticized the Justice Department, right,

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:07.080
<v Speaker 1>it is clearly vulnerable to politicizing and weaponization. And I think,

0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:09.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you look at what happened in the

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:12.959
<v Speaker 1>nineteen you know, three of our most important constitutional amendments

0:21:12.960 --> 0:21:15.760
<v Speaker 1>in the twentieth century. We're giving women the right to vote,

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:23.399
<v Speaker 1>direct election to senators, and the income tax, and in

0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:25.719
<v Speaker 1>some ways all three of them were out of this

0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:29.800
<v Speaker 1>sort of we were growing close to being very undemocratic,

0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:36.480
<v Speaker 1>more undemocratic at the time, and we had to come up,

0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:40.360
<v Speaker 1>we had to actually add some constitutional amendments to improve

0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:47.080
<v Speaker 1>the democracy, to improve public's ability to hold the democracy

0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:52.000
<v Speaker 1>and big business accountable as well. In fact, the income

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:56.600
<v Speaker 1>tax was a part of that push. And if you know,

0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.440
<v Speaker 1>we're not quite repeating what happened in the early part

0:21:59.480 --> 0:22:02.440
<v Speaker 1>of the twentieth century, but boy, it looks awfully familiar.

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:09.080
<v Speaker 1>And the response in that era was some serious constitutional reform.

0:22:10.440 --> 0:22:12.280
<v Speaker 1>And there's a lot more energy right now on the

0:22:12.359 --> 0:22:16.120
<v Speaker 1>left being focused solely on trying to oppose a guy

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 1>that may be in office only two and a half

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:22.720
<v Speaker 1>more years that constitutionally it well, he'll only be in

0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:26.760
<v Speaker 1>office for two and a half more years. Look, it

0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:29.920
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean you capitulate to Trump, right, you don't do it.

0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:34.959
<v Speaker 1>These idiots in the corporate space have done, and in

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>academia and they've just folded right without actually testing that

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 1>the law was on their side. The law on these

0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:46.200
<v Speaker 1>media companies that have all capitulated and paid these ridiculous ransoms.

0:22:46.560 --> 0:22:50.320
<v Speaker 1>That's what they were. They were extortion, was ransom. The

0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 1>law was on their side, and they chose not to

0:22:52.359 --> 0:22:58.879
<v Speaker 1>use the law. So that's capitulation. That's not mitigation. Mitigation

0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:03.560
<v Speaker 1>is finally suit forcing his actions into the court, getting

0:23:03.560 --> 0:23:10.360
<v Speaker 1>oversight hearings, but it's also looking ahead to make sure

0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:12.840
<v Speaker 1>how do we not get into this position again. It's

0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 1>not just about rebuilding. Look, the Democratic Party has got

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:19.280
<v Speaker 1>plenty of problems on their own, but the fact is

0:23:19.320 --> 0:23:23.080
<v Speaker 1>the country was vulnerable to this. Our institutions were vulnerable

0:23:23.400 --> 0:23:27.760
<v Speaker 1>to this politicizing, to this weaponization. We thought we were

0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:30.919
<v Speaker 1>operating on shame and norms, and we had many a

0:23:31.000 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 1>president abide by shame, who could be shamed and would

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:38.160
<v Speaker 1>abide by norms. Donald Trump showed that if you were

0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:43.399
<v Speaker 1>shameless and you have, you have sort of a a

0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:47.919
<v Speaker 1>and you really are comfortable being that shameless and he

0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:50.480
<v Speaker 1>is again he's a guy that puts his hand in

0:23:50.480 --> 0:23:55.880
<v Speaker 1>the hot stove and does not feel pain. Then you've

0:23:55.880 --> 0:24:02.200
<v Speaker 1>got to build new guardrails. We've done it before and

0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:06.719
<v Speaker 1>we clearly need to do it again. So that's the

0:24:06.960 --> 0:24:09.320
<v Speaker 1>that's the basis of my substack this week. I think

0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 1>it fits pretty well here with the current situation with

0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 1>the shutdown, and you know, there is there is a

0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:22.480
<v Speaker 1>point you know right now, the fact that so many

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:24.560
<v Speaker 1>Democrats are desperately trying to make the case that this

0:24:24.640 --> 0:24:28.760
<v Speaker 1>shutdown strategy is working is just the moment that you

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:33.320
<v Speaker 1>got to say, pull ripcord. You've done enough, You've made

0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 1>your point, you've got it out there, and now it

0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:40.440
<v Speaker 1>is on them. They have made this commitment in some ways.

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 1>If they fail on this, it hands you an easy

0:24:45.119 --> 0:24:49.040
<v Speaker 1>to litigate issue in the twenty twenty six elections. All right,

0:24:49.200 --> 0:24:52.560
<v Speaker 1>speaking of twenty twenty six, they have a few sort

0:24:52.560 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 1>of a few campaign nuggets to deal with. The biggest one,

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:00.760
<v Speaker 1>of course, is main We've been talking to about Maine

0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:04.720
<v Speaker 1>for quite some time, and I do think that Janet

0:25:04.720 --> 0:25:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Mills and Graham Platner now are going to turn into

0:25:06.960 --> 0:25:14.320
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating avatars for this larger fight of old, old

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:16.600
<v Speaker 1>versus new in the Democratic Party. I think this will

0:25:16.640 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 1>be less about sort of left versus right within the

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:25.280
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party and more about old versus new symbolically the Janet.

0:25:25.359 --> 0:25:29.800
<v Speaker 1>You know the fact that Chuck Schumer, but it's give

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:31.680
<v Speaker 1>me a second here to check his age. I want

0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:33.800
<v Speaker 1>to have this exactly right. I think Chuck Schumer is

0:25:33.840 --> 0:25:36.840
<v Speaker 1>seventy eight these days. But excuse me, seventy four didn't

0:25:36.840 --> 0:25:40.119
<v Speaker 1>mean to age him. Senator Schumer, my apologies for aging you.

0:25:42.200 --> 0:25:44.560
<v Speaker 1>But when seventy four year old Chuck Schumer says, isn't

0:25:44.600 --> 0:25:47.359
<v Speaker 1>this great that they've recruited seventy seven year old Janet

0:25:47.400 --> 0:25:52.520
<v Speaker 1>Mills for us? Sense? I mean the fact that a

0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 1>party that has just dealt with a ton of sort

0:25:55.640 --> 0:26:00.439
<v Speaker 1>of age obstacles for their rising stars. Right, Nancy Loosi

0:26:01.040 --> 0:26:05.400
<v Speaker 1>staying in office for year after year after year after year,

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:08.400
<v Speaker 1>believing she alone is the only one that could lead

0:26:08.440 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats. She was a terrific leader for the House Democrats.

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:18.479
<v Speaker 1>I assume at some point House office building will feature

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:21.760
<v Speaker 1>her name. The Pelosi House Office Building is I assume

0:26:21.840 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 1>in the work somewhere. She is deserving of lots of flowers.

0:26:28.040 --> 0:26:31.760
<v Speaker 1>One of the few people to lose a speakership, you

0:26:31.800 --> 0:26:34.280
<v Speaker 1>know more, not not from inside her own party, but

0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:37.080
<v Speaker 1>for losing control and then coming back and getting the

0:26:37.119 --> 0:26:39.879
<v Speaker 1>speaker's scavel back. That doesn't happen often. It's happened before,

0:26:39.920 --> 0:26:45.360
<v Speaker 1>but not often, and so she certainly is historic in

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 1>a number of ways, including being the first woman Speaker

0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:53.280
<v Speaker 1>of the House. But this generation of leaders just just

0:26:53.720 --> 0:26:59.800
<v Speaker 1>is sticks and sticks and sticks. And the fact that

0:26:59.840 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats, what the leadership of the Democratic Party thinks

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:06.840
<v Speaker 1>is their best candidate is someone who's five years older

0:27:06.880 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 1>than the current incumbent, who's been in office since the

0:27:11.960 --> 0:27:16.080
<v Speaker 1>end of the twentieth century, seems like they're giving up

0:27:16.200 --> 0:27:20.160
<v Speaker 1>their best. The best case against Susan Collins is she's

0:27:20.200 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 1>been in office too long, and she's been there too long.

0:27:23.520 --> 0:27:27.080
<v Speaker 1>How is it that the best that the leadership of

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 1>the Democratic Party thinks the best person to knock off

0:27:30.320 --> 0:27:33.880
<v Speaker 1>an incumbent like that is somebody who's one older and

0:27:33.960 --> 0:27:42.240
<v Speaker 1>two a current statewide elected official. I think this is

0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:46.639
<v Speaker 1>going to be an extraordinarily fascinating primary in some ways,

0:27:46.640 --> 0:27:52.800
<v Speaker 1>the primary maybe maybe more have more fireworks in it

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:55.200
<v Speaker 1>than the eventual general election. Look, I think Susan Collins

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:58.160
<v Speaker 1>is in trouble regardless who she faces. But I'll tell

0:27:58.160 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 1>you this, when you're in an anti incombent environment, you

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 1>don't want to be holding holding a major office while

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:06.800
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to run as any you know, like, I

0:28:06.840 --> 0:28:10.879
<v Speaker 1>think this is a huge problem for Shared Brown in Ohio.

0:28:11.240 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 1>He is the challenger who has been in office longer

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:20.320
<v Speaker 1>than the guy he's running against right and in the

0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:24.200
<v Speaker 1>type of election where in some ways you're trying you're

0:28:24.920 --> 0:28:28.720
<v Speaker 1>as a party as a whole, you're trying to elect

0:28:28.840 --> 0:28:33.880
<v Speaker 1>new to replace old. And yet two of their biggest

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:39.880
<v Speaker 1>recruits are folks in their seventies. And if Janet Mills wins,

0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:46.239
<v Speaker 1>shall be the oldest freshman elected senator ever. It's just

0:28:46.280 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 1>after the Democrats featured the oldest elected president ever. Of course,

0:28:51.480 --> 0:28:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's going to break that record by replacing with this,

0:28:55.720 --> 0:29:01.880
<v Speaker 1>by replacing Joe Biden on that one. But it's fat

0:29:02.160 --> 0:29:05.600
<v Speaker 1>and for what it's worth, with her first day in office,

0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:13.120
<v Speaker 1>and you already have, uh, the first attack ad on

0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:16.880
<v Speaker 1>Janet Mills from Graham Platin or the Oyster Farmer. I know,

0:29:16.920 --> 0:29:18.960
<v Speaker 1>I've finally learned his first and last name. For those

0:29:18.960 --> 0:29:21.920
<v Speaker 1>of you that would keep keeping track, here here's what

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 1>the ad does. A woman in the spot itself, so

0:29:25.600 --> 0:29:28.040
<v Speaker 1>it's not the candidate detecting Janet Mills by name, but

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:30.640
<v Speaker 1>in the spot, a woman in the spot says Janet

0:29:30.640 --> 0:29:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Mills again, she was a good governor, but I think

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:37.440
<v Speaker 1>it's time for a change. So welcome to what I

0:29:37.440 --> 0:29:41.200
<v Speaker 1>think is now a new Democratic Party. Headache This is

0:29:41.280 --> 0:29:44.520
<v Speaker 1>not recruiting Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and frankly, it's

0:29:44.520 --> 0:29:47.200
<v Speaker 1>not even recruiting Shared Brown in Ohio because you could

0:29:47.320 --> 0:29:51.160
<v Speaker 1>argue that Shared Brown was I'm torn at his race.

0:29:51.200 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>I think he is the best possible candidate they could

0:29:53.200 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 1>get in this moment. Who could raise him, and he

0:29:56.360 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 1>rose raised a big chunk of money. Is whether the

0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party is going to support him. They didn't really

0:30:03.360 --> 0:30:06.080
<v Speaker 1>help him out of his jam as much two years ago.

0:30:06.160 --> 0:30:10.240
<v Speaker 1>He was very frustrated, particularly on the trans issue, how

0:30:10.360 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 1>little backup he got from the National Party to help

0:30:13.400 --> 0:30:17.080
<v Speaker 1>him out on that race. On this one, this is

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:20.040
<v Speaker 1>going to become a massive primary headache. There's going to

0:30:20.040 --> 0:30:22.640
<v Speaker 1>be a massive amount of money spent in the primary

0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:29.560
<v Speaker 1>that arguably might be better suited for the general election. But

0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>we'll see. Look one thing, and this was the subject

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:35.680
<v Speaker 1>of my substec last week. One thing we learned is

0:30:35.680 --> 0:30:41.040
<v Speaker 1>that nobody if aking Jeffries or somebody who's threatened you

0:30:41.080 --> 0:30:43.960
<v Speaker 1>as a local candidate in the name of aking Jeffries

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>or Chuck Schumer by saying the National Party is not

0:30:46.360 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 1>going to support you, is anybody going to take them seriously?

0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Graham Plattner, Are you really not going to

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:56.440
<v Speaker 1>help his candidacy if he wins the primary and knocks

0:30:56.480 --> 0:31:01.200
<v Speaker 1>off a sitting governor and a Democratic primary. He's not

0:31:01.280 --> 0:31:05.000
<v Speaker 1>going to take those threats seriously because what other states

0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:06.960
<v Speaker 1>do you have on the board, Chuck Schumer that you

0:31:07.000 --> 0:31:11.080
<v Speaker 1>can target? And look, you know, I get it. Governors

0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:17.640
<v Speaker 1>in general are incredible fundraisers, and certainly in a larger

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 1>state like North Carolina, make a lot of sense in this.

0:31:22.360 --> 0:31:25.400
<v Speaker 1>This is one of those unique cases where it may

0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:28.120
<v Speaker 1>not make the sense you think it makes on this front.

0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Don't get me wrong. There's a lot of smart people

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:35.800
<v Speaker 1>in and around Schumer world. I've known JB. Pursh a

0:31:35.840 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 1>long time, and I know the case he would make

0:31:38.080 --> 0:31:41.040
<v Speaker 1>to me on this one about oh, you don't understand

0:31:41.120 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 1>sitting governor's Chuck, I understand, I get it, I get it.

0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I do think you guys have adopted yourself quite the headache,

0:31:51.880 --> 0:31:54.520
<v Speaker 1>and it may be a headache you're gonna wish you

0:31:54.800 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 1>didn't acquire some six to eight months eight months from now.

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:05.560
<v Speaker 1>All right with that, I will leave the campaign trail.

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:07.040
<v Speaker 1>There's actually a lot more I want to get on,

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:09.440
<v Speaker 1>but hey, I've gone a good thirty seven minutes. Here,

0:32:09.520 --> 0:32:11.440
<v Speaker 1>let's sneak in a break and I'll see on the

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:13.880
<v Speaker 1>other side with my top five list and a little

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:25.960
<v Speaker 1>lass chuck. So it is Wednesday, which means I have

0:32:26.040 --> 0:32:30.520
<v Speaker 1>a top five list, top top test, top five, top

0:32:31.240 --> 0:32:36.440
<v Speaker 1>top test top thought. To have a little a little

0:32:36.480 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 1>more fun, I do want to have, you know, monthly

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 1>check ins on my on my top five Senate race flips,

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:44.960
<v Speaker 1>my top governor's race flips. But in this one, I

0:32:45.000 --> 0:32:52.200
<v Speaker 1>decided to do a top five list on comebacks. On

0:32:52.360 --> 0:32:56.520
<v Speaker 1>political comebacks of possible, there's sort of five political comebacks

0:32:56.520 --> 0:33:00.000
<v Speaker 1>that I think are reasonably viable. These are people essentially

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:05.360
<v Speaker 1>running to reclaim an office that they once held. I

0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>believe in just about every one of these scenarios, these

0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:12.840
<v Speaker 1>folks lost or were pushed out for a variety for

0:33:12.880 --> 0:33:16.160
<v Speaker 1>a variety of reasons. So my top five list is

0:33:16.240 --> 0:33:20.000
<v Speaker 1>top five. So Andrew Cuomo's doesn't make this list because

0:33:20.000 --> 0:33:24.160
<v Speaker 1>he never served as mayor, so yes, it's a political comeback,

0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:26.760
<v Speaker 1>but he's not trying to run for the same office.

0:33:27.880 --> 0:33:32.920
<v Speaker 1>But there is somebody on my top five list that

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 1>I will get to. He's in my fifth slot that

0:33:35.040 --> 0:33:38.880
<v Speaker 1>is running for his old office in twenty twenty five,

0:33:39.160 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 1>and we will find out in a mere three weeks,

0:33:42.360 --> 0:33:46.040
<v Speaker 1>perhaps a month later due to runoffs the runoff rules

0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:49.480
<v Speaker 1>in said city, where we'll see if that comeback. It's

0:33:49.520 --> 0:33:52.920
<v Speaker 1>a unique comeback opportunity. But here it is my top

0:33:53.080 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 1>five most likely political comebacks where this person can win

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:01.280
<v Speaker 1>back a seat they once held and they're essentially running

0:34:01.480 --> 0:34:04.840
<v Speaker 1>for their old office. Number one on that list somebody

0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.520
<v Speaker 1>with a very famous name that has a junior next

0:34:07.520 --> 0:34:10.760
<v Speaker 1>to it. It is Jesse Jackson junior. He of course

0:34:11.960 --> 0:34:15.799
<v Speaker 1>had his own problems that led him to have to

0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:20.760
<v Speaker 1>serve time. He essentially was misusing campaign funds for personal

0:34:20.800 --> 0:34:23.279
<v Speaker 1>gain and had to pay a price for that. He

0:34:23.360 --> 0:34:26.239
<v Speaker 1>served his time, and he now wants to run for

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:29.720
<v Speaker 1>office again, and in fact, he has an open house

0:34:29.719 --> 0:34:33.400
<v Speaker 1>seat to run for in his community. His brother, by

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:36.440
<v Speaker 1>the way, does serve in Congress right now, but he

0:34:36.480 --> 0:34:38.960
<v Speaker 1>wants to. He's going to run in the second Congressional

0:34:39.000 --> 0:34:43.000
<v Speaker 1>district in Illinois. It's the seat being vacated by congress

0:34:43.200 --> 0:34:47.240
<v Speaker 1>by Robin Kelly, who is running in that very crowded

0:34:47.320 --> 0:34:51.000
<v Speaker 1>US Senate primary to replace the retiring Dick Durbin. Look,

0:34:51.040 --> 0:34:54.800
<v Speaker 1>I think Jackson Junior. The Jackson name, the Jackson political

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:58.600
<v Speaker 1>operation is very formidable in the Chicago area. The Jackson

0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:03.680
<v Speaker 1>name means quite a bit in a positive in many

0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:11.040
<v Speaker 1>communities in Chicago. How he asks for forgiveness will matter,

0:35:11.120 --> 0:35:15.960
<v Speaker 1>and in his comeback bid he has spoken with so far,

0:35:16.120 --> 0:35:18.480
<v Speaker 1>I think with a reasonable amount of humble pie that

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:23.319
<v Speaker 1>he's been eating with it. And so of all the

0:35:23.360 --> 0:35:26.680
<v Speaker 1>comeback bids in fact that I'm going to highlight here,

0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:29.319
<v Speaker 1>I think he's the only one that's going to end

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:31.920
<v Speaker 1>up back in the office that he wants out. I

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:34.879
<v Speaker 1>think he is the best shot of anybody obviously, why

0:35:34.920 --> 0:35:37.520
<v Speaker 1>I put him number one, So Jesse Jackson Junior, I

0:35:37.520 --> 0:35:40.640
<v Speaker 1>think number one on the list of most likely to

0:35:40.719 --> 0:35:43.640
<v Speaker 1>get their old job back on that front, So number

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:47.240
<v Speaker 1>two on that list is going to be I'm putting

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:50.240
<v Speaker 1>Corey Bush. She is running for her old seatback against

0:35:50.239 --> 0:35:52.319
<v Speaker 1>the person that defeated her in a primary in Wesley Bell.

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:56.920
<v Speaker 1>I think sort of the reason do I think she

0:35:57.160 --> 0:36:00.719
<v Speaker 1>ends up losing? I do. I think it was a

0:36:00.760 --> 0:36:03.959
<v Speaker 1>bit of her style that rubbed her constituents the wrong way.

0:36:04.000 --> 0:36:08.160
<v Speaker 1>She was not seen as very good at basic constituency services.

0:36:10.000 --> 0:36:12.720
<v Speaker 1>But the fact that this is so fresh, so recent.

0:36:13.920 --> 0:36:17.799
<v Speaker 1>You are also going to have a Democratic electorate. I

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:20.600
<v Speaker 1>think that is looking to be more feisty and wants

0:36:20.600 --> 0:36:23.240
<v Speaker 1>to be a bit more confrontational. That actually could help

0:36:23.960 --> 0:36:26.799
<v Speaker 1>Corey Bush in that race. So I think you have

0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:29.880
<v Speaker 1>to put her in the number two slot of most

0:36:30.040 --> 0:36:33.399
<v Speaker 1>likely to get her to get her old job back.

0:36:34.680 --> 0:36:40.920
<v Speaker 1>It's and it it could the stuff that worked against

0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:43.520
<v Speaker 1>her in her last primary may not work against her

0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:46.160
<v Speaker 1>as strongly as it did the first time. Number three

0:36:46.400 --> 0:36:49.400
<v Speaker 1>on my list is a candidacy that it appears to

0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:52.160
<v Speaker 1>be more likely than not. What's funny is that there

0:36:52.200 --> 0:36:55.520
<v Speaker 1>were actually two people in this race that could have

0:36:55.600 --> 0:36:59.120
<v Speaker 1>qualified in this spot, but I wouldn't have put both

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:01.680
<v Speaker 1>of them in my third set. And it's Johnny Sonunu.

0:37:02.120 --> 0:37:05.400
<v Speaker 1>He's a former US senator. He is being recruited heavily

0:37:05.480 --> 0:37:09.080
<v Speaker 1>to run again to try to get back into the

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:14.160
<v Speaker 1>US Senate. He lost to Jean Shaheen. This time he's

0:37:14.239 --> 0:37:16.640
<v Speaker 1>running to try to you would be running to replace him. Now.

0:37:16.640 --> 0:37:18.840
<v Speaker 1>He hasn't announced yet, so you could say he's a

0:37:18.880 --> 0:37:21.800
<v Speaker 1>probable candidate. He of course would be in a primary

0:37:21.840 --> 0:37:24.680
<v Speaker 1>with Scott Brown, who is also a former US senator

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:27.520
<v Speaker 1>who would be running for the second time to try

0:37:27.560 --> 0:37:30.399
<v Speaker 1>to win this specific seat. He actually ran against jeen

0:37:33.680 --> 0:37:37.480
<v Speaker 1>a cycle ago and did not win. Republicans are not

0:37:37.680 --> 0:37:40.319
<v Speaker 1>very bullish on Brown's ability to win this open seat

0:37:40.320 --> 0:37:43.120
<v Speaker 1>against the likely Democratic nomine Chris Pappus, but they're a

0:37:43.120 --> 0:37:45.120
<v Speaker 1>lot more bullish on Sonunu. And part of it is

0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:48.960
<v Speaker 1>Sonunu's brother is extraordinarily popular, the now former governor, Chris Snunu.

0:37:49.360 --> 0:37:53.080
<v Speaker 1>He is somebody that seemed to navigate navigate the cranky

0:37:53.440 --> 0:37:56.600
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire Independent as well as anybody I've seen in

0:37:56.640 --> 0:38:00.680
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire in sometime, and he knew how to push

0:38:00.760 --> 0:38:02.279
<v Speaker 1>back on Trump and he needed to, and he knew

0:38:02.320 --> 0:38:04.680
<v Speaker 1>how to look. I think there's some people on the

0:38:04.760 --> 0:38:07.440
<v Speaker 1>left that feel like he was too supportive at times

0:38:07.440 --> 0:38:09.920
<v Speaker 1>of Trump. But if you're actually going to be successful independent,

0:38:10.680 --> 0:38:12.800
<v Speaker 1>you got to know when to work with each side

0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:15.719
<v Speaker 1>and when to oppose each side, and you got to

0:38:15.800 --> 0:38:20.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of be sort of consistent with yourself and pulling

0:38:20.320 --> 0:38:23.720
<v Speaker 1>that off. The New brand is very strong in that state,

0:38:24.840 --> 0:38:28.480
<v Speaker 1>and I think uh Johnson, who arguably lost because he

0:38:28.560 --> 0:38:31.160
<v Speaker 1>was portrayed as being much too conservative for the state

0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:33.759
<v Speaker 1>some four years ago. I think in a weird way,

0:38:35.120 --> 0:38:39.640
<v Speaker 1>Trump has redefined conservatism, uh and in a way that

0:38:39.760 --> 0:38:43.560
<v Speaker 1>is more it is more of more of an online

0:38:43.640 --> 0:38:46.520
<v Speaker 1>you know too. Conservative is now seen as being sort

0:38:46.560 --> 0:38:52.279
<v Speaker 1>of more maga than it is more ideological. And so

0:38:52.400 --> 0:38:57.839
<v Speaker 1>the ideological problems that were Johnny Sunus do Johnny because

0:38:57.840 --> 0:39:00.080
<v Speaker 1>his father was a John was Johnson, who just for

0:39:00.080 --> 0:39:06.480
<v Speaker 1>an initial is not as I think, is not as

0:39:06.640 --> 0:39:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the same deal breaker as it was in his original

0:39:10.280 --> 0:39:13.200
<v Speaker 1>race against Shaheen, which was a massive race. So I

0:39:13.200 --> 0:39:14.839
<v Speaker 1>put him in the number three column. I mean think

0:39:15.000 --> 0:39:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the only reason he's not higher on the list is

0:39:16.600 --> 0:39:17.919
<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be a tough year for

0:39:18.680 --> 0:39:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Republicans generically in New Hampshire's the type of state that

0:39:22.040 --> 0:39:25.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of moves, you know, if the country's leaning left,

0:39:25.080 --> 0:39:26.880
<v Speaker 1>new Hampshire's going to lean left. If the country's going

0:39:26.920 --> 0:39:29.720
<v Speaker 1>to lean right, as we've seen, New Hampshire is still

0:39:29.800 --> 0:39:32.880
<v Speaker 1>a bit more slightly more center left than the country

0:39:32.960 --> 0:39:35.560
<v Speaker 1>or else Trump would have carried that state in twenty

0:39:35.600 --> 0:39:40.160
<v Speaker 1>fourty didn't. But if you see if basically the generic

0:39:40.239 --> 0:39:44.720
<v Speaker 1>battle it's tied nationally, then there's an opening for someone

0:39:44.760 --> 0:39:47.680
<v Speaker 1>like Sanunu and his brand name may help in that one.

0:39:47.719 --> 0:39:49.879
<v Speaker 1>So he's number three, number four, the less I'm gonna

0:39:49.880 --> 0:39:53.600
<v Speaker 1>put Shared Brown. The man raised eight million dollars in

0:39:53.640 --> 0:39:59.600
<v Speaker 1>six weeks. Incredibly formidable. He knows Ohio, he knows how

0:39:59.600 --> 0:40:03.600
<v Speaker 1>to do it. He's won in mid the midterm, the

0:40:03.600 --> 0:40:06.920
<v Speaker 1>midterm environment. You know, his one loss was in the

0:40:07.840 --> 0:40:10.680
<v Speaker 1>was in that presidential environment where more Trump and Vance

0:40:10.760 --> 0:40:13.680
<v Speaker 1>voters showed up. So I think this is he certainly

0:40:13.719 --> 0:40:16.520
<v Speaker 1>has a shot at this. I'm I think I think

0:40:16.560 --> 0:40:19.280
<v Speaker 1>he's got an easy path to forty seven, an extraordinarily

0:40:19.360 --> 0:40:24.560
<v Speaker 1>hard path to fifty percent plus one if he somehow,

0:40:24.880 --> 0:40:27.480
<v Speaker 1>if he's if there was a libertarian candidate taking two

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:32.359
<v Speaker 1>or three points and winning number was forty seven point

0:40:32.440 --> 0:40:36.120
<v Speaker 1>five to forty eight point five, that's how Shared Brown

0:40:36.120 --> 0:40:40.760
<v Speaker 1>wins this race. We'll see what the eventual general election

0:40:40.840 --> 0:40:44.799
<v Speaker 1>ballot looks like. But that's but I put Shared Brown

0:40:44.880 --> 0:40:47.960
<v Speaker 1>number Fourtheless, in my fifth spot, I'm having a little

0:40:47.960 --> 0:40:50.880
<v Speaker 1>fun with this. I do not necessarily believe this is

0:40:50.880 --> 0:40:53.160
<v Speaker 1>the fifth most likely person. In fact, there are a

0:40:53.200 --> 0:40:56.799
<v Speaker 1>whole bunch of other formers trying to get their trying

0:40:56.800 --> 0:41:01.480
<v Speaker 1>to get their seats back here some interesting members of Congress,

0:41:01.560 --> 0:41:04.840
<v Speaker 1>or in fact, the Byron Donalds. The seat that Byron

0:41:04.880 --> 0:41:08.560
<v Speaker 1>Donalds is vacating in Florida has former New York Member

0:41:08.600 --> 0:41:11.320
<v Speaker 1>of Congress Chris Collins running in the primary, former North

0:41:11.320 --> 0:41:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Carolina Member of Congress Madison Cawthorne running in the primary,

0:41:15.080 --> 0:41:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and neither one of them are likely to actually get

0:41:18.120 --> 0:41:20.560
<v Speaker 1>close to winning that seat, which is why I didn't

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:23.600
<v Speaker 1>put him on the list. Jerry carl is thinking about

0:41:23.640 --> 0:41:26.680
<v Speaker 1>running for his old seat in Alabama. We shall see there,

0:41:27.640 --> 0:41:30.200
<v Speaker 1>So you do have a few other formers out there,

0:41:30.200 --> 0:41:35.200
<v Speaker 1>but the former and also Tommy Thompson has said he's

0:41:35.239 --> 0:41:37.239
<v Speaker 1>eighty five and he said he may want to run

0:41:37.239 --> 0:41:39.400
<v Speaker 1>for a fifth term for governor. I think I mentioned

0:41:39.400 --> 0:41:42.640
<v Speaker 1>it last week, but I don't think he ends up running,

0:41:42.760 --> 0:41:44.520
<v Speaker 1>which is why I didn't have a little fun put

0:41:44.560 --> 0:41:46.040
<v Speaker 1>on the list. But the person I'm putting on the

0:41:46.080 --> 0:41:50.839
<v Speaker 1>list is Javier Suarez. My hometown of Miami, it's actually

0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:53.600
<v Speaker 1>the city of Miami Mayor. I actually never lived in

0:41:53.640 --> 0:41:57.400
<v Speaker 1>the city of Miami. I grew up in the unincorporated

0:41:57.480 --> 0:42:02.720
<v Speaker 1>Miami Dade County. Was what you put when you mailed

0:42:02.719 --> 0:42:05.239
<v Speaker 1>a letter to my house, It was Miami, Florida. That's

0:42:05.239 --> 0:42:09.160
<v Speaker 1>what was used. I was in Kendall, so we didn't

0:42:09.200 --> 0:42:11.000
<v Speaker 1>have to have a town or a city. There are

0:42:11.520 --> 0:42:14.320
<v Speaker 1>I think we're up to thirty three municipalities within Miami

0:42:14.360 --> 0:42:16.480
<v Speaker 1>Dade County. When I grew up, it was just Dade County.

0:42:16.520 --> 0:42:21.279
<v Speaker 1>They added to Miami for branding reasons. Frankly understandable. Right,

0:42:21.400 --> 0:42:27.520
<v Speaker 1>La County is La right, so why not? And Jamier

0:42:27.560 --> 0:42:30.120
<v Speaker 1>Suarez is not only trying to get his old seatback.

0:42:30.560 --> 0:42:33.000
<v Speaker 1>He was mayor of Miami from eighty five to ninety three,

0:42:33.080 --> 0:42:36.880
<v Speaker 1>and briefly for about for a two month period in

0:42:37.000 --> 0:42:40.960
<v Speaker 1>ninety seven, after the most corrupt mayor or election that

0:42:41.040 --> 0:42:42.719
<v Speaker 1>the city of Miami's ever had. I'll get to that

0:42:42.760 --> 0:42:45.279
<v Speaker 1>in a minute. But he's actually running to replace his son,

0:42:45.760 --> 0:42:50.280
<v Speaker 1>Francis Suarez, whose term limited. Of course, you remember Francisuarez

0:42:50.440 --> 0:42:55.280
<v Speaker 1>from his days as a presidential candidate briefly in twenty

0:42:55.320 --> 0:42:59.720
<v Speaker 1>twenty four. I suspect he is. It wouldn't be shocked

0:42:59.719 --> 0:43:02.520
<v Speaker 1>if he found his way into the Trump cabinet or

0:43:02.600 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 1>found his way into an ambassador's ship. He toyed with

0:43:06.680 --> 0:43:08.640
<v Speaker 1>the idea of running for governor, but he and DeSantis

0:43:08.680 --> 0:43:12.759
<v Speaker 1>have not seen eye to eye, although being anti DeSantis

0:43:12.800 --> 0:43:16.640
<v Speaker 1>hasn't been an issue in Trump world. Right. If you

0:43:16.760 --> 0:43:19.360
<v Speaker 1>told me, though, that Suarez was the running mate for

0:43:19.400 --> 0:43:26.840
<v Speaker 1>Byron Donalds would totally shock me on that front. But

0:43:26.920 --> 0:43:29.080
<v Speaker 1>he's a pretty ambitious guy, so I don't know if

0:43:29.239 --> 0:43:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Donalds would want to have would trust him as a

0:43:33.080 --> 0:43:37.240
<v Speaker 1>running mate, though. I do think having South Miami ties

0:43:37.600 --> 0:43:41.319
<v Speaker 1>might matter if the general election is indeed going to

0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:43.280
<v Speaker 1>be competitive and closed, and I think that's an open question,

0:43:44.040 --> 0:43:46.440
<v Speaker 1>not one hundred percent convinced it will be. Look, I

0:43:46.440 --> 0:43:48.680
<v Speaker 1>think there are two Democrats that might be able to

0:43:48.680 --> 0:43:51.840
<v Speaker 1>make this a more competitive various David Jolly is certainly

0:43:52.120 --> 0:43:55.240
<v Speaker 1>a qualified candidate, the former Republican congressman now switching parties

0:43:55.280 --> 0:43:58.840
<v Speaker 1>as a Democrat. And Jerry Demmings, the mayor of Orlando

0:43:59.280 --> 0:44:02.800
<v Speaker 1>of Orange County. Excuse me the colonomy that encompasses Orlando

0:44:03.239 --> 0:44:06.160
<v Speaker 1>is thinking about running In theory, either one of them

0:44:06.200 --> 0:44:10.000
<v Speaker 1>could potentially be a strong candidate, but boy, they does

0:44:10.040 --> 0:44:13.600
<v Speaker 1>Donald have a huge, huge head start. So but what's

0:44:13.640 --> 0:44:17.120
<v Speaker 1>interesting about there's like over a dozen candidates running for

0:44:17.520 --> 0:44:24.680
<v Speaker 1>Miami mayor and including a couple of people who corrupt

0:44:24.840 --> 0:44:30.040
<v Speaker 1>pasts have collided and intertwined in the past. Joe Caroyo,

0:44:31.840 --> 0:44:36.280
<v Speaker 1>who was UH and UH, Javier Suarez now Jaber Suarez,

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:39.319
<v Speaker 1>the father of Francisoirez. Francisuirez has not endorsed his father.

0:44:40.719 --> 0:44:43.520
<v Speaker 1>He wishes him well, is what he said, but he

0:44:43.640 --> 0:44:49.000
<v Speaker 1>is not endorsed. Jabier Suirez won the most corrupt mayor's race.

0:44:49.040 --> 0:44:54.000
<v Speaker 1>When you when you've heard about voter fraud issues. Suarez

0:44:54.080 --> 0:44:56.600
<v Speaker 1>a Republican and this is this was all republican and

0:44:56.640 --> 0:45:00.200
<v Speaker 1>republican crime there in the city of Miami. He a

0:45:00.239 --> 0:45:05.240
<v Speaker 1>race in nineteen ninety seven. Basically by he was never

0:45:06.680 --> 0:45:09.680
<v Speaker 1>They could never say that the candidate himself knew this happened,

0:45:09.719 --> 0:45:14.000
<v Speaker 1>but they did prove that somebody on his behalf stuffed

0:45:14.000 --> 0:45:17.080
<v Speaker 1>the ballot box of absentee ballots. He basically won because

0:45:17.360 --> 0:45:20.400
<v Speaker 1>of absentee ballots, and they were clearly fraudulent to the

0:45:20.400 --> 0:45:24.960
<v Speaker 1>point of the election was overturned and he was not

0:45:25.160 --> 0:45:29.920
<v Speaker 1>allowed to serve as mayor. Joe Kroyo, who himself has

0:45:30.239 --> 0:45:35.960
<v Speaker 1>just lost a fifty plus million dollar civil suit, has

0:45:36.000 --> 0:45:41.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of avoided any official criminal indictments, but has all

0:45:41.040 --> 0:45:45.480
<v Speaker 1>sorts of ethical liabilities that have that have followed him

0:45:45.480 --> 0:45:47.920
<v Speaker 1>for years. Was the other candidate in that race back

0:45:47.960 --> 0:45:51.040
<v Speaker 1>in ninety seven. Well, Joe Kroyo is dealing is running again.

0:45:51.080 --> 0:45:53.840
<v Speaker 1>There's just all It doesn't appear any of these guys

0:45:53.840 --> 0:45:56.239
<v Speaker 1>are are going to win. But if you're looking for

0:45:56.880 --> 0:46:00.480
<v Speaker 1>a good old fashioned crazy race in Miami, that scott

0:46:01.440 --> 0:46:04.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of corrupt tentacles sort of in it. That

0:46:05.520 --> 0:46:07.600
<v Speaker 1>is a bit of the old Miami. And you know,

0:46:07.880 --> 0:46:12.120
<v Speaker 1>it bums me out because I do think we're in general,

0:46:12.640 --> 0:46:14.800
<v Speaker 1>the city and the County of Miami have been trying

0:46:14.840 --> 0:46:19.920
<v Speaker 1>to move away from its reputation as being a bit

0:46:20.040 --> 0:46:23.160
<v Speaker 1>corrupt in different parts, in different cities. And when you

0:46:23.160 --> 0:46:27.960
<v Speaker 1>have thirty three municipalities, these small little, you know, enclaves

0:46:28.000 --> 0:46:34.640
<v Speaker 1>within the county that frankly have been abused by ambitious

0:46:34.640 --> 0:46:37.759
<v Speaker 1>officeholders who just want to do enrich themselves. But it's

0:46:38.080 --> 0:46:40.240
<v Speaker 1>it's like my friends in Chicago and in Cook County

0:46:40.239 --> 0:46:44.040
<v Speaker 1>who always were in New Orleans and in Louisiana. You're

0:46:44.040 --> 0:46:46.760
<v Speaker 1>always sort of running away from your reputation from corruption,

0:46:46.840 --> 0:46:48.640
<v Speaker 1>and every time you think you turn the corner, then

0:46:48.680 --> 0:46:54.680
<v Speaker 1>somebody essentially does it again, and only sullies the entire

0:46:54.760 --> 0:46:58.759
<v Speaker 1>reputation of the area. I imagine that there's sort of

0:46:59.280 --> 0:47:01.640
<v Speaker 1>going to be some are as fatigued. That doesn't that

0:47:01.840 --> 0:47:05.319
<v Speaker 1>also hurts Javier Suarez. But I do think the fact

0:47:05.360 --> 0:47:07.719
<v Speaker 1>that he was involved in the worst in the most

0:47:07.800 --> 0:47:10.560
<v Speaker 1>documented case of voter fraud that we ever had again

0:47:10.880 --> 0:47:14.360
<v Speaker 1>absentee ballots on the Republican side of the aisle for

0:47:14.440 --> 0:47:18.240
<v Speaker 1>those of you keeping keeping score, But he is fifth

0:47:18.239 --> 0:47:22.080
<v Speaker 1>on my list of most likely to be able to

0:47:22.760 --> 0:47:26.240
<v Speaker 1>win a comeback to an old office that they once held.

0:47:26.800 --> 0:47:29.680
<v Speaker 1>All right, that little trip down memory lane. I hope

0:47:29.680 --> 0:47:32.160
<v Speaker 1>you enjoyed that top five lists. So the top five

0:47:32.239 --> 0:47:36.320
<v Speaker 1>most like lead political comebacks. Jesse Jackson, Junior, Corey Bush,

0:47:36.600 --> 0:47:42.080
<v Speaker 1>Johnny Sinunu, Shared Brown and won Javier Suarez for the

0:47:42.120 --> 0:47:56.719
<v Speaker 1>city of Miami. Theyre all right, let's do some ass

0:47:56.760 --> 0:48:02.600
<v Speaker 1>chuck as choke, all right, let's do some ask check.

0:48:02.640 --> 0:48:04.359
<v Speaker 1>This one comes from Frank and he says, hey, check.

0:48:04.400 --> 0:48:07.040
<v Speaker 1>I always enjoy when you mentioned Seminole County or anything

0:48:07.120 --> 0:48:11.040
<v Speaker 1>around Florida. Seminole County, that's where my mother lives. He goes,

0:48:11.080 --> 0:48:13.040
<v Speaker 1>I grew up near Lake Jessup, but now live in

0:48:13.160 --> 0:48:15.920
<v Speaker 1>Louden County. There you go Virginia. So this is my

0:48:15.960 --> 0:48:19.360
<v Speaker 1>first commonwealth wide election. So I watched last week's Virginia

0:48:19.360 --> 0:48:21.960
<v Speaker 1>Gooba of toial debate closely. What stood out was how

0:48:22.000 --> 0:48:24.319
<v Speaker 1>the moderators held the candidates accountable, pressing them when they

0:48:24.400 --> 0:48:27.279
<v Speaker 1>dodged questions. Is someone familiar with how presidential debates are run,

0:48:27.600 --> 0:48:29.279
<v Speaker 1>do you think that same approach could work at the

0:48:29.360 --> 0:48:31.480
<v Speaker 1>national level or are there too many rules and behind

0:48:31.520 --> 0:48:34.759
<v Speaker 1>the scenes constraints that prevent it. Thanks Frank. You know,

0:48:35.120 --> 0:48:37.840
<v Speaker 1>it's funny. I've been involved in both presidential debates, and

0:48:39.360 --> 0:48:44.239
<v Speaker 1>in fact, i've this is the first time I've not

0:48:44.440 --> 0:48:48.040
<v Speaker 1>moderated a debate in Virginia governor. I think now, going

0:48:48.120 --> 0:48:53.040
<v Speaker 1>some fifteen years, I've moderated quite a few of the

0:48:53.120 --> 0:48:57.560
<v Speaker 1>Virginia governor debates and quite a few Virginia Senate debates.

0:48:58.280 --> 0:49:00.520
<v Speaker 1>And these two candids had a hard time agreeing to

0:49:00.560 --> 0:49:03.760
<v Speaker 1>many debates. This is becoming a larger problem in general.

0:49:04.239 --> 0:49:10.719
<v Speaker 1>But for the most part, you know, the fewer people involved,

0:49:10.719 --> 0:49:13.359
<v Speaker 1>the better chance you have to do this. And if

0:49:13.640 --> 0:49:16.000
<v Speaker 1>my understanding in this debate is that there were sort

0:49:16.000 --> 0:49:19.040
<v Speaker 1>of fewer constraints, there wasn't You didn't have like multiple

0:49:19.080 --> 0:49:21.319
<v Speaker 1>media partners where you got to have a whole bunch

0:49:21.320 --> 0:49:24.279
<v Speaker 1>of people ask questions, right, That sort of takes up

0:49:24.320 --> 0:49:28.400
<v Speaker 1>potential follow up time. That's number one. But in general,

0:49:29.440 --> 0:49:33.239
<v Speaker 1>the candidates themselves don't fight like in some ways. I've

0:49:33.239 --> 0:49:35.200
<v Speaker 1>always been able to get what I've wanted out of

0:49:35.200 --> 0:49:37.560
<v Speaker 1>most of these debates and been able to make sure

0:49:38.200 --> 0:49:41.200
<v Speaker 1>I've had the ability to do follow ups pretty closely.

0:49:41.320 --> 0:49:45.479
<v Speaker 1>I did the Hogan also Brooks debate in twenty twenty four,

0:49:46.600 --> 0:49:48.960
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of the debates in the DMV I've

0:49:48.960 --> 0:49:51.440
<v Speaker 1>had the opportunity to do, and I've enjoyed them a lot.

0:49:51.520 --> 0:49:56.440
<v Speaker 1>On the presidential level, the campaigns litigate everything beforehand, and

0:49:56.520 --> 0:50:00.320
<v Speaker 1>so you will get you know, they will try to

0:50:00.360 --> 0:50:04.640
<v Speaker 1>get in the specifics of that. The beauty of the

0:50:04.680 --> 0:50:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Presidential Commission debates, although we may not have it, is

0:50:07.960 --> 0:50:09.840
<v Speaker 1>that the Commission sort of was able to sort of

0:50:10.520 --> 0:50:13.320
<v Speaker 1>hold firmer. Right now that you're going to pit media

0:50:13.360 --> 0:50:16.319
<v Speaker 1>companies against each other in this, it's going to be

0:50:17.200 --> 0:50:21.680
<v Speaker 1>a you know, sort of a war that ends up

0:50:21.680 --> 0:50:26.200
<v Speaker 1>benefiting the candidates, and it takes takes out the ability

0:50:26.239 --> 0:50:30.240
<v Speaker 1>of the moderator to be anything more than a mannequin

0:50:30.920 --> 0:50:35.480
<v Speaker 1>which is which is my concern. But look, I watched

0:50:35.520 --> 0:50:37.800
<v Speaker 1>bits and pizza of that debate as well, and I

0:50:37.880 --> 0:50:40.439
<v Speaker 1>think the moderators did their best. It's never helpful when

0:50:41.440 --> 0:50:43.960
<v Speaker 1>when one of the candidates just has no intention of

0:50:43.960 --> 0:50:47.760
<v Speaker 1>abiding by the rules. Uh and it's it really sucks

0:50:47.800 --> 0:50:50.120
<v Speaker 1>when that happens, because you, as the moderator, become the

0:50:50.160 --> 0:50:55.440
<v Speaker 1>schoolmar and the time cop and the pleas and the this,

0:50:55.560 --> 0:50:57.720
<v Speaker 1>and you want to be polite, you know, I always

0:50:57.760 --> 0:51:01.360
<v Speaker 1>you know a lot of people are watching, and you know,

0:51:01.360 --> 0:51:03.239
<v Speaker 1>as a moderator, I've always viewed it more as an

0:51:03.280 --> 0:51:06.400
<v Speaker 1>umpire rule, which is I never wanted my name mentioned

0:51:07.120 --> 0:51:10.480
<v Speaker 1>until paragraph five or six, if you're if you're in

0:51:10.520 --> 0:51:12.960
<v Speaker 1>paragraph one. I feel that way. Feel the way about

0:51:12.960 --> 0:51:16.400
<v Speaker 1>debate moderating the way I feel about UH NBA refereeing,

0:51:16.920 --> 0:51:20.440
<v Speaker 1>NFL refereeing, baseball umpiring. If I know the name of

0:51:20.480 --> 0:51:23.120
<v Speaker 1>the referee or the umpire, then you are way too

0:51:23.200 --> 0:51:26.960
<v Speaker 1>involved in the in the game, right. You know, it's

0:51:27.000 --> 0:51:29.960
<v Speaker 1>not good that I know who that one of the

0:51:29.960 --> 0:51:31.960
<v Speaker 1>most important NBA refs out there is a guy named

0:51:31.960 --> 0:51:35.200
<v Speaker 1>Scott Foster. I don't you know? That's bad? Right? That

0:51:35.239 --> 0:51:37.320
<v Speaker 1>means there's been a lot of analysis about how Scott

0:51:37.360 --> 0:51:41.799
<v Speaker 1>Foster covered UH does games. So it is, it is,

0:51:43.880 --> 0:51:46.440
<v Speaker 1>it is. I don't think that should be. You know,

0:51:46.719 --> 0:51:51.000
<v Speaker 1>it's the candidate's debating, not the moderator involved in the debate. Right,

0:51:51.239 --> 0:51:54.000
<v Speaker 1>In some ways they're trying to uh, they're trying to

0:51:54.480 --> 0:51:59.879
<v Speaker 1>surface information and surface a conversation. Look, I think they

0:52:00.120 --> 0:52:02.560
<v Speaker 1>but you know, ultimately a debate only works if the

0:52:02.560 --> 0:52:05.360
<v Speaker 1>candidates accept the premise. And I think the difficulty that

0:52:05.440 --> 0:52:07.239
<v Speaker 1>my friends had in that Virginia debates, he had one

0:52:07.239 --> 0:52:12.840
<v Speaker 1>of the candidates that simply wanted to just not not allowed,

0:52:13.040 --> 0:52:16.320
<v Speaker 1>was trying to rattle the other candidate. I understood her strategy.

0:52:16.360 --> 0:52:18.960
<v Speaker 1>This is winsterm Earl series. I understood her strategy, and

0:52:19.000 --> 0:52:21.839
<v Speaker 1>trying to rattle's what you do when you're behind. I mean,

0:52:21.880 --> 0:52:24.799
<v Speaker 1>I don't, I sort of I get the strategy. I don't.

0:52:24.920 --> 0:52:27.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to condemn it, but it made the

0:52:27.080 --> 0:52:30.319
<v Speaker 1>moderator's job that much harder. All right. Next question comes

0:52:30.320 --> 0:52:34.360
<v Speaker 1>from anonymous. Hey, there, I endow your take on the

0:52:34.360 --> 0:52:36.320
<v Speaker 1>events these days. Thank you. I have a major issue

0:52:36.320 --> 0:52:39.240
<v Speaker 1>with the Hatch Act violation by posting political and partisan

0:52:39.280 --> 0:52:43.919
<v Speaker 1>notices on a federal site. How about even how about

0:52:43.960 --> 0:52:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Christy no trying to post video messages at airports? Anyway,

0:52:48.920 --> 0:52:51.680
<v Speaker 1>what are the legal repercussions when leaders sanctioned these postings?

0:52:51.719 --> 0:52:55.080
<v Speaker 1>The OSC complaint site seems to have been taken off line.

0:52:55.120 --> 0:52:58.560
<v Speaker 1>So what recourse do we have as citizens? Well, let

0:52:58.600 --> 0:53:00.720
<v Speaker 1>me do a little check. What happened to Kelly Conway

0:53:00.760 --> 0:53:03.520
<v Speaker 1>when she violated the Hatch Act. I believe she got

0:53:04.880 --> 0:53:08.200
<v Speaker 1>I believe they that the OSC found that she repeatedly

0:53:08.280 --> 0:53:15.600
<v Speaker 1>violated the Hatch Act, but there was no punishment. The

0:53:15.800 --> 0:53:19.400
<v Speaker 1>Office of the Special Counsel recommended her removal from federal service.

0:53:21.200 --> 0:53:23.839
<v Speaker 1>But then once she left government, it's not like you

0:53:23.840 --> 0:53:27.560
<v Speaker 1>could discipline her, and they and the White House didn't

0:53:27.560 --> 0:53:30.200
<v Speaker 1>accept the premise it this is one of these things

0:53:30.239 --> 0:53:33.799
<v Speaker 1>The Hatch Act is norms. The Hatch Act really isn't

0:53:33.960 --> 0:53:37.480
<v Speaker 1>very well enforced, right. It is one of those that

0:53:37.640 --> 0:53:40.520
<v Speaker 1>the it's like and it's it's almost held over the

0:53:40.560 --> 0:53:43.880
<v Speaker 1>heads of people more like impeachment. You hope that the

0:53:44.000 --> 0:53:47.480
<v Speaker 1>shame of violating it, like, hey, you know, we actually

0:53:47.480 --> 0:53:50.840
<v Speaker 1>have this law that says you can't play you can't

0:53:50.880 --> 0:53:55.160
<v Speaker 1>practice politics while serving use your federal office for to

0:53:55.280 --> 0:53:59.560
<v Speaker 1>advance your political agenda blatantly right, And look, it's a

0:53:59.680 --> 0:54:02.680
<v Speaker 1>this is somewhat subjective, but we had sort of this

0:54:02.920 --> 0:54:07.560
<v Speaker 1>third party, the Office of Special Council. Her violation, you know,

0:54:08.440 --> 0:54:10.600
<v Speaker 1>was just simply talking about politics, and she was in

0:54:10.640 --> 0:54:16.520
<v Speaker 1>an I have a tad more empathy for advisors in

0:54:16.600 --> 0:54:19.160
<v Speaker 1>the West Wing on the Hatch Act than I do

0:54:19.320 --> 0:54:22.239
<v Speaker 1>for cabinet secretaries. Like to me, there's no gray area

0:54:22.280 --> 0:54:25.000
<v Speaker 1>at all. You can you can make some gray area

0:54:25.800 --> 0:54:30.560
<v Speaker 1>arguments around West Wing advisors who are constantly sort of

0:54:30.600 --> 0:54:34.520
<v Speaker 1>in their their political appointees, and their only political appointees.

0:54:34.520 --> 0:54:36.480
<v Speaker 1>They're not a percent of confirmation, you kind of know

0:54:36.520 --> 0:54:40.120
<v Speaker 1>their political appointee. They're there to defend the politics of

0:54:40.120 --> 0:54:43.560
<v Speaker 1>the administration. Anyway, I do think it's a it's it's

0:54:43.840 --> 0:54:46.600
<v Speaker 1>it's a bit more gray area than than than maybe

0:54:46.600 --> 0:54:49.360
<v Speaker 1>some of her political opponents want to admit. But the

0:54:49.360 --> 0:54:53.560
<v Speaker 1>point is is that there's there's there's only teeth if

0:54:53.760 --> 0:54:57.520
<v Speaker 1>if the administration accepts the premise, so christin no blatant

0:54:57.600 --> 0:55:00.439
<v Speaker 1>violation of the Hatch Act, you think this White House

0:55:00.480 --> 0:55:02.160
<v Speaker 1>is going to accept the premise that she should be

0:55:02.640 --> 0:55:07.000
<v Speaker 1>somehow garnished pay removed from office, you know whatever. No,

0:55:09.320 --> 0:55:12.879
<v Speaker 1>this gets to my larger point. Right, these were hatch

0:55:12.920 --> 0:55:16.799
<v Speaker 1>ACKed is a bit more. It was a bit more.

0:55:17.000 --> 0:55:19.520
<v Speaker 1>It's almost like it's there so that we in the

0:55:19.560 --> 0:55:22.040
<v Speaker 1>media can say, hey, so and so violated the Hatch Act.

0:55:22.280 --> 0:55:29.080
<v Speaker 1>You voters decide whether you care. Right it should embarrass presidents,

0:55:29.120 --> 0:55:32.520
<v Speaker 1>but this president has politicized everything. I mean, this is

0:55:32.560 --> 0:55:35.680
<v Speaker 1>one of my one of my concerns about what's happening

0:55:35.680 --> 0:55:39.040
<v Speaker 1>with governing in America is that that the idea that

0:55:39.080 --> 0:55:42.160
<v Speaker 1>you only govern for your supporters and you only punish

0:55:42.320 --> 0:55:44.480
<v Speaker 1>those on the on the other side of you politically.

0:55:44.520 --> 0:55:47.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean this idea that they're not laying If you

0:55:47.680 --> 0:55:49.640
<v Speaker 1>really want to just shrink government, you lay off across

0:55:49.640 --> 0:55:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the board. Laying off across the board. They're targeting the

0:55:52.080 --> 0:55:57.960
<v Speaker 1>quote democratic agencies and they're leaving the quote republican agencies alone.

0:55:58.560 --> 0:56:01.400
<v Speaker 1>I didn't know we had democratic agentencies or republican agencies,

0:56:01.400 --> 0:56:06.000
<v Speaker 1>but apparently Russell Voyd thinks we have democratic agencies. So

0:56:06.160 --> 0:56:09.600
<v Speaker 1>this is this is a larger problem. The Hatch HAC

0:56:09.719 --> 0:56:12.880
<v Speaker 1>doesn't work, so we probably need to come up with

0:56:12.920 --> 0:56:16.279
<v Speaker 1>something else that has a bit more teeth and is

0:56:16.320 --> 0:56:21.799
<v Speaker 1>a bit more a bit faster if we want to

0:56:21.880 --> 0:56:24.600
<v Speaker 1>take this type of if we really want to take

0:56:24.640 --> 0:56:28.600
<v Speaker 1>away this polarization. I mean, this gets back to good

0:56:28.640 --> 0:56:33.440
<v Speaker 1>people with bad incentives will do bad things. The Hatch

0:56:33.440 --> 0:56:38.920
<v Speaker 1>Act is something that was intended to service a potential

0:56:40.000 --> 0:56:44.040
<v Speaker 1>piano over your head type of mindset as a as

0:56:44.080 --> 0:56:46.360
<v Speaker 1>a political actor, that there would be embarrassment if you

0:56:46.480 --> 0:56:50.839
<v Speaker 1>violated the Hatch Act. This administration is never embarrassed when

0:56:50.880 --> 0:56:55.960
<v Speaker 1>they politicize things. So I think that's the definition of

0:56:56.040 --> 0:57:00.680
<v Speaker 1>yet another norm if you will or law that. Uh,

0:57:01.840 --> 0:57:04.520
<v Speaker 1>it's good intention, but it doesn't work. So we need

0:57:04.560 --> 0:57:10.239
<v Speaker 1>to revisit it. Perhaps perhaps we need I don't want

0:57:10.280 --> 0:57:12.120
<v Speaker 1>to put so many things, and you know, I don't

0:57:12.120 --> 0:57:17.440
<v Speaker 1>think we need I've advocated for a handful of constitutional amendments.

0:57:17.560 --> 0:57:20.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't the idea that we'd have to make this

0:57:20.080 --> 0:57:23.680
<v Speaker 1>a constitutional amendment seems ridiculous. We probably need real teeth there.

0:57:23.800 --> 0:57:28.480
<v Speaker 1>Maybe it's huge fines you know that are that are

0:57:29.160 --> 0:57:32.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, either resign or fine type of type of thing.

0:57:33.600 --> 0:57:37.240
<v Speaker 1>But we need something better than what we have, that's

0:57:37.240 --> 0:57:40.480
<v Speaker 1>for sure. All right. Next question comes from Mary W.

0:57:40.720 --> 0:57:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Greetings again from Ruby Red, rural Ohio. All Right, so

0:57:44.200 --> 0:57:46.480
<v Speaker 1>this is not a first time, calling this a second time.

0:57:46.880 --> 0:57:48.280
<v Speaker 1>I just wanted to give you a big thank you

0:57:48.320 --> 0:57:50.640
<v Speaker 1>for your interview with Paul Glasters. As a working class

0:57:50.720 --> 0:57:52.840
<v Speaker 1>rural Ohio and I have two daughters, thirteen and eleven,

0:57:52.840 --> 0:57:55.200
<v Speaker 1>my husband and I have been worried about affording college

0:57:55.200 --> 0:57:57.320
<v Speaker 1>if our daughters choose to go. I had a huge

0:57:57.360 --> 0:57:59.320
<v Speaker 1>loan that I could never make any headway on which

0:57:59.360 --> 0:58:01.760
<v Speaker 1>I had forget, which I had forgiven by the Biden

0:58:01.800 --> 0:58:07.760
<v Speaker 1>program for over forty thousand dollars. I left school nineteen

0:58:07.800 --> 0:58:09.960
<v Speaker 1>ninety nine and my education was basically worthless in the

0:58:10.000 --> 0:58:12.440
<v Speaker 1>real world. I don't want that to happen to my

0:58:12.440 --> 0:58:14.240
<v Speaker 1>own kids. I really enjoyed your interview, and when he

0:58:14.400 --> 0:58:17.880
<v Speaker 1>said Berea College was often tuition free and was in Kentucky,

0:58:17.920 --> 0:58:21.360
<v Speaker 1>I googled it immediately. It's only four hours from our house,

0:58:21.400 --> 0:58:22.800
<v Speaker 1>and we'll be on the top of the list if

0:58:22.840 --> 0:58:25.400
<v Speaker 1>our daughters choose college over trade school. Thank you so

0:58:25.480 --> 0:58:27.520
<v Speaker 1>much for that informative interview and all your insights on

0:58:27.520 --> 0:58:30.120
<v Speaker 1>the craziness in the world. Mary w I have to

0:58:30.120 --> 0:58:32.000
<v Speaker 1>tell you I've gotten a lot of I've gotten some

0:58:32.160 --> 0:58:36.280
<v Speaker 1>terrific feedback on Paul's interview. Paul, if your ears are

0:58:37.000 --> 0:58:44.000
<v Speaker 1>birdy good, it's that that just only reinforces what I

0:58:44.040 --> 0:58:46.120
<v Speaker 1>hope to make this podcast about, which is to give

0:58:46.160 --> 0:58:51.160
<v Speaker 1>you more information, give you more expose more good ideas

0:58:51.160 --> 0:58:53.480
<v Speaker 1>that are out there. I've said that one of the

0:58:53.520 --> 0:58:55.600
<v Speaker 1>things I want to do is, look, I'm going to

0:58:55.640 --> 0:58:57.040
<v Speaker 1>be on the news at the top of these things,

0:58:57.080 --> 0:58:59.280
<v Speaker 1>but I want to. I want to. You know, I

0:58:59.360 --> 0:59:02.920
<v Speaker 1>believe in more light than heat, and podcasts should provide

0:59:02.920 --> 0:59:05.000
<v Speaker 1>more light than heat. What do I mean by that

0:59:05.000 --> 0:59:09.680
<v Speaker 1>that you're trying to provide more information, new information, not

0:59:09.760 --> 0:59:12.880
<v Speaker 1>necessarily make people feel good with your takedowns and your

0:59:12.920 --> 0:59:15.400
<v Speaker 1>trolls and your memes and all that business. I know

0:59:15.480 --> 0:59:18.080
<v Speaker 1>that's how you light up the Twitter sphere, and that's

0:59:18.080 --> 0:59:20.320
<v Speaker 1>how you light up your YouTube or your TikTok and

0:59:20.640 --> 0:59:23.480
<v Speaker 1>oh look, I've got all these likes. But are you

0:59:23.560 --> 0:59:25.919
<v Speaker 1>actually making people's lives better? Are you giving them better

0:59:25.960 --> 0:59:29.760
<v Speaker 1>tools to live a better life. Most of these political

0:59:29.920 --> 0:59:35.880
<v Speaker 1>podcast are just griffs. Sadly, these are partisan hacks who

0:59:35.960 --> 0:59:38.240
<v Speaker 1>some of them don't believe half of what they're preaching.

0:59:38.840 --> 0:59:40.360
<v Speaker 1>This is left and right. I'm not going to sit

0:59:40.400 --> 0:59:44.600
<v Speaker 1>here and name names, They know who they are, and

0:59:44.640 --> 0:59:48.880
<v Speaker 1>they're just exploiting an incentive structure that rewards that behavior. Unfortunately.

0:59:49.960 --> 0:59:52.120
<v Speaker 1>But anyway, this warms my heart. And like I said,

0:59:52.160 --> 0:59:56.200
<v Speaker 1>I got a lot of direct feedback about this one too,

0:59:56.280 --> 1:00:00.400
<v Speaker 1>because the cost of tuition is too damn high so

1:00:00.480 --> 1:00:02.800
<v Speaker 1>many of the so called great schools, that's for sure.

1:00:03.160 --> 1:00:06.440
<v Speaker 1>All right. Last question, this one comes from Duncan from Arizona.

1:00:06.840 --> 1:00:08.760
<v Speaker 1>He says, it's given the AI and robotics are set

1:00:08.800 --> 1:00:10.720
<v Speaker 1>to take a big chunk out of the job market.

1:00:10.720 --> 1:00:13.520
<v Speaker 1>What is the likelihood of a universal basic income in

1:00:13.520 --> 1:00:16.440
<v Speaker 1>the United States. I think you're going to see this

1:00:16.520 --> 1:00:19.600
<v Speaker 1>experiment expand outside of what we've seen so far. I

1:00:19.600 --> 1:00:22.720
<v Speaker 1>think it was Stockton, California, has tried this UBI approach.

1:00:23.040 --> 1:00:25.520
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a few other municipalities of toyed with

1:00:25.560 --> 1:00:30.280
<v Speaker 1>it universal basic income UBI. Andrew Yang's presidential campaign talked

1:00:30.320 --> 1:00:39.280
<v Speaker 1>about it. You know what social security? One could argue,

1:00:39.280 --> 1:00:42.280
<v Speaker 1>we're already doing it for a big chunk of the population, right.

1:00:42.680 --> 1:00:46.960
<v Speaker 1>Disability and social security are a form of essentially income

1:00:47.000 --> 1:00:51.600
<v Speaker 1>replacement because you can't work or you're too old to work,

1:00:52.280 --> 1:00:56.360
<v Speaker 1>So we're sort of I would argue we kind of

1:00:56.360 --> 1:01:00.640
<v Speaker 1>have a system in place. You know, we're going to

1:01:00.720 --> 1:01:04.960
<v Speaker 1>go through quite a few changes. I know that the

1:01:04.960 --> 1:01:07.440
<v Speaker 1>prediction of the three day, four day work week has

1:01:07.480 --> 1:01:12.760
<v Speaker 1>been out there for a long time, but I think

1:01:12.840 --> 1:01:17.040
<v Speaker 1>that's more real than ever now. That doesn't mean that

1:01:17.080 --> 1:01:20.280
<v Speaker 1>people aren't going to have multiple The question is what

1:01:20.400 --> 1:01:22.760
<v Speaker 1>is going to be What will full time work be

1:01:22.840 --> 1:01:26.800
<v Speaker 1>defined by? Will full time work be defined by three

1:01:26.920 --> 1:01:30.400
<v Speaker 1>days a week of working minimum? And what does that

1:01:30.440 --> 1:01:35.720
<v Speaker 1>look like? Right, it's possible that that's what's classified as that.

1:01:35.720 --> 1:01:38.720
<v Speaker 1>That doesn't mean you won't see people, you know, sort

1:01:38.720 --> 1:01:44.680
<v Speaker 1>of do what I think arguably firefighters. I grew up

1:01:44.720 --> 1:01:47.720
<v Speaker 1>with a couple of people who were firefighters who also

1:01:47.800 --> 1:01:49.960
<v Speaker 1>had side hustles. You know, they because it was like

1:01:50.080 --> 1:01:52.240
<v Speaker 1>you were twenty four hours on, forty eight hours off,

1:01:52.280 --> 1:01:55.320
<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours on, forty eight hours off. It's a

1:01:55.520 --> 1:01:58.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, where they do a side hustle of some sort.

1:01:58.960 --> 1:02:00.800
<v Speaker 1>Maybe it would be a small bit business, maybe it'd

1:02:00.840 --> 1:02:03.680
<v Speaker 1>be deliveries. Maybe there's real estate. You know, there's all

1:02:03.720 --> 1:02:08.600
<v Speaker 1>sorts of Some teachers have you know, acquired second jobs

1:02:08.640 --> 1:02:13.080
<v Speaker 1>in the summers, even if as they're paid full time,

1:02:13.120 --> 1:02:16.000
<v Speaker 1>but it's it's it's that. So it's not as if

1:02:16.040 --> 1:02:18.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't think people are going to only work three

1:02:18.880 --> 1:02:20.960
<v Speaker 1>days a week. But what is going to be the

1:02:20.960 --> 1:02:24.880
<v Speaker 1>definition of full time work? I think is certainly going

1:02:24.920 --> 1:02:28.920
<v Speaker 1>to be an open question going forward. And I think

1:02:28.960 --> 1:02:33.200
<v Speaker 1>we're going to need you know it is I am.

1:02:34.680 --> 1:02:37.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm a bit skeptical. I think the idea of income

1:02:37.880 --> 1:02:42.200
<v Speaker 1>replacement when needed is going to continue to be something

1:02:42.240 --> 1:02:46.880
<v Speaker 1>that is a benefit. But I I'm not sure the

1:02:47.000 --> 1:02:50.280
<v Speaker 1>human species is going to be comfortable just being paid

1:02:50.320 --> 1:02:51.800
<v Speaker 1>not to work, and I know some of the others

1:02:51.840 --> 1:02:53.280
<v Speaker 1>I'd love to be paid not to work. Would you

1:02:54.640 --> 1:02:58.080
<v Speaker 1>would you have a fulfilling life? Would you be literally

1:02:58.320 --> 1:02:59.960
<v Speaker 1>pick up something else and find a way to make

1:03:00.120 --> 1:03:04.680
<v Speaker 1>money because you were kind of bored in different ways?

1:03:04.720 --> 1:03:09.160
<v Speaker 1>So I do think you're going to see in in

1:03:09.720 --> 1:03:13.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, some form of this. I believe fear of

1:03:13.080 --> 1:03:17.240
<v Speaker 1>AI job displacement is going to be a crucial issue

1:03:17.240 --> 1:03:20.280
<v Speaker 1>in the twenty twenty eight presidential election cycle. And if

1:03:20.320 --> 1:03:23.480
<v Speaker 1>you aren't, if you're thinking about running for president, you

1:03:23.480 --> 1:03:25.720
<v Speaker 1>better have a real plan. You know, are you going

1:03:25.760 --> 1:03:29.320
<v Speaker 1>to be a champion of you BiH? Is that going

1:03:29.360 --> 1:03:31.800
<v Speaker 1>to be part of your thing? Is there a job

1:03:31.840 --> 1:03:34.800
<v Speaker 1>retraining is there that you know? What? What is? What?

1:03:34.800 --> 1:03:36.960
<v Speaker 1>What is your hope if you're hoping to collect dollars

1:03:36.960 --> 1:03:40.080
<v Speaker 1>from the AI companies? And what are you going to

1:03:40.160 --> 1:03:42.120
<v Speaker 1>use with that money? If it is indeed, indeed, is

1:03:42.160 --> 1:03:45.160
<v Speaker 1>it intended simply for income replacement or is it going

1:03:45.200 --> 1:03:50.440
<v Speaker 1>to be for job retraining? But a very simple question

1:03:50.720 --> 1:03:52.680
<v Speaker 1>open the door to what I think could be a

1:03:52.800 --> 1:03:55.640
<v Speaker 1>very uh what to obviously a very long answer there.

1:03:55.680 --> 1:03:59.680
<v Speaker 1>But I do think that this is that this will

1:04:00.280 --> 1:04:03.680
<v Speaker 1>the fear of AI job displacement is going to be

1:04:03.720 --> 1:04:09.000
<v Speaker 1>a really animating issue. And you know, by the way,

1:04:09.240 --> 1:04:12.040
<v Speaker 1>in a sort of separate scenario, at this same trade

1:04:12.080 --> 1:04:14.600
<v Speaker 1>conference that I was participating in here in the digital

1:04:14.600 --> 1:04:20.440
<v Speaker 1>ad community, and this seed was planted by a good

1:04:20.440 --> 1:04:24.000
<v Speaker 1>friend of mine recently, and I think he's right, which is,

1:04:26.440 --> 1:04:30.400
<v Speaker 1>if we don't believe anything we see anymore on the internet, right,

1:04:30.480 --> 1:04:34.800
<v Speaker 1>and with these AI visual tools, you know, I'm sorry,

1:04:34.840 --> 1:04:37.240
<v Speaker 1>I look at stuff where I'm following on social media

1:04:37.280 --> 1:04:39.480
<v Speaker 1>and someone will say, hey, that's obvious AI slop, And

1:04:39.520 --> 1:04:43.120
<v Speaker 1>I use my old fifty three year old eyes, I squint.

1:04:44.200 --> 1:04:50.480
<v Speaker 1>Is it obvious? What am I missing? Right? I think

1:04:50.520 --> 1:04:51.960
<v Speaker 1>that it's going to be a lot easier to just

1:04:52.160 --> 1:04:55.160
<v Speaker 1>assume everything is. There's going to be almost an assumption

1:04:55.240 --> 1:04:58.640
<v Speaker 1>that everything you see on the Internet is AI enhanced

1:04:58.800 --> 1:05:03.080
<v Speaker 1>or created. So what does that mean. It's going to

1:05:03.120 --> 1:05:05.960
<v Speaker 1>put a premium on face to face, It's going to

1:05:06.000 --> 1:05:10.720
<v Speaker 1>put a premium on live in person maybe to a

1:05:10.800 --> 1:05:16.680
<v Speaker 1>lesser extent live streams, but even that could get aied, right.

1:05:18.480 --> 1:05:21.160
<v Speaker 1>I know of another person who is trying to clone

1:05:21.200 --> 1:05:29.600
<v Speaker 1>themselves to do more survey research, qualitative survey research. Obviously

1:05:29.640 --> 1:05:32.520
<v Speaker 1>you you you know where an AI version of said

1:05:32.520 --> 1:05:37.000
<v Speaker 1>person can start doing Q and as that that that

1:05:37.160 --> 1:05:41.320
<v Speaker 1>is I see the upside of doing collecting data that way.

1:05:43.600 --> 1:05:48.320
<v Speaker 1>Call me, call me skeptical that that actual human beings

1:05:48.360 --> 1:05:54.080
<v Speaker 1>will feel comfortable doing that. So, but it is interesting,

1:05:54.120 --> 1:05:56.560
<v Speaker 1>I am. I do think we're going to see some

1:05:56.720 --> 1:06:01.600
<v Speaker 1>interesting unintended consequences in this race to the AI affication

1:06:01.720 --> 1:06:07.960
<v Speaker 1>of the Internet, and politically, a have job displacement, those issues,

1:06:08.040 --> 1:06:12.600
<v Speaker 1>that's definitely going to be in the forefront. But it's

1:06:12.640 --> 1:06:18.680
<v Speaker 1>going to make human interaction a premium. I have, for instance,

1:06:18.720 --> 1:06:21.400
<v Speaker 1>I think customer service. If you want a human being,

1:06:21.560 --> 1:06:23.520
<v Speaker 1>you may have to pay extra for it, and I

1:06:23.560 --> 1:06:28.200
<v Speaker 1>have a feeling people will pay extra for it, but

1:06:28.840 --> 1:06:33.520
<v Speaker 1>human beings. Dealing with a human being will be seen

1:06:34.560 --> 1:06:37.600
<v Speaker 1>as a much better experience than dealing with a computer

1:06:37.760 --> 1:06:41.200
<v Speaker 1>you cannot sort of reason with, even if you think

1:06:41.240 --> 1:06:45.720
<v Speaker 1>you're reasoning with, said robot. All right, on that uplifting

1:06:45.840 --> 1:06:52.600
<v Speaker 1>dystopian notes, go rewatch Gataka right now, I tease with that,

1:06:52.760 --> 1:06:55.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to take a twenty four hour break, but

1:06:55.640 --> 1:06:57.360
<v Speaker 1>I will see you in twenty four hours until we

1:06:57.400 --> 1:06:57.919
<v Speaker 1>upload again.