Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the college Football Look
Speaker 1: aheadline show for betting Pros, where I Thomas Piola walk
Speaker 1: you through all of our great God of thunder Thorne
Speaker 1: Eistrom's favorite picks of this week's college football slate. It's
Speaker 1: a good one here for and we had a great
Speaker 1: week this week. Both of our teams now four and
Speaker 1: oh Kansas and Syracuse and let's get right off started here.
Speaker 1: Syracuse of course playing Wagner this week. My first ever
Speaker 1: college football game. Actually went and saw Syracuse play them
Speaker 1: in the Carrier Dome my freshman year. So we don't
Speaker 1: actually have to talk about that game because it's an
Speaker 1: FCS opponent. But Kansas is going to be going up
Speaker 1: against Iowa State. They are two point favorites in this
Speaker 1: There are three point favorites in this one. You have
Speaker 1: it at two points. Let's talk about that game for
Speaker 1: a second year. How are you? First off, how are
Speaker 1: you doing and how are you feeling about this Kansas game.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well, Thomas doing well. Yeah, And to be clear,
Speaker 2: Iowa State favored by three somewhat surprising line, at least
Speaker 2: in comparison to what you would have thought in the
Speaker 2: preseason but it is more or less in line with
Speaker 2: what my number is because now the Jayhawks have jumped
Speaker 2: way up in the power rankings. Obviously last week they
Speaker 2: beat Duke, who had been undefeated before that. Kansas had
Speaker 2: won two impressive road games before that consecutively, West Virginia
Speaker 2: and Houston. So I mean you have to yank them
Speaker 2: up in the power rankings, and it just becomes a
Speaker 2: question of how far Iowa State last week did not
Speaker 2: acquit themselves super duper well at home against Baylor. A
Speaker 2: Baylor a team that had had a bunch of injury
Speaker 2: concerns and then had guys coming back stuff like that.
Speaker 2: They hadn't played good offense up until play in Iowa State.
Speaker 2: I think this is an objectively fair line, but it's
Speaker 2: also a game for people that have a conviction on
Speaker 2: either Kansas or Iowa State, this would be the game
Speaker 2: to play at your flag. But just as far as
Speaker 2: the marketplace, this is a fair number.
Speaker 1: I completely understand here. But hey, we have to talk
Speaker 1: about our teams first. I'm very excited for the Natty
Speaker 1: between us and I'm very excited for college game Day
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. I need NC State to
Speaker 1: beat Clemson in Florida State and for us to just
Speaker 1: cut through our next two games and get on to
Speaker 1: NC State versus Syracuse undefeated in the Dome. Very fun
Speaker 1: potential matchup for college game Day here. But let's talk
Speaker 1: about a couple of the games that you have a
Speaker 1: big discrepancy on between you and the book, starting with
Speaker 1: Louisville versus Boston College. Again, most of these games not
Speaker 1: gonna be against the headline grabbing teams because this is
Speaker 1: where the value is. And you've got this spread at eleven,
Speaker 1: the spread actually existing at sixteen and a half in
Speaker 1: favor of Boston College. Here.
Speaker 2: No Louisville, Yeah, yeah, Louisville favored by sixteen and a half.
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's tough because with Boston College, I've yanked
Speaker 2: him down and my power rankings about as far as
Speaker 2: I think I objectively can, and the marketplace is still
Speaker 2: fading them even harder than that. I tried to grab
Speaker 2: Boston College last week and failed. That was probably my
Speaker 2: worst pick of the week, trying to take them against
Speaker 2: Florida State. It turned out that Jordan Travis play and
Speaker 2: then that thing went up in smoke. But Boston College
Speaker 2: has all kinds of problems, mainly on offense. That the
Speaker 2: huge one is their offensive line, which a couple of
Speaker 2: years ago and you know then going back several years
Speaker 2: had actually been really good. It was one of the
Speaker 2: things the program did consistently well. But that unit is
Speaker 2: absolutely created and it's one of those things where that's
Speaker 2: wasting what is good talent. Like at the other positions,
Speaker 2: like Phil Jerkobek is probably going to be drafted even
Speaker 2: though he's having this terrible season because of his offensive line,
Speaker 2: and Zay Flowers, his best receiver, probably going to be
Speaker 2: drafted too. They did have a season ending injury to report.
Speaker 2: I believe it was to their defensive end, so they're
Speaker 2: also having some to their best defensive lineman, so they're
Speaker 2: also having some injury concerns as well. This is a
Speaker 2: really tough one because I do not like Louisville. I
Speaker 2: like I look for opportunities to fade Louisville, but it's
Speaker 2: also exceedingly hard to trust Boston College. And like I said,
Speaker 2: I tried last week and it didn't work out for me.
Speaker 2: That my system still is showing the value on Boston College,
Speaker 2: even with how far I pulled them down in my
Speaker 2: power rank case. I'm not sure yet though if I'll
Speaker 2: end up buying a ticket on that if I can
Speaker 2: ride another one with Boston College. But that's what the week.
Speaker 2: As far as handicapping, let me.
Speaker 1: Tell you, I have a bias against Boston College because
Speaker 1: they did not even get back to me with my
Speaker 1: college application. All that's hey, it worked out in the end.
Speaker 1: I am very happy with my school choice. But you know,
Speaker 1: what school I was going to choose between with Syracuse
Speaker 1: would have been a hard decision because of the weather.
Speaker 1: USC ended up denying me, so i had no choice
Speaker 1: whatsoever to make, and I'm very happy with how it
Speaker 1: all shook out. But USC this week is going on
Speaker 1: up against Arizona State. The sun Devil's getting twenty three
Speaker 1: and a half points on the road here in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: Where are you going in this one? Do you think
Speaker 1: this line is where it should be.
Speaker 2: More or less? Yeah? I mean my addressed line on
Speaker 2: is is twenty. But you also, Arizona State is a
Speaker 2: big time fade at this point, a big time so
Speaker 2: they obviously they fired herm Edwards and last week. Generally,
Speaker 2: in the first week after you fired the coach, that's
Speaker 2: when you're gonna get the better effort, and statistically after
Speaker 2: that the team depreciates a bit. Arizona State, despite that,
Speaker 2: did not cover what was a pretty big number against
Speaker 2: Utah last week. They got close. I think they lost
Speaker 2: by twenty one points, and they were like closed as
Speaker 2: like sixteen and a half point sixteen and a half
Speaker 2: something like that point underdogs, But they don't look good
Speaker 2: at all, and obviously they're they're trending down. USC did
Speaker 2: not look great for large swathet swatch swath is swat
Speaker 2: swaths swaths. Yeah, okay, we were going to get there
Speaker 2: of that game against Oregon State on Saturday night, but
Speaker 2: you've got to give enormous credit to USC for pulling
Speaker 2: that one out because they had to play that game
Speaker 2: the way Oregon State wanted it to be played, not
Speaker 2: the way that USC wanted it to be played. It
Speaker 2: turned out to be this low scoring, methodical kind of
Speaker 2: game that USC was able to pull out by a
Speaker 2: field goal. USC didn't cover that game in Core Vallas,
Speaker 2: but I actually think that's a super impressive win because
Speaker 2: Oregon State is what you know, way better this year,
Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean I tend to
Speaker 2: think that USC is going to roll over Arizona State,
Speaker 2: But twenty three points is a lot, although I by
Speaker 2: the time this thing gets to kick, I would imagine
Speaker 2: it's going to be twenty four and a half. Now.
Speaker 1: No, if you think that's the case, should we be
Speaker 1: betting it now? Or is the line still not what
Speaker 1: you think it should be and we shouldn't be even investing.
Speaker 2: I mean, you could certainly think about it. For me,
Speaker 2: that's probably a stay away game just because of how
Speaker 2: big that number is, and objectively it is inflated, but
Speaker 2: you can explain the inflation rate. And so then you
Speaker 2: have to decide, like can I bet? Like am I
Speaker 2: able to show confidence in putting my money behind that
Speaker 2: Arizona State team that doesn't seem to have any fight now,
Speaker 2: that doesn't have any schematic advantages, their talent level is down,
Speaker 2: you know, et cetera, et cetera. Against this USC team
Speaker 2: that when they played bad teams, they've been you know,
Speaker 2: rolling them and then they were able to pull that
Speaker 2: game out last week. The USC has been playing these
Speaker 2: teams that played different ways, you know, starting out the season,
Speaker 2: and they're winning each time. Stanford wanted to slow it
Speaker 2: down against them, they beat them. Rice did it the
Speaker 2: week before, and they slap Rice around. Rice is actually
Speaker 2: a little bit better than we thought they were going
Speaker 2: to be. The Rice upside Houston yesterday, and then this
Speaker 2: past game against Oregon State they were able to play
Speaker 2: the way Oregon State wanted to play and they beat
Speaker 2: them as well. So, I mean, USC, you know, was
Speaker 2: still trying to get a feel on exactly what you know.
Speaker 2: Are they at top five team? Are they a top
Speaker 2: ten team? Are they a top twenty team? You know
Speaker 2: with the power ranking stuff like that. But for me
Speaker 2: on this line, I'm not going to touch you. At
Speaker 2: least early in the week. I'll see what the market does,
Speaker 2: I'll do my handicap, and then I'll make a decision
Speaker 2: later in the week.
Speaker 1: How about you of a going to the other Arizona
Speaker 1: team here, they're laying eighteen points against Colorado. What are
Speaker 1: you thinking in this one? Is this line where it
Speaker 1: should be or is this a game that you're really
Speaker 1: interested in betting.
Speaker 2: It's another one where the market or Vegas and anticipation
Speaker 2: of what the market is going to do, had to
Speaker 2: inflate a line, and probably justifiably, Colorado is absolute garbage,
Speaker 2: absolute garbage. Ucla last week didn't even have a full
Speaker 2: compliment of players, and they were still fairly easily able
Speaker 2: to cover twenty one and a half points on the
Speaker 2: road at Colorado. Arizona is better this year. Like I
Speaker 2: think some people, if they haven't paid like a ton
Speaker 2: of attention of the first month of the season, they
Speaker 2: only they're only going off their memory. They might get
Speaker 2: some sticker shock looking at this line. Arizona be in
Speaker 2: favor by eighteen. I do think you can justify it
Speaker 2: just by how well Arizona's played last week. I was
Speaker 2: expecting a little bit better from Arizona playing Cal, just
Speaker 2: because Cal's a limited team. But Arizona had impressed me
Speaker 2: in the weeks before that. They beat the FCS's best team,
Speaker 2: North Dakota State. North Akota State, a team who's better
Speaker 2: than a whole bunch of different FBS teams, and then
Speaker 2: you know, beating San Diego State in the opening game
Speaker 2: on the road by three possessions. I believe stuff like that.
Speaker 2: So it's another one where do you want to hold
Speaker 2: your nose on a really crappy team on the idea
Speaker 2: that you're getting a few points of line value or
Speaker 2: you know, go the other direction. For me, it's probably
Speaker 2: another one where I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: I feel that, but maybe this game could tempt your
Speaker 1: tempt your fancy a little more. It's a wild shoot
Speaker 1: out between two massive names in college football. James Madison
Speaker 1: laying twenty against Texas State. Who you got?
Speaker 2: I Well, both these teams are on different you know,
Speaker 2: like different points of the polarity are by teams. For me,
Speaker 2: for sure, I do have to apologize to James Madison.
Speaker 2: Is clear from over the summer that I was wrong
Speaker 2: about them. They were a team that I was just
Speaker 2: a little bit lower on than the marketplace heading into
Speaker 2: the season because it was an FCS team jumping up
Speaker 2: and you know, to the FBS their first year in
Speaker 2: the FBS, and you go back, like the last ten
Speaker 2: to fifteen years, the teams that have done that historically
Speaker 2: their first year they take the step back, which you
Speaker 2: would intuitively think James Madison has not. They have not
Speaker 2: so far. And beating Appalachian State was a real feather
Speaker 2: in the cap. James Madison had slapped around Middle Tennessee
Speaker 2: and the opener, and I was higher on Middle Tennessee
Speaker 2: coming into the year than the market place and so
Speaker 2: that that was my first one of like, am I
Speaker 2: wrong about Middle Tennessee or am I wrong about James Madison?
Speaker 2: And it turns out that I was wrong about James Madison.
Speaker 2: So I have definitely toggled James Madison up in my
Speaker 2: power rankings. But Texas State can also do some different stuff.
Speaker 2: They're a team that, like when they played the you know,
Speaker 2: power fed teams or whatever, the system can't overcome the
Speaker 2: talent discrepancy and they you know, it's basically like the
Speaker 2: nerd in high school getting his hands tied by in
Speaker 2: his back and getting shoved in a locker. But like
Speaker 2: when they play the teams that are around them in talent,
Speaker 2: that's when the scheme and the way that they practice
Speaker 2: and the conditioning can start to benefit them because you know,
Speaker 2: they play up tempo. Spivatal is now I believe in
Speaker 2: his fourth year there, you know, and they can get
Speaker 2: the ball in the hands of their playmakers. They brought
Speaker 2: in a quarterback too, that there was a better fit
Speaker 2: for spivotal system in Lane Hatcher kid who came from
Speaker 2: Arkansas State. As far as this number of it's you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a lot of points to lay on
Speaker 2: with James Madison. I think I would probably go the
Speaker 2: other way on this one and lean towards the underdog
Speaker 2: with Texas State. With how many points you're getting. My
Speaker 2: justin line on it is James Madison minus fifteen point
Speaker 2: five and this one's you can explain the inflation on
Speaker 2: this one just by James Madison coming up that win
Speaker 2: against appleach and State. But you would sort of anticipate
Speaker 2: after the biggest win of their young FBS life to
Speaker 2: this point that the effort the next week you might
Speaker 2: have a little bit of a letdown spot.
Speaker 1: I feel that although the Constitution himself, James Madison might
Speaker 1: be coming for you on that, but I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I think Texas State is going to have a good
Speaker 1: chance here. That app State upset was really something, but man,
Speaker 1: app State collapsed in that second half. That was a
Speaker 1: ridiculous game, man.
Speaker 2: Well, and also that was a really good spot for
Speaker 2: James Madison, an underrated one because it was a bad
Speaker 2: spot for Apple Aachen Sate. Apple Lachen State, a team
Speaker 2: that had played in the train with UNC and then
Speaker 2: they had had the upset of A and M and
Speaker 2: like you know, all the different things Apple Lagen State
Speaker 2: had had this wild season up up until that already.
Speaker 2: It was like they'd already played out like two seasons.
Speaker 2: Like in those those first three games, the other one
Speaker 2: being Troy, where you had all of college football's eyes
Speaker 2: on you. You came out flatt in that one because
Speaker 2: that was another bad situational spot and then you had
Speaker 2: to furiously come from behind to pull that one out
Speaker 2: in front of your home, your home fans. Then the
Speaker 2: next week you turn around and face this team that
Speaker 2: was ANFCS steam last year. I don't think that Apple
Speaker 2: Ach and State was happy with their effort in that
Speaker 2: game coming out of it, and so yeah, I think
Speaker 2: that the result of it probably flattered James Madison, even
Speaker 2: though I don't want to take away from James Madison
Speaker 2: what they did because they have been super impressive so far.
Speaker 1: Now, this next game up here, Florida International takes on
Speaker 1: New Mexico State. New Mexico State late in fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half, and I'm noticing a trend here through some
Speaker 1: of these games with these home favorites that are very hefty.
Speaker 1: You're thinking that a lot of these lines are inflated.
Speaker 1: This is another one.
Speaker 2: It yeah, sure it I mean, New Mexico State being
Speaker 2: favored against anyone in the FBS by over two touchdowns
Speaker 2: is wild, like if you've watched New Mexico State. But
Speaker 2: this one is a I think it's a direct response
Speaker 2: to last week, like because they played Hawaii last week
Speaker 2: at home and they ended up boat racing them. It
Speaker 2: turns out Hawaii is probably the second worst team in
Speaker 2: the FBS, because the worst one it's FIU. So, I mean,
Speaker 2: Vegas had to bring that one up a bit because
Speaker 2: New Mexico State showed that they could win by margin
Speaker 2: against a very, very, very bad team, but they were
Speaker 2: greatly aided by Hawaii in that game. New Mexico State
Speaker 2: couldn't throw that much on Hawaii, and even the rushing stats,
Speaker 2: it was like the efficiency wasn't there. It was just
Speaker 2: like they were just running for these long touchdowns because
Speaker 2: Hawaii can't tackle or fill the gaps. So, I mean,
Speaker 2: can can you get at least competency out of FIU?
Speaker 2: We'll see about that ask It's a tough ass. I mean, again,
Speaker 2: they are the lowest team in the FBS in my
Speaker 2: power ratings, they're even lower than Hawaii. Still, Hawaii may
Speaker 2: have taggled down to one thirty at this point, but
Speaker 2: FIU remains what one thirty one. Fau's got problems on
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. But for me, it's tough
Speaker 2: because this is sort of my same take about last week,
Speaker 2: which was wrong. You know about the New Mexico State
Speaker 2: line against Hawaii, But for me, it's it's the same
Speaker 2: case in this one. It's just more inflated against potentially
Speaker 2: a little bit worse of a team. But fifteen and
Speaker 2: a half points having to lay that with New Mexico State,
Speaker 2: it's a bridge too far for me, knowing how bad
Speaker 2: that team has.
Speaker 1: I feel that I mean when it comes to Hawaii.
Speaker 1: I missed the Cole McDonald Days because I remember d
Speaker 1: Jen Krik, Cole Brennan, Brennan rest in peace and peace,
Speaker 1: Rest in peace, indeed. But I missed the Cole McDonald
Speaker 1: Days because that holds a special place in my heart.
Speaker 1: We had a very DJN Christmas where a couple of
Speaker 1: my former co workers and I went down on the strip,
Speaker 1: toreed a bunch of different casinos, hitting different table games
Speaker 1: and such, and we capped off Christmas Eve watching Hawaii
Speaker 1: in the Hawaii Bowl and trying to set up a
Speaker 1: nice meddle with Cole McDonald there. The man had a farm.
Speaker 1: You have to trust him. But that Hawaii team is
Speaker 1: just absolutely pitiful, can't even take advantage of the time
Speaker 1: difference in massive travel. But this Florida International team, like
Speaker 1: you said, is awfully terrible. I don't know about laying
Speaker 1: with New Mexico State either. But let's talk about some
Speaker 1: of the bigger teams here. Now we do have a
Speaker 1: couple games. There are a couple teams on rest, but
Speaker 1: we still have a couple of games to talk about.
Speaker 1: By far, one of the marquee matchups here is going
Speaker 1: to be Alabama versus Arkansas. It's gonna be fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half in favor of Bama. What have you thought
Speaker 1: about Arkansas so far this season? And do you think
Speaker 1: that this line is where it should be. Fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half doesn't feel like a lot of points to
Speaker 1: land Abama game.
Speaker 2: It doesn't. But it's funny. My system landed exactly on
Speaker 2: fifteen and a half, which it doesn't do a lot
Speaker 2: because you know the veiggest numbers, they got to either
Speaker 2: be on the whole number on the half, and mine
Speaker 2: could be on any of the tents or whatever. And
Speaker 2: it landed smack dab on that. I do think it's
Speaker 2: a fair number. I was hoping for a little bit
Speaker 2: better from Arkansas last week against A and M. I
Speaker 2: didn't I didn't bet it just because you know that
Speaker 2: number two fell right on my thing and the game
Speaker 2: result ended right around where the spread was or whatever.
Speaker 2: But I do trust kJ Jefferson. I like him as
Speaker 2: a quarterback. I like the running backs that they have
Speaker 2: there as well, and it seems like they've they've done
Speaker 2: an okay job figuring out how to sort of, how
Speaker 2: do I say, is spread the usage that used to
Speaker 2: just be funneled towards Alon Burks sort of around the
Speaker 2: skill guys, you know, and then a little bit more
Speaker 2: to kJ and to keep the offense going. You know,
Speaker 2: that was probably my singular concern about the Hogs over
Speaker 2: the offseason, was you lose this guy that you funneled,
Speaker 2: you know, X percentage of your offense to. You know,
Speaker 2: how are you going to do with that? The the
Speaker 2: thing that concerns me a bit is their secondary and
Speaker 2: they've had health concerns there, et cetera. Texas A and
Speaker 2: M was not a team that was equipped to take
Speaker 2: advantage of that both because of their bad quarterback play,
Speaker 2: and then they really only have the one sort of
Speaker 2: I don't really want to call an Ia Smith a
Speaker 2: receiver because he's both he and Odd Chane are more
Speaker 2: offensive weapons than they are running back or wide receiver,
Speaker 2: but like you know, their A and m's receiving core
Speaker 2: is limited. And then an Ia Smith suffered very unfortunately
Speaker 2: a season ending injury during during that Arkansas game. But
Speaker 2: I mean, Arkansas, do they have enough to keep this
Speaker 2: game within two touchdowns? I think so? But this the
Speaker 2: I mean yeah, theoretically, yeah, but the secondary issues are
Speaker 2: gonna come to the four here potentially if they're not
Speaker 2: patched up. Because Alabama's passing game is I mean, obviously
Speaker 2: as talented as any other passing game this side of
Speaker 2: Ohio State, and now it appears to even have ticked up,
Speaker 2: because there was those couple of games where it had
Speaker 2: played down and Saban was doing weird things with the
Speaker 2: depth chart, like he was playing the true freshman apprentice.
Speaker 2: He wasn't playing a couple of the older receivers, and
Speaker 2: it was weird just because it was at the beginning
Speaker 2: of the season and Bryce Young did not appear to
Speaker 2: be on the same page with his receiving corps at
Speaker 2: all times, and he you know, he played down in
Speaker 2: the Texas game, stuff like that. You know, it was
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt last week. But things were looking good for Alabama
Speaker 2: and not only that. Ja Cory Brooks for instance, a
Speaker 2: guy who strangely, over the first three games, I don't
Speaker 2: know if he was in the doghouse or what was
Speaker 2: going going on there, but he was expected to be
Speaker 2: like their number two receiver this year, and he was
Speaker 2: on a milk carton over the first three games. Well,
Speaker 2: last week they finally play the kid, and he absolutely
Speaker 2: torched Vanderbilt. You had like six catch one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty five yards some like that, two touchdowns. So I
Speaker 2: feel like Alabama is getting a better sense of its
Speaker 2: receiving cores and how the pieces work together because they
Speaker 2: have several different players in that receiving corps who have
Speaker 2: the disparate skill sets, you know, like you know, sort
Speaker 2: of like a basketball team, you know, where you have
Speaker 2: your point guard, you have your small forward, you have
Speaker 2: your center, et cetera. And I think that that Saban's
Speaker 2: getting a better idea that now you're getting Harroll back
Speaker 2: to the kid, they had brought in from Louisville. He's
Speaker 2: the deep speed merchant. He was supposed to be the
Speaker 2: analog for Jamison Williams. So now that receiving corp is
Speaker 2: going to go way up. That's the key to this game.
Speaker 2: Ken Arkansas defend Alabama's passing attack.
Speaker 1: Oh, I am frightened of a learning Nick Saban and
Speaker 1: if he can fully harness the potential of this receiving corps,
Speaker 1: I'm even more scared. I said, I know how Brice
Speaker 1: Young will do in the NFL, but in the college game,
Speaker 1: Bam is still a tough out. I mean, obviously that's
Speaker 1: the coldest take imaginable. But uh, the only team that
Speaker 1: looks better than them so far has been Georgia. They
Speaker 1: are headed to Missouri to take on Missou. Here as
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half point favorites. Do you think
Speaker 1: this line is right?
Speaker 2: I do today?
Speaker 1: Georgia, that's my bigger question here? Can you ever fade Georgia?
Speaker 2: Well in this one, it's another I'll probably be staying
Speaker 2: away from it, just with where the line is. My
Speaker 2: line on it is twenty four and a half. Georgia
Speaker 2: by twenty four and a half. But there's no chance
Speaker 2: that I'm gonna I'm gonna take the points with Missouri.
Speaker 2: I've seen some of this Missouri team on uh yesterday
Speaker 2: on Saturday. You know, when the audiences listened on Saturday,
Speaker 2: Missouri's playing Auburn, and Auburn did everything they could to
Speaker 2: let Missouri win that game, and Missouri just wouldn't take it.
Speaker 2: And the hilarious thing was it was for way more
Speaker 2: than a football game. There was reports that Auburn was
Speaker 2: going to fire Brian Harson immediately after that game if
Speaker 2: they lost, and it very much appeared like Missouri was
Speaker 2: going to win it because it very much appeared like
Speaker 2: Auburn did not want to win it. And then despite themselves,
Speaker 2: Auburn somehow managed to pull that thing out, despite all
Speaker 2: these shenanigans and the fact they couldn't throw the ball
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. I'm not impressed with Missouri at all,
Speaker 2: and the fact that they kept it close with Auburn
Speaker 2: on the road. I think in past years you'd give
Speaker 2: them a little bit of a feather in the cap
Speaker 2: for that. Not this year, not with that Auburn team.
Speaker 2: That that was the sort of thing where you remember
Speaker 2: last week, Thomas, when they Arizona State fired herm and
Speaker 2: then they started to come out the stories of like,
Speaker 2: you know, the assistants hated him so much that they
Speaker 2: were given the game plans to the opposing coaches. I
Speaker 2: don't know if that was true or not, but like,
Speaker 2: you know, you almost started to think, like, is that
Speaker 2: what Auburn is doing with you know, trying to get
Speaker 2: hardest and how they they given the game plan away
Speaker 2: and Missouri still couldn't capitalize on it. Definitely do not
Speaker 2: trust Missouri. Certainly do trust Georgia, but that it's a
Speaker 2: big line. You have four touchdowns, that's a big line
Speaker 2: to lay on the run.
Speaker 1: That I still can't fait Georgia, especially against missoo. But
Speaker 1: I have bias there. That's a j school rivalry with Syracuse.
Speaker 1: I don't want to question you, but this Georgia team,
Speaker 1: this defense looks so good man. I I don't know
Speaker 1: who other than of course Syracuse or Kansas is going
Speaker 1: to be able to top them.
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, only the elite teams. Well, but we'll
Speaker 2: have to see in the playoffs when those three.
Speaker 1: Exactly, we'll have to see which one draws the short
Speaker 1: straw and has to take them on. But how about
Speaker 1: an Armed Forces game. Here, my friend, Yeah, we've got
Speaker 1: sixteen points being laid by Air Force over the Navy here.
Speaker 1: You know, these games are always one of the most
Speaker 1: interesting rivalries in sports because of you know, everything that's
Speaker 1: going into this. Who are you taking in Navy versus
Speaker 1: Air Force?
Speaker 2: I would I think I would lean towards taking Air Force.
Speaker 2: The only small caveat on that. And this is something
Speaker 2: that I'm gonna be looking into over the next couple
Speaker 2: of days. Is the first three weeks, Navy looked like
Speaker 2: one of the five worst teams in the FBS. They
Speaker 2: looked really, really bad. One of their losses was at
Speaker 2: home to Delaware. They weren't competitive in some of the
Speaker 2: other you know, like in the in the other couple ones,
Speaker 2: and you know, you were wondering, is this gonna be
Speaker 2: another nightmare year for ken Yamatalolo, and and you had
Speaker 2: the thing of you know, we talked about this on
Speaker 2: previous shows, Thomas how Over the offseason, the NCAA had
Speaker 2: banned cut blocks outside the tackle box, which only hurt
Speaker 2: triple option teams pretty much because they were the teams
Speaker 2: that ubiquitously did it, like whereas a part of what
Speaker 2: they actually did, and it seemed like that was actively
Speaker 2: destroying the Navy team. But then on Saturday, like I,
Speaker 2: you know, I already had stuck a you know, like
Speaker 2: an industrial size fork into the back of this Navy team.
Speaker 2: And then I'm just watching the games mine in my
Speaker 2: own business, and I look at the scoreboard and they're
Speaker 2: given East Carolina game and they end up pulling it out.
Speaker 2: I believe in double overtime. Navy ends up winning on
Speaker 2: the road at EASYU. EASYU is a legitimate team. This year.
Speaker 2: They're gonna make a ballgame, So I mean that was
Speaker 2: all legitimate went was that one game of easy? You
Speaker 2: just overlooking the opponent? Or has Navy figured out how
Speaker 2: to play under these new rules? Sometimes it does take
Speaker 2: some of these triple option teams a little bit, you know,
Speaker 2: like I don't want to use the metaphor with you know,
Speaker 2: with with with Navy, but getting their sea legs under them.
Speaker 2: And sometimes they need that because you know, you have
Speaker 2: the guys that graduate typically for them the service academies,
Speaker 2: they're replacing more starters than the typical team because it's
Speaker 2: usually like the upperclassmen and then they'll graduate, you know, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 2: So that's the big question on this one is the
Speaker 2: Navy side. The Air Force team is very consistent. I
Speaker 2: mean they're just good. So like with them, you feel
Speaker 2: pretty good about what you're getting there. Navy's the grab big.
Speaker 2: If you get the first three weeks Navy, they're going
Speaker 2: to get absolutely annihilated. If you get anything close to
Speaker 2: last week Navy, this is going to be a close game.
Speaker 2: And Thomas as you know that like the best bet
Speaker 2: in sports betting going back like twenty years is just
Speaker 2: just blindly betting the under in every game between service
Speaker 2: academies because the cloud is always running and the against
Speaker 2: the spread record on that is absolutely insane. And there's
Speaker 2: a corollary to that rule, which is if one of
Speaker 2: the teams is favored by double digits, you grab the dog.
Speaker 2: So in terms of that, that would lean towards Navy.
Speaker 2: But again, this is a game I'm going to look
Speaker 2: into the next couple of days. I you know, my
Speaker 2: number on that game is nineteen, So my system certainly
Speaker 2: leaning Air four. The circumstances and history would suggest Navy.
Speaker 2: The early season stuff again, first three weeks not Navy.
Speaker 2: Last week would suggest Navy. So it's just a game
Speaker 2: you got to get into on the handicap.
Speaker 1: Now, how about another big one here between two big
Speaker 1: ten teams. We got Michigan going up against Iowa. If
Speaker 1: you want to lay ten points with the visiting Michigan,
Speaker 1: well that's what you got to do, because they are
Speaker 1: ten point favorites. Here are you taking Iowa or is
Speaker 1: this number right where it should be?
Speaker 2: It's funny, this is the second one we talked about
Speaker 2: where my system was right on the number. My number
Speaker 2: on this game was ten flat. This line actually opened
Speaker 2: at Michigan minus nine, and then it toggled. The ten
Speaker 2: was sitting right on my number. It's I mean, look,
Speaker 2: I'm an Iowa graduate, so take what I'm about to
Speaker 2: say with the grain of salt, but I would lean
Speaker 2: towards Iowa, and the way that I see it is you.
Speaker 2: Iowa once, of course, wants to ugly the game up,
Speaker 2: wants to turn every game into a rock fight, and
Speaker 2: Michigan doesn't have the offensive talent or doesn't even have
Speaker 2: the offensive scheme. I think we're they're able on a defense,
Speaker 2: It's as good as Iowa's because Iowa has the top
Speaker 2: ten defense to be able to put up a bunch
Speaker 2: of points where you feel comfortable laying double is on
Speaker 2: the road of them. I do feel it's a fair line, absolutely,
Speaker 2: but circumstantially in game script wise, I would rather have Iowa.
Speaker 2: I think if the line is ten or above, and
Speaker 2: if you're interested in Iowa, it's probably a circumstance where
Speaker 2: you want to wait until later in the week because
Speaker 2: I can't imagine that the betting market is going to
Speaker 2: be betting on Iowa this week. I can't imagine they're
Speaker 2: going to be like a popular pack. So I mean,
Speaker 2: like later in the week you can probably get you know,
Speaker 2: certainly ten and a half or a little bit higher.
Speaker 2: But this game's funny because over the summer, I got
Speaker 2: this buddy in town, and you know, I live in Minneapolis,
Speaker 2: but I got this buddy named Steve and he's he's
Speaker 2: a Michigan alum, and he's an enormous Michigan homer, and
Speaker 2: we were talking, uh one of these summer nights, we
Speaker 2: were having some beers, and he asked me what I
Speaker 2: thought the line for this game was going to be,
Speaker 2: and so I tossed out a number, and he tossed
Speaker 2: out a number, and we began negotiating on what what
Speaker 2: are what would become a bet that we were going
Speaker 2: to make on this game, and unfortunately for me, I
Speaker 2: stopped the negotiation at I accepted Iowa plus six. So
Speaker 2: it with on that one from over the summer, I'm
Speaker 2: getting the short end of the stick. But you know
Speaker 2: around that time that over the summer, that's about where
Speaker 2: you know, the look at look aheadline would have been. Obviously,
Speaker 2: Iowa hasn't specifically, their offense has not looked at as
Speaker 2: as uh, they haven't even looked mediocre. We were hoping
Speaker 2: for mediocre. We have not gotten mediocre.
Speaker 1: Yet non existent.
Speaker 2: We have gotten non existent. But yeah, I mean again Iowa,
Speaker 2: they don't they don't give a crap. They're going to
Speaker 2: play their Iowa football game. They're going to try to
Speaker 2: keep this score low. I tend to think that Michigan
Speaker 2: is either going to win this game by twenty plus
Speaker 2: or Iowa's going to spring the outright offset. I don't
Speaker 2: see a scenario where it's like Iowa loses close because
Speaker 2: I feel like if Iowa is able to do what
Speaker 2: Iowa wants to do, that's this scenario where Iowa wins close,
Speaker 2: and if Iowa can't do what Iowa want If Michigan
Speaker 2: just asserts their will in Iowa, I think they're going
Speaker 2: to boat race Iowa.
Speaker 1: Now I've got a question here before we go to
Speaker 1: your lock of your hammer of the week, And I
Speaker 1: feel like this week a lot of favorites in your
Speaker 1: system's opinion are being overvalued. We have much many more
Speaker 1: games here, especially given what we've talked about, where you're
Speaker 1: saying that the favorite should not be valued by as
Speaker 1: much as they are and they should not be favored
Speaker 1: by that much. Is there a reason for that or
Speaker 1: do you think it's just how this week is falling,
Speaker 1: just simple variants.
Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's all case specific, right, but yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, you know some of these these ones that
Speaker 2: we've hit on, those teams are coming off of either
Speaker 2: good performances or they've looked good so far or like whatever.
Speaker 2: And so you know, Vegas is anticipating the market going
Speaker 2: a specific way, and I think that's where you see
Speaker 2: the couple points of discrepancy, or it's the other way
Speaker 2: of the opponent is a team that literally nobody wants
Speaker 2: to bet on, and so you you actively have to
Speaker 2: incentivize the market by you know, by by putting the
Speaker 2: tax on the other side or whatever to try to
Speaker 2: get some bets on that team, because the book is
Speaker 2: not trying to beat you. I think that's something out
Speaker 2: there that people don't really understand exactly. The book only
Speaker 2: wants fifty percent of the money on both sides. It's
Speaker 2: all they want. That is my goal.
Speaker 1: That's actually not quite true. That's a little bit of
Speaker 1: a misnomer. They don't want true fifty to fifty action.
Speaker 1: Books aren't afraid to take a position. What they really
Speaker 1: want to do is avoid having too much sharp liability
Speaker 1: on one side. Okay, Yeah, that's just my opinion on it.
Speaker 1: Like I could be completely wrong.
Speaker 2: Well yeah, I mean I'm just talking you know, Tree
Speaker 2: Top version of it. I mean, if the books had
Speaker 2: their drothers on every single game, it would be like,
Speaker 2: you know, it's like, you know, this game they would
Speaker 2: want fifty fifty action. That game they would want fifty
Speaker 2: fifty action. Of course, there's factors that are beyond that,
Speaker 2: but like, if the books had fifty to fifty action
Speaker 2: on every game from tomorrow until the end of time,
Speaker 2: they would make they would make amends because you're just
Speaker 2: getting the big on each one guaranteed money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you make a great point there. Now your final
Speaker 1: game on this slate and the Arthors Hammer of the
Speaker 1: week here, And I'm not gonna lie to you, buddy,
Speaker 1: I love you. It's been a great show we've been
Speaker 1: doing these last several weeks. But you have Ohio State
Speaker 1: and Rutgers here. The spread is forty one, and you
Speaker 1: say it should be only thirty two. This is Rutgers.
Speaker 1: We're talking about Rutgers. They're going in to the horseshoe here,
Speaker 1: and you think that this line is off by nine points.
Speaker 1: I do of Rutgers the Scarlet.
Speaker 2: Knights, Yeah, I do. I mean, you know it's it's
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to hold your nose to bet on Rutgers.
Speaker 2: But I feel like the line is egregiously inflated in
Speaker 2: this case. And you know, I mean, you both have
Speaker 2: the thing of everyone wants to bet on Ohio State,
Speaker 2: and Ohio States looked awesome in recent weeks. Everything we
Speaker 2: expected it more. And then Rutgers, who had looked okay
Speaker 2: in the first three weeks, they grinded out three wins.
Speaker 2: They started out three and all last week they got
Speaker 2: put into the Iowa blender and they ended up losing
Speaker 2: that game. Twenty seven to ten. They didn't get there
Speaker 2: the touchdown until the end of the game, so it
Speaker 2: was arguably even worse than that for you know, for
Speaker 2: them like offensively or whatever. But I feel like in
Speaker 2: this one, with how many points that is, I just
Speaker 2: feel like it's just too many points. I also think
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of like, I'm not sure that
Speaker 2: that I mean both, you know, a couple of different things.
Speaker 2: First of all, Ohio State is already you know, they've
Speaker 2: they've mentioned going back in September that defensively, they have
Speaker 2: not unveiled their whole defensive scheme, that they have purposely
Speaker 2: kept things a bit vanilla and save save some of
Speaker 2: the some of Jim Knowles's like wrinkles and stuff like
Speaker 2: that for later on in the season. You're not they
Speaker 2: going to unveil them for Rutgers, And they didn't have
Speaker 2: to last week again against Wisconsin because they found out
Speaker 2: right before that game that both the Wisconsin's offensive tackles
Speaker 2: were gonna miss it. So, I mean, they that one
Speaker 2: was almost in the bag before it started. And then
Speaker 2: you're interested in the relationships. I mean, it's gonna be
Speaker 2: the prerogative of day against Schiano but you wouldn't necessarily
Speaker 2: think at the end that you know, it's it's gonna
Speaker 2: be like you know, Day is going to be actively
Speaker 2: going to try to get like a fifty point win.
Speaker 2: This is a lot of points for a team in Rutgers.
Speaker 2: That is not pathetic anymore. You know, you don't put
Speaker 2: them down like where you have Colorado or you have
Speaker 2: like some of those just low end of the barrel
Speaker 2: type P five teams. They're better than that now. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, granted they're you know, they're probably gonna be
Speaker 2: a five and seven team or whatever. I just feel
Speaker 2: like that that that's too many points. So I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, it's one of those hold your nose and jump.
Speaker 2: But I don't think that Ohio State, like I said,
Speaker 2: is going to be putting their entire arsenal towards Rutgers.
Speaker 2: I do think Rutgers can stay within that number.
Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting game, my friend. I mean,
Speaker 1: I never want to, especially going into the horse whore.
Speaker 1: I don't want to be betting with the Scarlet Knights here.
Speaker 1: But I think you could very well be right. This
Speaker 1: Ohio State team. I don't feel like they've entirely figured
Speaker 1: everything out this season, if you know what I'm saying, Like,
Speaker 1: I think that there's still a lot to catch up
Speaker 1: on here with all of the receiving talent that they
Speaker 1: lost last year, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you've had you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba
Speaker 2: has been dealing with some of these like nagging injuries
Speaker 2: that you know, even you know that there's questions about
Speaker 2: the status before you know, each of like the past
Speaker 2: like four three games I suppose, but yeah, you have that,
Speaker 2: and then you're trying to work the other guys in.
Speaker 2: Julian Fleming had missed the first couple of games. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean they've been trying to figure it out, and
Speaker 2: they've been playing like gangbusters with the guys on the field,
Speaker 2: you know, of course, But yeah, I mean, we'll have
Speaker 2: to see. And this also feels like a game of
Speaker 2: where Ohio State has X amount of guys who are
Speaker 2: you know, somewhere between probable and questionable. Right now, this
Speaker 2: very much feels like a game where Ohio State is
Speaker 2: going to withhold the questionable guys and where whereas in
Speaker 2: you know, I mean against against one of the better
Speaker 2: Big Ten opponents, those guys would be playing so but
Speaker 2: that's something to keep an eye on this week, like
Speaker 2: you know, the injury reports and stuff. I don't think
Speaker 2: this is a game where you got to you got
Speaker 2: to better early because I mean, people are not going
Speaker 2: to be running out to bet Rutgers. So I feel
Speaker 2: like there's you're gonna get a couple more points if
Speaker 2: you wait till later in the week, and that will
Speaker 2: also give you time to check on the health status
Speaker 2: of some of those different guys who have that questionable
Speaker 2: designation right now.
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is going to do it for us
Speaker 1: here Thor. It has been an absolute pleasure as always.
Speaker 1: Of course, if you want more Thor analysis, you got
Speaker 1: to check back on Wednesday when he and Scott Bogman
Speaker 1: are going to be reviewing all of their favorite games
Speaker 1: of the week right here on Vetting Pros, right here
Speaker 1: on this podcast feed. If you're watching us on YouTube,
Speaker 1: you know the drill subscribe, hit that notification button, you'll
Speaker 1: get that notification for the video. And if you're listening
Speaker 1: to us on a podcast while you're all set, because
Speaker 1: that feed is going to come right to you. And
Speaker 1: then don't forget about Saturday mornings right in early seven
Speaker 1: am Pacific time, ten am Eastern. He is here with
Speaker 1: Mike Farrell breaking down their favorite numbers for the Game
Speaker 1: day Slate. Thor as always an absolute pleasure. If people
Speaker 1: want to follow you on the Twitter verse, where can
Speaker 1: they find you on the bird app?
Speaker 2: You can find me at thor ku.
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is gonna be it for us. Here
Speaker 1: again follow him at thor k You again an absolute pleasure,
Speaker 1: my friend. And guys, let's cash some tickets this week.
Speaker 1: Get your bets in now and we'll see you next week.
Speaker 1: Let's cash those tickets. Good luck everybody,