WEBVTT - Week 5 CFB Lookahead with Thor Nystrom (Ep 207)

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<v Speaker 1>Hello everyone, and welcome on into the college Football Look

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<v Speaker 1>aheadline show for betting Pros, where I Thomas Piola walk

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<v Speaker 1>you through all of our great God of thunder Thorne

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<v Speaker 1>Eistrom's favorite picks of this week's college football slate. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a good one here for and we had a great

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<v Speaker 1>week this week. Both of our teams now four and

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<v Speaker 1>oh Kansas and Syracuse and let's get right off started here.

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<v Speaker 1>Syracuse of course playing Wagner this week. My first ever

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<v Speaker 1>college football game. Actually went and saw Syracuse play them

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<v Speaker 1>in the Carrier Dome my freshman year. So we don't

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<v Speaker 1>actually have to talk about that game because it's an

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<v Speaker 1>FCS opponent. But Kansas is going to be going up

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<v Speaker 1>against Iowa State. They are two point favorites in this

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<v Speaker 1>There are three point favorites in this one. You have

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<v Speaker 1>it at two points. Let's talk about that game for

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<v Speaker 1>a second year. How are you? First off, how are

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<v Speaker 1>you doing and how are you feeling about this Kansas game.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing well, Thomas doing well. Yeah, And to be clear,

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<v Speaker 2>Iowa State favored by three somewhat surprising line, at least

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<v Speaker 2>in comparison to what you would have thought in the

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<v Speaker 2>preseason but it is more or less in line with

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<v Speaker 2>what my number is because now the Jayhawks have jumped

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<v Speaker 2>way up in the power rankings. Obviously last week they

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<v Speaker 2>beat Duke, who had been undefeated before that. Kansas had

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<v Speaker 2>won two impressive road games before that consecutively, West Virginia

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<v Speaker 2>and Houston. So I mean you have to yank them

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<v Speaker 2>up in the power rankings, and it just becomes a

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<v Speaker 2>question of how far Iowa State last week did not

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<v Speaker 2>acquit themselves super duper well at home against Baylor. A

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<v Speaker 2>Baylor a team that had had a bunch of injury

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<v Speaker 2>concerns and then had guys coming back stuff like that.

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<v Speaker 2>They hadn't played good offense up until play in Iowa State.

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<v Speaker 2>I think this is an objectively fair line, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>also a game for people that have a conviction on

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<v Speaker 2>either Kansas or Iowa State, this would be the game

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<v Speaker 2>to play at your flag. But just as far as

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<v Speaker 2>the marketplace, this is a fair number.

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<v Speaker 1>I completely understand here. But hey, we have to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about our teams first. I'm very excited for the Natty

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<v Speaker 1>between us and I'm very excited for college game Day

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<v Speaker 1>in a couple of weeks. I need NC State to

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<v Speaker 1>beat Clemson in Florida State and for us to just

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<v Speaker 1>cut through our next two games and get on to

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<v Speaker 1>NC State versus Syracuse undefeated in the Dome. Very fun

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<v Speaker 1>potential matchup for college game Day here. But let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about a couple of the games that you have a

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<v Speaker 1>big discrepancy on between you and the book, starting with

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<v Speaker 1>Louisville versus Boston College. Again, most of these games not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be against the headline grabbing teams because this is

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<v Speaker 1>where the value is. And you've got this spread at eleven,

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<v Speaker 1>the spread actually existing at sixteen and a half in

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<v Speaker 1>favor of Boston College. Here.

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<v Speaker 2>No Louisville, Yeah, yeah, Louisville favored by sixteen and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>But yeah, it's tough because with Boston College, I've yanked

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<v Speaker 2>him down and my power rankings about as far as

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<v Speaker 2>I think I objectively can, and the marketplace is still

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<v Speaker 2>fading them even harder than that. I tried to grab

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<v Speaker 2>Boston College last week and failed. That was probably my

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<v Speaker 2>worst pick of the week, trying to take them against

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<v Speaker 2>Florida State. It turned out that Jordan Travis play and

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<v Speaker 2>then that thing went up in smoke. But Boston College

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<v Speaker 2>has all kinds of problems, mainly on offense. That the

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<v Speaker 2>huge one is their offensive line, which a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>years ago and you know then going back several years

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<v Speaker 2>had actually been really good. It was one of the

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<v Speaker 2>things the program did consistently well. But that unit is

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<v Speaker 2>absolutely created and it's one of those things where that's

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<v Speaker 2>wasting what is good talent. Like at the other positions,

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<v Speaker 2>like Phil Jerkobek is probably going to be drafted even

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<v Speaker 2>though he's having this terrible season because of his offensive line,

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<v Speaker 2>and Zay Flowers, his best receiver, probably going to be

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<v Speaker 2>drafted too. They did have a season ending injury to report.

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<v Speaker 2>I believe it was to their defensive end, so they're

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<v Speaker 2>also having some to their best defensive lineman, so they're

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<v Speaker 2>also having some injury concerns as well. This is a

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<v Speaker 2>really tough one because I do not like Louisville. I

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<v Speaker 2>like I look for opportunities to fade Louisville, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>also exceedingly hard to trust Boston College. And like I said,

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<v Speaker 2>I tried last week and it didn't work out for me.

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<v Speaker 2>That my system still is showing the value on Boston College,

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<v Speaker 2>even with how far I pulled them down in my

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<v Speaker 2>power rank case. I'm not sure yet though if I'll

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<v Speaker 2>end up buying a ticket on that if I can

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<v Speaker 2>ride another one with Boston College. But that's what the week.

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<v Speaker 2>As far as handicapping, let me.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell you, I have a bias against Boston College because

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<v Speaker 1>they did not even get back to me with my

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<v Speaker 1>college application. All that's hey, it worked out in the end.

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<v Speaker 1>I am very happy with my school choice. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what school I was going to choose between with Syracuse

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<v Speaker 1>would have been a hard decision because of the weather.

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<v Speaker 1>USC ended up denying me, so i had no choice

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<v Speaker 1>whatsoever to make, and I'm very happy with how it

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<v Speaker 1>all shook out. But USC this week is going on

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<v Speaker 1>up against Arizona State. The sun Devil's getting twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>and a half points on the road here in Los Angeles.

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<v Speaker 1>Where are you going in this one? Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>this line is where it should be.

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<v Speaker 2>More or less? Yeah? I mean my addressed line on

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<v Speaker 2>is is twenty. But you also, Arizona State is a

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<v Speaker 2>big time fade at this point, a big time so

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<v Speaker 2>they obviously they fired herm Edwards and last week. Generally,

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<v Speaker 2>in the first week after you fired the coach, that's

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<v Speaker 2>when you're gonna get the better effort, and statistically after

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<v Speaker 2>that the team depreciates a bit. Arizona State, despite that,

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<v Speaker 2>did not cover what was a pretty big number against

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<v Speaker 2>Utah last week. They got close. I think they lost

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<v Speaker 2>by twenty one points, and they were like closed as

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<v Speaker 2>like sixteen and a half point sixteen and a half

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<v Speaker 2>something like that point underdogs, But they don't look good

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<v Speaker 2>at all, and obviously they're they're trending down. USC did

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<v Speaker 2>not look great for large swathet swatch swath is swat

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<v Speaker 2>swaths swaths. Yeah, okay, we were going to get there

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<v Speaker 2>of that game against Oregon State on Saturday night, but

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<v Speaker 2>you've got to give enormous credit to USC for pulling

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<v Speaker 2>that one out because they had to play that game

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<v Speaker 2>the way Oregon State wanted it to be played, not

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<v Speaker 2>the way that USC wanted it to be played. It

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<v Speaker 2>turned out to be this low scoring, methodical kind of

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<v Speaker 2>game that USC was able to pull out by a

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<v Speaker 2>field goal. USC didn't cover that game in Core Vallas,

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<v Speaker 2>but I actually think that's a super impressive win because

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<v Speaker 2>Oregon State is what you know, way better this year,

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<v Speaker 2>et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean I tend to

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<v Speaker 2>think that USC is going to roll over Arizona State,

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<v Speaker 2>But twenty three points is a lot, although I by

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<v Speaker 2>the time this thing gets to kick, I would imagine

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be twenty four and a half. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>No, if you think that's the case, should we be

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<v Speaker 1>betting it now? Or is the line still not what

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<v Speaker 1>you think it should be and we shouldn't be even investing.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you could certainly think about it. For me,

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<v Speaker 2>that's probably a stay away game just because of how

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<v Speaker 2>big that number is, and objectively it is inflated, but

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<v Speaker 2>you can explain the inflation rate. And so then you

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<v Speaker 2>have to decide, like can I bet? Like am I

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<v Speaker 2>able to show confidence in putting my money behind that

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<v Speaker 2>Arizona State team that doesn't seem to have any fight now,

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<v Speaker 2>that doesn't have any schematic advantages, their talent level is down,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, et cetera, et cetera. Against this USC team

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<v Speaker 2>that when they played bad teams, they've been you know,

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<v Speaker 2>rolling them and then they were able to pull that

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<v Speaker 2>game out last week. The USC has been playing these

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<v Speaker 2>teams that played different ways, you know, starting out the season,

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<v Speaker 2>and they're winning each time. Stanford wanted to slow it

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<v Speaker 2>down against them, they beat them. Rice did it the

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<v Speaker 2>week before, and they slap Rice around. Rice is actually

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit better than we thought they were going

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<v Speaker 2>to be. The Rice upside Houston yesterday, and then this

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<v Speaker 2>past game against Oregon State they were able to play

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<v Speaker 2>the way Oregon State wanted to play and they beat

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<v Speaker 2>them as well. So, I mean, USC, you know, was

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<v Speaker 2>still trying to get a feel on exactly what you know.

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<v Speaker 2>Are they at top five team? Are they a top

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<v Speaker 2>ten team? Are they a top twenty team? You know

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<v Speaker 2>with the power ranking stuff like that. But for me

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<v Speaker 2>on this line, I'm not going to touch you. At

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<v Speaker 2>least early in the week. I'll see what the market does,

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<v Speaker 2>I'll do my handicap, and then I'll make a decision

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<v Speaker 2>later in the week.

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<v Speaker 1>How about you of a going to the other Arizona

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<v Speaker 1>team here, they're laying eighteen points against Colorado. What are

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<v Speaker 1>you thinking in this one? Is this line where it

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<v Speaker 1>should be or is this a game that you're really

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<v Speaker 1>interested in betting.

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<v Speaker 2>It's another one where the market or Vegas and anticipation

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<v Speaker 2>of what the market is going to do, had to

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<v Speaker 2>inflate a line, and probably justifiably, Colorado is absolute garbage,

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<v Speaker 2>absolute garbage. Ucla last week didn't even have a full

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<v Speaker 2>compliment of players, and they were still fairly easily able

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<v Speaker 2>to cover twenty one and a half points on the

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<v Speaker 2>road at Colorado. Arizona is better this year. Like I

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<v Speaker 2>think some people, if they haven't paid like a ton

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<v Speaker 2>of attention of the first month of the season, they

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<v Speaker 2>only they're only going off their memory. They might get

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<v Speaker 2>some sticker shock looking at this line. Arizona be in

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<v Speaker 2>favor by eighteen. I do think you can justify it

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<v Speaker 2>just by how well Arizona's played last week. I was

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<v Speaker 2>expecting a little bit better from Arizona playing Cal, just

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<v Speaker 2>because Cal's a limited team. But Arizona had impressed me

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<v Speaker 2>in the weeks before that. They beat the FCS's best team,

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<v Speaker 2>North Dakota State. North Akota State, a team who's better

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<v Speaker 2>than a whole bunch of different FBS teams, and then

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<v Speaker 2>you know, beating San Diego State in the opening game

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<v Speaker 2>on the road by three possessions. I believe stuff like that.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's another one where do you want to hold

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<v Speaker 2>your nose on a really crappy team on the idea

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<v Speaker 2>that you're getting a few points of line value or

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<v Speaker 2>you know, go the other direction. For me, it's probably

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<v Speaker 2>another one where I'm staying away.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel that, but maybe this game could tempt your

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<v Speaker 1>tempt your fancy a little more. It's a wild shoot

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<v Speaker 1>out between two massive names in college football. James Madison

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<v Speaker 1>laying twenty against Texas State. Who you got?

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<v Speaker 2>I Well, both these teams are on different you know,

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<v Speaker 2>like different points of the polarity are by teams. For me,

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<v Speaker 2>for sure, I do have to apologize to James Madison.

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<v Speaker 2>Is clear from over the summer that I was wrong

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<v Speaker 2>about them. They were a team that I was just

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit lower on than the marketplace heading into

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<v Speaker 2>the season because it was an FCS team jumping up

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, to the FBS their first year in

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<v Speaker 2>the FBS, and you go back, like the last ten

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<v Speaker 2>to fifteen years, the teams that have done that historically

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<v Speaker 2>their first year they take the step back, which you

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<v Speaker 2>would intuitively think James Madison has not. They have not

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<v Speaker 2>so far. And beating Appalachian State was a real feather

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<v Speaker 2>in the cap. James Madison had slapped around Middle Tennessee

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<v Speaker 2>and the opener, and I was higher on Middle Tennessee

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<v Speaker 2>coming into the year than the market place and so

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<v Speaker 2>that that was my first one of like, am I

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<v Speaker 2>wrong about Middle Tennessee or am I wrong about James Madison?

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<v Speaker 2>And it turns out that I was wrong about James Madison.

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<v Speaker 2>So I have definitely toggled James Madison up in my

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<v Speaker 2>power rankings. But Texas State can also do some different stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>They're a team that, like when they played the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>power fed teams or whatever, the system can't overcome the

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<v Speaker 2>talent discrepancy and they you know, it's basically like the

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<v Speaker 2>nerd in high school getting his hands tied by in

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<v Speaker 2>his back and getting shoved in a locker. But like

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<v Speaker 2>when they play the teams that are around them in talent,

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<v Speaker 2>that's when the scheme and the way that they practice

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<v Speaker 2>and the conditioning can start to benefit them because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>they play up tempo. Spivatal is now I believe in

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 2>his fourth year there, you know, and they can get

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<v Speaker 2>the ball in the hands of their playmakers. They brought

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<v Speaker 2>in a quarterback too, that there was a better fit

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 2>for spivotal system in Lane Hatcher kid who came from

0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:01.200
<v Speaker 2>Arkansas State. As far as this number of it's you know,

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's a lot of points to lay on

0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.040
<v Speaker 2>with James Madison. I think I would probably go the

0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.520
<v Speaker 2>other way on this one and lean towards the underdog

0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 2>with Texas State. With how many points you're getting. My

0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.640
<v Speaker 2>justin line on it is James Madison minus fifteen point

0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.600
<v Speaker 2>five and this one's you can explain the inflation on

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.200
<v Speaker 2>this one just by James Madison coming up that win

0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:27.280
<v Speaker 2>against appleach and State. But you would sort of anticipate

0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.400
<v Speaker 2>after the biggest win of their young FBS life to

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.080
<v Speaker 2>this point that the effort the next week you might

0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:34.600
<v Speaker 2>have a little bit of a letdown spot.

0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.720
<v Speaker 1>I feel that although the Constitution himself, James Madison might

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.320
<v Speaker 1>be coming for you on that, but I'm with you.

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I think Texas State is going to have a good

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 1>chance here. That app State upset was really something, but man,

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.559
<v Speaker 1>app State collapsed in that second half. That was a

0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 1>ridiculous game, man.

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.240
<v Speaker 2>Well, and also that was a really good spot for

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.960
<v Speaker 2>James Madison, an underrated one because it was a bad

0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 2>spot for Apple Aachen Sate. Apple Lachen State, a team

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 2>that had played in the train with UNC and then

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:04.280
<v Speaker 2>they had had the upset of A and M and

0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 2>like you know, all the different things Apple Lagen State

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:10.559
<v Speaker 2>had had this wild season up up until that already.

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.720
<v Speaker 2>It was like they'd already played out like two seasons.

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 2>Like in those those first three games, the other one

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.960
<v Speaker 2>being Troy, where you had all of college football's eyes

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.080
<v Speaker 2>on you. You came out flatt in that one because

0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.760
<v Speaker 2>that was another bad situational spot and then you had

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 2>to furiously come from behind to pull that one out

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 2>in front of your home, your home fans. Then the

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.040
<v Speaker 2>next week you turn around and face this team that

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:37.080
<v Speaker 2>was ANFCS steam last year. I don't think that Apple

0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.320
<v Speaker 2>Ach and State was happy with their effort in that

0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.600
<v Speaker 2>game coming out of it, and so yeah, I think

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 2>that the result of it probably flattered James Madison, even

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 2>though I don't want to take away from James Madison

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 2>what they did because they have been super impressive so far.

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.920
<v Speaker 1>Now, this next game up here, Florida International takes on

0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.440
<v Speaker 1>New Mexico State. New Mexico State late in fifteen and

0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 1>a half, and I'm noticing a trend here through some

0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:06.079
<v Speaker 1>of these games with these home favorites that are very hefty.

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 1>You're thinking that a lot of these lines are inflated.

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>This is another one.

0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 2>It yeah, sure it I mean, New Mexico State being

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:18.199
<v Speaker 2>favored against anyone in the FBS by over two touchdowns

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 2>is wild, like if you've watched New Mexico State. But

0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 2>this one is a I think it's a direct response

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 2>to last week, like because they played Hawaii last week

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 2>at home and they ended up boat racing them. It

0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.720
<v Speaker 2>turns out Hawaii is probably the second worst team in

0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:38.040
<v Speaker 2>the FBS, because the worst one it's FIU. So, I mean,

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Vegas had to bring that one up a bit because

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 2>New Mexico State showed that they could win by margin

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.880
<v Speaker 2>against a very, very, very bad team, but they were

0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 2>greatly aided by Hawaii in that game. New Mexico State

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 2>couldn't throw that much on Hawaii, and even the rushing stats,

0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.280
<v Speaker 2>it was like the efficiency wasn't there. It was just

0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 2>like they were just running for these long touchdowns because

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 2>Hawaii can't tackle or fill the gaps. So, I mean,

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 2>can can you get at least competency out of FIU?

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 2>We'll see about that ask It's a tough ass. I mean, again,

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:15.480
<v Speaker 2>they are the lowest team in the FBS in my

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 2>power ratings, they're even lower than Hawaii. Still, Hawaii may

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 2>have taggled down to one thirty at this point, but

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:25.080
<v Speaker 2>FIU remains what one thirty one. Fau's got problems on

0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 2>both sides of the ball. But for me, it's tough

0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 2>because this is sort of my same take about last week,

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 2>which was wrong. You know about the New Mexico State

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 2>line against Hawaii, But for me, it's it's the same

0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.720
<v Speaker 2>case in this one. It's just more inflated against potentially

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 2>a little bit worse of a team. But fifteen and

0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 2>a half points having to lay that with New Mexico State,

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.280
<v Speaker 2>it's a bridge too far for me, knowing how bad

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 2>that team has.

0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I feel that I mean when it comes to Hawaii.

0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:58.480
<v Speaker 1>I missed the Cole McDonald Days because I remember d

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Jen Krik, Cole Brennan, Brennan rest in peace and peace,

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.440
<v Speaker 1>Rest in peace, indeed. But I missed the Cole McDonald

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Days because that holds a special place in my heart.

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 1>We had a very DJN Christmas where a couple of

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.520
<v Speaker 1>my former co workers and I went down on the strip,

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.720
<v Speaker 1>toreed a bunch of different casinos, hitting different table games

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:23.400
<v Speaker 1>and such, and we capped off Christmas Eve watching Hawaii

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 1>in the Hawaii Bowl and trying to set up a

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.800
<v Speaker 1>nice meddle with Cole McDonald there. The man had a farm.

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 1>You have to trust him. But that Hawaii team is

0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.680
<v Speaker 1>just absolutely pitiful, can't even take advantage of the time

0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:41.200
<v Speaker 1>difference in massive travel. But this Florida International team, like

0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 1>you said, is awfully terrible. I don't know about laying

0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>with New Mexico State either. But let's talk about some

0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 1>of the bigger teams here. Now we do have a

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:51.520
<v Speaker 1>couple games. There are a couple teams on rest, but

0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 1>we still have a couple of games to talk about.

0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 1>By far, one of the marquee matchups here is going

0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.440
<v Speaker 1>to be Alabama versus Arkansas. It's gonna be fifteen and

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.640
<v Speaker 1>a half in favor of Bama. What have you thought

0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.520
<v Speaker 1>about Arkansas so far this season? And do you think

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.240
<v Speaker 1>that this line is where it should be. Fifteen and

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>a half doesn't feel like a lot of points to

0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 1>land Abama game.

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:14.240
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't. But it's funny. My system landed exactly on

0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 2>fifteen and a half, which it doesn't do a lot

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 2>because you know the veiggest numbers, they got to either

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:20.840
<v Speaker 2>be on the whole number on the half, and mine

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 2>could be on any of the tents or whatever. And

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:26.360
<v Speaker 2>it landed smack dab on that. I do think it's

0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.680
<v Speaker 2>a fair number. I was hoping for a little bit

0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 2>better from Arkansas last week against A and M. I

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.199
<v Speaker 2>didn't I didn't bet it just because you know that

0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.359
<v Speaker 2>number two fell right on my thing and the game

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 2>result ended right around where the spread was or whatever.

0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.280
<v Speaker 2>But I do trust kJ Jefferson. I like him as

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 2>a quarterback. I like the running backs that they have

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:50.960
<v Speaker 2>there as well, and it seems like they've they've done

0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 2>an okay job figuring out how to sort of, how

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.639
<v Speaker 2>do I say, is spread the usage that used to

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.879
<v Speaker 2>just be funneled towards Alon Burks sort of around the

0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 2>skill guys, you know, and then a little bit more

0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.919
<v Speaker 2>to kJ and to keep the offense going. You know,

0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:11.120
<v Speaker 2>that was probably my singular concern about the Hogs over

0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.200
<v Speaker 2>the offseason, was you lose this guy that you funneled,

0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.760
<v Speaker 2>you know, X percentage of your offense to. You know,

0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.680
<v Speaker 2>how are you going to do with that? The the

0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.200
<v Speaker 2>thing that concerns me a bit is their secondary and

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.159
<v Speaker 2>they've had health concerns there, et cetera. Texas A and

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.360
<v Speaker 2>M was not a team that was equipped to take

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 2>advantage of that both because of their bad quarterback play,

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:36.000
<v Speaker 2>and then they really only have the one sort of

0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:38.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't really want to call an Ia Smith a

0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:42.240
<v Speaker 2>receiver because he's both he and Odd Chane are more

0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.439
<v Speaker 2>offensive weapons than they are running back or wide receiver,

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:48.119
<v Speaker 2>but like you know, their A and m's receiving core

0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:51.920
<v Speaker 2>is limited. And then an Ia Smith suffered very unfortunately

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 2>a season ending injury during during that Arkansas game. But

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:57.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, Arkansas, do they have enough to keep this

0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 2>game within two touchdowns? I think so? But this the

0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 2>I mean yeah, theoretically, yeah, but the secondary issues are

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 2>gonna come to the four here potentially if they're not

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 2>patched up. Because Alabama's passing game is I mean, obviously

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 2>as talented as any other passing game this side of

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 2>Ohio State, and now it appears to even have ticked up,

0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:23.399
<v Speaker 2>because there was those couple of games where it had

0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 2>played down and Saban was doing weird things with the

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:30.919
<v Speaker 2>depth chart, like he was playing the true freshman apprentice.

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.919
<v Speaker 2>He wasn't playing a couple of the older receivers, and

0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:36.639
<v Speaker 2>it was weird just because it was at the beginning

0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.639
<v Speaker 2>of the season and Bryce Young did not appear to

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 2>be on the same page with his receiving corps at

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:43.919
<v Speaker 2>all times, and he you know, he played down in

0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:46.919
<v Speaker 2>the Texas game, stuff like that. You know, it was

0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:51.160
<v Speaker 2>Vanderbilt last week. But things were looking good for Alabama

0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:54.320
<v Speaker 2>and not only that. Ja Cory Brooks for instance, a

0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:57.600
<v Speaker 2>guy who strangely, over the first three games, I don't

0:19:57.600 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 2>know if he was in the doghouse or what was

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.000
<v Speaker 2>going going on there, but he was expected to be

0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.679
<v Speaker 2>like their number two receiver this year, and he was

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.440
<v Speaker 2>on a milk carton over the first three games. Well,

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 2>last week they finally play the kid, and he absolutely

0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 2>torched Vanderbilt. You had like six catch one hundred and

0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.119
<v Speaker 2>twenty five yards some like that, two touchdowns. So I

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 2>feel like Alabama is getting a better sense of its

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:22.160
<v Speaker 2>receiving cores and how the pieces work together because they

0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 2>have several different players in that receiving corps who have

0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.080
<v Speaker 2>the disparate skill sets, you know, like you know, sort

0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:31.119
<v Speaker 2>of like a basketball team, you know, where you have

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:32.879
<v Speaker 2>your point guard, you have your small forward, you have

0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:35.200
<v Speaker 2>your center, et cetera. And I think that that Saban's

0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.120
<v Speaker 2>getting a better idea that now you're getting Harroll back

0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.720
<v Speaker 2>to the kid, they had brought in from Louisville. He's

0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.159
<v Speaker 2>the deep speed merchant. He was supposed to be the

0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 2>analog for Jamison Williams. So now that receiving corp is

0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:48.440
<v Speaker 2>going to go way up. That's the key to this game.

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:50.879
<v Speaker 2>Ken Arkansas defend Alabama's passing attack.

0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh, I am frightened of a learning Nick Saban and

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.720
<v Speaker 1>if he can fully harness the potential of this receiving corps,

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:00.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm even more scared. I said, I know how Brice

0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Young will do in the NFL, but in the college game,

0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Bam is still a tough out. I mean, obviously that's

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:10.560
<v Speaker 1>the coldest take imaginable. But uh, the only team that

0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.480
<v Speaker 1>looks better than them so far has been Georgia. They

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:17.120
<v Speaker 1>are headed to Missouri to take on Missou. Here as

0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:20.920
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven and a half point favorites. Do you think

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:21.840
<v Speaker 1>this line is right?

0:21:23.160 --> 0:21:23.920
<v Speaker 2>I do today?

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.840
<v Speaker 1>Georgia, that's my bigger question here? Can you ever fade Georgia?

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:31.200
<v Speaker 2>Well in this one, it's another I'll probably be staying

0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:33.600
<v Speaker 2>away from it, just with where the line is. My

0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:36.159
<v Speaker 2>line on it is twenty four and a half. Georgia

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.760
<v Speaker 2>by twenty four and a half. But there's no chance

0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:41.200
<v Speaker 2>that I'm gonna I'm gonna take the points with Missouri.

0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 2>I've seen some of this Missouri team on uh yesterday

0:21:45.359 --> 0:21:48.080
<v Speaker 2>on Saturday. You know, when the audiences listened on Saturday,

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:53.199
<v Speaker 2>Missouri's playing Auburn, and Auburn did everything they could to

0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:56.720
<v Speaker 2>let Missouri win that game, and Missouri just wouldn't take it.

0:21:57.119 --> 0:22:00.800
<v Speaker 2>And the hilarious thing was it was for way more

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 2>than a football game. There was reports that Auburn was

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:07.880
<v Speaker 2>going to fire Brian Harson immediately after that game if

0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.639
<v Speaker 2>they lost, and it very much appeared like Missouri was

0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:14.240
<v Speaker 2>going to win it because it very much appeared like

0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:17.600
<v Speaker 2>Auburn did not want to win it. And then despite themselves,

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:21.320
<v Speaker 2>Auburn somehow managed to pull that thing out, despite all

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:24.160
<v Speaker 2>these shenanigans and the fact they couldn't throw the ball

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 2>and stuff like that. I'm not impressed with Missouri at all,

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:30.679
<v Speaker 2>and the fact that they kept it close with Auburn

0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:33.440
<v Speaker 2>on the road. I think in past years you'd give

0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:35.359
<v Speaker 2>them a little bit of a feather in the cap

0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:38.600
<v Speaker 2>for that. Not this year, not with that Auburn team.

0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.480
<v Speaker 2>That that was the sort of thing where you remember

0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.639
<v Speaker 2>last week, Thomas, when they Arizona State fired herm and

0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:46.679
<v Speaker 2>then they started to come out the stories of like,

0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:49.199
<v Speaker 2>you know, the assistants hated him so much that they

0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:52.760
<v Speaker 2>were given the game plans to the opposing coaches. I

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:55.240
<v Speaker 2>don't know if that was true or not, but like,

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, you almost started to think, like, is that

0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 2>what Auburn is doing with you know, trying to get

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:03.080
<v Speaker 2>hardest and how they they given the game plan away

0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:06.239
<v Speaker 2>and Missouri still couldn't capitalize on it. Definitely do not

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:10.480
<v Speaker 2>trust Missouri. Certainly do trust Georgia, but that it's a

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:13.080
<v Speaker 2>big line. You have four touchdowns, that's a big line

0:23:13.080 --> 0:23:14.200
<v Speaker 2>to lay on the run.

0:23:14.600 --> 0:23:19.240
<v Speaker 1>That I still can't fait Georgia, especially against missoo. But

0:23:19.280 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 1>I have bias there. That's a j school rivalry with Syracuse.

0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:26.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to question you, but this Georgia team,

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:30.399
<v Speaker 1>this defense looks so good man. I I don't know

0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:32.679
<v Speaker 1>who other than of course Syracuse or Kansas is going

0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:33.640
<v Speaker 1>to be able to top them.

0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:36.920
<v Speaker 2>You know, yeah, only the elite teams. Well, but we'll

0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:39.440
<v Speaker 2>have to see in the playoffs when those three.

0:23:39.400 --> 0:23:41.920
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, we'll have to see which one draws the short

0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:44.120
<v Speaker 1>straw and has to take them on. But how about

0:23:44.119 --> 0:23:46.920
<v Speaker 1>an Armed Forces game. Here, my friend, Yeah, we've got

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.439
<v Speaker 1>sixteen points being laid by Air Force over the Navy here.

0:23:50.800 --> 0:23:52.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, these games are always one of the most

0:23:52.600 --> 0:23:56.240
<v Speaker 1>interesting rivalries in sports because of you know, everything that's

0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 1>going into this. Who are you taking in Navy versus

0:23:59.240 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Air Force?

0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 2>I would I think I would lean towards taking Air Force.

0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:09.320
<v Speaker 2>The only small caveat on that. And this is something

0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:11.280
<v Speaker 2>that I'm gonna be looking into over the next couple

0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:15.679
<v Speaker 2>of days. Is the first three weeks, Navy looked like

0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:19.040
<v Speaker 2>one of the five worst teams in the FBS. They

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 2>looked really, really bad. One of their losses was at

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.840
<v Speaker 2>home to Delaware. They weren't competitive in some of the

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 2>other you know, like in the in the other couple ones,

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:29.760
<v Speaker 2>and you know, you were wondering, is this gonna be

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:34.440
<v Speaker 2>another nightmare year for ken Yamatalolo, and and you had

0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:36.159
<v Speaker 2>the thing of you know, we talked about this on

0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 2>previous shows, Thomas how Over the offseason, the NCAA had

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:43.480
<v Speaker 2>banned cut blocks outside the tackle box, which only hurt

0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 2>triple option teams pretty much because they were the teams

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:48.520
<v Speaker 2>that ubiquitously did it, like whereas a part of what

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:52.280
<v Speaker 2>they actually did, and it seemed like that was actively

0:24:52.320 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 2>destroying the Navy team. But then on Saturday, like I,

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:58.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, I already had stuck a you know, like

0:24:58.320 --> 0:25:01.680
<v Speaker 2>an industrial size fork into the back of this Navy team.

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 2>And then I'm just watching the games mine in my

0:25:04.000 --> 0:25:06.680
<v Speaker 2>own business, and I look at the scoreboard and they're

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:10.120
<v Speaker 2>given East Carolina game and they end up pulling it out.

0:25:10.160 --> 0:25:12.840
<v Speaker 2>I believe in double overtime. Navy ends up winning on

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.600
<v Speaker 2>the road at EASYU. EASYU is a legitimate team. This year.

0:25:16.640 --> 0:25:19.119
<v Speaker 2>They're gonna make a ballgame, So I mean that was

0:25:19.160 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 2>all legitimate went was that one game of easy? You

0:25:22.840 --> 0:25:27.160
<v Speaker 2>just overlooking the opponent? Or has Navy figured out how

0:25:27.200 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 2>to play under these new rules? Sometimes it does take

0:25:31.080 --> 0:25:34.119
<v Speaker 2>some of these triple option teams a little bit, you know,

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:37.240
<v Speaker 2>like I don't want to use the metaphor with you know,

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:40.639
<v Speaker 2>with with with Navy, but getting their sea legs under them.

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:43.359
<v Speaker 2>And sometimes they need that because you know, you have

0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:47.440
<v Speaker 2>the guys that graduate typically for them the service academies,

0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 2>they're replacing more starters than the typical team because it's

0:25:50.680 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 2>usually like the upperclassmen and then they'll graduate, you know, YadA, YadA.

0:25:54.720 --> 0:25:58.480
<v Speaker 2>So that's the big question on this one is the

0:25:58.560 --> 0:26:02.080
<v Speaker 2>Navy side. The Air Force team is very consistent. I

0:26:02.119 --> 0:26:05.680
<v Speaker 2>mean they're just good. So like with them, you feel

0:26:05.720 --> 0:26:09.399
<v Speaker 2>pretty good about what you're getting there. Navy's the grab big.

0:26:09.800 --> 0:26:13.040
<v Speaker 2>If you get the first three weeks Navy, they're going

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:16.840
<v Speaker 2>to get absolutely annihilated. If you get anything close to

0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:19.359
<v Speaker 2>last week Navy, this is going to be a close game.

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:23.440
<v Speaker 2>And Thomas as you know that like the best bet

0:26:23.520 --> 0:26:28.720
<v Speaker 2>in sports betting going back like twenty years is just

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:32.359
<v Speaker 2>just blindly betting the under in every game between service

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 2>academies because the cloud is always running and the against

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:39.160
<v Speaker 2>the spread record on that is absolutely insane. And there's

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:43.439
<v Speaker 2>a corollary to that rule, which is if one of

0:26:43.480 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 2>the teams is favored by double digits, you grab the dog.

0:26:47.240 --> 0:26:50.080
<v Speaker 2>So in terms of that, that would lean towards Navy.

0:26:50.119 --> 0:26:51.800
<v Speaker 2>But again, this is a game I'm going to look

0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 2>into the next couple of days. I you know, my

0:26:56.680 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 2>number on that game is nineteen, So my system certainly

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:03.679
<v Speaker 2>leaning Air four. The circumstances and history would suggest Navy.

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:08.040
<v Speaker 2>The early season stuff again, first three weeks not Navy.

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:10.680
<v Speaker 2>Last week would suggest Navy. So it's just a game

0:27:10.680 --> 0:27:12.040
<v Speaker 2>you got to get into on the handicap.

0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:15.119
<v Speaker 1>Now, how about another big one here between two big

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:19.080
<v Speaker 1>ten teams. We got Michigan going up against Iowa. If

0:27:19.119 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 1>you want to lay ten points with the visiting Michigan,

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:24.880
<v Speaker 1>well that's what you got to do, because they are

0:27:24.880 --> 0:27:28.720
<v Speaker 1>ten point favorites. Here are you taking Iowa or is

0:27:28.760 --> 0:27:30.119
<v Speaker 1>this number right where it should be?

0:27:32.040 --> 0:27:34.240
<v Speaker 2>It's funny, this is the second one we talked about

0:27:34.240 --> 0:27:37.840
<v Speaker 2>where my system was right on the number. My number

0:27:37.840 --> 0:27:40.960
<v Speaker 2>on this game was ten flat. This line actually opened

0:27:40.960 --> 0:27:44.280
<v Speaker 2>at Michigan minus nine, and then it toggled. The ten

0:27:44.480 --> 0:27:50.080
<v Speaker 2>was sitting right on my number. It's I mean, look,

0:27:50.480 --> 0:27:54.359
<v Speaker 2>I'm an Iowa graduate, so take what I'm about to

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:56.480
<v Speaker 2>say with the grain of salt, but I would lean

0:27:56.680 --> 0:28:01.080
<v Speaker 2>towards Iowa, and the way that I see it is you.

0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:03.919
<v Speaker 2>Iowa once, of course, wants to ugly the game up,

0:28:03.960 --> 0:28:07.000
<v Speaker 2>wants to turn every game into a rock fight, and

0:28:07.000 --> 0:28:09.919
<v Speaker 2>Michigan doesn't have the offensive talent or doesn't even have

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:14.240
<v Speaker 2>the offensive scheme. I think we're they're able on a defense,

0:28:14.280 --> 0:28:16.640
<v Speaker 2>It's as good as Iowa's because Iowa has the top

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:19.080
<v Speaker 2>ten defense to be able to put up a bunch

0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:21.439
<v Speaker 2>of points where you feel comfortable laying double is on

0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:24.800
<v Speaker 2>the road of them. I do feel it's a fair line, absolutely,

0:28:25.359 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 2>but circumstantially in game script wise, I would rather have Iowa.

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:32.520
<v Speaker 2>I think if the line is ten or above, and

0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:36.520
<v Speaker 2>if you're interested in Iowa, it's probably a circumstance where

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 2>you want to wait until later in the week because

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.360
<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine that the betting market is going to

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:44.520
<v Speaker 2>be betting on Iowa this week. I can't imagine they're

0:28:44.520 --> 0:28:46.600
<v Speaker 2>going to be like a popular pack. So I mean,

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:49.400
<v Speaker 2>like later in the week you can probably get you know,

0:28:49.440 --> 0:28:52.160
<v Speaker 2>certainly ten and a half or a little bit higher.

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:55.920
<v Speaker 2>But this game's funny because over the summer, I got

0:28:55.960 --> 0:28:59.080
<v Speaker 2>this buddy in town, and you know, I live in Minneapolis,

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:01.680
<v Speaker 2>but I got this buddy named Steve and he's he's

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:05.120
<v Speaker 2>a Michigan alum, and he's an enormous Michigan homer, and

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:07.920
<v Speaker 2>we were talking, uh one of these summer nights, we

0:29:07.960 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 2>were having some beers, and he asked me what I

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:12.640
<v Speaker 2>thought the line for this game was going to be,

0:29:13.520 --> 0:29:18.120
<v Speaker 2>and so I tossed out a number, and he tossed

0:29:18.120 --> 0:29:22.360
<v Speaker 2>out a number, and we began negotiating on what what

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 2>are what would become a bet that we were going

0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:27.840
<v Speaker 2>to make on this game, and unfortunately for me, I

0:29:27.920 --> 0:29:32.640
<v Speaker 2>stopped the negotiation at I accepted Iowa plus six. So

0:29:32.800 --> 0:29:35.280
<v Speaker 2>it with on that one from over the summer, I'm

0:29:35.320 --> 0:29:38.120
<v Speaker 2>getting the short end of the stick. But you know

0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 2>around that time that over the summer, that's about where

0:29:40.920 --> 0:29:44.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, the look at look aheadline would have been. Obviously,

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:47.920
<v Speaker 2>Iowa hasn't specifically, their offense has not looked at as

0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:51.520
<v Speaker 2>as uh, they haven't even looked mediocre. We were hoping

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 2>for mediocre. We have not gotten mediocre.

0:29:53.560 --> 0:29:55.320
<v Speaker 1>Yet non existent.

0:29:55.640 --> 0:29:58.800
<v Speaker 2>We have gotten non existent. But yeah, I mean again Iowa,

0:29:59.640 --> 0:30:01.640
<v Speaker 2>they don't they don't give a crap. They're going to

0:30:01.720 --> 0:30:04.120
<v Speaker 2>play their Iowa football game. They're going to try to

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:07.560
<v Speaker 2>keep this score low. I tend to think that Michigan

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:09.680
<v Speaker 2>is either going to win this game by twenty plus

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 2>or Iowa's going to spring the outright offset. I don't

0:30:13.960 --> 0:30:17.360
<v Speaker 2>see a scenario where it's like Iowa loses close because

0:30:17.400 --> 0:30:19.600
<v Speaker 2>I feel like if Iowa is able to do what

0:30:19.680 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 2>Iowa wants to do, that's this scenario where Iowa wins close,

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:26.880
<v Speaker 2>and if Iowa can't do what Iowa want If Michigan

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 2>just asserts their will in Iowa, I think they're going

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:30.400
<v Speaker 2>to boat race Iowa.

0:30:31.600 --> 0:30:33.440
<v Speaker 1>Now I've got a question here before we go to

0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:37.400
<v Speaker 1>your lock of your hammer of the week, And I

0:30:37.440 --> 0:30:40.440
<v Speaker 1>feel like this week a lot of favorites in your

0:30:40.480 --> 0:30:45.360
<v Speaker 1>system's opinion are being overvalued. We have much many more

0:30:45.400 --> 0:30:48.880
<v Speaker 1>games here, especially given what we've talked about, where you're

0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 1>saying that the favorite should not be valued by as

0:30:51.720 --> 0:30:53.760
<v Speaker 1>much as they are and they should not be favored

0:30:53.760 --> 0:30:56.160
<v Speaker 1>by that much. Is there a reason for that or

0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:58.280
<v Speaker 1>do you think it's just how this week is falling,

0:30:58.320 --> 0:31:00.000
<v Speaker 1>just simple variants.

0:30:59.800 --> 0:31:03.520
<v Speaker 2>It's I mean, it's all case specific, right, but yeah,

0:31:03.560 --> 0:31:05.520
<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know some of these these ones that

0:31:05.560 --> 0:31:09.000
<v Speaker 2>we've hit on, those teams are coming off of either

0:31:09.000 --> 0:31:12.880
<v Speaker 2>good performances or they've looked good so far or like whatever.

0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:15.880
<v Speaker 2>And so you know, Vegas is anticipating the market going

0:31:16.280 --> 0:31:18.720
<v Speaker 2>a specific way, and I think that's where you see

0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:22.480
<v Speaker 2>the couple points of discrepancy, or it's the other way

0:31:22.560 --> 0:31:26.840
<v Speaker 2>of the opponent is a team that literally nobody wants

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.880
<v Speaker 2>to bet on, and so you you actively have to

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:33.440
<v Speaker 2>incentivize the market by you know, by by putting the

0:31:33.480 --> 0:31:35.520
<v Speaker 2>tax on the other side or whatever to try to

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 2>get some bets on that team, because the book is

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:41.080
<v Speaker 2>not trying to beat you. I think that's something out

0:31:41.080 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 2>there that people don't really understand exactly. The book only

0:31:44.720 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 2>wants fifty percent of the money on both sides. It's

0:31:46.600 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 2>all they want. That is my goal.

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>That's actually not quite true. That's a little bit of

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:54.640
<v Speaker 1>a misnomer. They don't want true fifty to fifty action.

0:31:54.840 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 1>Books aren't afraid to take a position. What they really

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:01.080
<v Speaker 1>want to do is avoid having too much sharp liability

0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 1>on one side. Okay, Yeah, that's just my opinion on it.

0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Like I could be completely wrong.

0:32:09.960 --> 0:32:12.440
<v Speaker 2>Well yeah, I mean I'm just talking you know, Tree

0:32:12.480 --> 0:32:15.040
<v Speaker 2>Top version of it. I mean, if the books had

0:32:15.040 --> 0:32:17.880
<v Speaker 2>their drothers on every single game, it would be like,

0:32:18.160 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's like, you know, this game they would

0:32:20.080 --> 0:32:22.200
<v Speaker 2>want fifty fifty action. That game they would want fifty

0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 2>fifty action. Of course, there's factors that are beyond that,

0:32:25.040 --> 0:32:27.200
<v Speaker 2>but like, if the books had fifty to fifty action

0:32:27.320 --> 0:32:30.320
<v Speaker 2>on every game from tomorrow until the end of time,

0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 2>they would make they would make amends because you're just

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:35.120
<v Speaker 2>getting the big on each one guaranteed money.

0:32:35.400 --> 0:32:38.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you make a great point there. Now your final

0:32:38.760 --> 0:32:42.920
<v Speaker 1>game on this slate and the Arthors Hammer of the

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:46.320
<v Speaker 1>week here, And I'm not gonna lie to you, buddy,

0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:49.080
<v Speaker 1>I love you. It's been a great show we've been

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 1>doing these last several weeks. But you have Ohio State

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>and Rutgers here. The spread is forty one, and you

0:32:56.480 --> 0:32:59.440
<v Speaker 1>say it should be only thirty two. This is Rutgers.

0:32:59.480 --> 0:33:05.240
<v Speaker 1>We're talking about Rutgers. They're going in to the horseshoe here,

0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:08.800
<v Speaker 1>and you think that this line is off by nine points.

0:33:09.000 --> 0:33:11.520
<v Speaker 1>I do of Rutgers the Scarlet.

0:33:11.240 --> 0:33:14.320
<v Speaker 2>Knights, Yeah, I do. I mean, you know it's it's

0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:17.040
<v Speaker 2>you're gonna have to hold your nose to bet on Rutgers.

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:21.760
<v Speaker 2>But I feel like the line is egregiously inflated in

0:33:22.560 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 2>this case. And you know, I mean, you both have

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:27.840
<v Speaker 2>the thing of everyone wants to bet on Ohio State,

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 2>and Ohio States looked awesome in recent weeks. Everything we

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:35.400
<v Speaker 2>expected it more. And then Rutgers, who had looked okay

0:33:35.600 --> 0:33:38.800
<v Speaker 2>in the first three weeks, they grinded out three wins.

0:33:38.880 --> 0:33:42.120
<v Speaker 2>They started out three and all last week they got

0:33:42.160 --> 0:33:45.480
<v Speaker 2>put into the Iowa blender and they ended up losing

0:33:45.480 --> 0:33:48.080
<v Speaker 2>that game. Twenty seven to ten. They didn't get there

0:33:48.200 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 2>the touchdown until the end of the game, so it

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:53.720
<v Speaker 2>was arguably even worse than that for you know, for

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:57.040
<v Speaker 2>them like offensively or whatever. But I feel like in

0:33:57.080 --> 0:33:59.920
<v Speaker 2>this one, with how many points that is, I just

0:34:00.080 --> 0:34:03.360
<v Speaker 2>feel like it's just too many points. I also think

0:34:03.400 --> 0:34:06.880
<v Speaker 2>there's a little bit of like, I'm not sure that

0:34:06.880 --> 0:34:09.239
<v Speaker 2>that I mean both, you know, a couple of different things.

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:11.520
<v Speaker 2>First of all, Ohio State is already you know, they've

0:34:11.560 --> 0:34:17.040
<v Speaker 2>they've mentioned going back in September that defensively, they have

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:20.680
<v Speaker 2>not unveiled their whole defensive scheme, that they have purposely

0:34:20.760 --> 0:34:23.880
<v Speaker 2>kept things a bit vanilla and save save some of

0:34:23.920 --> 0:34:26.640
<v Speaker 2>the some of Jim Knowles's like wrinkles and stuff like

0:34:26.680 --> 0:34:29.560
<v Speaker 2>that for later on in the season. You're not they

0:34:29.680 --> 0:34:32.000
<v Speaker 2>going to unveil them for Rutgers, And they didn't have

0:34:32.040 --> 0:34:34.960
<v Speaker 2>to last week again against Wisconsin because they found out

0:34:35.000 --> 0:34:37.720
<v Speaker 2>right before that game that both the Wisconsin's offensive tackles

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:40.319
<v Speaker 2>were gonna miss it. So, I mean, they that one

0:34:40.360 --> 0:34:43.080
<v Speaker 2>was almost in the bag before it started. And then

0:34:43.160 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 2>you're interested in the relationships. I mean, it's gonna be

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:53.000
<v Speaker 2>the prerogative of day against Schiano but you wouldn't necessarily

0:34:53.000 --> 0:34:55.360
<v Speaker 2>think at the end that you know, it's it's gonna

0:34:55.360 --> 0:34:57.240
<v Speaker 2>be like you know, Day is going to be actively

0:34:57.239 --> 0:34:59.200
<v Speaker 2>going to try to get like a fifty point win.

0:34:59.600 --> 0:35:03.800
<v Speaker 2>This is a lot of points for a team in Rutgers.

0:35:04.040 --> 0:35:07.399
<v Speaker 2>That is not pathetic anymore. You know, you don't put

0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:09.880
<v Speaker 2>them down like where you have Colorado or you have

0:35:10.040 --> 0:35:12.200
<v Speaker 2>like some of those just low end of the barrel

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:16.399
<v Speaker 2>type P five teams. They're better than that now. I mean,

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:19.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, granted they're you know, they're probably gonna be

0:35:19.200 --> 0:35:21.560
<v Speaker 2>a five and seven team or whatever. I just feel

0:35:21.560 --> 0:35:24.440
<v Speaker 2>like that that that's too many points. So I mean,

0:35:24.680 --> 0:35:26.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's one of those hold your nose and jump.

0:35:27.040 --> 0:35:29.440
<v Speaker 2>But I don't think that Ohio State, like I said,

0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:32.640
<v Speaker 2>is going to be putting their entire arsenal towards Rutgers.

0:35:32.800 --> 0:35:34.800
<v Speaker 2>I do think Rutgers can stay within that number.

0:35:36.120 --> 0:35:38.560
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be an interesting game, my friend. I mean,

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:42.440
<v Speaker 1>I never want to, especially going into the horse whore.

0:35:42.440 --> 0:35:44.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to be betting with the Scarlet Knights here.

0:35:44.640 --> 0:35:47.520
<v Speaker 1>But I think you could very well be right. This

0:35:47.600 --> 0:35:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Ohio State team. I don't feel like they've entirely figured

0:35:50.680 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 1>everything out this season, if you know what I'm saying, Like,

0:35:53.520 --> 0:35:55.719
<v Speaker 1>I think that there's still a lot to catch up

0:35:55.760 --> 0:35:58.000
<v Speaker 1>on here with all of the receiving talent that they

0:35:58.040 --> 0:35:59.200
<v Speaker 1>lost last year, right.

0:36:00.680 --> 0:36:02.800
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and you've had you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba

0:36:02.880 --> 0:36:06.279
<v Speaker 2>has been dealing with some of these like nagging injuries

0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:08.879
<v Speaker 2>that you know, even you know that there's questions about

0:36:08.880 --> 0:36:11.400
<v Speaker 2>the status before you know, each of like the past

0:36:11.520 --> 0:36:15.120
<v Speaker 2>like four three games I suppose, but yeah, you have that,

0:36:15.160 --> 0:36:16.719
<v Speaker 2>and then you're trying to work the other guys in.

0:36:16.800 --> 0:36:19.480
<v Speaker 2>Julian Fleming had missed the first couple of games. So yeah,

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:21.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean they've been trying to figure it out, and

0:36:22.080 --> 0:36:25.120
<v Speaker 2>they've been playing like gangbusters with the guys on the field,

0:36:25.160 --> 0:36:27.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, of course, But yeah, I mean, we'll have

0:36:27.640 --> 0:36:30.239
<v Speaker 2>to see. And this also feels like a game of

0:36:30.280 --> 0:36:33.200
<v Speaker 2>where Ohio State has X amount of guys who are

0:36:33.400 --> 0:36:37.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, somewhere between probable and questionable. Right now, this

0:36:37.640 --> 0:36:39.920
<v Speaker 2>very much feels like a game where Ohio State is

0:36:39.920 --> 0:36:43.880
<v Speaker 2>going to withhold the questionable guys and where whereas in

0:36:44.120 --> 0:36:46.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, I mean against against one of the better

0:36:46.040 --> 0:36:49.319
<v Speaker 2>Big Ten opponents, those guys would be playing so but

0:36:49.400 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 2>that's something to keep an eye on this week, like

0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:54.399
<v Speaker 2>you know, the injury reports and stuff. I don't think

0:36:54.400 --> 0:36:56.520
<v Speaker 2>this is a game where you got to you got

0:36:56.520 --> 0:36:59.120
<v Speaker 2>to better early because I mean, people are not going

0:36:59.200 --> 0:37:01.080
<v Speaker 2>to be running out to bet Rutgers. So I feel

0:37:01.120 --> 0:37:03.120
<v Speaker 2>like there's you're gonna get a couple more points if

0:37:03.120 --> 0:37:04.879
<v Speaker 2>you wait till later in the week, and that will

0:37:04.880 --> 0:37:07.360
<v Speaker 2>also give you time to check on the health status

0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:09.360
<v Speaker 2>of some of those different guys who have that questionable

0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:10.520
<v Speaker 2>designation right now.

0:37:11.120 --> 0:37:13.319
<v Speaker 1>Well, guys, that is going to do it for us

0:37:13.440 --> 0:37:16.520
<v Speaker 1>here Thor. It has been an absolute pleasure as always.

0:37:16.600 --> 0:37:20.359
<v Speaker 1>Of course, if you want more Thor analysis, you got

0:37:20.400 --> 0:37:23.440
<v Speaker 1>to check back on Wednesday when he and Scott Bogman

0:37:23.480 --> 0:37:26.160
<v Speaker 1>are going to be reviewing all of their favorite games

0:37:26.280 --> 0:37:29.160
<v Speaker 1>of the week right here on Vetting Pros, right here

0:37:29.200 --> 0:37:31.799
<v Speaker 1>on this podcast feed. If you're watching us on YouTube,

0:37:32.160 --> 0:37:34.839
<v Speaker 1>you know the drill subscribe, hit that notification button, you'll

0:37:34.840 --> 0:37:37.359
<v Speaker 1>get that notification for the video. And if you're listening

0:37:37.400 --> 0:37:39.359
<v Speaker 1>to us on a podcast while you're all set, because

0:37:39.360 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 1>that feed is going to come right to you. And

0:37:41.239 --> 0:37:45.280
<v Speaker 1>then don't forget about Saturday mornings right in early seven

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:48.759
<v Speaker 1>am Pacific time, ten am Eastern. He is here with

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Mike Farrell breaking down their favorite numbers for the Game

0:37:53.040 --> 0:37:56.839
<v Speaker 1>day Slate. Thor as always an absolute pleasure. If people

0:37:56.840 --> 0:37:59.239
<v Speaker 1>want to follow you on the Twitter verse, where can

0:37:59.280 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 1>they find you on the bird app?

0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:02.520
<v Speaker 2>You can find me at thor ku.

0:38:03.360 --> 0:38:06.440
<v Speaker 1>Well, guys, that is gonna be it for us. Here

0:38:06.480 --> 0:38:10.280
<v Speaker 1>again follow him at thor k You again an absolute pleasure,

0:38:10.360 --> 0:38:12.879
<v Speaker 1>my friend. And guys, let's cash some tickets this week.

0:38:12.960 --> 0:38:16.160
<v Speaker 1>Get your bets in now and we'll see you next week.

0:38:16.239 --> 0:38:31.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's cash those tickets. Good luck everybody,