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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the college Football Look

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Speaker 1: aheadline show for betting Pros, where I Thomas Piola walk

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Speaker 1: you through all of our great God of thunder Thorne

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Speaker 1: Eistrom's favorite picks of this week's college football slate. It's

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Speaker 1: a good one here for and we had a great

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Speaker 1: week this week. Both of our teams now four and

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Speaker 1: oh Kansas and Syracuse and let's get right off started here.

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Speaker 1: Syracuse of course playing Wagner this week. My first ever

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Speaker 1: college football game. Actually went and saw Syracuse play them

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Speaker 1: in the Carrier Dome my freshman year. So we don't

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Speaker 1: actually have to talk about that game because it's an

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Speaker 1: FCS opponent. But Kansas is going to be going up

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Speaker 1: against Iowa State. They are two point favorites in this

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Speaker 1: There are three point favorites in this one. You have

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Speaker 1: it at two points. Let's talk about that game for

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Speaker 1: a second year. How are you? First off, how are

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Speaker 1: you doing and how are you feeling about this Kansas game.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing well, Thomas doing well. Yeah, And to be clear,

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Speaker 2: Iowa State favored by three somewhat surprising line, at least

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Speaker 2: in comparison to what you would have thought in the

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Speaker 2: preseason but it is more or less in line with

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Speaker 2: what my number is because now the Jayhawks have jumped

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Speaker 2: way up in the power rankings. Obviously last week they

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Speaker 2: beat Duke, who had been undefeated before that. Kansas had

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Speaker 2: won two impressive road games before that consecutively, West Virginia

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Speaker 2: and Houston. So I mean you have to yank them

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Speaker 2: up in the power rankings, and it just becomes a

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Speaker 2: question of how far Iowa State last week did not

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Speaker 2: acquit themselves super duper well at home against Baylor. A

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Speaker 2: Baylor a team that had had a bunch of injury

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Speaker 2: concerns and then had guys coming back stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: They hadn't played good offense up until play in Iowa State.

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Speaker 2: I think this is an objectively fair line, but it's

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Speaker 2: also a game for people that have a conviction on

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Speaker 2: either Kansas or Iowa State, this would be the game

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Speaker 2: to play at your flag. But just as far as

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Speaker 2: the marketplace, this is a fair number.

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Speaker 1: I completely understand here. But hey, we have to talk

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Speaker 1: about our teams first. I'm very excited for the Natty

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Speaker 1: between us and I'm very excited for college game Day

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Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. I need NC State to

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Speaker 1: beat Clemson in Florida State and for us to just

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Speaker 1: cut through our next two games and get on to

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Speaker 1: NC State versus Syracuse undefeated in the Dome. Very fun

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Speaker 1: potential matchup for college game Day here. But let's talk

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Speaker 1: about a couple of the games that you have a

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Speaker 1: big discrepancy on between you and the book, starting with

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Speaker 1: Louisville versus Boston College. Again, most of these games not

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Speaker 1: gonna be against the headline grabbing teams because this is

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Speaker 1: where the value is. And you've got this spread at eleven,

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Speaker 1: the spread actually existing at sixteen and a half in

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Speaker 1: favor of Boston College. Here.

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Speaker 2: No Louisville, Yeah, yeah, Louisville favored by sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's tough because with Boston College, I've yanked

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Speaker 2: him down and my power rankings about as far as

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Speaker 2: I think I objectively can, and the marketplace is still

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Speaker 2: fading them even harder than that. I tried to grab

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Speaker 2: Boston College last week and failed. That was probably my

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Speaker 2: worst pick of the week, trying to take them against

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Speaker 2: Florida State. It turned out that Jordan Travis play and

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Speaker 2: then that thing went up in smoke. But Boston College

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Speaker 2: has all kinds of problems, mainly on offense. That the

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Speaker 2: huge one is their offensive line, which a couple of

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Speaker 2: years ago and you know then going back several years

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Speaker 2: had actually been really good. It was one of the

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Speaker 2: things the program did consistently well. But that unit is

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Speaker 2: absolutely created and it's one of those things where that's

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Speaker 2: wasting what is good talent. Like at the other positions,

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Speaker 2: like Phil Jerkobek is probably going to be drafted even

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Speaker 2: though he's having this terrible season because of his offensive line,

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Speaker 2: and Zay Flowers, his best receiver, probably going to be

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Speaker 2: drafted too. They did have a season ending injury to report.

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Speaker 2: I believe it was to their defensive end, so they're

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Speaker 2: also having some to their best defensive lineman, so they're

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Speaker 2: also having some injury concerns as well. This is a

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Speaker 2: really tough one because I do not like Louisville. I

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Speaker 2: like I look for opportunities to fade Louisville, but it's

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Speaker 2: also exceedingly hard to trust Boston College. And like I said,

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Speaker 2: I tried last week and it didn't work out for me.

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Speaker 2: That my system still is showing the value on Boston College,

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Speaker 2: even with how far I pulled them down in my

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Speaker 2: power rank case. I'm not sure yet though if I'll

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Speaker 2: end up buying a ticket on that if I can

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Speaker 2: ride another one with Boston College. But that's what the week.

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Speaker 2: As far as handicapping, let me.

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Speaker 1: Tell you, I have a bias against Boston College because

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Speaker 1: they did not even get back to me with my

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Speaker 1: college application. All that's hey, it worked out in the end.

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Speaker 1: I am very happy with my school choice. But you know,

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Speaker 1: what school I was going to choose between with Syracuse

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Speaker 1: would have been a hard decision because of the weather.

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Speaker 1: USC ended up denying me, so i had no choice

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Speaker 1: whatsoever to make, and I'm very happy with how it

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Speaker 1: all shook out. But USC this week is going on

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Speaker 1: up against Arizona State. The sun Devil's getting twenty three

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Speaker 1: and a half points on the road here in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 1: Where are you going in this one? Do you think

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Speaker 1: this line is where it should be.

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Speaker 2: More or less? Yeah? I mean my addressed line on

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Speaker 2: is is twenty. But you also, Arizona State is a

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Speaker 2: big time fade at this point, a big time so

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Speaker 2: they obviously they fired herm Edwards and last week. Generally,

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Speaker 2: in the first week after you fired the coach, that's

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Speaker 2: when you're gonna get the better effort, and statistically after

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Speaker 2: that the team depreciates a bit. Arizona State, despite that,

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Speaker 2: did not cover what was a pretty big number against

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Speaker 2: Utah last week. They got close. I think they lost

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Speaker 2: by twenty one points, and they were like closed as

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Speaker 2: like sixteen and a half point sixteen and a half

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Speaker 2: something like that point underdogs, But they don't look good

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Speaker 2: at all, and obviously they're they're trending down. USC did

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Speaker 2: not look great for large swathet swatch swath is swat

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Speaker 2: swaths swaths. Yeah, okay, we were going to get there

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Speaker 2: of that game against Oregon State on Saturday night, but

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Speaker 2: you've got to give enormous credit to USC for pulling

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Speaker 2: that one out because they had to play that game

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Speaker 2: the way Oregon State wanted it to be played, not

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Speaker 2: the way that USC wanted it to be played. It

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Speaker 2: turned out to be this low scoring, methodical kind of

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Speaker 2: game that USC was able to pull out by a

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Speaker 2: field goal. USC didn't cover that game in Core Vallas,

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Speaker 2: but I actually think that's a super impressive win because

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Speaker 2: Oregon State is what you know, way better this year,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean I tend to

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Speaker 2: think that USC is going to roll over Arizona State,

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Speaker 2: But twenty three points is a lot, although I by

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Speaker 2: the time this thing gets to kick, I would imagine

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Speaker 2: it's going to be twenty four and a half. Now.

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Speaker 1: No, if you think that's the case, should we be

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Speaker 1: betting it now? Or is the line still not what

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Speaker 1: you think it should be and we shouldn't be even investing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you could certainly think about it. For me,

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Speaker 2: that's probably a stay away game just because of how

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Speaker 2: big that number is, and objectively it is inflated, but

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Speaker 2: you can explain the inflation rate. And so then you

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Speaker 2: have to decide, like can I bet? Like am I

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Speaker 2: able to show confidence in putting my money behind that

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Speaker 2: Arizona State team that doesn't seem to have any fight now,

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Speaker 2: that doesn't have any schematic advantages, their talent level is down,

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Speaker 2: you know, et cetera, et cetera. Against this USC team

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Speaker 2: that when they played bad teams, they've been you know,

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Speaker 2: rolling them and then they were able to pull that

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Speaker 2: game out last week. The USC has been playing these

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Speaker 2: teams that played different ways, you know, starting out the season,

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Speaker 2: and they're winning each time. Stanford wanted to slow it

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Speaker 2: down against them, they beat them. Rice did it the

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Speaker 2: week before, and they slap Rice around. Rice is actually

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Speaker 2: a little bit better than we thought they were going

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Speaker 2: to be. The Rice upside Houston yesterday, and then this

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Speaker 2: past game against Oregon State they were able to play

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Speaker 2: the way Oregon State wanted to play and they beat

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Speaker 2: them as well. So, I mean, USC, you know, was

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Speaker 2: still trying to get a feel on exactly what you know.

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Speaker 2: Are they at top five team? Are they a top

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Speaker 2: ten team? Are they a top twenty team? You know

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Speaker 2: with the power ranking stuff like that. But for me

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Speaker 2: on this line, I'm not going to touch you. At

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Speaker 2: least early in the week. I'll see what the market does,

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Speaker 2: I'll do my handicap, and then I'll make a decision

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Speaker 2: later in the week.

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Speaker 1: How about you of a going to the other Arizona

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Speaker 1: team here, they're laying eighteen points against Colorado. What are

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Speaker 1: you thinking in this one? Is this line where it

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Speaker 1: should be or is this a game that you're really

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Speaker 1: interested in betting.

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Speaker 2: It's another one where the market or Vegas and anticipation

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Speaker 2: of what the market is going to do, had to

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Speaker 2: inflate a line, and probably justifiably, Colorado is absolute garbage,

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Speaker 2: absolute garbage. Ucla last week didn't even have a full

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Speaker 2: compliment of players, and they were still fairly easily able

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Speaker 2: to cover twenty one and a half points on the

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Speaker 2: road at Colorado. Arizona is better this year. Like I

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Speaker 2: think some people, if they haven't paid like a ton

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Speaker 2: of attention of the first month of the season, they

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Speaker 2: only they're only going off their memory. They might get

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Speaker 2: some sticker shock looking at this line. Arizona be in

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Speaker 2: favor by eighteen. I do think you can justify it

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Speaker 2: just by how well Arizona's played last week. I was

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Speaker 2: expecting a little bit better from Arizona playing Cal, just

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Speaker 2: because Cal's a limited team. But Arizona had impressed me

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Speaker 2: in the weeks before that. They beat the FCS's best team,

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Speaker 2: North Dakota State. North Akota State, a team who's better

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Speaker 2: than a whole bunch of different FBS teams, and then

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Speaker 2: you know, beating San Diego State in the opening game

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Speaker 2: on the road by three possessions. I believe stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: So it's another one where do you want to hold

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Speaker 2: your nose on a really crappy team on the idea

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Speaker 2: that you're getting a few points of line value or

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Speaker 2: you know, go the other direction. For me, it's probably

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Speaker 2: another one where I'm staying away.

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Speaker 1: I feel that, but maybe this game could tempt your

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Speaker 1: tempt your fancy a little more. It's a wild shoot

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Speaker 1: out between two massive names in college football. James Madison

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Speaker 1: laying twenty against Texas State. Who you got?

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Speaker 2: I Well, both these teams are on different you know,

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Speaker 2: like different points of the polarity are by teams. For me,

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Speaker 2: for sure, I do have to apologize to James Madison.

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Speaker 2: Is clear from over the summer that I was wrong

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Speaker 2: about them. They were a team that I was just

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Speaker 2: a little bit lower on than the marketplace heading into

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Speaker 2: the season because it was an FCS team jumping up

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Speaker 2: and you know, to the FBS their first year in

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Speaker 2: the FBS, and you go back, like the last ten

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Speaker 2: to fifteen years, the teams that have done that historically

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Speaker 2: their first year they take the step back, which you

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Speaker 2: would intuitively think James Madison has not. They have not

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Speaker 2: so far. And beating Appalachian State was a real feather

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Speaker 2: in the cap. James Madison had slapped around Middle Tennessee

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Speaker 2: and the opener, and I was higher on Middle Tennessee

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Speaker 2: coming into the year than the market place and so

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Speaker 2: that that was my first one of like, am I

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Speaker 2: wrong about Middle Tennessee or am I wrong about James Madison?

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Speaker 2: And it turns out that I was wrong about James Madison.

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Speaker 2: So I have definitely toggled James Madison up in my

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Speaker 2: power rankings. But Texas State can also do some different stuff.

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Speaker 2: They're a team that, like when they played the you know,

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Speaker 2: power fed teams or whatever, the system can't overcome the

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Speaker 2: talent discrepancy and they you know, it's basically like the

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Speaker 2: nerd in high school getting his hands tied by in

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Speaker 2: his back and getting shoved in a locker. But like

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Speaker 2: when they play the teams that are around them in talent,

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Speaker 2: that's when the scheme and the way that they practice

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Speaker 2: and the conditioning can start to benefit them because you know,

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Speaker 2: they play up tempo. Spivatal is now I believe in

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Speaker 2: his fourth year there, you know, and they can get

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Speaker 2: the ball in the hands of their playmakers. They brought

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Speaker 2: in a quarterback too, that there was a better fit

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Speaker 2: for spivotal system in Lane Hatcher kid who came from

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Speaker 2: Arkansas State. As far as this number of it's you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's a lot of points to lay on

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Speaker 2: with James Madison. I think I would probably go the

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Speaker 2: other way on this one and lean towards the underdog

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Speaker 2: with Texas State. With how many points you're getting. My

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Speaker 2: justin line on it is James Madison minus fifteen point

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Speaker 2: five and this one's you can explain the inflation on

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Speaker 2: this one just by James Madison coming up that win

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Speaker 2: against appleach and State. But you would sort of anticipate

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Speaker 2: after the biggest win of their young FBS life to

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Speaker 2: this point that the effort the next week you might

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Speaker 2: have a little bit of a letdown spot.

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Speaker 1: I feel that although the Constitution himself, James Madison might

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Speaker 1: be coming for you on that, but I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I think Texas State is going to have a good

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Speaker 1: chance here. That app State upset was really something, but man,

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Speaker 1: app State collapsed in that second half. That was a

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Speaker 1: ridiculous game, man.

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Speaker 2: Well, and also that was a really good spot for

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Speaker 2: James Madison, an underrated one because it was a bad

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Speaker 2: spot for Apple Aachen Sate. Apple Lachen State, a team

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Speaker 2: that had played in the train with UNC and then

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Speaker 2: they had had the upset of A and M and

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Speaker 2: like you know, all the different things Apple Lagen State

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Speaker 2: had had this wild season up up until that already.

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Speaker 2: It was like they'd already played out like two seasons.

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Speaker 2: Like in those those first three games, the other one

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Speaker 2: being Troy, where you had all of college football's eyes

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Speaker 2: on you. You came out flatt in that one because

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Speaker 2: that was another bad situational spot and then you had

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Speaker 2: to furiously come from behind to pull that one out

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Speaker 2: in front of your home, your home fans. Then the

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Speaker 2: next week you turn around and face this team that

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Speaker 2: was ANFCS steam last year. I don't think that Apple

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Speaker 2: Ach and State was happy with their effort in that

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Speaker 2: game coming out of it, and so yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: that the result of it probably flattered James Madison, even

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Speaker 2: though I don't want to take away from James Madison

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Speaker 2: what they did because they have been super impressive so far.

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Speaker 1: Now, this next game up here, Florida International takes on

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Speaker 1: New Mexico State. New Mexico State late in fifteen and

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Speaker 1: a half, and I'm noticing a trend here through some

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Speaker 1: of these games with these home favorites that are very hefty.

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Speaker 1: You're thinking that a lot of these lines are inflated.

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Speaker 1: This is another one.

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Speaker 2: It yeah, sure it I mean, New Mexico State being

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Speaker 2: favored against anyone in the FBS by over two touchdowns

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Speaker 2: is wild, like if you've watched New Mexico State. But

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Speaker 2: this one is a I think it's a direct response

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Speaker 2: to last week, like because they played Hawaii last week

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Speaker 2: at home and they ended up boat racing them. It

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Speaker 2: turns out Hawaii is probably the second worst team in

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Speaker 2: the FBS, because the worst one it's FIU. So, I mean,

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Speaker 2: Vegas had to bring that one up a bit because

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Speaker 2: New Mexico State showed that they could win by margin

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Speaker 2: against a very, very, very bad team, but they were

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Speaker 2: greatly aided by Hawaii in that game. New Mexico State

286
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Speaker 2: couldn't throw that much on Hawaii, and even the rushing stats,

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Speaker 2: it was like the efficiency wasn't there. It was just

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Speaker 2: like they were just running for these long touchdowns because

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Speaker 2: Hawaii can't tackle or fill the gaps. So, I mean,

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Speaker 2: can can you get at least competency out of FIU?

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Speaker 2: We'll see about that ask It's a tough ass. I mean, again,

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Speaker 2: they are the lowest team in the FBS in my

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Speaker 2: power ratings, they're even lower than Hawaii. Still, Hawaii may

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Speaker 2: have taggled down to one thirty at this point, but

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Speaker 2: FIU remains what one thirty one. Fau's got problems on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. But for me, it's tough

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Speaker 2: because this is sort of my same take about last week,

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Speaker 2: which was wrong. You know about the New Mexico State

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Speaker 2: line against Hawaii, But for me, it's it's the same

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Speaker 2: case in this one. It's just more inflated against potentially

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Speaker 2: a little bit worse of a team. But fifteen and

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Speaker 2: a half points having to lay that with New Mexico State,

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Speaker 2: it's a bridge too far for me, knowing how bad

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Speaker 2: that team has.

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Speaker 1: I feel that I mean when it comes to Hawaii.

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Speaker 1: I missed the Cole McDonald Days because I remember d

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Speaker 1: Jen Krik, Cole Brennan, Brennan rest in peace and peace,

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Speaker 1: Rest in peace, indeed. But I missed the Cole McDonald

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Speaker 1: Days because that holds a special place in my heart.

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Speaker 1: We had a very DJN Christmas where a couple of

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Speaker 1: my former co workers and I went down on the strip,

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Speaker 1: toreed a bunch of different casinos, hitting different table games

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Speaker 1: and such, and we capped off Christmas Eve watching Hawaii

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Speaker 1: in the Hawaii Bowl and trying to set up a

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Speaker 1: nice meddle with Cole McDonald there. The man had a farm.

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Speaker 1: You have to trust him. But that Hawaii team is

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Speaker 1: just absolutely pitiful, can't even take advantage of the time

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Speaker 1: difference in massive travel. But this Florida International team, like

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Speaker 1: you said, is awfully terrible. I don't know about laying

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Speaker 1: with New Mexico State either. But let's talk about some

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Speaker 1: of the bigger teams here. Now we do have a

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Speaker 1: couple games. There are a couple teams on rest, but

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Speaker 1: we still have a couple of games to talk about.

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Speaker 1: By far, one of the marquee matchups here is going

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Speaker 1: to be Alabama versus Arkansas. It's gonna be fifteen and

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Speaker 1: a half in favor of Bama. What have you thought

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Speaker 1: about Arkansas so far this season? And do you think

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Speaker 1: that this line is where it should be. Fifteen and

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Speaker 1: a half doesn't feel like a lot of points to

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Speaker 1: land Abama game.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't. But it's funny. My system landed exactly on

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Speaker 2: fifteen and a half, which it doesn't do a lot

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Speaker 2: because you know the veiggest numbers, they got to either

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Speaker 2: be on the whole number on the half, and mine

335
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 2: could be on any of the tents or whatever. And

336
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Speaker 2: it landed smack dab on that. I do think it's

337
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Speaker 2: a fair number. I was hoping for a little bit

338
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Speaker 2: better from Arkansas last week against A and M. I

339
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Speaker 2: didn't I didn't bet it just because you know that

340
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Speaker 2: number two fell right on my thing and the game

341
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Speaker 2: result ended right around where the spread was or whatever.

342
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Speaker 2: But I do trust kJ Jefferson. I like him as

343
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Speaker 2: a quarterback. I like the running backs that they have

344
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Speaker 2: there as well, and it seems like they've they've done

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Speaker 2: an okay job figuring out how to sort of, how

346
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Speaker 2: do I say, is spread the usage that used to

347
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Speaker 2: just be funneled towards Alon Burks sort of around the

348
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Speaker 2: skill guys, you know, and then a little bit more

349
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Speaker 2: to kJ and to keep the offense going. You know,

350
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Speaker 2: that was probably my singular concern about the Hogs over

351
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Speaker 2: the offseason, was you lose this guy that you funneled,

352
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Speaker 2: you know, X percentage of your offense to. You know,

353
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Speaker 2: how are you going to do with that? The the

354
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Speaker 2: thing that concerns me a bit is their secondary and

355
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Speaker 2: they've had health concerns there, et cetera. Texas A and

356
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Speaker 2: M was not a team that was equipped to take

357
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Speaker 2: advantage of that both because of their bad quarterback play,

358
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Speaker 2: and then they really only have the one sort of

359
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Speaker 2: I don't really want to call an Ia Smith a

360
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Speaker 2: receiver because he's both he and Odd Chane are more

361
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,439
Speaker 2: offensive weapons than they are running back or wide receiver,

362
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Speaker 2: but like you know, their A and m's receiving core

363
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Speaker 2: is limited. And then an Ia Smith suffered very unfortunately

364
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Speaker 2: a season ending injury during during that Arkansas game. But

365
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Speaker 2: I mean, Arkansas, do they have enough to keep this

366
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Speaker 2: game within two touchdowns? I think so? But this the

367
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Speaker 2: I mean yeah, theoretically, yeah, but the secondary issues are

368
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: gonna come to the four here potentially if they're not

369
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Speaker 2: patched up. Because Alabama's passing game is I mean, obviously

370
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Speaker 2: as talented as any other passing game this side of

371
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Speaker 2: Ohio State, and now it appears to even have ticked up,

372
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Speaker 2: because there was those couple of games where it had

373
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Speaker 2: played down and Saban was doing weird things with the

374
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Speaker 2: depth chart, like he was playing the true freshman apprentice.

375
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 2: He wasn't playing a couple of the older receivers, and

376
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Speaker 2: it was weird just because it was at the beginning

377
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Speaker 2: of the season and Bryce Young did not appear to

378
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,199
Speaker 2: be on the same page with his receiving corps at

379
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Speaker 2: all times, and he you know, he played down in

380
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Speaker 2: the Texas game, stuff like that. You know, it was

381
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Speaker 2: Vanderbilt last week. But things were looking good for Alabama

382
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 2: and not only that. Ja Cory Brooks for instance, a

383
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: guy who strangely, over the first three games, I don't

384
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 2: know if he was in the doghouse or what was

385
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 2: going going on there, but he was expected to be

386
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,679
Speaker 2: like their number two receiver this year, and he was

387
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 2: on a milk carton over the first three games. Well,

388
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 2: last week they finally play the kid, and he absolutely

389
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 2: torched Vanderbilt. You had like six catch one hundred and

390
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 2: twenty five yards some like that, two touchdowns. So I

391
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,920
Speaker 2: feel like Alabama is getting a better sense of its

392
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 2: receiving cores and how the pieces work together because they

393
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: have several different players in that receiving corps who have

394
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: the disparate skill sets, you know, like you know, sort

395
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 2: of like a basketball team, you know, where you have

396
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 2: your point guard, you have your small forward, you have

397
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 2: your center, et cetera. And I think that that Saban's

398
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 2: getting a better idea that now you're getting Harroll back

399
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 2: to the kid, they had brought in from Louisville. He's

400
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 2: the deep speed merchant. He was supposed to be the

401
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 2: analog for Jamison Williams. So now that receiving corp is

402
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 2: going to go way up. That's the key to this game.

403
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 2: Ken Arkansas defend Alabama's passing attack.

404
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: Oh, I am frightened of a learning Nick Saban and

405
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 1: if he can fully harness the potential of this receiving corps,

406
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: I'm even more scared. I said, I know how Brice

407
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 1: Young will do in the NFL, but in the college game,

408
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 1: Bam is still a tough out. I mean, obviously that's

409
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: the coldest take imaginable. But uh, the only team that

410
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: looks better than them so far has been Georgia. They

411
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: are headed to Missouri to take on Missou. Here as

412
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half point favorites. Do you think

413
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: this line is right?

414
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 2: I do today?

415
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 1: Georgia, that's my bigger question here? Can you ever fade Georgia?

416
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: Well in this one, it's another I'll probably be staying

417
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: away from it, just with where the line is. My

418
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 2: line on it is twenty four and a half. Georgia

419
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 2: by twenty four and a half. But there's no chance

420
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: that I'm gonna I'm gonna take the points with Missouri.

421
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: I've seen some of this Missouri team on uh yesterday

422
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 2: on Saturday. You know, when the audiences listened on Saturday,

423
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 2: Missouri's playing Auburn, and Auburn did everything they could to

424
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: let Missouri win that game, and Missouri just wouldn't take it.

425
00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: And the hilarious thing was it was for way more

426
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: than a football game. There was reports that Auburn was

427
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 2: going to fire Brian Harson immediately after that game if

428
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 2: they lost, and it very much appeared like Missouri was

429
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: going to win it because it very much appeared like

430
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: Auburn did not want to win it. And then despite themselves,

431
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 2: Auburn somehow managed to pull that thing out, despite all

432
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 2: these shenanigans and the fact they couldn't throw the ball

433
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. I'm not impressed with Missouri at all,

434
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 2: and the fact that they kept it close with Auburn

435
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 2: on the road. I think in past years you'd give

436
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 2: them a little bit of a feather in the cap

437
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: for that. Not this year, not with that Auburn team.

438
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 2: That that was the sort of thing where you remember

439
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 2: last week, Thomas, when they Arizona State fired herm and

440
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 2: then they started to come out the stories of like,

441
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,199
Speaker 2: you know, the assistants hated him so much that they

442
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: were given the game plans to the opposing coaches. I

443
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 2: don't know if that was true or not, but like,

444
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: you know, you almost started to think, like, is that

445
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 2: what Auburn is doing with you know, trying to get

446
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 2: hardest and how they they given the game plan away

447
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,239
Speaker 2: and Missouri still couldn't capitalize on it. Definitely do not

448
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: trust Missouri. Certainly do trust Georgia, but that it's a

449
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: big line. You have four touchdowns, that's a big line

450
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 2: to lay on the run.

451
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: That I still can't fait Georgia, especially against missoo. But

452
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: I have bias there. That's a j school rivalry with Syracuse.

453
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: I don't want to question you, but this Georgia team,

454
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 1: this defense looks so good man. I I don't know

455
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 1: who other than of course Syracuse or Kansas is going

456
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 1: to be able to top them.

457
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, only the elite teams. Well, but we'll

458
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 2: have to see in the playoffs when those three.

459
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 1: Exactly, we'll have to see which one draws the short

460
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: straw and has to take them on. But how about

461
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: an Armed Forces game. Here, my friend, Yeah, we've got

462
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 1: sixteen points being laid by Air Force over the Navy here.

463
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: You know, these games are always one of the most

464
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: interesting rivalries in sports because of you know, everything that's

465
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: going into this. Who are you taking in Navy versus

466
00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: Air Force?

467
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 2: I would I think I would lean towards taking Air Force.

468
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: The only small caveat on that. And this is something

469
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: that I'm gonna be looking into over the next couple

470
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 2: of days. Is the first three weeks, Navy looked like

471
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 2: one of the five worst teams in the FBS. They

472
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 2: looked really, really bad. One of their losses was at

473
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: home to Delaware. They weren't competitive in some of the

474
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: other you know, like in the in the other couple ones,

475
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 2: and you know, you were wondering, is this gonna be

476
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 2: another nightmare year for ken Yamatalolo, and and you had

477
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 2: the thing of you know, we talked about this on

478
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 2: previous shows, Thomas how Over the offseason, the NCAA had

479
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: banned cut blocks outside the tackle box, which only hurt

480
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 2: triple option teams pretty much because they were the teams

481
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 2: that ubiquitously did it, like whereas a part of what

482
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: they actually did, and it seemed like that was actively

483
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: destroying the Navy team. But then on Saturday, like I,

484
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 2: you know, I already had stuck a you know, like

485
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: an industrial size fork into the back of this Navy team.

486
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 2: And then I'm just watching the games mine in my

487
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 2: own business, and I look at the scoreboard and they're

488
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 2: given East Carolina game and they end up pulling it out.

489
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 2: I believe in double overtime. Navy ends up winning on

490
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: the road at EASYU. EASYU is a legitimate team. This year.

491
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 2: They're gonna make a ballgame, So I mean that was

492
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: all legitimate went was that one game of easy? You

493
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: just overlooking the opponent? Or has Navy figured out how

494
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: to play under these new rules? Sometimes it does take

495
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 2: some of these triple option teams a little bit, you know,

496
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: like I don't want to use the metaphor with you know,

497
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: with with with Navy, but getting their sea legs under them.

498
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: And sometimes they need that because you know, you have

499
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 2: the guys that graduate typically for them the service academies,

500
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: they're replacing more starters than the typical team because it's

501
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 2: usually like the upperclassmen and then they'll graduate, you know, YadA, YadA.

502
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: So that's the big question on this one is the

503
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: Navy side. The Air Force team is very consistent. I

504
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 2: mean they're just good. So like with them, you feel

505
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 2: pretty good about what you're getting there. Navy's the grab big.

506
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 2: If you get the first three weeks Navy, they're going

507
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 2: to get absolutely annihilated. If you get anything close to

508
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 2: last week Navy, this is going to be a close game.

509
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: And Thomas as you know that like the best bet

510
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: in sports betting going back like twenty years is just

511
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 2: just blindly betting the under in every game between service

512
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: academies because the cloud is always running and the against

513
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 2: the spread record on that is absolutely insane. And there's

514
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 2: a corollary to that rule, which is if one of

515
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: the teams is favored by double digits, you grab the dog.

516
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: So in terms of that, that would lean towards Navy.

517
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: But again, this is a game I'm going to look

518
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: into the next couple of days. I you know, my

519
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: number on that game is nineteen, So my system certainly

520
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 2: leaning Air four. The circumstances and history would suggest Navy.

521
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: The early season stuff again, first three weeks not Navy.

522
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 2: Last week would suggest Navy. So it's just a game

523
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: you got to get into on the handicap.

524
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: Now, how about another big one here between two big

525
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: ten teams. We got Michigan going up against Iowa. If

526
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: you want to lay ten points with the visiting Michigan,

527
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 1: well that's what you got to do, because they are

528
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: ten point favorites. Here are you taking Iowa or is

529
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: this number right where it should be?

530
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: It's funny, this is the second one we talked about

531
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: where my system was right on the number. My number

532
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: on this game was ten flat. This line actually opened

533
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 2: at Michigan minus nine, and then it toggled. The ten

534
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: was sitting right on my number. It's I mean, look,

535
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 2: I'm an Iowa graduate, so take what I'm about to

536
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: say with the grain of salt, but I would lean

537
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: towards Iowa, and the way that I see it is you.

538
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: Iowa once, of course, wants to ugly the game up,

539
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: wants to turn every game into a rock fight, and

540
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 2: Michigan doesn't have the offensive talent or doesn't even have

541
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: the offensive scheme. I think we're they're able on a defense,

542
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 2: It's as good as Iowa's because Iowa has the top

543
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: ten defense to be able to put up a bunch

544
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 2: of points where you feel comfortable laying double is on

545
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: the road of them. I do feel it's a fair line, absolutely,

546
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 2: but circumstantially in game script wise, I would rather have Iowa.

547
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 2: I think if the line is ten or above, and

548
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: if you're interested in Iowa, it's probably a circumstance where

549
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: you want to wait until later in the week because

550
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 2: I can't imagine that the betting market is going to

551
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: be betting on Iowa this week. I can't imagine they're

552
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: going to be like a popular pack. So I mean,

553
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: like later in the week you can probably get you know,

554
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: certainly ten and a half or a little bit higher.

555
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: But this game's funny because over the summer, I got

556
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 2: this buddy in town, and you know, I live in Minneapolis,

557
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: but I got this buddy named Steve and he's he's

558
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: a Michigan alum, and he's an enormous Michigan homer, and

559
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: we were talking, uh one of these summer nights, we

560
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: were having some beers, and he asked me what I

561
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: thought the line for this game was going to be,

562
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: and so I tossed out a number, and he tossed

563
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: out a number, and we began negotiating on what what

564
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: are what would become a bet that we were going

565
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: to make on this game, and unfortunately for me, I

566
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: stopped the negotiation at I accepted Iowa plus six. So

567
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: it with on that one from over the summer, I'm

568
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: getting the short end of the stick. But you know

569
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: around that time that over the summer, that's about where

570
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 2: you know, the look at look aheadline would have been. Obviously,

571
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: Iowa hasn't specifically, their offense has not looked at as

572
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 2: as uh, they haven't even looked mediocre. We were hoping

573
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: for mediocre. We have not gotten mediocre.

574
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: Yet non existent.

575
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: We have gotten non existent. But yeah, I mean again Iowa,

576
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: they don't they don't give a crap. They're going to

577
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: play their Iowa football game. They're going to try to

578
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 2: keep this score low. I tend to think that Michigan

579
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 2: is either going to win this game by twenty plus

580
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: or Iowa's going to spring the outright offset. I don't

581
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: see a scenario where it's like Iowa loses close because

582
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 2: I feel like if Iowa is able to do what

583
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: Iowa wants to do, that's this scenario where Iowa wins close,

584
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: and if Iowa can't do what Iowa want If Michigan

585
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: just asserts their will in Iowa, I think they're going

586
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 2: to boat race Iowa.

587
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: Now I've got a question here before we go to

588
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: your lock of your hammer of the week, And I

589
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: feel like this week a lot of favorites in your

590
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: system's opinion are being overvalued. We have much many more

591
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: games here, especially given what we've talked about, where you're

592
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: saying that the favorite should not be valued by as

593
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: much as they are and they should not be favored

594
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: by that much. Is there a reason for that or

595
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: do you think it's just how this week is falling,

596
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: just simple variants.

597
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's all case specific, right, but yeah,

598
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: I mean, you know some of these these ones that

599
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: we've hit on, those teams are coming off of either

600
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 2: good performances or they've looked good so far or like whatever.

601
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 2: And so you know, Vegas is anticipating the market going

602
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 2: a specific way, and I think that's where you see

603
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: the couple points of discrepancy, or it's the other way

604
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: of the opponent is a team that literally nobody wants

605
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: to bet on, and so you you actively have to

606
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: incentivize the market by you know, by by putting the

607
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: tax on the other side or whatever to try to

608
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 2: get some bets on that team, because the book is

609
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: not trying to beat you. I think that's something out

610
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: there that people don't really understand exactly. The book only

611
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: wants fifty percent of the money on both sides. It's

612
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: all they want. That is my goal.

613
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: That's actually not quite true. That's a little bit of

614
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: a misnomer. They don't want true fifty to fifty action.

615
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 1: Books aren't afraid to take a position. What they really

616
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: want to do is avoid having too much sharp liability

617
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: on one side. Okay, Yeah, that's just my opinion on it.

618
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: Like I could be completely wrong.

619
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: Well yeah, I mean I'm just talking you know, Tree

620
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 2: Top version of it. I mean, if the books had

621
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: their drothers on every single game, it would be like,

622
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: you know, it's like, you know, this game they would

623
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: want fifty fifty action. That game they would want fifty

624
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 2: fifty action. Of course, there's factors that are beyond that,

625
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: but like, if the books had fifty to fifty action

626
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 2: on every game from tomorrow until the end of time,

627
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: they would make they would make amends because you're just

628
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: getting the big on each one guaranteed money.

629
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, you make a great point there. Now your final

630
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: game on this slate and the Arthors Hammer of the

631
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: week here, And I'm not gonna lie to you, buddy,

632
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: I love you. It's been a great show we've been

633
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: doing these last several weeks. But you have Ohio State

634
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: and Rutgers here. The spread is forty one, and you

635
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: say it should be only thirty two. This is Rutgers.

636
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: We're talking about Rutgers. They're going in to the horseshoe here,

637
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: and you think that this line is off by nine points.

638
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: I do of Rutgers the Scarlet.

639
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: Knights, Yeah, I do. I mean, you know it's it's

640
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to hold your nose to bet on Rutgers.

641
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 2: But I feel like the line is egregiously inflated in

642
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 2: this case. And you know, I mean, you both have

643
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: the thing of everyone wants to bet on Ohio State,

644
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: and Ohio States looked awesome in recent weeks. Everything we

645
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 2: expected it more. And then Rutgers, who had looked okay

646
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 2: in the first three weeks, they grinded out three wins.

647
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 2: They started out three and all last week they got

648
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: put into the Iowa blender and they ended up losing

649
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 2: that game. Twenty seven to ten. They didn't get there

650
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: the touchdown until the end of the game, so it

651
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 2: was arguably even worse than that for you know, for

652
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: them like offensively or whatever. But I feel like in

653
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 2: this one, with how many points that is, I just

654
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: feel like it's just too many points. I also think

655
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of like, I'm not sure that

656
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 2: that I mean both, you know, a couple of different things.

657
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 2: First of all, Ohio State is already you know, they've

658
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 2: they've mentioned going back in September that defensively, they have

659
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 2: not unveiled their whole defensive scheme, that they have purposely

660
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: kept things a bit vanilla and save save some of

661
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: the some of Jim Knowles's like wrinkles and stuff like

662
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: that for later on in the season. You're not they

663
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: going to unveil them for Rutgers, And they didn't have

664
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: to last week again against Wisconsin because they found out

665
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 2: right before that game that both the Wisconsin's offensive tackles

666
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 2: were gonna miss it. So, I mean, they that one

667
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: was almost in the bag before it started. And then

668
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: you're interested in the relationships. I mean, it's gonna be

669
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: the prerogative of day against Schiano but you wouldn't necessarily

670
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 2: think at the end that you know, it's it's gonna

671
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 2: be like you know, Day is going to be actively

672
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: going to try to get like a fifty point win.

673
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: This is a lot of points for a team in Rutgers.

674
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 2: That is not pathetic anymore. You know, you don't put

675
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 2: them down like where you have Colorado or you have

676
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 2: like some of those just low end of the barrel

677
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 2: type P five teams. They're better than that now. I mean,

678
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 2: you know, granted they're you know, they're probably gonna be

679
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: a five and seven team or whatever. I just feel

680
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 2: like that that that's too many points. So I mean,

681
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: you know, it's one of those hold your nose and jump.

682
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 2: But I don't think that Ohio State, like I said,

683
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: is going to be putting their entire arsenal towards Rutgers.

684
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 2: I do think Rutgers can stay within that number.

685
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting game, my friend. I mean,

686
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: I never want to, especially going into the horse whore.

687
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: I don't want to be betting with the Scarlet Knights here.

688
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: But I think you could very well be right. This

689
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 1: Ohio State team. I don't feel like they've entirely figured

690
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: everything out this season, if you know what I'm saying, Like,

691
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 1: I think that there's still a lot to catch up

692
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: on here with all of the receiving talent that they

693
00:35:58,040 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: lost last year, right.

694
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you've had you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba

695
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 2: has been dealing with some of these like nagging injuries

696
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 2: that you know, even you know that there's questions about

697
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 2: the status before you know, each of like the past

698
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: like four three games I suppose, but yeah, you have that,

699
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 2: and then you're trying to work the other guys in.

700
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: Julian Fleming had missed the first couple of games. So yeah,

701
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: I mean they've been trying to figure it out, and

702
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: they've been playing like gangbusters with the guys on the field,

703
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 2: you know, of course, But yeah, I mean, we'll have

704
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: to see. And this also feels like a game of

705
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 2: where Ohio State has X amount of guys who are

706
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: you know, somewhere between probable and questionable. Right now, this

707
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 2: very much feels like a game where Ohio State is

708
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 2: going to withhold the questionable guys and where whereas in

709
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: you know, I mean against against one of the better

710
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 2: Big Ten opponents, those guys would be playing so but

711
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: that's something to keep an eye on this week, like

712
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 2: you know, the injury reports and stuff. I don't think

713
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 2: this is a game where you got to you got

714
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: to better early because I mean, people are not going

715
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: to be running out to bet Rutgers. So I feel

716
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: like there's you're gonna get a couple more points if

717
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,879
Speaker 2: you wait till later in the week, and that will

718
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 2: also give you time to check on the health status

719
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 2: of some of those different guys who have that questionable

720
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: designation right now.

721
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is going to do it for us

722
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: here Thor. It has been an absolute pleasure as always.

723
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 1: Of course, if you want more Thor analysis, you got

724
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: to check back on Wednesday when he and Scott Bogman

725
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: are going to be reviewing all of their favorite games

726
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: of the week right here on Vetting Pros, right here

727
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: on this podcast feed. If you're watching us on YouTube,

728
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 1: you know the drill subscribe, hit that notification button, you'll

729
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 1: get that notification for the video. And if you're listening

730
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: to us on a podcast while you're all set, because

731
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: that feed is going to come right to you. And

732
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:45,280
Speaker 1: then don't forget about Saturday mornings right in early seven

733
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: am Pacific time, ten am Eastern. He is here with

734
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: Mike Farrell breaking down their favorite numbers for the Game

735
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 1: day Slate. Thor as always an absolute pleasure. If people

736
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 1: want to follow you on the Twitter verse, where can

737
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: they find you on the bird app?

738
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 2: You can find me at thor ku.

739
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is gonna be it for us. Here

740
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,280
Speaker 1: again follow him at thor k You again an absolute pleasure,

741
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 1: my friend. And guys, let's cash some tickets this week.

742
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: Get your bets in now and we'll see you next week.

743
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: Let's cash those tickets. Good luck everybody,