1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,720 Speaker 1: When you look at markets, and a lot of participants 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: here say, look, they're confident about twenty twenty four. A 3 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: lot of risks out there. There's climate change, loving, there's conflicts, 4 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: we're not sure about elections. Do you think the markets 5 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: are too optimistic? 6 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: Well, let's see. 7 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 3: So first, starting with the US, I think that the 8 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 3: probability of soft landing in the US are increasing as 9 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 3: time goes by. 10 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: We do believe that inflation. 11 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 3: Will get towards below two and a half present core 12 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: PC by the end of the year, and that gives 13 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 3: an impetus for the economy to do relatively fine. You 14 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 3: look at the consumer is in a very good place, 15 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 3: the corporate sector is in a very good place. So 16 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 3: there are no big imbalance that you can see. Having 17 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 3: said that, the market was pricing until yesterday six cuts, 18 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 3: which is a very unlikely scenario because if you put 19 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 3: yourself in the shoes of the FED, if that is 20 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 3: the scenario and unemployment raise is so tight and the 21 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 3: economy is doing fine while you're going to rush it, 22 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 3: so I think that. 23 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 2: Is very likely that effect will cut if. 24 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 3: Everything continues to go this way, but probably later in 25 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 3: the year and less than the market is suspected. 26 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: So because this is because all the good news I 27 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: guess has already been priced in. We have quite a 28 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: bit of a rally towards. 29 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: The end of laws year. 30 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that even though environment is not bad, 31 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 3: so when you think about equity markets, there is b 32 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: pricing a very high multiple. When you're going to have 33 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 3: on very optimistic earnings for next year arm its growth, 34 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: you're going to high gert intergrate. So it's very unlikely 35 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 3: that you're going to have a lot of upside for 36 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 3: here in the scenario that even in the vast scenario 37 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 3: of the soft planning, espress are very tight, so and 38 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 3: then you have all the peripheral risks that they are 39 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 3: quite substantial. 40 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 2: So the geopolitical situation is. 41 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 3: Stable to the terror raiding, terrible things happening in Russia, Ukraine, 42 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 3: the middle is the tension between China and US electoral cycle. 43 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 3: So there are issues that for sure they haven't been 44 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 3: priced in the market. So I think that is a 45 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 3: time to be careful on this sort of optimism, even 46 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 3: in the scenario where the soup landing takes place and 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 3: and recession at some point will happen, but probably if 48 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 3: that is a central scenario is a twenty six twenty 49 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 3: seven percent event. 50 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: Would you actually expect a correction in equadi markets across 51 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: world and especially in the US, or is it just 52 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,399 Speaker 1: said it won't do much this year? 53 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 3: I think that depends on the scenario. If we are 54 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 3: wrong and inflation is not coming down towards the levels 55 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: and the fact have to stay higher for longer or 56 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 3: do more. In that scenario, for sure you will have 57 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 3: a recession, probably this year. I think that these a 58 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 3: relatively low probability. I think that the scenario where the 59 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 3: soup landing is anchored, so therefore what you're going to 60 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 3: see is a market that doesn't go anywhere that. 61 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: And in any event, because it's a bit high in price, 62 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 2: it will create some relatility. 63 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 1: But why is it so difficult to the market, for example, 64 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: to understand geo politics. I think Jamie Diamond called this 65 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: the most dangerous time. We see it a little bit 66 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: playing out on oil prices. But actually, again we don't 67 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: have the kind of maybe fear that we would have 68 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 1: had four or five years ago on market. 69 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 3: Behavior because geopologies, you look at history, geopologies never affect 70 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 3: the economy to match is a big issue except it 71 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 3: massively escalates. So therefore, in that scenario, we haven't seen 72 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 3: a big impact of geopology into global growth, into oil pricing. 73 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 3: So essentially it's been in the background. It is really 74 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 3: vad what is going on, but it hasn't really affected 75 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 3: much the functioning of economy. 76 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: How much would the US elections actually change again your 77 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: forecast for the US if we have President Donald Trump 78 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: in the White House, What kind of policies could actually 79 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: change the trajectory for the US economy and therefore, frankly 80 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: the world. 81 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 3: I don't know too early to say. As a company, 82 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: we invested for we investor the loan for the long term. 83 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 3: We operate at a regional level in the US with 84 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 3: every community, every state, and we've been going through this government, 85 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 3: the previous and the previous one and all of those 86 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 3: so and we will continue that. We're business in the 87 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 3: US is a great business. We employ around two hundred 88 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 3: thousand people, and we want to continue to do that 89 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 3: regardless of who is in the White House. 90 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: So you're quite confident about the US economy with the software, 91 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: and that's the base case. What happens with China, Europe 92 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: and the rest of the world. 93 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 3: I think that China has many many challenges. Real estate 94 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 3: is one. They have issues with the population. 95 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 2: Agent and things like that. 96 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 3: So though the stimulus to the economy is going to 97 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 3: stabilize growth probably for the first half of the year, 98 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 3: in the median term, we see the Chinese economy is 99 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 3: slowing down in growth and Europe is struggling. I think 100 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 3: that high energy prices, they slow down in China, people 101 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 3: that they are concerned saving race are going down in 102 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 3: the United States because people believe in the economy and 103 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: they feel confident to spend. In Europe is having exactly 104 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 3: the opposite because of the war and the economy not 105 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 3: growing and all the challenges that. 106 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 2: They are facing. 107 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 3: So there are issues, so that us are important issues 108 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: and at the moment they are not improving. 109 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: But if you look at European equities are cheap, so 110 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: is it actually a good time again? If you bring 111 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: it back to the markets. 112 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: But I think that twenty four bring I think that 113 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 3: they are priced price in the economic reality. To go 114 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 3: from there to cheap, I think that it may be 115 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 3: a bit too early difference. 116 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: Is there anything else in emerging markets? When you look 117 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: at there's a lot of data. I don't know what 118 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: that means for fixed income. Is there anything that you 119 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: either see in a bubble or just being mispriced now? 120 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 3: I think the emergent market is one of the good 121 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 3: things that they have done is they started focusing inflation 122 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 3: way before they develop markets. 123 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,239 Speaker 2: They started normalizing. So therefore, when. 124 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 3: The global the developed markets normalized rates, the emerging markets 125 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 3: were not affected much. I think that they are in 126 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 3: a in a very good position. I think that son 127 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 3: of the country. But the concept of emerging market is 128 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 3: as a totality, I think there is a flow concept concept. 129 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 3: You can see Mexico doing very well because of a 130 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 3: lot of the business is going there and there is 131 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 3: a huge amount of investment, hopefully in my country. With 132 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 3: the new government, is creates the beginning of a new area. 133 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: The President of Argentina's here, yeah. That he also made 134 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:36,919 Speaker 1: with the IMF head tomorrow. 135 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that they are doing all the 136 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 3: right things. It would be a tough year for Argentina 137 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,679 Speaker 3: for the population of the country, but the society tolerate 138 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 3: is the adjustment of the pain of the adjustment. I 139 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 3: think that this may be a great thing for the beginning, 140 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 3: the beginning of a change of these eighty years of 141 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 3: the eneration. 142 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: Of the country. 143 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: Talk to me about JP Morgan high for the share price, 144 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: what will drive growth in the future. 145 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 3: Oh, we are the stock price have been done well 146 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 3: because the company is doing very well. But there are 147 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 3: so many things. So if you look I think that 148 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 3: we always look Jaiming myself, all the team. We look 149 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 3: at not just that you're number one here and number 150 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 3: one there. We look at the components of that and 151 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 3: when you think about the opportunities that we have for 152 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:30,119 Speaker 3: growth wealth management in the United States. We are now 153 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 3: in every state in the United States for the states 154 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 3: except Hawaii and Alaska, and in some of those days 155 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 3: we are relatively new, We're a very small market share. 156 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: We can see growth there. 157 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 3: International retail is another opportunity payments, so there is plenty. 158 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: Of growth coming here. 159 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 3: So I think that the company and the company has 160 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 3: the returns, I have the firepower to continue best in 161 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 3: through the cycles, and that is what it really allows 162 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,559 Speaker 3: us to continue regardless of economic environment, to continue growing. 163 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: And we see some of your competitors city actually retrenching 164 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: from some of the markets. There's also job losses, so 165 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: can JP Morgan absorb some of the things that other 166 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: banks actually say they can't handle. 167 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 3: I think that we are focused in whatever it is 168 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 3: our core investment area, one of the ones that I 169 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 3: mentioned we have at the moment, we are employing at 170 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 3: the end of the year around three hundred and twenty 171 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 3: thousand people, So the number of people that employ has 172 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 3: been growing and not shrinking. So I think that where 173 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 3: we see opportunities and we can have our clients, for sure, 174 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: we will. 175 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 2: Focus on that. 176 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 1: So hiring this year, yes, where I mean good bonuses 177 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: is probably what we're expecting from JP Morgan. Hiring is 178 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: this year going to be great for your bank? 179 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: I hope soul. You never know, but I think that 180 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 2: all the components are for. 181 00:08:54,679 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 3: An extron year. So I think that the overdue is 182 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 3: in retail. In the investment bank, we see an increasing 183 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 3: wallet in investment banking that has been very subdue for 184 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 3: the last couple of years. So depending on volatility, markets 185 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 3: will do well. We see more growths in payment so 186 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 3: and with it. Yeah, when I look at our plans 187 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 3: within increase. We will increase our staff this year for sure. 188 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: On regulation, So what concerns you and you know you've 189 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: always thought about liquidity, You've always thought about market functioning 190 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: and kind of what's you know, the pipeline, the pipes 191 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: that make everything move. There's also new capital rules that 192 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: puts on your mind. 193 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 2: Well, basil. 194 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: The implementation of Vassal three and GAIN in the US 195 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 3: has been a bit of a challenge. The industry is 196 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 3: going to submit the response to the regulation. 197 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 2: But I think that one of the objective. 198 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 3: Of this regulation is good, which is harmonization, and I 199 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 3: think as plan in the US, maybe many things, but 200 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 3: they are not harmonized in anything, So I think that 201 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 3: that will be of the challenge. And you have things 202 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: that that they are going to there create that they're 203 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 3: going to have outcomes that probably they are not wanted, 204 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 3: like more and more pushed from the regulated sector into 205 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 3: the unregulated space. I think that a lot of the 206 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 3: capula is going towards markets where the market is already 207 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 3: having problem with liquidity, and this will make it even 208 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 3: even worse that at the end, it will affect one 209 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 3: of the big advantages that US have that you have 210 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 3: an amazing capital market. So overall, I think that hopefully 211 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 3: there is analysis on the economic impact and the impact 212 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 3: to markets of this regulations and it gets graduated to 213 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: a point where it makes. 214 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: Sense to have it. 215 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: Do you worry that this could lead to some kind 216 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: of financial stability event further down the line. 217 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 2: That I don't know. I think that it will. 218 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 3: Create for sure, it will create create an increase in 219 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 3: the cost of crediting to the economy, marketing liquidity, and 220 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 3: when markets are illegual, you know what happened. I think 221 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 3: that that should be at the top of the mind 222 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 3: of the Faith and other regulators to understand what are 223 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:09,239 Speaker 3: the implications of what they are doing and adjust alongside 224 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 3: with it.