WEBVTT - A Strategist's Top ETFs for 2025 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:06.640 Welcome to Chillions. 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:11.360 I'm Joel Webber and I am Eric belchernas Eric almost 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:12.360 twenty twenty five here. 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.080 Yeah, I know it. I get to write my outlook. 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:16.480 We've got reviews coming up. 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.800 Oh those were due already. All of that was due already. 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:21.799 The good news here. 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.840 No, no, dude, not the numbers, not the written part. Yeah, 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:26.280 the number that's the important stuff. 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:29.880 Though, the good thing is we're gonna have some help 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:34.040 today about how to think about what's gonna be coming 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:34.880 at us next year. 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:38.479 Yeah. So even though I have an outlook, our outlooks, 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.479 we can't really talk about like tickers that much. We 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.960 can't give investment advice. But there are people who look 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.560 at ETFs by ETFs. We're calling them ETF strategists. 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:48.599 Yeah, what do they do? 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.879 They are again, we had a side show called ETF 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:55.160 master Chefs. To me, they are chefs that make portfolios 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.520 of using ETF ingredients. So they are, in my opinion, 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.600 the best shoppers of ETFs out there. So when they 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:07.280 have a list, it's usually not the most obvious ETFs 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:10.240 in Maybe another metaphor that I like to use for 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:12.120 these and what we're going to talk about today is 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.679 remember the video stores in the nineties and eighties, when 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:18.040 you'd go and there'd be like a wall saying employee picks. 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.520 Yeah, and they'd have those little like coin things that 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:22.480 you would like take off the hook, yes, tick to 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:23.280 the counter. 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:27.319 And a lot of the movies were not obvious, right, 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:29.840 That's where you'd find like some like you know, foreign 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:32.880 movie or something from the seventies that was gritty. And 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.920 I learned to really trust the employee picks. And they're 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:38.200 the people who were at the counter and would love 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.320 to have a conversation about movies. This is old school 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.640 video stores. That is what ETF strategists are to me 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:46.520 for ETFs. They are nerds at the highest level. And 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.360 when they have ETFs, not only it's interesting to pick out, 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.920 like what ETF did you pick? But why'd you pick it? 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:55.280 Because they have a they have to put a portfolio together, 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:57.120 they have to like work the macro theme into so 0:01:57.120 --> 0:01:58.640 it's kind of a two for interview when you talk 0:01:58.680 --> 0:01:59.240 to them. 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.720 So joining us on this episode, John Dobby of Astoria 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:09.200 Portfolio Advisors, this time on Trillions as story is ten 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:11.399 ETFs for twenty twenty five. 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:13.639 John, Welcome back to Trillions. 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:14.480 Great to be here. 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:19.480 You've been on trillions before, you've been on the Master 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:25.040 Chef episodes that Eric referred to. I was kind of 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:29.440 taken aback by how good of performance twenty twenty four 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:33.720 was when you did your your ten picks. So you 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:36.400 just copy and paste right twenty twenty four into twenty 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.480 twenty five and repeat a. 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:42.240 Little different, little different. Yeah, we were last year. We're 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.480 pretty bold up. You know, we thought the FED was 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.720 going to cut We had an Ernin's recovery here in 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:50.119 the US, and you know, the average stock valuations were 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.280 is not that expensive, so we thought it was kind 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:53.720 of made a lot of sense to own a lot 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:54.880 of equity picks last. 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:57.040 Year, and how good were your picks last year? 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.200 So last year's and I would just question people to say, like, 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.919 you know, we've got GIBS compliant sma's fact sheets on 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.320 our websites. We have ETFs that you could look at 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.160 the more star rankings, but inevitably people always ask me, 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:11.160 you know, how did last year's you know, let's do so. 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:12.400 Yeah, I was just going to get out of the 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:13.280 way by donut first. 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.520 Equate to basket was up twenty one percent last year. 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.600 You know, we have global macro ideas as international does 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:23.720 fixed income, there's alternative. So you know, the the equo 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:27.120 ait SMP was up twenty six percent. You know since 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:30.200 our publication, our equated basket was up twenty one percent, 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:32.679 So you know, I was pretty happy with it. You know, 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:34.320 one hundred percent of the ideas were in the money. 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.080 Let's say usually about seventy eighty percent of the ideas 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.120 are like positive returns. So I think it was, you know, 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:44.080 in retrospect, this year I think was a fairly easy call, 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:45.320 but very different from next year. 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.960 So so nothing from last year's list can be on 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:48.800 this year's list. 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.040 I you know, Eric, you know this. But if I 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:54.600 put spy img you know GLD in the list every year, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:56.120 like no one's going to read it, right, So the 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:58.360 idea is to give kind of unique, you know, actionable 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:01.640 investment ideas. So I do like to kind of change 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:04.000 it up. There could be a theme like small caps, 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:07.120 which is repeated, but we would want to change the ticker. 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:09.480 Let's say, let's talk about that top of the list 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.920 is small caps. Somebody I kimera where I read it, 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.479 Maybe it was you said that small caps are potentially 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.640 the opportunity of a lifetime right now. Unlike international, they've 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.480 got you know, potential. You have two small cap ETFs 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:25.360 on here. I'll read them off, Joel. You told me 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.719 if you've heard of it, either of these Wisdom Tree 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:31.479 US Small Cap Quality Divoting Growth Fund and the alps 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:34.599 oh Shares US Small Cap Quality divin ETF. 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:38.640 Those tickers are dg RS and o U S m 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:39.560 over two. 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:44.320 Yeah, so let's first talk small caps. I feel like 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:48.640 small caps. We've seen this movie before. It's always supposed 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:50.080 to be the year of small caps. They have a 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:53.599 nice little month or two and then bam, large cap 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:57.080 Q typestocks take over. And I've seen it happen over 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.600 and over and over, you know, like that Marshall Lynch video. 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:02.720 You just got to run through a guy's face over 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:04.520 and over and that was his key to like being 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.120 a good running back. The cues to me is Marshaun Lynch, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:11.119 and the defender is the small caps. They just can't 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.479 ever get going, let alone a regime change. You think 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:15.159 this is the year. 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:17.680 I think so. I mean I think as a prudent 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.120 investor that is trying to buy low and sell high. 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:23.120 You know, cues are pretty expensive right now. They did 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:25.680 that big rebounds last year where they modified the weights 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.919 and you know they lowered some of the MACS seven exposure. 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.600 So it's not as egregious, let's say, as like let's 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.160 say in the S and P five hundred. But I mean, 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.240 you know, we had an epic rally right last two 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.040 years in the SMP. It's almost six percent between last 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:39.800 year and this year. So it's just harfed me with 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:42.560 a straight face to talk to an advisor and say, look, 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:45.400 we're going to just be overweight US large cap, but 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.480 I just think you've got to play that margin of 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:50.159 safety and small caps. You know, they're cheaper in the 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.320 products that we use. You know, there's some underlying alpha signals, 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.160 but you know, no doubt the call is that, like 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.640 you know, we're going to have like a positive economic 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.760 drop backdrop. You know you've got like the red sweep. 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:04.880 You know, there is like a trump put is what 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.200 we're saying. So like, do you still want to be 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.480 overweight you know ques and spies or do you want 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:11.039 to like take a little bit off and put it 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:13.280 into like small caps And we would say use some 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:14.240 small caps. 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.040 And why these two Well. 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:18.080 I mean, so you know, last year, let's say, we 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.240 would have used the S and P six hundred, you know, 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:24.240 the SPSM, which is just like the benchmark. But you know, 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:27.279 in small caps, you know, there is some underlying alpha 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:30.640 signals that you can gather. And I think these two products, 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.440 you know, not only have they performed better then let's say, 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:37.240 like the small cap index, but it's really kind of 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.440 what we would do, Like we run SMAs and like 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:42.760 so the ousm uh, you know has one hundred stocks, 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:44.520 let's say, right, which is kind of what we would do. 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:46.719 And we've got a couple of vtfs which we have 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:49.839 like very concentrated portfolios. So I think that you know, 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.960 if you look at let's say the medium multiple for 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:56.160 small caps, they trade the thirty fifth percentile. Large caps 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.800 are in the top percent ale. And here here's one 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:00.760 stat and I want to get two monkey with stats. 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:02.880 But like, you know, the main point that we've been 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:06.520 arguing is that there are other growth opportunities besides the 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.840 MAG seven. Right, So if you just look at the 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:11.520 S and P five hundred and four hundred, there's two 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:15.160 hundred and forty stocks that have had Earnin's growth of 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:17.840 more than twenty five percent over the last twelve months. 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:20.640 That's a lot of stocks. There's forty one that have 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.760 grown their earnings fasted in the video, fifty nine that 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.600 have grown their earnings fasted in Amazon, ninety two grown 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.440 faster in Meta, and one hundred and seventy fast in Google. 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:33.320 So you know you can stay long queues or you 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:35.880 know the MAG seventy TF. But you know, I look 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.720 at like sentiment it is so stretched, right. You know 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:42.520 that MAG seventy TIF from Roundhills gained like a billion 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.560 dollars like in the last year. I'm a tremendous job, 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.480 but I'm like, there's so many late cycle indicators I 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:50.400 see out there, and you know, at the end of 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:52.800 the day, we're supposed to be buying low and selling high, right, 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.040 that's what advisors want us to do. So that's the 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:56.440 kind of restaurant for small ceps. 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.280 What you're talking about, This idea that okay, the MAG 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.960 seven it can go any further the evaluations, I feel 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:05.880 like it points to this like possible existential crisis. Like 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:09.600 someone like yourself who's very educated, you've had mentors, you've 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:13.320 seen markets before. It just seems like this market sometimes 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:17.640 goes against everything that people have been taught and because 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:21.320 I agree with you, it all makes sense. Like it's 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.200 their due, right, That's how they're due to like have 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:27.920 a bad year, but they were due like one hundred 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:32.400 percent ago. Like that's the problem. They're always due and 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.600 they just keep like I said, Marshawn lynching everybody. 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.000 Yeah, well I the analogy I would say is that, 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.720 like we have these conversations with advises, like, Okay, let's 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:43.439 let's first of all, we're not saying to sell all 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.280 your spies and your cures. We're saying, like, take a 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.520 portion of it, take a third of it. Right, So 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.680 here's the options that we go through advisors. Okay, you know, 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:52.760 do you want to buy value? And they're like, all right, 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.839 that's it. Value works like one or twice every ten years. Right, 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:59.960 So like we're not gonna like play that game international, right. 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:02.079 You know you have your Europe versus US tweet that's 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:04.760 been going viral. I mean that's just like nobody wants 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.600 to buy international, right, So sell your spies and ques 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:10.920 to buy something that rarely ever works. So that's out 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.920 of the option. Then we get into this conversation equal weight, 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.440 which they're more receptive to. Right, So rsp is taken 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.280 in like thirteen billion year you know, INFLOS year to date, 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:21.560 and it's up to like sixty five billions. So it 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.800 is like a big reputable product. We think there's flaws 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:28.360 with like you know, equal weight indices. Small caps is 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:31.240 something that like, you know, I think is more realistic 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.080 that people would till to so they're like, all right, 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:34.360 we'll give that a shot. Like we're not going to 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.040 buy value, We're not going to buy international, you know. 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:39.600 So we're just trying to like tell people like, look, 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:41.079 let's look for a margin to say to be you're 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:43.520 right or to the point that it's like a low train, 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:47.240 local automotive that just keep powering through. But you know, 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.160 the the economic history would say, like if you've got 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:55.280 a supportive backdrop for risk and you've got this you know, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:59.439 trump put and a pro red sweep, you know that 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:02.120 would better for small caps. 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:04.520 Okay, John, I'm gonna keep going down the list, but 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:08.480 I gotta ask you there were two ETFs for small 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:10.920 cap there, and there's ten overall. 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:11.880 Can you count? 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:16.080 You know, you know, here's the backdrop with that is 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.480 that I so the history of this report was that 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:21.960 I was on the cell side as like a content 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:25.520 you know, ETF content producer, and I did want to 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:26.200 go to the buy side. 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:26.640 I wanted to join. 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:28.440 So I'd go on these interviews and be like, you know, 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:30.720 I want to you know, manage money, and they would 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:32.600 be like, well, you've got no track record, you can't 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.440 get a job here. So that had to put together 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.400 a report to kind of get a track record. And 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.359 then I started doing that and I had good performance, 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.880 and they're like, well, you actually don't like track you know, 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:46.400 any kind of real money. Long story short, you know, 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.400 the list used to have just ten, but over the 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.440 last few years, as we are like so far deep 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:53.640 in this economic recovery, S and P has been on 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.600 this bull market for you know, thirteen years, we added 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.240 some other tickers you know, for that theme, but it's 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:01.839 usually like ten themes. 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.360 Yeah, fourteen, yeah, alright, alright, just checking, Okay, so what's 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:05.920 your next theme? 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.080 Well, I mean, to Eric's point, you know, I do 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.480 think that the mag seven is you know, a theme 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.920 that you should tilt away from. And we firmly believe 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:19.079 that we run SMAs, you know, quantitative stock SMAs. We've 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:20.600 been doing it for you know, the last seven years 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.760 at Astoria We've always equally weighted. You know, back in 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:26.360 Maryland's research in the late nineties early two thousands, when 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.599 we put together like these quant baskets, we used to 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.840 always equal weight. So, you know, about a year ago, 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:34.840 so we launched ROE, which is an equally weighted quality 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.400 TF and because we were worried about the mag seven. 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:40.440 So that fun launched in August first of twenty twenty three, 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:42.640 and it takes you know, four or five months to 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.400 launch it. So we were thinking about equal weight, like 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:48.240 very very far a long time ago. So the problem 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.080 that we find when when you use the equal weight 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.520 Russell one index or the S and P five hundred 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.720 equate index, you get this like concentration in like small value, 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.400 and your tech exposure goes from let's say thirty percent 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.240 spot I to like fifteen percent. And you know, one 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.240 thing I'll agree with Eric is that like I just 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:06.920 I don't want ever want to be on the way tech. 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.360 I think tech is just like a power train locomotive. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.200 You want to stay along it. So if you sell 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:15.520 your spy to buy you know RSP or you know 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.960 there's Russell one thousand equate ETFs, you know you're going 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.960 from like large growth, large blend to small value and 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:23.920 not just you know, not something that we wanted to do. 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:25.840 So for are we What we wanted to do is 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.200 basically take the SMP sector weights and kind of match it. 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.520 So we've had good performance. You know, we've beaten the 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.560 SMP equate in Next by like six hundred and fifty 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.800 basis points since we launched. And it's one hundred eight 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.640 one hundred stocks equally weighted, so each stock is one 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.400 percent weight whereas in the S and P five hundred 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:46.800 equated NEXT each stock is twenty BIPs. So you know 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.520 you're really not going to get like that marginal contribution 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:51.920 to return if like let's say in the video, goes 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.880 up two hundred percent a year, So that that's something 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.720 that's kind of near and dear at our heart. 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:05.760 Let me talk about this one here. This is one 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:10.360 of my most underrated ETFs, which is the first trust 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:13.440 Us Equity Opportunity TF. It used to be called the 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.720 I P O E t F. It is an IPO 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:20.400 et F. It's IPOs and SPINOFS. Why that that is 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:21.760 an interesting pick? I like it? 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.640 Okay, So one thing we wrote about in our report 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.640 is that you know, we have to go into far 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.760 corners of the market to try and find you know, 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.280 attractive you know returns. Let's say, just because we think, 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:34.920 you know, the sp and the queues are kind of 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:38.840 expensive and crowded, you know, so something like FPX is 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.520 kind of eediosyncratic, like you know, yes, like the regulatory 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:46.400 backdrop is improvement, but whether the FED cuts you know 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:48.880 or raises, I don't know if it's going to necessarily 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.880 drive the IPO spinoff you know kind of market. So, uh, 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:54.640 you know, I've been following this thing for a while. 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:58.360 I think the underlying provider Josef I can't remember, I 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.160 can't pronounce his last name, but you know, he's been 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:03.720 in this space. He's like the one guy that does 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:05.920 this index, and like he's been doing it for like 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:07.840 as long as I've been working actually, which is like 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.679 over twenty years. So last year it's actually had good returns. 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:13.760 You know, it's up like forty seven percent of the 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.120 last one year, spies up thirty four percent. It's got 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.640 almost a billion dollars as one hundred stocks. You know, 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.760 they capped, you know, the stocks, you know, ten percent 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.640 on the upside. So but it is like, you know, 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.440 the largest one hundred most liquid companies that are either 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:32.680 gone public, whether they're an IPO or spin off. And 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.320 then there's also some acquiers of recent IPOs that included 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:35.640 in it. 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.320 So does it really only work though, if there's a 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:38.040 lot of IPOs. 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.240 Good point. I mean, I wouldn't say the you know, 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.240 the IPO calend that was as robust last year as 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:46.920 what we think will be in the next you know, 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.560 you like, the one thing about like, you know, Trump's 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.200 presidency I would say is that, you know, I think 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.600 if you look at like who he's picking it in 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:57.920 his cabinet, I think they're going to deregulate the heck 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:59.720 out of the financial industry, which I think is a 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.480 good thing. And just the people I know that work 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.120 at banks to like there's no Christmas, there's no Thanksgiving, 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.880 we're doing deals or IPO, and like with M and A, 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:11.920 like nobody's taken a holiday. So I think that, you know, 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:13.560 the next few years is going to be a very 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.960 different mark if IPOs and M and A. 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.560 It's interesting David Cohne, who has this podcast called Inside Active, 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:23.520 he was interviewing the guy from oh I can't remember, 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.400 an asset manager, but it was a mutual fund manager. 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.960 He interviews active managers, and he was saying the same 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.240 thing that M and A. He was really into as it, 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.520 and he liked the small caps for that. It's interesting. 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.600 I bet we'll hear more about that. You're you said 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.240 everything I would say about it. The only thing is 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.880 the FPX jeal to me is like catch and release. 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.440 You know, you take in these i pos right when 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.760 they hit the market. I think it's like within a month, 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.840 and then you release them. I think it's up to 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.720 four years. So the problem is a lot of these 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.680 big indexes like Spy and even the Russell, they're pretty 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:02.080 concerned a stock has to jump through a bunch of 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.280 hoops before it can even make it in there. So 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:06.760 like if you think about investing in the equity markets, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.040 and a lot of IPOs go public when they're large, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.840 you kind of miss them in that sort of toddler 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.600 phase before they become teenagers and in the index, and 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:16.240 then when they get the index, they got a small waiting. 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:18.960 So this et, after all, I wouldn't back one year 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.320 and looked, it's beating the S and P since it 0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:24.520 came out, And the reason is there's so many dogs 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.240 a lot of dog IPOs, but there's a couple Blockbusters, 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.160 Facebook now Meta Tesla, and this thing had it when 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.880 it was doing the hot hockey stick, So you only 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.960 need a couple Grand Slam home runs to totally offset 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.000 the dogs. And I just like it because it's like 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.400 a portfolio completion. You aren't getting a lot of these 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.360 stocks in your broad based indexes. So that'd be my 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:46.360 case for FPX. 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:49.120 Yeah, and twenty five years ago, when I first started working, 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.680 like Russell would only add IPOs at the end of 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:53.800 the year, you know, at the June rebalance. Then they 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.440 changed it to like I think monthly or quarterly. So 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:58.840 you agree, And I don't think it's as like hot 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.560 sauce ish, like like you can kind of like keep 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.040 this mild, yeah, mild. 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:06.320 It's like the blue cheese they give with the wings. 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.040 I mean, it's not like your main course, right, but 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.200 it's not Yeah, no, this is going to be moderate 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:12.000 blue cheese. 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:14.320 I mean, does make wings taste better, that's for sure. 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.560 Okay, So so essentially after the hot sauce chel, this 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:19.520 is where they're just kidding. 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:23.199 This is where a little bit of crypto. And I 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.280 think this is interesting because we've talked about this before 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:27.720 Bitcoin ran away with the year. 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.639 We've talked about vicoin on this listen. This was the 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:31.440 year of bitcoin. 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:32.400 It was the year of Bitcoin. 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.840 Yeah, we've talked a little bit about ethereum a little 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:37.880 and how you've been kind of anti Eric. 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.320 Well, I've just said etherym ETFs coming out after Bitcoin. 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.880 ETFs is like the headliner coming on after the main 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:47.760 main band. Like it'd be like Sister Hazel coming on 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.280 after Nirvana. Who in the hell would stay for that? 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:50.520 Right? 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:53.320 And I was right. These things have not taken in 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.960 that much money. I think they'll succeed over time, but 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:59.639 Bitcoin is the main event, and it felt a little 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:01.000 like a get this man. 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.320 John Dobby says, twenty twenty five is the year of 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:03.680 e theory. 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:06.560 That's why. Yeah, that's interesting. I like it. Well, I 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.200 mean the ether people are gonna love this. They're looking 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:10.760 for anything. 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:12.879 I mean Bitcoin. First of all, it was like a 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:16.200 lot of front running for you know, before these ETFs launch, 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:18.400 and you know, I know you've covered this extensively, Eric, 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.919