1 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to Chillions. 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 2: I'm Joel Webber and I am Eric belchernas Eric almost 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five here. 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I know it. I get to write my outlook. 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 3: We've got reviews coming up. 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: Oh those were due already. All of that was due already. 7 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: The good news here. 8 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 3: No, no, dude, not the numbers, not the written part. Yeah, 9 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 3: the number that's the important stuff. 10 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: Though, the good thing is we're gonna have some help 11 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: today about how to think about what's gonna be coming 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: at us next year. 13 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 3: Yeah. So even though I have an outlook, our outlooks, 14 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 3: we can't really talk about like tickers that much. We 15 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 3: can't give investment advice. But there are people who look 16 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 3: at ETFs by ETFs. We're calling them ETF strategists. 17 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, what do they do? 18 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 3: They are again, we had a side show called ETF 19 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 3: master Chefs. To me, they are chefs that make portfolios 20 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 3: of using ETF ingredients. So they are, in my opinion, 21 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: the best shoppers of ETFs out there. So when they 22 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: have a list, it's usually not the most obvious ETFs 23 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 3: in Maybe another metaphor that I like to use for 24 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: these and what we're going to talk about today is 25 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: remember the video stores in the nineties and eighties, when 26 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 3: you'd go and there'd be like a wall saying employee picks. 27 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, and they'd have those little like coin things that 28 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 2: you would like take off the hook, yes, tick to 29 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 2: the counter. 30 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 3: And a lot of the movies were not obvious, right, 31 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 3: That's where you'd find like some like you know, foreign 32 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 3: movie or something from the seventies that was gritty. And 33 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 3: I learned to really trust the employee picks. And they're 34 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: the people who were at the counter and would love 35 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 3: to have a conversation about movies. This is old school 36 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 3: video stores. That is what ETF strategists are to me 37 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 3: for ETFs. They are nerds at the highest level. And 38 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 3: when they have ETFs, not only it's interesting to pick out, 39 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: like what ETF did you pick? But why'd you pick it? 40 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 3: Because they have a they have to put a portfolio together, 41 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: they have to like work the macro theme into so 42 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: it's kind of a two for interview when you talk 43 00:01:58,680 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 3: to them. 44 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 2: So joining us on this episode, John Dobby of Astoria 45 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: Portfolio Advisors, this time on Trillions as story is ten 46 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 2: ETFs for twenty twenty five. 47 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: John, Welcome back to Trillions. 48 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 4: Great to be here. 49 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 2: You've been on trillions before, you've been on the Master 50 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: Chef episodes that Eric referred to. I was kind of 51 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: taken aback by how good of performance twenty twenty four 52 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 2: was when you did your your ten picks. So you 53 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 2: just copy and paste right twenty twenty four into twenty 54 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 2: twenty five and repeat a. 55 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 4: Little different, little different. Yeah, we were last year. We're 56 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 4: pretty bold up. You know, we thought the FED was 57 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 4: going to cut We had an Ernin's recovery here in 58 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 4: the US, and you know, the average stock valuations were 59 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 4: is not that expensive, so we thought it was kind 60 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 4: of made a lot of sense to own a lot 61 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 4: of equity picks last. 62 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: Year, and how good were your picks last year? 63 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 4: So last year's and I would just question people to say, like, 64 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 4: you know, we've got GIBS compliant sma's fact sheets on 65 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 4: our websites. We have ETFs that you could look at 66 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 4: the more star rankings, but inevitably people always ask me, 67 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 4: you know, how did last year's you know, let's do so. 68 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just going to get out of the 69 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: way by donut first. 70 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 4: Equate to basket was up twenty one percent last year. 71 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 4: You know, we have global macro ideas as international does 72 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 4: fixed income, there's alternative. So you know, the the equo 73 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 4: ait SMP was up twenty six percent. You know since 74 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 4: our publication, our equated basket was up twenty one percent, 75 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:32,679 Speaker 4: So you know, I was pretty happy with it. You know, 76 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 4: one hundred percent of the ideas were in the money. 77 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 4: Let's say usually about seventy eighty percent of the ideas 78 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 4: are like positive returns. So I think it was, you know, 79 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 4: in retrospect, this year I think was a fairly easy call, 80 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 4: but very different from next year. 81 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: So so nothing from last year's list can be on 82 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: this year's list. 83 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 4: I you know, Eric, you know this. But if I 84 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 4: put spy img you know GLD in the list every year, 85 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 4: like no one's going to read it, right, So the 86 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 4: idea is to give kind of unique, you know, actionable 87 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 4: investment ideas. So I do like to kind of change 88 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: it up. There could be a theme like small caps, 89 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 4: which is repeated, but we would want to change the ticker. 90 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 3: Let's say, let's talk about that top of the list 91 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 3: is small caps. Somebody I kimera where I read it, 92 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 3: Maybe it was you said that small caps are potentially 93 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 3: the opportunity of a lifetime right now. Unlike international, they've 94 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 3: got you know, potential. You have two small cap ETFs 95 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 3: on here. I'll read them off, Joel. You told me 96 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 3: if you've heard of it, either of these Wisdom Tree 97 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 3: US Small Cap Quality Divoting Growth Fund and the alps 98 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 3: oh Shares US Small Cap Quality divin ETF. 99 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: Those tickers are dg RS and o U S m 100 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: over two. 101 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's first talk small caps. I feel like 102 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 3: small caps. We've seen this movie before. It's always supposed 103 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: to be the year of small caps. They have a 104 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 3: nice little month or two and then bam, large cap 105 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 3: Q typestocks take over. And I've seen it happen over 106 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 3: and over and over, you know, like that Marshall Lynch video. 107 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 3: You just got to run through a guy's face over 108 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 3: and over and that was his key to like being 109 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: a good running back. The cues to me is Marshaun Lynch, 110 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,119 Speaker 3: and the defender is the small caps. They just can't 111 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 3: ever get going, let alone a regime change. You think 112 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 3: this is the year. 113 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 4: I think so. I mean I think as a prudent 114 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 4: investor that is trying to buy low and sell high. 115 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 4: You know, cues are pretty expensive right now. They did 116 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 4: that big rebounds last year where they modified the weights 117 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 4: and you know they lowered some of the MACS seven exposure. 118 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 4: So it's not as egregious, let's say, as like let's 119 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 4: say in the S and P five hundred. But I mean, 120 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 4: you know, we had an epic rally right last two 121 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 4: years in the SMP. It's almost six percent between last 122 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: year and this year. So it's just harfed me with 123 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 4: a straight face to talk to an advisor and say, look, 124 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 4: we're going to just be overweight US large cap, but 125 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 4: I just think you've got to play that margin of 126 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 4: safety and small caps. You know, they're cheaper in the 127 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 4: products that we use. You know, there's some underlying alpha signals, 128 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 4: but you know, no doubt the call is that, like 129 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 4: you know, we're going to have like a positive economic 130 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 4: drop backdrop. You know you've got like the red sweep. 131 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 4: You know, there is like a trump put is what 132 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 4: we're saying. So like, do you still want to be 133 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 4: overweight you know ques and spies or do you want 134 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 4: to like take a little bit off and put it 135 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 4: into like small caps And we would say use some 136 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 4: small caps. 137 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: And why these two Well. 138 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 4: I mean, so you know, last year, let's say, we 139 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 4: would have used the S and P six hundred, you know, 140 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 4: the SPSM, which is just like the benchmark. But you know, 141 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 4: in small caps, you know, there is some underlying alpha 142 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 4: signals that you can gather. And I think these two products, 143 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 4: you know, not only have they performed better then let's say, 144 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 4: like the small cap index, but it's really kind of 145 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 4: what we would do, Like we run SMAs and like 146 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: so the ousm uh, you know has one hundred stocks, 147 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 4: let's say, right, which is kind of what we would do. 148 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 4: And we've got a couple of vtfs which we have 149 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 4: like very concentrated portfolios. So I think that you know, 150 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 4: if you look at let's say the medium multiple for 151 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 4: small caps, they trade the thirty fifth percentile. Large caps 152 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 4: are in the top percent ale. And here here's one 153 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 4: stat and I want to get two monkey with stats. 154 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 4: But like, you know, the main point that we've been 155 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 4: arguing is that there are other growth opportunities besides the 156 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 4: MAG seven. Right, So if you just look at the 157 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 4: S and P five hundred and four hundred, there's two 158 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 4: hundred and forty stocks that have had Earnin's growth of 159 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 4: more than twenty five percent over the last twelve months. 160 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 4: That's a lot of stocks. There's forty one that have 161 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 4: grown their earnings fasted in the video, fifty nine that 162 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 4: have grown their earnings fasted in Amazon, ninety two grown 163 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 4: faster in Meta, and one hundred and seventy fast in Google. 164 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 4: So you know you can stay long queues or you 165 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 4: know the MAG seventy TF. But you know, I look 166 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 4: at like sentiment it is so stretched, right. You know 167 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 4: that MAG seventy TIF from Roundhills gained like a billion 168 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 4: dollars like in the last year. I'm a tremendous job, 169 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 4: but I'm like, there's so many late cycle indicators I 170 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 4: see out there, and you know, at the end of 171 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 4: the day, we're supposed to be buying low and selling high, right, 172 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 4: that's what advisors want us to do. So that's the 173 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 4: kind of restaurant for small ceps. 174 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 3: What you're talking about, This idea that okay, the MAG 175 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: seven it can go any further the evaluations, I feel 176 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 3: like it points to this like possible existential crisis. Like 177 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 3: someone like yourself who's very educated, you've had mentors, you've 178 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 3: seen markets before. It just seems like this market sometimes 179 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 3: goes against everything that people have been taught and because 180 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: I agree with you, it all makes sense. Like it's 181 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 3: their due, right, That's how they're due to like have 182 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 3: a bad year, but they were due like one hundred 183 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 3: percent ago. Like that's the problem. They're always due and 184 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 3: they just keep like I said, Marshawn lynching everybody. 185 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, well I the analogy I would say is that, 186 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 4: like we have these conversations with advises, like, Okay, let's 187 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 4: let's first of all, we're not saying to sell all 188 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: your spies and your cures. We're saying, like, take a 189 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 4: portion of it, take a third of it. Right, So 190 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 4: here's the options that we go through advisors. Okay, you know, 191 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 4: do you want to buy value? And they're like, all right, 192 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,839 Speaker 4: that's it. Value works like one or twice every ten years. Right, 193 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 4: So like we're not gonna like play that game international, right. 194 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 4: You know you have your Europe versus US tweet that's 195 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 4: been going viral. I mean that's just like nobody wants 196 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 4: to buy international, right, So sell your spies and ques 197 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 4: to buy something that rarely ever works. So that's out 198 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 4: of the option. Then we get into this conversation equal weight, 199 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 4: which they're more receptive to. Right, So rsp is taken 200 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 4: in like thirteen billion year you know, INFLOS year to date, 201 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 4: and it's up to like sixty five billions. So it 202 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 4: is like a big reputable product. We think there's flaws 203 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 4: with like you know, equal weight indices. Small caps is 204 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 4: something that like, you know, I think is more realistic 205 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 4: that people would till to so they're like, all right, 206 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 4: we'll give that a shot. Like we're not going to 207 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 4: buy value, We're not going to buy international, you know. 208 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 4: So we're just trying to like tell people like, look, 209 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 4: let's look for a margin to say to be you're 210 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 4: right or to the point that it's like a low train, 211 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 4: local automotive that just keep powering through. But you know, 212 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 4: the the economic history would say, like if you've got 213 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 4: a supportive backdrop for risk and you've got this you know, 214 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 4: trump put and a pro red sweep, you know that 215 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 4: would better for small caps. 216 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 2: Okay, John, I'm gonna keep going down the list, but 217 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 2: I gotta ask you there were two ETFs for small 218 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 2: cap there, and there's ten overall. 219 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: Can you count? 220 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 4: You know, you know, here's the backdrop with that is 221 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 4: that I so the history of this report was that 222 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 4: I was on the cell side as like a content 223 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 4: you know, ETF content producer, and I did want to 224 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 4: go to the buy side. 225 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: I wanted to join. 226 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 4: So I'd go on these interviews and be like, you know, 227 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 4: I want to you know, manage money, and they would 228 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 4: be like, well, you've got no track record, you can't 229 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 4: get a job here. So that had to put together 230 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 4: a report to kind of get a track record. And 231 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,359 Speaker 4: then I started doing that and I had good performance, 232 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 4: and they're like, well, you actually don't like track you know, 233 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 4: any kind of real money. Long story short, you know, 234 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 4: the list used to have just ten, but over the 235 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 4: last few years, as we are like so far deep 236 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 4: in this economic recovery, S and P has been on 237 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: this bull market for you know, thirteen years, we added 238 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 4: some other tickers you know, for that theme, but it's 239 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:01,839 Speaker 4: usually like ten themes. 240 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, fourteen, yeah, alright, alright, just checking, Okay, so what's 241 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 2: your next theme? 242 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, to Eric's point, you know, I do 243 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 4: think that the mag seven is you know, a theme 244 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 4: that you should tilt away from. And we firmly believe 245 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 4: that we run SMAs, you know, quantitative stock SMAs. We've 246 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 4: been doing it for you know, the last seven years 247 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 4: at Astoria We've always equally weighted. You know, back in 248 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 4: Maryland's research in the late nineties early two thousands, when 249 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 4: we put together like these quant baskets, we used to 250 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 4: always equal weight. So, you know, about a year ago, 251 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 4: so we launched ROE, which is an equally weighted quality 252 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 4: TF and because we were worried about the mag seven. 253 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 4: So that fun launched in August first of twenty twenty three, 254 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 4: and it takes you know, four or five months to 255 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 4: launch it. So we were thinking about equal weight, like 256 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 4: very very far a long time ago. So the problem 257 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 4: that we find when when you use the equal weight 258 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 4: Russell one index or the S and P five hundred 259 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 4: equate index, you get this like concentration in like small value, 260 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 4: and your tech exposure goes from let's say thirty percent 261 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 4: spot I to like fifteen percent. And you know, one 262 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 4: thing I'll agree with Eric is that like I just 263 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 4: I don't want ever want to be on the way tech. 264 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 4: I think tech is just like a power train locomotive. 265 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 4: You want to stay along it. So if you sell 266 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 4: your spy to buy you know RSP or you know 267 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 4: there's Russell one thousand equate ETFs, you know you're going 268 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 4: from like large growth, large blend to small value and 269 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 4: not just you know, not something that we wanted to do. 270 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 4: So for are we What we wanted to do is 271 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 4: basically take the SMP sector weights and kind of match it. 272 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 4: So we've had good performance. You know, we've beaten the 273 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 4: SMP equate in Next by like six hundred and fifty 274 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 4: basis points since we launched. And it's one hundred eight 275 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 4: one hundred stocks equally weighted, so each stock is one 276 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 4: percent weight whereas in the S and P five hundred 277 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 4: equated NEXT each stock is twenty BIPs. So you know 278 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 4: you're really not going to get like that marginal contribution 279 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 4: to return if like let's say in the video, goes 280 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 4: up two hundred percent a year, So that that's something 281 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 4: that's kind of near and dear at our heart. 282 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 3: Let me talk about this one here. This is one 283 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 3: of my most underrated ETFs, which is the first trust 284 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 3: Us Equity Opportunity TF. It used to be called the 285 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 3: I P O E t F. It is an IPO 286 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 3: et F. It's IPOs and SPINOFS. Why that that is 287 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: an interesting pick? I like it? 288 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 4: Okay, So one thing we wrote about in our report 289 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 4: is that you know, we have to go into far 290 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 4: corners of the market to try and find you know, 291 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 4: attractive you know returns. Let's say, just because we think, 292 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 4: you know, the sp and the queues are kind of 293 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 4: expensive and crowded, you know, so something like FPX is 294 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 4: kind of eediosyncratic, like you know, yes, like the regulatory 295 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 4: backdrop is improvement, but whether the FED cuts you know 296 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 4: or raises, I don't know if it's going to necessarily 297 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 4: drive the IPO spinoff you know kind of market. So, uh, 298 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 4: you know, I've been following this thing for a while. 299 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 4: I think the underlying provider Josef I can't remember, I 300 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 4: can't pronounce his last name, but you know, he's been 301 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 4: in this space. He's like the one guy that does 302 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 4: this index, and like he's been doing it for like 303 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 4: as long as I've been working actually, which is like 304 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 4: over twenty years. So last year it's actually had good returns. 305 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 4: You know, it's up like forty seven percent of the 306 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 4: last one year, spies up thirty four percent. It's got 307 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 4: almost a billion dollars as one hundred stocks. You know, 308 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 4: they capped, you know, the stocks, you know, ten percent 309 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 4: on the upside. So but it is like, you know, 310 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 4: the largest one hundred most liquid companies that are either 311 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 4: gone public, whether they're an IPO or spin off. And 312 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 4: then there's also some acquiers of recent IPOs that included 313 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 4: in it. 314 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: So does it really only work though, if there's a 315 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: lot of IPOs. 316 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 4: Good point. I mean, I wouldn't say the you know, 317 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 4: the IPO calend that was as robust last year as 318 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 4: what we think will be in the next you know, 319 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 4: you like, the one thing about like, you know, Trump's 320 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 4: presidency I would say is that, you know, I think 321 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 4: if you look at like who he's picking it in 322 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 4: his cabinet, I think they're going to deregulate the heck 323 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 4: out of the financial industry, which I think is a 324 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 4: good thing. And just the people I know that work 325 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 4: at banks to like there's no Christmas, there's no Thanksgiving, 326 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 4: we're doing deals or IPO, and like with M and A, 327 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 4: like nobody's taken a holiday. So I think that, you know, 328 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 4: the next few years is going to be a very 329 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 4: different mark if IPOs and M and A. 330 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 3: It's interesting David Cohne, who has this podcast called Inside Active, 331 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 3: he was interviewing the guy from oh I can't remember, 332 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 3: an asset manager, but it was a mutual fund manager. 333 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 3: He interviews active managers, and he was saying the same 334 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 3: thing that M and A. He was really into as it, 335 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 3: and he liked the small caps for that. It's interesting. 336 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 3: I bet we'll hear more about that. You're you said 337 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 3: everything I would say about it. The only thing is 338 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 3: the FPX jeal to me is like catch and release. 339 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 3: You know, you take in these i pos right when 340 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: they hit the market. I think it's like within a month, 341 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 3: and then you release them. I think it's up to 342 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 3: four years. So the problem is a lot of these 343 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 3: big indexes like Spy and even the Russell, they're pretty 344 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 3: concerned a stock has to jump through a bunch of 345 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 3: hoops before it can even make it in there. So 346 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 3: like if you think about investing in the equity markets, 347 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 3: and a lot of IPOs go public when they're large, 348 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 3: you kind of miss them in that sort of toddler 349 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 3: phase before they become teenagers and in the index, and 350 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 3: then when they get the index, they got a small waiting. 351 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 3: So this et, after all, I wouldn't back one year 352 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 3: and looked, it's beating the S and P since it 353 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 3: came out, And the reason is there's so many dogs 354 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 3: a lot of dog IPOs, but there's a couple Blockbusters, 355 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 3: Facebook now Meta Tesla, and this thing had it when 356 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 3: it was doing the hot hockey stick, So you only 357 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 3: need a couple Grand Slam home runs to totally offset 358 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: the dogs. And I just like it because it's like 359 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 3: a portfolio completion. You aren't getting a lot of these 360 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 3: stocks in your broad based indexes. So that'd be my 361 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 3: case for FPX. 362 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, and twenty five years ago, when I first started working, 363 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 4: like Russell would only add IPOs at the end of 364 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 4: the year, you know, at the June rebalance. Then they 365 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 4: changed it to like I think monthly or quarterly. So 366 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 4: you agree, And I don't think it's as like hot 367 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 4: sauce ish, like like you can kind of like keep 368 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 4: this mild, yeah, mild. 369 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 3: It's like the blue cheese they give with the wings. 370 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 3: I mean, it's not like your main course, right, but 371 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 3: it's not Yeah, no, this is going to be moderate 372 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 3: blue cheese. 373 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: I mean, does make wings taste better, that's for sure. 374 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 3: Okay, So so essentially after the hot sauce chel, this 375 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 3: is where they're just kidding. 376 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,199 Speaker 2: This is where a little bit of crypto. And I 377 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 2: think this is interesting because we've talked about this before 378 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 2: Bitcoin ran away with the year. 379 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 3: We've talked about vicoin on this listen. This was the 380 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 3: year of bitcoin. 381 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 1: It was the year of Bitcoin. 382 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've talked a little bit about ethereum a little 383 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 2: and how you've been kind of anti Eric. 384 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 3: Well, I've just said etherym ETFs coming out after Bitcoin. 385 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,880 Speaker 3: ETFs is like the headliner coming on after the main 386 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 3: main band. Like it'd be like Sister Hazel coming on 387 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 3: after Nirvana. Who in the hell would stay for that? 388 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: Right? 389 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 3: And I was right. These things have not taken in 390 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 3: that much money. I think they'll succeed over time, but 391 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 3: Bitcoin is the main event, and it felt a little 392 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 3: like a get this man. 393 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: John Dobby says, twenty twenty five is the year of 394 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: e theory. 395 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 3: That's why. Yeah, that's interesting. I like it. Well, I 396 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 3: mean the ether people are gonna love this. They're looking 397 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: for anything. 398 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 4: I mean Bitcoin. First of all, it was like a 399 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 4: lot of front running for you know, before these ETFs launch, 400 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 4: and you know, I know you've covered this extensively, Eric, 401 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 4: but I mean it's hard with a stray face to 402 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 4: buy an asset that's been up so much in the 403 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 4: last year, right, And like you know, there's levels I 404 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 4: think you should think about, Like you know, Bitcoin that 405 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,719 Speaker 4: one hundred thousand. You know, I kind of stalled, But 406 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 4: you know, Ethereum is you know down, it's like down 407 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 4: thirty five percent from US all time highs. I personally 408 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 4: would rather buy a basket, Like I'm interested in the 409 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 4: b tw like the bit wise OTC product that's like 410 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 4: the kind of the index approach, just because I think 411 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 4: it's a little bit safer. But that is OTC, and 412 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 4: you know it is ten ets for twenty twenty five 413 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 4: when it's going to move to the NYC pretty soon. 414 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 4: But you know, ethereum, I think is just something that's cheap. 415 00:18:59,359 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: You know. 416 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 4: Look, I don't think cryptos and acid to ignore. 417 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:02,959 Speaker 1: Uh. 418 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 4: You know these big institutions putting their names behind it, 419 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 4: you know, black Rock, Fidelity, and you know these firms 420 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 4: like they go out and they meet with like central banks, 421 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 4: you know, presidents of countries. So I think you want 422 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 4: to own crypto, but I think you have to be tactically. 423 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 4: You have to wait for a better entry point for 424 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 4: a bitcoin. 425 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 2: And that looks like if you're I just want to 426 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 2: call out though this lot your logic there sounds a 427 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 2: lot like the mag seven logic, which is this thing 428 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 2: number go up and and John Dobby says, maybe maybe 429 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 2: don't keep going up. 430 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 3: Were you trained as a value investor? Like did you 431 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 3: mentor under a valuables in. 432 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 4: Ninety nine when I started, like, momentum was not a 433 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 4: big factor. 434 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 3: It was not like you know, it wasn't the way 435 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 3: you started ninety nine. So you saw the Internet bubble 436 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 3: burst like two years into your job, and you're like, okay, 437 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 3: well I get it. That probably shaped your whole world 438 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 3: views absolutely. 439 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 4: I mean, I think depending on when anyone enters industry, 440 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 4: they're going to have like these preconceived you know biases. 441 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 3: For sure, Well the FED let this part of the 442 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 3: issue is well, the Fed let that happen again. 443 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 4: So I don't know, but like the FED at like 444 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 4: you know, the FED funds is like four seven five 445 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 4: four five. So I mean, the one thing about Trump, 446 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 4: and you know, I'm not a big political guy. I 447 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 4: have to be moderate by general because I have clients 448 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 4: on both sides. Zdel I would say, you know, he's 449 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 4: been a fixture in New York City in New Jersey 450 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 4: for a while, and you know I'm from Queens, he's 451 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 4: from queens like he is a you know, do whatever 452 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 4: it takes, right, So I think that he will keep 453 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 4: the economy floating. I do think that he keeps crypto floating. 454 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 4: Two because he's kind of pretty out loud with it. 455 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 4: I just went by Bitcoin up, you know, whatever it is, 456 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 4: you're to date one hundred two hundred percent. 457 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's up a lot. Yeah, it's it makes sense. 458 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 3: We'll see if you're right. I guess let's talk a 459 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: little bit about the mortgage ETFs D MBS, double line 460 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 3: mortgage ETF and Spider portfolio back bond ETF S p MB. 461 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 3: You know, remember when I pitched the I pitched well, 462 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 3: I pitched it. It was a Muni show. I pitched him 463 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 3: and he was started falling asleep. Mortgage just a little 464 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 3: more interest. 465 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: THU, Yeah, my pulse is still pretty low. 466 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, make this interesting. 467 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 4: Well, I would say that like two three years ago, 468 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 4: we had a lot of BONDI tifts in the list. 469 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 4: We didn't have as much equities because that was kind 470 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 4: of like our outlook. I would still rather own equities, 471 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 4: you know, next year, than I would bonds. In general, 472 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 4: most credit spreads are very very tight, whether it's you know, 473 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 4: traditional high quality corporate HYO UH spreads, mortgage backed securities, 474 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 4: you know, they're not as tight, so there is some 475 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 4: you know, kind of intrinsic value there. So that's really 476 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 4: the story. We don't have to go deep into it. 477 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 4: But I I don't love fixed income in general with 478 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 4: you know, higher inflation. And I think you know the 479 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 4: average stock you know, equal weight, you know value KBWB KRE, 480 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 4: there's much more upside relative than on you know, corporate 481 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 4: creditor HYO bonds. 482 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 2: Okay, alternative equity, you got merger arbitrage a RB great ticker. 483 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 2: What what are you seeing in UH in that space 484 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 2: that makes you makes you want to get in there? 485 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 4: So you know, and like we don't own ARB, we 486 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 4: don't own FPX. The idea of again for this report 487 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 4: is like get the thought out there that you've got 488 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 4: to look somewhere else besides US large cap equities to 489 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 4: find attractive risk returns. And but yes, it is part 490 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 4: of like the whole dear you know regulation theme. You 491 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 4: know it's low standar aviation. The RBTF has got like 492 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 4: a three stand aviation. If you look at like let's 493 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 4: say AQUI, it's like fifteen percent. So it's max straw down, 494 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 4: you know, since inception is like three percent. So it's 495 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 4: a low volve strategy and it's meant to play the 496 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 4: kind of you know M and A theam let's say, so. 497 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 3: You know it's interesting, so let's go over M and A. 498 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 3: This is merger R right, So you're looking at okay, 499 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 3: there's an announced merger, because if you can't get ahead 500 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 3: of that, that's illegal. Just FYI. That's why I kind 501 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 3: of like theme ets so that equal weight because if 502 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 3: you equal way to theme, that's hot. Like AI. Sometimes 503 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,199 Speaker 3: the smaller companies are the ones that get bought. That's 504 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 3: the only way to get ahead of true merger mergers 505 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 3: and arbitrage. But okay, so it's announced, but there's always 506 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 3: a small chance the deal falls through, and so there's 507 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 3: this premium between the price now and the price that 508 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 3: closes at This is trying to capture that correct correct okay, 509 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 3: And that's why the volatilities look because that use short 510 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 3: beta to do that. 511 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: Okay. 512 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 3: So it's a true alt these true altstroll. It's really 513 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 3: a great concept. Hedge funds love it, institutions love it. 514 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 3: They are a tougher sell with the general advisor they need. 515 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 3: I just think either it's too complicated, doesn't move enough 516 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:31,959 Speaker 3: hard to explain to the client. The clients say it's 517 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 3: only a three percent, but you're like, well on a 518 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 3: sharp ratio is high? Is? 519 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 1: I don't care. 520 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 3: I think that's the problem because these alts that do 521 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 3: it the real way have have struggled to get going 522 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 3: even though an institution would like this, although an institution 523 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 3: would go and get it directly from a hedge fund offline. 524 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 4: And that's what the concept that we're trying to deliver is. Like, 525 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 4: you know, if you're a four billion dollar family office, 526 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 4: like you know, we want you to, like now think 527 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 4: about merger ARB as like a way to kind of 528 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 4: get unique stress of risk and return, but do it 529 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 4: as an SMA with a specialized manager. 530 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 3: All Right, you have another one on here which looks 531 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 3: like it has a story in the name, which I 532 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 3: don't mind a little self plugging here. It looks like 533 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:13,880 Speaker 3: you have two one here that are your own. That's 534 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 3: that's okay, We'll let us slide. I mean, if you're 535 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 3: not gonna eat your own cooking, who else should? Well, 536 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 3: the funny thing. 537 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 4: Is if you if you look at like so last 538 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 4: year is because I don't like to repeat tickers, Joel, 539 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 4: like it was, he's just. 540 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: Showing his cell side roots, so they won't. 541 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 4: Be on next year's list because I don't like to 542 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 4: repeat it. So, yes, we do have some of our 543 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 4: own ETFs. You know, if you look at like the 544 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 4: Baron's round table, you're ahead report. You know, some of 545 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 4: the portfolio managers do have their own mutual funds in there. 546 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 4: So you know, we like to eat our own cooking, 547 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 4: let's say. And if it fits the theme, and if 548 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 4: it's not a repeat from last year, then we'll go 549 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 4: ahead with it. 550 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 3: This is called the AXS. The Story of Real Assets 551 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:56,959 Speaker 3: ETF Now tickers PPI, PPI. You got good tickers here, Joel. I. 552 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 3: When I wrote the first book on ETF Toolbox, I 553 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 3: interviewed institutions and they love the real assets, which means 554 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 3: the Yell model. This guy, David Swinson wrote this book 555 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 3: bragging about how great Yell did by not using public 556 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 3: equities but by buying like timber timber, and like hedge 557 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 3: funds and private equity and alts and real stuff like 558 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 3: that you can touch and hold, and so these real 559 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 3: assets you can't get in an ETF. However, you can 560 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 3: get real assets that are like equitized like reets and stuff. 561 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 3: So I guess that's my question to you, how much 562 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 3: of this is really achievable in the ETF rapper to 563 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 3: get real assets which is largely used as an inflation 564 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 3: head or a way to incorporate the Yale model, versus 565 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 3: doing it the way that an institution would where they 566 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 3: literally buy timber. 567 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, so we definitely can't buy you know, physical timber 568 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,679 Speaker 4: or you know, I think one time Yell bought like 569 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 4: a bunch of you know woods, you know, timber and 570 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 4: actual real woods. Our point here is that like these 571 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 4: stocks are pretty cheap, like whether it's material stocks, energy stocks, industrials, reads, 572 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 4: I mean, there's utility stocks that you know, kind of 573 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 4: play into the TAM So if you look at PPI, 574 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 4: it's actually like you know, thirteen pe ratio, and you know, 575 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 4: this fits our whole, like you know, Trump's pro growth, 576 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 4: pro policy, terrorists protectionism leading too higher inflation. So and 577 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 4: this is more in like the you know, four or 578 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,360 Speaker 4: five percent allocation just to kind of offset the risk 579 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 4: on the other side of the portfolio. And you know, 580 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 4: the funny thing is like when we launched PPI, people 581 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 4: were like, oh, it's thematic, it's you know. And since 582 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 4: we launched the PPI has beaten the S and P 583 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 4: by three inchred basis points. And it's coming up on 584 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 4: a three year anniversary. And if you told me back 585 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 4: then that we beat the S and P. So it 586 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 4: kind of shows me that, you know, a there is 587 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 4: some like intrinsic value in these stocks, these you know, 588 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 4: energy industrial material stocks, and then it is value. And 589 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 4: I do think that value works like to this concept 590 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 4: of like is value investment dead? So our point is like, 591 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 4: you know, use that to kind of in your old bucket. 592 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: How much timber do you own in that? 593 00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 4: No timber? 594 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 3: No timber there are didn't you pick the timber ETF 595 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,199 Speaker 3: is your favorite ticker? One year in our one of 596 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 3: our games. 597 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 2: Uh, it was for the purposes of episode and cute 598 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: would would cut? 599 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,959 Speaker 1: I think was the one that outperformed. 600 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 3: Would right, Yeah, wouldn't cut. They're like the Timber twins. Yeah, yeah, 601 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 3: I'm around for a long time. Why don't hey, let's 602 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 3: play a little ETF game. How much assets do you 603 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 3: think wood has? It's the I shares Global Timber and 604 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 3: Forestry ETF let's see, let's test your ETF skills. This 605 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 3: is serious NERD levels question here. 606 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 4: I would say three hundred million. 607 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 3: Pretty close, one seventy five. You were within cut. What 608 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 3: guess cut? This is from Guggenheim Investco formerly Guggenheim. 609 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 4: That bonus. 610 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, over under you can do. You can 611 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: do the over. 612 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 4: Under two Well, I would I would say lower than 613 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 4: Cora Rocks because it's you know, Blackrock wressm Vesco. I 614 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 4: would say probably on the one hundred million, eighty five. 615 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:58,120 Speaker 3: Fifty five pretty good. Yeah, performance, uh, performance between the two. 616 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 3: Let's see Cut is up. Yeah, I'm curious how like 617 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 3: we're gonna go since inception? Yeah, okay, these things came 618 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 3: out a long time ago, twenty sixteen and Wood, so 619 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 3: this is about ten years and we've got a Wood 620 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 3: seriously beating it with one hundred and twelve percent versus 621 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 3: eighty seven percent for Cut. But like the market was 622 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 3: up quite a bit more during that time frame two 623 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 3: forty six So honestly, this is not a bad if 624 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,919 Speaker 3: you'd like your value, I get why you like this. 625 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 3: This beat up has a chance to run. 626 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 1: But there's no Wood in the portfolio. 627 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,680 Speaker 3: I know, going down. Well, you may want everything. 628 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 2: Now now this has been a grand tangent, just a 629 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 2: branch off to the side. 630 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: We'll bring it back to the truck. 631 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 3: These are like these are exit ramps. 632 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. 633 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: But as I tell people when I'm cheating, you know, 634 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 3: doing presentae, get back on the highway, quickly, back on 635 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 3: the higay. I don't want to end up in a lake, 636 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 3: you know what I mean, like trapped in your car. 637 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 2: Roll the window down ever so slightly. John, Let's talk 638 00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 2: about commodities. You've got a broad basket or c E 639 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 2: R Y that's despite our Bloomberg Enhanced roll yield commodity 640 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 2: strategy number K one E t F as names go. 641 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: That's a mouthful. Why why this particular? 642 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 4: So you know there there's physical commodities that we think 643 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 4: we should own to kind of play higher inflation. And 644 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 4: then it's like, you know, the real assets where it's 645 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 4: are of like you know, commodity equities. 646 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: Let's say it's so similar to to the PPI. 647 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, similar to the theme. I think you know it 648 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 4: makes sense to kind of split your exposures. Yeah, some 649 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 4: like commodities. I think you have to be active. I 650 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 4: think in realize you have to be active. So CRVY 651 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 4: is just going to try and optimize you know, the 652 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 4: roll yield, pick different points in a curve, and you know, 653 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 4: trade these futures. So I think, you know things makes 654 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 4: a lot of sense. And you know our point is 655 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 4: like with these things, like you know, two to five 656 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 4: percent of your portfolio in case inflation is going to 657 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 4: be stickier and higher for longer, and that's what's proven 658 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 4: to be the case. 659 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 3: Have you ever filled out a K one form? 660 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 4: I've definitely gotten it. It's annoying. 661 00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so isn't it weird no K one in the title. 662 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 3: It'd be like it'd be like a business going because 663 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 3: it's not the end of the world, but it's you know, 664 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 3: someone in my book referred to it as like a 665 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 3: paper cut. But I'm thinking it'd be like a convenience 666 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 3: store like wua wah saying no paper straws, or like, 667 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 3: you know, we only do plastic, and I there's some 668 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 3: people who'd be like, yeah, I'm I'm I hate paper straws, 669 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 3: Like not the end of the world, but when in doubt, 670 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 3: I'm going to pick the paper the plastic straw store 671 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 3: all l sequel. I think a K was that a 672 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 3: fair comparison to the K I think so. 673 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 1: Yeah. 674 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 4: I mean it comes so late in the tax season 675 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 4: it just kind of ruins you because, like you taxes, 676 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 4: and all of a sudden in April after the date, 677 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 4: you know, the April fifteenthdate, you get this K one. 678 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, let me do it. Yeah, people hate that 679 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 3: for man. 680 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 4: So here's some trivia. Who came up with the no 681 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 4: K one? 682 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 3: Uh? No K one? 683 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 4: Oh that was gonna be I'm gonna say, will Rhyme Yeah. 684 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,320 Speaker 3: I think will Rhyme probably started with it in the 685 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 3: label in the l and then everybody copied him. Usually 686 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 3: an Indie is the one on whose spearhead something like that. 687 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 3: But I do remember there back in the day. I 688 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,320 Speaker 3: think there was a couple that didn't have a K 689 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 3: one first trust, I think had that Caman thing where 690 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 3: that you register in the Cayman would get around the 691 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 3: K one R with FTCG and I think that was 692 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 3: the first one to do it. But I don't think 693 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 3: they said no K one. But I think an Indie 694 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 3: put no K one in the actual name. People are like, well, 695 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 3: screw it. I guess we should do that too, just 696 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 3: to let people know what they're buying and up for 697 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 3: what does it achieve here? 698 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 4: Then no K one just it doesn't have that additional 699 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 4: tax filing that is required from you know other ETFs 700 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 4: that have K one's. 701 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:43,040 Speaker 5: Let's say, sorry, bring it home, all right, last one, 702 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 5: last one, but not least oh quality growth droll. 703 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 3: I mean, as far as equities goes, this is about 704 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 3: as boring as it gets. Well maybe not so Ethan 705 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 3: on my team Athanasios and Todd Rosenbluth, these guys love 706 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 3: the garb growth reasonable price. You know, this seems like 707 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 3: garbish astoria US quality growth kings. So it's like, oh, 708 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 3: you know, we want the growth, but Joel, we don't 709 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 3: want to get too crazy. You know, we want the 710 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 3: responsible growth companies. And this is I get it. It's 711 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 3: sort of like the Goldilocks way to do growth, am 712 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 3: I right? 713 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 4: In essence? Yeah, okay, And we are capping the weights 714 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 4: on the upside. But some of the other garb ETFs 715 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 4: I would say, have like a two percent, two percent, 716 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,959 Speaker 4: three percent allocation to like whatever growth you know stocks 717 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 4: they have. You know, we'll go up to like five 718 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,080 Speaker 4: six percent. So we do own some of these mag 719 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 4: seven stocks. Like that's the thing that we're saying out 720 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 4: a story is like don't under you know, don't fade 721 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 4: mag seven because they are such a big part of 722 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 4: the stock market. But you know, cap your upside. 723 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 3: Let's say, so this ticker is g qqqq. Are you 724 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 3: saying that you start with the qes in this and 725 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 3: then you sort of trim it from there. Is that's 726 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 3: that one hundred your base index. 727 00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 4: Before this we start with a broad universe of growth stocks. 728 00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 3: For sure, it looks qish. I mean, Navidia, Apple, Microsoft 729 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 3: are the top three holdings, but their waitings are a 730 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 3: little smaller than the regular cues. But like Oracle's definitely 731 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 3: got a higher waiting than it does in the cues 732 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 3: and Broadcom it's pretty close though. Yeah, I get it. 733 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 3: It's like dietques. 734 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you've said that before, like tempered cues. 735 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 4: So we are trying to kind of combine, you know, 736 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 4: growth investing with quality mess. One thing I'll say about 737 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 4: the Nasdaq, you know ETF, is that this is like 738 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 4: no inclusion criteria outside of you just being listed on 739 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 4: the Nasdaq and being you know, the top one hundred 740 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 4: company and non financials like that to me is like 741 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 4: a maybe this is why it's so successful because it's 742 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 4: like literally no one thinking about like the portfolio construction. 743 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 4: Least in the S and P. You have to have 744 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 4: four quarters of net positive urnings. So like, you know, 745 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 4: you've got to have some type of heartbeat as a 746 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 4: company to including S and P. 747 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 3: The cues is unbridled, unbridled American capitalism. 748 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 1: Until you put the G in front of it, and 749 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: then it tempers it a little bit. 750 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 3: I know, it's like, all right, let's sober up, everybody. 751 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 3: This is getting too crazy to check. There you go. 752 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,720 Speaker 3: Now that's good sentiment. All this is very logical. 753 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 4: But if you have to like say, okay, like what's 754 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 4: going to be part of your portfolio that you can 755 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 4: kind of comfortably kind of reside on, you know, what 756 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 4: we find is that like values tough equal weight. You know, 757 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 4: we have to like you know, thread that needle with advisors, 758 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 4: but like no one's going to push back on on 759 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,480 Speaker 4: growth or quality stocks. 760 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:22,360 Speaker 2: So of the ten ETFs here and by ten, I 761 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 2: mean fourteen, three of which are your own, how how 762 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 2: are people supposed to put together a portfolio of this? 763 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 2: Are you is the idea that they're only going to 764 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 2: cook with this or or do you want them to 765 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 2: add this in little doses throughout the portfolio. 766 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,040 Speaker 4: I think the so we're talking about like the chef 767 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,799 Speaker 4: episode of Trillions, I think we're you know, small caps 768 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,840 Speaker 4: should be part of the main ingredients. I think things 769 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,880 Speaker 4: like ARB, things like you know, ce R y PPI 770 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,840 Speaker 4: should be like the side dish, you know, kind of 771 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,960 Speaker 4: like the hot sauce type ish are we I think 772 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,640 Speaker 4: could be in the main g Triple Q could be 773 00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 4: in the main I think the theoreum has to be 774 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 4: you know, on the you know, on the hot sauce bucket. 775 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 4: But it is a micro chasm of how we want 776 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 4: people to think about investing, which is like combining different 777 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 4: asca classes, different factors in a portfolio. It's not meant 778 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,439 Speaker 4: to be like, you know, the only way you put 779 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 4: all your money into UH into an investment account. 780 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 2: All right, we'll be we'll be keeping an eye on 781 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 2: this in twenty twenty five, John, John dove You've got 782 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 2: some interesting ideas here, John Dovey, thanks for joining us 783 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 2: on this episode of Trillions. 784 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:37,359 Speaker 6: Thank you, thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time. 785 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 2: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, 786 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts, Spotify. 787 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 1: Or wherever else you'd like to listen. 788 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:46,560 Speaker 6: We'd love to hear from you. 789 00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 1: We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Webber Show. He's at 790 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 1: Eric Baultness. 791 00:35:52,360 --> 00:36:01,640 Speaker 6: This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Bye