Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Rwandan backed rebel fighters are battling the Congolese army for
Speaker 2: control over the key city of Goma. African leaders have
Speaker 2: called for negotiations between Rwanda and the DRC after reports
Speaker 2: of thousands of Rwandan troops entering the city alongside M
Speaker 2: twenty three rebel fighters.
Speaker 3: We do not see.
Speaker 4: From where I said, a possibility of a military solution
Speaker 4: to the challenges that faced eastern DRC. It was, it is,
Speaker 4: and I'm sure it will continue to be the case
Speaker 4: that engagement, dialog, consultations is the only viable way out
Speaker 4: of the situation in DRC.
Speaker 2: The Rwandan president again denied this was a Rwandan offensive.
Speaker 5: Twenty three are not Rwandan's please.
Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll ask
Speaker 2: what's behind this latest round of fighting in this three
Speaker 2: decade long conflict and what the repercussions could be if
Speaker 2: a ceasefire isn't forthcoming. I'm Jennifer's Aposaga and this is
Speaker 2: the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week
Speaker 2: from the continent driving the future of global growth with
Speaker 2: the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week
Speaker 2: are Bloomberg reporter Simon Marx and also Michael Kavanaugh, who
Speaker 2: have both reported extensively throughout the region. Guys, thanks so
Speaker 2: much for being here. There's so much to discuss. This
Speaker 2: is obviously a fast moving situation. But Simon, maybe you
Speaker 2: can start us off by giving us a bit of
Speaker 2: context about who as of the people are that are
Speaker 2: involved in this fighting that we should be paying close
Speaker 2: attention to.
Speaker 3: So this is a long running conflict. It's been going
Speaker 3: on for many years in eastern Congo, and it's extensively
Speaker 3: between two groups. It's the CONGLESE Army and also the
Speaker 3: M twenty three rebel group, which is largely drawn from
Speaker 3: Congolese communities of Rwandan origin. It's a very well organized
Speaker 3: rebel group that you and experts and many observers of
Speaker 3: what's happening in eastern DRC say are backed heavily by
Speaker 3: the Rwandan state. Why Rwanda, Well, that's because Rwando are
Speaker 3: keen to see the Congles of Tutsi origin protected and
Speaker 3: their rights protected. They've had a long standing belief that
Speaker 3: Tutsis in this region have been discriminated against and their
Speaker 3: rights have not been upheld. This is really the origin
Speaker 3: of this year's long conflict that now exploded into the
Speaker 3: streets of Goma. Well, M twenty three have come in
Speaker 3: and seized large portions of the city, and.
Speaker 2: From my understanding, much of M twenty three is made
Speaker 2: up of those with Tutsi origin.
Speaker 5: Michael, is that fair to say?
Speaker 6: It's fair to say, you know, the Tutsis and Hutusa
Speaker 6: found in a lot of the countries around the region,
Speaker 6: specifically in Rwanda, of course, but there are also in
Speaker 6: Uganda and Burundi, in particular in Urundi and then in
Speaker 6: eastern Congo as well. And throughout history there have been
Speaker 6: movements of this population throughout the region for various reasons,
Speaker 6: colonial reasons, economic reasons, and reasons of violence, because there
Speaker 6: has been tension over the years between the two communities
Speaker 6: that the Hutus and the Tutsis, and you know, the
Speaker 6: most famous one of course for us in our lifetimes
Speaker 6: or many of our lifetimes. So there are in nineteen
Speaker 6: ninety four Rwandan genocide which killed probably you know, between
Speaker 6: eight hundred thousand and a million, mostly Tutsis but also
Speaker 6: moderate Hutus during that time, and that's really the impetus
Speaker 6: for the current conflict. All these years later because after
Speaker 6: the genocide, Rwandan mainly Twozi led rebel movement pushed the
Speaker 6: Hutu movement out that had the government that had killed
Speaker 6: all the Chutsis and Rwanda pushed them into Congo, and
Speaker 6: then a war broke out in Congo. The Congolese government
Speaker 6: was oversthrown. But we've seen sort of the embers of
Speaker 6: this war still burning and the embers of the genocide
Speaker 6: still burning in eastern Congo and throughout the country ever since.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned, of course this has been going on
Speaker 2: for several decades. Maybe you can contextualize what the current
Speaker 2: conflict though, is over. Is it still dating back to
Speaker 2: a lot of these tribal issues that we saw, and
Speaker 2: why is it concentrated in Goma Michael.
Speaker 6: It's still related in part to what happened all the
Speaker 6: way back then. These communities still exist and there is
Speaker 6: a rebel group known as the FDLR, the Democratic Forces
Speaker 6: for the Liberation of Rwanda, whose origins are found in
Speaker 6: the perpetrators of the genocide. Though there are probably almost
Speaker 6: no people who've perpetrated genocides still among this group, they
Speaker 6: still the n per want and government thinks that they
Speaker 6: promote this genocidal ideology, and they believe they're.
Speaker 1: An existential threat to the country.
Speaker 6: They believe that genocidal ideology is a threat to Rwanda
Speaker 6: entirely and they need to completely stamp it out. At
Speaker 6: the same time, Eastern Congo is a place where rebel
Speaker 6: groups thrive.
Speaker 1: They're probably more than one hundred that are there. It's
Speaker 1: a chaotic place.
Speaker 6: There are rebels that oppose the governments of Uganda, of Rwanda,
Speaker 6: of Burundi. It's a place where there are many small
Speaker 6: rebel groups that protect local communities. There are ethnic issues,
Speaker 6: there are land issues, and of course there are economic
Speaker 6: issues as well, because Eastern Congo is extremely rich in
Speaker 6: natural resources. The land is fertile, the land is full
Speaker 6: of minerals. It's the most important place in the world
Speaker 6: for a mineral and are called coltan, which is in
Speaker 6: just about all of your mobile phones and all of
Speaker 6: your laptops. And there's tin ore, there's gold, and especially
Speaker 6: in the last few years with the rise in the
Speaker 6: price of gold and some of the other minerals located there,
Speaker 6: we're seeing a real update take in conflict linked to
Speaker 6: the exploitation of minerals, which are then smuggled through neighboring countries,
Speaker 6: enriching armed groups, enriching certain communities, enriching Congo's neighbors, but
Speaker 6: not enriching the Congolese. And so this has become a
Speaker 6: massive flashpoint between local communities and between the regional nations
Speaker 6: there who are all benefiting in some way from Eastern
Speaker 6: Congo's resources. But it's resulting in pretty serious conflict and
Speaker 6: that ends up in Goma. Goma is really the focal
Speaker 6: point because it's the main trading hub. It's right on
Speaker 6: the border with Rwanda, near lakes, It's near lots of
Speaker 6: different ways where you can sort of transport various natural
Speaker 6: resources to both sides, and so Goma has become the
Speaker 6: focal point. It's also where the UN is based and
Speaker 6: where most NGOs are based.
Speaker 2: And we've heard President Kagame of Rwanda deny that Rwanda
Speaker 2: has any involvement.
Speaker 5: Is he still standing by that right now? Simon?
Speaker 2: I mean, what are we hearing from Rwanda especially about
Speaker 2: this current conflict because it is getting international attention.
Speaker 3: Yeah, President off Rwanda has been quite coy about this
Speaker 3: issue for a long time. For many years, he outright
Speaker 3: denied any involvement or links to the m twenty three
Speaker 3: rebel group. But in recent years, UN experts have done
Speaker 3: a lot of probing on this issue and have found
Speaker 3: lots of material evidence of Rwandan troops based inside Congo
Speaker 3: and also weapons acquired by the Rwandan army also appearing
Speaker 3: on the battlefield. So it's become very hard for Porlka
Speaker 3: Garmi to continue with this outright denial, and I think
Speaker 3: more recently it's fair to say he's become let's say,
Speaker 3: a bit more philosophical about Rwanda's position on this. He
Speaker 3: often talks about the importance of protecting Congolese communities of
Speaker 3: Tutsi origin in the country. He often talks about the
Speaker 3: need to eradicate the FDLR group, which Michael just mentioned.
Speaker 3: So it's clear Rwanda has a very strong ideological stance
Speaker 3: in this conflict, but there are many who think that
Speaker 3: it goes way beyond that. It's also a quest for
Speaker 3: ownership of the land of the economic riches in this
Speaker 3: area that Rwanda benefits from.
Speaker 2: Stick with us, Simon and Michael when we come back,
Speaker 2: we're going to talk a little bit more about the
Speaker 2: international reaction and what impact it could have on the
Speaker 2: wider region.
Speaker 5: As this continues we'll be right back. Welcome back.
Speaker 2: Today, we're talking about the fighting in Goma between Rwandan
Speaker 2: backed rebels and the Congolese forces that has left many
Speaker 2: people dead.
Speaker 5: And millions more at displaced.
Speaker 2: We have Michael Kavanaugh and Simon Marx, our reporters, with us.
Speaker 2: What's been the reaction to this latest round of fighting. Michael, you,
Speaker 2: from my understanding, used to live in the DRC.
Speaker 5: You've spent a lot of time there.
Speaker 2: How does this reaction compare to what you guys have
Speaker 2: seen in the past.
Speaker 6: The last time that the M twenty three took Goma
Speaker 6: was in twenty twelve. There was an enormous international reaction,
Speaker 6: an enormous amount of pressure on Rwanda on the twenty three. Eventually,
Speaker 6: an Adventure Brigade was formed by the United Nations which
Speaker 6: went and fought the M twenty three and destroyed them,
Speaker 6: at least temporarily.
Speaker 1: This time we're not seeing yet the same amount of pressure.
Speaker 6: We're not seeing the same level of sanctions, the same
Speaker 6: level of attention.
Speaker 1: And there's no doubt that the moment when this invasion.
Speaker 6: Of Goma is happening is a particularly interesting moment because
Speaker 6: there's a change of administration in the United States. The
Speaker 6: US has been the most outspoken about Rwanda's influence on
Speaker 6: the M twenty three and its participation in this conflict.
Speaker 6: And there's also a change of course at the African
Speaker 6: Union as well in terms of the leadership. So you know,
Speaker 6: this is a moment where I think there's a lot
Speaker 6: of flux in the international community and people aren't quite
Speaker 6: sure what to do to get Rwanda to change its
Speaker 6: policy towards the M twenty three, nor to figure out
Speaker 6: how to bolster the Congolese army in a way that
Speaker 6: would allow them to fight back from the M twenty
Speaker 6: three advance. So it's a very confused, continuous situation, and
Speaker 6: countries are starting to talk about sanctions, starting to talk
Speaker 6: about other ways, other levers of pressuring Rwanda. But Rwanda
Speaker 6: has already gone through this before, and the M twenty
Speaker 6: three have gone through this before, and so they certainly
Speaker 6: if they're willing to take Goma again, they're ready to
Speaker 6: face those similar kind of consequences. And so I think
Speaker 6: that's the reason why people are so concerned that actually
Speaker 6: the endgame might be a kind of broader war and
Speaker 6: more extensive occupation of eastern Congo. Now that's a pretty
Speaker 6: extreme thing to say. We don't know that that's what's
Speaker 6: going to happen, but this is what various actors and
Speaker 6: experts are warning about.
Speaker 2: Are there other players or leaders on the continent who
Speaker 2: could make a difference though, because we've heard South African
Speaker 2: President Ramaposa has called President Kagame, would that move the
Speaker 2: needle potentially?
Speaker 3: So I think in terms of the continent's ability to
Speaker 3: ride in this, I mean we've seen the East Africa
Speaker 3: community today as we speak, holding talks in Nairobi, and
Speaker 3: the African Union has a summit next month in Addis
Speaker 3: where they have scheduled a meeting, high level meeting about
Speaker 3: this crisis. And Angola has had a very sort of
Speaker 3: key role in in mediating this crisis with its president
Speaker 3: Jo Lorenzo, and he will be taking over the presidency
Speaker 3: of the African Union. So I think these are the
Speaker 3: countries that you have to watch for and you can
Speaker 3: probably see a scenario. I know a lot of European
Speaker 3: countries are already looking at trying to back a sort
Speaker 3: of AU led peace initiative led by the Angolans on this.
Speaker 3: Whether it gains any steam, it's hard to say because
Speaker 3: the longer a ceaspire isn't agreed to, the more the
Speaker 3: potential for this thing, the spiral.
Speaker 2: Could you and peacekeepers potentially make a difference. They've been
Speaker 2: there throughout these years.
Speaker 3: The Manusco peacekeeping force in Eastern Congo has been pretty useless,
Speaker 3: to be honest, in containing this war. It's highly imp popular.
Speaker 3: It's not seen as a unit that engages when violence
Speaker 3: actually comes about. It struggled to protect communities and because
Speaker 3: of that, actually they've had a steady process of drawing
Speaker 3: down their troops from the region, not increasing them. In
Speaker 3: recent days we've seen the Blue Helmets pull back and
Speaker 3: not really get too involved in this fight, albeit some
Speaker 3: of them have lost.
Speaker 1: Their lives Michael.
Speaker 6: And the unit is there, of course to back up
Speaker 6: the Congolese army, and that's become more and more true
Speaker 6: over the years that if the Congolese army is not fighting,
Speaker 6: then the UN is not going to go out of
Speaker 6: their way to attack the rebel groups or push them back.
Speaker 6: But they do provide still really important logistics, you know,
Speaker 6: healthcare and medicine. They provide important places, you know, when
Speaker 6: these conflicts kick off, like we're seeing right now, where
Speaker 6: does everyone go the UN bases. The UN bases are
Speaker 6: full right now, they're full. They're taking more fired at,
Speaker 6: taking bullets, but they're surrendered troops, surrendered militia, you know, civilians,
Speaker 6: human rights defenders, Congolese government officials.
Speaker 1: The UN has.
Speaker 6: All been working to evacuate them, treat them.
Speaker 1: So they still play a very essential.
Speaker 6: And important role in the region if they're just not
Speaker 6: like a hot army.
Speaker 3: The risk for Polka Gami in backing the M twenty
Speaker 3: three arguably is a lot less today than what it
Speaker 3: was ten twelve years ago, the last time the M
Speaker 3: twenty three stormed into Goma. And that's because Rwanda has
Speaker 3: a much bigger role to play on the continent but
Speaker 3: also internationally with its relationships with governments across the globe.
Speaker 3: And it does this by providing large numbers of peacekeepers
Speaker 3: to various contingencies of the UN across Africa. It has
Speaker 3: its soldiers in the Central African Republic where it's supporting
Speaker 3: the government on a bilateral basis, and it's helping a
Speaker 3: lot in Mozambique to protect French LNG assets that TOTAL
Speaker 3: are interested in. And so in general, I think a
Speaker 3: lot of people view Rwando's a bit of a post
Speaker 3: genocidal success story. But when you go to the country,
Speaker 3: that's what people see first and foremost, and this is
Speaker 3: one could go with quite a lot of accolades.
Speaker 2: So then considering all of this, you guys, before we
Speaker 2: wrap up, what will determine what happens next? I mean, Michael,
Speaker 2: you were laying out how this is a changing world order,
Speaker 2: right we have a new US administration, different leaders have
Speaker 2: come into power on the continent.
Speaker 5: What's determining the outlook.
Speaker 1: The Congolese believe that the international community needs to intervene.
Speaker 6: They've asked for two emergency sessions of the Security Council
Speaker 6: to ask for sanctions, to ask for sanctions against Rwandan officials,
Speaker 6: political and military. They've asked for embargoes on the sale
Speaker 6: of Rwandan minerals and the purchase of weapons. But at
Speaker 6: the moment this has still falling on deaf ears. So
Speaker 6: if you're from the Congolese point of view, they really
Speaker 6: need international pressure on Rwanda. It's just not clear that
Speaker 6: that pressure is being mobilized right now. Without that kind
Speaker 6: of pressure, Rwanda is seems to be happy to carry
Speaker 6: on and again because they feel like they have security risks.
Speaker 6: Existential security risks. They're protecting their borders, they're protecting their country.
Speaker 6: They have seen a genocide, they have seen the effects
Speaker 6: of extreme violence as it spreads, and they're sick of
Speaker 6: the chaos on the border in eastern Congo, and so
Speaker 6: you know, they feel they're justified in what they're doing
Speaker 6: right now because of that.
Speaker 3: The big question is can you get Felix Jiessicadi and
Speaker 3: Polka Gum in a room together, And it's been a
Speaker 3: very long time since that's happened. There are attempts to
Speaker 3: and I think Ruto has attempted to do that even
Speaker 3: today in Nairobi, but it's not happened. So the longer
Speaker 3: this goes on, the higher the risk of what people call,
Speaker 3: you know, a regional conflict could occur. So you know,
Speaker 3: the head of M twenty three political wing, Colne n Anga,
Speaker 3: he's out there saying that he wants to push on
Speaker 3: even beyond so he's being very vocally bullish. This is
Speaker 3: one to watch in terms of whether this escalates way
Speaker 3: beyond the city of Goma.
Speaker 2: And you can read all of our coverage across Bloomberg platforms.
Speaker 2: Now here's some other stories we've been following across the region.
Speaker 2: This week, but Tswana's President Dumaboko, who swept to power
Speaker 2: in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond
Speaker 2: extraction and sales agreement with tbiers that will bring certainty
Speaker 2: to the gem dependent economy. The Southern African nation is
Speaker 2: the world's biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and
Speaker 2: the industry generates the bulk of its income. And former
Speaker 2: South African President Jacob Zuma's daughter will face charges related
Speaker 2: to anti government riots in the country four years ago
Speaker 2: in which three hundred and fifty four people died. And
Speaker 2: you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next
Speaker 2: African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the
Speaker 2: show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't
Speaker 2: forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually
Speaker 2: get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoga. Thanks as always for listening.
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time.