WEBVTT - Is Rwanda overstepping in Congo?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Rwandan backed rebel fighters are battling the Congolese army for

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<v Speaker 2>control over the key city of Goma. African leaders have

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<v Speaker 2>called for negotiations between Rwanda and the DRC after reports

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<v Speaker 2>of thousands of Rwandan troops entering the city alongside M

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<v Speaker 2>twenty three rebel fighters.

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<v Speaker 3>We do not see.

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<v Speaker 4>From where I said, a possibility of a military solution

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<v Speaker 4>to the challenges that faced eastern DRC. It was, it is,

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<v Speaker 4>and I'm sure it will continue to be the case

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<v Speaker 4>that engagement, dialog, consultations is the only viable way out

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<v Speaker 4>of the situation in DRC.

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<v Speaker 2>The Rwandan president again denied this was a Rwandan offensive.

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<v Speaker 5>Twenty three are not Rwandan's please.

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<v Speaker 2>On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll ask

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<v Speaker 2>what's behind this latest round of fighting in this three

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<v Speaker 2>decade long conflict and what the repercussions could be if

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<v Speaker 2>a ceasefire isn't forthcoming. I'm Jennifer's Aposaga and this is

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<v Speaker 2>the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week

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<v Speaker 2>from the continent driving the future of global growth with

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<v Speaker 2>the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week

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<v Speaker 2>are Bloomberg reporter Simon Marx and also Michael Kavanaugh, who

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<v Speaker 2>have both reported extensively throughout the region. Guys, thanks so

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<v Speaker 2>much for being here. There's so much to discuss. This

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<v Speaker 2>is obviously a fast moving situation. But Simon, maybe you

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<v Speaker 2>can start us off by giving us a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>context about who as of the people are that are

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<v Speaker 2>involved in this fighting that we should be paying close

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<v Speaker 2>attention to.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is a long running conflict. It's been going

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<v Speaker 3>on for many years in eastern Congo, and it's extensively

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<v Speaker 3>between two groups. It's the CONGLESE Army and also the

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<v Speaker 3>M twenty three rebel group, which is largely drawn from

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<v Speaker 3>Congolese communities of Rwandan origin. It's a very well organized

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<v Speaker 3>rebel group that you and experts and many observers of

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<v Speaker 3>what's happening in eastern DRC say are backed heavily by

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<v Speaker 3>the Rwandan state. Why Rwanda, Well, that's because Rwando are

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<v Speaker 3>keen to see the Congles of Tutsi origin protected and

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<v Speaker 3>their rights protected. They've had a long standing belief that

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<v Speaker 3>Tutsis in this region have been discriminated against and their

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<v Speaker 3>rights have not been upheld. This is really the origin

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<v Speaker 3>of this year's long conflict that now exploded into the

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<v Speaker 3>streets of Goma. Well, M twenty three have come in

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<v Speaker 3>and seized large portions of the city, and.

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<v Speaker 2>From my understanding, much of M twenty three is made

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<v Speaker 2>up of those with Tutsi origin.

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<v Speaker 5>Michael, is that fair to say?

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<v Speaker 6>It's fair to say, you know, the Tutsis and Hutusa

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<v Speaker 6>found in a lot of the countries around the region,

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<v Speaker 6>specifically in Rwanda, of course, but there are also in

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<v Speaker 6>Uganda and Burundi, in particular in Urundi and then in

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<v Speaker 6>eastern Congo as well. And throughout history there have been

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<v Speaker 6>movements of this population throughout the region for various reasons,

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<v Speaker 6>colonial reasons, economic reasons, and reasons of violence, because there

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<v Speaker 6>has been tension over the years between the two communities

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<v Speaker 6>that the Hutus and the Tutsis, and you know, the

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<v Speaker 6>most famous one of course for us in our lifetimes

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<v Speaker 6>or many of our lifetimes. So there are in nineteen

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<v Speaker 6>ninety four Rwandan genocide which killed probably you know, between

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<v Speaker 6>eight hundred thousand and a million, mostly Tutsis but also

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<v Speaker 6>moderate Hutus during that time, and that's really the impetus

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<v Speaker 6>for the current conflict. All these years later because after

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<v Speaker 6>the genocide, Rwandan mainly Twozi led rebel movement pushed the

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<v Speaker 6>Hutu movement out that had the government that had killed

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<v Speaker 6>all the Chutsis and Rwanda pushed them into Congo, and

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<v Speaker 6>then a war broke out in Congo. The Congolese government

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<v Speaker 6>was oversthrown. But we've seen sort of the embers of

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<v Speaker 6>this war still burning and the embers of the genocide

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<v Speaker 6>still burning in eastern Congo and throughout the country ever since.

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<v Speaker 2>And you mentioned, of course this has been going on

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<v Speaker 2>for several decades. Maybe you can contextualize what the current

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<v Speaker 2>conflict though, is over. Is it still dating back to

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of these tribal issues that we saw, and

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<v Speaker 2>why is it concentrated in Goma Michael.

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<v Speaker 6>It's still related in part to what happened all the

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<v Speaker 6>way back then. These communities still exist and there is

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<v Speaker 6>a rebel group known as the FDLR, the Democratic Forces

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<v Speaker 6>for the Liberation of Rwanda, whose origins are found in

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<v Speaker 6>the perpetrators of the genocide. Though there are probably almost

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<v Speaker 6>no people who've perpetrated genocides still among this group, they

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<v Speaker 6>still the n per want and government thinks that they

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<v Speaker 6>promote this genocidal ideology, and they believe they're.

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<v Speaker 1>An existential threat to the country.

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<v Speaker 6>They believe that genocidal ideology is a threat to Rwanda

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<v Speaker 6>entirely and they need to completely stamp it out. At

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<v Speaker 6>the same time, Eastern Congo is a place where rebel

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<v Speaker 6>groups thrive.

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<v Speaker 1>They're probably more than one hundred that are there. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a chaotic place.

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<v Speaker 6>There are rebels that oppose the governments of Uganda, of Rwanda,

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<v Speaker 6>of Burundi. It's a place where there are many small

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<v Speaker 6>rebel groups that protect local communities. There are ethnic issues,

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<v Speaker 6>there are land issues, and of course there are economic

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<v Speaker 6>issues as well, because Eastern Congo is extremely rich in

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<v Speaker 6>natural resources. The land is fertile, the land is full

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<v Speaker 6>of minerals. It's the most important place in the world

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<v Speaker 6>for a mineral and are called coltan, which is in

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<v Speaker 6>just about all of your mobile phones and all of

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<v Speaker 6>your laptops. And there's tin ore, there's gold, and especially

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<v Speaker 6>in the last few years with the rise in the

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<v Speaker 6>price of gold and some of the other minerals located there,

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<v Speaker 6>we're seeing a real update take in conflict linked to

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<v Speaker 6>the exploitation of minerals, which are then smuggled through neighboring countries,

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<v Speaker 6>enriching armed groups, enriching certain communities, enriching Congo's neighbors, but

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<v Speaker 6>not enriching the Congolese. And so this has become a

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<v Speaker 6>massive flashpoint between local communities and between the regional nations

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<v Speaker 6>there who are all benefiting in some way from Eastern

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<v Speaker 6>Congo's resources. But it's resulting in pretty serious conflict and

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<v Speaker 6>that ends up in Goma. Goma is really the focal

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<v Speaker 6>point because it's the main trading hub. It's right on

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<v Speaker 6>the border with Rwanda, near lakes, It's near lots of

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<v Speaker 6>different ways where you can sort of transport various natural

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<v Speaker 6>resources to both sides, and so Goma has become the

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<v Speaker 6>focal point. It's also where the UN is based and

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<v Speaker 6>where most NGOs are based.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've heard President Kagame of Rwanda deny that Rwanda

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<v Speaker 2>has any involvement.

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<v Speaker 5>Is he still standing by that right now? Simon?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, what are we hearing from Rwanda especially about

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<v Speaker 2>this current conflict because it is getting international attention.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, President off Rwanda has been quite coy about this

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<v Speaker 3>issue for a long time. For many years, he outright

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<v Speaker 3>denied any involvement or links to the m twenty three

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<v Speaker 3>rebel group. But in recent years, UN experts have done

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of probing on this issue and have found

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<v Speaker 3>lots of material evidence of Rwandan troops based inside Congo

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<v Speaker 3>and also weapons acquired by the Rwandan army also appearing

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<v Speaker 3>on the battlefield. So it's become very hard for Porlka

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<v Speaker 3>Garmi to continue with this outright denial, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>more recently it's fair to say he's become let's say,

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<v Speaker 3>a bit more philosophical about Rwanda's position on this. He

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<v Speaker 3>often talks about the importance of protecting Congolese communities of

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<v Speaker 3>Tutsi origin in the country. He often talks about the

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<v Speaker 3>need to eradicate the FDLR group, which Michael just mentioned.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's clear Rwanda has a very strong ideological stance

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<v Speaker 3>in this conflict, but there are many who think that

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<v Speaker 3>it goes way beyond that. It's also a quest for

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<v Speaker 3>ownership of the land of the economic riches in this

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<v Speaker 3>area that Rwanda benefits from.

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<v Speaker 2>Stick with us, Simon and Michael when we come back,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to talk a little bit more about the

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<v Speaker 2>international reaction and what impact it could have on the

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<v Speaker 2>wider region.

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<v Speaker 5>As this continues we'll be right back. Welcome back.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, we're talking about the fighting in Goma between Rwandan

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<v Speaker 2>backed rebels and the Congolese forces that has left many

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<v Speaker 2>people dead.

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<v Speaker 5>And millions more at displaced.

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<v Speaker 2>We have Michael Kavanaugh and Simon Marx, our reporters, with us.

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<v Speaker 2>What's been the reaction to this latest round of fighting. Michael, you,

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<v Speaker 2>from my understanding, used to live in the DRC.

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<v Speaker 5>You've spent a lot of time there.

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<v Speaker 2>How does this reaction compare to what you guys have

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<v Speaker 2>seen in the past.

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<v Speaker 6>The last time that the M twenty three took Goma

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<v Speaker 6>was in twenty twelve. There was an enormous international reaction,

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<v Speaker 6>an enormous amount of pressure on Rwanda on the twenty three. Eventually,

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<v Speaker 6>an Adventure Brigade was formed by the United Nations which

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<v Speaker 6>went and fought the M twenty three and destroyed them,

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<v Speaker 6>at least temporarily.

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<v Speaker 1>This time we're not seeing yet the same amount of pressure.

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<v Speaker 6>We're not seeing the same level of sanctions, the same

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<v Speaker 6>level of attention.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's no doubt that the moment when this invasion.

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<v Speaker 6>Of Goma is happening is a particularly interesting moment because

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<v Speaker 6>there's a change of administration in the United States. The

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<v Speaker 6>US has been the most outspoken about Rwanda's influence on

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<v Speaker 6>the M twenty three and its participation in this conflict.

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<v Speaker 6>And there's also a change of course at the African

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<v Speaker 6>Union as well in terms of the leadership. So you know,

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<v Speaker 6>this is a moment where I think there's a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of flux in the international community and people aren't quite

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<v Speaker 6>sure what to do to get Rwanda to change its

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<v Speaker 6>policy towards the M twenty three, nor to figure out

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<v Speaker 6>how to bolster the Congolese army in a way that

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<v Speaker 6>would allow them to fight back from the M twenty

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<v Speaker 6>three advance. So it's a very confused, continuous situation, and

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<v Speaker 6>countries are starting to talk about sanctions, starting to talk

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<v Speaker 6>about other ways, other levers of pressuring Rwanda. But Rwanda

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<v Speaker 6>has already gone through this before, and the M twenty

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<v Speaker 6>three have gone through this before, and so they certainly

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<v Speaker 6>if they're willing to take Goma again, they're ready to

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<v Speaker 6>face those similar kind of consequences. And so I think

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<v Speaker 6>that's the reason why people are so concerned that actually

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<v Speaker 6>the endgame might be a kind of broader war and

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<v Speaker 6>more extensive occupation of eastern Congo. Now that's a pretty

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<v Speaker 6>extreme thing to say. We don't know that that's what's

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<v Speaker 6>going to happen, but this is what various actors and

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<v Speaker 6>experts are warning about.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there other players or leaders on the continent who

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<v Speaker 2>could make a difference though, because we've heard South African

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<v Speaker 2>President Ramaposa has called President Kagame, would that move the

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<v Speaker 2>needle potentially?

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<v Speaker 3>So I think in terms of the continent's ability to

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<v Speaker 3>ride in this, I mean we've seen the East Africa

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<v Speaker 3>community today as we speak, holding talks in Nairobi, and

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<v Speaker 3>the African Union has a summit next month in Addis

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<v Speaker 3>where they have scheduled a meeting, high level meeting about

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<v Speaker 3>this crisis. And Angola has had a very sort of

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<v Speaker 3>key role in in mediating this crisis with its president

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<v Speaker 3>Jo Lorenzo, and he will be taking over the presidency

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<v Speaker 3>of the African Union. So I think these are the

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<v Speaker 3>countries that you have to watch for and you can

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<v Speaker 3>probably see a scenario. I know a lot of European

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<v Speaker 3>countries are already looking at trying to back a sort

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<v Speaker 3>of AU led peace initiative led by the Angolans on this.

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<v Speaker 3>Whether it gains any steam, it's hard to say because

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<v Speaker 3>the longer a ceaspire isn't agreed to, the more the

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<v Speaker 3>potential for this thing, the spiral.

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<v Speaker 2>Could you and peacekeepers potentially make a difference. They've been

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<v Speaker 2>there throughout these years.

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<v Speaker 3>The Manusco peacekeeping force in Eastern Congo has been pretty useless,

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<v Speaker 3>to be honest, in containing this war. It's highly imp popular.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not seen as a unit that engages when violence

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<v Speaker 3>actually comes about. It struggled to protect communities and because

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<v Speaker 3>of that, actually they've had a steady process of drawing

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<v Speaker 3>down their troops from the region, not increasing them. In

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<v Speaker 3>recent days we've seen the Blue Helmets pull back and

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<v Speaker 3>not really get too involved in this fight, albeit some

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<v Speaker 3>of them have lost.

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<v Speaker 1>Their lives Michael.

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<v Speaker 6>And the unit is there, of course to back up

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<v Speaker 6>the Congolese army, and that's become more and more true

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<v Speaker 6>over the years that if the Congolese army is not fighting,

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<v Speaker 6>then the UN is not going to go out of

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<v Speaker 6>their way to attack the rebel groups or push them back.

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<v Speaker 6>But they do provide still really important logistics, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>healthcare and medicine. They provide important places, you know, when

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<v Speaker 6>these conflicts kick off, like we're seeing right now, where

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<v Speaker 6>does everyone go the UN bases. The UN bases are

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 6>full right now, they're full. They're taking more fired at,

0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 6>taking bullets, but they're surrendered troops, surrendered militia, you know, civilians,

0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 6>human rights defenders, Congolese government officials.

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 1>The UN has.

0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.680
<v Speaker 6>All been working to evacuate them, treat them.

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 1>So they still play a very essential.

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 6>And important role in the region if they're just not

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:20.559
<v Speaker 6>like a hot army.

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 3>The risk for Polka Gami in backing the M twenty

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 3>three arguably is a lot less today than what it

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<v Speaker 3>was ten twelve years ago, the last time the M

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 3>twenty three stormed into Goma. And that's because Rwanda has

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 3>a much bigger role to play on the continent but

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<v Speaker 3>also internationally with its relationships with governments across the globe.

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<v Speaker 3>And it does this by providing large numbers of peacekeepers

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:50.839
<v Speaker 3>to various contingencies of the UN across Africa. It has

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.840
<v Speaker 3>its soldiers in the Central African Republic where it's supporting

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 3>the government on a bilateral basis, and it's helping a

0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 3>lot in Mozambique to protect French LNG assets that TOTAL

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 3>are interested in. And so in general, I think a

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.600
<v Speaker 3>lot of people view Rwando's a bit of a post

0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.320
<v Speaker 3>genocidal success story. But when you go to the country,

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 3>that's what people see first and foremost, and this is

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 3>one could go with quite a lot of accolades.

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 2>So then considering all of this, you guys, before we

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 2>wrap up, what will determine what happens next? I mean, Michael,

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 2>you were laying out how this is a changing world order,

0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 2>right we have a new US administration, different leaders have

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 2>come into power on the continent.

0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 5>What's determining the outlook.

0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 1>The Congolese believe that the international community needs to intervene.

0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 6>They've asked for two emergency sessions of the Security Council

0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 6>to ask for sanctions, to ask for sanctions against Rwandan officials,

0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:51.920
<v Speaker 6>political and military. They've asked for embargoes on the sale

0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 6>of Rwandan minerals and the purchase of weapons. But at

0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 6>the moment this has still falling on deaf ears. So

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 6>if you're from the Congolese point of view, they really

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 6>need international pressure on Rwanda. It's just not clear that

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 6>that pressure is being mobilized right now. Without that kind

0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 6>of pressure, Rwanda is seems to be happy to carry

0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 6>on and again because they feel like they have security risks.

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:19.560
<v Speaker 6>Existential security risks. They're protecting their borders, they're protecting their country.

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 6>They have seen a genocide, they have seen the effects

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.280
<v Speaker 6>of extreme violence as it spreads, and they're sick of

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 6>the chaos on the border in eastern Congo, and so

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 6>you know, they feel they're justified in what they're doing

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 6>right now because of that.

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.240
<v Speaker 3>The big question is can you get Felix Jiessicadi and

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.320
<v Speaker 3>Polka Gum in a room together, And it's been a

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 3>very long time since that's happened. There are attempts to

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 3>and I think Ruto has attempted to do that even

0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:47.080
<v Speaker 3>today in Nairobi, but it's not happened. So the longer

0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.680
<v Speaker 3>this goes on, the higher the risk of what people call,

0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:53.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, a regional conflict could occur. So you know,

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 3>the head of M twenty three political wing, Colne n Anga,

0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.040
<v Speaker 3>he's out there saying that he wants to push on

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 3>even beyond so he's being very vocally bullish. This is

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 3>one to watch in terms of whether this escalates way

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 3>beyond the city of Goma.

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.960
<v Speaker 2>And you can read all of our coverage across Bloomberg platforms.

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<v Speaker 2>Now here's some other stories we've been following across the region.

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<v Speaker 2>This week, but Tswana's President Dumaboko, who swept to power

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<v Speaker 2>in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 2>extraction and sales agreement with tbiers that will bring certainty

0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:33.520
<v Speaker 2>to the gem dependent economy. The Southern African nation is

0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 2>the world's biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and

0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 2>the industry generates the bulk of its income. And former

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:45.560
<v Speaker 2>South African President Jacob Zuma's daughter will face charges related

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<v Speaker 2>to anti government riots in the country four years ago

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 2>in which three hundred and fifty four people died. And

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<v Speaker 2>you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next

0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 2>African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:05.120
<v Speaker 2>show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't

0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.119
<v Speaker 2>forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually

0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:13.120
<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoga. Thanks as always for listening.

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:14.160
<v Speaker 2>We'll see you next time.