1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,879
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,400
Speaker 2: Rwandan backed rebel fighters are battling the Congolese army for

3
00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:23,959
Speaker 2: control over the key city of Goma. African leaders have

4
00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:28,560
Speaker 2: called for negotiations between Rwanda and the DRC after reports

5
00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,400
Speaker 2: of thousands of Rwandan troops entering the city alongside M

6
00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:34,000
Speaker 2: twenty three rebel fighters.

7
00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,080
Speaker 3: We do not see.

8
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 4: From where I said, a possibility of a military solution

9
00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 4: to the challenges that faced eastern DRC. It was, it is,

10
00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,960
Speaker 4: and I'm sure it will continue to be the case

11
00:00:54,720 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 4: that engagement, dialog, consultations is the only viable way out

12
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:04,679
Speaker 4: of the situation in DRC.

13
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,560
Speaker 2: The Rwandan president again denied this was a Rwandan offensive.

14
00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 5: Twenty three are not Rwandan's please.

15
00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll ask

16
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,520
Speaker 2: what's behind this latest round of fighting in this three

17
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,560
Speaker 2: decade long conflict and what the repercussions could be if

18
00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 2: a ceasefire isn't forthcoming. I'm Jennifer's Aposaga and this is

19
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,319
Speaker 2: the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week

20
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 2: from the continent driving the future of global growth with

21
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 2: the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week

22
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 2: are Bloomberg reporter Simon Marx and also Michael Kavanaugh, who

23
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 2: have both reported extensively throughout the region. Guys, thanks so

24
00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,400
Speaker 2: much for being here. There's so much to discuss. This

25
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 2: is obviously a fast moving situation. But Simon, maybe you

26
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,600
Speaker 2: can start us off by giving us a bit of

27
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,600
Speaker 2: context about who as of the people are that are

28
00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,080
Speaker 2: involved in this fighting that we should be paying close

29
00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:04,640
Speaker 2: attention to.

30
00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 3: So this is a long running conflict. It's been going

31
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,799
Speaker 3: on for many years in eastern Congo, and it's extensively

32
00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 3: between two groups. It's the CONGLESE Army and also the

33
00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 3: M twenty three rebel group, which is largely drawn from

34
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:26,280
Speaker 3: Congolese communities of Rwandan origin. It's a very well organized

35
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 3: rebel group that you and experts and many observers of

36
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 3: what's happening in eastern DRC say are backed heavily by

37
00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:39,560
Speaker 3: the Rwandan state. Why Rwanda, Well, that's because Rwando are

38
00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:43,800
Speaker 3: keen to see the Congles of Tutsi origin protected and

39
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,960
Speaker 3: their rights protected. They've had a long standing belief that

40
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,480
Speaker 3: Tutsis in this region have been discriminated against and their

41
00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,200
Speaker 3: rights have not been upheld. This is really the origin

42
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,919
Speaker 3: of this year's long conflict that now exploded into the

43
00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,240
Speaker 3: streets of Goma. Well, M twenty three have come in

44
00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,760
Speaker 3: and seized large portions of the city, and.

45
00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,480
Speaker 2: From my understanding, much of M twenty three is made

46
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,240
Speaker 2: up of those with Tutsi origin.

47
00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 5: Michael, is that fair to say?

48
00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,400
Speaker 6: It's fair to say, you know, the Tutsis and Hutusa

49
00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,359
Speaker 6: found in a lot of the countries around the region,

50
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 6: specifically in Rwanda, of course, but there are also in

51
00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 6: Uganda and Burundi, in particular in Urundi and then in

52
00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,520
Speaker 6: eastern Congo as well. And throughout history there have been

53
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,400
Speaker 6: movements of this population throughout the region for various reasons,

54
00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 6: colonial reasons, economic reasons, and reasons of violence, because there

55
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,360
Speaker 6: has been tension over the years between the two communities

56
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 6: that the Hutus and the Tutsis, and you know, the

57
00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:41,480
Speaker 6: most famous one of course for us in our lifetimes

58
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,080
Speaker 6: or many of our lifetimes. So there are in nineteen

59
00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,840
Speaker 6: ninety four Rwandan genocide which killed probably you know, between

60
00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 6: eight hundred thousand and a million, mostly Tutsis but also

61
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,040
Speaker 6: moderate Hutus during that time, and that's really the impetus

62
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,160
Speaker 6: for the current conflict. All these years later because after

63
00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:03,080
Speaker 6: the genocide, Rwandan mainly Twozi led rebel movement pushed the

64
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 6: Hutu movement out that had the government that had killed

65
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 6: all the Chutsis and Rwanda pushed them into Congo, and

66
00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,480
Speaker 6: then a war broke out in Congo. The Congolese government

67
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,120
Speaker 6: was oversthrown. But we've seen sort of the embers of

68
00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 6: this war still burning and the embers of the genocide

69
00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,599
Speaker 6: still burning in eastern Congo and throughout the country ever since.

70
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 2: And you mentioned, of course this has been going on

71
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:29,200
Speaker 2: for several decades. Maybe you can contextualize what the current

72
00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,279
Speaker 2: conflict though, is over. Is it still dating back to

73
00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 2: a lot of these tribal issues that we saw, and

74
00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,000
Speaker 2: why is it concentrated in Goma Michael.

75
00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:42,120
Speaker 6: It's still related in part to what happened all the

76
00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,599
Speaker 6: way back then. These communities still exist and there is

77
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:49,200
Speaker 6: a rebel group known as the FDLR, the Democratic Forces

78
00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,400
Speaker 6: for the Liberation of Rwanda, whose origins are found in

79
00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 6: the perpetrators of the genocide. Though there are probably almost

80
00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,880
Speaker 6: no people who've perpetrated genocides still among this group, they

81
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 6: still the n per want and government thinks that they

82
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 6: promote this genocidal ideology, and they believe they're.

83
00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 1: An existential threat to the country.

84
00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:11,360
Speaker 6: They believe that genocidal ideology is a threat to Rwanda

85
00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,320
Speaker 6: entirely and they need to completely stamp it out. At

86
00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,159
Speaker 6: the same time, Eastern Congo is a place where rebel

87
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:17,839
Speaker 6: groups thrive.

88
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: They're probably more than one hundred that are there. It's

89
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:21,200
Speaker 1: a chaotic place.

90
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,039
Speaker 6: There are rebels that oppose the governments of Uganda, of Rwanda,

91
00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 6: of Burundi. It's a place where there are many small

92
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:32,160
Speaker 6: rebel groups that protect local communities. There are ethnic issues,

93
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 6: there are land issues, and of course there are economic

94
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,280
Speaker 6: issues as well, because Eastern Congo is extremely rich in

95
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 6: natural resources. The land is fertile, the land is full

96
00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,679
Speaker 6: of minerals. It's the most important place in the world

97
00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,120
Speaker 6: for a mineral and are called coltan, which is in

98
00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,279
Speaker 6: just about all of your mobile phones and all of

99
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:54,080
Speaker 6: your laptops. And there's tin ore, there's gold, and especially

100
00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,080
Speaker 6: in the last few years with the rise in the

101
00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,839
Speaker 6: price of gold and some of the other minerals located there,

102
00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:02,800
Speaker 6: we're seeing a real update take in conflict linked to

103
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,080
Speaker 6: the exploitation of minerals, which are then smuggled through neighboring countries,

104
00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:12,279
Speaker 6: enriching armed groups, enriching certain communities, enriching Congo's neighbors, but

105
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,320
Speaker 6: not enriching the Congolese. And so this has become a

106
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:20,400
Speaker 6: massive flashpoint between local communities and between the regional nations

107
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 6: there who are all benefiting in some way from Eastern

108
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 6: Congo's resources. But it's resulting in pretty serious conflict and

109
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,279
Speaker 6: that ends up in Goma. Goma is really the focal

110
00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,760
Speaker 6: point because it's the main trading hub. It's right on

111
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 6: the border with Rwanda, near lakes, It's near lots of

112
00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,440
Speaker 6: different ways where you can sort of transport various natural

113
00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,640
Speaker 6: resources to both sides, and so Goma has become the

114
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,359
Speaker 6: focal point. It's also where the UN is based and

115
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,000
Speaker 6: where most NGOs are based.

116
00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:50,120
Speaker 2: And we've heard President Kagame of Rwanda deny that Rwanda

117
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:51,120
Speaker 2: has any involvement.

118
00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,080
Speaker 5: Is he still standing by that right now? Simon?

119
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,440
Speaker 2: I mean, what are we hearing from Rwanda especially about

120
00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,120
Speaker 2: this current conflict because it is getting international attention.

121
00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:04,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, President off Rwanda has been quite coy about this

122
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 3: issue for a long time. For many years, he outright

123
00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,160
Speaker 3: denied any involvement or links to the m twenty three

124
00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,280
Speaker 3: rebel group. But in recent years, UN experts have done

125
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,440
Speaker 3: a lot of probing on this issue and have found

126
00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:22,320
Speaker 3: lots of material evidence of Rwandan troops based inside Congo

127
00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,960
Speaker 3: and also weapons acquired by the Rwandan army also appearing

128
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 3: on the battlefield. So it's become very hard for Porlka

129
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:33,440
Speaker 3: Garmi to continue with this outright denial, and I think

130
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,080
Speaker 3: more recently it's fair to say he's become let's say,

131
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 3: a bit more philosophical about Rwanda's position on this. He

132
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,720
Speaker 3: often talks about the importance of protecting Congolese communities of

133
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,640
Speaker 3: Tutsi origin in the country. He often talks about the

134
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:53,400
Speaker 3: need to eradicate the FDLR group, which Michael just mentioned.

135
00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 3: So it's clear Rwanda has a very strong ideological stance

136
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 3: in this conflict, but there are many who think that

137
00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,440
Speaker 3: it goes way beyond that. It's also a quest for

138
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,240
Speaker 3: ownership of the land of the economic riches in this

139
00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,560
Speaker 3: area that Rwanda benefits from.

140
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:13,720
Speaker 2: Stick with us, Simon and Michael when we come back,

141
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,280
Speaker 2: we're going to talk a little bit more about the

142
00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,920
Speaker 2: international reaction and what impact it could have on the

143
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:19,680
Speaker 2: wider region.

144
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:26,160
Speaker 5: As this continues we'll be right back. Welcome back.

145
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,160
Speaker 2: Today, we're talking about the fighting in Goma between Rwandan

146
00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,520
Speaker 2: backed rebels and the Congolese forces that has left many

147
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:33,280
Speaker 2: people dead.

148
00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:34,760
Speaker 5: And millions more at displaced.

149
00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,120
Speaker 2: We have Michael Kavanaugh and Simon Marx, our reporters, with us.

150
00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 2: What's been the reaction to this latest round of fighting. Michael, you,

151
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,720
Speaker 2: from my understanding, used to live in the DRC.

152
00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:47,000
Speaker 5: You've spent a lot of time there.

153
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,680
Speaker 2: How does this reaction compare to what you guys have

154
00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:50,520
Speaker 2: seen in the past.

155
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,000
Speaker 6: The last time that the M twenty three took Goma

156
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,320
Speaker 6: was in twenty twelve. There was an enormous international reaction,

157
00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 6: an enormous amount of pressure on Rwanda on the twenty three. Eventually,

158
00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,480
Speaker 6: an Adventure Brigade was formed by the United Nations which

159
00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,320
Speaker 6: went and fought the M twenty three and destroyed them,

160
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 6: at least temporarily.

161
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 1: This time we're not seeing yet the same amount of pressure.

162
00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,280
Speaker 6: We're not seeing the same level of sanctions, the same

163
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:16,080
Speaker 6: level of attention.

164
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,160
Speaker 1: And there's no doubt that the moment when this invasion.

165
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,080
Speaker 6: Of Goma is happening is a particularly interesting moment because

166
00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 6: there's a change of administration in the United States. The

167
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,319
Speaker 6: US has been the most outspoken about Rwanda's influence on

168
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,559
Speaker 6: the M twenty three and its participation in this conflict.

169
00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,120
Speaker 6: And there's also a change of course at the African

170
00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 6: Union as well in terms of the leadership. So you know,

171
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,320
Speaker 6: this is a moment where I think there's a lot

172
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,079
Speaker 6: of flux in the international community and people aren't quite

173
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:49,800
Speaker 6: sure what to do to get Rwanda to change its

174
00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,840
Speaker 6: policy towards the M twenty three, nor to figure out

175
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,480
Speaker 6: how to bolster the Congolese army in a way that

176
00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,720
Speaker 6: would allow them to fight back from the M twenty

177
00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:02,240
Speaker 6: three advance. So it's a very confused, continuous situation, and

178
00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,240
Speaker 6: countries are starting to talk about sanctions, starting to talk

179
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:09,280
Speaker 6: about other ways, other levers of pressuring Rwanda. But Rwanda

180
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,280
Speaker 6: has already gone through this before, and the M twenty

181
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,840
Speaker 6: three have gone through this before, and so they certainly

182
00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,400
Speaker 6: if they're willing to take Goma again, they're ready to

183
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,800
Speaker 6: face those similar kind of consequences. And so I think

184
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,720
Speaker 6: that's the reason why people are so concerned that actually

185
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,560
Speaker 6: the endgame might be a kind of broader war and

186
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 6: more extensive occupation of eastern Congo. Now that's a pretty

187
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,440
Speaker 6: extreme thing to say. We don't know that that's what's

188
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,400
Speaker 6: going to happen, but this is what various actors and

189
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,319
Speaker 6: experts are warning about.

190
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,040
Speaker 2: Are there other players or leaders on the continent who

191
00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,439
Speaker 2: could make a difference though, because we've heard South African

192
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 2: President Ramaposa has called President Kagame, would that move the

193
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:47,559
Speaker 2: needle potentially?

194
00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,280
Speaker 3: So I think in terms of the continent's ability to

195
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,960
Speaker 3: ride in this, I mean we've seen the East Africa

196
00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:00,280
Speaker 3: community today as we speak, holding talks in Nairobi, and

197
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 3: the African Union has a summit next month in Addis

198
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 3: where they have scheduled a meeting, high level meeting about

199
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:12,240
Speaker 3: this crisis. And Angola has had a very sort of

200
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,480
Speaker 3: key role in in mediating this crisis with its president

201
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:20,000
Speaker 3: Jo Lorenzo, and he will be taking over the presidency

202
00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,960
Speaker 3: of the African Union. So I think these are the

203
00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,319
Speaker 3: countries that you have to watch for and you can

204
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,079
Speaker 3: probably see a scenario. I know a lot of European

205
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 3: countries are already looking at trying to back a sort

206
00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:37,079
Speaker 3: of AU led peace initiative led by the Angolans on this.

207
00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 3: Whether it gains any steam, it's hard to say because

208
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,080
Speaker 3: the longer a ceaspire isn't agreed to, the more the

209
00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,120
Speaker 3: potential for this thing, the spiral.

210
00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,439
Speaker 2: Could you and peacekeepers potentially make a difference. They've been

211
00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,080
Speaker 2: there throughout these years.

212
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:57,079
Speaker 3: The Manusco peacekeeping force in Eastern Congo has been pretty useless,

213
00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 3: to be honest, in containing this war. It's highly imp popular.

214
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,559
Speaker 3: It's not seen as a unit that engages when violence

215
00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:11,480
Speaker 3: actually comes about. It struggled to protect communities and because

216
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,120
Speaker 3: of that, actually they've had a steady process of drawing

217
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,720
Speaker 3: down their troops from the region, not increasing them. In

218
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,400
Speaker 3: recent days we've seen the Blue Helmets pull back and

219
00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,360
Speaker 3: not really get too involved in this fight, albeit some

220
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:26,360
Speaker 3: of them have lost.

221
00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:27,440
Speaker 1: Their lives Michael.

222
00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 6: And the unit is there, of course to back up

223
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,400
Speaker 6: the Congolese army, and that's become more and more true

224
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,440
Speaker 6: over the years that if the Congolese army is not fighting,

225
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 6: then the UN is not going to go out of

226
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 6: their way to attack the rebel groups or push them back.

227
00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,559
Speaker 6: But they do provide still really important logistics, you know,

228
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 6: healthcare and medicine. They provide important places, you know, when

229
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,360
Speaker 6: these conflicts kick off, like we're seeing right now, where

230
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,240
Speaker 6: does everyone go the UN bases. The UN bases are

231
00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,600
Speaker 6: full right now, they're full. They're taking more fired at,

232
00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:06,120
Speaker 6: taking bullets, but they're surrendered troops, surrendered militia, you know, civilians,

233
00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 6: human rights defenders, Congolese government officials.

234
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:10,640
Speaker 1: The UN has.

235
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,680
Speaker 6: All been working to evacuate them, treat them.

236
00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,280
Speaker 1: So they still play a very essential.

237
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:19,320
Speaker 6: And important role in the region if they're just not

238
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:20,559
Speaker 6: like a hot army.

239
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 3: The risk for Polka Gami in backing the M twenty

240
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:27,040
Speaker 3: three arguably is a lot less today than what it

241
00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 3: was ten twelve years ago, the last time the M

242
00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:34,400
Speaker 3: twenty three stormed into Goma. And that's because Rwanda has

243
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,280
Speaker 3: a much bigger role to play on the continent but

244
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:41,080
Speaker 3: also internationally with its relationships with governments across the globe.

245
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 3: And it does this by providing large numbers of peacekeepers

246
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:50,839
Speaker 3: to various contingencies of the UN across Africa. It has

247
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,840
Speaker 3: its soldiers in the Central African Republic where it's supporting

248
00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,200
Speaker 3: the government on a bilateral basis, and it's helping a

249
00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:02,400
Speaker 3: lot in Mozambique to protect French LNG assets that TOTAL

250
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:06,000
Speaker 3: are interested in. And so in general, I think a

251
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,600
Speaker 3: lot of people view Rwando's a bit of a post

252
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,320
Speaker 3: genocidal success story. But when you go to the country,

253
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,960
Speaker 3: that's what people see first and foremost, and this is

254
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 3: one could go with quite a lot of accolades.

255
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 2: So then considering all of this, you guys, before we

256
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,920
Speaker 2: wrap up, what will determine what happens next? I mean, Michael,

257
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,560
Speaker 2: you were laying out how this is a changing world order,

258
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 2: right we have a new US administration, different leaders have

259
00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,080
Speaker 2: come into power on the continent.

260
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 5: What's determining the outlook.

261
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 1: The Congolese believe that the international community needs to intervene.

262
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 6: They've asked for two emergency sessions of the Security Council

263
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,920
Speaker 6: to ask for sanctions, to ask for sanctions against Rwandan officials,

264
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 6: political and military. They've asked for embargoes on the sale

265
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 6: of Rwandan minerals and the purchase of weapons. But at

266
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 6: the moment this has still falling on deaf ears. So

267
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,760
Speaker 6: if you're from the Congolese point of view, they really

268
00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 6: need international pressure on Rwanda. It's just not clear that

269
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 6: that pressure is being mobilized right now. Without that kind

270
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,560
Speaker 6: of pressure, Rwanda is seems to be happy to carry

271
00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 6: on and again because they feel like they have security risks.

272
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 6: Existential security risks. They're protecting their borders, they're protecting their country.

273
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 6: They have seen a genocide, they have seen the effects

274
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,280
Speaker 6: of extreme violence as it spreads, and they're sick of

275
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 6: the chaos on the border in eastern Congo, and so

276
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,000
Speaker 6: you know, they feel they're justified in what they're doing

277
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 6: right now because of that.

278
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 3: The big question is can you get Felix Jiessicadi and

279
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 3: Polka Gum in a room together, And it's been a

280
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 3: very long time since that's happened. There are attempts to

281
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 3: and I think Ruto has attempted to do that even

282
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 3: today in Nairobi, but it's not happened. So the longer

283
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,680
Speaker 3: this goes on, the higher the risk of what people call,

284
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 3: you know, a regional conflict could occur. So you know,

285
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 3: the head of M twenty three political wing, Colne n Anga,

286
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 3: he's out there saying that he wants to push on

287
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 3: even beyond so he's being very vocally bullish. This is

288
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 3: one to watch in terms of whether this escalates way

289
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 3: beyond the city of Goma.

290
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 2: And you can read all of our coverage across Bloomberg platforms.

291
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:17,160
Speaker 2: Now here's some other stories we've been following across the region.

292
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: This week, but Tswana's President Dumaboko, who swept to power

293
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 2: in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond

294
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 2: extraction and sales agreement with tbiers that will bring certainty

295
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,520
Speaker 2: to the gem dependent economy. The Southern African nation is

296
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 2: the world's biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and

297
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 2: the industry generates the bulk of its income. And former

298
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 2: South African President Jacob Zuma's daughter will face charges related

299
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 2: to anti government riots in the country four years ago

300
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,840
Speaker 2: in which three hundred and fifty four people died. And

301
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 2: you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next

302
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 2: African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the

303
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 2: show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't

304
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,119
Speaker 2: forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually

305
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:13,120
Speaker 2: get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoga. Thanks as always for listening.

306
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:14,160
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time.