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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us prow read enough for running again. So smoothe

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Speaker 2: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Helloy one. Welcome back to Wondergoo, the

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Speaker 1: Soccer Benning podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 1: Michael Leeba. Joining me today are co hosts and colleagues

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Speaker 1: Anthony Dedbundo and beaj A Cunningham, and together the three

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Speaker 1: of us will take you match by match through the

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Speaker 1: upcoming weekend in the Premier League. Then we'll stop off

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Speaker 1: in Germany from the Bundesliga. Do some Syria a La

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Speaker 1: Liga league. Oh, give out our three leg underdog parlay

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Speaker 1: which is checking it at right around ninety to one

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Speaker 1: this weekend, and then give us give out our best

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Speaker 1: bets in the Premier League and get out of here.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to all that, a reminder that

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Speaker 1: Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport,

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Speaker 1: osse rules. Football playoffs are in full effect, gentlemen, and

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Speaker 1: it's Melbourne and Melbourne and Carlton. This weekend is going

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Speaker 1: to be an absolute ripper its box office. So whatever

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Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. And Bet

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Speaker 1: three six y five, you must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: Ohio or Virginia. And of course, if you or anyone

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Speaker 1: you know has a gambling problem wants help, please call

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio and

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Speaker 1: Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in IOWA. Terms

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Speaker 1: and conditions apply, BJ Anthony. I think at first glance,

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Speaker 1: I thought that when we went into the international break,

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Speaker 1: I thought this weekend of Premier League I said, doesn't

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Speaker 1: really look that great from a betting perspective. And then

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Speaker 1: when I really dug into it this week, I completely

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Speaker 1: shifted that. I think it's a great, great weekend to

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Speaker 1: bet some footy here, not just Australian footy either, but

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Speaker 1: some good old fashioned soccer in the Premier League around Europe.

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Speaker 1: I will start with our headliner, that's Everton. It's a

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Speaker 1: little podcast rby SAT Sunday morning, eleven thirty am. The

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Speaker 1: topies are plus four seventy five at home Arsenals traveling

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Speaker 1: as a minus one eighty eight road favorite. That draw

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Speaker 1: is plus three fifty Anthony. I want to start with

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Speaker 1: you because your first ever bet on Everton.

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Speaker 2: I believe this is my second bet on Everton. Ever

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Speaker 2: I'm only one lifetime. I don't count any bet that

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Speaker 2: happened before this season, so therefore you know I did

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Speaker 2: bet them against Villa and lost in pretty routine fashion.

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Speaker 2: You know it was not really much of a sweat,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, look I have you know we've we've had

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Speaker 2: this conversation about Everton and what they are at this

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Speaker 2: point in the season, and the numbers are actually pretty

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Speaker 2: encouraging for Everton. Who do you think has created more

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Speaker 2: expected goals and chances this season, Michael Everton or Arsenal's.

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Speaker 1: Everdon And we've we've done it against a Murderers road too,

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Speaker 1: They've created a Murderers chances.

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Speaker 3: Let you have conceded.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, the defense. The defense isn't as bad

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Speaker 2: as as as I thought it was when we first,

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Speaker 2: like when I was digging through the numbers.

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Speaker 1: Once again, and they did it against the Murderers Rael. No,

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Speaker 1: Sheffield loves Sheffield, full of Fulham. Yeah, not like Arsenal's.

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Speaker 2: Played exactly the most difficult schedule in the world. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know, Everton has shown real life and attack and

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Speaker 2: I think they There's the chance that Jack Harrison makes

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Speaker 2: his debut this weekend for Everton, which would I think

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Speaker 2: be a significant boost, because, believe it or not, Everton

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Speaker 2: has one player who has consistently overperformed his XG from

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Speaker 2: a finishing perspective throughout his career, and his name is

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Speaker 2: Jack Harrison. Twenty one of goals from fifteen expected and

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Speaker 2: he's beaten the numbers every year. It leads a Leeds

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Speaker 2: team that perennially underperformed their numbers and got them relegated.

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Speaker 2: Also might have dcl wearing a face mask, which which

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Speaker 2: would be very intimidating for the Arsenal back line.

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Speaker 1: Adjust your number. Any times a.

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Speaker 2: Striker and Hauld play at least a half here does

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Speaker 2: help Everton. I mean he's the main target on crosses

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Speaker 2: and when he's been on the pitch, you know, it

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Speaker 2: hasn't been very often, but when he's been on the

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Speaker 2: pitch he's been a good striker and getting about a

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Speaker 2: half expected goal per ninety So calverd Lewin and Harrison

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Speaker 2: you know, helped maybe improve this finishing because I mean

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Speaker 2: it looks like a time if they're trying not to

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Speaker 2: score when they play, and I know Michael's bet them

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Speaker 2: every week. And I've tried to pick my spots a

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Speaker 2: little bit with this team because I really don't trust them.

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Speaker 2: But at home off of a break against an Arsenal

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Speaker 2: team that I think is overvalued is a perfect spot

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Speaker 2: for me. Look, Arsenal has not done a great job

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Speaker 2: of creating high quality chances. They had just three shots

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Speaker 2: with an expected goals a point one or higher against

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Speaker 2: United until the Jayzus breakaway, which dramatically inflated their numbers.

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Speaker 2: If you look at you know, their you know game

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Speaker 2: state when it was zero zero or one to one

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Speaker 2: prior to going up to one and then the game

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Speaker 2: got haywire late, they weren't not all that much better

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Speaker 2: than Man United at home, and of course they were

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Speaker 2: good and build up and they weren't you know, necessarily

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Speaker 2: giving up possession. But United was also very comfortable defensively

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Speaker 2: for large stretches of that match where they didn't look

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Speaker 2: like they were about to get broken down. It was

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Speaker 2: not like last year's fixture, for example, when United was

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Speaker 2: kind of defending for their lives the entirety of the match.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's some real question marks about what

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Speaker 2: Arsenal's attack is right now. And I think you're seeing

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Speaker 2: that this is a team last year that got really

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Speaker 2: good finishing numbers from their big three Socca, martin Elli

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Speaker 2: and Odegard and if those guys we regressed from a

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Speaker 2: finishing perspective, the underlying quality just isn't quite there to

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Speaker 2: overwhelm these teams. So for them to be you know

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Speaker 2: over minus one on the road minus two hundred money

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Speaker 2: lined on the road against Everton. I think it's a

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Speaker 2: little bit high. And so I'm gonna bet the Toffees

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Speaker 2: catching the goal at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't even need to say it, but I'll

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Speaker 1: be sprinkling the the money line here. I just I

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Speaker 1: think everyting can get on the board. It's at home.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's got the Champions League to kind of worry about.

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Speaker 1: It's a Sunday cake off too, so you know, just

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Speaker 1: a few days they played PSV first, right, so it's

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Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a late Yeah, played.

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Speaker 3: Everybody else on Saturday. When we get Sunday, yeah, lovely.

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Speaker 1: It's a it's a little bit of a tricky spot,

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Speaker 1: I think coming back from an international break. And even

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Speaker 1: if Calvert Lewin doesn't play, Uh, Beto looked great mm

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Speaker 1: hmm against Sheffield United. So uh, they're just they're dangerous.

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Speaker 1: But you just you just never know what team Everden's

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Speaker 1: going to play for, if that makes sense. Are they

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Speaker 1: going to play for evidence or are they going to

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Speaker 1: try to play against themselves. It's it's maddening to watch. Uh,

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Speaker 1: don't trust, don't trust them as far as I can

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Speaker 1: throw them. But at these numbers it's fine. And the

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Speaker 1: one thing that does give me some pause here is

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Speaker 1: is we've kind of joked about it, but the schedule

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Speaker 1: they face has been Cheeks, uh Wolves and Sheffield United

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Speaker 1: and Fulham and the one team that they they played

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Speaker 1: that has like any sort of top six aspirations sen

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Speaker 1: Villa like, so the only team that they played where

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Speaker 1: the other team's going to try to dominate the game

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Speaker 1: and be on the front foot, they just couldn't even cope,

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Speaker 1: which is a little frightening. So I get to I

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Speaker 1: get if people would be a little nervous to back

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Speaker 1: to Toffees here, but that's why the number is good.

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Speaker 1: And uh, you know, those are kind of the bets

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Speaker 1: that often, more often than not, are going to lead

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Speaker 1: to value here. So uh, I'll be on the I'll

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Speaker 1: be on the money line, uh BJ And you're also

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Speaker 1: backing some chaos here.

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Speaker 3: I am, and I like both teams of score I

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Speaker 3: minus one thirty five. The thing with Everton, and if

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Speaker 3: you want, I mean obviously Michael, you've watched every single

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Speaker 3: Everton match, is the way they create their chances, which

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Speaker 3: is not a surprise. Under Sean deitsch is via crosses.

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Speaker 3: They have attempted ninety five crosses so far this Premier

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Speaker 3: League season, that is second most behind only Chelsea and

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Speaker 3: like Anthony mentioned, sixth and non penalty expected goals. So

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Speaker 3: they have created a lot of chances. And where I

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Speaker 3: think they can be effective with our against Arsenal is

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Speaker 3: via cross is and winning those aerial duels. Because as

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Speaker 3: of right now we're taping this, Gabrielle is questionable play

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Speaker 3: and him being out is massive in a match like

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Speaker 3: this because he is Arsenal's main aerial threat, both defensively

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Speaker 3: and offensively on set pieces. Last season he had one

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Speaker 3: hundred aerial dual wins and a fifty four percent a

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Speaker 3: dual win percentage. The next closest for Arsenal was Saliba

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Speaker 3: with fifty four aerial duels one So he is massive

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Speaker 3: when you have to face a team like Everton who's

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Speaker 3: going to cross the ball that many times and put

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Speaker 3: a big time value on scoring off with set pieces.

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Speaker 3: But here's the one pause that if I were somebody

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Speaker 3: who wanted to back Everton is Yes, if you look

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Speaker 3: into Everton's high pressing numbers, they are really really good.

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Speaker 3: I believe they're third so far in the Premier League,

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Speaker 3: but their thirteenth and passes per defensive action and fourteenth

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Speaker 3: and build up completion percentage allowed, So that tells me

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Speaker 3: that yes they have forced some high turnovers, but more

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Speaker 3: often than not teams are beating that first line of

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Speaker 3: the press and then there's just acres of space to operate,

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Speaker 3: which since they've had hadn't really played a murder's role. Well,

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Speaker 3: it's the best team they've played Villa, who is a

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Speaker 3: build up team just like Arsenal, and they ripped him apart.

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Speaker 3: So and even if you go back to last season,

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Speaker 3: Everton did beat Arsenal in this matchup at Goodison Park

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Speaker 3: and it was if you remember it was shot nically

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Speaker 3: first match in charge, Everton came out and what we

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Speaker 3: thought they were going to be was Sean dychis Burnley,

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Speaker 3: which is four four to two mid block and kind

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Speaker 3: of sit back, but no, he came out and pressed

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Speaker 3: Arsenal and threw Arsenal for loop and they won the

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Speaker 3: match because of it. But then what happened less than

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Speaker 3: a month later at the Emirates. Arsenal knew that was

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Speaker 3: going to happen and they absolutely ripped them apart and

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Speaker 3: beat them for nothing. So that's the other end of

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Speaker 3: the spectrum on this. So for me, if Gabrielle is out,

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Speaker 3: it's I think it's going to be a massive loss

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Speaker 3: for Arsenal defensively, and that gives Everton a good shot

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Speaker 3: to score here. Obviously they are due for some positive

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Speaker 3: aggression because of how many chances they've created and only

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Speaker 3: scored twice. So I projected both team to score at

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty five. So minus one thirty five is

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Speaker 3: too good of a price for me to pass up.

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Speaker 1: Great, it should be fun Sunday at eleven thirty Saturday morning,

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Speaker 1: now Wolves and Liverpool Wolverhampton seven to one at home

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Speaker 1: at Liverpool traveling at minus two fifty in the dress

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Speaker 1: plus three seventy five. I'm passing here. What I know,

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Speaker 1: it's landing that this isn't Michael Leaboff specially Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: know it's it's tempting, but there's you'll see as we

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Speaker 1: get through this show, like there's just too many other

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Speaker 1: cans and I can't just like it'd be like a

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Speaker 1: ten team money line underdog round robin for me this

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Speaker 1: week if I really wanted to get into it. But

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Speaker 1: I'll be passing, what do you got BJ, I like.

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Speaker 3: Over three and a half at plus one twenty or

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Speaker 3: excuse me, plus one thirty. Given what we've seen from

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Speaker 3: Wolves so far this season, they're kind of playing the

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Speaker 3: same way that they played under low Pata and Bruno Lage,

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Speaker 3: but it's with a lot more intensity and a lot

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Speaker 3: more purpose going forward. They're not just putting a value

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Speaker 3: on defensive possession, playing slow build up. They're actually trying

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Speaker 3: once they beat the first tune of the press to

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Speaker 3: get things going in quick transitions, which is kind of

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Speaker 3: what you saw with Gary O'Neill at Bourne. Meuth and speaking.

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Speaker 3: Wolves have completed the most crosses of anybody in the

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Speaker 3: Premier League into the opponent's penalty area. So that's going

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Speaker 3: back to the Julian lopetagy in Bruno Lodge days, except

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Speaker 3: you know, Wolves they're interesting because yes, they've the only

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Speaker 3: match they've wanted to get is against Everton. But I

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Speaker 3: really don't think they've played that bad this season, and

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Speaker 3: I don't think they're bad overall, and I think Gary

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Speaker 3: Olnwlaw has done a fantastic job actually instilling belief into

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Speaker 3: a squad coming into the season. Looked deater than dead

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Speaker 3: in turn and goes headed for relegation. But so far,

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Speaker 3: with the collection of players that they have, they have

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Speaker 3: played very very well. They've created a ton of chances,

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Speaker 3: but defensively they've been very very bad. So now they're

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Speaker 3: obviously taking on a Liverpool team that if they want

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Speaker 3: to try to build out of the back, which you

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Speaker 3: saw both against Crystal Palace against Brighton, doesn't really work

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Speaker 3: when you face good, high pressing teams and they will

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Speaker 3: just turn you over repeatedly and get great chances on net.

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Speaker 3: And I believe that's what's going to happen here for Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: You know, even though aston Villa didn't create a ton

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Speaker 3: against Liverpool, they had moments going for forward. Liverpool, I

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Speaker 3: don't think it still has a true number six ball

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Speaker 3: stopper in the middle of the pitch, and Liverpool is

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Speaker 3: dealing with a lot of injuries along their back line.

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Speaker 3: Coulnante is questionable, Van Dyke's going to be out, Alexander

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Speaker 3: Arnold it looks like, is doubtful for this match as well,

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Speaker 3: So now it's going to be the mattive Joe Gomez

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Speaker 3: back line, which you know is a downgrade for Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: So Wolves has created a time chances so far this season,

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Speaker 3: so I think that they will have moments in this

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Speaker 3: match to potentially get in on Liverpool's net. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Allison is once again having just an unreal shot stopping season.

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Speaker 3: Just seems like he'll never ever regress. But I think

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Speaker 3: this has the potential, especially you know with Wolves when

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Speaker 3: they fall behind, things tend to get a little chaotic

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Speaker 3: with them. So over three and a half projected right

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Speaker 3: on about three and a half goals, So over three

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Speaker 3: and a half plus one thirty is a good enough.

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Speaker 1: Price for me. I guess, not recency buyas, but just

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Speaker 1: like certain things, embedding to stick in your mind and

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Speaker 1: for some reason, anytime I try to think about Wolves

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Speaker 1: in Liverpool, the game from two seasons ago comes like

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Speaker 1: the last match day of the season where early yeah, oh,

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Speaker 1: it just always comes to my mind and I just

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Speaker 1: expect every Liverpool Wolves match to be like that. And Anthony,

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Speaker 1: you're kind of thinking that here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, you know, it's not that long ago

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Speaker 2: that match was. And remember we were getting like Wolves

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Speaker 2: team total for the match at like plus one to

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Speaker 2: ten and that was the top of the Liverpool defensive

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Speaker 2: mountain and they've they've kind of slid down the mountain

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Speaker 2: ever since. And look, they're the numbers are a little

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Speaker 2: skewed because they've played a couple of games now down

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Speaker 2: a man for large stretches, the Newcastle game and the

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Speaker 2: Bournemouth game, so it does certainly skew the numbers. But

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Speaker 2: what we have so far on this Liverpool team is

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Speaker 2: actually worse defensively than last year. Not from an expected

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Speaker 2: goals perspective, because they've been very good in defending their

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Speaker 2: penalty area. They've only conceded a couple of big scoring chances,

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Speaker 2: so they've been better with that, but the rest of

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Speaker 2: the profile it starts in the midfield is actually worse.

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Speaker 2: Box entries allowed, final entry, third entries allowed. When we

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Speaker 2: look at you know, progressive passes allowed, ability to turn

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Speaker 2: teams over high, all of those numbers are worse than

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Speaker 2: last season. So you know, the fact they haven't conceded

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Speaker 2: a ton of chances and a ton of goals yet

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Speaker 2: it is fine and all and well for them, but

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Speaker 2: I think there's real regression here for this defense. I

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Speaker 2: don't think they're as good as they've played at various

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Speaker 2: parts of the last four games. And you mentioned it.

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Speaker 2: Bj van Dyck is gonna get suspended here, so he's

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Speaker 2: definitely out and Kanante may also be out.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It didn't matter against Villa. Villa put in a really

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Speaker 2: poor performance, wasn't able to you know, really pressure this

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Speaker 2: Liverpool defense particularly often. They had one big chance that

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Speaker 2: was about it. But you mentioned it with Wolves last

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Speaker 2: year they were bottom five and high turnovers forced. They

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Speaker 2: were not a team that wanted to press you and

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Speaker 2: get in transition. They wanted to slow the match down,

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Speaker 2: play out long possessions. This Wolves team is very different.

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Speaker 2: Their top five in high turnovers forced and so this

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Speaker 2: is a team that's you know, going to get up

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Speaker 2: into a little bit, turn you over and then run

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Speaker 2: and they have the talent to do it. And look,

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Speaker 2: their attacking numbers have been okay, they haven't been great,

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Speaker 2: you know, they're they're kind of buoyed with their expected

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Speaker 2: goals numbers by a lot of big scoring chances created.

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Speaker 2: Went down a bunch of goals already, you know, the

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Speaker 2: United match and the Brighton match come to mind. But

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Speaker 2: the underlying profile isn't all that bad. And they have

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Speaker 2: been pretty effective at getting the ball into the opponent's Penaltaria.

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Speaker 2: They don't have the great quality in the area, which

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Speaker 2: has always been their problem. They don't finish chances, they

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Speaker 2: don't create a lot of big ones, generally because of

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Speaker 2: the lack of true talent. But again against his Liverpool defense,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna take risks. I think there's gonna be an opening.

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Speaker 2: So I like Wolves team total over in the first

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Speaker 2: half plus one sixty. I think they can come out

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Speaker 2: and surprise them early. We've seen Liverpool get surprised early

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Speaker 2: and just about every game this season except for Villa,

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Speaker 2: so you know, I think they're vulnerable and I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take Wolves to score in the first half.

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Speaker 1: It's funny Liverpool in their salad days puts such an

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Speaker 1: emphasis on those first like ten twelve minutes, like coming

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Speaker 1: out and storming teams, and that's kind of been the

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Speaker 1: opposite this season. Speaking of Villa, they are odds on

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Speaker 1: at home against Pallas minus won ten. The Eagles come

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Speaker 1: in three to one and the Dras plus two sixty.

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Speaker 1: I like Palace here. This defense has just been really

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Speaker 1: good and Roy Hodgson like it's it's kind of to

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Speaker 1: make fun of make fun of him, but he's just

347
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Speaker 1: got this team playing great defense, and even under Vieira

348
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Speaker 1: like this, this generation of Crystal Palace, it just has

349
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Speaker 1: been good defensively for the better part of three four

350
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Speaker 1: seasons now and that makes them live. I think at

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Speaker 1: spots like this.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think three to one on the road is fine

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Speaker 1: against a team like Villa that AFST ninth best team

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League right now. I think Palace is

356
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Speaker 1: twelfth or thirteenth, like, it's not that wide of a gap, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, if you're coming with me here, yeah.

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Speaker 2: I'm not. You know, Palace could win against Wolves at

359
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Speaker 2: home last week or two weeks ago. You saw the defense,

360
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Speaker 2: and it is refreshing because so much of this league

361
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Speaker 2: right now is tilting that that scale, that balance toward

362
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Speaker 2: you know, the overs and towards the openness. And you

363
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Speaker 2: look at the way Spurs and Liverpool and Brighton especially

364
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Speaker 2: even more of a Villa, you know, taking more chances

365
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Speaker 2: in possession, sending more numbers forward, playing more progressive style.

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Speaker 2: And then there's Palace who said, you know what, we

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Speaker 2: have actually conceded over one expected goal in three of

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Speaker 2: our four matches, and yet we are a top five

369
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Speaker 2: defense of this league despite that, which is just kind

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Speaker 2: of tells you how much this league has tilted toward

371
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Speaker 2: goals in the last you know, I would say eight

372
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Speaker 2: to ten months. It's it's been a real revelation. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, from a matchup perspective, I think that this

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Speaker 2: suits Palace to be, you know, defensive, and in transition,

375
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Speaker 2: Villa has done a really good job of creating a

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Speaker 2: specific high number of chances without really great shot volume.

377
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Speaker 2: I kind of think that the shot volume numbers will

378
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Speaker 2: win the day there and they're just not going to

379
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Speaker 2: be as good of an attack as they've been thus far,

380
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Speaker 2: and I think the Liverpool match kind of suggested that.

381
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Speaker 2: But also the teams that have given Villa trouble have

382
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Speaker 2: been the teams that are able to get time and

383
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Speaker 2: space on the ball in the midfield and pick out

384
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Speaker 2: a pass and like Palace doesn't really have that. They

385
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 2: don't have the Trent, they don't have you know, the

386
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,679
Speaker 2: voted type player. So I think that's you know, one

387
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,719
Speaker 2: of the main kind of differences with Villa, Whereas you know,

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Speaker 2: Palace will struggle here and the numbers about right for me,

389
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Speaker 2: like I have Villa slightly better. They're at home so

390
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Speaker 2: if it got to you know, three quarters or a goal,

391
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Speaker 2: and certainly I'm all over Palace. But at the current number,

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Speaker 2: it's a past.

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Speaker 1: All right, BJ This one is gonna be a lot

394
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Speaker 1: of fun here, Yeah, a lot of fun. Yeah. Fulham

395
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,440
Speaker 1: is minus one fifty at home against the newly promoted

396
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 1: hatters Loutontown plus four to fifty. That draws plus two

397
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 1: seventy five. I know Fols played a relatively tough schedule.

398
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 1: The Everden match to open the season, of course, was

399
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Speaker 1: a disastrous win for them. They still trying to figure

400
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 1: that one out how they won that match, and then

401
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 1: it was a Brentford Arsenal City, so the numbers are

402
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 1: going to be a little bit skewed. But they also

403
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 1: were terrible defensively last year and now they're just getting

404
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: punished for it more often than not. So like if

405
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 1: you're gonna bet Lutontown at some point and we're going

406
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Speaker 1: to this feels it. So I'm in plus four to fifty.

407
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 1: This is my first bet on.

408
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Speaker 3: Them, Yeah, plus one minus one thirty four for me,

409
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 3: you know, Michael, as crazy as I didn't think Fulham

410
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 3: was that bad as the final scoreline suggests against City

411
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Speaker 3: they only allowed City six shots in the entire match.

412
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Speaker 3: I can't remember the last time City was held in

413
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 3: ten shots at home, but all of them were just

414
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 3: of incredibly high value. So Fulham did do a decent job.

415
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: But the situation here is going to drastically change where

416
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 3: they're going to be have to be the ones that

417
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 3: are controlling possession, playing through pressure, and that is not

418
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Speaker 3: something that I think they are capable of this at

419
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Speaker 3: this time. They do keep Paulinia because the deal fell

420
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 3: through with Bayern Munich. That's obviously a plus for them.

421
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 3: But the problems that have existed for Fulham defensively is

422
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: they've really struggled to defend in wide areas. They've done

423
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 3: a good job of clogging up the middle of the

424
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 3: pitch closing it down there, but so far this season

425
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 3: they've allowed eighty two crosses and seven of them to

426
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 3: be cleared in their penalty area Lowtontown. If you look

427
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 3: at their profile, it's a lot of bad they To

428
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 3: be fair to them though, they have played Brighton on

429
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 3: the road, Chelsea on the road and then what a

430
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 3: really informed west Ham team at home, which I didn't

431
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 3: think they were that bad in that match. You know,

432
00:20:58,119 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 3: if you look at the expected goals, it was pretty even.

433
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: West Ham did obviously create the two big chances, there

434
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: were large stretches where Lutontown was applying great pressure to

435
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 3: west Ham and in the end, you know, again the

436
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 3: expected goals bared out that it really wasn't that dominant

437
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 3: of a west Ham win. So now we get here.

438
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 3: The one thing that Luton Town has done well this

439
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 3: season is they have completed the fourth most crosses of

440
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 3: anybody in the Premier League. That's actually encouraging here when

441
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 3: you're gonna face a Fullham team that it struggles to

442
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 3: defend those crosses. So we have one thing we haven't

443
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: really seen with Luton though that I'm I'm kind of

444
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,479
Speaker 3: sad by. But then again, you look at what Burnley's doing,

445
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 3: it's like it clearly wouldn't have worked. Is they're not

446
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 3: coming out with their high pressing like crazy style that

447
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,199
Speaker 3: they did in the championship. I think Rob Edwards is

448
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 3: kind of think he just knows that if he does that,

449
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 3: they're gonna getripped apart. So he's trying to blend the

450
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 3: two styles together and he's kind of struggling. But again,

451
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 3: they've played difficult competition. So now they get to play

452
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 3: somebody down near their level and full of minus one fifty.

453
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 3: I mean, on what earth should they be minus one

454
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 3: fifty against anybody in this Premier League right now? So

455
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 3: loot and toown plus one minus one thirty four. Yeah,

456
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 3: I the price is just insane and full. They should

457
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 3: never ever be above minus one fifteen against anybody in

458
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:14,719
Speaker 3: this league.

459
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: That's it.

460
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 2: I gotta think about it some more.

461
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 1: You can you can do that town.

462
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 2: I said that I was not going to bet them

463
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 2: more than five times all season. This this is the

464
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: closest I've come yet.

465
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 3: What if they become Brentford though.

466
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: They're they're not becoming brent There's nothing in their profile

467
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 2: that says that's happening. They don't have the talent, they

468
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 2: don't have the coach, and they have nothing.

469
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 1: They are terrible.

470
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 2: But they did play well against west Ham. If you

471
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 2: got a west game in that game, you should send

472
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: me the Lotto tickets because that was very lucky cash.

473
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 1: Ye all right, Well, be sure to follow Anthony in

474
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 1: the award winning Action Network app. I don't think I'm

475
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 1: going to do it to see when, No, you'll do it.

476
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 2: Maybe We'll get some fulham steam on match day and

477
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 2: then I.

478
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: Have a slice of pizza on Friday night. Just just

479
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 1: lock that puppy in and join the fun on the Hatters.

480
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: More fun coming in the next one. This one's gonna

481
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun too.

482
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 3: Boy.

483
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 1: I mean, like I, as I said, like the more

484
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 1: and more I dug into this slate, the more and

485
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: more I was just laughing. It's like they kind of

486
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 1: created schedule of matches for this podcast because we're gonna

487
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: be all over Brighton. In the spot, United is plus

488
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: one fifteen at home, Brighton comes to the Theater of

489
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 1: Dreams at plus two ten and the Drugs plus two

490
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 1: seventy five. How can you trust United to stop this

491
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: Brighton defense Brighton attack enough to like not be tempted

492
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: by this number or or actually, let me put it

493
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 1: the other way, how do you trust this United defense

494
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: enough to bet United's what's the Devil's Advocate case here, Anthony?

495
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 2: The case to bet United?

496
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really hard to I can't come up.

497
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think there's a clear what caase

498
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: And it's like, oh yeah, Eric ten Hoggs said, we

499
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: want to become the best counter attacking team in the

500
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 2: world right and from a personnel perspective they could become

501
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: a very good attacking team and transition and countertacks. But

502
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 2: when you're playing Brighton at home and your team name

503
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: is Manchester United, there's a certain way of playing, there's

504
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: a certain expectation of how you're going to approach the match.

505
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 2: And I don't know if Tenahag can really walk into

506
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,479
Speaker 2: a home match against Brighton and say, yes, we are

507
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: going to let Brighton have sixty plus per Brighton and

508
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 2: Hove Albion have sixty plus percent of the ball and

509
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 2: we're going to try to beat them in transition by

510
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: defending it with out of possession, given our injury situation

511
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: and given our kind of uncertain tactics thus far, because

512
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 2: they have gotten caught, I think between two minds in

513
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: the sense that they want to create more high turnovers

514
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 2: and be better out of possession, and against a team

515
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 2: like Brighton, who you know, has the most extreme defensive

516
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 2: profile in the league thus far in terms of creat

517
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: conceding a bunch of high quality chances and then not

518
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: much else, Like you could see the path where like

519
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: they're going to have problems defending in space against the

520
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: United attackers. But this is now United without Anthony. I'm

521
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 2: fascinated to see who is start arts in his place.

522
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: And I think that, you know, even if Hoyland is

523
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 2: in there, which I expect him to start now, there

524
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 2: is a certain kind of gelling period that comes along

525
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 2: with that. So you have to think Man United is

526
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: better than Brighton on a neutral field. And look, the

527
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: market thinks that. The market thought that coming into the season.

528
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: None of us agree with that. I still don't think

529
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: that's true. So naturally we're all going to be on

530
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 2: the seagulls as a nice dog here. The market has

531
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: come down a little bit, so, you know, Man United

532
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 2: has taken a little bit of money Brighton. You know,

533
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 2: United was about minus one oh five on the look Ahead,

534
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 2: then they drifted all the way to plus one thirty.

535
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,719
Speaker 2: Now they've come back to about plus one fifteen ish,

536
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 2: So there has been some buyback on United at home here.

537
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: I think that's you know, some injury news. Maybe maybe

538
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: not having Anthony's deposit, but they, you know, are going

539
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: to have problems stopping Brighton because everybody does. I mean,

540
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 2: Evan Ferguson is a superstar and now he's playing you know,

541
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: in starting matches, So lookout league, have fun.

542
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, we love our selves.

543
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: A Fati maybe makes his debut here, Yeah, I mean

544
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: another shot monster, great attacking midfielder, you know.

545
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, b J, I mean this is this one was

546
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: made for you too.

547
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I love Brighton, but I also love over

548
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 3: three and a half at plus one twenty. So Anthony

549
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: made a great point where Manchester United is stuck in

550
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: between two different tactics where they perched Sonana because Deha

551
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 3: couldn't couldn't use his feet and they couldn't build out

552
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 3: of the back, so they bought Onana so they could

553
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 3: start to build out of the back. But then ten

554
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 3: Hog comes out and obviously, like Anthony said, they want

555
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 3: to become the best transitional team in the world. What

556
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 3: has happened time and time again with United is when

557
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 3: they face teams that will man mark high press them.

558
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 3: So teams like Arsenal, teams like Newcastle, teams like Brighton,

559
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 3: they have struggled so so bad because guys like Casamiro

560
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 3: are not guys who are going to have their back

561
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: to the defense, receive the ball and be pressed resistant

562
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: and build out of the back that way. So far,

563
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 3: the season, Casimiro has turned the ball over twenty times

564
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: in United's own final third. That is really really bad.

565
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: And Brighton although Anthony's like Anthony mentioned, they are very

566
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 3: bad defensively to start things like that, they've been really

567
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 3: really bad. They've conceded, so they've eight con seeded eight

568
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 3: big scoring chances in four matches and it hasn't really

569
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 3: been a murder's row. They are a pressing monster under

570
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 3: deserve me so far second and pass per defensive action,

571
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 3: number one in high turnovers, number one in shots off

572
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 3: of those high turnovers. So they're obviously a team that

573
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: can just rip you apart if you turn it over

574
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: in your own final third. And the problems that are

575
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: gonna exist here with United is like I agree with

576
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: the Anthony like, it's tend of really gonna come out

577
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: here and say we're gonna pull off what David Moyes

578
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 3: did with west Ham, like when they went to Brighton.

579
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 3: We're gonna sit deep. We're not even gonna press them,

580
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 3: We're just gonna sit in our own defensive block and

581
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 3: try to see this game out and then look to counter.

582
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 3: I do not see them even attempting to do that,

583
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: and United could be without three of their usual starters

584
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 3: across their back line. Yeah, right now if Veran is out,

585
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 3: Shaw is out, Malasea is out. So there it goes.

586
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 3: You're one and two depth at left back. So they've

587
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 3: been playing Dallo out of position at left back and

588
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 3: los Angele Martinez went off against Arsenal and it's questionable

589
00:27:59,440 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 3: play in this.

590
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: So we could.

591
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 3: See Victor Lindelof and Harry Maguire back there for Manchester United.

592
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 3: So they really are not going to be able to

593
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 3: build out of the back with those two guys.

594
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 2: And that's the thing, right so United. I actually thought,

595
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: and I watched Arsenal match pretty closely, like the Arsenal

596
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: press wasn't as good as it was in the spring meeting,

597
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 2: and I think a lot of that was actually Anana,

598
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 2: Like Onana was a good part of the distribution the

599
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: first phase, but then everything broke down, like they couldn't

600
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 2: get the ball from Okaynana made a good pass, Now

601
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: how do we get it to Rashford and they really

602
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: couldn't do that. And I think Amorbot is probably the

603
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 2: guy that fits in there best next to Casimira. I

604
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 2: think like an Amabat, Casmiro pivot could be really effective

605
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: for United, but I don't think we're going to see

606
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 2: that on Saturday. So I think are still there's still

607
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: time maybe for this to gel to work. Like I

608
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: truly do think that an Onana, Casimiro, Amrabot, Hoyland, Rashford

609
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: Fernandez team could be really good. It's a really good spine.

610
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: But again, like that's more of a later question, not

611
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 2: a Saturday question.

612
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and one more thing I'll mention, Michael. I know

613
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: you pointed this out the last time we talked about United,

614
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: how as it gets later and later in the match,

615
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 3: they just look absolutely gassed, like time and time again.

616
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 3: So far the season, they've conceded seven point one expected

617
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 3: goals in four matches. Three point five of them have

618
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 3: come in this seventy sixth minute or later per understat

619
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 3: So they really have defended okay for large stretches, and

620
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: then with no depth on their bench right now because

621
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: of all these injuries, they have just conceded so many

622
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 3: chances towards the end. So if you're somebody who likes

623
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 3: to live bet and this match is sitting kind of stale,

624
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: and there's been a bunch of chances and maybe a

625
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 3: good opportunity to jump in on a live over here,

626
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: But for me, I'm on Brighton money line. You know,

627
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: I bet Brighton early got in my minus one twenty

628
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 3: plus and a half, but I forgot to log it

629
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 3: in the alf So we're just gonna go bright In

630
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: money line at plus two thirty because I truly believe

631
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: that this should be a little more closer to a

632
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 3: pick them than Brighton being over two to one.

633
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: Surprise, surprise, all of a sudden, Brighton as an underdog Spurs. Anthony,

634
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: I think this was the match that I had like

635
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: the least kind of intrigue for The only thing I

636
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: wanted to say is the price on Spurs getting a

637
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: little nuts their minus three fifty hosting Sheffield United ten

638
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: to one at Tottenham Hot Spurs Stadium. In the draws

639
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: plus four fifty, I'd be really nervous laying it with

640
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: Spurs just because they're still in the early stages of

641
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: a revolution that we're behind. I got Anthony on board

642
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: finally for Big ang Ball, and we think it'll it'll

643
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: be a good thing for Spurs, but in the early going,

644
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: like it's it is still a little high risk, and

645
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: it's just that Sheffield United aren't the type of team

646
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: that like. I said a lot of underdogs on this

647
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: weekend that I like, and they're just not going to

648
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: make the list, so I'll be passing, but I would

649
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: be a little wary at this kind of number for Spurs.

650
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: Well, you know, Tottenham played two opponents prior to the

651
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: international break, Burnley and Bournemouth, who are trying to press,

652
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 2: trying to play the ball, trying to be more assertive,

653
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 2: and that kind of played into Tottenhams hands a little

654
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: bit and gave more space to operate. They also then

655
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: played Son up top and bench with Charlison against Burnley

656
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: and then had an attacking outburst. I don't think that's

657
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: a coincidence. So you know, I think that there's a

658
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 2: big question mark as to how they manage this going

659
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: forward because sown up top, you know, you don't get

660
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: him as a wing outlet and a runner. But in

661
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: this kind of matchup that's probably better because there's not

662
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: like there's gonna be a ton of space to operate

663
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: in behind Sheffield United here because United is not going

664
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: to play like Brentford or Bournemouth and Burnley. They're gonna

665
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: play more like Brentford did against Tottenham, which was Okay,

666
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: have the ball in our final third, you're not gonna

667
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: get in our penalty area. Of course, Sheffield's much worse

668
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,959
Speaker 2: than Brentford defensively, but the tactics kind of play out

669
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: in a similar way. And I think that there's real

670
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 2: questions about how good are these Spurs wingers, whether it's

671
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: Alman and Kulaseevski, the two i'd expect to start. Potentially

672
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: if they place on up top, how good are they

673
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 2: at beating a man and getting across in And they

674
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 2: don't really have like a target man in the middle,

675
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 2: like like Harry Kane used to be, So I think

676
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: there are some questions about how they'll break down effective

677
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 2: low blocks. You could debate how effective the low block

678
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: of Sheffield will be, but it would be under or

679
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 2: nothing for me. I will be waiting on some lineups.

680
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: Destiny Odaldi might be the best left back in the league.

681
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna put that out there. I'm gonna throw

682
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: that into the into the space back in like three months.

683
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: I'm telling you, man, some of the underlying numbers on

684
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: him have been really impressive, getting forward, defending, like everything

685
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: in his profile and it's you know, he popped at

686
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: to swallow to me prior to this too, so it's

687
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 2: not like this came out of nowhere. He's been really

688
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 2: really impressive overall, so you know, I'm buying into the

689
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 2: profile and his ability to you know, win take ons

690
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 2: and get forward and contribute defensively and win the ball high.

691
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: It's been extremely impressive to watch and him and Sar

692
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: I think are the you know, these are guys who

693
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: were bought last year and now I've kind of been

694
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: brought in this year, and you know that's been a

695
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: big part of the revolution. Willing to play the kids,

696
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:12,239
Speaker 2: which Antonio Conte was not. So yeah, exciting times. You know,

697
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 2: there's still a ceiling on this team unless they get

698
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: a better striker Europa League.

699
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: Maybe we've got one of the best in the world.

700
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: Bj richarleson Yeah, j what are your thoughts here? Man?

701
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 3: I do like the under three. The best pricing you

702
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 3: can find is at plus one. Actually I bet three

703
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: sixty five. Anthony nathan All on that head here is

704
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: that Toddham have played essentially three teams United, Bournemouth and

705
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: Burnley who will press them high, play into their hands

706
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: and allow Tottenham to go forward and do what they

707
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: do best, which is go forward that blitz them attack

708
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 3: transitional opportunities. That's where Sun and company are at their best.

709
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: You saw it against Brentford. Now I'm not saying Sheffield

710
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: United is Brentford, but they did struggle for large stretches

711
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 3: of trying to break down a Lowa block. And Sheffield

712
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 3: United so far the season, although they have concealed a

713
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: lot of chances, they do have the fourth best final

714
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: third penalty box entry conversion rate, which is a very

715
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 3: encouraging sign if you're going to play five at the

716
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: back and clog up the middle of the pitch. And

717
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: like Anthony mentioned, Tottenham doesn't have very can anymore, which

718
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: means they don't really have that aerial threat in the

719
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: middle of the box. Where if Sheffield Unity clogs up

720
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch and just says, okay, you

721
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 3: can try to beat us to death crosses and they

722
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 3: just don't have anybody to get on the end of those,

723
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: then that's where the problem lies for Tottenham and Sheffield United.

724
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, the expected goals numbers have been bad,

725
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 3: but if you watch their matches like they do well

726
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 3: for really really large stretches and then they just make

727
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: one or two like really dumb mistakes where they just

728
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: don't pick up a runner and they just teams will

729
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 3: head in an easy goal inside the yard box, and

730
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 3: then it's like, oh my gosh, look at that. They

731
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 3: just conceded two point two expected goals. It's like, all right,

732
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 3: well they did, like if you look at it. For example,

733
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 3: a good example is the Manchester City match where City

734
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,959
Speaker 3: took I think like twenty shots in the first hour,

735
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: like it was an insane a number, but all of

736
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 3: those weren't really of great value, and then of course

737
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 3: Holland scores and they got to play more aggressive and

738
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 3: City created a bunch of chances and ends up with

739
00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: you know, three and a half expected goals with a

740
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 3: penalty there. But I think they can really frustrate this

741
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: Tottenham team for really large stretches. They're going to be

742
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 3: on the road, They're not going to obviousically not going

743
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 3: to come out and try and press them. They're going

744
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 3: to stay very compact and I don't think Tottenham is

745
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: going to really press them once Scheffley United has the ball,

746
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 3: because they've shown they're just going to send them all along.

747
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 3: So I think Tottenham will kind of sit back as

748
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 3: well and just try to win those duels in the

749
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch, which will create kind of a

750
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 3: slow clog type match. So I only projected two point

751
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: six for this one, so under three plus went away

752
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 3: from me.

753
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 2: We joked about a Jovers and then like the market

754
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: completely overreacted to like one game, but that's been the

755
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 2: whole league too.

756
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 3: So and a lookhead spot for Tottenham. Look ahead to

757
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: what the North London Darby.

758
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't care about that. Oh off international off

759
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: international break. We don't have Europe. No look ahead there.

760
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 2: We will be Benny Tottenham next week though, if the

761
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 2: line stays where it is right.

762
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: Now, no, we won't.

763
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,399
Speaker 1: I will be west Ham and City now. I guess

764
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: the question now is like when when is the time coming?

765
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 3: This might be a hit.

766
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 1: It's close six west Ham United?

767
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 3: No to to fade City?

768
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 2: Oh to fade City?

769
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: Yeah right, we're.

770
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 3: Gonna I think about I'm thinking about riding this insanity

771
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 3: run the west Ham.

772
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 1: They might they might just win the travel this team

773
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: uh west Ham six to one at home, City minus

774
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: two two three traveling and uh the draws plus three fifty.

775
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: I can't really pick out anything interesting with City, yet

776
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,760
Speaker 1: usually there's something interesting that kind of bubbles up early

777
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 1: on in the year.

778
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: They're worse with Holland Yeah, but I mean we said.

779
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 1: That about that too. They were the best team in

780
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: the world.

781
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: Did I say they're worse with without the Bruyna? And

782
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 3: how clear it is right now and how they're gonna lose.

783
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 1: But figure out like they just figure it out. But

784
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean those are bigger picture questions for for west Ham.

785
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 1: I just like they're a tough team to beat when

786
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: they're playing moise ball and I know that great against Lowtontown,

787
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: but I'll forgive them that's a that was a weird

788
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: spot first Premier League game there. And uh for that

789
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 1: home crowd. They had right of the ball, Yeah, they

790
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: exactly they needed to be.

791
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: On the ball, can't Michael. I can't get the Brighton

792
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 3: match out of my head.

793
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were so good.

794
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 2: They just but like Brighton doesn't have rodri and Stone's

795
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 2: and Guardiol and like City does.

796
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is what Guardiol's second game with them, that's.

797
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: Here's here's your case. Here's your case. If you want

798
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 3: to bet west Ham is I'm going to say this

799
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: right now I think that west Ham, the business that

800
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 3: they've done this summer has actually been very very good.

801
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: To replace Declan Rice, essentially, you cannot, you can you

802
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 3: cannot replace Declan Rice with one player. But what you

803
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 3: can do is take the best qualities that Declan Rice has,

804
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 3: because he is perfect at everything. You can take his

805
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 3: great defensive qualities and you can replace him with Edison Alvarez,

806
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: and you can take his great ball progression and passing

807
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: skills and you can replace them with James Ward Prowse.

808
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 3: And I think it kind of works, especially in this match.

809
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 3: I mean that Brighton match. Edison Alvarez is so so

810
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 3: good in that defensive midfield rule, protecting the back line,

811
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 3: tracking all the tracking the strikers wherever they go. He

812
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: is the reason why now this west Ham low block

813
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: is actually really effective and able to keep teams out

814
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 3: City without de Bruyna is a very very interesting cage

815
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 3: in case, if you watch the match against Fulham, what's

816
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 3: end up, what's had to happen is now they're playing

817
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 3: Ulian Alvarez kind of up top and into ten kind

818
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 3: of role, and with him being a natural strikers, he's

819
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 3: had to kind of drop back and play that ten role,

820
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 3: receive the ball and kind of facilitate it. You know,

821
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 3: rodri is not Gundigan. He's not a box invader. He's

822
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 3: not somebody that's going to get forward and push up

823
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 3: on that second line of defense. He's much more someone

824
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: that kind of sits out and around the box. So

825
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 3: now him alongside with Kovacic, it's a much much more

826
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 3: defensive approach from City. I mean, listen, they're still City like.

827
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 3: They still created a ton of chances. Like it's not

828
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,479
Speaker 3: like they're like, oh my gosh, like it's Panic mode.

829
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: But what de Bruyna does for them is not only

830
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 3: is he great at receiving the ball between the lines

831
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 3: and picking out those pass in getting the assists, but

832
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 3: what Pep has done a lot with him is that

833
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 3: when teams try to man mark him, he'll just pull

834
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 3: him out wide and take their best center backer, defensive

835
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 3: midfielder with him and create space in the middle of

836
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: the pitch. Now they don't have that, Teams are able

837
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 3: to clog up the middle of the pitch, and I

838
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 3: think that's why you saw them take only six shots

839
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: against Fulham, is just because they couldn't find anything through

840
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: the middle.

841
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:19,959
Speaker 2: Of the pitch.

842
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 3: Now you have grealish questionable for this match. It looks

843
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 3: like john Stones will be back as well. I think

844
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,879
Speaker 3: there's some question marks with City right now and they

845
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 3: may very well win this match like for nothing, and

846
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 3: you know that's oh my gosh. We're also stupid for

847
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 3: even questioning that City is maybe a worse off. But

848
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 3: I think there's a real chance here now. The numbers

849
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: not good.

850
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 2: Enough, Like I'm not even closed, that's the problem.

851
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: Now we can have this wonderful conversation, but I need

852
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: west Ham plus one and a half to have any

853
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 3: to even start the conversation here, So it is a

854
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 3: pass for me. Would need a way better number.

855
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 2: City at the beginning of last year was minus one

856
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 2: and a half at west Ham and I was like, yeah,

857
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 2: that's about right. Now they're like going a quarter, Like

858
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 2: is west Ham better? You see? I think they're better

859
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: set up to play the most extreme form of moist ball,

860
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 2: which is just like we're going to do the set pieces,

861
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: we're going to do the occasional counter attack, and we're

862
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: going to defend for our lives. And so far, so good,

863
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: it's been. It's been effective. But how long is.

864
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 3: That going to work.

865
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 2: How long is mckel antonio going to stay playing at

866
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: the level he has been in the first month, But

867
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: Ketta keeping him, I think is a huge key. Of course.

868
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 3: Yeahs interesting.

869
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 2: It's in the system though, it's gonna be interesting.

870
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 3: He's gonna play, He's gonna play more centrally.

871
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 2: That's where Paqueta and like they're still going to play

872
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: a double pivot. So where does he fit in the team.

873
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: I don't know. And he's not like a get the

874
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 2: ball and then run and dribble with it. He's more

875
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 2: of a we have the ball.

876
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 1: And figure it out. I mean, I have no bet here.

877
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: I use a transfer market legend.

878
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: Their defense has been quote unquote good, but they've conceded.

879
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 2: It's a ton of chances they just haven't gone in.

880
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: But so it's everybody. I mean, it's just the Premier

881
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: League is just a chance after chance.

882
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: More fun for a neutral way, less fun for betting.

883
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 3: I think it's like right now, last season the Premier

884
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: League averaged I think it was around two.

885
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:03,280
Speaker 2: Point three tenths of a goal roughly ninety.

886
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's three tenths better. It's like last year was

887
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 3: like three and now it's like three point three.

888
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 2: You know there's a small impact on extra time, but

889
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: a lot of it is just I think it's tactical.

890
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 2: I do think.

891
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 1: I agree, I do two and one of the teams

892
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 1: that is part of this is Brentford. Their plus five

893
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: hundred going up north to Saint James Park take on

894
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: Newcastle minus one eighty two. The draw is plus three hundred.

895
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: Brentford's right up there when you look at the underlying metrics,

896
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: is one of the best offensive teams in the league.

897
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: Newcastle coming in one win, no draws, three losses. They

898
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 1: think we spent some time talking about Newcastle on the

899
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 1: Champions League pot really tough schedule, but when you I

900
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: think when you actually look at the matches themselves, like

901
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: you'd come away less impressed with with Newcastle than you

902
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: could be if you just said, oh, well, you know what.

903
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: They they lost the City, they lost to Liverpool and

904
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: they lost to Brighton. The Brighton performance was not good.

905
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: They were down three to nothing inside seventy minutes and

906
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 1: couldn't stop Evan Ferguson. The Liverpool performance was a choke job,

907
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 1: and City they just never got going. So if you're

908
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 1: going to be a team that is one of the

909
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: favorites to be a top four and a gate potential

910
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 1: gate crasher in the title race. Those are matches that

911
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 1: you need, end points, you need to get. So I

912
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: think that the market maybe is a little too high

913
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: on on Newcastle. It's a team that I really have

914
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: trouble getting right. I finally did by betting Brighton against

915
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: them on the other side of the international break. And

916
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet Brentford here because I think Brentford

917
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 1: has the offensive chops to give Newcastle problems to at

918
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: least get a one or two on the board. And

919
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: if Newcastle is slow and pragmatic and takes forever to

920
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 1: build up like Brentford can catch catch them like new

921
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: Liverpool caught them with ten men twice. This Brentford team

922
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: can catch them on the counter. Yeah, i'vean Tony like,

923
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: who knew? Are they better without am Anthony?

924
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 2: I don't think so. But you know, the attack is

925
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 2: the attack is a little bit bullied by that red

926
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 2: card showing against Fulham. They kind of have to score

927
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: on Fulham onths they were down to ten men. But

928
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 2: this is the ultimate Boss level challenge for Newcastle. Whether

929
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: this is the match where we will learn the most

930
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,399
Speaker 2: about Newcastle this season because again, like they lost the City,

931
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: they lost to Brighton, you know on the road. They

932
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 2: were expected to lose those matches. They choke Liverpool at

933
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,320
Speaker 2: home after outplaying them for seventy five minutes. That happens.

934
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 2: Didn't really take too much from that loss other than

935
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: then the fact that Eddie Howe's Newcastle was too pro

936
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,760
Speaker 2: too passive playing with the lead, too passive in possession,

937
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 2: and that is the ultimate question that will decide how

938
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: good they are this year. Teams are going to start

939
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 2: playing them more defensively. They're going to give them less

940
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 2: space in behind. They're going to play them like they

941
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 2: are a top four team. Branford is the boss of this.

942
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 2: This is what they do to every big team. They

943
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: cause a ton of problems this way and their rest defense.

944
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 2: They're very passive when they want to be. They can

945
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 2: defend the penaltary well, they spring counters, they get in

946
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 2: behind on you. This will be the challenge and Newcastle

947
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: can separate from them and win this match by multiple goals.

948
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 2: I will tip my cap because I'm betting that they

949
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: will not do that, so I'm taking bread for plus one.

950
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 2: Don't dislike them you know, a money line sprinkle either.

951
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be a challenge for them. I

952
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 2: think this game is going to be very instructive as

953
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: to what we think about Newcastle going forward, because I

954
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,439
Speaker 2: honestly don't have a real changed opinion of them after

955
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 2: the first four in which they got a great matchup

956
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 2: with Villa and dominated them. Okay, they lose to City

957
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: by a goal, they choke a game, they lose a game, whatever.

958
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 2: Now this is where, you know, the schedule lightens up

959
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 2: a little bit starting here. Can they get some results

960
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: and start putting up points, because I think they're going

961
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: to be in the mix.

962
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, beaj we're gonna have to commit to you're passing here,

963
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 1: but we'll get you on board.

964
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,919
Speaker 3: But shocked, yeah to This matchup has been really bad

965
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 3: for Brentford last year or so.

966
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

967
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's two games. Yeah, it's been.

968
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,280
Speaker 3: It's been a tad scary. They've gotten ripped apart multiple

969
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 3: times by Newcastle, so that scares me. And you know,

970
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: you also look at the fact that, yes, Brentford has

971
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 3: played Tottenham, but other than that, the schedule has been

972
00:44:58,000 --> 00:44:58,760
Speaker 3: a little bit easier.

973
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 2: I remember one of those games games if I had Brentford.

974
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 3: Oh, the one where it's like fourteen.

975
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 2: Big chances and then got done on the counter or

976
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 2: twice and lost to one. Like it was they weren't

977
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 2: that bad in my mind where they got there destroyed.

978
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: Yeah that was bad. Yeah it was like five to one.

979
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that that one just keep sticking in my

980
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 3: mind cause I'm pretty sure I had Brentford in that match.

981
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,439
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is Newcastle at home. You know, they've

982
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 3: been one of the best teams in the Premier League.

983
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 3: At home it's a very very difficult place to play.

984
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

985
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna need some convincing because I do project

986
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 3: Newcastle at minus one seventy, so I'm pretty in line

987
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: with what the market is. So I'm I'm going to

988
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 3: pass and probably regret it when when Brentford wins to me.

989
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 2: Won one Newcastle one point seven five xg, most of

990
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 2: it coming in the last ten minutes when they're like, ohit,

991
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 2: we're about to drop play calendar. Yeah, Callum Wasson, they

992
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: need to play him with estag. I'm sorry, Like al

993
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 2: Maron experiment just does not do it for me. But

994
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: again on the line up, another reason to think, well,

995
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 2: maybe Newcastle.

996
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'll be in the Bees money line. We'll

997
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 1: talk more about that as well later. Bourne Myth is

998
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five hosting Chelsea. Bet regret not going

999
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: in on Forrest against Chelsea.

1000
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: What the team's to score? What a beut? That was

1001
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:18,360
Speaker 2: freaking Jackson missing. It's happened from like three yards. Just unbelievable.

1002
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 1: I don't know how Chelsea does it? Man, they TEAMO

1003
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 1: Werner Nico Jackson like this just averts Yeah, haverts like.

1004
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 2: It's it's mount had a bad stretch.

1005
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 1: It's beautiful stuffs. Yeah, Chelsea's odds on the road. What

1006
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: minus went thirty eighth to plus and you can get

1007
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 1: plus two eighty on the draw. Our high hopes for

1008
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 1: Bourne Myth have have kind of faded a little bit. No,

1009
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be sending this one out, b J.

1010
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 2: How have they faded?

1011
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 3: They're fine. I thought they were actually very good against uh,

1012
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 3: against Brentford. They obviously, you know, Brentford created a lot

1013
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 3: of chances and they were good underseige, but they were

1014
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 3: very effective with their counter attacking opportunities. So I'm just

1015
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 3: a bad They haven't won yet.

1016
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 1: They haven't They they haven't paid off as a money

1017
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: line underdog for me.

1018
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,800
Speaker 3: Yet they're getting better homes and they have the personnel

1019
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 3: that can potentially give Chelsea problems here Chelsea, it's it's

1020
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 3: very very interesting because they have all of his talent, man,

1021
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 3: like you look at it like a Cassado and Fernandez.

1022
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: Midfield should be just running teams over like left and right,

1023
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 3: and they're just not right now. And even though they

1024
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 3: like they have the best pressing numbers in the Premier League,

1025
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 3: like their best and passive per defensive action, like they've

1026
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 3: been good in that aspect. But I don't think that

1027
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 3: Poach team has really figured out what is front three

1028
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 3: is going to be. Like you just I can't really

1029
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 3: put my finger on it. Like just when you watch Chelsea,

1030
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 3: you're just like, man, this team just doesn't really have

1031
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 3: it tactically figured out like or have a plan like

1032
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 3: some of these other teams do.

1033
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: They don't get shot they don't get shots.

1034
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,959
Speaker 3: No, they don't they true get the shots. They don't

1035
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 3: have a true number nine and that's what they've needed

1036
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 3: for a long time. And they've spent a billion dollars

1037
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 3: except on a striker. It's just it's crazy, and yes,

1038
00:47:57,120 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 3: I know that in Kuku and Nicholas Jackson can play

1039
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 3: as a false nine and they're they're good enough in

1040
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 3: that role. But yeah, they just I don't know, this

1041
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:04,839
Speaker 3: is an easy pass for me. I think the numbers

1042
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 3: about right for Chelsea. I think I don't know if

1043
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 3: we're going to learn really much from this match. I

1044
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 3: mean if even if Bournemouth wins, I think we can

1045
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 3: come away just saying like, yeah, they're still problems with Chelsea,

1046
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 3: but yeah, I need to see Chelsea show show some continuity,

1047
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 3: tactical plan life something for me to actually want to

1048
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 3: wager on them.

1049
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 2: Orma's going to get healthier and get to the easier

1050
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 2: part of their schedule and start winning, it's my takeaway.

1051
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 2: But for now, like, yeah, they'll do it when they're

1052
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 2: getting Brentford to mid table teams.

1053
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: When they're like minus one fifteen at home against Fulham or.

1054
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 2: Some sign me up to bet that please, I would lay.

1055
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 1: That it's not as exciting as as.

1056
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,720
Speaker 2: Michael Leeboff of famously said. I just can't do minus

1057
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 2: one ten anymore. Last time. Last time I saw the.

1058
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 1: Person forest plus one twenty at home hosting Burnley. This

1059
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: is the Monday night football game Burnley's plus two twenty

1060
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: five that draws plus two fifty. I thought we were

1061
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 1: gonna get a the way a better number Burnley. But yeah,

1062
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 1: they're just never gonna come. Maybe they are Manchester City,

1063
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 1: the old Manchester City captain, So I don't know. And

1064
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:10,720
Speaker 1: I think that this is the kind of the matchup

1065
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 1: that Burnley has been waiting for. So I was kind

1066
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 1: of excited to bet them because this is it, I think.

1067
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 3: Because like, yes, I get in in respect, like they

1068
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: faced a bunch of teams that can build out of

1069
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 3: the back and they've just ripped them apart like left

1070
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,800
Speaker 3: and right. They can't like again, I'll say it again,

1071
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 3: like Vincent Company, you have to sit back, like you

1072
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 3: can't just press with reckless, abandon with the front four

1073
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: against good build up teams and just expect that what

1074
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 3: happened to the championship is gonna happen here. You have

1075
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 3: to figure out something different to be able to survive. Now,

1076
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 3: I mean Nottingham Forest is just gonna send them along.

1077
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 3: They're not gonna try to buil out of the back

1078
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 3: Canst Burnley. They can press them all they want, They're

1079
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 3: just gonna play them all over the top against them,

1080
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 3: and I have questioned for you guys, is like not

1081
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 3: Ingham Forrest, like not in this match, but going forward

1082
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 3: like betable good like in terms of like backing them

1083
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,280
Speaker 3: as an underdog against some of these bigger teams.

1084
00:49:59,200 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1085
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, they ow Nation.

1086
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: That Anthony didn't find out about until last year.

1087
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 2: Well what a second? Oh, this is the Steve Cooper thing.

1088
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 2: I don't think he's a good manager. But if you

1089
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 2: buy enough players, eventually like two or three of them

1090
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 2: are going to be good enough. And that they got one.

1091
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 2: They got Tywo, he's good. And then they got rid

1092
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 2: of Brendan Johnson who's not good, and so they don't

1093
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: play him anymore. They can't play him. Therefore there could

1094
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 2: be better. Is good? They got him?

1095
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 3: Here we go. Michael Forest is going to City next

1096
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 3: City off of a Champions League third match in seven days?

1097
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,800
Speaker 2: Where is City League at Belgrade?

1098
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 3: No, they're home. Tune into the Champions League pod where

1099
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 3: my best bet might be Belgrade plus three against City.

1100
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 3: That's just like the easiest pass on the board from me.

1101
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 3: I su it sucks that it's on a Monday, which

1102
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 3: they would have just buried this, you know, in the

1103
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 3: ten am window and played Brighton and United or something.

1104
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 2: Maybe actually wouldn't play again. Letould just reshow the match

1105
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: once Brighton.

1106
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: I know they can't. I know they can't because of

1107
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 3: the European h schedule, but it would have been nice

1108
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 3: to have a better match here on a Monday. But yeah,

1109
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:08,240
Speaker 3: I mean I barely compress all they want. But Force

1110
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 3: is just gonna send the ball along and then they're

1111
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 3: gonna have to deal with Tywo and and all the

1112
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: other big guys up front.

1113
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah it's a pass. But if you are

1114
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 1: looking for some action, I think Tywo is like a

1115
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: two plus goal scorer. Maybe maybe go down that road,

1116
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: all right, Bundesliga time, Anthony. If if clad Bach Byron

1117
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 1: is your super Bowl, this one is, uh, this is

1118
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: the Pro Bowl. I feel like it didn't take too long.

1119
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 1: I noticed in the sheet right away that you were

1120
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: ready to fade Byron right right away.

1121
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: Again we go again. You know, we couldn't get the

1122
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 2: money line home on Super Bowl Sunday Saturday a couple

1123
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,839
Speaker 2: weeks ago. I was we took the lead and then

1124
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 2: hit the post and had a chance to go up too,

1125
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 2: and I was like, what is happening? Like this is

1126
00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: the worst glod Buck team I've ever seen fielded and

1127
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 2: we're winning it against Byron. But Byron did score late,

1128
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 2: winning two one. Actually the perfect result really. Once I

1129
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 2: realized Glodbach wasn't going to win the game, I was like, well,

1130
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: for our relegation ticket, they probably should lose this game.

1131
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:09,280
Speaker 2: But then also covered easily gladboc day cash is again

1132
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 2: against the spread. Bj did not bet it once again,

1133
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 2: didn't disappointment. One day we'll get him to do it

1134
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 2: and that will be the day behind wins six zero.

1135
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna fade Byron again. I think they're you know,

1136
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 2: I'm not going to say that like I downgraded them

1137
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 2: off of the game against Goldbach. They were fine, they

1138
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 2: were better team, deserved to win in the end. But

1139
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: I think that this Leverkusen team there's a chance for

1140
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: undervaluing them. They put up numbers that were right up

1141
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 2: there with Leipzig in the second half of last season,

1142
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 2: and they added a striker in Victor Boni Fass from

1143
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 2: unon St Juas, who is putting up like I mean,

1144
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 2: he won't sustain this level of production, but the numbers

1145
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 2: he's putting up in this system, like it's like they

1146
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 2: took mussad Abi out and then got a better version

1147
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 2: of him and now he plays central and versus healthy

1148
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 2: and from Pong's been really good, and like this team

1149
00:52:57,280 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 2: is loaded with really fun attacking players and Byron may

1150
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 2: not have Kimmick for this match, so you know, they

1151
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,919
Speaker 2: lose Gravin back, they don't have Kimmick now and they

1152
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 2: are going to be vulnerable, I think against this Leverkusen team.

1153
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 2: So I took some money line and I took some

1154
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 2: plus one. Bonny Foss four goals and two assists in

1155
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:17,240
Speaker 2: his first three Bundesliga matches, averaging one point one expected

1156
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:22,360
Speaker 2: goals plus expected assists per ninety. Like just obscene numbers

1157
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 2: in winning, you know, taking the ball and then dribbling

1158
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 2: it into the penalty area, you know, being an outlet,

1159
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: and then just getting ridiculously good shot numbers dominated against

1160
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 2: against god Bach in the matchup they had as well.

1161
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 2: So I'm really all in on this guy, and I

1162
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 2: think that you know, he raises this ceiling so high

1163
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 2: for Leverkusen that they may be the third best team

1164
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 2: in the league. I think there's a there's a decent

1165
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 2: shot they're better than Dortmound to come the end of.

1166
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 1: This all right, Yeah, I think you've convinced me here.

1167
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:50,359
Speaker 1: I saw that pop in and I was like, I'll

1168
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: probably jump in on this one.

1169
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:54,200
Speaker 2: It's a Friday afternoon too, so yeah, exactly.

1170
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 1: It's nice, nice way to wind down the week. BJ.

1171
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 1: What do you have in Germany?

1172
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:01,319
Speaker 3: Oh, let's have some fun. How Aboutberg dortmand over three

1173
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 3: and a half at plus one point thirty weird, weird

1174
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 3: situation here especially, you know, Dortmund is is a very

1175
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 3: very interesting case right now because they have been very,

1176
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: very vulnerable defensively and especially with teams that can do

1177
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 3: quick transitional attacks, which is a team that Freiburg just

1178
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 3: bases their entire attack on their main ball stopper in

1179
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch, sa mere Sean right now,

1180
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 3: Like we've seen him over his career, he's not an

1181
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 3: elite ball stopper, like he's no ok central midfielder. But

1182
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: he is not what Jude Bellingham was for Dortmund. And

1183
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 3: Dortmund also was below average defense defending set pieces. And

1184
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: if you know anything about Freiburg, they they're basically like

1185
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,800
Speaker 3: the Bournemouth of not Bournemouth, excuse me, Brentford of Germany

1186
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 3: where they just put this loads of value on just

1187
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 3: scoring off of set pieces, so they'll have advantages there.

1188
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 3: And the biggest thing with this matchup is both starting

1189
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:53,760
Speaker 3: goalkeepers for both teams are hurt, so we got backup

1190
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: goalkeepers in that there. I think it'll be a very

1191
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 3: back and forth transitional type match. You know, Freiberg has

1192
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 3: actually been pretty poor defensively despite their defensive shape. Just

1193
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:04,839
Speaker 3: gave up five goals to stut Cart in their last match,

1194
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 3: so I projected right on three and a half goals.

1195
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 3: So over three and a half plus one thirty is

1196
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 3: a good enough price for me.

1197
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: Not to mention as the the Friedburg Brentford connection. Flecken

1198
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 2: was the starter at Friedburg last year. The goalie he's

1199
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 2: been sold to Brentford, so that's you know, the backup

1200
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 2: goalie that they got. It came in to replace Fleckin out,

1201
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 2: So yeah, real question marks. I mean, Dorman doesn't play

1202
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 2: defense and last year they just outscored everybody. This year

1203
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 2: they're not doing that, so uh, it's it's a.

1204
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 3: Also Kevin Shade at Brentford was the Freiburg striker last year,

1205
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 3: but they bought in the January transfer window.

1206
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 1: Syria, Ah time b J Syria.

1207
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty simple here Monday afternoon to Reno plus one

1208
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: twenty five of course against can you guys.

1209
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 2: Guess is Dia playing? There's the oup.

1210
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 3: I don't know leaving.

1211
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 2: If he does, he's gonna miss.

1212
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 3: Potentially he's potentially gonna miss. And it was a huge

1213
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 3: loss for him when losing, the scuge loss for them

1214
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 3: when they went to Leche and just got absolutely destroyed.

1215
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 3: But they're doing it again. You know, Salmonitana has putting

1216
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 3: up just horrible expected goals numbers. You know, Da is

1217
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 3: obviously huge. Then they don't really have another striker like him.

1218
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 3: I don't really like laying plus one twenty five on

1219
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 3: the road, but I don't think that you know it.

1220
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 3: But by my projections, there really isn't much value in

1221
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 3: Italy this year. This uh this weekend. It's basically my

1222
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 3: my main two. It's just bet Roma and Fade Salernitana

1223
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:23,320
Speaker 3: is just what my numbers tell me every single week.

1224
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 3: If you follow in the app, I've parlayed Roma's more

1225
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 3: money line with Barcelona. Stop betting they stay, No, they don't.

1226
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 3: They're gonna win the Europa League. But uh yeah, no,

1227
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 3: I projected Torino at I think around minus one all five,

1228
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 3: uh so decent price on a Monday afternoon, plus one

1229
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 3: twenty five on them. They haven't really gotten going offensively

1230
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,400
Speaker 3: this year, but they're gonna face really really bad defense,

1231
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 3: so projection's value, So give me Trino.

1232
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 2: I want to give a quick story. Wasted Galazo on Twitter.

1233
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:55,920
Speaker 2: He's a soccer better does some good stuff with market

1234
00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 2: movement and player value. And uh he did a tweet

1235
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 2: the other day he said, who do you think in

1236
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: my model is the most valuable player to his team

1237
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 2: in the top five leagues. The answer in his model

1238
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,840
Speaker 2: was boul idea sounding Tana, which is pretty funny.

1239
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 1: Yep.

1240
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, it just shows you how he is. He

1241
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 2: maybe out on Monday.

1242
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 1: And Anthony, you you've got the Milan der Darby.

1243
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,440
Speaker 2: I like to stick in the big matches. But I

1244
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 2: think that both of these attacks. You know, Inter's attack

1245
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 2: was clearly downgraded in the market at the beginning of

1246
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 2: the season, but like they have picked up right where

1247
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: they left off and kind of dropped off the old

1248
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 2: immobile guys and become much more of a dynamic attack.

1249
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: As a result, they're not as slow and methodical you know,

1250
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 2: they take Brazovich out, they get more athletic, younger and

1251
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 2: more dynamic as a result, Like Taram has come in

1252
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 2: and been really good. Like this attack has taken a

1253
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: clear step forward for me in my numbers, and I

1254
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 2: think the same is true for a Cemalon in this matchup,

1255
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 2: because they have really bolstered the non leal parts of

1256
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 2: their attack with pool, a stick in Chiquez and loft

1257
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 2: his cheek as a progressive passer in there. So the system,

1258
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 2: you know, have this total at two and a half,

1259
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 2: the market has to total at two and a half.

1260
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 2: I just think it's a touch low. Like I get it,

1261
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:08,200
Speaker 2: you know, rivalry matchup, you know it's gonna be KG

1262
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 2: so to speak. But remember this matchup in the Champions League,

1263
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 2: Like Inter was running through them in the first twenty

1264
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 2: minutes and up two goals and then they just sat

1265
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 2: on it. You know, I think Milan has more attacking punch.

1266
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 2: Still have questions about this defense. This Milan defense is

1267
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: very young. They don't have their best defensive midfielder, so

1268
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 2: I think there's real questions about their defense. But I

1269
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: think both teams have pretty good attacks here. So over

1270
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 2: two and a half minus one fifteen for me.

1271
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: Okay, La Liga and legue bj anthey and I are passing,

1272
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 1: so this is all you?

1273
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Los Palmas plus one minus one thirty five against Sevilla. Sebia'

1274
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 3: spits so bad. They've been so bad in La Lega

1275
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 3: once again, three straight losses and the expected goals numbers

1276
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 3: are once again really really bad for them. And listen,

1277
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 3: they might just do this again where they just put

1278
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 3: all the value into the Champions League and eventually finished

1279
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 3: third in their group and then go to the Europa

1280
00:58:57,440 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 3: League and go on some crazy run again and then

1281
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 3: they just don't care about the La Liga, which creates

1282
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 3: a perfect opportunity here for us. But in what world

1283
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 3: should they be laying minus one sixty two against really

1284
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 3: anybody in Lall League right now? And Los Palmas, like

1285
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 3: I mentioned in the last podcast, was a plus point

1286
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,720
Speaker 3: seventy four actually differential for ninety in the second division

1287
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 3: last season. They put in a really good performance against

1288
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 3: Girona right before the break and just got beat on

1289
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 3: a late winner. But I mean, I have to be

1290
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 3: a closer to even money than laying a full goal

1291
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 3: at home. I mean, there's still some real problems with

1292
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 3: this team so lost Palmis plus one and then another

1293
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 3: Friday match PSG NIE under three and under three goals

1294
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 3: and minus one oh four. You know, the Luis en

1295
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 3: Rique PSG, Like we know with the Luis Rikz, they're

1296
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 3: going to hold a ton of possession so far FORUR matches,

1297
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:47,360
Speaker 3: seventy two percent possession for PSG, and like we mentioned,

1298
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 3: the Champions League. POD's what's good about this version of

1299
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 3: the PSG team is that their front three is actually

1300
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 3: going to do some defensive work. They're actually going to counterpress.

1301
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 3: They're not when they lose the ball, they're not just

1302
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:59,200
Speaker 3: going to, you know, just let the opponent have and

1303
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 3: just slink back to whatever type of you know, defensive

1304
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 3: shape that they were running under Galtier. They actually you know,

1305
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 3: with dem Ble and Colamani, they will actually be pressing.

1306
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 3: And then the bears out in the numbers so far

1307
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 3: pass per defensive action last season was eleven for PSG.

1308
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 3: This season it's eight point five, and they forced the

1309
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: most high turnovers of anybody in League one. But what

1310
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 3: we know about PSG is they value the Champions League

1311
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,919
Speaker 3: over anything else. So we could see some rotation here.

1312
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:29,200
Speaker 3: We could see Himbappe potentially get rested, which you know,

1313
01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 3: obviously would I believe deflate this total anise over the

1314
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 3: second half last season only allowed point nine to six

1315
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals. They're a very very good defensive

1316
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 3: block team, so I think we're gonna see a little

1317
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 3: bit of stalemate here, slow paced match with Enrique, so

1318
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 3: I like under three goals.

1319
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 1: Okay, Now on to our three leg money line underdog.

1320
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 1: A shout out to Lunetown they. I was really having

1321
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 1: a tough time to sign it between the one I

1322
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 1: went with and and them, But Antony, you can go first.

1323
01:00:56,440 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna take Bayern leverkuz In four to one

1324
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 2: Friday afternoon against Byron Munich. There's been some cracks in

1325
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 2: the armor. Kimmick potentially being out for them is a

1326
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 2: huge red flag because they don't have any depth really

1327
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 2: in their central midfield, and he is so good at

1328
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 2: ball retention and winning the ball and helping their transition defense.

1329
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 2: And Leverkusen with Vertz, with Frimpong and with Bony Foss

1330
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 2: are just so fun to watch and so good out

1331
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 2: of possession. Jobby Alonso's done a hell of a job.

1332
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 2: I think four to one's a little cheap on them.

1333
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 2: I understand Byron at home and now dominant they are.

1334
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 2: It's Bayern Munich blah blah blah. But Leverkusen is maybe

1335
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 2: trending upward and leveling up with their new striker.

1336
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 1: Easy one. Brentford five to one against Newcastle on the road.

1337
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 1: We talked about this now for two years. This team

1338
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 1: just punches up so well in these spots, counter tacking dynamo.

1339
01:01:43,560 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 1: Newcastle's showing some cracks in the armor as well. I

1340
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 1: would say out of the gates. Brentford doesn't look like

1341
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,960
Speaker 1: they're missing Ivan Tony too much. Just always trust Thomas

1342
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 1: Frank when the number gets this high. So Brentford baby

1343
01:01:55,800 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 1: back on the beat. Feels good, BJ And you're on

1344
01:01:58,040 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 1: an old faithful too here.

1345
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, Brighton plus two thirty against Manchester United. Like

1346
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:06,920
Speaker 3: we've already talked about, Manchester United is stuck between two

1347
01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 3: different tactical plans where they sometimes want to be a

1348
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 3: build up team and then other times ten Hoggs hays

1349
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:13,840
Speaker 3: we want to be the best transitional team in the world. Well,

1350
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 3: they're going through a ton of injuries right now that

1351
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 3: really hamper both abilities to be a transitional team and

1352
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,479
Speaker 3: a build up team. We could potentially see a Harry

1353
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 3: Maguire Victor lindeloff center back pairing. I Flsande Martinez is

1354
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:28,000
Speaker 3: out for this match, which is going to be very,

1355
01:02:28,080 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 3: very difficult defending a Brighton team that is averaging over

1356
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 3: two non penalty expected goals so far this season and

1357
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 3: a Brighton team that is a top five pressing team

1358
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 3: under Deserbe and United. They are not conditioned well enough

1359
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:41,439
Speaker 3: to hold on and stay with Brighton for a full

1360
01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. So far this season, they've conceied seven point

1361
01:02:44,640 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 3: one expected goals. Three point five of them have came

1362
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 3: in the seventy sixth minute or later. So Brighton will

1363
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:54,640
Speaker 3: continually keep coming at them. Deservee Ball will continually keep

1364
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 3: the build out of the keep building out of the

1365
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 3: back and coming at United. So the price on Brighton's

1366
01:02:59,880 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 3: two good give me them at plus two.

1367
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 1: Thirty Leverkusen Brighton Brentford. If you wrap them up in

1368
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 1: a money line Parlight's ninety eight to one. If you

1369
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 1: sprinkle Lootontown in there, five hundred and forty three to one.

1370
01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 2: I think it's the favorite one of the year.

1371
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, three, we have not have we haven't. We

1372
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 3: haven't hit one of these yet, so this this get

1373
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:21,480
Speaker 3: all the Russian back week we've had.

1374
01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 2: We've had a couple of two goal leads melt so

1375
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 2: we're doing yeah.

1376
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 1: So that brings us to our favorite bets in the

1377
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 1: Premier League.

1378
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 2: I'll go first.

1379
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: BJ just made the case for Brighton and I'm echoing it.

1380
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 1: I like Brighton on the money line at Manchester United.

1381
01:03:34,360 --> 01:03:39,280
Speaker 1: This offense will just give United plenty of trouble even

1382
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 1: at the Theater of Dreams. So I like to match

1383
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: up here for Brighton at two to one, are better, Anthony?

1384
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 1: What do you got ya?

1385
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 2: Everton plus one Toffees, baby, I think it's Look I

1386
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 2: bet Arsenal last week. I felt sick the whole match.

1387
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 3: You've gotta feel safe.

1388
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 2: Scored a late winner in diabolical fashion to cash the ticket. Uh.

1389
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:01,680
Speaker 2: The market has moved toward them in next week's North

1390
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: London Darby, but.

1391
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:05,160
Speaker 1: It's because who in their right mind would bet Everton.

1392
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 2: Well, I'm talking about next week, but also this week.

1393
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 2: The market, you know, plus one on Everton and even

1394
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,800
Speaker 2: money is a little bit lower than I think it

1395
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 2: should be. So I'm gonna take the.

1396
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:18,439
Speaker 1: Toughees sounds terrible, Bjay it is. What do you got?

1397
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 3: Yeah? How about back to the Brighton man United get

1398
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 3: a little different bet over three and a half goals

1399
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 3: a plus one twenty. You know, like I've already mentioned

1400
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 3: with the Brighton offense how good they've been on Desserbie

1401
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 3: defense has actually been really really bad. They haven't faced

1402
01:04:31,080 --> 01:04:34,400
Speaker 3: the most difficult run of teams here and they've conceded

1403
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,560
Speaker 3: eight big scoring chances, are allowing a one point seventy

1404
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,120
Speaker 3: five non penalty expected goals for match, and really what

1405
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 3: it boils down to for Brighton is, yes, they are

1406
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 3: a good pressing team, but they really miss Levi co

1407
01:04:43,920 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 3: Well pairing alongside Lewis Dunk. They really haven't found a

1408
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:48,800
Speaker 3: good center back pairing to go along with him and

1409
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 3: playing that left center back role that guy has just

1410
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 3: continue Whoever they were rotating in there has continually gotten

1411
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 3: cooked time and time again. So United, who again wants

1412
01:04:57,640 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 3: to become the best transitional team in the world. If

1413
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 3: they want to play transition here, they could find some

1414
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,480
Speaker 3: space here against a Brighton team that just hasn't been

1415
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 3: closing down the ball as well as they have in

1416
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 3: the past. So Brighton Manchester United over three and a

1417
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 3: half projected three point seventy nine goals for this one,

1418
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 3: so a ton of value on over three and a

1419
01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 3: half and plus one twenty for.

1420
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:17,600
Speaker 1: Me, What a fun show it's been. What a fun,

1421
01:05:17,640 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 1: fun show it's been. And the good news is we

1422
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:23,040
Speaker 1: will be back for another fun one pretty quickly here

1423
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 1: as we get started at the Champions League. So Monday

1424
01:05:26,000 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 1: morning on this feed you will hear our first Champions

1425
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 1: League match preview as we go over Tuesday and Wednesdays matches,

1426
01:05:34,400 --> 01:05:37,000
Speaker 1: and that just means we're in the thick of it. Boys,

1427
01:05:37,240 --> 01:05:40,280
Speaker 1: we are right back in the thick of a soccer season.

1428
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 1: It will be relentless from this point forward, but hopefully

1429
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:46,560
Speaker 1: this three leg underdog catches maybe even the four lagger

1430
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 1: with Luton for Anthony Dubundo, Beja Cunningham, I'm Michael leap Up.

1431
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 1: Thank you again for listening. Thank you to our sponsor's

1432
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 1: bat three sixty five. Please rate, review and subscribe to

1433
01:05:57,280 --> 01:06:02,120
Speaker 1: Wonder Goal and the other Action Network podcast and that

1434
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 1: would just make our producers happy and speaking which we

1435
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 1: also tip our caps to our producer Noah and our

1436
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:11,360
Speaker 1: director of sound Matt Mitchell have a great weekend.

1437
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 2: Everybody Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1438
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1439
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1440
01:06:28,800 --> 01:06:29,280
Speaker 2: Gambler