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Speaker 2: instant reaction. We have all sorts of stuff I'm gonna
Speaker 2: give you about twelve to fifteen minutes on the Rams Niners,
Speaker 2: and some Belichick thoughts something was uncovered tonight. That's fascinating.
Speaker 2: Chad Millman, Sharper Square. We're gonna also talk Belichick and UFOs.
Speaker 3: You know why not.
Speaker 2: So the Rams beat the forty nine ers twelve to six.
Speaker 2: So the first thing is I did I stayed away
Speaker 2: from this game. I wouldn't touch it. I could have
Speaker 2: done a DraftKings bet, I said, I there's too many injuries, weather,
Speaker 2: it's shaky, and the Rams just played a flawless football
Speaker 2: game against Buffalo. Then you got to get on a
Speaker 2: plane Wednesday, flight to arrival division game like added no what?
Speaker 2: I just I knew the Rams were gonna be off.
Speaker 2: You cannot play a game against a team like Buffalo,
Speaker 2: a high stakes game and be flawless, even with men.
Speaker 2: This isn't college. But to go on the road against
Speaker 2: your rival Green Laws back Bosa played. So they won
Speaker 2: and you have to be healthy. But they won and
Speaker 2: you have to be happy. But here's the thing. So
Speaker 2: all these wide receivers, do you know Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase,
Speaker 2: and Deebo Samuel's record this year seventeen and twenty three.
Speaker 2: Top five rushing teams are all right now in the playoffs,
Speaker 2: you gotta be careful with DIVA wide receivers. Deebo wants
Speaker 2: the ball. Oh Debo can't catch the ball tonight on
Speaker 2: an underneath route where he had a chance to peel
Speaker 2: off a huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled
Speaker 2: for a field goal. You could clearly see the Niners
Speaker 2: trying to appease Debo and get in the ball and
Speaker 2: force it. I like him better as a running back
Speaker 2: then a receiver anyway. I think his yards after the
Speaker 2: catch and his running ability is much greater than his
Speaker 2: separation ability. I think he's become sort of a banged
Speaker 2: up poor man's and Kwon Bolden that you know doesn't separate.
Speaker 2: But he's physically tough and a nice player. But this
Speaker 2: is so you have young brock Purdy, you know, doesn't
Speaker 2: want to lose Debo. Ayyuk's already out for the year.
Speaker 2: Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Deebo picks the worst
Speaker 2: time to, you know, be high maintenance because you know
Speaker 2: pretty's young. He doesn't have Ayyuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous,
Speaker 2: but a lot of teams now are taking him out
Speaker 2: and spending a lot of coverage on him. So they
Speaker 2: forced a debo and this is what you get. Biggest
Speaker 2: game of the year for the Niners, one hundred and
Speaker 2: ninety seven total yards. You know it, brock pretty in
Speaker 2: thirteen starts. Everybody talks about him getting paid big money.
Speaker 2: It's a big mistake. I don't buy it.
Speaker 3: I never have.
Speaker 2: Doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in thirteen
Speaker 2: starts this year, fifteen touchdowns, nine picks, and you want
Speaker 2: to pay him fifty five million dollars the minute you
Speaker 2: take away his best players.
Speaker 3: He is a guy.
Speaker 2: He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft. You know,
Speaker 2: during Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find
Speaker 2: occasional sleepers, but scouting departments now are much more sophisticated.
Speaker 2: You know, in Brady's era, you didn't have all the
Speaker 2: YouTube stuff. You didn't have the ability to see some
Speaker 2: of these college games. They're all on television. Now, it's
Speaker 2: just really hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger, Scouting
Speaker 2: departments are bigger. There's just more sophistication. You know, Rock
Speaker 2: Purty dropped to the seventh round. He's small, he doesn't
Speaker 2: have a big arm. He's athletic but not special. Hands
Speaker 2: are a bit small, you know, And you're watching a
Speaker 2: guy that when you lose people, what do you get?
Speaker 2: And conversely, tonight, Matt Stafford very very rough first half.
Speaker 2: I mean it was like the Niners defense had the
Speaker 2: Rams playbook.
Speaker 3: They knew where he was. He was just trying to
Speaker 3: beg in to throw an interception.
Speaker 2: And yet he showed exactly why he's a real franchise
Speaker 2: player on those big drives late third, early fourth quarter,
Speaker 2: using his feet two or three times ducking out of stuff,
Speaker 2: really big third down throw.
Speaker 3: I wrote this.
Speaker 2: Big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late whereas pretty
Speaker 2: previously in the fourth quarter had a really really ugly
Speaker 2: end zone pick. You saw the real separation here Rams,
Speaker 2: short week of a highly emotional game on the road
Speaker 2: division rival. Neither team has their fastball. Stafford in the
Speaker 2: second half after a shaky first really made all the
Speaker 2: big throws. And because the coaches are both great, the
Speaker 2: offensive lines are good, not great, And that's the separation
Speaker 2: between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this two big
Speaker 2: drives Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game.
Speaker 2: And you know, people, people think I'm anti Purty no,
Speaker 2: but somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense.
Speaker 2: I think Pretty is a less athletic Dak. Now, Dak
Speaker 2: after a second surgery here is going to be even
Speaker 2: less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll
Speaker 2: be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2: You're saying what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger,
Speaker 2: but he won't be the same. And this is what
Speaker 2: holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A
Speaker 2: plus money. If you pay Pretty A minus money, he's
Speaker 2: a he's a B quarterback. You just still want to
Speaker 2: get into that space. Pittsburg will probably pay Russell Wilson.
Speaker 2: They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could
Speaker 2: be franchise tag for forty million, forty one million, but
Speaker 2: that's B quarterback money. And I've said this, I wrote
Speaker 2: the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't
Speaker 2: think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak.
Speaker 3: I think I.
Speaker 2: Both Ayuk and Deebo are now pretty verbal. Don't neither
Speaker 2: seems terribly happy. Kittle's horrific, but he's a tight end.
Speaker 3: He is aging.
Speaker 2: Trent Williams doesn't have much left on the tires, so
Speaker 2: I think they have to rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely,
Speaker 2: the Rams are really well coached. I said, outside of
Speaker 2: the Lions, I'm not sure there's a team in the
Speaker 2: league that has a better offensive head coach, quarterback, star
Speaker 2: running back, and two elite receivers. And they're doing it
Speaker 2: without Tyler higgsby their top tight end, who is coming
Speaker 2: back soon.
Speaker 3: So is the Rams.
Speaker 2: Offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month. Stafford's
Speaker 2: been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection.
Speaker 2: Now they're getting their tight end back to go along
Speaker 2: with Colby Parkinson and David Allen, So all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: now the Rams are healthy down the stretch, and I
Speaker 2: think they can play with anybody.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: They're defense, they're a little like the Packers. They feel
Speaker 2: like they're a tad young. The Packers are young on offense.
Speaker 2: The Rams feel a little young on defense, and they
Speaker 2: still need a number one corner in the draft. But
Speaker 2: this is a real RAMS team, and I think they
Speaker 2: solidified their playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league, and
Speaker 2: nothing against Shanahan, but he's got pretty and Stafford and
Speaker 2: McVeigh are another level. So congratulations. So I want to
Speaker 2: add this because this came down tonight. So Chad Melbourne
Speaker 2: and I talks in Belichick, but I didn't have this information.
Speaker 2: So I made the prediction today on FS one. I said,
Speaker 2: my take is Bill Belichick, easy schedule Carolina. It's going
Speaker 2: to win eight or nine games and maybe get to
Speaker 2: the playoff, but get to a big Bowl. But I
Speaker 2: don't necessarily think he'll coach in that bowl. I think
Speaker 2: Belichick is going to get irritated. His coaching and his
Speaker 2: structure and the personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine.
Speaker 2: I don't think those guys are long term fits at
Speaker 2: the college level. They've got a very Charlie weissfield but
Speaker 2: even more blunt, and Belichick's got so much power, and
Speaker 2: because Lombardi's friend, Lombardi's got power, I think they'll it
Speaker 2: could be pretty rough. They're pretty terse, blunt, you know,
Speaker 2: outspoken guys, both very very talented. I know Mike Lombardi
Speaker 2: is very talented guy, and I wish him both well.
Speaker 2: But it comes out tonight. Belichick steal has a buyout
Speaker 2: of only one million dollars and he can leave after
Speaker 2: June first this year. Now, he's not going to duh
Speaker 2: and nobody hires a coach after June first, obviously, But
Speaker 2: I said today, I think he's going to coach one
Speaker 2: year and go back and get an offer in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And I think he's going to hand it over to
Speaker 2: his son. So there's some things that will come out
Speaker 2: in the contract. And I do think Bill wanted the
Speaker 2: Bear's job. They're not interested. I think he's really interested
Speaker 2: in the Jacksonville job.
Speaker 3: They're not interested. Mike Rabel.
Speaker 2: By the way, and I talked to Mike Brabel for
Speaker 2: about fifteen minutes this morning, and I'm not gonna give
Speaker 2: a lot of details of that, but you know, one
Speaker 2: of the things I told Mike, I said, you're now
Speaker 2: the number one candidate. I'm just not sure there are
Speaker 2: any jobs worthy of your coaching ability. I think next
Speaker 2: year is a much more interesting year. If you look
Speaker 2: at Zach Taylor Cincinnati, I think he'll retain his job.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if he'll retain it. If the Bengals
Speaker 2: have another season like this, keep your eye on that.
Speaker 2: I think Mike McCarthy will keep his job potentially, and
Speaker 2: so will Brian Dable. But both the Giants with a
Speaker 2: Shador Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys could have openings.
Speaker 2: I think the openings this year too many impulsive odd
Speaker 2: ownership executive areas Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But Belichick say it again.
Speaker 2: I said it on the air today. I think he'll
Speaker 2: stay one year in Bolt his contract. He could bolt
Speaker 2: after June first this year. He's not going to. But
Speaker 2: my prediction he'll leave after one year. And Bill parcell'shwist
Speaker 2: did broadcasting Bolted, told people I'm going to stay at Bolted.
Speaker 2: Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed for a year, loved it.
Speaker 2: I mean, Sean really loved working as an analyst. He
Speaker 2: left Bill Belichick's coach, and I do think he'll I mean,
Speaker 2: I saw and talked at length today about the schedule
Speaker 2: at North Carolina.
Speaker 3: The a SEC is so bad. I mean it's he.
Speaker 2: Gets Clemson at home. There's not another game that he
Speaker 2: can't win. Syracuse on the road could be little dicey,
Speaker 2: but so it's just interesting. In order for that to
Speaker 2: be in the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was
Speaker 2: in the contract because, as I told you, Jimmy Sexton,
Speaker 2: the top agent in college football, he's not sending his
Speaker 2: top clients there. And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton.
Speaker 3: So this is not.
Speaker 2: A very highly coveted job because the push and pull
Speaker 2: between kind of academics and football. The chancellor, I think
Speaker 2: it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant,
Speaker 2: but it's had some good years with mac Brown the
Speaker 2: first time and mac Brown the second time. But to
Speaker 2: get that in the contract, you wanted it in the
Speaker 2: contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay, I've
Speaker 2: never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could
Speaker 2: leave basically after June first, and again he's not leading
Speaker 2: this year. That's never what I said, but I do
Speaker 2: my prediction he will leave after one year. He would
Speaker 2: deny that, obviously, But college football is I mean, you're
Speaker 2: seeing on a weekly basis guys that love college football,
Speaker 2: young coaches talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack
Speaker 2: of regulations, and the nil is. I still contend the
Speaker 2: nil should have about an eighteen million dollars salary cap.
Speaker 2: NFL's got one. Otherwise you're going to get a separation
Speaker 2: of Texas ban forty million and spending three I just
Speaker 2: it will be. It will be, you know, even the
Speaker 2: disparity between the top and the bottom will be even
Speaker 2: greater than it is now.
Speaker 3: And it's pretty great.
Speaker 2: Now Belichick's deal that is a very interesting clause, one
Speaker 2: that he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it,
Speaker 2: and one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is
Speaker 2: telling you, hey, just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity,
Speaker 2: elevating our nil from four million to eighteen to twenty million,
Speaker 2: adding a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it,
Speaker 2: We need that. The world's changing and we're not ready
Speaker 2: for it. And if you're willing in one year, give
Speaker 2: us at least one full year. And I think even
Speaker 2: though that's in the contract, I think it's understood. Bill
Speaker 2: wouldn't bold June second, nobody's hiring coaches. Then well, it's
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Speaker 2: John Middlecoff, former NFL scout with the Philadelphia Eagles, has
Speaker 2: a three and Out podcast. Josh Allen first player in
Speaker 2: the history of the sport as a quarterback to have
Speaker 2: three rushing and three passing touchdowns in the same game.
Speaker 2: If you did not see this game, it may be
Speaker 2: the single greatest I don't think I've ever seen a
Speaker 2: moment of a player caring a franchise. The secondary for
Speaker 2: the Bills was banged up and torched. They came in
Speaker 2: with no juice. He single handedly kept them in the
Speaker 2: game with running play and not just casual running plays,
Speaker 2: not six eight yards like twenty five thirty five forty
Speaker 2: yard running plays. I mean, Mahomes has all the trophies.
Speaker 2: Mahomes is not his talent that as Josh Allen. Josh
Speaker 2: Allen's insane and I thought this was a you know,
Speaker 2: Pukas had injury issues, so is Cooper Cup and they're
Speaker 2: going to draft a receiver. I'm pretty strongly a believer
Speaker 2: of that, but it shows you why the Rams are
Speaker 2: now seven and six and with Arizona fumbling, Francisco feels
Speaker 2: big win today for them, but it feels like they're
Speaker 2: just a little disjointed. If the Rams sneak into the playoffs,
Speaker 2: John watch out, because I would have no interest plan
Speaker 2: this team.
Speaker 1: Well, to me, Thursday night they played the Niners, so
Speaker 1: they could kind of end the Niner season, right, they
Speaker 1: could end the Niner season. They would be eight and
Speaker 1: six and they would be in position Seattle. If Mike
Speaker 1: McDonald was an offensive coach, we'd be talking about him
Speaker 1: like a mcvea or Shanahan. But he coaches defense. He's
Speaker 1: done a fantastic job. But this is must win for
Speaker 1: really the Niners, you know, aren't really alive, and they
Speaker 1: lost another player today. At the end of the game.
Speaker 1: They're running back got hurts and now they're on their
Speaker 1: seventh running back. But the Rams. This goes back to
Speaker 1: last year when Pooka plays like this he had twelve
Speaker 1: for one p sixty. He becomes, you know, essentially, he
Speaker 1: becomes like a Marvin Harrison or a Chris Carter or
Speaker 1: a you know, justin he becomes an unstoppable force. They
Speaker 1: are tough to beat. Because I was texting with some
Speaker 1: buddies this week, Jared Verse and Fisk are so good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, those two draft picks.
Speaker 1: Are immediately people around the league they're violent because He's like,
Speaker 1: let's texta with the buddy who's like, you know, their
Speaker 1: talent on defense isn't that great, but their defensive line
Speaker 1: is violent. Actually starts with those two guys. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: a lot of people thought like, is Fisk a little
Speaker 1: bit of an overdraft? You know Verse? Will his power translate?
Speaker 1: It's translated. Yeah, those two guys are ass kickers. To me,
Speaker 1: it's all about Puka, who they had to wrap at
Speaker 1: the end of the game. Now he came back in
Speaker 1: something to monitor now short week. But the other thing
Speaker 1: and you hit on it. We have a lot of
Speaker 1: these arguments, I think on social media and when we
Speaker 1: talk about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I understand Lamar
Speaker 1: has a couple MVPs. Now, last year's MVP was not
Speaker 1: a great MVP season, Like if you look at his numbers,
Speaker 1: he had a much better season than nineteen. Statistically, up
Speaker 1: until a couple of weeks ago, he was blowing that
Speaker 1: season away. This year, Josh Allen is one of the
Speaker 1: best players in any I've ever watched. Yes, Like, how
Speaker 1: are we arguing when we watched this guy plug?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Does he throw a couple?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 2: So did for By the way, thing about he is
Speaker 2: to me Otani, he is different than the other great
Speaker 2: players like Otani. Mookie Betts is amazing, but he looks
Speaker 2: small compared to Otani because he is. I mean, it
Speaker 2: has an o'tanni feel like while you may be watching,
Speaker 2: you may be watching the greatest talent ever. I mean,
Speaker 2: John Elway ran, He didn't do this. John Elway was strong.
Speaker 2: He wasn't this. John Alway had a good arm. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure it was this. Like and again we all
Speaker 2: acknowledge Mahomes, but Mahomes has read a great ownership. I mean,
Speaker 2: everything is Patrick's terrific. But what I watched today, I mean,
Speaker 2: just here's the thing I worry about with Buffalo. Kansas
Speaker 2: City never delivers that Kansas City when they show up
Speaker 2: with no juice. Now, this did happen early in mahomes career.
Speaker 2: They'd fall behind twenty four to ten and you'd be like,
Speaker 2: oh my god. But in the last three years, Kansas
Speaker 2: City does not do this. You can beat him, you
Speaker 2: can beat them at Arrowhead, but they rarely come with
Speaker 2: no juice. And that's a team with two trophies. Buffalo
Speaker 2: doesn't have one, and it worries me at times. Like
Speaker 2: the first half was twenty four to fourteen. The Rams
Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted to. Kyron Williams ran pooker cup.
Speaker 2: I mean, they just did whatever they wanted to do.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's like eight man football for Buffalo. It's like,
Speaker 2: is anybody guarding the receivers? That does trouble me. They
Speaker 2: were on about a four or five week run where
Speaker 2: I had not seen this, But don't they give you
Speaker 2: this about four times a year?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they've been doing it now for a couple
Speaker 1: of years. But then they bounced back. You know, next
Speaker 1: week they're playing Detroit, who still I would imagine, even
Speaker 1: with the mini by still gonna have a bunch of injuries.
Speaker 1: Like that's a pretty big moment for Buffalo because Colin
Speaker 1: they finished with Patriots, Jets Patriots, so they should be
Speaker 1: able to sleep walk to go three and zero down
Speaker 1: the stretch. But what off to see. You know, Kansas
Speaker 1: City still got a couple of tough games. Every game
Speaker 1: they play is close. I don't think this totally kills
Speaker 1: Buffalo from the number one seed, because if you look
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh's last four games, it's like Philly.
Speaker 3: Baltimore, Oh brutal, They tough.
Speaker 1: They got a tough schedule. So to me, Buffalo, their
Speaker 1: schedule eases up. And I think we're gonna learn a
Speaker 1: lot about them with Detroit because we already know about
Speaker 1: Detroit right their competitive character, their makeup. You could never
Speaker 1: write them off for they could be thrown me and
Speaker 1: you out there on defense. But today was the first
Speaker 1: half was embarrassing for Buffalo. That can't happen if you
Speaker 1: want to win a super Bowl. And then they're not
Speaker 1: even when healthy, are talented enough to just cruise by.
Speaker 1: Right now, defense is not list loaded with names on
Speaker 1: the back end.
Speaker 2: Once you pay your star quarterback. Kansas City has offensive
Speaker 2: tackle issues. They're still trying to figure out. Frankly, their
Speaker 2: receiving corps. They're not as good at corner as they
Speaker 2: were last year. Like it's there once you pay the quarterback,
Speaker 2: you're I mean, right now, Baltimore's back end, Joe Burrows
Speaker 2: defense is atrocious. If you look at Stafford, let's be
Speaker 2: honest about it. The offensive line, it feels like they're
Speaker 2: playing catchup with the Rams the last several years. They
Speaker 2: don't pay a single person right now on the defensive side.
Speaker 2: They can't afford to, So I just I think it
Speaker 2: really that's why coaching and quarterback play john is so
Speaker 2: essential in January, December and early February. There are no
Speaker 2: perfect teams. They're just you can't in the transfer portal,
Speaker 2: by the way, has done this to college football in
Speaker 2: the NIL. The minute you think you're loaded, you lose all.
Speaker 2: Like in Ohio State can't carry three great tackles because
Speaker 2: somebody poaches the best tackle they have. That's not starting.
Speaker 2: So like in college football, the unintended benefit of the
Speaker 2: transfer portal in ANIL is there's no more Alabama's.
Speaker 3: That's over.
Speaker 2: Like there's just too many teams here. And when I
Speaker 2: watch the NFL, you're like, quarterback play in coaching obviously matters,
Speaker 2: but there are coaching becomes essential because I mean, you
Speaker 2: watch Buffalo in the back end today, Baltimore's back end, Jesus,
Speaker 2: it's those are bad secondaries. Vikings forty two, Atlanta twenty one,
Speaker 2: good first half, and then Minnesota took over. I push
Speaker 2: back when you suggested that Minnesota may have to re
Speaker 2: sign Sam Darnold. First of all, he's going to have
Speaker 2: a very tasty free agent market. Vegas, Giants, Tennessee minimum
Speaker 2: are gonna at least look at it. If they don't
Speaker 2: like Cam Wore, Shador Sanders will go number one to
Speaker 2: either Vegas or the Giants. I think he will not.
Speaker 2: Everybody's gonna like Cam Moore. But if you look in
Speaker 2: the last month, Darnald has eleven tds no picks. This
Speaker 2: receiving corps plus TJ. Hawkinson, Jefferson and Addison had five
Speaker 2: touchdowns today. We got to be honest about this. In
Speaker 2: the history of the league, you could put him in
Speaker 2: a very rich Gannon class. Like nobody believes in him too.
Speaker 2: He's a top three quarterback, top four quarterback in the
Speaker 2: league playing right now. I'm watching Donald make plays today,
Speaker 2: and our thing was, I think we both felt the
Speaker 2: same big, strong, athletic, coachable, tough kid, but his accuracy
Speaker 2: could be hit and miss. Wellan O'Connell's taking the reckless
Speaker 2: out and elevated. You know, he's made it very intentional.
Speaker 2: Sam goes back to pass, you get a very intentional play.
Speaker 2: And if he has to add lib, which he did today,
Speaker 2: he's fantastic. He not Lamar or Josh, but he is
Speaker 2: way high end in this league.
Speaker 5: He is.
Speaker 3: He is in the Justin Herbert class.
Speaker 2: Like I'm gonna move and I'm gonna crank it, and
Speaker 2: I never thought this. He's had one stinker all year.
Speaker 2: He had three, a couple of picks against the Jags.
Speaker 2: They won that game. Remember that game down in Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: They were terrible in the red zone, So his stinker
Speaker 2: they won. They could still be a number one seed.
Speaker 2: I think I'm sitting here thinking today, do you let
Speaker 2: him walk out of the building.
Speaker 1: I think at minimum, right now he's in the category
Speaker 1: if you don't want to do the long term you
Speaker 1: gotta franchise him right now. The problem with franchising it's
Speaker 1: forty one million dollars for a quarterback, and unlike these contracts,
Speaker 1: you don't get to push any of that off on
Speaker 1: you know, you know years in the future. He has
Speaker 1: twenty eight touchdowns right now, Colin, they have four games left.
Speaker 1: He has twenty eight touchdowns and they were eleven and two.
Speaker 1: The one player you're we're alluding to when he scrambled around,
Speaker 1: he kind of did three sixty, went across, threw it
Speaker 1: to Jefferson across his body. I got that looked like
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Yeah, and that was a play today. If
Speaker 1: you are the GM and the head coach, you go.
Speaker 1: This is exactly why we said Kirk Cousins were not
Speaker 1: in the market for you anymore because you don't one
Speaker 1: you've never had that in the bag. But the version
Speaker 1: that we're seeing out of Cousins, Cousins just got one
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars guaranteed. He hasn't thrown a touchdown in
Speaker 1: four weeks, and he's throwing picks just by the you know,
Speaker 1: multiple picks every game. I mean, he might be cooked.
Speaker 1: Like you saw today was a pivot point. One guy's
Speaker 1: career feels like it's kind of headed toward the drain,
Speaker 1: like is he even gonna be starting next week? And
Speaker 1: the other guy is exploding. And he used rich Gannon
Speaker 1: as your example. Rich Gannon did not have this level arm.
Speaker 1: Rich Gannon did not. That was the knock on rich
Speaker 1: While a lot of people back in the day were like,
Speaker 1: you know, it was hard for Gruden to sell Al
Speaker 1: Davis on Rich because he liked those big arm quarterbacks
Speaker 1: and that wasn't Rich, but Rich was really accurate. Sam
Speaker 1: Darnold sixty eight percent this season, Colin, Now listen, he's
Speaker 1: gonna turn the ball over a little bit. He's got
Speaker 1: ten bucks, probably end up with thirteen and fourteen. How
Speaker 1: often do you watch him and you see him explode
Speaker 1: the ball down the field. Well, now that they're left
Speaker 1: tackles injured, the best two players on the vikings are
Speaker 1: the two White House. So those guys are thriving under Sam.
Speaker 1: How could you I've said before Today is a great example.
Speaker 1: He threw five touchdowns against a team with a lot
Speaker 1: of good defensive secondary pieces. Yeah, in your wildest dreams,
Speaker 1: you would desire JJ to become this player one day,
Speaker 1: to be that good. What we witnessed today, and the
Speaker 1: chances based on the history of we all watching the
Speaker 1: NFL and knowing how hard this league is, it's less
Speaker 1: than fifty percent. He's ever that good. Well, Sam currently
Speaker 1: is this good and now has this I would say,
Speaker 1: you know, resume of life in the league of building
Speaker 1: on callouses going through adversity, being very confident in himself,
Speaker 1: but having humility to know how hard it is. Like
Speaker 1: he's seen it all. He has seen the worst of
Speaker 1: the worst. And then with Kyle and now Kevin O'Connell,
Speaker 1: I understand that they drafted a quarterback, but sometimes things change. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean the forty nine ers drafted Trey Lance and
Speaker 1: they pivoted in the blink of an eye to Purt. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and sometimes you just that's isn't that part you started
Speaker 1: the volume like pivot fast? Right? I mean, you know
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, So what he's gonna cost you a lot
Speaker 1: of money if he's a top five or six quarterback
Speaker 1: in the NFC. I mean this, Well, how many NFC
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are better than him? He's better than Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 2: Well, we're talking about Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield had a
Speaker 2: good quarter today, but was awful for long stretches in
Speaker 2: the game, awful.
Speaker 3: Genos Smith returnovers. Yeah, Baker was awful.
Speaker 2: And that by the way, And I've tried to be
Speaker 2: very positive with Baker because I was so rough on
Speaker 2: him early. But he can be really reckless and he
Speaker 2: you can't coach that out of him. He's just a
Speaker 2: different personality. He literally lives for chip on his shoulder.
Speaker 2: Sam doesn't have that. Sam's not trying to prove anything
Speaker 2: other than I'm good. Sam's like a beach boy. He's
Speaker 2: having a good time. He's an ocean side, you know,
Speaker 2: linebacker basketball, He's an athlete. He's a great kid. Baker's
Speaker 2: got that chip a mile along. Baker's battled his own
Speaker 2: family at times. It's part of his great fabric and
Speaker 2: his story. I love, but Geno Smith, there's limitations. Baker
Speaker 2: is reckless. Donald, You're getting a higher upside with I mean,
Speaker 2: I always thought Baker was a better pure pocket passer.
Speaker 2: This year, I'm not sure. And some of it's justin Jefferson,
Speaker 2: But it's not like Mike Evans and Chris Godwhen and
Speaker 2: the guys down there are bad either. I just think
Speaker 2: letting him walk out the door, what if he goes
Speaker 2: to an NFC team?
Speaker 1: To me, though, you know, use Baker as a good example.
Speaker 1: Aren't we all all a little bit of product of
Speaker 1: our past? I mean, Baker was a walk on at
Speaker 1: Texas Tech at six feet fall. Yeah, Sam Donald six
Speaker 1: foot four at USC you know, in the in the
Speaker 1: most turmoil time in the history of the program leads
Speaker 1: him to eleven plus wins. I mean, in the ugliness
Speaker 1: of the mid twenty tens, he's a strapping, big arm
Speaker 1: like he's a confidence.
Speaker 2: He won a Rose Bowl against a good Penn State
Speaker 2: team with a really bad college football coach and no
Speaker 2: pros around him. I mean, you go back to that
Speaker 2: year and it was hero ball, that's all it was.
Speaker 1: I'm pro Baker, and he's really matured and he's become
Speaker 1: a good player. But the skill set of the two,
Speaker 1: Sam is the more dynamic player. Yeah, looking back, like
Speaker 1: if you did a redraft, yeah, I think both of
Speaker 1: them probably aren't going one to three, but clearly they've
Speaker 1: lived up to like they're going to play in the
Speaker 1: league for a long time. Sam's high end is higher
Speaker 1: than Baker because his mobility bigger, and I just think
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear you watch Sam, He's got an explosive
Speaker 1: arm and on the move he can really sling it.
Speaker 1: And that's the playmaking Minnesota what limited in the last
Speaker 1: limited that team the last couple of years. You know,
Speaker 1: Cousins was a stagnant can't move if you throw them
Speaker 1: off the spot. Sales on face got ad lib. No problem.
Speaker 2: Let's rip all right, let's talk college football. The twelve
Speaker 2: team playoff has come out. Listen, let's get the one
Speaker 2: thing out of the way. I think Bama's better than SMU,
Speaker 2: but BAMA doesn't have an argument. I watched them get
Speaker 2: completely shelled against a Oklahoma team that was two and
Speaker 2: six in conference with like a minus seventy nine point
Speaker 2: differential in conference. Oklahoma was a bad team and they
Speaker 2: got I mean literally agree over run by them. So
Speaker 2: I don't have any problem again that regular season has
Speaker 2: to mean something. Yes, Bama's beaten more good teams. If
Speaker 2: BAMA got in, I wouldn't lose any sleep if SMU
Speaker 2: did not. But I felt the same way both ways.
Speaker 2: I would have taken probably a Bama, but SMU after
Speaker 2: a really hard fought.
Speaker 3: Loss kind of felt like the move.
Speaker 2: And I also think, listen, Bama's not consistent enough to
Speaker 2: be a national champion. SMU is not going to be
Speaker 2: a Nashtional champion. SMU may be a better story, it's
Speaker 2: better for the sport big picture. I don't think anybody
Speaker 2: on the heels of Alabama's you know, fifteen year dynasty
Speaker 2: is losing sleep because they don't get in.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree, but if I was part of the SEC,
Speaker 1: here's what I would say. College football, I mean, based
Speaker 1: on the numbers, has never been more popular, like more
Speaker 1: people consistently have never watched more and the SEC ratings
Speaker 1: have been insane. So we are carrying the popularity of
Speaker 1: this sport as a conference and have carried the sport
Speaker 1: really for a long time now. And we only get
Speaker 1: three teams in. That's where you can just see them,
Speaker 1: even if it is justified as it is in this situation,
Speaker 1: all these teams Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. If any
Speaker 1: of these SEC teams is ten and two, they are
Speaker 1: easily in over SMU. We all agree, but like we
Speaker 1: want guarantees. And this is where I think college football
Speaker 1: is going to go. If if I'm the Big ten
Speaker 1: who like the SEC is carrying college football with the ratings,
Speaker 1: the ACC is simply not like I want to know,
Speaker 1: because getting into the playoffs is very financial viable for
Speaker 1: the conference. Right. That's the same thing with the NCAA tournament,
Speaker 1: and now we only get we only get one difference,
Speaker 1: like the difference of us in the SEC is and
Speaker 1: the ACC is one team that seems crazy. I watch
Speaker 1: an unhealthy amount of college football. The gap between the
Speaker 1: two conferences huge. It's Grand Canyon wide. So even if
Speaker 1: you could justify it records and everything, that's a big
Speaker 1: picture problem for me. If i'm Greg Sank, yeah, we
Speaker 1: need some assurances. And this is where like the NFL,
Speaker 1: you know, what do tiebreakers go conference record? It's impossible
Speaker 1: to do tiebreakers and everything in college football because the
Speaker 1: SEC goes my eight and four? What is that worth
Speaker 1: in the in the ACC? And I ten and two
Speaker 1: in the ACC? Like by Big twelve. Arizona State's an
Speaker 1: incredible story. What would their record be if I put
Speaker 1: them playing LSU, Bama, Ole, Miss Arkansas? You know, So
Speaker 1: it's it's not apples d apples at all.
Speaker 3: That's right, And that's the hard part.
Speaker 1: I think we all agree on that, even if we go, yeah,
Speaker 1: SMU deserves it, but it's like it's a little out
Speaker 1: of whack. Now it's first year. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: complain that much. I don't feel that bad. And I
Speaker 1: think the committee wanted Alabama because I do think Alabama.
Speaker 1: The needle moves a little more when you got Alabama playing,
Speaker 1: because who's SMU is playing Penn State, Like, yeah, Alabama,
Speaker 1: Penn State just a matter television product, is it?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: So here's the one that really cracked me up. So
Speaker 2: the regular season. The committee said, the regular season matters.
Speaker 2: We're not going to give Bama three losses, two of
Speaker 2: which are Mulligan's, Vandy and Oklahoma. But yet in Oregon
Speaker 2: has the most impressive regular season and arguably the most
Speaker 2: impressive championship game performance. George is up there as well.
Speaker 2: They get the winner of the Tennessee Ohio State game,
Speaker 2: which is a team capable of winning the national championship,
Speaker 2: then they could face Texas than Georgia. How did Penn
Speaker 2: State get.
Speaker 3: An easier round out?
Speaker 2: They lost at home to Ohio State and got hammered
Speaker 2: by Oregon. I think they have now they play another game.
Speaker 2: I think they have a much easier route than Oregon.
Speaker 2: I thought Oregon kind of got hosed.
Speaker 1: Yeah to me, them copying the basketball bracket where you're
Speaker 1: forced to play team instead of the NFL bracket where
Speaker 1: you receed by the round. Yes, yeah to me, you
Speaker 1: gotta change football wise, receed by the rest. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: because Oregon has the only undefeated team. Clearly, if you
Speaker 1: just watched the best team currently in the second best
Speaker 1: conference and they get stuck with Ohio State Tennessee. That
Speaker 1: seems pretty outrageous, I thought, because if they could pick
Speaker 1: the opponents, I think there's a decent chance that Ohio
Speaker 1: State would be the last opponent they would want to play. Yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe Notre Dame. Second Tennessee would be high up there too,
Speaker 1: like the SMUs the Clemsons. You gotta reced Now, this
Speaker 1: is where I'm not going to freak out year one.
Speaker 1: You got to figure it out. But you cannot keep this.
Speaker 1: How can Boise and ASU potentially get your opponents than Oregon?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean Penn State.
Speaker 1: They would say Oregon's gonna play the Rose Bowl, like
Speaker 1: that's where their game is going to be. I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: like their home game, so that you know, it's kind
Speaker 1: of regionality. But plan Ohio State potentially, that's that's pretty difficult.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Ohio State will fill half that stadium. I mean,
Speaker 2: Penn State gets SMU and Boise State, I mean potentially,
Speaker 2: it's like Jesus, they the biggest game of the year
Speaker 2: at home, they lost to Ohio State, and I mean
Speaker 2: they they they got pushed around me. They they could
Speaker 2: not stop Oregon. I just thought Penn State and I
Speaker 2: understand punishing. If you flip Penn State in Ohio State
Speaker 2: in the playoff, i'd be I think it's it's more
Speaker 2: fair now Ohio State Again. The Michigan loss was not
Speaker 2: only bad, not only at home, but it made you
Speaker 2: question the entire program. Like when when when Penn State
Speaker 2: lost to Ohio State, you didn't question the program. You're like, well,
Speaker 2: Ohio State's better that that that Michigan. I mean, listen,
Speaker 2: if you want to ask yourself who she who's getting punished,
Speaker 2: it's Ohio State. I think Tennessee is the sleeper national
Speaker 2: championship picking this thing I was.
Speaker 1: I thought Herbstree had a good point during the show
Speaker 1: when they released the bracket of you know, Ohio State
Speaker 1: maybe would rather go on the road because a couple
Speaker 1: early three and outs, maybe you're down seven to nothing,
Speaker 1: ten to nothing, that place will turn on your fast
Speaker 1: because that group's edgy, that group's already pissed off. Yeah,
Speaker 1: in a weird way at ten and two, hosting a
Speaker 1: playoff game is a major disappointment. Yeah, you know, watching
Speaker 1: that game last night, I thought it was so insane
Speaker 1: that Clemson is now in the playoffs and Miami's just
Speaker 1: long gone, even though all season Miami it was like
Speaker 1: a top five or sixteen, and then Penn State. By
Speaker 1: takeaway with Penn State, Oregon's tough, and that's their skill
Speaker 1: group is better top to bottom. I think Penn State
Speaker 1: has their front seven full NFL guys, the best tight
Speaker 1: end in the country. They have a one to two
Speaker 1: running back combination. Quarterback a little all over the map,
Speaker 1: but he is extremely talented. And you saw a couple
Speaker 1: of passes where you went, well, yep, that's a top
Speaker 1: ten pick, and then you saw a couple other passes
Speaker 1: You're like, that's a sixth rounder. But you never really
Speaker 1: know what you're gonna get with them. But they have
Speaker 1: a lot of talent on their team. Like to me,
Speaker 1: if the quarterback has a B plus a minus game,
Speaker 1: they could play with most anyone in this in this tournament.
Speaker 1: I'm with you on Tennessee. Their defensive line is really good. Yeah,
Speaker 1: what's Ohio State's problem right now? Well, if they're offensive,
Speaker 1: they's had a guy tearing achilles they missing. That can
Speaker 1: be a rough I'm telling you that place could start
Speaker 1: booing if it's like nothing in the second quarter.
Speaker 2: The weather forecast for this weekend in Columbus is forty
Speaker 2: degrees and what it's not playing to a finesse down
Speaker 2: the field team, so Will Howard, who's been hot and
Speaker 2: cold in big games. It's forty degrees, the pressure's on.
Speaker 2: You'll be favored and Tennessee d line and Ohio State online.
Speaker 2: If you're forced to run the ball against Tennessee that's
Speaker 2: got a seventeen thirteen field to it. That's not gonna
Speaker 2: be a high scoring game, in my opinion.
Speaker 1: One thing that's gonna be. You know, for the most part,
Speaker 1: in college you get a couple and you hammered this
Speaker 1: home when they went. When the West Coast teams got
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten, there aren't as many cold weather
Speaker 1: games as you think. In the NFL there are, why
Speaker 1: they play all through December through January. College football usually
Speaker 1: ends home games the last week in November, November warm
Speaker 1: weather Bowls.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 1: That's where this changed, because they don't. They're they're playing
Speaker 1: in two weeks, right, and it's Friday night, Saturday Night
Speaker 1: at South Bend and at Ohio State, which makes sense.
Speaker 1: I mean, two of the biggest brands Ito's gonna get
Speaker 1: huge ratings. Plus the NFL plays Saturday, so it gets
Speaker 1: a little loss in the shuffle. You know, like Texas.
Speaker 1: The Texas game and the Penn State game are going
Speaker 1: up against like Raven Steelers, so you know, but those
Speaker 1: two night games are gonna be by themselves. It could
Speaker 1: be really cold. Yeah, I mean it's so it's and
Speaker 1: a half one thing with playoff football, even with the
Speaker 1: best teams, it's usually not thirty five to thirty scores, right,
Speaker 1: It's usually lower scoring. Can't you can't feel your hands?
Speaker 1: I mean you could have a game in two weeks
Speaker 1: at Ohio State with it. Couldn't it be twenty seven
Speaker 1: degrees or Notre Dame? It could be freezing cold?
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: I don't get him maybe every six weeks. Love to
Speaker 2: have him more, Nick Wright. So let me throw this
Speaker 2: at you. This is not a baseball topic. We don't
Speaker 2: talk a lot about it, but it's fascinating to me.
Speaker 2: So I'm agnostic on many things. I'm kind of an
Speaker 2: agnostic personality, from religion to almost anything. I tend to
Speaker 2: be just sort of I weigh information and I pick
Speaker 2: the side I like. I don't have a lot of
Speaker 2: purity in me right, Like, I don't have a lot
Speaker 2: of loyalty outside of my wife and my children and friends.
Speaker 2: But so baseball comes out with this golden it bat
Speaker 2: concept where basically you could Bryce Harper gets an extra
Speaker 2: at bat every game, or an Aaron Judge. You don't
Speaker 2: have to use it, but you can in a critical situation.
Speaker 2: And purists are bothered by this, And I'm fascinated by
Speaker 2: what purists are holding on to. And I've heard baseball
Speaker 2: people say, oh, I'll never watch another baseball game as
Speaker 2: if Sandy Coofax's historic run is diluted by a new
Speaker 2: golden bat. At that concept in twenty twenty four, it's
Speaker 2: it's almost like saying it's not perfectly analogous, but gay
Speaker 2: marriage ruins the sanctity of previous marriage.
Speaker 3: Well, if you had a great marriage for forty years,
Speaker 3: what does it have toen. But also I will also say,
Speaker 3: anybody that like, we've all come to terms with the
Speaker 3: guy that most people feel like probably correctly is the
Speaker 3: greatest baseball player ever played at a time when a
Speaker 3: lot of the greatest baseball players ever were not allowed
Speaker 3: to be in the league because they were black or Hispanic,
Speaker 3: and it's just like, hey, we know that's part of
Speaker 3: the record, right, we know, like there's people have an ability.
Speaker 3: Nobody with a brain looks back and it's like, hey,
Speaker 3: I checked Terry Bradshaw's stats. Dude, sucks. It's like no,
Speaker 3: it's like I know that's what the record, but like
Speaker 3: those what the numbers are. But we all understand intuitively, oh,
Speaker 3: that was a different era. So if we were to
Speaker 3: have a golden at bat era and it's like, holy shit,
Speaker 3: a lot of three home run games out of nowhere,
Speaker 3: it's like, oh yeah, because they change the rules. People
Speaker 3: are smarter than we give them. But that's what I'm asking.
Speaker 2: We had the cattle steroid era, so all the records
Speaker 2: are in power, records are meaning, and nobody really knows
Speaker 2: who took it. I mean seriously, it's like trying to
Speaker 2: figure out which rich people cheated on their taxes.
Speaker 3: How about we start with all of them?
Speaker 2: Right? Like, who knows? So my take is what are
Speaker 2: purests holding onto? Are these forty eight year old men
Speaker 2: who still collect baseball cards?
Speaker 3: Like the idea?
Speaker 2: So the sport makes two changes both crush, defensive shift,
Speaker 2: eliminate rush, and at pitchclock. Okay, so so all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, the defensive shift more base hips, Well, that's
Speaker 2: messing with the previous six eight years.
Speaker 3: Right, And the thing closest to the golden at bad
Speaker 3: is the ghost runner ghost runner thing, which you know
Speaker 3: in made baseball cooler for the regular season. You don't
Speaker 3: want to put in the playoffs, that's fine.
Speaker 2: So what are purest holding onto that are outraged by
Speaker 2: a new concept? Well, I don't understand peris.
Speaker 3: I'm not the the I mean I understand them, I
Speaker 3: don't agree with them because ultimately, what my one of
Speaker 3: my fundamental beliefs that bothers I think purists, But it's
Speaker 3: not even a belief, it's just a fact. Sports are
Speaker 3: simply entertainment products. That's all it is. We are part
Speaker 3: of the entertainment industry. We are in We are fighting
Speaker 3: for attention and relevance in sports. And there is nothing
Speaker 3: inherently more valuable, moral, ethical important to American professional football
Speaker 3: than American Ultimate frisbee. But one is the most valuable
Speaker 3: television property in the world, and the other is something
Speaker 3: the best in the world at almost assuredly needs a
Speaker 3: real job because it doesn't pay the bills. So why
Speaker 3: is that? Because people like watching one and don't care
Speaker 3: about the other. That's exclusively why, there is no other reason.
Speaker 3: And the idea that you have a birthright to people's attention,
Speaker 3: go ask course, racing, go ask box. You don't and
Speaker 3: so all of these. So here's the real reason I
Speaker 3: love the Golden A bad idea. I like baseball, I
Speaker 3: love basketball, and I'm worried about basketball. I am legitimately
Speaker 3: worried about the NBA because they have two massive issues
Speaker 3: that everyone knows is a problem, and I don't know
Speaker 3: that they have the stomach a dress for the change
Speaker 3: that's needed. One is one that's been talked about a
Speaker 3: ton historically, which is the load management, superstars not playing
Speaker 3: whatever it is. I will give a quick anecdote on
Speaker 3: why that's my thoughts on that, then I'll get to
Speaker 3: the real thing. I was in LA for seventy two
Speaker 3: hours over Thanksgiving because our son lives there and he couldn't.
Speaker 3: We brought thanks even to him, essentially that Friday night
Speaker 3: Lakers thunder, and I'm like, you know what, My wife's
Speaker 3: grandparents are with us. They're ninety one and ninety three.
Speaker 3: They love Lebron, had never seen him play, and I'm like,
Speaker 3: you know, what's the point of making money if you
Speaker 3: don't spend it on stuff like this. So I bought
Speaker 3: six tickets, not courtside, but first road behind courtside. Not cheap, right,
Speaker 3: But what I was like, it's a I bought him
Speaker 3: at noon with full confidence. Well, Lebron's gonna play because
Speaker 3: Lebron plays, you know what I mean, Like Lebron did
Speaker 3: he get hurt last night? Then he's playing like even
Speaker 3: though he's the oldest guy in the league. And if
Speaker 3: it were any other superstar, I would have when my
Speaker 3: wife mentioned to me, should we do it? I would
Speaker 3: have said, yes, But let's wait until like five o'clock
Speaker 3: to find out. That's terrible for the business. The other
Speaker 3: thing that is getting a lot of attention is the
Speaker 3: NBA's at its core. The NBA's popularity is based on
Speaker 3: is that dude flying Holy shit? Liked not here's another
Speaker 3: thirty five footer And strategically, just like the shift, strategically
Speaker 3: was smart, but from a television product, it was a disaster.
Speaker 2: Everybody looks the same every game, every possessions.
Speaker 3: This game looks the same. There's no different styles, there's
Speaker 3: no anything, And we're minimizing athleticism. John Moriant goes on
Speaker 3: the record is like, I'm done dunking Anthony Everwards. Taking
Speaker 3: thirteen three is a game, It's awful, clearly a disaster,
Speaker 3: a disaster. And so when I say massive changes, what
Speaker 3: I mean is have a real conversation about hey, dunks
Speaker 3: are also worth three now? Or this does this?
Speaker 2: Two suggestions one and I said this seven years ago
Speaker 2: on the air and had a graphic take out the
Speaker 2: corner three it impossible to defend.
Speaker 3: Yes, okay that that agree? That should be done tomorrow.
Speaker 2: So it goes right into the bench, you put it,
Speaker 2: you move it out of about six inches, make it
Speaker 2: a real arc, make it a real arc. And so
Speaker 2: that's just much easier to defend it. You can be
Speaker 2: on players or this would be my This is something
Speaker 2: I've thought about as well, and I don't know. I
Speaker 2: think you could do this is that you get fifteen
Speaker 2: a game.
Speaker 3: That's what I said, Oh, yes, exactly right, whatever the
Speaker 3: number is. That's the other thing I was, fifteen points
Speaker 3: of your offense. Your offense. Yeah, and by the way,
Speaker 3: you can still shoot them after that, but they're worth two.
Speaker 3: There's Kurt Goldsberry had the idea years ago that I
Speaker 3: thought was fascinating, which was, you know how baseball stadiums,
Speaker 3: everyone picks their own dimensions. You got a green monster,
Speaker 3: you got a short portray, Yankee Stadium, Royal Stadium as cavernous.
Speaker 3: Kurt Goldsberry says, each year, every team draws their three
Speaker 3: point line, and if you like, no and the I
Speaker 3: and I know that sounds ridiculous, but his point was
Speaker 3: some teams will be like, we don't have one. Well,
Speaker 3: that's not who we are. We're building a old school
Speaker 3: beat you up. You know what I mean, big, big
Speaker 3: man style. The the Blazers when they had prime Dame
Speaker 3: Lillard might have been like, ours is from thirty seven
Speaker 3: feet out because we have the one guy who can.
Speaker 3: And if that were the case, you would have you
Speaker 3: would know, man, I'd better be able to play a
Speaker 3: bunch of different ways, score a bunch of different ways,
Speaker 3: because shit tonight we're in Oklahoma City and there's no
Speaker 3: threes whatever. So I don't know the exact right answer.
Speaker 3: What I know is this, if the NBA dies does
Speaker 3: not make a massive change, it is in huge bubbles
Speaker 3: because they have they have still they're still suckling off
Speaker 3: the teat of Lebron Steph kd your most.
Speaker 2: John Edwards, do not dunk the one of the sets.
Speaker 3: I mean the Jordan logo.
Speaker 2: If you really think of even Doctor Jay's highlights today,
Speaker 2: Connie Hopkins when I was a kid, the car doing.
Speaker 3: Of it's and the here was another question, man.
Speaker 2: Oh, let me tell this at you this. I said
Speaker 2: this about the NFL. I said, can you I mentione
Speaker 2: if the NFL only allowed the tush push and bombs,
Speaker 2: there's no intermediates, no bubble screens, It's just power running
Speaker 2: or bombs. That's the NBA. It's not as appealing.
Speaker 3: By and by the way, the NFL one year into
Speaker 3: the tush push, it was like we're looking into bandness
Speaker 3: And it wasn't because of safety. It was because that's
Speaker 3: terrible TV. That's bad for our product. It's not exciting,
Speaker 3: it's ugly, and ultimately we're a TV show. And so
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know the answer, but I do
Speaker 3: know that continuing down this path is disastrous.
Speaker 1: So I.
Speaker 3: Would love it if baseball did something drastic, because then
Speaker 3: I think there is the NBA would look at itself
Speaker 3: hopefully and be like, well, the NFL. Every year it's
Speaker 3: like hey, rule change, figured out hip drop tackle. I'd
Speaker 3: never heard that term three years ago. Last year it
Speaker 3: was the most dangerous things ever happened in the sport.
Speaker 3: This year it's gone like defenseless receiver to hit the
Speaker 3: quarterback low Tom Brady. Tom Brady blows out his knee.
Speaker 3: They're like, massive rule change. You now no longer hit
Speaker 3: the quarterback low. Doesn't matter. Aaron Rodgers breaks his collar bone.
Speaker 3: They're like, hey, you can't fall on quarterbacks now either.
Speaker 3: Don't care if you don't like it. Baseball's making changes.
Speaker 3: The NBA is just like, can we interest you in
Speaker 3: a new All Star game format? And it's like, bro,
Speaker 3: that's not the issue here. And here's one other NBA question.
Speaker 3: I didn't I forgot who first posed this, but every
Speaker 3: since I read it, I'm like, oh, that's interesting. Is
Speaker 3: there a single NBA player under thirty that is more
Speaker 3: famous than Caitlin Clark?
Speaker 2: No, no, no, there's not.
Speaker 3: There's not. That's a problem.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you something that's fascinating. Here's something I talked.
Speaker 2: I led my show with us today and unfortunately, I'm
Speaker 2: sure you probably didn't have time for it. You used
Speaker 2: to listen religiously but those days are over. But the
Speaker 2: point being, no, that's just not so I led with
Speaker 2: this today, Deebo Samuel brought pretty comes out yeah and says,
Speaker 2: you know, I love Debo and we'll get him the
Speaker 2: ball more. And I thought, oh, okay, So a year ago,
Speaker 2: nine months ago, running backs are dead in this league.
Speaker 2: The top five running teams now in the league are
Speaker 2: all playoff teams. The top six receivers receiving yards, six
Speaker 2: of the top ten round losing teams. And so it's
Speaker 2: it's Davante Adams, cryptic messages, Jamar Chase is noisy, it's
Speaker 2: elite neighbors, it's Deebo Samuel, it's Deontay Johnson, it's George Pickens.
Speaker 3: So it's even Aj Brown, by the way, on a
Speaker 3: good team. Everything was fine, and then he's like, I'm pissed.
Speaker 3: I said, it's not fine.
Speaker 2: I said, we gave receivers for about two years the
Speaker 2: keys to the kingdom, but they are sports cars. They
Speaker 2: don't work well in the winner. You can't really drive
Speaker 2: him seven days a week. And running backs this is
Speaker 2: you've you've loved this take and running backs no, no, no,
Speaker 2: they're the SUV year round groceries, ocer practice date all weather.
Speaker 2: Actually always elevate the quarterback, always young quarterback, old quarterback.
Speaker 2: They're also great. They help you take leads and eat
Speaker 2: the clock and help you protect them. The receivers, don't
Speaker 2: they all block or they don't play. They're the grinders,
Speaker 2: they're the most running back Sakwon Barkley, I want the
Speaker 2: ball more, but I'm sacrificing for the team. They never
Speaker 2: You never hear a running back complaining we're throwing it
Speaker 2: too much to the star receiver. And it's a classic
Speaker 2: example is that we gave it's the NBA position of NFL.
Speaker 2: Wide receiver breaks the huddle first, he's on his own.
Speaker 2: We gave you the keys for like two years. We
Speaker 2: immediately had a wide receiver. Bubble Chiefs win without Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 2: You can argue they can spend money on defense. They're
Speaker 2: just a much better team now, more complete team. And
Speaker 2: in the end, it goes back nine months ago we
Speaker 2: lamented the future of running backs. It is now in
Speaker 2: one season, Baltimore, Detroit, Green Bay, Washington. Here comes Isaiah Pacheco,
Speaker 2: the Rams, Kiren Wims. It is a running back quarterback league.
Speaker 2: Again in nine months.
Speaker 3: So so that was and I didn't see it coming
Speaker 3: this quickly or die. But what I did wonder was,
Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, one of the things that happened
Speaker 3: to running backs was yes, the game changed, but the
Speaker 3: other it wasn't just that the game changed. It wasn't
Speaker 3: just your position isn't as valuable. It was there's too
Speaker 3: many B minuses, meaning like there you could seemingly find
Speaker 3: a not great, but a good running back anywhere, practice squad,
Speaker 3: seventh round, undrafted free agent like. And the reason for
Speaker 3: that was very obvious, which is our whole lives. The
Speaker 3: best athlete at seven years old where they put him
Speaker 3: running back like if it wasn't the quarter like it
Speaker 3: was like, oh, you're the best player on the team.
Speaker 3: We're gonna if we're if you're either gonna be a
Speaker 3: dual threat quarterback or the running back, because we're gonna
Speaker 3: hand you the ball a bunch. So in high school
Speaker 3: and college, there were just too many good ones, which
Speaker 3: means seems like, okay, I could pay X for a
Speaker 3: great one or basically nothing for a good one, so
Speaker 3: I'll do that. And what I wondered aloud was are
Speaker 3: we about to see in a few years the same
Speaker 3: thing happened to receivers because now if you're a great
Speaker 3: athlete as a kid, they're putting you at receiver. It
Speaker 3: is seven on seven every damn year in the draft.
Speaker 3: This year there were ten receivers taken in the first
Speaker 3: forty picks. And then when we're like hold on that,
Speaker 3: everybody thinks there are twenty five top ten receivers. Like
Speaker 3: if you really put pencil to paper and it's like, okay,
Speaker 3: is he a top ten receiver? Well, I don't, no, man,
Speaker 3: because that Garrett Wilson thinks he is. DeVante Adams thinks
Speaker 3: he is. Tyreek Hill thinks he is Jayleen Waddle thinks
Speaker 3: he is. There's four just in the AFC East, and
Speaker 3: you keep going is Terry mclaurins, Nicocollins is Deebo Samuel Is,
Speaker 3: Brandon ayuk Is and I've mentioned Tyreek Kill, Jamar Chase
Speaker 3: aj Brown, CD lamb a Mon Like there's all of these,
Speaker 3: it's like, well they're thirty million a person. But Brian
Speaker 3: Thomas Junior was the fourth receiver taken, So like, is
Speaker 3: there going to be the same type of correction where
Speaker 3: teams are like, no, I'm not paying thirty million for
Speaker 3: a receiver. There's six more great ones coming out in
Speaker 3: the draft, Like, I'm just not doing it right. So
Speaker 3: I saw that, I wondered if that was happening. I
Speaker 3: still think that's probably going to happen. The other thing
Speaker 3: that has happened this season is and maybe I'm maybe
Speaker 3: this is just because I turned forty and I instantly
Speaker 3: developed old man opinions. But Malik neighbors being a diva
Speaker 3: receiver as a rookie in fury it's too much and like,
Speaker 3: in a way, it's too much. Man, say, like, listen,
Speaker 3: I get that there's been a we're allowed to be divas,
Speaker 3: so we kind of lean into it from the position.
Speaker 3: Got it, so be it no problem. But t Ow
Speaker 3: and o Jo Sinko were not pains in the ass
Speaker 3: their first year in the league. They weren't like they
Speaker 3: were great, and then they they developed years. Yes, once
Speaker 3: they had pelts on the wall, I see, I'm like, man, everywhere,
Speaker 3: I look like George Pickens, an awesome player, huge pain
Speaker 3: in the ass from day one. Malik Neighbors it took
Speaker 3: him eight games before he's like, why didn't I get
Speaker 3: the ball to were down thirty nothing? It's like, buddy,
Speaker 3: you're the best player on the team. I get it,
Speaker 3: but you it's too early lead for this, It's too early.
Speaker 3: And so the and then the AJ Brown thing really
Speaker 3: irritated me on a just a team level. It's like, man,
Speaker 3: there there was nothing wrong. Everything. You guys are on
Speaker 3: a ten game winning streak, you're you guys are undefeated
Speaker 3: when you playing there seemingly everything's all good. The only
Speaker 3: public narrative should be, man, Sakuon Barkley's gonna break Eric
Speaker 3: Dickerson's record, and our defense is better than you idiots
Speaker 3: thought it would be. And then privately, if you want
Speaker 3: to be like god, damn it, so be it. But
Speaker 3: it's that was like AJ Brown, you're on your third contract,
Speaker 3: you just got paid again. What are we doing?
Speaker 2: He was overshadowed by a star running back in Tennessee,
Speaker 2: Derek Henry, and he's overshadowed again with a star running back.
Speaker 2: No great receiver has been overshadowed in his prime by
Speaker 2: the two best receivers over the last six years in
Speaker 2: the league. He's the guy.
Speaker 3: Oh, that's interesting. I didn't even think about that.
Speaker 2: So he keeps going to play, he's going time out.
Speaker 2: I get a good quarterback, not a great one. Tannehill
Speaker 2: Jalen I'm the best player on the team, and both
Speaker 2: become run centric.
Speaker 3: What are you doing to my career?
Speaker 1: What are you right?
Speaker 3: But but the but here's the here's the thing about that.
Speaker 3: But you keep getting paid any like, you keep getting
Speaker 3: top of the market.
Speaker 2: Deals, but money every time. You know, I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: speak for anybody, but when people get raises, it's good
Speaker 2: for about three checks and then you're like, I want
Speaker 2: the respect. Guys are driven much more by respect than
Speaker 2: they are money.
Speaker 3: I know that part. I totally agree with I the
Speaker 3: and I agree with you the But whenever, like somebody
Speaker 3: loses a job or whatever and the reaction on Twitter
Speaker 3: is either still getting paid or whatever, I disagree with
Speaker 3: that because for someone who has been a j in it,
Speaker 3: it's gonna sound like I'm contradicting myself, But I'll come around.
Speaker 3: He's been He's not newly rich. He's been rich long
Speaker 3: enough that that's his normal. So the money doesn't really
Speaker 3: solve things. The point I'm making is I would understand
Speaker 3: it a little bit more if you were in a
Speaker 3: contract year. If it's like, yo, you're costing me money
Speaker 3: because but the Eagles preemptively paid him this offseason early.
Speaker 3: And one of the reasons I would think you do
Speaker 3: that is to stave this off, Like, hey, no matter
Speaker 3: how we have to run the team, you're gonna know
Speaker 3: you've been taken care of. So even if this year
Speaker 3: your numbers are down, it's not costing you anything because
Speaker 3: we just paid you. So that's the reason I brought
Speaker 3: it up, Like I do get why guys who are
Speaker 3: in contract years are.
Speaker 2: Like no, I mean, aj Browne, give me my not
Speaker 2: being selfish. Because also, the NFL record book nobody cares.
Speaker 2: It's not like baseball. It really isn't. Nobody cares about
Speaker 2: the NFL record But we know Brady and Jerry, Rice
Speaker 2: and Montana and Mahomes are all over it, like and Breeze,
Speaker 2: So like a wide receiver, like, listen, we know you're great.
Speaker 2: If you get paid and you win a ring, it
Speaker 2: kind of solves everything.
Speaker 3: Well, and that's and also like if there's anyone on
Speaker 3: the like, could you imagine and this is to your
Speaker 3: point if after this last game, Saquan out of nowhere
Speaker 3: in the locker room was like, yeah, I mean, listen,
Speaker 3: everything's great, but I'm really sick of jail and sniping
Speaker 3: my touch. I should have ten more. Like how about
Speaker 3: we call a handoff at the one instead of the toushbush.
Speaker 3: People would be like, you laugh because it's laughable to
Speaker 3: think of him doing it. But it's used to receivers
Speaker 3: being ridiculous. We're totally used to it, one hundred percent
Speaker 3: used to it, like the yeah, I mean, I don't,
Speaker 3: I can't, I can't even bad ones Kadarius Tony, this dope,
Speaker 3: he's bounced. He just wants to. He barely got on
Speaker 3: the field in Cleveland Fair caught a punt and taunted
Speaker 3: a guy. It's like you just have it in your DNA,
Speaker 3: like you just have It's it's unbelievable, all.
Speaker 2: Right, Time for another edition. We released this on Thursday
Speaker 2: night and the YouTube channel or Friday on the podcast
Speaker 2: Sharper Square. Chad Millman co host of the Favorites. All
Speaker 2: of our odds provided by DraftKings. So last week a
Speaker 2: lot of favorites were in favor for me and didn't
Speaker 2: necessarily do well. I'm still surprised how the Rams played
Speaker 2: perhaps the most flawless half to game of offensive football
Speaker 2: by any team on the season. I was just watching
Speaker 2: some clips of it today and they did everything right.
Speaker 2: Nobody dropped a pass ball, never hit the turf, no
Speaker 2: holding it. It was a thing of art. And it's
Speaker 2: interesting because now this week you get the Bills getting
Speaker 2: two and a half at the Lions.
Speaker 3: And I like the Bills here because.
Speaker 2: They're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're they're
Speaker 2: getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was
Speaker 2: this Sandwich game, even though it's McVeigh and Stafford. You know,
Speaker 2: Buffalo travels west, they know half the stadium is going
Speaker 2: to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even
Speaker 2: though it's not an AFC or a divisional game, and
Speaker 2: they had a couple of guys on the cusp that
Speaker 2: could play or not, and they elected not and they
Speaker 2: got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game.
Speaker 2: So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now,
Speaker 2: Sharper square.
Speaker 6: Well, the line has moved from one and a half
Speaker 6: Detroit to two and a half Detroit, and I will
Speaker 6: tell you that the majority of betting tickets have been
Speaker 6: coming in on the Buffalo Bills. So when you see
Speaker 6: a line move that goes in the direction of one
Speaker 6: side that is opposite of where the betting tickets are.
Speaker 6: That's a reverse line move, and that sizes you. The
Speaker 6: professional betters are on the Lions, and they've been on
Speaker 6: the Lions at one and a half and two. At
Speaker 6: two and a half, you start to see the pressure point.
Speaker 6: You'll find an equal number who still like the Lions
Speaker 6: at two and a half, and they take it up
Speaker 6: to three, and you'll find the number of wise guys
Speaker 6: who are coming in at two and a half on
Speaker 6: the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen.
Speaker 6: I will tell you I'm a Lions backer. In this game,
Speaker 6: I bettered at one and a half, I bettered at two.
Speaker 6: As healthy as the Bills are starting to get with
Speaker 6: players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions
Speaker 6: have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot
Speaker 6: of guys back on the defensive line that has just
Speaker 6: been decimated over the past three or four weeks. Also,
Speaker 6: the Lions haven't played on the road since November twenty
Speaker 6: fourth at the Colts. They haven't played period for ten days.
Speaker 6: You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right,
Speaker 6: they had the Chiefs. They had the Niners. Those were
Speaker 6: massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go
Speaker 6: on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that
Speaker 6: just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got
Speaker 6: to go on the road again against what might be
Speaker 6: the best team in the NFL, and they could face
Speaker 6: them in the Super Bowl. So you know you're not
Speaker 6: wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half.
Speaker 6: But if you said I like the Lions, you'd be
Speaker 6: on the sharp side too. It's a pretty even split
Speaker 6: at this number. Just at this number. Okay, Steelers getting
Speaker 6: five and a half at the Eagles. And the reason
Speaker 6: I like this is because pitch Burgh's mostly been a
Speaker 6: pretty good team against the run. If you look at
Speaker 6: what the Eagles have decided to do since the buy,
Speaker 6: it is throw the ball less.
Speaker 2: Green Bay's doing this too. They are a run first team,
Speaker 2: as they should be. Their best player is Saq One.
Speaker 2: Their second best player is AJ Brown. I think Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: can have some vulnerababilities against the pass, but I don't
Speaker 2: think Jalen hurts from the pocket. I mean, Aj Brown's
Speaker 2: not happy he's only getting six and a half targets.
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league
Speaker 2: four and a half points. These two don't play very often.
Speaker 2: It feels like a lot of points to a very
Speaker 2: good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, If Pickens plays, they
Speaker 2: have enough big play ability to back door cover. The
Speaker 2: line seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers sharper square.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's sharp.
Speaker 6: And this is what we talked about on the Favorites
Speaker 6: podcast was why isn't this number three? Why isn't this
Speaker 6: number three and a half? When the number is so
Speaker 6: out of whack, you either are being asked to do
Speaker 6: something that is too easy, which the books never do,
Speaker 6: or you feel like you're missing something. I don't know
Speaker 6: what we're missing here. Like you just mentioned, Tomlin is
Speaker 6: the best underdog coach in the league. Tomlin is the
Speaker 6: best underdog coach in a generation. Let's put this in perspective.
Speaker 6: You win fifty three percent of your bets. You're an
Speaker 6: incredible sports better, right, that's what you're looking for. So
Speaker 6: when we talk about trends, and we talk about analytics
Speaker 6: on certain opportunities and metrics and betting, if we can
Speaker 6: find a trend that is fifty six percent against the
Speaker 6: spread over in historically relevant period of time. You tend
Speaker 6: to want to play that if all the other factors
Speaker 6: are in your direction. Tomlin, he's sixty plus percent in
Speaker 6: just about every category as an underdog, you say, all right,
Speaker 6: between three and seven two key numbers. Seven percent, you
Speaker 6: say on the road as a dog, sixty four percent,
Speaker 6: Like you can't name a category where he's not sixty
Speaker 6: plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too.
Speaker 6: You mentioned Saquan right, the Eagles are the only team
Speaker 6: in the NFL that is running the ball at a
Speaker 6: higher percenters than they're passing the ball. And I would
Speaker 6: not think, oh my god, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown
Speaker 6: there's you know, strife and now they're getting along again.
Speaker 6: Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this
Speaker 6: offense and all of a sudden try to make it so.
Speaker 6: AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is
Speaker 6: who they are. Jalen Hurts is throwing the fewest passes
Speaker 6: in the NFL this year, So I would expect a
Speaker 6: low scoring game. Wise, guys are expecting a low scoring
Speaker 6: game that plays to the advantage of the team that
Speaker 6: is more than a field goal underdog. So yeah, that's
Speaker 6: the sharp side.
Speaker 2: I like the Broncos minus four, both teams off a bye.
Speaker 2: I think Denver's got a really good defense. Now again,
Speaker 2: Jamis went and I think you can beat it down
Speaker 2: the field. That's not really what the Colts do. I
Speaker 2: think there are ways to score on virtually every team
Speaker 2: in this league. And I think Cleveland is one of
Speaker 2: those weird bad teams that can be highly productive throwing
Speaker 2: the ball down the field. But it should be noted
Speaker 2: in that game Denver eventually got picked sixes and turn
Speaker 2: the game around with their defense. Is I think Anthony
Speaker 2: Richardson is struggling with Shane Steichen. Look what Shane Steiken
Speaker 2: did with Gardner Minshew Okay, Shane Steiken as a rookie
Speaker 2: with Justin Herbert set records made Jalen Hurts an MVP
Speaker 2: level player and he's pretty average from the pocket. That
Speaker 2: passing game is limited, and I think it's limited because
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson may not be a pro starting quarterback. I
Speaker 2: get an experience coach an excellent defense at home against
Speaker 2: the Dome team. You know, I love the number four.
Speaker 2: It's probably square, but I like Denver. Here. Give me
Speaker 2: Sean Payton Shanahan McVeigh read extra time Sharper square.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know the answer, it's totally square. Wise guys
Speaker 6: love the Colts here. It's been bet down. It was
Speaker 6: at four and a half, it's at four. It'll probably
Speaker 6: go down to three and a half. If you want
Speaker 6: to bet the Colts, get it now, because it's only going.
Speaker 5: To go in their direction.
Speaker 6: You're right about the Broncos coming off a bye, and
Speaker 6: there is a lot of public sentiment on the Broncos
Speaker 6: right now. The last time anyone saw them, they were
Speaker 6: winning in dramatic fashion against the Browns, right they were
Speaker 6: getting two pick sixes, they were covering with a miracle
Speaker 6: and an interception in the end zone. The Broncos are
Speaker 6: covering by five points per game. Historically, teams that are
Speaker 6: covering by five points per game over the course of
Speaker 6: the season once we get past Week five only covered
Speaker 6: about a forty four percent clip against the spread. So
Speaker 6: there's one trend to help the cause of the cults.
Speaker 6: But also, I don't know that wise guys agree with
Speaker 6: you about Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit
Speaker 6: of Bryce Young sort of in the way he's come
Speaker 6: back from being benched since he's come back. Eighth rated
Speaker 6: passer according to Pro Football Focus, fourth in big plays
Speaker 6: according to Pro Football Focus, big play throws according to
Speaker 6: Pro Football Focus. So it's not as bad as you
Speaker 6: would think. And I do think there's something key here.
Speaker 6: Remember what happened with the Browns against the Broncos on
Speaker 6: that in that primetime game, they didn't have Riley Moss
Speaker 6: a cornerback.
Speaker 5: They had William Vance.
Speaker 6: William Vance he might have still he might still be
Speaker 6: giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy as we speak, like
Speaker 6: he was getting torched in that game. Riley Moss is
Speaker 6: the only guy who didn't practice this week for the Broncos.
Speaker 6: So if he's not playing, I think that's a severely
Speaker 6: diminished defense and it impacts what they can do all
Speaker 6: across the board. So there's trend reasons. There's inflation reasons.
Speaker 6: The line is just too high, the wise guys think,
Speaker 6: and there's some matchup reasons.
Speaker 2: Packers Seahawks is a really interesting game. Packers, like the Eagles,
Speaker 2: have taken passing attempts away from Jordan Love in the
Speaker 2: last month. They're now a power run team that makes
Speaker 2: far fewer mistakes. But Green Bay is like a younger
Speaker 2: version of Philadelphia. They have just decided we're a power
Speaker 2: run team.
Speaker 3: We do have.
Speaker 2: Weapons over the top, but we're not going to let
Speaker 2: our quarterback throw more than like twenty two to twenty
Speaker 2: four times, and we're going to reduce the errors. And
Speaker 2: when green Bay does reduce the errors, they're really really
Speaker 2: good football team. I like Seattle, I still don't think
Speaker 2: they're an elite team. I think they're a playoff team,
Speaker 2: maybe in a OK division. I think green Bay is
Speaker 2: absolutely a playoff team and an excellent division. I like
Speaker 2: green Bay minus two and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 6: One hundred percent sharp at two and a half. If
Speaker 6: it gets to three, it's a pass. And if it
Speaker 6: gets to three, you know, the wise guys will probably
Speaker 6: want to bet on Seattle. But at two and a half,
Speaker 6: it's one hundred percent. The Packers for the reasons you
Speaker 6: just stated, and the most important thing, it's like playing
Speaker 6: SEC in the MAC right. The Packers are losing really
Speaker 6: close games and winning really close games in the best
Speaker 6: division in football. They are battle tested every single week.
Speaker 6: The Seahawks, they're winning a flukey game against the Cardinals
Speaker 6: a few weeks ago, then they're getting the Cardinals in
Speaker 6: a class at Kyler Murray game last week, and they
Speaker 6: won a miraculous game against the Jets, which they should
Speaker 6: have lost, but they got Leonard Williams running a pick
Speaker 6: six back for you know, ninety something yards. So they're
Speaker 6: a much better team since the buy. And credit to
Speaker 6: their coaching staff and everything they've done. And they've improved
Speaker 6: their defense significantly and their offense. By the way, you
Speaker 6: know Zach Scharbiney and what he did last week was
Speaker 6: a great match for how they want to build their
Speaker 6: running scheme. But the wise guys like the Packers here,
Speaker 6: it's just it's a better team. And by the way,
Speaker 6: Matt Laflora is a wizard when it comes to covering
Speaker 6: the spread. It's very possible when fifteen years if Matt
Speaker 6: laflour is still coaching the Packers, he's got Mike Tomlin
Speaker 6: like stats as a favorite and as an underdog covering
Speaker 6: the spread.
Speaker 2: Okay, game, I want you to tell me where to go?
Speaker 2: Is Bears plus six and a half at the Viking.
Speaker 2: So Minnesota is a really good team. But that game
Speaker 2: with Atlanta was tied going into the fourth quarter. I've
Speaker 2: seen them against teams like the Jags go zero for
Speaker 2: five in the red zone. It's a good team with
Speaker 2: a quarterback having a great year. But six and a
Speaker 2: half is a lot. It's a divisional game, and the
Speaker 2: Bears before that disaster in the Bay Area, which was
Speaker 2: probably easier to predict than I would have admitted. I
Speaker 2: do think they'll get back on track. I do think
Speaker 2: they have a very good roster. Is again seems out
Speaker 2: of whack. Six and a half. I mean, I think
Speaker 2: it's I honestly see it as a go either way
Speaker 2: game in.
Speaker 3: The fourth quarter.
Speaker 2: Probably take the better coaching staff, but sharper square Bears
Speaker 2: plus the points.
Speaker 5: So the Bear.
Speaker 6: It's it's the sharp ish play only because and we
Speaker 6: talk about this all the time on the show, you
Speaker 6: want to get the best of the number. Twenty four
Speaker 6: hours ago, this game was seven and a half, and
Speaker 6: then it went down to seven, and now it's down
Speaker 6: to six and a half. That alone tells you, Colin,
Speaker 6: that you're on the sharp side if you're betting the Bears.
Speaker 6: The number has been moving in their direction. The line
Speaker 6: is way too inflated, and you're getting a very bi
Speaker 6: loo on the Bears. Sell high on the Vikings spot.
Speaker 6: The Bears were a train wreck. They couldn't have looked
Speaker 6: any worse. They were out of it against the Niners
Speaker 6: in the first half. Right, they had four total yards
Speaker 6: and they had five punts and the Niners had three
Speaker 6: hundred and nineteen yards. Whereas the Vikings, You're right, that
Speaker 6: game was tied and they really blew it open in
Speaker 6: the fourth quarter because of a couple of bad plays
Speaker 6: and turnovers on the part of the Falcons, not because
Speaker 6: of anything magical that the Vikings did to run away
Speaker 6: with it, even though Sam Darnold had an incredible game,
Speaker 6: but they have had their hiccups. Brian Flores defense has
Speaker 6: not been as good in the second half of the
Speaker 6: year as it was in the first half of the year. So, yes,
Speaker 6: you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know
Speaker 6: that if you're playing this number, you've given away some value.
Speaker 2: So I think the Titans getting four and a half
Speaker 2: with the Bengals. Of my prediction is that's the ugly game.
Speaker 2: I ask you every week for a game that I've missed.
Speaker 2: My guess is the Titans a pretty good defensive team
Speaker 2: at home playing with pride against the Cincinnati team. You
Speaker 2: can just move the ball. I mean, if not for
Speaker 2: a gaff by the Cowboys special teams, we're going to
Speaker 2: overtime against a very mediocre Dallas team with Cooper Rush
Speaker 2: is Tennessee plus four and a half. The side here
Speaker 2: is that the game I'm missing.
Speaker 6: Well, certainly it's a side like it was at five
Speaker 6: and it's come down. So that tells you the wise
Speaker 6: guys are betting on the Titans, because certainly the public
Speaker 6: isn't going to be betting on the Titans. It's a
Speaker 6: really tricky game. I haven't touched this game one hundred percent.
Speaker 6: The value is on the Titans. It's not the game
Speaker 6: I was going to talk to you about. But the
Speaker 6: challenge here, You've basically got a one dimensional Bengals team, right.
Speaker 6: All they can really do is throw the ball to
Speaker 6: Higgins and Chase Joe Burrow.
Speaker 5: Higgins, Joe Burrow's Chase. That's their game plan.
Speaker 6: They can't really run the ball, they don't have a
Speaker 6: screen game, they don't really have play action to speak of.
Speaker 5: All of those things that could slow.
Speaker 6: Down a better than average defense in the Titans, and
Speaker 6: they have no defense to speak of. The problem is
Speaker 6: Will Levis. He's not any better than Cooper Rush. Right,
Speaker 6: he's got a better arm. Maybe he can fling it
Speaker 6: downfield further, but he couldn't even beat up on the
Speaker 6: Jaguars at home last week despite so many opportunities. So
Speaker 6: kind of banking on the fact, you're hoping that when
Speaker 6: there's an opening, Will Levis can convert, you're going to
Speaker 6: take the Titans, because if you're a better that's what
Speaker 6: you do. You bet, you bet the number, but know
Speaker 6: that you're you're playing with fire here because you're not
Speaker 6: just betting the number.
Speaker 2: You're betting Will Levis. All right, tell me the game
Speaker 2: I missed.
Speaker 6: You didn't talk about Cleveland and Kansas City. This number
Speaker 6: is dropped from six and a half to four and
Speaker 6: a half.
Speaker 3: So the Browns are the side.
Speaker 6: The Browns have been the side. The Browns are the
Speaker 6: side until it gets to about three and a half.
Speaker 6: And this one, you know in the betting community, it's
Speaker 6: there's two things that are sort of scary right now.
Speaker 5: It's the frequency and.
Speaker 6: Regularity with which you can count on fading Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 6: when he's a favorite of more than three, and the
Speaker 6: frequency and regularity with which you can count on betting
Speaker 6: Mike Tomlin as an underdog, I said, percentage wise, if
Speaker 6: something is happening six out of ten times, which is
Speaker 6: basically what is happening with both of those categories. Tom
Speaker 6: lenn is a dog, Mahomes is a favorite of more
Speaker 6: than three, it means that four times those bets are
Speaker 6: going to lose this year, they haven't been losing at all,
Speaker 6: And so wise guys know in this spot. The spot
Speaker 6: is to play Cleveland, but it's a little bit scarier
Speaker 6: because you keep waiting for the other shooter drop. A
Speaker 6: lot of guys, including myself, thought it would happened last
Speaker 6: week against the Chargers.
Speaker 5: No JK.
Speaker 6: Dobbins, no Lad McConkey, and it looked like it was
Speaker 6: going to And then again the Chiefs kind of fell
Speaker 6: apart because they have no protection in the offensive line.
Speaker 6: So the Browns pressure the ball, pressure the quarterback more
Speaker 6: than the Chargers and are better at it. And meanwhile
Speaker 6: the Chiefs now they're signing guys off the street to
Speaker 6: play in the defensive backfield. And if you want to
Speaker 6: talk about a quarterback who could have a good time
Speaker 6: slinging it against a wonky defensive back, let's talk about
Speaker 6: Jamis Now are you potentially going to suffer a pick
Speaker 6: six that can ruin it for you? Sure, but the
Speaker 6: wise guys are willing to literally make that bet.
Speaker 5: So they're playing Cleveland.
Speaker 2: You know, I know the games a couple of weeks away,
Speaker 2: but I think it's really interesting. The Ohio State hosting
Speaker 2: Tennessee first round playoff game, to me is one of
Speaker 2: the more fascinating games ever. So you take a warm
Speaker 2: weather team from Knoxville and everybody's having to wait for
Speaker 2: the playoff to start. That means the weather's getting uglier.
Speaker 2: My wife was in Chicago to the day and she's like,
Speaker 2: it is cold.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So you take a warm weather SEC team up to
Speaker 2: a superior roster. I believe in Ohio State. You get
Speaker 2: an Ohio State team that's got a little insecurity and
Speaker 2: lack of identity off a historically bad loss. So they'll
Speaker 2: play with incredible intensity and focus. You know, Ohio State
Speaker 2: really is coming with their hair on fire. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: now Ohio State's O line is the weak unit on
Speaker 2: their roster, and the D line for the volunteers is
Speaker 2: the strength of their roster. The weather could play a factor.
Speaker 2: Ohio State's greatest asset is their vertical nature on the perimeter,
Speaker 2: it could be thirty eight degrees and windy. I looked
Speaker 2: at the forecast now it's fourteen days out or twelve
Speaker 2: days or ten days. I looked at it about four
Speaker 2: days ago and I'm like, oh, it's going to be
Speaker 2: forty one degrees and wet. How does the betting community
Speaker 2: or have they looked at that game?
Speaker 6: Well, right now the number is seven and a half.
Speaker 6: People have been talking about it. I think there's a
Speaker 6: lot of circumstances still to go. I'm looking in the
Speaker 6: app right now. Not a ton of action on the
Speaker 6: game at this point, and like this is so early
Speaker 6: you can't really take anything of it. Majority of money
Speaker 6: and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a week's
Speaker 6: bought for the for Ohio State is their quarterback, Like
Speaker 6: he's not sort of an elite passer who can take
Speaker 6: advantage of the talent they have. The elite talent, you know,
Speaker 6: top round, first round draft pick talent they have at
Speaker 6: Ohio State.
Speaker 5: You and I have talked about Ohio State.
Speaker 6: A lot, and Ryan Day the ad came out today
Speaker 6: and said he supports Ryan Day. He wants Ryan Day
Speaker 6: to be back as the head coach like I think
Speaker 6: there's so much tension inside that community right now about
Speaker 6: not just beating Tennessee, but the having to advance that
Speaker 6: his teams have shown up and played type in big games.
Speaker 5: They play type.
Speaker 6: So if you're seeing the early numbers come in on Tennessee,
Speaker 6: I think it's partly a fade of Ryan Day's ability
Speaker 6: to have his team play loose and take full advantage
Speaker 6: of the talent that they have on their roster
Speaker 5: Of volume