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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome in to a

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Speaker 1: Thursday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt or Betting Pros on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. Every morning here YouTube for video. Wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your audio for podcasts, it's always being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM and ten dollars. Offer to win

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars on any event, use that

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Speaker 1: promo code Juice one fifty BETMGMTMGM dot com. I use

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Speaker 1: that play told you yesterday I used a free bet

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Speaker 1: on one of these and I'm going to give it

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Speaker 1: make it official coming up here today. So FYI on

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Speaker 1: that just a way of using a free bet if

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Speaker 1: you want. I'll explain more coming up later on. But

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Speaker 1: the picks are bad, Ice Cold. That's an oen Fortnite.

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Speaker 1: Both player props wrong, both unders wrong. Now I'm running

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Speaker 1: cold and when you run cold. It should have been

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Speaker 1: a one in three nights because we should have gotten

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Speaker 1: the under with Northern Iowa and Bradley. Bradley won and

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Speaker 1: five to the under at home and the game ended

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Speaker 1: at one forty for a total we played under one

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Speaker 1: thirty eight. So that's just kind of how unfortunately things

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Speaker 1: are going for me right now. But a couple of

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Speaker 1: people were questioning my record and saying, you know, Matt,

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Speaker 1: you're not He doesn't keep track of his record, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't talk about his record. Look, I don't talk about

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Speaker 1: my record every day because it's boring. But I did

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Speaker 1: go back and do some accounting because I do think

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Speaker 1: it's fair. And I often say we take seven days snapshots,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's the best way of looking at

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Speaker 1: the way. You know how things are going. Things are

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Speaker 1: not going well, but things aren't going as poorly as

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Speaker 1: you might think given where we were for the four

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Speaker 1: days prior to Monday. So the last four days I've

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Speaker 1: gone oh and two, oh and two and oho and four. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So if you're fading me, I have no problem. I don't.

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Speaker 1: I never get angry. My job here is to give

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Speaker 1: you information as to where my money's going. My money

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Speaker 1: is losing and your money is winning. I'm doing my job, okay,

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Speaker 1: So you could do what you want with this. When

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Speaker 1: I'm ice cold, I always say fade away. I never

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Speaker 1: get angry. I never get mad in people if you're

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Speaker 1: a jerk about it, I get mad. But if they

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Speaker 1: look Matt, I couldn't do it your ice. I had

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Speaker 1: to go against you. Okay, that's fine. That's my job

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Speaker 1: to give you information and you do whatever you want

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Speaker 1: with that information. You want to bet with me, great,

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Speaker 1: let's ride. You want to fade me. Great if I

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Speaker 1: make you. If I'm wrong and you're right, awesome. Ohio

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Speaker 1: State and Duke was that one guy was a big

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Speaker 1: Buckeye fan said I had to fade you on Buckeye fan.

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Speaker 1: Awesome man, great job. So we got burned last night

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Speaker 1: with some bad, bad picks and bad breaks. Got burn tonight.

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Speaker 1: The Milwaukee Bucks game was dead wrong on the under.

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Speaker 1: The you know the big steam on that game. We

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Speaker 1: played over under two thirty and then close it like

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Speaker 1: two thirty eight or something two thirty six. So big

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Speaker 1: steam on the over because of the Charlotte lack of defense,

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Speaker 1: and Milwaukee wins the game on the buzzer shot by Jannis.

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Speaker 1: So that game was bad, but the under. I still

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Speaker 1: like the under for Northern Iowa and Bradley. I still

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Speaker 1: would have played that again, but then the two prop

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Speaker 1: bets unfortunately, I mean Joelle Embiid was three of seventeen

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Speaker 1: at one point had thirteen points in three of seventeen.

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Speaker 1: I mean played over twenty three and a half. He shoots,

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Speaker 1: we get there, but unfortunately, you know, we don't get there.

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Speaker 1: And then the rebounds for rob Williams come. Robert Williams

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Speaker 1: coming off of the flu. Robert Williams gets four boards.

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Speaker 1: We played over six and a half for him, and

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Speaker 1: unfortunately we just don't get the worst rebounding team in

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Speaker 1: the NBA, the Sixers, and he only gets four rebounds.

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Speaker 1: So kind of a bummer night all the way around.

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Speaker 1: Oh and two one player props oher and two one

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Speaker 1: the unders. So look, I went back into some accounting. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so oh in over the last three days, I'm oh

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Speaker 1: and eight down four units. That's awful, right, absolutely awful.

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Speaker 1: But in the previous four days to that, going back

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Speaker 1: seven days, I was nine and five up two point

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Speaker 1: two point twenty six units if you include the one

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Speaker 1: unit hit we had for the Bengals. Because the Bengals

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Speaker 1: got through their win total, it doesn't count till the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, but if you counted that, it

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Speaker 1: would have been a ten and five mark up three units. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So if you count that ten and five up three

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Speaker 1: units going into the oh to eight run, all right,

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Speaker 1: it looks a lot better. Right, it's a eleven and

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Speaker 1: fourteen seven day run. Eleven and fourteen down one unit, okay,

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Speaker 1: so just I mean down a unit. It's still losing.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's good. I'm not saying I'm not

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Speaker 1: bragging about being down one unit. I'm just explaining that, like,

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Speaker 1: it's not as bad as it looks because we had

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Speaker 1: a pretty good run. You go ten and five and

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Speaker 1: then oh and eight, it's still bad. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to deny that. Still not what you want, but it's

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Speaker 1: not been you know. It's why you can't take a

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Speaker 1: quick snapshot. If you're new to the juice, well, you've

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Speaker 1: seen you haven't seen me go through hot streaks and

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Speaker 1: cold streaks. It's just kind of how the roller coaster ride,

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Speaker 1: the up and down of betting every single day. It's

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Speaker 1: not easy. And so when life gets in the way,

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Speaker 1: when you're on the road for Thanksgiving and you're in

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Speaker 1: conferences and you're in East coast and West coast and

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Speaker 1: East coast time and West coast time and hotels and

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Speaker 1: I was in a hotel for you know, last night

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Speaker 1: was the first time I slept in my own bed

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Speaker 1: for eight nights. Okay, So it's crazy, and that's what

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Speaker 1: the juice is. I mean, that's the problem. It's the

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Speaker 1: beauty and the problem of the of the of the

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Speaker 1: daily juice. Right. I can do the podcast on Christmas morning,

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Speaker 1: I can do the podcast on New Year's Eve. I

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Speaker 1: can do the podcast on Thanksgiving on the road. And

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Speaker 1: I think we're we're up to like six different states

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Speaker 1: that I've done the Deal Juice podcast from. So that's

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Speaker 1: what this thing is. It's just a marathon, and you're

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Speaker 1: gonna have ups and downs. And if you're not with

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Speaker 1: us for the long haul, I get it. If you're

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Speaker 1: angry or mad and don't like free picks, fine go

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Speaker 1: somewhere else. I understand it. I don't want you to,

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Speaker 1: but just understand what I'm doing and understand that. I

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Speaker 1: get it, and I get the frustration, and I get

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Speaker 1: the anger and get it. But you're not paying for

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Speaker 1: any of this. Okay. This is content that is free.

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Speaker 1: It always will be free. I have never and never

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Speaker 1: will charge for a single pick and play I ever make.

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Speaker 1: I'm just telling you I've lost four units in the

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Speaker 1: last three days. Okay, that's not good. One unit, one

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Speaker 1: and a half, one and a half. That's not good.

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Speaker 1: But in the previous days, I was up and I

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Speaker 1: was winning, and you know, I had some free bets

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Speaker 1: that I was using and things. So it's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not. My bankroll is fine and I'm not worried

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Speaker 1: about it. But things will bounce back. We'll get better,

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Speaker 1: and we'll keep firing and just shooter shoot, man, is

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Speaker 1: what we do. Shooter shoot. So let's get into it today,

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Speaker 1: and let's talk about a future bet that I talked

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Speaker 1: about last night, a little bit that has come down

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Speaker 1: a bit in price. But I did this on a

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Speaker 1: free bet, but I'm going to turn it into an

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Speaker 1: official play. Here, Bill Belichick to win Coach of the

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Speaker 1: Year one unit at plus three hundred. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about where we are here for Belichick in this award. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So Bill Belichick, oftentimes, Coach of the Year award is

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Speaker 1: kind of a little bit like your comeback Player of

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Speaker 1: the Year award. You have to have. You can't be

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Speaker 1: at the top of your game year in and year

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Speaker 1: out and win the award if you're already the best.

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Speaker 1: They don't like to give you an award to just

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Speaker 1: kind of again say you're the best coach of the year,

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Speaker 1: has to kind of come from somewhere down below, like

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Speaker 1: you've been down and then you come back, or you're

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Speaker 1: a coach that no one saw it coming, where like

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Speaker 1: your team was awful and then you win in college football,

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Speaker 1: like you win ten games. It's oh my gosh, how

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Speaker 1: do you win ten games? Your team was bad? So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've got really bad coaches have won this award.

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Speaker 1: Frank Swab from yahou Sports pointing this out yesterday, and

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Speaker 1: I think he's totally right by saying that Jason garrett

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Speaker 1: has won the Coach of the Year in the NFL

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Speaker 1: more recently than Bill Belichick. Right, that's ridiculous. Jason Garretts

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Speaker 1: got fired as the OC for the Giants. So this

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Speaker 1: is a guy who's been around for a very long time.

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Speaker 1: People don't like him. But the last time Bill Belichick

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Speaker 1: won Coach of the Year was twenty ten. Can you

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Speaker 1: believe that twenty ten? If he does win the award

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Speaker 1: this year, he will tie Don Shula for the most

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Speaker 1: Coaches of the Year award in NFL history. I bet

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Speaker 1: this at plus three point fifty. It is now down

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Speaker 1: to plus three hundred. It's remarkable, but the remaining game

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Speaker 1: for the Patriots really will determine a lot for the

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Speaker 1: Pats and they haven't had their bye week yet. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Monday night, if the Patriots win at Buffalo, this award

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Speaker 1: might be over. So that's why I'm giving it out now. Okay, Yes,

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Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury could very well win this award if they

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Speaker 1: get the number one seed and if Cayler Murray plays

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Speaker 1: well this weekend. They're seven and a half point favors

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Speaker 1: on the road coming up on Sunday. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if they come up with a big win and they're

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Speaker 1: the one seed in the NFC, Yeah, okay, there's a

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Speaker 1: you know, a decent shot that Kyler Murray gets the

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Speaker 1: Coach of the Year Award. Kyler Murray's MVP, and it

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Speaker 1: correlates with Cliff Kingsbury. I truly understand that. However, the

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Speaker 1: Patriots beat Buffalo on the road, and they will take

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Speaker 1: over sole possession even without the buye, they will nine

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Speaker 1: at half a game lead. They'll take a full game

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Speaker 1: lead with a game in hand against the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 1: Patriots should have won in Buffalo. Last year, Cam Newton

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Speaker 1: unfortunately fumbled on inside the red zone that would have

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Speaker 1: won the game with the Patriots. So as long as

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Speaker 1: that doesn't happen, if they win the game on Monday night,

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is a shoe in and this number is

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Speaker 1: gonna plummet. Okay, it's gonna be way gone to I

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Speaker 1: think there's a big value play here on Bill Belichick

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Speaker 1: before the game against Buffalo to bet him for one

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Speaker 1: unit on the Coach of the Year Award. The buye

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Speaker 1: is after next week they come back for a tough

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Speaker 1: road game against the Indnapolis Colts. But it's Wentz against

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Speaker 1: that Patriots defense, and we know the history between the

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Speaker 1: Patriots and the Colts. Okay, Patriots can win that game

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Speaker 1: coming off of a bye. They really can win that game.

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Speaker 1: So if they win that, if toay beat Buffalo, that's

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Speaker 1: seven in a row. Bye week. Come off the bye week,

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Speaker 1: they could beat Indianapolis. That would be eight in a row.

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Speaker 1: And then you've got Buffalo at home on the day

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Speaker 1: after Christmas in Foxborough, huge game. Angry Bills team. You

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Speaker 1: know what they're gonna want to do if they lose

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Speaker 1: Monday Night. Not saying it's gonna happen for sure, but

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Speaker 1: just saying hypothetically, for the BET's sake, then it's Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: and Miami. Jacksonville, Miami's playing much better. Okay, the Patriots

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Speaker 1: game against that could be a huge game. It could

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Speaker 1: be incredibly important for the division. But if the Patriots

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Speaker 1: play the way they're capable of, the Patriots could run

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Speaker 1: the table. It's possible. I'm not saying it's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's possible. So at three to one

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Speaker 1: for a three to one return, this I think is

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Speaker 1: the play. This is the play right now, officially one unit.

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Speaker 1: Bet MGM's got it. If you've got a free wager,

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Speaker 1: jump on it. Okay, bet MGM Bill Belichick to win

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Speaker 1: the NFL Coach of the Year before Monday Night Football

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots play. Now, you may hate Belichick. You

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Speaker 1: may think I'm a Patriots homer. You may just say

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Speaker 1: I'm out of my mind. Okay, fine, I understand all that. However,

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Speaker 1: you can see it, whether you hate him or not,

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Speaker 1: you can see it. It's it's Cliff Kingsbury or it's

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, and Belichick has a rookie quarterback and they're

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Speaker 1: running through people right now. But if they win on

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Speaker 1: the road in primetime at Buffalo, Belichick goes to like

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Speaker 1: a plus one twenty five. All the value gets sucked

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Speaker 1: out of this award and Belichick will be the odds

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Speaker 1: on favorite to win this thing. He maybe be minus

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Speaker 1: one ten, who knows how much he will be if

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Speaker 1: he beats Buffalo on the road. If they lose to Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: it's not dead. Okay, they got to run the table,

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Speaker 1: but it's not dead because they need to win the division.

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Speaker 1: If they win the division, which I have also bet

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Speaker 1: at plus one ten, but if they win the division,

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Speaker 1: Belichick is coach of the year. So those two things

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Speaker 1: are correlated. I don't hate the fact you want to

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Speaker 1: bet the Patriots to win the division as well as

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Speaker 1: betting the Patriots for Belichick Coach of the Year. There's

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Speaker 1: just not the same value on the Patriots coach for

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Speaker 1: plus three hundred on a three to one return. I've

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Speaker 1: got three and a half to one, but three to

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Speaker 1: one return officially, now, yeah, three to one officially. You

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Speaker 1: can also take the Patriots to win the division. So

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Speaker 1: in order for him to win this award, they've got

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Speaker 1: to win the division. They can still do. So, Buffalo's

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Speaker 1: got a bunch of games left and obviously they have

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Speaker 1: a road trip to Foxborough. If they protect their home

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Speaker 1: field and the Patriots dropped to eight and five and Belichick,

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Speaker 1: the Bills will go to eight and four, there'll be

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Speaker 1: half a game up on the Patriots. Then they play

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Speaker 1: at the Bucks. Okay, can they lose that game? Absolutely

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Speaker 1: and lootlely they can lose that game. Then they're against

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Speaker 1: the Panthers, who are now going to be without Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: That should be a win. And they're at the Patriots

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Speaker 1: for a game thanks Giving like after Christmas rather, and

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Speaker 1: then they are home for the Falcons and home for

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Speaker 1: the Jets. Right games that they should win. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've seen crazier things happen in the NFL, and this

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Speaker 1: is the Buffalo Bills. You know, they can fall on

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Speaker 1: their face. So Bucks, Patriots, Patriots, they could have three

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Speaker 1: more losses. Buffalo could wind up this year ten and seven.

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Speaker 1: It's not crazy. If they are ten and seven and

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Speaker 1: the Patriots are eleven and six or better and they

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Speaker 1: win the AFC East, Belichick is your coach of the

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Speaker 1: year Belichick plus three hundred three to one Coach of

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Speaker 1: the year. Bet it now before the value gets sucked

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Speaker 1: out on Monday Night one unit official play Belichick Coach

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Speaker 1: of the Year. Okay, play number two. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football, Dallas taking on the Saints. Man, I

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Speaker 1: hate this number. Four and a half. I hate this number.

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Speaker 1: I would rather have this number be six and then

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Speaker 1: be able to tease it downtate the Cowboys. But it's not.

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Speaker 1: Tons of money's coming in on the Saints. Saints are

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Speaker 1: the pro play at the moment. Mike McCarthy is out.

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Speaker 1: Offensive line coach Jill Filman is out. Offensive line sits

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Speaker 1: coach is out. Right tackle Turn Steele is out. Numerous players,

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Speaker 1: eight players, and other coaches out for this game tonight,

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Speaker 1: including their head coach in Mike McCarthy. Okay, that is

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Speaker 1: causing a lot of people to be nervous as long

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Speaker 1: as well as Tasom Hill starting quarterback now for the Saints.

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Speaker 1: He will get off the the injury list and come

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Speaker 1: on and play here with a foot injury that he suffered.

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Speaker 1: He is going to play in this game now. Man.

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Speaker 1: This is tough. Teams tend to rally hard, but without

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Speaker 1: your head coach and everything else could be very, very difficult.

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Speaker 1: Dan Quinn's going to be your head coach of the

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Speaker 1: of the Dallas Cowboys. How much does that you know?

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Speaker 1: Do you like that? I don't know. I could hate that,

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Speaker 1: to be quite honest. Head to head he's four and

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Speaker 1: six against Sean Payton coaching. Edges got to go to

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Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. Taysom Hill, no idea what to

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Speaker 1: expect him. Although I don't like Trevor Simeon at all,

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Speaker 1: you guys know I love the Saints. I do What

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Speaker 1: about Elliott? How healthy is Zeke? Can you run the football? Now?

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Speaker 1: Dak's playing? Not huge? So you got Dak and you

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Speaker 1: got you know, Amari Cooper is not going to be there.

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Speaker 1: He's still on the COVID list. But they got Tony

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Speaker 1: Pollard and they've got some weapons to throw to. They

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Speaker 1: have more weapons than what the Saints are going to

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Speaker 1: have here. Alvin Kamara is going to be out. So man,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with this. I hate

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Speaker 1: the number. Okay, I am so ice cold. This is

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Speaker 1: what I'm doing. I'm laying the minus two hundred. I

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Speaker 1: never recommend to do this if you want to fade this,

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Speaker 1: if you don't want to follow this, don't. I don't

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Speaker 1: blame you one bit. Okay, I never do this, but

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Speaker 1: because of the way the week is going, I just

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Speaker 1: want to watch the ball go through the hoop. I

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Speaker 1: just need a lay up here. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: deal with the Cowboys kicking a field goal at the

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Speaker 1: end of the game, and you know, Cowboys up by three.

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Speaker 1: I need them to do you know what the Patriots

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Speaker 1: did on the Patriots? Who am I thinking of where

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Speaker 1: we covered, Like maybe it was Sunday night. I can't

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Speaker 1: remember where we got it, where we got a field goal?

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Speaker 1: We needed the three, we laid the three field goal

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Speaker 1: was kicked, they won by six. I feel like that's

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Speaker 1: what's gonna happen here for the Dallas Cowboys. I just

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Speaker 1: don't want to sweat that. I don't want to deal

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Speaker 1: with the number minus two hundred on the money line.

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Speaker 1: I'm just going to bet one full unit on the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys to win this game and that's it, and not

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Speaker 1: play around with any pointspread or anything else. Just Dallas

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Speaker 1: to win minus two hundred. You guys know, I never

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Speaker 1: lay this type of juice ever, But I just need

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Speaker 1: to do it because it's been such a bad week.

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Speaker 1: I've lost four straight units, you know, zho to eight.

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Speaker 1: I just need to win. It's all I'm gonna do.

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Speaker 1: Just give me Dallas Cowboys on the road to win

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Speaker 1: and not deal with the point spread. Win by one,

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Speaker 1: win by one hundred, I don't care. Just win the

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Speaker 1: football game and get me a W before we head

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Speaker 1: to the weekend. Because Friday, Saturday, and Sunday really Saturday,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be heavily committed because I absolutely love this

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Speaker 1: college football slate. I love Championship Saturday. I cannot wait

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Speaker 1: to sit in my couch the entire day. Patriots don't

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Speaker 1: play it on Monday. Sunday's games. I'm kind of I'm yawning.

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Speaker 1: I hate the card on Sunday. I think it sucks.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be very light on Sunday props mostly

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Speaker 1: one or two pickpicks, the long teaser, and that's about

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Speaker 1: it for us here on that. But Saturday. Yeah, I'll

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Speaker 1: be heavily, heavily committed on Saturday with a bunch of

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Speaker 1: bets and plays and can't wait to watch everything. I

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Speaker 1: don't know what to do with Alabama and Georgia. To

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Speaker 1: be quite honest, I don't know what to do with

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Speaker 1: a ten and a half point number with Michigan and Iowa,

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Speaker 1: so I'm gonna go. I'm into the lab today tomorrow

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Speaker 1: before Saturday for the podcast on Friday night to get going,

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Speaker 1: So Official plays one unit each Bill Belichick to win

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Speaker 1: Coach of the Year in the NFL at plus three

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Speaker 1: hundred future wager, and we're taking the Cowboys on the

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Speaker 1: money line on Thursday Night Football minus two hundred for

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Speaker 1: one unit. Man's Matt Parloch. You can follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each and every morning it's

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice Podcast. I was being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM