WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2022 Australian Open Tennis Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:14.960 Check it on Man No downn Thursday morning, January two. 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.320 It is the Beating the Book Podcast. We just finished 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:19.919 doing a megapod for wild Card we get in the NFL, 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:22.960 and Drew Dinsick, who was kind enough to do that 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:26.880 show with us, is also here to do our first 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:32.040 ever Beating the Book Tennis exclusive podcast. Got a lot 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.559 of requests to do this last year when we were 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.440 doing really well betting tennis all year long and specifically 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.720 the hardcourt season really crushed it. So my dream here 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.360 and by the way, thank you Drew for being here 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:46.880 once again, Thank you sir, Thank you. Um. My dream 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:49.479 was to have it be me, you and Dan Weston 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.519 from Tennis Ratings. Uh. Dano was going to be on 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:54.680 a numbers game with me tomorrow, So I'm gonna do 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.560 this part with you first, and then we'll throw on 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:58.960 Dano tomorrow with me on a numbers game and that 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:00.800 will be the tennis Podcas asked, what do you think 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.120 my goal should be in terms of listenership versus a 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:09.640 football podcast? Would that be? Like? Honestly, honestly, that is 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:12.920 an enormous win. But I will say you have you 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:18.000 have an especially dedicated audience, so I believe in them 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:20.760 that I know they care. I know they care about 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.600 tennis in their hearts, even if they're uh, you know 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.760 ultimately football guys. Uh, they care about this stuff. And 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:32.200 they and for sure, I mean, I don't think no 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.320 one would question you weren't being you. You were. You 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.440 were on the nails with a lot of your looks 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.479 last week last year at the in hardcourt season, UM 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.920 one overall was one of my most successful probably actually 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.400 was clearly from a just from a bottom line dollars 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.920 one standpoint, that was my most successful tennis year of 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:52.400 all time. UM and a lot of it was because 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.960 of the slams UM so very excited for two now 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.920 and would be I would be grateful for half as 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:04.040 much success to too half as much phenomenal. So it 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.160 is the Australian Open. The Australian Open begins state side 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:11.200 Sunday evening, Sunday night, right after or I guess during 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.560 the last NFL game. It probably starts right around then 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:16.120 on Sunday, so most people will obviously be paying attention 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.720 to football. We will be paying attention to both. The 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.640 first first question, do you do any betting the week 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:24.679 before the Australian open in Adelaide or Sydney or do 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:29.080 you stay away. I've been playing the just the match 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:33.959 by match pretty regularly, starting with the A t P Cup. Um, 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.280 I think you, I think you almost you almost have 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:40.400 to otherwise, you know the there's such a decent gap 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:45.760 and you can't really evaluate player form unless you have 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:51.440 skin in the game in the early tournaments. In my opinion, yeah, 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:53.160 A t P Cup I think told us a lot 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.680 about some of the contenders on the men's side. Um. 0:02:55.760 --> 0:03:00.160 And similarly, uh, the Adelaide tournament in particular on the 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.720 women's side was pretty pretty illustrative of some of the 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:08.120 top player form all as they say, well at Allied 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.800 with ashbody winning it. Um, let me just let's because 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.560 I know you skew more a TP so let's just 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.920 say briefly about the women's side, which I'll talk to 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.760 Dan more about. But that tournament in Adelaide ad Allied 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.240 ash Party is so far ahead of the field at 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:28.359 this point that would you consider a futures bet at 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.240 her at Like, how how short of a price would 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:36.320 you even go right now? On ash Party? She did 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:40.520 not get an especially favorable draw. I think that's important 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:45.000 to recognize uh. And in general, my rule of thumb 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:47.960 about getting involved in the futures market, particularly once you 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:51.720 know the draw, if your player has to get has 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:53.920 to do it themselves, if they have to do with 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:55.720 them themselves, if they're gonna have to beat all the 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.760 other competition to get the title themselves, you're almost better 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.040 off going match by match. You are getting involved with 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:05.000 the a shorter priced future, and I think that qualifies 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:08.000 for ash Party this year. Um. I do think she's 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.680 the rightful favorite if the draw doesn't give her any 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:13.280 gimmes and she's got to win all seven of them 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:16.720 on her own. Yes. Like last year, Ash Party got 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.960 an absolute dream draw and she was the short favorite 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:24.280 as well. Um. And in that sense, you were better 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.960 off taking the futures price for her because all of 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:29.200 the talented players in the Australian Open were on the 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.120 bottom half and there was gonna be chaos was gonna ensue. 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:33.520 You didn't know who was going to come off to 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:37.479 come out of that bottom um, and ultimately ash you know, 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.960 she went out in inglorious fashion before she even got 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:44.800 to the final um. But that was one of those 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:46.480 where you were never going to get as good of 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:49.000 a price by going match by match with her as 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:50.880 you would have just taking the futures. And I think 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:55.840 this year is opposite. Um. She has drawn Osaka potentially 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.640 in round four. Um. If Osaka has anywhere close to 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:03.920 the form we've seen from her UM in Australian opens past, 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.760 that match could be pretty close to a pick them 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.840 by a market. Um Osaka is not a guarantee to 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.240 get there by the way, She's got to go through 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.200 potentially Anna Samova and or Benchitch. My guess would be 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:19.400 Ana Samova, but of a tournament win as well in Australia. Yeah, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.160 she looks good. She looks good, and I know a 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:22.920 lot of people that locked in some hundred to ones 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:25.599 on her and they were devastated by the straw because 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:29.359 that's bad. Because it is bad. It is bad, um Bench. 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:32.440 It isn't like in super great form. She almost lost 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:33.960 a Dodine. I don't know if you saw that the 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:37.720 other Yeah, that was a that was a rough outing. 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.080 She ultimately wins, but then turns around and uh and 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.599 bows out. Um, She's she's still a dangerous player. Anna 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.159 Samova Bench. It is going to be one of the 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.240 better second round matches in the entire women's field. Uh 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.680 and then winner takes on Osaka, and then winner takes 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.680 on Barti. Um So, Bartie just even getting out of 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:56.120 her section is going to be a tough ask. If 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.279 she does get out of her section, her potential quarterfinal 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.520 opponents Sachary and Jabbor, both of the both of they 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.799 can both absolutely hold their own on this fast court. 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:08.560 Um So that's going to be a tough match. Is 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:12.720 phenomenally dangerous at this point, I think. But yeah, although 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:17.279 she did with did you see why she withdrew Reed? 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:21.120 The thing about that, yeah, the thing about these tournaments before, 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.240 before these slams though, as you very well, No, I'm 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:26.080 just sort of saying it out loud. You do wonder 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:28.680 in so many of these and that's what makes them some. 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:30.520 I'm not really frustrating, but because you know what you're 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:33.080 getting into is, you know, I had Madison Brangle as 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:36.240 a short dog yesterday and she broke I can't even 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:38.800 remember who she was playing, Um was it Kanye? I 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:40.640 can't even remember, but she broke whoever she was playing, 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:42.520 and then she got broke back and at three three 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.440 little injury, and that was the end of that. And 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:47.960 I just think that the first sign of anything before 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:53.440 a slam, they're like deuces. I'm out, Yeah, absolutely true. Um, 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.560 but yeah, back to the party point. Uh, you're probably 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:01.719 talking about Osaka in round four, so Ckery in the quarterfinals, 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:06.640 Kchkova or Podoza in the semifinals, and then somebody tough 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.120 in the finals, whoever comes out of that bottom half. 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.920 Let's say it's ega. Um that for if you just 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:16.920 moneyline role party over those over those four matches, you're 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:19.119 gonna do. You're gonna do better than three to one. 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.640 You're you're probably looking even if even if she is 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:25.560 nuclear hot and like carries her form from Adelaide straight 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:28.640 through hitting seventeen aces and match you know, winning every 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:31.520 service point, blah blah blah, you're still gonna You're still 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:33.640 gonna do better than three to one, is my gut. 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.800 And so I think that's the way I would attack 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:40.520 the women's side at this point. And yeah, she may 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.240 pick up an injury, you may see something you don't like, um, 0:07:43.400 --> 0:07:45.320 and you can you know, then you're not stuck with 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.000 that feature trying to figure out what to do with 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:48.760 that too. So that is a lot more a lot 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:51.040 more flexible when you lay it out just as you did. 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:54.080 I mean that is a murderers row down the stretch 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:57.600 of that tournament, because you're right. The Bodoza Credicova one 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.120 again for those who are not familiar with tennis, but 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:02.760 Doza was the player I won the most money on 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.600 calendar year one. She is a player who has found 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:12.440 her form um. Spanish player kri Jakova, who won the 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:15.360 French was that I can't even I can't even remember 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.120 with pandemic years now, who won when what she won 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:20.960 the French uh rid Jakova is also a very good 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.160 hardcourt player. She's not just a clay court specialist. And 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:25.800 then there's Ego and you and I talked about this 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:27.640 a little bit on a numbers game this past week, 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.440 which is, if I were making, if you forced me 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:34.000 to make it, make a futures bet on the women's side, 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:37.000 at the price you can get Ega at, I would 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.760 probably take Ega. The only thing with Ega is this 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:43.520 who obviously wanted Adelaide last year on hard court and 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:47.800 obviously famously won the French open Um the year before 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:51.680 that for some of us, more famously than others. Uh, 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:54.200 I think that she's like a really good she's a 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.839 really good hardcourt player, but I do wonder if there's 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.440 like this thing where she can't get over the Bardie hump. Yeah, 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:03.679 but she's still the best bet to me long shot wise, 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:07.720 and if you got involved before the draw, she was 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.480 the biggest winner of the draw in my opinion. She 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:16.400 she basically has the highest quality, highest elo, highest upside 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.520 of anyone on the bottom half of my opinion. Um, 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.440 people will point to Sabolanca, people will point to Contivite 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:28.319 people will may make a case for Muga Ruta, but ultimately, um, 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:32.360 there's no one that is. There's there's either it's in 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.440 my opinion at least he either Ega comes off, that 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:36.320 comes out of the bottom, or it's some dark horse. 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:40.440 Should be fun. And that wasn't even the side of 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:42.800 the Australian Open you wanted to talk about. Let's go 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.240 to the men's Let's go to the men's side. The 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.760 men's side. Obviously. For those who have been following every 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:51.520 sport on Earth and have missed the Novak Djokovic news, 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:52.440 I don't know what to tell you. This is the 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.160 biggest global story there's been but Novac Joker world push 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.960 alert for this. Yeah, we should get pushed, but we're 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.200 doing this Thursday earning, and we still don't know that 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.600 the fate of what's happening with Novak Djokovic. Novak Djokovic, 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:07.199 for those who don't know, as an anti vax guy, uh, 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:09.440 not a fan of the vaccines. Novak Djokovic the world 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:13.360 number one and Australia basically under lockdown for two years now, 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.320 that whole population generally speaking, and so they have strict 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:22.280 rules on the federal level. But Novak got a Victorian exemption, 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:27.200 so he traveled to Australia under that guy's with that 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:29.680 visa thinking he's going to play in the Australian Open. 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:35.080 Then uh, that was the federal government then said sorry, buddy, 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:39.080 we're canceling your visa, after which on a scheduled appointment 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:44.640 this past Monday, a judge turned that around and reinstated 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.600 the visa. So Novak is thinking he's playing again. We 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:52.679 get to the draw yesterday, they postponed the draw because 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.640 it's still not a hundred percent because a a immigration 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.960 minister can still overturn that. I think I got all 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:03.600 that Australian mechanics correct, and so then they went ahead 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.880 and they did the draw anyway. They postponed about an 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:07.760 hour and a half. They did the draw last night, 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:10.360 and so no Vac is the number one seed. But 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.800 here's the deal, Drew. So if Novak gets kicked out 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:17.760 of the country for lack of a better term, before 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:23.439 the first round matches scheduled, then they can rejigger the seating. 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.520 If he gets kicked out after they give a time 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:30.880 for the first round match, which should be happening here 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:35.880 and within I don't knows whatever it is, then a 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:39.280 lucky loser from the qualities would step into his spot, 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:42.640 and as you were saying before affair, and not not 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.960 so lucky given the draw. But you get the idea. 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:48.520 So we are still as we do this. You know, 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.800 you and I famously talked about this. I took Sasha 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:54.280 Zverev bets in December at plus six fifty because like 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.760 you and I guess I'm I'm I'm jumping on your 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.040 topic sentence. But you think there's three people that can 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:02.920 win this whole thing. Yeah, this is a three man Yeah. 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.480 I mean in general, if you are new ish to 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:12.040 a TP major, you know, slam slam outright betting, it's 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.040 pretty easy to Winnow it down to a very narrow field. 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:20.040 Basically the opposite of golf, the opposite of the women's side, 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:22.360 the women's side. Yes, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, right, but 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.720 you know you gotta you gotta slam. In golf, you 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:28.319 can reasonably talk yourself into eight players. You know, I'm 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:29.960 gonna I'm gonna put I'm gonna put a card together. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:31.880 We're gonna hit all any of these guys, somebody, one 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:34.719 of these guys is gonna pop. Um, it's not. It's 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:38.360 usually more much more straightforward on the men's side to 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:42.040 narrow it down to who can realistically win. And it's 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.200 because they play best of five in the slams. And 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:50.480 while upsets are entirely common at this tournament, particularly in 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.320 the early rounds, that is there's a reason for that 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.840 is because a lot of the guys who have you know, 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.640 who have ranking points, who come in, um, you know, 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:02.400 with with high expectations by the market, they're not in 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.320 great shape, they haven't played a ton of tennis this 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.520 time of year, and they can get upset pretty you know, 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.880 their upsets are common because you know, all you need 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:10.680 is one guy to get hot from serve. It's a 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.880 fast court. You could have unfavorable conditions on any given 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.120 day because the heat is a factor here. Um. And uh, 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.320 you know, so upsets in the in week one are common, 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.040 upsets in week two are rare. And it's because of 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.679 the best of five, you know, the format, And I 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:30.720 mean I enjoy it as a better because it makes betting, 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.480 you know, it's it makes it much more straightforward. Um. 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.600 But as you look across this year's slate of players, 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:41.400 there are three with any kind of reasonable chance of 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:44.800 winning this title who have previously won a Slam. One 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.160 of those is Medvedev, who won his first Slam a 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:51.880 couple of months ago. Right. Another yeah, another one of 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.319 those is Raphael and the Doll, who is only ever 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.880 one here once and it was a million years ago, 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.199 and it's coming off of a major knee injury which 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:01.280 forced him to miss half of the season last year. 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.600 The other guy is Novak Djokovic, and so it's it 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.920 is you know, if he ultimately gets popped and is 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:14.080 not in the field. Um, that makes this utterly wide open. Uh, 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.079 you know, just in the minds of the players, because 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:19.360 you will have somebody either winning their second ever Slam, 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.400 their second ever Australian Open, or you know, or a 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:26.520 debutante here and Um, you know, I think I think 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:28.800 your your entire breakdown was correct. And I almost think 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.560 if the immigration officials reject the visa, it's something like 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.600 a three year ban from the country of Australia. Like 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.040 it's it's not trivial what happens here. And that obviously 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:43.080 that impacts is um, that impacts his quest for most 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.640 Slams all time, obviously because he typically this is his 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.000 this is his home court after you know, after Wimbledon, 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.160 and Wimbledon is really only his his home court now 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.560 because he dethroned Federer, and because there's not a lot 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.640 of other guys with grass quality and you know, on 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:02.760 tour now, but right Australian Open, I believe it is yeah, 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.040 and and in and in general, if you just look 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.200 at his match by match scores, this is where he's 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.480 been the most dominant, right, So it's it's there. There 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.520 are those two factors definitely play into it. Um and Yeah. 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.040 So getting involved in the outright market, you either have 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.040 to have some sort of conviction whether Djokovic is going 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.960 to play or not, UM or in your case, in 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.640 the case is Vere, I think you bought at the 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:29.080 right time with the player who stood to gain the most, 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.560 because because the way the seating worked, Medvedev was always 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.560 going to be to Djokovic was always going to be one, 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:37.400 and they were always going to be on opposite sides 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:38.880 of the draw, so they were never going to meet 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:43.120 until the final. That was set in stone, right. The 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:45.480 Zverev was the wild card because he could have ended 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.920 up on the top or the bottom because it's random, 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.640 and but that doesn't really help him because he was 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.640 likely gonna have to beat both guys if he wanted 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.720 to win the title. Um, and he ultimately is he's 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.400 the big winner here if ultimately if Djokovic goes out, 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.560 because then all of a sudden, one half of the 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.080 draws his to lose and he only has to potentially 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.920 deal with Medvedev in the final. And you can convince 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.400 me pretty easily that that's going to be more or less. Uh, 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:13.600 you know a little bit of a pickup match juiced 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:17.000 in favor of Medvedev. Likely, what would you say to someone, 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.560 It's like, that's great that you got him at plus 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.560 six fifty kill, but what about now where he's like 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:25.480 plus three fifty Knowing that the Djokovic thing is still 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:28.000 in the balance, would you make a plus three fifty 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:33.160 bet on Zeev, Zverev Sasa Farev to win it again? 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.160 Kind of going back to the key philosophy is he 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:37.200 can have to do it himself or are you rooting 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:40.360 for chaos? I think you're rooting for chaos with him 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:45.480 a chaotic event Djokovic gets bounced, Okay, honestly, yea, that's 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:49.520 your role. Bet Djokovic gets bounced. Uh. You know, Zverev 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.280 doesn't have to do it himself. Push comes to shove. 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.920 If you remember very clearly, like one of the angles 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:59.720 why you bet Medvedev uh in the US Open last 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.960 year was because of this exact scenario. You could see 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:04.640 it on paper. That was going to be a hot, 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.600 humid night Verevan Djokovic, We're gonna have to go head 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:09.120 to head. That was going to be a blood bath, 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:11.040 and then it was going to be a short turnaround 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:14.560 for Djokovic or Zverev whoever want to face arrested Medvedev 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:17.720 in the final, and so that almost certainly the fatigue 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:22.160 was in favor of Medvedev. UM similar situation here, you're 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.600 probably you know, if if both players get to uh, 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:29.280 the semifinals. Um. Then you know, I still gives vera 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:32.280 of a puncher's chance in that one. He's definitely not Um. 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.760 You know, he's not going to be the favorite in 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:38.159 that match, certainly, UM, but he'll have a shot. UM. 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.520 And then again, you're rooting for chaos where either Djokovic 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:49.000 himself gets deported or um, the whole chaotic nature disrupts 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:51.760 his performance, which is something that I haven't heard many 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:57.119 people talk about, but it's very possible. Um. Djokovic is 0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:01.239 a creature of habit. He has a very specific routine. Uh. 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.400 In instances in the past where it's been disrupted, he's 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:08.200 performed poorly. Uh, and he gets very angry when he's 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.600 not the crowd favorite. Oh yo, I didn't even think 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.280 about that, but yes, you're absolutely right. And he usually 0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:16.560 has the crowd here and I don't think that there's 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.520 any likelihood he's going to have the crowd this year. 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.800 So so just yeah, go ahead. I mean, I'm started 0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:24.560 going to interrupt. I was gonna ask you no, No, 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:26.720 I think I think that's the whole that's the whole case. 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.120 You're you know, that's that's the bear case for Djokovic, 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:32.000 even beyond you know, even if he plays this tournament, 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:36.600 is he anywhere close to you know, a normal year 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.680 for him at the Australian Open. No, no way. So 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:41.600 it's you know, there there are a lot of angles, 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.320 I think, and actually, you know, anyone listening, I ultimately 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.120 I don't have an issue getting involved with Sev right now. 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:50.639 I think he got a pretty decent draw here. No 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:54.000 one really scares me in that quarter, even Nadal Um 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.800 so he's likely your quarter two champion. Yeah, if you 0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:02.120 can find quarter markets, absolutely bet according like um, sure, 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.840 yeah for sure. So so did you make any did 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:08.439 you make any Medvedev future wagers at all? Did you 0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:11.600 make it? That's the only that's the only thing I've 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:14.919 got to this point. And it was a small steak 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:19.840 because I was concerned about the likelihood of no Djokovic 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.639 and then Zverev and Medvedev on the same half of 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.199 the draw, which is which is that would have that 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:27.679 would have that would have been that I would have 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:33.639 been real chapped. That happened to um thankfully, But ultimately, 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:37.440 ultimately that's not what we're looking at here. And um, 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.200 you know, I mean we can go quarter by quarter 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.520 if you want to talk about the actual the way 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:45.520 that this is set up here. But overall, yeah, overall, 0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:48.879 I was pretty pretty satisfied with the way that the 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.399 draw broke from Medvedev. So so let's do it just 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:53.480 like ninety seconds on each quarter. And then I want 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.200 to ask you one final question, which is, without knowing 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.639 lines of the individual matches yet obviously without knowing the 0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:04.280 first matches, who are some of the players generally bubbling 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:08.920 under that you think the market will probably under rate 0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:11.120 or perhaps over rate as well. But let's do it. Uh, 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.320 let's do a quarter by quarter if you will. The 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.200 floor is your, sir, sure? So if you had asked 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.960 me pre draw, I would have told you, see where 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:24.359 Yonic center lance. He's an up and coming player, He's 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.760 obviously he's he's a little bit of a of a 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:29.280 sharp favorite. So you're not going to get an amazing 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:31.760 price on him. Um. But I was curious to see 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:33.800 where he lands because he's got the youth, he's he 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.720 can he can handle the best of five. Um, and 0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:39.320 you're not. I'm not worried about his fitness coming off 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:41.600 of a layoff, um like I would with some of 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.840 the older players. UM. Another guy that absolutely popped at 0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:50.399 the ADP Cup was Felix Alger alias alias however you 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:54.240 want to pronounce that f a A um, And I 0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:56.800 was excited. I was looking hard at his futures. But 0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:01.320 you know, but he he has one kryptonite, which is Medvedev. 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:04.000 Is he cannot be medved up period. He's gonna need 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:07.000 someone else to take Medvedev out. And unfortunately for f 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.040 a A he landed in Medvedev section or as his 0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:13.200 quarter um. So they would face off in the fourth 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.440 quarterfinals and I would make I would make Medvedev about 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:19.000 minus three fifty in that head to head. So there's 0:21:19.040 --> 0:21:21.520 not much value anymore in f a A, even though 0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:24.480 it is worth watching some of his matches, um, particularly 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:26.119 round one. Did you see who they put him up 0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:29.359