Speaker 1: Check it on Man No downn Thursday morning, January two.
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book Podcast. We just finished
Speaker 1: doing a megapod for wild Card we get in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and Drew Dinsick, who was kind enough to do that
Speaker 1: show with us, is also here to do our first
Speaker 1: ever Beating the Book Tennis exclusive podcast. Got a lot
Speaker 1: of requests to do this last year when we were
Speaker 1: doing really well betting tennis all year long and specifically
Speaker 1: the hardcourt season really crushed it. So my dream here
Speaker 1: and by the way, thank you Drew for being here
Speaker 1: once again, Thank you sir, Thank you. Um. My dream
Speaker 1: was to have it be me, you and Dan Weston
Speaker 1: from Tennis Ratings. Uh. Dano was going to be on
Speaker 1: a numbers game with me tomorrow, So I'm gonna do
Speaker 1: this part with you first, and then we'll throw on
Speaker 1: Dano tomorrow with me on a numbers game and that
Speaker 1: will be the tennis Podcas asked, what do you think
Speaker 1: my goal should be in terms of listenership versus a
Speaker 1: football podcast? Would that be? Like? Honestly, honestly, that is
Speaker 1: an enormous win. But I will say you have you
Speaker 1: have an especially dedicated audience, so I believe in them
Speaker 1: that I know they care. I know they care about
Speaker 1: tennis in their hearts, even if they're uh, you know
Speaker 1: ultimately football guys. Uh, they care about this stuff. And
Speaker 1: they and for sure, I mean, I don't think no
Speaker 1: one would question you weren't being you. You were. You
Speaker 1: were on the nails with a lot of your looks
Speaker 1: last week last year at the in hardcourt season, UM
Speaker 1: one overall was one of my most successful probably actually
Speaker 1: was clearly from a just from a bottom line dollars
Speaker 1: one standpoint, that was my most successful tennis year of
Speaker 1: all time. UM and a lot of it was because
Speaker 1: of the slams UM so very excited for two now
Speaker 1: and would be I would be grateful for half as
Speaker 1: much success to too half as much phenomenal. So it
Speaker 1: is the Australian Open. The Australian Open begins state side
Speaker 1: Sunday evening, Sunday night, right after or I guess during
Speaker 1: the last NFL game. It probably starts right around then
Speaker 1: on Sunday, so most people will obviously be paying attention
Speaker 1: to football. We will be paying attention to both. The
Speaker 1: first first question, do you do any betting the week
Speaker 1: before the Australian open in Adelaide or Sydney or do
Speaker 1: you stay away. I've been playing the just the match
Speaker 1: by match pretty regularly, starting with the A t P Cup. Um,
Speaker 1: I think you, I think you almost you almost have
Speaker 1: to otherwise, you know the there's such a decent gap
Speaker 1: and you can't really evaluate player form unless you have
Speaker 1: skin in the game in the early tournaments. In my opinion, yeah,
Speaker 1: A t P Cup I think told us a lot
Speaker 1: about some of the contenders on the men's side. Um.
Speaker 1: And similarly, uh, the Adelaide tournament in particular on the
Speaker 1: women's side was pretty pretty illustrative of some of the
Speaker 1: top player form all as they say, well at Allied
Speaker 1: with ashbody winning it. Um, let me just let's because
Speaker 1: I know you skew more a TP so let's just
Speaker 1: say briefly about the women's side, which I'll talk to
Speaker 1: Dan more about. But that tournament in Adelaide ad Allied
Speaker 1: ash Party is so far ahead of the field at
Speaker 1: this point that would you consider a futures bet at
Speaker 1: her at Like, how how short of a price would
Speaker 1: you even go right now? On ash Party? She did
Speaker 1: not get an especially favorable draw. I think that's important
Speaker 1: to recognize uh. And in general, my rule of thumb
Speaker 1: about getting involved in the futures market, particularly once you
Speaker 1: know the draw, if your player has to get has
Speaker 1: to do it themselves, if they have to do with
Speaker 1: them themselves, if they're gonna have to beat all the
Speaker 1: other competition to get the title themselves, you're almost better
Speaker 1: off going match by match. You are getting involved with
Speaker 1: the a shorter priced future, and I think that qualifies
Speaker 1: for ash Party this year. Um. I do think she's
Speaker 1: the rightful favorite if the draw doesn't give her any
Speaker 1: gimmes and she's got to win all seven of them
Speaker 1: on her own. Yes. Like last year, Ash Party got
Speaker 1: an absolute dream draw and she was the short favorite
Speaker 1: as well. Um. And in that sense, you were better
Speaker 1: off taking the futures price for her because all of
Speaker 1: the talented players in the Australian Open were on the
Speaker 1: bottom half and there was gonna be chaos was gonna ensue.
Speaker 1: You didn't know who was going to come off to
Speaker 1: come out of that bottom um, and ultimately ash you know,
Speaker 1: she went out in inglorious fashion before she even got
Speaker 1: to the final um. But that was one of those
Speaker 1: where you were never going to get as good of
Speaker 1: a price by going match by match with her as
Speaker 1: you would have just taking the futures. And I think
Speaker 1: this year is opposite. Um. She has drawn Osaka potentially
Speaker 1: in round four. Um. If Osaka has anywhere close to
Speaker 1: the form we've seen from her UM in Australian opens past,
Speaker 1: that match could be pretty close to a pick them
Speaker 1: by a market. Um Osaka is not a guarantee to
Speaker 1: get there by the way, She's got to go through
Speaker 1: potentially Anna Samova and or Benchitch. My guess would be
Speaker 1: Ana Samova, but of a tournament win as well in Australia. Yeah,
Speaker 1: she looks good. She looks good, and I know a
Speaker 1: lot of people that locked in some hundred to ones
Speaker 1: on her and they were devastated by the straw because
Speaker 1: that's bad. Because it is bad. It is bad, um Bench.
Speaker 1: It isn't like in super great form. She almost lost
Speaker 1: a Dodine. I don't know if you saw that the
Speaker 1: other Yeah, that was a that was a rough outing.
Speaker 1: She ultimately wins, but then turns around and uh and
Speaker 1: bows out. Um, She's she's still a dangerous player. Anna
Speaker 1: Samova Bench. It is going to be one of the
Speaker 1: better second round matches in the entire women's field. Uh
Speaker 1: and then winner takes on Osaka, and then winner takes
Speaker 1: on Barti. Um So, Bartie just even getting out of
Speaker 1: her section is going to be a tough ask. If
Speaker 1: she does get out of her section, her potential quarterfinal
Speaker 1: opponents Sachary and Jabbor, both of the both of they
Speaker 1: can both absolutely hold their own on this fast court.
Speaker 1: Um So that's going to be a tough match. Is
Speaker 1: phenomenally dangerous at this point, I think. But yeah, although
Speaker 1: she did with did you see why she withdrew Reed?
Speaker 1: The thing about that, yeah, the thing about these tournaments before,
Speaker 1: before these slams though, as you very well, No, I'm
Speaker 1: just sort of saying it out loud. You do wonder
Speaker 1: in so many of these and that's what makes them some.
Speaker 1: I'm not really frustrating, but because you know what you're
Speaker 1: getting into is, you know, I had Madison Brangle as
Speaker 1: a short dog yesterday and she broke I can't even
Speaker 1: remember who she was playing, Um was it Kanye? I
Speaker 1: can't even remember, but she broke whoever she was playing,
Speaker 1: and then she got broke back and at three three
Speaker 1: little injury, and that was the end of that. And
Speaker 1: I just think that the first sign of anything before
Speaker 1: a slam, they're like deuces. I'm out, Yeah, absolutely true. Um,
Speaker 1: but yeah, back to the party point. Uh, you're probably
Speaker 1: talking about Osaka in round four, so Ckery in the quarterfinals,
Speaker 1: Kchkova or Podoza in the semifinals, and then somebody tough
Speaker 1: in the finals, whoever comes out of that bottom half.
Speaker 1: Let's say it's ega. Um that for if you just
Speaker 1: moneyline role party over those over those four matches, you're
Speaker 1: gonna do. You're gonna do better than three to one.
Speaker 1: You're you're probably looking even if even if she is
Speaker 1: nuclear hot and like carries her form from Adelaide straight
Speaker 1: through hitting seventeen aces and match you know, winning every
Speaker 1: service point, blah blah blah, you're still gonna You're still
Speaker 1: gonna do better than three to one, is my gut.
Speaker 1: And so I think that's the way I would attack
Speaker 1: the women's side at this point. And yeah, she may
Speaker 1: pick up an injury, you may see something you don't like, um,
Speaker 1: and you can you know, then you're not stuck with
Speaker 1: that feature trying to figure out what to do with
Speaker 1: that too. So that is a lot more a lot
Speaker 1: more flexible when you lay it out just as you did.
Speaker 1: I mean that is a murderers row down the stretch
Speaker 1: of that tournament, because you're right. The Bodoza Credicova one
Speaker 1: again for those who are not familiar with tennis, but
Speaker 1: Doza was the player I won the most money on
Speaker 1: calendar year one. She is a player who has found
Speaker 1: her form um. Spanish player kri Jakova, who won the
Speaker 1: French was that I can't even I can't even remember
Speaker 1: with pandemic years now, who won when what she won
Speaker 1: the French uh rid Jakova is also a very good
Speaker 1: hardcourt player. She's not just a clay court specialist. And
Speaker 1: then there's Ego and you and I talked about this
Speaker 1: a little bit on a numbers game this past week,
Speaker 1: which is, if I were making, if you forced me
Speaker 1: to make it, make a futures bet on the women's side,
Speaker 1: at the price you can get Ega at, I would
Speaker 1: probably take Ega. The only thing with Ega is this
Speaker 1: who obviously wanted Adelaide last year on hard court and
Speaker 1: obviously famously won the French open Um the year before
Speaker 1: that for some of us, more famously than others. Uh,
Speaker 1: I think that she's like a really good she's a
Speaker 1: really good hardcourt player, but I do wonder if there's
Speaker 1: like this thing where she can't get over the Bardie hump. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but she's still the best bet to me long shot wise,
Speaker 1: and if you got involved before the draw, she was
Speaker 1: the biggest winner of the draw in my opinion. She
Speaker 1: she basically has the highest quality, highest elo, highest upside
Speaker 1: of anyone on the bottom half of my opinion. Um,
Speaker 1: people will point to Sabolanca, people will point to Contivite
Speaker 1: people will may make a case for Muga Ruta, but ultimately, um,
Speaker 1: there's no one that is. There's there's either it's in
Speaker 1: my opinion at least he either Ega comes off, that
Speaker 1: comes out of the bottom, or it's some dark horse.
Speaker 1: Should be fun. And that wasn't even the side of
Speaker 1: the Australian Open you wanted to talk about. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the men's Let's go to the men's side. The
Speaker 1: men's side. Obviously. For those who have been following every
Speaker 1: sport on Earth and have missed the Novak Djokovic news,
Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you. This is the
Speaker 1: biggest global story there's been but Novac Joker world push
Speaker 1: alert for this. Yeah, we should get pushed, but we're
Speaker 1: doing this Thursday earning, and we still don't know that
Speaker 1: the fate of what's happening with Novak Djokovic. Novak Djokovic,
Speaker 1: for those who don't know, as an anti vax guy, uh,
Speaker 1: not a fan of the vaccines. Novak Djokovic the world
Speaker 1: number one and Australia basically under lockdown for two years now,
Speaker 1: that whole population generally speaking, and so they have strict
Speaker 1: rules on the federal level. But Novak got a Victorian exemption,
Speaker 1: so he traveled to Australia under that guy's with that
Speaker 1: visa thinking he's going to play in the Australian Open.
Speaker 1: Then uh, that was the federal government then said sorry, buddy,
Speaker 1: we're canceling your visa, after which on a scheduled appointment
Speaker 1: this past Monday, a judge turned that around and reinstated
Speaker 1: the visa. So Novak is thinking he's playing again. We
Speaker 1: get to the draw yesterday, they postponed the draw because
Speaker 1: it's still not a hundred percent because a a immigration
Speaker 1: minister can still overturn that. I think I got all
Speaker 1: that Australian mechanics correct, and so then they went ahead
Speaker 1: and they did the draw anyway. They postponed about an
Speaker 1: hour and a half. They did the draw last night,
Speaker 1: and so no Vac is the number one seed. But
Speaker 1: here's the deal, Drew. So if Novak gets kicked out
Speaker 1: of the country for lack of a better term, before
Speaker 1: the first round matches scheduled, then they can rejigger the seating.
Speaker 1: If he gets kicked out after they give a time
Speaker 1: for the first round match, which should be happening here
Speaker 1: and within I don't knows whatever it is, then a
Speaker 1: lucky loser from the qualities would step into his spot,
Speaker 1: and as you were saying before affair, and not not
Speaker 1: so lucky given the draw. But you get the idea.
Speaker 1: So we are still as we do this. You know,
Speaker 1: you and I famously talked about this. I took Sasha
Speaker 1: Zverev bets in December at plus six fifty because like
Speaker 1: you and I guess I'm I'm I'm jumping on your
Speaker 1: topic sentence. But you think there's three people that can
Speaker 1: win this whole thing. Yeah, this is a three man Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean in general, if you are new ish to
Speaker 1: a TP major, you know, slam slam outright betting, it's
Speaker 1: pretty easy to Winnow it down to a very narrow field.
Speaker 1: Basically the opposite of golf, the opposite of the women's side,
Speaker 1: the women's side. Yes, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, right, but
Speaker 1: you know you gotta you gotta slam. In golf, you
Speaker 1: can reasonably talk yourself into eight players. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna put I'm gonna put a card together.
Speaker 1: We're gonna hit all any of these guys, somebody, one
Speaker 1: of these guys is gonna pop. Um, it's not. It's
Speaker 1: usually more much more straightforward on the men's side to
Speaker 1: narrow it down to who can realistically win. And it's
Speaker 1: because they play best of five in the slams. And
Speaker 1: while upsets are entirely common at this tournament, particularly in
Speaker 1: the early rounds, that is there's a reason for that
Speaker 1: is because a lot of the guys who have you know,
Speaker 1: who have ranking points, who come in, um, you know,
Speaker 1: with with high expectations by the market, they're not in
Speaker 1: great shape, they haven't played a ton of tennis this
Speaker 1: time of year, and they can get upset pretty you know,
Speaker 1: their upsets are common because you know, all you need
Speaker 1: is one guy to get hot from serve. It's a
Speaker 1: fast court. You could have unfavorable conditions on any given
Speaker 1: day because the heat is a factor here. Um. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know, so upsets in the in week one are common,
Speaker 1: upsets in week two are rare. And it's because of
Speaker 1: the best of five, you know, the format, And I
Speaker 1: mean I enjoy it as a better because it makes betting,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it makes it much more straightforward. Um.
Speaker 1: But as you look across this year's slate of players,
Speaker 1: there are three with any kind of reasonable chance of
Speaker 1: winning this title who have previously won a Slam. One
Speaker 1: of those is Medvedev, who won his first Slam a
Speaker 1: couple of months ago. Right. Another yeah, another one of
Speaker 1: those is Raphael and the Doll, who is only ever
Speaker 1: one here once and it was a million years ago,
Speaker 1: and it's coming off of a major knee injury which
Speaker 1: forced him to miss half of the season last year.
Speaker 1: The other guy is Novak Djokovic, and so it's it
Speaker 1: is you know, if he ultimately gets popped and is
Speaker 1: not in the field. Um, that makes this utterly wide open. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, just in the minds of the players, because
Speaker 1: you will have somebody either winning their second ever Slam,
Speaker 1: their second ever Australian Open, or you know, or a
Speaker 1: debutante here and Um, you know, I think I think
Speaker 1: your your entire breakdown was correct. And I almost think
Speaker 1: if the immigration officials reject the visa, it's something like
Speaker 1: a three year ban from the country of Australia. Like
Speaker 1: it's it's not trivial what happens here. And that obviously
Speaker 1: that impacts is um, that impacts his quest for most
Speaker 1: Slams all time, obviously because he typically this is his
Speaker 1: this is his home court after you know, after Wimbledon,
Speaker 1: and Wimbledon is really only his his home court now
Speaker 1: because he dethroned Federer, and because there's not a lot
Speaker 1: of other guys with grass quality and you know, on
Speaker 1: tour now, but right Australian Open, I believe it is yeah,
Speaker 1: and and in and in general, if you just look
Speaker 1: at his match by match scores, this is where he's
Speaker 1: been the most dominant, right, So it's it's there. There
Speaker 1: are those two factors definitely play into it. Um and Yeah.
Speaker 1: So getting involved in the outright market, you either have
Speaker 1: to have some sort of conviction whether Djokovic is going
Speaker 1: to play or not, UM or in your case, in
Speaker 1: the case is Vere, I think you bought at the
Speaker 1: right time with the player who stood to gain the most,
Speaker 1: because because the way the seating worked, Medvedev was always
Speaker 1: going to be to Djokovic was always going to be one,
Speaker 1: and they were always going to be on opposite sides
Speaker 1: of the draw, so they were never going to meet
Speaker 1: until the final. That was set in stone, right. The
Speaker 1: Zverev was the wild card because he could have ended
Speaker 1: up on the top or the bottom because it's random,
Speaker 1: and but that doesn't really help him because he was
Speaker 1: likely gonna have to beat both guys if he wanted
Speaker 1: to win the title. Um, and he ultimately is he's
Speaker 1: the big winner here if ultimately if Djokovic goes out,
Speaker 1: because then all of a sudden, one half of the
Speaker 1: draws his to lose and he only has to potentially
Speaker 1: deal with Medvedev in the final. And you can convince
Speaker 1: me pretty easily that that's going to be more or less. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know a little bit of a pickup match juiced
Speaker 1: in favor of Medvedev. Likely, what would you say to someone,
Speaker 1: It's like, that's great that you got him at plus
Speaker 1: six fifty kill, but what about now where he's like
Speaker 1: plus three fifty Knowing that the Djokovic thing is still
Speaker 1: in the balance, would you make a plus three fifty
Speaker 1: bet on Zeev, Zverev Sasa Farev to win it again?
Speaker 1: Kind of going back to the key philosophy is he
Speaker 1: can have to do it himself or are you rooting
Speaker 1: for chaos? I think you're rooting for chaos with him
Speaker 1: a chaotic event Djokovic gets bounced, Okay, honestly, yea, that's
Speaker 1: your role. Bet Djokovic gets bounced. Uh. You know, Zverev
Speaker 1: doesn't have to do it himself. Push comes to shove.
Speaker 1: If you remember very clearly, like one of the angles
Speaker 1: why you bet Medvedev uh in the US Open last
Speaker 1: year was because of this exact scenario. You could see
Speaker 1: it on paper. That was going to be a hot,
Speaker 1: humid night Verevan Djokovic, We're gonna have to go head
Speaker 1: to head. That was going to be a blood bath,
Speaker 1: and then it was going to be a short turnaround
Speaker 1: for Djokovic or Zverev whoever want to face arrested Medvedev
Speaker 1: in the final, and so that almost certainly the fatigue
Speaker 1: was in favor of Medvedev. UM similar situation here, you're
Speaker 1: probably you know, if if both players get to uh,
Speaker 1: the semifinals. Um. Then you know, I still gives vera
Speaker 1: of a puncher's chance in that one. He's definitely not Um.
Speaker 1: You know, he's not going to be the favorite in
Speaker 1: that match, certainly, UM, but he'll have a shot. UM.
Speaker 1: And then again, you're rooting for chaos where either Djokovic
Speaker 1: himself gets deported or um, the whole chaotic nature disrupts
Speaker 1: his performance, which is something that I haven't heard many
Speaker 1: people talk about, but it's very possible. Um. Djokovic is
Speaker 1: a creature of habit. He has a very specific routine. Uh.
Speaker 1: In instances in the past where it's been disrupted, he's
Speaker 1: performed poorly. Uh, and he gets very angry when he's
Speaker 1: not the crowd favorite. Oh yo, I didn't even think
Speaker 1: about that, but yes, you're absolutely right. And he usually
Speaker 1: has the crowd here and I don't think that there's
Speaker 1: any likelihood he's going to have the crowd this year.
Speaker 1: So so just yeah, go ahead. I mean, I'm started
Speaker 1: going to interrupt. I was gonna ask you no, No,
Speaker 1: I think I think that's the whole that's the whole case.
Speaker 1: You're you know, that's that's the bear case for Djokovic,
Speaker 1: even beyond you know, even if he plays this tournament,
Speaker 1: is he anywhere close to you know, a normal year
Speaker 1: for him at the Australian Open. No, no way. So
Speaker 1: it's you know, there there are a lot of angles,
Speaker 1: I think, and actually, you know, anyone listening, I ultimately
Speaker 1: I don't have an issue getting involved with Sev right now.
Speaker 1: I think he got a pretty decent draw here. No
Speaker 1: one really scares me in that quarter, even Nadal Um
Speaker 1: so he's likely your quarter two champion. Yeah, if you
Speaker 1: can find quarter markets, absolutely bet according like um, sure,
Speaker 1: yeah for sure. So so did you make any did
Speaker 1: you make any Medvedev future wagers at all? Did you
Speaker 1: make it? That's the only that's the only thing I've
Speaker 1: got to this point. And it was a small steak
Speaker 1: because I was concerned about the likelihood of no Djokovic
Speaker 1: and then Zverev and Medvedev on the same half of
Speaker 1: the draw, which is which is that would have that
Speaker 1: would have that would have been that I would have
Speaker 1: been real chapped. That happened to um thankfully, But ultimately,
Speaker 1: ultimately that's not what we're looking at here. And um,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean we can go quarter by quarter
Speaker 1: if you want to talk about the actual the way
Speaker 1: that this is set up here. But overall, yeah, overall,
Speaker 1: I was pretty pretty satisfied with the way that the
Speaker 1: draw broke from Medvedev. So so let's do it just
Speaker 1: like ninety seconds on each quarter. And then I want
Speaker 1: to ask you one final question, which is, without knowing
Speaker 1: lines of the individual matches yet obviously without knowing the
Speaker 1: first matches, who are some of the players generally bubbling
Speaker 1: under that you think the market will probably under rate
Speaker 1: or perhaps over rate as well. But let's do it. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's do a quarter by quarter if you will. The
Speaker 1: floor is your, sir, sure? So if you had asked
Speaker 1: me pre draw, I would have told you, see where
Speaker 1: Yonic center lance. He's an up and coming player, He's
Speaker 1: obviously he's he's a little bit of a of a
Speaker 1: sharp favorite. So you're not going to get an amazing
Speaker 1: price on him. Um. But I was curious to see
Speaker 1: where he lands because he's got the youth, he's he
Speaker 1: can he can handle the best of five. Um, and
Speaker 1: you're not. I'm not worried about his fitness coming off
Speaker 1: of a layoff, um like I would with some of
Speaker 1: the older players. UM. Another guy that absolutely popped at
Speaker 1: the ADP Cup was Felix Alger alias alias however you
Speaker 1: want to pronounce that f a A um, And I
Speaker 1: was excited. I was looking hard at his futures. But
Speaker 1: you know, but he he has one kryptonite, which is Medvedev.
Speaker 1: Is he cannot be medved up period. He's gonna need
Speaker 1: someone else to take Medvedev out. And unfortunately for f
Speaker 1: a A he landed in Medvedev section or as his
Speaker 1: quarter um. So they would face off in the fourth
Speaker 1: quarterfinals and I would make I would make Medvedev about
Speaker 1: minus three fifty in that head to head. So there's
Speaker 1: not much value anymore in f a A, even though
Speaker 1: it is worth watching some of his matches, um, particularly
Speaker 1: round one. Did you see who they put him up
Speaker 1: against Russel Ory in the fourth quarter? Oh man, such
Speaker 1: a such a good round one, um are you? So
Speaker 1: they basically took him out of the tournament, which is
Speaker 1: too bad for him. But I don't want to break
Speaker 1: in if you if you were doing this by quarter,
Speaker 1: if you were doing this in the order, but I
Speaker 1: was the the isn't er opelka curios heavy server, you know,
Speaker 1: type of player on this surface. That's that's a real
Speaker 1: benefit to be a hard, hard server because this is
Speaker 1: fast it typically is. But you got to get to
Speaker 1: the second week. Is that what I've noticed? Um, you
Speaker 1: need rhythm with your serve to for it to be
Speaker 1: as dangerous as it can be. Ultimately, UM, I don't
Speaker 1: remember any of those guys really just ripping the cover
Speaker 1: off the ball right out of the gate in week
Speaker 1: one of these tournaments. Um. It takes about a week
Speaker 1: to get your serves rhythm down. UM. And but if
Speaker 1: any of those guys get to the week two, that's
Speaker 1: a matchup you do not want any part of um in,
Speaker 1: you know, if in the fourth round, quarterfinals, semifinals, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So that, Yeah, but those Opelka, interestingly enough, market is
Speaker 1: cold on him right now. He was a dog yesterday
Speaker 1: to Brandon Koshima. I had not Kashima last I lost
Speaker 1: on that. Yeah, yeah, I mean market and you I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure exactly why the market is so cold
Speaker 1: on Opelca, because he's got way, way, way more experience
Speaker 1: at this point, at this level, um been but his
Speaker 1: last year, if I recalled late last year on hardcore,
Speaker 1: Opelca's brimming with confidence. That's a good point. Yeah, I have.
Speaker 1: I have him as our top us player heading into
Speaker 1: this particular tournament for these conditions, and if he makes
Speaker 1: it tw week two, he'll be fun watch. Um, how
Speaker 1: do you feel about Cocons, Coconakus and render Connection guys
Speaker 1: like that. I mean, I'm excited to see them back
Speaker 1: in the NEX Coconaukus especially. Um. He got the wild
Speaker 1: card here so we didn't have to qualify. That's allowed
Speaker 1: him to play. Is he in Sydney or Adelaide? I
Speaker 1: believe he's in Adelaide, but he's Uh. He had a
Speaker 1: really nice um when beat and three tiebreakers and yeah,
Speaker 1: and against Isner the three tiebreakers. Was that two nights
Speaker 1: ago backed it up with a he covered the set,
Speaker 1: he covered the game set set at the game spread,
Speaker 1: but not the set spread last night against Yeah, I
Speaker 1: backed him against Isner and I faded him to my
Speaker 1: detriment against I played both those over, so I was
Speaker 1: delighted by there was in both cases. Um, the the
Speaker 1: he may win Adelaide at that point, he's not gonna
Speaker 1: do anything. And uh at the Australian Open Olburg unfortunately.
Speaker 1: But he's a cool he's a fun player. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: all right, Well I'm I'm a I'm anti Chilge at
Speaker 1: this point in his career, so I support you. There, Um,
Speaker 1: he could he could win adelaide. Um. But there's there's
Speaker 1: really uh, there's really m there will be one or
Speaker 1: two players who you have not heard much about before,
Speaker 1: even if you are a relatively serious tennis fan, that
Speaker 1: will do something at this tournament. There always are. Um.
Speaker 1: I'll never forget the uh, the Kazakhstani kid who beat
Speaker 1: the Djokovic with the glasses, Dennis Eastman. Um, you know
Speaker 1: he took he took this tournament by storm. Um. You
Speaker 1: know came four years ago. Last I was just going
Speaker 1: there next. Okay, nice um conditions favorite karatso here for sure,
Speaker 1: he's he's a dangerous player to keep your eye on. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, we've had runs from guys like Tennis Sandgren.
Speaker 1: Uh you know um uh Chung made a run here.
Speaker 1: You know, like there will be a couple of names
Speaker 1: in week two of this who you are like, wow,
Speaker 1: holy smokes, how is this guy here? Um? But yeah,
Speaker 1: if you want to kind of go quarter by quarter
Speaker 1: real quick wrap bear Teeny's out of form. I don't
Speaker 1: like him at his current price in the time in
Speaker 1: the in the first quarter. Realistically, if Djokovic gets eliminated
Speaker 1: UM for immigration reasons, I would circle Pablo Pablo Corno
Speaker 1: Busta in the first quarter, UM second quarters veras to lose.
Speaker 1: There's no one else in that in that run outside
Speaker 1: of maybe Karatso, who I think gives him much of
Speaker 1: a match in the fourth round or the quarterfinals. Third
Speaker 1: quarter is the one where I think you want to
Speaker 1: try to take on a price. You have an out
Speaker 1: of forms SUPPOSTI supposs dealt with an injury late last season.
Speaker 1: UM has not really shown much quality so far in
Speaker 1: coming back into this calendar year. UM caspar Roud is
Speaker 1: your other top seed in the third quarter, and he
Speaker 1: is not. He has not peak form for this uh,
Speaker 1: you know setting at all. He is a clay quarter
Speaker 1: through and through, and you would only look to back
Speaker 1: him at the likes of a French Open or US Open. Uh,
Speaker 1: and even then not to win, but to get out
Speaker 1: of his quarter. UM, which leaves you with the likes
Speaker 1: of Yannick Center and Roberto Bautista Ago. I think those
Speaker 1: two players meet and one of them takes the third
Speaker 1: quarter UM, and both are available probably for a pretty
Speaker 1: decent price. I'm gonna look it up right now. Um,
Speaker 1: but if those two players met in uh in the quarterfinal,
Speaker 1: I would favor Roberto Bautista Ago and I think you
Speaker 1: can probably get him in the price point range of
Speaker 1: about eight to one to win the third quarter. So
Speaker 1: that's a fun looker. It was the other one in
Speaker 1: that court or that you said, I'm sorry, Center, the
Speaker 1: young young Italian player. Yeah, I think I think Center
Speaker 1: comes out of section five. I think Batista who comes
Speaker 1: out of section six. And I have a slight lean
Speaker 1: to to r b a In in that final. And
Speaker 1: really it's only because he's a machine like that guy
Speaker 1: is a robot. Um. He completely he absorbs the conditions
Speaker 1: without issue, he can handle the heat, he can go
Speaker 1: five setters and you're not worried about backing him the
Speaker 1: next time out. So um, that's really the only kind
Speaker 1: of fun, long shottish look that I would try to target.
Speaker 1: And then, as mentioned, the fourth quarter, absolutely Medvedev's to lose.
Speaker 1: There's there's no one else in there that matches up
Speaker 1: with his game whatsoever. And believe it or not, if
Speaker 1: this was a completely neutral tournament and there were you know,
Speaker 1: if there was uh, you know, you take the immigration
Speaker 1: stuff for Djokovic out of the picture. I have Medvedev
Speaker 1: more likely to win this tournament, even me, even if
Speaker 1: Joker plays, Yeah, even if he plays, and even if
Speaker 1: he plays, and even if it's if it's just there's
Speaker 1: no crowds. There's no you know, no booing, no disruption
Speaker 1: of it. You know, he's not getting extra testing, he's
Speaker 1: not being disrupted. No one's given him side ie in
Speaker 1: the gym, all that, they're all that out the window.
Speaker 1: This is just a neutral tournament. I have Medvedev as
Speaker 1: more likely to win. He's I have him as a
Speaker 1: higher rated player right now on hard court. The data
Speaker 1: supports it. The data supports generally speed. Side ie in
Speaker 1: the in the locker room, You've got always worried about that.
Speaker 1: I love that part. Side I and the logger room
Speaker 1: drew huge part of you. I apologize for the interruptions.
Speaker 1: I just get so excited talking about tennis that I'm
Speaker 1: just like brimming with questions to ask. So forgive me
Speaker 1: for not letting you complete some of your thoughts there. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm glad. I'm glad we got to all of it.
Speaker 1: I'm in the same way. I'm on a roll. I'm
Speaker 1: can't can't get enough of this stuff. Well, let's uh,
Speaker 1: let's have you on a numbers game during the tournament
Speaker 1: obviously as we always do. Maybe even an extra appearance too.
Speaker 1: We'll see what we do with the Australian Open. But
Speaker 1: I'm I'm very pumped uh to do this. Thank you
Speaker 1: for for doing your half here. Dan Weston will join
Speaker 1: us momentarily to give us his take on things. Thank you,
Speaker 1: sir for doing triple duty this week. Man. Hey, best
Speaker 1: luck to you and yours in uh, Happy new Year
Speaker 1: to everybody, Happy Tennis New Year, and yeah, I enjoy
Speaker 1: the first line. True Dinsy had well underscore Capper on
Speaker 1: Twitter again, Deep Dive and Bet the Edge podcast wherever
Speaker 1: podcasts are available. Skill Alexander so excited to have this
Speaker 1: gentleman back on the show. It's been too long at
Speaker 1: Tennis Ratings is where you can find him on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Still does his stuff for Betfair. It's Dan west and everybody.
Speaker 1: How you doing Dan? Oh, I'm good, Gil, how are
Speaker 1: you doing very well? Great to see you man. And
Speaker 1: of course it is Tennis's first major, and I mean
Speaker 1: where do we start? We have to start with only
Speaker 1: one place. The latest in case people missed it on
Speaker 1: Novak Djokovic is he was allowed into the country, um
Speaker 1: by Victorian law. He was there, he then had his
Speaker 1: visa taken away. It was then reinstated, uh, and now
Speaker 1: it has been taken away again and so it looks
Speaker 1: like there's an appeal that could happen or that will happen.
Speaker 1: But it looks like, at this point, a little more
Speaker 1: than forty eight hours away from the Australian Open, that
Speaker 1: Novak will not be playing. That's the current thing. And
Speaker 1: so Dan, I come to you and I say, how
Speaker 1: has that then informed your bets? Well, it's it's it's
Speaker 1: such an interesting scenario and there's still a lot of intangibles.
Speaker 1: I felt that this story has got a lot more
Speaker 1: to run if you like. Um. He was two point
Speaker 1: nine two on Betfair on Wednesday, but before before the draw.
Speaker 1: Now he has drifted out to around the three point foremark.
Speaker 1: So the market's pretty defensive on Djokovic, And in my
Speaker 1: pre draw preview for bet Fair, I wrote that I'll
Speaker 1: be pretty nervously I held a big position on him,
Speaker 1: and then that's that's certainly the case. Now my'd worth
Speaker 1: sort of clarifying with with your listeners, is that check
Speaker 1: the rules. If you're going to bet on this tournament,
Speaker 1: check the rules because on Betfair, for example, if you
Speaker 1: bet Djokovic before the tournament and he doesn't play the
Speaker 1: first round game, you get avoid you get a refund.
Speaker 1: But if on on if stay take of argument, he's
Speaker 1: legal channels, give him a kind of a stage of
Speaker 1: some degree, and he plays a round one and then
Speaker 1: he gets thrown out of the country after round one,
Speaker 1: then you lose all your money. So as soon as
Speaker 1: he hits that first ball on court, everything's live. No
Speaker 1: voids that, and that might be different from various different
Speaker 1: sports books. So if you're going to bet on Djokovic,
Speaker 1: check the odds. Now, personally, I wouldn't. I wouldn't touch
Speaker 1: Djokovic for various reasons. First of all, I thought he
Speaker 1: was very short price, regardless of any any off court issues.
Speaker 1: Have Daniel Medvedeva slightly higher numbers than Djokovic on hard
Speaker 1: court over last tour anyway, and I was quite surprised
Speaker 1: to see Djokovic's favorite with all those offered issues now
Speaker 1: and obviously we know now that this is just even
Speaker 1: worse pretorment preparation for Dokovic, so the fact that he
Speaker 1: has only very slightly biger than Medvedev in the right
Speaker 1: market is is interesting. And it's also worth noting that
Speaker 1: prior to the draw, and prior to the latest issues
Speaker 1: for Djokovic, the top three in the market had implied
Speaker 1: chance of winning the tournament. That's fallen now to seventy
Speaker 1: two because we haven't seen a lot of shortening on
Speaker 1: Medvedev wherev even with those issues Djokovic, we've seen the
Speaker 1: likes of Nadal sits a past and a couple of
Speaker 1: the guys just around the hundred to one mark or
Speaker 1: slightly shorter. They're the ones who seemed to be benefiting
Speaker 1: from the uncertainty Roundjokovic rather than the market leaders. Yes,
Speaker 1: it is super tap heavy and if Djokovic is out
Speaker 1: it could very well come down to a mano a
Speaker 1: mano versus Medvedev and Zverev. Others will have a say,
Speaker 1: but those really are the three guys with Djokovic that
Speaker 1: have a shot. Did you bet anything for those who
Speaker 1: have a quarter by quarter market on the men's side, Dan,
Speaker 1: did you recommend anything there? I'm still planning through a
Speaker 1: lot of it. Obviously, there's a lot to consider with
Speaker 1: the drawer and working out the implication of drawer. It's
Speaker 1: also worth noticing on the I think Andrei rube Lev
Speaker 1: would then go into Djokovic's slot at the top of
Speaker 1: the draw if Djokovic is unable to play. So there's
Speaker 1: all sorts of if spots are maybes at the moment,
Speaker 1: so there's not a lot of certainties. So they would
Speaker 1: they would move the five seed up to the one seed,
Speaker 1: That's what I'm reading. Yeah, interesting because there were some
Speaker 1: conflicting reports on that. At one point they were saying
Speaker 1: the lucky loser would just move in, you know, So
Speaker 1: that's interesting. So lucky loser would definitely take the place
Speaker 1: of Djokovic in the tournament, but I think in a
Speaker 1: different slot than they would shift. Yeah, it's an unprecedented situation.
Speaker 1: We just we we absolutely are are learning on the
Speaker 1: fly here. Um. And last thing about the men's side,
Speaker 1: is there a player we don't know. We're just getting
Speaker 1: the first round match lines now, and I don't want to.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've even looked at those matches
Speaker 1: because they just really have been posted here recently. Do
Speaker 1: you have any first round match plays or if you don't.
Speaker 1: Broadly speaking, is there a name or names bubbling under
Speaker 1: that you, if not win the tournament or win their quarter,
Speaker 1: could see making some noise in this tournament that people
Speaker 1: should be aware of. Yeah, I think the few of
Speaker 1: the guys with strong serves around the top ten, top
Speaker 1: fifteen in the market and in the rankings are quite
Speaker 1: capable of making decent runs, particularly when we think the
Speaker 1: conditions are going to be fairly quick for our hard
Speaker 1: core the likes of Hubert hook Acts and Matteo Barrettenia too,
Speaker 1: with very strong served numbers and even quick conditions, they're
Speaker 1: not going to be that easy to break. So there
Speaker 1: may be there are a couple of players to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on and the next tier of players if
Speaker 1: you like. But but there's not as as we always
Speaker 1: staying with them. It's it's not a lot that really
Speaker 1: stands out with the market is so top heavy to
Speaker 1: start with. And what about the women, said you and
Speaker 1: you and I have done these for years and we've
Speaker 1: always said, well, you know, men's very top heavy, the
Speaker 1: women's anybody can win it. Anybody probably can women on
Speaker 1: the on the ladyes side. But Ash Bartie has really
Speaker 1: distinguished herself of late. So do you look at that
Speaker 1: side and say it really is her tournament to lose
Speaker 1: at this point. Yeah, So I have her for a
Speaker 1: reasonable distance ahead of the field on number my numbers.
Speaker 1: So the fact that she's at the top of the
Speaker 1: market and fairly clear of Naamasaka's second favorite is it
Speaker 1: seems pretty reasonable. Now obviously we know that that they're
Speaker 1: now scheduled to face each other in around four, which
Speaker 1: is an incredible clash early in the tournament. So it's
Speaker 1: it's probably unsurprising that a Sarka's drifted about three points
Speaker 1: on back from seven to not farve tens now based
Speaker 1: on that draw. So the markets markets looking to fade
Speaker 1: Asaka she's friendness in the market after that draw, and
Speaker 1: she's also got Amanda and it's not over and round three,
Speaker 1: who was one of the players his keends keep an
Speaker 1: eye on for for the drawer as well. So so
Speaker 1: it's a pretty tricky uh round three, round four subsequently
Speaker 1: for for Osaka in the next tournament. And it's it's
Speaker 1: not surprising that she's drifted at all. If I said
Speaker 1: to you Dan and we're talking to Dan West and
Speaker 1: at Tennis ratings on Twitter, global analytics expert on the
Speaker 1: sport of tennis and other sports. You betting cricket these days?
Speaker 1: To Dan, is that what you're doing. I'm not allowed
Speaker 1: to put on cricket, not less not allowed to bet
Speaker 1: on cricket. Uh if I said to you, okay, you
Speaker 1: must make one bet in the futures market on the
Speaker 1: ladies side. But it's not ash party, it's somebody else
Speaker 1: that's double digits here by American betting parlance. Who would
Speaker 1: it be? It would be your friend and mine? Yes,
Speaker 1: six sixteen's um so mine my name was right. Her
Speaker 1: is the third best hardcoreter on tour right now, and
Speaker 1: obviously we know that that she's young, she's got a
Speaker 1: lot of future upside as well. Young players tend to
Speaker 1: start the season often pretty well. We've already seen a
Speaker 1: few surprise finalists on the men's tour in these warm
Speaker 1: up events, so I'm very comfortable with swar tex price
Speaker 1: and and the fact that she's got a pretty straightforward opener.
Speaker 1: Harriet Dart from from England in round one, Cassa Kina
Speaker 1: might be a bit of a testing Round three, but
Speaker 1: you've gotta be beating the lights of Cassa Kina around
Speaker 1: through to to win a slam, I'll to get to
Speaker 1: the business end at least, and I feel that she
Speaker 1: looks a very clear favorite to me in that in
Speaker 1: that fourth bracket against the likes of Sabolenka, Cerber and
Speaker 1: Lata Fernandez as well. So I don't see a lot
Speaker 1: of trouble her, to be honest with you, Yeah, she
Speaker 1: and she got the opposite side of the bracket that
Speaker 1: they already did, right so they could meet in the
Speaker 1: final if it came to that. I'm with you too.
Speaker 1: I know people when I first said it last week
Speaker 1: that Eagle's probably the one long shot Bett and I
Speaker 1: did put it in my pocket last week before the draw.
Speaker 1: Even she is, she's got the numbers, she has the ability.
Speaker 1: Now can she get over the Bartie hump when facing
Speaker 1: her head to head? You know who knows in the end,
Speaker 1: But in terms of the value, I would agree with
Speaker 1: that wholeheartedly. That he gets Fiatech at sixteen to one.
Speaker 1: We're showing at bet MGM would be the long shot
Speaker 1: play on the ladyside. I took Zverev at plus six
Speaker 1: fifty dan in December, anticipating that Djokovic would would be
Speaker 1: out so this, this next forty eight hours is actually
Speaker 1: as big a deal to me as the matches themselves. Man, yeah,
Speaker 1: I know you've got the value of regardless, right, regardless,
Speaker 1: I got the value. Um, you don't have any play
Speaker 1: any plays in the finals here before the Australian opening
Speaker 1: at later Sydney, before we go, No, no, no, just
Speaker 1: they're just gonna keep an eye on everything over overnight
Speaker 1: here UK before some interesting interesting matches with Quatric over
Speaker 1: and Podoza to. It could be easy to do all
Speaker 1: of these tis as well. Yes, sat in the final.
Speaker 1: I agree some marginal value in christ Koby. I think Dan,
Speaker 1: we gotta run great to see you man, pat skill
Speaker 1: type test basiting YouTube Dan West did everybody at Tennis
Speaker 1: ratings