WEBVTT - Trump Says Canada, Mexico, Tariffs to Take Effect, Adds New China Duty 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.479 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.480 us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.720 The tariff news, it just keeps on coming here. Trump 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:32.400 says Mexico, Canada, and new China tariffs take effect March fourth. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.240 That's coming up soon. Let's get the latest. Brendan Mary, 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:39.320 global trade editor for Bloomberg News, joins us. Right now. Brendan, 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.879 you know, it's tough to keep track here, but it 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.879 appears that these tariffs are going to take place and 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:47.480 maybe use some incremental ones on China. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:48.080 What's the latest. 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.319 Yeah, So Trump tried to clear up any confusion there 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:57.920 was about whether the Canada and Mexico tariffs of twenty 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:01.200 five percent we're going to take place on Tuesday, and 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:03.680 he said they indeed will. 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.039 And he added a bit of a surprise. 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.399 He said, oh, and I'm also going to add ten 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:13.080 percent tariffs to Chinese imports, which he's already He already 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.640 imposed ten percent tariffs on China. So this is another 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.720 ten percent and that will also take effect on Tuesday. 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:24.000 So we're looking at the three largest US trading partners. 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.800 About forty percent of US merchandise trade is done with 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:32.680 these three countries totally, something like two trillion dollars a year. 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.319 So he's turning the. 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:39.880 Screws on China in particular and trying to drive a deal. 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:45.320 It sounds like before before midnight Monday into Tuesday with Canada. 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.240 Mexico, what's the off ramp. 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:52.880 Then the off ramp is Canada and Mexico scrambling to 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:55.600 show him that he's doing that. They're doing what he 0:01:55.640 --> 0:02:00.280 would like them to do on fentanyl trafficking and uh, 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.919 in illegal migration. Uh, they have already done a number 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:07.840 of things. So the question is, you know what exactly 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.120 are the goal the goal the goals uh that they 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:13.960 could they could reach uh and as you know, and 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.880 are those even attainable you know, in the next you know, 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:17.799 four days now? 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.200 So all right, Brendan dumb question of the day. How 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:22.960 do tariffs work? 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:23.400 Like? 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:29.400 Who puts the tariff on which party? How quickly does 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:32.440 it happen? Can you just explain the mechanics here? 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:36.040 Yeah, it's it's a it's a pretty quick UH switch 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.960 that you know, the directive comes from the President, it 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.720 goes into the Federal Register, UH, it is transmitted to 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.920 the Customs and Border UH agency, and they, you know, 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.440 they plug it into their computer system and and and 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:55.200 and that that system that that importers and exporters are 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:59.880 are connected to UH customs agents and and you know 0:02:59.880 --> 0:03:05.080 the intermediaries of trade. That suddenly appears on there, you know, 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:07.799 on their on their computer screen is it's another ten 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:11.640 percent in the case of China, come come Tuesday. So 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:16.040 it's it all can happen pretty quickly. You know, at 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.320 the moment, these are just threats. The only tariffs that 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:23.280 are in effect since Trump was inaugurated on January twentieth, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.120 our ten percent on China. But there are a half 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:30.160 dozen or so others, including tariffs on the European Union, 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:32.799 that that he's threatened. 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:36.440 To put in place over the next five five or 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:37.440 six weeks. 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:42.480 So now what like if I'm an economist and I'm 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:44.440 looking at my models, like what am I plugging in 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:46.280 now to know like what growth is going to be, 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.120 what inflation is going to be, what personal consumption is 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:49.600 going to be? 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:55.000 Yeah, you know, Bloomberg Economics have have have done a 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.960 lot of number crunching in this area and and they 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:01.560 do show that these the tariffs will have an impact 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:03.320 on on on. 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:04.720 Growth, on inflation. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:05.560 Uh. 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.440 The the the freshest number we have was that that 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.280 the the tariffs on the European Union that he's threatening 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:15.680 will will cut their GDP by one point five percent. Now, 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.200 one point five percent sounds like a small number, but 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:21.160 we're talking, you know, to an economy and the multiple 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:24.520 trillions of dollars, so it's a it's a lot of money. Uh, 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:27.719 businesses pay it and then businesses passed those costs on 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.360 to consumers. So uh, it will it will. H The 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.800 goal from the Trump administration is to is to drive 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.280 production to the US. But in the meantime, somebody's got 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:40.200 to pay. Somebody's got to pay these tariffs. And uh 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.200 and until those jobs are created as Trump hopes they are, uh, 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.160 it's it will have an upward There will be upward 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:50.080 pressure on prices, uh, for the for the products that 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:50.800 he is targeting. 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:54.760 Brandon, what do we know about from these countries China, Canada, 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.320 Mexico in terms of retaliation and what is their policy 0:04:58.520 --> 0:04:59.640 or what are they saying these days? 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.960 They're all doing something slightly different. 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:05.479 Canada has said will hit you will hit one hundred 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:09.599 and seven billion dollars worth of your products with with 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.000 the same tariff that you're you're going to put on 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:15.280 on twenty five percent. Mexico has has not been that specific, 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:19.359 but they will. They will also they pledge that they will. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:19.960 They won't. 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:21.880 They won't just take it that they that they will 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:25.440 retaliate as well. China is a more interesting case. They 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.839 have been very reserved in what they have targeted, but 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:31.880 they've been sort of strategic. They they they launched an 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:37.559 antitrust investigation into Google's operations in China. The total amount 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:39.960 of tariffs that they have goods that they're that they've 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:44.120 retaliated against is only fourteen billion or so so that 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:47.200 they have. But but what they're what they're showing the 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:50.400 US is we can we can target not just your 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:54.000 goods but also your your big tech companies. So they're 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:58.880 you know, they're playing they're they're they're seeing Donald Trump's uh, 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:02.039 you know, the pressure putting on there and they're responding 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:05.400 in a way. So far that's been reserved, but that 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.280 can hit hard, you know, biking that company like goop. 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:10.599 All right, Brendan, we really appreciate it. Thank you so 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:14.640 very much. Brendan Murray, Bloomer Global Trade Editor, joining us 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:18.719 on Trump tariffs coming into effect next week on Canada, Mexico, 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.680 additional ten percent on China as well. 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:27.039 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.200 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay, and Android 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.520 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:36.880 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.039 Let's get right to the Nvidia news, and nobody better 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.600 to do that with than Gene Monster, managing partner co 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.680 founder at Loop Ventures. Gene Suck's kind of been up 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.000 and down today, it's investors trying to get a handle 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:52.040 on it. What's your takeaway from the Nvidia news yesterday? 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.160 Well, the results were good but not great. And specifically 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.919 is the margin guidance at seventy one percent versus the 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.760 three to seventy two and there weren't whispers that they 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.480 were going to lower margins. I think that really stood 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.720 out to me. The upside on revenue of a million 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:13.400 a billion compares to the expectations of like a billion 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:15.680 and a half to two billion, and so I think 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:17.960 that these were good in the sense they did raise 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.760 on revenue, but not great. This definitely wasn't an Nvidia 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.720 like quarter. And I would say that if you put 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:26.720 everything in the context and my senses, the stock probably 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:29.560 trades lower today. I think that it probably should be 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.960 down something like five percent ultimately, because effectively what they're 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:38.320 doing is pushing the ramp to the back half of 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.600 the year, especially on margins. That's when the margins they 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:43.440 said to kind of go to seventy five percent. And 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.160 I would add one other piece to this is going 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:49.520 into the print. I believe that the most important point 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.320 was related to commentary about how sold out they were 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.640 on Blackwell. This is a metric that they typically give, 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:58.000 and last quarter they said they were sold out for 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.760 basically three quarters of this year. They were radio silent 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.480 on the topic. They surprisingly didn't get asked a question 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:08.800 on it. But I think that Jensen's comments about the 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:12.760 need for compute being one hundred to one million I 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:15.640 double checked that on the transcript, one hundred to one 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:19.960 million times more compute needed for reasoning and physical AI 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:24.600 and robotics AI that increase in compute. I think gave 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.000 investors some optimism that well, this year might not be 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:31.040 the year that twenty twenty six is going to grow 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.000 faster than what people think, and so set a different 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:37.640 way is that the results and guidance don't give a 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:41.000 ton of optimism. But if you look at where this 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.640 ultimately could go, if you take what Jensen is saying 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:47.360 and divided by ten, that means they're still going to 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.080 comfortably beat the numbers next year. 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:52.160 Okay, there's a lot of unpack with that. So let's 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:54.720 go back to gross margins for a second. Based on 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:57.640 their call that gross margins will hit seventy five percent 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:59.600 in the back half of the year, when do we 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.120 think they're to bottom? 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.280 So they got answered the guess that question on the 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:07.280 call and they kind of sidestep it. But if you 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:10.720 read between the lines, they probably go lower again in 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.079 the July quarter. So there's an April quarter that we're 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:14.559 in right now than they go to the July quarter. 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:18.079 My guess is they probably bottom then at around seventy percent, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:23.400 So effectively, going from seventy to seventy five over six months, 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.160 it's a pretty big jump. At the time of the call, 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:28.040 the stock was up two and a half percent and 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:32.199 excuse me, about two percent in after hours when they 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.080 came to the last question on the call, which was 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.440 related to that ramp in margins and how realistic is 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:42.280 that if we have more export controls and the answer was, 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:44.800 we don't know how export controls are going to impact 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.240 our business. And immediately the stock went from up call 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:49.880 it two percent to down a half a percent, So 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.320 we saw basically two percent move in it. And so 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:56.440 I think that speaks to investors saying like, that's that's 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.600 a risk here, is like, are we really going to 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.120 get to that margin ramp in your setup here? You 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:03.840 talked about the seventy three percent margins for a tech 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.200 company for a hardware company. I think at the end 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.120 of the day, they're still remarkable. But for these stocks 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.679 to keep working, you need to have margins at a 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.360 minimum stable and growing. And I just want to put 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.040 one final thought on this, Alex is that ultimately I 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:19.280 think margins will get back to that seventy five percent. 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:20.280 I don't know if it's going to be in Q 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.040 four early next year, but if the ramp is what 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:25.559 I think it's going to be for next year, I 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:27.560 think we're going to get back to some go go days. 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:32.959 Nvidia Gene, the driver for this stock tremendous performance over 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.640 the past two years, has been beaten and raised by 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:39.080 a certain order of magnitude. If for no other reason 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:41.920 than the law of large numbers, that order of magnitude 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:45.600 likely will be lower. Can this stock continue to work 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:47.920 with just the law of large numbers not giving you 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.960 that two three four billion dollar bet and raise every quarter. 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.360 I think it can. And just to put in perspective, 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:57.360 we've gone from a twenty billion dollar business a few 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:58.960 years ago. It's going to be about a two hundred 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.760 billion dollar business this year. But there's still our companies 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:03.520 apples a four hundred million dollar business. I mean, you 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.680 can still continue to grow from that, and it doesn't 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:09.959 need to have that breathtaking growth. And I would come 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.400 back to the central question here. It's not about twenty 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.760 twenty five. It's the twenty three percent growth in calendar 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.360 twenty six, And do you think that the number is 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.360 going to be higher or lower than that? And ultimately 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:22.599 I think the number is going to be higher. I 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:24.400 think we're going to get back to a point where we, 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:27.520 despite the law of large numbers, we get to some 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:31.439 of those improving, those improving upsize and beats, and it 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.400 just comes down to what I think is a large 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.040 TAM and what I still believe is a competitive advantage 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:40.640 that GPUs have over custom silicon. And we'll see how 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.920 that plays out. But that's essentially the debate that's going 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.760 on right now is just how much compute you need 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.480 and how defensible is in video. I think there's a 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:51.960 boatload of compute, much more than we realize it's going 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:53.439 to be needed. And I think in videa's in a 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:55.560 great position related to that. We're gonna have to wait 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.760 to get to those results, but I think anticipation of 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:01.400 that it's going to be positive for the stock at 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:01.920 some point this. 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.679 Year, gotcha. So it's basically like the story is still intact. 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.920 This is now just a timing issue and a little 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.760 bit of a macro issue when it comes to tarups 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:10.480 Am I reading you right? 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:13.200 Yeah, that's going to be the debate. That's the bowl 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:15.360 caase that's the side that I'm on. I still think 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.599 we're early in AI and I think in video is 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:21.840 going to benefit. The bearcase is that we're seeing law 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.599 of large numbers less beats, and you're going to have 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.120 a compress multiple in that situation. But the central question 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:30.319 again comes down bears their bulls. Do you think they're 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:31.480 going to beat the numbers next year? 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:32.240 Yeah? 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.079 That's been the tech call for you know, such a 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:37.079 long time, for a lot of different names, and Gene 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.840 has been there doing this stuff for a long time 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.320 and he's got the perspective. So we really appreciate getting 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.599 a few minutes at Gene Monster's time, folks. Again, he 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:46.560 was there for you know, the birth of the Internet 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:50.120 literally and calling it from an investment perspective, helping people 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.320 understand what this whole internet thing is, and he's doing 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:55.600 the same thing here for us and for a lot 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.360 of his clients as it relates to AI. 0:12:57.440 --> 0:12:58.520 We appreciate that. 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:02.040 Genemunster, managing partner co founder at Loop Ventures out there 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:06.520 in that tech hub of Minneapolis. Oh Yeshoda, here you. 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:07.120 Go, There you go. 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:12.360 Fold time you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.520 us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:18.480 and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.800 demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:22.520 on YouTube. 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:24.959 So then let's get to the markets and kind of 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.720 what do you do when we have a continued tariff threat. 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:29.720 It feels like we are counting down by days until 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:31.679 we get that twenty five percent tariff on goods from 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.960 Canada and Mexico in additional ten percent and Chinese goods 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.679 markets mixed Nastak still off by four tens to one percent. 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:39.480 We cannot seem to keep the rebound that we see 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:41.960 in the future's market. Well. Joining us now for more 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.480 on how to handle it is Frank Makram. He is 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.800 head of Macro Trading over at Buffalo by You. He 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:48.920 joins us on the markets. Frank, you've been in this 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.160 market for a long time. How do you protect yourself 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:52.600 right now? 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.599 Listen, it's it's it's an exercise that requires kind of 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.199 short term protection that long term action here in the 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.240 short term obviously, if you're worried about you know, the 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:08.360 vicissitudes of having headlines after headlines around, you know, the 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.960 policy agenda coming from the administration, then I think you've 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.480 got to You've got several instruments that you can use, 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:15.720 whether it's in an equities market, you've got to got 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.000 short term options. Even though the this is kind of 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:22.440 up up to eighteen nineteen close to twenty is still 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:26.560 relatively you know, fairly priced in my opinion, based on 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.080 the level of uncertainty that we've still seen in the marketplace. 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.120 But if you if you're you know, willing to kind 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:33.920 of ride it out, I think we're probably going to 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:37.480 be in the choppy range here for a while. And 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:43.080 if you're medium to long term view as that, you know, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.680 we we we're looking to probably see a bit of 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.080 a correction here in the markets, and I think, you know, 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.000 downside protection looks really really cheap in my opinion. You know, 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:54.520 we're we're in a situation where it's really hard for 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.360 equities to really get to escape velocity to the upside 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:00.800 given all the uncertainty. Given word about euations are I'm 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:02.280 not saying, you know, you want to be bearished, but 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.640 it's just the key word is of vulnerability. Market is 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.360 super vulnerable when you're when you're trading out these kinds 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.080 of evaluations and you've got this uncertainty and you've got 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.080 you know, the deep seek thing is nothing to scuff 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:15.880 scuff at. I think you know, we see the video 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.200 earnings yesterday that are failing to kind of lift the 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.520 market up. That says a lot about the momentum. 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:22.360 But on the flip side, I would have said I 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.680 kind of went into yesterday frank saying I thought the 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.840 risk of the market within video was everybody's been asking 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.640 for or saying, why don't we get a real correction, 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.920 you know, seven, eight, ten, twelve percent correction, And if 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:37.120 a video really disappointed last night, maybe that would have 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.640 been a capaist. Their numbers were kind of good enough 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:41.600 just to kind of keep everybody kind of happy. 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.640 I guess no, for sure, I think the numbers were 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.000 I think, all things considered, kind of middle of the road, 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.040 and you know, it allows us to remain kind of 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.840 steady here. But this vulnerability, to me isn't gone right. 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.880 I mean, we've seeing some more terrorists headlines today. There's 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.600 a sense that the market is seeing a bit of 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.160 sort of terrorists fatigue here a little bit, yeah, little. 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.360 You definitely seen that being reflected in the bond market, 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.520 where you know, initially you saw bonds, you know, so 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.560 selling off pretty aggressively with tens, you know, testing again 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.280 three sixty three seven year almost. 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.520 But now we're back to three twenty five, three thirty. 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.000 Level, and you know it just kind of goes to 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.400 show that the you know, the convexity for bonds remains 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.760 kind of to the downside and on yields given I 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.120 think one the fact that you know, I think growth 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.960 is you know, growless what we say, you know, terras. 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.680 There's an inflation risk there, but it's inflation expectations more 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:31.640 so than anything else. But growth is a is a 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.240 presently observable data you can see, right, and the economic 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.440 indicators have been kind of rolling over economy surprises are 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.760 coming off, and you have also had an administration that's 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:45.240 been adamant in terms of trying to bring yields down. 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.400 So whenever you're seeing you know, kind of growth data 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:50.760 looking like it's softening a little bit, I think yields 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:54.200 are are going to come off pretty substantially. And I 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.960 think one of the things also that I've I've looked 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:58.760 at over the last you know, a couple of weeks 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.240 here is how gold as kind of been looks like 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:06.320 it's you know, pausing a little bit, and what's happening 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:08.640 there because I think a lot of the safe haven 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.639 flows have been going into gold because obviously, you know, 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.680 treasuries have been kind of not very desirable at this 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:16.960 morning time. But now that treasury has seen a bit again, 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:19.120 you know, gold is kind of you know, being kind 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.240 of left often not more necessarily, but you know you're 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.000 seeing some some profit taking happening with obviously crypto also 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.640 coming off, So that's also something I'm keeping an eye 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:31.120 on as as it pertains to the relationship between gold 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:31.840 and treasuries. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.040 What about oil? So used to work at gun Bore, 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.280 which is an oil training firm. This is a few 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.000 years ago. Yeah, but when you look at where we 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:42.119 are in oil right now, what are the good trades? Like, 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:43.840 what range are we in? What are you looking at? 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:45.840 Listen for it? Right? 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:47.520 I mean if you think about you know, since the 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:49.520 beginning of year, what's what's been the biggest theme for 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:53.320 to me, it's been everybody's focused on on policy agenda 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:56.080 and all the terriff rhetoric. That's that's that's fine. But 0:17:56.240 --> 0:17:59.719 to me, what's been on wavering from Washington, it's been 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:02.560 that they're pretty adamant on making sure that energy prices 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.879 stay in check. You know, they ran on you know, 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.240 fighting inflation. I don't think they're going to let that happen. 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:13.000 So, you know, I feel like you know, there is a. 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:17.800 Sort of call option from this administration on oil spiking, 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.760 especially with Saudi's having so much spare capacity, and frankly speaking, 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:24.080 I feel like at least based on the rhetoric, they've 0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:28.080 been pretty de escalatory from a geopolitical standpoint. So it's 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:31.520 it's hard really so that the right tail to oil 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.040 prices now to me is a lot betterer. Yeah, right, 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.480 but trading in from the downside and Trump be sure, 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:38.159 there's why we. 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:41.119 Got the Venezuela headlines yesterday. Like oil didn't didn't do. 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:43.600 Any epecially didn't go anything. I think right now, we've 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.159 seen a bit of a bounce today. Last time I 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:46.960 checked this morning, we're up like a dollar or something 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.840 or twenty out thirty. Yeah, that's just coming off of 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.840 kind of over soul levels and the market is really 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:55.879 really light in the positioning standpoint if you look at 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:59.640 the open interest in the future's market, especially on WTI 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.399 back to you know, like you know, eighteen months low here, 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.440 and that's just kind of leaving the market vulnerable to 0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:09.320 maybe a little bit of a short squeeze. But that 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:14.720 is not really a sustainable rally, right, And what's what's 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:18.080 really driving the old market these days is that you 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.520 have very little positioning from you know, sort of manage money, 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.280 so you have a lot of fast money type CTAs 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.200 players that are in the market are whipping the market 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:31.040 around and it just makes it vulnerable to test technical 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.520 levels a lot faster than we think because the the 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.280 sort of thematic participation into the way market really hasn't 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:39.680 been there. I mean, we've seen a lot of themes 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:41.399 with gold, we've seen a lot of themes even with 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.920 copper and the AI story, but by really hasn't had 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:47.360 that strong of a theme. If anything, it's like, well, 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.440 how low does you know the Trump administration one wants 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.440 to see oil prices going, and what's the level that's 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:56.840