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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We've made it to October, folks. Today is our Tuesday

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Speaker 1: Week five episode. We're going to break down the entire

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Speaker 1: slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exec decision and

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Speaker 1: our as Simon says, we'll start to narrow down the

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Speaker 1: options for five faves to put in the Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick contest. We went

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Speaker 1: four and one this past week, which means we did

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Speaker 1: not get any emails from any listeners who were worried.

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Speaker 1: I was basically on suicide watch after going one and

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Speaker 1: four the week before. We are happy, We're proud one

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Speaker 1: of us. One of us felt so relaxed after the

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Speaker 1: podcast on Sunday night. He might have said to his wife, Hey,

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Speaker 1: let's watch that new Kristen Bell sitcom on Netflix instead

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Speaker 1: of watching Sunday night football.

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Speaker 2: Jeez.

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Speaker 1: And for the other one, he just went back to

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Speaker 1: doing his job. I am live from our Tommy John

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Speaker 1: Holmes Studios and I'm joined as always buy my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion Mike Compadre might BFF professional better sim In

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Speaker 1: Hunter Hello, so I.

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Speaker 3: Am in Hello, Chad off the top, we would be

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Speaker 3: messing up. We didn't talk about rested peace to our

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Speaker 3: legend Pete Rose, everyone knows passed away. This is a

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Speaker 3: gambling show. I know, we don't want to talk about

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Speaker 3: a lot of the real world stuff, but me and

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Speaker 3: Chatta both are namored with Pete Rose. We had a

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Speaker 3: writer on in the off season with a book written

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Speaker 3: about him, and yeah, I just wanted to bring it up,

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Speaker 3: get to say a little love and just you know

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Speaker 3: it's me and you think we both agree he probably

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Speaker 3: just because of the legalization of sports betting, should have

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Speaker 3: got into the Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 2: So a little bittersweet day.

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Speaker 3: Now they're here in October and playoff baseball this year

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Speaker 3: and the Philadelphia legend, Read's legend, Pete Rose has passed on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, look, it's it's so interesting, right. We did have

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Speaker 1: a writer on during the spring talking about talking about

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Speaker 1: the book, Keith O'Brien who's written a bunch for the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: and I thought the book was really good, and I

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Speaker 1: thought he was a great guest, and he had great

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Speaker 1: stuff in there. And one of the stories he told

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Speaker 1: was about how this was so well known what Pete

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Speaker 1: Rose was doing that they referred to the guys he

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Speaker 1: was hanging out with in the locker room Sparky Anderson,

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Speaker 1: the Reds manager at the time. They would joke about

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Speaker 1: the gamblers that were hanging out with Pete Rose in

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Speaker 1: the locker room, as if it was nothing right. And

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, and this was great context

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Speaker 1: for today because Keith came on and his book came

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Speaker 1: out right when the Otani interpreter scandal happened, and.

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Speaker 3: And Thenani goes up and puts out the greatest baseball

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Speaker 3: season we've ever seen.

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Speaker 2: So thanks didn't.

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Speaker 1: Right, But in that moment, like the contrast between it

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Speaker 1: was totally illegal, but everybody who Pete Rose hung out with,

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Speaker 1: who were his runners, basically the people he gambled with

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Speaker 1: all hung out in the locker room and everybody knew,

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Speaker 1: and now it's totally illegal. And the contrast of Otani

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Speaker 1: being connected to this guy and this being a scandal

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Speaker 1: that could potentially bring down baseball right now when it

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Speaker 1: happened was fascinating. Yeah, and Pete Rose was sort of

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Speaker 1: the first Domino in all of these conversations. Complicated guy, uh,

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Speaker 1: not just the gambling scandals, but scandals, personal scandals, domesstic scandals.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Then again, one of the greatest baseball players who ever played.

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Speaker 1: And that's why it's so hard when you're a fan

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Speaker 1: to separate the people from the performance. It really is.

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Speaker 2: And now, oh, as always, athletes are not role.

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Speaker 1: Models, not role models, not at all so true. I'm

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Speaker 1: rip Pete Rose. Listen. In a moment, We're going to

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Speaker 1: recap the results of week five in our contest, announce

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Speaker 1: the winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If

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Speaker 1: you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the

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Speaker 1: free Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by Bet three sixty five. Visit

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Speaker 1: Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder, the Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now

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Speaker 1: new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up

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Speaker 1: using promo code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place a

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Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in

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Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

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Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never

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Speaker 1: ordinary at bet three six five must be twenty one

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Speaker 1: or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, eighteen and older.

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Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioning restrictions apply

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Speaker 1: all right, easier week In the contest, six percent of

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Speaker 1: participants win five and oh congrats to Week four first

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Speaker 1: place winner Angelou's Bird. Angelou went five to zero in

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Speaker 1: the contest and missed the tie breaker by twenty five yards.

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Speaker 1: As always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's

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Speaker 1: Cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last

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Speaker 1: in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you heard.

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Speaker 3: About the lordsome lose? He's a Louisa, but he still

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Speaker 3: keeps on tide.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Ka Simoto, who went

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Speaker 1: on five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty six yards. Ka please email Matt at podcasts at

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Speaker 1: actionetwork dot com to claim your prize. All right, last

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Speaker 1: bit of housekeeping here, I do want to share a

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Speaker 1: quick story. Matt Mitchell told us about this yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: In week three of our contest, ad listener and naval

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Speaker 1: veteran Jacob Kve went five to zero and almost nailed

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Speaker 1: the tiebreaker, but he did not finish first because of

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Speaker 1: our new additional tiebreaker, which is time of submission of Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: he got an auto email telling him he had one,

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Speaker 1: and our contest team had to explain that it was

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Speaker 1: an error. Instead of screaming himself hoarse at us, this

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Speaker 1: wonderful listener simply asked that you make a donation. Listen

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Speaker 1: up donation to the Denver Animal Shelter. Encourage any pet

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Speaker 1: loving listeners to do the same if you're feeling generous,

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Speaker 1: If you want to honor Jacob's very thoughtful, selfless request,

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Speaker 1: we've added a Denver Animal Shelter link in this episode's description.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, Thank you for your service, Thank you

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Speaker 1: for being so thoughtful, Jacob Kfey, Jacob Cavy. Moving on

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Speaker 1: to the NFL Week five. Okay, ready, Simon hard game

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Speaker 1: to start the week Tampa Bay at Atlanta. Lanta's a

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Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite. It's a fascinating game.

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Speaker 1: I can say five weeks into the season, was anyone

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Speaker 1: thinking these two teams would be among the class of

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Speaker 1: the NFC And yet Simon, here we are.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's a game you were on Sunday night

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Speaker 3: you said you like tamp I think they're plus two

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Speaker 3: and a half. So I was a little wary of it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, of course, everyone likes Tampa. They just

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Speaker 3: looked amazing. This is kind of where I want to

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Speaker 3: sell them in a short week after that big win.

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Speaker 2: But I have no real filth for this game.

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Speaker 3: I'll probably end up taking Atlanta just because of their

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Speaker 3: home team on Thursday night, and it's only they're only

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Speaker 3: a one and a half point favorite. But there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of trends that point to the Bucks. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of things alike about this Bucks team compared to

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Speaker 3: to Atlanta team. So I totally get where you're coming from.

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Speaker 3: What a lot of people are thinking here. And you know,

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Speaker 3: looking at the Action app, a lot of the money

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Speaker 3: and the tickets have come in on the Bucks. It's

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Speaker 3: moved down a point, makes sense right, they look like

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Speaker 3: the better team right now.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a game We're happy we don't

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Speaker 2: have to pick or really put in our contest.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's actually interesting, Like I'd honestly want to fade

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Speaker 1: both of these teams. Mentioned it seriously, like the Bucks

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Speaker 1: have been a pretty predictable team to bet. I think

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Speaker 1: up until this week. You know, we nail them as

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Speaker 1: a fade against the Broncos, classic spot, and then we

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Speaker 1: got him right against the Eagles. Well, you got him right,

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Speaker 1: I followed along. Meanwhile, Atlanta, they're just grinding out games,

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Speaker 1: I know, and so like it's hard to discount the

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Speaker 1: fact that they are playing to their strengths. They are

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Speaker 1: playing well defensively. Raheem Morris is a really good coach.

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Speaker 1: They barely lost that game to the Chiefs. They ground

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Speaker 1: out another win last week with the last second field goal. Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to play either of these teams, neither

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Speaker 1: of the trends that you just mentioned. You want to

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Speaker 1: play the home teams on Thursday nights. You want to

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Speaker 1: play against the division dogs when they are You want

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Speaker 1: to play against division dogs, especially short dogs, you know,

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Speaker 1: like forty five against the spread home division faves. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, man, Yeah, it's tough, the tough one. I

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Speaker 1: think it's it's a total like watch and enjoy and

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Speaker 1: maybe put together a ten dollars you know, SGP from

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Speaker 1: whatever we've got running on the Action Network. See what

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen has to say. But I don't, I don't

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Speaker 1: really have an opinion on this game. I don't. I

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Speaker 1: can't force it. The New York Jets, Minnesota, it's the

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Speaker 1: London game. Minnesota is a two and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: And look, this one got hit really fast. We didn't

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Speaker 1: even talk about this on Sunday night. The game opened

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Speaker 1: late Sunday afternoon and the Vikings were like a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite, and within less than an hour the Vikings

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Speaker 1: were all of a sudden at two and a half.

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Speaker 1: And so what is that telling you right now.

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Speaker 3: That this game is over in Europe? That's really what

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Speaker 3: this line's telling me you. Historically, if you just are

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Speaker 3: trending better, you're always better the favorites when it's over

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Speaker 3: in England. It's just historically that's the team that usually

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Speaker 3: covers and wins. To me, this is a game I

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Speaker 3: wanted to be all over the Jets, and I was

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Speaker 3: pissed when I found out this was in England, because

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Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, if this was in Minnesota, you know,

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Speaker 3: this line probably would have been four and a half

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Speaker 3: five the Valley would have been on the Jets. And

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Speaker 3: this is a good matchup for Aaron Rodgers. Like this,

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Speaker 3: this defense that floors is running. It's really good against young,

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Speaker 3: inexperienced quarterbacks. I really haven't seen a lot of extic,

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Speaker 3: you know, type of defenses.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers has seen it at all. He'd be able

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Speaker 2: to figure it out and pick it apart.

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Speaker 3: And you know, now I want to join the general

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Speaker 3: public and just take the Vikings because this is an

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Speaker 3: international game. I usually just blindly bet the favorites here,

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Speaker 3: but I'll wait. If this gets the three, I'll throw

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Speaker 3: a lit on the Jets. But same kind of thing.

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Speaker 3: It's just a game. I'm not gonna really be betting

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Speaker 3: heavy because I just hate betting these international games. And

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Speaker 3: there's any type of rain, there's no way I'm betting

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Speaker 3: on the Jets. They looked so horrible in that rain

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Speaker 3: last week. It just that's more reasons to bet this

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Speaker 3: Vikings team. They just look like the more comfortable and

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Speaker 3: more complete team.

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Speaker 2: Right now.

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Speaker 3: But this is usually the type of game we like

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Speaker 3: to go the other way on, especially against a team

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Speaker 3: that's four and oh against the spread and four and

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Speaker 3: oh against the season.

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Speaker 2: But I have to wait another week. CHAT don't know

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Speaker 2: if we're going to mess with this international one now.

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Speaker 1: Look, the favorites are thirty four and ten straight up

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Speaker 1: and thirty ten against the spread.

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Speaker 2: I know, right, that's crazy.

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Speaker 1: There is a bigger question here, and like you're right

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Speaker 1: about Brian Flores and what he has been able to

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Speaker 1: do this Jets team. I feel like when you have

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Speaker 1: to manage people as a boss, you have to be

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Speaker 1: so cognizant of what you're saying at all times, and

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Speaker 1: oftentimes you need to play to the nuance of language,

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Speaker 1: and I feel like to make sure that everyone is

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Speaker 1: on the same page, or to make sure that people

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Speaker 1: aren't getting upset about the way you're saying something or

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Speaker 1: what you're saying. I feel like Robert sala is at

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Speaker 1: that stage of the relationship with Aaron Rodgers where every

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Speaker 1: week they are trying to explain something to show that

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Speaker 1: their relationship is fine. Two weeks ago it was the Hug,

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Speaker 1: right this week, there's a story when he's talking about

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Speaker 1: the cadence, he's talking about the operation. Then he needs

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Speaker 1: to backtrack and say, our operation is great. We're trying

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Speaker 1: to push the edge of the envelope with the Cadence.

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Speaker 1: All because there were five fall starts for the Jets

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Speaker 1: this past week and they look like an undisciplined, poorly

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Speaker 1: coached team and Aaron Rodgers is getting frustrated with this.

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Speaker 1: But do you get what I'm saying, Like, have you

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Speaker 1: noticed that? Do you see that? To me? That doesn't

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Speaker 1: builde well for this Jets team right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind that stuff at all. Honestly, I

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Speaker 3: think it's a good open dialogue. But I liked what

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers said back of well, maybe we should just

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Speaker 3: hold people accountable, which is the damn truth. It's like,

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Speaker 3: you're out of your mind, sal if you think Aaron

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Speaker 3: Rodgers should change the type of style he plays, especially

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Speaker 3: what he does the offensive line. It's a rhythm thing.

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Speaker 3: They'll they'll get it together. That's just a classic throw

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Speaker 3: the game out. You know, if their Kickerdy missed that

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Speaker 3: field goal, they would have won the game. Then who

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Speaker 3: really cares?

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Speaker 2: Right, But obviously it's not ideal, But at the same time, it's.

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Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I don't care, it's it's just that's the

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Speaker 3: way their team's gonna be, right. I think Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 3: the type of guy that he will always speak his mind,

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Speaker 3: especially to the media.

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Speaker 2: We've seen that when he goes on his weekly show

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Speaker 2: every week.

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Speaker 3: So it's like he's not he doesn't worry, it doesn't matter,

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Speaker 3: put it out there. So if Sala is gonna open

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Speaker 3: himself up to that stuff, you know, Sala's gonna gonna

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Speaker 3: get a lot of pushback.

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Speaker 1: I mean, poor Sala. He finally gets a quarterback that

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Speaker 1: can maybe help this team win, and it just happens

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Speaker 1: to be the most unmanageable quarterback who's going to make

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Speaker 1: him look come on, he cannot control this team in

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Speaker 1: any way, shape or form. At any time.

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Speaker 2: I would say he can control his defense. But this

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Speaker 2: is Aaron Rodgers' offense.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I think Aaron was a little pissy

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Speaker 3: where it's just like, you know, he had a dog

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Speaker 3: shit game. The offense played like shit, the defense played great,

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Speaker 3: And I think that's why there's a.

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Speaker 2: Little bit of head button there.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, not ideal, like you're saying, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: we're over too so far. Normally this would be a

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Speaker 1: spot where we smash.

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Speaker 2: We can't put this in the contest anyway, No, well.

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Speaker 1: Why we can't put a Sunday London game in the contest.

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Speaker 2: I thought last year we couldn't, but I could be wrong.

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Speaker 2: That's that is correct, all right.

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Speaker 1: We can't do that.

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Speaker 2: We can't play get it together.

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Speaker 1: God, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Sorry. It's been a very

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Speaker 1: long day so far, Miami at New England. If we

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Speaker 1: wanted to put this in the contest, we could. I

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Speaker 1: feel like this is a game, one of those games where,

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Speaker 1: all right, somebody's got to win the game. We think

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Speaker 1: the line has flipped since last night, when the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: looked worse than they possibly could and Mike McDaniels actually

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Speaker 1: said after the game there will be some changes. And

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Speaker 1: yet the Pats looked there worse for a second week

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Speaker 1: in row, completely uncompetitive against the Niners. And I don't

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Speaker 1: like betting a flipped favorite. So it feels like this

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Speaker 1: is another pass.

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Speaker 3: Right it is, I know, and I mean there are

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Speaker 3: there are again, there are games coming up that I

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Speaker 3: absolutely love, So don't don't freak out people, But this

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Speaker 3: is another game you're right, It's like I wanted to

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Speaker 3: take the Patriots. They were going to be a home dog.

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Speaker 3: This was gonna be like a no brainer play. Now

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Speaker 3: it's flipped and it's like, at what point does their

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Speaker 3: value on this Miami team? Because you're right, these are

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Speaker 3: just two terrible teams. I guess we'll just bet the under.

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Speaker 3: Let's see what the total is down to now, because

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Speaker 3: I know it was it was moving last night. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's you know, it's down to thirty five and a half,

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Speaker 3: so probably not gonna take it, but it was it

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Speaker 3: was thirty seven last night, and it's like, oh, that's

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Speaker 3: there's some value there. So yeah, just both both teams

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Speaker 3: look like they're going to finish down towards the bottom

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Speaker 3: of the AFC this year. It's just not going well

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Speaker 3: for either team right now.

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Speaker 1: I hope Mike McDaniels doesn't get fired. I think the

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Speaker 1: NFL is more fun and more interesting with him in it.

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Speaker 1: You're not as sentimental like as I am on.

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Speaker 3: That no, and especially because like I liked him at first,

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Speaker 3: but I knew if there was any if there was

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Speaker 3: a if they're ever going to start losing games, people

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Speaker 3: are gonna hate this guy.

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Speaker 2: Immediately.

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Speaker 3: They're just there's a quality to him of like, why

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Speaker 3: are you so cocky nonchalant, dude, You've never even won

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Speaker 3: a playoff game? Like what is this always wearing white

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Speaker 3: with the cool shades down in Miami type of attitude.

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Speaker 3: So I get why their fans are just starting to

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Speaker 3: turn on this guy because if he was a Philly guy,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, I would I would absolutely hate this

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Speaker 3: guy if he was up in Philadelphia. But if he

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Speaker 3: was my offensive coordinator, kind of love him. Think he's

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Speaker 3: kind of a genius. So I'm with you, Chad. It's like,

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Speaker 3: I think the guy has the skills, I just don't

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Speaker 3: know if he's got the head coach qualities.

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Speaker 1: This might be the shortest podcast we've ever done because

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Speaker 1: we clearly can't find a game that we're going to

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Speaker 1: bet on. Simon, once again, I'm going to ask you

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Speaker 1: one of the bed rock questions of our relationship. What

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00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 1: is the best ticketing app in the United States?

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Speaker 2: Game Time?

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Speaker 1: That's right, it's Game Time. As longtime listeners, now, I'm

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00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 1: a huge fan of Game Time. I use it all

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Speaker 1: the time. In fact, i'm opening the app up right now.

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Speaker 1: I'm browsing through seats using game Time Picks, which shows

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00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 1: me the best deals on the best seats, so I

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00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 1: don't have to waste my valuable time searching through thousands

347
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Speaker 1: of tickets. For example, right now I can find great

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00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 1: seats for a game for a concert, and seat views

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Speaker 1: shows me exactly what I can expect to see when

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00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 1: I sit down. Plus, when I use game times all

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00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 1: in pricing feature, I see the total price up front,

352
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 1: no surprise fees, a checkout, and with the lowest price

353
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 1: guarantee I paid the best price or game Time will

354
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 1: credit me one hundred and ten percent of the price difference.

355
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 1: Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game Time.

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00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 1: Download the game Time app, create an account, use code

357
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.

358
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 1: Just create an account and redeem code favorites for twenty

359
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 1: dollars off. We're getting to a game, okay, Carolina at Chicago.

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Speaker 1: We cash betting the Bears in the exact right spot

361
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Speaker 1: last week, Simon. Indeed, this Sunday, the first game we

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Speaker 1: identified on the show Sunday Night Carolina plus five. The

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Speaker 1: line was down to three and a half Monday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Now it's it's settled in at four. Give me your

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Speaker 1: thoughts here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was your first bet, A game I loved

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Speaker 3: as well. I think, you know, a couple of books

368
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Speaker 3: had popped all way up to five five and a

369
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Speaker 3: half and we talked that was just way too high.

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Speaker 3: Now it's right where it should be. Like, I still

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Speaker 3: like Carolina, still think this is a nice number, especially

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Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton. You know, I think this is gonna

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Speaker 3: be a good back and forth. But it's all about Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Run the ball against your team, right, can Chrue Hubbard

375
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Speaker 3: and Miles Sanders the one two punch really dominate this

376
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Speaker 3: game because that's how they're gonna have to win this game.

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Speaker 3: They're not gonna be able to win it with any Dalton, right.

378
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Speaker 3: I just think your secondary is just too good. And

379
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Speaker 3: another side, Caleb's got to do it here. Like you know,

380
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 3: me and Evan did a show before this and Maven

381
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Speaker 3: had a great bet. It was like, who you gonna

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Speaker 3: bet this week to throw over a touchdown and a

383
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Speaker 3: half Watson against this terrible Commanders defense or Williams against

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Speaker 3: this horrible.

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Speaker 2: Secondary of Carolina.

386
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Speaker 3: And it was tough, but picking between those two guys,

387
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Speaker 3: it's like, man, Caleb's got to do it here, like

388
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Speaker 3: this is a good matchup for him passing, and why

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Speaker 3: so not not one of the games I'm like super

390
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Speaker 3: happy to take now that it's moved so much. But again,

391
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Speaker 3: if it's four to four and a half, I could

392
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Speaker 3: get there. Like it just feels like that's too much

393
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Speaker 3: respect to a rookie that really hasn't deserved that much respect.

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Speaker 3: And a team we've seen historically have you know, good

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Speaker 3: wins and then just played terrible the next game, right,

396
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Speaker 3: because they're a young team. It's just it's been up

397
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Speaker 3: and down this season with this Bears team. So yeah,

398
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Speaker 3: once again, great initial read by you, but the professionals

399
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 3: will follow it, and they've bet this down by two

400
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 3: points point and a half.

401
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 1: Well, the professionals often bible me. I know they're listening

402
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: to the show and they hear my insight. They're like,

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00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: we better get that number before it moves. I don't mind.

404
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 1: I thought it was two much at five. Having watched

405
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Speaker 1: every snap of every Bears game, I feel like I

406
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: know this team and when they're trending and which way

407
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 1: in that they shouldn't be five point favorites against anybody.

408
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: And if you've watched football the last two weeks. The

409
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are just a better team with Andy Dalton right,

410
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: and their pass blocking is number two in the NFL

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Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, and that does neutralize what

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Speaker 1: is probably one of the best elements of the Bears

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Speaker 1: defense right now, which has been their pass rush. And

414
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Speaker 1: we saw it last week. It's a bad offensive line,

415
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Speaker 1: like they were all over Matthew Stafford. So I think

416
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Speaker 1: four is probably a little bit too high. Still, it

417
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: feels like it should be three. If we can get

418
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: it four and a half in the contest, I bet

419
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Speaker 1: it gets in there. It will not be It will

420
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Speaker 1: not be my executive decision. All Indianapolis at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: This is a tough one, really tough one. On Sunday night,

422
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,479
Speaker 1: we leaned Indie plus three. It's down to two and

423
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: a half. Good instincts by you. We have the classic

424
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 1: Bilo cell high philosophy versus the historical trend philosophy, the

425
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: culture high. Jags are low. Last week we bought low

426
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: or sold high on the Bears, Steelers, Raiders, Baltimore and

427
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: it totally worked. But we played the Division Dogs and

428
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Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Vikings, and we faded home division

429
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: faves in a bad spot in Houston and Green Bay.

430
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Speaker 1: So do we fade the division fave in the Jags?

431
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Speaker 1: Did we buy the failing team in the Jacks?

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Speaker 3: And I'm shocked, Like when I talked to you know,

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Speaker 3: I was in Atlantic City yesterday, I'm talking to bookmakers.

434
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 3: I'm like, you guys aren't getting any Jags money, right, Like,

435
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 3: no one's everyone's taking the Colts.

436
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 2: And he's like, shockingly, it's the cementa Jags money.

437
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 3: And I think everyone's looking the same thing where it's like,

438
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: are they really about to be zero for five? I

439
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 3: mean they're the only zero to four team right now

440
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 3: in football? And if this ain't it, this is it? Right?

441
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: Like this feels like this is the game for Doug Peterson,

442
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 3: Like if this team likes him at all.

443
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: They show up here. It's a lot, a lot to

444
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 2: put onto this team.

445
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: And obviously, you know, me and you both thought fright

446
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 3: away were like that's too high with the Colts.

447
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: Why is this number not down to one?

448
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 3: That's my big concern here, Like that means professional money

449
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: is still keeping this up on this Jaguars team. So

450
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: I'm with you, this is a game where I'll have

451
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 3: a better read on Thursday once we know what Anthony

452
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: Richardson's doing. Because to me, if it's Anthony Richardson coming

453
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: back from an injury being forced into this game.

454
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: I like the Jaguars.

455
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 3: If it's Joe Flacco after a full week of taking

456
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: first team reps, I kind of like the Colts there,

457
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: especially at a plus number. I just think that offense

458
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 3: will be better suited with a veteran like Joe Flah.

459
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: Then what me and you have experienced every time we

460
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 3: bet the Colts this year, right, you never know what's

461
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 3: gonna happen on the next play with Anthony Richardson, which

462
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 3: you know we didn't mind because we're like, you know what,

463
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 3: they'll figure it out. They have a good offense with

464
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco. It's like, Okay, he might give us one

465
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,959
Speaker 3: or two really bad throws that could turn into a

466
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 3: really bad interception, but the rest of it's just so smart.

467
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: Like even going back watching that game, he came off

468
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: the bench. I mean, that's why you get a guy

469
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: like that, like he came in no first team reps.

470
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 3: The offense isn't built around him, right, I know, obviously

471
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 3: they switch it up on the fly there, but it

472
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: was like, this is this is why he's such a

473
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 3: good guy to.

474
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 2: Have as a backup here.

475
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's my view on this right now, Chad.

476
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 3: It's like a game I'll bet on Thursday, but right

477
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 3: now I'm just gonna keep holding our Colts plus three ticket,

478
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 3: not really doing anything with this game.

479
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is elite, as he likes to say. This

480
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 1: Jacks team is a freaking mess. So think about the

481
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 1: trends for a second home faves against division opponents since

482
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen forty five percent against the spread, short home

483
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: faves since twenty sixteen against the division opponent forty five

484
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. This Jacks team, Evan Ingram likely

485
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: still out. Josh heinz Allen left the game with a concussion.

486
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: The defense is terrible, and that was before they were

487
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: missing defensive backs who won't be on the field this

488
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: week as they were not last week. They are one

489
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: to nine since they won in Houston in November to

490
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: get to eight to three last season, thirty first in

491
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 1: point margin at minus forty nine, only above the Panthers,

492
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: who by the way, are getting better, Like would you

493
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: rather be a Panthers fan or Jaguars fan. Right now,

494
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: that's the problem with this Jacks team is like it is,

495
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: it is just so so ugly, and yet we might

496
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: want to bet him.

497
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, might not bet them this week.

498
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 1: That's terrible, that's awful. So kind of another one Buffalo

499
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: with Houston. Houston is now a one point favorite. Neither

500
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 1: of these teams are making it really easy, right, Like

501
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: the Ravens were really exposed, really exposed the Bill's weaknesses,

502
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: especially in the middle field, especially against the run. Derrick

503
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: Henry finished the game with almost two hundred yards one

504
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: ninety nine and nearly ten yards per carry. Like, the

505
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: Texans are not as good without Joe Mixon, but CJ.

506
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 1: Shroud like should be able to carve up this defense

507
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: with Nico Collins, who is a giant of a human

508
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: being running over the middle.

509
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal too, and Nico Collins mean chat made a

510
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: bet on Cooper Cupp who's going to lead the league

511
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 3: in receiving yards and the other guy on my list

512
00:27:58,560 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 3: was Nico.

513
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 2: Collins And now, oh, you never told me that.

514
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, And the only reason I didn't want to hammer

515
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 3: him on the show was just because of Stefan dis

516
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 3: like I let that get me too scared off, or

517
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 3: it's like, well they'll spread the ball around or at

518
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 3: least Cooper Cup. If Puka goes down, he's the guy

519
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: we don't have to deal with the tank Dallas Dick.

520
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: So I think Nego Collins is like two hundred yards

521
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 3: up on the closest guy and second something crazy like that.

522
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: You're right.

523
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: We talked Sunday night. I said, grab the Bills plus

524
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 3: two right now, just in case they roll this Ravens

525
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 3: team and you get a good number. They got blown

526
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 3: out and this number has moved three points in that direction.

527
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: Chet. So the professionals don't care. They love the Bills in.

528
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 3: The spot, and I think they kind of have the

529
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: same view a lot of us did coming in the

530
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 3: year of Okay.

531
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: CJ.

532
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 3: Stroud did great last year, but he was so great

533
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: because no one saw it coming, and defense doesn't have

534
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: a ton of tape to build off of it. This year,

535
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: it all feels like it's been a grind for them,

536
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: right that all their games they win are close. Right now,

537
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: they're three to one with a minus fifteen point differential,

538
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: like it's the only team with that, Like they're the

539
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 3: only team that has that type of record with that

540
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: type of point differential on. It's just because you know,

541
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 3: they've won close games and they got rolled against that

542
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 3: Vikings team. So to me, this is now at the

543
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: point where Evan's gonna have the trendses too. But like,

544
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: we're gonna have to take Houston, especially if this number

545
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 3: keeps going. If this touch is two two and a half,

546
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 3: this is an automatic play in the contest because that's

547
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 3: just too much disrespect for this Houston.

548
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: Team at home.

549
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 3: And me and you like to bet CJ is a

550
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,479
Speaker 3: dog like that. Till last year we kind of were

551
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 3: stayed away from as a favorite, but as a dog,

552
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 3: we love CJ. He's just really good when he's kind

553
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 3: of counted out in these positions. So this is like

554
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: a perfect spot for a Houston team that they're zero

555
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: to four against the spread. Because the books, they knew

556
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: the public will keep coming in on them. They could

557
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 3: set the line and every week, whether it was a

558
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: half a point they wouldn't cover by or they were

559
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: a getting rolled, they kept not covering. I think we're

560
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: finally gonna get caught up here with the book chat.

561
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna finally get a good number year

562
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 3: on Houston. That's gonna have the value for them and

563
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: top you said the name Joe Mixon, That to me

564
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 3: is what I'm waiting for here. Like, if he's guaranteed

565
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 3: to play this game, he's good to go. That to

566
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 3: me is a huge dealt to this Houston team. You

567
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: just seen his identity really changed his team early in

568
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 3: the season when he was playing, how they could just

569
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 3: lean on their run and make everything else so much

570
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: easier on offense. So I like that you brought up

571
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 3: his name. Just that's something people to keep an eye

572
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 3: on this week. If Joe Mix is going to be

573
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 3: finally practicing.

574
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: The line flip also is something, yeah, a trend that

575
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: we always like to look at it, And now it feels

576
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: like we're getting a at least a comparable team to

577
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: the Bills at home. Also might be getting them at

578
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: a little point. So I like the idea of playing

579
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 1: Houston here. I do think it has a good chance

580
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: of getting into the contest, depending on how this number moves.

581
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: I think it's optimistic to think it might get to

582
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 1: two or two and a half. I think it's probably

583
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: settling in at that one. To two range. I still

584
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: wouldn't be that afraid to play the Texans, though, if

585
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: I can get them as underdog in the contest, I

586
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: kind of like it either way.

587
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: You're right, the books will eventually take a stand, but

588
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: I think I'll just keep moving because it's professional money

589
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: moving it right now, like action app it's what bets.

590
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 3: Eighty percent of the money right now is on the bills.

591
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, you know, eventually you're right. The pros will

592
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 3: come back in on it, but they're going to keep

593
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: moving it eventually.

594
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: I'm always right, just sometimes it takes time, but I

595
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 1: tell my wife, eventually I'm going to be right. Give

596
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: it five years, ten years, thirty years, whatever it takes.

597
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 1: One of these days, it's gonna happen. You know, what

598
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: is right, Simon, what's right is Tommy John. I mentioned

599
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: to you at the top of the show that we

600
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,400
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601
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,440
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602
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,400
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603
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,400
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604
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: wearing our Tommy John underwear on the Thursday show. When

605
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 1: we make that call I don't think so oh, got

606
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: a huge box of swag from Tommy John yesterday. I'm

607
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: wearing wearing right now, very soft, like I don't even

608
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,280
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609
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,800
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610
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,520
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611
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612
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Speaker 1: you haven't bought Tommy John knowing how much it makes

613
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:34,080
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614
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: love Simon, you love me, you love this show, You

615
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,800
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618
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: Simon Baltimore's Cincinnati we got a good spot here, Cincinnati

619
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: plus three home dog. It's a good spot for home dogs.

620
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: Are we primed to sell high on the Ravens here

621
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: and buy a struggling Bengals team.

622
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: Simon says, grab the plus three right now. When Simon says,

623
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 2: we do what Simon says.

624
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: There's no way this last. It's gonna go to plus

625
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 3: two and a half. It has to come back down.

626
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 3: This is just way too much movement. I knew coming

627
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 3: into this week we were probably gonna be on them.

628
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 3: I think we talked Sunday night. I said the number

629
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: was plus one on Cincy. Don't touch this weight. Even

630
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: if they lose the Ravens Rockets still see that number moving.

631
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 3: And they went the other way where they blew that

632
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: team out, And now it's moved the whole point in

633
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 3: a half and now it's two and a half. Some

634
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 3: books up to three. Like you just said, so too

635
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 3: much of a reaction to this team. And we talk

636
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 3: all the time, these divisional games are just different. You

637
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 3: have to think about them differently. You have to view

638
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 3: it differently because these teams are just so familiar with

639
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 3: each other. And you know, as dominant the Ravens looked

640
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 3: in that game, there was still some part of me

641
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: that's just like, there's still a way to attack this team,

642
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 3: and there's still a way to get away with why

643
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: they're not you know, this overwhelming the league diminant team

644
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,919
Speaker 3: like they were last year. So to me, the line

645
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 3: reflects the public reaction to this. But I am shocked

646
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 3: and moved this much. I'm just shocked professionals that have

647
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 3: moved this much because I already loved Sinceanty come to

648
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 3: this game, and now you know, when you really dive

649
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 3: into the numbers, Joe Burrow, he's playing an MVP level.

650
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 3: It's another little bet I'm gonna steal from Evan. If

651
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: you like me and you like the Bengals to pull

652
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 3: the upset off and win this game, you might as

653
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 3: well go through a little bet on Joe Burrow to

654
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 3: b MVP because if he wins this game and he's

655
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 3: all right, so this team starts zero for three this year,

656
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 3: they win this divisional game. Now they're two to three,

657
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: you know, just like the Ravens, and we see the

658
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 3: season play out and he does win this division. I

659
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 3: could see it being a great value bet right now

660
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 3: in Joe Burrow because he just played so well this

661
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 3: season and just the way their defenses as well. I

662
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 3: feel like he's always gona keep putting up stats. Right

663
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 3: He's got seven touchdowns win interception right now, I see

664
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 3: that keep being getting better throughout the season because there's

665
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 3: just going to be so much put onto his shoulders

666
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 3: to lead this offense. So I love the offensive style

667
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 3: Cincinnati matching up for this Baltimore defense. And then on

668
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: the flip side, we've just seen it before, like Cincinnati

669
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 3: always plays them really tough, Like defensively, Eve only had

670
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 3: their backup in last year that came down to the

671
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 3: last possession type of game. So I do like the

672
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 3: Cincinnati team, but I am shocked. Shocked you can get

673
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: a plus three right now.

674
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe Burrow has been playing great. We loved this

675
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: team heading into the season. It's been disappointing that they

676
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 1: are zero and three and look for talking about one

677
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: in three now, I mean one in three Home division

678
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: dog trends September October the division dog in the last

679
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: decade at home sixty percent against the spread fifty four percent,

680
00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: so a slight ROI positive since twenty two, three to

681
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: zero to one against the spread this season home division dogs.

682
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's the exact right spot to play the Bengals.

683
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 1: You gotta do it. Here's a crazy stat though about

684
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. Forget about how well he played the other

685
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: night against Buffalo, one hundred and ninety nine yards first

686
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: play the game, eighty seven yard touchdown run Simon he

687
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 1: reached twenty one point two nine miles per hour when

688
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: he was running for that touchdown. According to Next Gen Stats,

689
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:40,959
Speaker 1: that's the fourth fastest speed by anyone any ballcarrier this year.

690
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: I don't think of Derrick Henry and automatically think, oh, yeah,

691
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: this guy's so speedy. He's reached a speed of twenty

692
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: miles per hour or faster twenty seven times since twenty eighteen.

693
00:36:54,800 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: Only one player has done it more than him. We kill.

694
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: Is that insane?

695
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 2: It is.

696
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 3: He's just when you think of like the great freak

697
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 3: athletes ever played this sport, you know, Calvin Johnson, Derrick

698
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 3: Henry is like right up there. Like I always think

699
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 3: of all those old bow Bow Knows commercials when it

700
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 3: was like, yeah, this is what we envisioned him to be,

701
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: and it's like, Derrick Henry's him times ten. Right. It's

702
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 3: just especially what it's a year thirty he's I mean,

703
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 3: he's thirty years old this year.

704
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: It's year it's year thirty for him in the NFL.

705
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 2: I mean I just thought he would be dropped off.

706
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 3: I was one of those people where was like, uh,

707
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 3: it's an upgrade for the Ravens at the running back position,

708
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 3: but how much tread does he have left in.

709
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,479
Speaker 2: The tires apparently a lot.

710
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 3: Apparently last year he might have taken the year off,

711
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 3: and he's got a plenty left. So yeah, that first

712
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 3: play was just it's the best. I like, there's nothing

713
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: like first play. Run, hits the whole right, and then

714
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: they're just gone. I think it's I'd have that fact check,

715
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 3: but I believe it was like the longest play or

716
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 3: running back has ever had in Ravens history.

717
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: So fat he's running. Evan says that is correct simon

718
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 1: the fact he's running twenty miles an hour and doing

719
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: it more often than anybody in the league's since since

720
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: other than Tyreek Hill. Is phenomenal because you only think

721
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 1: about him as being the guy who gets the hard yards,

722
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: who stiff arms people, who runs people over, who makes

723
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: people look bad. I don't think I really had a

724
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: full understanding or appreciation of just how superhuman he is

725
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: as an athlete. I'll tell you what those State Farm

726
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: commercials don't do it.

727
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: You're alive.

728
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: Cleveland at Washington. Washington is a three point favorite. I

729
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: want to fade the Commanders so badly here. But this

730
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: Browns team, it's not even Deshaun Watson. It's their offensive line,

731
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 1: like now Ethan Poseick, the center who left the game

732
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: last weekendst the Raiders. He's day to day with an

733
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 1: ankle injury. And when you look at the Browns, don't

734
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: forget last week we had the Raiders at like a

735
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 1: short number is a favorite, one, one and a half, two,

736
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: whatever it was. I don't know, I don't remember talking

737
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: to you about this. When the Raiders all of a sudden,

738
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 1: we're underdogs because Crosby was out, Adams was out whatever.

739
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: I didn't buy out of my bet. I just let

740
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: it ride with the Raiders that win and a AX,

741
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't think it matters. I don't think

742
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: this Cleveland king team can do anything.

743
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, we actually we did talk a upon of contentst

744
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 3: because they're two and a half in our contest. We're like,

745
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: should we take it?

746
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 2: And then we just again we didn't want to lose

747
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 2: the numbers we.

748
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: Had, But yeah, that's that Cardinals bet in there.

749
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,959
Speaker 3: Yeah. Now, I think it was honestly because we didn't

750
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 3: want to lose the seven and a half on the

751
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: charger because that was six and a half, which being

752
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 3: the right move.

753
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's I don't know what to deal with

754
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 2: this one.

755
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 1: Because it's really you want to bet the Browns.

756
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 3: It's honestly, we're making a bet though on Schwartz in

757
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: this defense. That's that's like the position here.

758
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 1: It's like, okay, the defense that is getting crushed right now.

759
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 2: I know, and we talked coming in the year.

760
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: This is why I didn't like the Browns though, because

761
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: we've seen in his circle of data with Schwartz, his

762
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 3: defense is really dominant one year and then the next

763
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 3: year they're they're completely not the same, like whatever that is.

764
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 2: They just don't carry it over from year to year.

765
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 3: And that's usually how it is with defenses, right, It's

766
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: just so hard to carry that type of momentum from

767
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 3: year to year, you know, mixing that MOUs Garrett's you know,

768
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 3: gonna have to get Shurger're on his feet whenever this

769
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: whenever he is and ever the season is over.

770
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: What are we betting here?

771
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 3: Like everything in my body, even my model likes Washington, Like,

772
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 3: I still think this number is too low fishy and

773
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 3: like someone someone messages me like, oh, it's because Nick

774
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 3: Chubb's coming back.

775
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: I promise you.

776
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 3: The sports books aren't holding this number here because Nick

777
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 3: Chubb's coming back. That's that they do not care, and

778
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 3: I'm the same thing. I him coming off a major

779
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 3: knee injury in his first start. Yeah, it's good for Cleveland,

780
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 3: but like, does it really move the needle that much?

781
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

782
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 3: So maybe I'll have the better read my talk to

783
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: some other professionals. But like, I haven't made a single

784
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 3: bet on this game. It got the three at one

785
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 3: point Washington. As soon as I called the book to

786
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 3: make a bet on it, they moved it right back

787
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 3: up to three, and so I never was able to

788
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 3: get the three on Washington.

789
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: So fishy, fishy line this week. This is one of

790
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 2: the fishy air lines this week, and.

791
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 3: I just have no read on it where it's like

792
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: the pro in me is like, dude, you got to

793
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 3: take Cleveland hearing me, But the guy who's watched football

794
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 3: through four weeks is just like one team has never

795
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: been more sure of itself and confident in its ability.

796
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 3: The other team has totally lost. And Chad just said

797
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 3: they have even more injuries now to that offensive line.

798
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: The Commanders are averaging thirty points a game and they

799
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: have scored more points each week than they did the

800
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 1: week before.

801
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: That's crazy.

802
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,439
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels, who I feel like you started talking about

803
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: him as potential offensive rookie of the year before the

804
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: season started. Am I remembering that correctly?

805
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, we loved them.

806
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 3: We said it was just basically that why should Williams

807
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 3: be the odds on favorite guy? It's like their skill

808
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 3: level wasn't that different. I just my whole pushback was just,

809
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, if they're both six

810
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 3: and ten, seven to ten, it's like if it's a

811
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 3: coin flip, they're gonna get it to every's a better

812
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 3: stat So I thought it should have been closer number.

813
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 3: But yeah, it wasn't a I wish it was a table.

814
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 3: I was like banging on the table, being like, you

815
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 3: have to bet Jaden Daniels, but nothing like that.

816
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: Well, Jaden Daniels has completed more than eighty two percent

817
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: of his passes. Crazy eighty seven for one oh six.

818
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: That's not that's like for the season. It's the two

819
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: most accurate back to back performances against Cincinnati and Arizona

820
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: the past two weeks by anyone. Ever. No one has

821
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 1: ever had a more accurate first four games. And by

822
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: the way, he's got two hundred and eighteen rushing yards.

823
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: It's the second most by a quarterback in his first

824
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: four games other than RG three. We talked about those comps,

825
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: like this guy is flashing CJ. Stroud vibes for this

826
00:42:55,640 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 1: Washington team, and after four games, I feel like the

827
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: projection what you see is what you get. It's not

828
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: he's going to all of a sudden crater. He might

829
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: toe play well like he's he's a good quarterback, like

830
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: he's fitting into this league. He's going to make the

831
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 1: right decisions. He's not a rookie quarterback who you need

832
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 1: to desperately be afraid of.

833
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 3: He will hit the rookie wall, though. That's inevitable. Everyone

834
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 3: everyone hits it. That's just why, Like you know, Ev't

835
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 3: had that amazing stat a couple of years ago, and

836
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 3: pretty minute the NFC Championship game, and they lost because

837
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 3: no rookie ever makes it pass that championship game.

838
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: Even they lost that because they tore his arm off.

839
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm saying, just historically, even go back further,

840
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 3: I'm saying it never happens, just because eventually you do

841
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 3: hit that wall, Like eventually they do get enough film

842
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 3: on these rookies that a team they run into a

843
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 3: team that is good enough to figure out that game

844
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 3: plan right now. It's like, even if they it's the

845
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: best defense in football, how do you not feel confident

846
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 3: right now in this kid? Even I know he's beat

847
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 3: up on bad defenses, but he just looks so cool, calm, collected,

848
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 3: and you just right off to all those numbers. It's like,

849
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 3: even if he takes a little step down, it's still

850
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 3: an all pro level. That's what's so impressive about this

851
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 3: kid right now.

852
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: If he takes a little step down, then all of

853
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: a sudden, he's having a slightly worse start to his

854
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: career than Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes right right, Seriously,

855
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:22,760
Speaker 1: that's what happens.

856
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 2: So I don't know what to deal with it.

857
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 3: Like I said, I eventually it's gonna come the other

858
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 3: way though, because teams will get more film on them,

859
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 3: and it just like, there's a reason these coaches are getting.

860
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 2: Paid millions of dollars.

861
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 3: They're really good at what they do, and they do

862
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 3: eventually figure you out and how to make you uncomfortable

863
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 3: and get in your head a little bit. But he's

864
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 3: playing like a quarterback that is not thinking totally immersing

865
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 3: the offense and he looks like someone that's never taken

866
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 3: a really bad hit in the pocket, right He just

867
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: he's so confident in the pocket right now. Even in

868
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 3: games where he's gotten blown up, he gets back up

869
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 3: and he's just so cool. Calm doesn't even phase him.

870
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: So again, Washington fans, you just I can't imagine being

871
00:44:58,680 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 3: a fan of Washing right now.

872
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 2: It's gotta be the best filling in the world.

873
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: Bears fans might disagree with you about. These coaches are

874
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: really good at what they do and that's why they

875
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 1: get paid millions a million. These defenses are right, Yeah,

876
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: I'm not talking about that. I'm not talking about our

877
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator Las Vegas and Denver. Denver is a two

878
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Look, this is a spot

879
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: where we should probably want to fade the home division favorite.

880
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 1: I've said this a bunch of times. What's weird to

881
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: me is we both talked about this on Sunday. It

882
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 1: was a two and a half. It's the game we

883
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 1: wanted to bet at two and a half. This number

884
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 1: went down to two, but then all of a sudden

885
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 1: yesterday it went up to two and a half, and

886
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 1: then it was at three, and I don't understand now

887
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: it's back down to two and a half. I don't

888
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 1: understand why it went up to three and why the

889
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: wise guys aren't pouring in on this game because I

890
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: think I still love the Raiders here.

891
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do too. I think it's a view of it.

892
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 2: The vibes might be horrible in Las Vegas and what's

893
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 2: going on with all the injuries there.

894
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 3: So I'm sure you saw this morning, DeVante Adams is

895
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 3: getting asked all these questions by Ky Adams. It's like,

896
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 3: why is your coach liking post about you being traded?

897
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 3: Have you have you heard anything from the team? And

898
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 3: Adam Schefter is reporting that apparently this team's exploring trade

899
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 3: options for Devonte Adams. So you know, maybe this guy's

900
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 3: a cancer and he's helping drag this team down this week.

901
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: And that's what guys are thinking.

902
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 3: It's like, well, I don't want to bet this team

903
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: with all this turmoil going on where they're trying to

904
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 3: trade their number one receiver.

905
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 2: I kind of look at the other way. It's like

906
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 2: he didn't play last week.

907
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 3: In the offense, they seem like they moved the ball

908
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 3: pretty well, right, and obviously they'd be better if he

909
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 3: was in there, but they're not totally reliant on him.

910
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 3: I think, I mean you, the biggest reason we wanted

911
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 3: to take this is we're getting to fade. Bo Nicks

912
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 3: is a favorite, yes, like automatically right already, where it's

913
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: like we want to be on divisional dogs in the

914
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,439
Speaker 3: first place. Now you're mixing that it's a rookie QB

915
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 3: favoriteed same reason we kind of like like the Panthers,

916
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 3: it's like, as much as respect we want to give

917
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 3: you these rookies, all three of them are favored right

918
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 3: now this week, and it's like that usually does not

919
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 3: bode well for a bunch of rookies, And the only

920
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 3: one we're really terrified to fade is the best looking one,

921
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 3: right Jay and Daniels and the other two, I think

922
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 3: we're both in the same mentality of like, yeah, i'll

923
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: take that plus three on the Raiders, I'll take that

924
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 3: plus two and a half. So it's another bet where

925
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 3: I bet it. No need to put any more on

926
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: it if you've already bet it. Let's wait and see

927
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,959
Speaker 3: what if Max Crosby's back, Like what the injury report

928
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 3: is for this upcoming week for this Raiders team, but

929
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 3: this is like a game I was like, this is

930
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 3: probably be one of me and Chad's five. Now, if

931
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 3: this gets up to three three and a half and

932
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 3: we can put in our contest at that number, this

933
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 3: is a no brainer play if we're catching over three

934
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 3: against boon Nicks in a divisional game. So yeah, this

935
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 3: is a game I really like. Only fear is we

936
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 3: don't really know what's going on with the health wise

937
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 3: of this Raiders team.

938
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 1: I'll be very interested to see what the sharp calls

939
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 1: are here, because this also might end up being a

940
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 1: foxhol Like you and I just might be liking the

941
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 1: Raiders and everyone else might be seeing something. And it's

942
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 1: not about the Broncos offense. It's really about is their

943
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,919
Speaker 1: defense better than people think.

944
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 3: I do have a really good pass rush, I'll say, like,

945
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 3: thanks for bringing that up. They do have some dogs

946
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 3: up front.

947
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 1: They've got like their defense is much much better than

948
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: I think people are giving them credit for. And it's

949
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,280
Speaker 1: why they've been able to stay in games against the Seahawks.

950
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 1: It's why they were able to stay in the game

951
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 1: against the Jets and ultimately win that game. Obviously the

952
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: weather held, But when you've got a quarterback who is,

953
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: by the way, having the worst outing in a game

954
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:49,240
Speaker 1: since nineteen sixty five. He had a whopping sixty yards

955
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: and averaged two point four yards per pass, the third

956
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: lowest average YPA by any quarterback with twenty five or

957
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: more pass in modern history. In the Super Bowl, I

958
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 1: love him.

959
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:06,919
Speaker 2: And guess what your early four games, four wins away

960
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 2: for Denver hitting their win total over So yeah, that's

961
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 2: that was a pretty big win last week.

962
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: We love us some Sean Payton, We truly do. He's

963
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 1: the better's friend Arizona at San Francisco. San Francisco seven

964
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. A couple of trends are

965
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 1: forcing us to take the Cardinals seriously right now, Home

966
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 1: division faves forty five percent since twenty fifteen, dogs of

967
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 1: six or more, eight and five straight up against the spread,

968
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:39,879
Speaker 1: twelve and one through twelve and one against spread through

969
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:43,320
Speaker 1: the first few games. I'm sorry, I got update that

970
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: it's nine to eight straight up, fourteen to two to

971
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 1: one against the spread through the first four weeks. We

972
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 1: don't want to take the Cardinals, but I think we

973
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 1: have to take the Cardinals.

974
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 3: I think we might have to take the forty nine

975
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 3: ers some well respected guys, friend, like the forty nine ers,

976
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 3: and I don't want to go against them. I know

977
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 3: I wanted to be on the Cardinals here, like this

978
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 3: is a big number. Big big dogs have been covering

979
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 3: this number. Big dogs have been winning outright at this number.

980
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 3: I might be getting bullied into the forty nine ers,

981
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 3: your brother, just some I'm just telling on you to

982
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 3: be careful with this.

983
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 1: Listen, you be careful. You be careful. You know why.

984
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 1: You know why. We've been getting bullied all season on

985
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: some games, and every time we get bullied and go

986
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: against our instincts, we end up being wrong. Number of

987
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: the Packers. Yes, the Packers last weekend talking Minnesota. True,

988
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 1: we were talking Minnesota the whole week.

989
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 2: I love them.

990
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 1: We talk on Sunday morning. You're like, I'm getting bullied

991
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 1: right now, kind of like the Packers.

992
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 2: I'm like, these guys guys win big money.

993
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 3: Brother, you wanted to make the forty nine ers our

994
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 3: foxhole bet, and I wouldn't let you do it because

995
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 3: a big time sharp message meing was like stay away

996
00:50:57,760 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: from the forty nine ers. Now, I fucked up by

997
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 3: some because I was like, well, we go ahead and

998
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: fade that guy and take this team against the Vikings,

999
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 3: which was an idiot move.

1000
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, that I just want to throw caution.

1001
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 3: There's there's there's some really smart people right now in

1002
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 3: this forty nine ers team, and it's just I need

1003
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 3: more time in this one because right now I got

1004
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 3: this model at six. So it's like I got a

1005
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 3: point in a half of value on this Cardinals team.

1006
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 3: I'm clearly missing something here, and maybe it's me being

1007
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 3: too high on Kyler and not probably rating him because

1008
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 3: we all got sucked in. He played great against the Bills,

1009
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 3: you know, first half wise, and then he dominated the Rams,

1010
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 3: had literally a perfect game, and it's just been shit

1011
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 3: since then. Like you know that that was a brutal beat,

1012
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 3: specially for me last week where he drove the field,

1013
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 3: I just over a touchdown and a half first drive,

1014
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 3: drives a field, throws a touchdown pass, and then he

1015
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 3: just does nothing the rest of the game. So I

1016
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 3: think that's the hesitation chat. I think the pros are

1017
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 3: hesitating on him. Where Brock Purdy, he's sneakily what the

1018
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 3: third or fourth best playing quarterback right now football, Like,

1019
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 3: I know he's not getting the flowers because they're two

1020
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 3: and two. But man, he's been playing incredible this season

1021
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 3: rock Purty, So I think that's hesitation here. We have

1022
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,360
Speaker 3: one team playing the best they've looked all season. On

1023
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 3: the flip side, we don't know what the hell of

1024
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 3: this Cardinals team is. They just have now looked right

1025
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: these last two weeks.

1026
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 1: This is when you buy.

1027
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 2: I agree.

1028
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 1: What are the stats when you are betting on the

1029
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: team that just blown out versus the team that just

1030
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: blew so right? This is the exact spot to bet

1031
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. Evan. If before the end of the show,

1032
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 1: you can give us the blowout stats, that would be amazing.

1033
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 1: Because I like this. This makes no sense, it makes Please.

1034
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,359
Speaker 2: Get me on the Cardinals. Man, I don't I want

1035
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 2: to get there.

1036
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:59,839
Speaker 1: It makes no sense at all. Nobody bullies my bff Simon.

1037
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 2: Nobody, they do. They do Chad New York.

1038
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: Giants at Seattle. Seattle's minus six and a half look

1039
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 1: before before the game last night. Brandon Anderson on his

1040
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 1: show with Evan Abrams Sunday Nights Action netwrapot download listen,

1041
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 1: great show. He has his hot reat segment. He liked

1042
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:20,759
Speaker 1: the Giants or he liked the Seahawks. That I think

1043
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 1: it was minus five or five and a half. That

1044
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: number lasted for about as long as it took Brandon

1045
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: Anderson to say, take the Seahawks at minus five or

1046
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: five and a half. It's settled in at six and

1047
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 1: a half. Hasn't really moved since the Seahawks were blown

1048
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 1: out last night. I kind of think Seattle is the

1049
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 1: right side. The Giants aren't very good, the Seahawks. They

1050
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 1: just met the Lions team at the exact right time.

1051
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 1: It never made sense to me why wise guys were

1052
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 1: buying the Seahawks. We talked about this. Now they get

1053
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 1: to go back to playing bad quarterbacks and bad teams

1054
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 1: and fooling professionals into thinking they are amazing.

1055
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 3: But at what point is this number two high? I

1056
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 3: think you just said it. It's like it's up the

1057
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 3: plus six. How much respect do we want to give

1058
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 3: this Seahawks team? Do they just deserve all this respect

1059
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 3: that this team is getting right now, and especially where.

1060
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 2: They're on a short week.

1061
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 3: I know they're at home, but they're playing They're on

1062
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 3: a short week, playing against a team that had extended rest.

1063
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 2: And we're getting late.

1064
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:16,239
Speaker 3: I know it doesn't feel like we're getting late to

1065
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 3: the season here, but this is week five, Like that's

1066
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 3: a big deal to these guys' bodies to heal that way.

1067
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 3: So ah, man, I want to be in the Giants,

1068
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 3: but I'll just wait. Give me, give me a six

1069
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:29,839
Speaker 3: and a half, sports books. Let me get a six

1070
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 3: and a half so I can come in the summer.

1071
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 2: But it's six.

1072
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 3: I guess I'll just wait here at this point, Chad.

1073
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:36,800
Speaker 3: But yeah, I actually kind of like the Giants in

1074
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 3: this spot.

1075
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to the Cardinals for a second,

1076
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 1: because I think I like thee I like I like

1077
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 1: the Seahawks in this spot. I like it up to

1078
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 1: seven Cardinals. I don't even know what the final score

1079
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: of that game was. I stopped watching it because.

1080
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:51,760
Speaker 2: I was forty five fourteen.

1081
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 1: I think forty five to fourteen. Teams to lose by

1082
00:54:55,320 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 1: seventeen versus a team who won by seventeen the previous

1083
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 1: week sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years.

1084
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: One matchup meets this criteria this week Arizona Cardinals, Evan.

1085
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 1: How about teams that have been blown out by thirty

1086
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 1: points or more the following week against the spread? Let's

1087
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 1: see what that one is. And while you look that up.

1088
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 2: All I heard was I have a four and ten

1089
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 2: chance of hitting that forty nine ers.

1090
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 1: But well, that that's, by the way, that's the beauty

1091
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 1: of the betting, right. It is like, and we've talked

1092
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,520
Speaker 1: about this. We go two and three, we go two

1093
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 1: and three, we go one and four. We just as

1094
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 1: easily could have gone three two three, two, four and

1095
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: one if not for the tiny, most infinitesimal percentages, the

1096
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 1: best probabilistic thinking. Green Bay at the Los Angeles Rams.

1097
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams are three and a half point home underdogs. Look,

1098
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 1: I think the Packers in the second half last week

1099
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: with Jordan Love started to get back into form. I

1100
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 1: think this Rams team is unhealthy mentally, unhealthy physically. They're struggling.

1101
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 1: I think if Jaye Alexander comes back. He did not play,

1102
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 1: and that was a big deal in the loss of

1103
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 1: the Vikings, justin Jefferson with them up. I like the

1104
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 1: Packers here.

1105
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:25,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I took the Rams of three and a half.

1106
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 3: I'm with you, though I thought I was gonna be

1107
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 3: in the Packers just because it's like, Okay, Jordan Love

1108
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 3: Hardy got his little you know, bad game out of

1109
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: the way. He should tear up this Rams secondary. Then

1110
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 3: you kind of dive into it. It's like, this actually

1111
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 3: isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team

1112
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 3: who wants to run the ball, and it seems like

1113
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 3: Green Bay that's kind of their weakness right now. Teams

1114
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 3: could kind of run the ball against him and that

1115
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 3: sets up the pass, which is what Stafford needs. I mean,

1116
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 3: you just saw it against the Bears team. It's like

1117
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 3: once the Bears finally took away the run, that's how

1118
00:56:56,320 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 3: they shut down that team last week. So this is

1119
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 3: a very telling line Chat that it's it's heavy professional

1120
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 3: money coming in on the Rams. Seeing a couple of

1121
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 3: books already move this to three, So.

1122
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,359
Speaker 1: Great, great, then I'm taking the package at three.

1123
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 2: Don't get cocky, Chat, this is where they get you.

1124
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 2: Don't get cocky. This is where they get you. So

1125
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 2: just be careful.

1126
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 1: You gotta clip that and if the Packers don't cover three,

1127
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 1: you got play that back on Sunday night.

1128
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 2: Oh just everyone be careful. Like I already was like,

1129
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 2: what is this line?

1130
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 3: I'm in total agreece with Chat where I initially wanted

1131
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 3: to just hammer this, especially now that Jordan loves back, but.

1132
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 2: There's something something going on here. I got this number

1133
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 2: at three, so if it's three and a half, I'm

1134
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 2: gonna I'll be on the RAMS side.

1135
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 3: If it gets down to two and a half, me

1136
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 3: and Chad will take that value on green Bay here.

1137
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 3: So this is this is a big, big about the

1138
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 3: number kind of line.

1139
00:57:56,600 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: I hate when you when you say it like that.

1140
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: We have been doing this show long enough for me

1141
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 1: to know when you say be careful watch out. It's not, oh, Chad,

1142
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 1: like you're being silly. It feels like you know something

1143
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 1: more about this than you probably feel comfortable saying.

1144
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: No, it's a money thing. If I say what I

1145
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 3: want to say, I have to pay someone a lot

1146
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 3: of money for give them out their info. So it's

1147
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 3: basically just my tongue in cheek way of not having

1148
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 3: to pay someone six figures for using their good info?

1149
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:32,479
Speaker 2: Is the truth?

1150
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: Interesting? We feel, but I'm not wrong. It's like you're

1151
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 1: telling me something I am.

1152
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, this is one of these that jump off

1153
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 3: the board to me this week. Wow, Yeah, this is

1154
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 3: big man. The big Man bets Chad.

1155
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 2: This is probably can be a big balls better of

1156
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 2: the week. Shut up, Come on, this takes balls. Look

1157
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 2: at you right now, you're hating every moment of this.

1158
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 1: I am hating every moment of it. I was gonna

1159
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 1: go with Arizona speaking of their teams to lose by

1160
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: twenty eight plus points the previous week. More stats, and

1161
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 1: our dogs are four plus points or more the following week,

1162
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 1: sixty two percent against the spread the following week. Come on, Simon, like, no,

1163
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 1: you know what, you know what.

1164
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 3: It's gonna be a fun week of sharp cause I'm

1165
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 3: already looking forward to our Thursday show.

1166
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 1: Oh my god. Now I thought I knew what my

1167
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 1: exact decision was gonna be, and now you know what.

1168
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 1: I'm sticking with it, all right. So Green Bay Rams

1169
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: like I don't know what we're doing. Clearly we're putting

1170
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:42,280
Speaker 1: it on a list.

1171
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 2: I'm on the Rams. I know exactly what I'm doing.

1172
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 1: Okay. Saturday Football Dallas at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh's two and a

1173
00:59:50,520 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 1: half on Sunday night. My first instinct was down.

1174
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:54,680
Speaker 2: Who's your buddy? Who's your buddy?

1175
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: It warned you, Yeah, you wore me off it. You

1176
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 1: wore me off it, and you didn't like it for

1177
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 1: the matchup. But also now, like Micah Parsons is doubtful.

1178
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 1: DeMarcus Lawrence is out. Yes, So no strong opinion here.

1179
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 2: No, Still, I still like Pittsburgh.

1180
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 3: I liked him at two. My view of it was

1181
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 3: they match up well with what this Dallas team wants

1182
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 3: to do. That Dallas wants to pass the ball. Pittsburgh

1183
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 3: wants you to pass the ball. That's where they get

1184
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:21,560
Speaker 3: their turnovers, that's where they make teams to make mistakes.

1185
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 2: So I like that.

1186
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 3: My only hesitation right now with Pittsburgh is, you know,

1187
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 3: their number one, number two running back might be out

1188
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 3: of this game. Cordella Patterson might end up being their

1189
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 3: number one running back here, which it's not ideal but

1190
01:00:35,760 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 3: lucky for us. Dallas is one of the worst run

1191
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 3: defenses in all of football. So yeah, maybe I'll get

1192
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 3: you there come Sunday, Chad, But right now I do I.

1193
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 2: Don't feel Pittsburgh.

1194
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:50,760
Speaker 1: I don't feel like, well, you've gone from like I

1195
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 1: kind of like Pittsburgh too.

1196
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 2: I really like Pittsburgh just because of the injuries. You

1197
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 2: just nailed it with injuries, Like I don't have their

1198
01:00:56,960 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: best defenders are.

1199
01:00:57,800 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 1: Out, I'm not, and their two best defender is on

1200
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 1: a team that only has five guys that played different line,

1201
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: So I don't I don't hate the Steelers in this

1202
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 1: spot at all. I just didn't feel strongly about it.

1203
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:10,479
Speaker 3: I think you have good hesitation because this is usually

1204
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 3: where Toman lets us down right exactly.

1205
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 2: That's why I understand your hesitation prime.

1206
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: A favorite as a favorite, and it's Justin Fields. And

1207
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:22,720
Speaker 1: we saw Justin Fields in his full Justin Fields three

1208
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:26,440
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty degree experience the other day against the Colts,

1209
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: and thank god it worked out in our favor. But

1210
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 1: he was brilliant, made terrible mistakes. Brilliant made terrible mistakes.

1211
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 1: That's that's my hesitation here.

1212
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 2: So I got that stat ringing in my head.

1213
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 3: It's like, the real bad here is is Dallas gonna

1214
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 3: scored more than twenty points because we know if they can't,

1215
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 3: this is an easy one for Pittsburgh. If they can,

1216
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 3: you're right, we'll probably lose this bet on Pittsburgh. So

1217
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:48,200
Speaker 3: that's that's definitely something that's ring in the back of

1218
01:01:48,240 --> 01:01:48,800
Speaker 3: my head right now.

1219
01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints are I mean

1220
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansasity Chiefs are five and

1221
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 1: a half point favorites now in some spots still five

1222
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 1: at three six five, but five and a half in

1223
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 1: other places. Simon, Yeah, the New Orleans Saints.

1224
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:12,640
Speaker 2: There we go.

1225
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:14,840
Speaker 1: Are my executive decision.

1226
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 2: Good man?

1227
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 1: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

1228
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:24,240
Speaker 2: Are you have your honor's text to kute number executive decision?

1229
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 2: It was going to be the Cardinals.

1230
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 1: I almost came off it. It's going to be the Saints.

1231
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 1: Chiefs now have a ten game winning streak dating back

1232
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 1: to last season. Do you know what their margin of

1233
01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: victory is in those games? Aggregate sixty one points? Yeah,

1234
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 1: average margin of victory this season five point three points

1235
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: through the first the first three weeks of this season.

1236
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 1: They're now gone wide receiver for she Rice led the

1237
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 1: league in receptions, was top two in yards, top two

1238
01:02:55,800 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 1: in targets and team target share. Howwood Brown for the season.

1239
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: He was expected to be a big contributor. Now knows

1240
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 1: Rashid Rice still know Isaiah Piccheco. We saw what happened

1241
01:03:10,640 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 1: when they didn't have these players and they were leading

1242
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 1: into Kareem Hunt on Sunday, mahomes as a favorite three

1243
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 1: or more thirty ninety three against the spread, Like you

1244
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:29,200
Speaker 1: just got to fade Mahomes as a favorite of this

1245
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 1: number in games that are constantly close, when he is

1246
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: consistently losing any of his weapons.

1247
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and when I went to sportsbook yesterday, the Bills

1248
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 3: were still a dog at that point, and the bookmaker said,

1249
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 3: this is basically the number one teaser back to back

1250
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 3: weeks is Bills in chief So last week it was.

1251
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 2: A number one teaser.

1252
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 3: Obviously didn't get there with the Bills getting blown out.

1253
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 3: The public went right back to it. They went all

1254
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:55,840
Speaker 3: over this Chiefs team and their teasers right with the

1255
01:03:55,880 --> 01:03:58,800
Speaker 3: Bills when the Bills were a dog. So I'm right

1256
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 3: there with you this this feel it was a game

1257
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 3: where me and you play the Saints, we play them

1258
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 3: on the money line, and you know, we not that

1259
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:09,840
Speaker 3: we need a little bit of luck here, but we've

1260
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 3: seen it, right, We've seen with this this Chiefs team

1261
01:04:13,080 --> 01:04:15,400
Speaker 3: what they lack and skill they get with luck at

1262
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:17,440
Speaker 3: the end of these games. And it's like, yeah, okay,

1263
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:19,440
Speaker 3: can we just have the refs on our side in

1264
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 3: this game, get the calls to go our way? And

1265
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 3: really can we they take away Xavier Worthy in the

1266
01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 3: deep shot, like can they make Mahomes drive the entire field?

1267
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:30,160
Speaker 3: Because that seems like that's his issue right now, right

1268
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 3: it's putting together these long, sustainable drives because he just

1269
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 3: can't depend on Travis Kelce like he used to. Right,

1270
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 3: He always had that kind of get out of jail

1271
01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 3: free car with Travis Kelser. It's like, oh, back against

1272
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 3: the wall, third and six. I know I can dial

1273
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 3: up to play here that Travis Kelce will get open

1274
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 3: through impropervisation or whatever. It's just it's just a different

1275
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 3: team this year. I mean you, we're gonna keep going

1276
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,240
Speaker 3: back to the well as long as it spreads above three.

1277
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 2: We talk well at the time like this is when

1278
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:57,160
Speaker 2: we'd like to go after Mahomes.

1279
01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 3: So I love this pick, Chad, hoping it gets a

1280
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 3: six for us, just because so much public money is

1281
01:05:03,200 --> 01:05:06,720
Speaker 3: gonna keep coming in on this team. But I assume

1282
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 3: the professionals are coming on the Saints team just like

1283
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 3: we are, and bet the stumber down so happy to

1284
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 3: grab it while you cant of five and a half.

1285
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 1: All right, So the games that we really like so

1286
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:20,760
Speaker 1: far that we have found agreement on New Orleans as

1287
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 1: my exec decision Cincinnati, Simon says, we're still leaning in

1288
01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 1: Las Vegas plus two and a half, but we probably

1289
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 1: want to get some sharp calls on that. We will

1290
01:05:33,240 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 1: look forward to hearing what people have to say about

1291
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:39,440
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Niners. And clearly you've got something

1292
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:41,200
Speaker 1: you want to say about the Rams A plus three

1293
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:41,600
Speaker 1: and a half.

1294
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:43,400
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1295
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