WEBVTT - NFL Week 2 Best Bets (Ep. 104)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at

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<v Speaker 1>Dan Harris. Eighty Week two is here. It is time

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about our best bets for the week. And

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<v Speaker 1>here with me to do that is my good friend

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<v Speaker 1>Rich Ryan, co host of The grid Iron Gamble podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>Find him on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich It's

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<v Speaker 1>been a while since we've talked. How are you.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm great. I'm in the throes of new fatherhood. I

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<v Speaker 2>have a ten week old. As we discussed pre record,

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<v Speaker 2>That's why I've got the hat on. During quarantine, it

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<v Speaker 2>was acceptable to walk around with insanely long hair, but

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<v Speaker 2>now quote unquote post pandemic, it's not so hiding the hair.

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<v Speaker 2>But happy to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you look great, and obviously I'm a big

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<v Speaker 1>fan of the Mets. Unfortunately we are both Jets fans.

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<v Speaker 1>It is a terrible plight that we have to bear.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet that was the one bet that I nailed

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<v Speaker 1>last week, was the Jets plus five point five against

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<v Speaker 1>the Panthers. There it is all that along. Okay, So

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<v Speaker 1>you guys know how this works. We each are going

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<v Speaker 1>to give our three best bets they could be totals,

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<v Speaker 1>they could be spreads. Whatever you want to do. Then

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<v Speaker 1>we will quickly run through all the rest of just

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<v Speaker 1>the spreads just to talk about whether we have a

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<v Speaker 1>lean or not. But before we do it, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>to some housekeeping items, including a new offer from our sponsor,

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<v Speaker 1>comes from. But the code is Juice one hundred. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>pick a side, pick a money line, pick a total,

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't really matter. If either team scores a touchdown, regardless

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<v Speaker 1>of it, the team you bet on wins the game,

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<v Speaker 1>let me remind you of our giveaway. It's assigned to

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<v Speaker 1>a tongue of I loaded jersey entry is very simple.

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<v Speaker 1>Leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast box,

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<v Speaker 1>and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review.

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<v Speaker 1>If you are a subscriber to our YouTube channel where

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<v Speaker 1>you can watch this podcast. If you want to see

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<v Speaker 1>Rich's glorious hair, then it's at YouTube dot com slash

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<v Speaker 1>betting Pros. Again, if you are a subscriber to that,

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<v Speaker 1>it counts as three additional entries, And again we do

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<v Speaker 1>a Sunday Morning Lives stream over there eleven to twelve.

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<v Speaker 1>We give out some props, we give out some of

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<v Speaker 1>our best bets at well on Sunday. All right, how

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<v Speaker 1>do you feel rich? Are you confident in your picks? Today?

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<v Speaker 2>Kind of week? Just tough. We've got a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>really good teams on the road as short favorites. We've

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<v Speaker 2>got some elite teams at home as massive favorites. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think I've done a decent job of minings from

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<v Speaker 2>some overreactions in week one and hopefully out some winners.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's always a big one, right, is the

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<v Speaker 1>week one overreaction, avoid the part in week two. That's

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<v Speaker 1>generally my philosophy, which we'll get to in one second.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll start with Rich, we should recap last week, though

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't a great week. Although our favorite bet with

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<v Speaker 1>Sean Greenho was our guest favorite bet was the Seahawks

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<v Speaker 1>laying two and a half to the Colts. That was

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<v Speaker 1>Sean's official play. I allowed him to take it because

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<v Speaker 1>he wanted it. That was us. He missed on his

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<v Speaker 1>other one, the Titans minus three, which narrowly missed by

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and fourteen points, and the Pats minus three

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<v Speaker 1>also missed. There. My official bets after Shawn took Seattle

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<v Speaker 1>was the Deets getting five and a half. You needed

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<v Speaker 1>that half a point and again when it closed, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was four and a half, but at five

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. It did hit the Titans Cardinals over

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<v Speaker 1>fifty two and a half, which still hurts my soul

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<v Speaker 1>because they were basically midway through the third quarter they

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<v Speaker 1>were at fifty one. I kind of counted that prematurely

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<v Speaker 1>in the win column. And then the Eagles Falcons over

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<v Speaker 1>forty and a half, which just missed on. So there

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<v Speaker 1>you go. Gotta do better this week, Rich, you get

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<v Speaker 1>to start us off. Give it to me your top

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<v Speaker 1>bet of the week.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go back to the Queen City of Carolina

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<v Speaker 2>where you faded the Carolina Panther. There's last week. Good

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<v Speaker 2>job getting the best of the number there because, like

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<v Speaker 2>you said, you covered by the skin of your teeth.

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<v Speaker 2>But a win is a win is a win is

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<v Speaker 2>a win. And talking about overreactions, the best team last

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<v Speaker 2>week in a national spotlight where the New Orleans Saints

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<v Speaker 2>they come out and they absolutely mollywop the Green Bay Packers.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a Sean Payton masterclass. He is a tremendous coach.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I myself coming to the season, I was

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<v Speaker 2>very much questioning New Orleans. I think the remnants of

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<v Speaker 2>Hurricane and Ida kind of pushed me over the edge,

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that they were going to be displaced for

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<v Speaker 2>the first quarter of the season. But maybe I just

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<v Speaker 2>failed to recognize just how much of a tremendous coach

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<v Speaker 2>Sean Payton was putting together such a good team these

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<v Speaker 2>last couple of years with very much a maybe net

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<v Speaker 2>negative at quarterback and Drew Brees, somebody who couldn't push

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<v Speaker 2>the ball downfield. And the first time he gets an

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity to get Jameis Winston under center, I mean he

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<v Speaker 2>lets loose. He sinks you in with play action, gets

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<v Speaker 2>the run game going and then takes deep shots and

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<v Speaker 2>Jamis did that quite well. But I think this line

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<v Speaker 2>is just a little bit too rich for a Saints

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<v Speaker 2>team that let's face it, they do want to play

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit more conservative, both on offense and I

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<v Speaker 2>mean being a good defense. I think they're going to

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<v Speaker 2>be in some more rock fights than people anticipate. And

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<v Speaker 2>the Panthers looked fine last week. Most importantly, they looked

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<v Speaker 2>really good on defense. And I know what you're saying,

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<v Speaker 2>pump the brakes. It's the New York Jets. It's a

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<v Speaker 2>dilapidated offensive line, it's a rookie quarterback. But when you

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<v Speaker 2>can pressure with guys like Brian Burns and you can

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<v Speaker 2>cover in the back, you can have some success in

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<v Speaker 2>this league. On top of that, we're seeing a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of injuries right now for the Saints. Kwan, Alexander, Marcus Davenport,

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<v Speaker 2>Marshawn Lattimore all DNPS on Wednesday. Marshaon Latimore carries a

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<v Speaker 2>doubtful status and we know that about single digit percentage

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<v Speaker 2>players that carry that status end up making it to Sunday.

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<v Speaker 2>On top of that, their IR situation is pretty bad.

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<v Speaker 2>Ken Crawley on the iar is one of the reasons

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<v Speaker 2>why they traded for Bradley Roby last week. No tray

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<v Speaker 2>Quan Smith, of course, no Michael Thomas. So very limited

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<v Speaker 2>on offense, banged up on defense. So I think this

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<v Speaker 2>is gonna be quite a low scoring game. And I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Saints can the Panthers can keep it competitive

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<v Speaker 2>with their receiver corps. I mean, Bradley Roby and Paulson

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<v Speaker 2>Adivo are gonna be in tough situations against three really

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<v Speaker 2>good receivers in Dj Moore, Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall.

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<v Speaker 2>So and Donald, you know, I'm still a Truther eight yards?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you? Are you? Are you like? Are you high

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<v Speaker 1>on him? Long term?

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<v Speaker 2>I think Donald is at minimum a league average quarterback

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<v Speaker 2>and he needs to be rained in. He needed to

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<v Speaker 2>escape Adam Gase.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think the Panthers will be just fine. I

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<v Speaker 2>think this is gonna be a close contested game. I

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<v Speaker 2>could see the Panthers winning outright. I don't think that

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<v Speaker 2>would be too insane. So yeah, give me the Panthers

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<v Speaker 2>plus three and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>If only there were any history of a quarterback looking

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<v Speaker 1>like probably not even fit for the NFL under Adam

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<v Speaker 1>Gase and then escaping and then becoming one of the

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<v Speaker 1>best quarterbacks. We may talk about that. QUI back a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit later. I'm not ready to declare Sam Donald

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<v Speaker 1>below average or above average or average. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what Sam Darnold is yet, because again I agree with you,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's completely unfair to judge him based on

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<v Speaker 1>what happened in New York. I will say to add

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<v Speaker 1>to your point in this game, and I'll get to

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<v Speaker 1>my thoughts very quickly. Is the Saints are also dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with COVID among their coaches, like right, like a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of their coach not Peyton obviously, but a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>their coaching staff is kind of just working on their

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<v Speaker 1>couches right now, doing from home, don't you know, discount

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<v Speaker 1>that impact as well as you get ready for the

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<v Speaker 1>game plan. So there are a lot of signs here.

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<v Speaker 1>And again you know, it's not the quintessential by Loo

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<v Speaker 1>because the Panthers one against the Jets, you know, so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not like your people are down on them or

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<v Speaker 1>anything like that. But you are selling high on the Saints,

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<v Speaker 1>which is what you do in week two when people overreact,

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<v Speaker 1>and for me, Saints played great, but you're absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 1>The number of injuries on defense is really remarkable, and

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<v Speaker 1>the one thing the Panthers can do. They have a

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<v Speaker 1>good offensive system, of course, and they have the three

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<v Speaker 1>wide receivers who you mentioned again. They have DJ Moore,

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<v Speaker 1>they have Robbie Anderson. I liked what I saw of

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<v Speaker 1>Terrest Marshall, and of course they have Christian McCaffrey, probably

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<v Speaker 1>the best, you know, just non quarterback offense player in

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<v Speaker 1>the game right now. So I don't hate it. I

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<v Speaker 1>probably won't bet it just because it scares me, but

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that last week was also sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a weird combination of factors where I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it was very, very hot, and I think the Packers

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<v Speaker 1>probably weren't necessarily prepared for it. They just looked gas

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<v Speaker 1>and out of sort. So I think it was as

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<v Speaker 1>much against the Packers as it was the Saints. So

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<v Speaker 1>I don't hate it. If I had to take a side,

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<v Speaker 1>I would take the Panthers. But I am a little scared.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's funny considering what my number one best bet

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<v Speaker 1>in which is something that you I think we should

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<v Speaker 1>be honest before I told everybody last week Sean and

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<v Speaker 1>I did not exchange picks before. And he came out

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<v Speaker 1>of the gate with seattles or whatever and you and

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<v Speaker 1>I said, you want to exchange picks? And I said, sure, whatever,

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<v Speaker 1>send him over and you hadn't yet this morning, and

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<v Speaker 1>I said, all right, well, these are my three picks.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll get off one if you want. And my first

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<v Speaker 1>pick was the Vikings getting three and a half from

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<v Speaker 1>the Cardinals. And do you remember what you wrote back

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<v Speaker 1>to me after I sent.

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<v Speaker 2>You that, Thank the heavens, Thank the heavens that I

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<v Speaker 2>don't have to tout this game and somebody else has

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<v Speaker 2>to because I wanted to trust me. But I will

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<v Speaker 2>run tail between my legs and I will give the

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<v Speaker 2>floor to you. Mister Ayres.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the quintessential game that you look at and

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<v Speaker 1>you say, I have to take this game. But I

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<v Speaker 1>have no interest in taking this game. Like that is

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<v Speaker 1>what this is like. It feels grotesque to even do it.

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<v Speaker 1>But when I was looking at it, I was like,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna give me more than a hook. I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to take it right now. And again, this is a theme,

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<v Speaker 1>and it looks like you're on the same theme. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think if you look historically it bears out, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's fruitful that when you fade, generally a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the big things that you saw. And the Jaguars beat

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<v Speaker 1>the Colts last year in Week.

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<v Speaker 2>One, right never they ever ever won a game ever again.

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<v Speaker 1>And may never again as well. But yeah, that although

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<v Speaker 1>maybe we don't know this week, but regardless, bottom line

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<v Speaker 1>is this, Like the Viking did look bad in this

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<v Speaker 1>game against the Bengals, they still could have won. Obviously.

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<v Speaker 1>The Cardinals looked like absolute world beaters in this game.

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<v Speaker 1>But again, I think it's a little bit of an

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<v Speaker 1>overreaction and spoiler. Like we'll talk about the Titans in

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit because that's another one of my picks.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think a lot of what we saw with

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<v Speaker 1>that Cardinals Titans game is on the Titans, not the Cardinals.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, look, the Cardinals are a very good offensive system.

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<v Speaker 1>Deonder Hopkins is amazing, Climber is incredible, I like Rondell

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<v Speaker 1>Moore what We're going to see a ton of good

0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.240
<v Speaker 1>things from them. But I don't think that defense is

0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:30.600
<v Speaker 1>anything close to what it showed. I think that the

0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.960
<v Speaker 1>Titans really and I mentioned this before earlier this week,

0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.600
<v Speaker 1>actually is that I think that really the Titans, whether

0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.320
<v Speaker 1>it was the COVID situation that prevented them from practicing

0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:42.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot, or whether it was just the general injury concerns,

0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.000
<v Speaker 1>they just weren't ready for that game and they didn't

0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.800
<v Speaker 1>play well, and I expect them to correct it right now.

0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.000
<v Speaker 1>So I don't think you're going to see as good

0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:51.439
<v Speaker 1>as Chandler Jones is. I don't think you're going to

0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:53.280
<v Speaker 1>see the team have you know, six sacs or whatever

0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.600
<v Speaker 1>they had. Again, I think the defense is going to

0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.240
<v Speaker 1>allow points against the Vikings team, by the way, who

0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.679
<v Speaker 1>offense can very easy put up points, whether it's through

0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.320
<v Speaker 1>Dalvin Cook, whether it's through Adam Fieln, who looked like

0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:05.920
<v Speaker 1>he had sort of found the fountain of youth. And

0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:10.840
<v Speaker 1>that's not even talking about Justin Jefferson, pardon me. And

0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:13.600
<v Speaker 1>again kJ Osborne also sort of showed up suddenly. So

0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.480
<v Speaker 1>I think they're going to be able to put up points.

0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.080
<v Speaker 1>If you look historically, it's how the Vikings sort of react.

0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:22.080
<v Speaker 1>They're usually played pretty well after a loss to under

0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Mike Zimmer and really, you know, they had to lose

0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:26.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of new starters, you know, in their first game.

0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:28.480
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if that corrects itself immediately in the

0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:30.360
<v Speaker 1>second game, but they had a ton of penalties in

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.959
<v Speaker 1>that game. I expect them to probably do better. And

0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.199
<v Speaker 1>again their defense. I like their secondar I mean, Patrick

0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.480
<v Speaker 1>Peterson maybe a little intel on what they're going to

0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.200
<v Speaker 1>see here from Arizona. So this is just a game

0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.600
<v Speaker 1>man that this screams to me something of the public

0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.440
<v Speaker 1>is going to absolutely hit the Cardinals in this game.

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 1>They're going to love the Cardinals. They're going to fade

0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.640
<v Speaker 1>the Vikings, and I just think that the Vikings are

0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.240
<v Speaker 1>pretty obviously like the right side to be on. It

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:55.880
<v Speaker 1>just makes me want to bombit a little bit in

0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:56.439
<v Speaker 1>my mouth to have.

0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:58.320
<v Speaker 2>To make this pick. I mean, you can see it

0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.160
<v Speaker 2>on the betting Pro's matchup page. Right eighty three percent

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:02.920
<v Speaker 2>of people are selecting.

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.440
<v Speaker 1>You looking at the matchups page. That's my guy.

0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.440
<v Speaker 2>I know, I'm a chameleon. I know where I'm at.

0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:13.080
<v Speaker 2>We're looking at a two point look ahead that went

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.800
<v Speaker 2>to and through the key number of three, so we're

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.080
<v Speaker 2>getting value there. It opened at four and a half,

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.679
<v Speaker 2>it's already come down, so that means influential money is

0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:25.440
<v Speaker 2>coming in on the Vikings. This is a classic overreaction spot.

0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:29.280
<v Speaker 2>As you noted, Mike Zimmer I think has the coaching advantage.

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 2>Kirk Cousins might be a better quarterback. I've never been

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.520
<v Speaker 2>really a Kyler Murray guy. I think he has a

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.480
<v Speaker 2>lot of limitations when it comes to decision making. He

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:41.840
<v Speaker 2>threw a bone hited interception against Tennessee. I don't know

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 2>if that's going to correct itself, and against a Vikings

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.199
<v Speaker 2>defense that tends to be very aggressive. Mike Zimmer is

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 2>very gap competent, meaning that he designs blitzes to take

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 2>away all to attack all of your weaknesses. And if

0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:57.960
<v Speaker 2>Kyler is pressure in his face, I don't know if

0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.839
<v Speaker 2>he's always going to make the best decision given what's

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 2>in front of him. So the thing that does put

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.280
<v Speaker 2>the fear of God to me is the reports that

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:07.960
<v Speaker 2>Kyler was injured towards the end of last year. So

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.200
<v Speaker 2>maybe some of my negative outlook on the kid is

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:13.480
<v Speaker 2>the fact that he was actually being a tough SOB

0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 2>and playing through a shoulder injury. On top of that,

0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:22.400
<v Speaker 2>speaking of COVID, there's just a dark cloud over Minnesota

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 2>and the kind of tug of war that they're dealing

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:29.199
<v Speaker 2>with in their locker room and the division that comes

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.679
<v Speaker 2>through COVID when their leader won't get vaccinated, and it's

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 2>putting it's putting a lot of pressure on the organization.

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.320
<v Speaker 2>When the coach wants people to get vaccinated, he's threatening

0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.720
<v Speaker 2>the fire coaches that won't get vaccinated and the leader

0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 2>of the team, the quarterback, won't take the vack. So

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.360
<v Speaker 2>there's just this cloud that's hanging over Minnesota that has

0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.240
<v Speaker 2>me a little bit worried. But you're right, this is

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:55.439
<v Speaker 2>a classic a one week one overreaction line. Moved an

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 2>insane amount from the look Ahead, and I think you

0:13:58.000 --> 0:13:59.360
<v Speaker 2>just have to blindly click the dog.

0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 1>In this spot. It's good. It's a good point on

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.280
<v Speaker 1>the look at You're right, that was it's a big

0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>move here. And again everybody's still going to be on

0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the Cardinals in my guards. Yeah, the books are going

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.840
<v Speaker 1>to be completely happy about that, and you know that

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 1>that's what they want with the way they see it,

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 1>with your point re cousins and and the vaccine. I

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 1>really do think that that is a reason to fade

0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:21.600
<v Speaker 1>them long term on the season. I really do think,

0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 1>because I think just given the protocols, forget about anything else.

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>The protocols that the NFL has put in means that

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.520
<v Speaker 1>I think it's highly likely that Cousins is gonna miss

0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 1>at least a game this season just because he'll be

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>a close contact or something and there'll be something that

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:36.160
<v Speaker 1>he won't be able to get out of. So I

0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.280
<v Speaker 1>think long term, I am worried about the vikings for

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 1>one game. In the bounce back spot, I'm holding my nose.

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.520
<v Speaker 1>I want to do it. Let's go to pick number two.

0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>What do you got?

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 2>I was gonna say, let's keep holding our nose though,

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, more, All right, let's go. We are selecting

0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 2>the Jacksonville Jaguars plus six at home against the Denver Broncos.

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 2>I'm not that much of a coward. I said it

0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 2>was a coward for not clicking the vikings, But this

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 2>is me grabbing my shield and being a hero. Thirty

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 2>percent of folks on betting pros are selecting this team.

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.920
<v Speaker 2>Let's just use some math. Real quick. Homefield advantage is

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 2>about one point nine right now, that's what we're working with.

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 2>So if this game was in Denver, the Broncos would

0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 2>be minus ten. So what this is saying is that

0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 2>the gap between the Broncos and the Jaguars is only

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 2>one point fewer than the gap between the Packers and

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.920
<v Speaker 2>the Lions, Packers sitting at minus eleven. That doesn't really

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.120
<v Speaker 2>work for me. The Packers are a team with Super

0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 2>Bowl aspirations, one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen,

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.120
<v Speaker 2>coming home after a loss playing against the Lions team

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 2>that I know they backdoored if you got the number late,

0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:43.880
<v Speaker 2>but they were absolutely destroyed by the San Francisco forty

0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 2>nine ers. Back to back East Coast trips for Denver

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 2>eighty six degrees and rainy is projecting to be fifty

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 2>six percent chance of precipitation. So we're talking about an

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 2>ugly game. And just like the team that I just mentioned,

0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:01.280
<v Speaker 2>the Saints with injuries, the Broncos placed run Darby on IR,

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.120
<v Speaker 2>a big free agent signing for them. Jerry Judy's on

0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:09.880
<v Speaker 2>IR guard Graham Glasgow, experienced heart palpitations during the game,

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 2>went to the hospital after the Giants game didn't travel back.

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 2>With Denver covering six on the road in pro football

0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 2>means you're going to go out, get a lead and

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 2>extend the lead, and I just don't trust Teddy Bridgewater

0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 2>to do that. I know it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I

0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.000
<v Speaker 2>know this is something that people out there aren't going

0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 2>to run to the window to bet. I know Vic

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:35.320
<v Speaker 2>Fangio against a rookie quarterback is terrifying, but three point

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.880
<v Speaker 2>look ahead blasts all the way to six. Just like

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 2>what you said about the Minnesota Vikings, I think you

0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 2>just have to hold your nose, click the dog, and

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 2>just don't watch. When red zone shows this game, change

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 2>it to QVC or something. Just don't watch a single

0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 2>snap in this game.

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, QVC, it's going to be better than watching this game,

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>is probably correct. Ah. So look, this sort of goes

0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to everything that we're saying. I think probably the Jaguars

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.040
<v Speaker 1>strike me as the sharp side. I can't do it, though,

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 1>only because I can't. No, I can't. I mean you're

0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>I think you're right, just because holy cow, man, like,

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.159
<v Speaker 1>there are disasters in the NFL, and you and I,

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.280
<v Speaker 1>obviously being fans of the Jets, are quite familiar with

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 1>how that works. But I don't know if I've ever

0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.360
<v Speaker 1>seen a coach like urban Meyer come in here and

0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:25.879
<v Speaker 1>screw everything up so quickly and just make things worse

0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.560
<v Speaker 1>every second of the day. This is bizarro world. I

0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 1>think on paper, you're right, this spread is too much

0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.119
<v Speaker 1>and the sharp side is the Jaguars, but it really isn't.

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>And maybe that's narrative, like maybe that's not something that

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 1>we should consider as better, but it is something I

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.119
<v Speaker 1>have to consider as better. And I don't even know

0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>what he was doing that, Like, I don't know how

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 1>you come out and you say against the Texans, you go,

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm just gonna let Trevor Lawrence throw all day right

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 1>from the start, and you're gonna say, I really want

0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:59.000
<v Speaker 1>Carlos Hide to back more than jad Johnson.

0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 2>No, James comes in. They have a free running back, right,

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.160
<v Speaker 2>someone that they're not paying anything to. They use first

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 2>round draft equity on Travis Aten, so you feel like

0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.119
<v Speaker 2>they're forced into using James Robinson. Okay, they tried to

0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 2>make mistake, the mistake was taken away from him, and

0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 2>he just starts plunging with Carlos It's.

0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.520
<v Speaker 1>So nuts, it's nuts, And look, Carlos side's very capable backup.

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:23.360
<v Speaker 1>James Robinson did nothing last year to suggest that without

0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:26.640
<v Speaker 1>ETN he needs to be benched or anything. Just maddening. Man.

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.359
<v Speaker 1>So for me, it's just like I could see the

0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>back door cover. I don't. I don't see a way

0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:34.880
<v Speaker 1>that the Jaguars are gonna win this game. They could, obviously,

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:39.040
<v Speaker 1>you never know. It's we're avoiding overreactions. This is not

0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:40.880
<v Speaker 1>an O reaction against the Broncos, Like, I don't care

0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:42.439
<v Speaker 1>really what they did against the Giants. I thought they

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.080
<v Speaker 1>looked fine, basically what I expected. But it's something where

0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.439
<v Speaker 1>I can't get mentally over the point of just being like,

0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 1>I can't voluntarily put money down on the Jaguarts right now,

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 1>which is fair. A team that I can voluntarily put

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:58.000
<v Speaker 1>money down on is the Titans. We're getting five and

0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 1>a half from the Seahawks. They're in Seattle. That's never

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.280
<v Speaker 1>good time. I'm just looking up exactly. So it's it's

0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>about fifty to fifty right now. Fifty two percent of

0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.080
<v Speaker 1>our experts are taking the Seahawks, forty eight percent taking

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.200
<v Speaker 1>the Titans. So let's continue our trend rich of making

0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 1>plays that do not make us feel warm and fuzzy

0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:19.920
<v Speaker 1>in this one. We know Seattle's a very difficult place

0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to play, and they look great with their new offensive

0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 1>scheme last week, and the Titans looked like the worst

0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 1>you know team in football. But again this is me really?

0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 1>I am really, and maybe I'm overreacting in sort of

0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:37.040
<v Speaker 1>the positive way. I'm basically throwing out everything that we

0:19:37.119 --> 0:19:39.359
<v Speaker 1>saw from the Titans last week. I think it was

0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:43.360
<v Speaker 1>just a we have not practiced whatsoever. I mean, put

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:47.520
<v Speaker 1>aside everything else. Tannel and Julio Jones literally never practiced,

0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:48.879
<v Speaker 1>like you know, I don't know how many practices I

0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 1>actually had together, but the whole team just was not

0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:55.400
<v Speaker 1>ready to play, and that could linger, right. I mean, again,

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.080
<v Speaker 1>you need to catch up. But I also have an

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:00.560
<v Speaker 1>incredible amount of respect for Mike Rabel as a coach.

0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:02.639
<v Speaker 1>I think he's one of the better coaches in the NFL.

0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:04.320
<v Speaker 1>I think he is going to get this team ready

0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:07.200
<v Speaker 1>to play. That you know, Taylor Lwan was obviously terrible.

0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:08.880
<v Speaker 1>I expect him to play better. I think the line

0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:10.600
<v Speaker 1>is going to play better. I think both receivers will

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:11.960
<v Speaker 1>get more involved. I think you're going to see a

0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.240
<v Speaker 1>better game from Dereck Henry. And again, Seattle does not

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.760
<v Speaker 1>have the pass rush, right, they don't have a Chandler

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:18.879
<v Speaker 1>Jones on their team. Again, they're not going to basically

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:22.600
<v Speaker 1>be harassing Ryan Tannell. So I think offensively, I think

0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:24.840
<v Speaker 1>the Titans are going to look much much better than

0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:28.200
<v Speaker 1>we saw last week. And again, Seattle was good last week.

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:30.680
<v Speaker 1>They won that game handily. We figured that they would,

0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:34.240
<v Speaker 1>but that wasn't that far away from being like a

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>four point game, Like the Colts could have easily scored

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 1>a touchdown gotten the two point conversion. It's a four

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 1>point win, I mean, even in a game that they

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty much dominated. So it's something where I do I

0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 1>expect the Seahawks to win. I do, but look, we

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 1>know how the Seahawks have historically played. I mean, look

0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:50.919
<v Speaker 1>at last year.

0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:53.160
<v Speaker 2>They were twelve never a normal game.

0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:55.960
<v Speaker 1>We know that there's every possibility that they will just

0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 1>start running the ball. But that but let's say they

0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:02.440
<v Speaker 1>stick with Shane waldron'system. Four of their twelve wins last year,

0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:05.359
<v Speaker 1>only four were by more than one score. Like, if

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.679
<v Speaker 1>you're going they like to play other games, that's just

0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.080
<v Speaker 1>what they do. And I think that this one's gonna

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 1>be a close game. Again, if I had to bet,

0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:13.879
<v Speaker 1>it'd be the Seahawks winning by a field goal in

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 1>this game. So I will take the five and a half.

0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:19.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I tend to lean with you. I'm a little

0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 2>concerned with the Titans defense. But the point you bring

0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:24.920
<v Speaker 2>up last week is very indicative of the Seahawks. It

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:26.960
<v Speaker 2>was very much a Shane Waldron first half and a

0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:29.960
<v Speaker 2>Pete Carroll second half. Let's salt the lead away, let's

0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 2>set the game away, hang on to a lead, get home,

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:35.840
<v Speaker 2>get prepped for next week when a lot of other

0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:39.040
<v Speaker 2>teams in this league are extending leads and putting teams

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:42.280
<v Speaker 2>away and again, to cover five, five and a half

0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:45.000
<v Speaker 2>in the NFL, you need to be extending leads and

0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:48.200
<v Speaker 2>not holding on to the rock and salting games away.

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:50.720
<v Speaker 2>So the biggest problem with the Seahawks last year was

0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:52.920
<v Speaker 2>the fact that when teams started showing them that too deep,

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:55.400
<v Speaker 2>they had no idea what to do. And Shane Waldron

0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 2>did a great job of attacking the Colts last week

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.919
<v Speaker 2>with ebra Flus as a classic two deep team, and

0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:05.280
<v Speaker 2>they absolutely shredded them deep. Will that carry over into

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:07.800
<v Speaker 2>next week? I think it's possible. I think that the

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 2>whole offseason the Hawks were a team that were getting

0:22:11.000 --> 0:22:14.400
<v Speaker 2>absolutely no love when all they do every single year

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:17.160
<v Speaker 2>is go out and get double digit wins. Russell Wilson

0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:21.920
<v Speaker 2>is perennially a top five quarterback. Lockett and dk metcalf

0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:25.480
<v Speaker 2>are to one of the best receiver cors in the league.

0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:29.400
<v Speaker 2>And what Pete's done his whole tenure and in Seattle

0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.920
<v Speaker 2>is take mid round players with zero pedigree and put

0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 2>together a pretty good defense. So I like the spot.

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:39.879
<v Speaker 2>It worries me a little bit when I start digging

0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:43.359
<v Speaker 2>into the actual teams, because I'm a little bit down

0:22:43.680 --> 0:22:45.960
<v Speaker 2>on the Titans. But You're absolutely right. One of the

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:47.440
<v Speaker 2>things you want to be doing in the NFL is

0:22:47.480 --> 0:22:49.480
<v Speaker 2>betting on the team that looked the worst last week,

0:22:50.000 --> 0:22:52.680
<v Speaker 2>and the Tennessee Titans were certainly one of those things.

0:22:52.720 --> 0:22:55.000
<v Speaker 2>Just regrets to the mean, these teams are just too talented.

0:22:56.720 --> 0:22:58.639
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, no, no, I was just wrapping up.

0:22:58.840 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think, and again, Seattle generally has looked, you know,

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 1>good early on here, and I get like last year

0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 1>and I get like their offense looked really good. I

0:23:08.440 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 1>just this is a bounce back spot for the Titans. Man, Like,

0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:14.199
<v Speaker 1>I cannot imagine that they come out as nearly as

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:16.720
<v Speaker 1>flas they did. They were embarrassed by that game, like

0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:19.520
<v Speaker 1>for sure, like they need to come here and show something,

0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:21.160
<v Speaker 1>and I just I kind of trust that they will.

0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, this is what it is. This is this

0:23:23.280 --> 0:23:25.320
<v Speaker 1>is a hold your nose week, man, like we're talking

0:23:25.320 --> 0:23:27.200
<v Speaker 1>about it. So do you have a hold your nose

0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:29.240
<v Speaker 1>third pick here for your third best bat?

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:31.199
<v Speaker 2>Not really. I know a lot of people like to

0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:34.040
<v Speaker 2>bet the over in some of these games, and with

0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:37.480
<v Speaker 2>the record being broken last week with fourth down attempts,

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:42.560
<v Speaker 2>maybe this season will be in overseason. But I'm circling

0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 2>the under forty seven and a half in this Texans

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:48.720
<v Speaker 2>Browns game on Sunday. It's one of those where if

0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:50.440
<v Speaker 2>you agree with me, you're gonna want to go out

0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 2>there and get it now because forty seven is a

0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:55.280
<v Speaker 2>key number and the Cleveland Browns have a couple of

0:23:55.359 --> 0:23:58.760
<v Speaker 2>injuries that the Thursday practice report, which we haven't seen yet,

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:03.560
<v Speaker 2>could dictate a line move in this spot. Three starting

0:24:03.600 --> 0:24:07.080
<v Speaker 2>offensive linemen on the Browns did not practice yesterday. Jedrick

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:10.600
<v Speaker 2>Willis was carted off on Sunday against the Chiefs that

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 2>left tackle and his replacement in that game also got hurt.

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.600
<v Speaker 2>So there's a chance that the JC Treader and Jack

0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:21.160
<v Speaker 2>Conklin dnps on Wednesday were just veterans rest Those things

0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:24.080
<v Speaker 2>tend to happen. But we'll get more information here on Thursday,

0:24:24.200 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 2>and if they are dnps on Thursday, I could certainly

0:24:26.800 --> 0:24:30.520
<v Speaker 2>see this line starting to come down, because in order

0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 2>for the Browns to cover a number as big as this,

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:34.720
<v Speaker 2>and in order for them to get to the over,

0:24:34.800 --> 0:24:36.480
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be the Browns that are scoring in

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 2>this game and putting points on the board. And with

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 2>a broken offensive line, a team that does want to

0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:43.680
<v Speaker 2>run the ball, that has invested as on at the

0:24:43.720 --> 0:24:46.000
<v Speaker 2>running back position is going to be a little bit

0:24:46.040 --> 0:24:48.879
<v Speaker 2>hamstrung to do so. But if you wait for the news,

0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:51.399
<v Speaker 2>then the line's going to start moving. So it's one

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 2>of those where you almost have to be a little

0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:57.160
<v Speaker 2>bit aggressive and get to it before the market starts changing.

0:24:57.480 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 2>The Texans last week, playing at at home against the Jaguars,

0:25:02.320 --> 0:25:06.000
<v Speaker 2>allowed the fifth highest pressure rate in the entire league.

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:10.080
<v Speaker 2>The Jaguars do not have a stout defensive line what

0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:12.960
<v Speaker 2>and they didn't send a ton of pressure. I mean,

0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 2>their blitz rate was thirty two point four, so top third,

0:25:16.040 --> 0:25:19.560
<v Speaker 2>but nothing like the you know, the fifty percent that

0:25:19.600 --> 0:25:24.040
<v Speaker 2>we saw from the Dolphins and fifty percent we traditionally

0:25:24.080 --> 0:25:25.800
<v Speaker 2>see from the Ravens that we saw a ton of

0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:28.639
<v Speaker 2>on Monday night against the Raiders there. Now they travel

0:25:28.800 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 2>on the road, they have to block Miles Garrett and

0:25:31.920 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 2>Jadeveon Clowney and tack McKinley and Malik Jackson. That's not

0:25:36.040 --> 0:25:38.520
<v Speaker 2>gonna be an easy assignment. So I think the Texans

0:25:38.560 --> 0:25:40.719
<v Speaker 2>are going to strugle to score. And if the Browns

0:25:40.720 --> 0:25:43.600
<v Speaker 2>have these offensive line issues and can't get their offense

0:25:43.640 --> 0:25:45.520
<v Speaker 2>going as well, I think we'll see a little bit

0:25:45.520 --> 0:25:47.360
<v Speaker 2>of a controlled rock fight. I think the Browns will

0:25:47.440 --> 0:25:51.760
<v Speaker 2>be just fine, But I think that the under is

0:25:51.840 --> 0:25:55.400
<v Speaker 2>definitely in play, and if you're super brave, I think

0:25:55.440 --> 0:25:57.720
<v Speaker 2>taking the points with Houston might be in play as well.

0:25:57.920 --> 0:25:59.960
<v Speaker 1>This is interesting, Okay, So if that, what if the

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:02.920
<v Speaker 1>practice reports are positive, I mean, Wills isn't gonna play.

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:04.399
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we can assume that. But what

0:26:04.400 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 1>if the practice reports are positive on the offensive line?

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:08.280
<v Speaker 1>And are you still good with it? I mean, I

0:26:08.320 --> 0:26:09.840
<v Speaker 1>assume in forty seven and a half, you just think

0:26:09.880 --> 0:26:13.240
<v Speaker 1>that it might drop if it's bad, right, Yeah.

0:26:13.160 --> 0:26:15.399
<v Speaker 2>If it's bad. I think this line gets to the

0:26:15.480 --> 0:26:19.480
<v Speaker 2>key number and Nobe even gets a little bit down

0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 2>from that, but I don't think it'll ever touch the

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:25.720
<v Speaker 2>other key of forty four. I mean, that's a precipitous drop, right,

0:26:25.920 --> 0:26:27.760
<v Speaker 2>but I could certainly see it coming off this forty

0:26:27.800 --> 0:26:31.000
<v Speaker 2>seven and a half. I think I'm still comfortable with it.

0:26:31.000 --> 0:26:33.800
<v Speaker 2>It's I think it's fifty to fifty that Tretder and conkline.

0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 2>We're just getting veterans rest. But the fact that the

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Browns might be on their third string left tackle is

0:26:39.000 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 2>certainly not a good thing.

0:26:40.359 --> 0:26:42.200
<v Speaker 1>All right, I don't I don't have a good feel.

0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:44.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to remember what my we on Monday. We

0:26:44.080 --> 0:26:46.240
<v Speaker 1>do like an opening reactions line. You know what is

0:26:46.359 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 1>our opening reaction to the line? I don't remember what

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:50.520
<v Speaker 1>my life I feel like. I like the over, but

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:53.480
<v Speaker 1>I don't really have a good feel for right now.

0:26:53.880 --> 0:26:55.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, I can see I think the Browns are

0:26:55.840 --> 0:26:58.840
<v Speaker 1>gonna run all day long, which is obviously generally speaking

0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:01.040
<v Speaker 1>good for the under, but I don't have a good

0:27:01.080 --> 0:27:03.000
<v Speaker 1>sense of it. It's actually it's funny because it's it's

0:27:03.080 --> 0:27:05.880
<v Speaker 1>sixty five percent of the people picking on Bettingbros. Dot

0:27:05.920 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 1>Com are on the over right now, so you're in

0:27:07.920 --> 0:27:10.360
<v Speaker 1>the minority here, which I know you're fine with, right.

0:27:10.640 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I love being the one, all right, I'm going to go.

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to see whether or not I'm in the

0:27:15.440 --> 0:27:17.920
<v Speaker 1>minority or the majority on this one. And it's no

0:27:17.960 --> 0:27:21.720
<v Speaker 1>big I'm just gonna scroll and waste time. Okay, Yeah,

0:27:21.760 --> 0:27:23.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm in the minority big time on this one. And

0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:26.520
<v Speaker 1>it is the Dolphins getting three and a half against

0:27:26.640 --> 0:27:29.120
<v Speaker 1>the Bills. Seventy nine percent of our experts here are

0:27:29.200 --> 0:27:32.120
<v Speaker 1>taking the Bills, only twenty one percent taking the Dolphins.

0:27:32.160 --> 0:27:35.159
<v Speaker 1>I am one of those twenty one percent. This is

0:27:35.240 --> 0:27:39.399
<v Speaker 1>not an overly analytical analysis for this one. And this

0:27:39.520 --> 0:27:42.480
<v Speaker 1>is not a you know, it's sort of the opposite, right,

0:27:42.520 --> 0:27:45.040
<v Speaker 1>like the Bill's lost and the Dolphins one, and so

0:27:45.240 --> 0:27:47.199
<v Speaker 1>you know, blah blah blah. But the bottom line is this.

0:27:47.800 --> 0:27:51.360
<v Speaker 1>It's a divisional matchup. It's between two really good teams.

0:27:51.520 --> 0:27:53.720
<v Speaker 1>And I think if you are giving over a field

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 1>goal in a game like this, I'm just gonna take

0:27:56.720 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the hook. They're in Florida, right That is just very

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:02.600
<v Speaker 1>especially right now in the summer, Like we know this,

0:28:02.640 --> 0:28:05.080
<v Speaker 1>We've seen it with Tom Brady or whatever. It's sort

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:08.040
<v Speaker 1>of difficult for road teams to acclimate to that, especially

0:28:08.080 --> 0:28:11.679
<v Speaker 1>when it's really really hot. I think the Bills played

0:28:12.040 --> 0:28:14.720
<v Speaker 1>okay against the Steelers, Steelers have a great defense, but

0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:18.960
<v Speaker 1>I did think that they showed some cracks a little bit.

0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:22.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, their offensive line wasn't really great. It wasn't

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:25.399
<v Speaker 1>really that great, you know, necessarily last year and now

0:28:25.520 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 1>last week they met in this exact same spot in

0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Miami in Week two it was thirty one twenty eight.

0:28:31.280 --> 0:28:34.120
<v Speaker 1>I can see sort of something. It's different obviously because

0:28:34.119 --> 0:28:35.760
<v Speaker 1>Fitz was there. But I do think that this is

0:28:35.760 --> 0:28:37.240
<v Speaker 1>going to be a close game. I think the Dolphins

0:28:37.280 --> 0:28:40.520
<v Speaker 1>obviously have a very very solid and underrated defense. I

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 1>think zaviy I'm very excited to see Zavian Howard matchup

0:28:43.520 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>against Von Diggs, which I expect in this game, which

0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:47.280
<v Speaker 1>we saw at the end of last year. He did

0:28:47.320 --> 0:28:50.720
<v Speaker 1>a decent job of keeping him under control. But this

0:28:50.760 --> 0:28:52.960
<v Speaker 1>is something where I think it might take a little

0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:55.600
<v Speaker 1>while for the Bills kind of to round back into

0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 1>form here. And I think the Dolphins, as much as

0:28:58.200 --> 0:29:01.320
<v Speaker 1>they didn't look explosive as much as we wanted to

0:29:01.320 --> 0:29:03.800
<v Speaker 1>to sort of all right, throw into coverage, like be

0:29:04.000 --> 0:29:05.720
<v Speaker 1>a more of a gun singer, and he wasn't, I

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:07.520
<v Speaker 1>think they can survive like that. I think this game

0:29:07.560 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>might be a little lower scoring than people expect Will

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:12.320
<v Speaker 1>Fuller should be back, although I saw that he missed

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:15.360
<v Speaker 1>practice today for an undisclosed reason. If he's out, that

0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:16.960
<v Speaker 1>might color the way I feel about it. But I

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:20.160
<v Speaker 1>think that Fuller does add another dimension to this offense.

0:29:20.320 --> 0:29:23.160
<v Speaker 1>DeVante Parker looked great last week as well. Miles Gaskin

0:29:23.280 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 1>is very solid. Jaalen Waddell had a very nice opening game.

0:29:26.040 --> 0:29:28.720
<v Speaker 1>To me, again, it's not overly analytical. It's just a

0:29:28.760 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>divisional matchup between two teams that are very solid and

0:29:33.400 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>know each other really well. It strikes me as much

0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:37.360
<v Speaker 1>more of a field goal, so I would take the

0:29:37.360 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>hook either way. But I'm wondering because are so many

0:29:39.960 --> 0:29:41.800
<v Speaker 1>people are on the Bills whether or not you feel

0:29:41.840 --> 0:29:42.200
<v Speaker 1>the same.

0:29:42.840 --> 0:29:44.920
<v Speaker 2>So if we look at home field advantage again being

0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:47.480
<v Speaker 2>one point nine, that says that the Bills would be

0:29:47.600 --> 0:29:49.960
<v Speaker 2>minus seven and a half in the spot against the

0:29:50.040 --> 0:29:52.440
<v Speaker 2>Dolphins a week after being minus six and a half

0:29:52.440 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 2>against the Steelers. So what the market is telling us

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 2>is that they believe in this spot that the gap

0:29:57.200 --> 0:29:59.360
<v Speaker 2>between the Bills and the Dolphins is one point higher

0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:02.200
<v Speaker 2>than the gap between the Bills and the Steelers. I

0:30:02.640 --> 0:30:05.840
<v Speaker 2>don't know if that's true. Last week. The Bill Steelers

0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:10.680
<v Speaker 2>game was absolutely fascinating because the Steelers blitzed on one play,

0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:14.840
<v Speaker 2>I know, one play. That being said, not every team

0:30:14.960 --> 0:30:17.640
<v Speaker 2>has a TJ. Watt and the Melvin Ingram and the

0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:20.400
<v Speaker 2>horses up front to just send four and be comfortable

0:30:20.480 --> 0:30:23.680
<v Speaker 2>dropping seven back in coverage, which was a headache for

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:26.960
<v Speaker 2>Josh Allen. Josh Allen eats against blitzes, he eats against

0:30:27.000 --> 0:30:30.160
<v Speaker 2>man coverage. The Dolphins blitz at a fifty percent rate

0:30:30.440 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 2>last week against the Patriots. Are they going to do

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 2>the same this week? Is Brian Flores going to try

0:30:36.360 --> 0:30:38.600
<v Speaker 2>to send pressure? If he does, I think the Bills

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:41.280
<v Speaker 2>are certainly going to look more like the twenty twenty

0:30:41.320 --> 0:30:43.640
<v Speaker 2>Bills than they did in Week one. But this is

0:30:43.960 --> 0:30:47.160
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this line to me is just razor sharp.

0:30:47.680 --> 0:30:51.320
<v Speaker 2>I could see the Bills getting back to their old ways, scoring,

0:30:51.600 --> 0:30:54.520
<v Speaker 2>pushing edges, getting the ball downfield, and then what does

0:30:54.600 --> 0:30:57.720
<v Speaker 2>two A do in negative script? That's the biggest issue

0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:02.240
<v Speaker 2>for the Dolphins this season. They have very defined RPO

0:31:02.400 --> 0:31:06.880
<v Speaker 2>style offense. Easy throws, easy decisions for Tua. What happens

0:31:06.920 --> 0:31:09.360
<v Speaker 2>when he's down you know a touchdown plus and he's

0:31:09.400 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 2>throwing you know four verts and making decisions that last

0:31:14.360 --> 0:31:16.640
<v Speaker 2>year he was very conservative in doing so. So I'm

0:31:16.680 --> 0:31:18.600
<v Speaker 2>going to be a bystander for this game. I think

0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be a very fun game between two

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 2>good teams, and I'll let you be brave in the

0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:25.880
<v Speaker 2>spot and click the dog.

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:28.080
<v Speaker 1>It's gonna be such an ugly week for us, my friend,

0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:29.640
<v Speaker 1>and not that we're gonna lose. I just mean we're

0:31:29.640 --> 0:31:33.160
<v Speaker 1>gonna be rooting for such, you know, such terrible underdogs here. Okay,

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 1>so you are taking Let's just recap very quickly. At

0:31:35.040 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 1>the end, Panther is getting three and a half from

0:31:37.640 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>the Saints, the Jaguars getting six from the Broncos, and

0:31:40.560 --> 0:31:44.000
<v Speaker 1>the Texans, and the Browns going under forty seven and

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:48.480
<v Speaker 1>a half total points. I am taking the Vikings getting

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting

0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:53.800
<v Speaker 1>five and a half from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins

0:31:53.840 --> 0:31:56.720
<v Speaker 1>getting three and a half from Bill's Man. Somebody who's

0:31:56.760 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>listening to this podcast for the first time, they're like,

0:31:58.720 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 1>these guys some intestinal fortitude. Okay, how about let's run

0:32:03.960 --> 0:32:05.840
<v Speaker 1>through very quickly the rest of the game. We talked

0:32:05.880 --> 0:32:09.240
<v Speaker 1>about the over runner. Obviously on the Browns and Texans.

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 1>But what do you think about the fact that the

0:32:10.360 --> 0:32:12.360
<v Speaker 1>Browns are laying twelve and a half points here doesn't

0:32:12.360 --> 0:32:14.840
<v Speaker 1>matter with you what happens with the offensive lineman or what.

0:32:15.080 --> 0:32:18.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think So what's interesting is the look ahead

0:32:19.000 --> 0:32:21.960
<v Speaker 2>was thirteen, So the Texans got some respect for the

0:32:22.000 --> 0:32:23.960
<v Speaker 2>fact that they went out and won the game out

0:32:24.000 --> 0:32:26.560
<v Speaker 2>right last week. Granted it's a half point of respect,

0:32:26.760 --> 0:32:30.480
<v Speaker 2>not towards or off of a key number. But if

0:32:30.520 --> 0:32:35.160
<v Speaker 2>those two players in Treder and Conklin are dnps today, yeah,

0:32:35.240 --> 0:32:37.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm definitely leaning the points in the spot, thinking that

0:32:37.680 --> 0:32:40.880
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be a low scoring affair, that Tyrod Taylor,

0:32:40.920 --> 0:32:43.520
<v Speaker 2>the veteran that he is, can navigate the Texans to

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:45.160
<v Speaker 2>a non blowout in Cleveland.

0:32:45.240 --> 0:32:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm betting for It's pretty split. Fifty six percent

0:32:48.280 --> 0:32:51.280
<v Speaker 1>or taking the Browns, forty four percent are taking the Texans.

0:32:51.320 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't think I've made a pick yet on this game.

0:32:53.240 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure how I feel about it. If I do,

0:32:55.600 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, dabble, it'll probably be the last minute. But

0:32:58.040 --> 0:32:59.280
<v Speaker 1>I don't have a great feel for it, so it's

0:32:59.280 --> 0:33:01.680
<v Speaker 1>a stay away from me. How about the Bears laying

0:33:01.720 --> 0:33:05.040
<v Speaker 1>two and a half at home against the Bengals, and

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:07.479
<v Speaker 1>I think it was three when I looked at it

0:33:07.520 --> 0:33:10.040
<v Speaker 1>earlier in the week, so it must have dropped half

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:11.280
<v Speaker 1>a point. What do you think here about two and

0:33:11.320 --> 0:33:11.520
<v Speaker 1>a half?

0:33:11.840 --> 0:33:13.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, a lot of shop money came in on the

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.040
<v Speaker 2>Bengals earlier in the week. I've actually seen this as

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 2>low as one at some books. I think you have

0:33:20.960 --> 0:33:23.800
<v Speaker 2>to just take the Bears sub a field goal. Yeah,

0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 2>I believe the look ahead in this spot was above

0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:30.880
<v Speaker 2>a field goal. If I'm not correct, let me just

0:33:30.920 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 2>pull it up here. Ye, look ahead was four and

0:33:32.880 --> 0:33:37.200
<v Speaker 2>a half. So that's a very large move too, and

0:33:37.280 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 2>through a key number. Again, it is influential money that's

0:33:41.320 --> 0:33:45.280
<v Speaker 2>making this move. But we're buying the Bengals off of

0:33:45.320 --> 0:33:50.320
<v Speaker 2>a massive underdog win, and we're selling the Bears against

0:33:50.360 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 2>losing against potentially the best team in the NFC. I'm

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:57.280
<v Speaker 2>very bullish on the Los Angeles Rams. I think the

0:33:57.320 --> 0:34:01.120
<v Speaker 2>addition of Stafford is massive to McVeigh. More importantly, I

0:34:01.160 --> 0:34:04.240
<v Speaker 2>think what the Rams have done on defense the last

0:34:04.240 --> 0:34:08.359
<v Speaker 2>two years is something that is going to become more

0:34:08.400 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 2>prevalent and more understood. The athletic had a tremendous article

0:34:12.160 --> 0:34:15.080
<v Speaker 2>about Brandon Staley and what he's done with the two

0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:18.200
<v Speaker 2>deep defense and how he's adapted it to almost be

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:23.000
<v Speaker 2>basically the how McVeigh uses eleven on offense. You show

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:25.000
<v Speaker 2>one luck and you can do multiple things out of it.

0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:27.480
<v Speaker 2>The way that Brandon Staley is treating two deep coverage

0:34:27.520 --> 0:34:29.360
<v Speaker 2>on defense is something that I think is going to

0:34:29.400 --> 0:34:30.919
<v Speaker 2>take the league by storm. And I think the Rams

0:34:30.960 --> 0:34:32.799
<v Speaker 2>have a massive edge on defense, and the Chargers do

0:34:32.880 --> 0:34:35.399
<v Speaker 2>now as well with Stalely as head coach. So I'm

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:37.759
<v Speaker 2>not going to fault the Bears for getting blasted out

0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:39.840
<v Speaker 2>of the water from a Rams team that was opening

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:42.160
<v Speaker 2>up a brand new stadium in prime time. So yeah,

0:34:42.160 --> 0:34:43.560
<v Speaker 2>I just think short of a field goal, you have

0:34:43.600 --> 0:34:44.480
<v Speaker 2>to take the Bears.

0:34:44.200 --> 0:34:45.759
<v Speaker 1>In the spot. I agree with you. I agree with

0:34:45.800 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 1>you here. I mean, I really do think now that

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:49.799
<v Speaker 1>it's dropped under a field goal, like the Bears at home,

0:34:50.200 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 1>their defense is still strong. I mean, and Galton didn't

0:34:53.320 --> 0:34:55.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, I didn't push the ball down the field,

0:34:55.680 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 1>but didn't play that poorly against a very very tough defense.

0:34:58.200 --> 0:35:01.040
<v Speaker 1>Dave Montgomery looked great. Yeah, and you know you got

0:35:01.360 --> 0:35:03.839
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals played well. I was impressed with Jamar Chase.

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Certainly in the opening game, I was impressed with Burrow,

0:35:05.719 --> 0:35:07.839
<v Speaker 1>but even Burrow has been complaining a little bit about

0:35:07.840 --> 0:35:09.920
<v Speaker 1>how sore his knee is like after that, which is

0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:12.120
<v Speaker 1>just natural. I think I agree with you. Now that's

0:35:12.200 --> 0:35:14.279
<v Speaker 1>under a field goal, I would lean the Bears. How

0:35:14.280 --> 0:35:16.799
<v Speaker 1>about the Eagles, which were again earlier in the week

0:35:16.920 --> 0:35:18.759
<v Speaker 1>getting three and a half. They're now just getting three

0:35:18.760 --> 0:35:20.880
<v Speaker 1>from the forty nine ers in Philadelphia.

0:35:20.960 --> 0:35:23.239
<v Speaker 2>So one of my twenty twenty one goals is to

0:35:23.280 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 2>be a little less stubborn, at least try to be

0:35:25.680 --> 0:35:28.000
<v Speaker 2>a little less stubborn. And I came into the season

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:33.560
<v Speaker 2>with very very negative connotations towards the Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe

0:35:33.560 --> 0:35:36.560
<v Speaker 2>the Nick Sirianni press conference colored my analysis a little

0:35:36.560 --> 0:35:39.960
<v Speaker 2>bit too much. Certainly Jalen Hurts' inability to play the

0:35:40.040 --> 0:35:43.239
<v Speaker 2>quarterback position last year colored my analysis. But I have

0:35:43.280 --> 0:35:45.799
<v Speaker 2>to give them so much credit for what they did

0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:49.240
<v Speaker 2>last week. They gave Jalen Hurts as many easy throws

0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:51.960
<v Speaker 2>as possible and a dodd of three point seven. Let's

0:35:52.040 --> 0:35:56.120
<v Speaker 2>not make him diagnose the field go through multiple reads.

0:35:56.440 --> 0:35:59.520
<v Speaker 2>Let's get these very fast, skilled position players the ball

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:02.080
<v Speaker 2>at the line skirmage and let Jalen Hurs play some

0:36:02.160 --> 0:36:05.680
<v Speaker 2>Reid option. They got Kenneth Gainwell involved early. You know,

0:36:05.719 --> 0:36:08.040
<v Speaker 2>a lot of teams would just trot Boston Scott out

0:36:08.239 --> 0:36:11.719
<v Speaker 2>the veteran, give him those passing down touches. They took

0:36:11.719 --> 0:36:13.040
<v Speaker 2>the kid and they said, you know what, we think

0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:15.319
<v Speaker 2>he's talented. We saw a lot of him in training camp.

0:36:15.480 --> 0:36:18.880
<v Speaker 2>He got thirty three percent of the snaps. So maybe

0:36:18.880 --> 0:36:21.640
<v Speaker 2>Sirianni's a little sharper than I gave him credit for.

0:36:21.760 --> 0:36:25.600
<v Speaker 2>And if that's the case, with Philadelphia being so stout

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:28.880
<v Speaker 2>on both offensive and defensive line and some of these

0:36:28.920 --> 0:36:33.160
<v Speaker 2>injuries for the Niners, Eric Armstead, Drake Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:37.359
<v Speaker 2>all DNPS yesterday, this line might be a little bit

0:36:37.560 --> 0:36:39.719
<v Speaker 2>too rich. I'm very bullsh on the Niners. I think

0:36:39.760 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 2>the Niners are going to have a tremendous season. Yeah massive,

0:36:42.800 --> 0:36:46.160
<v Speaker 2>Kyle Shanahan, Stan, But you know, this might just be

0:36:46.239 --> 0:36:48.880
<v Speaker 2>a little bit too rich for a West Coast team. Travelings.

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:50.840
<v Speaker 1>I liked it at three and a half. At three,

0:36:51.440 --> 0:36:53.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm just I'm staying away. I look, I was somebody

0:36:53.480 --> 0:36:55.239
<v Speaker 1>who you know, you know I do fantasy, obviously, I

0:36:55.239 --> 0:36:58.600
<v Speaker 1>do fantasy projections as well. But I was big unhurt

0:36:58.760 --> 0:37:00.279
<v Speaker 1>this whole year, and I was sort of like, well,

0:37:00.800 --> 0:37:02.719
<v Speaker 1>worst case scenario, it's going to be his legs and

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:05.799
<v Speaker 1>he'll be fine. But I was hoping that what we

0:37:05.840 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 1>would see is that you have an entire off season,

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:10.120
<v Speaker 1>Deshaun Watson, rumors be damned. You have an entire off

0:37:10.120 --> 0:37:14.200
<v Speaker 1>season to devote yourself to creating an offense that revolves

0:37:14.280 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 1>around Jalen Hurts. The skill set that is exactly what

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:19.399
<v Speaker 1>they did. And their offensive line played really well. Their

0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:22.040
<v Speaker 1>defensive line as solid as we know. So I think

0:37:22.080 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 1>the Eagles there's a lot of reason to be optimistic

0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:27.400
<v Speaker 1>with that said, I don't know yet. I need, you know,

0:37:27.520 --> 0:37:30.880
<v Speaker 1>beating up on an Atlanta team that just looked terrible.

0:37:31.600 --> 0:37:33.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, I need to see it again here against

0:37:33.080 --> 0:37:34.600
<v Speaker 1>the forty nine ers, which is why I'm staying away.

0:37:34.600 --> 0:37:35.839
<v Speaker 1>But I would take it at three and a half.

0:37:35.880 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 1>You can find it out there. I know that it's

0:37:37.680 --> 0:37:39.960
<v Speaker 1>still lingering out there at some books. I would take

0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:41.960
<v Speaker 1>that at three. I think it's a stay away. But

0:37:42.120 --> 0:37:42.920
<v Speaker 1>I misspoke there.

0:37:43.000 --> 0:37:45.440
<v Speaker 2>Sorry. The Niners did of course, Shannon had did the

0:37:45.440 --> 0:37:48.080
<v Speaker 2>smart thing they see. They stayed East after the Detroit

0:37:48.120 --> 0:37:50.439
<v Speaker 2>game last week, so no long road trip.

0:37:50.719 --> 0:37:52.840
<v Speaker 1>It's still though, I mean, it still is, like I

0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:56.560
<v Speaker 1>know they do that living in It's still a big

0:37:56.600 --> 0:37:59.480
<v Speaker 1>deal if you stay out east like I realized, Like okay, good,

0:37:59.680 --> 0:38:02.839
<v Speaker 1>but really it's still a big, a big move. This

0:38:02.880 --> 0:38:06.200
<v Speaker 1>one's interesting. It's not surprising to me that the betting

0:38:06.239 --> 0:38:08.440
<v Speaker 1>experts have made the picks that way they have. The

0:38:08.520 --> 0:38:11.640
<v Speaker 1>Rams are visiting the Colts. The Rams are currently three

0:38:11.680 --> 0:38:14.600
<v Speaker 1>and a half point favorites. Ninety percent of the picks

0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:17.239
<v Speaker 1>coming in on the Rams. Are you with them as

0:38:17.239 --> 0:38:19.080
<v Speaker 1>a buyer of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford?

0:38:19.440 --> 0:38:22.560
<v Speaker 2>Ah, this is tough, yep, could because a lot of

0:38:22.560 --> 0:38:25.759
<v Speaker 2>the stuff we just talked about was overreaction correct. How

0:38:25.800 --> 0:38:27.799
<v Speaker 2>do we take advantage of that in week two? And

0:38:27.880 --> 0:38:29.960
<v Speaker 2>naturally you would want to take the Colts and the

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:33.600
<v Speaker 2>points in this spot, But I don't know if I

0:38:33.600 --> 0:38:35.160
<v Speaker 2>can do it. I think I just and that doesn't

0:38:35.160 --> 0:38:36.879
<v Speaker 2>mean I'm going to click the Rams in the spot.

0:38:36.920 --> 0:38:38.920
<v Speaker 2>It just thinks I'm going to stay on the sideline

0:38:38.920 --> 0:38:40.840
<v Speaker 2>for this game. But what this line is saying is

0:38:40.840 --> 0:38:43.640
<v Speaker 2>that the Rams are a point better than the Seahawks.

0:38:43.760 --> 0:38:47.680
<v Speaker 2>Which you know is probably right. So this is probably

0:38:48.080 --> 0:38:52.440
<v Speaker 2>a fair line. And yeah, I think I think if

0:38:52.480 --> 0:38:56.759
<v Speaker 2>you like the Colts, you're believing in Aberflus coming out

0:38:57.080 --> 0:39:00.800
<v Speaker 2>and playing great defense, right the Colts not. Their biggest

0:39:00.800 --> 0:39:02.640
<v Speaker 2>trend in the last couple of years was to play

0:39:02.960 --> 0:39:05.799
<v Speaker 2>a very strong, two deep defense, keep everything in front

0:39:05.800 --> 0:39:08.239
<v Speaker 2>of you. I'll never forget they went to Arrowhead two

0:39:08.320 --> 0:39:10.200
<v Speaker 2>years ago. They were ten point dogs. They went in

0:39:10.239 --> 0:39:12.400
<v Speaker 2>on a Sunday night, beat them out right because they

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:15.319
<v Speaker 2>didn't give Tyreek or any of these chiefs weapons the

0:39:15.320 --> 0:39:17.600
<v Speaker 2>opportunity to get down the field, kept everything in front

0:39:17.600 --> 0:39:19.600
<v Speaker 2>of them and were able to win a little bit

0:39:19.600 --> 0:39:22.359
<v Speaker 2>of a rock fight. And that's the Colts calling card.

0:39:22.480 --> 0:39:25.080
<v Speaker 2>If they can do that. The Rams don't have a

0:39:25.120 --> 0:39:27.879
<v Speaker 2>great running game, they don't really have a great run

0:39:27.880 --> 0:39:31.319
<v Speaker 2>blocking offensive line. They can make this game a little ugly.

0:39:31.560 --> 0:39:35.839
<v Speaker 2>But you know, if the Rams can mimic what their

0:39:35.920 --> 0:39:39.759
<v Speaker 2>former coach did last week and attack these guys deep,

0:39:39.800 --> 0:39:41.960
<v Speaker 2>then they're gonna have some success. So I can see

0:39:41.960 --> 0:39:43.480
<v Speaker 2>a lot of outcomes here. I'm just gonna stay on

0:39:43.520 --> 0:39:44.000
<v Speaker 2>the sideline.

0:39:44.080 --> 0:39:46.080
<v Speaker 1>This is a git. We see so much the same way,

0:39:46.120 --> 0:39:48.160
<v Speaker 1>which is I think like realistically, you look at and

0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:50.640
<v Speaker 1>you're like, well, everything says you probably should take the

0:39:50.640 --> 0:39:53.840
<v Speaker 1>Colts in this game, just for the very reasons that

0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:56.520
<v Speaker 1>you and I have talked about nonstuff, and yet we

0:39:56.560 --> 0:39:59.240
<v Speaker 1>want to take the Rams because we both are buyers

0:39:59.239 --> 0:40:01.399
<v Speaker 1>on the Rams and things they looked incredible, and yet

0:40:01.520 --> 0:40:04.080
<v Speaker 1>neither one of us can really pull that trigger either way.

0:40:04.160 --> 0:40:06.480
<v Speaker 1>So I I'm going to stand inside. I wouldn't be

0:40:06.480 --> 0:40:08.560
<v Speaker 1>surprised to see the Rams win by a touchdown, but

0:40:08.840 --> 0:40:10.239
<v Speaker 1>it's something where I'm going to stay away from. How

0:40:10.239 --> 0:40:13.080
<v Speaker 1>about the Steelers at home Link six against the Raiders

0:40:13.080 --> 0:40:14.000
<v Speaker 1>on the short week.

0:40:14.160 --> 0:40:18.120
<v Speaker 2>TRYE traditionally a terrible stot spot for the Raiders short

0:40:18.120 --> 0:40:22.320
<v Speaker 2>week west to East. This Raiders offensive line is bad

0:40:23.239 --> 0:40:26.520
<v Speaker 2>and they still have Ritchie and Cognitio on the injury report.

0:40:27.080 --> 0:40:30.640
<v Speaker 2>Now they have to go block the Pittsburgh Steelers, who,

0:40:30.719 --> 0:40:33.840
<v Speaker 2>unlike the Ravens, don't have to send pressure because just

0:40:33.880 --> 0:40:36.000
<v Speaker 2>like they did against the Bills, they can generate a

0:40:36.040 --> 0:40:39.560
<v Speaker 2>pass rush with four Minka Fitzpatrick is one of the

0:40:39.600 --> 0:40:42.359
<v Speaker 2>few players in the league where you can put him

0:40:42.400 --> 0:40:44.680
<v Speaker 2>on Darren Waller, and I don't think anybody can stop

0:40:44.760 --> 0:40:49.440
<v Speaker 2>Darren Waller. Those crossers are absolutely lethal, probably unguardable. But

0:40:49.920 --> 0:40:52.880
<v Speaker 2>the job that Fitzpatrick did last week against Cole Beasley,

0:40:52.920 --> 0:40:55.520
<v Speaker 2>and you might scoff off, you know, Cole Beasley slock guy.

0:40:55.560 --> 0:40:57.600
<v Speaker 2>But Cole is very slippery in the slot and a

0:40:57.640 --> 0:41:00.600
<v Speaker 2>great route runner, and Fitzpatrick did a hell of a

0:41:00.719 --> 0:41:03.160
<v Speaker 2>job on him. So He's going to be able to

0:41:03.360 --> 0:41:06.880
<v Speaker 2>at least anoy Waller in this game and force car

0:41:06.920 --> 0:41:10.640
<v Speaker 2>and the Raiders offense to go elsewhere. Six is pretty rich, though,

0:41:10.680 --> 0:41:13.920
<v Speaker 2>five and a half now I'm seeing five in some spots.

0:41:13.920 --> 0:41:18.160
<v Speaker 2>So do we trust the Pittsburgh defense to keep this

0:41:18.440 --> 0:41:22.040
<v Speaker 2>super low? Yes? But do we trust Big Ben and

0:41:22.080 --> 0:41:24.600
<v Speaker 2>that arm and the prayers that he tends to throw

0:41:24.760 --> 0:41:28.080
<v Speaker 2>at Deantay Johnson and Chase Claypool to establish a lead

0:41:28.320 --> 0:41:30.839
<v Speaker 2>and extend the lead? I don't think so. So gun

0:41:30.880 --> 0:41:34.040
<v Speaker 2>to my head, I think I'm taking the points and

0:41:34.160 --> 0:41:37.680
<v Speaker 2>hoping that Derek Carr can can generate some offense against

0:41:37.719 --> 0:41:38.719
<v Speaker 2>this tremendous pass rush.

0:41:38.840 --> 0:41:40.799
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this is pretty split down the middle, fifty three

0:41:40.840 --> 0:41:42.880
<v Speaker 1>percent on the Raiders forty seven percent of the Steelers.

0:41:42.920 --> 0:41:45.120
<v Speaker 1>I am taking neither for sure. This is a classic

0:41:45.160 --> 0:41:47.880
<v Speaker 1>Tomlin like letdown spot. Like you got to be an underdog,

0:41:47.920 --> 0:41:50.520
<v Speaker 1>you gotta be on the road. Nobody believes that's for

0:41:50.560 --> 0:41:53.200
<v Speaker 1>Mike Tomlin. When you're a favorite by nearly a touchdown

0:41:53.280 --> 0:41:55.239
<v Speaker 1>at home, with everything being like, ah, you should win

0:41:55.280 --> 0:41:57.400
<v Speaker 1>this man, you'll be all right, it's like, nah, run away.

0:41:57.719 --> 0:41:59.520
<v Speaker 1>So but I can bring myself to take the Raiders

0:41:59.520 --> 0:42:02.000
<v Speaker 1>here for the you mentioned, it's just very top on

0:42:02.040 --> 0:42:04.560
<v Speaker 1>this short week. It's not like a good match in

0:42:04.640 --> 0:42:07.800
<v Speaker 1>terms of the ability of the Steelers to get pressure

0:42:07.840 --> 0:42:10.480
<v Speaker 1>without bringing the blitz. So just to stay away from me.

0:42:10.600 --> 0:42:14.120
<v Speaker 1>But I guess gun to my head, like you said,

0:42:14.320 --> 0:42:16.600
<v Speaker 1>I would be on the Raiders. But thankfully there is

0:42:16.600 --> 0:42:18.320
<v Speaker 1>no gun to my head. So let's go onto the

0:42:18.480 --> 0:42:22.640
<v Speaker 1>Patriots visiting our jets. The spread has climbed to six

0:42:23.200 --> 0:42:26.480
<v Speaker 1>Jets getting six eighty two percent of the people taking

0:42:26.480 --> 0:42:29.040
<v Speaker 1>the Patriots, eighteen percent taking the Jets.

0:42:29.080 --> 0:42:32.080
<v Speaker 2>What do you think, Congratulations if you grab the Patriots

0:42:32.120 --> 0:42:35.480
<v Speaker 2>ticket Sunday night Monday morning, Very good job by you,

0:42:35.560 --> 0:42:40.080
<v Speaker 2>because yes, this has steamed in the direction of the Patriots.

0:42:40.480 --> 0:42:42.000
<v Speaker 2>I don't know how high it has to get for

0:42:42.080 --> 0:42:43.960
<v Speaker 2>me to take the Jets. I don't think it's high enough.

0:42:44.880 --> 0:42:47.320
<v Speaker 2>But I don't think I'm taking Mac Jones on the

0:42:47.400 --> 0:42:51.080
<v Speaker 2>road at this number either. I did really like the

0:42:51.640 --> 0:42:54.880
<v Speaker 2>three and a half. I thought that was a pretty

0:42:54.920 --> 0:42:58.280
<v Speaker 2>good selection. The big issue is just this Jets offensive

0:42:58.320 --> 0:43:01.360
<v Speaker 2>line with becked and out. I mean, what is Matthew

0:43:01.480 --> 0:43:05.200
<v Speaker 2>Judon going to do to this offensive line? Zach Wilson

0:43:05.280 --> 0:43:07.720
<v Speaker 2>is gonna have pressure in his face the entire game.

0:43:08.000 --> 0:43:12.839
<v Speaker 2>Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks do so. I think

0:43:12.880 --> 0:43:16.040
<v Speaker 2>Sala will do a decent job against a rookie quarterback

0:43:16.080 --> 0:43:17.680
<v Speaker 2>in his own, but he just doesn't have the horses

0:43:17.719 --> 0:43:21.640
<v Speaker 2>that Belichick has. I mean, you go out and you

0:43:21.680 --> 0:43:24.560
<v Speaker 2>sign LaMarcus Joyner. He plays nine snaps. I mean Karl

0:43:24.600 --> 0:43:29.680
<v Speaker 2>Lawson plays zero snaps. And now you've just got Bryce

0:43:29.719 --> 0:43:35.720
<v Speaker 2>Hall and a cast of misfits back cornerback. So tough spot.

0:43:35.800 --> 0:43:37.880
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's high enough to take the Jets.

0:43:39.200 --> 0:43:42.239
<v Speaker 2>So I guess I'm leaning Patriots. But yeah, this is

0:43:42.239 --> 0:43:43.600
<v Speaker 2>gonna be an ugly affair amount life.

0:43:43.680 --> 0:43:46.719
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, staying away at six points too much like that.

0:43:46.840 --> 0:43:49.319
<v Speaker 1>That's the bottom line. Like the Patriots should win this game.

0:43:49.600 --> 0:43:53.879
<v Speaker 1>It should probably it should not be threatened, but six

0:43:53.880 --> 0:43:55.760
<v Speaker 1>points is too much for mac Jones on the rock

0:43:56.040 --> 0:43:58.640
<v Speaker 1>just interest is like, there's just no way, and you're right,

0:43:58.840 --> 0:44:01.040
<v Speaker 1>you got it early. That's great, but right now I

0:44:01.080 --> 0:44:05.480
<v Speaker 1>can't hopefully, you know, the floor designs something to get

0:44:05.520 --> 0:44:07.759
<v Speaker 1>around the fact that their offensive line is you and

0:44:07.800 --> 0:44:10.200
<v Speaker 1>me basically playing at this point, which is crazy with

0:44:10.400 --> 0:44:13.200
<v Speaker 1>how much they've invested into this offensive line. But it's

0:44:13.239 --> 0:44:15.840
<v Speaker 1>going to be bad. So but I'm saying away again

0:44:16.000 --> 0:44:18.719
<v Speaker 1>just because it can't go with mac Jones lay in six.

0:44:18.960 --> 0:44:20.680
<v Speaker 1>How about another big spread here, A couple of big

0:44:20.680 --> 0:44:22.600
<v Speaker 1>spreads this week. Bucks playing twelve and a half to

0:44:22.640 --> 0:44:23.680
<v Speaker 1>the Falcons at home.

0:44:25.040 --> 0:44:26.200
<v Speaker 2>Is Arthur Smith a fraud?

0:44:27.760 --> 0:44:30.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we're not ready to call that after

0:44:30.040 --> 0:44:33.520
<v Speaker 1>a game. It didn't look good that first game, but you.

0:44:33.480 --> 0:44:39.400
<v Speaker 2>Know, they were so unprepared. They ran the ball so

0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:47.080
<v Speaker 2>frequently on first down despite having such little success up front,

0:44:47.120 --> 0:44:52.960
<v Speaker 2>getting pushed and trailing. That was puzzling. Everything that I

0:44:53.000 --> 0:44:57.160
<v Speaker 2>saw out of the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was absolutely puzzling.

0:44:58.200 --> 0:45:02.279
<v Speaker 2>Matt Ryan is not somebody who could get back there

0:45:02.680 --> 0:45:06.719
<v Speaker 2>and move around. There were assignments blown up front by

0:45:06.760 --> 0:45:10.040
<v Speaker 2>the offensive line. This is a terrifying spot for a

0:45:10.080 --> 0:45:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Bucks team. That has extra rest and the defensive strength

0:45:13.600 --> 0:45:16.440
<v Speaker 2>up front that we saw. You know, the Cowboys have

0:45:16.440 --> 0:45:19.399
<v Speaker 2>a really good defensive offensive line. For sure, they were

0:45:19.520 --> 0:45:23.640
<v Speaker 2>missing Zach Martine, but you know they're a solid outfit,

0:45:23.719 --> 0:45:26.160
<v Speaker 2>and the Bucks were still getting pressure in that spot.

0:45:26.200 --> 0:45:29.439
<v Speaker 2>So I can only imagine what's going to happen when

0:45:29.719 --> 0:45:33.400
<v Speaker 2>the Bucks defense starts eating against this Atlanta offensive line.

0:45:33.719 --> 0:45:36.920
<v Speaker 2>And what is this Atlanta defense going to do against

0:45:36.920 --> 0:45:40.319
<v Speaker 2>Tom Brady in this Bucks offense. So I think the

0:45:40.440 --> 0:45:43.960
<v Speaker 2>move look ahead with eight moves to twelve, I think

0:45:44.000 --> 0:45:47.359
<v Speaker 2>the move is justified. And I mean I could see

0:45:47.400 --> 0:45:50.840
<v Speaker 2>the Bucks winning this game by a very very healthy amount.

0:45:50.920 --> 0:45:53.920
<v Speaker 2>I'm very concerned with Arthur Smith as the coach of

0:45:53.920 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 2>the Falcons.

0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:57.040
<v Speaker 1>Guns. In my head, it's the Bucks in this one.

0:45:57.160 --> 0:45:59.000
<v Speaker 1>But I also can't lay twelve and a half at

0:45:59.040 --> 0:46:01.200
<v Speaker 1>this point like I can't, because that to me strikes

0:46:01.239 --> 0:46:03.760
<v Speaker 1>me as a You look at the Falcons. The Falcons

0:46:03.800 --> 0:46:05.280
<v Speaker 1>looked like they were the worst team in the league

0:46:05.360 --> 0:46:08.360
<v Speaker 1>in that game. They looked terrible, they looked terribly coached,

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:11.239
<v Speaker 1>they didn't have the personnel. I'm not ready to say

0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:13.560
<v Speaker 1>that's exactly what we're going to see. Your rest of season,

0:46:13.680 --> 0:46:16.200
<v Speaker 1>just for the same reason we're talking about everything. But

0:46:16.320 --> 0:46:19.200
<v Speaker 1>it looked horrific, and we do know that the Bucks

0:46:19.200 --> 0:46:21.600
<v Speaker 1>are going to put up a ton of points because

0:46:21.960 --> 0:46:24.239
<v Speaker 1>the Bucks had the exact same personnel that they had

0:46:24.719 --> 0:46:26.880
<v Speaker 1>last year. They did it against the Cowboys, So I

0:46:27.000 --> 0:46:29.880
<v Speaker 1>lean Bucks, But twelve and a half, I need to

0:46:29.920 --> 0:46:32.560
<v Speaker 1>see it again. If they look like that again the Falcons,

0:46:33.080 --> 0:46:37.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm fully running hard away and just whatever look aheadline

0:46:37.200 --> 0:46:39.440
<v Speaker 1>I can get on against the Falcons I will take

0:46:39.480 --> 0:46:41.720
<v Speaker 1>now because it's just gonna climb. How about the Chargers,

0:46:41.760 --> 0:46:43.319
<v Speaker 1>which are now laying three and a half at home

0:46:43.360 --> 0:46:45.480
<v Speaker 1>against the Cowboys. This was three earlier in the week

0:46:45.520 --> 0:46:45.839
<v Speaker 1>when I.

0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:50.040
<v Speaker 2>Looked big injuries for the Cowboys are at least one big

0:46:50.080 --> 0:46:54.600
<v Speaker 2>injury with DeMarcus Lawrence and now this Lyle Collins suspension.

0:46:55.040 --> 0:46:57.840
<v Speaker 2>You get back Zach Martin, but you lose your left tackle.

0:46:58.360 --> 0:47:00.839
<v Speaker 2>That's never a good thing. I think people are going

0:47:00.840 --> 0:47:04.000
<v Speaker 2>to be enamored with the Cowboys and their offense and

0:47:04.120 --> 0:47:07.120
<v Speaker 2>the stories coming out that Dak was a great decision maker,

0:47:07.160 --> 0:47:10.759
<v Speaker 2>which he was on the Thursday opener audibling out of

0:47:10.800 --> 0:47:12.920
<v Speaker 2>I think more than half of the run calls that

0:47:13.000 --> 0:47:15.720
<v Speaker 2>kellenm Moore put out there, put the Cowboys into good spots,

0:47:16.160 --> 0:47:18.000
<v Speaker 2>was throwing the ball all over the field, did a

0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:21.319
<v Speaker 2>great job. But I don't know in this spot. I'm

0:47:21.480 --> 0:47:25.840
<v Speaker 2>again very bullish on the Chargers, and I was surprised

0:47:25.920 --> 0:47:28.400
<v Speaker 2>last week so GridION Garible. We play in the Circus

0:47:28.440 --> 0:47:31.000
<v Speaker 2>Sports million contests and the Washington football team was a

0:47:31.080 --> 0:47:35.040
<v Speaker 2>top five popular pick last week, and that was puzzling

0:47:35.440 --> 0:47:39.520
<v Speaker 2>to me. I just think the Chargers team is really good.

0:47:40.000 --> 0:47:44.040
<v Speaker 2>Herbert is already I think a top ten quarterback. He

0:47:44.160 --> 0:47:46.759
<v Speaker 2>just stands in there on those third downs, makes really

0:47:46.800 --> 0:47:50.080
<v Speaker 2>tough throws, throws outside the number he can make, and

0:47:50.800 --> 0:47:53.000
<v Speaker 2>Lombardy is going to be able to put him in

0:47:53.040 --> 0:47:56.799
<v Speaker 2>positions that Anthony Lynn didn't last year in scheming up

0:47:57.000 --> 0:48:00.359
<v Speaker 2>a better offensive plan than with the former charge head

0:48:00.400 --> 0:48:03.439
<v Speaker 2>coach was able to do. I don't love the line

0:48:03.440 --> 0:48:05.400
<v Speaker 2>move again. This is another one where hey, if you

0:48:05.440 --> 0:48:07.919
<v Speaker 2>got out Sunday night Monday morning, you grab the two,

0:48:08.320 --> 0:48:11.840
<v Speaker 2>you grab the two before this got two and above three. Congratulations.

0:48:12.560 --> 0:48:15.600
<v Speaker 2>But I still think that if you were to make

0:48:15.640 --> 0:48:19.120
<v Speaker 2>me select the side here, it would be the Chargers. Yeah,

0:48:19.719 --> 0:48:24.200
<v Speaker 2>I think that. Yeah, I think the Dallas defense is

0:48:24.680 --> 0:48:27.279
<v Speaker 2>that bad and that Brandon Staley will just be able

0:48:27.280 --> 0:48:30.040
<v Speaker 2>to do enough to limit this awesome Cowboys offense.

0:48:30.080 --> 0:48:32.040
<v Speaker 1>And once again you are not on the side of

0:48:32.080 --> 0:48:35.880
<v Speaker 1>the majority eighty two percent taking the Cowboys eighteen percent.

0:48:35.760 --> 0:48:39.480
<v Speaker 2>Which shows just how monumental that move is. Oh yeah,

0:48:39.560 --> 0:48:42.239
<v Speaker 2>if eighty percent are on the Cowboys and the line

0:48:42.239 --> 0:48:43.880
<v Speaker 2>goes from two to three and a.

0:48:43.880 --> 0:48:47.160
<v Speaker 1>Half, yeah, all right, let's go to the Chiefs visiting

0:48:47.200 --> 0:48:50.160
<v Speaker 1>the Ravens Sunday night football. I believe the Ravens are

0:48:50.200 --> 0:48:52.640
<v Speaker 1>now getting three and a half. There were three when

0:48:52.680 --> 0:48:55.520
<v Speaker 1>I checked on Sunday night, I think before the or

0:48:55.560 --> 0:48:57.839
<v Speaker 1>a Monday night before the Ravens game. So getting three

0:48:57.840 --> 0:48:59.680
<v Speaker 1>and a half at home against Chiefs, what do you think?

0:49:00.480 --> 0:49:02.240
<v Speaker 2>I think the best spot here is actually the under.

0:49:03.080 --> 0:49:04.920
<v Speaker 2>I think the last I saw was fifty five to

0:49:05.000 --> 0:49:05.799
<v Speaker 2>fifty five and a half.

0:49:05.920 --> 0:49:07.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the consensus right now is fifty four and a half.

0:49:07.960 --> 0:49:10.160
<v Speaker 2>I don't know that, Okay, So yeah, so it's coming down,

0:49:10.719 --> 0:49:14.680
<v Speaker 2>So my inclinations are coming through there. I think John

0:49:14.719 --> 0:49:17.759
<v Speaker 2>Harbaugh will be smart enough to know that the traditional

0:49:17.800 --> 0:49:20.959
<v Speaker 2>style of blitzing and going ham and throwing the kitchen

0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:23.680
<v Speaker 2>seek at Patrick Mahomes, it's just not going to work.

0:49:24.000 --> 0:49:26.600
<v Speaker 2>So play a little bit back, play some too deep,

0:49:26.719 --> 0:49:28.880
<v Speaker 2>keep things in front of you, keep the pace of

0:49:28.920 --> 0:49:32.400
<v Speaker 2>the game slower. And we know on offense that Baltimore

0:49:32.440 --> 0:49:34.359
<v Speaker 2>is not going to be throwing the ball all over

0:49:34.360 --> 0:49:36.319
<v Speaker 2>the pitch. They don't have the horses to do so.

0:49:36.960 --> 0:49:39.799
<v Speaker 2>And Lamar Jackson's strength is certainly not throwing the ball.

0:49:39.840 --> 0:49:41.040
<v Speaker 2>So I think we're going to see a lot of

0:49:41.080 --> 0:49:46.200
<v Speaker 2>controlled pace running and even on defense, a little less

0:49:46.200 --> 0:49:48.840
<v Speaker 2>aggressiveness from Baltimore. So I think the unders to play

0:49:49.120 --> 0:49:51.280
<v Speaker 2>in this spot. I've just seen this so many times

0:49:51.320 --> 0:49:54.240
<v Speaker 2>where I've wanted to take a good team getting points

0:49:54.280 --> 0:49:56.279
<v Speaker 2>at home against the Chiefs and I've just ended up

0:49:56.280 --> 0:49:57.160
<v Speaker 2>with egg on my face.

0:49:57.239 --> 0:49:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, oh yeah, I can't do it. I think that's

0:49:59.640 --> 0:50:01.520
<v Speaker 1>spread probably a stay away from me. But it's a

0:50:01.520 --> 0:50:03.680
<v Speaker 1>good point on the total, I mean, and I think

0:50:03.680 --> 0:50:05.200
<v Speaker 1>that that's what the Ravens are going to want to,

0:50:05.600 --> 0:50:08.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, do, in order to limit what Mahomes can do.

0:50:08.200 --> 0:50:13.840
<v Speaker 1>Last one Packers at home Monday Night football, eleven point favorites,

0:50:14.120 --> 0:50:16.640
<v Speaker 1>embarrassed by the Saints. What do you think?

0:50:17.560 --> 0:50:19.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean, who's playing corner for the Lions.

0:50:21.920 --> 0:50:23.799
<v Speaker 1>I don't want it. I know Kuda's out for the year,

0:50:23.920 --> 0:50:25.120
<v Speaker 1>it's just it's bad.

0:50:25.680 --> 0:50:28.960
<v Speaker 2>The I think for the season, the Lions, like they

0:50:28.960 --> 0:50:30.840
<v Speaker 2>showed last week, are going to be a team that

0:50:31.000 --> 0:50:33.279
<v Speaker 2>doesn't tend to quit. Right when your head coach is

0:50:33.320 --> 0:50:36.640
<v Speaker 2>the guy biting off kneecaps and taking baseball bat sessions.

0:50:37.120 --> 0:50:38.680
<v Speaker 2>I don't think this is a team that's going to

0:50:38.680 --> 0:50:41.120
<v Speaker 2>be laying over. So I think there's going to be

0:50:41.160 --> 0:50:43.319
<v Speaker 2>a lot of double digit spots for the Lions this

0:50:43.400 --> 0:50:45.680
<v Speaker 2>season where they are the right side, the game is

0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:48.520
<v Speaker 2>a lot closer, and just because they're like three to

0:50:48.640 --> 0:50:50.880
<v Speaker 2>ten or whatever, everyone's still going to be clicking the

0:50:50.880 --> 0:50:53.680
<v Speaker 2>other side while the Lions have like an above average

0:50:53.719 --> 0:50:57.359
<v Speaker 2>ats spread. But this is not the spot. Rogers off

0:50:57.400 --> 0:51:02.719
<v Speaker 2>a loss, completely embarrassed at home Lambeau night game. Yeah,

0:51:03.120 --> 0:51:05.560
<v Speaker 2>you cannot find me clicking the Lions enough. One.

0:51:05.560 --> 0:51:08.399
<v Speaker 1>I'll take the Packers and yeah, there's a backdoor cover possibility.

0:51:08.440 --> 0:51:10.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't care. I will own that. I think that

0:51:10.520 --> 0:51:13.840
<v Speaker 1>this is just gonna be a really really, really really

0:51:13.880 --> 0:51:17.359
<v Speaker 1>angry Packers team, and I think they will learn from

0:51:17.400 --> 0:51:19.600
<v Speaker 1>what they saw last week, which in part was due

0:51:19.640 --> 0:51:21.920
<v Speaker 1>to the fact that they had some injuries on defense

0:51:21.960 --> 0:51:23.919
<v Speaker 1>with the forty nine ers, but in part was due

0:51:23.920 --> 0:51:25.839
<v Speaker 1>to the fact that the Lions just you know, you're

0:51:25.880 --> 0:51:27.320
<v Speaker 1>able to dump it off to the running backs. I

0:51:27.320 --> 0:51:29.759
<v Speaker 1>think they'll know, you know that there are no wide

0:51:29.760 --> 0:51:31.520
<v Speaker 1>receivers that Dared Goff is going to try to throw

0:51:31.560 --> 0:51:33.839
<v Speaker 1>to you. Blanket T J. Hockinson, you have, you know,

0:51:33.880 --> 0:51:36.160
<v Speaker 1>you have guys waiting for those running backs out of

0:51:36.200 --> 0:51:39.040
<v Speaker 1>the backfield. I think that they will hold on beyond

0:51:39.080 --> 0:51:41.359
<v Speaker 1>the back door cover. So I do like the Packers here,

0:51:41.360 --> 0:51:45.720
<v Speaker 1>I lean that way, But yeah, I fear for Detroit

0:51:46.520 --> 0:51:48.920
<v Speaker 1>in that game. Let's very briefly recap what our actual

0:51:49.080 --> 0:51:50.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, our top six picks are. You're taking the

0:51:50.880 --> 0:51:52.840
<v Speaker 1>Panthers getting three and a half again from the Saints.

0:51:53.080 --> 0:51:56.080
<v Speaker 1>You were taking the Jaguars, you brave, Brave sould getting

0:51:56.160 --> 0:51:59.600
<v Speaker 1>six from the Broncos, And you were taking the Texans

0:51:59.600 --> 0:52:03.279
<v Speaker 1>and the branch under forty seven and a half. And

0:52:03.480 --> 0:52:06.399
<v Speaker 1>I am taking the Vikings getting three and a half

0:52:06.440 --> 0:52:08.760
<v Speaker 1>from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half

0:52:09.200 --> 0:52:12.600
<v Speaker 1>from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins getting three and a

0:52:12.640 --> 0:52:15.719
<v Speaker 1>half from the Bills, all underdogs for us. For our

0:52:15.760 --> 0:52:17.920
<v Speaker 1>official picks for the over under I love it. This

0:52:18.000 --> 0:52:20.560
<v Speaker 1>is the week, This is the week for the underdogs,

0:52:20.560 --> 0:52:23.400
<v Speaker 1>for the bounce back, rich to or fantastic guests. I

0:52:23.400 --> 0:52:25.080
<v Speaker 1>missed talking to you. It was good to catch up.

0:52:25.280 --> 0:52:27.479
<v Speaker 1>Remind everybody where they can find you and your work.

0:52:27.920 --> 0:52:30.799
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, great to be here. Grid Iron Gamble, you can

0:52:30.840 --> 0:52:36.160
<v Speaker 2>find it on any podcatter, Spotify, Stitcher, Apple. We do

0:52:36.560 --> 0:52:41.000
<v Speaker 2>our weekly Circa Sports Million selections and then we recap those,

0:52:41.040 --> 0:52:43.120
<v Speaker 2>and we actually do a good recap. Donnie Peters is

0:52:43.160 --> 0:52:46.480
<v Speaker 2>a great recap of the Las Vegas contests as a whole.

0:52:46.520 --> 0:52:49.240
<v Speaker 2>You know who the leaders are, who scored what points

0:52:49.280 --> 0:52:50.399
<v Speaker 2>last week, So check that out.

0:52:50.600 --> 0:52:52.640
<v Speaker 1>How'd you do last week? Out of curiosity in the circa.

0:52:53.120 --> 0:52:55.359
<v Speaker 2>So we have two entries. We went two and three

0:52:55.480 --> 0:52:58.279
<v Speaker 2>on both of them. We had Baltimore minus four to

0:52:58.320 --> 0:53:01.000
<v Speaker 2>close out the week on Monday night. The fact that

0:53:01.040 --> 0:53:03.320
<v Speaker 2>they were up two point two yards for play at halftime,

0:53:03.600 --> 0:53:05.960
<v Speaker 2>which if you if you divide yards for play by

0:53:06.000 --> 0:53:08.520
<v Speaker 2>point one five, you tend to get the amount of

0:53:08.560 --> 0:53:10.799
<v Speaker 2>points that a team should be ahead. So they were

0:53:10.840 --> 0:53:14.560
<v Speaker 2>projected to be ahead sixteen at that they were not.

0:53:15.360 --> 0:53:18.439
<v Speaker 1>They were not. Yeah that stinks, but two and three

0:53:18.440 --> 0:53:20.680
<v Speaker 1>in one of those contests that doesn't bury you whatsoever.

0:53:20.960 --> 0:53:22.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sure, early too, so.

0:53:22.320 --> 0:53:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, especially just avoid the big one and four, zero

0:53:24.560 --> 0:53:26.640
<v Speaker 1>and five weeks should be fine, all right. Anyway, thank

0:53:26.640 --> 0:53:28.319
<v Speaker 1>you so much for coming by. You guys know this

0:53:28.440 --> 0:53:30.200
<v Speaker 1>by now. On Monday, we'll be back taking an early

0:53:30.280 --> 0:53:31.880
<v Speaker 1>look at the lines, and later on we'll have the

0:53:32.000 --> 0:53:35.719
<v Speaker 1>College Football which dropped yesterday college Football podcast breaking down

0:53:36.000 --> 0:53:38.279
<v Speaker 1>each week. Then we follow up with our best bets here.

0:53:38.320 --> 0:53:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Thank you again, download listen anywhere you subscribe to podcasts,

0:53:41.800 --> 0:53:44.400
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, cast box Ley Review as well, and we

0:53:44.440 --> 0:54:04.400
<v Speaker 1>will talk to again in a couple of days.