Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris. Eighty Week two is here. It is time
Speaker 1: to talk about our best bets for the week. And
Speaker 1: here with me to do that is my good friend
Speaker 1: Rich Ryan, co host of The grid Iron Gamble podcast.
Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich It's
Speaker 1: been a while since we've talked. How are you.
Speaker 2: I'm great. I'm in the throes of new fatherhood. I
Speaker 2: have a ten week old. As we discussed pre record,
Speaker 2: That's why I've got the hat on. During quarantine, it
Speaker 2: was acceptable to walk around with insanely long hair, but
Speaker 2: now quote unquote post pandemic, it's not so hiding the hair.
Speaker 2: But happy to be here.
Speaker 1: I think you look great, and obviously I'm a big
Speaker 1: fan of the Mets. Unfortunately we are both Jets fans.
Speaker 1: It is a terrible plight that we have to bear.
Speaker 1: And yet that was the one bet that I nailed
Speaker 1: last week, was the Jets plus five point five against
Speaker 1: the Panthers. There it is all that along. Okay, So
Speaker 1: you guys know how this works. We each are going
Speaker 1: to give our three best bets they could be totals,
Speaker 1: they could be spreads. Whatever you want to do. Then
Speaker 1: we will quickly run through all the rest of just
Speaker 1: the spreads just to talk about whether we have a
Speaker 1: lean or not. But before we do it, let's get
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Speaker 1: betting Pros. Again, if you are a subscriber to that,
Speaker 1: it counts as three additional entries, And again we do
Speaker 1: a Sunday Morning Lives stream over there eleven to twelve.
Speaker 1: We give out some props, we give out some of
Speaker 1: our best bets at well on Sunday. All right, how
Speaker 1: do you feel rich? Are you confident in your picks? Today?
Speaker 2: Kind of week? Just tough. We've got a lot of
Speaker 2: really good teams on the road as short favorites. We've
Speaker 2: got some elite teams at home as massive favorites. But
Speaker 2: I think I've done a decent job of minings from
Speaker 2: some overreactions in week one and hopefully out some winners.
Speaker 1: I think that's always a big one, right, is the
Speaker 1: week one overreaction, avoid the part in week two. That's
Speaker 1: generally my philosophy, which we'll get to in one second.
Speaker 1: We'll start with Rich, we should recap last week, though
Speaker 1: it wasn't a great week. Although our favorite bet with
Speaker 1: Sean Greenho was our guest favorite bet was the Seahawks
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Colts. That was
Speaker 1: Sean's official play. I allowed him to take it because
Speaker 1: he wanted it. That was us. He missed on his
Speaker 1: other one, the Titans minus three, which narrowly missed by
Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteen points, and the Pats minus three
Speaker 1: also missed. There. My official bets after Shawn took Seattle
Speaker 1: was the Deets getting five and a half. You needed
Speaker 1: that half a point and again when it closed, I
Speaker 1: think it was four and a half, but at five
Speaker 1: and a half. It did hit the Titans Cardinals over
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half, which still hurts my soul
Speaker 1: because they were basically midway through the third quarter they
Speaker 1: were at fifty one. I kind of counted that prematurely
Speaker 1: in the win column. And then the Eagles Falcons over
Speaker 1: forty and a half, which just missed on. So there
Speaker 1: you go. Gotta do better this week, Rich, you get
Speaker 1: to start us off. Give it to me your top
Speaker 1: bet of the week.
Speaker 2: So let's go back to the Queen City of Carolina
Speaker 2: where you faded the Carolina Panther. There's last week. Good
Speaker 2: job getting the best of the number there because, like
Speaker 2: you said, you covered by the skin of your teeth.
Speaker 2: But a win is a win is a win is
Speaker 2: a win. And talking about overreactions, the best team last
Speaker 2: week in a national spotlight where the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 2: they come out and they absolutely mollywop the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2: It's a Sean Payton masterclass. He is a tremendous coach.
Speaker 2: You know, I myself coming to the season, I was
Speaker 2: very much questioning New Orleans. I think the remnants of
Speaker 2: Hurricane and Ida kind of pushed me over the edge,
Speaker 2: the fact that they were going to be displaced for
Speaker 2: the first quarter of the season. But maybe I just
Speaker 2: failed to recognize just how much of a tremendous coach
Speaker 2: Sean Payton was putting together such a good team these
Speaker 2: last couple of years with very much a maybe net
Speaker 2: negative at quarterback and Drew Brees, somebody who couldn't push
Speaker 2: the ball downfield. And the first time he gets an
Speaker 2: opportunity to get Jameis Winston under center, I mean he
Speaker 2: lets loose. He sinks you in with play action, gets
Speaker 2: the run game going and then takes deep shots and
Speaker 2: Jamis did that quite well. But I think this line
Speaker 2: is just a little bit too rich for a Saints
Speaker 2: team that let's face it, they do want to play
Speaker 2: a little bit more conservative, both on offense and I
Speaker 2: mean being a good defense. I think they're going to
Speaker 2: be in some more rock fights than people anticipate. And
Speaker 2: the Panthers looked fine last week. Most importantly, they looked
Speaker 2: really good on defense. And I know what you're saying,
Speaker 2: pump the brakes. It's the New York Jets. It's a
Speaker 2: dilapidated offensive line, it's a rookie quarterback. But when you
Speaker 2: can pressure with guys like Brian Burns and you can
Speaker 2: cover in the back, you can have some success in
Speaker 2: this league. On top of that, we're seeing a lot
Speaker 2: of injuries right now for the Saints. Kwan, Alexander, Marcus Davenport,
Speaker 2: Marshawn Lattimore all DNPS on Wednesday. Marshaon Latimore carries a
Speaker 2: doubtful status and we know that about single digit percentage
Speaker 2: players that carry that status end up making it to Sunday.
Speaker 2: On top of that, their IR situation is pretty bad.
Speaker 2: Ken Crawley on the iar is one of the reasons
Speaker 2: why they traded for Bradley Roby last week. No tray
Speaker 2: Quan Smith, of course, no Michael Thomas. So very limited
Speaker 2: on offense, banged up on defense. So I think this
Speaker 2: is gonna be quite a low scoring game. And I
Speaker 2: think the Saints can the Panthers can keep it competitive
Speaker 2: with their receiver corps. I mean, Bradley Roby and Paulson
Speaker 2: Adivo are gonna be in tough situations against three really
Speaker 2: good receivers in Dj Moore, Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall.
Speaker 2: So and Donald, you know, I'm still a Truther eight yards?
Speaker 1: Are you? Are you? Are you like? Are you high
Speaker 1: on him? Long term?
Speaker 2: I think Donald is at minimum a league average quarterback
Speaker 2: and he needs to be rained in. He needed to
Speaker 2: escape Adam Gase.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: And I think the Panthers will be just fine. I
Speaker 2: think this is gonna be a close contested game. I
Speaker 2: could see the Panthers winning outright. I don't think that
Speaker 2: would be too insane. So yeah, give me the Panthers
Speaker 2: plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: If only there were any history of a quarterback looking
Speaker 1: like probably not even fit for the NFL under Adam
Speaker 1: Gase and then escaping and then becoming one of the
Speaker 1: best quarterbacks. We may talk about that. QUI back a
Speaker 1: little bit later. I'm not ready to declare Sam Donald
Speaker 1: below average or above average or average. I don't know
Speaker 1: what Sam Darnold is yet, because again I agree with you,
Speaker 1: I think it's completely unfair to judge him based on
Speaker 1: what happened in New York. I will say to add
Speaker 1: to your point in this game, and I'll get to
Speaker 1: my thoughts very quickly. Is the Saints are also dealing
Speaker 1: with COVID among their coaches, like right, like a lot
Speaker 1: of their coach not Peyton obviously, but a lot of
Speaker 1: their coaching staff is kind of just working on their
Speaker 1: couches right now, doing from home, don't you know, discount
Speaker 1: that impact as well as you get ready for the
Speaker 1: game plan. So there are a lot of signs here.
Speaker 1: And again you know, it's not the quintessential by Loo
Speaker 1: because the Panthers one against the Jets, you know, so
Speaker 1: it's not like your people are down on them or
Speaker 1: anything like that. But you are selling high on the Saints,
Speaker 1: which is what you do in week two when people overreact,
Speaker 1: and for me, Saints played great, but you're absolutely right.
Speaker 1: The number of injuries on defense is really remarkable, and
Speaker 1: the one thing the Panthers can do. They have a
Speaker 1: good offensive system, of course, and they have the three
Speaker 1: wide receivers who you mentioned again. They have DJ Moore,
Speaker 1: they have Robbie Anderson. I liked what I saw of
Speaker 1: Terrest Marshall, and of course they have Christian McCaffrey, probably
Speaker 1: the best, you know, just non quarterback offense player in
Speaker 1: the game right now. So I don't hate it. I
Speaker 1: probably won't bet it just because it scares me, but
Speaker 1: I do think that last week was also sort of
Speaker 1: a weird combination of factors where I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it was very, very hot, and I think the Packers
Speaker 1: probably weren't necessarily prepared for it. They just looked gas
Speaker 1: and out of sort. So I think it was as
Speaker 1: much against the Packers as it was the Saints. So
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. If I had to take a side,
Speaker 1: I would take the Panthers. But I am a little scared.
Speaker 1: And that's funny considering what my number one best bet
Speaker 1: in which is something that you I think we should
Speaker 1: be honest before I told everybody last week Sean and
Speaker 1: I did not exchange picks before. And he came out
Speaker 1: of the gate with seattles or whatever and you and
Speaker 1: I said, you want to exchange picks? And I said, sure, whatever,
Speaker 1: send him over and you hadn't yet this morning, and
Speaker 1: I said, all right, well, these are my three picks.
Speaker 1: I'll get off one if you want. And my first
Speaker 1: pick was the Vikings getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. And do you remember what you wrote back
Speaker 1: to me after I sent.
Speaker 2: You that, Thank the heavens, Thank the heavens that I
Speaker 2: don't have to tout this game and somebody else has
Speaker 2: to because I wanted to trust me. But I will
Speaker 2: run tail between my legs and I will give the
Speaker 2: floor to you. Mister Ayres.
Speaker 1: This is the quintessential game that you look at and
Speaker 1: you say, I have to take this game. But I
Speaker 1: have no interest in taking this game. Like that is
Speaker 1: what this is like. It feels grotesque to even do it.
Speaker 1: But when I was looking at it, I was like,
Speaker 1: you're gonna give me more than a hook. I'm going
Speaker 1: to take it right now. And again, this is a theme,
Speaker 1: and it looks like you're on the same theme. And
Speaker 1: I think if you look historically it bears out, you know,
Speaker 1: it's fruitful that when you fade, generally a lot of
Speaker 1: the big things that you saw. And the Jaguars beat
Speaker 1: the Colts last year in Week.
Speaker 2: One, right never they ever ever won a game ever again.
Speaker 1: And may never again as well. But yeah, that although
Speaker 1: maybe we don't know this week, but regardless, bottom line
Speaker 1: is this, Like the Viking did look bad in this
Speaker 1: game against the Bengals, they still could have won. Obviously.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals looked like absolute world beaters in this game.
Speaker 1: But again, I think it's a little bit of an
Speaker 1: overreaction and spoiler. Like we'll talk about the Titans in
Speaker 1: a little bit because that's another one of my picks.
Speaker 1: But I think a lot of what we saw with
Speaker 1: that Cardinals Titans game is on the Titans, not the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the Cardinals are a very good offensive system.
Speaker 1: Deonder Hopkins is amazing, Climber is incredible, I like Rondell
Speaker 1: Moore what We're going to see a ton of good
Speaker 1: things from them. But I don't think that defense is
Speaker 1: anything close to what it showed. I think that the
Speaker 1: Titans really and I mentioned this before earlier this week,
Speaker 1: actually is that I think that really the Titans, whether
Speaker 1: it was the COVID situation that prevented them from practicing
Speaker 1: a lot, or whether it was just the general injury concerns,
Speaker 1: they just weren't ready for that game and they didn't
Speaker 1: play well, and I expect them to correct it right now.
Speaker 1: So I don't think you're going to see as good
Speaker 1: as Chandler Jones is. I don't think you're going to
Speaker 1: see the team have you know, six sacs or whatever
Speaker 1: they had. Again, I think the defense is going to
Speaker 1: allow points against the Vikings team, by the way, who
Speaker 1: offense can very easy put up points, whether it's through
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook, whether it's through Adam Fieln, who looked like
Speaker 1: he had sort of found the fountain of youth. And
Speaker 1: that's not even talking about Justin Jefferson, pardon me. And
Speaker 1: again kJ Osborne also sort of showed up suddenly. So
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to put up points.
Speaker 1: If you look historically, it's how the Vikings sort of react.
Speaker 1: They're usually played pretty well after a loss to under
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer and really, you know, they had to lose
Speaker 1: a lot of new starters, you know, in their first game.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that corrects itself immediately in the
Speaker 1: second game, but they had a ton of penalties in
Speaker 1: that game. I expect them to probably do better. And
Speaker 1: again their defense. I like their secondar I mean, Patrick
Speaker 1: Peterson maybe a little intel on what they're going to
Speaker 1: see here from Arizona. So this is just a game
Speaker 1: man that this screams to me something of the public
Speaker 1: is going to absolutely hit the Cardinals in this game.
Speaker 1: They're going to love the Cardinals. They're going to fade
Speaker 1: the Vikings, and I just think that the Vikings are
Speaker 1: pretty obviously like the right side to be on. It
Speaker 1: just makes me want to bombit a little bit in
Speaker 1: my mouth to have.
Speaker 2: To make this pick. I mean, you can see it
Speaker 2: on the betting Pro's matchup page. Right eighty three percent
Speaker 2: of people are selecting.
Speaker 1: You looking at the matchups page. That's my guy.
Speaker 2: I know, I'm a chameleon. I know where I'm at.
Speaker 2: We're looking at a two point look ahead that went
Speaker 2: to and through the key number of three, so we're
Speaker 2: getting value there. It opened at four and a half,
Speaker 2: it's already come down, so that means influential money is
Speaker 2: coming in on the Vikings. This is a classic overreaction spot.
Speaker 2: As you noted, Mike Zimmer I think has the coaching advantage.
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins might be a better quarterback. I've never been
Speaker 2: really a Kyler Murray guy. I think he has a
Speaker 2: lot of limitations when it comes to decision making. He
Speaker 2: threw a bone hited interception against Tennessee. I don't know
Speaker 2: if that's going to correct itself, and against a Vikings
Speaker 2: defense that tends to be very aggressive. Mike Zimmer is
Speaker 2: very gap competent, meaning that he designs blitzes to take
Speaker 2: away all to attack all of your weaknesses. And if
Speaker 2: Kyler is pressure in his face, I don't know if
Speaker 2: he's always going to make the best decision given what's
Speaker 2: in front of him. So the thing that does put
Speaker 2: the fear of God to me is the reports that
Speaker 2: Kyler was injured towards the end of last year. So
Speaker 2: maybe some of my negative outlook on the kid is
Speaker 2: the fact that he was actually being a tough SOB
Speaker 2: and playing through a shoulder injury. On top of that,
Speaker 2: speaking of COVID, there's just a dark cloud over Minnesota
Speaker 2: and the kind of tug of war that they're dealing
Speaker 2: with in their locker room and the division that comes
Speaker 2: through COVID when their leader won't get vaccinated, and it's
Speaker 2: putting it's putting a lot of pressure on the organization.
Speaker 2: When the coach wants people to get vaccinated, he's threatening
Speaker 2: the fire coaches that won't get vaccinated and the leader
Speaker 2: of the team, the quarterback, won't take the vack. So
Speaker 2: there's just this cloud that's hanging over Minnesota that has
Speaker 2: me a little bit worried. But you're right, this is
Speaker 2: a classic a one week one overreaction line. Moved an
Speaker 2: insane amount from the look Ahead, and I think you
Speaker 2: just have to blindly click the dog.
Speaker 1: In this spot. It's good. It's a good point on
Speaker 1: the look at You're right, that was it's a big
Speaker 1: move here. And again everybody's still going to be on
Speaker 1: the Cardinals in my guards. Yeah, the books are going
Speaker 1: to be completely happy about that, and you know that
Speaker 1: that's what they want with the way they see it,
Speaker 1: with your point re cousins and and the vaccine. I
Speaker 1: really do think that that is a reason to fade
Speaker 1: them long term on the season. I really do think,
Speaker 1: because I think just given the protocols, forget about anything else.
Speaker 1: The protocols that the NFL has put in means that
Speaker 1: I think it's highly likely that Cousins is gonna miss
Speaker 1: at least a game this season just because he'll be
Speaker 1: a close contact or something and there'll be something that
Speaker 1: he won't be able to get out of. So I
Speaker 1: think long term, I am worried about the vikings for
Speaker 1: one game. In the bounce back spot, I'm holding my nose.
Speaker 1: I want to do it. Let's go to pick number two.
Speaker 1: What do you got?
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, let's keep holding our nose though,
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, more, All right, let's go. We are selecting
Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars plus six at home against the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 2: I'm not that much of a coward. I said it
Speaker 2: was a coward for not clicking the vikings, But this
Speaker 2: is me grabbing my shield and being a hero. Thirty
Speaker 2: percent of folks on betting pros are selecting this team.
Speaker 2: Let's just use some math. Real quick. Homefield advantage is
Speaker 2: about one point nine right now, that's what we're working with.
Speaker 2: So if this game was in Denver, the Broncos would
Speaker 2: be minus ten. So what this is saying is that
Speaker 2: the gap between the Broncos and the Jaguars is only
Speaker 2: one point fewer than the gap between the Packers and
Speaker 2: the Lions, Packers sitting at minus eleven. That doesn't really
Speaker 2: work for me. The Packers are a team with Super
Speaker 2: Bowl aspirations, one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen,
Speaker 2: coming home after a loss playing against the Lions team
Speaker 2: that I know they backdoored if you got the number late,
Speaker 2: but they were absolutely destroyed by the San Francisco forty
Speaker 2: nine ers. Back to back East Coast trips for Denver
Speaker 2: eighty six degrees and rainy is projecting to be fifty
Speaker 2: six percent chance of precipitation. So we're talking about an
Speaker 2: ugly game. And just like the team that I just mentioned,
Speaker 2: the Saints with injuries, the Broncos placed run Darby on IR,
Speaker 2: a big free agent signing for them. Jerry Judy's on
Speaker 2: IR guard Graham Glasgow, experienced heart palpitations during the game,
Speaker 2: went to the hospital after the Giants game didn't travel back.
Speaker 2: With Denver covering six on the road in pro football
Speaker 2: means you're going to go out, get a lead and
Speaker 2: extend the lead, and I just don't trust Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 2: to do that. I know it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I
Speaker 2: know this is something that people out there aren't going
Speaker 2: to run to the window to bet. I know Vic
Speaker 2: Fangio against a rookie quarterback is terrifying, but three point
Speaker 2: look ahead blasts all the way to six. Just like
Speaker 2: what you said about the Minnesota Vikings, I think you
Speaker 2: just have to hold your nose, click the dog, and
Speaker 2: just don't watch. When red zone shows this game, change
Speaker 2: it to QVC or something. Just don't watch a single
Speaker 2: snap in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, QVC, it's going to be better than watching this game,
Speaker 1: is probably correct. Ah. So look, this sort of goes
Speaker 1: to everything that we're saying. I think probably the Jaguars
Speaker 1: strike me as the sharp side. I can't do it, though,
Speaker 1: only because I can't. No, I can't. I mean you're
Speaker 1: I think you're right, just because holy cow, man, like,
Speaker 1: there are disasters in the NFL, and you and I,
Speaker 1: obviously being fans of the Jets, are quite familiar with
Speaker 1: how that works. But I don't know if I've ever
Speaker 1: seen a coach like urban Meyer come in here and
Speaker 1: screw everything up so quickly and just make things worse
Speaker 1: every second of the day. This is bizarro world. I
Speaker 1: think on paper, you're right, this spread is too much
Speaker 1: and the sharp side is the Jaguars, but it really isn't.
Speaker 1: And maybe that's narrative, like maybe that's not something that
Speaker 1: we should consider as better, but it is something I
Speaker 1: have to consider as better. And I don't even know
Speaker 1: what he was doing that, Like, I don't know how
Speaker 1: you come out and you say against the Texans, you go,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna let Trevor Lawrence throw all day right
Speaker 1: from the start, and you're gonna say, I really want
Speaker 1: Carlos Hide to back more than jad Johnson.
Speaker 2: No, James comes in. They have a free running back, right,
Speaker 2: someone that they're not paying anything to. They use first
Speaker 2: round draft equity on Travis Aten, so you feel like
Speaker 2: they're forced into using James Robinson. Okay, they tried to
Speaker 2: make mistake, the mistake was taken away from him, and
Speaker 2: he just starts plunging with Carlos It's.
Speaker 1: So nuts, it's nuts, And look, Carlos side's very capable backup.
Speaker 1: James Robinson did nothing last year to suggest that without
Speaker 1: ETN he needs to be benched or anything. Just maddening. Man.
Speaker 1: So for me, it's just like I could see the
Speaker 1: back door cover. I don't. I don't see a way
Speaker 1: that the Jaguars are gonna win this game. They could, obviously,
Speaker 1: you never know. It's we're avoiding overreactions. This is not
Speaker 1: an O reaction against the Broncos, Like, I don't care
Speaker 1: really what they did against the Giants. I thought they
Speaker 1: looked fine, basically what I expected. But it's something where
Speaker 1: I can't get mentally over the point of just being like,
Speaker 1: I can't voluntarily put money down on the Jaguarts right now,
Speaker 1: which is fair. A team that I can voluntarily put
Speaker 1: money down on is the Titans. We're getting five and
Speaker 1: a half from the Seahawks. They're in Seattle. That's never
Speaker 1: good time. I'm just looking up exactly. So it's it's
Speaker 1: about fifty to fifty right now. Fifty two percent of
Speaker 1: our experts are taking the Seahawks, forty eight percent taking
Speaker 1: the Titans. So let's continue our trend rich of making
Speaker 1: plays that do not make us feel warm and fuzzy
Speaker 1: in this one. We know Seattle's a very difficult place
Speaker 1: to play, and they look great with their new offensive
Speaker 1: scheme last week, and the Titans looked like the worst
Speaker 1: you know team in football. But again this is me really?
Speaker 1: I am really, and maybe I'm overreacting in sort of
Speaker 1: the positive way. I'm basically throwing out everything that we
Speaker 1: saw from the Titans last week. I think it was
Speaker 1: just a we have not practiced whatsoever. I mean, put
Speaker 1: aside everything else. Tannel and Julio Jones literally never practiced,
Speaker 1: like you know, I don't know how many practices I
Speaker 1: actually had together, but the whole team just was not
Speaker 1: ready to play, and that could linger, right. I mean, again,
Speaker 1: you need to catch up. But I also have an
Speaker 1: incredible amount of respect for Mike Rabel as a coach.
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the better coaches in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think he is going to get this team ready
Speaker 1: to play. That you know, Taylor Lwan was obviously terrible.
Speaker 1: I expect him to play better. I think the line
Speaker 1: is going to play better. I think both receivers will
Speaker 1: get more involved. I think you're going to see a
Speaker 1: better game from Dereck Henry. And again, Seattle does not
Speaker 1: have the pass rush, right, they don't have a Chandler
Speaker 1: Jones on their team. Again, they're not going to basically
Speaker 1: be harassing Ryan Tannell. So I think offensively, I think
Speaker 1: the Titans are going to look much much better than
Speaker 1: we saw last week. And again, Seattle was good last week.
Speaker 1: They won that game handily. We figured that they would,
Speaker 1: but that wasn't that far away from being like a
Speaker 1: four point game, Like the Colts could have easily scored
Speaker 1: a touchdown gotten the two point conversion. It's a four
Speaker 1: point win, I mean, even in a game that they
Speaker 1: pretty much dominated. So it's something where I do I
Speaker 1: expect the Seahawks to win. I do, but look, we
Speaker 1: know how the Seahawks have historically played. I mean, look
Speaker 1: at last year.
Speaker 2: They were twelve never a normal game.
Speaker 1: We know that there's every possibility that they will just
Speaker 1: start running the ball. But that but let's say they
Speaker 1: stick with Shane waldron'system. Four of their twelve wins last year,
Speaker 1: only four were by more than one score. Like, if
Speaker 1: you're going they like to play other games, that's just
Speaker 1: what they do. And I think that this one's gonna
Speaker 1: be a close game. Again, if I had to bet,
Speaker 1: it'd be the Seahawks winning by a field goal in
Speaker 1: this game. So I will take the five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to lean with you. I'm a little
Speaker 2: concerned with the Titans defense. But the point you bring
Speaker 2: up last week is very indicative of the Seahawks. It
Speaker 2: was very much a Shane Waldron first half and a
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll second half. Let's salt the lead away, let's
Speaker 2: set the game away, hang on to a lead, get home,
Speaker 2: get prepped for next week when a lot of other
Speaker 2: teams in this league are extending leads and putting teams
Speaker 2: away and again, to cover five, five and a half
Speaker 2: in the NFL, you need to be extending leads and
Speaker 2: not holding on to the rock and salting games away.
Speaker 2: So the biggest problem with the Seahawks last year was
Speaker 2: the fact that when teams started showing them that too deep,
Speaker 2: they had no idea what to do. And Shane Waldron
Speaker 2: did a great job of attacking the Colts last week
Speaker 2: with ebra Flus as a classic two deep team, and
Speaker 2: they absolutely shredded them deep. Will that carry over into
Speaker 2: next week? I think it's possible. I think that the
Speaker 2: whole offseason the Hawks were a team that were getting
Speaker 2: absolutely no love when all they do every single year
Speaker 2: is go out and get double digit wins. Russell Wilson
Speaker 2: is perennially a top five quarterback. Lockett and dk metcalf
Speaker 2: are to one of the best receiver cors in the league.
Speaker 2: And what Pete's done his whole tenure and in Seattle
Speaker 2: is take mid round players with zero pedigree and put
Speaker 2: together a pretty good defense. So I like the spot.
Speaker 2: It worries me a little bit when I start digging
Speaker 2: into the actual teams, because I'm a little bit down
Speaker 2: on the Titans. But You're absolutely right. One of the
Speaker 2: things you want to be doing in the NFL is
Speaker 2: betting on the team that looked the worst last week,
Speaker 2: and the Tennessee Titans were certainly one of those things.
Speaker 2: Just regrets to the mean, these teams are just too talented.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, no, no, I was just wrapping up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, and again, Seattle generally has looked, you know,
Speaker 1: good early on here, and I get like last year
Speaker 1: and I get like their offense looked really good. I
Speaker 1: just this is a bounce back spot for the Titans. Man, Like,
Speaker 1: I cannot imagine that they come out as nearly as
Speaker 1: flas they did. They were embarrassed by that game, like
Speaker 1: for sure, like they need to come here and show something,
Speaker 1: and I just I kind of trust that they will.
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is what it is. This is this
Speaker 1: is a hold your nose week, man, like we're talking
Speaker 1: about it. So do you have a hold your nose
Speaker 1: third pick here for your third best bat?
Speaker 2: Not really. I know a lot of people like to
Speaker 2: bet the over in some of these games, and with
Speaker 2: the record being broken last week with fourth down attempts,
Speaker 2: maybe this season will be in overseason. But I'm circling
Speaker 2: the under forty seven and a half in this Texans
Speaker 2: Browns game on Sunday. It's one of those where if
Speaker 2: you agree with me, you're gonna want to go out
Speaker 2: there and get it now because forty seven is a
Speaker 2: key number and the Cleveland Browns have a couple of
Speaker 2: injuries that the Thursday practice report, which we haven't seen yet,
Speaker 2: could dictate a line move in this spot. Three starting
Speaker 2: offensive linemen on the Browns did not practice yesterday. Jedrick
Speaker 2: Willis was carted off on Sunday against the Chiefs that
Speaker 2: left tackle and his replacement in that game also got hurt.
Speaker 2: So there's a chance that the JC Treader and Jack
Speaker 2: Conklin dnps on Wednesday were just veterans rest Those things
Speaker 2: tend to happen. But we'll get more information here on Thursday,
Speaker 2: and if they are dnps on Thursday, I could certainly
Speaker 2: see this line starting to come down, because in order
Speaker 2: for the Browns to cover a number as big as this,
Speaker 2: and in order for them to get to the over,
Speaker 2: it's going to be the Browns that are scoring in
Speaker 2: this game and putting points on the board. And with
Speaker 2: a broken offensive line, a team that does want to
Speaker 2: run the ball, that has invested as on at the
Speaker 2: running back position is going to be a little bit
Speaker 2: hamstrung to do so. But if you wait for the news,
Speaker 2: then the line's going to start moving. So it's one
Speaker 2: of those where you almost have to be a little
Speaker 2: bit aggressive and get to it before the market starts changing.
Speaker 2: The Texans last week, playing at at home against the Jaguars,
Speaker 2: allowed the fifth highest pressure rate in the entire league.
Speaker 2: The Jaguars do not have a stout defensive line what
Speaker 2: and they didn't send a ton of pressure. I mean,
Speaker 2: their blitz rate was thirty two point four, so top third,
Speaker 2: but nothing like the you know, the fifty percent that
Speaker 2: we saw from the Dolphins and fifty percent we traditionally
Speaker 2: see from the Ravens that we saw a ton of
Speaker 2: on Monday night against the Raiders there. Now they travel
Speaker 2: on the road, they have to block Miles Garrett and
Speaker 2: Jadeveon Clowney and tack McKinley and Malik Jackson. That's not
Speaker 2: gonna be an easy assignment. So I think the Texans
Speaker 2: are going to strugle to score. And if the Browns
Speaker 2: have these offensive line issues and can't get their offense
Speaker 2: going as well, I think we'll see a little bit
Speaker 2: of a controlled rock fight. I think the Browns will
Speaker 2: be just fine, But I think that the under is
Speaker 2: definitely in play, and if you're super brave, I think
Speaker 2: taking the points with Houston might be in play as well.
Speaker 1: This is interesting, Okay, So if that, what if the
Speaker 1: practice reports are positive, I mean, Wills isn't gonna play.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we can assume that. But what
Speaker 1: if the practice reports are positive on the offensive line?
Speaker 1: And are you still good with it? I mean, I
Speaker 1: assume in forty seven and a half, you just think
Speaker 1: that it might drop if it's bad, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: If it's bad. I think this line gets to the
Speaker 2: key number and Nobe even gets a little bit down
Speaker 2: from that, but I don't think it'll ever touch the
Speaker 2: other key of forty four. I mean, that's a precipitous drop, right,
Speaker 2: but I could certainly see it coming off this forty
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I think I'm still comfortable with it.
Speaker 2: It's I think it's fifty to fifty that Tretder and conkline.
Speaker 2: We're just getting veterans rest. But the fact that the
Speaker 2: Browns might be on their third string left tackle is
Speaker 2: certainly not a good thing.
Speaker 1: All right, I don't I don't have a good feel.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember what my we on Monday. We
Speaker 1: do like an opening reactions line. You know what is
Speaker 1: our opening reaction to the line? I don't remember what
Speaker 1: my life I feel like. I like the over, but
Speaker 1: I don't really have a good feel for right now.
Speaker 1: You know, I can see I think the Browns are
Speaker 1: gonna run all day long, which is obviously generally speaking
Speaker 1: good for the under, but I don't have a good
Speaker 1: sense of it. It's actually it's funny because it's it's
Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the people picking on Bettingbros. Dot
Speaker 1: Com are on the over right now, so you're in
Speaker 1: the minority here, which I know you're fine with, right.
Speaker 1: I love being the one, all right, I'm going to go.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to see whether or not I'm in the
Speaker 1: minority or the majority on this one. And it's no
Speaker 1: big I'm just gonna scroll and waste time. Okay, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm in the minority big time on this one. And
Speaker 1: it is the Dolphins getting three and a half against
Speaker 1: the Bills. Seventy nine percent of our experts here are
Speaker 1: taking the Bills, only twenty one percent taking the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I am one of those twenty one percent. This is
Speaker 1: not an overly analytical analysis for this one. And this
Speaker 1: is not a you know, it's sort of the opposite, right,
Speaker 1: like the Bill's lost and the Dolphins one, and so
Speaker 1: you know, blah blah blah. But the bottom line is this.
Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup. It's between two really good teams.
Speaker 1: And I think if you are giving over a field
Speaker 1: goal in a game like this, I'm just gonna take
Speaker 1: the hook. They're in Florida, right That is just very
Speaker 1: especially right now in the summer, Like we know this,
Speaker 1: We've seen it with Tom Brady or whatever. It's sort
Speaker 1: of difficult for road teams to acclimate to that, especially
Speaker 1: when it's really really hot. I think the Bills played
Speaker 1: okay against the Steelers, Steelers have a great defense, but
Speaker 1: I did think that they showed some cracks a little bit.
Speaker 1: You know, their offensive line wasn't really great. It wasn't
Speaker 1: really that great, you know, necessarily last year and now
Speaker 1: last week they met in this exact same spot in
Speaker 1: Miami in Week two it was thirty one twenty eight.
Speaker 1: I can see sort of something. It's different obviously because
Speaker 1: Fitz was there. But I do think that this is
Speaker 1: going to be a close game. I think the Dolphins
Speaker 1: obviously have a very very solid and underrated defense. I
Speaker 1: think zaviy I'm very excited to see Zavian Howard matchup
Speaker 1: against Von Diggs, which I expect in this game, which
Speaker 1: we saw at the end of last year. He did
Speaker 1: a decent job of keeping him under control. But this
Speaker 1: is something where I think it might take a little
Speaker 1: while for the Bills kind of to round back into
Speaker 1: form here. And I think the Dolphins, as much as
Speaker 1: they didn't look explosive as much as we wanted to
Speaker 1: to sort of all right, throw into coverage, like be
Speaker 1: a more of a gun singer, and he wasn't, I
Speaker 1: think they can survive like that. I think this game
Speaker 1: might be a little lower scoring than people expect Will
Speaker 1: Fuller should be back, although I saw that he missed
Speaker 1: practice today for an undisclosed reason. If he's out, that
Speaker 1: might color the way I feel about it. But I
Speaker 1: think that Fuller does add another dimension to this offense.
Speaker 1: DeVante Parker looked great last week as well. Miles Gaskin
Speaker 1: is very solid. Jaalen Waddell had a very nice opening game.
Speaker 1: To me, again, it's not overly analytical. It's just a
Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams that are very solid and
Speaker 1: know each other really well. It strikes me as much
Speaker 1: more of a field goal, so I would take the
Speaker 1: hook either way. But I'm wondering because are so many
Speaker 1: people are on the Bills whether or not you feel
Speaker 1: the same.
Speaker 2: So if we look at home field advantage again being
Speaker 2: one point nine, that says that the Bills would be
Speaker 2: minus seven and a half in the spot against the
Speaker 2: Dolphins a week after being minus six and a half
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. So what the market is telling us
Speaker 2: is that they believe in this spot that the gap
Speaker 2: between the Bills and the Dolphins is one point higher
Speaker 2: than the gap between the Bills and the Steelers. I
Speaker 2: don't know if that's true. Last week. The Bill Steelers
Speaker 2: game was absolutely fascinating because the Steelers blitzed on one play,
Speaker 2: I know, one play. That being said, not every team
Speaker 2: has a TJ. Watt and the Melvin Ingram and the
Speaker 2: horses up front to just send four and be comfortable
Speaker 2: dropping seven back in coverage, which was a headache for
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. Josh Allen eats against blitzes, he eats against
Speaker 2: man coverage. The Dolphins blitz at a fifty percent rate
Speaker 2: last week against the Patriots. Are they going to do
Speaker 2: the same this week? Is Brian Flores going to try
Speaker 2: to send pressure? If he does, I think the Bills
Speaker 2: are certainly going to look more like the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: Bills than they did in Week one. But this is
Speaker 2: I mean, this line to me is just razor sharp.
Speaker 2: I could see the Bills getting back to their old ways, scoring,
Speaker 2: pushing edges, getting the ball downfield, and then what does
Speaker 2: two A do in negative script? That's the biggest issue
Speaker 2: for the Dolphins this season. They have very defined RPO
Speaker 2: style offense. Easy throws, easy decisions for Tua. What happens
Speaker 2: when he's down you know a touchdown plus and he's
Speaker 2: throwing you know four verts and making decisions that last
Speaker 2: year he was very conservative in doing so. So I'm
Speaker 2: going to be a bystander for this game. I think
Speaker 2: it's going to be a very fun game between two
Speaker 2: good teams, and I'll let you be brave in the
Speaker 2: spot and click the dog.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be such an ugly week for us, my friend,
Speaker 1: and not that we're gonna lose. I just mean we're
Speaker 1: gonna be rooting for such, you know, such terrible underdogs here. Okay,
Speaker 1: so you are taking Let's just recap very quickly. At
Speaker 1: the end, Panther is getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Saints, the Jaguars getting six from the Broncos, and
Speaker 1: the Texans, and the Browns going under forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half total points. I am taking the Vikings getting
Speaker 1: three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting
Speaker 1: five and a half from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins
Speaker 1: getting three and a half from Bill's Man. Somebody who's
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast for the first time, they're like,
Speaker 1: these guys some intestinal fortitude. Okay, how about let's run
Speaker 1: through very quickly the rest of the game. We talked
Speaker 1: about the over runner. Obviously on the Browns and Texans.
Speaker 1: But what do you think about the fact that the
Speaker 1: Browns are laying twelve and a half points here doesn't
Speaker 1: matter with you what happens with the offensive lineman or what.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think So what's interesting is the look ahead
Speaker 2: was thirteen, So the Texans got some respect for the
Speaker 2: fact that they went out and won the game out
Speaker 2: right last week. Granted it's a half point of respect,
Speaker 2: not towards or off of a key number. But if
Speaker 2: those two players in Treder and Conklin are dnps today, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm definitely leaning the points in the spot, thinking that
Speaker 2: it's going to be a low scoring affair, that Tyrod Taylor,
Speaker 2: the veteran that he is, can navigate the Texans to
Speaker 2: a non blowout in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm betting for It's pretty split. Fifty six percent
Speaker 1: or taking the Browns, forty four percent are taking the Texans.
Speaker 1: I don't think I've made a pick yet on this game.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how I feel about it. If I do,
Speaker 1: you know, dabble, it'll probably be the last minute. But
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it, so it's
Speaker 1: a stay away from me. How about the Bears laying
Speaker 1: two and a half at home against the Bengals, and
Speaker 1: I think it was three when I looked at it
Speaker 1: earlier in the week, so it must have dropped half
Speaker 1: a point. What do you think here about two and
Speaker 1: a half?
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of shop money came in on the
Speaker 2: Bengals earlier in the week. I've actually seen this as
Speaker 2: low as one at some books. I think you have
Speaker 2: to just take the Bears sub a field goal. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I believe the look ahead in this spot was above
Speaker 2: a field goal. If I'm not correct, let me just
Speaker 2: pull it up here. Ye, look ahead was four and
Speaker 2: a half. So that's a very large move too, and
Speaker 2: through a key number. Again, it is influential money that's
Speaker 2: making this move. But we're buying the Bengals off of
Speaker 2: a massive underdog win, and we're selling the Bears against
Speaker 2: losing against potentially the best team in the NFC. I'm
Speaker 2: very bullish on the Los Angeles Rams. I think the
Speaker 2: addition of Stafford is massive to McVeigh. More importantly, I
Speaker 2: think what the Rams have done on defense the last
Speaker 2: two years is something that is going to become more
Speaker 2: prevalent and more understood. The athletic had a tremendous article
Speaker 2: about Brandon Staley and what he's done with the two
Speaker 2: deep defense and how he's adapted it to almost be
Speaker 2: basically the how McVeigh uses eleven on offense. You show
Speaker 2: one luck and you can do multiple things out of it.
Speaker 2: The way that Brandon Staley is treating two deep coverage
Speaker 2: on defense is something that I think is going to
Speaker 2: take the league by storm. And I think the Rams
Speaker 2: have a massive edge on defense, and the Chargers do
Speaker 2: now as well with Stalely as head coach. So I'm
Speaker 2: not going to fault the Bears for getting blasted out
Speaker 2: of the water from a Rams team that was opening
Speaker 2: up a brand new stadium in prime time. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I just think short of a field goal, you have
Speaker 2: to take the Bears.
Speaker 1: In the spot. I agree with you. I agree with
Speaker 1: you here. I mean, I really do think now that
Speaker 1: it's dropped under a field goal, like the Bears at home,
Speaker 1: their defense is still strong. I mean, and Galton didn't
Speaker 1: you know, I didn't push the ball down the field,
Speaker 1: but didn't play that poorly against a very very tough defense.
Speaker 1: Dave Montgomery looked great. Yeah, and you know you got
Speaker 1: the Bengals played well. I was impressed with Jamar Chase.
Speaker 1: Certainly in the opening game, I was impressed with Burrow,
Speaker 1: but even Burrow has been complaining a little bit about
Speaker 1: how sore his knee is like after that, which is
Speaker 1: just natural. I think I agree with you. Now that's
Speaker 1: under a field goal, I would lean the Bears. How
Speaker 1: about the Eagles, which were again earlier in the week
Speaker 1: getting three and a half. They're now just getting three
Speaker 1: from the forty nine ers in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: So one of my twenty twenty one goals is to
Speaker 2: be a little less stubborn, at least try to be
Speaker 2: a little less stubborn. And I came into the season
Speaker 2: with very very negative connotations towards the Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe
Speaker 2: the Nick Sirianni press conference colored my analysis a little
Speaker 2: bit too much. Certainly Jalen Hurts' inability to play the
Speaker 2: quarterback position last year colored my analysis. But I have
Speaker 2: to give them so much credit for what they did
Speaker 2: last week. They gave Jalen Hurts as many easy throws
Speaker 2: as possible and a dodd of three point seven. Let's
Speaker 2: not make him diagnose the field go through multiple reads.
Speaker 2: Let's get these very fast, skilled position players the ball
Speaker 2: at the line skirmage and let Jalen Hurs play some
Speaker 2: Reid option. They got Kenneth Gainwell involved early. You know,
Speaker 2: a lot of teams would just trot Boston Scott out
Speaker 2: the veteran, give him those passing down touches. They took
Speaker 2: the kid and they said, you know what, we think
Speaker 2: he's talented. We saw a lot of him in training camp.
Speaker 2: He got thirty three percent of the snaps. So maybe
Speaker 2: Sirianni's a little sharper than I gave him credit for.
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, with Philadelphia being so stout
Speaker 2: on both offensive and defensive line and some of these
Speaker 2: injuries for the Niners, Eric Armstead, Drake Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw
Speaker 2: all DNPS yesterday, this line might be a little bit
Speaker 2: too rich. I'm very bullsh on the Niners. I think
Speaker 2: the Niners are going to have a tremendous season. Yeah massive,
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan, Stan, But you know, this might just be
Speaker 2: a little bit too rich for a West Coast team. Travelings.
Speaker 1: I liked it at three and a half. At three,
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm staying away. I look, I was somebody
Speaker 1: who you know, you know I do fantasy, obviously, I
Speaker 1: do fantasy projections as well. But I was big unhurt
Speaker 1: this whole year, and I was sort of like, well,
Speaker 1: worst case scenario, it's going to be his legs and
Speaker 1: he'll be fine. But I was hoping that what we
Speaker 1: would see is that you have an entire off season,
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, rumors be damned. You have an entire off
Speaker 1: season to devote yourself to creating an offense that revolves
Speaker 1: around Jalen Hurts. The skill set that is exactly what
Speaker 1: they did. And their offensive line played really well. Their
Speaker 1: defensive line as solid as we know. So I think
Speaker 1: the Eagles there's a lot of reason to be optimistic
Speaker 1: with that said, I don't know yet. I need, you know,
Speaker 1: beating up on an Atlanta team that just looked terrible.
Speaker 1: You know, I need to see it again here against
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, which is why I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: But I would take it at three and a half.
Speaker 1: You can find it out there. I know that it's
Speaker 1: still lingering out there at some books. I would take
Speaker 1: that at three. I think it's a stay away. But
Speaker 1: I misspoke there.
Speaker 2: Sorry. The Niners did of course, Shannon had did the
Speaker 2: smart thing they see. They stayed East after the Detroit
Speaker 2: game last week, so no long road trip.
Speaker 1: It's still though, I mean, it still is, like I
Speaker 1: know they do that living in It's still a big
Speaker 1: deal if you stay out east like I realized, Like okay, good,
Speaker 1: but really it's still a big, a big move. This
Speaker 1: one's interesting. It's not surprising to me that the betting
Speaker 1: experts have made the picks that way they have. The
Speaker 1: Rams are visiting the Colts. The Rams are currently three
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Ninety percent of the picks
Speaker 1: coming in on the Rams. Are you with them as
Speaker 1: a buyer of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford?
Speaker 2: Ah, this is tough, yep, could because a lot of
Speaker 2: the stuff we just talked about was overreaction correct. How
Speaker 2: do we take advantage of that in week two? And
Speaker 2: naturally you would want to take the Colts and the
Speaker 2: points in this spot, But I don't know if I
Speaker 2: can do it. I think I just and that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean I'm going to click the Rams in the spot.
Speaker 2: It just thinks I'm going to stay on the sideline
Speaker 2: for this game. But what this line is saying is
Speaker 2: that the Rams are a point better than the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Which you know is probably right. So this is probably
Speaker 2: a fair line. And yeah, I think I think if
Speaker 2: you like the Colts, you're believing in Aberflus coming out
Speaker 2: and playing great defense, right the Colts not. Their biggest
Speaker 2: trend in the last couple of years was to play
Speaker 2: a very strong, two deep defense, keep everything in front
Speaker 2: of you. I'll never forget they went to Arrowhead two
Speaker 2: years ago. They were ten point dogs. They went in
Speaker 2: on a Sunday night, beat them out right because they
Speaker 2: didn't give Tyreek or any of these chiefs weapons the
Speaker 2: opportunity to get down the field, kept everything in front
Speaker 2: of them and were able to win a little bit
Speaker 2: of a rock fight. And that's the Colts calling card.
Speaker 2: If they can do that. The Rams don't have a
Speaker 2: great running game, they don't really have a great run
Speaker 2: blocking offensive line. They can make this game a little ugly.
Speaker 2: But you know, if the Rams can mimic what their
Speaker 2: former coach did last week and attack these guys deep,
Speaker 2: then they're gonna have some success. So I can see
Speaker 2: a lot of outcomes here. I'm just gonna stay on
Speaker 2: the sideline.
Speaker 1: This is a git. We see so much the same way,
Speaker 1: which is I think like realistically, you look at and
Speaker 1: you're like, well, everything says you probably should take the
Speaker 1: Colts in this game, just for the very reasons that
Speaker 1: you and I have talked about nonstuff, and yet we
Speaker 1: want to take the Rams because we both are buyers
Speaker 1: on the Rams and things they looked incredible, and yet
Speaker 1: neither one of us can really pull that trigger either way.
Speaker 1: So I I'm going to stand inside. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised to see the Rams win by a touchdown, but
Speaker 1: it's something where I'm going to stay away from. How
Speaker 1: about the Steelers at home Link six against the Raiders
Speaker 1: on the short week.
Speaker 2: TRYE traditionally a terrible stot spot for the Raiders short
Speaker 2: week west to East. This Raiders offensive line is bad
Speaker 2: and they still have Ritchie and Cognitio on the injury report.
Speaker 2: Now they have to go block the Pittsburgh Steelers, who,
Speaker 2: unlike the Ravens, don't have to send pressure because just
Speaker 2: like they did against the Bills, they can generate a
Speaker 2: pass rush with four Minka Fitzpatrick is one of the
Speaker 2: few players in the league where you can put him
Speaker 2: on Darren Waller, and I don't think anybody can stop
Speaker 2: Darren Waller. Those crossers are absolutely lethal, probably unguardable. But
Speaker 2: the job that Fitzpatrick did last week against Cole Beasley,
Speaker 2: and you might scoff off, you know, Cole Beasley slock guy.
Speaker 2: But Cole is very slippery in the slot and a
Speaker 2: great route runner, and Fitzpatrick did a hell of a
Speaker 2: job on him. So He's going to be able to
Speaker 2: at least anoy Waller in this game and force car
Speaker 2: and the Raiders offense to go elsewhere. Six is pretty rich, though,
Speaker 2: five and a half now I'm seeing five in some spots.
Speaker 2: So do we trust the Pittsburgh defense to keep this
Speaker 2: super low? Yes? But do we trust Big Ben and
Speaker 2: that arm and the prayers that he tends to throw
Speaker 2: at Deantay Johnson and Chase Claypool to establish a lead
Speaker 2: and extend the lead? I don't think so. So gun
Speaker 2: to my head, I think I'm taking the points and
Speaker 2: hoping that Derek Carr can can generate some offense against
Speaker 2: this tremendous pass rush.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is pretty split down the middle, fifty three
Speaker 1: percent on the Raiders forty seven percent of the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I am taking neither for sure. This is a classic
Speaker 1: Tomlin like letdown spot. Like you got to be an underdog,
Speaker 1: you gotta be on the road. Nobody believes that's for
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin. When you're a favorite by nearly a touchdown
Speaker 1: at home, with everything being like, ah, you should win
Speaker 1: this man, you'll be all right, it's like, nah, run away.
Speaker 1: So but I can bring myself to take the Raiders
Speaker 1: here for the you mentioned, it's just very top on
Speaker 1: this short week. It's not like a good match in
Speaker 1: terms of the ability of the Steelers to get pressure
Speaker 1: without bringing the blitz. So just to stay away from me.
Speaker 1: But I guess gun to my head, like you said,
Speaker 1: I would be on the Raiders. But thankfully there is
Speaker 1: no gun to my head. So let's go onto the
Speaker 1: Patriots visiting our jets. The spread has climbed to six
Speaker 1: Jets getting six eighty two percent of the people taking
Speaker 1: the Patriots, eighteen percent taking the Jets.
Speaker 2: What do you think, Congratulations if you grab the Patriots
Speaker 2: ticket Sunday night Monday morning, Very good job by you,
Speaker 2: because yes, this has steamed in the direction of the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I don't know how high it has to get for
Speaker 2: me to take the Jets. I don't think it's high enough.
Speaker 2: But I don't think I'm taking Mac Jones on the
Speaker 2: road at this number either. I did really like the
Speaker 2: three and a half. I thought that was a pretty
Speaker 2: good selection. The big issue is just this Jets offensive
Speaker 2: line with becked and out. I mean, what is Matthew
Speaker 2: Judon going to do to this offensive line? Zach Wilson
Speaker 2: is gonna have pressure in his face the entire game.
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks do so. I think
Speaker 2: Sala will do a decent job against a rookie quarterback
Speaker 2: in his own, but he just doesn't have the horses
Speaker 2: that Belichick has. I mean, you go out and you
Speaker 2: sign LaMarcus Joyner. He plays nine snaps. I mean Karl
Speaker 2: Lawson plays zero snaps. And now you've just got Bryce
Speaker 2: Hall and a cast of misfits back cornerback. So tough spot.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's high enough to take the Jets.
Speaker 2: So I guess I'm leaning Patriots. But yeah, this is
Speaker 2: gonna be an ugly affair amount life.
Speaker 1: Yeah, staying away at six points too much like that.
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. Like the Patriots should win this game.
Speaker 1: It should probably it should not be threatened, but six
Speaker 1: points is too much for mac Jones on the rock
Speaker 1: just interest is like, there's just no way, and you're right,
Speaker 1: you got it early. That's great, but right now I
Speaker 1: can't hopefully, you know, the floor designs something to get
Speaker 1: around the fact that their offensive line is you and
Speaker 1: me basically playing at this point, which is crazy with
Speaker 1: how much they've invested into this offensive line. But it's
Speaker 1: going to be bad. So but I'm saying away again
Speaker 1: just because it can't go with mac Jones lay in six.
Speaker 1: How about another big spread here, A couple of big
Speaker 1: spreads this week. Bucks playing twelve and a half to
Speaker 1: the Falcons at home.
Speaker 2: Is Arthur Smith a fraud?
Speaker 1: I don't think we're not ready to call that after
Speaker 1: a game. It didn't look good that first game, but you.
Speaker 2: Know, they were so unprepared. They ran the ball so
Speaker 2: frequently on first down despite having such little success up front,
Speaker 2: getting pushed and trailing. That was puzzling. Everything that I
Speaker 2: saw out of the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was absolutely puzzling.
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan is not somebody who could get back there
Speaker 2: and move around. There were assignments blown up front by
Speaker 2: the offensive line. This is a terrifying spot for a
Speaker 2: Bucks team. That has extra rest and the defensive strength
Speaker 2: up front that we saw. You know, the Cowboys have
Speaker 2: a really good defensive offensive line. For sure, they were
Speaker 2: missing Zach Martine, but you know they're a solid outfit,
Speaker 2: and the Bucks were still getting pressure in that spot.
Speaker 2: So I can only imagine what's going to happen when
Speaker 2: the Bucks defense starts eating against this Atlanta offensive line.
Speaker 2: And what is this Atlanta defense going to do against
Speaker 2: Tom Brady in this Bucks offense. So I think the
Speaker 2: move look ahead with eight moves to twelve, I think
Speaker 2: the move is justified. And I mean I could see
Speaker 2: the Bucks winning this game by a very very healthy amount.
Speaker 2: I'm very concerned with Arthur Smith as the coach of
Speaker 2: the Falcons.
Speaker 1: Guns. In my head, it's the Bucks in this one.
Speaker 1: But I also can't lay twelve and a half at
Speaker 1: this point like I can't, because that to me strikes
Speaker 1: me as a You look at the Falcons. The Falcons
Speaker 1: looked like they were the worst team in the league
Speaker 1: in that game. They looked terrible, they looked terribly coached,
Speaker 1: they didn't have the personnel. I'm not ready to say
Speaker 1: that's exactly what we're going to see. Your rest of season,
Speaker 1: just for the same reason we're talking about everything. But
Speaker 1: it looked horrific, and we do know that the Bucks
Speaker 1: are going to put up a ton of points because
Speaker 1: the Bucks had the exact same personnel that they had
Speaker 1: last year. They did it against the Cowboys, So I
Speaker 1: lean Bucks, But twelve and a half, I need to
Speaker 1: see it again. If they look like that again the Falcons,
Speaker 1: I'm fully running hard away and just whatever look aheadline
Speaker 1: I can get on against the Falcons I will take
Speaker 1: now because it's just gonna climb. How about the Chargers,
Speaker 1: which are now laying three and a half at home
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. This was three earlier in the week
Speaker 1: when I.
Speaker 2: Looked big injuries for the Cowboys are at least one big
Speaker 2: injury with DeMarcus Lawrence and now this Lyle Collins suspension.
Speaker 2: You get back Zach Martin, but you lose your left tackle.
Speaker 2: That's never a good thing. I think people are going
Speaker 2: to be enamored with the Cowboys and their offense and
Speaker 2: the stories coming out that Dak was a great decision maker,
Speaker 2: which he was on the Thursday opener audibling out of
Speaker 2: I think more than half of the run calls that
Speaker 2: kellenm Moore put out there, put the Cowboys into good spots,
Speaker 2: was throwing the ball all over the field, did a
Speaker 2: great job. But I don't know in this spot. I'm
Speaker 2: again very bullish on the Chargers, and I was surprised
Speaker 2: last week so GridION Garible. We play in the Circus
Speaker 2: Sports million contests and the Washington football team was a
Speaker 2: top five popular pick last week, and that was puzzling
Speaker 2: to me. I just think the Chargers team is really good.
Speaker 2: Herbert is already I think a top ten quarterback. He
Speaker 2: just stands in there on those third downs, makes really
Speaker 2: tough throws, throws outside the number he can make, and
Speaker 2: Lombardy is going to be able to put him in
Speaker 2: positions that Anthony Lynn didn't last year in scheming up
Speaker 2: a better offensive plan than with the former charge head
Speaker 2: coach was able to do. I don't love the line
Speaker 2: move again. This is another one where hey, if you
Speaker 2: got out Sunday night Monday morning, you grab the two,
Speaker 2: you grab the two before this got two and above three. Congratulations.
Speaker 2: But I still think that if you were to make
Speaker 2: me select the side here, it would be the Chargers. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think that. Yeah, I think the Dallas defense is
Speaker 2: that bad and that Brandon Staley will just be able
Speaker 2: to do enough to limit this awesome Cowboys offense.
Speaker 1: And once again you are not on the side of
Speaker 1: the majority eighty two percent taking the Cowboys eighteen percent.
Speaker 2: Which shows just how monumental that move is. Oh yeah,
Speaker 2: if eighty percent are on the Cowboys and the line
Speaker 2: goes from two to three and a.
Speaker 1: Half, yeah, all right, let's go to the Chiefs visiting
Speaker 1: the Ravens Sunday night football. I believe the Ravens are
Speaker 1: now getting three and a half. There were three when
Speaker 1: I checked on Sunday night, I think before the or
Speaker 1: a Monday night before the Ravens game. So getting three
Speaker 1: and a half at home against Chiefs, what do you think?
Speaker 2: I think the best spot here is actually the under.
Speaker 2: I think the last I saw was fifty five to
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus right now is fifty four and a half.
Speaker 2: I don't know that, Okay, So yeah, so it's coming down,
Speaker 2: So my inclinations are coming through there. I think John
Speaker 2: Harbaugh will be smart enough to know that the traditional
Speaker 2: style of blitzing and going ham and throwing the kitchen
Speaker 2: seek at Patrick Mahomes, it's just not going to work.
Speaker 2: So play a little bit back, play some too deep,
Speaker 2: keep things in front of you, keep the pace of
Speaker 2: the game slower. And we know on offense that Baltimore
Speaker 2: is not going to be throwing the ball all over
Speaker 2: the pitch. They don't have the horses to do so.
Speaker 2: And Lamar Jackson's strength is certainly not throwing the ball.
Speaker 2: So I think we're going to see a lot of
Speaker 2: controlled pace running and even on defense, a little less
Speaker 2: aggressiveness from Baltimore. So I think the unders to play
Speaker 2: in this spot. I've just seen this so many times
Speaker 2: where I've wanted to take a good team getting points
Speaker 2: at home against the Chiefs and I've just ended up
Speaker 2: with egg on my face.
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, I can't do it. I think that's
Speaker 1: spread probably a stay away from me. But it's a
Speaker 1: good point on the total, I mean, and I think
Speaker 1: that that's what the Ravens are going to want to,
Speaker 1: you know, do, in order to limit what Mahomes can do.
Speaker 1: Last one Packers at home Monday Night football, eleven point favorites,
Speaker 1: embarrassed by the Saints. What do you think?
Speaker 2: I mean, who's playing corner for the Lions.
Speaker 1: I don't want it. I know Kuda's out for the year,
Speaker 1: it's just it's bad.
Speaker 2: The I think for the season, the Lions, like they
Speaker 2: showed last week, are going to be a team that
Speaker 2: doesn't tend to quit. Right when your head coach is
Speaker 2: the guy biting off kneecaps and taking baseball bat sessions.
Speaker 2: I don't think this is a team that's going to
Speaker 2: be laying over. So I think there's going to be
Speaker 2: a lot of double digit spots for the Lions this
Speaker 2: season where they are the right side, the game is
Speaker 2: a lot closer, and just because they're like three to
Speaker 2: ten or whatever, everyone's still going to be clicking the
Speaker 2: other side while the Lions have like an above average
Speaker 2: ats spread. But this is not the spot. Rogers off
Speaker 2: a loss, completely embarrassed at home Lambeau night game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you cannot find me clicking the Lions enough. One.
Speaker 1: I'll take the Packers and yeah, there's a backdoor cover possibility.
Speaker 1: I don't care. I will own that. I think that
Speaker 1: this is just gonna be a really really, really really
Speaker 1: angry Packers team, and I think they will learn from
Speaker 1: what they saw last week, which in part was due
Speaker 1: to the fact that they had some injuries on defense
Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers, but in part was due
Speaker 1: to the fact that the Lions just you know, you're
Speaker 1: able to dump it off to the running backs. I
Speaker 1: think they'll know, you know that there are no wide
Speaker 1: receivers that Dared Goff is going to try to throw
Speaker 1: to you. Blanket T J. Hockinson, you have, you know,
Speaker 1: you have guys waiting for those running backs out of
Speaker 1: the backfield. I think that they will hold on beyond
Speaker 1: the back door cover. So I do like the Packers here,
Speaker 1: I lean that way, But yeah, I fear for Detroit
Speaker 1: in that game. Let's very briefly recap what our actual
Speaker 1: you know, our top six picks are. You're taking the
Speaker 1: Panthers getting three and a half again from the Saints.
Speaker 1: You were taking the Jaguars, you brave, Brave sould getting
Speaker 1: six from the Broncos, And you were taking the Texans
Speaker 1: and the branch under forty seven and a half. And
Speaker 1: I am taking the Vikings getting three and a half
Speaker 1: from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half
Speaker 1: from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins getting three and a
Speaker 1: half from the Bills, all underdogs for us. For our
Speaker 1: official picks for the over under I love it. This
Speaker 1: is the week, This is the week for the underdogs,
Speaker 1: for the bounce back, rich to or fantastic guests. I
Speaker 1: missed talking to you. It was good to catch up.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they can find you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great to be here. Grid Iron Gamble, you can
Speaker 2: find it on any podcatter, Spotify, Stitcher, Apple. We do
Speaker 2: our weekly Circa Sports Million selections and then we recap those,
Speaker 2: and we actually do a good recap. Donnie Peters is
Speaker 2: a great recap of the Las Vegas contests as a whole.
Speaker 2: You know who the leaders are, who scored what points
Speaker 2: last week, So check that out.
Speaker 1: How'd you do last week? Out of curiosity in the circa.
Speaker 2: So we have two entries. We went two and three
Speaker 2: on both of them. We had Baltimore minus four to
Speaker 2: close out the week on Monday night. The fact that
Speaker 2: they were up two point two yards for play at halftime,
Speaker 2: which if you if you divide yards for play by
Speaker 2: point one five, you tend to get the amount of
Speaker 2: points that a team should be ahead. So they were
Speaker 2: projected to be ahead sixteen at that they were not.
Speaker 1: They were not. Yeah that stinks, but two and three
Speaker 1: in one of those contests that doesn't bury you whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, early too, so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially just avoid the big one and four, zero
Speaker 1: and five weeks should be fine, all right. Anyway, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for coming by. You guys know this
Speaker 1: by now. On Monday, we'll be back taking an early
Speaker 1: look at the lines, and later on we'll have the
Speaker 1: College Football which dropped yesterday college Football podcast breaking down
Speaker 1: each week. Then we follow up with our best bets here.
Speaker 1: Thank you again, download listen anywhere you subscribe to podcasts,
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, cast box Ley Review as well, and we
Speaker 1: will talk to again in a couple of days.