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Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris. Eighty Week two is here. It is time

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Speaker 1: to talk about our best bets for the week. And

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Speaker 1: here with me to do that is my good friend

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Speaker 1: Rich Ryan, co host of The grid Iron Gamble podcast.

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Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich It's

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Speaker 1: been a while since we've talked. How are you.

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Speaker 2: I'm great. I'm in the throes of new fatherhood. I

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Speaker 2: have a ten week old. As we discussed pre record,

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Speaker 2: That's why I've got the hat on. During quarantine, it

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Speaker 2: was acceptable to walk around with insanely long hair, but

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Speaker 2: now quote unquote post pandemic, it's not so hiding the hair.

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Speaker 2: But happy to be here.

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Speaker 1: I think you look great, and obviously I'm a big

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Speaker 1: fan of the Mets. Unfortunately we are both Jets fans.

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Speaker 1: It is a terrible plight that we have to bear.

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Speaker 1: And yet that was the one bet that I nailed

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Speaker 1: last week, was the Jets plus five point five against

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. There it is all that along. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: you guys know how this works. We each are going

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Speaker 1: to give our three best bets they could be totals,

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Speaker 1: they could be spreads. Whatever you want to do. Then

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Speaker 1: we will quickly run through all the rest of just

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Speaker 1: the spreads just to talk about whether we have a

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Speaker 1: lean or not. But before we do it, let's get

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Speaker 1: to some housekeeping items, including a new offer from our sponsor,

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Speaker 1: want it on that it's the code Juice one hundred.

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Speaker 1: Juice one hundred. That is again the Daily Juice that

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Speaker 1: is one of our betting podcasts. That's where the juice

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Speaker 1: comes from. But the code is Juice one hundred. Again,

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Speaker 1: pick a side, pick a money line, pick a total,

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Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. If either team scores a touchdown, regardless

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Speaker 1: of it, the team you bet on wins the game,

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Speaker 1: juice one hundred. And for new users at bet MGM, second,

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Speaker 1: let me remind you of our giveaway. It's assigned to

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Speaker 1: a tongue of I loaded jersey entry is very simple.

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Speaker 1: Leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast box,

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Speaker 1: and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review.

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Speaker 1: If you are a subscriber to our YouTube channel where

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Speaker 1: you can watch this podcast. If you want to see

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Speaker 1: Rich's glorious hair, then it's at YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: betting Pros. Again, if you are a subscriber to that,

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Speaker 1: it counts as three additional entries, And again we do

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Speaker 1: a Sunday Morning Lives stream over there eleven to twelve.

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Speaker 1: We give out some props, we give out some of

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Speaker 1: our best bets at well on Sunday. All right, how

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Speaker 1: do you feel rich? Are you confident in your picks? Today?

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Speaker 2: Kind of week? Just tough. We've got a lot of

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Speaker 2: really good teams on the road as short favorites. We've

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Speaker 2: got some elite teams at home as massive favorites. But

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Speaker 2: I think I've done a decent job of minings from

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Speaker 2: some overreactions in week one and hopefully out some winners.

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Speaker 1: I think that's always a big one, right, is the

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Speaker 1: week one overreaction, avoid the part in week two. That's

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Speaker 1: generally my philosophy, which we'll get to in one second.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with Rich, we should recap last week, though

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a great week. Although our favorite bet with

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Speaker 1: Sean Greenho was our guest favorite bet was the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Colts. That was

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Speaker 1: Sean's official play. I allowed him to take it because

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Speaker 1: he wanted it. That was us. He missed on his

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Speaker 1: other one, the Titans minus three, which narrowly missed by

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteen points, and the Pats minus three

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Speaker 1: also missed. There. My official bets after Shawn took Seattle

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Speaker 1: was the Deets getting five and a half. You needed

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Speaker 1: that half a point and again when it closed, I

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Speaker 1: think it was four and a half, but at five

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Speaker 1: and a half. It did hit the Titans Cardinals over

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Speaker 1: fifty two and a half, which still hurts my soul

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Speaker 1: because they were basically midway through the third quarter they

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Speaker 1: were at fifty one. I kind of counted that prematurely

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Speaker 1: in the win column. And then the Eagles Falcons over

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Speaker 1: forty and a half, which just missed on. So there

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Speaker 1: you go. Gotta do better this week, Rich, you get

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Speaker 1: to start us off. Give it to me your top

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Speaker 1: bet of the week.

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Speaker 2: So let's go back to the Queen City of Carolina

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Speaker 2: where you faded the Carolina Panther. There's last week. Good

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Speaker 2: job getting the best of the number there because, like

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Speaker 2: you said, you covered by the skin of your teeth.

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Speaker 2: But a win is a win is a win is

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Speaker 2: a win. And talking about overreactions, the best team last

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Speaker 2: week in a national spotlight where the New Orleans Saints

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Speaker 2: they come out and they absolutely mollywop the Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 2: It's a Sean Payton masterclass. He is a tremendous coach.

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Speaker 2: You know, I myself coming to the season, I was

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Speaker 2: very much questioning New Orleans. I think the remnants of

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Speaker 2: Hurricane and Ida kind of pushed me over the edge,

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Speaker 2: the fact that they were going to be displaced for

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Speaker 2: the first quarter of the season. But maybe I just

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Speaker 2: failed to recognize just how much of a tremendous coach

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Speaker 2: Sean Payton was putting together such a good team these

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Speaker 2: last couple of years with very much a maybe net

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Speaker 2: negative at quarterback and Drew Brees, somebody who couldn't push

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Speaker 2: the ball downfield. And the first time he gets an

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Speaker 2: opportunity to get Jameis Winston under center, I mean he

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Speaker 2: lets loose. He sinks you in with play action, gets

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Speaker 2: the run game going and then takes deep shots and

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Speaker 2: Jamis did that quite well. But I think this line

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Speaker 2: is just a little bit too rich for a Saints

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Speaker 2: team that let's face it, they do want to play

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Speaker 2: a little bit more conservative, both on offense and I

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Speaker 2: mean being a good defense. I think they're going to

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Speaker 2: be in some more rock fights than people anticipate. And

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Speaker 2: the Panthers looked fine last week. Most importantly, they looked

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Speaker 2: really good on defense. And I know what you're saying,

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Speaker 2: pump the brakes. It's the New York Jets. It's a

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Speaker 2: dilapidated offensive line, it's a rookie quarterback. But when you

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Speaker 2: can pressure with guys like Brian Burns and you can

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Speaker 2: cover in the back, you can have some success in

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Speaker 2: this league. On top of that, we're seeing a lot

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Speaker 2: of injuries right now for the Saints. Kwan, Alexander, Marcus Davenport,

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Speaker 2: Marshawn Lattimore all DNPS on Wednesday. Marshaon Latimore carries a

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Speaker 2: doubtful status and we know that about single digit percentage

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Speaker 2: players that carry that status end up making it to Sunday.

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Speaker 2: On top of that, their IR situation is pretty bad.

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Speaker 2: Ken Crawley on the iar is one of the reasons

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Speaker 2: why they traded for Bradley Roby last week. No tray

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Speaker 2: Quan Smith, of course, no Michael Thomas. So very limited

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Speaker 2: on offense, banged up on defense. So I think this

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Speaker 2: is gonna be quite a low scoring game. And I

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Speaker 2: think the Saints can the Panthers can keep it competitive

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Speaker 2: with their receiver corps. I mean, Bradley Roby and Paulson

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Speaker 2: Adivo are gonna be in tough situations against three really

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Speaker 2: good receivers in Dj Moore, Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall.

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Speaker 2: So and Donald, you know, I'm still a Truther eight yards?

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Speaker 1: Are you? Are you? Are you like? Are you high

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Speaker 1: on him? Long term?

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Speaker 2: I think Donald is at minimum a league average quarterback

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Speaker 2: and he needs to be rained in. He needed to

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Speaker 2: escape Adam Gase.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And I think the Panthers will be just fine. I

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Speaker 2: think this is gonna be a close contested game. I

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Speaker 2: could see the Panthers winning outright. I don't think that

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Speaker 2: would be too insane. So yeah, give me the Panthers

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Speaker 2: plus three and a half.

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Speaker 1: If only there were any history of a quarterback looking

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Speaker 1: like probably not even fit for the NFL under Adam

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Speaker 1: Gase and then escaping and then becoming one of the

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Speaker 1: best quarterbacks. We may talk about that. QUI back a

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Speaker 1: little bit later. I'm not ready to declare Sam Donald

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Speaker 1: below average or above average or average. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what Sam Darnold is yet, because again I agree with you,

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Speaker 1: I think it's completely unfair to judge him based on

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Speaker 1: what happened in New York. I will say to add

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Speaker 1: to your point in this game, and I'll get to

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Speaker 1: my thoughts very quickly. Is the Saints are also dealing

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Speaker 1: with COVID among their coaches, like right, like a lot

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Speaker 1: of their coach not Peyton obviously, but a lot of

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Speaker 1: their coaching staff is kind of just working on their

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Speaker 1: couches right now, doing from home, don't you know, discount

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Speaker 1: that impact as well as you get ready for the

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Speaker 1: game plan. So there are a lot of signs here.

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Speaker 1: And again you know, it's not the quintessential by Loo

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Speaker 1: because the Panthers one against the Jets, you know, so

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Speaker 1: it's not like your people are down on them or

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Speaker 1: anything like that. But you are selling high on the Saints,

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Speaker 1: which is what you do in week two when people overreact,

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Speaker 1: and for me, Saints played great, but you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 1: The number of injuries on defense is really remarkable, and

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Speaker 1: the one thing the Panthers can do. They have a

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Speaker 1: good offensive system, of course, and they have the three

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Speaker 1: wide receivers who you mentioned again. They have DJ Moore,

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Speaker 1: they have Robbie Anderson. I liked what I saw of

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Speaker 1: Terrest Marshall, and of course they have Christian McCaffrey, probably

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Speaker 1: the best, you know, just non quarterback offense player in

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Speaker 1: the game right now. So I don't hate it. I

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Speaker 1: probably won't bet it just because it scares me, but

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Speaker 1: I do think that last week was also sort of

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Speaker 1: a weird combination of factors where I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: it was very, very hot, and I think the Packers

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Speaker 1: probably weren't necessarily prepared for it. They just looked gas

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Speaker 1: and out of sort. So I think it was as

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Speaker 1: much against the Packers as it was the Saints. So

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Speaker 1: I don't hate it. If I had to take a side,

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Speaker 1: I would take the Panthers. But I am a little scared.

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Speaker 1: And that's funny considering what my number one best bet

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Speaker 1: in which is something that you I think we should

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Speaker 1: be honest before I told everybody last week Sean and

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Speaker 1: I did not exchange picks before. And he came out

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Speaker 1: of the gate with seattles or whatever and you and

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Speaker 1: I said, you want to exchange picks? And I said, sure, whatever,

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Speaker 1: send him over and you hadn't yet this morning, and

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Speaker 1: I said, all right, well, these are my three picks.

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Speaker 1: I'll get off one if you want. And my first

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Speaker 1: pick was the Vikings getting three and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals. And do you remember what you wrote back

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Speaker 1: to me after I sent.

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Speaker 2: You that, Thank the heavens, Thank the heavens that I

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Speaker 2: don't have to tout this game and somebody else has

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Speaker 2: to because I wanted to trust me. But I will

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Speaker 2: run tail between my legs and I will give the

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Speaker 2: floor to you. Mister Ayres.

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Speaker 1: This is the quintessential game that you look at and

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Speaker 1: you say, I have to take this game. But I

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Speaker 1: have no interest in taking this game. Like that is

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Speaker 1: what this is like. It feels grotesque to even do it.

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Speaker 1: But when I was looking at it, I was like,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna give me more than a hook. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to take it right now. And again, this is a theme,

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Speaker 1: and it looks like you're on the same theme. And

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Speaker 1: I think if you look historically it bears out, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's fruitful that when you fade, generally a lot of

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Speaker 1: the big things that you saw. And the Jaguars beat

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Speaker 1: the Colts last year in Week.

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Speaker 2: One, right never they ever ever won a game ever again.

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Speaker 1: And may never again as well. But yeah, that although

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Speaker 1: maybe we don't know this week, but regardless, bottom line

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Speaker 1: is this, Like the Viking did look bad in this

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Speaker 1: game against the Bengals, they still could have won. Obviously.

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Speaker 1: The Cardinals looked like absolute world beaters in this game.

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Speaker 1: But again, I think it's a little bit of an

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Speaker 1: overreaction and spoiler. Like we'll talk about the Titans in

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Speaker 1: a little bit because that's another one of my picks.

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Speaker 1: But I think a lot of what we saw with

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Speaker 1: that Cardinals Titans game is on the Titans, not the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, the Cardinals are a very good offensive system.

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Speaker 1: Deonder Hopkins is amazing, Climber is incredible, I like Rondell

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Speaker 1: Moore what We're going to see a ton of good

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Speaker 1: things from them. But I don't think that defense is

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Speaker 1: anything close to what it showed. I think that the

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Speaker 1: Titans really and I mentioned this before earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: actually is that I think that really the Titans, whether

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Speaker 1: it was the COVID situation that prevented them from practicing

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Speaker 1: a lot, or whether it was just the general injury concerns,

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Speaker 1: they just weren't ready for that game and they didn't

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Speaker 1: play well, and I expect them to correct it right now.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think you're going to see as good

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Speaker 1: as Chandler Jones is. I don't think you're going to

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Speaker 1: see the team have you know, six sacs or whatever

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Speaker 1: they had. Again, I think the defense is going to

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Speaker 1: allow points against the Vikings team, by the way, who

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Speaker 1: offense can very easy put up points, whether it's through

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Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook, whether it's through Adam Fieln, who looked like

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Speaker 1: he had sort of found the fountain of youth. And

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Speaker 1: that's not even talking about Justin Jefferson, pardon me. And

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Speaker 1: again kJ Osborne also sort of showed up suddenly. So

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to put up points.

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Speaker 1: If you look historically, it's how the Vikings sort of react.

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Speaker 1: They're usually played pretty well after a loss to under

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Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer and really, you know, they had to lose

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Speaker 1: a lot of new starters, you know, in their first game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that corrects itself immediately in the

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Speaker 1: second game, but they had a ton of penalties in

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Speaker 1: that game. I expect them to probably do better. And

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Speaker 1: again their defense. I like their secondar I mean, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Peterson maybe a little intel on what they're going to

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Speaker 1: see here from Arizona. So this is just a game

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Speaker 1: man that this screams to me something of the public

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Speaker 1: is going to absolutely hit the Cardinals in this game.

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Speaker 1: They're going to love the Cardinals. They're going to fade

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Speaker 1: the Vikings, and I just think that the Vikings are

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Speaker 1: pretty obviously like the right side to be on. It

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Speaker 1: just makes me want to bombit a little bit in

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Speaker 1: my mouth to have.

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Speaker 2: To make this pick. I mean, you can see it

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Speaker 2: on the betting Pro's matchup page. Right eighty three percent

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Speaker 2: of people are selecting.

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Speaker 1: You looking at the matchups page. That's my guy.

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Speaker 2: I know, I'm a chameleon. I know where I'm at.

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Speaker 2: We're looking at a two point look ahead that went

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Speaker 2: to and through the key number of three, so we're

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Speaker 2: getting value there. It opened at four and a half,

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Speaker 2: it's already come down, so that means influential money is

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Speaker 2: coming in on the Vikings. This is a classic overreaction spot.

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Speaker 2: As you noted, Mike Zimmer I think has the coaching advantage.

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins might be a better quarterback. I've never been

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Speaker 2: really a Kyler Murray guy. I think he has a

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Speaker 2: lot of limitations when it comes to decision making. He

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Speaker 2: threw a bone hited interception against Tennessee. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if that's going to correct itself, and against a Vikings

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Speaker 2: defense that tends to be very aggressive. Mike Zimmer is

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Speaker 2: very gap competent, meaning that he designs blitzes to take

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Speaker 2: away all to attack all of your weaknesses. And if

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Speaker 2: Kyler is pressure in his face, I don't know if

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Speaker 2: he's always going to make the best decision given what's

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Speaker 2: in front of him. So the thing that does put

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Speaker 2: the fear of God to me is the reports that

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Speaker 2: Kyler was injured towards the end of last year. So

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Speaker 2: maybe some of my negative outlook on the kid is

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Speaker 2: the fact that he was actually being a tough SOB

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Speaker 2: and playing through a shoulder injury. On top of that,

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Speaker 2: speaking of COVID, there's just a dark cloud over Minnesota

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Speaker 2: and the kind of tug of war that they're dealing

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Speaker 2: with in their locker room and the division that comes

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Speaker 2: through COVID when their leader won't get vaccinated, and it's

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Speaker 2: putting it's putting a lot of pressure on the organization.

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Speaker 2: When the coach wants people to get vaccinated, he's threatening

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Speaker 2: the fire coaches that won't get vaccinated and the leader

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Speaker 2: of the team, the quarterback, won't take the vack. So

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Speaker 2: there's just this cloud that's hanging over Minnesota that has

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Speaker 2: me a little bit worried. But you're right, this is

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Speaker 2: a classic a one week one overreaction line. Moved an

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Speaker 2: insane amount from the look Ahead, and I think you

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Speaker 2: just have to blindly click the dog.

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Speaker 1: In this spot. It's good. It's a good point on

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Speaker 1: the look at You're right, that was it's a big

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Speaker 1: move here. And again everybody's still going to be on

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals in my guards. Yeah, the books are going

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Speaker 1: to be completely happy about that, and you know that

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Speaker 1: that's what they want with the way they see it,

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Speaker 1: with your point re cousins and and the vaccine. I

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Speaker 1: really do think that that is a reason to fade

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Speaker 1: them long term on the season. I really do think,

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Speaker 1: because I think just given the protocols, forget about anything else.

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Speaker 1: The protocols that the NFL has put in means that

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Speaker 1: I think it's highly likely that Cousins is gonna miss

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Speaker 1: at least a game this season just because he'll be

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Speaker 1: a close contact or something and there'll be something that

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Speaker 1: he won't be able to get out of. So I

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Speaker 1: think long term, I am worried about the vikings for

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Speaker 1: one game. In the bounce back spot, I'm holding my nose.

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Speaker 1: I want to do it. Let's go to pick number two.

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Speaker 1: What do you got?

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Speaker 2: I was gonna say, let's keep holding our nose though,

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, more, All right, let's go. We are selecting

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Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars plus six at home against the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: I'm not that much of a coward. I said it

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Speaker 2: was a coward for not clicking the vikings, But this

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Speaker 2: is me grabbing my shield and being a hero. Thirty

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Speaker 2: percent of folks on betting pros are selecting this team.

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Speaker 2: Let's just use some math. Real quick. Homefield advantage is

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Speaker 2: about one point nine right now, that's what we're working with.

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Speaker 2: So if this game was in Denver, the Broncos would

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Speaker 2: be minus ten. So what this is saying is that

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Speaker 2: the gap between the Broncos and the Jaguars is only

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Speaker 2: one point fewer than the gap between the Packers and

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Speaker 2: the Lions, Packers sitting at minus eleven. That doesn't really

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Speaker 2: work for me. The Packers are a team with Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl aspirations, one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen,

338
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Speaker 2: coming home after a loss playing against the Lions team

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Speaker 2: that I know they backdoored if you got the number late,

340
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Speaker 2: but they were absolutely destroyed by the San Francisco forty

341
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Speaker 2: nine ers. Back to back East Coast trips for Denver

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Speaker 2: eighty six degrees and rainy is projecting to be fifty

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Speaker 2: six percent chance of precipitation. So we're talking about an

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Speaker 2: ugly game. And just like the team that I just mentioned,

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Speaker 2: the Saints with injuries, the Broncos placed run Darby on IR,

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Speaker 2: a big free agent signing for them. Jerry Judy's on

347
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Speaker 2: IR guard Graham Glasgow, experienced heart palpitations during the game,

348
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Speaker 2: went to the hospital after the Giants game didn't travel back.

349
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Speaker 2: With Denver covering six on the road in pro football

350
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Speaker 2: means you're going to go out, get a lead and

351
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Speaker 2: extend the lead, and I just don't trust Teddy Bridgewater

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Speaker 2: to do that. I know it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I

353
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Speaker 2: know this is something that people out there aren't going

354
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Speaker 2: to run to the window to bet. I know Vic

355
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Speaker 2: Fangio against a rookie quarterback is terrifying, but three point

356
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Speaker 2: look ahead blasts all the way to six. Just like

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Speaker 2: what you said about the Minnesota Vikings, I think you

358
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Speaker 2: just have to hold your nose, click the dog, and

359
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 2: just don't watch. When red zone shows this game, change

360
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Speaker 2: it to QVC or something. Just don't watch a single

361
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Speaker 2: snap in this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, QVC, it's going to be better than watching this game,

363
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Speaker 1: is probably correct. Ah. So look, this sort of goes

364
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Speaker 1: to everything that we're saying. I think probably the Jaguars

365
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 1: strike me as the sharp side. I can't do it, though,

366
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Speaker 1: only because I can't. No, I can't. I mean you're

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Speaker 1: I think you're right, just because holy cow, man, like,

368
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Speaker 1: there are disasters in the NFL, and you and I,

369
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Speaker 1: obviously being fans of the Jets, are quite familiar with

370
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Speaker 1: how that works. But I don't know if I've ever

371
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Speaker 1: seen a coach like urban Meyer come in here and

372
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Speaker 1: screw everything up so quickly and just make things worse

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Speaker 1: every second of the day. This is bizarro world. I

374
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Speaker 1: think on paper, you're right, this spread is too much

375
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Speaker 1: and the sharp side is the Jaguars, but it really isn't.

376
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Speaker 1: And maybe that's narrative, like maybe that's not something that

377
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Speaker 1: we should consider as better, but it is something I

378
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Speaker 1: have to consider as better. And I don't even know

379
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Speaker 1: what he was doing that, Like, I don't know how

380
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Speaker 1: you come out and you say against the Texans, you go,

381
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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna let Trevor Lawrence throw all day right

382
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Speaker 1: from the start, and you're gonna say, I really want

383
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Speaker 1: Carlos Hide to back more than jad Johnson.

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Speaker 2: No, James comes in. They have a free running back, right,

385
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,160
Speaker 2: someone that they're not paying anything to. They use first

386
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: round draft equity on Travis Aten, so you feel like

387
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Speaker 2: they're forced into using James Robinson. Okay, they tried to

388
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 2: make mistake, the mistake was taken away from him, and

389
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Speaker 2: he just starts plunging with Carlos It's.

390
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Speaker 1: So nuts, it's nuts, And look, Carlos side's very capable backup.

391
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Speaker 1: James Robinson did nothing last year to suggest that without

392
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Speaker 1: ETN he needs to be benched or anything. Just maddening. Man.

393
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Speaker 1: So for me, it's just like I could see the

394
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Speaker 1: back door cover. I don't. I don't see a way

395
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Speaker 1: that the Jaguars are gonna win this game. They could, obviously,

396
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Speaker 1: you never know. It's we're avoiding overreactions. This is not

397
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Speaker 1: an O reaction against the Broncos, Like, I don't care

398
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Speaker 1: really what they did against the Giants. I thought they

399
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 1: looked fine, basically what I expected. But it's something where

400
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Speaker 1: I can't get mentally over the point of just being like,

401
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,480
Speaker 1: I can't voluntarily put money down on the Jaguarts right now,

402
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 1: which is fair. A team that I can voluntarily put

403
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 1: money down on is the Titans. We're getting five and

404
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: a half from the Seahawks. They're in Seattle. That's never

405
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 1: good time. I'm just looking up exactly. So it's it's

406
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Speaker 1: about fifty to fifty right now. Fifty two percent of

407
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 1: our experts are taking the Seahawks, forty eight percent taking

408
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 1: the Titans. So let's continue our trend rich of making

409
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Speaker 1: plays that do not make us feel warm and fuzzy

410
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 1: in this one. We know Seattle's a very difficult place

411
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Speaker 1: to play, and they look great with their new offensive

412
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Speaker 1: scheme last week, and the Titans looked like the worst

413
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Speaker 1: you know team in football. But again this is me really?

414
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Speaker 1: I am really, and maybe I'm overreacting in sort of

415
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 1: the positive way. I'm basically throwing out everything that we

416
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 1: saw from the Titans last week. I think it was

417
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 1: just a we have not practiced whatsoever. I mean, put

418
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 1: aside everything else. Tannel and Julio Jones literally never practiced,

419
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 1: like you know, I don't know how many practices I

420
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: actually had together, but the whole team just was not

421
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,400
Speaker 1: ready to play, and that could linger, right. I mean, again,

422
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: you need to catch up. But I also have an

423
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Speaker 1: incredible amount of respect for Mike Rabel as a coach.

424
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Speaker 1: I think he's one of the better coaches in the NFL.

425
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Speaker 1: I think he is going to get this team ready

426
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 1: to play. That you know, Taylor Lwan was obviously terrible.

427
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,880
Speaker 1: I expect him to play better. I think the line

428
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 1: is going to play better. I think both receivers will

429
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 1: get more involved. I think you're going to see a

430
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 1: better game from Dereck Henry. And again, Seattle does not

431
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 1: have the pass rush, right, they don't have a Chandler

432
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 1: Jones on their team. Again, they're not going to basically

433
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: be harassing Ryan Tannell. So I think offensively, I think

434
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 1: the Titans are going to look much much better than

435
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 1: we saw last week. And again, Seattle was good last week.

436
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 1: They won that game handily. We figured that they would,

437
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: but that wasn't that far away from being like a

438
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 1: four point game, Like the Colts could have easily scored

439
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: a touchdown gotten the two point conversion. It's a four

440
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: point win, I mean, even in a game that they

441
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: pretty much dominated. So it's something where I do I

442
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: expect the Seahawks to win. I do, but look, we

443
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: know how the Seahawks have historically played. I mean, look

444
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:50,919
Speaker 1: at last year.

445
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,160
Speaker 2: They were twelve never a normal game.

446
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: We know that there's every possibility that they will just

447
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: start running the ball. But that but let's say they

448
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: stick with Shane waldron'system. Four of their twelve wins last year,

449
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 1: only four were by more than one score. Like, if

450
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 1: you're going they like to play other games, that's just

451
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 1: what they do. And I think that this one's gonna

452
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: be a close game. Again, if I had to bet,

453
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 1: it'd be the Seahawks winning by a field goal in

454
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: this game. So I will take the five and a half.

455
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to lean with you. I'm a little

456
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 2: concerned with the Titans defense. But the point you bring

457
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 2: up last week is very indicative of the Seahawks. It

458
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: was very much a Shane Waldron first half and a

459
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll second half. Let's salt the lead away, let's

460
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: set the game away, hang on to a lead, get home,

461
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: get prepped for next week when a lot of other

462
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: teams in this league are extending leads and putting teams

463
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: away and again, to cover five, five and a half

464
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: in the NFL, you need to be extending leads and

465
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 2: not holding on to the rock and salting games away.

466
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 2: So the biggest problem with the Seahawks last year was

467
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 2: the fact that when teams started showing them that too deep,

468
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 2: they had no idea what to do. And Shane Waldron

469
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 2: did a great job of attacking the Colts last week

470
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: with ebra Flus as a classic two deep team, and

471
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 2: they absolutely shredded them deep. Will that carry over into

472
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: next week? I think it's possible. I think that the

473
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 2: whole offseason the Hawks were a team that were getting

474
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 2: absolutely no love when all they do every single year

475
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 2: is go out and get double digit wins. Russell Wilson

476
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: is perennially a top five quarterback. Lockett and dk metcalf

477
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 2: are to one of the best receiver cors in the league.

478
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 2: And what Pete's done his whole tenure and in Seattle

479
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 2: is take mid round players with zero pedigree and put

480
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 2: together a pretty good defense. So I like the spot.

481
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 2: It worries me a little bit when I start digging

482
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 2: into the actual teams, because I'm a little bit down

483
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: on the Titans. But You're absolutely right. One of the

484
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 2: things you want to be doing in the NFL is

485
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 2: betting on the team that looked the worst last week,

486
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 2: and the Tennessee Titans were certainly one of those things.

487
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 2: Just regrets to the mean, these teams are just too talented.

488
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, no, no, I was just wrapping up.

489
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, and again, Seattle generally has looked, you know,

490
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: good early on here, and I get like last year

491
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: and I get like their offense looked really good. I

492
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: just this is a bounce back spot for the Titans. Man, Like,

493
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 1: I cannot imagine that they come out as nearly as

494
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 1: flas they did. They were embarrassed by that game, like

495
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: for sure, like they need to come here and show something,

496
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: and I just I kind of trust that they will.

497
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is what it is. This is this

498
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: is a hold your nose week, man, like we're talking

499
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: about it. So do you have a hold your nose

500
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: third pick here for your third best bat?

501
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 2: Not really. I know a lot of people like to

502
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: bet the over in some of these games, and with

503
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 2: the record being broken last week with fourth down attempts,

504
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 2: maybe this season will be in overseason. But I'm circling

505
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: the under forty seven and a half in this Texans

506
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 2: Browns game on Sunday. It's one of those where if

507
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 2: you agree with me, you're gonna want to go out

508
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: there and get it now because forty seven is a

509
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: key number and the Cleveland Browns have a couple of

510
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: injuries that the Thursday practice report, which we haven't seen yet,

511
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 2: could dictate a line move in this spot. Three starting

512
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: offensive linemen on the Browns did not practice yesterday. Jedrick

513
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: Willis was carted off on Sunday against the Chiefs that

514
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: left tackle and his replacement in that game also got hurt.

515
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: So there's a chance that the JC Treader and Jack

516
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 2: Conklin dnps on Wednesday were just veterans rest Those things

517
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: tend to happen. But we'll get more information here on Thursday,

518
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: and if they are dnps on Thursday, I could certainly

519
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 2: see this line starting to come down, because in order

520
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: for the Browns to cover a number as big as this,

521
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: and in order for them to get to the over,

522
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 2: it's going to be the Browns that are scoring in

523
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 2: this game and putting points on the board. And with

524
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 2: a broken offensive line, a team that does want to

525
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 2: run the ball, that has invested as on at the

526
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 2: running back position is going to be a little bit

527
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 2: hamstrung to do so. But if you wait for the news,

528
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 2: then the line's going to start moving. So it's one

529
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 2: of those where you almost have to be a little

530
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: bit aggressive and get to it before the market starts changing.

531
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: The Texans last week, playing at at home against the Jaguars,

532
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: allowed the fifth highest pressure rate in the entire league.

533
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: The Jaguars do not have a stout defensive line what

534
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 2: and they didn't send a ton of pressure. I mean,

535
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 2: their blitz rate was thirty two point four, so top third,

536
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: but nothing like the you know, the fifty percent that

537
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: we saw from the Dolphins and fifty percent we traditionally

538
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: see from the Ravens that we saw a ton of

539
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 2: on Monday night against the Raiders there. Now they travel

540
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: on the road, they have to block Miles Garrett and

541
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: Jadeveon Clowney and tack McKinley and Malik Jackson. That's not

542
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: gonna be an easy assignment. So I think the Texans

543
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,719
Speaker 2: are going to strugle to score. And if the Browns

544
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 2: have these offensive line issues and can't get their offense

545
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: going as well, I think we'll see a little bit

546
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 2: of a controlled rock fight. I think the Browns will

547
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: be just fine, But I think that the under is

548
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 2: definitely in play, and if you're super brave, I think

549
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: taking the points with Houston might be in play as well.

550
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: This is interesting, Okay, So if that, what if the

551
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: practice reports are positive, I mean, Wills isn't gonna play.

552
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we can assume that. But what

553
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: if the practice reports are positive on the offensive line?

554
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: And are you still good with it? I mean, I

555
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: assume in forty seven and a half, you just think

556
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: that it might drop if it's bad, right, Yeah.

557
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 2: If it's bad. I think this line gets to the

558
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 2: key number and Nobe even gets a little bit down

559
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: from that, but I don't think it'll ever touch the

560
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: other key of forty four. I mean, that's a precipitous drop, right,

561
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: but I could certainly see it coming off this forty

562
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I think I'm still comfortable with it.

563
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: It's I think it's fifty to fifty that Tretder and conkline.

564
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: We're just getting veterans rest. But the fact that the

565
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: Browns might be on their third string left tackle is

566
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: certainly not a good thing.

567
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: All right, I don't I don't have a good feel.

568
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember what my we on Monday. We

569
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 1: do like an opening reactions line. You know what is

570
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: our opening reaction to the line? I don't remember what

571
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: my life I feel like. I like the over, but

572
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: I don't really have a good feel for right now.

573
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: You know, I can see I think the Browns are

574
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: gonna run all day long, which is obviously generally speaking

575
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: good for the under, but I don't have a good

576
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: sense of it. It's actually it's funny because it's it's

577
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the people picking on Bettingbros. Dot

578
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: Com are on the over right now, so you're in

579
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 1: the minority here, which I know you're fine with, right.

580
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: I love being the one, all right, I'm going to go.

581
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: I'm trying to see whether or not I'm in the

582
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 1: minority or the majority on this one. And it's no

583
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: big I'm just gonna scroll and waste time. Okay, Yeah,

584
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: I'm in the minority big time on this one. And

585
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: it is the Dolphins getting three and a half against

586
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: the Bills. Seventy nine percent of our experts here are

587
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: taking the Bills, only twenty one percent taking the Dolphins.

588
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 1: I am one of those twenty one percent. This is

589
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 1: not an overly analytical analysis for this one. And this

590
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 1: is not a you know, it's sort of the opposite, right,

591
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: like the Bill's lost and the Dolphins one, and so

592
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 1: you know, blah blah blah. But the bottom line is this.

593
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup. It's between two really good teams.

594
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: And I think if you are giving over a field

595
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 1: goal in a game like this, I'm just gonna take

596
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: the hook. They're in Florida, right That is just very

597
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: especially right now in the summer, Like we know this,

598
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: We've seen it with Tom Brady or whatever. It's sort

599
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: of difficult for road teams to acclimate to that, especially

600
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: when it's really really hot. I think the Bills played

601
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: okay against the Steelers, Steelers have a great defense, but

602
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: I did think that they showed some cracks a little bit.

603
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: You know, their offensive line wasn't really great. It wasn't

604
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: really that great, you know, necessarily last year and now

605
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: last week they met in this exact same spot in

606
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: Miami in Week two it was thirty one twenty eight.

607
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: I can see sort of something. It's different obviously because

608
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: Fitz was there. But I do think that this is

609
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: going to be a close game. I think the Dolphins

610
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: obviously have a very very solid and underrated defense. I

611
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: think zaviy I'm very excited to see Zavian Howard matchup

612
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: against Von Diggs, which I expect in this game, which

613
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: we saw at the end of last year. He did

614
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: a decent job of keeping him under control. But this

615
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: is something where I think it might take a little

616
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: while for the Bills kind of to round back into

617
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: form here. And I think the Dolphins, as much as

618
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: they didn't look explosive as much as we wanted to

619
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: to sort of all right, throw into coverage, like be

620
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: a more of a gun singer, and he wasn't, I

621
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: think they can survive like that. I think this game

622
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: might be a little lower scoring than people expect Will

623
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: Fuller should be back, although I saw that he missed

624
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: practice today for an undisclosed reason. If he's out, that

625
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: might color the way I feel about it. But I

626
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: think that Fuller does add another dimension to this offense.

627
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: DeVante Parker looked great last week as well. Miles Gaskin

628
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: is very solid. Jaalen Waddell had a very nice opening game.

629
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: To me, again, it's not overly analytical. It's just a

630
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams that are very solid and

631
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: know each other really well. It strikes me as much

632
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: more of a field goal, so I would take the

633
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: hook either way. But I'm wondering because are so many

634
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: people are on the Bills whether or not you feel

635
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: the same.

636
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: So if we look at home field advantage again being

637
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: one point nine, that says that the Bills would be

638
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 2: minus seven and a half in the spot against the

639
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: Dolphins a week after being minus six and a half

640
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. So what the market is telling us

641
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: is that they believe in this spot that the gap

642
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: between the Bills and the Dolphins is one point higher

643
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: than the gap between the Bills and the Steelers. I

644
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 2: don't know if that's true. Last week. The Bill Steelers

645
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: game was absolutely fascinating because the Steelers blitzed on one play,

646
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: I know, one play. That being said, not every team

647
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: has a TJ. Watt and the Melvin Ingram and the

648
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 2: horses up front to just send four and be comfortable

649
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 2: dropping seven back in coverage, which was a headache for

650
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. Josh Allen eats against blitzes, he eats against

651
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: man coverage. The Dolphins blitz at a fifty percent rate

652
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: last week against the Patriots. Are they going to do

653
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: the same this week? Is Brian Flores going to try

654
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: to send pressure? If he does, I think the Bills

655
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: are certainly going to look more like the twenty twenty

656
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 2: Bills than they did in Week one. But this is

657
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: I mean, this line to me is just razor sharp.

658
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: I could see the Bills getting back to their old ways, scoring,

659
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: pushing edges, getting the ball downfield, and then what does

660
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 2: two A do in negative script? That's the biggest issue

661
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: for the Dolphins this season. They have very defined RPO

662
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: style offense. Easy throws, easy decisions for Tua. What happens

663
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: when he's down you know a touchdown plus and he's

664
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: throwing you know four verts and making decisions that last

665
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 2: year he was very conservative in doing so. So I'm

666
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 2: going to be a bystander for this game. I think

667
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: it's going to be a very fun game between two

668
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 2: good teams, and I'll let you be brave in the

669
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 2: spot and click the dog.

670
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: It's gonna be such an ugly week for us, my friend,

671
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: and not that we're gonna lose. I just mean we're

672
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: gonna be rooting for such, you know, such terrible underdogs here. Okay,

673
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: so you are taking Let's just recap very quickly. At

674
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: the end, Panther is getting three and a half from

675
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: the Saints, the Jaguars getting six from the Broncos, and

676
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: the Texans, and the Browns going under forty seven and

677
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: a half total points. I am taking the Vikings getting

678
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans getting

679
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: five and a half from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins

680
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: getting three and a half from Bill's Man. Somebody who's

681
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast for the first time, they're like,

682
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: these guys some intestinal fortitude. Okay, how about let's run

683
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: through very quickly the rest of the game. We talked

684
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: about the over runner. Obviously on the Browns and Texans.

685
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: But what do you think about the fact that the

686
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: Browns are laying twelve and a half points here doesn't

687
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: matter with you what happens with the offensive lineman or what.

688
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think So what's interesting is the look ahead

689
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: was thirteen, So the Texans got some respect for the

690
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: fact that they went out and won the game out

691
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 2: right last week. Granted it's a half point of respect,

692
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: not towards or off of a key number. But if

693
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 2: those two players in Treder and Conklin are dnps today, yeah,

694
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: I'm definitely leaning the points in the spot, thinking that

695
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: it's going to be a low scoring affair, that Tyrod Taylor,

696
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: the veteran that he is, can navigate the Texans to

697
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: a non blowout in Cleveland.

698
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm betting for It's pretty split. Fifty six percent

699
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: or taking the Browns, forty four percent are taking the Texans.

700
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: I don't think I've made a pick yet on this game.

701
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how I feel about it. If I do,

702
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: you know, dabble, it'll probably be the last minute. But

703
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it, so it's

704
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: a stay away from me. How about the Bears laying

705
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: two and a half at home against the Bengals, and

706
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,479
Speaker 1: I think it was three when I looked at it

707
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: earlier in the week, so it must have dropped half

708
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: a point. What do you think here about two and

709
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: a half?

710
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of shop money came in on the

711
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 2: Bengals earlier in the week. I've actually seen this as

712
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 2: low as one at some books. I think you have

713
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 2: to just take the Bears sub a field goal. Yeah,

714
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: I believe the look ahead in this spot was above

715
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: a field goal. If I'm not correct, let me just

716
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: pull it up here. Ye, look ahead was four and

717
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 2: a half. So that's a very large move too, and

718
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 2: through a key number. Again, it is influential money that's

719
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 2: making this move. But we're buying the Bengals off of

720
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: a massive underdog win, and we're selling the Bears against

721
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: losing against potentially the best team in the NFC. I'm

722
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: very bullish on the Los Angeles Rams. I think the

723
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: addition of Stafford is massive to McVeigh. More importantly, I

724
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: think what the Rams have done on defense the last

725
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 2: two years is something that is going to become more

726
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: prevalent and more understood. The athletic had a tremendous article

727
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: about Brandon Staley and what he's done with the two

728
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 2: deep defense and how he's adapted it to almost be

729
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: basically the how McVeigh uses eleven on offense. You show

730
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: one luck and you can do multiple things out of it.

731
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 2: The way that Brandon Staley is treating two deep coverage

732
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 2: on defense is something that I think is going to

733
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:30,919
Speaker 2: take the league by storm. And I think the Rams

734
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: have a massive edge on defense, and the Chargers do

735
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 2: now as well with Stalely as head coach. So I'm

736
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 2: not going to fault the Bears for getting blasted out

737
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 2: of the water from a Rams team that was opening

738
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: up a brand new stadium in prime time. So yeah,

739
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: I just think short of a field goal, you have

740
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: to take the Bears.

741
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: In the spot. I agree with you. I agree with

742
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: you here. I mean, I really do think now that

743
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: it's dropped under a field goal, like the Bears at home,

744
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: their defense is still strong. I mean, and Galton didn't

745
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: you know, I didn't push the ball down the field,

746
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: but didn't play that poorly against a very very tough defense.

747
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 1: Dave Montgomery looked great. Yeah, and you know you got

748
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 1: the Bengals played well. I was impressed with Jamar Chase.

749
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 1: Certainly in the opening game, I was impressed with Burrow,

750
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: but even Burrow has been complaining a little bit about

751
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: how sore his knee is like after that, which is

752
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: just natural. I think I agree with you. Now that's

753
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 1: under a field goal, I would lean the Bears. How

754
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 1: about the Eagles, which were again earlier in the week

755
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 1: getting three and a half. They're now just getting three

756
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 1: from the forty nine ers in Philadelphia.

757
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: So one of my twenty twenty one goals is to

758
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 2: be a little less stubborn, at least try to be

759
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: a little less stubborn. And I came into the season

760
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 2: with very very negative connotations towards the Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe

761
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: the Nick Sirianni press conference colored my analysis a little

762
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: bit too much. Certainly Jalen Hurts' inability to play the

763
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: quarterback position last year colored my analysis. But I have

764
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: to give them so much credit for what they did

765
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,240
Speaker 2: last week. They gave Jalen Hurts as many easy throws

766
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: as possible and a dodd of three point seven. Let's

767
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: not make him diagnose the field go through multiple reads.

768
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: Let's get these very fast, skilled position players the ball

769
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 2: at the line skirmage and let Jalen Hurs play some

770
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 2: Reid option. They got Kenneth Gainwell involved early. You know,

771
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 2: a lot of teams would just trot Boston Scott out

772
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: the veteran, give him those passing down touches. They took

773
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 2: the kid and they said, you know what, we think

774
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: he's talented. We saw a lot of him in training camp.

775
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 2: He got thirty three percent of the snaps. So maybe

776
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 2: Sirianni's a little sharper than I gave him credit for.

777
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, with Philadelphia being so stout

778
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: on both offensive and defensive line and some of these

779
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: injuries for the Niners, Eric Armstead, Drake Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw

780
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 2: all DNPS yesterday, this line might be a little bit

781
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 2: too rich. I'm very bullsh on the Niners. I think

782
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: the Niners are going to have a tremendous season. Yeah massive,

783
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan, Stan, But you know, this might just be

784
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: a little bit too rich for a West Coast team. Travelings.

785
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: I liked it at three and a half. At three,

786
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm staying away. I look, I was somebody

787
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: who you know, you know I do fantasy, obviously, I

788
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: do fantasy projections as well. But I was big unhurt

789
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: this whole year, and I was sort of like, well,

790
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: worst case scenario, it's going to be his legs and

791
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 1: he'll be fine. But I was hoping that what we

792
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: would see is that you have an entire off season,

793
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, rumors be damned. You have an entire off

794
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: season to devote yourself to creating an offense that revolves

795
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: around Jalen Hurts. The skill set that is exactly what

796
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 1: they did. And their offensive line played really well. Their

797
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: defensive line as solid as we know. So I think

798
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: the Eagles there's a lot of reason to be optimistic

799
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: with that said, I don't know yet. I need, you know,

800
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: beating up on an Atlanta team that just looked terrible.

801
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: You know, I need to see it again here against

802
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, which is why I'm staying away.

803
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 1: But I would take it at three and a half.

804
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: You can find it out there. I know that it's

805
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 1: still lingering out there at some books. I would take

806
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: that at three. I think it's a stay away. But

807
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 1: I misspoke there.

808
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: Sorry. The Niners did of course, Shannon had did the

809
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 2: smart thing they see. They stayed East after the Detroit

810
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 2: game last week, so no long road trip.

811
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: It's still though, I mean, it still is, like I

812
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: know they do that living in It's still a big

813
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 1: deal if you stay out east like I realized, Like okay, good,

814
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 1: but really it's still a big, a big move. This

815
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: one's interesting. It's not surprising to me that the betting

816
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: experts have made the picks that way they have. The

817
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: Rams are visiting the Colts. The Rams are currently three

818
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Ninety percent of the picks

819
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: coming in on the Rams. Are you with them as

820
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: a buyer of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford?

821
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: Ah, this is tough, yep, could because a lot of

822
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 2: the stuff we just talked about was overreaction correct. How

823
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 2: do we take advantage of that in week two? And

824
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: naturally you would want to take the Colts and the

825
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 2: points in this spot, But I don't know if I

826
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: can do it. I think I just and that doesn't

827
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 2: mean I'm going to click the Rams in the spot.

828
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 2: It just thinks I'm going to stay on the sideline

829
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: for this game. But what this line is saying is

830
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: that the Rams are a point better than the Seahawks.

831
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: Which you know is probably right. So this is probably

832
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 2: a fair line. And yeah, I think I think if

833
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 2: you like the Colts, you're believing in Aberflus coming out

834
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,800
Speaker 2: and playing great defense, right the Colts not. Their biggest

835
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 2: trend in the last couple of years was to play

836
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 2: a very strong, two deep defense, keep everything in front

837
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 2: of you. I'll never forget they went to Arrowhead two

838
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: years ago. They were ten point dogs. They went in

839
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 2: on a Sunday night, beat them out right because they

840
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 2: didn't give Tyreek or any of these chiefs weapons the

841
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 2: opportunity to get down the field, kept everything in front

842
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 2: of them and were able to win a little bit

843
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 2: of a rock fight. And that's the Colts calling card.

844
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: If they can do that. The Rams don't have a

845
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,879
Speaker 2: great running game, they don't really have a great run

846
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 2: blocking offensive line. They can make this game a little ugly.

847
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 2: But you know, if the Rams can mimic what their

848
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: former coach did last week and attack these guys deep,

849
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: then they're gonna have some success. So I can see

850
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 2: a lot of outcomes here. I'm just gonna stay on

851
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: the sideline.

852
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: This is a git. We see so much the same way,

853
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: which is I think like realistically, you look at and

854
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: you're like, well, everything says you probably should take the

855
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 1: Colts in this game, just for the very reasons that

856
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: you and I have talked about nonstuff, and yet we

857
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 1: want to take the Rams because we both are buyers

858
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: on the Rams and things they looked incredible, and yet

859
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: neither one of us can really pull that trigger either way.

860
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: So I I'm going to stand inside. I wouldn't be

861
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: surprised to see the Rams win by a touchdown, but

862
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 1: it's something where I'm going to stay away from. How

863
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: about the Steelers at home Link six against the Raiders

864
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: on the short week.

865
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 2: TRYE traditionally a terrible stot spot for the Raiders short

866
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 2: week west to East. This Raiders offensive line is bad

867
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 2: and they still have Ritchie and Cognitio on the injury report.

868
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: Now they have to go block the Pittsburgh Steelers, who,

869
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 2: unlike the Ravens, don't have to send pressure because just

870
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: like they did against the Bills, they can generate a

871
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 2: pass rush with four Minka Fitzpatrick is one of the

872
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 2: few players in the league where you can put him

873
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: on Darren Waller, and I don't think anybody can stop

874
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 2: Darren Waller. Those crossers are absolutely lethal, probably unguardable. But

875
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: the job that Fitzpatrick did last week against Cole Beasley,

876
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: and you might scoff off, you know, Cole Beasley slock guy.

877
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 2: But Cole is very slippery in the slot and a

878
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 2: great route runner, and Fitzpatrick did a hell of a

879
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: job on him. So He's going to be able to

880
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 2: at least anoy Waller in this game and force car

881
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: and the Raiders offense to go elsewhere. Six is pretty rich, though,

882
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 2: five and a half now I'm seeing five in some spots.

883
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 2: So do we trust the Pittsburgh defense to keep this

884
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 2: super low? Yes? But do we trust Big Ben and

885
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: that arm and the prayers that he tends to throw

886
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 2: at Deantay Johnson and Chase Claypool to establish a lead

887
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 2: and extend the lead? I don't think so. So gun

888
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 2: to my head, I think I'm taking the points and

889
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 2: hoping that Derek Carr can can generate some offense against

890
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 2: this tremendous pass rush.

891
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is pretty split down the middle, fifty three

892
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 1: percent on the Raiders forty seven percent of the Steelers.

893
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: I am taking neither for sure. This is a classic

894
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 1: Tomlin like letdown spot. Like you got to be an underdog,

895
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: you gotta be on the road. Nobody believes that's for

896
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin. When you're a favorite by nearly a touchdown

897
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: at home, with everything being like, ah, you should win

898
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 1: this man, you'll be all right, it's like, nah, run away.

899
00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: So but I can bring myself to take the Raiders

900
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: here for the you mentioned, it's just very top on

901
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: this short week. It's not like a good match in

902
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 1: terms of the ability of the Steelers to get pressure

903
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: without bringing the blitz. So just to stay away from me.

904
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: But I guess gun to my head, like you said,

905
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: I would be on the Raiders. But thankfully there is

906
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 1: no gun to my head. So let's go onto the

907
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: Patriots visiting our jets. The spread has climbed to six

908
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: Jets getting six eighty two percent of the people taking

909
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: the Patriots, eighteen percent taking the Jets.

910
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 2: What do you think, Congratulations if you grab the Patriots

911
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: ticket Sunday night Monday morning, Very good job by you,

912
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 2: because yes, this has steamed in the direction of the Patriots.

913
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 2: I don't know how high it has to get for

914
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: me to take the Jets. I don't think it's high enough.

915
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: But I don't think I'm taking Mac Jones on the

916
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 2: road at this number either. I did really like the

917
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 2: three and a half. I thought that was a pretty

918
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,280
Speaker 2: good selection. The big issue is just this Jets offensive

919
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 2: line with becked and out. I mean, what is Matthew

920
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 2: Judon going to do to this offensive line? Zach Wilson

921
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,720
Speaker 2: is gonna have pressure in his face the entire game.

922
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks do so. I think

923
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: Sala will do a decent job against a rookie quarterback

924
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: in his own, but he just doesn't have the horses

925
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 2: that Belichick has. I mean, you go out and you

926
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: sign LaMarcus Joyner. He plays nine snaps. I mean Karl

927
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 2: Lawson plays zero snaps. And now you've just got Bryce

928
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 2: Hall and a cast of misfits back cornerback. So tough spot.

929
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: I don't think it's high enough to take the Jets.

930
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 2: So I guess I'm leaning Patriots. But yeah, this is

931
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: gonna be an ugly affair amount life.

932
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, staying away at six points too much like that.

933
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. Like the Patriots should win this game.

934
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:53,879
Speaker 1: It should probably it should not be threatened, but six

935
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 1: points is too much for mac Jones on the rock

936
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: just interest is like, there's just no way, and you're right,

937
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: you got it early. That's great, but right now I

938
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: can't hopefully, you know, the floor designs something to get

939
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 1: around the fact that their offensive line is you and

940
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: me basically playing at this point, which is crazy with

941
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 1: how much they've invested into this offensive line. But it's

942
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 1: going to be bad. So but I'm saying away again

943
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 1: just because it can't go with mac Jones lay in six.

944
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: How about another big spread here, A couple of big

945
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 1: spreads this week. Bucks playing twelve and a half to

946
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: the Falcons at home.

947
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 2: Is Arthur Smith a fraud?

948
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: I don't think we're not ready to call that after

949
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: a game. It didn't look good that first game, but you.

950
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 2: Know, they were so unprepared. They ran the ball so

951
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 2: frequently on first down despite having such little success up front,

952
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 2: getting pushed and trailing. That was puzzling. Everything that I

953
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: saw out of the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was absolutely puzzling.

954
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan is not somebody who could get back there

955
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: and move around. There were assignments blown up front by

956
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: the offensive line. This is a terrifying spot for a

957
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 2: Bucks team. That has extra rest and the defensive strength

958
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 2: up front that we saw. You know, the Cowboys have

959
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 2: a really good defensive offensive line. For sure, they were

960
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: missing Zach Martine, but you know they're a solid outfit,

961
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 2: and the Bucks were still getting pressure in that spot.

962
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,439
Speaker 2: So I can only imagine what's going to happen when

963
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 2: the Bucks defense starts eating against this Atlanta offensive line.

964
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: And what is this Atlanta defense going to do against

965
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: Tom Brady in this Bucks offense. So I think the

966
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 2: move look ahead with eight moves to twelve, I think

967
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 2: the move is justified. And I mean I could see

968
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 2: the Bucks winning this game by a very very healthy amount.

969
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 2: I'm very concerned with Arthur Smith as the coach of

970
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: the Falcons.

971
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 1: Guns. In my head, it's the Bucks in this one.

972
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: But I also can't lay twelve and a half at

973
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: this point like I can't, because that to me strikes

974
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 1: me as a You look at the Falcons. The Falcons

975
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:05,280
Speaker 1: looked like they were the worst team in the league

976
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 1: in that game. They looked terrible, they looked terribly coached,

977
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: they didn't have the personnel. I'm not ready to say

978
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 1: that's exactly what we're going to see. Your rest of season,

979
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: just for the same reason we're talking about everything. But

980
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: it looked horrific, and we do know that the Bucks

981
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 1: are going to put up a ton of points because

982
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 1: the Bucks had the exact same personnel that they had

983
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 1: last year. They did it against the Cowboys, So I

984
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: lean Bucks, But twelve and a half, I need to

985
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 1: see it again. If they look like that again the Falcons,

986
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 1: I'm fully running hard away and just whatever look aheadline

987
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: I can get on against the Falcons I will take

988
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 1: now because it's just gonna climb. How about the Chargers,

989
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 1: which are now laying three and a half at home

990
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. This was three earlier in the week

991
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 1: when I.

992
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 2: Looked big injuries for the Cowboys are at least one big

993
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 2: injury with DeMarcus Lawrence and now this Lyle Collins suspension.

994
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 2: You get back Zach Martin, but you lose your left tackle.

995
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 2: That's never a good thing. I think people are going

996
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 2: to be enamored with the Cowboys and their offense and

997
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 2: the stories coming out that Dak was a great decision maker,

998
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: which he was on the Thursday opener audibling out of

999
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 2: I think more than half of the run calls that

1000
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 2: kellenm Moore put out there, put the Cowboys into good spots,

1001
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 2: was throwing the ball all over the field, did a

1002
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 2: great job. But I don't know in this spot. I'm

1003
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 2: again very bullish on the Chargers, and I was surprised

1004
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 2: last week so GridION Garible. We play in the Circus

1005
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: Sports million contests and the Washington football team was a

1006
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 2: top five popular pick last week, and that was puzzling

1007
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 2: to me. I just think the Chargers team is really good.

1008
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 2: Herbert is already I think a top ten quarterback. He

1009
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 2: just stands in there on those third downs, makes really

1010
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 2: tough throws, throws outside the number he can make, and

1011
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 2: Lombardy is going to be able to put him in

1012
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 2: positions that Anthony Lynn didn't last year in scheming up

1013
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 2: a better offensive plan than with the former charge head

1014
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 2: coach was able to do. I don't love the line

1015
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 2: move again. This is another one where hey, if you

1016
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,919
Speaker 2: got out Sunday night Monday morning, you grab the two,

1017
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 2: you grab the two before this got two and above three. Congratulations.

1018
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 2: But I still think that if you were to make

1019
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 2: me select the side here, it would be the Chargers. Yeah,

1020
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 2: I think that. Yeah, I think the Dallas defense is

1021
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 2: that bad and that Brandon Staley will just be able

1022
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 2: to do enough to limit this awesome Cowboys offense.

1023
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 1: And once again you are not on the side of

1024
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:35,880
Speaker 1: the majority eighty two percent taking the Cowboys eighteen percent.

1025
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: Which shows just how monumental that move is. Oh yeah,

1026
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 2: if eighty percent are on the Cowboys and the line

1027
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: goes from two to three and a.

1028
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 1: Half, yeah, all right, let's go to the Chiefs visiting

1029
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens Sunday night football. I believe the Ravens are

1030
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: now getting three and a half. There were three when

1031
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: I checked on Sunday night, I think before the or

1032
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,839
Speaker 1: a Monday night before the Ravens game. So getting three

1033
00:48:57,840 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: and a half at home against Chiefs, what do you think?

1034
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:02,240
Speaker 2: I think the best spot here is actually the under.

1035
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 2: I think the last I saw was fifty five to

1036
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half.

1037
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus right now is fifty four and a half.

1038
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 2: I don't know that, Okay, So yeah, so it's coming down,

1039
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 2: So my inclinations are coming through there. I think John

1040
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 2: Harbaugh will be smart enough to know that the traditional

1041
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,959
Speaker 2: style of blitzing and going ham and throwing the kitchen

1042
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 2: seek at Patrick Mahomes, it's just not going to work.

1043
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 2: So play a little bit back, play some too deep,

1044
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 2: keep things in front of you, keep the pace of

1045
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 2: the game slower. And we know on offense that Baltimore

1046
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 2: is not going to be throwing the ball all over

1047
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 2: the pitch. They don't have the horses to do so.

1048
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 2: And Lamar Jackson's strength is certainly not throwing the ball.

1049
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 2: So I think we're going to see a lot of

1050
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: controlled pace running and even on defense, a little less

1051
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 2: aggressiveness from Baltimore. So I think the unders to play

1052
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,280
Speaker 2: in this spot. I've just seen this so many times

1053
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,240
Speaker 2: where I've wanted to take a good team getting points

1054
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 2: at home against the Chiefs and I've just ended up

1055
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 2: with egg on my face.

1056
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, I can't do it. I think that's

1057
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 1: spread probably a stay away from me. But it's a

1058
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 1: good point on the total, I mean, and I think

1059
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: that that's what the Ravens are going to want to,

1060
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 1: you know, do, in order to limit what Mahomes can do.

1061
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 1: Last one Packers at home Monday Night football, eleven point favorites,

1062
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: embarrassed by the Saints. What do you think?

1063
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 2: I mean, who's playing corner for the Lions.

1064
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 1: I don't want it. I know Kuda's out for the year,

1065
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 1: it's just it's bad.

1066
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 2: The I think for the season, the Lions, like they

1067
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 2: showed last week, are going to be a team that

1068
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,279
Speaker 2: doesn't tend to quit. Right when your head coach is

1069
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: the guy biting off kneecaps and taking baseball bat sessions.

1070
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: I don't think this is a team that's going to

1071
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 2: be laying over. So I think there's going to be

1072
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 2: a lot of double digit spots for the Lions this

1073
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 2: season where they are the right side, the game is

1074
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 2: a lot closer, and just because they're like three to

1075
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 2: ten or whatever, everyone's still going to be clicking the

1076
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 2: other side while the Lions have like an above average

1077
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 2: ats spread. But this is not the spot. Rogers off

1078
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 2: a loss, completely embarrassed at home Lambeau night game. Yeah,

1079
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: you cannot find me clicking the Lions enough. One.

1080
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:08,399
Speaker 1: I'll take the Packers and yeah, there's a backdoor cover possibility.

1081
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 1: I don't care. I will own that. I think that

1082
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 1: this is just gonna be a really really, really really

1083
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 1: angry Packers team, and I think they will learn from

1084
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 1: what they saw last week, which in part was due

1085
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 1: to the fact that they had some injuries on defense

1086
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:23,919
Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers, but in part was due

1087
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 1: to the fact that the Lions just you know, you're

1088
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 1: able to dump it off to the running backs. I

1089
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 1: think they'll know, you know that there are no wide

1090
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 1: receivers that Dared Goff is going to try to throw

1091
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,839
Speaker 1: to you. Blanket T J. Hockinson, you have, you know,

1092
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 1: you have guys waiting for those running backs out of

1093
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: the backfield. I think that they will hold on beyond

1094
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,359
Speaker 1: the back door cover. So I do like the Packers here,

1095
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:45,720
Speaker 1: I lean that way, But yeah, I fear for Detroit

1096
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: in that game. Let's very briefly recap what our actual

1097
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:50,840
Speaker 1: you know, our top six picks are. You're taking the

1098
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 1: Panthers getting three and a half again from the Saints.

1099
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: You were taking the Jaguars, you brave, Brave sould getting

1100
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 1: six from the Broncos, And you were taking the Texans

1101
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 1: and the branch under forty seven and a half. And

1102
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: I am taking the Vikings getting three and a half

1103
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,760
Speaker 1: from the Cardinals, the Titans getting five and a half

1104
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: from the Seahawks, and the Dolphins getting three and a

1105
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 1: half from the Bills, all underdogs for us. For our

1106
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 1: official picks for the over under I love it. This

1107
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: is the week, This is the week for the underdogs,

1108
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 1: for the bounce back, rich to or fantastic guests. I

1109
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 1: missed talking to you. It was good to catch up.

1110
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,479
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they can find you and your work.

1111
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, great to be here. Grid Iron Gamble, you can

1112
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 2: find it on any podcatter, Spotify, Stitcher, Apple. We do

1113
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: our weekly Circa Sports Million selections and then we recap those,

1114
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 2: and we actually do a good recap. Donnie Peters is

1115
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 2: a great recap of the Las Vegas contests as a whole.

1116
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,240
Speaker 2: You know who the leaders are, who scored what points

1117
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 2: last week, So check that out.

1118
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: How'd you do last week? Out of curiosity in the circa.

1119
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 2: So we have two entries. We went two and three

1120
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 2: on both of them. We had Baltimore minus four to

1121
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 2: close out the week on Monday night. The fact that

1122
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,320
Speaker 2: they were up two point two yards for play at halftime,

1123
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 2: which if you if you divide yards for play by

1124
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: point one five, you tend to get the amount of

1125
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 2: points that a team should be ahead. So they were

1126
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 2: projected to be ahead sixteen at that they were not.

1127
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 1: They were not. Yeah that stinks, but two and three

1128
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: in one of those contests that doesn't bury you whatsoever.

1129
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, early too, so.

1130
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially just avoid the big one and four, zero

1131
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 1: and five weeks should be fine, all right. Anyway, thank

1132
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 1: you so much for coming by. You guys know this

1133
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 1: by now. On Monday, we'll be back taking an early

1134
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 1: look at the lines, and later on we'll have the

1135
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 1: College Football which dropped yesterday college Football podcast breaking down

1136
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 1: each week. Then we follow up with our best bets here.

1137
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,800
Speaker 1: Thank you again, download listen anywhere you subscribe to podcasts,

1138
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, cast box Ley Review as well, and we

1139
00:53:44,440 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 1: will talk to again in a couple of days.