1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:10,559
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: Daybak podcast, available every morning on Apples, Spotify, or wherever

3
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,720
Speaker 1: you listen. It's Monday, the twelfth of February. I'm Caroline HEPK.

4
00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Trump's NATO comments

5
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,560
Speaker 2: spark fears of what a second presidential term may mean

6
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:26,840
Speaker 2: for America's allies.

7
00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,880
Speaker 1: Israel strikes Gaz's southern city of Raffa, where more than

8
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,920
Speaker 1: a million people are thought to be sheltering.

9
00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,320
Speaker 2: And another headache for Elon musk Ukrainian intelligence says Russian

10
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,200
Speaker 2: forces are increasingly using starlink terminals on the front line.

11
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,599
Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

12
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,960
Speaker 2: NATO says it expects the US to remain a strong

13
00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,519
Speaker 2: and committed ally whoever wins the presidential election. The statement

14
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,720
Speaker 2: comes after Donald Trump suggested countries who don't pay their

15
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 2: way are delinquent and shouldn't be protected. Here's what they're

16
00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 2: leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination told a campaign

17
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 2: rally in South Carolina over the weekend.

18
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,880
Speaker 3: One of the presidents of a big country stood up said, well, sir,

19
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,320
Speaker 3: if we don't pay, and we're attacked by Russia. Will

20
00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 3: you protect us? I said, you didn't pay, You're delinquent.

21
00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,680
Speaker 3: You said yes, let's say that happened. No, I would

22
00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,280
Speaker 3: not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to

23
00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 3: do whatever the hell they want.

24
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 2: You got to pay. The revelation from the former president

25
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,120
Speaker 2: is renewed talk of what a second Trump term would

26
00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,319
Speaker 2: mean for allies has Boinberg reported last week. The EU

27
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 2: has quietly started preparing an impact assessment of the consequences

28
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,640
Speaker 2: of the US presidential election, with a particular focus on

29
00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 2: what a Trump victory would mean.

30
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,399
Speaker 1: Responding to Trump, the NATO Sextuary General Yain Stoltenberg said

31
00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 1: in a statement that any attack on the thirty one

32
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 1: military allies would be met with a united and forceful response,

33
00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 1: and Britain's Security Minister Tom Tugandat says that while he

34
00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,559
Speaker 1: expects the US to stand by his allies, other member

35
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,960
Speaker 1: states also need to meet their commitments.

36
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,560
Speaker 4: I'm confident that the American people have consistently stood by

37
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,560
Speaker 4: allies in Europe when the time has needed it, and

38
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 4: I hope very much that all of us will meet

39
00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,840
Speaker 4: our two percent targets, just as the UK does to

40
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 4: make sure that we are bearing our share of the burden.

41
00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,120
Speaker 1: TOM two can doubt referring there to the pledge by

42
00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,840
Speaker 1: NATO members to spend at least two percent of their

43
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:26,240
Speaker 1: gross domestic product on defense and abide by the principle

44
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,320
Speaker 1: that an attack on one is an attack on all.

45
00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 2: The Israeli military has conducted strikes on the city of

46
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,960
Speaker 2: Rafa and the southern Gaza Strip, where more than a

47
00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,400
Speaker 2: million people have sought shelter from the fighting. The attacks

48
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:43,560
Speaker 2: come after President Biden urged his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Nettaya,

49
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,240
Speaker 2: who not to take action without a credible and executable

50
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,799
Speaker 2: plan for the safety of civilians. The phone call between

51
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,000
Speaker 2: the two men comes after Netanyah, who told ABC News

52
00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,800
Speaker 2: that Israel is working on a plan to keep civilians

53
00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,080
Speaker 2: in Gaza safe.

54
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,400
Speaker 5: Well, Rafa is a very small percentage of Gaza, and

55
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,280
Speaker 5: I think it's about ten percent or fifteen percent. I

56
00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,320
Speaker 5: mean the estimates with a very north of Gaza that

57
00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,480
Speaker 5: has already been cleared. Well, there there's an estimate one

58
00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,200
Speaker 5: point four million people in that area right now.

59
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,280
Speaker 3: And if they can't just disappear, where are they supposed

60
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:13,520
Speaker 3: to go?

61
00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 5: Now? Well, the areas that we've cleared north of Rafa.

62
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,360
Speaker 5: Are plenty of areas there, but we're working out a

63
00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:21,400
Speaker 5: detailed plan to do so.

64
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,880
Speaker 2: Benjamin Etteia, who there. The UK's Foreign Secretary, David Cameron,

65
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,680
Speaker 2: also weighed in on the risk of civilian casualties, saying

66
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,240
Speaker 2: he's deeply concerned about the prospect of an expanded Israeli

67
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 2: military offensive targeting Rafa. Separately, Israel says that has rescued

68
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,680
Speaker 2: two hostages from captivity in an operation in Rafa. The

69
00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,360
Speaker 2: Israelis who are kidnapped in the October seventh attacks by

70
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:48,160
Speaker 2: Hamas militants authorities says both were in a good medical condition.

71
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:53,240
Speaker 1: Ukraine says that Russia is using Elon Musk's Starlink services

72
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,240
Speaker 1: on the front line. The country's military intelligence services are

73
00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:02,560
Speaker 1: citing intercepted conversations between Russian troops in the occupied Donetsk

74
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,040
Speaker 1: region of eastern Ukraine as evidence that use of the

75
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:10,320
Speaker 1: technology is becoming systematic. In response, Starling said that it

76
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 1: isn't active in Russia. In a statement on Musk's x

77
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,520
Speaker 1: social media platform, but it highlights Kiev's uneasy relationship with

78
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,480
Speaker 1: Elon Musk's internet service.

79
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 2: NatWest is planning to pay lower bonuses ahead of a

80
00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:27,120
Speaker 2: possible retail share offer. According to sky News reports, the

81
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 2: lender is preparing to pay seventeen million pounds less in

82
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,720
Speaker 2: rewards than in twenty twenty three. The news comes as

83
00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 2: advisors including Goldban Sachs, have been hired to explore a

84
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,279
Speaker 2: retail offering of the government's stake in the bank, sixteen

85
00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 2: years after RBS was bailed out in the global financial crisis.

86
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,000
Speaker 2: UK Government Investments, the treasury owned company that holds a

87
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,120
Speaker 2: thirty five percent stake in the lender, says a retail

88
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,600
Speaker 2: offering could come as early as June.

89
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,479
Speaker 1: And finally, the Kansas City Chiefs have won the Super Bowl,

90
00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 1: beating the San Francisco forty nine Ers twenty five to

91
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,200
Speaker 1: twenty two in overtime. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw the

92
00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 1: winning touchdown pass with three seconds left on the clock.

93
00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,679
Speaker 1: The Chiefs, who also won the biggest prize in American

94
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,960
Speaker 1: football last year, have now won three Super Bowl titles

95
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 1: in the past five years and established themselves as a dynasty.

96
00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 1: But the team, star Titan Travis Kelcey, says that they

97
00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:24,960
Speaker 1: want more.

98
00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,560
Speaker 5: You can call it a dinating, call it whatever you want.

99
00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,280
Speaker 5: All I know is that we're coming back next year

100
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 5: with our heart in the right mindset on trying to

101
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 5: get another one.

102
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,080
Speaker 2: I can tell you that right now.

103
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,520
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey there, who was joined on the field at

104
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 1: the end of the game by his girlfriend Taylor Swift.

105
00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 1: So yes, dynasty, dynasty. I would normally say dynaste, but

106
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,360
Speaker 1: dynasty of course because of the NFL. Now, in a moment,

107
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,479
Speaker 1: we'll discuss how European leaders are reacting to those comments

108
00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,240
Speaker 1: by the former president Donald Trump about defense spending huge

109
00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,240
Speaker 1: attention and focus on this the possibility of a second

110
00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,080
Speaker 1: Trump term. But first a bit more though on the

111
00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,880
Speaker 1: sports headline that you need to know this morning. Yes,

112
00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,640
Speaker 1: it was Taylor Swift. She won the Super Bowl.

113
00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,599
Speaker 2: Part part of I mean it is sort of vaguely

114
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,640
Speaker 2: out of body experience watching the Super Bowl from this

115
00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,600
Speaker 2: side of the Atlantic, and every year you see this

116
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:18,160
Speaker 2: like absolutely enormous obviously huge sporting event as well, but

117
00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,880
Speaker 2: it does. It's amazing what filters through I suppose I'm

118
00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:22,799
Speaker 2: thinking about, and that like the Taylor if you every

119
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,760
Speaker 2: single picture is of Taylor Swift that's at the Super Bowl.

120
00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,000
Speaker 2: If you, if you're looking through headlines, this morning, you

121
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,160
Speaker 2: would have thought that she was on the field. Is that?

122
00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,919
Speaker 1: And the halftime and you know the halftime events and

123
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,520
Speaker 1: entertainment and the adverts. Of course that's the thing that

124
00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:37,760
Speaker 1: really translates into Europe.

125
00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,080
Speaker 2: Yes, there's sur prise guest for the halftime act, so

126
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 2: I'm sure we knew about Alicia Keys and will I

127
00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,679
Speaker 2: Am were there as well. Of course, the advertising story

128
00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,039
Speaker 2: is part of it as well.

129
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:48,440
Speaker 1: Huge amounts of money spence.

130
00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,680
Speaker 2: We've been speaking to the CEO of Paramount actually a

131
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,000
Speaker 2: bout backish about this, and even he was admitting that

132
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,719
Speaker 2: Taylor Swift has been part of the phenomenon that's drawn

133
00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,120
Speaker 2: more audiences to the NFL, that she's been an incremental

134
00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,159
Speaker 2: addition that's been able to bring people. And they're saying

135
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,440
Speaker 2: that it's going to be a high watermark for advertising

136
00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 2: spending for the Super Bowl as well.

137
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's seven million dollars in terms of the

138
00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,880
Speaker 1: thirty second ad spot for this year's games. That's children's

139
00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:18,440
Speaker 1: thirty three thousand dollars per second. It's absolutely enormous amounts

140
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,840
Speaker 1: of money. But look, the reach is huge in the

141
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,000
Speaker 1: US and almost everybody in America watches it. But actually

142
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,840
Speaker 1: it's those ads I think translate globally and end up

143
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:28,440
Speaker 1: going viral.

144
00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,040
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you know, it was the who's who

145
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 2: of celebrity world going through the ads as well. I

146
00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 2: mean they likes you know, Ben Affleck, Jennifer Aniston, the

147
00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,800
Speaker 2: Beckhams were in there as well. For an as Christopher Walken,

148
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,160
Speaker 2: I was starting a couple of this morning Christoper Walker

149
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:43,720
Speaker 2: was actually very funny because a lot of people doing

150
00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,520
Speaker 2: impressions of Christopher Walking, which is which is one of

151
00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:47,000
Speaker 2: the things that.

152
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,800
Speaker 1: I think you've become a legend when that happens.

153
00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah, I mean it's a question of flattery there

154
00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,119
Speaker 2: as well. But anyway, so even if you weren't watching

155
00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,600
Speaker 2: what was happening on the page, that was plenty else

156
00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:56,760
Speaker 2: to be entertained by the Super Bowl.

157
00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely. Okay, so that was over the weekend. Let's

158
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,520
Speaker 1: send our attention though, to matters well significantly more serious.

159
00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's comments also at the weekend in a rally

160
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 1: in the United States that he once told a European

161
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 1: leader that he would abandon NATO members to a Russian

162
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,560
Speaker 1: invasion if they hadn't met defense spending commitments. Now, this

163
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 1: of course has renewed talk about what a second Trump

164
00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 1: term might mean for allies and joining us now to discuss,

165
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:29,280
Speaker 1: as Bloomberg's EMEA News director Roslyn matheson Good Morning was,

166
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,320
Speaker 1: first of all, let's just unpack and understand exactly what

167
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,880
Speaker 1: Trump was saying about Native because he was referring back

168
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,280
Speaker 1: to a conversation that he had had previously.

169
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,920
Speaker 6: Well, that's right in a way. He's referred to these

170
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 6: comments a number of times over the years. He claims

171
00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 6: that back when he was president, in one of his

172
00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 6: many conversations with unnamed European leaders and officials, that he

173
00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 6: said to know, if they didn't pick up their game

174
00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:56,680
Speaker 6: in terms of NATO spending their own defense commitments towards NATO,

175
00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,319
Speaker 6: that you know, what would what would he allow Russia

176
00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 6: to do? Said, well, thing they want, really, And that's

177
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,320
Speaker 6: his version of those events, and there's been as semblance

178
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,400
Speaker 6: of that floating around in various reports for some years.

179
00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,800
Speaker 6: The European officials and leaders that we've spoken to have

180
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 6: a different view on that. They don't recall him saying

181
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,720
Speaker 6: that exactly. Obviously, they recall tense conversations over defense spending

182
00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 6: in general. Everyone can remember that Donald Trump threatened to

183
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,360
Speaker 6: pull out of NATO entirely, and certainly there were some

184
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 6: tough moments about NATO's spending and the overall idea of

185
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 6: collective defense. But did he really say that he allowed

186
00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,559
Speaker 6: Ladimir Putin to come into Europe and ever whatever way

187
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,200
Speaker 6: he wanted. That's up for dispute. But obviously, you know,

188
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:38,800
Speaker 6: the key thing here is what does it tell us

189
00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 6: about what a second Donald Trump presidency might look like?

190
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 6: Is this in the ether again, because he's likely to

191
00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 6: be the Republican nominee for president.

192
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,559
Speaker 2: The comments rock condemnation from Biden, from other European allies.

193
00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 2: But the Republicans who support Donald Trump in these positions, well,

194
00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 2: that's right.

195
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 6: It's interesting because if you look at, for example, the

196
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,439
Speaker 6: recent attack on US troops in Jordan, there were some

197
00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 6: Republicans who were calling immediately for the US to attack

198
00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,520
Speaker 6: Iran directly. There were other Republicans saying, oh, don't do that,

199
00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:12,040
Speaker 6: because you're going to draw us into conflicts we don't

200
00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 6: want a part of. And that's probably the same for Europe.

201
00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,720
Speaker 6: There are some Republicans who think the US has to

202
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,120
Speaker 6: stand up to Russia, the US has to stand up

203
00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,439
Speaker 6: to China, as well in Asia for example, and has

204
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,240
Speaker 6: to sort of be there present on the global stage,

205
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,200
Speaker 6: particularly pushing these other countries back. There are others who

206
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 6: say it's not our business anymore. We can't be solving

207
00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,560
Speaker 6: the world's problems for them, and we can't be involved

208
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:35,280
Speaker 6: in these fights.

209
00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:41,600
Speaker 1: European leaders have been dealing with this latest set of commentary,

210
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,360
Speaker 1: though in a more robust way, although it still does

211
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:50,040
Speaker 1: seem quite extraordinary in the sense that it highlights the

212
00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,040
Speaker 1: kind of fracturing really of what has been seventy five

213
00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 1: years post World War Two, of the sort of current

214
00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:56,640
Speaker 1: status quo.

215
00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,000
Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting because again only years ago that the

216
00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:05,439
Speaker 6: French president Emmanuel Macron called NATO Braindad, and then obviously

217
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 6: in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO's really

218
00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,439
Speaker 6: come to the fore, both in terms of supporting Ukraine

219
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:17,319
Speaker 6: against Russia, supplying it with weapons and training and rallying

220
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,199
Speaker 6: you know, European nations in the US and other allies

221
00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:23,120
Speaker 6: behind that. So arguably NATO has been having a moment

222
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 6: in the past few years. The question is what's the

223
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,839
Speaker 6: future of NATO, And certainly, you know, European countries are

224
00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 6: looking at the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency

225
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,120
Speaker 6: and does that mean at some point that they're on

226
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,760
Speaker 6: their own and do they have to look to their

227
00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 6: own defense and can they manage that on their own?

228
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 6: And is there a future where NATO doesn't exist? And

229
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,960
Speaker 6: beyond you know, Ukraine and Russia itself, what does that

230
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,120
Speaker 6: mean for example, for Turkey, which is also another key

231
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,240
Speaker 6: NATO state but a pretty uneasy member of NATO at times.

232
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,880
Speaker 2: How does this feed into the debate over funding for

233
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 2: aid for Ukraine and the United States. You know, we

234
00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,160
Speaker 2: know that it's been extremely difficult to try and get

235
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,240
Speaker 2: any sort of bipart of an agreement there, and you

236
00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,280
Speaker 2: know that Trump position here is going to be key

237
00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,800
Speaker 2: going into the election and beyond.

238
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,160
Speaker 6: Well, that's right, it's coming at a very tense time,

239
00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,640
Speaker 6: as you said in Washington over support for Ukraine, very

240
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,480
Speaker 6: bogged down trying to get aid packages through Congress, particularly

241
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 6: military aid as well as financial aident.

242
00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:24,880
Speaker 2: You can see the.

243
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,640
Speaker 6: Efforts by the US President Joe Biden to try and

244
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,959
Speaker 6: force that through, to really front load aid before it

245
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,960
Speaker 6: gets too far into the election cycle. But really a

246
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,200
Speaker 6: strong sense in the US at the moment of you know,

247
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,319
Speaker 6: are we just continuing to support Ukraine financially and militarily,

248
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,760
Speaker 6: and is that actually achieving anything? And what do we

249
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 6: need to be doing from here? And you see those

250
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,200
Speaker 6: questions being raised also in Europe, I would add, but

251
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 6: perhaps not quite as robustly, but certainly there's a sense

252
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,800
Speaker 6: that Ukraine, you know, time is not on its side.

253
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,160
Speaker 1: The EU and European countries who are parts of so

254
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,400
Speaker 1: have been increasing military spending and sort of capabilities. You know,

255
00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,640
Speaker 1: critics will say that sort of Trump's comments are dangerous

256
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,160
Speaker 1: in and of themselves, but supporters might argue, well, you

257
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,360
Speaker 1: do need to spend more for your own self defense.

258
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:21,520
Speaker 1: How far aways you really form strategic autonomy being able

259
00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:23,360
Speaker 1: to sort of stand alone as.

260
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 6: It were, Well, these are certainly the words that Emmanumal

261
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,400
Speaker 6: Kron again likes to use. He talks a lot about

262
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 6: strategic autonomy. You're relying on itself for defense, and you know,

263
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,600
Speaker 6: there has been a pickup. We can see factories that

264
00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 6: were pretty idle now starting to produce ammunition again across

265
00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,720
Speaker 6: different countries in Europe. But this is not a sector

266
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,880
Speaker 6: that turns on a dime. And obviously they've failed to

267
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 6: gather enough ammunition to meet their commitments to Ukraine. You

268
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,760
Speaker 6: have large defense companies that saying we operate only a

269
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,960
Speaker 6: long term contracts. We want some certainty to hear about

270
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,560
Speaker 6: what future warfall warfare might look like before we commit

271
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,839
Speaker 6: to all these changes. And while defense spending has picked up,

272
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,199
Speaker 6: and certainly defense spending as a proportion for NATO was

273
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,400
Speaker 6: picked up, it's arguably decades away before Europe could say

274
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,320
Speaker 6: that it's truly self reliant. Certainly, you just look at

275
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,560
Speaker 6: the large amount of large number of US troops on

276
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,320
Speaker 6: the ground across Europe at various bass the amount of

277
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:24,160
Speaker 6: US equipment that's in Europe, and you have to say

278
00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,160
Speaker 6: that Europe's probably some distance from self autonomy on that front.

279
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 2: Another story that we're following today os of course, the

280
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:31,560
Speaker 2: latest developments in the Middle East as well with the

281
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 2: Israel Hamas. What are the thoughts around what a Trump

282
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,320
Speaker 2: presidency could mean for the US role in the Middle East.

283
00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 6: Well, if you look back again to Donald Trump and

284
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,480
Speaker 6: in his first presidency and his close friendship at the

285
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 6: time with the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, certainly was a

286
00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,360
Speaker 6: very strong advocate for him, but that seems to have

287
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 6: cooled off a little bit, and you know, Donald Trump

288
00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 6: again has been a bit reluctant to wade into the

289
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 6: issue of the Israeli war against Tamas in Gaza. L

290
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,440
Speaker 6: Like Ukraine, he seems to think that he could fix

291
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:10,920
Speaker 6: it in a matter of days if he came into power. Fundamentally,

292
00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 6: is he interested in the US being involved in foreign conflicts? No,

293
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,360
Speaker 6: he's not, and that's why he would he would sort

294
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,800
Speaker 6: of look, according to him, to end these various wars.

295
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,680
Speaker 6: Regardless of what the US is saying and doing and

296
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 6: cleaning under the current administration, Israel is determined to go

297
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 6: its own way. That's very clear from Benjamin Netanyahu again

298
00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,040
Speaker 6: in recent days, despite the comments from the US, the

299
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,640
Speaker 6: UK and others, despite Joe Biden saying his war has

300
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 6: gone over the top in Gaza, he says he's going

301
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 6: to continue with his plans for a full ground assault

302
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 6: on Rafa, which is the border near the border crossing

303
00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 6: with Egypt, where estimates of over a million people are

304
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 6: gathered and great concerns around their safety. So, in a way,

305
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:00,760
Speaker 6: whether it's Donald Trump or Joe Bide and that the

306
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,400
Speaker 6: US Israel relationship seems to have changed for good.

307
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Europe your morning brief on the

308
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

309
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

310
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

311
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,

312
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,280
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

313
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,120
Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

314
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

315
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka.

316
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for

317
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,200
Speaker 2: all the news you need to start your day right

318
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:42,000
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe