WEBVTT - Rates, Trump, Banks, CPI, and Consumers 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:05.280 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:23.320 All right, so we had the CPI print today pretty 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.200 much I think what most people were looking for. Certainly consensus, 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:29.479 certainly gives some more credence to the argument that the 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:32.040 Fed can pause if it wants to. Let's check in 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.760 with somebody who pays close attention to this stuff, Ira Jersey, 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.920 chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Ira, 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.640 what's your takeaway from the inflation print we saw today? 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.320 Yeah, obviously, you've know, you guys have talked about it 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.440 at nauseum here a little bit. Pretty much as expected. 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:52.839 It doesn't really leave a whole lot of doubt as 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:56.080 to what's going to happen tomorrow. I think that, you know, 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:58.400 if we had seen something where you get a point 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:01.200 five or a point six print on uh on on 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:04.120 the core numbers, then maybe the Fed would would hike tomorrow, 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.559 but they've signaled that they're probably going to skip tomorrow's meeting. 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:10.440 I think the bigger the bigger thing that today's data 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.440 does for us is really leaves in doubt what then 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:15.319 is going to happen in July, so that you know, 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:18.640 the market was pricing for a near certainty that they 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:20.800 were going to skip June and then hike in July. 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:23.600 But now you know, I think that we have to 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:27.640 reassess that uh, that the certainty that the Fed is 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.000 going to go in UH in July, and the market 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.160 started to kind of move away at least a little 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.399 bit from that possibility at this point. 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.119 So irauld talk to us about when we're looking at 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:40.119 this speculation that's happening in the bond market and how 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.440 it's at a record when you are looking at treasury 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.320 features ahead of the FED meeting, break it down as 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.840 far as what is happening with the positioning there. 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.559 Yeah, there's a lot of so so there's record short 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:54.680 positioning by speculators and UH in the treasury market basically 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.320 everyone short duration. So the so the fact that you 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.000 actually have a little bit of a selloff going on 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:01.960 right here right now is a little bit surprising, But 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:04.880 typically what happens is that you know, this positioning data 0:02:04.920 --> 0:02:07.720 doesn't necessarily give you a lot of information about what 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.600 direction the market's going to go. You know that the 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.920 fact that people are very short just means in particular 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:16.239 that as the market sells off that you could see 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.240 some short covering, and that it just gets harder and 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:22.600 harder for moves in the direction that the future's positioning is. 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.600 But we have to keep in mind too that that 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:28.800 these some of this positioning in a way could be 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:32.400 a hedge to another risk that some of these levered 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:36.320 investors that that are primarily short have on. So for example, 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.760 if their long corporate bonds, for example, they could be 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:42.120 short some treasuries as and and treasury futures as kind 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.359 of a hedge to that. Or could be that they're 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:48.400 short equities or long equities rather and you know short 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.359 rates as well. You know that that's possible too. So 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:53.800 so it's a little bit hard to discern with this 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:58.400 future's positioning exactly what's going on with the overall strength 0:02:58.440 --> 0:02:59.880 of the market. But I do think that it means 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.640 it's going to get harder and harder to for the 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.400 market to sell off on as dramatically as it has, 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.560 and you could wind up seeing on a rally, You 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:09.800 could wind up seeing massive rallies because a lot of 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:11.600 these shorts could get covered very quickly. 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.560 Shorting US treasures isn't that kind of un American? How 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:21.399 often does that happen? I mean, what who does that? 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.560 There's been been a lot of people short treasuries, you know, 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.600 for the better part of you know, two years now, really, 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:30.240 you know, just and you know part of part of 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.240 the reason is that when interest rates are going up, 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:34.200 you don't want to be long, right, and you know, 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.760 there's there's ways to make money. And if you look 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:41.120 at that, even though you know, the Bloomberg Treasury Index 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.080 has been had record losses over the last eighteen months, 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:48.080 even worse than nineteen seventies and eighties, even though interest 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.640 rates have went up way more back then, right back 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:53.520 during the you know, nineteen seventy eight to nineteen eighty one, 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.920 you actually had interest rates go up ten percent, right, 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:57.440 and we've only seen interest rates go up you know, 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:01.240 four and a half five percent now here. But there's 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:05.480 some bond math involved, because the relationship between the price 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.000 of a bond and the yield and yield moves is 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:10.400 much much higher now, so you get a little move 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.520 in in a yield of a bond, and it's more 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:16.960 in dollar price today than it was back in the 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:21.720 nineteen nineteen seventies and eighties. So even though we've had 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.920 these massive losses, a lot of people have outperformed. So 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:29.200 when you look at active managers in bond funds, both 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.400 bond mutual funds and actively managed ETFs, you actually see 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.800 significant outperformance compared to disease. Even though you now have 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:39.280 some people you know, still moving to passive. Within the 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:44.880 ETF world, the active managers have have done very well 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:49.680 by being short treasuries or underweight treasury securities in their portfolios. 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.279 Hey, Ira, I've had some traders talk to me about 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.280 how whenever they're shorting treasuries, especially if you're looking at 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:57.359 the tenure, it was more of the expectations that yield 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.560 to move higher, but then the caveat being so extreme 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.480 position may have the counter effect and then end up 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.440 having to push yield lower. Do you think that's plausible? 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:09.120 Well, I think it has more to do with the 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:12.200 volatility and in the directionality of the market. So, like 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.040 I mentioned, if if people weren't as short as they 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:17.520 are now with things like treasury futures, we might have 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:21.400 seen even even a bigger sell off today than we've 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.240 seen so far. You know, ten years yields, you know, 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.560 higher by five ish basis points on the day. But 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:29.520 I think it's when you go the other way and 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.799 you get that short covering that you wind up really 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:35.080 seeing like position squaring and uh and and you know 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.599 what would be you think would be a five base 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:39.440 point move can turn into a ten or twelve basis 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:41.560 point move in a hurry. And we've seen quite a 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:44.279 lot of that over the over the last couple of years, 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.000 where you get this these extreme positioning and then you 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:50.919 get this massive snapbacks as as the market kind of 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:55.200 recalibrates their their thinking and and you know, again like 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:57.359 if if you know, I think a big part of 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.520 the reason why you see some of the short base 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.680 and in things like duration is I do suspect that 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:04.800 there's a lot of people who are in interest rates steepeners. 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:05.000 Now. 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.080 People were in flattening trades for a very long time 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.720 where they were long say ten years or thirty year 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:13.120 securities and then they were short twos and fives. I 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.760 think I think that's starting to flip as we get 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.280 toward the end of the fed's hiking cycle, because the 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.400 next move, and I do concur with this, the next 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:23.320 move is likely to be a very significant steepening of 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.119 the yield or un inversion of the yield curve at least, 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.880 so you wind up with an environment where people are 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:31.920 going to be buying two year, three year, five year 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.640 notes and then want to be short or or underweight 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:37.599 ten year and thirty year securities. 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.599 Hira, what would surprise you tomorrow from FED Chairman jpal 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:41.919 As comments, I. 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:44.920 Think if he's I think if he's extremely hawkish, would 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:47.920 would surprise me, you know, given some of the some 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.200 of the data that we've received. Yes, the employment data 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.159 was pretty solid, but a lot of the other data 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.960 that we've seen everywhere, from some sales data as well 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.360 as some of the ism surveys and the leading economic 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:02.040 indicator something all been pretty poor and actually are very 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.120 close to recessionary type levels. So so so I think 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.480 if he was very hawkish tomorrow, that would be a surprise, 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:10.800 certainly if he was more hawkish than he was last month. 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.000 So I'm looking very closely at our at at at 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:18.040 our FED sentiment indicator. So after he after J. Powell 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.000 gives his opening remarks from the press conference, you know 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:25.160 we're going to run our natural language processing model and yeah, 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:25.640 you know take a. 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:29.239 Look as known as your juniors, Well. 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:30.200 Our data science team will. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.800 Yeah, I know we've got one of those MBA. 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:34.760 How much fun was it to see Ira last week 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:36.960 and the suspenders with the soccer all over? 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:37.680 Great? 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:39.760 He comes out of his cam every once in a while, 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.080 so we would be appreciate that, Ira Jersey, thanks so much. 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:45.320 I he covers all the interest rate strategy work for 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.800 Bloomberg Intelligence. I got a whole team, uh doing that 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.840 kind of stuff, and they've got some serious models. He's 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.640 got a model that kind of covers on a day 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.320 to day basis the receipts and the spending of the 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.880 US government. Amazing, Like I don't even have that for myself. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.440 He's got it for the entire US government. So we 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:05.960 knows when and if the US can afford to pay 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:07.440 their bill. So keep an eye on that. 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:12.120 You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:14.520 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern. 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.280 On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio. 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:19.280 App and the Bloomberg Business app or listen on demand 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:21.080 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:25.560 Jess Matt and Paul Sweeney Here in the Bloomberg Interactive 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.400 Brokers studio, Boy attention is going to be this afternoon 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:32.360 down in Miami, Florida, where President Trump will be arranged. Yeah, 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.280 we want to get the kind of a roundtable this 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:36.200 discussion here and kind of catch it from a couple 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:39.800 of different angles. So we welcome Wendy Schuler Brown University professor. 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:43.840 She joins us here, as does Kaylee Lines. She joins us. 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:45.839 She is in Miami at the courthouse. Of course, she 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:49.719 covers the White House for Bloomberg Television. We appreciate her 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.080 time on a busy, busy day. Wendy, let's start with you. 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.880 I mean, it doesn't happen every day that former president 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:59.600 gets arraigned on federal charges. 0:08:59.640 --> 0:08:59.760 Here. 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:03.120 Do you expect this to mean for President Trump and 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.959 potentially another run for the presidency? 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.320 Well, good morning. In the short term, it's it's good 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:13.240 for Donald Trump with his base and donations. They expect 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.600 they're holding a fundraiser, I believe, even this evening, and 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.920 they expect to raise a lot of money off this 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.640 and really continue to keep his name in the news. 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.680 I mean, there is no publicity that Donald Trump doesn't like, 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.760 and so I think in the short run, you know, 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:31.880 he'll benefit in some way from this, But in the 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:35.360 longer run, it's just another or an additional liability to 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:39.280 his candidacy, particularly the broader Republican Party, and I don't 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.200 see where it does him any favors with the key 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:43.800 independent voters he'd need to win the general. But even 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.200 in state primaries across the country, you can register and 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.200 change your party registration from independent to Republican. So the 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:54.240 independents wanted to shape the Republican nomination process. They can 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.040 do that and haven't been big fans of the president 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.920 in recent the former president in recent elections. So that's 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.040 it's a liability. I think that's sort of deep and 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.440 persistent for Donald Trump's longer term prospects. 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.240 Kaylee, I want to bring you into this conversation set 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:09.480 the scene for us. What are things shaping up heading 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:10.439 into this afternoon. 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.040 Well, I'm at the outside the courthouse right now, and 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.960 there are dozens and dozens of media tents like the 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.319 one I am in for Bluebert. There is a very 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:22.160 high police presence, but there isn't yet at this point. 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.520 It seems to be a lot of protesters, but they 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:27.920 are prepared for potentially a lot to be here over 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.000 the course of today. The Miami Police Chief is that 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:32.640 it could be anywhere between five thousand and fifty thousand 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.640 supporters of President Trump who show out today, as he 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.000 had calls on them to do. He of course had 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.000 posted on true social over the weekend, I'll see you 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.160 in Miami on Tuesday. He had in an interview with 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:45.480 Roger Stone on radio over the weekend as well, so 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:47.920 that people need to come out and keep fully protest. 0:10:48.000 --> 0:10:49.560 So we'll be on watch for that. And of course 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:52.280 it's at three pm Eastern time, so about four and 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:54.560 a half hours from now. I think, if my math 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.840 is right, that the President will be showing up here, 0:10:57.920 --> 0:10:59.760 although we may not see him. He may enter under 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.280 grown to be arraigned on these federal charges. 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:06.040 What, Wendy, what do you make of some of the 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:08.720 I guess responses we've had from members of Congress. Some 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:13.120 have come out and supporting the president pretty wholeheartedly, and 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.720 some have not supported him. Some have been, like cenatored Romney, 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:19.680 been critical here. How do you expect this to play out. 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:22.920 Well, they're sort of dancing around it, right, They wanted 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.959 to can't alienate the Trump base, either whether you're currently 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.160 holding office and running or president you're just currently holding 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.640 office trying to get reelected, if you're a House member 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.360 in particular in twenty four, you're dancing around it. On 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.560 the other hand, you see that they're sort of trying 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.720 not to talk about the severity of the classification level 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.320 of the documents that were badly handled. So these are 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:47.760 really highly sensitive national security documents, and it gets to 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.760 the point of do you want this man in charge 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:53.240 of our national security? And then it's a legitimate point 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:55.920 and question to ask. People will get confused about the 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.080 number of indictments and the scope of authority, but at 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.000 the end of the day, he's got, you know, military 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:05.120 plans and nuclear secrets lying around the ballroom. You know, 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.440 that does not say I'm going to be responsible with 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.800 national security. And the Republicans want to keep the edge 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.640 that they think they have on national security. So there 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:14.800 does come a point, except for maybe through Jim Jordan 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:18.280 of Ohio, where you say, I can't really defend compromising 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:22.080 our national security from my own re election prospects. 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:25.680 Kayleie, how has the Biden administration responded so far? 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:30.000 Well, they really haven't at all. The President has really 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.679 tried to keep him his distance from this. When he's 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.400 been asked about that, he has set no comment on 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.760 the indictment because, of course, one of the narratives that 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.679 President former President Trump as well as Republicans have been 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.360 pushing is that this is politically motivated, that this is 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.760 a weaponization of the Justice Department. President Trump has said 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:51.319 that this is a corrupt Biden administration election interference at 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.840 the highest level. So to this point, President Biden has 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.040 tried to stay far away from this, let the Justice 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.800 Department do its work, and not really try to be 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:00.719 involved in this. 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:04.920 In any way, Kaylee Done in Miami, is there an 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.360 expectation that the president will be public here? Will there 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:10.440 be a public I'm not going to say a purp walk, 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:13.720 but will there be some public appearance by the president today? 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:15.200 Is part of this process? Do we know? 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:20.160 It really could go either way. The expectation though, is 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.640 that he will not be walking through the usual lobby 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.560 of this courthouse, that he's going to enter be an 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:28.960 underground garage and then head into the courthouse, so we 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.280 may not actually see him here physically. Where we will 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:35.000 see the president is after he finishes these proceedings in 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.080 Miami today. He's going to get back on his private plane, 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.560 fly from Miami back up to Bedminster in New Jersey, 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.000 and speak at his golf club there this evening at 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.720 eight fifteen pm Eastern time, and bold a donor event 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.440 as Wendy talks about his campaign is hoping celebrates two 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.880 million dollars at that event tonight, just hours after he 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.440 made history by being arraigned on federal criminal charges. This 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.120 is something we have never seen happen before, but it 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.200 could have the same effect as the indictments previously in 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.640 Manhattan earlier this year, that what it really accomplishes is 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:08.880 galvanizing his base and ultimately being away for him to thundering. 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:11.800 Wendy, what's the timetable here that we're talking about when 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.120 it comes to a potential indictment obviously like this, As 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:16.840 far as how long this could drag out for. 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.000 Well, that's a great question just because it gets to 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.800 the judge, right, this is the judge that appointed a 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.120 special master, you know, to sort of go over what 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:26.960 the Justice barman had done. In terms of the raid 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.720 the documents. You know, this judge got chastised for the 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.320 way she handled this case before by her you know, 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.240 sort of higher level judges on a panel. The question is, 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.720 you know, does she go buy the book here or 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.680 does she compromise the case in some way and does 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:42.600 she have to be removed from the case. I mean, 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:44.800 there's still a question mark about whether she actually ends 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.520 up being the presiding judge. You know, you've got setting 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:49.960 trial dates, you've got jury selection. You you know, these 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.520 trials and I mean multiple trials to the former president 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.560 will go, we'll move on, and you know they'll take 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:59.000 a long time. They'll drag out, which was good good 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.600 for Trump in terms of his ability. As Kelly's you know, 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:05.840 absolutely rightly suggesting, but there's a weariness, particularly among core voters, 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.760 and as I said, mechanically in the primaries next year, 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:10.640 you can have a lot of people who aren't core 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.400 Trump's supporters actually sign up to vote in the Republican primary. 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:16.640 Since Biden, if he's the nominee, you know, as he 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.080 stays healthy and all that stuff that we talk about, 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:20.920 there's not gonna be much of a contest on the 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.280 Democratic side. So You're going to see some shifting of 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.320 voters in that primary and this, I think this will 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.600 become a liability, particularly if he gets a lot of 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.320 really rowdy, slash violent people to protest this. That just 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:33.440 reminds people of January sixth, and I don't think that 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.680 does anybody good on the Republican side. 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.440 Wendy, If I'm running for the Republican nomination, how do 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:41.680 I play this thing that Trump has been in ditona 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:43.320 of federal crimes? 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.680 You know, you play it by basically trying and especially 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.000 in digital advertising on social media platforms, to saying, look, 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.960 I support everything this guy you know did, I'm loyal, 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.440 but he's not the guy anymore. It's too chaotic, it's 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:01.520 too disruptive, you can't usin with national security. Try to 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.880 get that one in and just really, if they can 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:07.040 get the kind of big money, you know, blanket the 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.880 Republican party base in the next couple of months saying 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.760 I am really the better alternative and try to sort 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.680 of erode that thirty four to thirty five percent base 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:18.720 that we think he has in the Republican primary voting 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:22.160 electorate and steal nine to fifteen percent of that voting 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:26.040 populist elsewhere, and I think that needs to be The 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.000 strategy is the slow and steady, but it needs to 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.840 happen now, and it needs to say, you know, I'm 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.880 the better alternative. You can still like this guy, but 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:36.800 vote for me if you really want to win in 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:37.520 twenty twenty four. 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.440 Hey, kayleie, we only have about a minute left. How 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.440 does this impact other potential cases that Trump is having 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:45.280 to deal with as well? 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.400 Well, that's a really good question, because of course this 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:49.560 isn't the first time that he has been arranged or 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.440 case criminal charges that already happened in New York. But 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.360 this also may not be the only indictment we see 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.440 stemming from investigations by Special Counsel Jacksmith. He is also 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.360 investigating Trump's role in January sixth. There is a district 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:04.920 attorney in County Georgia that is also looking at his 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.439 attempts to overturn the results of the twenty twenty election. 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:11.320 So this doesn't necessarily mean the end of Trump's legal woes, 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.000 and potentially related to January sixth, we could actually see 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.480 even more serious charges than the one he's facing here. 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:18.480 And I have to apologize if you hear this rooster. 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:18.760 Guys. 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:22.119 I know you've been talking about there are literally wild 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.040 chickens and roosters walking around the courthouse right now. 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:27.680 All right, we'll leave that to you. You're in charge 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:30.640 of that down there. Bloomberg TD anchor Kaylee Lines definitely 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.639 on location down in Miami with the chickens in the 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.800 Hends and Wendy Schiller Brown University, a professor joining us 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:39.439 to get some just some smart analysis of how this 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:42.160 is all going to play out down in Miami today 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.720 and what it might mean for President former President Trump 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.359 gung Ford, particularly as we prepare for the twenty twenty 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:51.440 four election. A lot of moving pieces there. 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.320 You're listening to the tape Cancher Live program Bloomberg Markets 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.080 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, Tune in up, 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:02.040 Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. You can 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.320 also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:10.800 York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:13.440 Bes min and Paul Swaite here in the Bloomberg Interactive 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.560 Broker Studio. Our Inflation Day, Today's CPI Day Today. Here's 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:20.479 a kind of the headline stuff on an annualized basis CPI. 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:24.000 The headline print four percent. That's kind of right in 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.080 line with a four point one percent expectation, but it's 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:28.000 down big from last month when it was four point 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:28.480 nine percent. 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.479 Eight was talking about those egg prices and the index 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.360 for eggs falling close to fourteen percent, the largest decrease 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:36.920 in that index since January nineteenth, big one of that 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:37.640 CPI report. 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:41.080 Yeah, I'm a big expedited guy. So that's that's chickens 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:44.000 outside the courthouse. Chickens outside of the court house with 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:45.560 Kaylee Lines, she's in charge. 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:46.359 All right. 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.040 Let's so they seem pretty good to me. But let's 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:49.440 go to somebody who does this stuff for a living. 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:52.159 Jeffrey Cleveland. He's a director and chief e commerce that 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.160 paid it in regal So, Jeff, you know, the print 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.040 seemed good to me. What's your takeaway from our inflation 0:18:58.040 --> 0:18:59.359 out local here in the United States? 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.159 Well, I'm self interested. So when I look at the 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.520 index for food away from home, it's up eight point 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:07.560