WEBVTT - Houthi Drone Strike???  Mike Lyons talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary Pompey is made clear that the Irani regime is

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for this attack on civilian areas and infrastructure vital

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<v Speaker 1>to our global energy supply, and we're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>stand for that. Over the weekend, it would appear that

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<v Speaker 1>Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's oil supply or their ability to

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<v Speaker 1>supply oil to the world. According to The Wall Street Journal,

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<v Speaker 1>US officials said yesterday, there are strong indications the blasts

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<v Speaker 1>or the result of cruise missile strikes launched from Iraq

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<v Speaker 1>or Iran. You heard drones all weekend. Their cruise missiles

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<v Speaker 1>intermediate range ballistic missiles with the potential to fly more

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<v Speaker 1>than a thousand miles. Mike Clients is a military analyst

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<v Speaker 1>for CBS News who has covered a conflict all over

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<v Speaker 1>the world and indeed served in the United States Army

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<v Speaker 1>and joins US now. Mike, welcome, How are you guys?

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<v Speaker 1>So great to be back with you. Listen. Uh, we

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<v Speaker 1>engage in hyperbole for fun, but during serious times we

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<v Speaker 1>like to have a grasp of of, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>seriousness of these things for real. How how big a

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<v Speaker 1>deal is this attack counts out of Arabia? Yeah, big,

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<v Speaker 1>because of the impact of it. It's drive driven the

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<v Speaker 1>price of oil now down to where it was back

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<v Speaker 1>I think the levels of desert shield desert storms started. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So it got the Iranian effect of impacting the market,

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<v Speaker 1>which is what their goal is, to drive up the

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<v Speaker 1>price of crude. So anything that they they're exporting, because

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<v Speaker 1>there's been the de facto embargo on Iranian oil through

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<v Speaker 1>most of the world, but what they can sell, they

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<v Speaker 1>just want to get more for it. So it fits

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<v Speaker 1>in with the Iranian strategy for what they did. Now

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<v Speaker 1>again this is complex military operation. I mean to think

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<v Speaker 1>that the Hoofies have done this is you know, being

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<v Speaker 1>on the pale, there's just no way to have any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of capability to fry literally anything six and fifty

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<v Speaker 1>seven hundred miles from where they are to hit. UM

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<v Speaker 1>precisely hit in aramical facility in Saud Arabia. So so

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<v Speaker 1>clearly the US has gotta come on board really quick

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<v Speaker 1>with UM this evidence that's coming from Iran to get

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<v Speaker 1>the whole world against them. What do you expected the

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<v Speaker 1>response from Saudi Arabia to be and will it include

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<v Speaker 1>US or MBZ with the U A E. If you

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<v Speaker 1>don't mind me thrown around all these letters in Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and whoever else. Yeah, I know what, we gotta stay

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<v Speaker 1>out of this. I know the President tweeted about being

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<v Speaker 1>locked in looaded that that probably wasn't helpful. Um, this

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<v Speaker 1>is somewhat if you know, any kind of let's say,

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<v Speaker 1>kinetic response. If they're going to go that direction, we've

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<v Speaker 1>we've got to step back from that. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>will escalate things very quickly. Salrabia, though, is embarrassed today.

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<v Speaker 1>You know two key numbers, right, six hundred or sixty

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<v Speaker 1>sixty eight billion dollars what they spend on defense and

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred and fifty grand is what the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>the drones were. That that took that facility out for

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<v Speaker 1>degraded at the way it did so. Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a kind of new warfare with the technology,

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<v Speaker 1>the battery technology, with the GPS technology that critical limits

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<v Speaker 1>has gotta be careful for. But the sali Arabia needs

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<v Speaker 1>to do the same that the US share intelligence show

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<v Speaker 1>where they think it came from. It's going to probably

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<v Speaker 1>show capability gaps in a lot of their systems, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's why they're going to be embarrassed, which

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<v Speaker 1>is probably why they're holding back on it as well. No, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>just to clarify their reports out today that their cruise missiles.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think it was that's not correct? Yeah, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're defining, you know, kind of what the drone

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<v Speaker 1>is versus a cruise missile. Right. So drones are normally however,

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<v Speaker 1>they stay, they're more collection. They you know, they're not

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily used as a as a targeting facility, or don't

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<v Speaker 1>they don't fire kind of depending what we're kind of

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<v Speaker 1>mixing the vernaculars above. Christmas is clearly you know, fire

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<v Speaker 1>have deep range, uh that we're trying to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>keep them in under a treaty all those kinds of things. Drones,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of stay on station. They they're serve

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<v Speaker 1>used for surveillance. There's no way they were drones. These

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<v Speaker 1>are clearly weapons. You can call them cruise missiles. The

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<v Speaker 1>fact that they went that far again and having the

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<v Speaker 1>GPS capability means that they were likely more missiles than

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<v Speaker 1>they were drones. We're talking with military analyst Miclines, who

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked to over the years and really appreciate his

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<v Speaker 1>opinion on things. If Saudi Arabia and Iran went to

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<v Speaker 1>an actual war war, not a proxy war, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>actually at war with each other, which from what I

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<v Speaker 1>understand from my reading MBS, the leader of Saudi Arabian NBZ,

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<v Speaker 1>the leader of you A want they want to take

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<v Speaker 1>out iran Um. What are the um capabilities of each

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<v Speaker 1>of these countries? I mean, who would come out on

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<v Speaker 1>top on that? Well, probably not Um. And I'd say

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<v Speaker 1>the first question is where does that war take place

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<v Speaker 1>on the sky and what happens? And because you've got

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<v Speaker 1>a country that sits in between them, and that's a rock.

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<v Speaker 1>So in all likelihood, if it's anything that happens on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground, it happens in a rock on the southern

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<v Speaker 1>part of Iraq, which has been pro iran Um. If

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranians are able to marshal Um Iraqi forces to

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<v Speaker 1>go along with them, then things would escalate quickly because

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<v Speaker 1>the Salatis would be looking for another partner themselves that

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<v Speaker 1>Jordanians perhaps Um, and you'd have full scale you know war,

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<v Speaker 1>the regional war I guess you'd call. It wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>world war just yet as well, you know, the US

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<v Speaker 1>to get involved with that would be crazy because now

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<v Speaker 1>if the IT gets involved, now you bring in Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>you bring in China, you bring all these other elements

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<v Speaker 1>of it. So I think that that the Iranians would

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<v Speaker 1>have the upper hand if they decided to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>based on the amount of resources they could get together

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<v Speaker 1>in that region. Plus the Saudist think that they would

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<v Speaker 1>win because they would just kind of find an air

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<v Speaker 1>war and they think the terms would win it. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if that's a good enough of a gamble

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<v Speaker 1>to lose your country over. I wonder what a non

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<v Speaker 1>kinetic response would look like. Um. I mean, the sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>are already pretty harsh. Might the world unite on a

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<v Speaker 1>military naval blockade of or any imports or anything like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course that would turn into shooting pretty quick. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and and and again any kind of conflict there would

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<v Speaker 1>upset the global markets and effects. You know, you have

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<v Speaker 1>a worldwide recession likely if um, if there was a

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<v Speaker 1>kind of shooting war there, because both Saudian and the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranians would like they have to pay pair back and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of their production. Hopefully the United States could

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<v Speaker 1>say somewhat stealed from it based on having a more

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<v Speaker 1>resilient economy now based on our energy what we've done

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<v Speaker 1>here in the past ten or fifteen years. So but

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<v Speaker 1>but again, um, you look at that part of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>there's going to be a conflict at some point. The

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<v Speaker 1>question is where it happens, how it happens. I still

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<v Speaker 1>believe that the Iranians would try first, cyber first, or

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<v Speaker 1>these kinds of things, attacking critical infrastructure, going after them first. Interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Clients, military analysts for CBS News. Mike, thanks a million,

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<v Speaker 1>good to talk to you, Thanks for having me. Thanks