1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,440
Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. All right, here

2
00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:14,080
Speaker 1: we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty

3
00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:20,320
Speaker 1: forty five, fifty and the Kicks black stunned.

4
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:29,080
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, please stumble and bumble the latter turn

5
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,080
Speaker 2: a tatter on the inside.

6
00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,920
Speaker 1: The lad table off the fil the night.

7
00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,880
Speaker 3: By my god, it's not the size of the dog

8
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,240
Speaker 3: in the fighting, it's the size of the fight.

9
00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 1: Get all. Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast

10
00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,960
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the Group five Deep

11
00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,040
Speaker 1: Dive I Mike Caliberty's joined by my Action Nework co

12
00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,920
Speaker 1: host Duck. We're gonna get into everything under the sun

13
00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,720
Speaker 1: here in the Group of five for week number nine.

14
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,920
Speaker 1: But before we get into that, that means our best bets,

15
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 1: our G five moneyline parlay, the best of the rest,

16
00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,280
Speaker 1: his FCS leans projections, big bets of the weekend, all

17
00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 1: of it. First, we're gonna start with the sounding off segments,

18
00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,200
Speaker 1: kind of cleanse the palt a little bit and can

19
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,320
Speaker 1: go positively, you can go negatively. I certainly have something

20
00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,680
Speaker 1: positive to say about the fighting Rainbow Warriors out there

21
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 1: in the Pacific. But Doc, let's hear from you first,

22
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,080
Speaker 1: what are you sounding off on? Coming off of week

23
00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:28,280
Speaker 1: You got.

24
00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:37,960
Speaker 4: To say, well, how about the UAB Blazers, this once

25
00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,240
Speaker 4: proud program that was resurrected and then the legacy somewhat

26
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 4: tarnished after the poor hire of Trent Dilfer and that

27
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:46,800
Speaker 4: decision by the administration.

28
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,200
Speaker 3: You may be validated that coaching really matters. And what

29
00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,400
Speaker 3: Alex Mortensen was able to do with this bunch in

30
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 3: this spot with a backup quarterback who didn't have any

31
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,400
Speaker 3: game experience, it was really really impressive. It makes me

32
00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,480
Speaker 3: wonder what would have been these last several years with

33
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,440
Speaker 3: UAB and if they make the call, if they right,

34
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,000
Speaker 3: the wrongs could be specially yet again once for Alabama Birmingham,

35
00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,639
Speaker 3: so very very impressive. Hats off the UAB. I was

36
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:11,880
Speaker 3: really impressed with what they did.

37
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,000
Speaker 1: I couldn't be happier for this fan base. They deserved it.

38
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,519
Speaker 1: They immediately get off the mat deliver a top twenty

39
00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,400
Speaker 1: five victory. Good things are around the corner. I wonder

40
00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,760
Speaker 1: if this makes you know the ad the job search.

41
00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,079
Speaker 1: I'm sure they hired a search firm to help out

42
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,440
Speaker 1: with us, like, could Mortenson be the right fit? Does

43
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 1: he stay as the offensive play caller, like, there's lots

44
00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,920
Speaker 1: of moving pieces here, but all of a sudden, just

45
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,480
Speaker 1: a quick injection of optimism in the Magic City. Couldn't

46
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,480
Speaker 1: be happier for them. I mean, I went off on

47
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,960
Speaker 1: until for last week, and a lot of the UAB

48
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,720
Speaker 1: Twitter was following along and pumping their fists right there

49
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 1: with me. So I'm glad that we could all cathartically

50
00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,400
Speaker 1: get beyond move past. It should be a dirty word

51
00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,079
Speaker 1: in Birmingham. Let's not even say the D word anymore.

52
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 1: We don't have to live through it anymore. And it's

53
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,359
Speaker 1: great to see them playing some winning football and really

54
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,639
Speaker 1: on top of everything else, it just adds more intrigue

55
00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 1: into the race in the American with Memphis dropping a

56
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,840
Speaker 1: game there. I hope that Lewis isn't out for the

57
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 1: season or per a long period of time, because he

58
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:16,320
Speaker 1: certainly was a surprising addition at quarterback this year. Surprising

59
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:17,840
Speaker 1: in that I thought that there was going to be

60
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,320
Speaker 1: a downgrade at quarterback. He really played some great football

61
00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,359
Speaker 1: for about two months. So I'm hoping that they don't

62
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,160
Speaker 1: lose him for the rest of the season and that

63
00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,639
Speaker 1: Memphis is live in terms of fighting for a bid

64
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,720
Speaker 1: to the American Championship. All right, In terms of my

65
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:32,800
Speaker 1: sounding off, as I mentioned at the top, I'm going

66
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: to talk Hawaii football. Timmy Chang started thirteen and twenty

67
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 1: five straight up with his alma mater, famously two and

68
00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 1: fifteen on the mainland. In his first three years as

69
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,440
Speaker 1: the head coach of the Bows, the lay was starting

70
00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,120
Speaker 1: to chaf a little bit. The Hawaiian honeymoon was over.

71
00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 1: It was win or walk here in twenty twenty five,

72
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,600
Speaker 1: and he's won. I believe in you, Timmy. We just

73
00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:55,640
Speaker 1: cashed that win total over five and a half in

74
00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,760
Speaker 1: just eight games, not one but two road winds already

75
00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,040
Speaker 1: on the season, and he's given us the Tokyo to

76
00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 1: The kid should be in the Heisman conversation. He's twenty

77
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,040
Speaker 1: for twenty on his field goals this year, eight for

78
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,920
Speaker 1: eight from forty plus plus the game winner against Stanford.

79
00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 1: Just everything that we could hope for and more. It

80
00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 1: used to be that break glass in case of gambling

81
00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 1: emergency after midnight, you're down three or four units, just

82
00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 1: put it on the Hawaii over well. For years, their

83
00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,080
Speaker 1: offense was stuck in the mud. They couldn't paddle the boat.

84
00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,120
Speaker 1: In the right direction, but now all of a sudden,

85
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,680
Speaker 1: they're scoring a lot of points. The midnight games are

86
00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,680
Speaker 1: fun if you're able to pay for the pay per view.

87
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:31,520
Speaker 1: So I just want to say thank you to Timmy

88
00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 1: for bringing back the run and shoot to its glory

89
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,720
Speaker 1: and College Shopball needed this and you delivered it. So

90
00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,240
Speaker 1: that's my sounding off there, keeping it very positive this

91
00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 1: week after going so hard after that former coach at

92
00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,080
Speaker 1: UAB last week. All right, before we get into the

93
00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,840
Speaker 1: best Bets, let's toss over for Stucky for a quick

94
00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,080
Speaker 1: word from DraftKings.

95
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 2: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is sponsored by DraftKings

96
00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:56,120
Speaker 2: sportsbook and in partnership with DraftKings. BBOC listeners get a

97
00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 2: great new offer right now. New customers can bet five

98
00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:04,440
Speaker 2: dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets

99
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,839
Speaker 2: if your bet wins. En three months of NBA League

100
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 2: Pass stay in on the action and use your bonus

101
00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 2: bets on DraftKings same game parlays for a shot at

102
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,760
Speaker 2: an even bigger payoff. To get started, use promo code

103
00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:25,200
Speaker 2: BBOC when signing up with DraftKings. That's code BBOC when

104
00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 2: signing up with DraftKings for three months of NBA League

105
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,640
Speaker 2: Pass and three hundred dollars back if your first bet wins,

106
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,240
Speaker 2: the crown is yours.

107
00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,719
Speaker 1: Thanks Ducky. Now let's get into our best bets for

108
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,520
Speaker 1: this week. A reminder if you'd like to tail some

109
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,160
Speaker 1: of the bets that we discuss in today's episode, find

110
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,400
Speaker 1: the quick slip link in the episode and podcast description,

111
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,080
Speaker 1: or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now, or even better,

112
00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,159
Speaker 1: sign up for Action Pro, where you'll get immediate notifications

113
00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,159
Speaker 1: anytime an Action Network expert blogs a bet, so that

114
00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,359
Speaker 1: means stucky Colin Wilson, Duck myself. Anytime we put a

115
00:05:58,360 --> 00:05:59,800
Speaker 1: bet in there, you're going to be the first to know.

116
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,920
Speaker 1: So it's the best bets at the best prices right now.

117
00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,880
Speaker 1: You can use promo code BBOC twenty when signing up

118
00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,680
Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off an annual subscription, So if you

119
00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 1: don't have Action Pro yet, use code BBOC twenty to

120
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,400
Speaker 1: get on board. All right, here we go, Best bets

121
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,920
Speaker 1: for a week number nine, Duck, I'd like to kick

122
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 1: it to you first with a team that, at least

123
00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 1: in my opinion, has exceeded all offensive expectations. Here in

124
00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,120
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I think maybe in the first couple

125
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,120
Speaker 1: weeks of the season we were waiting for the air

126
00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,279
Speaker 1: to come out of the balloon. As related to Yukon

127
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:34,240
Speaker 1: Husky football, but it seems as though Finano is for real.

128
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,240
Speaker 1: They have a three headed monster when you can bind

129
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,800
Speaker 1: him with Edwards out of the backfield and Skylar Bell

130
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,159
Speaker 1: on the perimeter, and you like them lay in ten

131
00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,600
Speaker 1: here in week nine, walk me through the rationale.

132
00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Yukon has just been playing absolutely excellent

133
00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 3: football this season. They're legitimately a couple of plays away

134
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,960
Speaker 3: from being undefeated in a close loss against Sarah cut

135
00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,719
Speaker 3: and Syracuse in a game they had firmly in hand,

136
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 3: and then a three point loss against the Delaware but Hens,

137
00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 3: And after the loss to Syracuse they had kind of

138
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,440
Speaker 3: a hangover spot there where they didn't play very well

139
00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,840
Speaker 3: against against Delaware. I think they avoid that hangover spot

140
00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,120
Speaker 3: here after the big win against Boston College and they're

141
00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,320
Speaker 3: going to significantly outclass the Rice Owls this week. Rice

142
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,560
Speaker 3: has not been good offensively for most of the season,

143
00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,320
Speaker 3: the Owls averaging just sixteen points per game against FBS competition,

144
00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 3: just three point eight yards per carry on the ground

145
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:32,239
Speaker 3: this year and just three rushing touchdowns the last three weeks.

146
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,080
Speaker 3: Rice can't throw the ball, and that's the concern I

147
00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 3: have from this group. Playing from behind one thirty fifth

148
00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,160
Speaker 3: and pass play success rate one twelfth in EPA per

149
00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:44,640
Speaker 3: pass offensively are the Rice owls. This offense is really

150
00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 3: built like a service academy. We've talked about it throughout

151
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,480
Speaker 3: the entire season, but if you look at what we've

152
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 3: seen from all the other service academies, it has been

153
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 3: the development of a passing attack. Rice does not have

154
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,080
Speaker 3: that yet and the result has been real struggle on

155
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,440
Speaker 3: third and medium or worse. They've been in at a

156
00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,080
Speaker 3: ton this year. Yukon creates their fair share of defensive havoc.

157
00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,560
Speaker 3: This group has fifty tackles for loss in twenty six

158
00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 3: sacks this season. Rice has allowed sixty negative plays against

159
00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,760
Speaker 3: them this year, and they're just not successful enough to

160
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:19,200
Speaker 3: consistently stack positive plays together to move the ball down

161
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,600
Speaker 3: the field to score. To keep up Joey Fanano back

162
00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,960
Speaker 3: to back games of seventy percent completion percentage, three hundred

163
00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,680
Speaker 3: and sixty passing yards in each game, four touchdowns without

164
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:32,920
Speaker 3: an interception in each game, and Rice has been shredded

165
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,360
Speaker 3: through the air the last three weeks, giving up over

166
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,160
Speaker 3: ten yards per attempt over the last three games. Rice

167
00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,320
Speaker 3: cannot stop Yukon and they're not going to be able

168
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 3: to keep up. Go find the flat tenants out there.

169
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:45,160
Speaker 3: Yukon minus ten.

170
00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think when you talk about service academy football,

171
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,920
Speaker 1: I think the college football world, particularly the betting universe,

172
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,200
Speaker 1: has been spoiled in the last two years. Whether it's

173
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,600
Speaker 1: the traditional service academies or a Vanderbilt with Diego Pave

174
00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,040
Speaker 1: running things. All of a sudden, your mind starts to

175
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 1: click into you're controlling the football, you're efficient, you can

176
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,760
Speaker 1: play keep away, You're really good as a dog. Georgia

177
00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: Tech fits that mold as well in the past two

178
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,960
Speaker 1: seasons under Brent Key. But just because you're running a

179
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 1: system that can play keep away doesn't automatically mean that

180
00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,120
Speaker 1: you are efficient, nor do you have quality quarterback play.

181
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,959
Speaker 1: And with all the positivity we have for Scott abel

182
00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 1: in year one in the preseason and we talked about

183
00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,800
Speaker 1: this rebuilding, it was kind of a perfect marriage between

184
00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,120
Speaker 1: a coach that made lemonade out of Lemons at Davidson

185
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 1: without scholarships and all these other things, we still have

186
00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,439
Speaker 1: concerns which who's going to be the quarterback where the

187
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,320
Speaker 1: explosive play is going to come from, just assuming at

188
00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,200
Speaker 1: some point it would materialize, and it hasn't. Have you

189
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,440
Speaker 1: seen anything else in the film that you've broken down.

190
00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,400
Speaker 1: I know that both of us have watched way more

191
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,040
Speaker 1: rice football than should be legal at this point in

192
00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,560
Speaker 1: the season, considering how poor they've been. But do you

193
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,640
Speaker 1: have any insight into what it would take for them

194
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,640
Speaker 1: to get it together down the stretch or maybe into

195
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:53,440
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six.

196
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,080
Speaker 3: Well, I mean the rest of this year, it's going

197
00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,520
Speaker 3: to take absolutely exquisite execution. It's going to take perfect

198
00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,880
Speaker 3: execute really on each play, because they just don't have

199
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,000
Speaker 3: the prowess passing the football, and they're not converting third

200
00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,400
Speaker 3: down at a high enough rate to consistently stay on

201
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 3: the field, and they've gone forward a little bit on

202
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,440
Speaker 3: fourth down kind of come up snake eyes. So it

203
00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,840
Speaker 3: hasn't been really the operation that we would have hoped.

204
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 3: As the competition has stiffened, and their last time out

205
00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,640
Speaker 3: against UTSA it was just a disaster. They got blitzed

206
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,959
Speaker 3: from the jump in that one, and just hard when

207
00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:29,840
Speaker 3: you don't have all the ammunition and you don't have

208
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 3: all the pieces, and you play this style of football

209
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,480
Speaker 3: that really requires you to be in front or tied.

210
00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,280
Speaker 3: Otherwise this offense really really struggles. So I think you're

211
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,360
Speaker 3: going to have to have excellent special teams, which they

212
00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,720
Speaker 3: do not have. I think the defense is really going

213
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:46,480
Speaker 3: to have to come up big, which I don't. Still

214
00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,640
Speaker 3: think they have the athletes in the secondary to be

215
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,920
Speaker 3: able to pin down this Yukon group. And if you

216
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,720
Speaker 3: look at what's coming next Memphis, a resurgent UAB, North Texas,

217
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,920
Speaker 3: and South Florida, it's going to be tough sled in

218
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,800
Speaker 3: the rest of the way for the Owls.

219
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:01,559
Speaker 1: My best bet here, I'm going to go with the

220
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 1: team that I think the market is over corrected on

221
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,360
Speaker 1: as a favorite, and that is Buffalo. They're laying nine

222
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,920
Speaker 1: and a half at home against Akron. I'm gonna lay

223
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 1: the points here with the Bulls and hold on. If

224
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,080
Speaker 1: you're already pulling away for me, I can feel that

225
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 1: in the gambling universe. Let's just talk through what we know.

226
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,800
Speaker 1: They're zero to three against the spread as favorites in

227
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,760
Speaker 1: MAC play. They haven't come close to covering as heavy

228
00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,440
Speaker 1: favorites yet. They won by three against Kent as twenty

229
00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,319
Speaker 1: four point home favorites, they won by one against Eastern

230
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,600
Speaker 1: as ten point favorites, and then last week they needed

231
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 1: to come from behind victory over UMAs to win by

232
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,080
Speaker 1: seven in a game in which they were laying sixteen.

233
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,679
Speaker 1: The common factor though in those three matchups, at least

234
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,160
Speaker 1: from and against the spread perspective, is that Buffalo lost

235
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,200
Speaker 1: the turnover battle in all three matchups. But the UMass

236
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,920
Speaker 1: performance I think was the one that has really put

237
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,920
Speaker 1: a lot of noise into their stats and at least

238
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,320
Speaker 1: their performance against the spread, because not only did they

239
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,800
Speaker 1: lose the turnover battle there, they also got stopped on

240
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,640
Speaker 1: a fourth down at the UMAs thirty five. They gave

241
00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,960
Speaker 1: him a fluky ninety yard rushing touchdown and an insane

242
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:04,800
Speaker 1: seventy seven yard passing touchdown that included a scramble, a

243
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,440
Speaker 1: side arm throw, and not one, not two, but three

244
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,000
Speaker 1: mess tackles from a slow tight end to get to

245
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,120
Speaker 1: the end zone. It was a crazy play for a

246
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 1: team that is top twenty in tackling per PFF. They

247
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,640
Speaker 1: outgained UMass in that game by one hundred and sixty

248
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 1: nine yards. So to me, what that's say it says

249
00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,240
Speaker 1: is if they played the game again immediately they lined

250
00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:25,960
Speaker 1: up the next day, they're going to come a lot

251
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:27,920
Speaker 1: closer to covering that than a game in which they

252
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,920
Speaker 1: had to steal it in the fourth quarter. Now Acron,

253
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,000
Speaker 1: on the other side of things, they've lost three MAC

254
00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,839
Speaker 1: games by forty two, thirteen and fourteen. They can't stop

255
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,360
Speaker 1: the run at all. They're letting opposing lines get to

256
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,160
Speaker 1: the second level start to chip up to those linebackers,

257
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 1: and because of that, they're one hundred and ninth in

258
00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:45,760
Speaker 1: line yards. I think there's going to be a lot

259
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,360
Speaker 1: of success on the table for this Buffalo run game.

260
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,600
Speaker 1: And in terms of the big plays that Acron's allowing

261
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,440
Speaker 1: as well, one hundredth in quality drives and also outside

262
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 1: the top one hundred in big plays allowed. So you

263
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 1: can move the ball methodically if you want to, you

264
00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,040
Speaker 1: can hit the big plays all And I think that's

265
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,079
Speaker 1: music to the years of this Buffalo coaching staff who's

266
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,959
Speaker 1: really looking for Taikwan Roberson to take over, because ever

267
00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,840
Speaker 1: since he came back from that injury, he was in

268
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,240
Speaker 1: a walking boot. He spent more time in the pocket.

269
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,680
Speaker 1: And what's interesting is because he's not bailing from the

270
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,720
Speaker 1: pocket quite as quickly as he was earlier in the season.

271
00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,760
Speaker 1: He's starting to go off a little bit. Six hundred

272
00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,000
Speaker 1: and seventy five yards through the air and five passing

273
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 1: touchdowns in his last two games alone. So I think

274
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 1: what they're going to have consistently on the grounds, and

275
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,400
Speaker 1: then adding in what he's been able to develop in

276
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,320
Speaker 1: terms of a rhythm through the air, I think this

277
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo offense is due for a big day. Buffalo hammered

278
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 1: Akron on the road last year. I think this is

279
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,760
Speaker 1: another element that is leading this to be a single

280
00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,520
Speaker 1: digit game below that key number of ten. They opened

281
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,839
Speaker 1: up a thirty eight to seven lead against Akron last

282
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,320
Speaker 1: year but then basically coasted and they won forty one

283
00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,959
Speaker 1: to thirty. So I think in terms of the historics

284
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,200
Speaker 1: and the comps that they're pulling, they're saying they're not

285
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,959
Speaker 1: covering big numbers this year. And look at Akron last year.

286
00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 1: They were a game, you know, underdog against them for

287
00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,760
Speaker 1: four quarters. Not really, so in my opinion, I think

288
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:02,600
Speaker 1: this is going to be a situation where the numbers

289
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,520
Speaker 1: suppressed by some weird fluky play, some turnover regression that

290
00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,240
Speaker 1: I think is due to go the bulls way. I

291
00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,080
Speaker 1: know that we got burned with them last week, but

292
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 1: I am confident in Pete Lembo in this situation to

293
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,680
Speaker 1: lay the hammer and to win this one going away

294
00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,719
Speaker 1: all the things I listed out any hesitation. I know

295
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 1: that sometimes you get that bet regret or a team

296
00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 1: ends up in podcast prison for you. What are your

297
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:24,160
Speaker 1: thoughts on this one, Douc.

298
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 3: I still believe what we have adhered to in the

299
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,280
Speaker 3: preseason in our research, and that is that Buffalo has

300
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 3: an elite MAC defense, and despite the offensive struggles and

301
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 3: the fact that they haven't been covering spreads, Buffalo still

302
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 3: grades out as the second best defensive unit in the

303
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,920
Speaker 3: MAC per PFF their third, and the run defense their third,

304
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:45,400
Speaker 3: and overall tackling second, in pass rush, second in overall coverage.

305
00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 3: This is an elite MAC defense and they're going to

306
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,800
Speaker 3: peek at the right time. Buffalo is my preseason pick

307
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,440
Speaker 3: to win the Mac. Everything's right in front of them

308
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:55,880
Speaker 3: with Pete Lembo in this group. It has not looked

309
00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:00,400
Speaker 3: very good this season offensively, especially against inferior competit, but

310
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,480
Speaker 3: I definitely think that there's a chance that this team

311
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 3: can start to peek at the right time, and you

312
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,320
Speaker 3: look at Akron. They have started to find something a

313
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 3: little bit offensively. But they did that against Ball State

314
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 3: and Central Michigan, two defenses that don't rate nearly as

315
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,560
Speaker 3: highly as Buffalo's. I think Buffalo writes the ship at home.

316
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 3: This is a play.

317
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: I like, we got two more best bets. Both are

318
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 1: overs coming out of the fun Belt. Let's start with yours,

319
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,600
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern against Arkansas State. I mean, the defenses are

320
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 1: clearly not there. Arkansas State is kind of one of

321
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,160
Speaker 1: those teams that can seesaw a bit in terms of

322
00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,400
Speaker 1: offensive efficiency. They can play in shootouts, and also they

323
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 1: can have a random stinker come out from time to time.

324
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,200
Speaker 1: So this number in the low sixties at sixty two

325
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,760
Speaker 1: and a half as of recording. What are your thoughts

326
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,360
Speaker 1: on this one between the Red Wolves and the Eagles.

327
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, what you have here is two of

328
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 3: the worst rated defenses in the conference, and the numbers

329
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 3: are staggering. Georgia Southern is the worst rated run defense

330
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 3: in the Belt. Arkansas's State is the eleventh worst. Georgia

331
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 3: Southern has the worst rated pass rush in the conference.

332
00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:02,160
Speaker 3: Arkansas State is twelfth worst. Arkansas has the twelfth worst

333
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 3: coverage unit grades per PFF, Georgia Southern is ninth, and

334
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 3: then Georgia Southern defensively one thirty sixth, then defensive success

335
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 3: rate one thirty fourth, in defensive havoc one hundred and

336
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 3: twenty ninth, and finishing drives and Arkansas State is just

337
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 3: as bad as all three of those metrics. So these

338
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 3: teams are giving up nearly seven yards per play and

339
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,200
Speaker 3: over eight yards per pass attempt against them. I fully

340
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 3: expect Arkansas State to get the ground game going with

341
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:31,560
Speaker 3: Jalen Rayner and Devin Spencer. I would expect a big

342
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 3: passing day from JC French. He's disappointed this season for

343
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 3: Georgia Southern. It's been a lot of short stuff. It's

344
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 3: been a lot of dink and dunk. But I think

345
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,960
Speaker 3: the Eagles can shred Arkansas State through the air. We

346
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 3: should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. I

347
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 3: just don't trust either one of these poorest defenses to

348
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 3: be able to necessitate stops, to get any stops on

349
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 3: third down. They're both giving up third down at a

350
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 3: very very high rate. Both red zone defenses are very

351
00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,400
Speaker 3: very bad. Should be plenty of points in one, so

352
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 3: I'm going over sixty two and a half.

353
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, jac French can also be an over better's best

354
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 1: friend because he's thrown I want to say, let me

355
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,440
Speaker 1: look it up here. I want to say, it's seventeen

356
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,600
Speaker 1: seventeen interceptions in the last year and a half, so

357
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 1: he's more than happy to serve up a pick six.

358
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: You know, in the event that there's a low in

359
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,359
Speaker 1: the scoring in the second half, third quarter or something

360
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 1: like that, all of a sudden things can pick up

361
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 1: in a single play. So yes, the run defenses are

362
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 1: so weak you get explosives on it in the handoff,

363
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,199
Speaker 1: and at least from a turnover perspective, I kind of

364
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 1: like the boomer bust nature that French as a gun

365
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,439
Speaker 1: slinger gives you. In terms of an over all, Right,

366
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 1: I teased it. We got two overseer out of the belts.

367
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: I like app state old dominion over sixty two for starters.

368
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 1: These are the two fastest teams in the Sun Belt

369
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,400
Speaker 1: in terms of tempo, and two of the fastest teams

370
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 1: you know, by definition, in all of G five football

371
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 1: in terms of seconds between plays. They're both top twenty five.

372
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 1: JJ Cole, the six foot seven, two hundred and forty

373
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,920
Speaker 1: pounds monster quarterback for app State, has really opened things

374
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 1: up now that he sees the starting job. Seventy eight

375
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 1: points in the past two games as they're QB one,

376
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,359
Speaker 1: and I mean with him surging. I also look across

377
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: this Old Dominion defense, which has been imploding. They've allowed,

378
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 1: ready for this one hundred and eleven points in the

379
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 1: last two games, and the reasons are simple. They can't tackle,

380
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 1: they can't rush the pass room. So if you have

381
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 1: a quality quarterback, you can score fifty points against this

382
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 1: monarch defense when you look at their issues with tackling

383
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 1: as well. Seventeen miss tackles against Marshall, sixteen against James Madison,

384
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 1: a James Madison offense that certainly did not impress us

385
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 1: for most of the season. All of a sudden, they

386
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 1: came alive. Every single thing worked, the run game, of

387
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 1: the pass game, you know, whether it was making places

388
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,199
Speaker 1: happen from the pocket or extending and being creative outside

389
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 1: the pocket. Everything worked for the Dukes in that game.

390
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 1: And then when Old Dominion has the ball, as I

391
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: like to say, it's two to tango on a total

392
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 1: and with an over like this, you need at least

393
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 1: one of these teams to hit up into the high

394
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 1: thirties low forties. Odieu is capable of that. With Colton

395
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: Joseph as the quarterback. He's twenty second in QBR in

396
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 1: the entire country. He's got five games with fifty rushing

397
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 1: yards or more already on the season, and when he

398
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: has time to read a defense when he's not under dress,

399
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,199
Speaker 1: he knows where to go with the football, which is

400
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,160
Speaker 1: a credit to this coaching staff and his maturation from

401
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 1: last year where basically he was a one read kind

402
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 1: of quarterback and then he'd grown the ball. That's not

403
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 1: the case this year. You look at his numbers. When

404
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: he has a clean pocket, he's able to push the

405
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 1: ball downfield and get explosives. His a DOT from a

406
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 1: clean pocket is thirteen point six, which is translated to

407
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 1: fifteen passing touchdowns completed two thirds of his passes from

408
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 1: the clean pocket, with fourteen big time throws. Only one

409
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,640
Speaker 1: quarterback in the entire country, Walker Egot from San Jose State,

410
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: has more big time throws than Joseph. So just give

411
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: you a feel for what you're going to get when

412
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: you get into an old dominion over. You know this

413
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 1: guy is going to try to make those highlight reel

414
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,679
Speaker 1: throws that can turn what would have been a checkdown

415
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 1: for seven or eight yards into a forty yard touchdown. Now,

416
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: app State is miles away from the stingy defense that

417
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 1: used to keep them at the top of the belt.

418
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 1: They're one hundred and eleventh in coverage, they're a matching

419
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleventh and tackling per PFF, and they've

420
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 1: already given up twenty three pass plays of twenty yards

421
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 1: or more this season, which is ninety third nationally. I

422
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 1: trust these quarterbacks to put up monster numbers. I think

423
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: this potentially could be a huge shootout that gets played

424
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: close to the eighties where we got perfect fall weather

425
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 1: on tap in this game as well on Saturday in Norfolk.

426
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 1: So there's no reason for me to go under in

427
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: this one. I'm going to ride the wave of old

428
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 1: dominion overs until the wheels fall off. What are your

429
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: thoughts on this one? For two offenses that at least

430
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 1: you know, halfway through last season, we weren't exactly sure

431
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 1: who they were in terms of the identity. You move

432
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: the calendar forward one year, Joseph has jumped off the page,

433
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 1: and a new quarterback in for app State seems to

434
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,640
Speaker 1: be making all the difference.

435
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's really interesting to see how Old Dominion's

436
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 3: defense has completely disintegrated over the last couple of weeks,

437
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 3: and really two disappointing spots for them. The first one,

438
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: you almost saw that they rolled in there and showed

439
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 3: up and thought they would just win just by getting

440
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 3: off the bus. Didn't play out that way against Marshall.

441
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 3: And then last week they were trading score for score

442
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 3: against JMU and man the moment and them just shifted

443
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,919
Speaker 3: and they couldn't ever sustain. And he drives outside of

444
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 3: the explosive touchdowns. But I really like Colton Joseph. I

445
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 3: like what he's done this season. I like how he's

446
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 3: maturing as a passer. I think that they'll have a

447
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 3: ton of success at home offensively against an ap State

448
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 3: defense that I don't trust to get any stops. I

449
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 3: don't trust them to get off the field consistently. They've

450
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 3: been shredded through the air this season. They were just

451
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 3: shredded by Coastal Carolina. My goodness, that tells you a

452
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 3: lot about what you need to know. The propensity for

453
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 3: app state to play in these higher scoring games with

454
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,679
Speaker 3: the style of offense that they run leads me to

455
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 3: believe we'll have a ton of possessions. We should have

456
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 3: plenty of red zone opportunities here. So this is another

457
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 3: one I do like I.

458
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 1: Got now we turned to your four minute offense. This

459
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: one was easy picking out. This week, we're gonna go

460
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: to the American South Florida against Memphis. Let's start right

461
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: off the bat talking about the quarterbacks situation with the Tigers,

462
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 1: because that certainly takes the luster off this matchup. But

463
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: with this coaching staff, you know, being able to do

464
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: so much in terms of their offensive identity, being able

465
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: to hybrid and adjust from a rush oriented offense to

466
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 1: more of a passing attack. What do you think they

467
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 1: do in terms of quarterback play and their run pass mix,

468
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: And do you think they're drawing dead right away against

469
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: the South Florida front that has proven to be such

470
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: like absolutely the class of the American if not really

471
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 1: like a top twenty five defensive line. They focused on

472
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 1: that in the portal and nil, and those big bodies

473
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 1: have certainly give them an advantage, not just in their

474
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 1: upset of the Florida Gators and Boise State, but really

475
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 1: anybody coming at them in the.

476
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: American Yeah, it's been really impressive. This was setting up

477
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 3: to be quite the showdown in the AAC before Memphis

478
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 3: completely laid an egg in the Battle for the Bones

479
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 3: last week, losing outright as twenty three point favorites. But man,

480
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: this was going to be quite the showdown. The real

481
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 3: question is the health of Brandon Lewis. Is he going

482
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 3: to play? The reports are from Ryan Silverfield day to day,

483
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: but he also said that all three quarterbacks could play

484
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: in this one, so he really didn't give a tremendous

485
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 3: amount of insight and I would want to know that

486
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: here before I make a play on this one. You

487
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 3: look at Memphis's defense good against the run this season,

488
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 3: allowing just three and a half yards per carry on

489
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 3: the ground. Really, it was only UAB that has been

490
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 3: able to gash this defense on the ground. They're ninth

491
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: and EPA per rush allowed this season twenty ninth and

492
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 3: in rush play success rate. South Florida's offense is run

493
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 3: oriented despite what you might think. They are at their

494
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: best when they get the ground game going and they

495
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 3: gash you through the middle and then they throw the

496
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 3: pass over the top outside of that and they run

497
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 3: this slow kind of not really a wake forest slow meash,

498
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,239
Speaker 3: but it's kind of a slow developing play action with

499
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 3: Byron Brown, and that's when the receivers create space, they

500
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 3: get the seam routes going, they throw it over the

501
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 3: top of the linebackers who creep up well be interested

502
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 3: to see if they could get that ground game going

503
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 3: against Memphis, So then that pass explosivity is something that

504
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 3: realize Memphis. The pass rush is struggling, only two sacks

505
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: this last four weeks for the Memphis defense, they can't

506
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: get pressure, but they still are creating negative plays on

507
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,239
Speaker 3: the ground in recent weeks. Really, the key for this

508
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,719
Speaker 3: defense is going to be eliminating or limiting the explosive

509
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 3: plays from South Florida's offense. We've seen South Florida stall

510
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 3: out at times this season where they go several possessions

511
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 3: where they can't get a first down. It's punt punt, punt, punt,

512
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 3: and they struggle at times to move the ball if

513
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: they're not hitting the explosives. South Florida has feasted on

514
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 3: some of the worst defenses in the conference, and to

515
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 3: their credit, they shredded them. So the lights were a

516
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 3: little too bright for North Texas when they played against

517
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 3: the Mean Green a couple of weeks back, and that

518
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 3: game kind of snowballed on them. So it's just kind

519
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 3: of the way that one went. Defensively, Todd Orlando, I think,

520
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 3: has done an exceptional job with South Florida, a defense

521
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 3: that was such a liability at times in prior seasons

522
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 3: three point three yards per carry on the ground. This year,

523
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 3: only Miami has really been able to break through against

524
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 3: the Bulls front seven, as all other opponents have rushed

525
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 3: for less than one hundred and thirty three yards on

526
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 3: the Bulls this year. The secondary have been ballhawks ten

527
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,959
Speaker 3: interceptions for South Florida, and I just don't think Memphis

528
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: will really have answers to move it through the air,

529
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 3: especially if they're on a backup quarterback. Memphis did win

530
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 3: this game last year twenty one to three, and they're

531
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 3: at least familiar with the offensive scheme having seen it before,

532
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 3: and so my initial inclination here would be to lean

533
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: under in this one. With a total of sixty three

534
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 3: and a half sixty four, I would see this one

535
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 3: play to the under. I think Memphis is going to

536
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 3: try to establish the run. I don't know how much

537
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 3: confidence they'll have with the backup quarterback throwing it around here.

538
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 3: And it's so hard to really definitively say what's going

539
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: to happen without knowing who's going to be under center

540
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 3: for Memphis, So I want to know that. I think

541
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 3: South Florida if they can get the ground game humming,

542
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 3: and it could be a long day for Memphis if

543
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 3: they get some of that pass play explosivity with the receivers.

544
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 3: Receivers have had a ton of drops too, so I

545
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 3: have to imagine that over corrects itself and they hang

546
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 3: on to the ball this time around, but no play here.

547
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: I lean under. What do you think about this one, Breezy?

548
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I need to wait to see the exact quarterback situation.

549
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: My feeling seeing the injury, seeing him not return to

550
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: the game. I think it's more wishful thinking, optimistic, you know,

551
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 1: coach speak, and also making it difficult for the South

552
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: Florida coaching step to have to prepare for multiple quarterbacks.

553
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 1: I think it's totally within bounds. I don't think there's

554
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: anything cheap about it. It's a bit of games than ship.

555
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: He's also you know, behind the eight ball not having

556
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: a starting quarterback. If that's the case, this game is

557
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: a pass for me. I think it's South Florida could

558
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 1: end up, you know, winning going away, but I really

559
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: don't have a feel if I don't know what I'm

560
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 1: getting from the Memphis offense. So I agree with you.

561
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: It is a marquee game that's lost its luster because

562
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: of the upset and the battle for the bones, and

563
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: in this quarterback uncertainty, I'm still gonna watch it. I

564
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,199
Speaker 1: think there's an opportunity for South Florida to kind of

565
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: prove under goalish that they're not just big game hunt

566
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 1: they're also ruthless. They have a team that's down, but

567
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: clearly they can change their whole season with an upset

568
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: win here. Do they go for the juggular? Do they

569
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: try to win this game in the first twenty minutes

570
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: and just hit them with haymakers and then kind of

571
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: coast from there. That would a signal to me that

572
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: they're really ready to march all the way to the

573
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 1: American Championship Game. If they play with their food a

574
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: little bit, which you know, it's happened to a lot

575
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: of good G five teams over the years. I think

576
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: this could be, you know, kind of a dicey game

577
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: for them in the second half. I wouldn't be surprised

578
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: to see either game strip playout. So I'm going to

579
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: keep my money on the sideline. All right. Out of

580
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: the four minute offense, we transition now into our G

581
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: five underdog moneyline parlay, presented by DraftKings.

582
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

583
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

584
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: I'm shooting for the moon here, so let's start with

585
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: yours first duck, the Golden Hurricane. They are two to one,

586
00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: hosting Temple in Tulsa. It's thousand. I made some notes

587
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: early in the preseason where I said I thought that

588
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: Trey Lamb was not quite the right hire. I thought

589
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 1: that he was a little bit young. I thought it

590
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: would have made more sense for him to work his

591
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: way up the FCS ladder, maybe be a coordinator at

592
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: the FBS level. All that being said, yes, they are

593
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: zero to four in the American They've lost to four

594
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: really good American teams. They're all ball teams. They're all

595
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: you know for with the exception of I want to

596
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: say East Carolina they're all going to be in the

597
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: mix to play for the American Championship. So the fact

598
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: that they lost those four it's no scarlet letter on

599
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: this Tulsa team or their staff. They did beat Oklahoma State.

600
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 1: That was a nice emotional win. But when I peek

601
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: over you know, the horizon and look at the rest

602
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: of the schedule, they could win a lot of games

603
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: down the stretch here in the American and I think

604
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: you're going to get really good prices on them, at

605
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: least in the next two weeks to do so. So

606
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: let's start here a long road trip for Temple. There

607
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: just about a touchdown favorite in this game. Talking through

608
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: why you like Tulsa and what you're hoping to see

609
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: for them to finally put together four quarters of really

610
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: good football. I would say the past month.

611
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: Well to start, I have this game power rated closer

612
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 3: to a pick, and with where this line is at,

613
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: they're suggesting that Temple is nine points better on a

614
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 3: neutral I'm just not so sure about that. I do

615
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 3: acknowledge that Temple has been significantly better than anticipated this season,

616
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 3: and in recent weeks they beat Utsa and played Navy

617
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: really really tough. But as you mentioned, Tulsa's been through

618
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 3: the conference gauntlet this season, Navy two lane, Memphis, and

619
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 3: East Carolina. Tulsa's got a strong coverage unit that grades

620
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: out as the second best in the American Conference for PFF,

621
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: along with the third best pass rush, and I think

622
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,719
Speaker 3: that they can put a little pressure on Evan Simon

623
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: and this Temple's passing attack. Tulsa's got sixteen sacks thirty

624
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 3: eight tackles for loss this season, and for as bad

625
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 3: as some of the metrics are, again, they've played some

626
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 3: of the better offenses in this league, but the defense

627
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,719
Speaker 3: has been good on early downs. They're eighth and EPA

628
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 3: per rush, fifteenth in rush play success rate. I think

629
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 3: that they can provide a little bit of resistance here

630
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: at home. Offensively, I think Tulsa can move the ball here.

631
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 3: Temple gives up five yards per carry on the ground

632
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 3: and has been shredded in four of the last five games.

633
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: Baylor Hayes is starting to figure some things out in

634
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 3: the past game. Really the critical step for me the

635
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 3: key that unlocks. This is a lesser known name, but

636
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 3: Zion Steptoe is a complete difference maker in the slot,

637
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: and if they can get him going and get him

638
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 3: the ball in space. He's very, very elusive. I think

639
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 3: that it's going to look a little better of an

640
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: operation for Tulsa this week at home, and I think

641
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: they have a chance to win this game on the field.

642
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: So Tulsa on the money line is where I'm going.

643
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: Now, this money line parlay putting these two underdogs together,

644
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: it's going to pay out seventeen to one. It's correct

645
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: seventeen to one. You're probably wondering, how do we make

646
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: that math work FAU five to one to upset the

647
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: Navy midshipman in Annapolis. I'm gonna make the case here

648
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: if this is my biggest swing of the entire season.

649
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: Navy is going to move the football. There's no stop

650
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: in this rushing attack. They're going to hit seven or

651
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: eight yards per carry on the ground in this game.

652
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: I'm expecting that. But at some point something has to

653
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: give with Navy in close games and when it comes

654
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: to turnovers. Let's go through their close game resume thus far.

655
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: An eight point win over Rice, we don't think Rice

656
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: is very good. A three point win over air Force

657
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: air Force has no defense, and a one point win

658
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: over Temple. Those teams are collectively eight and eleven straight up,

659
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: and all of them really struggle to contain the run.

660
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: Air Force was one hundred and tenth, Temple one hundred

661
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: and eighth against the run, So FAU checking in at

662
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleventh isn't a deal breaker for me.

663
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 1: We know that Navy is going to gobble up yardage,

664
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: but it comes down to turnover. Look, Navy has lost

665
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: all of five turnovers this season in six games. But

666
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: here's the thing. They fumbled it nine times. They've only

667
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: lost two of those fumbles. That's insanely lucky to be

668
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: landing on seventy eight percent of your fumbles when they

669
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: hit the turf. FAU, by the way dead last and

670
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: turnover margin in the entire country, the turnover regression. Gods,

671
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: if you're listening, give me a bounce, Give me one

672
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: bounce in this game, because if FAU does get lucky

673
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: and they're at even or plus in the turnover margin, here,

674
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: they have the passing attack to carve up this Navy secondary.

675
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: They throw, they throw, they throw, and they throw some more.

676
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: Their fourth and passing yards per game. No one attempts

677
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: more passes per game in the entire country than fau

678
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: and the Midies pass defense one hundred and seventeenth in coverage,

679
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteenth and pass d success rate, and one

680
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six in passes defended. So they're not

681
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: active with their hands, they're not closing down on balls.

682
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: They are just leaving people wide open. So if you

683
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: want to look for some comps, Evan Simon twenty five

684
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: for thirty six, three forty five and a touchdown, only

685
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: sacked once by this Navy pass you pass rush. They're

686
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: what they send in terms of three and four man rushes.

687
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 1: They are just not getting home. Jalen Kidna twenty two

688
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: for thirty two three hundred and four yards, two touchdowns.

689
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: They did pick him twice and that swung the game

690
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: in the second half, but they only sacked him once.

691
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: I think belt Camp can stand in the pocket and

692
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: carve these guys up. And one last thing from a

693
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: situational angle. Who was on deck for Navy North Texas,

694
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: Notre Dame South Florida Memphis. If they go three and

695
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: one in that stretch and win the American Title Game,

696
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 1: they're probably in the playoff. How is it not on

697
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: their mind as an undefeated team on what's ahead to

698
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: look over this FAU team. This is the look ahead spot.

699
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: I know that service academies are usually buttoned up and

700
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 1: they wake up at four forty five in the morning,

701
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: and they're disciplined. They go station to station. But if

702
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: you want to grab a big upset on this season,

703
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: I think I've seen crazier things than this because the

704
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: weaknesses that the Navy defense presents, and then on the

705
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: other side of it, all these close games that they've

706
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: been in, I think indicates that they are not as

707
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: good as a six to zero undefeated record. When indicate

708
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: five to one, I'm willing to take a big swing here.

709
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 1: I know it's been an underwhelming season for Kitley and

710
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: this FAU team, but they've shown signs of life from

711
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 1: time to time. I think they finally put it all

712
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: together and catch a few breaks. What do you think

713
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: about this at this price point? Granted this is not

714
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 1: a coin flip by any stretch, but I think this

715
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: pricing is way off at five one. I would play

716
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: it anywhere north at plus three fifty.

717
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: Well, for sure, Navy has had a propensity to play

718
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: close games, and they have performed poorly against inferior competition.

719
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 3: Relative to the spread, beating Temple, as you said, by

720
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 3: one playing close against Air Force and even Rice for

721
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: that matter, and they were down fourteen to nothing against

722
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 3: Tulsa before rallying the troops in the second half to

723
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 3: make that margin a little bit wider than what that

724
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 3: game played to. As far as competitive competitiveness is concerned, yeah,

725
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 3: there's a chance for Florida Atlantic. They really have got

726
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 3: to be crisp in their execution. We've seen such flippant

727
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 3: use of fourth down conversions from Zach Kittley, and they

728
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 3: seem to go for it really whenever they want to,

729
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: whether it makes sense or not. And so they're going

730
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: to have to really be careful with how they decide

731
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 3: to go for those fourth down conversions and win to punt.

732
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 3: I think they're going to have to force Navy to

733
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 3: make a mistake offensive league, maybe create a turnover to

734
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 3: maybe get a special teams play. We just don't see

735
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,760
Speaker 3: Navy blow these teams out, and the style of play

736
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 3: that they operate with offensively, the games are just generally

737
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 3: tight and close. They don't have a lot of interest

738
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 3: in punching in that last score. So certainly FAU would

739
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 3: be appetizing against the number with the fifteen and a half,

740
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 3: and you know what, I think, if you can go

741
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: in there and throw a few rainbow bomb shots over

742
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 3: the Navy defense, they have had this sort of susceptibility

743
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 3: to give it up defensively through the air. And so yeah,

744
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: I mean, any time that you have a skilled passing

745
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 3: attack and solid receivers on the outside and in the

746
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 3: slot like Messer, you have a chance to move the

747
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 3: ball and find yourself in areas where you can score. Now,

748
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 3: the other thing that you'll need to have is you'll

749
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 3: need to have good red zone execution for FAU and

750
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 3: it's just not something we've had this year for the Owls,

751
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: they've had far too many empty red zone trips. But

752
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: if they get that cleaned up and they can turn

753
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: those trips inside the twenty into paider, then yeah, I'd

754
00:35:58,480 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 3: give them a chance for sure.

755
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: But that's it for our moneyline parlay presented by DraftKings.

756
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: You're gonna want to check out the Parlay Express account

757
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: and the free award winning Action Network app where you'll

758
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: be seeing us place this G five moneyline parlay. You're

759
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: also going to find a bunch of other long shot

760
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: bets and parlays there as well. You can also find

761
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 1: the quick slip link in the podcast and video description,

762
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: or visit Action network dot com slash bet now to

763
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 1: find a tail some of the best we've discussed thus far,

764
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: including our G five moneyline parlay. All right, with that,

765
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: we are onto Ducks two minute offense, which means he's

766
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 1: dusting off all of his FCS plays. We're going to

767
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: start with Saint Francis against Bobby Mo, and you're predicting

768
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: a rock fight between these two. Walk me through the

769
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 1: under and how low would you go before there's a cutoff?

770
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: I mean, there may be.

771
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 3: No more slow burning grinder in the ENNEC this season

772
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 3: than what we get this weekend between SFPA and Robert Morris.

773
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 3: Saint Francis is averaging nine points per game this season,

774
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 3: Bobby Mo twelve, Saint Francis two hundred and thirty nine

775
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: total yards per game, and just twelve first downs per

776
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 3: game this season. This team does not have an explosive

777
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 3: rushing play to their credit all year, not one. The

778
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 3: last five Robert Morris games have gone under this projected

779
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 3: total of forty two and a half, and the run

780
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 3: heavy nature of Robert Morris will keep possession of the

781
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 3: ball against the Saint Francis defense that has the worst

782
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 3: run grades in the conference and is also the worst

783
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 3: tackling team. Each of these teams is averaging fifty five

784
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 3: plays per game and with a significant lack of explosivity.

785
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: We are going to need exceptional execution and nearly one

786
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 3: hundred percent touchdown percentage in the red zone in order

787
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 3: to get this one over. The total. I project this

788
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: at forty two and a half. I'd played all the

789
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: way down to forty one under in this game. Next,

790
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: we're going to Lehigh. Lehigh off the bye week, and

791
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 3: you're getting to the point in the season where margin

792
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,280
Speaker 3: of victory really matters to the playoff committee, and Lehigh

793
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: is playing for a top seed and an easier path

794
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: in the FCS playoffs. You're not going to line up

795
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 3: and run the ball here against Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks

796
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 3: are giving up just two and a half yards per

797
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: carry on the ground this season and seventy one rushing

798
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 3: yards per game. This is a far cry from the

799
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 3: old Fordham offenses that we're used to seeing, and the

800
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 3: offensive line is set to get eaten alive in the

801
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 3: trenches here by Lehigh. Twenty five sacks given up by Fordham,

802
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: fifty three tackles for loss surrendered this season, and Lehigh

803
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: thrives at creating pressure defensively and negative plays in the backfield.

804
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 3: Fordham's defense is really bad, giving up four hundred and

805
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 3: sixty yards per game. Leehi is going to gash these

806
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 3: guys on the grounds and will absolutely beat the pants

807
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 3: off this team. I've got this projected at twenty one

808
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 3: and a half. I'd lay up to twenty three and

809
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 3: a half. Next one we're going to is Monmouth. Monmouth

810
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 3: has scored forty two points or more in every game

811
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 3: against FCS competition this season, and the Hawks now line

812
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 3: up against a team that's allowing six and a half

813
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: yards per play and four hundred and eight yards per game.

814
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 3: As This Hampton Pirate defense is just very very leaky.

815
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: Thirty of thirty one red zone trips have resulted in scores,

816
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 3: and this Hampton team just gave up forty nine first

817
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: half points last week to Villanova. Hampton is the second

818
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 3: worst tackling team in the CIA per PFF and possesses

819
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 3: absolutely no pass rush to speak of whatsoever. Derek Robertson

820
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 3: for Monmouth twenty seven touchdown passes this season while completing

821
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 3: seventy two percent. Six receivers for Monmouth have at least

822
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 3: twenty catches this season. The defense for Monmouth is not

823
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 3: a good tackling group, and the Hawks do grade out

824
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 3: as a struggling coverage unit in the CIA. But Hampton

825
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: cannot throw the ball here. The Pirates have played three

826
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: other terrible secondaries in CIA play in Campbell, Villanova, and

827
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: North Carolina A and T thirty five for sixty four

828
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,399
Speaker 3: combined in the three games for three hundred and seventy

829
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 3: eight total passing yards against the three worst secondaries in

830
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: the CIA. They're not going to be able to keep

831
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 3: up here. Monmouth will score forty five or forty eight

832
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 3: again and cover this number. I haven't projected at eighteen.

833
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: I'd lay up to twenty one all right.

834
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 1: Time for my two minute offense is going to start

835
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 1: in the MAC Western Michigan traveling to Oxford to take

836
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: on the RedHawks A Miami of Ohio. They are a

837
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 1: short favorite, lay a point and a half at home.

838
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: We warned everybody that Miami would turn it around. They

839
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: don't really care all that much about their non conference slate,

840
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: but they still should have upset UNLV. They had bad

841
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,240
Speaker 1: injury luck, just bad luck in general in a forty

842
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: one thirty eight loss. Since then four straight wins, all

843
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 1: four by double digits. Defense stuffed NIU and ACRON into

844
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 1: a locker, and the offense came alive against Eastern Michigan,

845
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: dropping forty four points on the Eagles. They're showing off

846
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 1: their depth too. They lose Kenny Tracy for the year,

847
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: but Jordan Brunson comes in a career backup. He's rolled

848
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: for two hundred and sixty seven rushing yards in the

849
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: past three games. The offensive line is playing better. It's

850
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: one of the best run blocking units in the MAC,

851
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: thirty sixth in the line yards, and Da Kwan Fin

852
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: is now pitching in as that true dual threat in

853
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 1: the running game two hundred and thirteen yards and two

854
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,240
Speaker 1: rushing scores in MAC play. I still have my doubts

855
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 1: about this Western Michigan offense, mainly because of the schedule

856
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 1: Rhode Island UMass Ball State. That's basically Taylor made to

857
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 1: throw off some of their season long stats. But even

858
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: with that Cupcake trio now behind them, there's still one

859
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 1: hundred and eleventh in rush EPA one hundred and eighteenth

860
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 1: and passing six s right and one hundred and twenty

861
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: seventh in big play rate on offense. They haven't been

862
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,359
Speaker 1: in a real hole since they played those Big ten

863
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 1: teams in Michigan State and Illinois earlier in the season.

864
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a bit of a

865
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: shock to the system for them and we're going to

866
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: finally see what they're made of, which I believe is

867
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: a below average MAC offense against the best coach in

868
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: the MAC and a quarterback with the highest upside in

869
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: the conference. So I'll go with Miami as a short favorite.

870
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: Then I'm looking for a team total here going over

871
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: twenty nine with Utah State. Four of the Aggie's last

872
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: five games they've hit thirty points. They have balanced with

873
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 1: Barnes and Davis on the ground, they get big play

874
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: upside when Barnes pushes the ball down field. They're all

875
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: the way up to eleventh in big play rate in

876
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 1: the entire country, and Barnes has smoothed over the fact

877
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: that their offensive line isn't very good. You can fall

878
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: in love with this offense as long as you're okay

879
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 1: with a bit of chaos. A bit of negative plays

880
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 1: because this New Mexico defense is going to go boom

881
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 1: or bust. They're going to get some sacks, they're going

882
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 1: to get home and, you know, bring Barnes down down

883
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: in the backfield. But they're also going to give up

884
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: home run plays. On the other side of things. They're

885
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: forty ninth in sacks, but one hundred and thirty second

886
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 1: in havoc and that's the issue here. I think Barnes

887
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 1: is going to be able to handle the pressure. He'll

888
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: still get sacked two or three times in this game,

889
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: but he's going to stand in. He's going to take

890
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: the hits. And essentially, when you look at it, during

891
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 1: this high scoring run, thirty eight points per game across

892
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: the last five, he's taken twelve sacks. So it hasn't

893
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: stopped them from putting points on the board. For some offenses,

894
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: that's too much to overcome. That's not Utah State. This

895
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: is a guy who's rugged, he's tough. He's going to

896
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 1: stand in deliver from me. So I'm going to go

897
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: over the number of twenty nine against the Lobos. I'm

898
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 1: going to finish off with a double dip kind of

899
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: fading the defenses from the land of Enchantment. I'm going

900
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 1: to go Missouri State over on their team total twenty

901
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,919
Speaker 1: six and a half. They're taken on New Mexico State

902
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: Jacob Clark. I think it should be a welcome back situation.

903
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 1: That's the buzz, at least from what I'm hearing. If not,

904
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: it's deuced Bailey and the kid look pretty good in

905
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: relief of Clark against Middle Tennessee. But if it is Clark,

906
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: I think this kid took all of his lumps the

907
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: Missouri offense as well early in the season in those

908
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: paycheck games USC SMU. But then when he finally got

909
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 1: an opportunity to play against teams on an even playing

910
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: field three hundred and fifty nine yards through the year

911
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: three scores against Marshall, he helped the offense drop forty

912
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: two points on UT Martin and then he got hurt. Well,

913
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 1: now he's drawn this New Mexico State defense, and the

914
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 1: Aggies are pitiful. They let Latch score forty nine. New

915
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: Mexico scored thirty eight, Liberty scored thirty. Everyone is moving

916
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 1: the football against the Aggies this season, and everyone can

917
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 1: throw on them. In particular, four their five starting defensive

918
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 1: backs are six feet or shorter, and Missouri State has

919
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: some physical receivers like Tristan Gardner James Blackstrain, who's now healthy.

920
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to win some

921
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,760
Speaker 1: of those jump balls and make either Clark or Bailey

922
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: look good in this game. This was a very high flying,

923
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: high scoring offense at the FCS ranks last year for

924
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 1: Missouri State when Clark was healthy, so I think his

925
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 1: return unlocks the upside of this offense. And one last

926
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 1: piece to this puzzle, Aggie Memorial Stadium. Outside of the

927
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 1: Rio Grand rivalry, the home advantage is non existent. Everybody

928
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: comes in and does whatever they want against New Mexico

929
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: State now that Diego Pop is long gone and playing

930
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: the hits in Nashville, so I don't think you're gonna

931
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 1: have to sweat this roady. I think Missouri State is

932
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: primed for a breakout game offensively, and they get it

933
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,720
Speaker 1: done there. Let's close out this episode with our tug

934
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: of war that's been going on this entire season started

935
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 1: the fifty For those of you listening in for the

936
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: first time. If you get a pick right, just a

937
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: head to head minus one to ten, you're moving the ball.

938
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 1: Ten yards closer to your opponent's end zone. One of

939
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: us hopefully gets into the end zone at the end

940
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: of the season. At this point, I'm starting to roll now.

941
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: I'm at Ducks fifteen. So we're picking an SEC battle.

942
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 1: We're talking Ole Miss against Oklahoma. Which side do you like?

943
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: Duck I, shit boy, tug hard, harder.

944
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lay it with Oklahoma minus four and a

945
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 3: half for this tug of war. Oklahoma legitimately has the

946
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: potentially the best defensive unit in the entire country, and

947
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 3: they're buttoned up at all three levels. PFF grades them

948
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 3: as third overall best defense in the conference in the SEC,

949
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 3: third best pass rushing grades, fourth best coverage unit. Oklahoma

950
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 3: is third nationally in defensive success rate, seventh in defensive

951
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 3: finishing drives. Count them up on your hand. Four total

952
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 3: red zone touchdowns surrendered this season for Oklahoma, twenty eight

953
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 3: sacks registered seventy five tackles for loss this season. Their

954
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 3: seventh and early down success Oklahoma is first nationally in

955
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 3: pass play success rate, allowing only twenty five percent of

956
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 3: their third down attempts against them to be converted successfully.

957
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 3: Two and a half yards per carry on the ground

958
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 3: and eighty one rushing yards per game given up and

959
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 3: just eleven first downs per game given up on average.

960
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 3: Nobody has been able to move the ball on these guys.

961
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 3: The defense is flat out nasty. We've seen the Old

962
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 3: Miss offense struggle in two of the last three weeks

963
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 3: against Wazoo and LSU Specifically, these guys are coming after

964
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 3: Trinidad and are going to make life hell for him

965
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: in the backfield and for this Ole Miss offense, I

966
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 3: fully expect another low scoring game. Oklahoma has been very

967
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 3: comfortable in low scoring games. Their offense has been completely

968
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 3: content with playing conservatively and playing the field position game.

969
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 3: I'll win this one by a touchdown in a low

970
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 3: scoring game. I do have an official play on this one,

971
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 3: which is Ole Miss's team total under twenty four and

972
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 3: a half. But I'll lay it here with the best

973
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 3: defense in the land.

974
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 4: All right.

975
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 1: Obviously I'm on the other side. I'm taking the land

976
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: Sharks plus the four and a half. Let me ask

977
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 1: you this question, Duck, name the top two offenses that

978
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: Oklahoma has stuffed this season, just you know, off the

979
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 1: top of your head, who would you say are the

980
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,240
Speaker 1: top offense of the that they have faced.

981
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: Well, we'll probably have to say Texas and Auburn.

982
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's not that's not a great top two. I

983
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: mean Auburn, we know basically that the book has been

984
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 1: written on Jackson Arnold and then arch Manning has struggled

985
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: against everyone this season. I think with the exception of

986
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:47,280
Speaker 1: what Sam Houston, I mean South Carolina last week playing

987
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: you know, the broken offense there in Colombia, I just

988
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: I look at this and I think their defense is legit.

989
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: I think their numbers are in this rarefied air because

990
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 1: they're not playing against quarterbacks who have a lot of

991
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: eperience for offenses that are fully functional. And then when

992
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: I just break down the quarterback matchup, what materia are

993
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 1: we going to get for the Sooners because we don't

994
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 1: really know at this point. He was severely limited coming

995
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 1: off of injury. Against Texas, he throws three interceptions. I

996
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: think everyone just applauded him for being gritty and trying

997
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 1: to play through it. But then he comes back against

998
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 1: South Carolina. He's a checkdown merchant, no rushing upside that

999
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: I don't think is going to cut it against this

1000
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 1: old miss offense that I do think is going to

1001
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: score points I mean Shampass had three hundred and five

1002
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 1: total yards and three touchdowns. He got Ole Miss up

1003
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: by eleven in the fourth quarter against Georgia, and his

1004
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: defense couldn't get any stops to pull out the win.

1005
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 1: I think this guy is somebody that can basically improvise

1006
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: and be a red zone weapon. You saw it, you know,

1007
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: with him getting in the end zone against Georgia. I'm

1008
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 1: willing to take the points just for the fact that

1009
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 1: my numbers have this as Oklahoma minus one, minus one

1010
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 1: and a half. So to get over that key number

1011
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: of three and even the key number of four to

1012
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 1: a certain degree, I think there's too much value to

1013
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: pass up there for an Old Miss team that if

1014
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: they get one turnover, one fluky fumble, all of a

1015
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: sudden they beat Georgia. And what's the narrative on them

1016
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: at this point. It's that they're the third best or

1017
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: second best team in the entire country and people are

1018
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:15,760
Speaker 1: taking everything they're doing offensively as gospel. It's whatever Lane

1019
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 1: can do and whatever he puts out there, it seems

1020
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 1: to be working. Shambliss, I just love this kid. I

1021
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: think he's a playmaker, and he's also a playmaker off script,

1022
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma with menibles, will be able to take

1023
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 1: away a lot of their favorite things that they want

1024
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: to do, and it's going to be on Shambless to

1025
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 1: improvise and make things happen. Even the best defensive coordinators

1026
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: in the entire country they always say it, you go

1027
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,879
Speaker 1: in with this game plan, but you can't game plan

1028
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: for a true mobile quarterback who just improvises when things

1029
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 1: break down. So with that being said, I'll take the points.

1030
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma, in terms of the outright winner, probably

1031
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: is the right side here. But I think this is

1032
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 1: going to be a really tight game. And I also

1033
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: have the out of if Mateer really can't play the

1034
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 1: way he did pre injury, what kind of cap does

1035
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: that put on the Sooners offense. I think somebody to

1036
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 1: consider they're if I get this one, I'm knocking on

1037
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 1: the door. I'll be at your five yard line. If not,

1038
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: I feel like we could be headed for a draw

1039
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: by season's end. But we'll see if I can cash

1040
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: this in the red zone. It's all about finishing drives

1041
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 1: here on the Group of five deep dive. All right,

1042
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 1: that'll do it for the episode. Thanks for listening. This

1043
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 1: has been the Group of Five Deep Dive under the

1044
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus banner presented by DraftKings. Thanks as

1045
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: always for tuning in. Don't forget to download the free

1046
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app and leave us a five

1047
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 1: star rating and review wherever you listen to the pod.

1048
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and pick out a five star

1049
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 1: review and give out a future for the rest of

1050
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five season, so please keep them pouring in.

1051
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: You can say whatever you want, just a five star review.

1052
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: Bonus points if you throw anything directly related to the

1053
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:42,400
Speaker 1: Group of Five Deep Dive. And remember if you want

1054
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 1: to tail the bets that you heard in today's episode,

1055
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 1: there are quick slip links to make it as easy

1056
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: as possible for you. They are embedded in the episode description.

1057
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 1: You can also go to actionework dot com slash bet now.

1058
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: If you haven't already, please please please subscribe to our

1059
00:49:56,280 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: YouTube channel search for BBOC subscribe like comment. It'll help

1060
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 1: us get more exposure for the brand. Check out our

1061
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,720
Speaker 1: guys Stucky on the Favorites every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday,

1062
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: and as always, Stucky in Colin will have their full

1063
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: Week nine preview on Thursday, so be sure to be

1064
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 1: updating your podcast feed you want to get the best

1065
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 1: bets at the best numbers. Thanks for listening to the

1066
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast and as always, the best

1067
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 1: of luck with all your bets. Action Network reminds you

1068
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1069
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

1070
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler