1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:28,436 Speaker 1: Pushkin. It's easy to think that technology is just about ideas, words, numbers, math, algorithms, 2 00:00:29,076 --> 00:00:33,516 Speaker 1: But of course technology is and always has been, about stuff, 3 00:00:34,276 --> 00:00:38,876 Speaker 1: and in particular, it's about combining ideas with that stuff. 4 00:00:39,036 --> 00:00:41,836 Speaker 1: It's about figuring out how to use copper to send 5 00:00:41,876 --> 00:00:45,236 Speaker 1: electricity around the world, how to turn sand into glass 6 00:00:45,396 --> 00:00:48,596 Speaker 1: and cement and chips. It's about coming up with clever 7 00:00:48,676 --> 00:00:51,116 Speaker 1: ways to make cheap steel so that we can build 8 00:00:51,196 --> 00:00:55,556 Speaker 1: basically anything we want. And looking at technology and the 9 00:00:55,636 --> 00:00:59,556 Speaker 1: history of technology through the lens of those essential materials 10 00:00:59,676 --> 00:01:03,276 Speaker 1: of that stuff turns out to be a really interesting 11 00:01:03,516 --> 00:01:13,676 Speaker 1: and surprisingly useful way of thinking about the world. I'm 12 00:01:13,756 --> 00:01:16,476 Speaker 1: Jacob Goldstein, and this is what's your problem. My guest 13 00:01:16,476 --> 00:01:20,516 Speaker 1: today is Ed Conway. He's an economics journalist and he 14 00:01:20,556 --> 00:01:24,396 Speaker 1: wrote a book called Material World, The Six raw Materials 15 00:01:24,436 --> 00:01:28,836 Speaker 1: that shape Modern Civilization. I talked to Ed about three 16 00:01:28,876 --> 00:01:32,796 Speaker 1: of the six materials. We talked about iron, because the 17 00:01:32,796 --> 00:01:36,076 Speaker 1: story of iron really is the story of the industrial revolution, 18 00:01:36,556 --> 00:01:38,836 Speaker 1: and for that matter, the story of the wealth and 19 00:01:38,876 --> 00:01:42,596 Speaker 1: poverty of nations around the world today. We also talked 20 00:01:42,636 --> 00:01:45,956 Speaker 1: about copper, which is of course the story of electricity 21 00:01:46,316 --> 00:01:49,396 Speaker 1: and the energy transition we're going through now. But copper 22 00:01:49,516 --> 00:01:53,196 Speaker 1: is also a story about humanity's ability to be very 23 00:01:53,196 --> 00:01:56,076 Speaker 1: clever in getting the thing that we need, even when 24 00:01:56,116 --> 00:01:57,836 Speaker 1: it seems like we're going to run out of that thing. 25 00:01:58,276 --> 00:02:01,676 Speaker 1: So those two materials, copper and iron, they are the 26 00:02:01,716 --> 00:02:04,156 Speaker 1: second part of the show. In the first part of 27 00:02:04,196 --> 00:02:08,196 Speaker 1: the show, Ed and I talked about sand, sand, which 28 00:02:08,436 --> 00:02:10,636 Speaker 1: after reading Ed's book, I have come to think is 29 00:02:10,676 --> 00:02:14,596 Speaker 1: a highly underrated material. Sand, of course, is essential for 30 00:02:14,676 --> 00:02:18,236 Speaker 1: making chips and making cement, both of which we have 31 00:02:18,316 --> 00:02:21,076 Speaker 1: covered on other episodes of this show. So Ed and 32 00:02:21,076 --> 00:02:24,956 Speaker 1: I focused on another material made out of sand, glass, 33 00:02:25,476 --> 00:02:29,156 Speaker 1: And as Ed explains, glass really was central to the 34 00:02:29,196 --> 00:02:33,636 Speaker 1: emergence of the modern world starting around the sixteenth century 35 00:02:33,796 --> 00:02:34,596 Speaker 1: the Venetians. 36 00:02:34,956 --> 00:02:38,076 Speaker 2: That was really the first moment where they were able 37 00:02:38,076 --> 00:02:42,276 Speaker 2: to create a truly clear, perfect type of glass, of 38 00:02:42,316 --> 00:02:45,556 Speaker 2: the type that we could recognize these days. Roman glass 39 00:02:45,596 --> 00:02:49,396 Speaker 2: was often beautiful, but it was a bit cloudy. The 40 00:02:49,436 --> 00:02:51,836 Speaker 2: Venetians really mastered it, and part of the trick to 41 00:02:51,876 --> 00:02:55,196 Speaker 2: that was obviously expertise and bringing in people who knew 42 00:02:55,196 --> 00:02:57,316 Speaker 2: how to do it. And they were based on this island, 43 00:02:57,316 --> 00:02:58,796 Speaker 2: the island of Murano, which is. 44 00:02:58,796 --> 00:03:00,036 Speaker 3: Just an off Venis. 45 00:03:00,596 --> 00:03:03,436 Speaker 2: They were forbidden to leave so that there was this 46 00:03:04,396 --> 00:03:06,436 Speaker 2: in the same way that people making silicon chips in 47 00:03:06,476 --> 00:03:08,636 Speaker 2: Taiwan these days are not allowed to go to China. 48 00:03:08,756 --> 00:03:10,916 Speaker 3: It was a same thing with morano. 49 00:03:10,716 --> 00:03:15,436 Speaker 1: And it's like like a trade secret basically, like the 50 00:03:15,916 --> 00:03:19,396 Speaker 1: Venetians are traders. This is like a competitive advantage essentially 51 00:03:19,476 --> 00:03:24,356 Speaker 1: a technological advantage they have and they're logging it down exactly. 52 00:03:23,876 --> 00:03:26,276 Speaker 2: It's really analogous to what, you know, what we have 53 00:03:26,316 --> 00:03:28,796 Speaker 2: these days with silicon check, I mean silicon technology as well. 54 00:03:29,676 --> 00:03:30,356 Speaker 3: That's also sad. 55 00:03:30,636 --> 00:03:33,076 Speaker 2: They cracked it, and partly they cracked it because they 56 00:03:33,116 --> 00:03:36,356 Speaker 2: found a really good source of sand. Actually it's little 57 00:03:36,396 --> 00:03:39,036 Speaker 2: quartz chips that they found in the rivers just kind 58 00:03:39,036 --> 00:03:41,996 Speaker 2: of on the Swiss Italian border, and because they cracked it. 59 00:03:42,036 --> 00:03:45,036 Speaker 2: You know, if you look back, like one of my 60 00:03:45,156 --> 00:03:48,276 Speaker 2: favorite kind of stories, it's kind of theory, but to 61 00:03:48,276 --> 00:03:51,236 Speaker 2: me it's a really compelling theory, is that the Renaissance, 62 00:03:51,276 --> 00:03:54,436 Speaker 2: you know, there's great flowering of artistic kind of ability and. 63 00:03:54,596 --> 00:03:56,916 Speaker 3: Where painters discovered how to use perspective. 64 00:03:57,516 --> 00:03:59,516 Speaker 2: You know, there's this moment where it goes from being 65 00:03:59,596 --> 00:04:04,876 Speaker 2: really two D kind of Giotto, medieval style paintings of 66 00:04:04,956 --> 00:04:07,996 Speaker 2: Christ and all of these different kind of icons to 67 00:04:08,076 --> 00:04:10,596 Speaker 2: being something that's three D and something's more recognizable as 68 00:04:10,636 --> 00:04:14,276 Speaker 2: a painting of the Renaissance. The prevailing theory is basically 69 00:04:14,356 --> 00:04:17,116 Speaker 2: what happened there, There was just this moment dawning realization, 70 00:04:17,236 --> 00:04:19,556 Speaker 2: and people worked out how to do perspective. And it's 71 00:04:19,636 --> 00:04:22,836 Speaker 2: this enlightenment to me, a much more compelling explanation. 72 00:04:22,876 --> 00:04:25,556 Speaker 3: It's one that David Hockney and a few other theorists 73 00:04:25,556 --> 00:04:26,396 Speaker 3: have posited. 74 00:04:26,516 --> 00:04:28,636 Speaker 1: David Harckney the artist, David Hockney. 75 00:04:28,356 --> 00:04:30,596 Speaker 2: The artist has wrote a whole book on this a 76 00:04:30,596 --> 00:04:32,716 Speaker 2: few years ago and actually did this great documentary which 77 00:04:32,716 --> 00:04:36,476 Speaker 2: you can find on YouTube about this, basically saying, no, 78 00:04:36,796 --> 00:04:39,876 Speaker 2: what happened was they worked out how to use lenses. 79 00:04:39,916 --> 00:04:42,316 Speaker 2: They worked out how to make glass lenses that enabled 80 00:04:42,356 --> 00:04:45,116 Speaker 2: them to make camera obscurers and other different types of 81 00:04:45,156 --> 00:04:49,996 Speaker 2: contractions that enabled them to basically trace out the outline 82 00:04:50,036 --> 00:04:52,436 Speaker 2: of what was happening in a studio or in a 83 00:04:52,436 --> 00:04:55,836 Speaker 2: picture or whatever. And there are artifacts of this because 84 00:04:55,876 --> 00:04:58,316 Speaker 2: if you look at certain pictures, particularly from those early 85 00:04:58,396 --> 00:05:02,036 Speaker 2: kind of medieval, well early Renaissance paintings, and also some 86 00:05:02,116 --> 00:05:05,796 Speaker 2: from the Dutch Golden Era. You see, for instance, that 87 00:05:06,156 --> 00:05:08,796 Speaker 2: parts of the painting go out of focus and something 88 00:05:08,876 --> 00:05:11,476 Speaker 2: going focus. The human eye doesn't really go out of 89 00:05:11,516 --> 00:05:15,436 Speaker 2: focus in that way, but through a lens things do 90 00:05:15,556 --> 00:05:18,676 Speaker 2: go out of focus. And so Hockney points out, and 91 00:05:18,716 --> 00:05:20,636 Speaker 2: like I say, I think it's a really compelling case 92 00:05:20,996 --> 00:05:24,036 Speaker 2: that the places that where you had this flowering of 93 00:05:24,636 --> 00:05:28,516 Speaker 2: you know, enlightenments and beautiful paintings that use perspective also 94 00:05:28,676 --> 00:05:31,596 Speaker 2: happened to be close to the great places where glass 95 00:05:31,676 --> 00:05:35,996 Speaker 2: was being manufactured, so Venice, in the Netherlands, in England 96 00:05:35,996 --> 00:05:37,996 Speaker 2: as well to some extent, although our painting wasn't quite 97 00:05:38,036 --> 00:05:41,116 Speaker 2: so great, wherever there was great glass making there also 98 00:05:41,196 --> 00:05:43,636 Speaker 2: happened to be great enlightenment leaks forward. 99 00:05:44,756 --> 00:05:47,876 Speaker 1: The Renaissance is sort of following, and so you need 100 00:05:47,916 --> 00:05:49,996 Speaker 1: the glass to be able to make the lens, and 101 00:05:50,036 --> 00:05:54,556 Speaker 1: in Hockney's argument, you need the lens to project the 102 00:05:54,596 --> 00:05:58,276 Speaker 1: world onto a two dimensional surface. Except from that projection 103 00:05:58,476 --> 00:06:00,036 Speaker 1: then you can learn perspective. 104 00:06:00,116 --> 00:06:02,956 Speaker 2: Exactly, Then you learn perspective, and obviously in the same 105 00:06:02,996 --> 00:06:06,036 Speaker 2: way that you have enabling technologies throughout history. You know, 106 00:06:06,316 --> 00:06:07,436 Speaker 2: right now we're thinking of AI. 107 00:06:07,956 --> 00:06:11,276 Speaker 1: So was Leonardo t Yeah, yeah, he was. 108 00:06:11,876 --> 00:06:14,116 Speaker 2: He was, and so were you know, so were many 109 00:06:14,116 --> 00:06:16,156 Speaker 2: of these artists. And I don't think there's anything kind 110 00:06:16,156 --> 00:06:17,196 Speaker 2: of to be ashamed of here. 111 00:06:17,556 --> 00:06:20,356 Speaker 1: No, especially if you discover tracing. If you're like, wait 112 00:06:20,436 --> 00:06:21,796 Speaker 1: a minute, I can trace. 113 00:06:22,036 --> 00:06:25,036 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then suddenly it's a lot of as every 114 00:06:25,116 --> 00:06:27,836 Speaker 2: kid knows, it's a lot easier suddenly, And that's what 115 00:06:27,876 --> 00:06:29,236 Speaker 2: they were doing. But they were doing it with great 116 00:06:29,316 --> 00:06:32,356 Speaker 2: panashion style, and we've kind of, I think, forgotten that. 117 00:06:32,396 --> 00:06:34,676 Speaker 2: But there's there's a very material explanation. 118 00:06:34,636 --> 00:06:37,876 Speaker 1: In a similar thing. You also talk about the relationship 119 00:06:38,036 --> 00:06:42,316 Speaker 1: of improvements in glass technology to the scientific revolution, which was, 120 00:06:42,796 --> 00:06:44,676 Speaker 1: you know, around this same time. 121 00:06:44,916 --> 00:06:45,116 Speaker 3: Yeah. 122 00:06:45,156 --> 00:06:47,476 Speaker 2: Well, I mean if you look and again, I find 123 00:06:47,476 --> 00:06:48,836 Speaker 2: this kind of mind blowing. 124 00:06:48,876 --> 00:06:51,916 Speaker 1: And that one seems clearer. Again, no pun intended that one. 125 00:06:52,156 --> 00:06:54,876 Speaker 1: That argument seems less tenuous. 126 00:06:55,156 --> 00:06:56,876 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't know, I don't know, I don't 127 00:06:56,876 --> 00:06:58,516 Speaker 2: know if it's okay, respectful. 128 00:06:58,956 --> 00:07:01,916 Speaker 1: How about this? That argument seems more compelling. That's a 129 00:07:01,996 --> 00:07:03,716 Speaker 1: nicer way of saying less tenuous. 130 00:07:03,916 --> 00:07:06,836 Speaker 3: It's even more compelling, isn't it. Yeah, it's even more compelling. 131 00:07:07,036 --> 00:07:09,476 Speaker 2: It's it's if you look at basically I think the 132 00:07:09,556 --> 00:07:12,836 Speaker 2: vast majority of scientific discoveries that were made in that 133 00:07:12,836 --> 00:07:14,756 Speaker 2: period of the great you know, the Enlightenment, the kind 134 00:07:14,756 --> 00:07:17,796 Speaker 2: of eighteenth nineteenth century, seventeenth some excent. 135 00:07:17,676 --> 00:07:20,556 Speaker 1: Even earlier, right, like Galileo, right, Like, you don't even 136 00:07:20,596 --> 00:07:22,636 Speaker 1: have to leave galileanly. 137 00:07:22,196 --> 00:07:24,556 Speaker 2: So telescope, I mean, how do we pair into space? 138 00:07:24,596 --> 00:07:28,356 Speaker 2: And this was all thanks to our ability to harness sand, 139 00:07:28,556 --> 00:07:30,916 Speaker 2: turn it into glass, and then turn it into you know, 140 00:07:30,996 --> 00:07:33,956 Speaker 2: kind of sand that down into beautiful lenses that enabled 141 00:07:33,996 --> 00:07:36,596 Speaker 2: us to see further or indeed see kind of deepest, 142 00:07:36,596 --> 00:07:39,156 Speaker 2: so microscopically, that was glass. 143 00:07:39,956 --> 00:07:43,196 Speaker 1: You don't discover the cell until you have a microscope, 144 00:07:43,196 --> 00:07:45,436 Speaker 1: and you don't have a microscope until you have really 145 00:07:45,476 --> 00:07:49,436 Speaker 1: good glass. Right. And I feel like tools, like this 146 00:07:49,476 --> 00:07:52,956 Speaker 1: is the story of tools, right, and tools are underrated 147 00:07:53,116 --> 00:07:54,236 Speaker 1: in scientific. 148 00:07:53,796 --> 00:07:55,836 Speaker 3: Discovery, right, like totally. 149 00:07:56,316 --> 00:07:58,956 Speaker 1: Once you have a telescope, then somebody is going to 150 00:07:58,996 --> 00:08:01,516 Speaker 1: see the moons of Jupiter. Once you have a microscope, 151 00:08:01,756 --> 00:08:03,556 Speaker 1: somebody is going to see a cell. The hard part 152 00:08:03,636 --> 00:08:05,596 Speaker 1: is getting the telescope and the microscope. 153 00:08:05,676 --> 00:08:08,236 Speaker 2: Yeah, and yet the thing we celebrate and understandably is 154 00:08:08,396 --> 00:08:11,596 Speaker 2: we celebrate the Galileos and the van Luveruk, who's one 155 00:08:11,636 --> 00:08:15,796 Speaker 2: of those first great people looking down into microscopes. But yeah, 156 00:08:15,836 --> 00:08:18,716 Speaker 2: they needed the contractions and also they needed to rely 157 00:08:18,796 --> 00:08:21,236 Speaker 2: on people to make really good glass for them, because 158 00:08:21,276 --> 00:08:23,636 Speaker 2: you could you needed really clear glass to be able 159 00:08:23,676 --> 00:08:26,596 Speaker 2: to peer down into this. And the funny thing I've discovered, 160 00:08:26,636 --> 00:08:29,756 Speaker 2: you know, looking back through that history of the Enlightenment, 161 00:08:30,076 --> 00:08:31,996 Speaker 2: what you kind of notice if you look through lots 162 00:08:32,036 --> 00:08:34,236 Speaker 2: of the stories and the accounts, is that so many 163 00:08:34,236 --> 00:08:36,756 Speaker 2: of the people who were scientists and renowned actually as 164 00:08:36,796 --> 00:08:38,196 Speaker 2: scientists for something else. 165 00:08:38,396 --> 00:08:40,316 Speaker 3: Michael Faraday is a really good example, you know. 166 00:08:40,316 --> 00:08:42,996 Speaker 1: Electoral magnets, electromagnets, basically the electricity. 167 00:08:43,236 --> 00:08:46,796 Speaker 2: He's the electricity guy. He was also totally obsessed with glass, 168 00:08:46,996 --> 00:08:49,436 Speaker 2: so he used to make his own glass. Actually one 169 00:08:49,436 --> 00:08:51,956 Speaker 2: of the earliest recipes for something called boris silicate glass, 170 00:08:51,956 --> 00:08:54,476 Speaker 2: which is like these days what we use for test 171 00:08:54,476 --> 00:08:57,156 Speaker 2: tubes and the vials that you get your kind of 172 00:08:57,236 --> 00:08:58,516 Speaker 2: vaccines and medicines in. 173 00:08:59,116 --> 00:09:00,756 Speaker 3: There's really hard type of glass. 174 00:09:00,836 --> 00:09:02,836 Speaker 1: So is that related to pyrex to the glass you 175 00:09:02,876 --> 00:09:03,356 Speaker 1: can put in. 176 00:09:03,276 --> 00:09:06,396 Speaker 2: The oven is Boris silicate glass. It's just you know, 177 00:09:06,836 --> 00:09:10,396 Speaker 2: the trademark. But Faraday, he I don't know if invented 178 00:09:10,436 --> 00:09:12,876 Speaker 2: to the right word. But he was a tinkerer with glass, 179 00:09:12,956 --> 00:09:15,276 Speaker 2: and he made an early form of boris silica glass 180 00:09:15,276 --> 00:09:17,636 Speaker 2: because everyone was doing it. And if you look back, 181 00:09:17,676 --> 00:09:20,156 Speaker 2: there's this great book Making of the Atomic Bomb by 182 00:09:21,276 --> 00:09:24,796 Speaker 2: Richard Rhodes. I was reading it after having written this book, 183 00:09:24,916 --> 00:09:27,636 Speaker 2: and I was struck by how many times within the 184 00:09:27,716 --> 00:09:31,316 Speaker 2: discovery of how to split the atom, people were waylaid 185 00:09:31,396 --> 00:09:33,756 Speaker 2: by getting hold of the right glass. Because you need 186 00:09:33,756 --> 00:09:36,916 Speaker 2: a glass within which to do your experiments, because glass 187 00:09:36,956 --> 00:09:39,516 Speaker 2: is very inert, obviously, and it's the inertness of glass 188 00:09:39,516 --> 00:09:43,316 Speaker 2: that makes it really important, you know, for doing chemical experiments, 189 00:09:43,356 --> 00:09:46,276 Speaker 2: for making vacuums, all of these things. So if you 190 00:09:46,316 --> 00:09:48,476 Speaker 2: look at pretty much I think the vast majority of 191 00:09:48,476 --> 00:09:52,036 Speaker 2: different scientific discoveries during the Enlightenment, and some authors did 192 00:09:52,036 --> 00:09:54,756 Speaker 2: a survey of here are the great discoveries, how many 193 00:09:54,756 --> 00:09:56,836 Speaker 2: of them depended one way or another on glass, whether 194 00:09:56,876 --> 00:10:00,476 Speaker 2: it's a test ubes, vacuum chambers, or indeed lenses. 195 00:10:01,036 --> 00:10:02,156 Speaker 3: It's the majority of them. 196 00:10:02,396 --> 00:10:06,436 Speaker 2: And so our scientific world is built on glass as well. 197 00:10:06,876 --> 00:10:08,716 Speaker 2: So we think this stuff is kind of historic. And 198 00:10:08,756 --> 00:10:11,116 Speaker 2: that goes by the way for even right now, because 199 00:10:11,676 --> 00:10:14,236 Speaker 2: there are when we're making silicon chips, and maybe we'll 200 00:10:14,276 --> 00:10:16,156 Speaker 2: come onto this. When you're making a lot of kind 201 00:10:16,156 --> 00:10:19,876 Speaker 2: of advanced equipments, you still need optics. And for great optics, 202 00:10:19,876 --> 00:10:21,716 Speaker 2: you still need excellent glass. 203 00:10:22,316 --> 00:10:26,076 Speaker 1: Well, fiber optics you talk about in the book, right right, 204 00:10:26,236 --> 00:10:29,876 Speaker 1: talk about fiber optics. That seems like the obvious contemporary yeah, 205 00:10:29,956 --> 00:10:31,196 Speaker 1: glass case. 206 00:10:31,956 --> 00:10:32,116 Speaker 3: You know. 207 00:10:32,196 --> 00:10:33,996 Speaker 2: Fiber optics I think is a really good example of 208 00:10:34,036 --> 00:10:38,196 Speaker 2: the underlining of our forgetting of the materiality of our world. 209 00:10:38,276 --> 00:10:40,356 Speaker 2: Because when people think about the Internet, I think, because 210 00:10:40,396 --> 00:10:41,356 Speaker 2: we have Wi Fi, just. 211 00:10:41,396 --> 00:10:44,236 Speaker 1: That last twenty feet is just the last twenty feet 212 00:10:44,276 --> 00:10:45,076 Speaker 1: that's going through the air. 213 00:10:45,116 --> 00:10:47,556 Speaker 2: But that's the twenty feet that we're familiar with, you know, 214 00:10:47,596 --> 00:10:48,676 Speaker 2: That's what we're aware of. 215 00:10:49,036 --> 00:10:51,036 Speaker 1: So what's the rest. What are the other I'm talking 216 00:10:51,036 --> 00:10:53,956 Speaker 1: to you, three thousand miles away, four thousand miles away, 217 00:10:53,956 --> 00:10:54,556 Speaker 1: what's going. 218 00:10:54,436 --> 00:10:56,956 Speaker 2: Through The majority of all of the bits that they're 219 00:10:57,036 --> 00:11:00,116 Speaker 2: enabling us to talk are going on fiber optics. They're 220 00:11:00,116 --> 00:11:03,676 Speaker 2: going on fiber optics. In our case, underneath the Atlantic Ocean, 221 00:11:03,996 --> 00:11:07,796 Speaker 2: there's only a teensy tiny bit where things are traveling 222 00:11:07,836 --> 00:11:10,556 Speaker 2: through the air. The World Wide Web is a physical 223 00:11:10,636 --> 00:11:14,076 Speaker 2: structure with loads of fiber optics, loads of service centers, 224 00:11:14,276 --> 00:11:16,916 Speaker 2: and each of those fiber optic cables is a tiny 225 00:11:16,956 --> 00:11:20,876 Speaker 2: little strand of glass. It's actually two types of glass, 226 00:11:20,956 --> 00:11:25,036 Speaker 2: kind of one inside the other. Which again, that's our world. 227 00:11:25,156 --> 00:11:29,676 Speaker 2: Our world depends on glass. We can't have the Internet 228 00:11:29,716 --> 00:11:32,996 Speaker 2: without glass. And again we forget that, we're kind of 229 00:11:33,076 --> 00:11:33,956 Speaker 2: encouraged to forget it. 230 00:11:34,876 --> 00:11:38,276 Speaker 1: Not anymore. I want to make one more stop on 231 00:11:38,476 --> 00:11:41,916 Speaker 1: glass before we move on, because it was truly surprising 232 00:11:41,956 --> 00:11:44,836 Speaker 1: to me, and I'm happy that I know it tell 233 00:11:44,836 --> 00:11:50,636 Speaker 1: me about the shortage of lenses in the UK in 234 00:11:50,676 --> 00:11:51,396 Speaker 1: World War One. 235 00:11:51,716 --> 00:11:53,396 Speaker 2: I think this is actually a great story because it 236 00:11:53,396 --> 00:11:56,156 Speaker 2: tells you quite a lot about what we're going through 237 00:11:56,196 --> 00:11:59,916 Speaker 2: right now with period of you know, de industrialization in 238 00:12:00,076 --> 00:12:03,316 Speaker 2: the US, Europe everywhere else and wondering like how on 239 00:12:03,316 --> 00:12:06,116 Speaker 2: earth do we turn this around. So for a long time, 240 00:12:06,436 --> 00:12:08,796 Speaker 2: England was kind of at the cutting edge of glass 241 00:12:08,796 --> 00:12:11,716 Speaker 2: technol A lot of the great lenses were made here. 242 00:12:11,756 --> 00:12:15,356 Speaker 2: You've got Michael Faraday obsessing over glass and Crown glass. 243 00:12:15,676 --> 00:12:18,756 Speaker 2: A lot of achievements that then led to really good 244 00:12:18,756 --> 00:12:22,396 Speaker 2: optics happened in England. And then they decided the governments 245 00:12:22,556 --> 00:12:24,876 Speaker 2: as they often do needed to raise money for the 246 00:12:24,916 --> 00:12:27,996 Speaker 2: wars against France, and they decided to tax glass making 247 00:12:28,476 --> 00:12:29,796 Speaker 2: and they also tax windows. 248 00:12:29,916 --> 00:12:33,436 Speaker 3: So in England you have lots of older. 249 00:12:33,156 --> 00:12:36,156 Speaker 2: Houses, particularly ones that are kind of Georgian and Queen 250 00:12:36,156 --> 00:12:38,436 Speaker 2: Anne's so kind of going back like two three hundred 251 00:12:38,516 --> 00:12:40,436 Speaker 2: years where if you look at them, suddenly some of 252 00:12:40,476 --> 00:12:42,516 Speaker 2: the windows have been bricked up. And the reason they 253 00:12:42,596 --> 00:12:44,836 Speaker 2: bricks up is because the government decided to impose a 254 00:12:44,916 --> 00:12:47,236 Speaker 2: tax on however many windows you had, you would have 255 00:12:47,236 --> 00:12:48,036 Speaker 2: to pay more tax. 256 00:12:48,196 --> 00:12:50,356 Speaker 1: It's a sort of seeing like a state thing. Right, 257 00:12:50,396 --> 00:12:52,956 Speaker 1: It's like what can somebody walk down the street and 258 00:12:53,116 --> 00:12:56,876 Speaker 1: count from the street, right, Yeah the legibility, Yeah, legibility 259 00:12:56,916 --> 00:12:57,916 Speaker 1: is good, right yeah. 260 00:12:57,756 --> 00:13:00,276 Speaker 2: Counting windows, but also actually chimneys was another thing. 261 00:13:00,516 --> 00:13:00,636 Speaker 3: Uh. 262 00:13:01,156 --> 00:13:03,356 Speaker 2: So the government wanted to tax glass, they wanted to 263 00:13:03,396 --> 00:13:04,676 Speaker 2: raise lots of money, and they did, and they raised 264 00:13:04,716 --> 00:13:06,476 Speaker 2: leads of money and that was great for them. But 265 00:13:07,036 --> 00:13:08,556 Speaker 2: partly as a result of that, a lot of the 266 00:13:08,876 --> 00:13:11,036 Speaker 2: innervation in glass shifted elsewhere. 267 00:13:11,316 --> 00:13:12,716 Speaker 3: And actually Germany, which was. 268 00:13:12,676 --> 00:13:16,796 Speaker 2: Beginning to engage in what you today call industrial strategies, 269 00:13:16,876 --> 00:13:22,236 Speaker 2: so the government governmental organizations starting to introduce kind of subsidies. 270 00:13:22,516 --> 00:13:25,196 Speaker 2: They really focused on glass because it was you know, 271 00:13:25,276 --> 00:13:28,676 Speaker 2: this was an opportunity. This is eighteen hundreds and you've 272 00:13:28,716 --> 00:13:32,676 Speaker 2: got actually Gerte, the kind of famous statesman poet, was 273 00:13:32,756 --> 00:13:36,396 Speaker 2: really heavily involved in this, to the extent that in 274 00:13:36,916 --> 00:13:38,556 Speaker 2: what is now kind of towards the. 275 00:13:38,476 --> 00:13:40,116 Speaker 3: East of Germany it became East Germany. 276 00:13:40,556 --> 00:13:43,636 Speaker 2: You had in a town called Jenna, there was a 277 00:13:43,756 --> 00:13:47,596 Speaker 2: university that a lot of money went into which encouraged 278 00:13:47,836 --> 00:13:50,836 Speaker 2: investigation and also kind of manufacture of glass. And out 279 00:13:50,836 --> 00:13:54,956 Speaker 2: of that that hub of manufacturing came some names that 280 00:13:54,996 --> 00:13:55,996 Speaker 2: we will probably. 281 00:13:55,676 --> 00:13:58,876 Speaker 3: Recognize today, like Seis. A guy called Carl Seiss. 282 00:13:58,876 --> 00:14:02,396 Speaker 2: Became a really big kind of manufacturer of glass, indeed 283 00:14:02,636 --> 00:14:06,356 Speaker 2: of lenses. And the long story short is that Germany 284 00:14:06,356 --> 00:14:09,796 Speaker 2: became really dominant in the manufacture of really good, quite 285 00:14:09,876 --> 00:14:14,476 Speaker 2: cheap optical glass, and the English industry basically withered away. 286 00:14:14,796 --> 00:14:18,076 Speaker 2: France had slightly withered away as well, and in Germany's 287 00:14:18,236 --> 00:14:23,916 Speaker 2: Seiss binoculars and telescopes and sniperscopes became totally dominant, to 288 00:14:23,956 --> 00:14:28,796 Speaker 2: the extent that come nineteen fourteen, England is importing about 289 00:14:28,836 --> 00:14:33,156 Speaker 2: sixty percent of all of its binoculars from Germany's Zeiss binoculars. 290 00:14:33,476 --> 00:14:35,436 Speaker 2: So when war breaks out, then all of a sudden, 291 00:14:35,636 --> 00:14:38,756 Speaker 2: it is a terrible crisis. They call it the glass famine. 292 00:14:39,076 --> 00:14:42,196 Speaker 2: You've got people, you know, going to the trenches in 293 00:14:42,236 --> 00:14:47,716 Speaker 2: France and Belgium equipped with binoculars and opera glasses. 294 00:14:47,236 --> 00:14:48,676 Speaker 3: That they've had to borrow off people. 295 00:14:49,476 --> 00:14:51,956 Speaker 2: There was an appeal that was launched for people to 296 00:14:52,276 --> 00:14:55,916 Speaker 2: donate their used binoculars to troops because England didn't have 297 00:14:56,036 --> 00:14:58,796 Speaker 2: enough of them, and you know, people were getting killed 298 00:14:59,036 --> 00:15:01,396 Speaker 2: because the Germans had the better snipers. This was kind 299 00:15:01,436 --> 00:15:03,356 Speaker 2: of the First War. Really, the First World War was 300 00:15:03,356 --> 00:15:06,116 Speaker 2: the first war where you were able to fire your 301 00:15:06,116 --> 00:15:07,556 Speaker 2: weapons far further. 302 00:15:07,276 --> 00:15:08,196 Speaker 3: Than you could see. 303 00:15:09,116 --> 00:15:11,556 Speaker 2: So your ability to see and your ability to see 304 00:15:11,556 --> 00:15:13,396 Speaker 2: far was the matter of difference between life and death. 305 00:15:13,396 --> 00:15:15,756 Speaker 2: And the Germans had by far and away the upper 306 00:15:15,756 --> 00:15:18,756 Speaker 2: hand on that. And it culminated in nineteen fifteen in 307 00:15:18,836 --> 00:15:23,716 Speaker 2: this extraordinary deal where Britain actually sent spies to meet 308 00:15:23,756 --> 00:15:26,796 Speaker 2: with their German counterparts in Switzerland to do a deal 309 00:15:27,316 --> 00:15:32,036 Speaker 2: to buy binoculars off the Germans so that they could 310 00:15:32,116 --> 00:15:35,996 Speaker 2: kill them better. The most extraordinary thing is the Germans 311 00:15:35,996 --> 00:15:36,676 Speaker 2: said yes. 312 00:15:37,236 --> 00:15:39,156 Speaker 1: Like why would the Germans agree to it? 313 00:15:39,276 --> 00:15:41,876 Speaker 2: They said yes, And the reason they agreed to it, 314 00:15:41,916 --> 00:15:44,356 Speaker 2: and it comes back to materials again, is that they 315 00:15:44,356 --> 00:15:47,476 Speaker 2: were short of rubber. So Britain controlled most of the 316 00:15:47,476 --> 00:15:50,076 Speaker 2: global rubber supply, and you need a rubber obviously for 317 00:15:50,196 --> 00:15:53,436 Speaker 2: fan belts in your engines, for tires, for everything else. 318 00:15:53,836 --> 00:15:55,996 Speaker 2: And so the Germans were short of rubber, we were 319 00:15:55,996 --> 00:15:58,716 Speaker 2: short of glass. And rather than saying, okay, well this 320 00:15:58,756 --> 00:16:00,356 Speaker 2: is a bit of a pretty pass here, let's just 321 00:16:00,356 --> 00:16:02,756 Speaker 2: stop the war, they said, okay, we'll do the deal, 322 00:16:02,796 --> 00:16:04,236 Speaker 2: and then we can carry on killing each other a 323 00:16:04,276 --> 00:16:05,316 Speaker 2: little bit more effectively. 324 00:16:05,596 --> 00:16:07,876 Speaker 1: Let's make a deal, swer you could keep killing each other. Yeah, 325 00:16:07,876 --> 00:16:09,396 Speaker 1: And it happened, in fact, and. 326 00:16:09,956 --> 00:16:11,836 Speaker 2: It's a great story and it did actually happen. But 327 00:16:11,876 --> 00:16:14,556 Speaker 2: what's even more interesting is that in the following years, 328 00:16:14,596 --> 00:16:16,276 Speaker 2: and this I think a lesson for where we are now. 329 00:16:16,436 --> 00:16:20,236 Speaker 2: In the following years, England did manage to increase its 330 00:16:20,236 --> 00:16:23,996 Speaker 2: glass manufacturing massively and really fast. And it just goes 331 00:16:24,036 --> 00:16:25,996 Speaker 2: to show so by the end of the war they 332 00:16:26,036 --> 00:16:28,916 Speaker 2: were producing more more binoculars than they needed. They were 333 00:16:28,956 --> 00:16:31,756 Speaker 2: sending some of them to America, and it just goes 334 00:16:31,756 --> 00:16:33,716 Speaker 2: to show you can do it. Like if you need 335 00:16:33,716 --> 00:16:36,196 Speaker 2: to try and create an industry. It is possible to 336 00:16:36,196 --> 00:16:38,436 Speaker 2: do it, but often you need a wartime situation to 337 00:16:38,556 --> 00:16:41,196 Speaker 2: encourage you to do it. The catch is you do 338 00:16:41,356 --> 00:16:43,356 Speaker 2: need a bit of a base to start from. 339 00:16:43,436 --> 00:16:45,596 Speaker 1: Well, And it's complicated, right, I mean, we're going to 340 00:16:45,596 --> 00:16:47,276 Speaker 1: talk about this later, but we can talk about it now. 341 00:16:47,316 --> 00:16:49,876 Speaker 1: Like there is a set of trade offs, right, Like 342 00:16:50,116 --> 00:16:53,116 Speaker 1: at certain margins, you know, comparative advantage, it makes sense 343 00:16:53,156 --> 00:16:55,196 Speaker 1: to do what you're good at and let other countries 344 00:16:55,236 --> 00:16:57,636 Speaker 1: do what they're good at, and you get more material 345 00:16:57,716 --> 00:17:01,796 Speaker 1: prosperity that way, right. But the asterisk is if Germany 346 00:17:01,876 --> 00:17:03,756 Speaker 1: is making all the lenses and you go to war 347 00:17:03,796 --> 00:17:05,796 Speaker 1: with Germany, that's going to be bad, right, And so 348 00:17:05,916 --> 00:17:08,596 Speaker 1: that is a hard We shouldn't try and make everything 349 00:17:08,756 --> 00:17:12,596 Speaker 1: like that seems clear, I mean, I guess there is 350 00:17:12,596 --> 00:17:17,516 Speaker 1: a big question which is like can you abstract lessons? 351 00:17:18,516 --> 00:17:20,076 Speaker 1: What should we try and make and what should we 352 00:17:20,156 --> 00:17:22,076 Speaker 1: not try and make for me? 353 00:17:22,276 --> 00:17:23,876 Speaker 2: And I'm kind of thinking about this a lot, so 354 00:17:23,876 --> 00:17:26,476 Speaker 2: I'm kind of working on what might be in another 355 00:17:26,516 --> 00:17:30,316 Speaker 2: book on this kind of topic. Like comparative advantage, it's 356 00:17:30,356 --> 00:17:33,156 Speaker 2: not set in stone, you know, it is something you 357 00:17:33,196 --> 00:17:35,316 Speaker 2: can change and something you can influence sure. 358 00:17:35,836 --> 00:17:38,516 Speaker 1: Presumably you don't believe in autarchy. You don't think that 359 00:17:38,556 --> 00:17:40,796 Speaker 1: just because the country is a country, it should make everything. 360 00:17:41,116 --> 00:17:44,476 Speaker 1: Presumably you don't believe in like pure comparative advantage. Right. 361 00:17:44,476 --> 00:17:47,156 Speaker 1: The hard questions are at the margins, like how many 362 00:17:47,236 --> 00:17:49,516 Speaker 1: chips should we try and make in the United States? 363 00:17:49,556 --> 00:17:51,476 Speaker 1: Like that's a weird hard question. 364 00:17:51,276 --> 00:17:53,756 Speaker 2: Completely, and what are the trade offs there? And what 365 00:17:53,796 --> 00:17:55,596 Speaker 2: are you foregoing in order to do that? And I 366 00:17:55,596 --> 00:17:58,836 Speaker 2: think again, we are living through an exercise in that 367 00:17:58,956 --> 00:17:59,436 Speaker 2: right now. 368 00:17:59,996 --> 00:18:02,916 Speaker 1: Right, the pendulum is swinging back. Right, the pendulum is 369 00:18:02,956 --> 00:18:04,916 Speaker 1: swinging back toward domestic production. 370 00:18:05,236 --> 00:18:05,476 Speaker 3: Now. 371 00:18:05,596 --> 00:18:08,956 Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know, I think that's some more new 372 00:18:09,476 --> 00:18:11,996 Speaker 2: an interesting conversation than it's often made out to be. 373 00:18:12,276 --> 00:18:13,076 Speaker 3: I think that's the thing. 374 00:18:13,116 --> 00:18:15,716 Speaker 2: I think when you when you start looking at some 375 00:18:15,836 --> 00:18:19,316 Speaker 2: of the history of technologies, you kind of realize this 376 00:18:19,356 --> 00:18:21,396 Speaker 2: stuff it didn't just come down from the sky. You know. 377 00:18:21,476 --> 00:18:24,196 Speaker 2: Most of the reason that things happen in particular countries 378 00:18:24,276 --> 00:18:27,076 Speaker 2: is because of various interventions. And some of those interventions 379 00:18:27,116 --> 00:18:28,196 Speaker 2: worked and some of those didn't. 380 00:18:30,556 --> 00:18:34,716 Speaker 1: Still to come on the show, Iron and Copper, we'll 381 00:18:34,716 --> 00:18:45,316 Speaker 1: be back in a minute. Let's do Iron. 382 00:18:45,556 --> 00:18:49,316 Speaker 3: So you're navigating this in a I have a plan. 383 00:18:49,756 --> 00:18:53,276 Speaker 1: And it's going basically to plan. Yeah, tell me about 384 00:18:53,316 --> 00:18:55,916 Speaker 1: how iron production in the UK helped lead to the 385 00:18:55,956 --> 00:19:01,356 Speaker 1: Industrial Revolution. Okay, you need to break you get some water. 386 00:19:01,596 --> 00:19:03,156 Speaker 3: No, I'm just wondering where you were taking me. 387 00:19:04,956 --> 00:19:09,876 Speaker 1: I feel like that was a very straightforward turn right revolution. 388 00:19:10,076 --> 00:19:14,276 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I mean so the industrial revolution really, you know, 389 00:19:14,356 --> 00:19:16,076 Speaker 2: it's kind of a two part thing. First of all, 390 00:19:16,676 --> 00:19:19,596 Speaker 2: came the moment where in England there's it's kind of 391 00:19:19,636 --> 00:19:23,436 Speaker 2: a semi environmental story. We were taking that iron out 392 00:19:23,436 --> 00:19:27,236 Speaker 2: of the ground, or taking the iron ground, smelting it 393 00:19:27,276 --> 00:19:30,956 Speaker 2: down into iron and burning a lot of charcoal along 394 00:19:30,996 --> 00:19:33,356 Speaker 2: the way to make that happen, and we cut down 395 00:19:33,356 --> 00:19:35,676 Speaker 2: a lot of trees to make it happen. This is 396 00:19:35,716 --> 00:19:38,756 Speaker 2: around the kind of fifteen sixteenth century, one of the 397 00:19:38,756 --> 00:19:43,396 Speaker 2: first kind of early ecological panics. Everyone started to panic 398 00:19:43,436 --> 00:19:45,796 Speaker 2: that we were running out of trees and that if 399 00:19:45,796 --> 00:19:47,876 Speaker 2: we carried on making as much iron as we wanted to, 400 00:19:48,036 --> 00:19:49,836 Speaker 2: not just iron, because it was other things like making 401 00:19:49,996 --> 00:19:52,636 Speaker 2: beer and glass and salt and things like that. For 402 00:19:52,676 --> 00:19:54,276 Speaker 2: all of these things, you kind of need to burn 403 00:19:54,316 --> 00:19:59,076 Speaker 2: a lot of charcoal and create your kind of industrial process. 404 00:19:59,516 --> 00:20:00,236 Speaker 3: But people panics. 405 00:20:00,756 --> 00:20:02,396 Speaker 2: Everyone thought, we're going to run out of trees, and 406 00:20:02,436 --> 00:20:03,996 Speaker 2: as a result, the Royal Navy was going to have 407 00:20:04,036 --> 00:20:05,636 Speaker 2: to be shut down and you wouldn't have enough trees 408 00:20:05,676 --> 00:20:08,236 Speaker 2: for the masts that you need on the great ships 409 00:20:08,236 --> 00:20:10,956 Speaker 2: of the line. And what the first great kind of 410 00:20:10,996 --> 00:20:15,116 Speaker 2: innovation on this was this guy, Abraham Derby, who worked 411 00:20:15,116 --> 00:20:17,196 Speaker 2: out in the kind of the turn of the kind 412 00:20:17,196 --> 00:20:20,916 Speaker 2: of seventeenth eighteenth century, who worked out how to make 413 00:20:21,476 --> 00:20:25,316 Speaker 2: coal the fuel sauce rather than charcoal, and that meant 414 00:20:25,356 --> 00:20:27,356 Speaker 2: you didn't have to burn down trees. You could use 415 00:20:27,356 --> 00:20:29,156 Speaker 2: coal that you dug out of the ground. And it 416 00:20:29,156 --> 00:20:30,796 Speaker 2: was actually quite hard thing to do, but he managed 417 00:20:30,836 --> 00:20:34,276 Speaker 2: to do it, and that was the moment that the 418 00:20:34,316 --> 00:20:37,836 Speaker 2: fossil fuel world that we know it began. That's why 419 00:20:37,876 --> 00:20:40,836 Speaker 2: you can kind of like date the climate change story 420 00:20:40,836 --> 00:20:43,996 Speaker 2: in a way from that moment in the midlands of 421 00:20:44,036 --> 00:20:48,196 Speaker 2: England where he was like, okay, let's use coal. And essentially, 422 00:20:48,876 --> 00:20:51,036 Speaker 2: as a result of that, you're no longer bound by 423 00:20:51,076 --> 00:20:53,236 Speaker 2: the kind of organic constraints of how many trees you 424 00:20:53,276 --> 00:20:55,276 Speaker 2: can actually plant and cut down. 425 00:20:55,756 --> 00:21:01,156 Speaker 1: In particular, because England happened to have abundant, relatively accessible coal, right, 426 00:21:01,236 --> 00:21:02,276 Speaker 1: an important piece of it. 427 00:21:02,356 --> 00:21:03,716 Speaker 3: Yeah, so two things in a way. 428 00:21:03,716 --> 00:21:07,156 Speaker 2: It's this kind of this perfect coincidence, a coincidence having 429 00:21:07,196 --> 00:21:08,676 Speaker 2: quite a lot of coal in the ground. It's quite 430 00:21:08,676 --> 00:21:11,156 Speaker 2: good coal like anthracites, so it's kind of rich coal 431 00:21:11,196 --> 00:21:14,156 Speaker 2: that's good. But as well as that, we didn't have 432 00:21:14,356 --> 00:21:18,996 Speaker 2: enough trees. So France, which had far more forests than England's, 433 00:21:19,596 --> 00:21:22,636 Speaker 2: actually never really got onto this because they had enough 434 00:21:22,996 --> 00:21:25,836 Speaker 2: forest that they could turn those trees into charcoal and 435 00:21:25,876 --> 00:21:28,276 Speaker 2: then use them to carry on making steel or iron 436 00:21:28,356 --> 00:21:30,396 Speaker 2: the way they wanted to, whereas in England we just 437 00:21:30,396 --> 00:21:32,316 Speaker 2: didn't have enough trees because we just didn't have as 438 00:21:32,396 --> 00:21:35,876 Speaker 2: much land mass, and so that pushed us towards coal. 439 00:21:36,236 --> 00:21:38,916 Speaker 2: And by being pushed towards coal, then we started to 440 00:21:38,956 --> 00:21:40,516 Speaker 2: discover other things along the way. 441 00:21:40,876 --> 00:21:44,356 Speaker 1: Yes, you make the point that it was work in 442 00:21:44,396 --> 00:21:47,836 Speaker 1: the coal mines that led to the invention of the 443 00:21:47,836 --> 00:21:51,596 Speaker 1: steam engine, which is this sort of signature invention of 444 00:21:51,636 --> 00:21:54,916 Speaker 1: the industrial revolution in some ways, you know, the modern age. 445 00:21:55,236 --> 00:21:59,436 Speaker 2: Yes, steam engines were initially there not to move trains 446 00:21:59,876 --> 00:22:02,716 Speaker 2: or anything else. They were there just to pump water 447 00:22:02,796 --> 00:22:08,156 Speaker 2: out of coal mines basically, and from that then other 448 00:22:08,156 --> 00:22:11,636 Speaker 2: innovations happened. But I mean the second thing with iron 449 00:22:11,756 --> 00:22:15,116 Speaker 2: is so you can make your iron, but still really 450 00:22:15,116 --> 00:22:17,356 Speaker 2: hard to turn it into steel. And like I say, 451 00:22:17,436 --> 00:22:21,076 Speaker 2: steel is just so much better than different types of iron, 452 00:22:21,116 --> 00:22:23,236 Speaker 2: whether it's kind of cast iron or raught iron, it 453 00:22:23,316 --> 00:22:26,036 Speaker 2: is just so much stronger, it is much more resilient. 454 00:22:26,236 --> 00:22:28,556 Speaker 2: You can build big buildings out of it. And so 455 00:22:29,076 --> 00:22:33,476 Speaker 2: the real moment that everything changed and provided us with 456 00:22:33,676 --> 00:22:37,356 Speaker 2: the materials we need to make skyscrapers, for instance, was 457 00:22:37,396 --> 00:22:39,516 Speaker 2: the Bessemer process, and that was kind of later on. 458 00:22:39,596 --> 00:22:41,916 Speaker 2: That was in the kind of mid eighteen hundreds where 459 00:22:42,756 --> 00:22:44,836 Speaker 2: Henry Bessemer and there was another guy who was kind 460 00:22:44,876 --> 00:22:47,716 Speaker 2: of working on this as well, I think in the 461 00:22:47,996 --> 00:22:50,956 Speaker 2: States at the same time, worked out how to use 462 00:22:51,076 --> 00:22:53,516 Speaker 2: oxygen basically kind of to puff a lot of oxygen 463 00:22:53,836 --> 00:22:57,516 Speaker 2: into the to the mix of this molten iron, which 464 00:22:57,876 --> 00:23:01,036 Speaker 2: again is just getting rid of more of the carbon 465 00:23:01,076 --> 00:23:03,396 Speaker 2: and getting it down to just the right amount of carbon. 466 00:23:03,716 --> 00:23:07,236 Speaker 2: What was so revolutionary about Bessemer is up until then 467 00:23:07,476 --> 00:23:09,996 Speaker 2: it was just really hard to make and so just 468 00:23:10,396 --> 00:23:13,276 Speaker 2: you couldn't really make it in large quantities. After Bessemus, 469 00:23:13,276 --> 00:23:16,476 Speaker 2: suddenly you're able to make steel in massive quantities, and 470 00:23:16,516 --> 00:23:20,396 Speaker 2: so something that was incredibly expensive became cheap. 471 00:23:20,716 --> 00:23:22,836 Speaker 1: It goes from being artisanal to being. 472 00:23:22,676 --> 00:23:25,676 Speaker 2: In dust exactly. And that's like with all of these technologies. 473 00:23:25,716 --> 00:23:28,196 Speaker 2: That's the moment the world changes. It's the same, you 474 00:23:28,236 --> 00:23:30,836 Speaker 2: know with salt, it's the same with with glass. The 475 00:23:30,836 --> 00:23:33,356 Speaker 2: moment that you can make something, make a process that 476 00:23:33,476 --> 00:23:35,476 Speaker 2: enables you to turn it out at scale of there's 477 00:23:35,516 --> 00:23:38,076 Speaker 2: a great economic paper on this, can't remember the author, 478 00:23:38,316 --> 00:23:39,996 Speaker 2: but I talked about it in the book about the 479 00:23:40,036 --> 00:23:42,316 Speaker 2: price of nails and how nails used to be one 480 00:23:42,316 --> 00:23:44,716 Speaker 2: of the most expensive things. We used to spend more 481 00:23:44,796 --> 00:23:47,516 Speaker 2: as an economy on nails than we do today on computers. 482 00:23:47,996 --> 00:23:50,276 Speaker 2: And because nails are now so cheap, because you can 483 00:23:50,316 --> 00:23:52,916 Speaker 2: turn out metal and steel in such great quantities and 484 00:23:52,956 --> 00:23:55,756 Speaker 2: they're better as well, that the world has changed. If 485 00:23:55,836 --> 00:23:59,796 Speaker 2: the Titanic had steel nails of the kind that we 486 00:23:59,836 --> 00:24:02,956 Speaker 2: have today on it rather than the rivets they were 487 00:24:03,036 --> 00:24:06,116 Speaker 2: using back then, just the quality of the metal that 488 00:24:06,236 --> 00:24:08,516 Speaker 2: it probably never would have been sunk by the iceberg, 489 00:24:09,476 --> 00:24:10,516 Speaker 2: history would have been different. 490 00:24:11,396 --> 00:24:15,436 Speaker 1: A comfort to a comfort to cruisers everywhere exactly. So 491 00:24:15,476 --> 00:24:18,476 Speaker 1: you also read about how today making steel is this 492 00:24:18,676 --> 00:24:23,076 Speaker 1: incredibly large share of global carbon emissions. Just talk about that. 493 00:24:23,036 --> 00:24:23,556 Speaker 3: For a minute. 494 00:24:23,916 --> 00:24:26,996 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's the blast furnace stage. I had this 495 00:24:27,076 --> 00:24:28,956 Speaker 2: kind of striking moment where I stood in front of 496 00:24:28,956 --> 00:24:31,116 Speaker 2: a blast furnace in the UK and that one of 497 00:24:31,116 --> 00:24:34,916 Speaker 2: the people working there looked at me and said, you know, 498 00:24:34,996 --> 00:24:38,236 Speaker 2: actually the main product of this blast furnace is not iron, 499 00:24:38,836 --> 00:24:40,916 Speaker 2: it's carbon by weight. 500 00:24:41,516 --> 00:24:45,036 Speaker 3: By weight, that. 501 00:24:44,916 --> 00:24:48,916 Speaker 1: Figures the carbon is carbon dioxide gas. Just to be clear, right. 502 00:24:48,836 --> 00:24:51,356 Speaker 2: Exactly, But if you weigh it, which you could, you know, 503 00:24:51,436 --> 00:24:53,076 Speaker 2: which I think you can do in theory but maybe 504 00:24:53,116 --> 00:24:55,556 Speaker 2: in practice. But if you weigh it, there is more 505 00:24:55,596 --> 00:24:59,116 Speaker 2: carbon dioxide gas, more carbon being produced in tons than 506 00:24:59,156 --> 00:25:02,676 Speaker 2: there is the equivalent amount of iron. And that's because 507 00:25:03,876 --> 00:25:05,956 Speaker 2: in order to you know, when you chuck this stuff in, 508 00:25:06,236 --> 00:25:09,116 Speaker 2: you're chucking iron ore inside that furnace, an extraordinary chemic 509 00:25:09,196 --> 00:25:12,316 Speaker 2: or reaction is happening where the carbon, which is an 510 00:25:12,316 --> 00:25:16,236 Speaker 2: amazing molecule, is ripping the oxygen off of the iron ore. 511 00:25:16,356 --> 00:25:17,796 Speaker 1: It's sort of derusting it. 512 00:25:17,916 --> 00:25:20,116 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly, because if you see iron ore, it's 513 00:25:20,196 --> 00:25:22,916 Speaker 2: kind of it looks like rust. And you know, there 514 00:25:22,916 --> 00:25:24,956 Speaker 2: aren't that many blast furnaces left in the world. There's 515 00:25:24,956 --> 00:25:27,116 Speaker 2: only I don't know, there's like four left. In the US, 516 00:25:27,156 --> 00:25:30,756 Speaker 2: We've only got one, or there's a pair of them 517 00:25:31,196 --> 00:25:33,796 Speaker 2: left going, and they were very nearly shut down recently. 518 00:25:33,836 --> 00:25:34,236 Speaker 3: In the UK. 519 00:25:34,676 --> 00:25:36,676 Speaker 2: There's not many of these places left in the world. 520 00:25:36,876 --> 00:25:42,356 Speaker 2: But each of these sites is invariably the single biggest 521 00:25:42,356 --> 00:25:45,196 Speaker 2: producer of carbon in what whatever country it is the 522 00:25:45,276 --> 00:25:47,596 Speaker 2: single biggest one. So I was there in this place 523 00:25:47,636 --> 00:25:51,436 Speaker 2: in Wales is the single biggest producer of carbon dioxide 524 00:25:51,516 --> 00:25:53,956 Speaker 2: in our country. And now that's been shut down, and 525 00:25:53,996 --> 00:25:55,996 Speaker 2: so there's the other one over on the other side 526 00:25:55,996 --> 00:25:56,476 Speaker 2: of the country. 527 00:25:56,556 --> 00:25:57,756 Speaker 3: It'll be the same in America. 528 00:25:58,196 --> 00:26:01,876 Speaker 2: And the only way of making still in large quantities 529 00:26:02,116 --> 00:26:04,756 Speaker 2: at a relatively cheap price that makes this stuff worthwhile 530 00:26:05,196 --> 00:26:08,716 Speaker 2: is in a blast furnace, and that creates crazy amounts 531 00:26:08,756 --> 00:26:12,156 Speaker 2: of carbon dioxide. And this is the massive, big black 532 00:26:12,196 --> 00:26:13,676 Speaker 2: hole at the heart of many of the kind of 533 00:26:13,676 --> 00:26:15,676 Speaker 2: models you see about how this is how we get 534 00:26:15,676 --> 00:26:18,676 Speaker 2: to that zero. No one is quite accounted for the 535 00:26:18,676 --> 00:26:21,276 Speaker 2: fact there's a lot of people who just want to 536 00:26:21,276 --> 00:26:23,516 Speaker 2: see their living standards increase, and in order to do so, 537 00:26:23,556 --> 00:26:25,116 Speaker 2: they want to burn some iron ore and turn it 538 00:26:25,116 --> 00:26:25,756 Speaker 2: into steel. 539 00:26:26,196 --> 00:26:27,196 Speaker 3: So it's a quandary. 540 00:26:27,636 --> 00:26:30,516 Speaker 1: Did you look at people working on green steel do 541 00:26:30,596 --> 00:26:35,476 Speaker 1: you have a view on Yeah, yeah, probability of that 542 00:26:35,556 --> 00:26:38,476 Speaker 1: working at scale in an economic way. 543 00:26:38,836 --> 00:26:42,076 Speaker 2: The main truly green steel kind of method people talk 544 00:26:42,116 --> 00:26:46,076 Speaker 2: about is hydrogen dri so direct reduced iron. Using hydrogen 545 00:26:46,156 --> 00:26:48,716 Speaker 2: as your kind of adjutant, you kind of add it 546 00:26:48,796 --> 00:26:52,396 Speaker 2: to the to the mix. It's so expensive, it's so 547 00:26:52,396 --> 00:26:54,636 Speaker 2: so expensive to make iron that way. So for some 548 00:26:54,716 --> 00:26:56,836 Speaker 2: of us, you know, it's it's Sweden is big in it. 549 00:26:56,876 --> 00:26:59,156 Speaker 2: They're trying to make volvos using this stuff. You know, 550 00:26:59,396 --> 00:27:01,156 Speaker 2: for many of us who want to have green steel 551 00:27:01,356 --> 00:27:04,476 Speaker 2: and are able to afford a bit more, that's that's fine. 552 00:27:04,356 --> 00:27:06,356 Speaker 1: But that's not the one we care about, right. We 553 00:27:06,436 --> 00:27:09,596 Speaker 1: care about green steel that is pray competitive with whatever 554 00:27:09,636 --> 00:27:10,716 Speaker 1: you call it, round steel. 555 00:27:11,116 --> 00:27:15,796 Speaker 2: I fear that's a long time coming, maybe never. And 556 00:27:16,076 --> 00:27:18,356 Speaker 2: there's the electric arc furnaces. So in the US you 557 00:27:18,396 --> 00:27:21,836 Speaker 2: get eighty percent of your steel from electric arc furnaces, 558 00:27:21,876 --> 00:27:24,676 Speaker 2: which is recycling steel, which actually is really low carbon. 559 00:27:24,956 --> 00:27:27,756 Speaker 2: But again, you've got the steel. Think about it. You've 560 00:27:27,756 --> 00:27:30,396 Speaker 2: got your fifteen tons of steel, and you can keep 561 00:27:30,436 --> 00:27:33,436 Speaker 2: on recycling that, you know, not forever you need to 562 00:27:33,516 --> 00:27:35,516 Speaker 2: every so often, you need to add a bed of UI. 563 00:27:35,476 --> 00:27:36,036 Speaker 3: Into the mix. 564 00:27:36,356 --> 00:27:39,556 Speaker 2: But we're kind of okay, We've got enough steel around 565 00:27:39,636 --> 00:27:42,356 Speaker 2: us to keep on recycling it. The issue is like, 566 00:27:42,476 --> 00:27:45,596 Speaker 2: it's sub Saharan Africa, it's parts of Asia, that it's 567 00:27:45,636 --> 00:27:48,236 Speaker 2: parts of South America. They want more steel and they 568 00:27:48,236 --> 00:27:50,076 Speaker 2: want better living standards, so they want to use more 569 00:27:50,196 --> 00:27:53,756 Speaker 2: energy and why not. And I think there's this clash 570 00:27:53,796 --> 00:27:57,876 Speaker 2: at the moment between our understandable concern about climate change 571 00:27:58,196 --> 00:28:01,156 Speaker 2: and other parts of the world which just want to 572 00:28:01,236 --> 00:28:03,276 Speaker 2: have better standards of living. And in order to get 573 00:28:03,276 --> 00:28:06,316 Speaker 2: those standards of living, pretty much every process you can 574 00:28:06,356 --> 00:28:09,476 Speaker 2: do to get there is going to create more carbon. 575 00:28:10,516 --> 00:28:11,636 Speaker 1: Let's talk about copper. 576 00:28:13,636 --> 00:28:14,956 Speaker 3: Let's talk about copper. 577 00:28:15,116 --> 00:28:21,276 Speaker 1: So tell me about copper as the secret story of 578 00:28:21,316 --> 00:28:24,636 Speaker 1: the Second Industrial Revolution. Tell me about copper as the 579 00:28:24,716 --> 00:28:27,916 Speaker 1: secret story behind electrification of the world. 580 00:28:28,076 --> 00:28:30,996 Speaker 2: Okay, I think of all of the different kind of 581 00:28:31,316 --> 00:28:34,356 Speaker 2: materials in our relationships with them, maybe this is kind 582 00:28:34,356 --> 00:28:37,116 Speaker 2: of like the most intuitive because if you have a 583 00:28:37,156 --> 00:28:39,636 Speaker 2: power cut, you know you're screwed. 584 00:28:39,996 --> 00:28:42,036 Speaker 3: And copper is electricity. 585 00:28:42,676 --> 00:28:44,476 Speaker 2: I think you're conscious of that a bit more, and 586 00:28:44,476 --> 00:28:47,636 Speaker 2: you're conscious that electricity is of all the life support 587 00:28:47,676 --> 00:28:51,516 Speaker 2: systems for civilization. You know, we could probably survive without 588 00:28:51,556 --> 00:28:55,436 Speaker 2: the internet. If we don't have electricity, then we're truly scoppered. 589 00:28:55,556 --> 00:28:58,236 Speaker 1: Well, and so I mean speaking of electricity, right, part 590 00:28:58,236 --> 00:29:01,436 Speaker 1: of the reason I wanted to talk about copper. Among 591 00:29:01,476 --> 00:29:05,276 Speaker 1: the things he wrote about is we need a lot 592 00:29:05,316 --> 00:29:07,796 Speaker 1: more copper in order to electrify the world, which is 593 00:29:07,836 --> 00:29:10,356 Speaker 1: like a good thing, right, we want to electrify the world. 594 00:29:11,596 --> 00:29:13,756 Speaker 1: It's a good thing. Asterisk. Well, we got to get 595 00:29:13,796 --> 00:29:19,036 Speaker 1: a bunch more. And so there is this recent history 596 00:29:19,436 --> 00:29:21,916 Speaker 1: of wondering are we going to be able to get 597 00:29:21,956 --> 00:29:22,396 Speaker 1: more copper? 598 00:29:22,476 --> 00:29:22,556 Speaker 3: Right? 599 00:29:22,636 --> 00:29:27,036 Speaker 1: There's this famous bet from the seventies, Right, it was 600 00:29:27,036 --> 00:29:32,196 Speaker 1: in the seventies between the biologist Paul Erleck and the 601 00:29:32,236 --> 00:29:35,796 Speaker 1: economist Julian Simon. Tell me about that bet in the 602 00:29:35,836 --> 00:29:36,716 Speaker 1: history of copper. 603 00:29:36,876 --> 00:29:42,116 Speaker 2: So, Paul Olik was this incredibly charismatic scientist who, I think, 604 00:29:42,276 --> 00:29:44,276 Speaker 2: like a lot of people, particularly in the nineteen seventies, 605 00:29:44,356 --> 00:29:47,516 Speaker 2: was very worried about the rise in global population. He 606 00:29:47,556 --> 00:29:50,916 Speaker 2: wrote a very famous book called The Population Bomb, which 607 00:29:50,916 --> 00:29:53,356 Speaker 2: contained a lot of forecasts that turned out to be 608 00:29:53,516 --> 00:29:55,516 Speaker 2: kind of nonsense. 609 00:29:55,916 --> 00:29:59,316 Speaker 1: And they were very high conviction right Like in this book, 610 00:29:59,356 --> 00:30:02,236 Speaker 1: he doesn't say like we should be worried. He says, like, 611 00:30:02,476 --> 00:30:05,036 Speaker 1: we are screwed already. There are so many people that 612 00:30:05,356 --> 00:30:08,116 Speaker 1: there are going to be famines. It's a certainty because 613 00:30:08,156 --> 00:30:10,556 Speaker 1: we won't be able to grow enough food to feed everybody. 614 00:30:10,636 --> 00:30:12,236 Speaker 2: I think one of one of the predictions was that 615 00:30:12,276 --> 00:30:15,676 Speaker 2: England wouldn't exist as a country in like two thousand 616 00:30:15,916 --> 00:30:16,556 Speaker 2: or something. 617 00:30:16,316 --> 00:30:19,996 Speaker 3: Like that you showed and here we are still not almost. 618 00:30:20,316 --> 00:30:22,956 Speaker 2: But the point is, yeah, I think people who can 619 00:30:23,316 --> 00:30:28,076 Speaker 2: can say somewhat outrageous things with great conviction are compelling 620 00:30:28,436 --> 00:30:29,916 Speaker 2: and they get listened to. 621 00:30:30,276 --> 00:30:34,356 Speaker 1: Indeed, there is abundant evidence for that fact, for that claim. 622 00:30:34,796 --> 00:30:36,596 Speaker 2: But it turns out actually when you kind of peel 623 00:30:36,636 --> 00:30:39,476 Speaker 2: away stuff, I mean, doubt is not super fashionable, but 624 00:30:39,516 --> 00:30:40,876 Speaker 2: it turns out, you know, it's quite it's kind of 625 00:30:40,916 --> 00:30:44,876 Speaker 2: important within the scientific you know, the Enlightenment is kind 626 00:30:44,876 --> 00:30:48,636 Speaker 2: of about doubt. And so all Erlik was basically saying 627 00:30:48,676 --> 00:30:52,116 Speaker 2: we're going to hell in a handcock to some extent, 628 00:30:52,196 --> 00:30:57,356 Speaker 2: reprising some of Thomas Malthus's prognostications from the nineteenth century, 629 00:30:57,556 --> 00:30:59,796 Speaker 2: saying that the population was rising too fast, We're going 630 00:30:59,796 --> 00:31:02,076 Speaker 2: to run out of stuff, and there's kind of two 631 00:31:02,116 --> 00:31:03,476 Speaker 2: ways this is going to be manifested. 632 00:31:03,556 --> 00:31:05,676 Speaker 3: We're going to run out of food, but we're also. 633 00:31:05,516 --> 00:31:07,636 Speaker 2: Going to run out of the materials we need to 634 00:31:07,756 --> 00:31:11,996 Speaker 2: make stuff, and so he was very pessimistic. This guy 635 00:31:11,996 --> 00:31:14,436 Speaker 2: called Julian Simon, who was a slightly obscure economist but 636 00:31:14,796 --> 00:31:18,116 Speaker 2: you know, kind of somewhat libertarian economists, heard Alic talking. 637 00:31:18,116 --> 00:31:20,356 Speaker 3: He got absolutely infuriated that this guy was. 638 00:31:20,356 --> 00:31:21,956 Speaker 2: Getting all the attention, that he'd go on all of 639 00:31:21,996 --> 00:31:24,996 Speaker 2: the Tonight Show and so on, because he was entertaining, 640 00:31:24,996 --> 00:31:26,556 Speaker 2: you know, that was the thing he was entertaining, and 641 00:31:26,556 --> 00:31:27,236 Speaker 2: he had conviction. 642 00:31:27,836 --> 00:31:29,356 Speaker 3: Simon never went on. 643 00:31:29,316 --> 00:31:33,036 Speaker 2: The Tonight Show, but he certainly got the attention of 644 00:31:33,036 --> 00:31:35,196 Speaker 2: Paul Erlik because he basically wrote him a few letters 645 00:31:35,676 --> 00:31:38,876 Speaker 2: in journals saying this is nonsense. You're totally wrong. 646 00:31:39,636 --> 00:31:42,316 Speaker 1: So why did Simon think Erlic was wrong? 647 00:31:42,636 --> 00:31:46,636 Speaker 2: He just thought that human ingenuity has throughout history been 648 00:31:46,876 --> 00:31:50,756 Speaker 2: able to come up with solutions to our problems, and 649 00:31:50,796 --> 00:31:56,636 Speaker 2: that economics and the market are a profoundly powerful way 650 00:31:57,156 --> 00:32:01,436 Speaker 2: of resolving issues of shortage. And he thought that listen, 651 00:32:01,596 --> 00:32:04,916 Speaker 2: if we were to run short of copper, we'd come 652 00:32:04,996 --> 00:32:07,956 Speaker 2: up with some other material that would enable us to 653 00:32:08,036 --> 00:32:12,356 Speaker 2: create electrical network. And so as a result of that, 654 00:32:12,396 --> 00:32:14,916 Speaker 2: he just thought there was something instinctively wrong about what 655 00:32:14,996 --> 00:32:17,596 Speaker 2: Erleck was saying. But I think there's something instinctively within 656 00:32:17,756 --> 00:32:20,956 Speaker 2: humanity because we know that the planet is finite, it's there, 657 00:32:20,996 --> 00:32:23,796 Speaker 2: we can see it. That makes maybe the Erlick view 658 00:32:23,876 --> 00:32:24,636 Speaker 2: quite compelling. 659 00:32:24,796 --> 00:32:28,396 Speaker 1: I think zero some thinking is intuitive and positive some 660 00:32:28,556 --> 00:32:32,076 Speaker 1: thinking is not. Yeah, And I think in this debate, 661 00:32:32,556 --> 00:32:36,516 Speaker 1: Erlic is very much zero side totally, and Simon is positive. 662 00:32:36,716 --> 00:32:37,116 Speaker 3: Yeah. 663 00:32:37,156 --> 00:32:40,676 Speaker 1: So Simon challenges publicly challenges I believe in science and 664 00:32:40,756 --> 00:32:44,636 Speaker 1: the journal science. Right, he challenges Eric to a bet. 665 00:32:44,716 --> 00:32:45,476 Speaker 1: What is the bet? 666 00:32:45,916 --> 00:32:48,116 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's worth saying Erle Erlick was by far 667 00:32:48,156 --> 00:32:51,516 Speaker 2: and away the more prominent person. Erlik is famous and 668 00:32:51,796 --> 00:32:54,396 Speaker 2: Simon No one's heard of Simon, and so he punches up. 669 00:32:55,116 --> 00:32:57,596 Speaker 2: Erlik takes takes notice of him and says, okay, right, 670 00:32:57,636 --> 00:32:59,956 Speaker 2: we're going to do a bet. Actually I can't I 671 00:32:59,956 --> 00:33:02,196 Speaker 2: can't remember whether Simon's just bet. I think maybe Simon 672 00:33:02,236 --> 00:33:04,676 Speaker 2: suggested the bet, and Eerlic says, okay, you're on. And 673 00:33:04,836 --> 00:33:07,116 Speaker 2: the bet is basically, we're going to pick a date 674 00:33:07,156 --> 00:33:09,796 Speaker 2: in the future, and we'll look at the price of 675 00:33:09,836 --> 00:33:13,556 Speaker 2: all of these a selection of different commodities. One of 676 00:33:13,596 --> 00:33:18,156 Speaker 2: those materials was copper, and to work out whether at 677 00:33:18,196 --> 00:33:20,796 Speaker 2: the end of a decade or so, whether they went 678 00:33:20,876 --> 00:33:23,316 Speaker 2: up in price or down in price. And if their 679 00:33:23,316 --> 00:33:25,836 Speaker 2: price has gone up, then it's a sign that there 680 00:33:25,916 --> 00:33:30,076 Speaker 2: is scarcity and the people were potentially running out. And 681 00:33:30,116 --> 00:33:32,796 Speaker 2: if it's gone down, then the opposite. If it gets 682 00:33:32,796 --> 00:33:34,996 Speaker 2: the price goes up, Erlick wins the bet. If the 683 00:33:34,996 --> 00:33:37,796 Speaker 2: price goes down or stays the same, Simon wins the bet. 684 00:33:38,156 --> 00:33:42,996 Speaker 2: And so the years pass and lo and behold Erlck loses. 685 00:33:43,076 --> 00:33:46,396 Speaker 2: Simon wins. The prices don't go through the roof of 686 00:33:46,436 --> 00:33:46,996 Speaker 2: this stuff. 687 00:33:47,516 --> 00:33:48,716 Speaker 1: What does it mean that he won? 688 00:33:49,316 --> 00:33:53,116 Speaker 2: I think, in hindsight, a powerful reminder that the world 689 00:33:53,236 --> 00:33:56,556 Speaker 2: is not zero sum, and that we are really good 690 00:33:57,156 --> 00:34:00,676 Speaker 2: at devising solutions for things that seem like they are 691 00:34:00,796 --> 00:34:05,316 Speaker 2: runaway problems. And that also, I think there's another deeper 692 00:34:05,356 --> 00:34:07,916 Speaker 2: thing which I don't think Simon ever, he wasn't thinking 693 00:34:07,916 --> 00:34:10,276 Speaker 2: as a geologist, and I'm not, but I've come to 694 00:34:10,316 --> 00:34:14,316 Speaker 2: think a bit more like a geologist. The world of 695 00:34:14,516 --> 00:34:17,676 Speaker 2: minerals is far more plentiful than we might think. Even 696 00:34:17,676 --> 00:34:19,356 Speaker 2: though we're down to the kind of you know, the 697 00:34:19,436 --> 00:34:22,236 Speaker 2: junk stuff, there is still a lot of it out there. 698 00:34:22,476 --> 00:34:27,636 Speaker 2: And the human ability to devise ever more ingenious ways 699 00:34:27,956 --> 00:34:31,236 Speaker 2: of squeezing let's say copper, because we're talking about it, 700 00:34:31,316 --> 00:34:34,316 Speaker 2: copper out of rock that might previously have been seen 701 00:34:34,556 --> 00:34:38,236 Speaker 2: as junk rock. That ability is amazing, and to me 702 00:34:38,396 --> 00:34:41,996 Speaker 2: it's one of the great triumphs, totally unsung triumphs of 703 00:34:42,076 --> 00:34:45,836 Speaker 2: the last kind of fifty years. Is that far from 704 00:34:45,836 --> 00:34:48,196 Speaker 2: actually running out of copper? Because copper, of all of 705 00:34:48,196 --> 00:34:51,116 Speaker 2: the materials that I look at and that we use 706 00:34:51,116 --> 00:34:54,356 Speaker 2: on an industrial scale, copper is perhaps the most scarce. 707 00:34:54,636 --> 00:34:56,876 Speaker 2: You know, there's lots of iron in the Earth's cross, 708 00:34:56,916 --> 00:34:59,596 Speaker 2: there's lots of you know, alumino, which we use to 709 00:34:59,636 --> 00:35:03,556 Speaker 2: make aluminium. There's loads of these things. There's not that 710 00:35:03,636 --> 00:35:08,236 Speaker 2: much copper. And yet over that period we have produced 711 00:35:08,276 --> 00:35:10,676 Speaker 2: an incredible amount of copper. You know, I felt tall 712 00:35:10,756 --> 00:35:12,796 Speaker 2: about this because, on the one hand, this period in 713 00:35:12,796 --> 00:35:14,756 Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies, you know, when the bet was kind 714 00:35:14,756 --> 00:35:18,076 Speaker 2: of happening, was this dawning moment, this dawning realization, you know, 715 00:35:18,156 --> 00:35:20,116 Speaker 2: Earth Day and all of these things were happening. 716 00:35:20,356 --> 00:35:23,516 Speaker 1: And real legislation, right the key environmental legislation in the 717 00:35:23,596 --> 00:35:25,196 Speaker 1: United States was passed around this time. 718 00:35:25,356 --> 00:35:26,676 Speaker 3: Yeah, like all the EPA stuff. 719 00:35:26,756 --> 00:35:28,556 Speaker 2: So there are many kind of positives that have come 720 00:35:28,596 --> 00:35:30,916 Speaker 2: out of this, and our water courses much better, the 721 00:35:30,956 --> 00:35:33,476 Speaker 2: air quality is so much better in most of our 722 00:35:33,476 --> 00:35:36,556 Speaker 2: countries as a result of I think that dawning consciousness 723 00:35:36,636 --> 00:35:39,676 Speaker 2: that we needed to do something. But at the same time, 724 00:35:39,716 --> 00:35:42,556 Speaker 2: because there was so much catastrophism about it, I think 725 00:35:42,556 --> 00:35:44,636 Speaker 2: a lot of people got kind of overly freaked out 726 00:35:44,676 --> 00:35:47,556 Speaker 2: by it. And there were certain things like copper that 727 00:35:47,596 --> 00:35:50,876 Speaker 2: we never came close to running out of. And like 728 00:35:51,276 --> 00:35:54,396 Speaker 2: I say, one of the greatest unsung achievements is we 729 00:35:54,516 --> 00:35:56,636 Speaker 2: have not run out of this stuff. Far from running out, 730 00:35:56,796 --> 00:35:59,156 Speaker 2: we have got more than ever before. Yes, there are 731 00:35:59,156 --> 00:36:02,276 Speaker 2: big environmental questions about how much of the ground we're 732 00:36:02,396 --> 00:36:05,876 Speaker 2: churning up to get it. But China was able to urbanize. 733 00:36:05,956 --> 00:36:07,956 Speaker 2: China wouldn't have been able to urbanize. You wouldn't have 734 00:36:07,996 --> 00:36:11,076 Speaker 2: been able to have as many, you know, eight billion people, 735 00:36:11,236 --> 00:36:13,196 Speaker 2: you know, getting toward nine billion people in the world 736 00:36:13,316 --> 00:36:16,356 Speaker 2: were it not for the discovery of clever ways to 737 00:36:16,436 --> 00:36:17,676 Speaker 2: get copper out of the ground. 738 00:36:17,836 --> 00:36:21,876 Speaker 1: So there is the environmental question right of we've dug 739 00:36:21,876 --> 00:36:23,716 Speaker 1: giant holes in the ground to get copper out. And 740 00:36:23,756 --> 00:36:28,876 Speaker 1: there is a particularly i don't know, fraught environmental question now, 741 00:36:28,956 --> 00:36:31,076 Speaker 1: which is in order to do the energy transition, in 742 00:36:31,156 --> 00:36:34,756 Speaker 1: order to shift from fossil fuel to electrification, which is 743 00:36:34,836 --> 00:36:37,516 Speaker 1: good and I think good on net, we need a 744 00:36:37,516 --> 00:36:40,676 Speaker 1: lot more copper. Like you have gone and looked at 745 00:36:40,716 --> 00:36:44,476 Speaker 1: giant copper minds, seen the cost of it, Like how 746 00:36:44,516 --> 00:36:47,316 Speaker 1: do you think about copper and the energy transition? 747 00:36:48,316 --> 00:36:52,276 Speaker 2: When standing on the lip of one of these big 748 00:36:52,316 --> 00:36:55,276 Speaker 2: mines in Chile, I went to this mine called Chicki Kamata, 749 00:36:55,796 --> 00:36:58,916 Speaker 2: which is this This is one that's been going since, 750 00:36:59,476 --> 00:37:01,796 Speaker 2: you know, for one hundred and twenty years or so. 751 00:37:02,316 --> 00:37:04,596 Speaker 2: This is like one of the minds, the big minds 752 00:37:04,756 --> 00:37:09,556 Speaker 2: that we got the copper for the early Edison electrical age, 753 00:37:09,676 --> 00:37:12,676 Speaker 2: and we're still getting copper out of it. Is a 754 00:37:12,796 --> 00:37:16,316 Speaker 2: hole that is the biggest man made hole on the 755 00:37:16,316 --> 00:37:19,316 Speaker 2: planet in terms of it's just the amount of earth 756 00:37:19,316 --> 00:37:21,716 Speaker 2: that's been displaced from it. You stand on the edge, 757 00:37:21,916 --> 00:37:24,196 Speaker 2: you look down, it's like looking at the Grand Canyon. 758 00:37:24,276 --> 00:37:26,276 Speaker 2: You know, it's one of those moments of like whoa, 759 00:37:26,356 --> 00:37:29,876 Speaker 2: because this is this is so deep, and yet we 760 00:37:29,916 --> 00:37:32,116 Speaker 2: made that. We made that hole in order to get 761 00:37:32,116 --> 00:37:35,716 Speaker 2: the copper out. You need, in order to fulfill all 762 00:37:35,756 --> 00:37:38,236 Speaker 2: the promises that we have made for the energy transition, 763 00:37:38,676 --> 00:37:41,716 Speaker 2: you need another three or four of these mines to 764 00:37:41,756 --> 00:37:46,676 Speaker 2: be built every year between now and twenty fifty, and 765 00:37:47,396 --> 00:37:51,276 Speaker 2: right now we're basically not really building any And on 766 00:37:51,316 --> 00:37:53,876 Speaker 2: the contrary, you know, there are minds that the famous 767 00:37:53,876 --> 00:37:56,756 Speaker 2: example is a mine in Panama, copper mine which has 768 00:37:56,756 --> 00:37:59,356 Speaker 2: basically been shut down because the government is you know, 769 00:37:59,636 --> 00:38:02,396 Speaker 2: concerned about the environmental impacts and the impacts on the 770 00:38:02,436 --> 00:38:03,156 Speaker 2: local community. 771 00:38:03,436 --> 00:38:05,756 Speaker 1: Which is reasonable, right, Like, that's why this is such 772 00:38:05,796 --> 00:38:08,076 Speaker 1: a hard It's ablutely reasonable. I don't want to live 773 00:38:08,076 --> 00:38:08,956 Speaker 1: next to a copper mind. 774 00:38:09,396 --> 00:38:10,876 Speaker 2: And to be honest with you, what happens. I'll tell 775 00:38:10,876 --> 00:38:12,676 Speaker 2: you what happens if you live next to a copper mine. 776 00:38:12,836 --> 00:38:14,956 Speaker 2: Eventually the copper mine gets so big that your house 777 00:38:14,956 --> 00:38:17,316 Speaker 2: gets covered in the waste rock for the copper mine, 778 00:38:17,436 --> 00:38:19,876 Speaker 2: and you know, you're you're covered and you're covered in rock. 779 00:38:19,916 --> 00:38:21,836 Speaker 2: Because that's what happens at this place. There was a 780 00:38:22,036 --> 00:38:23,556 Speaker 2: there was a town next door. It was like a 781 00:38:23,556 --> 00:38:26,556 Speaker 2: pretty advanced town. It had the most advanced hospital in 782 00:38:26,596 --> 00:38:32,396 Speaker 2: Latin America. It is now abandoned and half covered in 783 00:38:32,516 --> 00:38:34,396 Speaker 2: the waste rock from the mine. They had to they 784 00:38:34,396 --> 00:38:37,316 Speaker 2: had to move everyone out because the mine just got 785 00:38:37,356 --> 00:38:40,396 Speaker 2: so big. But this is the point that there aren't 786 00:38:40,396 --> 00:38:43,276 Speaker 2: many of these places, but where there are, they are big, 787 00:38:43,516 --> 00:38:47,636 Speaker 2: and there's environmental implications and all around that particular mine 788 00:38:47,676 --> 00:38:50,396 Speaker 2: in Chile, the copper mine. You know, you've got more 789 00:38:50,476 --> 00:38:52,636 Speaker 2: arsenic in the air than in most other places, partly 790 00:38:52,676 --> 00:38:55,516 Speaker 2: just because there's arsenic in the earth and it's being displaced, 791 00:38:55,556 --> 00:38:59,156 Speaker 2: and the particular the nature of that Andean soil is 792 00:38:59,156 --> 00:39:01,036 Speaker 2: is it's got more arsenic than you would normally find. 793 00:39:01,196 --> 00:39:04,236 Speaker 2: The tailings down Okay, so where the toxic waste is put. 794 00:39:04,596 --> 00:39:06,596 Speaker 2: And bear in mind they used to just chuck this 795 00:39:06,676 --> 00:39:08,756 Speaker 2: stuff into the rivers and into the sea. Now it 796 00:39:08,796 --> 00:39:11,276 Speaker 2: goes in this damn system. So you've got all of 797 00:39:11,316 --> 00:39:14,516 Speaker 2: this quite nasty stuff in a damn system. It's basically 798 00:39:14,556 --> 00:39:16,956 Speaker 2: a big block of earth, and I drove alongside it 799 00:39:16,996 --> 00:39:20,556 Speaker 2: with damn walls all around it. This total size of 800 00:39:20,596 --> 00:39:23,516 Speaker 2: the tailings down at this single mind chew Kikumata in 801 00:39:23,596 --> 00:39:27,796 Speaker 2: Chile is bigger than Manhattan just for one mind, and 802 00:39:27,876 --> 00:39:31,436 Speaker 2: so the amount of impact that these places have is enormous. 803 00:39:31,436 --> 00:39:34,196 Speaker 2: But now a lot of these places, including Chile, are 804 00:39:34,196 --> 00:39:36,036 Speaker 2: starting to ask, well, hang on, is this actually what 805 00:39:36,116 --> 00:39:36,476 Speaker 2: we want? 806 00:39:36,556 --> 00:39:38,476 Speaker 3: And you've got a lot of governments. 807 00:39:38,196 --> 00:39:41,276 Speaker 2: Like I say, including in Santiago, who are saying, okay, now, 808 00:39:41,316 --> 00:39:42,956 Speaker 2: actually we want to shut down some of these places 809 00:39:42,956 --> 00:39:46,596 Speaker 2: because local communities have been affected by pollution and it's unacceptable. 810 00:39:46,836 --> 00:39:49,596 Speaker 2: So for me, one of the biggest challenges for the 811 00:39:49,716 --> 00:39:53,636 Speaker 2: energy transition it's not necessarily the technology, it's not necessarily 812 00:39:53,676 --> 00:39:55,916 Speaker 2: the kind of enthusiasm that it's a lot of politics 813 00:39:55,956 --> 00:39:58,876 Speaker 2: going on, But actually it's are we actually going to 814 00:40:00,116 --> 00:40:02,876 Speaker 2: manage to persuade people who live where all of these 815 00:40:02,916 --> 00:40:05,956 Speaker 2: resources are that it is right to get this stuff 816 00:40:05,956 --> 00:40:08,716 Speaker 2: out of the ground. It's it's human willingness rather than 817 00:40:09,196 --> 00:40:11,596 Speaker 2: techle logical or geological constraints. 818 00:40:14,716 --> 00:40:16,996 Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute with the lightning round, 819 00:40:17,356 --> 00:40:28,516 Speaker 1: of course, m m okay, we're going to finish with 820 00:40:28,556 --> 00:40:31,716 Speaker 1: the lightning round. If you were to add a seventh 821 00:40:31,796 --> 00:40:35,316 Speaker 1: material to the book, what would it be? 822 00:40:35,676 --> 00:40:38,116 Speaker 2: I was actually going to have a seventh material, which 823 00:40:38,156 --> 00:40:41,356 Speaker 2: was going to be wood. I would wood is great, 824 00:40:41,796 --> 00:40:45,916 Speaker 2: like we can use word as an amazing construction material 825 00:40:45,956 --> 00:40:50,636 Speaker 2: these days. Obviously there's all the history about woods, you know, fire, humanity, fire, charcoal, 826 00:40:51,076 --> 00:40:51,756 Speaker 2: all that stuff. 827 00:40:51,916 --> 00:40:55,276 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the first energy transition arguably was fine, right. 828 00:40:55,196 --> 00:40:57,276 Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, the first and the greatest in a way. 829 00:40:57,636 --> 00:40:58,036 Speaker 1: Yeah. 830 00:40:58,116 --> 00:40:59,436 Speaker 3: Yeah, So wood, it was gonna be. 831 00:40:59,356 --> 00:41:02,316 Speaker 2: Wood, and wood is great because also, like I say, 832 00:41:02,396 --> 00:41:04,276 Speaker 2: you can you can build skyscrapers out of wood. You 833 00:41:04,276 --> 00:41:05,996 Speaker 2: still need a bit of steal, to be honest with you, 834 00:41:05,996 --> 00:41:07,956 Speaker 2: but you can build skyscrapers out of wood. You can 835 00:41:08,036 --> 00:41:10,996 Speaker 2: use word as a kind of ingreen for making chemicals 836 00:41:10,996 --> 00:41:14,076 Speaker 2: as well. So it was going to be words. But 837 00:41:14,596 --> 00:41:17,356 Speaker 2: the book you've read the book, it's long. It's too 838 00:41:17,396 --> 00:41:19,796 Speaker 2: long already, And so it was going to be seven. 839 00:41:19,996 --> 00:41:21,356 Speaker 2: Like seven is a great number, isn't it. 840 00:41:21,396 --> 00:41:24,156 Speaker 1: Seven's a better number than six. Let's be honest. You 841 00:41:24,196 --> 00:41:25,396 Speaker 1: could have gone down to five. 842 00:41:25,716 --> 00:41:27,396 Speaker 3: It's the fault of like glass. 843 00:41:27,516 --> 00:41:29,876 Speaker 2: Glass was too interesting, and you know, so I just 844 00:41:29,956 --> 00:41:32,436 Speaker 2: I overdid it, basically, I overcooked it. 845 00:41:32,516 --> 00:41:35,196 Speaker 1: Well done. What's your least favorite material? 846 00:41:35,796 --> 00:41:37,036 Speaker 3: Do you mean in the book or do you mean 847 00:41:37,076 --> 00:41:41,356 Speaker 3: and no, in the world. Oh my god. 848 00:41:41,796 --> 00:41:45,916 Speaker 2: I mean, like, I'm not an enormous fan of polyester. 849 00:41:46,676 --> 00:41:48,916 Speaker 1: I don't know if you have any like running shirts 850 00:41:48,996 --> 00:41:52,036 Speaker 1: or workout shirts. Like, they don't call them polyester, they 851 00:41:52,076 --> 00:41:55,356 Speaker 1: call them whatever, Capeline or whatever brand name, but they're 852 00:41:55,396 --> 00:41:57,716 Speaker 1: basically polyester. Polyester is amazing. 853 00:41:57,796 --> 00:42:00,436 Speaker 3: Now, that's the thing. That's why I have states saying this. 854 00:42:00,676 --> 00:42:02,956 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean plastic, polyester is plastic. 855 00:42:03,236 --> 00:42:05,156 Speaker 3: Blast is plastic. It's a petrochemical. 856 00:42:05,396 --> 00:42:07,076 Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a petrochemical, and. 857 00:42:07,076 --> 00:42:10,236 Speaker 2: I think we, the English, we invented it. We basically 858 00:42:10,316 --> 00:42:12,556 Speaker 2: we invented a lot of the bad stuff we invented, 859 00:42:12,836 --> 00:42:15,956 Speaker 2: you know, the using fossil fuels. But that's also kind 860 00:42:15,996 --> 00:42:17,596 Speaker 2: of there's been many benefits from that. 861 00:42:17,956 --> 00:42:21,996 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Industrial Revolution. I'm unbalance grateful for the Industrial Revolution. 862 00:42:22,036 --> 00:42:24,276 Speaker 1: It's a complicated legacy, but I appreciate it. 863 00:42:24,516 --> 00:42:29,356 Speaker 2: Yeah, but we invented polyethylene, which is like the plastic 864 00:42:29,396 --> 00:42:31,076 Speaker 2: that you make plastic bags out of. Again, I don't 865 00:42:31,076 --> 00:42:32,636 Speaker 2: think we should be ashamed of it in the slightest, 866 00:42:32,636 --> 00:42:34,356 Speaker 2: but we are. You go to the place where they 867 00:42:34,356 --> 00:42:38,356 Speaker 2: invented polyethylene and there's a little plaque they've kind of 868 00:42:38,436 --> 00:42:40,036 Speaker 2: hidden on a building. 869 00:42:40,516 --> 00:42:43,156 Speaker 1: I mean plastic bags I feel more ambivalent about than 870 00:42:43,156 --> 00:42:44,156 Speaker 1: the Industrial Revolution. 871 00:42:44,276 --> 00:42:48,076 Speaker 2: Weirdly, polyethylene is not just plastic bags. It's basically, you know, 872 00:42:48,116 --> 00:42:49,956 Speaker 2: it's kind of everything. It's also you can make like 873 00:42:50,036 --> 00:42:52,636 Speaker 2: bulletproof fests out of it. You can make it is 874 00:42:52,636 --> 00:42:54,636 Speaker 2: the most adaptable of all of the plastics. It is 875 00:42:54,636 --> 00:42:58,716 Speaker 2: by far and away the most the biggest. I'm used 876 00:42:58,716 --> 00:43:01,516 Speaker 2: to kind of shitty old polyester, like you know, the 877 00:43:01,596 --> 00:43:04,436 Speaker 2: old kind of shirts like yeah, that make you sweat, 878 00:43:04,676 --> 00:43:08,436 Speaker 2: that make you sweat. These days, I think, particularly the Chinese, 879 00:43:08,476 --> 00:43:10,756 Speaker 2: this is kind of a thing. The Chinese have become 880 00:43:10,876 --> 00:43:14,116 Speaker 2: incredible at making really good fabrics out of polyester. And 881 00:43:14,156 --> 00:43:17,836 Speaker 2: so actually the polyester, like you saying of twenty twenty five, 882 00:43:17,996 --> 00:43:20,196 Speaker 2: is such a different thing, and that's I think largely 883 00:43:20,236 --> 00:43:23,116 Speaker 2: thanks to the Chinese being really clever about weaving it, 884 00:43:23,156 --> 00:43:26,636 Speaker 2: and also just particular types of glens. So I would 885 00:43:26,676 --> 00:43:29,756 Speaker 2: say polyesta, but then then I'd go back on myself, 886 00:43:29,836 --> 00:43:30,596 Speaker 2: just like I am now. 887 00:43:36,836 --> 00:43:40,076 Speaker 1: Ed Conway is the author of Material World, the six 888 00:43:40,196 --> 00:43:44,356 Speaker 1: raw materials that shape of modern civilization. Please email us 889 00:43:44,436 --> 00:43:47,836 Speaker 1: at problem at Pushkin dot FM. We are always looking 890 00:43:47,876 --> 00:43:51,916 Speaker 1: for new guests for the show. Today's show was produced 891 00:43:51,916 --> 00:43:55,356 Speaker 1: by Trinamnino and Gabriel Hunter Chang, who was edited by 892 00:43:55,356 --> 00:43:59,756 Speaker 1: Alexander Garriton and engineered by Sarah Bruguier. I'm Jacob Goldstein 893 00:43:59,796 --> 00:44:01,876 Speaker 1: and we'll be back next week with another episode of 894 00:44:01,876 --> 00:44:02,436 Speaker 1: What's Your Pop