1
00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe for this Friday, the fifth

2
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: of May in London. Coming up today.

3
00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,799
Speaker 2: Too big to fail but not too big to pay.

4
00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 2: The FDIIC gets set to tap large lenders.

5
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,639
Speaker 1: Headed in one direction only. US regional bank shares continue

6
00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:17,280
Speaker 1: to plunge.

7
00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 2: It could have been worse. Early local election results hit

8
00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,960
Speaker 2: the Conservatives but fail to deliver a knockout blow.

9
00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,520
Speaker 3: The boees guilty plea bargain, the law shows up to

10
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,680
Speaker 3: the AI debate and what's Russian to see you in court?

11
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,280
Speaker 3: Those are the stories we're looking at in today's papers.

12
00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,040
Speaker 3: I'm James Walcock Plus pressing ahead.

13
00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,440
Speaker 1: No government for fifteen months, but businesses in Northern Ireland

14
00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,040
Speaker 1: tell us they're moving forward with growth plans.

15
00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,600
Speaker 4: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. The business

16
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 4: news you need to start your day in just one

17
00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,400
Speaker 4: fifteen minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business App

18
00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,680
Speaker 4: and everywhere you get your podcasts.

19
00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,120
Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Stephen Carroll and.

20
00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hetger. Here are the stories that we're following today.

21
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 1: The US is poised to target large banks to replenish

22
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,920
Speaker 1: the government's deposit insurance bank stop the Bloomberg understands that

23
00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,360
Speaker 1: smaller lenders will be exempt from the plans to top

24
00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,400
Speaker 1: up the FDIC fund, which has been depleted after a

25
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,480
Speaker 1: number of bank failures. The revelation comes as the agency

26
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:26,360
Speaker 1: ways increasing business deposit insurance by Donald's as a Republican

27
00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,560
Speaker 1: member of the House Committee on Financial Services. He told Bloomberg,

28
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 1: it's a mistake.

29
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:35,959
Speaker 5: Oh, I don't support modifications to FDIC insurance. The issue

30
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 5: we have here is that some of the regional banks

31
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:43,280
Speaker 5: were law treasuries because they didn't really understand or realize

32
00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,479
Speaker 5: that what was going to happen with interest rate moves.

33
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,880
Speaker 1: Representative Donald spoke to Bloomberg after the FDIC announced it

34
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 1: favors a sweeping overhaul of deposit insurance in the wake

35
00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:54,280
Speaker 1: of recent events.

36
00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,680
Speaker 2: The debate around deposit insurance comes as US regional banks

37
00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,840
Speaker 2: continue to see massive share price moves. Pac West, First Horizon,

38
00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 2: and Western Alliance led a renewed slide as concerns over

39
00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,800
Speaker 2: the sector grow. But Daniel Tabash, the founder of the

40
00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 2: Tamash Report, says that it's not just the share prices

41
00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:14,160
Speaker 2: that we should be worried about.

42
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,920
Speaker 6: The market is considering how this feeds into credit risk,

43
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,960
Speaker 6: and when banks have these kind of stresses on the

44
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,880
Speaker 6: liquidity side, they tend to want to pull in loans,

45
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 6: not to lend as much, and that actually could lead

46
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:30,959
Speaker 6: to more defaults.

47
00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 2: Ironically, Daniel Tabash spoke to US as evidence emerged that

48
00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,520
Speaker 2: betting against US regional bank stocks has proved lucrative for

49
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 2: short sellers. Data from S three Partners shows that they're

50
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 2: now sitting on seven billion dollars in paper profits for

51
00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:47,440
Speaker 2: the year.

52
00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,360
Speaker 1: iPhone sales rebounded to their best March quarter on records,

53
00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,280
Speaker 1: helping the world's most valuable company top earnings estimates. Apple

54
00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,720
Speaker 1: CEO Tim Cook singled out India in the earnings call,

55
00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,959
Speaker 1: underscoring its potential as a growth engine for the tech giant.

56
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:07,520
Speaker 7: India is an incredibly exciting market. It's a major focus

57
00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,640
Speaker 7: for US. I was just there in the dynamism in

58
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,760
Speaker 7: the market. The vibrancy is unbelievable. There are a lot

59
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,760
Speaker 7: of people coming into the middle class, and I really

60
00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,080
Speaker 7: feel that India is at a tipping point.

61
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,560
Speaker 1: Tim Cook was speaking to analysts after Apple announced close

62
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,080
Speaker 1: to ninety five billion dollars in total sales, suggesting the

63
00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 1: firm is beginning to recover from an industry wide slump.

64
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,000
Speaker 2: Now local election results are starting to trickle in from

65
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 2: across the UK and the direction of travel is clip.

66
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 2: The Conservatives have lost more than one hundred councilors, whilst

67
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,680
Speaker 2: Labor has added more than seventy. The Shadow Leader of

68
00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,440
Speaker 2: the House of Commons, Tangam Debonair, is optimistic about the

69
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:50,400
Speaker 2: party's performance.

70
00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,360
Speaker 3: Twenty nineteen was a low watermark for the Tories. It

71
00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,960
Speaker 3: wasn't a great year for Labor either, and I think

72
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 3: the turnaround that we've seen under kir Stalmer's leadership has

73
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:00,400
Speaker 3: been absolutely outside standing.

74
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:06,000
Speaker 2: Tankam Debonair's positivity contrasts with the pessimism of the Conservatives,

75
00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,080
Speaker 2: who have been setting expectations low ahead of the results.

76
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,480
Speaker 2: The full picture on how all the parties have performed

77
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,520
Speaker 2: is unlikely to become clear until at least later in

78
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:14,880
Speaker 2: the day.

79
00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,159
Speaker 1: It's been a year since the last election to Northern

80
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,760
Speaker 1: Ireland's Assembly, but there's still no sign of a government

81
00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 1: being formed there. Businesses in the region say they're pressing

82
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,239
Speaker 1: on with expansion plans regardless. Lee Mayer leads City Groups

83
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:27,680
Speaker 1: of Operations in Belfast.

84
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 8: Over the last five years, we probably haven't had an

85
00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,880
Speaker 8: executive for more than a year and so we've had

86
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,799
Speaker 8: to move forward and I think what that is doing

87
00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,640
Speaker 8: is it's actually building the confidence of the business community

88
00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 8: to make effective decisions and grow the business, their businesses

89
00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 8: and the economy irrespective of whether they've got support from

90
00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,080
Speaker 8: the government. We would like that to change. We would

91
00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 8: like to have a sitty in the executive We are

92
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 8: very engaged when they are sitting, but it is not

93
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,839
Speaker 8: a constraint for our business growth.

94
00:04:57,440 --> 00:04:59,440
Speaker 1: Trusly mayor from City, which is one of the biggest

95
00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,679
Speaker 1: private sect to employers in Northern Ireland. President Joe Biden

96
00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,240
Speaker 1: has promised massive US investment for the region if the

97
00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,120
Speaker 1: parties can agree to form a parasharing government.

98
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,320
Speaker 2: One of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's economic advisers says that it

99
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,640
Speaker 2: will take more than just tax cuts to create growth,

100
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,679
Speaker 2: and a Valero, senior policy fellow out the London School

101
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,359
Speaker 2: of Economics says the money that would be spent on

102
00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 2: tax cuts could be better spent on other growth boosting measures.

103
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 9: If it was as easy as cutting taxes, then we

104
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 9: would have seen that during the years that we had

105
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 9: particularly low corporate tax for example, as the main rate

106
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,479
Speaker 9: of corporate taxes nineteen percent, perhaps we would have seen

107
00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,600
Speaker 9: slightly high business investment. I think the tax environment matters,

108
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 9: but there are many other things we need to be

109
00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,360
Speaker 9: doing for improving growth, and also within the tax environment,

110
00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,720
Speaker 9: we can be thinking about incentives for investment rather than

111
00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 9: the headline rate.

112
00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,719
Speaker 2: Valero, who has joined the Chancellor's Economic Advisory Council, also

113
00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:57,120
Speaker 2: underlined the importance of encouraging business investment and reforming pensions regulations.

114
00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:02,279
Speaker 2: The remarks underscore the competing demands that Hunt faces if

115
00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,880
Speaker 2: he finds money for giveaways ahead of the next general election,

116
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,240
Speaker 2: which is expected in twenty twenty four.

117
00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,560
Speaker 1: So those are our top stories on the program this morning. Interesting,

118
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,360
Speaker 1: we've been talking to a lot of hearing from a

119
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,279
Speaker 1: lot of bank CEOs over the past week or so

120
00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 1: about their results for the most recent quarter. We've been

121
00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,800
Speaker 1: asking questions about deposit outflows here in the UK, and

122
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,000
Speaker 1: we spoke to the CFO Virgin Money yesterday as well,

123
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,400
Speaker 1: and they have largely been telling us there hasn't been

124
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,080
Speaker 1: much knock on effect from the banking turmoil that we've

125
00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:32,760
Speaker 1: seen in other play parts of the world. But actually

126
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 1: the Bank of England figures on deposit moves are quite interesting.

127
00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, they are. They came out around lunchtime yesterday. But

128
00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:39,919
Speaker 2: I do think that they're remarkable, and that's why I

129
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,559
Speaker 2: sort of want to highlight it now. Because almost five

130
00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:47,760
Speaker 2: billion pounds was removed from bank accounts by households in March.

131
00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:50,200
Speaker 2: That's the first decline in almost five years, and it

132
00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,080
Speaker 2: was five point eight billion for businesses. So yes. Bank

133
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,279
Speaker 2: of England data basically was after the collapse of Silicon

134
00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,720
Speaker 2: Valley Bank, also the takeover of Credit Swee, so some

135
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,640
Speaker 2: sort of concerns, even some panic, you might say. I

136
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,760
Speaker 2: thought it was just interesting that householders were so aware

137
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,600
Speaker 2: of this move. Although Ashley Webb, who's an economist, that

138
00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,800
Speaker 2: Capital Economics is not a bank run. Total UK bank

139
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,160
Speaker 2: deposits fell in March as concerns over the banking sector rows.

140
00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:19,480
Speaker 2: Money flowed into guilts instead, and so it's not big enough,

141
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,920
Speaker 2: he says, for it to constitute actually a bank run.

142
00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I mean, it's really interesting to see in

143
00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 1: the context of what we've been hearing from banks in

144
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,440
Speaker 1: the UK about the lack of spusknock on effect from

145
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,760
Speaker 1: bank contagion elsewhere. You heard in our top stories. They're

146
00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,239
Speaker 1: an extract of our interview with Lee Mayer from City,

147
00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,200
Speaker 1: who runs the bank's operations in Northern Ireland. This is

148
00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 1: part of a report we've're bringing to you a little

149
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,680
Speaker 1: bit later on that we've been looking at the optimism

150
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,280
Speaker 1: that we've heard around the prospects of Northern Irelands economy.

151
00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,680
Speaker 1: Richie Sunak talking about it being in a unique and

152
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,000
Speaker 1: privileged position after the Windsor Framework because businesses in Northern

153
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,160
Speaker 1: Irelands access the UK and EU single markets, with Joe

154
00:07:56,200 --> 00:08:00,120
Speaker 1: Biden promising massive American investment, so lots of optimism and

155
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 1: I went to Belfast to find out how businesses feel

156
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: about it and also how people living there, particularly those

157
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,720
Speaker 1: young people who've grown up in post the ninet ninety

158
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,720
Speaker 1: eight peace Agreement, feel about the prospects for northernids of economy.

159
00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 1: Really interesting to hear businesses say, look, the fact that

160
00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:15,360
Speaker 1: there's not a government is something that they can let

161
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 1: them hold them backs. They're pressing ahead with investments, the

162
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 1: likes of City hiring more people at their Belfast operations

163
00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,240
Speaker 1: as well. Not quite the same situation though for young

164
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,280
Speaker 1: people who are living in Northern Irelands, who definitely are

165
00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,280
Speaker 1: very frustrated with the political situation. A year on from elections.

166
00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,000
Speaker 2: Still no government, Yeah, absolutely, I'm really looking forward to

167
00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,800
Speaker 2: that special report that will bring you in just a moment.

168
00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:36,800
Speaker 2: Let's also get more details though now on the term

169
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,959
Speaker 2: or facing a US bank shares impact. Wes's first Horizon

170
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,640
Speaker 2: a Western Alliance all plunged again on Thursday, and we

171
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,960
Speaker 2: also talked about the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation drafting up

172
00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:51,280
Speaker 2: plans to show up its own finances. Our market supporter

173
00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,160
Speaker 2: value title is in the radio studio with us for more.

174
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,920
Speaker 2: What do we actually know about this FDIC proposal?

175
00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,240
Speaker 10: Bloomberger is reporting that they could announce how they tend

176
00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 10: to raise this special fee as early as next week. Now,

177
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,360
Speaker 10: remember they're sitting around twenty three billion dollars worth of

178
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,080
Speaker 10: losses from the first two bank failures back in March.

179
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,320
Speaker 10: This does not include First Republic right, twenty three billion

180
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 10: dollars of losses that they're going to need to recoup.

181
00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,280
Speaker 10: And the way they do that is they charge banks

182
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 10: based on their level of deposits. The more deposits you have,

183
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,679
Speaker 10: the more fee I'm going to charge you. Bloomberg is

184
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,720
Speaker 10: also reporting that they intend on charging the bigger banks

185
00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:28,440
Speaker 10: slightly more.

186
00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,040
Speaker 1: What would this mean then for those banks if they

187
00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 1: ended up having to pay more into this fund.

188
00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:36,920
Speaker 10: So if we look it back at the two thousand

189
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,600
Speaker 10: and nine example, when the FDIC did something very similar,

190
00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,160
Speaker 10: they were sitting on twenty billion of losses, did a

191
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,439
Speaker 10: special fee in order to recoup that. It really did

192
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,800
Speaker 10: hurt some of the bank's bottom line. If you look

193
00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,200
Speaker 10: at what happened to JP Morgan this was in the

194
00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 10: second quarter of two thousand and nine. It shaved ten

195
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,559
Speaker 10: cents off their earnings per share, and Wells Fargo had

196
00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:00,080
Speaker 10: an eight cents earnings per share hit. So this it

197
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,319
Speaker 10: does have a potential to be very painful for the

198
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 10: big lenders, especially because the FDIC has absolute full discretion

199
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:11,559
Speaker 10: on how they intend to raise this money. They don't

200
00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,160
Speaker 10: necessarily have to follow any strict rules about law sharing

201
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,319
Speaker 10: across all FDIC banks. They could target the big banks

202
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:18,960
Speaker 10: if they wanted to.

203
00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,480
Speaker 2: Okay, that's really interesting. Meanwhile, of course, the shares slide

204
00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,760
Speaker 2: for regional banks continues in the US. What's the latest

205
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,480
Speaker 2: in terms of the options and what these banks might do.

206
00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,560
Speaker 10: Look, they need to find a buyer, They need to

207
00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:34,040
Speaker 10: raise equity or raise capital in some way by divesting

208
00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,400
Speaker 10: some of their loans or doing a capital raise. But

209
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,640
Speaker 10: the thing that we can take from the First Republic

210
00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,440
Speaker 10: example is that there were no bidders for First Republic

211
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,760
Speaker 10: until the FDIC got involved with some sort of law

212
00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:50,400
Speaker 10: sharing agreement, and that tells us that maybe these big

213
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,240
Speaker 10: lenders don't see a lot of value in these regional

214
00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,400
Speaker 10: banks business models. The one thing I did find really

215
00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,439
Speaker 10: interesting about the market session yesterday is that the worst

216
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,480
Speaker 10: of the session, the front end of the rates curve

217
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,960
Speaker 10: priced in a full twenty five basis point FED cut

218
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 10: by July. I think the market is telling us that

219
00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,240
Speaker 10: it does not think the regional bank problem will be

220
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,160
Speaker 10: solved until the FED cuts rates and reinverts the curve,

221
00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 10: helping these lenders with their profitability issue. So in the meantime,

222
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,600
Speaker 10: what happens in the meantime, it's going to be a

223
00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:26,839
Speaker 10: slow bleed. We're going to see these lenders struggle with profitability,

224
00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 10: struggle with holding on to deposits because essentially they can't

225
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,160
Speaker 10: afford to pay five percent interests to keep these deposits,

226
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,280
Speaker 10: and those deposits are going to go elsewhere, to money

227
00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,480
Speaker 10: market funds, to other banks who can who can pay

228
00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,680
Speaker 10: five percent to hold on to their deposits. But essentially

229
00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,160
Speaker 10: their business model won't be that profitable if they do that,

230
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 10: and it's going to be a probably a slow bleed

231
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,439
Speaker 10: in these in these equity markets until they find some

232
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:53,080
Speaker 10: sort of buyer.

233
00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely painful value. Thank you so much. I know

234
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,679
Speaker 2: you'll keep us across this story throughout the morning our

235
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:00,640
Speaker 2: markets who port at Valichi. I tell now you've been

236
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,599
Speaker 2: in Northern Ireland recently, Stephen. You brought us us in

237
00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 2: special reporting. Very interesting in terms of what local businesses

238
00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,920
Speaker 2: are thinking about in the region. This after the visit

239
00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:11,880
Speaker 2: of President Joe Biden.

240
00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:13,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, there's been so much optimism about the Northern

241
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,439
Speaker 1: Irish economy. You had on one hand Ritchie Sunak telling

242
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,240
Speaker 1: Northern Ireland it was a unique and privileged position because

243
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 1: of its access to the UK and EU markets after

244
00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,640
Speaker 1: the Windsor Framework dealed, and you had Joe Biden saying

245
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,840
Speaker 1: that American companies were ready to mat with massive investment

246
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,880
Speaker 1: if Paris Sharing government has been restored. Now it's actually

247
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,280
Speaker 1: a year today since the last elections to the Northern

248
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 1: Ireland Assembly. There's still no government in place because of

249
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,760
Speaker 1: objections from the Democratic Unionist Party. So I wanted to

250
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,760
Speaker 1: ask businesses and local residents in Northern Ireland how they

251
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:49,120
Speaker 1: feel about this promise of prosperity. When you're thinking about

252
00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,440
Speaker 1: the past and the future of Northern Ireland's economy, the

253
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,600
Speaker 1: waterfront in Belfast is a good place to start. We're

254
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,800
Speaker 1: in the shadow of the cranes of the Harland and

255
00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,199
Speaker 1: Wolf Shipyard, but also now lining the banks of the

256
00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:05,160
Speaker 1: Lag and are glittering office blocks. The latest has seen

257
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,280
Speaker 1: the likes of American law firm Baker Mackenzie move in.

258
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,200
Speaker 1: The hope here is that after the Windsor Framework agreement

259
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,880
Speaker 1: and promises of American investment from US President Joe Biden,

260
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,880
Speaker 1: is that there's more of those sort of businesses that

261
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:19,640
Speaker 1: will come here.

262
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,920
Speaker 11: Absolutely, we've seen American interest and we've had we've seen

263
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,360
Speaker 11: that interest before Joe Biden's visit done before the Winter Framework.

264
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,920
Speaker 11: I would expect to see much greater interest and further

265
00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 11: proliferation of that interest.

266
00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,160
Speaker 1: That's Joe O'Neill, CEO of Belfast Harbor, one of the

267
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 1: biggest commercial property owners in the city. I am Belfast Harbor.

268
00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:43,160
Speaker 11: I am the rise and the fall of the tide,

269
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,240
Speaker 11: and the breath and the life and the Prey.

270
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,400
Speaker 1: This poem was commissioned to mark the port's one hundred

271
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 1: and seventy fifth year. It talks of a long tradition

272
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:59,000
Speaker 1: of innovation for Joe O'Neil. The Windsor Framework deal on

273
00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 1: post Brexit true Rules brings the possibility of a new beginning.

274
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,079
Speaker 11: I think we're only just starting to see global companies,

275
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,280
Speaker 11: global manufacturing companies now looking at that fast and the

276
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,319
Speaker 11: region with more detail, because I think they've got a

277
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,520
Speaker 11: certainty that, yes, this field tangible, I own this field

278
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 11: an opportunity, that we should be seriously assessing.

279
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,880
Speaker 1: That opportunity is something the Prime Minister Rachi Sunak has

280
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 1: been keen to highlight.

281
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:28,280
Speaker 12: Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position, unique position

282
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,640
Speaker 12: in the entire world European continent in having privileged access

283
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 12: not just to the UK home market but also the

284
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 12: European Union Single market.

285
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 1: So can the region capitalize on this unique position. The

286
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 1: bank's city is one of the biggest private sector employers

287
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,800
Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland, with over three thousand, seven hundred Stafflemeyer

288
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 1: leads its operations in Belfast.

289
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,800
Speaker 8: One of the challenges is that people need to understand

290
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 8: that Northern Ireland is exactly the same as any other

291
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,720
Speaker 8: part of Europe or of the UK, and that we

292
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 8: really have the same kind of expertise mayors has.

293
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,040
Speaker 1: The relative size of the region has helped them to

294
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 1: tackle skills shortages experienced elsewhere, particularly in technology.

295
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 8: We have this ability to influence a curricula, degree and

296
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 8: post degree purposes at the universities. So if we had

297
00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 8: something in a particular language that we wanted to focus on,

298
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 8: we would be able to speak to the university and

299
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 8: see we could put a module of that particular language

300
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 8: into the degrees.

301
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 1: But Northern Ireland suffers from a graduate brain drain. Research

302
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 1: from twenty twenty one found just over a third of

303
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,920
Speaker 1: those who left a study in Great Britain came back

304
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 1: to work in the region afterwards. That's part of the

305
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,800
Speaker 1: reality facing the generation who grew up here since the

306
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight peace agreement, those like twenty seven year

307
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 1: old Sean Ogle.

308
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 13: I've had an awful lot of friends that have moved away.

309
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 13: Actually did a big mix of places, and I think

310
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,360
Speaker 13: most have moved for economic reasons. Most have moved for work,

311
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,440
Speaker 13: which is quite sad because I do think that a

312
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,800
Speaker 13: lot of them would have stayed here if the opportunities

313
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 13: had it presented themselves.

314
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 1: Emer Smith, who's also twenty seven, is training as a

315
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 1: barrister in Belfast.

316
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 14: If I was only goe on the economy, I wouldn't

317
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,720
Speaker 14: stay here. My choice to become a barrister and to

318
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 14: stay here isn't because I think that Northern Ireland is

319
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 14: a great place to live, or a great place to

320
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,840
Speaker 14: raise a family, or a great place to have a

321
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,040
Speaker 14: great career. My reason to stay here is because I

322
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 14: think that there is potential in Northern Ireland and I

323
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 14: would like to wait and to see if that happens,

324
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 14: and to be a part of that change.

325
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: The missing piece of this puzzle is the lack of

326
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,760
Speaker 1: a functioning government in Northern Ireland. The Stormant Assembly building,

327
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 1: set in Rolling Parkland overlooking Belfast, lies dormant. That hasn't

328
00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,680
Speaker 1: been a Paris Sharing executive sitting here in fifteen months. Lee,

329
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,680
Speaker 1: Mayor from City says, business has had to carry on.

330
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 8: Over the last five years. We probably haven't had an

331
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 8: executive for more than a year and so we've had

332
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 8: to move forward. And I think what then is doing

333
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 8: is it's actually building the confidence of the business community

334
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,920
Speaker 8: to make effective decisions and grow the business their businesses

335
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 8: and the economy irrespective of whether they've got support from

336
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 8: the government. We would like that to change. We would

337
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 8: like to have a sitty in the executive.

338
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 1: A sentiment shared by Joe O'Neill from Belfast Harbor political stability.

339
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 11: It goes to the heart of most foreign direct investment decisions,

340
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 11: So I think we can't hide that if we were

341
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 11: able to sign posts and offer that reassurance to foreign

342
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 11: direct investors that there is a sitting assembly that is

343
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 11: clearly beneficial. But in the meantime it hasn't stopped us

344
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 11: particuarly in Belfast Harbor with pushing ahead with our investment plans.

345
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 1: While business may be able to press on. Emer Smith

346
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,200
Speaker 1: and Sean Ogle feel the sense of missed opportunities.

347
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 14: I would really encourage political leaders to leave from the front.

348
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 14: There's a thing that I always think is missing, and

349
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 14: that's political Graas there comes a point in time where

350
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,439
Speaker 14: you have to actually be able to make decisions that

351
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:00,520
Speaker 14: are for the great, are good.

352
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 13: It's deeply frustrating because I really do want it to succeed.

353
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 13: I think there is so much positive things to sing

354
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 13: and dance about about Northern Ireland. You know, there's so

355
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 13: much going forward. Yeah, we're being so held back by

356
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 13: things that are legacy issues from the past.

357
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 1: As ever, in Northern Ireland, the past looms large over

358
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: the present as the paralysis at storm and continues. The

359
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 1: question now is whether it's politicians can focus on the future.

360
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 2: So reporting from Northern Ireland steven so interesting to hear,

361
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 2: you know, businesses and actually what they're thinking about, how

362
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 2: they're feeling about the situation, the lack of a local

363
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 2: regional government there. It does mean that the Northern Ireland Secretary,

364
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 2: Cristique has is the one who's making decisions for budget

365
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 2: in Northern Ireland. Is there any sign of a breakthrough

366
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 2: in terms of changing this.

367
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 1: Not for the moment, and that doesn't mean that there

368
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: can't be one, you know, as we heard in that

369
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: report there. Over the history of the Northern Ireland Parish

370
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 1: air and government, there's been a lot of times where

371
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 1: the government has not worked and parties have been able

372
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 1: to come together and find a deal. So it's a

373
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 1: question of I suppose what triggers that. In the meantime, though,

374
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,439
Speaker 1: the most pressing issue for people in Northern Ireland is

375
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 1: the squeeze on public services because as a result of

376
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 1: that budget being set by Chris Heaton Harris and the

377
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 1: overspend by the storm and localist officials essentially because there've

378
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,640
Speaker 1: been no ministers in place ins October, means that there

379
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: are going to be big budg street constraints on things

380
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,399
Speaker 1: like the health service education in Northern Ireland as well,

381
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 1: and that's going to be something that people feel very keenly.

382
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: Okay, Stephen, thank you so much. You can read Stephen's

383
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,879
Speaker 2: full right up, I'm reporting on the Bloomberg Tamil also,

384
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 2: thank you so much.

385
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: Up next to the BOE's bargain for confessions, the law

386
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 1: shows up to the AI debate and what's Russian for

387
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 1: CEU in Court?

388
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 4: Now the paper review on blue Bird Daybreak Europe. The

389
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 4: news you need to know from today's papers.

390
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's James Wilcock joins us now for I look through

391
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: the newspapers. The Bank of England looks to cut city

392
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 2: wrongdoing penalty. That story in the Financial Times.

393
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 3: Yes, good morning, Caroline. So this is all about the

394
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 3: Bank of being this prudential regulational authority that's the art

395
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 3: that deals with kind of financial crime. They are talking

396
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 3: about upping their penalties to fifty percent. So effectively, if

397
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 3: you come clean and say I've done this crime, here's

398
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 3: the evidence, really sorry, you can get a discount on

399
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 3: the penalty of up to half. Now it was already

400
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 3: thirty percent, and obviously the bank and the Prudential Regulation

401
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 3: Authority retained discretion about how they use that. But this

402
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 3: story is fascinating because as we talk about the FCA

403
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 3: this week, we've also talked about pay this week. Ways

404
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 3: to free up the city. This proposed has been mooted

405
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 3: as a way of clearing up the backlog and making

406
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 3: the PRA more efficient. City Minster Andrew Griffiths has publicly

407
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 3: a monishment in the past of operational efficiency and it's

408
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: ten years to the day actually since the pis were crazy.

409
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 3: It was created in April twenty thirteen, so it.

410
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 2: Is ten years.

411
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 3: Well, it's gone so quickly, and so this whole question

412
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 3: now of in some ways the PIA has been incredibly effective,

413
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 3: and we look at what happened just recently with SVB.

414
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 3: In the other sense, it's been accused of being excessively

415
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 3: risk averse and slow to act in their entails, which

416
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 3: is where the city Minister comes in of deals not

417
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 3: getting across the line because it's taken so long to

418
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 3: come across. So this proposal is a fascinating way taken

419
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 3: as a review's out for consultation that we back in

420
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 3: August as to a way to sort of free up time,

421
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 3: encourage people to come forward and potentially get a discount

422
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: in any kind of wrongdoing.

423
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 1: Let's go next. James to the Guardian, summing up a

424
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 1: busy week for the AI AI industry and regulation.

425
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: Yes, Stephen, so this space is moving so so quickly,

426
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,880
Speaker 3: and we have seen this week we are a large

427
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: letters some people like Elon Musk with mass amounts of signatrees.

428
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 3: We've seen the CMA, the UK regulators say they have

429
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: started a review and most recently seen the White House

430
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 3: advising tech firms of their quote fundamental responsibility to develop

431
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 3: safe products. And it's all because people fear there are

432
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 3: multiple racist to the bottom going on here. Companies don't

433
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 3: want to be the last to sort of put out

434
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 3: their first new model, and also there's a fear that

435
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 3: safeguards as well as sort of national security are at risk,

436
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 3: leading that you might get more and more AI mods

437
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 3: just put out there now I mean our agi. Cantrell

438
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 3: was speaking to a man called Christoph Schumann, who is

439
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 3: the founder of lyon the large AI open network. They

440
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: open source or they are AI, and the focus of

441
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 3: her piece was the models that you see trained on

442
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 3: Google or chat GPT. You don't know what's in them,

443
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 3: but a lot of them say they are using just

444
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 3: open source data, and the freedoms and rules around that

445
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 3: are also completely it's uncharted territory. So into this mess

446
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: walks the regulators and they're saying, we are watching, we

447
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 3: are increasingly trying to figure out what the rules and

448
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 3: ethicistic space are while sort of this wild West is happening,

449
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: and there are kind of clear ethical principles we expect

450
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 3: you to abide by while we figure out what the

451
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: rules of the space could be.

452
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the thing. Nobody's written the playbook. Yeah,

453
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: and yet this is potentially the second Internet Revolution, isn't it.

454
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 2: Also there's another nice story just to end on here

455
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 2: in cityam writing about the number of Russians using London courts,

456
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: but a specific type of court, this is the commercial courts.

457
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

458
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 2: I thought this was really interesting in terms of numbers,

459
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 2: given the sanctions.

460
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 3: Yes, and it has hit the largest amount ever. After Brits,

461
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 3: the most likely people to be using the commercial courts

462
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 3: are Russians. Brits four hundred and forty one suits and

463
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 3: Russians fifty eight in the past year. And what is

464
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: fascinating about that is that is still continuing, like you said,

465
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: despite the sanctions, and it comes after you. This has

466
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,479
Speaker 3: been a decade of incredible Russian use where they come

467
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 3: into London seeking fair arbitration, seeking clear accessible law. I

468
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: go back to the Abronovich Berezovski suit, which was six

469
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 3: point five billion dollars a decade ago. Over these sort

470
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 3: of oil profits gained in Russia, and that is still

471
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 3: happening now. But that hits the report says, may still

472
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 3: come because now law firms are so incentivized against taking

473
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 3: on any new Russian clients.

474
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: This might have.

475
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 3: Peaked, so it was good while it lasted, but this

476
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 3: might be kind of nearing the end of where it

477
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 3: goes from here on end.

478
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

479
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

480
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,

481
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

482
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

483
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

484
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

485
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

486
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

487
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

488
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day right here

489
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg day Break Europe