1
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along

2
00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,039
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa A. Bramowitz Jailey. We bring

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,119
Speaker 1: you insight from the best an economics, finance, investment, and

4
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:23,320
Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

5
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal as

6
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 1: any joined us. Now, have you got any research the

7
00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,559
Speaker 1: president and found it? And can we start in this

8
00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,280
Speaker 1: international story? Just start that just got a little bit deeper?

9
00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:37,880
Speaker 1: What do you make of it? Just the runny was

10
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,479
Speaker 1: sink and he am in base metals, in kappa and

11
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,199
Speaker 1: ol sweat to well. Last year there was a lot

12
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,559
Speaker 1: of talk about a recession around the world. We started

13
00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: out last year with a lot of concern that, uh,

14
00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,880
Speaker 1: if the FED was in fact in a titan An,

15
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,360
Speaker 1: inflation was going to be persistent, that the US might

16
00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 1: fall into recession, and there was a lot of chatter

17
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: in the first half of the year when real GDP

18
00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,280
Speaker 1: was down. But there's also a lot of talk about

19
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 1: Europe going into a recession because of the war in

20
00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,440
Speaker 1: Ukraine and what that did energy supplies in Europe, and

21
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 1: then of course China has been struggling with another wave

22
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,360
Speaker 1: of the pandemic. So you put it all together, and

23
00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,679
Speaker 1: the outlook was for last year for the global economy

24
00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,880
Speaker 1: to be weak. Uh. Now I think there's UH. The

25
00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,319
Speaker 1: markets are signaling that the plunge and natural gas prices

26
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,920
Speaker 1: in Europe suggested Europe may not have a recession after all.

27
00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:40,040
Speaker 1: And now with China abandoning the UH, the COVID policy

28
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,080
Speaker 1: opening up, there's a perception that we may get a

29
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 1: terrible wave of the pandemic for a few months, but

30
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,600
Speaker 1: then it should abate in China should open. So the

31
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 1: outlook for the world economy I think is actually improving.

32
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,560
Speaker 1: So at these trends, you want to ride the Runnie

33
00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:56,640
Speaker 1: was saying in the amiquities the Ronnie was saying of

34
00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,640
Speaker 1: the minors in place man, Yes, yeah, absolutely, especially since

35
00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,320
Speaker 1: UH we started out the year or ended up last

36
00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 1: year with sort of a consensus view that the market

37
00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:08,639
Speaker 1: was going to go down and make a new low.

38
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,239
Speaker 1: The stock market in the U S would make a

39
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,679
Speaker 1: new low by the middle of the year and then

40
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 1: would provide opportunities. I think we made a low on

41
00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,320
Speaker 1: October twelfth in the market. I think that was the

42
00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 1: end of the bear market, and I think we're back

43
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,520
Speaker 1: in a bull market, not straight up, a lot of volatility,

44
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,679
Speaker 1: but I think the markets are telling us that the

45
00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 1: world economy is improving. You know, any Torsten Slack moments

46
00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,040
Speaker 1: ago to Apollo brings up the heart of it, the

47
00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,560
Speaker 1: calculus which he studied at Yale a few years ago.

48
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,600
Speaker 1: And the basic idea here is we've been fixated on

49
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 1: the level of inflation, and now the market and the

50
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,080
Speaker 1: pundits and economists like you are switching to the first

51
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:50,040
Speaker 1: and second derivatives, the change of the movement, the dynamics

52
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,359
Speaker 1: of inflation. How does it FED adapt to that focus

53
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:58,359
Speaker 1: and that change. Well, I think the FED recognizes and

54
00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,760
Speaker 1: is embarrassed by the fact that they made a mistake

55
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:05,720
Speaker 1: at the end of one and early two, that they

56
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,640
Speaker 1: turned out to fall away behind the inflation curve. And

57
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,080
Speaker 1: I think they're trying to make up for that mistake

58
00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:16,840
Speaker 1: by possibly making another mistake. But look, I don't tell

59
00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,799
Speaker 1: the FED what to do. I try to anticipate what

60
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,200
Speaker 1: they're gonna do, and right now it certainly looks like

61
00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,960
Speaker 1: they're gonna do another seventy five basis points, maybe in

62
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,680
Speaker 1: twenty five basis points increments in the first half of

63
00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,959
Speaker 1: the year. Uh, even though the data may suggest that

64
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,000
Speaker 1: that's really not necessary, and then they intend to keep

65
00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:38,200
Speaker 1: it there at five and um, I have no problems

66
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,640
Speaker 1: with that. Really. I think the economy is resilient. I'd

67
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,680
Speaker 1: love to go back. That's the point here. You know,

68
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,280
Speaker 1: you're you know, and your you and we face this.

69
00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 1: So if we get up into the five is range

70
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,600
Speaker 1: in the key phrase from you, Dr yodanny is, and

71
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 1: we stay there. There's a lot of punditry that the

72
00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 1: world will come to an end, as we know. Push

73
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 1: against that. Well, that's that's that's not my my style.

74
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 1: I I rarely think that the world's going to come

75
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,520
Speaker 1: to an end, and quite the opposite. When I see

76
00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,280
Speaker 1: a lot of people talking that way, my contrary instincts

77
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,000
Speaker 1: come out, and I think that we may actually be

78
00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:20,719
Speaker 1: seeing a change from the new normal of unconventional monetary policies,

79
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 1: ultra easy monetary policies that we had from two thousand

80
00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,479
Speaker 1: and nine to two thousand and twenty one, back to

81
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 1: the old normal. I would be great if we could

82
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,479
Speaker 1: get back to kind of an environment where interest rates

83
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:38,040
Speaker 1: are not zero, where we don't have monetary policy buying

84
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,120
Speaker 1: bonds in bulk UH, and I think that's what we're

85
00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,960
Speaker 1: what we're seeing that we're going back to the the

86
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:49,159
Speaker 1: old normal economy, which is able to grow with reasonably

87
00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,799
Speaker 1: UH with reasonable interest rates. Zero is not a reasonable

88
00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,279
Speaker 1: interest rate. And if that's the case, then that raises

89
00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,760
Speaker 1: leadership questions. Why do you think that leadership comes from

90
00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,360
Speaker 1: both from a sector perspective and a a geographic perspective as

91
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:07,240
Speaker 1: well well. I think that investors right now are in

92
00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,360
Speaker 1: fact training more optimistic about the global economy, and they're

93
00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,840
Speaker 1: looking for where values are still relatively cheap. And so

94
00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: we've already had a big run in China and now

95
00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: they're looking at Europe. I think it's a diversified global

96
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,840
Speaker 1: portfolio makes sense here. I think the U S is

97
00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,520
Speaker 1: gonna do just fine. And the leadership I think in

98
00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,479
Speaker 1: the US is going to be industrials because there's so

99
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,839
Speaker 1: much money in the fiscal stimulus pipeline for infrastructure and

100
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,000
Speaker 1: semiconductor plants. And I think we also have on shoring.

101
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,160
Speaker 1: I'm looking at data showing manufacturing UH, the structures building

102
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,440
Speaker 1: of manufacturing structures is an all time record high in

103
00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,479
Speaker 1: the US. So turn it all together and I think

104
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,640
Speaker 1: you just diversify. What does trade do at your Danny

105
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 1: x M. Given a Chinese recovery, what is the export

106
00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,760
Speaker 1: dynamics and the import dynamics. Well, you know where everybody

107
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,159
Speaker 1: is talking about on shoring and production moving out of

108
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,360
Speaker 1: China back to the United States or at least to

109
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,239
Speaker 1: Mexico and Vietnam. Um. The reality is the world hasn't

110
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,760
Speaker 1: changed that radically in the past couple of years. Uh.

111
00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 1: If the U S economy is actually going to uh

112
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,599
Speaker 1: have no landing this year, which which I think is

113
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,760
Speaker 1: a plausible case, I would say that it's it's included

114
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,680
Speaker 1: in the probitabilities of soft landing, which I put at

115
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,279
Speaker 1: we could have no landing, and if we have no

116
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,719
Speaker 1: landing and the consumer continues to spend, that would increase

117
00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,560
Speaker 1: our trade deficit. Amazing a quickly this conversation has changed

118
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,640
Speaker 1: just to mind efinite one. It's January eleven, and we're

119
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:42,159
Speaker 1: already questioned. It's amazing and you got any if you

120
00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,280
Speaker 1: had any research taking the other side of things right now,

121
00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,600
Speaker 1: right now. Sarah May joins US now chief investment officer

122
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,480
Speaker 1: at Novine, thrilled she could be patient as we go

123
00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:59,360
Speaker 1: over the aviation moment. Sarah, what's your confidence in your outlook?

124
00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: I would say, asked certitude or confidence has been shattered

125
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,280
Speaker 1: in the ten days of January. Well, Marcus in the

126
00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 1: FED disagree on the outlook, but we expect markets to

127
00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,520
Speaker 1: tread water until we get to two events this week,

128
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,800
Speaker 1: and that's CPI and earnings. Now, whispers are for CPI

129
00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,520
Speaker 1: to be better than expected. We expect moderate growth as

130
00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,160
Speaker 1: we see that continued shift from goods to services, lower

131
00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 1: auto prices, but consumers still keep spending. But is that

132
00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,800
Speaker 1: enough to get the Fed to change their course? I

133
00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 1: don't think so. We still will see a long tail

134
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,960
Speaker 1: of a pause and interest rate heights, and also a

135
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,280
Speaker 1: long tail of inflation. And then secondarily is earnings. What

136
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,520
Speaker 1: I am pleased to see is that earnings growth is

137
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,360
Speaker 1: expected to be flat for this quarter and we are

138
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,760
Speaker 1: seeing margins decline, but revenue growth is still positive for

139
00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: the years. So the question is if we go into

140
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,600
Speaker 1: a economic slowdown, revenue growth probably can't stay positive. And

141
00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,840
Speaker 1: market evaluations are pricing in a very optimistic scenario. And

142
00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 1: that's what makes me concerned about the rest of how

143
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,800
Speaker 1: do you allocate? Now? What is the gross all I

144
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:03,160
Speaker 1: mean the Nuvine heritages fixed income. But what is the

145
00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 1: allocation you choose to have right now? It is fixed

146
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,600
Speaker 1: income over equities because I think what you can get

147
00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,840
Speaker 1: is more traditional equity life returns in fixed income for

148
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,040
Speaker 1: lower volatility. A lot of that rate high pain is

149
00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,000
Speaker 1: priced into fixed income. I'm worried about equity earnings. I

150
00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,640
Speaker 1: think they're still too high. We've not seen the impact

151
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,680
Speaker 1: of tight, tighter monetary policy on earnings, on margins, and

152
00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,760
Speaker 1: on that positive revenue growth that probably isn't sustainable. So

153
00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 1: I think fixed income looks better. Take on a little

154
00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,319
Speaker 1: bit more duration and risk there and you can get

155
00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,679
Speaker 1: high single digit to low double digit returns in quality

156
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,400
Speaker 1: areas like investment grade and municipal bonds. Are Are you

157
00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,240
Speaker 1: more concerned about earnings in one sector over another or

158
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,600
Speaker 1: is this pretty broad pace pretty widespread. I think it

159
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,880
Speaker 1: could be widespread, depending on the depth of the recession.

160
00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:49,880
Speaker 1: If you look at earnings this year, it looks kind

161
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,640
Speaker 1: of similar last year, with the energy leading and technology

162
00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,959
Speaker 1: at the bottom. I think there's interesting areas within technology

163
00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,160
Speaker 1: where you could see stronger earnings as we start to

164
00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 1: go through the cycle. The areas that are less cypical

165
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 1: I still like software here. I think summer conductors could

166
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,120
Speaker 1: hit an inflection point this year. Kicking up later this

167
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 1: week will be financials. That's an area that we're not

168
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,920
Speaker 1: incredibly positive on because of the capital's markets risk for

169
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,760
Speaker 1: these large banks. I like the regional banks over large banks.

170
00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,200
Speaker 1: They are more protected and away from capital markets issues.

171
00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 1: So there's this massive cychnical story emerging off the back

172
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 1: of China reopening. And Tom and I've been talking about

173
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,400
Speaker 1: all morning. I'd love your view on it. You've got

174
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,680
Speaker 1: a commodity market rallying base metals, copper through nine thousand,

175
00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,520
Speaker 1: You've got em equities back in a ball market. We

176
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 1: talked about Europe at the top of the hour. European

177
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 1: banks up more than since the summer lows. They believe

178
00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,440
Speaker 1: in the cynical story, at least relative to where we

179
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,120
Speaker 1: were several months ago. And Sarah, I'm wondering why that's

180
00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,840
Speaker 1: not showing up at the long end of the bond market.

181
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,559
Speaker 1: Everyone's saying, let's take on duration, let's look for those

182
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,679
Speaker 1: lower yields. But x US, this market right now is

183
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,319
Speaker 1: not screaming recession. I think short term you're going to

184
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 1: get a rebound in a lot of these areas because

185
00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,840
Speaker 1: of China reopening. I have questions over long term the

186
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,000
Speaker 1: real economic growth of China and where we get to

187
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,520
Speaker 1: once we get past this bounce. China is kind of

188
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,200
Speaker 1: a sprung coil that it had very poor returns for

189
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:04,960
Speaker 1: the last couple of years and then finally it started

190
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,360
Speaker 1: to pick up recently. Um also commodities, they'll have another story,

191
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 1: which is renewable energy. The amount of demand for areas

192
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,720
Speaker 1: such as copper and cobalt nickel is also being driven

193
00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,120
Speaker 1: as we shipped to using more and more renewable energy.

194
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,840
Speaker 1: I expect the demand for copper to actually double by

195
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,000
Speaker 1: the year two thousand and thirty five. And if you

196
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,480
Speaker 1: look at the supply of copper even in the US,

197
00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,160
Speaker 1: we've been cutting supply for the last twenty five years.

198
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,160
Speaker 1: So there's another metal story that's important. Energy has its

199
00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 1: own fundamentals. Demand has been strong for energy for a while,

200
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,280
Speaker 1: supplies been tight, our peak investment in energy was producers

201
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,240
Speaker 1: are focusing on returning tash to shareholders. So the energy

202
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,319
Speaker 1: fundamental story remains strong with it without China. So that's

203
00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,160
Speaker 1: a structural story. Can we just sit on the cyclical

204
00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,040
Speaker 1: one a little bit longer. This is the question at

205
00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,640
Speaker 1: the moment for us, should we be pricing in a

206
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 1: growth reband off the back of China reopening or a

207
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 1: growth slowed down off the back of all the time,

208
00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 1: and we've seen which one is it. I think that

209
00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,600
Speaker 1: what I'm was worried about is the impact of tightening.

210
00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,439
Speaker 1: You're getting right into the period where we're started to

211
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,120
Speaker 1: see what this aggresive increasing rate hikes around the world

212
00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,400
Speaker 1: dost of the economy. I'm more worried about that and

213
00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:06,760
Speaker 1: what that does versus China, which I think is a

214
00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,480
Speaker 1: shorter term play, shorter term rebound as they get back

215
00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,160
Speaker 1: to normal. But the overhanging main event of the year

216
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,520
Speaker 1: is going to be what amount of damage of global

217
00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,280
Speaker 1: central banks done to the economy? And what's holding us

218
00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,960
Speaker 1: up here? It's the consumer and it's the employment markets.

219
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,800
Speaker 1: Were already seeing the consumer def into their saving rates

220
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,640
Speaker 1: to keep spending. Employment markets have not cracked yet. But

221
00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,280
Speaker 1: if the consumer and the employment markets cracked, I think

222
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,680
Speaker 1: that then is the recession story that you get and

223
00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 1: the unwinded revenue growth, and that would have told us

224
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,240
Speaker 1: that market evaluations are too high right now. Saramonica moving

225
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,880
Speaker 1: Sarah thank you just brilliant as always, saramonic that moving,

226
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,320
Speaker 1: David melt Pass. What I note here that's so important

227
00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,200
Speaker 1: is the linkage into China. Your website shows the linkage

228
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:02,800
Speaker 1: of the World Bank into China. What is your knowledge

229
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:08,400
Speaker 1: of any China recovery? Hi, Tom and John. I was

230
00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 1: there in December. I think they were just beginning to

231
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,760
Speaker 1: digest this, uh, coming off of the lockdowns. You know,

232
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 1: the lockdowns were massive in China. Change the whole way

233
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,920
Speaker 1: people went to went to the factory and and uh

234
00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:27,280
Speaker 1: got there, got their groceries and and uh that changed

235
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:32,199
Speaker 1: almost overnight. And so the the future still has to

236
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 1: be worked out as they have infections of COVID spreading

237
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,920
Speaker 1: through China. One one outlook would be that they that

238
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 1: they digested and then move into more production. That would

239
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,720
Speaker 1: help the world. Another is that it takes them many

240
00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,520
Speaker 1: many months to absorb it. So we'll have to see.

241
00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,880
Speaker 1: We'll know more I think in a couple of months.

242
00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,320
Speaker 1: On China itself. My my big worry time, as you know,

243
00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,000
Speaker 1: is there's the lack of investment going into developing countries.

244
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 1: There's this big pulling back by those investors that were

245
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,239
Speaker 1: reaching for yield. They're they're reindamining all of those investments,

246
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,400
Speaker 1: and that's a challenge. David. I would say, in a

247
00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:11,719
Speaker 1: history of the I M from the World Bank, there

248
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:16,960
Speaker 1: is no single leader like you who's actually modeled and

249
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,880
Speaker 1: guest economic growth. You and Terry Weisman and Emi Shio

250
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 1: years ago. It bears Stearns. Do you have confidence in

251
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 1: the data out of China now that leads you to

252
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 1: some form of cautious estimate of global growth? Yes, the

253
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,679
Speaker 1: data coming out of China is is you know, of

254
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 1: course it can be criticized. But I've made this point before.

255
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 1: If you think of what a GDP number, real GDP

256
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,680
Speaker 1: for even UH countries like the US is a range

257
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,520
Speaker 1: of possibilities, and in China, same thing. UH and so

258
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,560
Speaker 1: it's clear that they slowed down quite a bit in

259
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 1: the in the third quarter, and for because of the lockdowns.

260
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,839
Speaker 1: They had a really massive down. Remember going from Shanghai

261
00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 1: to Beijing, big production centers UH and so, and those

262
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 1: are coming off now, UH and so hard hard to

263
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,800
Speaker 1: know in advance how how much acceleration there can be

264
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,400
Speaker 1: during three UH. It will help the world if they do.

265
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm talking to market economist to Johnny

266
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 1: male Pass is going to hang up and walk away.

267
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:27,480
Speaker 1: David very seriously, here can a week dollar save e M.

268
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,240
Speaker 1: I mean, if we get any form of metric moving

269
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 1: strong dollar to week dollar, does that assuage the worry

270
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 1: that we have about emerging market finance? No? So I

271
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 1: think the best for the world is to have the

272
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,200
Speaker 1: dollar be stable and then other countries try to have

273
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,560
Speaker 1: their own currencies be stable as well. That allows them

274
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,880
Speaker 1: to absorb new investment. So I'd be worried if if

275
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 1: we for some reason went into a week dollar phase

276
00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 1: that that would reduce global investment. They'd be worried about

277
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,160
Speaker 1: what the future would bring. Um, well, that's that's not

278
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:09,640
Speaker 1: in our outlook. If you say, might the the euro

279
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,320
Speaker 1: in the end has recovered some from very weak phase

280
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,680
Speaker 1: two three or four months ago, that's that's good and

281
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 1: that softens the downturn of the of the outlook. But

282
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 1: uh ideal would be if we can get a lot

283
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 1: of new investment into the countries that really needed, that's

284
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: the countries that have big population growth or that have

285
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 1: very low wages. They can use new tractors, new computers,

286
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:41,160
Speaker 1: new machinery, cement making machinery, new bulldozers, uh, and that's

287
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,760
Speaker 1: that's uh limited right now, especially in the poorest countries.

288
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: It's even I'd like to ask you a supply side question,

289
00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 1: if that's okay. Just to wrap things up, we tucked

290
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,520
Speaker 1: on China, and I think everyone focused on the demand side.

291
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,400
Speaker 1: What's your base case, David, Are you thinking about the

292
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,920
Speaker 1: supply side seeing some relief or further displications off the

293
00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: back of this demand snapping back in both So, as

294
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,640
Speaker 1: we look at the supply chains, they went through a

295
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 1: really bad phase a year ago. That improves substantially, but

296
00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,640
Speaker 1: then that disclosed other weaknesses within the supply chain. So

297
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 1: in China fills many of those and as their factory

298
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 1: production goes back up as they get through COVID UH

299
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 1: that that will help in certain areas. So I think

300
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:26,520
Speaker 1: we're going to see relief on certain some things, for example, uh,

301
00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: fertilizer around the world that's been in really short supply.

302
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 1: China is a major producer, but in other areas still

303
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 1: these shortages because the capital is not flowing yet. And

304
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 1: and importantly in this is the asset repricing that has

305
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 1: to be done after you've come off the zero percent

306
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 1: interest rate environment ten years at a zero percent interest

307
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 1: rate means you've got to work out the pricing of

308
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: many assets. Devin mount Pass at the Well Bank, David,

309
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 1: I think that forecast a global GDP. Everyone's intention, including us.

310
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,360
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. The band with us. They've a compass

311
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:06,959
Speaker 1: that the president at the World Bank. It is always

312
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 1: good to speak to the gentleman from Arkansas. French Hill

313
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 1: has been a good friend of this show in explaining

314
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 1: his view on Washington policy, and he has a not

315
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,720
Speaker 1: in acquaintance with the f a A. French I want

316
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 1: to go back five years ago and you play local

317
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: domestic politics by getting the f a A to commit

318
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:29,880
Speaker 1: to Little Rock and to commit to aviation away from

319
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 1: what we talk about, which is Atlantic Newark JFK and

320
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 1: in l a X as well. What is your confidence

321
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 1: in the funding of the f a A right now?

322
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 1: Are they underfunded on target or do we need to

323
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 1: step it up? Well, Tom John, good to be with you.

324
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 1: I think the f a has had robust funding. I

325
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 1: think people would know that we have the finest air

326
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,879
Speaker 1: traffic control system in the world, so I have no

327
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 1: doubt they'll get to the bottom of this. If the

328
00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: need assistance from me to the executive branch or Congress,

329
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 1: they'll be the first to speak up about it. We've

330
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,680
Speaker 1: had a great relationship in Little Rock with the f

331
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 1: a A and helping us expand economic development by working

332
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 1: with our airport and changing the location of their air

333
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 1: traffic control Will Cones. So look, I've got a great

334
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 1: relationship with him, and we stand about to help if

335
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 1: we need to. We'll see how we get through the morning.

336
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,439
Speaker 1: You're trying to get through January French Hill as a

337
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 1: Republican trying to get to February one, our guests and

338
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 1: even within Bloomberg surveillance French there is a serious mystery

339
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,720
Speaker 1: to what we observed in a small group of Republicans

340
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 1: versus an embedded GOP in the house. Describe right now

341
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 1: the nascent relationship between the speaker, grizzled veterans like you,

342
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 1: and the crew we heard from front and Center a

343
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,920
Speaker 1: number of days ago. Yeah, it was a tumultuous week.

344
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 1: Last week. It took fifteen ballots to elect Kevin McCarthy

345
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,199
Speaker 1: the speaker, and that's set a historic record in the

346
00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 1: in the recent modern history. But look all along the way, Tom,

347
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 1: there was a lot of attention to that nineteen twenty

348
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: one members who were holding out, But what about the

349
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: two d people that were consistently they're saying Kevin McCarthy

350
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 1: is the best choice for speaker, and for many of them,

351
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 1: he's the only choice for speaker. So that's what carried

352
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: us through the week. And I'll say this, I think

353
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 1: a lot has been made about what concessions did Kevin

354
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 1: McCarthy give in order to become speaker, And in my view,

355
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 1: they were not as dramatic as some of the news

356
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: media coverage that I've seen. Do you know those concessions?

357
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: Even this morning, this seems to have mystery I saw

358
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 1: one relatively expert pundit say, look, it's all gonna leak

359
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: out eventually. Is french Hill aware of what those concepts

360
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 1: MISTI mysterious concessions are? Yeah? I am. I was one

361
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 1: of Mr McCarthy's negotiators last week with the holdout group

362
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 1: and excuse me, and the the agreement surrounds three things. First,

363
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: the rules package, which there was only one change to

364
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 1: the rules package that had already been approved by members

365
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 1: of Congress on the Republican side, and that was the

366
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: vacate the chair emotion. Emotion that's been in place since

367
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 1: nineteen All speakers have faced a vacate the chair emotion

368
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:14,120
Speaker 1: except for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The second topic was the budget.

369
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: How do we control spending after the pandemic and after

370
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: the Joe Biden spending spree? How do we go back

371
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,360
Speaker 1: to basic principles and reduce the budget deficit? And then

372
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 1: the third and final category of things that we agreed

373
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: to were to make sure that every voice in our

374
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 1: Republican Conference is represented on a committee. And that was

375
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: essentially Yet there is no secret agreement, and everything that

376
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 1: I'm aware of in that agreement has been made public

377
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 1: in our conference meetings or by press reports. Conferson Hill,

378
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 1: I would suggest, respectfully that yes, there's been a Biden

379
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: spending spree, but there was a Trump spending spree and

380
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 1: before that another spree, and we're spree spree spree back decades.

381
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 1: We're trying to find a rational fiscal path for this nation.

382
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 1: Can that be? Is bipartisan? Is our actions on China? Boy?

383
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 1: It needs to be? Tom, And I think you make

384
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: a very good point. Look, the baseline for the Congressional

385
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: Budget Office, as we're gonna have one and a half

386
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: trillion dollar depths it's for the next ten years under

387
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: those principal spending measures that Joe Biden authorized and asked

388
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: for in the last two years, and it has been

389
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 1: made worse. And I want to go back to the

390
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: time where Republicans and Democrats both agreed budgets were bad.

391
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: I've got just some a little bit of time left,

392
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: French How do we get back to Scoop Jackson and

393
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 1: HHH actually talking to Republicans? Well, we have a group.

394
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,919
Speaker 1: I think our new Budget Committee Chairman Jody Arrington of

395
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: West Texas has got a group of thirty Republicans and

396
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: thirty Democrats that are working on how do we get

397
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: back to budget sanity? And I think that's a smart

398
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: way to do it. Has have those individual visits. We

399
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: have to we have to go. We have to charge

400
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 1: of football. It is it like basically Stein. Alright, French Hill,

401
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: this is really important. I mean, we know Arkansas is

402
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: going to reign supreme, but just simple now, is Georgia

403
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 1: the new Alabama? And football? Boy, don't tell anybody from

404
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: Alabama that everybody had a red coat on here from Georgia.

405
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: You'll have a great day, Fred Hill, Thank you so much. Colressmith,

406
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 1: thank you David Rubinstein joins US now with Carlisle and

407
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: of course host of peer to peer conversations with a

408
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: really important conversation made more important by the news flow

409
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: in the coin based world. David, this kid is from

410
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 1: Palo Alto. This kid is from engineering. He took one

411
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: of the great double degrees in America Rice University, economics

412
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: and game theory, did all the right things, and his

413
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 1: company is now falling apart. Well, I wouldn't say it's

414
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: falling apart. The company has publicly traded. It did have

415
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: a market cap that's probably about above what it is today.

416
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: But the company has real revenue. The company is laying

417
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: off some people. It's laying off its workforce at previously

418
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: laid off eighteen percent. But the company is regulated by

419
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: the US government. The company UM is a very large

420
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 1: UH company that does with that that deals with trading

421
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: of bitcoin other cryptocurrencies, and it has a real business,

422
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: has real revenue, and it seems to be doing the

423
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 1: opposite of what ft X did. It doesn't trade for

424
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: its own account, doesn't have its own coin that are

425
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: token that it's created, so it's much different than than

426
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: f t X. Unfortunately, it's been hurt by the ft

427
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 1: X challenges. What does you take on this And as

428
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: you talked to Brian in the news flow and the

429
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: concentration that I as an amateur cy with finance as well,

430
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: does he have a strategic ability to recover? Is there

431
00:23:54,920 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: a coin based difference because of Mr Armstrong? Well, Brian

432
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 1: is a very smart person, as you point out, as

433
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: an engineer. His parents were engineers as well and involved

434
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: in computer software. He really is a very very smart,

435
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: highly focused person. He's built a very good company which

436
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,479
Speaker 1: is now caught in a mailstream alstrom of of the

437
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: problems of ft X. But I think his company is

438
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 1: one that that really does have real revenue. It does

439
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: serve a real purpose. If you want to buy a cryptocurrency,

440
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 1: you can do it through his company, and it's regulated

441
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: by the US government. It's publicly traded company. Now, alex

442
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: stock has gone down a fair bit, but that's not unexpected.

443
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: A lot of technology companies are going down, and obviously

444
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: a lot of crypto companies have gone down as well. David,

445
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: did he speak of his future about his linkage to

446
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: the underlying I'm going to use the price of bitcoin

447
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 1: there from fifties sixty thousand on down to a present

448
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 1: seventeen thousand. How critical is the price of bitcoin for

449
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: his operational path forward? I don't think the price of

450
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: bitcoin is as important as the volume having people go

451
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: in and trade, whether price is higher or lower, it

452
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: is probably not as irrelevant to him. Just like a

453
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: NASDAC or New York Stock at Change, he's basically providing

454
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 1: an exchange where people can buy cryptocurrencies, and it seems

455
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: to be uh, you know, well run clearly right now.

456
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: He's now reducing head count because volume is down a bit,

457
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,719
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's a company that's just going

458
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: to fall apart um. It's much different than FTX. What

459
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: is the opportunistic moment here for private investors such as Carlisle.

460
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: I don't need you to give me the family jewels,

461
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 1: but in this chaos is their crypto opportunity? Well, Carlisle

462
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: is not a buyer of crypto related companies, but I

463
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: would say generally the technology market is down thirty or

464
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 1: some of the leading companies from it's their peak. And therefore,

465
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: if you are a value investor or, if you want

466
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: to buy some things cheap now, it's probably a pretty

467
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: good time. The best time to buy things, obviously, is

468
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 1: when there's blood in the streets, as they say, and

469
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: right now in the technology where there has been blood

470
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: in the streets, and the crypto world has even been worse.

471
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: But I think if you're a value investor and you

472
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: really look at buying things cheaply, now it's probably a

473
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: pretty good time to invest in attack world. David Rubinstein,

474
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: it must take a moment here with critical headlines. F

475
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: A nine minutes, make it ten minutes ahead of schedule.

476
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: Federal Aviation Administration says normal air traffic operations are resuming

477
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 1: gradually across the United States. The ground stop has been

478
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 1: lifted that just moments ago from the FAA. Will look

479
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: for follow up and that is well, David, you have

480
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: public service in Washington. How is the f a A

481
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: treated in Washington. I mean, it's not the Pentagon, it's

482
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 1: not the State Department. But boys, it's something we use

483
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 1: each and every day. Well, the f A a UM

484
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: doesn't get as much money as it probably would like.

485
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: In the system of air traffic control, which is different

486
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: than the one we're talking about today, the overall air

487
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: traffic control system has taken a long time to fix

488
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: and make more modern. So I think the f a

489
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: A could use a lot more support from Congress, a

490
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: lot more support generally from the public in terms of

491
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 1: its need to modernize what it does. Remember the moment, David,

492
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 1: years ago where President Reagan made a splash by standing

493
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: up to union members up in towers trying to get

494
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: us to land our planes. Are we scarred still start

495
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 1: scarred from that moment forty some years ago? We're Ronald

496
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 1: Reagan said the flight controllers. No, you know, we're not

497
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: going to back down. Well, Tom, you and I might

498
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: be the only people old enough to remember that, but

499
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 1: that happened in the early nineties when there was a

500
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: strike at the at the air traffic controllers and and

501
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: President Reagan fired all the air traffic controllers. The system

502
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 1: continue to work. Um that system UH is now still

503
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: dated a bit, and we could use modernization. But I

504
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: don't see any strike in the in the in the future,

505
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: and I think that the way Ronald Reagan handled had

506
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: probably dealt with that problem for quite some time. David.

507
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: One final question in a statement, I guess on the

508
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: shift that we've seen at Bloomberg surveillance just in the

509
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 1: last four or five days, do you in Carlisle, with

510
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: all your resources, do you believe in a Chinese recovery

511
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 1: to five or six percent g d P, a renaissance

512
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: of the Pacific rim post pandemic. I think it's a

513
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: mistake to bet against the Chinese economy. Five or six

514
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: percent would be high growth because it's recovering, obviously from

515
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: the COVID situation. But I think counting out the Chinese

516
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 1: economy is always a mistake, and I think people have

517
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: underestimated the Chinese economy over the last thirty years have

518
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: generally found out that they were wrong. David, thank you

519
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: so much. This is going to be important. When they

520
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: filmed this with Mr Armstrong, it was supposed to be important,

521
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: but now it is ever more important. David Rubinstein with

522
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: Brian Armstrong of coin base, this is important. Paul Swenian,

523
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: Tim Keene. It was someone who not so much has

524
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: seen at all, but has a lot of the scars

525
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: of the up in the down. His name is Douglas Cass.

526
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: It was cea Breeze partners as well. Doug. Just as

527
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: a general question, sixty already went down in flames last year.

528
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: A bond market, we've never seen an equity market. Yes,

529
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: we've seen it, but pretty ugly as well. How does

530
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: Doug Cass pick up the pieces after the December thirty

531
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: one hangover? How do you what do you do on

532
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: January twond to regroup? Well? Uh, it was certainly a

533
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: non consensus year. UM. We entered last year with the

534
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: overriding consensus view that stocks would continue the game. To

535
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: say the least, that was incorrect. It was quite um

536
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: off mark. The overriding consensus as we entered this year

537
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 1: was that the stock declines would be extended, something I

538
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: disagree with. In my first surprise for UH and so I, UM,

539
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 1: I think that we have basically UM what I describe

540
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: as a chop bucket in to a surprisingly strong first

541
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: half a surprisingly weak second half. Do you invest with

542
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: certitude if you extend out your time frame? If your

543
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: new three week trade is three months, are your new

544
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: three months trade is twelve months? Does that help? Well?

545
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 1: I think the as I mentioned last time, as I

546
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: was on with you and Paul, that the game of

547
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: buying thirty stocks buying hold them forever, UM, going to

548
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: play golf, trying to get some more assets under management

549
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: with new prospects UM is over. UM. The game is changing.

550
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: It's what Howard Marks calls a sea change. Um, it's

551
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: a paradigm shift. We're trying to recover from the biggest

552
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: monetary bubble in modern history, and the unwind and transition

553
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: inequity prices and monetary policy as we expected at sea

554
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: Breeze came to pass. Last year has been painful for

555
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: most investors. UM I considered, I continue to see formidable

556
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 1: and still gray market on friendly factors at work. But

557
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: to quote Vince Scully when he was talking about my

558
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: cousin Sandy Kovax, is perfect game in nineteen sixty with

559
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: twelve months closer to approaching the promised land in which

560
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: we could buy great companies at great prices. But for

561
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: now we have a tempered view of three Um again,

562
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: enough first half, a down second half, because that's probably

563
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: my biggest surprise. That's my really my biggest surprise, and

564
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: that's and that is certainly not consensus. Dougus, you're I'm

565
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: sure you're you're well aware most people feel like we're

566
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: all kind of loading up for bear in the second

567
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: half of the year. Yeah, I think you know the

568
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 1: purpose of my surprise lists and the way I structure

569
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: our portfolios. You know, I get a bum wrap. I

570
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: get a wrap that I'm a short seller. In reality,

571
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: I'm a contrarian. And so right now most people are saying, hey,

572
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: interest rates will start to maybe peak, if not start

573
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: to come down in mid year, and that's when you

574
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: want to load up on risk assets, including stocks. But

575
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 1: you're kind of saying, I'm just at the the opposite, Paul.

576
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 1: I see a rapidly declining UM inflation rate visa v.

577
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: Consensus expectations. I even see some pressure off of wage inflation.

578
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: I see defensive positioning on the part of c t as,

579
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: retail and hedge funds, very negative sentiment UM, and on

580
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: the other hand, there are constraints to the upside. The

581
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: biggest market obstacle as I see it, UM is the

582
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: sea change towards higher interest rates. And to me, the

583
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: one of the market's biggest challenges is the current level

584
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: and difference of bond than NO yields relative to the

585
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 1: S and P divid and yield. That's one of the

586
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: most serious challenges and head wins to stocks, and it

587
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: helps to explain why I think the SMP will be

588
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: range bound, which will be a big super eyes between

589
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: thirty seven hundred, forty one hundred since we're thirty nine

590
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 1: hundred were basically um um muddled value UM. So I

591
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 1: see a number of restraints. On the up side, there's

592
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 1: a wide range of possible political, political, economic, and market

593
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: outcomes as well as financial conditions continue to ease. The

594
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: more fed, the Fed will talk tough um and act tough,

595
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: and that's another restraining influence. And I think there's a

596
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: nasty set up into late spring in Washington, d C.

597
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: With McCarthy speaker McCarthy's concessions to the right wing of

598
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: his party. And then I'm fascinated by your affinity at

599
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: times for Amazon over the years. Do you look at

600
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: the Amazons as the world is broken stocks? I mean,

601
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: this is profit making, ginormous cash on balance sheet tech.

602
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: Are they broken? I think all these companies UM. It

603
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: was originally thought, if you remember about six months ago,

604
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: when the Cathy Woods disruptive stocks were getting schmist down

605
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: in certain cases, that it would be restricted to the

606
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 1: non earning tech companies, But as it turns out, we

607
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: pushed forward sales, profits and cash flow, and even companies

608
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: like Alphabet and Amazon and Meta and so I think

609
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: it's a transition year for them if you're willing to.

610
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: You know, we ladder based upon time frames of our investments.

611
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: If you're a long term investor, I think Amazon um

612
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: should be in your portfolio. So, Doug, you've been at

613
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: this game a long time and you've witnessed, like many have,

614
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 1: the development the evolution of China both as a market

615
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 1: and as a source of goods and services. We've got

616
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 1: China reopening here, maybe faster than many people had expected.

617
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: That kind of surprised a lot of people over the

618
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: last month or so, which again that's in my surprise list.

619
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: Um Uh, China would reopen far sooner than expected also,

620
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: and this is coming to pass apparently in the next

621
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: couple of days, as consensus moves in this direction. That's

622
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: your Europe's economic woes won't be as bad as UM

623
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 1: originally surmised. Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I think the

624
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 1: you know, you take a look at some of the

625
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: European markets, and I know concern is out there for

626
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:29,240
Speaker 1: their recession, but you think you know, as I mentioned

627
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: um to both of you guys last week, I've been

628
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 1: emulating my my dear friend Byron Ween doing my surprise

629
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: list for twenty one years on the Streets Premium site

630
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 1: Real Money pro And the core reason I do this

631
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 1: list and look at things non consensus outcomes um is

632
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 1: really to seek, study, and embrace these low probability outcomes

633
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 1: that I believe have a higher probability of occurring than

634
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: the herd believes. And I think I think we learn

635
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: over the years. I least I have a number of

636
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: important core lessons which I've learned which formed the foundation

637
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 1: of the list. The first is that how wrong conventional

638
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,800
Speaker 1: wisdom can consistently be. The second is that uncertainty is

639
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: going to persist. Thirdly, to expect the unexpected. And fourth,

640
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: we seem to be seeing occurrences of black Swan events

641
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 1: growing with greater frequency. Hey, Doug, one of the biggest

642
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: stories in is Elon Musk. Do you have a surprise

643
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: for Elon Musk's storyline? Well, I had, I do, and

644
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: but the real Okay, I'll give you this first before

645
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: I talked about the surprise, I'll tell you what my

646
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: surprise was last year. My surprise that would was that

647
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 1: Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos would buy for the greatest

648
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: loss of personal wealth in any twelve month history and

649
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: that occurred to each lost between eighty and ninety billion

650
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,919
Speaker 1: dollars this year. One of my surprises is that Musk

651
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 1: reverses his decision to resign as CEO of Twitter, where

652
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: he engineers an amazing recovery in sales and profits, but

653
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: he resigns this position at Tesla as the company suffers

654
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: from a rapidly changing competitive landscape and boardening custom with

655
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 1: the satisfaction, and that Tesla shares trade under eighty dollars

656
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: a share. But Twitter has taken public and Musk's investment

657
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: in Twitter has made whole all right? Where are you

658
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 1: going to be? February twenty six? Are you going to

659
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 1: see the Atlanta Braves against the ginormous New York Yankees?

660
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 1: Thirty three days, fourteen hours, eleven minutes. There is seven

661
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 1: seconds to spring training. I look at the rotation. I mean,

662
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 1: are the Yankees this year? Is it finally Drysdale, co Fax,

663
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: Padres and Paranowski Paranowski in the bulleten? Yeah, But I

664
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: mean I'm looking at Carlo my my favorite picture on

665
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,720
Speaker 1: the planet, carl Us Road and good morning, Michael Gibbons.

666
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: Back with the Orioles. Carlos is pitching with Garrett, Well,

667
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: you know I also have I an emulating Byron Ween.

668
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 1: I also have five also ran surprises. In My second

669
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: surprise also ran surprise is that the New York Yankees

670
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: Orange Judge production didn't peak last year for the all

671
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: time single season home run record in And also it's

672
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: a Subway series games in the World cast out front

673
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: of the Subway Series goal away we were Red Sox

674
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: free there, Doug Cass of series partners, reminding me that, uh,

675
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 1: there could never be anything like the Dodgers of another time.

676
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join

677
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern. I'm

678
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six

679
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

680
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: and international relations US and subscribe to the Surveillance podcast

681
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course

682
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: on the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg