1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Brian Graduski. Happy 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: to have you all here on this Thursday episode of 3 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: the show. We are approaching or we are not approaching. 4 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: We are in the month of May. It is approaching. 5 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: High school graduations May in June, depending on what say 6 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: you live in. And the class of twenty twenty five 7 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: is special because I most probably don't know this. It 8 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: is the largest group of eighteen year olds in American history. 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: There was The peak year to be born was two 10 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: thousand and seven, which makes you about eighteen now, would 11 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: make you eighteen this year, which means you're probably graduating 12 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 1: high school. So four point three two million Americans were 13 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: born in year two thousand and seven. Most have lived 14 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: the eighteen seventeen years required to go to high school 15 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: and graduate without moving. Every class afterwards, every graduating class 16 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: for the next two decades at least will be smaller 17 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: than this one. This is the peak. How much smaller 18 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: is a great question. In twenty twenty two, there were 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: only three point six seven million people born in America. 20 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: That's about seventeen percent smaller than the class than the 21 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: population born in twenty and seven. In the class of 22 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, the class of twenty forty will be 23 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: seventeen percent smaller than the class of twenty twenty five, 24 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: just because people had fewer children. Two thousand and seven 25 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: was also the last year that America had a birth 26 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 1: rate of replacement level. To have a replacement level birth 27 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: rate for society, you need two point one children per woman. 28 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: That's the minimum amount, right, because it's usually two, but 29 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: not everyone makes it to adulthood, so it's two point one. 30 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: And there was a slight baby boom in two thousand 31 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: and six twousand and seven, and during this brief period 32 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: we had sustainable growth. If you want to go before then, 33 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: though the last one, we had real sustainable growth, real 34 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: sustainable growth from just people having children now from migration. 35 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: You have to go back to nineteen seventy one, which 36 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: is sixteen years before I was born. America's had chronically 37 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: low fertility rate and something too big concerned about because 38 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: if you have two few children and the population shrinks 39 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: over time, home value shrink, economy shrinks, schools closed, societies 40 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: become sadder and more depressed. It's what's inflicting a lot 41 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: of baby boomers now who find themselves that they're not grandparents. 42 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: There's no grandchildren. Millennials. Their millennial children who are in 43 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: their mid to late thirties and early forties never had kids, 44 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: and it's produced a lot of sadness of depression that 45 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: Your Times has written some brilliant pieces discussing this. And 46 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: the Trump administration is aware of this and they want 47 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: to do something about it. They want to make it 48 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: easier for people to have kids and to increase fertility. 49 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: So I'll pose the question to my audience, what would 50 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: it cost for you to have a baby or for 51 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: someone you know of fertility age to have a child, 52 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: or have another baby if you have one. According to 53 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: Your Times, several ideas are being floated. Some are reserving 54 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: thirty percent of full Bright scholarships to married applicants with children, 55 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: so that way there's more encouragement for people to have 56 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: kids to go and pursue higher degrees. Another idea was 57 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 1: a five thousand dollars cash baby Bowman Is to every 58 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: American mother after delivery. Another idea was to make hospitalization 59 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: free during pregnancy and delivery or guests government subsidize. Now, 60 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 1: these are just all ideas. There's no specific bill being proposed, 61 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: and not all These ideas are very original because most 62 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: of the developed world has suffered from low birth rates 63 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: for a very very long time, and they've tried a 64 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: multitude of different solutions to try to answer this. Women 65 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: in Hungary who have four or more children a or 66 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: exam from income tax for life. In South Korea, private 67 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: companies give bonuses to workers who have kids, and in 68 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: Poland they have some version of universal basic income for 69 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: people with children. And some of these places have had 70 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: some good results, some limited impacts. Fun In fact, the 71 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: only nation to a seismic change in fertility rates in 72 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: the modern era is the nation of Georgia, and that's 73 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: only because it only reversed to have positive fertility levels 74 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: after having below replacement because the Georgian Orthodox patriarch, Patriarch 75 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: Ela the second I announced he was going to personally 76 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: baptize everyone's third child third or more so, he personally 77 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: baptized thirty thousand children in a very small country, and 78 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: the fertility rate increased from one point five to nine 79 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: children per woman in two thousand and four to two 80 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: point two in twenty sixteen. I guess the idea of 81 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 1: taking a selfie with the patriarch was enough to entice 82 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: millennials to have kids. If Kim Kardashian offered the same proposal, 83 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'd see a baby boom. I mean, it's 84 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: just maybe if the next pope does that, we'll see 85 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: something going on. In Italy, there are I guess, wastes 86 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: that they're incentivized in some capacity outside just giving money. 87 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: And it's not just places in Europe and East Asia 88 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: which are a low fertility levels, and they've had them 89 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: for decades, I mean parts of year. We're going back 90 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: to the nineteen sixties and fifties where they've had replacement 91 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: level birth rates below replacement levels. Countries that you think 92 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: have enormous population booms lots of kids do not. They 93 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: used to a long time ago, but they don't anymore. India, China, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, 94 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Colombia all have ertiliy 95 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: rates below replacement levels every one of these nations. Generations 96 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: are getting smaller over time, and that's why many people 97 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: in America anyway and in Western Europe have argued, well, 98 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: we can't get people to have kids, so what are 99 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: we gonna do. We're just gonna impoor people. But it's 100 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: not that simple. You cannot just interchange people through mass immigration. 101 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: Germany try this, and over a decade ago they imported 102 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: millions of Syrians and Afghans with the promise that they'll 103 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: be as productive as natural born Germans in no time 104 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: at all. Well, here we are a decade later, and 105 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: according to the Wall Street Journal, they're suffering from a 106 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: massive worker shortage. But how how do you have a 107 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: worker shortage when Angela Marko kicked the doors open for 108 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: your country to the almost basically the whole Third World. 109 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: Because while over sixty five percent of natural born Germans 110 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: and native Germans have a job and we're going to 111 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: contributor to society, the same is only true for a 112 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: third of Afghans and Syrians. They don't have the same 113 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: education level they do on the same work level. They're 114 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: just not German. People are not interchangeable. And you need 115 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: to understand that high performing, high IQ societies need children 116 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: to innovate, to grow, to produce, to have economic booms. 117 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: It's why Elon Musk has been so worried about the 118 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: chronicle low birth rates and developed countries. And I don't 119 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: believe what we should do what Elon Musk is doing, 120 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: trying to have, you know, ten thousand kids with millions 121 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: of different cockumines all across the world. That's not the answer, 122 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: but there is an answer to it, and all countries 123 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: aren't the same. Places like Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, South 124 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: Korea and China, for example, they're in dire straits like 125 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: they're in a place where it is incurable in the 126 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: near future, their population is going to have a massive 127 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 1: decline and there's nothing at this point they could do 128 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: about it. In our own hemisphere, Puerto Rico has such 129 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: extremely low birth rates and such high domestic migration that 130 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: is one of the fastest shrinking places as far as 131 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: population on Earth. Their population today is as low as 132 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: it was in nineteen eighty. China, our largest global adversary 133 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: in the world, is losing two million people per year. 134 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: That's two million per year. They're going to lose one 135 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: hundred million over the next twenty years and five hundred 136 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: million over the next seventy five years. How do you 137 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: fix a problem like that. You have to reverse in 138 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: an immense way. When you put that into a calculation 139 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: in seventy five years, which is not that long ago. Truly, 140 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: there are people alive that are seventy five years old 141 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: and above seventy five years you're talking about they had 142 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: homes for one point four billion people, and now they 143 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: only have eight hundred million. Who is going to live 144 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: in all those empty homes? What will happen to those 145 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: property values, What will happen to those schools? Who will 146 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: take care of those seniors, who will work? I mean, 147 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: maybe we'll have rows of the robot do it in 148 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: everyone's house is but I still think you're probably going 149 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: to need people to a certain extent. And that's just China. 150 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: In the epidemic of low birth rates is in every 151 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: corner of the world outside of Israel, several Islamic states, 152 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: and most parts of Africa, and even in Africa they're 153 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: having population decline. People seem to think that this is 154 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: low fertility is only like a white issue or an 155 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: Asian issue, European and Asians because they've suffered from the longest. 156 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 1: In America, that is not sure at all. In twenty 157 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: twenty four was the first year and record that black 158 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: women actually had a lower fertility rate than white women. 159 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: Black women had one point five one eight children per woman. 160 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: White women had one point five three five. And while 161 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: Hispanics had a baby boom and part because of Joe 162 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: Biden's open border policy, and they also failed to reach 163 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: fertility level above replacement. They're sticking at one point nine 164 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: to eight and it's going to decline next year. And 165 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: while there are a few states that have normally like 166 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 1: higher forertillity levels than others, the Dakota's have pretty high 167 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: up fertil levels, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska, there's not many. 168 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: Many suffer from huge blights of very few children. And 169 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: you're going to see the problem of school closures and 170 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: this problem of what do you do in societies with 171 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: don't have kids. You can't just import everyone in the 172 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: world to come here and expect them to expect America 173 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: to be America, like it didn't work in Germany, like 174 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: it won't work in other parts of the world. Government's 175 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: policies have to start thinking about how they facilitate economies 176 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: and housing policies and cultural policies that promote childbearing. So 177 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: I asked the question again, what would it cost for 178 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: the government to entice you or some some one you 179 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: know of child bearing years to have a baby that's 180 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 1: the ultimate question that many governments around the world will 181 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: be facing the century. We have on two guests next 182 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,959 Speaker 1: discuss these policies, what are and aren't working, and what 183 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 1: this all means for our nation and the world's fertility. 184 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: Up next, Okay, on this week's episode, this Thursday episode 185 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: of Numbers Game, we have on two very brilliant guests 186 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: who know a ton about the subject, the versus crameu 187 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: rey Q. He is a writer on demographics and fertility. 188 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 1: You can read his blog at cramew c r E 189 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: m I u X dot x y z. And then 190 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: Daniel has writes for a blog called Moorebirths dot com, which, 191 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: as you can guess, looks at birth and data and fertility. 192 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: And I'm excited for having them both here. So I'm 193 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: gonna start with Daniel first. Daniel, and I'll ask the 194 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: same question to Krew. Daniel first, question, why aren't Americans 195 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: having as many children as they used to and also 196 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: as many they desire? Because most polls show that Americans 197 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: want to have more kids, They just don't. 198 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's there's there's a bunch of factors and one 199 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 2: thing that you quickly understand when you study fertility and 200 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 2: birth rates is that it is multi factored, but uh, 201 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 2: the biggest one is marriage rates have have plummeted dramatically. 202 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 2: Birth control has gotten very good, so so actually, ironically 203 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: marriage matters more than before because people are much more 204 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 2: able to avoid pregnancy unless conditions are basically perfect. So 205 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: that usually means long term, committed relationship, usually means completed education, 206 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: being established, especially for young men in good work and 207 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 2: so forth. So the list of requirements has has shot up, 208 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 2: and people are taking longer and longer to sort of 209 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 2: establish themselves, and marriage rates have plummeted, so so conditioned 210 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 2: just not yeah. 211 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: And I think Cameron asked this ques you because maybe 212 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: you know this. There is this a lot of times 213 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: when it comes to fertility information. There's a lot of 214 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: things in people's minds that were true many decades ago 215 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: but are no longer true. For instance, you know the 216 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: idea that Puerto Ricans have tons of babies, when in 217 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: fact they have actually one of the lowest birth rates 218 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: in the whole world. Why is it that? Why is 219 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: it that it used to be where low income people 220 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: had a ton of kids and higher income people had 221 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: relatively few, and now it's actually vice versa from data 222 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: the eyebread, whereas actually lower income people do actually have 223 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: fewer children than before. Is that correct as it might not? 224 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's actually correct in many countries, but not in 225 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 3: all of them. There are For example, Sweden's one of 226 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 3: the earliest countries to make this transition towards a positive 227 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 3: fertility by income gradient. And the major compositional reason for 228 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 3: this gradient shift is that the number of unintended births 229 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 3: has declined. He never done into the berths for the 230 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: source of births for people in employees, the lowest income 231 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 3: brackets for a very long time. As they've cultivated, as 232 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 3: we've gotten better healthcare, as we've improved the quality of 233 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 3: birth control and well not many things more mivigeable, it's 234 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 3: become possible for the fewer of those only to the 235 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 3: births white. Whereas people who are you know, getting married 236 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 3: and whatnot, they are often wanting to have kids, so 237 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 3: they will end up having those kids today. Try shifted 238 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 3: things around of the years. 239 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: Well, and it's so funny because the story of declining 240 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: birth rates within the two thousands and the twenty tens 241 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: is the story really of teenage pregnancy in part stopping 242 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: I mean that's part of that's a big part of 243 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: the story is that teenagel agancy decreased substantially. It's also 244 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: that you know, people are having as as many families 245 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: with only one child as they used to. That's been 246 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: pretty flat. It's just more people. We're having no kids period. 247 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: Is that correct? 248 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 3: Since about two the number of teenage pregnancies has declined 249 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 3: pretty precipitously. It was declining beforehand, but it would going 250 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 3: down the law faster afterwards. And yeah, the number of 251 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 3: childish people has got up great baths, like in terms 252 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 3: of people being able to pay off because when they 253 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 3: pay off, it didn't have the kids. If they don't 254 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 3: pay off old and they don't have the kids, that 255 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 3: seems to be going towards Daniel. 256 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: Is that is that your research goes well. 257 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 2: You know, that's yeah, that's that's quite accurate. Cremuwa is 258 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 2: quite quite correct. But yeah, your your your your fertility 259 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 2: rate has been dropping at every age up to age 260 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 2: thirty five is the latest. So it's you're you're delaying 261 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 2: and delaying and delaying so much that you know it 262 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: was it's even it's even gotten into into the thirties. 263 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: So it's it's only thirty five and above above that 264 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 2: fertility is actually increasing now. 265 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: Is that because of like ivy AF and other drugs. 266 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 3: Yeah. 267 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 2: Well, also, people are just finally getting around to getting 268 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 2: married and wanting to start a family, you know, in 269 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 2: their thirties, sometimes in their mid thirties. But by that 270 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: time you're pushing up against, uh, some of the limits 271 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: of biological fertility, so so people cannot People are just 272 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: starting so late. 273 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: Right. I go between two things. One is that I'm 274 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: a millennial. I'm thirty. I just turned thirty eight on Tuesday. 275 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: That's Tuesday. So I have a lot of friends of 276 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: mine who are women who are in my age range 277 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: where I've went to high school with, who are now 278 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: at a frantic pace saying I have to get pregnant now. 279 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: They they were sold on the idea that they had 280 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: way more time than they actually had, that they could 281 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: spend a decade or so chasing guys who were never 282 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: interested in them, and it just frankly and things just 283 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: didn't work out. There were some health issues and they're 284 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: in a separate bucket and other ones. But I've noticed 285 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: that substantially the people were kind of lied to. But 286 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: how much time they have really And my friend Megan 287 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: McCain said to me one time, if you're a woman 288 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: and you're spos having kids, you need to take your 289 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: fertility as serious as you take your job. 290 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point. And I call this the 291 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: kind of the lowest hanging fruit is awareness about fertility 292 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 2: and you know, trying to you know, educate people to 293 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 2: start much much younger than they are because that you know, 294 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 2: you said it exactly, people are you know, delaying so 295 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 2: much and that they are at a frantic point in 296 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: their late thirties. By that, some people will will succeed, 297 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 2: some people will have the families that they want to have. 298 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 2: A lot won't. So it shouldn't change one thing that's 299 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 2: you know, your easiest thing, the thing that you that 300 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 2: that's probably the most amenable to you know, to change 301 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 2: is simply awareness. I mean, in high schools, people should 302 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 2: be having education about the fertility window, which is actually fertility, 303 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 2: the ability to get pregnant actually peaks in the early twenties. 304 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 2: It's and it's going down, you know, all throughout the 305 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 2: twenties into the thirties. It's much earlier than anybody realizes. 306 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: Right, I mean, because everyone will see a celebrity getting 307 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: pregnant at forty and saying, oh, that could be me, 308 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: you know, and not everyone is Megan Kelly who had 309 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: her first kid I think at forty or forty one, 310 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: and good for her. But not everyone's like that, Carimea. 311 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: If you were with now, President Trump has been floating ideas. 312 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: He hasn't had a concrete policy on how to increase utility. 313 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: There has been everything from five thousand dollars cash bonuses 314 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 1: to having having classes on fertility and other things about childcare, 315 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: or taking Social Security money out for a longer, longer 316 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: maternity leaves. If you were with in front of the 317 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: president or his administration, what is an effective policy that 318 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: has been tried that actually increases fertility levels? 319 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, so when they order to return to you for more, 320 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 3: that was would you guys just talk to them? This 321 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 3: is the Tipo effect where people like fertility is reduced 322 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 3: to some period because people are delaying longer. If you 323 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 3: want to fight the typical effect, you get fighting on 324 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 3: the front end by cutting down. This is something they 325 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 3: can do cutting down on high school graduation agents because 326 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 3: you can get people out of high school at age sixteen. 327 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 3: He allow them to go to college of six and 328 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 3: start having them start their adult lives earlier, giving them 329 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 3: agicial time to find a partner as an adult, find 330 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 3: a partner of accomplished person to become accomplished earlier in life. 331 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 3: She can gain back a few years and you can't 332 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 3: extend your fertility. Does you can have more kids in 333 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 3: that window. That is something they could immediately do. They 334 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 3: have the power to do it. Have the power to 335 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 3: encourage acceleration at school, so people can do that even 336 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 3: more readily than were able. Somebody who is capable of 337 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 3: going to college at twelve but is held back because 338 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 3: the system is very slow, could be doing that. They 339 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 3: could start their adult life much earlier, give them a 340 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 3: lot more time to do whatever. 341 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: Wow, I never wanted to. I never actually thought about before. 342 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: There was a book called Generations. I can't remember the 343 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: end of the author. It's a very it's a very 344 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 1: data heavy book, and it was about how people nowadays 345 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:52,239 Speaker 1: have the life experience, the very delayed life experiences. So 346 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: someone of thirty years now would have had the same 347 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: experience as someone who who was twenty years old maybe 348 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 1: thirty years ago. And you're saying that that is if 349 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: we were to accelerate the high school experience and accelerate 350 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: the schooling experience and get kids to graduate at sixteen 351 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 1: instead of eighteen. That would help propel their life in general. 352 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: So I've never heard of before, honestly, but it sounds interesting. 353 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 3: Son in Germany have done these reforms at certain regions 354 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 3: and they have not resulted in any loss in academic achievement. 355 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 3: They have resulted in people entering the workforce earlier. They've 356 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 3: resulted in slight income increases for people who graduate younger. 357 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 3: It's just been all around pretty good without any apparent downside. 358 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 3: So I think the family information is exactly pretty positive 359 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 3: and pretty easy to implem into. It costes nothing to 360 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 3: centric to school for less time. 361 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: Wow, Daniel, what were you going to say? 362 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 2: No, I strongly agree that is an outstanding point. We 363 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 2: were in full agreement on that actually, and another point 364 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 2: I think Krimia has probably made this at some point 365 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: in his writing, but as well. It is the idea 366 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 2: that you can give people tests to show their competency, 367 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 2: you know, so maybe you know, instead of you know, 368 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 2: somebody getting their PhD at the age of thirty two, 369 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 2: maybe they can, you know, show their college competency at 370 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: the age of twenty show their PhD competency at the 371 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 2: age of twenty three. They can be often running with 372 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 2: their life at the age of twenty four instead of 373 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 2: at the age of thirty five like it is for 374 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 2: postdocs these days. So so we know that fertility is 375 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 2: much lower for people that have high education. But the 376 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: reason for that mainly is that all these years, the 377 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 2: most fertile years, are consumed by education when they do 378 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 2: not need to be. And if people can show their 379 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 2: competency much sooner, then they can they can really you know, 380 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 2: that they can really change the whole ballgame and enjoy 381 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 2: income and start their lives, you know, start having families 382 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 2: in their twenties, and that that would be a dramatic 383 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: paradigm shift that would let people realize the fertility that 384 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 2: they would like to have. 385 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: So so it's funny because last year, and I'm sure 386 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: I read it fertility all the time on Twitter. That's 387 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: why I found both of you guys. I read both 388 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: of your Twitter is pretty franqulently. In twenty twenty four, the 389 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: two countries that had minor baby booms but significant enough 390 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: were South Korea and Norway. They had decent upshots in 391 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: a year that most of the world's fertility dropped pretty substantially. 392 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: You know, nations like hungry offers. You know, I think 393 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 1: it's no income tax if you have four children or more. 394 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: There's other cash benefits from some countries. I know in 395 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: South Korea, companies are now handing out cash bonuses. Do 396 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: any of those cash bonus policies work? And I guess 397 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: because they all all these countries have fairly low fertility 398 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: raise well. 399 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 2: I think they work. And I think one very important 400 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 2: point is that you need to try things. You need 401 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 2: to the idea that you know, our mutual friend Limanstone 402 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: has a saying we've tried absolutely nothing and nothing works. 403 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 3: You know. 404 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 2: The point being is that is that people only learned 405 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 2: just yesterday that there even is a fertility crisis, and 406 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 2: now like you're talking like two minutes later, you're you're 407 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: going to declare the problem hopeless. You know, you actually 408 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,360 Speaker 2: have to make effort. And I think a wonderful example 409 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 2: to my mind of a country that has, you know, 410 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 2: made very long running effort and has been very successful 411 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 2: actually is Israel. Israel has always tried many, many things 412 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 2: all the time. You know, for for the last fifty 413 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 2: sixty years, you know, to be pronatal. And uh, you know, 414 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 2: it's not an accident that they have high fertility. They have. 415 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 2: It has been on their mind. They have been, you know, 416 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 2: focusing on it for longer than any you know, any 417 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 2: major country. 418 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: Maybe because before before we go to you two questions 419 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: on Israel then is it is it one because their 420 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: national identity is such a part of their core that 421 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: gives them meaning to want to have kids. And secondly, 422 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: I forget someone told me this once. Part of the 423 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,679 Speaker 1: reason Israel has a highigh fertility rate is because Israel 424 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 1: has a high fertility rate in the sense that because 425 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: your friends have kids, you have kids. It's more, it's 426 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: not socially weird to have a child in your early twenties. 427 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: In America, if a girl announced she was getting married 428 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: at twenty one, someone would say, is everything okay with you? 429 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: Or are you being conditioned to do this? And because 430 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,199 Speaker 1: the social pressures to not get married young are so 431 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: heavy in the West and the United States and Canada 432 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: and whatnot, and they're not present Israel, that's part of 433 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: the reason as well. Is that true at all? 434 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 2: The cross cultural thing, you know, the shared culture is 435 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 2: part of it, and certainly the Orthodox population that culture 436 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 2: is bleeding out into the rest of Israel in the 437 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 2: sense that they're normalizing, you know, high fertility in early marriages, 438 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 2: so that impacts the others. But also we have to 439 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 2: remember as well that you know, the founders of Israel, 440 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 2: like David Ben Gurion and gold in my ear, were 441 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: extremely directly you know, they directly told people, please, everybody 442 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 2: have a lot of kids, and that with the sense 443 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 2: of national identity really, you know, is something that israelis 444 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 2: really believed in part, you know, the national cause is 445 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 2: having children, you know, in some sense. 446 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's just Russia is very highly nationalistic as well, 447 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 1: and Putin is begging people to have kids and no 448 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: one's doing it. So it's just it's very interesting. So Krime, 449 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: what were you going to say about about that? As 450 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 1: far as as far as policies go, and do cash 451 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: bonuses work or anything, I will see. 452 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 3: The cash fuguses work quite well, with extensive us on 453 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 3: this from a ton of different countries. Cash bonus has 454 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 3: actually seen to be the reason for Mongolia has rebound 455 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 3: from slightly but low replace of fertility to quote above 456 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 3: it and they've worked incredibly well. Maybe skid of universal 457 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 3: cash transfers the whole amazing way. I will say on 458 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 3: the Israel subject, most heredeem are not friends with fling 459 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 3: him and vice versa. The friend groups tend to be 460 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,639 Speaker 3: quite insular. So if you're gonna mix across these like 461 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 3: eye fertility and low fertility, check to see a lot 462 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 3: about it. So I don't think that's actually amazing major 463 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 3: a reason for the fertiliar rate. 464 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: In Israel and Israel even even secular people have a 465 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: lot of kids. Everyone has a lot of kids, No, No, 466 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: the countries they do relative to like secular people in America. 467 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 3: They do so sure, but it's still a big struggle 468 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 3: and it's a common topic of like a little bit 469 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 3: of grievance there and as well. But we're often talking 470 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,479 Speaker 3: about what are we gonna do when the future is 471 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 3: mostly already or like that, and everything like that, and 472 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 3: it's just not be able to be held up by 473 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 3: the name that systemically held with the country. Now, I 474 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 3: will say, Field doesn't have a lot of good policy 475 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 3: that is very very pro family. I do think Israel 476 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 3: has a good number of pro family policies. Some of 477 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 3: the protect like oh pre technological like few can get 478 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 3: two kids through IVF before age forty five. That is 479 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 3: a universal benefit that is quite good, that allows people 480 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 3: to have to use the struggle with fertility. There's a 481 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 3: lot of focus on fertility. You might have seen some 482 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 3: of the pocket and focused on fertility for deceeized soldiers 483 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 3: where their sperm was electric other testicles there found dead 484 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 3: and then it was used to a friend their wives. Like, 485 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,479 Speaker 3: there's a huge, huge focus on fertility in that respect 486 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 3: and keeping families alive and all that is. That's one 487 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 3: of the highest woods in terms of Polish. 488 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 1: I did not know any of those things. That's really wild. 489 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: I did not. Wow, that's that is being very pro family. 490 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: I have a someone wrote this in an article a 491 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago and it's stuck with me ever since. 492 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 1: And they said to me that they send the article 493 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 1: on to me, but they send the article that the 494 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: ultimate problem is we separated retirement government subsized retirement, which 495 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: is paid for by children with child bearing. So in 496 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: the sense that you work today for retirees of today 497 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: and your children will work for you, but there's no 498 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,199 Speaker 1: requirement to have kids. And that has That is what 499 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: a lot of Western countries' problems with the wealth fair 500 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: state welfare dependency child bearing? Is that separation of retirement 501 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: to child bearing. Do you agree with that? Oh, there is. 502 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 3: Something to it. I do believe it would be great 503 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 3: if we reformed ocial sinciurity around having kids. Robert Hanson 504 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 3: has a wonderful proposal for this, where you get a 505 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 3: transferable tax portion from your kids they grow up. So, 506 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 3: for example, each year, if your kid earns one hundred 507 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,479 Speaker 3: thousand dollars and they're payable, taxes are ten percent of that, 508 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 3: then you might get a quarter of that ten percent 509 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 3: you get to go ahead and that could be a 510 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 3: wonderful benefit. That could encourage you to promote your own 511 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 3: kids productivity. If you get a grand it's a bit offit, 512 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 3: then you could take a portion of the benefits from 513 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 3: beer kids and so on and so forth. That could 514 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 3: be wonderful and reform. It wouldn't hold people who don't 515 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 3: have kids out of the retirement system because you could 516 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 3: Robin's schemes sell that license to your kids, you know, 517 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 3: future taxes and whatnot. That could work great. I don't know, 518 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,959 Speaker 3: I didity even possible. That very hard to manage these 519 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 3: things because people really really want to protect some of security. 520 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 3: It's kind of form and even if it's not going 521 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 3: to bene them, it's uh just not good. Yeah, in 522 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,439 Speaker 3: is well, the old age pensions are not for a 523 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 3: good either. They're very very small and the basic pension 524 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 3: is only about eighteen hundred chuckles, which is like, h. 525 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: Dane, what do you think about all that idea? 526 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean one thing that we have to understand, 527 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 2: you know, kind of is kind of the financial situation 528 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 2: of people in their twenties, of young people. So we 529 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 2: you know, people are like, oh, society has never been richer, 530 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 2: like why are people having fewer children? But the actual 531 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 2: actually if you look at kind of the age distribution, uh, 532 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 2: you know, are you know, financial strength is overwhelmingly you know, 533 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 2: correlated with increasing age. So young people are having a 534 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: brutal time often trying to buy a house or trying 535 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 2: to get established. And meanwhile, you know, for example, if 536 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 2: you look at houses, you know, something that's incredibly important 537 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 2: in terms of uh natalism, in terms of people having 538 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 2: a family is having having a house, especially a house 539 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 2: with a yard, and single family homes are overwhelmingly owned 540 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,719 Speaker 2: by baby boomers and millennials and gen Z who are 541 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 2: the ones who are who need to be having children 542 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 2: right now have a much own a much smaller share 543 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 2: of houses. And you know, there's this this huge wealth disparity. Uh. 544 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 2: And actually, if you look at how transfer payments tend 545 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: to work in this country, they you know, young people 546 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 2: are paying taxes, you know, toward older people on on 547 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 2: net on average, and and yet older people actually have 548 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 2: a great deal more wealth than younger people. So that's 549 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 2: actually a very regressive tax. You're actually taxing in a 550 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 2: sense when you're taxing young people to pay for the old, 551 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 2: you're taxing the poor to pay for the rich. 552 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: So so that's what What role does immigration play in 553 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: all of this? Because there is obviously a fixed number 554 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: of housing in a year, they have to build more 555 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 1: of it. It takes time. Immigrants need a place to live, 556 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 1: and they the comment in the media and among establishment 557 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: politicians a lot of times as well, we could fix 558 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 1: any issue when it comes to birthing with just bringing 559 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 1: more immigrants in. But it seems that not only do 560 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: Americans were not even just Americans, Brits Canadians when they're 561 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: influx immigrants, only do they have fewer children than the 562 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 1: immigrants themselves also have fewer children. Is an underlying societal 563 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 1: problem or is it just one or two cultural things? 564 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 2: Daniel, Well, there is a problem if your immigration is 565 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 2: outrunning your housing stock. I mean, if you you know, 566 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 2: the perfect example of where this happened is Canada. Canada's 567 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 2: single family home is like a million dollars. Yeah, and 568 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 2: you know, and it's cold too, right, So, but a 569 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 2: single family home is like, you know, it's just completely 570 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 2: out of reach of you know, anybody under forty in Canada. 571 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: And so the birth rate in Canada has just been 572 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 2: falling like a rock to like Japanese levels, you know. 573 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 2: So it so. And then there's another problem with that 574 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 2: because Canada has been trying to solve its housing by 575 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 2: erecting these high rise towers of very small apartments. And 576 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 2: you know, if you look around the world, the lowest 577 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 2: fertility that you find anywhere in the world is in 578 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 2: these metropolis is you know, like in Shanghai or Soul 579 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 2: or places like this, where everybody lives in a high 580 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 2: rise apartment tower. You know, in places where people live 581 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 2: in tiny apartments and towers, you know, you can get 582 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 2: fertility of you know, zero point seven point six point 583 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 2: five just insanely low levels. So if Canada ends up 584 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 2: with a housing shortage, you know, from from having more 585 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 2: immigration than they can handle, and then they turn around 586 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: and try to solve it by building high rise apartment towers, 587 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 2: they're making the problem much much worse. 588 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a question for you. This is kind 589 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 1: of we're going to wrap it. I'm on this question, 590 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: but on this topic, but like, what is religion? What 591 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: role does religion play in it? So I talked about 592 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,720 Speaker 1: this in the beginning of the hour. One of the 593 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: only countries to solve below replacement fertillity levels was Georgia. 594 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: The nation of Georgia, when their patriarch decided he was 595 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: going to personally baptize every third child in the country. 596 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: And when that happened, the birth rate went from one 597 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 1: point five to nine to like two point two over 598 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 1: a course of six years. Because my fellow millennials were like, great, 599 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 1: I get a selfie with the patriarch if they baptized 600 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 1: my kid, this is going to be fantastic, and they 601 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: wanted to have a third baby because of that. Do 602 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 1: you have in America? Specifically in America, you have subset 603 00:32:53,440 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 1: religions like Orthodox Jews or Hasthitic Jews, Amish, some branches 604 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: of Mormonism but very very few. Some Latin Mass Catholics 605 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: but very very few, who have extraordinarily high fertility levels. 606 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,479 Speaker 1: But the average American being less religious, seems to also 607 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: than how complicate fertility levels is? It? Is it that simple? 608 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: Just a marriage of religion and children, Like, if you 609 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 1: don't have high religioussity, you're not going to have a 610 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 1: lot of kids. 611 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 3: I'd go to the housing thing real quick, you wish, Yeah, sure, 612 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 3: not all countries a dude, like than real projects for 613 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,760 Speaker 3: failing it like having it go together with fertility is 614 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 3: reel is actually a good example. I wanted to mention 615 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 3: them before because they have a very pro family housing 616 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 3: policy that allows them aults in their cities considerably. There 617 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 3: have these two urban rule programs what is the vacum 618 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 3: to be built and the other one is telling with 619 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 3: and they allow you to basically all in with everyone 620 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 3: around you to do sort of urban renewal where if 621 00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 3: you get your neighbors to approve of you building something 622 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 3: large your space or with some of them, then you 623 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 3: can go ahead and do that. And you can build 624 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 3: large condominiums with like four or five rooms, and these 625 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 3: can be great for a family. They're not just they 626 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:11,760 Speaker 3: could be. They look like a high rise at times, 627 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 3: they can look much much larger. They're generally higher quality 628 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 3: than the old Star because if those programs allowed to 629 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 3: replace buildings built before the nineteen eighties whenever they were 630 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 3: just trying to build as much as they could to 631 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 3: account for the influx of people. And these programs have 632 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,320 Speaker 3: been tremendous, Like in the areas where people are allowed 633 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 3: to do them, if you see a traditional family, like 634 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,799 Speaker 3: a sort of family who uses the program, they will 635 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 3: tend to get a lot more floor space, and they'll 636 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 3: tend to have kids right after they get their bills done. 637 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 3: It tends to be a very very good program for 638 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,200 Speaker 3: increasing the density as. 639 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 1: Well as modern architecture specifically in Israel, really reflects that 640 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 1: that complements the family versus like a lot of really 641 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 1: crappy architecture in you know, especially in New York where 642 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,920 Speaker 1: I am, where it's literally like as it's open. They 643 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 1: just care have an open floor plan, and that's basically 644 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: all it is. It's just for one it's basically for 645 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 1: a single couple with either one child or no children. 646 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,160 Speaker 1: Everyone needs a home office now, so basically one child 647 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 1: or no children. That's an interesting point. Does religion play 648 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:15,959 Speaker 1: a pardon it though? 649 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:16,919 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, sure can't. 650 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 3: Actually, it's funny. This program can be very much compliment 651 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 3: about religion. You will often see communities where people share 652 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 3: the same sort of strict religious backgrounds coming together to 653 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 3: get these housing things done together like they a traditional 654 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 3: community might see like, oh, you know, I have seven kids, 655 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,680 Speaker 3: I need a few more bedrooms around might be more 656 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 3: meanable to agree to allow that person to up zode 657 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 3: to build a bigger home in that area, more condominiums, 658 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,760 Speaker 3: build more apartments, bill more of whatever, and the girls 659 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,800 Speaker 3: are used the proceeds for like building more apartments to 660 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,439 Speaker 3: you know, funds their lifestyle and they're having more kids 661 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 3: and whatnot. Yeah, I think you seeks doctell very well. 662 00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:53,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. 663 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 3: I think generally you will see in less religious communities 664 00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 3: a less agreement of zone because work less red lead 665 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 3: ready agreement because there are a fewer religious fonds to 666 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 3: think of. Those woligious bonds help people too, you know, 667 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,000 Speaker 3: make the decision to allow somebody to build something there, 668 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 3: which is kind of nice. It speaks poorly to the 669 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 3: ability to do this in places that are less religious, 670 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,360 Speaker 3: because if they don't have those sorts of common reasons 671 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 3: to agree, like oh, all over their needs a big 672 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 3: are hole. We should allow all devoted in your own 673 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:25,880 Speaker 3: If you do it in San Francisco, I don't think 674 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 3: you're going to have a religious part of that, and 675 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 3: you're going to see a lot less agreement. 676 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,520 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean that you can barely build anything 677 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: at all. You know, in America specifically, you have these, 678 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: as they said before, these minor communities like Casidic Jews 679 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,359 Speaker 1: and or Amish, and some Latin mask Catholic, some sects 680 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 1: of Mormonism that still have large, large families. But as 681 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 1: a whole, you don't is our future destined to be 682 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:57,280 Speaker 1: where you know, we have Hasidic Jewish or Amish states 683 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 1: And that's kind of the who's going to be are 684 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 1: more of our children? You know, well fifty years down line? 685 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's no question that h that for 686 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 2: fertility of religious people has held up much much more 687 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,280 Speaker 2: than it has for secular people. There was a wonderful 688 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 2: talk h actually at the at the Natalism conference by 689 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 2: my friend, professor Catherine Paccolic. 690 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:26,720 Speaker 1: We had her on this podcast. 691 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,719 Speaker 2: A wonderful, wonderful. Yeah. So her point really is that, 692 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:34,720 Speaker 2: you know, we have gotten to the point where people 693 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 2: don't really have children, They don't really have to have 694 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 2: children unless they have a reason to. So you need 695 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,720 Speaker 2: a sort of an ideological basis or a philosophical basis. 696 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 2: And it doesn't have to come from religion, but most 697 00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,880 Speaker 2: often in the world today it does, especially since I 698 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 2: think the culture, the broader culture is not pronatal, is 699 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 2: not you know, people are not encouraged, uh, you know, 700 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,920 Speaker 2: to have children, and it's not a strong part of 701 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,840 Speaker 2: the culture. But within these these subcultures, you know, whether 702 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:17,600 Speaker 2: it be Orthodox Catholics like uh, like Catherine Pacolic or or. 703 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 1: Saint Mary's Kansas, which is a small Latin mass town 704 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 1: in Kansas but has lots more children anywhere around it. 705 00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,840 Speaker 2: Sure, sure, sure, Or it can be you know, the 706 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:34,000 Speaker 2: Amish or almost any community you you have, you have 707 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 2: you know, sort of Protestant Christian communities that are that 708 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 2: are like that as well. But but really somewhere I 709 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 2: think you have to have an ideological basis or reason 710 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 2: a belief system that values that and and encourages that 711 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,920 Speaker 2: and unites people around that as a vision, because without 712 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:57,440 Speaker 2: without that, it really looks like uh, you know, and 713 00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,800 Speaker 2: we can also learn from it. I really do believe 714 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,279 Speaker 2: that broader culture can can orient itself to to to 715 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,319 Speaker 2: elevate the value of having children more highly uh than 716 00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:11,640 Speaker 2: it than it does. But certainly, certainly religious communities seem 717 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:13,400 Speaker 2: to be like the only ones that are doing that 718 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,680 Speaker 2: comprehensively in the world right now. So so they're the 719 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 2: only ones really having children in appreciable numbers. 720 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,239 Speaker 1: Well, this is so fascinating. I want to thank you 721 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 1: both for coming on the podcast. Tell everyone where they 722 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: could read your stuff? First, Crimean, where can't everyone read 723 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,240 Speaker 1: your read your stuff? They want to? It's fascinating stuff. 724 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 3: So you actually go read a recent article man of 725 00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,320 Speaker 3: my subsection yesterday and he disowned this exact subject of 726 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,239 Speaker 3: fertility benefits that seem to work. You can find that 727 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 3: at crime you dot x y z. That's the c 728 00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,360 Speaker 3: R E M I e U x stock. 729 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,000 Speaker 1: X y z. Thank you so and Dana. Where can 730 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:46,800 Speaker 1: I read your stuff? 731 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 2: So my mainly I post on uh on Twitter, uh, 732 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,920 Speaker 2: you know, pronatal ideas and pronatal content at more births. 733 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, also go to this Twitter account all the time 734 00:39:58,520 --> 00:39:58,960 Speaker 1: at arms. 735 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,200 Speaker 2: That's so inspiring that that that. 736 00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,960 Speaker 1: Gives me, Yes, you guys, good information. 737 00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,319 Speaker 2: Wonderful, wonderful, and also more births dot com that that 738 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,120 Speaker 2: I cross post some some things that I that I 739 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,960 Speaker 2: have have posted there and at morebirths dot com. Right now, 740 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,000 Speaker 2: I have this, you know, a publication, a one page 741 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:23,160 Speaker 2: mini book that you can download, which which I present, 742 00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,239 Speaker 2: which I which I brought to the Natalism Conference on 743 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:30,239 Speaker 2: fertility Factors. So that's all coming. 744 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,600 Speaker 1: Great, and thank you all both for being here. You're 745 00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 1: listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky. We'll 746 00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:40,200 Speaker 1: be right back, and that was time for the Ask 747 00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: Me Anything segment of the show. Please send me your 748 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:47,440 Speaker 1: questions on any kind of policy questions, history, culture, book 749 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 1: and movie and music reviews. I'll do my best answer 750 00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,320 Speaker 1: for you. Email Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. 751 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 1: A's Ryan at numbers Plural Game podcast dot com and 752 00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,680 Speaker 1: send them my way. I got a message asking what 753 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 1: will tariffs ultimately play in the midterm elections. That is 754 00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,399 Speaker 1: a great question and it's a big question of all 755 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,600 Speaker 1: these companies. According to CBS News, tons of companies have 756 00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 1: promised to start making manufactur in America to avoid Trump's tariffs. 757 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,480 Speaker 1: Apple was one of them. There's a lot that have 758 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,719 Speaker 1: promised if those jobs come back, it come to America, 759 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,239 Speaker 1: if the market doesn't suffer, and if we don't go 760 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:28,640 Speaker 1: into recession, I think tariffs will be a very small player. 761 00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,520 Speaker 1: I think the biggest problem with the tariff so far 762 00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,200 Speaker 1: has been the messaging because it has been so confusing. 763 00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,760 Speaker 1: It has been all over the place, and I don't 764 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,359 Speaker 1: know the end goal. But if the result of that 765 00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,479 Speaker 1: is we never go into a recession, the stock market's up, 766 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,320 Speaker 1: even if it's slightly up, it's up, and job growth continued, 767 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,440 Speaker 1: and job growth for American citizens, which is not what 768 00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,879 Speaker 1: happened n to Joe Biden, it was mostly immigrants. If 769 00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,799 Speaker 1: job growth for American citizens happens and wages go up, 770 00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,399 Speaker 1: I think you'll be absolutely fine. I think Republican will 771 00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,760 Speaker 1: be absolutely funn will not be the level of chaos 772 00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: that people are that people are predicting right now. We 773 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,399 Speaker 1: are way too early, and we live in you know, 774 00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,839 Speaker 1: a news cycle. By news cycle, everyone's just having knee 775 00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,240 Speaker 1: jerk reactions. That should calm down. We'll see what plays, 776 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,480 Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. Job numbers in April were 777 00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,399 Speaker 1: pretty good. Job growth from American citizens were pretty good. 778 00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,600 Speaker 1: Wages are out four percent. We'll see how that continues 779 00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 1: to play out. But people's anxieties should be calmed, and 780 00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,000 Speaker 1: let's see how if Donald Trump can continue write that 781 00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,279 Speaker 1: ship anyway. Thank you so much everyone for listening this week. 782 00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,080 Speaker 1: I really really appreciate it. I hope you found this podcast interesting. 783 00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,600 Speaker 1: Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 784 00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,719 Speaker 1: wherever you listen to your podcasts. I'll see you all 785 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:40,040 Speaker 1: next week.